[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's up, everyone?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome in to another episode of the Toolshed Podcast brought to you by Rotobar.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 454.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: Gonna be going over my, I, talk.
[SPEAKER_01]: up 500 dynasty rankings update that I put out about, you know, five days ago or so, going over some notable risers and followers got a dime to go over in Swan.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a pretty fun name and some bigger jumps and some bigger falloffs this month.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're about to live it over a third of the way through the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So data at this point feels more believable, you know, some of these breakouts do more believable.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've a bigger,
[SPEAKER_01]: data sample size to work with.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I feel it's a little bit easier to make those sizeable rankings adjustments whether positively or negatively at this point in the season as opposed to, you know, a little over a month into the season when I did my previous update.
[SPEAKER_01]: doesn't fund names to go over, but before I do, the usual housekeeping.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you enjoy the show, please rate and review on which it replat from you do listen on.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can follow me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB and the show is at Toolshed Pod.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of my rankings are updated on my Patreon.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so it's not just the top 500 dynasty.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have the top 500 OBP dynasty as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Redraff rankings just went up yesterday and my top 500 prospect rankings as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So all four of those two shared fantasy.com plus plenty of other content on there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you can also find my content over on Rotobar.
[SPEAKER_01]: And speaking of Rotobar, still running that spring special on Rotobar premium.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you use my code toolshed at checkout, you'll get a whopping 50% off of your premium subscription.
[SPEAKER_01]: Rotobar premium is worth the price at full cost and half off is just no brainer.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of great stuff in there, some of my contents in there, Nick Mariano's rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: You got Dynasty stuff, Prospect stuff, DFS stuff, some great tools,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, optimizers, a lot of great stuff in Rotobar premium, not just contents, tools, rankings, a lot of great stuff in there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, use that code at toolshed, add checkout, and mix you have the Rotobar app downloaded on your phone as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Before I get into the dozen names I mentioned here that I'm going to be going over in this episode a little bit of an announcement to start off this episode.
[SPEAKER_01]: In case you missed it, I tweeted out on Tuesday afternoon, I have a new co-host for the tool shed podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: You heard him two episodes ago on episode 452 Toby Schulman will be joining me moving forward as the regular co-host of the tool shed podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: gotten a note Toby over the last, you know, several weeks or so, I really love what he does on Twitter, especially, I guess, where I saw him originally, you know, he covers, you know, at majors, minors, college, draft,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, kind of everything that I like to do as well, I just what I like to do on this podcast is kind of give you a variety obviously with this being, you know, primarily a dynasty and prospect podcast or at least, you know, the the biggest slice of the tool should pipe, being dynasty and prospects, obviously that means the draft and you know, some low minor stuff, so love what Toby's doing and he really fit, you know, all the checkboxes that's kind of looking for.
[SPEAKER_01]: For the next co-hosts of this show, I've been doing it solo for the last 13 months or so since you know my good friend Mr. Chris Clegg stepped down the end of April last year brought on a lot of great guests and we're still getting to do so so I want a great guest to come on you know this you know this podcast moving forward but now I'll have a regular co-host that would be nice and some of these solo episodes why still love doing them you know it would be nice to have that
[SPEAKER_01]: learn from and grow with and keep growing this pot.
[SPEAKER_01]: So looking forward to working with Toby moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we can elevate this podcast even further than it already is and it's really looking forward to the future of the podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he will start up next week as the regular co-host.
[SPEAKER_01]: So looking forward to that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, Toby Schulman, new co-host of the toolshed podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome Toby looking forward to everything moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's get into the Rogers and Fallers here.
[SPEAKER_01]: First, one, I wanted to talk about Jacob, Missierowski.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this guy just threw 20 more 103 mount on our fastballs as I was reading that last section.
[SPEAKER_01]: This guy, it's ridiculous what he's doing right now and what he did in the month of May.
