[SPEAKER_02]: This is Invest Talk, from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time.
[SPEAKER_02]: Here's your host, Justin Klein.
[SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to invest talk.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is our Monday, July 13th, 2026 edition.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we are now into the second full trading week of the second half of the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: It means that we're moving forward moving into deep into summer.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hope everyone's having a fun summer staying cool, hopefully, as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: This show is not about the weather.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's about whether or not you're prepared for your retirement, or at least your path towards your retirement, or whatever financial goals you might have and maybe buying a house and maybe paying for kids' college.
[SPEAKER_01]: It may be paying for kids' down payment on the home.
[SPEAKER_01]: Whatever that might be, it's about making smart decisions with your money consistently.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you do that by having sound principals to start with.
[SPEAKER_01]: and then not allowing emotions to get the best of you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Both in good times and bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: Mark, it's been up, especially your last year this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of times people look at this time and say, I need to take more risk and maybe that's true, but also maybe you just have bad timing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you're allowing emotions to get the best of you, just like when the market pulls back and you have C-1015% drop, a lot of people freak out and say, I'm taking too much risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's very important to keep a level head.
[SPEAKER_01]: And our job here is to help you with that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Justin Klein and I will throughout this hour give you actionable data, material, and perspective develop over 25 years of investment experience so that you can make smarter decisions with your money.
[SPEAKER_01]: I will also answer your financial investment questions and that will be the main crux of this hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: So don't hesitate to reach out, whether that's VR number, 888 NUH chart, maybe you're sending us a message on our website or on our YouTube channel.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you're leaving us review our iTunes.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you're just calling after hours and leaving your question on the US talk voice bank.
[SPEAKER_01]: Either way, no matter what we love hearing what you have to say.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, in just a bit, we'll talk about today's mark performance and run down the show topics, but as usual, we'll tackle this first-collar question now.
[SPEAKER_05]: Hi, I think through your show, this is Greta from Home Desert, and I have a question about micro and technology looking to buy, ticker, and you, micron, and it's curious about your thoughts on the sock and getting in on it.
[SPEAKER_05]: Thanks.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're looking at micron, the big winners over the past couple of years, so it's to earn
[SPEAKER_01]: $73 a share this year, after making only $8.29 since last year, actually losing money in 2023, lost $4, and changed there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then next year, it's just around $152.82.
[SPEAKER_01]: So based on forward-looking earnings, it looks cheap.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now here's what you have to understand about Micron, and all of these chip stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Historically, these are extremely cyclical businesses with huge boom and bust cycles.
[SPEAKER_01]: Boom, cycle, the chip industry, or the memory industry, that's what this is, memory stock.
[SPEAKER_01]: The memory producers, the biggest boom they've ever had.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the good mean is there's more upside.
[SPEAKER_01]: Could very well mean that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But history says that they tend to build out more capacity when there are times like these.
[SPEAKER_01]: Eventually, that capacity comes on across the industry, which means more supply, which means lower prices, which means lower margins, and then profits, and default.
[SPEAKER_01]: Tell this works.
[SPEAKER_01]: Remember, nobody cares who what your memory is in your phone in your laptop in the AI data center that's
[SPEAKER_01]: crunching the, you know, running the, the model when you query jet GBTE or cloud or any of the other ones.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a commodity and right now there's not enough supply.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is extremely risky.
[SPEAKER_01]: Once again, there can be a more upside, but I understand that when the tide turns, this will drop 70, 80, 90% from a tide.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the history of these names.
[SPEAKER_01]: Very well could go into a loss at some point.
[SPEAKER_01]: So isn't it one of those buying hold type of investments?
[SPEAKER_01]: It's one of those, okay, let's hold until maybe there's a shift in the tie.
[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't you'll know that really from the chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now so far the chart is pulled back a little bit from it, a little, a 1250 right now back down to 900 in chain and 37 or so at the close today.
[SPEAKER_01]: What I would say is you watch for the 100-day moving average break.
[SPEAKER_01]: To me, when that happens, that's when
[SPEAKER_01]: This is over, most likely.
[SPEAKER_01]: Meaning, you go through, you're going through a more protracted, long, long downtrend.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's probably going to take this sub, who knows, 200 bucks.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a momentum play.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're up for a momentum play, great jump on board.
