WEBVTT 00:02.886 --> 00:03.266 [SPEAKER_01]: Hi folks. 00:03.286 --> 00:04.627 [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the episode of Film Study. 00:04.647 --> 00:09.169 [SPEAKER_01]: This is Kent McCusik and we're going to continue the concerns series today. 00:09.389 --> 00:11.591 [SPEAKER_01]: And we are going to talk about the running back debt. 00:12.191 --> 00:16.393 [SPEAKER_01]: Joining me to do that is our friend Kyle from Reddit, Kyle. 00:16.413 --> 00:16.833 [SPEAKER_01]: How you doing? 00:17.474 --> 00:17.894 [SPEAKER_00]: Hey, Kent. 00:17.934 --> 00:18.414 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm great. 00:18.434 --> 00:20.155 [SPEAKER_00]: We're really looking forward to the season starting. 00:21.128 --> 00:30.535 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, me too, and the Ravens made their cuts, of course yesterday, one surprise in the running back group, but the Ravens running back's now or Derek Henry, Justice Hill and Roshina Ali. 00:31.355 --> 00:37.440 [SPEAKER_01]: Adam Randall will start the year on short-term IR or IR DTR designated to return. 00:37.980 --> 00:45.222 [SPEAKER_01]: He can't play until at least week five, which is a real depressing kind of a situation for me, but let's talk about your concerns. 00:45.662 --> 00:46.942 [SPEAKER_01]: You're the one who asked for this topic. 00:46.982 --> 00:51.203 [SPEAKER_01]: How would you lead us through your problems, your concerns, or the death of this group? 00:51.823 --> 00:52.143 [SPEAKER_00]: Sure. 00:52.183 --> 01:02.766 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, it probably sounds crazy, because the Russian Games have been a strength, like a cornerstone of this team for the entire Lamar Jackson era, and the Ravens have a bunch of coveted NFL records. 01:03.306 --> 01:04.106 [SPEAKER_00]: Records that I didn't think 01:07.587 --> 01:15.797 [SPEAKER_00]: And this concern might seem absolutely crazy considering that right now, if you look at the Vegas odds, the Ravens are favored to lead the entire NFL and rushing yards. 01:15.857 --> 01:26.490 [SPEAKER_00]: But here me out here, I'm really concerned about the Ravenstable of running backs, and I'd like to go through each player one by one and explain what scares me about the situation. 01:27.652 --> 01:30.954 [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, we got to start at the top with the King himself. 01:31.074 --> 01:48.066 [SPEAKER_00]: Derek Henry, Mr. Timeless, I think you probably heard he famously spends a million dollars per year on his body and as a very rigid diet, apparently spends an entire work day from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. in the facility, just focusing on his recovery. 01:48.626 --> 01:55.571 [SPEAKER_00]: And my concern here goes back to a study that was done in 2015 by an organization called Number Fire. 01:56.291 --> 02:05.199 [SPEAKER_00]: and they evaluated the careers of several great running backs across all of history, and they tried to find commonalities in when they fell off. 02:05.719 --> 02:16.529 [SPEAKER_00]: So lots of big names you've got Sean Alexander was there, Lydani and Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, but also not just the elite guys, also very good guys like Clinton, Portus and Willis McGayey. 02:17.090 --> 02:22.975 [SPEAKER_00]: And what they found is it doesn't matter how good or how talented a running back was at their peak. 02:23.525 --> 02:28.190 [SPEAKER_00]: There is a cliff at approximately 1,800 career NFL carries. 02:28.751 --> 02:35.998 [SPEAKER_00]: And once a player crosses that line, their career tends to fall off either that year or sometimes the following year. 02:37.139 --> 02:41.924 [SPEAKER_00]: And what concerns me can is that their canary is at 2,860 career carries right now. 02:45.388 --> 02:51.372 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and and I'll save you the time and look at the list no other active NFL player even comes close. 