[SPEAKER_00]: Good morning friends and enemies.
[SPEAKER_00]: In today's video, we're going to go over five players whose Vegas lines are higher.
[SPEAKER_00]: They are more juicy than your idiot league mates are giving them credit for.
[SPEAKER_00]: And by that, I mean, we're going to look at their ADP.
[SPEAKER_00]: Or we're going to look at why they should be higher based on what Vegas lines currently have them ongoing into the 26th fantasy season.
[SPEAKER_00]: Listen,
[SPEAKER_00]: I understand, biggest lines are not a perfect science here.
[SPEAKER_00]: They are one tool in the tool bag.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is an imperfection.
[SPEAKER_00]: They are a line set to have wagers on both sides of the lines to get it even.
[SPEAKER_00]: The lines are very low liquidity.
[SPEAKER_00]: The bookmakers don't necessarily put a ton of time into making these very, very sharp, but I do think it's a nice indicator of where players are going relative to other players.
[SPEAKER_00]: the same position.
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think you could almost use them as like bumpers of how you can be looking at players.
[SPEAKER_00]: So don't take these as gospel.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're just gonna, we're just gonna converse it.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're gonna talk through them and see what I am seeing through these eyes.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's jump in here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the first player on this list that Vegas has much higher and I have much higher than your idiot league mates is Javote Williams, all right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Running back for the Dallas Cowboys.
[SPEAKER_00]: Currently, ADP of RB17, however, Vegas has them four figures deep in his rushing line at 1000 yards, plus nine and a half rushing touchdowns.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is feeling like one of the most over-thought players in fantasy football this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I got it's getting drafted at like the three four turn.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes in the fourth round of full PPR leagues, which
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm fine.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a, a fool's errand to try to predict a running backs like efficiency numbers on targets and receptions on a year to year basis.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a small sample size.
[SPEAKER_00]: Very little things can kind of dictate whether you're half a yard up or half a yard down from the previous year scheme matters a lot and those kind of things.
[SPEAKER_00]: So when I look at Jumonti Williams.
[SPEAKER_00]: I see very much like Josh Jacobs a few years ago.
[SPEAKER_00]: You have a younger dude who's kind of a bruising back, but the clear goal line back, the clear early down back, attached to a very high scoring offense with a very good offensive line.
[SPEAKER_00]: Not, you know, the elite lines of the Zekelelli at years, but the Dallas Cowboys line is at worst a top 15 line, probably closer to that top 10 to 12 line, especially if some of their offensive line and like really step up this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So Javante is gonna be a guy who is just sitting there within the 10-year line within the five-hour line
[SPEAKER_00]: very high scoring.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the thing that should make us and why Vegas is probably so excited about him is the fact that they added nothing to this backfield depth.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like they didn't take a player in the second or third or fourth or in those earlier like juicy rounds to actually supplement the backfield in terms of depth.
[SPEAKER_00]: They saw what Javato Williams did last year, gave him 250 carries, average nearly five yards per carry, and said, we're just going to do that again.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like sure, Jdoblu
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he's ready to play in the NFL this year, but I don't think that's a given.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like maybe he takes some of those third down and long steps, those two and four minute drill snaps.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's also not really why you're drafting a dude like Jemonti Williams.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not a reason why you'd be drafting a dude like Josh Jacobs.
[SPEAKER_00]: They are like the perfect RB2 to supplement your backfield because the volume is gonna be so high.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he's getting a little bit of recency bias because he slowed down a little bit by the end of the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, and people are kind of remembering that, but the beginning of the year was incredible.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you flip those two, I think we'd be a lot higher on Zavati Williams, but overall, like the reason that I like Zavati so much is just attachment to that offense, rushing touchdowns are a product of a good offense, and the lack of depth added to this backfield makes him one of the better picks in fantasy football this year in my opinion, based on where he's going right now in drafts.
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we've got Devante Adams wide receiver for the Los Angeles Rams right now is 80p is wide receiver 25.
[SPEAKER_00]: Vegas has his receiving touchdown line at 9 and a half receiving touchdowns.
[SPEAKER_00]: His odds to lead the league are tied with the top players in the league so that 9 and a half total.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's him, Jamar Chase, and I'm on Ross St. Brown.
[SPEAKER_00]: All three of them are seven to one to lead the league in touchdowns.
[SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't take a genius or a rocket scientist to understand like the Monta Adams, incredible weapon inside the 10 yard line.
[SPEAKER_00]: We saw them expose defenses last year doing this over and over and over and over and over and over again.
[SPEAKER_00]: Do I think it's a good bet?
[SPEAKER_00]: No, like it's not something that I would necessarily take, but they're clearly still leaning into this mold here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And as your design is not very, very high, especially not relative to Puka.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it doesn't lend itself to saying, like, oh, Devante, it could be like the one this year in Los Angeles, where there was a subgroup of people that were in
[SPEAKER_00]: in that camp last year, we're like, oh, Adam's could be the one.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's gonna hurt Puka.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was not one of those guys, like I think Puka's, you know, by far and away the clear one there, but I do think Devante Adams similar to what I just said with Javante, they added nothing to that receiver room.