[SPEAKER_01]: But make sure you have an out because there's huge downside when the tie turns, but once again, could be another year or two before that happens.
[SPEAKER_03]: And we had a great show in Friday.
[SPEAKER_03]: We looked into the story about travel stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: And what the offseason boom tells us about the consumer economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: All sorts of questions on TTM technologies.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you happen to miss it, go check it out.
[SPEAKER_01]: The best way to get every show is to follow and best talk wherever you get your podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we'll have a lot of ground to cover.
[SPEAKER_01]: Over the next 45 minutes or so, time permitting will get to all of it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And our main focus point is about
[SPEAKER_01]: that could save you costly mistakes for the backup of 2026.
[SPEAKER_01]: So as I said, we're just past the halfway mark in the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a good time to reassess a bunch of aspects of your financial life.
[SPEAKER_01]: From your savings rate, your asset allocation, to your liquidity or liquid reserves, your type of equity positioning, fixed income exposure, et cetera.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to dig into that in much, much more, including treasuries, the treasury market.
[SPEAKER_01]: Japan is starting to intervene in order to prevent the end from falling much further.
[SPEAKER_01]: But in order to do that, they're actually selling off assets, including treasuries.
[SPEAKER_01]: longer term treasury rates continue to go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're approaching the highs once again in the 10 year treasury rate for the past that see year year and half.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll dig into that story.
[SPEAKER_01]: Also, what's going on in Germany, especially in relation to China.
[SPEAKER_01]: China is now hauling
[SPEAKER_01]: and big news there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So whatever's on your mind, we want to hear from you.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to head into a break.
[SPEAKER_01]: Please remember you can call any time and leave your question on the investment stock price bank.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're listening via our live stream on bestalk.com, or possibly on AM1220 in the day or you can call right now at 8.99 charting.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hang on.
[SPEAKER_01]: This will be taking a live call coming up next.
[SPEAKER_01]: Jane from the Bay Area, you will be right after this break.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's official Total Lifetime Downloads for the Invest Talk podcast.
[SPEAKER_02]: Have now surpassed 63 million.
[SPEAKER_02]: So tell your friends when they have an answer to investment questions, call Invest Talk.
[SPEAKER_01]: 888-99 chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to talk to Jane in the Bay Area looking at EWY, which I believe this is South Korea, right?
[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you for taking my call Justin.
[SPEAKER_06]: I'm a long time listener.
[SPEAKER_06]: I'm interested in actually SK Hynes because symbol is FKHY or DWI which is I believe ETF, but I don't have much information.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is interesting because we just answered a call on Micron and then S.K.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hinex, these are two memory makers and two of the hottest names in the market and this is a lesson for everybody out there and I I've been doing this for a long time.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's, there's a very high correlation to the questions we get about particular names and usually the peak in these stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just how it is.
[SPEAKER_01]: People are the most interest and they chase the highest returns is what we try to avoid, help people avoid.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is chasing these particular,
[SPEAKER_01]: these names that have done really well recently, but, you know, there's a reversion to mean that naturally will occur in some industries are different than others, so all industries are different than others, but they have similar flavors, shall we say.
[SPEAKER_01]: And as I said with micro on these are very cyclical businesses, and it's not a coincidence that SK Hinex just went public here on U.S. Exchange is in order to raise capital.
[SPEAKER_01]: When companies are
[SPEAKER_01]: That is a sure sign that you want to avoid these names.
[SPEAKER_01]: They know their business.
[SPEAKER_01]: They know that this is the best time ever, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And the market has recognized that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so they're not going to go and raise capital and shell and sell more shares when
[SPEAKER_01]: If the talk is cheap they're going to do it.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's expensive.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you want to avoid it when they go public like this.
[SPEAKER_01]: And today is a good example.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ask a high necks in one public on Friday and it's actually down 10% on the day.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's immediately falling, which shows you that it's very overvalued.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you go by the South Korean ETF, you're getting, I think it's Eskahinex and
[SPEAKER_02]: What's the other one?
[SPEAKER_01]: The Samsung.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's the the two large companies within that particular ETF.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're that index.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you want to these are these are names that you want to avoid right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, yes, they're momentum names and they could go up in the near term of us, you know, it's hard to always pick that top, but understand the signs, you know, read the
[SPEAKER_01]: read the signs that are flashing in your face, which is these companies are raising capital.