02:51.412 --> 02:53.734 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think anybody's sort of been in a thousand touches of him. 02:54.894 --> 02:57.556 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so this is this is what I'd ask you. 02:57.576 --> 02:59.878 [SPEAKER_01]: This is clearly your country's clearly an outlier. 03:00.870 --> 03:16.969 [SPEAKER_01]: Who is more like Frank Gore than anybody else who's otherwise on the top 25 probably rushing list, at least that's the way I would take you know baseball I always says the equipment of Nolan Ryan who could still throw as hard as anybody in his early 40s. 03:18.370 --> 03:35.980 [SPEAKER_01]: And you're at a point where the player is such an outlier, you can't evaluate him relative to normal aging curves and normal projections of value over age that you might have for running back or for any NFL player. 03:36.823 --> 03:52.897 [SPEAKER_00]: He's absolutely aging at a different rate, but also, you know, as well as I do, we can't then therefore say that we suspend all expectations of age with him, that that would work looking backwards, but here comes my fear. 03:53.458 --> 03:57.901 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know how much more forward you can keep going with this. 03:59.463 --> 04:03.965 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, $1,000,000 on his body, something about Avocado is before lunch, recovery routine. 04:04.565 --> 04:12.750 [SPEAKER_00]: If the studies to be believed, the fall off for a normal person should have started two seasons ago, and it would continue to accelerate this season. 04:13.573 --> 04:15.755 [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, is it happening? 04:16.716 --> 04:22.100 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, his stats in 2025 debt were down categorically compared to 2024. 04:22.140 --> 04:28.746 [SPEAKER_00]: He had about 20 fewer rushing yards for game of a 5% reduction in rushing success rate. 04:29.546 --> 04:32.909 [SPEAKER_00]: He also lost 0.7 yards per rush, but also, 04:33.970 --> 04:46.405 [SPEAKER_00]: That's muddy because the offensive line was better in healthier in 2024 and so it was a large accident and I think that matters too because the teams can stack the box against back up quarterbacks but they can't do that against a large accident, he'll kill him. 04:46.791 --> 04:51.734 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I do think those, those two things are the exact central issues in terms of the drop off. 04:52.114 --> 04:54.856 [SPEAKER_01]: I didn't think Henry's, Henry's season was a tremendous drop off. 04:54.896 --> 04:57.718 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm also fairly measured in what I'd expect him to do this year. 04:58.438 --> 05:02.501 [SPEAKER_01]: A lot of people are expecting a minimum of 15 or I think that's the least you could get kind of thing. 05:02.801 --> 05:04.262 [SPEAKER_01]: I hear from people regularly. 05:05.022 --> 05:08.444 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't believe that, you know, 11, 1200 yards is certainly a possibility. 05:09.525 --> 05:14.468 [SPEAKER_01]: And, and lower than that is a possibility if he were to get hurt or other things sort of happen. 05:15.088 --> 05:38.481 [SPEAKER_01]: Um, I do think this is a team that has an absolutely Eden-like circumstance for Derek Henry specifically with the combination of Lamar Jackson, uh, Dwayne Ledford, a run game coordinator who, uh, you know, is, is very good at getting people level to first contact opportunities are running backs coach and Eddie Faulkner that is the ultimate, um, tackle 05:41.703 --> 05:52.366 [SPEAKER_01]: And he's coming off a year where one of the biggest things that was down about his play in terms of his individual play was his inability to break tackles. 05:52.626 --> 05:55.346 [SPEAKER_01]: And that was at his worst level since his rookie season. 05:56.266 --> 06:00.407 [SPEAKER_01]: Faulkner, I believe, will be a significant improvement to him in that category. 06:00.727 --> 06:06.949 [SPEAKER_01]: And all that put together, even though I think that the circumstances are about as optimal as they could be for Derek Henry playing here, 06:07.429 --> 06:13.863 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm still not buying into the notion that 1500 yards is any kind of automatic thing or even probably a, you know, a 50% probability. 