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't have a legit wider receiver through behind Devante and Puka and Akua.
[SPEAKER_00]: And last year when Devante was running routes, he was getting targeted at an insane basis.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was getting targeted at the seventh highest rate in the NFL last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So target per hour on rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was top seven.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was him and Pugor both in the top seven.
[SPEAKER_00]: So when them two are on the field together, it's just them two getting targets.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, yes, the Rams and specialized areas of the field utilize two tight ends at three tight ends and running back nump offs quite often.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are more special plays.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, when they're on the field and running routes, which is really only gonna be Devante and Pugin' to Kooa together,
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to Vante over and over and over and over again.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm a fan of drafting one of these like better and wider severs in the middle rounds, whether it's the Vante Adams or Mike Evans or Terry a little later.
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I mean, I am high on the Vante Adams.
[SPEAKER_00]: People think you might have fell off.
[SPEAKER_00]: They look at the hamstring injury from last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: They look at the age.
[SPEAKER_00]: I get it.
[SPEAKER_00]: But all else equal, you get a very, very good receiver in a very, very high scoring offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's projected to score a ton of touchdowns this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Stafford McVay, like, come on now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Player number three on this list and just want to say like before we get into Player number three all of these numbers like Vegas lines and everything they are available in our membership right now within our rankings like everything that we talk about throughout the summer strike the schedule Vegas lines rankings and everything.
[SPEAKER_00]: available on bdge.co inside the fantasy membership and the easiest and cheapest way to get it is if you are a new user on mgm you can go to posit $10 when you sign up use code bdge make sure you do that you got to be a new user use code bdge $10 place any slip as soon as you do so they're going to in app message you with a code to use on our website to get the membership absolutely free for the next three months.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you've got the summer, the draft guide plus the first month of the
[SPEAKER_00]: season itself, all right.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we've got a bunch of cool new tools coming your way and one other quick thing I want to throw in on the website when you're signed in as a fantasy member.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you go to the fantasy football drop down, there's a future video's idea and I basically created like a little Reddit style forum where you can submit video ideas that you want to see me make throughout the rest of the summer and you can upvote and downvote the ideas that you find the best or most helpful, which is great because I'd love to get more feedback on like what videos you guys want to see me to continue to make there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, player number three is, and if he was like every time I make this video, he is on this list and and kind of doesn't disappoint any given year That is Jergaff the quarterback for the Detroit Lions of course quarterbacks 16 in ADP his passing yardage line
[SPEAKER_00]: is number one in the NFL.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's above deck press got.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's above Matthew's staffer.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's above Joe Burrow.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like do I agree?
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably not, but I'm not the one doing this so they are.
[SPEAKER_00]: And his passing touchdown line is 29 and a half, which is tied for third in the NFL, behind only Burrow and Stafford.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, in terms of fantasy, obviously he is a zero on the ground, but the floor of him is just so high.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a great quarterback to in super flex leagues, and that's kind of how he's being drafted right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think him being a top-to-list for passing yards as his projection is kind of startling.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's obviously not crazy given the consistency that we've seen from this offense, especially in the passing side of things.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at the last four years with the lines.
[SPEAKER_00]: got 4,546, 4,644, 4,4500, around 30 touchdowns, if not more on any given year, he's arguably been one of the highest floor and almost ceiling quarterbacks just from my passing statistical perspective over the last four years.
[SPEAKER_00]: Honestly, if these were Joe Burrow's numbers or someone else's numbers, we'd probably be losing our mind a year and a year out and they'd be drafted as a top five to top three quarterback in fantasy, it feels like.
[SPEAKER_00]: So once again, we're looking at a phenomenal quarterback to in fantasy getting picked that quarterback 16.
[SPEAKER_00]: I get it.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's boring.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's slow.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a dud on the ground, but he's going to get it done through the air as he always does because he has I'm on Ross St. Brown and he has James and Williams and he has Samuel Porter coming back and he has Jimmy or Gibbs coming out of the back field like come on now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Number four on this list is DJ Moore, the wider receiver in Buffalo, newly added obviously to be the go-to guy for Josh Allen.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think a lot of people are excited about him and his projection per Vegas is 825.5 receiving Yard is lying six and a half touchdowns.
[SPEAKER_00]: Which is good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, when you look at the players around him, he's tie with Marff, he's right below lad.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's above guys like Luther Bird and Mike Evans, Carnell T. Jordan Tyson, who I think have gotten significantly more hype so far this off season than he is.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is a little bit of a product of people just being bored with floor type of players like you look at DJ Moore and he's kind of older.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's never really had like a, I guess he did with Justin Fields back in 2023.
[SPEAKER_00]: He did have like a bit of a boomer ceiling season with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't think anyone really thinks of DJ Moore as a high ceiling player and then you look at last year was a disaster in Chicago and it's like, all right, if Ben Johnson can't make you into like a big time player, but he was also inherited by Ben Johnson, not, you know, grabbed by Ben Johnson, like a Luther Burden or Colson lovelin.
