[SPEAKER_02]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_02]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's up, everyone?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome in to another episode of the toolshed podcast, brought to you by Rotoballar.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 461.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining us.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: And joining me as always is my co-host, Mr. Toby Shalman.
[SPEAKER_01]: Toby, how's it going, man?
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm doing good, Eric.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, me and you both are ready for this week to be over.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been a long one.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it feels good to be on here again, making up for a week without being able to record in episodes.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's good to be back here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we we told y'all we'd be back later this week and here we are second episode of the week Now we went over the MLB draft and some early FY PD rankings discussion in the episode earlier this week So if you're in Dynastie leagues and already thinking about FY PDs another you know most of those rafts are a little bit You know
[SPEAKER_01]: further out a few months from now, but seven to two, we're only to talk about it, never to early to start preparing for it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you go back and check that one out and we're heading to the majors in this episode, go to some hot players over the last 30 days.
[SPEAKER_01]: Some guys that are performing well, both offensively and on the mound.
[SPEAKER_01]: We got 14 names to go over and this one seven
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[SPEAKER_01]: Toby is at T. Schillman report.
[SPEAKER_01]: I am an Eric Cross MLB and these show is at Toolshed Pod.
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[SPEAKER_01]: What you could find at Rotabar.com slash.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so let's start with the hitters and the guy that's going to take in the baseball world by storm here the last month or so will lead us off and that is Pittsburgh out Fielder and rookie outfielder with that is Merlin Valdez who is just hitting I've so many home runs it's like I can't even keep keep up with all the home runs he's been hitting I mean not any in the last couple of days the last two games or there's double header yesterday he didn't go yard but
[SPEAKER_01]: day before that, day before that, two days before that, you get the idea a lot of home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so far, hit his first 131 plate appearances, 13 at that, 13 home runs have already left the yard off the bat of his bro and Valdez, and he's slashing 22, 382, 717.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a very interesting start, Toby, because, yeah, there's a ton of home runs so far and slash on looks great and all, but he's also striking out at a 38% clip so far, so pretty interesting start, I mean, obviously this Banzian, you know, McGuire, so is that esk.
[SPEAKER_01]: power-paces, probably I could keep up, but this is a very good power-bad who had a bunch of hormones in the minor leagues, but what do you make of this hot start and that pretty stark differences between the power output and that super high carry?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think it is just a hot start and I'm not trying to take anything away from Esmeralyn Valdez when I say that, but we've seen him do this type of thing before.
[SPEAKER_00]: Me and you talked about it multiple times this week, especially off recording with the loud AFL start e-head and I think it was like eight homers and like eight games or something like that kind of leveled out there towards the end of that fall campaign, but it's just just not really sustainable production.
[SPEAKER_00]: It seems like, I mean,
[SPEAKER_00]: If it is, that would be awesome because you know, we are closer to the end of the season, then we were previously, but a near 60% hard hit rate and 30% feral percent.
[SPEAKER_00]: It does not something I think he's going to be able to keep up and when, you know, 40% I believe it is over the last 30 days of his fly balls are going over the fence for home runs.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's,
[SPEAKER_00]: kind of this video game number is like that's the best way I think I could describe what he's been doing right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Super fun to watch when he gets hot he's definitely one of the more scary power bats that you could face in the league and that's pretty cool to say given the amount of service time he's put in but loud start, hot start, do I think it's sustainable and not necessarily but super fun to watch.
[SPEAKER_01]: Man, this Pittsburgh team in general, it's somehow they're just scoring a bunch of runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was looking, it's probably closer a week ago than so much of it's changed, but at that time, I forget who was one and who was two, but the top two scoring teams in the major leagues were the Nationals and the Pirates, which, you know, that's exactly what we all expected coming into the season, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And no, not the Dodgers, not the Yankees, Philly's, no, it's the Nationals and the Kits for Pirates.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, Valdez obviously playing a big part in that lately.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, yeah, this obviously is not sustainable at the same time, you know, I always kind of thought that Valdez could kind of, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: And this guy that always hit a, you know, for a good power in the minor leagues, not like elite power, but no above average to plus power, you know, he had 22 bombs in 2024 20 bombs in 2025 and then he hit 13 this year and 56 games in July before he got caught up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So always been hitting for power contact rates have been, you know, generally, you know, below average, but not terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's going to be a guy that, you know, creators in the batting average department.
[SPEAKER_01]: But at the same time, he's got to get that strike out right and check, you know, always a little bit high in the minor leagues, but never was super high.
[SPEAKER_01]: Outside of 2024, but last year was 2024, 0.6% so I guess I think you can, you know, be a maybe below average contact rate guy, but, you know, enough power to make it work, hitting 250, 30 bombs, I think that's definitely possible.
[SPEAKER_01]: So long term, could he still be a guy that's, you know, a borderline,
[SPEAKER_01]: couple hundred to one fifty sure, but right now I'd be entertaining sell high on first and dying to leagues is so I'm wants to give you a nice return there because they're fully bought in on thought as being the next elite slugger in this game, I'd be fine trading him, but yeah, still a good power back, but yeah, this has been a really ridiculous start, but he'll come back on the earth.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's bound to happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's just the laws of baseball right there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Speaking of those nationals, we got a pair of nationals up next year starting with Curtis Mead who, you know, former, I mean, not elite prospect, but he was a, you know, top 100, probably top 50 prospect at one point a handful of years back, but then his first, you know, few years in the major leagues just could not.
[SPEAKER_01]: put it all together, but this year with the nationals, he absolutely has been doing so.
[SPEAKER_01]: 318 plate appearances so far, 258, 349, 509, 509, slash line, 17 bombs and six steels in those 318 plate appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: I started a lot of hot, he had a really good May, where I had a 400 LBP, 507 slug.
[SPEAKER_01]: Did hit six elements in June, but also hit 196, so that average was kind of
[SPEAKER_01]: but off to a very hot start in July, getting 400, 468, 709 with 10 extra base hits already this month, three of them leave in the yard, a couple of steals in 62 plate appearances and Toby, I mean, it's not like as loud of a profile as with with the dialed as, but you look at meads profile, it's pretty, I mean, I'll say he brings basically zero defensive value.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, maybe he's
[SPEAKER_01]: the bat, pretty solid across the board, you know, a bunch of above average metrics, no notable red flags here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So are you buying in what we've been seeing from Curtis Meat?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's one of the more fun breakouts that I think we've seen so far this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's funny, because you look at the 17 homers, the 509's log.