06:14.785 --> 06:37.849 [SPEAKER_00]: When you, is it fair for us to add to that list of reasons for positivity that, you know, the Ravens have what is currently as we sit here today before regular season game has been played, a schedule that is considered on the softer side and one that has lighter quarterbacks, where we might find ourselves running the ball in the fourth quarter, whereas Gavot was at two or three years ago, we played 10 teams with winning records. 06:38.479 --> 06:58.125 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so the Ravens have always during the Lamar era, they've been a team that can run on anybody, even the good, the teams that have good rushing defenses and actually having positive game script will tend to drag down some of Henry's per carry effectiveness, I believe, because because teams that will get in there and they'll get very heavy 06:58.865 --> 07:06.987 [SPEAKER_01]: And yes, they still got Lamar, but he's going to face a lot of very heavy boxes even more so if all the Ravens need to do is run out of the clock. 07:07.087 --> 07:20.450 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, you don't want to really take a lot of chances with the Marjacks and the Passer, but when you're faced with the alternative of if you try and defend that you have a much lower chance of defending Derek Henry in the final minutes, you take your chances with the Mar of the Passer. 07:20.930 --> 07:21.130 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. 07:21.410 --> 07:21.610 [SPEAKER_00]: Yep. 07:21.830 --> 07:22.451 [SPEAKER_00]: Totally agree. 07:22.551 --> 07:23.171 [SPEAKER_00]: Totally agree. 07:23.211 --> 07:26.032 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm I'm I'm I'm concerned. 07:26.072 --> 07:28.033 [SPEAKER_00]: This I'm this isn't the panic episode. 07:28.053 --> 07:28.874 [SPEAKER_00]: This is a concern. 07:28.894 --> 07:30.214 [SPEAKER_00]: That's okay. 07:30.374 --> 07:30.895 [SPEAKER_01]: So no no. 07:30.935 --> 07:31.695 [SPEAKER_01]: Hives are broken up. 07:31.715 --> 07:32.775 [SPEAKER_01]: You're not scratching your neck. 07:32.895 --> 07:35.777 [SPEAKER_00]: Why is my ears been bugging me all day, but don't worry. 07:35.837 --> 07:37.057 [SPEAKER_00]: Once the season gets started. 07:37.077 --> 07:38.378 [SPEAKER_00]: I'll be feeling a lot better about it. 07:38.858 --> 07:41.539 [SPEAKER_00]: But also, you know, this study isn't the gospel. 07:41.639 --> 07:50.363 [SPEAKER_00]: It's 10 years old and the NFL's different today than it was in 2015, running back by committee is now much more common. 07:50.843 --> 07:54.865 [SPEAKER_00]: The bell cow days are mostly over with a couple notable exceptions. 07:55.566 --> 08:02.549 [SPEAKER_00]: So in order to update it and it was really only for fantasy football purposes, sports illustrated, took another look. 08:03.029 --> 08:04.590 [SPEAKER_00]: I think this is about two years ago. 08:05.590 --> 08:07.132 [SPEAKER_00]: And they've adjusted the numbers a little bit. 08:07.172 --> 08:21.327 [SPEAKER_00]: They think the cliff is now closer to 2100 career carries, but with a caveat, and that caveat is that by the age of about 27 to 28 years old, a rapid decline begins independent of the number of career carries. 08:22.068 --> 08:25.071 [SPEAKER_00]: And, and as we record this podcast, Derek Henry is 32.66 years old. 08:29.053 --> 08:40.816 [SPEAKER_01]: Young, at least five years past it and it hasn't hit him yet, I'm, you know, Bill James put together a number of play, I put it, it was called a player projection program put together. 08:40.856 --> 08:48.698 [SPEAKER_01]: One of the first ones and that was all kinds of them out there that independently produced what hitting statistics will be for the next year based on aging patterns and whatnot. 