[SPEAKER_00]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
[SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is Turley Talks.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right now, as you're watching this, the bombs over Iran have gone quiet for the very first time in 13 straight nights.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that silence is turning out to be even more terrifying for the regime than the bombing itself.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's because behind the scenes, something else is happening.
[SPEAKER_00]: Something Iran's own general spent decades trying to prevent something unfolding in the mountains of the West.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even worse, Trump just posted something on true social that tells you exactly what's coming next if these talks fail.
[SPEAKER_00]: And another country, one no one expected, just opened a brand new front against Iran thousands of miles from the Persian Gulf.
[SPEAKER_00]: Stick me the very end of this video because what's coming next could be the moment when the sand in the hourglass for this 47-year regime finally runs out.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve, your patron professor here to help you make sense of the madness.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're breaking news in analysis.
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[SPEAKER_00]: As you know, ever since the June 17th, Islamabad memorandum collapse, U.S. forces launched strikes on Iran for 13 consecutive nights, hitting command centers, missile and drone storage, coastal radar, and reinstating the naval blockade of Iranian ports to economically strangle them.
[SPEAKER_00]: Trump had been weighing something even bigger.
[SPEAKER_00]: Something he described is potentially
[SPEAKER_00]: meeting with cabinet officials and repositioning Pentagon assets in the region.
[SPEAKER_00]: But by Friday evening, he pulled back.
[SPEAKER_00]: No strikes were ordered over the weekend.
[SPEAKER_00]: The first pause in the entire two-week sequence.
[SPEAKER_00]: U.S. ambassadors the U.N. Mike Waltz said Trump is keeping all options on the table and
[SPEAKER_00]: Iranian officials are genuinely divided internally, really not knowing what to do.
[SPEAKER_00]: Some looking to this supposed supreme leader for guidance, others pushing a completely different direction.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the very kind of internal paralysis that we've seen from the regime from the very beginning ever since the first strike back on February 28th that killed their Iatola Kamini and their entire IRGC senior leadership.
[SPEAKER_00]: ever since that day the regime has been fractured with various factions trying to gain the upper hand internally.
[SPEAKER_00]: Meanwhile, Iran's own army spokesperson confirmed its retaliatory strikes have indeed paused as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: the first time since the ceasefire initially broke down, and what that means is that we appear to be seeing a similar rationale for this pause as we saw with the previous ceasefire.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that ceasefire, if you remember, had two objectives to calm the oil markets and bring prices at the pump down here at home, all the while restocking munitions and building up forces in the Gulf region abroad.
[SPEAKER_00]: So in effect, it was a deliberate calm before returned to the storm.
[SPEAKER_00]: And given that Iran is holding off on its increasingly limited retaliation at dan desperate retaliation.
[SPEAKER_00]: It does seem that we'll be seeing a bit of a reprieve at the pump and a continuous buildup in the region.
[SPEAKER_00]: The latter is certainly happening.
[SPEAKER_00]: US troop levels in the Middle East have risen above 50,000 up from the usual 40,000 across Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait.
[SPEAKER_00]: and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli deploying additional marines in F-35s and region marking the largest regional buildup since the Iraq war.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then there's what Trump posted on true social.
[SPEAKER_00]: So while talks were supposedly getting space to breathe, the president shared a series of AI-generated images, one showing U.S. fighter jets bombing Carg Island, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: That's Iran's ATMs, their main oil export terminal that handles roughly 90% of its crude, and its catch and strike on Carg.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, another AI generated image shows Trump himself standing on an Iranian tanker with the American flag raised, an Iranian flag tossed aside, captioned, that's our oil tanker now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I am the captain now, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, don't dismiss this as simple trolling.
[SPEAKER_00]: Make sure you get these.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the regime sees these posts.
[SPEAKER_00]: These posts are psychological warfare in Trump's style for sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: and they're absolutely deliberate, and Trump is telegraphing the next move before he makes it, Car Island, Iran's economic ATM machine.
[SPEAKER_00]: is the target if talks collapse, at least that's what he's threatening.
[SPEAKER_00]: And every time Iran is forced to defend or replace lost capability at Carg, they bankrupt themselves a little bit more.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the same strategy we've seen all along.
[SPEAKER_00]: Forced Iran to bleed resources, defending the one asset that keeps their economy barely breathing, whether or not the US ever actually sets foot on the island.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're bombarding them all the while we're economically choking them out and that combination is simply unsustainable for the regime in the long run.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then, as if it could possibly get worse for the regime, Ukraine has entered the war.
[SPEAKER_00]: Ukrainian forces carried out long-range drone strikes over the weekend in the Caspian Sea, hitting vessels Kiev says, where ferrying military cargo between Iran and Russia.
[SPEAKER_00]: President Zelensky confirmed strikes on the Fillinovsky oil platform to sanction cargo ships and a Russian missile boat.
