[SPEAKER_00]: Good morning friends and enemies in today's video we will be doing the reverse of last week's video which now that I've wrapped up my initial rankings for 2026 fans to football.
[SPEAKER_00]: We looked at guys that I'm a lot higher on the consensus we looked at the market ADP and guys that I just have ranked a lot higher than where they're going in drafts.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now we will be doing the flip it and reverse it of guys that are much lower on than where they're currently going in drafts to hand full of guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of running backs on this list so without further don't let us get to the first player.
[SPEAKER_00]: And this one hurts a little bit because if you follow me at all last year, if you followed my videos throughout the summer, you very, very likely ended up with a lot of Devon HN on your team.
[SPEAKER_00]: This year, we will likely end up with very, very little Devon HN because he's the first player up on this list right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going off the board as the RB7.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's like a first round pick in fantasy graphs and that kind of blew my mind when I first saw the ADP because it feels
[SPEAKER_00]: like a year late from where you wanted to get him last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was, you know, going in the end of the second round early third in a fellow like he could return a first round investment for you this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like the reverse where if you end up investing a first round pick on him, he probably feels like he's going to give you back mid late second early third round value based almost entirely on the situation that Miami finds themselves in right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's so good, and I think he's completely underrated as an inside the tackle's runner.
[SPEAKER_00]: However, when it comes to guys his size, when it comes to like very unique players in the NFL, there are like a very particular few set of coaches that know how to get out the goodness of those unique players, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: You have Kyle Shanahan with Debo Samuel.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think Debo Samuel would have had the career he had had it not been for playing Kyle Shanahan system and him being able to utilize him the correct way.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'm looking at it the same way with Devon HN in a Mike McDaniel offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: When I look at their all-season moves, you know, people say like this is addition by subtraction, I think this is like subtraction by addition when it comes to Miami.
[SPEAKER_00]: They get rid of Mike McDaniel.
[SPEAKER_00]: Their new head coach, Jeff Hathley was the Green Bay Defense Coordinator, so I got no problem with it.
[SPEAKER_00]: But they bring in Bobby Slowick to be their offensive coordinator, hate that if we remember his time in Houston, like, did not like the run game there, just shoving guys up the middle
[SPEAKER_00]: their receiver room is just they got a nothing burger going on there no more tiredy kill no more dealing water they've a bunch of young like later round rookies that they're going to end up relying on here they bring in milk willus so will be a very run heavy offense that will have like so little success their win total is set at four and a half they made some improvements on the offensive line and some investments obviously their first round pick but they're still slated to be a bottom five offensive line heading into the season
[SPEAKER_00]: And I just don't want to attach myself to this type of offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't want to look up on Sundays and be like, fuck, Miami doesn't have the ball again.
[SPEAKER_00]: Miami doesn't have the ball again.
[SPEAKER_00]: When they do, how long is it for?
[SPEAKER_00]: Do they use a channel on the goal line?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, that's one of my biggest issues here is like, when a channel is in that situation where they could get easy touch sounds, which is going to be a few and far between in this Miami offense, which again, four and a half wins, do they sub-alli Gordon in there?
[SPEAKER_00]: I
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see a year where Devon HN finishes with like five or six touchdowns.
[SPEAKER_00]: Is he still going to catch like 50, 60 passes probably, but I also think that's another part of this equation here where Malik Willis is a mobile quarterback is going to check down way less times than a two attack of a low would, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like two was a check down and dump off artists the last couple of years.
[SPEAKER_00]: That was Mike McDaniel's offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're like ran the passing game through.
[SPEAKER_00]: A-chan, and the game in the extension, I'm sure you're still going to be a big part of this offense, but I think we're going to see his touchdown numbers plummet.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we're going to see the number of overall targets because Malik Willis will take off and run a lot of those times.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't think there is anywhere near the upside that he had last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now you're paying the upside price for what feels like a year late on A-chan.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, love the player still could not be more off this first round of ADP though.
[SPEAKER_00]: Number two, we are sticking within the AFC East here, and, you know, I had an incredibly scorching hot thesis last summer.
[SPEAKER_00]: Every video I feel like I talked about it, or I was just like, I'm not touching any New York Jets player.
[SPEAKER_00]: People are like just in fields as a top six quarterback in fantasy.
[SPEAKER_00]: I felt like that was a business.
[SPEAKER_00]: People loved Breeze Hall.
[SPEAKER_00]: People loved Garrett Wilson.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was like, listen, I'm, I'm just, do whatever you want.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just not touching
[SPEAKER_00]: So often this is when I didn't have to overthink that Aaron Glenn coming in.
[SPEAKER_00]: They didn't have a quarterback.
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't have a lot of upside on that offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: It just felt like a disaster of a situation and yet people still drafted Breeze Hall in the third round.