[SPEAKER_00]: You think he's probably hits the ball a lot harder than he really does.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's honestly the only
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to even say red flag because it's still above average.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just not fantastic.
[SPEAKER_00]: But lately, you know, he has been slugging more.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the clip is over 600 over the last 30 days.
[SPEAKER_00]: Pulse the ball or ridiculous amount and if you just look at his spray chart.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has the most success when he does pull the ball.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's great to see that he's still maintaining that in the later part of this season.
[SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't really leveled out at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's the coolest part about his breakout season.
[SPEAKER_00]: And like you said, he doesn't offer much defensively, but he burrows the ball up pretty often.
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't chase.
[SPEAKER_00]: He rarely whiffs.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is just pretty well-rounded bat that has somehow made the adjustments he needed to make with the nationals.
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, one of the most fun breakouts
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, me is a pretty good example of just the fact that some of them I've said a million times that development is not linear.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this was a guy that, you know, he's still only 25 years old, but had a couple, you know, rough years running up to the major leagues and.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not all of these guys are going to succeed right away, and how many times have we seen the mid to late 20s break out?
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen it actually a lot, especially over the last handful of years.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've been seeing those types of breaks up breakouts even more.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, me being 25 years old, and just doing a lot of things well under the hood.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, 11% lock rate, K rate below 20% above average quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not like, again, not super loud.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, talking 11% barrel rate, 43% hard hit rate, you know, pretty good contact rates as well nearly a 90% in zone contact rate leading the way and it's all a pretty solid angles too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm was never a huge meat guy in the minor leagues, but you know, I'm kind of digging what we're seeing out of him now again, not a star, not a guy that's probably going to be, you know, ever going to be your starting third basement for fantasy purposes, but
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, maybe he can settle in and it's a solid corner in field option for your fantasy teams and moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: They got it and you know, go above 20 home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe even give you a.
[SPEAKER_01]: eight to 10 steals with a solid average in OPP as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe he even does take into that back end.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not that I'm kind of talking about what he could do.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, third base, it falls off pretty hard, especially with guys like Breggman being not so good this year, Riley has been terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Westburg has been hurt.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the other back end of the top 10, third base actually is kind of wide open.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: Who's to say that you know, me keeps doing this and in Breggman and Riley continue their downward ascension.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe meat is back in top ten third baseman.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that could be about possible range of outcomes there.
[SPEAKER_01]: for him, but yeah, a lot of solid stuff under the hood here for Curtis made and his teammate Luis Garcia Jr is just mashing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I never thought I'd see, you know, or use the words mashing and Luis Garcia Jr in the same sentence, even though he wasn't a, you know, a bad power bat, but he just never thought if he was a masher, but this year, he's on pace for about like 32, 33 home runs was a pretty good
[SPEAKER_01]: quality of contact metrics and he's been going especially, you know, powerful over the last 30 days.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got 10 home runs over the last 30 days.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is tied for third in the major leagues with Hunter Goodman and the only two guys ahead of him are Ezreal and Valdez with 11 and Junior Camernero with 14.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I
[SPEAKER_01]: And top of those 10 home runs he's driven in 23 runs 342 395 7 97 slash over the last 30 days.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's up to 21 bombs for the season with a 280 311 550 slash line.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this guy's always been super aggressive, you know, career high walk rate is
[SPEAKER_01]: 5.6% a few years back, which is still way below average, but he's always kept the key rate in check.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's put the bat on the ball and then we're seeing the last two years really, him take his power game to the next level, especially with this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think that this power bat here with Garcia, like the fact that he could be
[SPEAKER_01]: a 30-homer guy after kind of being in the mid-departines or the most part early in the career.
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think this is kind of this like a one-year thing, Toby, or do you think that, you know, Garcia could maybe just take that next step and stay there?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's more likely that he's here to stay, honestly, because when you compare it, you know, the last three seasons from 24 to 26.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's just continued to hit the ball harder.
[SPEAKER_00]: The average EV just skyrocketed this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there must be so much adjustment that he's made there where he's found something that works for him and it's just been even more obvious the last month or so and nearly 50% of his flat balls are going over the fence for home runs.
[SPEAKER_00]: He won't go up there looking to walk it all really.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean he's gonna chase outside the zone quite a bit and that's not something that's gotten better over time at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: sustained decent contact rates.
[SPEAKER_00]: Keep that average exit velocity pretty high.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't really see a way that he can't continue to take steps forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: out to obviously have any from her powers been great but he didn't have to sacrifice any any contact or you know have his approach get a lot worse to be it's already very aggressive so that has really changed but I mean his contact rates in zone has dropped half a percent but it's still 80 and a half percent but overall contact is actually up to percent from 78.3 to 80.3 at this season said that's really encouraging the sea I love seeing that
[SPEAKER_01]: when a hitter is able to tap into more power without sacrificing contact is a lot of times you'll see a guy that kind of trades a little bit of one to get a little bit of the other but that hasn't been the case here with Luis Garcia so yeah he's a guy that I think he maybe is not an annual 30 homework guy but
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, maybe he's taking that next step from being a mid to upper teens guide to a mid 20s or mid to upper 20s home run bats and He's kind of shifted over the first base here and it looks like, you know, that absolutely will help the additional power at first base And he'll fit in a little bit better there, but it looks like he's been actually like last couple years looking to really hit the ball in the air more consistently
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the air rate has ticked up a few percentage points.
[SPEAKER_01]: So last couple of seasons, he's pulling the ball a lot more than he ever did.
[SPEAKER_01]: By 2024, he had a 26% pull rate that jumped to 38% last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then a hair over 40% this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the pull air rate was kind of in the 89% range.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's like 15, 16%, which is kind of around league average at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, hits, you know, matches fastballs, it's breaking all as well, you know, off speeds not the greatest, but at least he doesn't have a high whiff right against those pitches too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, outside of the aggression, which he has shown that he can make work, yeah, I think there's a lot of good here, you know, with Garcia, I mean, he's not stealing as many bags as he used to, I guess it's like the one thing you could nitpick here, he's only got four steals this year, he was 14 last year, 22 year before that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you'll take it when the result could be got as hit in 280 with 30 to 35 home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think you can be too mad.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only given you a seven or eight seals.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, nationalists are absolutely rolling here and Curtis Meade and Luis Garcia Junior definitely have been two reasons why.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see that continue pretty fun offense there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously they see J. Abrams and James Wood.