[SPEAKER_00]: Ukrainian ambassador to Israel said flatly that one of those ships
[SPEAKER_00]: was, indeed, carrying drone and missile components, not civilian cargo, like Iran claimed.
[SPEAKER_00]: Iran's foreign minister obviously was livid, he was furious, and he's threatening retaliation against Kiev directly as if anything even remotely like that could possibly intimidate Ukraine at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it was a reminder of just how isolated Iran is.
[SPEAKER_00]: All the Gulf countries have turned their backs on Iran, China has largely abandoned Iran, and Ukraine has made it known that it's not going to tolerate any nefarious activity in their region involving Russia.
[SPEAKER_00]: Iran really has been effectively alienated from the outside.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what's even worse is what's happening on the inside.
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is where Kurdish fighters come in.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is something the regime never expected.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Kurds are one of Iran's largest ethnic minorities, concentrated in the Western provinces along the Iraq border, and Tehran is spent decades keeping that region under heavy military suppression.
[SPEAKER_00]: That tension boiled over in 2025 when nationwide protest broke out in Kurdish cities and provinces.
[SPEAKER_00]: So Kamichaa, Kurdistan, West Azerbaijan, observed those pre-t-a protest was severe intensity.
[SPEAKER_00]: But by January of this year, Iran's major Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party Iran, the Kurdistan Freedom Party, the Kurdistan Free Life Party, and multiple comaloff factions, did something they historically struggle to do, they actually unified.
[SPEAKER_00]: They united.
[SPEAKER_00]: They formed the coalition of political forces of Iran in Kurdistan.
[SPEAKER_00]: Their stated goal was explicit, help topple the regime and assume authority in Iranian Kurdistan.
[SPEAKER_00]: The moment American military action against Iran began and on February 28th, that action came.
[SPEAKER_00]: CNN reported citing multiple sources that the CIA had indeed been actively armed in Kurdish forces specifically to foment a popular uprising inside Iran with the Trump administration direct talks with Kurdish leaders based in Iraq.
[SPEAKER_00]: by March 7th, Kurdish forces together with Israeli and U.S. forces destroyed 40 separate sites in the city, a sun and dodge alone with additional hits across half a dozen other towns, specifically targeting IRGC barracks, intelligence facilities, and border command centers.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, it got so intense that reportedly IRGC in border guard units in parts of Kerman Shah,
[SPEAKER_00]: the current trial province, they were forced to evacuate their own bases and hide inside civilian buildings like hospitals just to survive the strikes.
[SPEAKER_00]: And this didn't end when the shooting slowed down.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just weeks ago on July 1st, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan confirmed that six of its own Peshmerga fighters were killed in direct clashes with the
[SPEAKER_00]: Fox News also reported IRGC losses in the same stretch of fighting near Mahabhaad and Pavey.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, officials cautioned against calling this a full-blown Kurdish uprising just yet, but it was clear that this wasn't a routine border skirmish either.
[SPEAKER_00]: Something had clearly shifted.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, here's the strategic piece that ties every front and this war together.
[SPEAKER_00]: While the IRGC is absorbing U.S. air strikes in the south, managing the naval blockade in the Gulf, now fending off Ukrainian strikes tied to their Russia supply chain and suppressing growing unrest in Tehran and this Vahana Mashaad, they simply don't have the manpower to flood the western mountains and crush the Kurdish uprising the way they historically have.
[SPEAKER_00]: What the IRGCs generals did not anticipate was that this uprising would have the staying power to outlast the war itself, that it would keep killing IRGC personnel months after a ceasefire, and that it would do so with sustained American intelligence backing while Tehran is simultaneously being squeezed from the Gulf and now the Caspian.
[SPEAKER_00]: All of this will Iran can't pay its own troops, keep in mind.
[SPEAKER_00]: With their currency, the real and an absolute freefall, that means Iran simply can't hold its Western provinces.
[SPEAKER_00]: If I urge you see, troops don't get paid, they don't fight.
[SPEAKER_00]: And Iran that can't hold its Western provinces cannot maintain the myth of revolutionary invincibility that's kept their regime standing for 47 years.
[SPEAKER_00]: Once that myth cracks in Kurdistan, it doesn't stay in Kurdistan.
[SPEAKER_00]: It spreads to Tehran, to Isfahan, to Mashaad everywhere.
[SPEAKER_00]: So here's the bottom line gang, what you're watching right now isn't a pause because the war is ending.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a pause because Trump is giving Tehran one last chance to fold before Carg Island stops being an AI-generated image and becomes a real target.
[SPEAKER_00]: Meanwhile, Ukraine is bleeding Iran's Russia supply lines in the Caspian, and thousands of Kurdish fighters are still exhausting an IRGC manpower in the mountains.
[SPEAKER_00]: Every front Iran has left is stretched thinner than the last, and a regime fighting on four fronts faces a certain and inevitable collapse.
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for listening to this episode of the Turley Talks Podcast.
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