[SPEAKER_01]: Alright everybody welcome back to the crypto run down while we continue to be in a range for Bitcoin and other crypto's and the fear and greed index continues to be in fear There is still a lot of bullish narratives building underneath the surface.
[SPEAKER_01]: You saw the title.
[SPEAKER_01]: You saw the thumbnail hedge funds Including to the CME data are going long.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're gonna break that down and much much more in this episode.
[SPEAKER_01]: What does it mean for you?
[SPEAKER_01]: What does it mean for your investing process as we continue along this range, but we see data
[SPEAKER_01]: like the CME going long, hedge funds going long on Bitcoin, uh, bit my timely continuing to buy Ethereum bank of America coming out in the giving a 4% allocation to crypto.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, the narratives keep building underneath this stagnant flat market.
[SPEAKER_01]: Brendan, welcome back to the show.
[SPEAKER_01]: Happy Tuesday to you.
[SPEAKER_01]: How are you, my friend?
[SPEAKER_00]: Happy Tuesday, man.
[SPEAKER_00]: Good to see everyone.
[SPEAKER_00]: Good to be here with all of
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, lots of talk about a lot of good catalysts here.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, stoked to be back.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know Crypto's getting a little bit of a pullback here.
[SPEAKER_00]: Today, yesterday is this week is kicked off, but, Mano, there are a bunch of good catalysts on the horizon.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely and as we'll start you can see we have coin market cap just a quick look at where we are you know again pretty flat on the day pretty flat across the seven day two for you know down one percent seven day on the coin base twenty or sorry the coin market cap twenty Bitcoin and then again the fear and greed for least for this metric still in fear quite a quite a month for fear extreme fear last month so
[SPEAKER_01]: as we continue to kind of parse through the news and see what's going on.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Brendan you put this in our team chat I saw it online as well and it definitely stuck out to me that hedge funds on the CME are now net long on BTC
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... this happened in april twenty five march twenty six and in both instances bitcoin rally thirty percent or more so again as we kind of collectively if you listen to the show consistently we kind of making the cases like okay we got a gather the data we got to see what's going on uh... but it definitely feels like as negative as the price action has been the uh... underlying news underlying momentum of the fundamentals seems to be getting more positive and this is another data point you could add to that list
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it is and I think what we're seeing here and we'll talk about this later on in the week for all the reoccurring listeners will probably talk about it on Thursday in the TA segment, but I think we are seeing signs of bearish exhaustion and
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, that doesn't mean that we can't go lower.
[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't mean price can't go down.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that there are at least early signs of Baris exhaustion.
[SPEAKER_00]: And what you're seeing here is that even the hedge funds that were on the CME are now going long, net long Bitcoin, excuse me.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're right, you know, this is something that we saw back in April of 2025, which was the bottom of the tariff crash.
[SPEAKER_00]: We saw it in March of 2026, which was just kind of that local bottom that Bitcoin had before rallying, you know, about 30 plus percent, and also when equities bottomed as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so now we're kind of back here.
[SPEAKER_00]: You have Bitcoin which tied the lows at the start of July, end of June for the third time, just around that 60 k area, and then you have it kind of rallying and often, even at the time of making this Bitcoin still,
[SPEAKER_00]: above those lows that it touched in February, May and June and in July as well, and we're still above those levels.
[SPEAKER_00]: So now they're kind of looking at this and saying, okay, well, from October up through basically February and then again in June and July, Bitcoin had just been going down and trending down.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now what you've seen in the last couple of months is that it's not really trending lower anymore.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is at least since February held on to that rough area around the low 60,000s, high 50,000s, and it really hasn't broke too convincingly deeper than that.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think what people are doing here is they're looking at this as an area of opportunity.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's kind of what the se saying is that maybe there are number one signs of various exhaustion.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's something that you can see some early signs of.
[SPEAKER_00]: But...