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're doing it again this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I don't necessarily have a problem with Breeze Hall is like a fantasy player this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is way more based on the price right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: His ADP is.
[SPEAKER_00]: 30th overall.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're talking about early to mid third round pick the RB14 off the board, which is like borderline and RB1 for your team.
[SPEAKER_00]: I currently have him ranked 41st overall as my RB18.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the obvious upgrades to the jets are they get Geno Smith at quarterback.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, Geno played horrendously last year in Las Vegas.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say a lot of that has to do with the offensive line.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was just being under pressure.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's probably somewhere in the middle of what we saw last year and what we saw in his Seattle day.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'll be fine.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'll give them a little bit more of a floor than any of the Jess quarterback's gave them last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And they do bring in some more weapons, right, Kenyan Sideek or Mark Cooper, all those kind of guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: So hopefully the offense moves a little bit more smoothly.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't see the situation being that different from last year for Bree's Hall in particular.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like a lot of the reasons I didn't want to invest heavily to Bree's Hall was I didn't think the offense was going to score a lot of touchdowns.
[SPEAKER_00]: Their win total is very low again this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Bree's Hall's rushing touchdown line this year is again five and a half.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was four and a
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just not a team that's projected to score a lot of points.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think people forget as well, going into last year, we were worried about a little bit of a committee there with Braylon Allen taking short down and goal line work.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we were worried about Isaiah Davis, you know, kind of slifering in some past catching work and playing on like third down in very, very obvious passing down situations.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we literally saw that play out until Braylon Allen got hurt.
[SPEAKER_00]: And Braylon Allen's going to be healthy this year going in.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the way I'm looking at is like,
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, Brieces the Workhorse.
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, they're going to try to get him that bell-cow status.
[SPEAKER_00]: They give him the extension.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think a lot of the offense is going to run through him.
[SPEAKER_00]: However, I don't think the third round 80P is warranted given we pretty much saw this same situation play out last year for this offense, where it was like Brieces getting a lot of touches, but getting a decent amount of empty touches.
[SPEAKER_00]: When they're down on the goal line, which won't be that often, they gave a lot of that work to Berlin Island.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's going to be the case going into this year as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: So for me, when it comes to briefs, when it comes to the Jets offense, when it comes to Aaron Glenn still being there.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know they're launching Stike in, but that's not something I'm overly optimistic about here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to be taking briefs all on the third round this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I can just tell you that if he starts to float more towards where my ranking of him is, which is 11 spots lower than ADP, I'm at 41 and he's at 30 overall.
[SPEAKER_00]: I get it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm fine taking because I do think at the end of the day, he'll probably average 18 touches the game.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a very, very good pass catching back.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I just get concerned with the overall offensive structure here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I get concerned with the touchdown upside for a guy like him moving on to Player Number 3.
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got Kyron Williams of the Rams.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now his ADP is one spot below Breeze Hall 31st overall RB 15 and ironically I have him one spot below Breeze Hall.
[SPEAKER_00]: My rankings for his second overall RB 19.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the thing with Kyron Williams, he's an incredibly high floor player.
[SPEAKER_00]: I still
[SPEAKER_00]: still believe like I don't think you're going to regret having him on your team.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think this price at your paying for him is a little bit risky and given like the very obvious material change that we saw in the Rams offense last year and it was Kyron and Blake Corrum straight up were just splitting drives.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was Kiron for a full drive, Blake Korm for a full drive.
[SPEAKER_00]: Kiron for a full drive, Blake Korm for a full drive.
[SPEAKER_00]: And yes, when it came down to crunch time, or if it was moments where like Sean McVeigh really needed to trust their running back, it's going to be Kiron Williams.
[SPEAKER_00]: He did get the extension.
[SPEAKER_00]: I still think he's that guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I'm not looking to spend the 305 on a dude who's going to be off the field on every other drive.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we saw that very, very clearly.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not very different than
[SPEAKER_00]: what we saw in Chicago last year where it's deandry swift and then columnon guy deandry swift and columnon guy and it doesn't mean none of these guys can be good fantasy players like again I think karen Williams still probably has a floor of eleven hundred total yards will flirt with eight to ten touchdowns which is good but that doesn't present you the upside that you're looking for in the third round of drafts like you're drafting a guy like karen Williams ahead of divanta smith ahead of like Josh Jacobs is here depending on how the legal situation plays out.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not trying to wrap my head around a dude who we just saw how the season played out and again high floor offense high floor player, but when we look at what changed carries per game 2023 for car in 19 20 24 19.8 last year that dip down to 15.2 and he's a he's a running back that does not catch a lot of passes he's average two catches per game.