[SPEAKER_01]: So pretty fun offense.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're building there in Washington.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now we hop out to the Colorado Rockies, Jake McCarthy, who I was lucky enough to draft and won or two leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have him and I think one, maybe even two Dianic leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I picked him up in another league.
[SPEAKER_01]: I do have a few shares across the board here of Jake McCarthy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Got to have some intrigue, few years ago, I mean, 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he had an eight home or 25 steel year where he hit 285.
[SPEAKER_01]: and just under 500 plate appearances, so entering 2025, I remember in, you know, fantasy draft season, he was kind of like a trendy, you know, mid to late round outfielder being taken that year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Did not work out.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all that hype got squashed, but this year he's doing a damn good job of building it back.
[SPEAKER_01]: The 305, 348, 511 slash line, 10 home runs and 17 steels in a 334 plate appearances, and over the last 30 days, 5 home runs and 6 steels with a 327, 376, 594 slash line and a 150,
[SPEAKER_01]: a near like 2035 you know home run stolen base pace right now look at the profile does you know it's not a super exciting profile there's a lot of blue and in terms of these sub-on sliders but
[SPEAKER_01]: He knows how to maximize his power, what power he does have.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, okay, what do you make of this profile with Jacob McCarthy?
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think this is more, you know, he's just hot again and he's just to be one of those inconstistened guys that is career or you think there's a some more staying power this time around.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm really just always cautious to say that the power is here to stay when we're getting a lot of these numbers at course field.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think for the type of profile he has given the fact that he really just kills you on the basis and in the field of the sprint speed.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I just don't really think the power is here to stay.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's more of just a BABIP demon type of guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's just going to kill you by putting the ball in play.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean compared to the rest of the guys we're talking about today, he does really well.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's gonna continue to be successful, especially in course field like I already mentioned, but when you look at the satcast numbers and how hard he's hitting the ball, the exit velocities, it's bottom of the pack, compared to the rest of the guys that we're talking about right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I don't know if the power is here to stay, but his profile, he doesn't really need it to be successful in this last month's fan has really just proved that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know, for a, for a currency, I feel like, you know, him getting the ball in the air and pulling it more consistently has been nice to see and think that definitely kind of aids it, you know, might as well take advantage of your home ball park, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, going from Arizona to Colorado, you know, bit of a difference in terms of a terms of how the ball flies.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, he has air rates up a nearly 10% this year, pull air rates up 6% you know, from 10 and a half to 16 and a half
[SPEAKER_01]: So I feel like he's a guy that just given the angles he does hit the ball at, I think he could still be a double digit homerang guy going forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's going to be like 15 to 20, maybe we were like 10 to 12, 10 to 13 somewhere like that, you know, but he does make a good amount of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's always been in the above average contact rate guy and, you know, phenomenal athlete, you know, one of the better sprint speeds in all the baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, that, you know, gets on base and, you know, it's for a good average.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, that in that regard, I think there's, you know, still some value to be had here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think he's a, you know, go back to being a guy that's not usable, but yeah, I don't think this is going to be much more power upside in the tank here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's pretty, and I want to say bottom of the, well, I'm kind of close to bottom of the barrel actually, but, um, not like the one of the worst in the league, but he's definitely one of the bottom
[SPEAKER_01]: quality of contact, I mean, it's 25 and a half percent heart hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, but if you can keep hitting ball in the air and pulling it at the course, I mean, he held right in the 10 to 15 home runs just because it's cores and he's hitting the ball in the air.
[SPEAKER_01]: So definitely, I like the McCarthy, but I'd be.
[SPEAKER_01]: If I had him, I think he's one of those guys where I just kind of write it out.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not sure if you're able to like sell high on a McCarthy, at least that's the degree that would make it worthwhile, but if I did not have him, I'm not sure if I'd be going out actively trying to trade for the McCarthy of that makes sense.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of like one of those guys, if you have him hold, if you don't have him, and I won't be kind of like, I won't be sending an offers for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: next guy another call retto rocky kyle caros fifth round pick back in 2023 which i could swear he was drafted like 2021 i thought it was many more years ago than that but guess that you know time flies especially when you're you know need to even baseball stats and rankings all the time but
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 23, 5th round pick.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got to the majors a little bit last year, didn't really do much.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this year, certain really find this footing, especially over the last 30 days.
[SPEAKER_01]: And 92 play appearances over the last 30 days, 293, 424, 587, slash line, 15 bombs, 15 bombs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Shoot me, 5 homerons, up in saying, 5 homerons, and a 159 WRC+, 15% walkerate to this 18 and
[SPEAKER_01]: as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So really starting to get the ball in the air and kind of utilize that power a bit more.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he was a guy that I remember in the minor leagues thinking like, all right, this guy is never going to probably be a stud, but I thought the bat was solid and he's going to kind of showing that right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what do you think here of Kyle Keros, I got that, I got even earlier this year, it wasn't only do a much so really all of his success pretty much has been over the last 30 days or maybe even like five, six weeks or so, so what do you what do you make here of Kyle Keros Toby?
[SPEAKER_00]: This is just seems to be a guy that is young and is continuing to refine his approach.
[SPEAKER_00]: As he sees more big league pitching, I thought he was much older than 23, and I'm sure you did as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: But, I mean, he's always walked at a pretty good clip in this year, it's been 87th percentile.
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't chase really at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: And over the last month, I mean, it's just been more of that.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's walked at a clip of, I believe, like over 15%.
[SPEAKER_00]: everything else about the bat, you know, again, it's core.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's going to look a bit better than it does under the hood when you're just watching the games on TV, but average TV has been terrible.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's 90th percentile.
[SPEAKER_00]: Exit velocities haven't been bad as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I feel like there is still a lot of room to grow here, especially due to the fact that he is only 23 years old.
[SPEAKER_00]: I remember there were stretches earlier in the year where he did pretty good as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm just looking for him to put it kind of all together a little bit more consistently here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so the metrics are, you know, again, there's no metric here that stands out to you where you're like, oh, wow, that's phenomenal, but he's above average in terms of quality of contact right now 43% hard hit rate pretty solid.