[SPEAKER_00]: thing on the flip side here, you're at least seeing a somewhat rare occurrence.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like we see this every day, every week, every month.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like maybe you see this once or twice a year based on the historical data that we have.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you see this like once or twice a year where you get hedge funds that are going net long Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I like this here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that people are looking and saying, if they're going net long, and my brain what that says is that they see limited downside risk,
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's kind of the way that we're positioning over here, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, could Bitcoin go lower.
[SPEAKER_00]: It absolutely could.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's something that is still on the table.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not in this raging bull market and full of you for you yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you stopped to be careful of the downside risk.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what is that downside risk?
[SPEAKER_00]: And how are people looking at it?
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think people are looking at it and saying, well, at the current prices with Bitcoin and the low 60,000s.
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe you could add ETH to this and say, ETH at 1800.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think people are looking here and saying, okay, well, do we want to be short?
[SPEAKER_00]: at a $60,000 bit coin, or do we want to be long, and you're seeing at least on the CME, a lot of the hedge funds are saying, hey, with Bitcoin at $60,000, we think that we've probably juiced about as much as we could get out of it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now we think that there's more upside-risk than downside risk, and I think that's why they're kind of flipping over here.
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, if you are a bull, again, this is not like, oh my gosh, this is an absolute bottom sign, but I think you're getting more fuel in that are you meant to say, hey, is there more risk to the upside or downside?
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that the data is starting to shift a little bit to say, hey, there's probably more upside risk when you look at those longer time horizons.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a great point and I don't have much to add to that other than I can blow this up if people want to close to look at that chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: You kind of take the data points and then again you kind of look around in the space and say okay well what are the big dogs doing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it a fight or flight type of time again when when price action gets rocky you see a lot of people obviously sell and then there's the volatility but what are the fundamentals what are people saying what are people more importantly what are people building.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and I got a couple quick hitters here.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll just rough our throughout three in a row here, and then we can kind of break it down is a Trump media company and technology obviously a little bit of a polarizing company there, but they disclose the Bitcoin Treasury of over $900 million, which that is, that's a fair amount for a copy of the obviously the
[SPEAKER_01]: the stakeholders in that have closed ties to the White House.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, as we we've talked about on the show many times is we're looking for some action here.
[SPEAKER_01]: If the clarity acts not going, what can this administration gets on with crypto and we've kind of made the case and had tons of interviews recently that the clarity acts not necessary for crypto to keep moving forward, but there is there is things that do need to happen over the next two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, again, this type of stuff when, you know, somebody's close to the White House there and their family has over 900 million in Bitcoin, you got to think maybe there'd be a push for some type of Bitcoin legislation.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we all kind of lean towards the strategic reserve, but yet we have seen nothing so, and no nothing, so we can't really speculate on that or hope for that, but there's some more, I'd say, more official and more bright things on the horizon with Bank of America.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bank of America officially recommends that clients allocate up to 4% of their portfolio into Bitcoin and crypto.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then finally this week, friends of the show Robin Hood launched crypto trading in the UK.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you kind of take this, you know, these kind of quick hitters and you're looking around saying, okay, there's, you know, some heavy hitters investing, robin a leader in the space, continuing to build Bank of America, getting more involved, telling their own clients.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm correct me if I'm wrong, Brendan, but I don't even think Bank of America necessarily has a Bitcoin product per se, like a Morgan Stanley BlackRock, they're just saying, hey, this is a space that we're watching and it doesn't look like it's going away.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, this is going to be an interesting one because again, we're seeing crypto expansion kind of across the board and this is just another step towards that direction I think when you want to know where the ball is heading you have to look at things like this and it's very clear at least one thing has been made clear it's that the more traditional side of finance.
[SPEAKER_00]: has set up long-term infrastructure and with that long-term bets on crypto.
[SPEAKER_00]: You see the funds that have millions, if not billions inside of them.
[SPEAKER_00]: You see the ETFs, you see the tokenized funds, you see the overall infrastructure that they have built out.
[SPEAKER_00]: They have all these different products, they've hired all different positions.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's very clear that they are positioning for the long-term, and you do not position something for the long-term with billions of dollars.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you are not somewhat optimistic about it, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: If you didn't think that there would be growth and return on investment, the companies that have the most money arguably probably the most advanced talent and intelligent talent and the people who have the most
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, thorough insights.