[SPEAKER_00]: over the course of his career.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we saw a dip in rushing, which came as the obvious, you know, answer to Blake Corn getting a lot more carries here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're they're pretty similar players.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you have to give the advantage to Kyle and Williams just because what he's proven at the NFL level at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: But in terms of of like talent level, I don't think Kyle and Williams is like a needle mover relative to Blake Corn.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's a good player.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he can do it all when asked to when they get down to the goal line.
[SPEAKER_00]: They love to use the
[SPEAKER_00]: They love to use Pukana Kua.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if it's a drive or Blake corn just happened to be in, he's going to be the one that takes the touchdown there.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's going to be extremely frustrating.
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, not that unlike a full fade on car Williams, but if you're telling me car Williams goes at 30 overall and the odds are Swift goes at 55 overall to me they have extremely similar outlooks about what you're going to get on Sundays.
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving down the list, running back for another AFC East running back, and that is second year Patriot back, Trivion Henderson.
[SPEAKER_00]: Currently a top 50 pick, 49th overall, so you're talking about the four or five turn running back 21, which is pretty much exactly where he got drafted last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have him down at 67 overall running back 26.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like I'm right on the dot here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like this is exactly where people should be drafting him.
[SPEAKER_00]: After watching what we saw last year, I don't understand how people have this huge bull upside case for him, given last year, one of the reasons that I was a little bit hesitant because by the end of the summer, he was like a third round pick.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was at the three four turn and I get it.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a lot of upside he was an explosive player.
[SPEAKER_00]: We thought he was just going to blow past from Andre Stephenson, but one of the cases I kept making was that Josh McDaniel that O.C.
[SPEAKER_00]: had always historically used a running back by committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: He had always, it's like a 20-year example window that we basically have for this.
[SPEAKER_00]: And any time he didn't use it, which was a very, very small sample size of just a few years of the years that he was either head coach or no see, it had been because he had a back that was like 225 plus pounds and Oshama reino's of the world where Trev and Anderson is not that guy and then we saw that play out it was cool.
[SPEAKER_00]: completely in RBBC there, with Traveon and Ramanjari Stevenson, and Traveon had these very very high-upside games because Ramanjari was out.
[SPEAKER_00]: If we're being realistic here, there are a ton of running back sick and have massive fantasy days when given a bell-cat roll.
[SPEAKER_00]: That encapsulates the entire argument of the positional value of running back.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like when Josh Jacobs is out, a manual Wilson has massive upside days.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of everywhere around the league.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you give any of these like top tier athlete running back 20 plus touches in a game,
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not the question that you need to be asking yourself as a fantasy owner, as a fantasy director.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's whether or not they will.
[SPEAKER_00]: Will they get those touches and in this offense, no.
[SPEAKER_00]: So with Travy on, he struggled a lot in the past blocking role, where Mondry is much bigger and much better at that.
[SPEAKER_00]: As a down-to-down runner, I don't think anyone can argue that her Mondry was not
[SPEAKER_00]: better than Trayvon Anderson does he add a level of responsiveness to this offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's different than the Roger of course.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's the thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like that's what this tandem is going to bring to you.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's hard to see a huge upside case with Trayvon.
[SPEAKER_00]: Is he really going to get 10 plus carries per game this year?
[SPEAKER_00]: Is he going to get 12 plus carries per game this year?
[SPEAKER_00]: And if not, what kind of upside do we really see for this guy?
[SPEAKER_00]: On top of that, you add in some real, like target earners in AJ Brown, of course, and Romeo Dobbs this year, so I think Target's going to be a little bit more spread out through the offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I also think when you look at this schedule, last year, the obviously of the fourth place schedule, and now going to the Super Bowl, they have a much tougher schedule.
[SPEAKER_00]: When you look at the overall strength of schedule, the middle of it's kind of nice, but the ends of it, the sandwiches of it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the fantasy playoffs, great to have the New York Jets in the week 16, but the chiefs are tough in week 15.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Denver is obviously extremely tough in
[SPEAKER_00]: just looking ahead, the plow schedule is not super favorable for these running backs in either direction.
[SPEAKER_00]: So Trigon enters and not for me, it is current price tag.
[SPEAKER_00]: He will not be an end of the fourth early fifth round pick for myself.
[SPEAKER_00]: And even at that like six or seven round feels it feels right.
[SPEAKER_00]: It feels less risky, which is what you need to be doing when you're drafting a guy that feels risky.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we don't even know of Trigon enters in that good of an NFL running back.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was great in college.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's very explosive.
[SPEAKER_00]: He had some cool plays, he had some cool games, but there are a lot of running backs in the NFL that can do that on small sample sizes.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think the biggest pictures, we just have this massive sample size of Josh McDaniel using a committee and he just did that again.