08:49.738 --> 09:00.226 [SPEAKER_01]: And there's certain players who really follow the rules very well and they have gradual drop-off and you can project their value very well. 09:00.747 --> 09:09.354 [SPEAKER_01]: And there's that multiple levels of play that fit into that and he had a good diagram where everybody kind of had a curve 09:09.794 --> 09:16.763 [SPEAKER_01]: where they were good enough to play in the major leagues, but the highest curves were good enough to play in the major leagues from like 21 to 40 kind of things. 09:17.063 --> 09:22.650 [SPEAKER_01]: But most players were only good enough to play in the major leagues from 25 to 29 kind of thing. 09:22.671 --> 09:23.892 [SPEAKER_01]: And then they had to be up. 09:23.972 --> 09:27.336 [SPEAKER_01]: But then with really great players, have a much longer time they could play in the league. 09:27.837 --> 09:36.745 [SPEAKER_01]: Derek Henry under that construct is a very high curve and you know I was very lukewarm on the acquisition of Derek Henry. 09:37.766 --> 09:40.328 [SPEAKER_01]: I was I didn't think it was a great signing at the money. 09:40.368 --> 09:44.151 [SPEAKER_01]: I thought that boy I mean, with our Jackson's gotten great value out of everybody. 09:44.571 --> 09:54.280 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it did turn out and our Jackson got even more outstanding play of the Derek Henry than he got from Gus Edwards who was the career all-time career leader as you know in success rate when he left the 09:55.218 --> 09:55.398 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. 09:56.179 --> 09:56.359 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. 09:56.519 --> 09:56.899 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. 09:56.999 --> 09:57.620 [SPEAKER_00]: I look in. 09:57.720 --> 10:01.322 [SPEAKER_00]: I like your outlook a lot more than I like my outlook. 10:01.342 --> 10:12.450 [SPEAKER_00]: But but ultimately, whether it's this year or six years from now, the clock is going to strike midnight and historically speaking, we are in fact out of time, Henry just continues to defy history. 10:13.051 --> 10:13.231 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. 10:13.351 --> 10:14.251 [SPEAKER_01]: Bob, I'm with you there. 10:14.351 --> 10:16.433 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's do you have problems with the rest of the running back roster? 10:16.743 --> 10:18.344 [SPEAKER_00]: I, yeah, yeah, I'm not done. 10:18.364 --> 10:19.104 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't worry. 10:19.204 --> 10:21.185 [SPEAKER_00]: Next, next is Justice Hill. 10:21.265 --> 10:24.767 [SPEAKER_00]: And he's a great example of something I think the Ravens do as an institution. 10:24.827 --> 10:31.130 [SPEAKER_00]: He's, he was drafted as a running back, but he wasn't quite good enough to, to earn any touches at his native position. 10:31.170 --> 10:34.731 [SPEAKER_00]: So he made his mark on the roster's special teams contributor. 10:34.771 --> 10:36.672 [SPEAKER_00]: And he's been a gunner. 10:36.732 --> 10:38.773 [SPEAKER_00]: He's worked kick coverage. 10:39.314 --> 10:44.256 [SPEAKER_00]: But back in 2023, they transitioned him into our receiving running back. 10:44.776 --> 10:45.737 [SPEAKER_00]: And you know that because his A. 10:45.777 --> 11:04.814 [SPEAKER_00]: Dot is negative, which means he's catching balls pretty much right at the line of skirmish and he's averaging 8 to 10 yac per season, which with that's getting the job done and that's that's fine with me can his cap it over the last two seasons is only about 2.5 million you can't have pro bowlers at every single position sometimes you just need veterans to do their job. 11:05.475 --> 11:15.924 [SPEAKER_00]: But my concern with him is he turns 29 years old this season, which means we've probably already seen the best that justice hill has to offer. 11:16.544 --> 11:19.607 [SPEAKER_00]: The upside is pretty limited and there's downside risk. 11:19.767 --> 11:27.633 [SPEAKER_00]: He's nowhere near the 1800 or 2100 carry threshold, but the list of running backs who hit their stride at 29 years old is very short. 11:28.814 --> 11:37.677 [SPEAKER_00]: And my other concern is that if Derek Henry gets hurt, I don't think you can just start handing the ball off to just his hill like nothing changed. 