[SPEAKER_00]: If they are making these decisions, it is calculated.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not just talking, you know, obviously Robinhood is a big one here in the one that we're talking about, but I think it's a continuing trend here of the black rocks, the fiddellities, the van-ax, the swabs, the, you know, you name it, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: The Merrill Lynch, everyone that's getting into this stuff now or has been in this.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so Robinhood, just,
[SPEAKER_00]: furthering this idea that this is a process and it will continue to expand, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that's what people are looking for here is how is the infrastructure being set up and then how will it and how can it expand and this is just the next stage and that expansion is saying oh, you know, we can give the United Kingdom it and then I know one of the big things that people want from Robin Hood which
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm excited about all right, you know, maybe I'm a bit biased because I'm a Robin Hood bull.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the other thing is saying, hey, when can we get a lot of these tokenized stocks?
[SPEAKER_00]: And when can we get a lot of these new features inside the United States?
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that market isn't even open up yet to some of these different asset categories as they relate to crypto.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so there's a lot of stuff on the horizon.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you think that we have reached maximum reach or maximum availability of all these different products, you're very wrong.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's so much more that can come.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's an ever-growing process.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we love to see it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and then I saw something about the bank of Russia approving a little bit about that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, Bitcoin, so the bank of Russia proves trading of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and U.S. D.T.
[SPEAKER_01]: But not XRP.
[SPEAKER_01]: We know the XRP Army is not going to be happy about that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe more to come.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the Russia Central Bank proposed the first time in its framework, letting ordinary investors trade crypto and public markets.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is definitely new, because I know we've covered on the show in years past of how Russia and,
[SPEAKER_01]: China and a lot of other countries didn't want their people participating in these type of markets, trying to figure out how to kind of guard rail it, especially in some of the more communist countries.
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, it moves forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, I don't think this is a huge necessarily like quittedy catalyst in my mind, but it's just it shows you where this is all leading to adoption around the world as we continue to see that grow and go.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 100% man.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, it fits into the exact theme we were just talking about.
[SPEAKER_00]: This stuff will expand, crypto is an industry.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it is in the process of expanding.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, listen, if it can penetrate into, you know, something like Russian and they're willing to do stuff like this.
[SPEAKER_00]: I continued to think that it's going global.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was talking to actually a younger guy, the younger investor.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, probably a week or two ago, and he actually wasn't too familiar or indecripped, though.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like he was negative about it, but he just wasn't really in the space.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he does more traditional investing.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's like, you really think that this stuff's going to continue to grow.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, you think it's going to be able to have a comeback and do all these things.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's absolutely like, that's my belief in time will tell.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that this is very telling of that bigger picture, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's hard to see stuff like that happen and not think that there's going to be some sort of implications in the future.
[SPEAKER_00]: We go through periods where there's ups and downs, there's peaks and troughs, and
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, historically speaking, cryptos kind of always come out of that.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think there's the biggest disconnect that we have seen, maybe the biggest disconnect that we have seen and cryptos history.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I first did reports on crypto back.
[SPEAKER_00]: And like, when I was in high school to you, though, I mean, it was like 2012 or something like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I did reports on Bitcoin then.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then I started doing, you know, cryptos stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, on a consistent basis, back in like 2017, so almost a decade ago.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that throughout all of this, this might be the most disconnected that the crypto market has ever been.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because you have this insane amount of infrastructure that's being built.
[SPEAKER_00]: You have a wild amount of adoption and backing from the most large and powerful places on the planet.
[SPEAKER_00]: And yet despite that, you have crypto as an underperforming asset class, despite it putting up probably some of the most impressive feeds
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, never seen coming.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think prior to this.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that's where I stand.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I think that the infrastructure and the positioning here has been wild and I don't think that that's something that's been priced in yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, my opinion, not financial advice, but I think that there's a large disconnect between the way that the big money smart money giant whale investors and institutions are positioning themselves and then there's a disconnect between all of them.