[SPEAKER_01]: They would not be raising capital if it was a good opportunity to buy the shares.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good opportunity for them to sell the shares, which means it's the correlating for you, it's the bad opportunity for you to buy the shares, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, could there be a correction in the cycle and eventually it makes sense to pick them up sure, but now's not a good time.
[SPEAKER_06]: Nice, not a good talk.
[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you so much.
[SPEAKER_06]: No, I appreciate it.
[SPEAKER_06]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for the call.
[SPEAKER_01]: And just for all the other listeners out there, recognize these.
[SPEAKER_01]: It has something I do for 25 years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've seen.
[SPEAKER_01]: so many cycles.
[SPEAKER_01]: So many, there's always the flavor of the, I don't we say the month because usually it's a, it's a period.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a, you quarters or a year or whatever.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's a narrative behind it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Markets are, especially equity markets are very narrative driven.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the reason it's narrative driven is because those narratives drive share issuance.
[SPEAKER_01]: It drives and emanate activity.
[SPEAKER_01]: It drives bond issuance.
[SPEAKER_01]: These are all things that the big investment makes Wall Street makes money on That's why they try to create these narratives and put out these reports Sometimes it makes sense sometimes it doesn't but it's all
[SPEAKER_01]: to drive more profits for Wall Street, not necessarily for you, the investor.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it's 24-7 in Vestock.
[SPEAKER_01]: Boys make never closes, so you can leave your findings in a Vestock question anytime on 8-89, in chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I work continues after this break.
[SPEAKER_02]: The calls are free, the unbiased answers are free, so what are you waiting for?
[SPEAKER_02]: Call in Vestock, 888-99, chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go look at a very interesting market today with the market broadly in the red, NASDAQ down over one and a half percent, SMB down about 80 basis points in the Dow down about a quarter of a one per cent.
[SPEAKER_01]: Really this was driven by
[SPEAKER_01]: more downside in these memory producers.
[SPEAKER_01]: Really, you had the South Korean Cosby, which the college just asked about, that 9% overnight, as I said, we are, and I think we're in the inflection point.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, could we more upside-share, but I think the odds is now tilting that the peak in these AI hardware names is behind us.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's my sense.
[SPEAKER_01]: During the 25 years of seeing these cycles and usually the market moves well before,
[SPEAKER_01]: Like the average sailing sale price starts to turn, and there's already talk about that, okay?
[SPEAKER_01]: Which means once again, margins are likely to come down.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a name like Micron, who's so starting 150 dollars next year, if average selling prices are starting to come down, suddenly that's going to drop considerably that earnings execution for next year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's,
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a big factor here.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's one of the reasons why the NASDAQ was down so much.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hardware names were down so much.
[SPEAKER_01]: You had, my current was going down one and a quarter percent, but names like Marvel were down three.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of the, once again, the hardware names down.
[SPEAKER_01]: And what was up was actually software.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so to me, this is actually the trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: I find these software names are far more attractive right now than the hardware names.
[SPEAKER_01]: at least in the short to medium current.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, how it evolves and if it continues to encroach on what software is doing, you know, three to five years now that could be different.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you're talking about near term opportunity and risk versus reward, saying for the next 12 to 18 months, I definitely see software as much better opportunity.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now, and you're seeing that today.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's a lot of rotation happening in market markets.
[SPEAKER_01]: food names, chemicals and dust drills, churrents companies, those are the outperformers today, the underperformance ones again.
[SPEAKER_01]: Where those hardware companies says AI hardware names that had been winners and now they're starting to roll over.
[SPEAKER_01]: But honestly, we see the two year yield for and a quarter percent the highest since early 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: Starting to get some hawkish talk for some of the Fed governors,
[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's a lot of corporate bonds supply.
[SPEAKER_01]: Amazon, issuing $25 billion, and it's kind of an unexpected sale, $25 billion.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's also widening spreads across the kind of industry.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have CPI figures that come out on Tuesday, Mr. Maro.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll get a lot more data there, Kevin Worsh, Fed Chair.
[SPEAKER_01]: His first two days of semi-annual monetary policy testimony.
[SPEAKER_01]: So they'll be a lot more.