11:37.777 --> 11:53.082 [SPEAKER_00]: Because his game is past-bocking, catching dump offs and screens, and when he gets carries, which is only about two or three per game or last couple of years, it's usually to stretch the field horizontally of like an outside zone run or a toss or a sweep. 11:53.681 --> 12:03.272 [SPEAKER_01]: completely agree by the way, not a bell cow that's not his game and the Ravens really needed that last year, but I think we've got it this year when Adam Randall returns. 12:03.733 --> 12:10.901 [SPEAKER_01]: I didn't really believe in, although I think it would have been the case that Roshina Ali would have taken over as the bell cow, even with Keith Mitchell present last year. 12:11.922 --> 12:15.384 [SPEAKER_01]: to take a significant number of carries head Henry going down. 12:15.444 --> 12:17.805 [SPEAKER_01]: But I think now they've got their guy. 12:17.825 --> 12:22.467 [SPEAKER_01]: They've got another guy, another big high-cut guy actually looks very similar to Derek Henry. 12:24.268 --> 12:33.212 [SPEAKER_01]: He's not quite as bulky or big up top, but he's a very big man in Adam Randall who can hopefully bring some of those same Bill Cal traits. 12:33.873 --> 12:37.735 [SPEAKER_00]: I think they're going to use the DTR designation on a rookie 12:38.902 --> 12:41.342 [SPEAKER_01]: 100% chance that you get eight in a year. 12:41.462 --> 12:45.363 [SPEAKER_01]: So the DTRs are only used when you bring the guy off of IR. 12:45.623 --> 12:52.004 [SPEAKER_01]: So you put a bunch of guys, I'm sure you could have splatter the wall with IRs if this is a nasty way to put it like that. 12:52.024 --> 12:53.145 [SPEAKER_00]: We've had those years, Ken. 12:53.505 --> 12:56.925 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you might have 12 guys on IR. 12:57.405 --> 12:59.746 [SPEAKER_01]: And they're, they're, they're a, they've all been put under in the season. 12:59.766 --> 13:01.566 [SPEAKER_01]: And then you DTR them only when they return. 13:01.586 --> 13:03.046 [SPEAKER_01]: That's when you use one of your eight. 13:03.827 --> 13:05.367 [SPEAKER_01]: So the Ravens had, 13:07.267 --> 13:20.112 [SPEAKER_01]: One of the ones they had that was fairly notorious was a couple of years ago, and I'm trying to remember who the player was, they were trying to bring him back at the end of the year, and they brought him back prophylatically, because he was their last DTR guy they had in the season. 13:20.692 --> 13:22.293 [SPEAKER_00]: So was that anybody else to use it on, right? 13:22.333 --> 13:35.098 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, nobody else to use it on, nobody else was returning from their injury, everybody else was either done for the season or not hurt yet, and you know, there's a four week weight, so you get into a week like 15, your DTR's, your short-term IR doesn't mean anything anymore. 13:35.678 --> 13:51.531 [SPEAKER_01]: So they had a guy who they brought back and he started his practice window and then he had to be activated within three weeks and then they had a revert to season ending I are after that and they did that once you start practicing and that's actually when you use the one of your DTRs. 13:51.772 --> 13:57.396 [SPEAKER_01]: So they used the last one on him and then they were out but they typically they didn't run out in a single year. 13:57.416 --> 14:02.000 [SPEAKER_01]: They just started that many injuries that people come back from during the year 14:04.631 --> 14:05.432 [SPEAKER_00]: Sure, that's true. 14:05.672 --> 14:28.911 [SPEAKER_00]: I would love to see Randall again because Randall, honestly, Randall is who I was prepared to talk about today, but surprise, whether he's being stashed or whether he was actually hurt in the game against the commanders, are number three running back now as Rashina Lee and Ken, you're in action where I see you really like hard numbers, but there's just not a lot to work with here, he's 14:29.612 --> 14:32.553 [SPEAKER_00]: got 123 scrimmage yards in two seasons. 