[SPEAKER_00]: and how crypto is being currently priced and anticipated as kind of its role in the future.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm excited.
[SPEAKER_00]: That kind of thing excites me, and I know people get frustrated and they get bored, but at least for me, I find it exciting.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think, and you add in the intersection of crypto and AI, the narrative that's been building.
[SPEAKER_01]: You could make that case and I know our team and Bryce agrees with you because, again, the biggest buying opportunity right now before crypto's next big move webinar that Bryce has been working on for a while.
[SPEAKER_01]: Eres are always going live.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a live webinar this Thursday.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you want to make sure that you sign up for that before 11 AM PST on Thursday.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we have a link below if anybody's interested in tuning in and listening to Bryce live.
[SPEAKER_01]: Check it out.
[SPEAKER_01]: We put the link there in the description.
[SPEAKER_01]: The webinar is going to cover the convergence of AI and crypto.
[SPEAKER_01]: And kind of like Brendan said, it's like, hey, the disconnect is here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we're going to kind of lay out that case.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's more of a deep dive.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you like the podcast on like Bryce.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're going to want to check that out.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a full deep dive with him live on Thursday.
[SPEAKER_01]: Check the link below.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can sign up for that.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is completely free.
[SPEAKER_01]: As we move on the rundown, we want to say hi to everybody in the chat.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got a Liverpool Atom, a TOM from Liverpool,
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, out in so cow.
[SPEAKER_01]: I wasn't so cow.
[SPEAKER_01]: The O.C.
[SPEAKER_01]: Fair this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: Super fun time.
[SPEAKER_01]: Anybody else in the chat.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let us know where you're, where you're listening in from.
[SPEAKER_01]: We always appreciate everybody tuning in.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, it's Tuesday.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's another day.
[SPEAKER_01]: And as the days go by, we always know that Tom Lee continues to buy
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... we know that uh... you know the drama around micro strategy and sailor and they're preferred stock of selling bitcoin and buying their own preferred stock to try to get it back to par uh... haven't heard any two negative things from the uh... preferred bit mind stock yet but tomley just continuing to buy eat yeah
[SPEAKER_00]: This is how I feel like it should be for treasury companies.
[SPEAKER_00]: They should be continually buying eat, and especially, especially when the market's down TV, when the market's down 50, 60%, 40%, I don't care.
[SPEAKER_00]: If the market is down 40% to 60%, maybe more, maybe even less than that.
[SPEAKER_00]: a treasury company should be buying low and I'm actually okay with the idea of them selling higher.
[SPEAKER_00]: What I don't like and I've been outspoken about this.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to go into a full rant today, but you should not be selling low and trying to buy high.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm okay with buying high.
[SPEAKER_00]: Don't get me wrong.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you shouldn't be selling low with the feet of the point of a treasury company.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I really like this out of Tom Lee and Bitmind, where they're saying, hey, we're going
[SPEAKER_00]: We have the thesis, we've talked about it, we believe in it, we see the data, we see the vision, we're going to buy, we're going to buy every single week, it's been over a year now, and they're still buying every week.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now sometimes it's larger, sometimes it's smaller, that's normal, that happens.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I like this here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so again, 58 straight weeks of purchases, it's a great thing to see.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I think that that's kind of the mindset that you need to have if you're a treasury company, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Lead by example.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I really like this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I love the Tom Lee just sticking with the program as they say.
[SPEAKER_01]: You brought something this show for stablecoins.
[SPEAKER_01]: Seeing a lot of spending volumes on stablecoins.
[SPEAKER_01]: All that you break that down.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, this is an interesting one, because stablecoin growth as a whole has been another just parabolic sector.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, stablecoins continue to grow, they continue to hit records, they are doing and performing exceptionally.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, one of the ways that we can track this is through stable queen card spending, right, and the volumes that come with those.
[SPEAKER_00]: And this thing surged another 16% in July to a record 1.03 billion.