[SPEAKER_01]: They'll be some market moving comments.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure around the feature of a policy and just the Fed in general.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the good news is, credit card spending came in strong.
[SPEAKER_01]: 6.3% growth year of year in June.
[SPEAKER_01]: The strongest over four years.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is mainly due discretionary spending.
[SPEAKER_01]: So people continue to spend.
[SPEAKER_01]: As I've said before, this is more of a market that's in rotation, as opposed to,
[SPEAKER_01]: a big crash or anything like that, because there are sectors that are working.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then you have the backdrop of what's going on in the Middle East and the streets of Ramose that remains closed.
[SPEAKER_01]: Do not expect a resolution any time soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: I expect this to bounce back and forth between open and close and a negotiations and so on really through the election.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's pretty clear that present Trump can't's acquiesce and just go home because he can't he has to at least do the election make it look like things are fine things are things aren't not fine say fine but unresolved in the middle east.
[SPEAKER_01]: He goes home then it's a loss and he doesn't want to be viewed as that especially going into the midterms.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's pretty clear.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think in the medium term, oil prices are generally going to trend higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: What else did you say today?
[SPEAKER_01]: Dollars up 0.3% goal finished down 2.6 silver down 3.7 yields are up about 4 to 7 basis points with a curve flattening.
[SPEAKER_01]: WTI was up 9.4% the highest level since the straight to our moves were reopened quote unquote over the past couple weeks.
[SPEAKER_01]: continued rotation and a lot of volatility underneath the surface.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now this is the best thought going to work continues.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, we're going to break.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, we're going to go to a quick break.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can call me anytime.
[SPEAKER_01]: 24, 7, 365 as always.
[SPEAKER_01]: The same number is 8 and 8 and 9 chart.
[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk is ready 24-7 for your finance and investment questions.
[SPEAKER_03]: My five-year-old son and I listened to your podcast every night, so thank you very much for putting it on.
[SPEAKER_03]: Justin Klein is here and ready to tackle your questions.
[SPEAKER_09]: Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvestance a better stock?
[SPEAKER_06]: I'm wondering, what you thought about this route is it would be a good time to get in?
[SPEAKER_04]: I wanted to pick your brain about Apple.
[SPEAKER_04]: What did you think about their earnings call?
[SPEAKER_04]: So this is a good time to add to my position.
[SPEAKER_03]: Don't forget to call, in Best Talk, 888-99 chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: at KPP Financial.
[SPEAKER_01]: Accountability means more than advice.
[SPEAKER_01]: It means we invest alongside you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Through our parallel investing approach, when we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time.
[SPEAKER_01]: Same day, same price, same percentage.
[SPEAKER_01]: If your portfolio moves, ours does too.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is alignment, that is transparency.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the KPP difference.
[SPEAKER_01]: Visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are a few things that make KPP financial special.
[SPEAKER_02]: One of them is parallel investing.
[SPEAKER_02]: This means they invest right alongside their clients.
[SPEAKER_02]: Here's how it works.
[SPEAKER_02]: When KPP financial makes a trade for their clients, just in client makes the same trade for himself and KPP.
[SPEAKER_02]: On the same day, at the same price, and same percentage.
[SPEAKER_02]: No front running, no special treatment.
[SPEAKER_02]: Learn more about parallel investing at investtalk.com.
[SPEAKER_01]: Our main focus point today is about some simple portfolio checks that could save you from costly mistakes.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now that we are pretty much halfway through the year, a little more now.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good opportunity to check up on your portfolio.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know when the times are good, it's easy to tune everything out
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, everything's positive.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're, you're fine, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's one of the biggest mistakes people make is they only pay attention when things are looking bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the reality is they've lost the opportunity to rebalance their portfolio when it's an opportunity time to do so.
[SPEAKER_01]: Usually when the market's dropping
[SPEAKER_01]: That's usually not the best time to be making major changes.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of it's irrational, emotional, and so it's better when it's up to use these trigger points, like halfway through the year, to say, okay, let's step back and say, what are my goals?
[SPEAKER_01]: Am I achieving them?
[SPEAKER_01]: So number one is check on your current savings rate,
[SPEAKER_01]: And whether you're in track for your goals.
[SPEAKER_01]: This goes back to something we do for our clients.
[SPEAKER_01]: We use something called the Ryan Planning.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of good planning tools out there.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can go and create one, you know, find one yourself.