[SPEAKER_01]: In 38 and a third innings in May,
[SPEAKER_01]: He allowed 14 hits, one run, six walks, and 57 strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty good, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Sevant page is littered and read obviously the velocity everyone loves the the velocity Then you get some naysayers.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, he's gonna you know blow it is arm I mean it doesn't look like He's going like max effort over the top with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: It actually looks like it's I mean not an easy 103 But not an overexerted 103 either
[SPEAKER_01]: and then you see guys going the aisle that throw low 90s.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not really one to be up hard to throw or a big slider, you know, low 90s slider.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's got to get Tommy John.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, a lot of these guys get end up getting some variation of elbow surgery at some point.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's almost inevitable.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's kind of how I look at it now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, all right, I'm not going to speak.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: he's getting Tommy John.
[SPEAKER_01]: If he does he does, if he does, if he doesn't, doesn't.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just going to enjoy the ride.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I have a lot of Mr. Husky shares, thankfully, both in redraft and dynasty.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he actually was my last keeper in my homekeeper league.
[SPEAKER_01]: I forget who I was debating on.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I actually came down to him.
[SPEAKER_01]: in soda strong, which I was actually really upset about not keeping soda strong, so I like soda strong a good bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I still think he's a good player, but obviously that has worked out pretty darn well for the season a 39.6% strike rate in a 165 ERA 0.79 whip in 12 starts 108k is in 71 innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: So at this point, I have them up to number 19 overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was 51 in the previous update.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now he's number three overall in terms of my dynasty picture or starting picture rankings, I should say.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think it's deserved.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he is, he's
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the most electric arms in the game, he's must see TV every start for him is must watch if you can.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he, I think he deserves to be number three right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Number one is Paul schemes.
[SPEAKER_01]: Number two is still terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I have
[SPEAKER_01]: Mr. Rusky in the three spot, thank Christopher Sanchez, number four, amongst starting pitchers, Chase Burns, number five, Garrett Crochet, six, Yoshinobu, Yelamoto, number seven, Kim Schlittler is number eight, Nolan McLean, number, excuse me, Brian Wu, number nine, Nolan McLean, number 10, Hunter Brown is number 11 and Logan Gilbert, number 12.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's the top 12 with Ms. Rusky in that three spot.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's really not a lot to nitpick.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's even dropped the walk rate from 11%.
[SPEAKER_01]: 7% that's been kind of the issue for him dating back to his days in the end of my week, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, he throws hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets a lot of strength.
[SPEAKER_01]: Alex, but can't keep the walk rate in check.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, not only is he doing what he's doing, he also, again, has dropped that walk rate by 4%.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's not a lot to nitpick here.
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets decent amount of ground balls as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's actually improved the ground ball rate by about 9% this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's allowing less pulled air contact, less pulled contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, let's less balls in the air in general, you know, he misses a ton of bats within the zone.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a 28% in zone with rate 38.7% overall with rate and a 31 and a half percent chase rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, I was out of, oh, he throws hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: He might get hurt soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's nothing you can nitpick about Missierowski and I don't even think that's a legitimate nitpick at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: As I just said, you know, a couple of minutes ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: And as you're asking, 24 years old, number three, Donuts, he's starting a picture for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is an absolute stud and I love watching at this guy pitch.
[SPEAKER_01]: Next up we have Jordan Walker, one of the biggest risers of this season and you know what about damn time.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like we've been waiting for this Jordan Walker breakout to happen for a few years now and maybe that part of that's on us for expecting too much too soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we never do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Nobody ever expects too much from top prospects right away.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we never do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now it's finally happening, better late than ever, I guess.
[SPEAKER_01]: 284 351-541 slash line for Walker in this first 242 plate appearances this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: 15 home runs, seven steels, 39 runs scored and 43 RBI.
[SPEAKER_01]: He went from 158 to 27 in this update.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yes, I realize that's aggressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I might end up, you know, not looking good for that ranking in a month or two because there's a lot of variance with Walker.
[SPEAKER_01]: I get that, but this is a former top prospect who has made tangible changes and we're seeing the breakout because of it.