[SPEAKER_01]: kind of does a lot of things well kind of feels maybe a little similar to like a Curtis Mead where it just does a lot of things decently across the across the board nothing stands out at you but at the end of the day you can kind of put it all together and it's a pretty decent little hitter especially you know put him in coars with that you know that great hitting environment so yeah I'm if I had to pick I think I'm what I'm higher on me than I am on on keros but I think keros I think there's some legitimacy here
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we'll go and see if he can kind of keep the skull and rest of the season, but if he does, and maybe he's got to have a little bit of a helium behind his name heading into 2027.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, we've go from a couple of Rockies and now we're going back to the East Coast.
[SPEAKER_01]: Going to Miami, Harry Bertou Hernandez, who I think is having a sneaky good year that it's just not being talked about enough in 254 plate appearances this season, 246 319 474 slash line 13 bombs and seven steals and a lot of really good quality of contact metrics as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Over the last 30 days, he hit six bombs 282-364-628 slash line in a 163-WRC plus and then he looked at under the hood.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been looking at a lot of metrics for especially a younger players this year and he's just been standing out in terms of everything to do.
[SPEAKER_01]: with quality of contact currently running a hard hit rate around 52% 13% barrel rate 92 and a half mile an hour average EV is one of the top x slugs in baseball at 513 x will be cons 453 so you just really hitting the ball hard pretty good you know bat speed as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But there's some red flags here, I mean, with rates a bit high, but outside of that, I mean, and making contact obviously is super important, I think that's why is is betting averages not super great right now, but not terrible either at 246, but
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll say to that Toby, I mean, the key rate, it's not bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's walking a little bit, chase rates actually pretty decent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's a lot to like here with Hernandez, still only 26 years old, you know, showed us a little bit last year at a 266-347-438 slash last year with 10 bombs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe this is just him building off of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So where are you at here on Hernandez?
[SPEAKER_00]: I really like what I see and, you know, I went to a Marlons game late last year when they were planning into the Tigers in school was pitching.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was that start where I think school messed up his oblique or something like that late in the season and they had to kind of just like take him with a lot of precaution for the rest of the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: As soon as we sat down, Hernandez took him up for a home run and I think if you dig deep on my Twitter account, you'll probably find that video.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's frame at five foot eleven one ninety five the fact that he's put in this type of power out there is really cool to see Yardie mentioned the hard hit rate and all of the EVs barrel numbers whatever, but this is just a guy who when he pulls the ball in the air It's just gonna hurt you really bad and if you can execute a pitch outside to him
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to have a pretty easy time, but if you give him something to hit on the inner part of the plate, he's going to make you pay for it.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think this is just a guy who knows where he's going to be most successful in the zone.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's found a good feel for that.
[SPEAKER_00]: EVs and everything else have shown for it, and I mean, this is just a really fun hitter to watch right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like I said, the contact rates are a bit below average.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's 70 and a half percent in zone around 67% overall, but those aren't terrible metrics.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they're both a few percentage votes below average, but given the power he has, you know, which is easily plus, then also throw in the the bad of all angles.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a 22% pull air rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: a 44 and a half percent pull raise.
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets the ball in the air.
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets it to that pull side, as you mentioned.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of his home runs are either a center or left this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you could say one of those was the right center, but not really.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he kind of has a pretty solid spray chart as to where he likes to get that power.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think maybe he's ever more than this 245, 250-ish hitter, but I think there's a lot of legitimacy here to the power where he could be a 30-homer guy over a full season.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll also adding some steals.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a pretty solid runner, which I think flies under the radar here as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was never really a huge zone-based guy, but maybe he's a guy that gives you a 10-steel.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a long 25-bombs and average that you can live with.
[SPEAKER_01]: Dig the profile here with Hernandez.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not perfect, but there's a lot to like here.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last hitter, which is the biggest aim on the list, CJ Abrams, who's been really, really hot.
[SPEAKER_01]: You just had a four hit game on Wednesday, the bunch of home runs lately as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so over the last 30 days, CJ Abrams, 286, 337, 595, with seven home runs and a 146 WRC plus in 95 played appearances and now he's on pace.
[SPEAKER_01]: I had to tweet about him earlier today, you know, on Wednesday or no,
[SPEAKER_01]: And when we're recording this, he's on pace outside of doubles and steels, it's really set career highs across the board and hits run, run score, FBI, home runs, walks, you know, all the slash line metrics, et cetera, et cetera.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, we've seen Toby, you know, we've seen some these elite spurts from Abrams and he kind of falls off or he has that issue.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had it ended
[SPEAKER_01]: But this kind of feels like there's a more staying power with Abrams especially now that he's getting for a little bit more power So do you think I mean, I have him just in so much up 25 in my dance he ranks these rank 24 right now Maybe 25th in the dot.
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think that we can maybe trust Abrams this time around?
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, this guy is finally here to stay as a top 25 caliber player.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like do you think that that's what we're getting out of him moving forward?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think absolutely at this point, I mean, he's seem to make improvements that have helped him get to that point.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's finally pulling the ball in the air a lot more, and I feel like a broken record saying that, but that's just the truth with him is he's continuously gotten better at that.
[SPEAKER_00]: The biggest thing for me is just barreling the ball up more, too.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if he can just continue to do that, I mean, he's such an athletic shortstop and still only 25 years old.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you got to think there's still so much more power for him to tap into his time goes on here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean, if he could just keep the strike out, we're hit around the average walk around an average clip.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I don't see how he can't be a top 25 player.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too because I think this is like one thing that was like a massive jump under the whoever you're like, oh, that's the reason why, but there's like a few areas where he just means some little bit improvements here and there, I think kind of this kind of go together into having this, I don't know, I don't know, I call it a breakout, he's been pretty good last few years, but this kind of like this step opportunities of overall production does you mention the barrel rate that's, you know, gone up to a Kurt Highmark.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also walking at career best clip as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, 8.5% doesn't seem like it's phenomenal, but it's better than the five to six percent range where he has been.
[SPEAKER_01]: So being a little more patient, waiting out those pictures that he could really do damage on.
