[SPEAKER_01]: Hello, everybody.
[SPEAKER_01]: JJ Cooper, Jeff Ponds.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ian Cunderle, Baseball America, Prospect, Podcast, and a little bit of a different one today.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we've got a lot of trade deadline stuff up at baseballamerican.com.
[SPEAKER_01]: Talk about the trade deadline a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a hot sheet show and wanna give you all sneak peak.
[SPEAKER_01]: Check it out.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're gonna go live on YouTube, also on Twitter, but really YouTube is the best place to check it out, can you leave comments?
[SPEAKER_01]: Ask your questions, propose trades.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're gonna go live, Ian and I, with Jacob Runder, I'm gonna go live.
[SPEAKER_01]: Jeff, you're invited too, I don't know if you talked to you about it, but if you're all coming to join us, if you're not busy.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we're gonna go live Wednesday, this Wednesday.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're downloading this on the Wednesday, the day it goes out.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can check it out 7 p.m. Eastern 4 p.m. Pacific, we're going to talk trade deadline.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to be going to be kind of, we like going live, you know, that you all, a lot of you all like us going live.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to do that, talk trade deadline.
[SPEAKER_01]: So today, a little different on this.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to talk, we got a, we've got a top
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll talk about the actual update next week on the show, the podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this week, we're going to talk about kind of the state of where the top 100 is right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I say that in part because of one thing, we're not, we don't have to worry about giving away anything as far as the new top 100.
[SPEAKER_01]: We haven't met on yet.
[SPEAKER_01]: The first, the big meeting is tomorrow, as we record this on Tuesday.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't know who's going to be number one.
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't know what changes are going to be in the 10.
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about it some.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're doing reporting on it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But but I just kind of wanted to roll into this kind of like because this is a conversation that we've had.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know I've had it with both of you guys and some others on the staff.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm just going to ask a simple question Jeff, I'll start with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: How good is the top 100 right now?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it above average top 100?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it a below average, is it an average, is it?
[SPEAKER_01]: I will figure that out.
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you think kind of where the state of the 100 is right now?
[SPEAKER_02]: I think a lot of this is just a reflection on how long you've been doing this.
[SPEAKER_02]: And have you reached that point where you're just jaded?
[SPEAKER_02]: So I feel like it's a fine top 100.
[SPEAKER_02]: I personally feel like maybe some of the top end talent we saw last year we've seen in previous years was a little bit better.
[SPEAKER_02]: I like my day a lot, but I can think of comparable prospects who were ranked three and four in recent top and hundred lists.
[SPEAKER_02]: So why would say that if I had to put a great on it, it would be like a 45, maybe a 50 if
[SPEAKER_02]: There's some updates, some players that are off the list that probably have on my own.
[SPEAKER_02]: Some other guys that I think we got to be aggressive and moving up.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think a 4550 is kind of reasonable right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think maybe the depth is the strength more so than like it being really top heavy, where
[SPEAKER_02]: I felt that points in time last season and then particularly in the off season, I think you can look at our top three and really our top 10 overall from last year and be like, yeah, there was some more top end talent there.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think just like comparatively, it's not the worst top 100 we've had.
[SPEAKER_02]: There was a few years ago where we were really struggling to like come up with a number one prospect and I think they was James Wood that went up to the top of the list.
[SPEAKER_02]: I didn't find my stuff, like adding the drafts always helps, it makes a little deeper.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's easier to rank because you have some of these guys that you may be like that are coming into Pro Ball.
[SPEAKER_02]: And at this point, it's beautiful because they haven't done anything bad or good.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you're kind of just going off of what their amateur profile is and maybe how Carlos and some others kind of view them historically.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, so it's, it's not as bad as maybe it's the worst of the ones that I've seen over my five to six years here.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, but yeah, this is, this is, this is solid, but not great or bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, give you a slightly different question.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because I think, I, I don't want to, you know, yeah, we kind of agree, you know, if you disagree with any of that assessment, feel free to share that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the other question I ask you is, is what are the,
[SPEAKER_01]: All laid out that I feel like the strength of this hundred right now, if you're comparing it to recent hundreds is
[SPEAKER_01]: Our years where we get to this point of the year and I'm like, our stretch in at 95 to find guys so you wanna really put them the list.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like I've got another 10, 15, 20 guys have been very comfortable putting on this hundred who aren't on it right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got guys who are off of it currently who were on it that were like, when we do this update, they're absolutely going back on.
[SPEAKER_01]: is the where do you think is a strength of this hundred?
[SPEAKER_01]: And is the top, like I want to Jeff said, is that kind of where this is a little lacking compared to some other years?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think that there's two real strengths for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the first one is, I don't think there are any of the elite prospects you see in the past years.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no corner group and level player.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no even Kevin McGawling, a level player in this 100 right now, in my opinion.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think though what there is, and this is a strength is, I think from Paisu's mod, I down to getting down to even, like, Sebastian Walker, at 21.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we're all guys that I think you could make a case for around, you know, like top 10, back of the top 10.
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't, there isn't that top, you know, two or three guys, like we've seen in past years, even last year, JJ weatherhold, I think was number three, like I, he would be the clear number one in this list for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think the one 20 group in itself is actually really deep, and I like a lot of the names in there, and there's guys, as I said, going down even Sebastian Walker, who I think you could make a case for should be a consideration for the top 10.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the other strength is exactly what you said.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the back of the list is really isn't a really good spot right now in terms of
[SPEAKER_00]: I look at, you know, going starting in like, you know, the 80s and the 90s.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then as you said, there's 10, 15, even 20 guys who we don't have on it, that I think are a consideration.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that kind of sums up what the strengths of the miners are right now is, you know, there's a lot of guys who, and there's not a lot of difference either.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's something that kind of gets lost because we cut it off at 100.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you wanted to tell me that, you know, the guy that we have at 110 right now should be inside the top 100, I don't think any of us would dispute that.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I don't think they're, it's a pretty flat.
[SPEAKER_00]: level there.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know where it, you know, it probably starts in like the 70s or something.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then goes down to 125, 130.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, all those guys could easily be on the back of the list.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's the strength.
[SPEAKER_00]: The weakness for me is the middle part.
[SPEAKER_00]: I look at the guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have in the 30s and the 40s and the 50s.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there are some that I would have much lower than we have them currently.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's just not a lot of names in there that I look at.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm like, I would move these guys up.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I call out one specific demographic that I think we're maybe talking around so why not just why don't just throw it out there.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's the college picture is outside of Kate Anderson from last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's Liam Doyle, which is like, there were bright spots at points where like I wanted to be optimistic.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you get into late July early August and you're less optimistic.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's Jamie Arnold and it's Tyler Bremner.