[SPEAKER_01]: get the contact rates are still below average here, and it's not like he's making a above average contact or anything like that now, but in 77% inzone and 69% overall contact rate are not bad when you factor in the quality of contact that Walker has.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we're like, see those a little bit higher, absolutely, but those are serviceable, given his elite quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: Walker has a 14 and a half percent barrel rate, 94.4 mile an hour average, exit velocity, and a 53% heart hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also increased the walk rate by 1.4 percent and dropped the K rate by 6.2 percent from 31.8 to 25.6 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, all of that, all that's
[SPEAKER_01]: court of contact, you know, the key rate going down, the walker going up, but the biggest improvement and encouraging factor of walkers profile has to be the better battled ball angles.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's really, let's unlocked a lot of this.
[SPEAKER_01]: 59.2% air rate, that's up nearly 7% from last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, ground bar rates down to only 40.8% after being in the upper 40s, or even 50% the first three years of his career.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also pulling the ball a bit more, five and a half percent more often.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the pull air rate overall is 4% higher, going from 11.3 to 15.3.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, top of that walkers, if I'm going to laugh at 93% of the outsprincipates.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot to like here with the walker, I mean, we could easily see that grumble rate go back up, just more, you know, poor angles and seeing the production go back down.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's absolutely possible, but.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a sucker for a tangible changes, especially when it comes from some with this much upside, this much talent, you know, who was a former elite prospect, like this wasn't just like a top 100 guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: This was a top five top three guy, including in my own rankings back in, who will have been 22, 22, 23, whatever it was when he came up, yeah, he debuted in 23, so it must been 22 and then early part of 23 when he hit peak value in terms of prospect rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we had those spring training games a couple of which I was at when he had some mammothoma runs, which really elevated the hype, but tangible changes here.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a hundredth percentile bat speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like there's a lot of good skills, you know, a lot of great skills.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just hopefully the Grumball rate doesn't go back up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully Walker can keep these batable angles in this area.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because the upside is a 40-homor bat.
[SPEAKER_01]: net with 15 the 20 steals and an average so you can live with hopefully it's 250 plus even of some aggression.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you can let's go like 260 with 35 the 40 home runs and 18 the 20 steals bunch of runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: bunch of RBI, that'll play.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think at that point you got to consider him in that top 10 outfield discussion.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why I bumped him up a little bit further, even after I posted this top 500, because when I was looking at just outfielders, how was it, you know what?
[SPEAKER_01]: do I like Kyle Tucker more than him at this point?
[SPEAKER_01]: Do I like even Roman Anthony?
[SPEAKER_01]: Even me as a Red Sox fan.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was questioning that as well because Anthony's got some durability concerns at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: Will he ever translate the elite quality of contact to, you know, big time home run production?
[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't steal as many bases as Walker.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're like, you know, maybe long-term the better fantasy play could be Jordan Walker.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, again, this is a risky ranking.
[SPEAKER_01]: I get that.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Jordan Walker deserves a big bump at this month.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the other really massive riser in this month's update.
[SPEAKER_01]: Got that rose a lot in April's update as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Miguel Vargas.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know who my most tweeted about player is this year, but I feel like Miguel Vargas is probably in the running for that title, at least top five.
[SPEAKER_01]: Very different profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I should say very different, but it's a more steady, well-rounded profile when compared to Jordan Walker.
[SPEAKER_01]: Walker has bigger peaks, but bigger valleys as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Vargas is just good across the board.
[SPEAKER_01]: not, you know, not huge power, but definitely above average, or even plus power, he's got a 15.3% in barrel rate, 90.4 mile an hour average EV, 46.5% hard hit rate, contact skills, a pretty solid, 81.5% in zone, 79.9% overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: But where he really stands out is the plate discipline, only an 18.8% Chaserate, 14.8% walkerate, and a 17.1% strike over a, I had a tweet yesterday that he's the only one in baseball along with James Woods, only two of them to have at least 35 runs, 35 RBI, 15 homeruns, and nine steel so far, and James Woods been
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, one of the three or four probably best fantasy players in the game this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's another guy, former prospect has some struggles as first few years, mainly with the Dodgers, went to the white sucks last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: We sort of seeing some signs here with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He could maybe be something, you know, it's funny how consistent playing time can really
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Dalton Rushing could be traded from the Dodgers and boom, he could be something good too.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's these guys like Vargas Bush, the perfect example of this too, Rushing.