[SPEAKER_01]: And also, like I said, you mentioned, just getting the ball in the ear, and work it's just the late, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: that pull air rates, a career best, the air rates, a career best mark as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, kind of just throw all those in together and you have this kind of step up in terms of the power production and he's still hitting pretty solid contact, you know, 82 and happens to in zone, always been aggressive, but he kind of makes it work.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I was kind of a skeptic of his a little bit just because he was really inconsistent and I just don't dig that, but he's been a lot more consistent this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, yeah, that's why I put him top 25.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't him and Jordan Walker kind of miss somewhere range where I think we're kind of finally seeing them these two guys who kind of put it all together and you know, show that these guys are going to be two, you know, elites offensive talents for fantasy in this game.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm definitely buying what Abrams is selling this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just stay away from the casino CJ.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's all we have at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: Moving over to the pitching side of things.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll start with the guy that actually just went to night.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I forgot he was as you go in tonight.
[SPEAKER_01]: Troy Melton with the Detroit Tigers.
[SPEAKER_01]: Tonight was pretty solid.
[SPEAKER_01]: He did walk for in five
[SPEAKER_01]: but overall here in ten starts as a one ninety five year ray in a zero point nine five whip and you know until we pretty solid across the board here as well and I know I was talking with
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it was Paul Spore, you know, this, you know, past off season out in Arizona, we were out there and I think when I had him on tool shed later on, this past off season, we talked to some pitching, or he was pretty big on Troy Melon.
[SPEAKER_01]: Look, there was a lot of people like in, within the Detroit Tigers had a circle that were pretty high on Melon.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now you're kind of seeing why with this, you know, the great ratios, not a super high key rate, but he's near a strike
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I said, a lot of decent metrics under the hood here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So do you think we're seeing the beginning of a breakout here for Troy Melon?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think so.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we're right in that kind of sweet spot where I feel like when you get pictures in there mid 20s, we're starting to figure something out at the big league level.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's more often than not that some of those guys are really able to stick.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's what we're seeing with Milton here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, he has a really solid six pitch mix.
[SPEAKER_00]: He does a little bit of everything really well.
[SPEAKER_00]: You already mentioned the capersendage, just not
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, well above average to above average.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you could just maintain that, I mean, I don't understand why he wouldn't be here to stay.
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of pitches and different offerings that are going to keep hitters on their toes.
[SPEAKER_00]: Misses barrels a lot, doesn't walk a lot of guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, this is a guy that I would personally want on my staff any day the week.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I'm definitely digging Trimellon right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I honestly think there's some room for improvement in that straight gut rate department.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just given, you know, you mentioned the deep pitch mix.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, a lot of those pitches, they five of those six have a whiff rate above 26%.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got three above, you know, two, two above 30%.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, really outside of the foreseamer, which is that 20 and a half percent whiff rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: All the other pitches, he can miss bats with.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you look at, he's getting strikeouts and all of those.
[SPEAKER_01]: I love seeing that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I forget who I was talking about the other day
[SPEAKER_01]: It was like, oh, this, this guy is pretty good fun, but you're going to get really getting straight out to two pitches.
[SPEAKER_01]: I figured who the pitcher was, it would come to me at some point, but this guy and Troy Melton can definitely go at six different offerings in any county.
[SPEAKER_01]: He mixes them up very well.
[SPEAKER_01]: He throws them in the both varieties and lefties, so it's a true six pitch mix here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm definitely digging it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He throws hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's in 96 with the four seamer 957 with the sinker that I come at with, you know, low 90s cutter, you know, he's got an upper 80s splitter, mid 80s slider, upper 80s curves.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, this a lot of different velocities and a lot of different, you know, movement profiles here and that he'll throw in any count, the ready to lefties.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, like you were saluting to like, he's coming at you with all these pitches and it's just hard
[SPEAKER_01]: It kind of, you know, all right, I'm sitting on this pitch where he has so many pictures he can go to.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I love that he can mix like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of good here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the key rate can tick up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Guys, this stuff I got in Diancel League's that would be looking to the buy right now because, you know, I didn't, you know, pretty good frame.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's 64 to 10, you know.
[SPEAKER_01]: Good walk rate as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of light here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he's not going to be the next stud arm, but yeah, could he be at the top 30 to 40 starter for fantasy, but we forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think that's a possibility, which we're melting.
[SPEAKER_01]: So definitely digging what he's doing lately here.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this next arm going back to Pittsburgh here's another Pittsburgh player, but on the pitching side this time, Jared Jones seems to be kind of rounding back into form, you know, showed some intrigue back in 2024, especially earlier in that season, I think if I recall correctly, he did fall off later in the season, which really kind of hurt the overall numbers, but, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: The last few starts for Jared Jones have been really, really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, his last start of June, he did allow three earned in four and two thirds, but he started to go a little bit longer in July and his outings here.
[SPEAKER_01]: First outing of July against the Philadelphia Phillies, four innings, two hits, one run, two walks, six k's, and then on the eighth against Atlanta, six no hit innings,
[SPEAKER_01]: with eight strikeouts and then his most recent start on the eight teeth against Cleveland five innings three hits one run one walk nine case.
[SPEAKER_01]: So do you think this is just Jared Jones, you know, speaking off the Ross to obviously miss so much time.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is Sony as nine starts this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So now that he's starting to get kind of a splitting back underneath them.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now he's starting to show that upside that we saw a couple years ago, you know, the lofty ceiling, the really elite stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like if you think Jones is really rounding in the form of Toby and maybe this is gonna be the next,
[SPEAKER_01]: A speech or go along with Paul schemes.
[SPEAKER_01]: How high are you on Jared Jones?
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm kind of in the middle right now just being a little bit more cautious because he's coming off of injury.