[SPEAKER_02]: What I don't think has really been bad but just been used
[SPEAKER_02]: Interestingly, my heart, no, you're right.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are guys that I feel like you have, and I think some of this is like ranking dynamics right, and I feel like between this and fantasy and the top 25 college, and then if I, like, I'm always doing rankings, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a trustworthy demographic.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a demographic that typically regardless of how good the player development is in a given organization.
[SPEAKER_02]: Typically college starters go fairly good.
[SPEAKER_02]: Especially if they're highly touted, if they have success in big conferences and have decent stuff, they kind of checked all those boxes.
[SPEAKER_02]: And different ways between Bremner Doyle and Arnold,
[SPEAKER_02]: But they all had unique traits that I think coming out of the draft, we all could buy in on.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those guys typically get shut down and if they pitch like Doyle did out for the draft, you kind of take it with a grain of salt.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, like look at what Paul schemes did after the draft and like what he is now, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: But they haven't delivered this year in a way that I think justifies what their preseason rank was.
[SPEAKER_02]: And those are tough rankings to kind of move down in the first half of the season, frankly, because things can change pretty quick with a tweak or something like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, and that's why I think what's so hard about draft to use these days and, like, slotting them in is a lot of the pitchers when we're setting our initial 100 in the off season, they've never pitch them pro ball.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're just going off of our nature data.
[SPEAKER_00]: And these pictures, and over the winter, these pictures, a lot of them will completely transform.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think, you know, the best examples of the last two years are probably a pair of red socks, guys in Peyton, totally in Anthony Hayinson, who were one picture, you know, both them, second and third round picks respectively.
[SPEAKER_00]: They came into pro ball and they were just completely different pictures.
[SPEAKER_00]: And totally obviously, it's ascended.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is now, you know, looking on a path to be maybe a number two starter and the big leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: And
[SPEAKER_00]: I, and said, well, he hasn't held this velocity games, his secondary stuff is improved across the board.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's added a new pitch in a cutter.
[SPEAKER_00]: And even though his number, he's not putting up the body numbers that totally did.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's putting up more walks.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not going as deep in the games.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's still had a very, very good season shown that he can be an effective pitcher while sitting, you know, 93 to 95.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that it makes it hard because, you know, as you just said, those college pitchers, you know, they all come in with the big expectations, all cop 10 picks.
[SPEAKER_00]: And they just haven't really, you know, you talk to scouts and it's like, I like them, but I don't love them.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like, well, that's not what you want to hear for a top 10 pick.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that is definitely a part of it that it's, you know, when you get in that middle tier, you were hoping some of those guys would take a step forward.
[SPEAKER_00]: And frankly, you're going to ask me the top three pitchers from last year's drop class in are Katie Anderson's obviously number one.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no doubt.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's crazy to say that Anthony Heinz and Engage would are probably two and three in some college college pitch.
[SPEAKER_00]: College, yes, college, yes.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's my college.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say set bananas, if you can know it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, let's say college pitchers.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was thinking about college pitch, but yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, and you look at it and tell you.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, I know we love Seth Hernandez here.
[SPEAKER_00]: As you can see on the screen, he's our number seven prospect for a reason.
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I think it's Kate Anderson, Anthony Heinz and Engage would, I think, you can make the case have been the three most successful.
[SPEAKER_00]: And like you talked to Scouts, like Engage
[SPEAKER_00]: non-zero chance he pictures in the big weeks this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like there's really interesting stuff going on with them, but it just hasn't balanced out when you lose three top 10 picks who have not lived up to expectations.
[SPEAKER_01]: Can I throw out one other thing with this though?
[SPEAKER_01]: That's like true of college pictures is like,
[SPEAKER_01]: The difficult thing, again, fun, difficult.
[SPEAKER_01]: No one's complaining here about, oh, what was us?
[SPEAKER_01]: We have to write prospects for a living.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's really fun, but one of the challenging things of this with especially when it comes to pictures, but especially these college pictures, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is, as you all just laid out, you're talking right now about guys who are
[SPEAKER_01]: in the situation where they're adjusting to a new schedule in a lot of cases, because
[SPEAKER_01]: I know like some teams now are even in the minors will do it for a while, but at some point you're gonna make that transition for a wait.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've got to start now a day earlier than I did before, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: You're now part of a five-man rotation as opposed to I pitch on Fridays, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: I pitch on Saturdays.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you've got that, you've got the different baseball, you've got all these things.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the other part of it is it's a journey, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of like, one of the things that strikes me is is that with pictures especially, like hitters, a lot of times the best hitting prospects, their minor league paths are pretty linear, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, there's no point where you look at Kevin McGonagall's minor league path, and you're like, yeah, that's when he really went through a dark time and had to really figure out how to kind of respond.
[SPEAKER_01]: A bad month for Kevin McGonagal was a good month, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: If you think about this though for even elite pitching prospects, there are not many Paul schemes out there, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Jacob Miserowski is the best pitcher in baseball now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would argue.
[SPEAKER_01]: I saw Jacob Bizarowski in a whole lot of spring breakout game hadn't been around that long, but it was multiple years and it was not something where it was like, stop everything.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you knew that you were going to see really good stuff, but it wasn't something where you were always watching him and going, like, I'm watching the guy who's going to be the greatest pitcher in the game before long.
[SPEAKER_01]: Take out, I mean, if you go down a further level, like there are a number of guys where you look at it and it's like, yeah, that was their lost year, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: McKenzie Gore's not, you know, is that solid, big league pitcher now?
[SPEAKER_01]: McKenzie Gore had a stretch where he was a truly horrendous.
[SPEAKER_01]: minor league pitcher.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm talking, the stuff was gone, the control was gone, the delivery was gone, everything was gone.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then he put it back together.
[SPEAKER_01]: The tough thing when we talk about these college pitchers, especially this first year, Jamie Arnold does not look like what you want to see right now in a first round pitcher from last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then now the challenge is how much of that is this is who he is and how much of that is this is who he is right now and now he's going to have to learn how to adjust how to make that transition.
[SPEAKER_00]: In the given moment, I don't think it's, you know, say, you know, for example, Jamie Arnolder, you know, that he, so right now, yes, as you said, he's not the same picture he looked like in college, but that's not to say he couldn't get back there as, as you were looting to with those other examples of like McKensey, or Jacob Bissarowski players like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, we're not saying he's going to live up to that level.