[SPEAKER_01]: However, you do it, you need to have a plan, not just to, and it needs to encompass your entire financial life, not just your investments.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what about your real estate that you might own?
[SPEAKER_01]: Give a pension.
[SPEAKER_01]: What are the assets?
[SPEAKER_01]: What debt do you have from mortgages to others?
[SPEAKER_01]: How is your, how are your best in some vested?
[SPEAKER_01]: Was your expected earnings over an extended period of time?
[SPEAKER_01]: But a social security planning, Roth conversion planning.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are things that we do for clients, and, you know, that's just a start of it, but there's more.
[SPEAKER_01]: But those are the pieces of an actual plan that can tell you most likely we're at the end of five years, 10 years, 20 years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Which are tax rate, not just today,
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you allocating your savings correctly in your 401k, for example, to get your match?
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are the things that you need to know, you have that plan, and you need to be saving consistently.
[SPEAKER_01]: A baseline is about 15% of your savings, or if you're every income.
[SPEAKER_01]: Higher income folks probably even higher because Social Security is not going to be as much for you as a percentage of your spending was like,
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you're already retired, then it's the withdrawal rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, how much did you spend last year or maybe in the first half of this year?
[SPEAKER_01]: And if that's sustained, inflation adjusted, or you can have enough money, this is part of the planning process.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I said, this is what you pay an advisor to do.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we do, along with the investment side, but I digress.
[SPEAKER_01]: Number two, assess your asset allocation.
[SPEAKER_01]: Stocks are up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ones are kind of flat to down, depending on which bonds you're in.
[SPEAKER_01]: What are your allocation targets?
[SPEAKER_01]: How are they moving over time?
[SPEAKER_01]: Usually if stocks are bonds are flat to down, stocks are up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, you're probably overweight equities.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you need to start developing a plan to get those back into targets.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then also, what is your exposure to US stocks versus domestic error
[SPEAKER_01]: The global market in the season roughly 60% U.S. 40% non-U.S. How close are you to that?
[SPEAKER_01]: Forensops are starting to outperform, especially if the dollar goes into a structural decline, which starting to become increasingly likely based on our deficit.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then looking at your bond portfolio,
[SPEAKER_01]: Then start to make a plan with your taxes in mind, if there's money in taxable accounts, how to shift your asset allocation.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you want to do that with tax shelter to counts, like IRAs, 401ks first, and then move on to taxable accounts.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then number three is liquid reserves.
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you have enough standard guide is three to six months of living expenses?
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you are a high income earner or you're like a gig worker or you are heavy your line on say on on commissions because you have a sales job or something like that, your target for reserves should be higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: For retired people, at least six months, upwards of two years of cash.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say one to two years is my range.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is a good time if you're a retiree, sell a little bit of your equities.
[SPEAKER_01]: To top off your look, reserve to get to that cash reserve target.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then to make sure it's earning a reasonable yield.
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably a high yield savings account, FDAC and shared, maybe some CDs, et cetera, that's a good way to invest your cash.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then within your equity positions, the four is,
[SPEAKER_01]: What has done well, for example, over the past three months, Q2 detected very well, and large companies had done very well, but closing the quarter, you had a lot of max, seven names, not do very well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you own some of those names, it was the start of the reevaluation, due to the change in their business model.
[SPEAKER_01]: Make sure you rebound, so you make sure you're not too overweight those particular names, or just your sector positioning in general.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you need to have an asset allocation target for how much of equities, how much new of equities, how much in foreign equities, how much in bonds, how much in liquid assets like money markets or high yield savings, maybe how much in commodities.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then within those, how much risk should you be taking?
[SPEAKER_01]: What's your sector allocation for equities, for example?
[SPEAKER_01]: And if a fixed income is number five is understand your exposure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you taking a lot of credit risk?
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you taking a lot of duration risk?
[SPEAKER_01]: In this environment, we prefer taking credit risk over duration risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you don't long-term bonds.
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't own CLT, you don't own 10, 20, 30-year bonds of any type.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're seeing that now with longer rates going up.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then individual holdings.
[SPEAKER_01]: So for individual stocks, you need to look at valuation,
[SPEAKER_01]: Changes in their business model, maybe their balance sheet, cash flows, earnings trends that they're going up, are they going down?