14:33.153 --> 14:36.194 [SPEAKER_00]: He found a bit of a spot on special teams last year. 14:36.274 --> 14:39.095 [SPEAKER_00]: So he might be following the Justice Hill career path. 14:39.655 --> 14:44.076 [SPEAKER_00]: But when it comes to running the football, he didn't do anything exciting in preseason last year. 14:44.517 --> 14:46.237 [SPEAKER_00]: He was considered a possible roster cut. 14:46.617 --> 14:49.938 [SPEAKER_00]: He barely played this preseason and didn't jump off the screen when he did. 14:50.018 --> 14:52.019 [SPEAKER_00]: And again, considered a roster cut. 14:52.559 --> 15:09.419 [SPEAKER_01]: Can did you see anything special in practice that we would not have seen that that makes you say yeah machine Ali is legitimate here I would say that rushing I'll lead it not show anything like that and you know he is a. 15:12.215 --> 15:21.181 [SPEAKER_01]: That's so few touches career as you indicate with the 120 or whatever it was yards, there's very little put out except for a couple splash plays and what he's done as a splash player. 15:21.201 --> 15:23.582 [SPEAKER_01]: I'd say has been more as a receiver than as a runner. 15:23.602 --> 15:29.186 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, this game, we left a half time to have a child in this game, doesn't anything bad about that. 15:29.206 --> 15:30.567 [SPEAKER_01]: And congratulations, Rushy. 15:30.587 --> 15:31.848 [SPEAKER_01]: And we, we, we, we, yes. 15:32.268 --> 15:39.512 [SPEAKER_01]: But in nine carries for 28 yards, he did lose a big play to a flag that was that was returned. 15:39.532 --> 15:42.994 [SPEAKER_01]: It might have been the unnecessary roughness flag or it might have been one of the holding calls. 15:43.014 --> 15:44.014 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure which it was. 15:44.754 --> 15:47.256 [SPEAKER_01]: But he lost a big a big play to that. 15:48.836 --> 15:51.278 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's just that that many total touches. 15:52.323 --> 15:57.785 [SPEAKER_01]: Randall was much more impressive physically than Ali this summer, and Ali missed a fair amount of time. 15:57.925 --> 15:59.305 [SPEAKER_01]: He missed a fair amount of practice time. 15:59.325 --> 16:00.885 [SPEAKER_01]: So, the simple answer is no. 16:01.105 --> 16:01.666 [SPEAKER_01]: There was no. 16:01.746 --> 16:18.470 [SPEAKER_00]: But even with missed practice time, you know, at a certain point in your third preseason, if you're going to deliver something to a team, you've got to do better than what nine rushes for 23 yards against backups, it's got to look better than that. 16:22.198 --> 16:25.239 [SPEAKER_01]: And, but the Ravens apparently, I look at the Randall injury. 16:25.259 --> 16:26.299 [SPEAKER_01]: I didn't see anything happen. 16:26.419 --> 16:34.321 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's a stash for what it's worth, but I think the Ravens were kind of boxed into a position where they needed one more running back and decided to be Ali. 16:34.381 --> 16:36.541 [SPEAKER_01]: And there's not really another choice. 16:36.561 --> 16:38.602 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he gives him a little bit on kickoff returns. 16:39.222 --> 16:41.203 [SPEAKER_01]: Henry's gonna get most of the touches. 16:41.283 --> 16:43.623 [SPEAKER_01]: Hill will get a lot of the third downs. 16:43.863 --> 16:46.044 [SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, it's recently, it's two years ago. 16:46.064 --> 16:46.524 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it was 20. 16:47.564 --> 16:48.045 [SPEAKER_01]: 24. 16:48.065 --> 16:48.325 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. 16:48.365 --> 16:53.730 [SPEAKER_01]: The Ravens didn't have a RB3 carry until week 15. 16:55.411 --> 16:58.434 [SPEAKER_00]: So maybe that's why Keaton Mitchell's gone. 16:58.454 --> 17:00.056 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, he won't get an opportunity. 17:01.563 --> 17:14.786 [SPEAKER_00]: Um, so, so Ken, when you ask about what are my concerns about the 2026 Ravens, we're counting on a 32 and a half year old running back to not just defy the age and workload slope for his position. 