[SPEAKER_00]: ERA still isn't phenomenal.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to just bank on ERA here, but.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even when you pop the hood a little bit more he doesn't miss barrels a lot doesn't limit hard hit contact very well And he also doesn't get a lot of ground ball contact as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: So over a longer stretch I don't think that's a recipe for a ton of success there, but what is really encouraging for me is seeing the Fastball veto back to being pretty solid and
[SPEAKER_00]: actually when it comes to the hard hit numbers and barrel rate and stuff like that I was looking at 2024 and it's gotten a little bit better so I mean it's still in the middle just being cautious but great to see a miss and bat's great to see the VLO up I just hope that he can stay healthy if he does I'm gonna buy more and as time goes on here
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I think it's too early to kind of go crazy over him, but I'm pretty excited.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got that throws really hard 90 and a half miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, even if he even has changed up, it's 93 and a half miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, this guy kind of thinks, man, he's like, and I try to be misarrows here, something with all these hard pitches, but 90 mile an hour slider, 85 mile an hour curve, ball that one, it's been hit around a little bit, but he can miss bat slider change up both around
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, definitely small sample size, really just when these last three starts, where he's looked like the old Jared Jones in this rookie year, where he was, you know, everyone was going gaggle over him.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think some of that hype is starting to really build back up here, but I guess a quick question that wouldn't even have on here, but I just thought of it, who, let's fast forward, like, let's just go like three years, who is the better pitcher for fantasy?
[SPEAKER_01]: Jared Jones were Bubba Chandler.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, oh actually knowing you know what I'm actually going to take it on a step further rank 1 2 3 those two throw in Brax and Ashcraft rank those three guys three or some now Oh, man, I'm probably going to lean towards Ashcraft 1 and then 2 and 3
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to say Jones to in Chandler 3, I haven't really bought into much on what I've seen from Bubba Chandler since he's come up and I hope he gets better, there's still a lot of time for him to get better, but I'm going to go with that as my 1, 2, 3.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I also have Chandler at three.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not saying I don't like him, but I don't, I feel like less optimistic about Chandler.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's really good, get really good stuff, but I think it's gonna take a little bit longer for him to kind of put it all together and reach potentially reach the upside.
[SPEAKER_01]: So as I was thinking this, I'm kind of going back and forth.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll lean Jones over Ashcraft, but I think it's close.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think those two are solidly my one-two for right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: That doesn't mean China can't get up above them, it absolutely could, but yeah, really exciting.
[SPEAKER_01]: If they're able to, I mean, this Pittsburgh city will be able to, but if they're able to keep all these guys together, that's to be a really fun rotation.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it already is, but it's just gonna keep building as these guys get older.
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
[SPEAKER_01]: Jared Jones looking really really good right now next name on the list.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not quite as fuzzy of a name, but Christian Scott was also a, you know, maybe a top six to ten pitching prospect at one point and now, you know, kind of sh-
[SPEAKER_01]: Gonna find out his footing and getting on a roll here over the last several weeks.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, his last outing, which is actually yesterday, let me pull that game log up here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it was yesterday.
[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't the greatest.
[SPEAKER_01]: Three and two thirds, four hits, three runs, three walks, six K is.
[SPEAKER_01]: But before that, he had five and two thirds,
[SPEAKER_01]: five shutout innings with five keys against the royals.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it really was looking good the last few starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, for the year, I mean, it's been a little up and down as he's come back up to me since so much time, but you know, 14 stars with a 313 ERA, 1, 2, 6 whip, and a near 29% strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so overall numbers are pretty good here with Christian Scott coming back after missing all 2025 and a good chunk of 2024 as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what do you make here of Christian Scott Toby.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we're just starting to see him finally coming to his own at the Big League level and it's been a long time coming because I feel like.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even three years ago, almost I was watching him in the minor leagues in Syracuse, and now to see him in the bigs actually put in together a pretty solid season here, and to see that the Metz said that he's quote unquote untouchable at the trade deadline, makes me pretty optimistic for what we can see in the future.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's punching guys out at a really effective clip, he gets a lot of extension limits.
[SPEAKER_00]: hard hit baseball's really well added a couple of pitches as well to his pitch mix since 2024.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think the bets are just going to keep tinkering with him and I mean he's been there guy through and through.
[SPEAKER_00]: It seems like so fifth round pick back in 2021.
[SPEAKER_00]: So they're going to stick with him and you know honestly I do trust them to get the most out of him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I've always liked Christian Scott.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'd love to see him get more ground balls and obviously the durability is still a little bit of concern with all the he's dealt with all the time he's missed, but
[SPEAKER_01]: the talent's always been pretty solid and in your starting to see that now and he mentioned the other different pitch mix here he really added a cutter over last couple years I mean he threw a cutter I guess you can say he threw a cutter on 2024 through it twice but now that's the third most used offering in his pitch mix at 17.3% he's still going to predominantly force him guy about 50% of the time
[SPEAKER_01]: and then sweeper around 22% of the time, but those are both pretty sought offerings.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's thrown harder than he did back in 2024 by a little over one tick from 94 to 95.4 this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sweeper is missing bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those forcing one of the sweepers where he gets the basketball
[SPEAKER_01]: Mixing a splitter and a sinker here and there as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So overall he's getting the strikeouts, you know, walk rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not even terribly, you know, concerned with that 10 and a half percent walk rate, given all the time he missed.
[SPEAKER_01]: And given what we saw from him in the minor league, because he was always a pretty good guy at limiting the walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, we'll have to see some more ground balls and get that walk rate down a little bit moving forward as he starts getting more and more.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, further away from surgery here, but definitely a lot to like here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm not as high on him as I am with like a chair of Jones, but, you know, I've always been a Christian Scott guy, and I think he can be a solid arm profanity.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he gets into like that Tanner-bybe range or something like that, where it's like a good like SP34 for your fantasy team.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this definitely where Scott could wind up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: Good to see him back pitching well after missing so much time.
[SPEAKER_01]: I hear with the men that be a lot going right with the match this year, but Christian Scott is kind of like a, a little bit of a bright spot for them.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, keep it right there in the nationally east and go to Kate Gavali.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, kind of a similar career trajectory here for Gavali who's actually the same age.
[SPEAKER_01]: As Christian Scott, they're both 27 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then Christian Scott did, but Cologue came back last year for 10 starts and now this year 22 stars 358 ERA129 whip 127k is 110 and 2 thirds innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: We look at over the his last several outings here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now he's gone.
[SPEAKER_01]: So at the five of his last six outings, he's gone at least six innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're getting up two earned runs or less.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in three of those six outings, he's at least seven straightouts, including his last two.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's six innings two earned nine keys against the athletics on the 17th.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yesterday against the Iraqis, six shot out innings with eight straightouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I got that was like Scott, you know, at one time, was considered a kind of like a back end
[SPEAKER_01]: pitching prospect and then we're seeing kind of round in the form here so some were question with with Kavali here as with Scott are are you buying in and how high are you on Kavali here moving forward Toby?