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, if he came out next year and started throwing more strikes, had, you know, more consistent v-lo, things like that, that wouldn't be a surprise at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why, and if he does that,
[SPEAKER_00]: with development right now, there's just, I think it's more so on the picture side, as you said, there's just the things evolve so quickly, you know, guys can just go in and you see them in April and then you come back and see them over the summer and all of a sudden they've added a completely new picture.
[SPEAKER_00]: They changed a new pitch grip and they found something with it that's unlocked.
[SPEAKER_00]: they've, you know, tweaked their delivery a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know, someone we talked about, um, you know, and I have, and you've written about his Ben Jacobs, who, you know, made a very small tweak to his delivery to get more extension and more drive-off his backside or back leg.
[SPEAKER_00]: And as a result, he all of a sudden added more VLO and was able to shoot up to, I think he's at high A right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: like little things like that can make such a big difference for a picture and that's why it's like you have to be constantly ready to evolve and ready to adjust depending on what those guys do and it's it might seem like yo-yoing but at the same time it's just because of how finicky the development is with them, you know, things can change on on the drop of a time.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to talk about this a little bit more and we're going to talk a little bit about some of the things that we've learned from past tough 100s.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll do that right after this quick break.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we're back.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that that's a really good point that he is making their Jeff, which is like, one of the, again, we're talking about process a lot this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: But one of the challenges of this that we want to get better and better at is not.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, I think there's a misconception understandably I would say out there from some people, you know, I've had comments about this like you see the hot sheet and you're like, oh, they're just reacting to who's had a great week.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, on the hot sheet we are the hot sheet is entirely designed to be we're going to talk about prospects who had a great week or of having a great little stretch.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we'll get the same, we'll get the opposite questions are, which is, this guy's been in the hot sheet three weeks in a row.
[SPEAKER_01]: How's he not on the top hundred?
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's like, because the hot sheet and the top hundred are two very different things.
[SPEAKER_01]: One is rewarding.
[SPEAKER_01]: Prospects have in great performance.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the other is looking much more bigger picture at, which prospects are going to perform in the big leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Jeff, I kind of will tee up you on this, which is,
[SPEAKER_01]: We're always trying to react to tangible, significant information, without overreacting to this guy had a bad start.
[SPEAKER_01]: This guy hit seven home runs in six games.
[SPEAKER_01]: Things that are fascinating in the moment, but are not really a big deal in the long run.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like that's a little easier now like we have more underlying information that makes it a lot better than when it was just like that none of that existed but how do you see like how do we balance like again we're not we're trying to like really reflect a reporting or analysis all that and we'll move guys up and down but how do you kind of balance that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think, you know, it's a matter of a few things and I think just naturally within our process we have checks and balances built in.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know this is going to sound very baseball-american-centric and probably somewhat arrogant, but I think that's what differentiates us between what we do in a lot of other sites.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I just, I don't know everybody's process, but I speak to that just based on the type of information we have, I know all the people on the start of the have, and just how aggressive we are throughout the year,
[SPEAKER_02]: of soliciting feedback on our personal like our top 30 list that said person but really our top 30 like system based list and then that obviously feeds its way into the top 100 and then we're sending out the top 100 maybe more often not it's it's less.
[SPEAKER_02]: area scout, excuse me, let's scout base stuff where guys that have specific systems.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like they're input kind of filters its way into the list through our top 30s.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then we're sort of sending this out, we're from the feedback loop.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're saying this out to maybe analysts that have, you know, a wider net, a larger perspective on like the the universe of players at large.
[SPEAKER_02]: In positions of power guys that are hitting buttons and making decisions and we get a lot of feedback and I feel like you tend to get kind of Some consistency within that not to say that there aren't players that certain teams and certain executives are higher on then than others But I think when you see a prospect trending up we tend to get that feedback from that part of sort of the feedback group right
[SPEAKER_02]: Then we filter in all of the underlying data that impacts our 30s and impacts our personal rankings, how we feel about these players, that goes into some of the top 100 conversation.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's stuff that's brought up before the list is made.
[SPEAKER_02]: When we're on a call, we'll be doing one tomorrow.
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll be on for hours.
[SPEAKER_02]: We will have conversations where
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, some of that underlying data that is non-public is very heavily weighted within the decision, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think, you know, like a perfect example of this might be somebody like in Eric Hartman, who moved up quite a bit on our list and really was way down in the Braves list and that was, you know, knock on Carlos or his work in the offseason.
[SPEAKER_02]: There were significant changes and that's going to happen more often than not with an 18 19 20 year old player and you're more willing to buy into sustainable changes with players at that age because
[SPEAKER_02]: so much is still developing.
[SPEAKER_02]: Once you're 22, 23 years old, it gets a little harder to kind of change your profile and what you do and don't do well, but there are significant contact gains, approach gains, power gains.
[SPEAKER_02]: Angles, I think you can see for a longer period of time get adjusted, but there kind of has to be a baseline to believe it and I'm getting a little bit off topic now.
[SPEAKER_02]: We had conversations with scouts that back at.
[SPEAKER_02]: We had conversations with front office people that back at.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's somebody that will continue to move up our list.
[SPEAKER_02]: And there might be other players who were ranked much higher coming into the year.
[SPEAKER_02]: But as we start to get into that underlying data, we start to look at the feedback from scouts.
[SPEAKER_02]: We start to look at the feedback from front office people.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I guess all this to say that it's not to say that we're not looking at performance, but it has to be performance that's backed by belief and backed by underlying data that says, yes, this is sustainable.
[SPEAKER_02]: Historically, because we've been looking at underlying data like this now for six or seven years,
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's like, okay, historically this compares to Gunner Henderson or Corbin Carroll or like these other guys that, you know, checked all those boxes and have gone on to significant big leagues success because at the end of the day, we don't, we don't rank on how you perform in the minor leagues, we're ranking based on how we think you're going to perform in the major leagues at peak.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think that's the balance of players who are performing versus what is this player going to be at 26 years old in the major leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: Because it could take some time to adjust to, I think we see that with players.
[SPEAKER_02]: So we're looking more toward like peak value, what is this guy going to be?
[SPEAKER_02]: And what are the things, the tools, the abilities, you know, historically like to players get to that
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think you know your article today looking at some of these power haters probably ties into that a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's that's also kind of part of this is that we also all try to like.