[SPEAKER_01]: These talented guys that get in consistent playing time and really limits them, and then Vargas is in
[SPEAKER_01]: in a full-time gig he has been for the last two years now and he's really taking this game to the next level.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's 241-366-509 slash line.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's really no weakness in the profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: There really isn't.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's even hitting well against all pitch types or making contact over 75 percent of the time against fastballs, breaking balls, and off speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's actually hitting
[SPEAKER_01]: against offsby pitches.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's really, really impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's at good bad at ball angles as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so while he might have the blinding red in certain areas of the profile on savon, like Jordan Walker does, I'm 100% buying the profile with Vargas.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like this profile backs up what he's doing.
[SPEAKER_01]: And at this point, he's in the top five the discussion at their base.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has to be.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, third base is kind of weird.
[SPEAKER_01]: at this point because I mean, you got the young suds of the top, you know, Caminaro and Kevin McGonagall.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, those guys are great and those guys are both top 20 for me right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then I drop down and you got Joe Ram, who's still very good, not quite the usual Joe Ram that we know and love this year, but still a very good player.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, still got us to give you better seasons than most other hitters in baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's also nearly 34 at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: So how much longer is Joe Ram going to stick up there?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, so he's 34 and around three or four months right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's the end of the season that he turns 34.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you got to imagine that that slow trickle off is coming and I think it might have already started to come.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's enough off a cliff, but, you know, Joe Rimm is probably going to slide down rankings in the coming years, so South Stewart and Miguel Vargas are currently four and five at this position in my rankings that are probably jumping up.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, jazz chisms there too, but he's losing eligibility more than likely after the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, it won't be surprising me if Stewart and Vargas are the number three and four guys at this position, you know, as soon as next year or even later this year, if this continues, and they could make a nice little, you know, fab four at the hot corner along with McGonagall and Camernero.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think Vargas is here to stay, the profile really backs it up, and I'm very much a believer in this breakout.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, next up here, the first follower of the episode is Zach Netto with the Los Angeles Angels.
[SPEAKER_01]: He fell from 27 to 49 overall in my May update, and you'll notice I'm going in order of where they are now in my ranking.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the same format I did in the prospect episode where it's not just like all the followers,
[SPEAKER_01]: And then oh is at 49, not a terrible season for neto.
[SPEAKER_01]: You still get 10 on runs, eight steals and a 42 run score.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's actually on pace to blow by his previous career high in run score, which was 82 last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not pace for over 100 runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now, he's sitting a lot of doubles still in pace for, you know, 26, 27 home runs, you know, right around like 21, 22 steels, that'll be a third straight 2020 year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he actually has the best OBP of his career as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: 339 after being in that 310 to 320 range is first 3 years of his career career.
[SPEAKER_01]: Excuse me, I got the hiccups all of a sudden, but the slugging percentage down to 427 and the batting average down to 231.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those would be the lowest marks he's had since his rookie year back in 2023, so what's going on?
[SPEAKER_01]: quality of contact has ticked down.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's still decent 11% barrel 89.5 mile an hour average EV 37.3% hard hit rate, but the carates up to a career worse 29.9%.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he is walking more than ever before.
[SPEAKER_01]: He'd been right around 6.6% walkerate as first three years.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's more than doubled.
[SPEAKER_01]: His walkerate last year of 6% up to 12.4%.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's nice to see, but he's really struggling against anything that's not a fastball.
[SPEAKER_01]: Fastballs, he's hitting 276 with a 569 slug in the 81 and a 1.5% contact rate, breaking balls to 15 with a 344 slug in a 54.3% width rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I should mean I have contact rate, 45.7% width rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's not good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then off speed, he's hitting 0-8-0, but with zero extra base hits and a, yeah, assuming a 65 and a half percent contact rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, again, power is still decent.
[SPEAKER_01]: The bad at ball angles are there.
[SPEAKER_01]: His zone context actually, right around the GAVER to 82 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: but is overall contact is down to 70.2%.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I still think he's a good player.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still haven't taught 15.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he can stick in this 50-ish range, but maybe he's not a top 25 guy, like many of us thought.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got him right around 25.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know others had a little bit higher than me as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Could he get back there?