[SPEAKER_00]: He went at the
[SPEAKER_00]: of his way to draft those guys and bring him into the mix and be the often to play makers there.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a tweener for me, like when I look at the names, I'm kind of similar to the fantasy community when I, I'm like, I think I've just prefer all of those guys over DJ more.
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, I think it's good to use them as bumpers where it's like, all right, if this guy is going to go for rounds ahead of DJ more, maybe there's a little bit of, given take, maybe there's a little bit of compensation we can use here where it's like, maybe I do go with another guy and then take DJ more three or four rounds later in fantasy drifts.
[SPEAKER_00]: because he is attached to Josh Allen and sure it does seem like there's a lot of like the fuckery going on in the receiver room there, whether it's like incated or Khalil Shakir, maybe count, whatever, and DJ Moore's like not an exciting guy, but maybe there is a little bit more of a ceiling there.
[SPEAKER_00]: What if DJ Moore does get 125, 130 targets from Josh Allen and Josh Allen's arm, like we might be in for a surprise year here, and I think Vegas is kind of saying, could be a possibility.
[SPEAKER_00]: And last but not least, we have number five on this list, Tyler, Chuck, the second year quarterback for the New Orleans Saints, Chuck's passing artage line, 3600 tied with Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, head of CJ Strahd, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, and Bo Nix.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, this is not like a Jared Goff where it's like, okay, his passing artage line is pretty strong.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's not a zero on the ground whatsoever.
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year in his starts, he averaged four and a half carries per game and 18 and a half rushing yards per game to throw on top of that.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's being drafted currently as the quarterback 19.
[SPEAKER_00]: So when you look at a guy like Jared Gough, you know, okay, he's a very high floor, solid, super flex option.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would almost look at Tyler Schuck as a guy who's like, all right, I think I'm shooting for a more
[SPEAKER_00]: high upside play here like maybe risky if you're not sold in Tyler shook as a product as a quarterback, which I don't really have a problem with, but I think a lot of these numbers, and this is something that I've talked about at Nauzeem this all season, it's not really a Tyler shook number.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is way more a killing more offense number, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: The plays per game, the pace of play.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's those things being factored into their projections rather than it is, oh, Tyler shook.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's going to be a more statistical higher upside player than a guy like
[SPEAKER_00]: field or those types of guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a product of environment.
[SPEAKER_00]: They have good weapons there, all around the offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: They have kellen more running a shitload of plays for game and a shitload of passes per game.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're in the dome, you're on turf.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to have a very good schedule in the NFC south.
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the best schedules in the NFL, the same's have this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And crazy.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was looking at some stats yesterday from weeks eight through 18, so that was when Tyler Chuck was the full time starter there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Tyler Chuck led the NFL in fourth quarter passing yards.
[SPEAKER_00]: with 931 passing yards just in the fourth quarter.
[SPEAKER_00]: He had like 2300 yards on the season.
[SPEAKER_00]: 931 of them came in the fourth quarter, which was over 39% of his total passing yards.
[SPEAKER_00]: That is like so far above and beyond the other quarterbacks.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like Jared Goff is within 70, but Jared Goff also threw for 4,500 yards.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're Tyler Schuck threw for 2300.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the percentage of those yards in the fourth quarter was so fucking high.
[SPEAKER_00]: which I look at it a couple ways.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm like, okay, the Saints were bad last year and they had to play catch up, but it also tells me that Kellon Moore wants to throw the ball in crunch time, in garbage time, they're going for it.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're gonna be throwing the ball a lot.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that was what a lot of last year was.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just thought it was an interesting stat.
[SPEAKER_00]: You guys can dissect it and look at it however you want.
[SPEAKER_00]: To me, that stat is less of like a bad team stat and probably more of a bad defense stat because you look at, you know, the Saints, the Lions, Chicago, Arizona, Dallas.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like there's a lot of good quarterbacks that were on good overall teams last year, but obviously in the fourth quarter, if your defense is letting up a lot of points, you gotta continue to put, you know, the pedal to the metal here.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's interesting that Tyler shook his passing yards are around the other like high volume quarterbacks in terms of passing.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he also brings this this ground game that I think can have some real upside like he could in an upper percentile outcome this year run for five to seven touchdowns along with like a strong passing season and all of a sudden you have a top ten to top eight fantasy quarterback this year so those are the five players that I found interesting looking at the lines and I think it might be worth taking a second look at them in your rankings in your feelings however you know you're looking at those players from an outlook perspective into 20 20
[SPEAKER_00]: Six, if you want to see exactly how I'm looking at these players and my rankings, again, they're available on bdge.co as a fantasy member, cheapest way to get them, head to mgm if you're a new user, use code bdge, when you sign up, deposit 10, play any slip on there, as soon as you do, they'll hit you with an in-app code to use on our website for three, three months.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, I'm out of here, I love y'all, and I'll see you in a couple of days, smooches.