[SPEAKER_01]: We bring our own viewpoints to this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, again, like to go to what Jeff said there, one of the things I think is very valuable about this is that we all have things that are kind of our archetype of player I would say.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've always been, I will always wear that like, when it comes to pictures, if you're a soft tusser, I don't care about you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't, unless you can learn how to throw hard, because you know what?
[SPEAKER_01]: I know that there are a million people out there who want it to be true that the best way to be a great pitcher in the big leagues is to be really crafty and you're going to hit your spots perfectly in all and they're going to cite gregmatics and they're going to cite pit players who've been gone long enough that they are now in their fifties and sitting there and gray, you know, at the Hall of Fame, you know, and all.
[SPEAKER_01]: But in the modern game,
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just the reality that throwing hard is really important.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you look at, if you ask the question of who are the best pictures in baseball right now, one of the key things about them, Camichletler went from being nothing to being a stud.
[SPEAKER_01]: Why not because he learned how to command the ball better?
[SPEAKER_01]: He learned that he could throw a fastball 99 miles an hour instead of 93.
[SPEAKER_01]: And when it was 99, it plays a lot better than 93.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a bias I have.
[SPEAKER_01]: Other people look at it differently.
[SPEAKER_01]: When it comes to the piece I did today, again, we're trying to, we love the question.
[SPEAKER_01]: When people are like, why is Andrew Fisher not on the 100?
[SPEAKER_01]: Why is this guy not higher up?
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of times it is power hitters and what we've kind of seen, like again, when you say about historical data, flawed power hitters are kind of one of those things that's one of the toughest things to rank, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because every now and then one of them's going to become a stud.
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of times, they're going to be, oh, remember that guy, you know?
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I remember watching Russ Brandion, who's been long, long, long retired.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Russ Brandion was a guy who's like, if he could ever figure out how to make more contact, he could be 50 homers a year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's 100% true.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he never figured out how to make more contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Ian kind of when we're looking at this, when we're diving into this, Jeff mentioned heartman,
[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing that's a challenge with this is that we don't want to forget what we've known before or the perceptions of before.
[SPEAKER_01]: But like, I think that Josiah Hartchorn is a good example of this.
[SPEAKER_01]: You and I both obviously saw him at the future's game.
[SPEAKER_01]: The way I would put this is this.
[SPEAKER_01]: Josiah Hartchorn and Ethan Holiday.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, if we would be talking two years ago, I don't think there'd be any way that you would say, Josiah Hartchorn is a better prospect that Ethan Holiday.
[SPEAKER_01]: And at this point, I know Ethan Holiday's been hurt this year, but you've seen them both play this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would find it hard to believe at this point that Ethan Holiday is going to be a better big leaker than just firehart shorn.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that Josiah Hart shorn, neither of them are gonna have a ton of defense to value at the end of the day probably.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ethan Holiday may hit them all slightly harder, but I mean, it's slight.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I just think Josiah Hartford has a much better hit tool, and that's going to be at the end of the day, probably an overriding kind of thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: But like, that's an example of something where it's like, you don't want to throw away what you thought you knew in the past, but you also want to react to what you're seeing now, what you're reporting, what the data, all of it, put us together.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, is that one that jumps out to yours, or someone else that stands out?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, I think that's a very good example because yeah, it is, and it's one of those things that I think is part of what's important about our process is like we're combining those in person looks with both that on the pro side and the amateur side so we came in, you know, I did not see Ethan holiday as an amateur obviously, but we have people on staff who did who had that, you know, built in track record with him that we're able to, you know, I was able to bounce things off because I went out to California earlier in the season and was able to see him before he got hurt for an entire series.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he did some things really well.
[SPEAKER_00]: He had a couple of home runs.
[SPEAKER_00]: All its all fields power might be 70 raw power.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like he hits the ball extremely hard.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a very, very unique swing in very uphill.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the result is he has trouble accessing certain pitch types.
[SPEAKER_00]: Fastball is 95 plus above the belt.
[SPEAKER_00]: Had a lot of trouble getting to.
[SPEAKER_00]: Breaking balls and change ups down in the zone, a lot of trouble like recognizing getting to and things like that and you know when you see that happening the same pitch is kind of getting spammed over and over again and you swing through them.
[SPEAKER_00]: then he'll mix in a home run it, you know, that can be a tough look to kind of eval it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Whereas you look at someone like Harchhorn who we've seen this year, he was a six-drawn pick, granted got way over slot, I think he got around second round money.
[SPEAKER_00]: Comes from a really big school in California, I got to talk to him with the future game and it was really interesting hearing his story about, you know, he had access to a lot of the same technology, Ethan Holiday, it's growing up, because Ethan Holiday obviously coming from the holiday family, they have that hole, you know, the batting age, the full set up with all
[SPEAKER_00]: hit scan or the hit tracks, all that stuff, just like hard-churned title at all that stuff too.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he got into pro ball though and it's just, you know, being able to focus on baseball every day and being able to go out there and just hit, has just really translated and we saw it in the future's game, you know, he, I don't think he got to hit, but he has some really good at patch.
[SPEAKER_00]: He put a great swing on a big on one of the better fastballs in the game and lining it out.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to say it was either the right field or center field too.
[SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, you can buy that, you can buy that performance when he's done in low-way, high-a, the way he's translated against better competition, better pitching than what holiday was seeing in the California League.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then ultimately, health.
[SPEAKER_00]: That stuff matters, too.
[SPEAKER_00]: Some of like hard-chorn is going to end up playing a full season where it's holiday is going to miss, you know, what?
[SPEAKER_00]: four months, five months of reps this season.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a lot for someone who's at, you know, in the early stages of their career.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it puts him behind the able, heading in next season.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not to say that holiday can't make these adjustments, because another player who missed a ton of time, even Salas, was someone I talked to with the future scheme.
[SPEAKER_00]: He talks about how during
[SPEAKER_00]: the season during the season he missed, he was still able to develop in his mind positively because he was putting in the work off the field in other areas, you know, we couldn't play, but they were still that ways that you can develop and that's going to be a key for holiday too, especially given, uh, yeah, just, you know, the injury and everything that's going on right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, uh, kind of along this lunch, Jeff, um,
[SPEAKER_01]: How do you try to, I think people would be interested to know, how do you try to separate out when you're getting conflicting and puts on a player, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So all the time, like we will get examples of, okay, we've got in feedback that we're too high on this guy and we're too low on him, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Some people say we're too high, some people say we're too low, which is often like a goldie-locks, like, okay, so we're kind of just right?