[SPEAKER_01]: Individual funds, the manager change, strategy change, or the underperformance compared to the category that it's in.
[SPEAKER_01]: Take a look at that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But obviously, if you're reducing anything in taxable accounts, we're in some projections of how how might impact your tax bill.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then another factor, it how quickly you do this is your age.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you're younger, you know, doing this slowly opportunistically, probably is okay, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Getting things in a balance, especially if you're only slightly out of your targets.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you're closer to retirement or in retirement and you're profilious position too aggressively because maybe equities rallied, you want to do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: You want to make that rebalance faster because you can't make a mistake.
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't want to wait for the tie to turn and have sustained weakness in the stock market to make those changes.
[SPEAKER_01]: You want to do that now while the market's been up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So those are some ways to think about how to change your portfolio as we head into the back after the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those keep things going and pivot to the best stock voice being from 80 to 90 nine chart.
[SPEAKER_07]: This is Romero from the Bay Area.
[SPEAKER_07]: I'm currently looking into the Celsius holdings.
[SPEAKER_07]: That's an interesting energy company, and I'm thinking about investing in them, but I wanted to see what you think of this company long term.
[SPEAKER_07]: If you do think it's a good company to invest in what's a good price point, looking forward to your answer.
[SPEAKER_07]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Looking at Celsius, this is a name that's been trying to use Serp Monster Energy as the
[SPEAKER_01]: energy drink space and it's and it's ups and downs, but earnings continue to go up and expected to be at all-time high, earnings of this year, but dollar 61 after all-time high, earnings last year, but dollar 34 and then $2 expected earnings next year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So pretty solid growth, $29 stock, so you're talking about mid teens forward looking multiple.
[SPEAKER_01]: I really like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I also, the balance sheet is pretty strong about $2 billion in net debt in the $7.6 billion mark cap.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: It has $294 million in free cash flow training 12 months, which is down from its high, which is over 500 million.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's the worry is that while it's still in the longer term uptrend, it's definitely re-chrenched a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so is the stock.
[SPEAKER_01]: Growth strength is 9.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's near 52 week low.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think the valuation is attractive here if it can reach that $2 earnings.
[SPEAKER_01]: The only issue is that expectations continue to come down for those earnings next year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So until I see better momentum from the stock, I'm gonna keep it on the sidelines.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm watching it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's interesting.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's probably a good risk of a reward of the long term, but over the short to medium term, till it can break above the 100-day moving average, which right now is up around $35 per share, right now it's straight at $29.
[SPEAKER_01]: Until it can break above that and show some positive momentum, I'm not in their earnings, momentum is negative.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you combine those two things you're saying.
[SPEAKER_01]: there's not a whole lot of confidence this is going to turn around in the short term.
[SPEAKER_01]: So until then, I'm going to watch it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm also not seeing capitulation meeting what I would like to see is maybe earnings.
[SPEAKER_01]: It decline considerably high volume but not really go down that much and that would mark upon them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm looking for more of a sign there.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: This selling is over.
[SPEAKER_01]: The babies have been thrown out the bath water.
[SPEAKER_01]: All the weekends are gone and now I'm ready to pick it up.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm still not seeing that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's on the sidelines.
[SPEAKER_01]: I continue to watch it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think it was probably a good opportunity to buy in the next six to 12 months.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go answer another voicemail question now.
[SPEAKER_08]: Now it's wondering for moving averages, which time frames you guys like to use whether it's the 50-day, 100, or the 200.
[SPEAKER_08]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I like to use all of them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have the 20-day, I have the 50-day, the 100-day, and the 200-day.
[SPEAKER_01]: Every stock is different though.
[SPEAKER_01]: When a stock is in an uptrend, it usually finds support at a particular living average.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's usually the 50 or the 100, the 200 very slow.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's more of a long-term average.
[SPEAKER_01]: What I also like to see too is that long-term average, a 200-day moving average, pointed higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: Pointed higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: That shows you that this stock is in an uptrend.
[SPEAKER_01]: I also like to see a gap between the 50 and the 100-day, which means that there's consistent upward momentum for the stock.
[SPEAKER_01]: And when that starts to break, meaning like the hundred finds out, I'm just looking at, so I'll say, it's actually a very good example of this.