17:14.806 --> 17:17.267 [SPEAKER_00]: We're asking him to do it for a third season in a row. 17:17.887 --> 17:21.828 [SPEAKER_00]: And the guys behind him are not made to fill that role. 17:22.348 --> 17:24.729 [SPEAKER_00]: Running between the tackles isn't just a Hills game. 17:25.489 --> 17:29.730 [SPEAKER_00]: And going in the year number three, I still don't know what Rashena Lee's game is. 17:31.942 --> 17:40.825 [SPEAKER_01]: I think your concerns are entirely justified on the age of hill and I'll be being a non-factor or never being able to take a bill cow roll. 17:41.625 --> 17:47.187 [SPEAKER_01]: I think a lot of the depth of this comes down to how soon is Adam Randl going to be back and I don't know the nature of the injury. 17:47.927 --> 17:48.908 [SPEAKER_01]: I just know that I think 17:50.068 --> 17:57.612 [SPEAKER_01]: I think I know that it was a actual injury and not some sort of a stash move because it doesn't make sense to stash move. 17:58.012 --> 18:04.895 [SPEAKER_01]: The two IRDTR spots the Ravens had were among them with valuable possessions going into yesterday and are used to what I'm one rental. 18:04.915 --> 18:10.318 [SPEAKER_01]: They wouldn't have you done it unless there was a need to take one of those spots. 18:10.358 --> 18:11.799 [SPEAKER_01]: But they had, you know, they had other guys, they 18:15.220 --> 18:19.864 [SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, they're, they're other players in the team, they're potentially Buchanan could have taken one. 18:19.884 --> 18:32.916 [SPEAKER_01]: And either of them still might go to that, but had they taken one yesterday, they would have actually conserved another player who could be saved through on the roster, potentially could have been Cory Bullock, who could have been bigger, a good, a bit of guy they kept. 18:33.376 --> 18:35.698 [SPEAKER_00]: Who we just lost to the Carolina Panthers, unfortunately. 18:35.918 --> 18:36.479 [SPEAKER_01]: That's right. 18:36.499 --> 18:37.019 [SPEAKER_01]: That's right. 18:37.039 --> 18:37.760 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah. 18:39.424 --> 18:45.866 [SPEAKER_00]: But Ken, I want to finish on a positive note because I do believe that the 2026 Ravens are gonna be a very good team. 18:46.807 --> 18:55.150 [SPEAKER_00]: The first podcast you and I did, it was applying economic principles to football and the principal we spent most of our time talking about was the efficient market theory. 18:56.010 --> 19:01.892 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's the idea that everyone already knows what positions have the strongest correlation to winning football games. 19:02.712 --> 19:04.093 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not a secret and because of that, 19:04.653 --> 19:07.555 [SPEAKER_00]: those positions get drafted early, they get paid the most. 19:08.375 --> 19:12.677 [SPEAKER_00]: And running back is whether you agree with it or not, it's at the bottom of that list. 19:13.457 --> 19:20.381 [SPEAKER_00]: And the efficient market's theory says that GMs have discovered that the offensive line tends to dictate the success of the running game. 19:20.841 --> 19:34.525 [SPEAKER_00]: more than an individual running back does, and while I'm not in love with every offensive line decision we've made this year, I do believe it is in a better place entering 2026 than it was entering 2025. 19:35.345 --> 19:37.186 [SPEAKER_00]: And you know what can, if we get into the season, 19:38.006 --> 19:42.628 [SPEAKER_00]: And we discover that we've got a serious problem running backs are cheap and plentiful. 19:43.208 --> 19:45.549 [SPEAKER_00]: You talk about a size and shape pool. 19:46.730 --> 19:52.212 [SPEAKER_00]: If you have to triage a position in the middle of the season, this would be the easiest and least painful one to do. 19:52.813 --> 19:53.833 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would agree. 19:53.873 --> 19:55.814 [SPEAKER_01]: I think, you know, there's lots of opportunities. 19:55.834 --> 20:02.417 [SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of guys who just got cut yesterday who, you know, would make perfectly reasonable running back alternatives. 