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, because again, the great thing about this is there aren't
[SPEAKER_01]: Ian and I were talking yesterday, and one thing I would say that would come to prospects.
[SPEAKER_01]: Clospects are not, do not think like a light switch, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: This is not on, this says the prospect off he's not.
[SPEAKER_01]: Think of a rotary dial that goes from like 1 to 10, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And when people kind of wonder, well, why do guys move up and down, like you're just moving them just to juice the rankings?
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, no, what we're trying to do is, sometimes you have the input, you have on a prospect kind of tells you is a five, he's a four, then you get more feedbacks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then they start doing something differently.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now there are six.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they get injured and, you know, like, Bryce Rainer this year was like, he said, no, we didn't knock him off the hundred, but like, if you'd have asked any of the three of us in March,
[SPEAKER_01]: watching that swing, like, what is Bryce Reiner going to do in April?
[SPEAKER_01]: We've been like, he's probably going to be one of the worst hitters in the minor leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: And like, if you were just taking a snapshot, he was a two at that point.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we're like, he's got problems of this swing coming back from an injury, shoulder injury.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll probably get him fixed.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has now, okay, back up to a six or seven.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, it's kind of like, it's all on a spectrum.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're turning the knob like what?
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, you're trying not to overreact because you know that the underlying
[SPEAKER_01]: Pools are there, but you're also trying not to Underreact where you don't acknowledge like, hey, Bryce Rainer may not get back because I know Ian looks like you have something you want to add to that
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, it's just, it was just, it got me thinking about something that happened to me this past week where I was talking to a couple of scouts I know were at the same same series all week and so I was, you know, just kind of running through what they thought of some guys in it and there was one specific player where they gave to wildly different grades on and this is the, this is a player that both of them watch the exact same set of games and came away with two completely different opinions of a player and that that's, you know, I think that's the ultimate example of what you were talking about is like, you know, we'll get up our down for you back, but you can see in the industry,
[SPEAKER_00]: two people whose jobs these are guys who were paid to scout professional baseball they go in and they watch the same player have two wildly different opinions and that's you know that that's where the a lot of this comes to it's not an exact science you know a lot of it is you know we have that you that's why you have to combine all these different points of references and do the reporting in addition to you know evaluating the data and everything is because you know if you can talk to certain people who are certain organizations who prioritize sitting certain archetypes of players another work might not like that type of player
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, there's certain things that are different that there's just so much variance from organization organization and that that's what makes it I think, you know, it makes it so fun, but also, you know, it's challenging when you're coming Ultimately to try and determine where to rank someone who one player thinks should be inside the top 100 the other ones like, yeah, I don't think you's one of the top 10 prospects of the system.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll throw this out Jeff, I'll kind of te you up on this because this is a guy we've all talked about.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to have a fun discussion I can tell you right now, probably about Kendri Torio.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not because there's anyone, there's going to be in that virtual room tomorrow, who's like, Henry Tureo sucks.
[SPEAKER_01]: No one would say that, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a guy who, as a teenager, is dominant, throws hard, checks my box on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, those things where you're like, okay, this is why he could be really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's a tough one to rank because
[SPEAKER_01]: impressive like you know like it doesn't mean you can't be a successful pitcher and be small but he's small and there are like so like he's a pitcher so the fact that he's so dominant at a at high A at an age where many of his contemporaries are figuring out rookie ball or trying to get to low A doesn't mean the same thing for that as it does if you're a hitter right like
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you've, I don't know, you've to get it spent a lot of time thinking about Cheerio.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, there were guys like that where it's like, we don't, we're not trying to be Debbie Downer, but it's like, calm down just a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we could be wrong.
[SPEAKER_01]: But here's why we're trying to be a little bit hesitant on a guy like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think, you know, it's, it's one of these kind of classic debates over the last few years where
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, there's performance, you know, I think 10 years ago, we probably would have shoved this guy up into the top 25 because he throws hard enough.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's getting enough strikeouts that performance is there.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's young for the level, he's doing a lot of strikes.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think from like a traditional sense, he does check a lot of boxes of like a top 50 to top 25 type of prospect.
[SPEAKER_02]: But we've also seen that there are certain traits and characteristics that pitchers kind of need to have in or beyond just velocity, some released, treat characteristics.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, that could be extension.
[SPEAKER_02]: It could be sort of how the arm action comes at you.
[SPEAKER_02]: It could be kind of spin efficiency.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's probably more of a release metric than it even is anything else.
[SPEAKER_02]: There was certainly, it has a massive impact on ball flight, but where does it come from?
[SPEAKER_02]: And then, you know, like the ball flight metrics.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, like, how does the pitch move once it's out of the hand?
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, if it doesn't, so like, I always kind of look at fast balls for years.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've been saying this, I think, before even came to baseball in America.
[SPEAKER_02]: When I break down a fastball, it's kind of like a triangle of like does a touch, you know, all three corners.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's like velocity, most important, that kind of gets you in the door.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that probably has like a 60 to 65, 70% kind of weighed on this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I might hope you're 75, but yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and then you need either release traits or you need movement.
[SPEAKER_02]: like there are guys that like just if you didn't have the release traits and you just looked at vert and hb and velocity be like, yeah, check if the ground's fastball doesn't seem that unique.
[SPEAKER_02]: But then you you factor in the release traits and it's like, okay, he really checks that second box and it and it kind of puts into perspective the movement and then it's like, all right, this guy's actually touching all three corners.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I think that's the question with Cheerio.
[SPEAKER_02]: Is I think the velocity is there?
[SPEAKER_02]: from like an execution standpoint, the command is there, the control is there.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's certainly important.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that sometimes, if the secondaries are good enough, like when I move up for hearto, you'll care for hearto in the cardinal system, this update in the top 30, and maybe he's maybe a back end top 100 guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's kind of similar, like the velocities okay, the command is really good.
[SPEAKER_02]: But the thing that like sells me on Faharto is it's in a above average to plus change up and in a above average, and maybe plus if you add a couple of four ticks in the next couple of years, slider.