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he'll need to cut the carate down and make a little more contact and fix the issues against non fast balls and then he can get back there, but even as is, you know, he's like a two foot to 45 to 50 hitter with, you know, 25, the 30 home runs and 20 to 25 steals, you know, these similar runs on our BI, that's still a very good player.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I'm not screaming to sell him and dying to leagues, the sky is not falling here, but had to give a little bit of a drop off to Zack Neto and kind of won the outline, some of those concerns I have with the profile right now, but he's still getting that six seven range for short stops though.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, again, sky is not falling here with Neto, but he dropped from 27 to 49.
[SPEAKER_01]: in this update, next up, back to a riser with a Gavin Williams who went from 118 to 87 in this past update, really encouraging month from Gavin Williams.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this ERA and whip weren't like phenomenal, there was a 355 ERA, 118 whip in the month of May and he actually gave up around a hit per inning as well, but well, I'm really really encouraged by.
[SPEAKER_01]: five walks in 33 innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Five walks in 132 batters face.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's right around a 4% walkerate for the month of May and that was in five starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: So one walker per start he was averaging.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's awesome.
[SPEAKER_01]: Anyone that's followed my work, whether it's on here and writing knows that I've always liked Williams, but the one drawback I had, which really kept me from pushing him to highly in rankings, was the higher walk rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, like the stuff has always been really good in the velocity, breaking stuff is really fun, but last year he had 11.8% walk rate, which I believe was the highest or second highest among all qualified starters.
[SPEAKER_01]: And once you get up in that 12% walk rate range, I just,
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a big red flag for me, but he dropped that down to 7.9% this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was already trending down and then that trend down got even bigger this past month, again with those only five walks in the entire month.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's down to 7.9% overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: while still having a career best 29% strike all right as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So 21.1% came on.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's walk rate easily.
[SPEAKER_01]: The best market is career by several percentage points.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he still has the sweeper with a 44% wave freight.
[SPEAKER_01]: The foreseamers a lot better this year only a 210 batting average against and 403 slug a loud.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's down from 268 and 498 respectively.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's we per second a nice step forward this year curve ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's still doing pretty good as well So you still got the good three pitch mix there mixes in a sinker as well, which has been actually a nice addition as well Yeah, you only used it six and a half percent on the time last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's up to 16% this year 196 betting average against on that offering That's a decent fourth offering that he can add into the mix.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was really
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, not a big sinker usage guy last year you use the cutter more last year that's gone down.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I kind of swapped the cutter and I for the sinker seems to be a nice, you know, switch in the arsenal as well, you know, ground ball rate better than the average at 46% so you're still getting plenty of ground balls as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're free to up to a career best 30.7% Chase Ray has jumped a lot as well from 26% to 34 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of the like here, I don't think he's an ace or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do have him as a top 100 guy now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he's definitely in that top 20, the 25, discussion at the starting picture position.
[SPEAKER_01]: really encouraged from what I've seen with William so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, these changes, you see this tangible rising, these risers have tangible changes behind them.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Jordan Walker, the bad at ball angles, Gavin Williams, the lower walker eight.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are the things I love to hone in on.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like why is this guy improving?
[SPEAKER_01]: And is there a reason behind it or is he getting lucky?
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think either of these guys have gotten lucky.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Williams definitely really like what
[SPEAKER_01]: him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Next one up here we get Jackson Merrill.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's taking the tumble and back to back rankings updates now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Still top 100 for now.
[SPEAKER_01]: You dropped from 64 to 92, but I'm wondering if I don't know, I don't know if he's a top 100 guy anymore.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I kept them there for now, but I didn't feel right about it, but a lot of those guys in that range weren't like screaming to jump ahead of them.
[SPEAKER_01]: Why the guys in that range are kind of struggling as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, Merrill for now, clicking at the top 100 status, but I didn't see something from him soon or he's not going to be top 100 anymore, because Yeah, last year was all right.
[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't nearly as good as the 2024 rookie year.
[SPEAKER_01]: We were just getting pushed to elite ranks.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can steal many bags last year, only one steal, thankfully, so he's running again this year, 10 steals and 230 plate appearances, but only five home runs and a 208-281-333 slash line.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's walking more than ever, and the walkerie has slowly been ticking up every single year.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's up to 8.7% this year, quality of contact is still solid and pretty much in line with previous years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, he's a 10% barrel of 89.4 mile an hour average EV and a 45.7% heart hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: That last one actually is a career best mark.