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like I've been higher on Kavali than
[SPEAKER_00]: most other pitchers.
[SPEAKER_00]: His age especially a lot of people that I knew especially in like the the X community have been talking about how they want to see him break out for a long time and now we're finally getting that this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not a guy who's going to limit hard hit contact very much, but
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought right that he gets ground ball contact, it's, you know, you'll pretty much take it.
[SPEAKER_00]: He just can't get a favorable launch angle against him.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he also just misparles at a crazy amount.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's done that even more over the last 30 days.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it seems like it wasn't just a hot start frame.
[SPEAKER_00]: It seems like he's starting to, we're not starting to, he's just keeping going with what's been working for him.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what I love to see with a guy like Kate Gavali, you know, like Christian Scott, a six-pitch mix that plays pretty well.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm excited to see what he does the rest of the year because it seems like he knows the recipe for him to go out there and get out and get through long starts and I believe out of all the guys were talking about he actually has the most innings pitched in this like 30 day period so just reliable starter and you know that's one of my favorite things in the entire sport.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and that's definitely a dying breed as he was like this so much it's either they're just inconsistent or they get her I mean everything is so ramped up these days where just like that reliable starter is not as not as frequently found as it used to be so I'm right there with you, but.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, kick of all he is a guy that I was able to see back in, you know, back when he was a top 10 pitching prospects, probably would have been when he was in double a 20, 23.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to say similar in that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I remember this falling in love with his curve ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, think we it's still a very good pitch for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a pitch he has in the strikeouts on 48 of his strikeouts are on that knuckle curve.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a harder knuckle curve as well with a lot of downward
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, um drop on it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's I just love a big downer curve by always kind of have and especially one with this month of velocity.
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't actually see, you know, this amounts of drop and velocity on curve ball very often.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, so it's really a really a good pitch and you
[SPEAKER_01]: got the, you know, worked in a sweeper this year that he didn't have last year that's become his fourth most used offering with a 30% with freight on that as well and only a 113 batting up against.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's been a nice little addition to his arsenal because he was really, you know, really north south with his pitch mix and adding in that sweeper that kind of give that little bit of east west as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this gives that hitters another look that they got to be ready for.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, a little risky, sure, but I think Cavalry is going to be a pretty solid arm here moving forward with, I think a little more upside than a Christian Scott, and I think I am feeling a bit safer with Cavalry than I do with Scott, but yeah, Cavalry's definitely got that I'm buying into right now for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: next guy we got what three more here and actually we'll go to this guy here because then we'll finish off with two white socks.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to go to Justin Roblesky who I believe I talked about him earlier this year on this podcast or maybe I wrote about him I don't see him remember.
[SPEAKER_01]: where it was at this point, but I remember saying something to the regard of like obviously this is when he had a really low earray I mean he still does, but I think he had like a maybe even a sub two earray at that point, but that's the key rate was absolutely terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was like I think like a 13% key rate at that point time
[SPEAKER_01]: So I was like, all right, when, you know, when the ERA inevitably rises, he becomes just super uninteresting.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the ERA is still under three.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's 2.62 now through 106 and 2.3rds and things.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now he's starting to strike out some guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think you struck up the side in the his inning and the officer game, though I believe you did go at the home run to make ol' Vargas, but he had three strikeouts in his inning there and his last three outings, which were against the athletics, the Rockies, and the Phillies, 11, 9, and 7 strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... we'll go in and now he's got a quality start streak of five straight quality starts but the fact that he's starting to get you know more straight cuts here uh... it's really encouraging does before that he had just two outings with at least seven straightouts in his first fourteen outings up the season so
[SPEAKER_01]: This is really interesting here to go kind of from being super terrible at missing bats to all of a sudden pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you think, Eric?
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think, have you seen anything that, you know, could have caused this or maybe this is just kind of, you know, a flash in the pan in terms of the straightouts here.
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you think, Eric?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because I think robust is a pretty fun case.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I agree, and I felt more and more that way, especially after I saw him pitch in the All-Star game, and I truly haven't really watched much of Roblesky this year, but I feel like I thought of him more as like maybe like a pity Dodgers pick because you know, show hey, wasn't playing, and it's just been a town year for a lot of Dodgers guys, but you really impressed me in that All-Star game when he struck out the side before, obviously given up that homer to Vargas.
[SPEAKER_00]: elite control it is not walk anybody lately has been giving up less hard hit contact in the average EVs been a little bit better so you know maybe this is just a guy settled in really nicely as the seasons gone on there hasn't been something in particular that I've seen like you know either mechanically or pitch mix wise that I feel like oh you could point out and be like that's what has done it for him but
[SPEAKER_00]: Kind of just the things that he hasn't been so good at, the entire year, been better as of late.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think maybe that's some like, pre all star game momentum gone into post all star game momentum.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now we're gonna start to see him go even crazy in the second half.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's one that, I mean, I might feel a little bit better right now, but him maintaining some pretty solid ratios, I just don't think it'll be sub 3 the entire year, but you know, I feel more confident in that regard where he's not just going to completely become irrelevant again.
[SPEAKER_01]: But at the same time, that's kind of what I was looking at too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like the pitch mix hasn't really changed.
[SPEAKER_01]: You still pretty heavy for seem slider.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's about 70, 75% in that range of his usage each month.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the case to part of this month as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Most of his strikeouts are still on those two offerings.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I was like, well, maybe he's throwing the curve ball more or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: That hasn't really been in the case.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the width rates overall still aren't the greatest.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't know if I see this level of strike out, you know, over the last few outing for him sticking moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: So in that regard, I guess I'd still would lean towards, you know, more of a sell high than a buy in DINC leaks, but, you know, I think he's got a can maintains a pretty decent ratios here moving forward and.
[SPEAKER_01]: You've got to eat some innings as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's on pace for 170 or so innings this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: See the Dodgers let him go that high, because he only had, it was at 66 and 2-thirds last year, so I'm sure they'll probably do what they do and kind of limit him at some point the way that they're related to this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Especially if they get some of their other arms back at some point, which I think is still the goal, sort of speak, but yeah, Robleschi is a pretty damn good the last few starts, I was for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's close it out here with two white socks here, one starter, and we'll mix one reliever into the mix as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So why not?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll start with the starter and that's Sean Burke, you know, former University of Maryland, big six six, righty.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's really kind of like
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, having a pretty solid year overall, but especially over the last several outings here, where he hasn't allowed him more than two earned runs in an outing since the 13th of June, which was against the Dodgers.