[SPEAKER_02]: So like I can buy into that a little bit more because it's like Charlie Morton didn't have a great fastball but had velocity and command and good secondaries and that's kind of what allowed Charlie Morton to be so successful for a long time.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think there's like this sliding scale with pitching
[SPEAKER_02]: and you kind of need to strike the right balance.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's not to say that, I mean, I think Kendri Turio to everybody is a top 100 prospect, but I don't think that's a question.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I do think like getting him into that 50 to like 25 range is a little bit more of a question because you're like, I don't know if he has those special characteristics that differentiate him from a four to a number three started, a number four starter versus a guy that's like a number three to a number two or above that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Right, because I think when we we look at that mid rotation we use that mid rotation term it's kind of like you can hedge one way or the other it's like mid rotation or like number four like mid rotation, but there's upside for it to so I think it's like he's in that weird range like I think he's a 60 I think he's a number three
[SPEAKER_02]: But it's like, is it the high end three or is it the lower end three?
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's going to come down to those guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: Give it another example, Ian of a guy who's not even, I think, you know, who's not currently on our 100, but like who's been our minor league pitcher of the year a couple years ago, quit Matthews.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was, you know, looking a couple of days ago, like at minor league leaders, and it's like Kate Anderson leads the minors in a bonus batting average second is quit Matthews.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kubernetes has a 1-ERA in July, had a 2-ERA in June.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, this is a guy who's been a prominent prospect, who's shoving, but it kind of goes back to the point that you were making earlier about these guys, we were making all making about that this is a journey.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, couldn't Matthews that his best has looked exceptional.
[SPEAKER_01]: Quinn Matthews has had times where it's like what happened to Quinn Matthews and where did he go?
[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's back to he looks really good, but it kind of fits into what Jeff was saying also there where it's like you don't also don't want to get to cut up in the moment like you're trying like you just saw okay I'll talk about Quinn Matthews.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll talk about one you wrote about recently you just saw Carson Millbrand right we just saw you talked to Carson Millbrand at the future's game as well
[SPEAKER_01]: You all saw Carson Milbran on a not a very good day for Carson Milbran.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're trying to big picture it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And at the same time, not let, but you see either good or bad overdo.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because again, we also try to watch a lot of this, that's not your first time seeing Carson Milbran when you saw him like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of this kind of goes back to the whole idea of with these guys, of like,
[SPEAKER_01]: The end of the day, we're trying to lay out what they're going to be in five to ten years.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's really challenging in it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, it's one of the hardest things because it's especially with pictures because of just, you know, there's the inherent injury risk, which you can just completely change the trajectory of a career and I mean, you look at the 100 right now and this was something that didn't have time to talk about earlier, but there's a lot of like guys coming off of injuries or who are in the midst of injuries in the middle of the list and that I think is really like complicated things like someone like jarlins usana who Jeff and I were talking about him earlier today we're having some trouble trick figure out where to rank him for a different list.
[SPEAKER_00]: because it's like, I don't know what he's going to be back.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what he's going to look like.
[SPEAKER_00]: On the mound, he's on the mound again.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's excited.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's a high maintenance body who has spent a lot of time off the field.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, what is that going to look like when he comes back, we don't know.
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I agree that it makes it very tricky because when you have, when you see a guy in person, like I did mill brand, like you have your evaluations, you have, I have my processes for how I'm going to write him up when I do the scatterport.
[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, I watched a bunch of his double A starts and he was arguably in their contention for picture of the year if he had stayed in double A.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's how much, you know, how do you value a guy who or how do you how much do you take the stock of what a guy did at double A when he was at an age appropriate level.
[SPEAKER_00]: First, you know, and then he gets moved up to triple A.
[SPEAKER_00]: First time in triple A.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a high school kid, he's still only 22 years old.
[SPEAKER_00]: How much do you weigh that when, you know, I, the lineup we saw him in, and Jeff can attest because Jeff was also there.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's one of the orgyous lineups you're gonna see in the sense that it had seven, seven of the nine guys in the lineup had major league experience with, with several with like 200 plus played appearances or even more of major league experience.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's facing against guys who have like,
[SPEAKER_00]: an extensive track record of performance and not only triple A, but also in the big leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's in his, I think it was his eighth appearance in triple A as a kid who was drafted, you know, four years ago out of high school.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, that's, you have to kind of weigh that too, in which is why I think it just makes it, it's very difficult with pitchers, because there's just so many contextual factors.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the other one, I mean, I think you briefly mentioned earlier, too, is the new baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, when you get up the triple A, you're using a completely different baseball than you've pitched with all season.
[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen the impact that can have like some of it comes to mind's Kendri Kendri Rojas last year, who has been looked, I don't know if you've seen what he's been doing in the major league recently, looks fantastic.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's scrolling just incredible right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: He last year, I believe, had almost as many walks and hits.
[SPEAKER_00]: her or he was his whip was like two in triple A last year and it all came down to just talking to people with the twins that he just he just could not figure out the new baseball like he got up there for the first time was like I don't know what I'm doing like the pictures are not moving the same way I don't have the same feel for it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And with some like, you know, Mill Brant, you have to wonder, is that something that's going on?
[SPEAKER_00]: And when I asked him about it, he said, it's a little bit of a factor, not a major one, because he has strong with it during spring training.
[SPEAKER_00]: But still, like, you know, there's a big difference when you spent the first, you know, four months of the season throwing a one-based bond.
[SPEAKER_00]: You got a new one, and then all of a sudden you're facing better haters.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that, it's important to understand, I think, the context when you when we're evaluating these guys, especially the ones that move up in season.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it applies to position players too, you know, someone like Devin Fitzgerald.
[SPEAKER_00]: who was awesome in hi-A to start the year, goes up to AA, where he's very young for the level, and he's really struggled so far.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's, you know, how much do you weigh his start of this season in hi-A versus what he's done at AA is something that can be difficult to sift the room?
[SPEAKER_01]: That leads me to a little bit of a story time.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been working a lot on the trade deadline and kind of the historical trade deadline moves on all this.
[SPEAKER_01]: And to give it a perfect example of this, like where this is,
[SPEAKER_01]: What makes this indusely fascinating is you will never master this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't care who you are.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no one, the smartest baseball mind in the world working for a team gets things wrong all the time because we are talking about human beings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a random story time on this, which is looking at the trades, looking at the deals.
[SPEAKER_01]: And one of the things that kind of is a weird one that stood out is in 2010.
[SPEAKER_01]: In 2010, the white socks were in it.
[SPEAKER_01]: They were making a push at the deadline and they were like, we need a starting pitcher.
[SPEAKER_01]: So they went out and they traded for Edwin Jackson, veteran starters seem like you got moved at the deadline a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: And they traded in that deal, Daniel Hudson to the d-bex, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And Edwin Jackson to his credit, like he was four and two, three, two, four, and 11 starts for the white socks.