20:02.477 --> 20:04.398 [SPEAKER_01]: I'll leave has a little bit of special teams experience. 20:04.418 --> 20:05.579 [SPEAKER_01]: So I understand. 20:05.859 --> 20:08.800 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not, I'm not wedded, you know, what's going on. 20:08.820 --> 20:11.742 [SPEAKER_01]: I also was okay with cutting justice hill for the 4.1 million. 20:13.323 --> 20:18.730 [SPEAKER_01]: Actually, I think it was about 3.1 million in this case. 20:18.830 --> 20:28.263 [SPEAKER_01]: It was a lot to pass up to keep Hill when you could have had a rookie back, and hopefully one who could do a little bit of pass-bocking instead. 20:29.128 --> 20:38.498 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, you know that the big savings decisions have already been made, so you've got to make the differences in the margins and I do think, you know, we'll call it three and a half million. 20:40.060 --> 20:49.410 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that Justice Hill at his age and what he's done in his careers is worth three and a half million compared to, you know, some other players we could take a flyer on, but. 20:50.271 --> 21:00.946 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, he's got institutional knowledge, Jackson's comfortable with him, and he's been a rave him for a long time, and I like his career arc, so I'm cheering for him, even if I wish the cap it was a little lighter. 21:01.396 --> 21:03.959 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, I'm with you entirely on that. 21:04.519 --> 21:07.502 [SPEAKER_01]: Kyle, you do fantastic work coming on this. 21:07.522 --> 21:13.989 [SPEAKER_01]: The last time, by the way, that economic spot, football and economics, I think it's called, is really worth the listen. 21:14.289 --> 21:16.752 [SPEAKER_01]: It was a incredibly fun discussion. 21:17.252 --> 21:19.235 [SPEAKER_01]: And Kyle talked to me about an advance. 21:19.255 --> 21:22.218 [SPEAKER_01]: He didn't think he was going to be prepared enough, and the truth of the matter was, 21:22.778 --> 21:29.166 [SPEAKER_01]: I can't imagine somebody being more prepared for that, and I think you've done the same thing with this running back analysis as well. 21:29.446 --> 21:30.307 [SPEAKER_01]: Fantastic stuff. 21:30.687 --> 21:39.818 [SPEAKER_01]: Is there any where people can, if they go out to the Reddit community or are they, are you likely to be lurking at least and seeing what they are. 21:41.159 --> 21:43.461 [SPEAKER_00]: Yep, I absolutely participate on Reddit. 21:43.621 --> 21:45.842 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not here to put my name out or anything like that. 21:45.882 --> 21:54.667 [SPEAKER_00]: I love being anonymous But if you know how to talk football and you're hanging out in the Ravens subreddit I guarantee you and I've gone back a couple back and forth a couple times already 21:55.285 --> 21:55.985 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, very cool. 21:56.025 --> 22:07.092 [SPEAKER_01]: Great subreddit, by the way, really worth the time to go over there and meet the people that got a very significant layer of fans who are at a very high level of discussion about football. 22:07.112 --> 22:13.996 [SPEAKER_01]: And I really appreciate it being more and more involved in that over about the last year, but you guys have been great other folks out there. 22:14.176 --> 22:18.099 [SPEAKER_01]: Let me tell you, use film studying me on a bag of Gmail.com for your questions, really appreciate it. 22:18.119 --> 22:19.079 [SPEAKER_01]: I'll get it to the right show. 22:19.499 --> 22:21.441 [SPEAKER_01]: Always if you would like and subscribe and also. 22:22.642 --> 22:25.105 [SPEAKER_01]: suggest this show to one additional person. 22:25.145 --> 22:26.506 [SPEAKER_01]: That's what I really ask you to do. 22:26.546 --> 22:39.721 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, has to grow by a word of mouth and I appreciate all that you folks who are incredibly loyal and can remember everything I've said it seems like for the last eight years, I appreciate you very much and we'll talk to you soon on film study.