[SPEAKER_00]: What this report says is that, you know, this marks 200% year over
[SPEAKER_00]: year volume growth, with over 10 million purchases made in July alone, which is a wild thing to see.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're seeing this being accessed in 60 plus different countries with a 68% volume coming from non-US based users, which is also a really interesting thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: When you think of card spending, I think the average person probably their brain goes to the US and say, oh, that you know, haha.
[SPEAKER_00]: Awesome, Americans, we are those card spenders.
[SPEAKER_00]: We take on the debt, but know what you're seeing here is that actually, almost 70% is coming from overseas, which tells me that there's still a huge addressable market to tap into within the United States, and you're yet to tap into that.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a huge amount of overseas adoption coming out of this stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I mean, if you're looking at this, you got to be bullish.
[SPEAKER_00]: grow.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's why we call it a builder's market, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: The bear markets are builder's markets.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think if you continue to see this stuff, I mean, how many weeks is this going to uptrend for?
[SPEAKER_00]: Before people try to price in this kind of information, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: You got to look at what kind of infrastructure is this being built on?
[SPEAKER_00]: And then how is it going to impact that infrastructure?
[SPEAKER_00]: If you were to see a company, and I know this isn't a perfect comparison to you, though.
[SPEAKER_00]: So bear with me, everyone in the audience.
[SPEAKER_00]: to straw man this, if you were to see a company that had a subsector that was just exploding within it, or they're an infrastructure company, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a company that desperately needs you and uses you and you're the infrastructure that runs their company and they're growing every single month at a, what is it?
[SPEAKER_00]: A 200% year over year growth.
[SPEAKER_00]: That comes back to you, right, if they are growing, that comes back to the infrastructure provider.
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, I just don't think that people are paying attention to this enough.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's rare to see this have 200% year-over-year growth, and then the underlying infrastructure player or provider be completely unaffected and go the opposite direction.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just only see a world where that can happen for so long.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[SPEAKER_00]: If you have this number from August of 2025, the 380 million, and now the sudden it's over, you know, a billion, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's growing hundreds of percent from, by hundreds of millions of dollars, how does that not affect the underlying infrastructure at some point in the future?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that it will.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, is there, does it have to happen instantly now?
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think at some point, you see a catch up here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just, I only think that you can see so much growth without the things that it correlates to being affected.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a great point and I've kind of just in my investing thesis as a whole and you know, we were early to Robinhood and love the Robinhood team and appreciate them always coming on the pod for the years and I know me and you kind of were, you know, made that call like under $10 to see where it is now.
[SPEAKER_01]: But with stable coins in crypto and this convergence of crypto and AI, it's like, okay, well, what's the future
[SPEAKER_01]: of banks.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's the future of money?
[SPEAKER_01]: What's the future of technology?
[SPEAKER_01]: And it feels like there could be a race of trying to figure out, you know, what type of company, what type of product can kind of encapsulate stable coins and finance and bring it into the new age.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's, you know, the summary of an investing thesis that I'm trying to research into is what's the next big tech company and could it be a financial firm in a way where, you know, if you lag behind, you know, the van guards of the world and we've seen the innovation that.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, black rock and Morgan Stanley are doing in Vanguard was late to the party and offering the Bitcoin ETF.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now it seemed come to the party, but you could think of it the same way of offering, you know, agentic trading and use of stable coins and kind of uplifting the system of what used to be where you just, you know, your paycheck goes to the bank and then they fractionally lend it and make all the money and you get, you know, you get nothing basically next to nothing.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, these type of products, I think, offer a huge opportunity for, you know, both investors, every day people, and, you know, the quote unquote banks themselves.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, these are the type of stats that get me excited, because where there's this type of growth, there's going to be tons of new products around it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if they're done right, I think you're going to maybe, you know, my thought would be
[SPEAKER_00]: mega banks that they're basically going to be technology companies uh my crazy Brendan or you're great no I don't I don't I don't I don't think you're crazy at all now the exciting part is how it plays out and watching it play out but
[SPEAKER_00]: time will tell man and you know if there's any time the position I think people are trying to time it perfectly but it's quite hard to do that but yeah yeah you can't time it perfectly because there's a lot of noise and then you know talking 20 years down the line but let's zoom it in for let's just go the rest of this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: and a huge topic is rate cuts and kind of came into the year you're thinking new fed president that the president or new fed president that the president of the president of the United States is going to pick he's going to be friendly to the administration he's going to come in and cut rates as we projected on the show that's not how it works there's a you know governing board that votes
[SPEAKER_01]: They're kind of, you know, I'm basically saying they're going to be data dependent and then then it's flipped all this data's coming in okay the war inflation's high oil inflation and we got a we got a raise rates we got a raise rates and I it's that pendulum of of Surrey cut this year then at one point we're seeing projection of two rate hikes and my my thought all along was probably an end up in the middle
[SPEAKER_01]: with maybe one or none.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so there's been all this talk about rate hikes, but then there's more data coming out of this job number.