[SPEAKER_01]: They didn't name it up with 84 wins.
[SPEAKER_01]: They didn't make it the playoffs and all that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, they were right in that kind of fringe of the hunt, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, Daniel Hudson had made six appearances for the white socks that, you know, the year before and then three for them that year.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he goes to the D-backs and is immediately put in the rotation, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's the the young guy who's not ready, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why they traded for Edwin Jackson.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's because Daniel Hudson went ready.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Daniel Hudson goes seven and one, one, six, nine, ERA with a three, two, two,
[SPEAKER_01]: Daniel Hudson, the rest of that year, was exactly what was better than they ever would have hoped that Edwin Jackson would be for them.
[SPEAKER_01]: In the same number of starts, 11 starts, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So obviously, given hindsight, you would say, well, the white suction have held onto the cost-controlled Daniel Hudson and just ridden him to this.
[SPEAKER_01]: But then there's even the context of maybe not because we don't know, again, this is 16 years ago now.
[SPEAKER_01]: But did Daniel Hudson need to go to Arizona and was there a someone there, the pitching coach or whatever, who was able to unlock something in Daniel Hudson that didn't exist before?
[SPEAKER_01]: And so like, we talk about this at times, it's like, we talked about this with Chase Donner on his way up, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, Jeff and I remember having a prospect podcast we're talking about him and we're like,
[SPEAKER_01]: But we also fully acknowledge that we can be talking about this eight years from now and say you never was in a good why it's a Colorado.
[SPEAKER_01]: I, you know, so that's where it's like, or you say with a guy like, oh, like I'll tell you right now, like.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we joke about it, but it's like when the draft happens and a guy gets drafted by the Dodgers and you just kind of go like yep.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, whereas if I said before, like I'm sorry, but Elijah Green and the Nationals of the early 2020s was the worst possible combination of player and farm system to put together, because the Nationals, what Elijah Green needed was plate discipline and context skills improvement.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that was not things that the Nationals were good at at that time.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have both ways can happen where you can have guys who are a perfect fit for an organization Or you can have guys who are the exact worst possible fit in organization And sometimes those guys didn't get moved and it's like, oh, look what they've got And sometimes it's like, yeah, but it wouldn't have happened if you didn't manage to fuse that player in that situation
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and it looked like you had something to say.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, it's just going to say like an example of that as someone who just kind of strikes, you know, fits that for me right now in the hundreds of Christians as Ueda, you know, this was a guy who was with the Yankees.
[SPEAKER_00]: Didn't have a ton of experience with the Yankees, but, you know, he was a DSL repeater.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, the track record of DSL repeaters is probably getting better, but it's not the best.
[SPEAKER_00]: He gets traded in a kind of a minor deal for I think it was Caleb Ferguson, you know, solid what six ending arm, six ending middle relief type.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's gone to the Dodgers, and it took him, you know, what it took a year or so.
[SPEAKER_00]: But now all of a sudden, he's really taken off.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you look at his last two seasons.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now he's someone who I think will probably, I would be surprised if he continues to rise up the 100.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he's, he's, you know,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, would that have happened with the Yankees?
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it took, as I said, he was in the DSL for two seasons.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the Dodgers clue, we at like found saw something that they could work with.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's what makes it, especially with pictures, I really care about the organization they're in.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the archetype of picture they are and how it fits in that organization.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because you look, I think there's a pretty strong track record of certain orgs of developing pictures.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know,
[SPEAKER_00]: the dodgers, the brewers, the guardians, I mean the red socks are starting to kind of turn into that a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like there are certain orgs that when they acquire a pitcher, especially if they come in with a baseline town level, it really peaks your interest for me now.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's something that too, like, can kind of influence them 100, because I look at some of the pitchers and it's like,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, as you said, chased all under, if chased all under was on one of those other works, I feel like he probably would have ranked a lot higher than he did with the Rockies, because just inherently, unfortunately, if you're in Colorado, it's really hard to be a pitcher there.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I think it's just there's so many contextual factors that go into these things.
[SPEAKER_01]: Jeff, you get to wrap it up.
[SPEAKER_01]: You get the final thoughts.
[SPEAKER_01]: What else strikes you?
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, just about the entire list.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's a process, the process.
[SPEAKER_01]: Cause we've been talking a lot about, you know, again, the challenges.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I say that in a good way.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like again, the challenges in a, we wanted this to be better every year.
[SPEAKER_01]: We try to get better at it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what are the things that you see as kind of things that we're trying to get better at?
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the biggest challenge is players who,
[SPEAKER_02]: Perform well, kind of check all the boxes throughout all the levels of the miners and then they get the triple A and struggle.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because we've seen guys that I interject sure I would even throw out the even more challenging one is this out again Well, I think someone I think marked your early on our staff talked to a scout about this guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like They're also now guys like Jack Hagley on who dominate every level of the miners And I remember the scout saying right before he came up he's like he needs to be sent to the majors
[SPEAKER_01]: He's gonna get his head handed to him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, see, only why he's gonna learn how to be a good player because the miners won't do it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you got that to go to a tooth.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, then I just hope they get to 130 at BADs or 45 days of service time and a relatively quick fashion.
[SPEAKER_02]: And struggle then and then figure it out.
[SPEAKER_02]: That happens, too.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I don't know, I feel like the,
[SPEAKER_02]: The Colson Montgomery example is one that kind of sticks in my mind or is thinking about it the other day.
[SPEAKER_02]: Where I kind of always believed in the power I believed in the athlete, we tried to hold on with Colson Montgomery through probably over a year of struggles in AAA.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, if you look at AAA numbers, you just did not produce.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then kind of, they shut him down, they reworked the swing, he came back.
[SPEAKER_02]: We started to see some positive stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if we had added him back in the top 100 at that point.
[SPEAKER_02]: He had just fallen off.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, we kept them on there for if he started for 15 months, we kept them on there for 13 or 14.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, and then he gets up for the majors and he's running these high with rates and and like kind of chase rates, but he's finding barrels.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's making plays in the field.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's like, all right, like, there's a lot to buy into still here.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think like that's that's the biggest struggle.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think we see it with a lot of West Coast pictures and AAA to guys that, you know, a really good and they go to Pacific coast league and they struggle.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think AAA kind of in generals like this, but.