[SPEAKER_01]: Through 2025, it bought around 21, eventually peaked out in the fall of 25 at 66 in change.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it was in a consistent uptrend.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was always above the hundred-day moving average.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then, you had earnings, or some of that I'm assuming earnings, this is an early November of last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it fell from about $60 per share to run $45.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it sliced right through the 100-day moving average, right to the 200-day moving average.
[SPEAKER_01]: And almost immediately, that 100-day started flattening out.
[SPEAKER_01]: They recovered the 100-day for a short period of time in January of this year, but only for a couple of weeks, and then rolled that over.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the 100-day was still pointed down.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the 200-day eventually pointed down, starting in April.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is in a downtrend.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that flattening out of the 100-day showed you that that momentum is
[SPEAKER_01]: was gone after that earnings.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the direction of the moving average, more often than not, can tell you a lot about the momentum in the stock.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I use all of them.
[SPEAKER_01]: there's a lot of investors that are hedge funds that don't want to own a stock that is below the 50-day moving average, so that oftentimes can trigger a sale.
[SPEAKER_01]: But once again, it just depends on the stock and health volatile it is.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so when stock is in a move, whether it's up or down, you'll usually see it find that support or resistance, resistance, if it's in a downtrend, add a particular moving average.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's why I like to use all of them, I used to like to understand, where that tends to, where the market tends to come in and sell or come in to buy and then what the direction of those moving average as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Doesn't best talk.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Justin Klein.
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[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, Justin, thanks for taking my call.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I would like to get you a view on gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw a big drop today.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I wanted to check in to see if this was the time to grab some.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it was down again today.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been under pressure from higher interest rates, higher dollar in general, lower lower yen, even though you're starting to, you have seen a little bit of strength of the yen recently, but today the end was down once again.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I mean, I think over the medium term, I'm still bullish on coal near term, is obviously some headwinds.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think we're getting closer to the end of this correction, but certainly could have more room to run.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to always pick that bottom.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sediment, obviously, in January, was extreme to the upside and now it's closer to extreme on the downside.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.
[SPEAKER_01]: OK.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks.
[SPEAKER_01]: is trying to intervene in the market for the end.
[SPEAKER_01]: They sold Tokyo's sold about $75 billion in foreign securities at the end of May.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's to support their currency.
[SPEAKER_01]: It hasn't really worked.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the end continues to drop.
[SPEAKER_01]: are ready to sell off treasuries to fund the support of their currency.
[SPEAKER_01]: The drop in foreign held securities was the largest on record, actually for the month of May.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's a shock that you're seeing rates go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: But at 70% of that are treasuries.
[SPEAKER_01]: It shows you when they go and support, try to support the end.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're most likely selling treasuries.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, one might say that's about saying, and it could be, but it depends on which treasuries they're selling.
[SPEAKER_01]: They sold short-dated treasuries, probably wouldn't matter too much, to be honest, but it's when they sell the longer-dated treasuries that could disrupt the supply demand of that market.
[SPEAKER_01]: that you have in the scene rates go up, how much of that is, potential more hawkers fed, how much of that is Japan selling treasuries, how much of that is just treasuring issuance in general because of our deficit.
[SPEAKER_01]: Look at there are a lot of factors that are driving this, how much is inflation?
[SPEAKER_01]: Just continuing to kind of edge higher with what's going on in the middle east.
[SPEAKER_01]: So combined, that's why you're seeing rates continue to go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Or what's the biggest you're doing about it?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, they're actually raising their interest rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: And they're likely to do so again in the coming months.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because they're trying to support their currency.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, ironically, a more hawkish fed isn't going to help that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it'll be very interesting to see what Scott Bessant says tomorrow, for example, does he start to build an expectation of rate hikes by your end?
[SPEAKER_01]: Or does he get more dovish?
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe not say transitory, but talk about inflation is more transitory, or that their inflation target is now closer to three versus two.
[SPEAKER_01]: These are shifts that are likely in some way, shape or form, meaning the standard to present target and focusing on rate policy is probably an unlikely.
[SPEAKER_01]: path forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's clear that the current, sorry, that best of it kept Kevin worse than you fed you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Excuse me.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is likely to change the way that the Fed works.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that will have a broad implications for currency markets abroad as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I continue to watch what's going on in Japan and could have a very profound impact on the markets here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Justin Klein.
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