[SPEAKER_01]: These jobs numbers can keep getting revised down.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we saw this years to go before the last election.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like some of these job numbers got revised down by a ton.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, 66,000 here, 43,000, 23,000 revised down.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if this is the case and you pull up the chart here and you're seeing, you know, negative growth, negative growth,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're if a positive, but then again, negative negative, it's like, yeah, this is an environment where in my opinion part of the mandate of the Fed is employment.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're seeing this, you're not going to go raise rates in my opinion.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I don't understand there's some some firms coming out projecting interest rate hikes.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't necessarily see it again.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm no interest rate expert.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just something I like to look into.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: No, you're 100% right.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the idea, and this is not a political stance at all, everyone, so.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think the idea of rate hikes is a ludicrous.
[SPEAKER_00]: At least multiple rate hikes right now, it is wild.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe we get one.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a possibility, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: But I just think that this whole idea is low.
[SPEAKER_00]: Especially when you have oil, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone's like, oh, well, it's because of oil and it's because of other things.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, guys, inflation lately has not been that bad.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't care how you look at it.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at it on true inflation, it's really not that bad.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at it based off of the numbers that has been coming out in some of these CPI and PPI reports, it's not as crazy as it's being talked about.
[SPEAKER_00]: And...
[SPEAKER_00]: when you see it be somewhat underwhelming and when you see energy like oil down 30% from its highs from 120 back down to almost $80 flat.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you know, I'm not sure what we're gonna say here, especially when you sure this kind of report to you though, where the jobs, it kind of speaks for itself.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_00]: It makes me wonder.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have wondered this.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what's going through some of the analyst heads on walls.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe it's tactical, actually.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now that I think about it, maybe it's tactical on there and
[SPEAKER_00]: to get the market to go to the way that they want.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think people, I don't think a lot of people truly believe that we're going to see multiple rate hikes.
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw some of the banks putting out saying that we're going to see three or four.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know how you get to that point, so I'm not going to get too into it, but I agree with you.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason why I think this matters is because there seems to be this narrative that there's this extremely strong argument for for hikes.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there is.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there is
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's extremely strong, I don't think we see multiple hikes this year, I don't think at least not with the data we have right now, I don't think we see multiple hikes next year either.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now again, the world can change, so time will tell.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I agree with you, and if this is the case for cuts, then obviously that would be net positive for Bitcoin cuts typically cause a more risk on environment, the more risk on the markets are, historically Bitcoin tends to perform pretty well on a rate-cutting environment, at least when we're expecting cuts.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's an important data point to track and actually really like this chart, Tivo, because
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I have been watching this data come out every month.
[SPEAKER_00]: I haven't seen all that put side by side with the last five years of data just basically showing that.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, hey, there's there's not a ton of fuel to kind of back this or at least it's not an easy argument right.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that that's the way that people act is that like on both ends.
[SPEAKER_00]: I Oh, which it absolutely be a cut it so obvious and the you have people in the opposite end being like, oh, should I absolutely be a hike it so obvious?