[SPEAKER_00]: And Ramanjray was legitimately good for them in that committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving to the next player and I don't think we could have a list here on this channel that was talking about guys that I do not want you to draft that I will not be your aftering that I would not even wish upon my worst enemy to draft and that is Kyle Pitz, the tight end of my Elena Falcons.
[SPEAKER_00]: Currently, the Titan 7 right now in ADP.
[SPEAKER_00]: Listen, I've got him as Titan 10.
[SPEAKER_00]: And even that, I don't love.
[SPEAKER_00]: People need to understand.
[SPEAKER_00]: You just need to understand that Kyle Pitz is a fucking nothing burger when Drake London is on the field.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was nearly a 10 point fantasy difference in games when Kyle Pitz played that Drake London did not play compared to when Drake London did play.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's genuinely just not very good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I watched these Falcons games.
[SPEAKER_00]: and he'll make a few good plays each year and people will like gawk at his athletic upside, but if you genuinely watch him play, he's way more of just like a catch and full guy than you realize.
[SPEAKER_00]: Way more often than not, he's actually not making plays with the ball on his hand.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he needs to be force fed targets when other guys are not on the field in order for him to see that upside come before it's.
[SPEAKER_00]: Among 49 qualified tight ends last year, his 4.5 yard death their catch per seption ranked 35th.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's what you get, typically, when you give Kyle Pitz a high volume of targets.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the quarterback situation is questionable, it's best there.
[SPEAKER_00]: If Drake London stays on the field, Kyle Pitz is giving you border line tight end 1 numbers.
[SPEAKER_00]: for him to be going anywhere even near the the second year players of Tyler Warren, Howard Fanning, above Sam Laporta, like, could never ever ever ever be me.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then lastly, we're actually going to just talk about the quarterback position.
[SPEAKER_00]: as a whole because if you look at my overall rankings which are available on the website right now bge.co I am significantly lower than almost every quarterback not named Josh Allen when it comes to their ranking within like overall one quarterback rankings.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just much lower than consensus on a lot of these guys, because I think the quarterback position down to like you be 15 is so, so, so deep.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like right now, Brock Pertis, the quarterback 12, Matthew Stafford is a quarterback 13.
[SPEAKER_00]: Mahomes is the quarterback 14.
[SPEAKER_00]: Both Nick's 15, Jaragov's 16.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Jordan love his down at quarterback 20.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't really see a world where I'm drafting Caleb Williams with like 6-7th round pick when I can get rock purdy or Matthew Stafford 50 picks later.
[SPEAKER_00]: I still have to get a little bit more clear on my take on the more Jackson on whether or not I want to put him closer to Josh Allen's here or further down towards like the Jaden Daniels a Drake maze of the world, but I just don't see a
[SPEAKER_00]: point per game difference from a lot of these guys to where the quarterback 12, 13, 14 is, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think with Lamar, you can make the case that it's going to be a brand new offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: No more Todd Munkin.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there could be a decline in just overall passing efficiency for something that they've had so much continuity for, but I also don't want to overthink Lamar Jackson.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jaden Daniels showed himself to be extremely, you know, injury prone at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: He gets hurt a lot that I'm great.
[SPEAKER_00]: Weapons there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Drake May is going to have a much tougher schedule this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jalen Hurts doesn't have AJ Brown anymore.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like,
[SPEAKER_00]: You can make the case for a lot of these guys having a little bit more risk reward than in typically years or Josh Allen just been the QB1 across the board for like five straight years at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's upside is crazy, it's fuller is crazy.
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I think like a tier two will eventually kind of emerge from this group.
[SPEAKER_00]: But right now, I don't see a world where I'm taking any of these guys 40, 50 spots higher than some of the guys that are further down below.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that was less of a player and more of an overall trend here where I just feel like the quarterback position.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you can get a Jordan love at quarterback 20 where I expect Green Bay to pass the ball more, I expect them to be a little bit more condensed in the offense.
[SPEAKER_00]: I expect Jordan love to kind of let it rip this year a bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: These are the guys I'll probably be taking more shots on.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there you have it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are five, six, 19 guys that I am lower on than general consensus right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: And as we pick up the pace of these videos, doing more per week, make sure you are subscribed to the channel and always hit the button that looks like this down below.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, put the D in the subscribe button.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let me know what kind of content you'd like to see for the remainder of the summer.
[SPEAKER_00]: and like I said, all of our rankings in our draft guide and everything is now available on the BDGE.co website in the fantasy membership.
[SPEAKER_00]: Everything is encapsulated in one membership this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: No separate products.
[SPEAKER_00]: So therefore you're nicely neatly packaged.
[SPEAKER_00]: I love y'all, Nixon foe.