[SPEAKER_02]: particularly the Pacific coast league and you're like, I don't know if this is indicative of the struggles he's going to have in the major leagues or if it's just some PCL weirdness of, you know, the way the run environments are there.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I find Triple A harder and harder
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a kind of a value weight because there's just maybe less so this year prior to the challenge system coming to MLB but like I can remember like everybody when it was like full AVS and then they had that like mid what was it was like two state of 30 days 80 as an end with challenge system from Friday to Sunday or vice versa and like we saw so many guys that really weren't
[SPEAKER_02]: But we saw so many guys that really didn't walk a whole lot.
[SPEAKER_02]: That didn't have great approaches.
[SPEAKER_02]: That all of a sudden had like 11, 12% walk rates in triple A.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I was like, I don't know if I can buy that.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it was like, all right.
[SPEAKER_02]: So maybe we need to discount some of these walk rates.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's some of these hitters a little bit from what they're producing in triple A.
[SPEAKER_02]: Versus maybe like not discounting what some of these pictures were doing despite the numbers maybe being
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, a little bit ugly and a little bit of an eye sore.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I find some of the triple A performance at times a little bit tricky.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it was kind of the thing that was in my head as we were watching because I was at the same game Ian was this weekend watching Carson Millbrands of like I like a lot of stuff about this guy, but I don't want to get too caught up in bad AAA performance.
[SPEAKER_02]: I tried to focus more on mechanical things other things that maybe I didn't like about Millbrand.
[SPEAKER_02]: that I thought personally were maybe like bigger concerns and stuff like I don't cover the marlins but stuff that I might discuss when we're going over the top 100 list with some analysts or front office people like hey what are your thoughts on mill brand like his mechanics and lower half and some of that stuff is opposed to focusing on hey mill brand has you know whatever is the RA is at the moment over this many starts and is that a concern because I think
[SPEAKER_02]: You tend to get less interesting conversations on that sort of thing as opposed to maybe like, trying to dig a little deeper and like figure out or I like, what is this struggle?
[SPEAKER_02]: What is he getting exposed to?
[SPEAKER_02]: Is it just bad luck, which sometimes happens?
[SPEAKER_02]: Or are there other things like mechanical flaws, et cetera, that are more worthy of kind of digging in deep when I get a really smart person on the phone or via text message or whatever?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll just throw off that, like, you mentioned Montgomery, like, okay, the white socks are fascinating, that's your, but like, if you take Colson Montgomery and let it talk about Montgomery, and if you ask me right now, are these going to be star players in 27 and 28, are they going to be solid regulars, or are they going to be guys where we're kind of scratching our head and go, what happened?
[SPEAKER_01]: I think all three of those are very plausible answers for both of those.
[SPEAKER_01]: Cause like, close to Montgomery at the end of the day is a good defensive shortstop who is still really hard and is probably gonna run 222 30 batting averages 290, OV300, OVP's.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's like, that's where that borderline is really close of like,
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's say that all of a sudden, what happened to the baseball next year, and it's like, okay, just carve, you know, five to take eight homers off of everyone.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, then all of a sudden, he becomes less valuable.
[SPEAKER_01]: Murakami is being credible this year when healthy, and then there's the other part of it, where it's like, how many guys have long-term success, striking out 32% of the time?
[SPEAKER_01]: Where it's like, again, this is where we're talking about big leaders.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not even talking about prospects,
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that if you ask me to make the argument on all three of those cases, I think I could make the, I could make a convincing argument.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I know I saw your eyes get big because I know you and I've talked about more economies.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, is this the sign of a new archetype of player that can make it work?
[SPEAKER_01]: Or is this a really good 300 plate appearances
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, it was something I brought up in the conversation with Ian today as we're talking through some of the fantasy ranks that we're updating going on this night today.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's like, you know, I don't, I don't really know what to do with Lizara Montes because it is 80 power.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's great angles there.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, is this another guy that can that could pull Markami?
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not an unheard of profile, but it does seem that these guys are
[SPEAKER_02]: a little bit more impact than I don't think it's just like power.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's like they're batting averages.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're on base percentage, it seemed to be running a little bit higher than they would of years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, we don't, we're almost an hour in, so we don't need to dive into this, but it's like,
[SPEAKER_01]: The fascinating thing with guys like that is is that like those are the guys who their range of spectrum of outcomes is so wide because like I could tell you right now there's never going to be a point in last romantic career where you can't be beat my quality stuff like that's going to be absolutely true.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the difference between a guy like that like when we talk about the Nick Madrigal type like archetype.
[SPEAKER_01]: never swing swings and never misses in all this but can do nothing when it do it like your range of what you can do is really small because it's going to be a batting average derived value with a little bit of walks but you're pretty aggressive so not that.
[SPEAKER_01]: The difference with Lazarum
[SPEAKER_01]: two balls a week, one ball a week, you know, like five balls a week, like, and it's gonna be married narrow margins because like the difference, like, he's gonna swing and miss a lot at pitches in the zone.
[SPEAKER_01]: But as you just said, like, he's also gonna hit enough of them, like, if he gets to, again, we're Tom off Murakami, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Murakami swings a ton of, a ton of, and misses.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you can get a 30 homers doing it, 40 homers doing it, who cares?
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's,
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, it's a fun topic.
[SPEAKER_01]: This was kind of our preview next week.
[SPEAKER_01]: We will talk about the actual tangible top-hundred, especially we'll probably talk a lot about what we did at the top of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we hope you did enjoy this kind of look at kind of the bigger picture.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we love doing this.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is why we, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: The three of us on this have gone to a whole lot of games over the years and been thinking about this for a very long time.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're fortunate to do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, baseball merks subscribers.
[SPEAKER_01]: Speaking of that, there is a going to be an offer.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're not a baseball merks subscriber, do check out later this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: On the site, we will have an offer tied to the trade deadline where you can save on a new subscription.
[SPEAKER_01]: So check that out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you check out the live show that Ian and I will do Wednesday evening, that is 7 July 29th, Trade Deadline Live Show 7 PM Eastern 4 PM Pacific and also obviously check out over at baseballamerica.com when trades happen, we're going to write them up.
[SPEAKER_01]: It comes to prospects.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to rank every prospect traded and we're also giving you a lot of historical information on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And by the way, we've got everything about wrapping up the draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got everything getting ready for the next draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got the high school rankings, recruiting rankings, all that over at baseballamerica.com.
[SPEAKER_01]: For Jeff, for Ian, I'm JJ.
[SPEAKER_01]: So long, everybody.