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's so black and white in either direction and so because of that I think there's gonna be a more neutral stance and
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, time will tell, but yeah, I think the idea of multiple hikes is, is, in my opinion, off the table.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and you've also seen those, those odds coming down on prediction markets and the Fedwatch tool and other things as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not like I just had this opinion that they're coming down.
[SPEAKER_00]: They, they are and they have been coming down a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, another piece of data is the housing market.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's over 1.1 million homes for sales in the U.S.
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... there's more supply than demand the prices need to adjust uh... which you know would would mean that part housing prices should come down i think there's a lot of uh... uh... like the buyers a lot of uh... buyers that necessarily don't want to sell there's a lot of people with multiple homes that can afford it
[SPEAKER_01]: But, and then there's the people that are locked into their down COVID interest rates, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: They're basically, you know, got the lowest rates in a lifetime during the COVID years on a house.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that means you're stuck.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're, if you want to upgrade for a house and you're a young family and you got this amazing rate at, you know, whatever it is, 3% on your starter home, you have the money and you've been successful and you've saved and you have a lot of equity in your home.
[SPEAKER_01]: and you want to upgrade your eye in that, you know, I'm just throwing out a number, like let's say you have the 300, 400,000 home, you're eye in the 800,000 home or the million dollar home.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you have all this equity in your house and you saved because you had the little payment.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, to get that equity out of your house, you have two options, you have to sell.
[SPEAKER_01]: for your family at the new interest rates, that people don't want to do, or you got a refinance, and when you refinance, you take the new interest rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you have all this equity in your home, but it's stuck.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I feel like there's a lot of stubborn, you know, seller slash buyers, if you're looking to move to a new home.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it would be interesting to see if that starts to move and that market starts to adjust.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and that great, you know, bringing inflation down as if housing prices come down.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: One more thing before we wrap up our Tuesday run now, and I just thought this was really cool.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Bullsverse, the Bears, it's always a battle field out there, Brent, and there was somebody code a website that shows the blog their price as a battle field.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.
[UNKNOWN]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you think?
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully the bulls take it as a snaddle field there in the months to come.
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw this, I think yesterday or over the weekend I saw this such a brilliant idea.
[SPEAKER_00]: I love this.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is fun because it's, I don't know, kind of gamepize it in a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can see the orders coming in just the way that they coded this and kind of visualized it is so smart.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it made me think like, why haven't we done this before?
[SPEAKER_00]: Brilliant idea.
[SPEAKER_00]: I love to see it.
[SPEAKER_00]: What was this website called again to you though?
[SPEAKER_00]: We have a, I saw videos of it, but I couldn't find what the actual website was.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I just saw it as a tweet on the reactions have me cracking up.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure you have to give it a Google or check it out for yourself, but either way, a good idea, a great idea, an interactive UI.
[SPEAKER_01]: It would be fun to see it when there's big rallies, and then obviously not as fun when there's a big drawdown.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'll just be interesting to see on days where there's a lot of buying or a lot of selling you turn on this website, see what's going on.
[SPEAKER_01]: It could be a fun visual.
[SPEAKER_00]: On days where it's just absolutely soaring or tanking that it's a problem, I always think it would be cool.
[SPEAKER_00]: There is like just crazy new things.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's like missiles flying and helicopter is coming out.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's an air strike comes in, that'd be great.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like air strikes and you're like, oh my gosh, like there's a lot of opportunity and then I'd deal like this.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we want to thank you for tuning in our coming on Brendan.
[SPEAKER_01]: We really appreciate it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks to everybody who tuned in.
[SPEAKER_01]: We had another international rundown.
[SPEAKER_01]: We had one person from Liverpool and a bunch of other people in the chat.
[SPEAKER_01]: We always appreciate it.
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[SPEAKER_01]: If you want to see me, Brendan, Brian, Joe, Hunter, when we do this, we do it live.
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[SPEAKER_01]: join us on YouTube.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's all for now.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to talk to you later this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got some more great interviews.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll do another rundown on Friday.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see you then.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's all for now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bye, everybody.