[SPEAKER_01]: for Jack Samaril, but he's not hitting quite as many balls in the air, the air rates down a couple of ticks, two and a half ticks, but that's nothing massive.
[SPEAKER_01]: Really, there's not hasn't been a ton of
[SPEAKER_01]: metrics that have gotten worse this series is metrics are all pretty much in line with previous years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is more so, you know, the overall service production kind of more so meeting the underlying metrics.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he's not going to lead metric die.
[SPEAKER_01]: but he's not a bad metric guy either.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's a little aggressive, you know, 34 and a half percent chase rate and you know, the context skills are a bit below average, but not terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: So in general, the reason why I kept him in here was because this looks kind of like a top 100 profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: You add in 87% of sprint speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's slightly above average in quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: Doesn't strike out too much.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the carates up to 24.9% and that's not terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's walking a bit more.
[SPEAKER_01]: The context skills are not bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're rather only average.
[SPEAKER_01]: She's a little aggressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so this wasn't screaming bad profile, bad metrics.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not the case here.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's doing more damage against non-fast balls.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's well under 200 against both breaking and off-speed pitches this year, and not really doing a lot of damage at all.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has any pitch types, so there's some things to work on here, but obviously he's just staying in the lineup, but he's on any danger of being banished or losing playing time.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a really good fielder, really good base energy, so that's a lot going for him in addition to the upside he has to play it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you can bounce back.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you can still be like that 75 to 100 guy in dicey rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: So general, if you could buy low, if you can get it for a non top 100 price segment right now, I won't be opposed to that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't think Elite Merrill is walking back through that door either.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, next one here, a sneaky guy that's, you know, has been on a few of my teams this year, thankfully, so I don't Lopez got to, I like the lock coming into the year, this is like a steady middle-infield option, got to had dual eligibility and sick of based on the shorts I've entered in the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, probably loses that, but.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, he's just quietly but doing his thing without a lot of fanfare.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's hitting 331, 362, 462, 33 runs scored, 4 home runs, 10 steals and 24 RBI.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's on pace for a little less home run than last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he only had 15 steals last year, he's on pace for about 26, 27 this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is on pace to blow past.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was 66 runs a last year as a pace for around 90 runs this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll have a much higher average, much higher OBP, and much higher slug.
[SPEAKER_01]: But all those are much, much higher than last year, you know, by a considerable margin.
[SPEAKER_01]: The contact is up to 91.2% in zone and 79.6% overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's a bit aggressive 35% chase rate, but he's near elite context, he was overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the quality of contact is also ticked up this season, which is nice to see.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was never like a slap hit or by any means, but he was around average in terms of average EV and hard hit rate the last couple of seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this year he's up to a 90.5 mile an hour average EV that's up to full ticks from last year and the hard hit rate has jumped from 38.3% to 44.4%.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's basically doing what, I think we all hope Luke Kieshal was going to do who I actually will be talking about here in about five minutes or so, but Lopez is on pace to give you like 10 to 12 steals.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, should be 10 to 12 home runs or so, if 25 steals, 90 runs, it can be 70 RBI, something like that, I'll give you a good average as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I don't think there's a lot of additional upset to be had here, and this is probably, you know, best case scenario for Lopez, but hey, this is a pretty solid guy to have in your middle and field, probably not a guy you'd be super excited about having as your starter.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I like shortstop or second base, but a really good middle-inthed option and he's still only 27 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's I think there's a chance he could be like a top 150 guy or something like that, you know, for the next handful of years.
[SPEAKER_01]: going over to the pitching side now.
[SPEAKER_01]: We got Kyle Harrison who's having just the phenomenal year.
[SPEAKER_01]: In 10 starts, I mean, he's starting to knight as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Actually, let me pull up the box score here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Or maybe the pitch earlier today.
[SPEAKER_01]: What up, not the game's still going on.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is currently the...
[SPEAKER_01]: middle of the fourth, so he just finished pitching in the top of the fourth inning, he's facing the Giants, and woo, damn.