[SPEAKER_01]: But over his last six outings, seven and a third, one earned eight k's against the yanks, six and a third, one earned six k's against the guardians, five and a third, two earned eight k's against Baltimore.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the last sort of June.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then his three starts in July, six innings, one earned 11 k's against Cleveland again.
[SPEAKER_01]: and then seven innings one earned nine k's against the athletics and then a few days ago coming out of the break six and two thirds zero earned five k's against Toronto.
[SPEAKER_01]: So really strong, you know, last five weeks or so here from Sean Burke, Toby, are you buying in?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, mainly just because he's improved a lot of things across the board added a cutter into the pitch mix and I'm not sure if that's the thing that's done the most success for him because he just doesn't throw it that much, but to add it in other pitch to keep batters on their toes a lot more and it's helped, it's helped him increase the amount of chase that he gets, it's helped him get more strikeouts, limit walks as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's just been nearly better here across the board and
[SPEAKER_00]: It could also be another fact that the white sucks are playing winning baseball too.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I have to it's a common that helps you do a little bit, but it seems like, you know, he made a lot of changes and it's helped improve him as a pitcher across the board and, you know, for that reason alone, I'm buying into him more.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, he's, he forgot a pretty solid pitch mix here.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you get the foreseamer on the 95 goes with a knuckle curve as it's most used secondary, you know, a little bit of a slower curve, you know, around 80 miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's got decent width for eight, only a two or five by the number to against.
[SPEAKER_01]: A mix in the slider, which is actually his best width rate offering 32% there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So no, like it'll eat with rate offerings, but he's got four that have a
[SPEAKER_01]: along with a low 90s cutter as well and they'll also throw a sinker in there too, so
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, doesn't get a ton of ground balls even as a guy that throws a sinker a little bit, but you know, he's missing bats more often than he ever has, you know, the whiff rate is pretty good this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, not a lot of leads to like 25%, but he's getting a lot more chase.
[SPEAKER_01]: I said the zone is the walker rate dropped as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I always love seeing a guy next is getting more chase, but less walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that shows that the stuff that he's really kind of looking at that stuff pretty good and, you know, knowing when to go outside the zone,
[SPEAKER_01]: and when to kind of go into the zone.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think this is a really smart picture here with Sean Burke.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're some pretty good stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, I don't think he's a elite guy, but I think there's a lot of legitimacy of what he's been doing lately and pretty solid arms.
[SPEAKER_01]: And another guy that could be at the top 40, top 50 arm moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm definitely kind of drinking the cool it here a little bit with Sean Burke.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you go to the bullpen here with the white socks for a really, really fun arm Grand Taylor and you got that was you know, one of the their top pitching prospects, but Couldn't really stick as a starter or so transitioned to the bullpen and I definitely think that was the right move You did a 263 ERA and a 1 0 7 whip this year with a 34.6% strikeup rate and only an 8% walk ring too So pretty good walk rate there
[SPEAKER_01]: Just before I ever leave her that's missing that many bats and you look on this event page to be it's a lot of red right now Now he's got that you know the strike got right obviously with rate chase rate, you know velocity everything Basically across the board from the most part is really really exciting and now you're seeing them set to really Kind of you into those higher leverage situations get some save opportunities for the white sox as well I mean it's kind of like the one area for the white extra hasn't gone great this year is like that back in the bullpen and
[SPEAKER_01]: They kind of gone through a few different names here, but Taylor now emerging as, you know, possibly one of the the best young relievers in all baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, do you think that's the kind of trajectory we're looking at here where, you know, we're if we fast forward a year, we're talking about Grant Taylor as being like one of the elite back-end bullpin arms in this game.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think that's safe to say even now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, even at 24 years old, guy at LSU, he's struck him people out in the 98th percentile at a near 35th percent clip.
[SPEAKER_00]: Fastball VLOs, nearly at 99 as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: And when you just look at his pitch mix, like there's nothing that's easy for hitters to even come close to just hitting.
[SPEAKER_00]: I believe every pitch besides the cutter, which he throwing four times and doesn't even really register on baseball so far, expected slugs below 300 on every single pitch.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the stuff's just not getting hit.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a wiffered above 30% on three different offerings.
[SPEAKER_00]: Whatever he's doing right now, it works.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm sure you know, as time goes on, teams and hiters are going to find more ways to be successful.
[SPEAKER_00]: But at this age, he's already been successful, too.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm hoping to bet that he's going to counter in his own way that's going to make him just as good down the line.
[SPEAKER_00]: So really exciting, Arm, probably one of the most frustrating pitchers to go up against if you're a big lead hitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: I absolutely, and you can't look at, especially the three offerings that he goes with the most, the Four Seamer at 98, the Curveball 84 and the Slider just a hair under 90, he goes, he loves going up in the zone with that Four Seamer, the Curveball has a lot of downward action on it, he'll go below the zone with that, and then that slider, which is more like a shorter
[SPEAKER_01]: once like a gyro can a cutterish slider but it's a really good offering as well so in really he does phenomenal and just changing the eye level of hitters and this stuff is really good so in fact he can do that with all you know with a decent walk rate on top of it I mean his X here raise even lower than his actual ERA right now so
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there's a lot to like here with Grant Taylor and yeah, I think you hit it around the head.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I might have been a little too bullish or bearish, I mean, on one year from now, I mean, he's probably one of the better relievers in baseball right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, especially now that he's getting more save-up opportunities for the white socks, I think that's the final piece of the puzzle for the fantasy side of it where it's like, all right, now he's getting some saves here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So now, maybe next year we're looking at him as a top five.
[SPEAKER_01]: fantasy, reliever, and train the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, really exciting stuff here from the Wisex in general, but then Grant Taylor, especially closing on games for them now, a really, really electric arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, that's gonna wrap us up 14 players in the books here.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of fun names.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see how many of these guys can keep this up over the rest of the season and, you know, solidify their spots, you know, rising up rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was a lot of fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hope everyone enjoyed it.
[SPEAKER_01]: We will be back with you again next week.
[SPEAKER_01]: But until then, everyone take care.