[SPEAKER_01]: Four innings, three hits, zero runs, one walk, and ten strikeouts so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: Wow.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, right on cue, Kyle Harrison, you know, it's doing what he's done, all season, but obviously the metrics and stats, I'll be listing here, it'll be before this start.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, 157 ERA 1003 whip, 29.6% strikeout rate, and a 6.8% walk rate, all of those are career best marks by a considerable margin for Kyle Harrison, you know, Milwaukee, just working their magic once again.
[SPEAKER_01]: They seem to do this time and time again.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Kyle Harrison is the latest and greatest example of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is a guy that I was never super high on.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I thought he was a decent pitching prospect.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I saw him back when he was a top pitching prospect.
[SPEAKER_01]: And when he came to AA, and I wasn't blown away.
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, you get in the Milwaukee.
[SPEAKER_01]: Good things seem to happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, why I was not super high on him and San Fran, or even when he was here for a quick stop over in Boston.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm definitely buying in right now, you know, with that said, I still don't think he's like, I don't think he's this good even tonight, he's had 10 cases and four handings right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it looks like he's having another phenomenal star.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't value him as an ace moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: Could he be a top 25 guy?
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that's where he could be he's primarily fastball slurve He's still going very happy to those two pitches change up when he uses about 11% of the time and then the occasional Sinker so they don't really tinker with the pitch mix
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Boston was trying to get them to throw a cutter, because Boston really loves cutters.
[SPEAKER_01]: The cutters gone this year, but really, they're letting them do a thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, I don't know, I haven't really dug into what exactly did they change under the hood with Kyle Harrison, but the fastball has been good this year, and the breaking ball has been phenomenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I'm assuming they did something with the breaking ball because it has a 109 batting image against and a 127 slug last year was getting hit around a lot, 333 batting image against in a 639 slug both the force eamer and the slurve have a decent with rate 30
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I assume they tinkered with something with that offering, and again, I haven't fully done like a deep dive on if anything did happen, and they changed the grip on it or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's arm angle, actually is 60 degrees higher this year, so that might have something to do with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was 27 degrees last year, 33 degrees this year, that's a little bit of adjustment there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, I don't think he's an ace, but you know, very very encouraging what we seem of him so far this season and definitely believe he could stick around as a top 25 picture moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: He got a love him in Milwaukee.
[SPEAKER_01]: He got a love when any any talented arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: gets into pitching rich system that has a good track record of developing pitchers.
[SPEAKER_01]: And right now, Milwaukee, they're at their the top dog in terms of that right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Harrison, big jump up rankings this month going from 279 to 147.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now we get over to the aforementioned Luke Kieshal who dropped from 119 to 153 this month.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is after a relatively similar drop off in April.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he was like the 70 Ish range entering the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you stopped about like 40 or so spots, give or take in both updates so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: This season.
[SPEAKER_01]: just hasn't been the guy we thought and really exciting rookie year last year, 302-3-2-445, four bombs, 14 steals, and 207 played appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of people were high in him entering this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was absolutely one of those people, but the quality of contact is really what's limiting him here.
[SPEAKER_01]: He still makes plenty of contact, and actually even more contact than last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So 92% inzone, 85% overall contact rate, only chances of that 24% clip, only strikes out 15 and a half percent of the time, solid 8.8% walkerate as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: 86% tile, sprint speed, everything to do with making contact and keeping the K rate and check and stealing bags is still a good part of his profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: but the quality of contact, which was already below average last year, has ticked down and that's just really limiting him right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Only a 3% Bell rate, 84.3 mile an hour average EV and a 27.2% hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: A top of that, you know, the poll aerates pretty low.
[SPEAKER_01]: So when it comes to power, this is not a lot to be excited about here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably while you only is one home run, and so far this year, but hey, that's the same amount as Fernando Tattis Junior, only two behind Vlad Junior, so it's not terrible, but no, it really is what's limiting him right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's just not impacting the ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: much at all.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a lot of singles, you know, as a handful of doubles in here, but, you know, really, look at his spray chart, not a lot of balls he's kind of driven, even the home money had wasn't like that long.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, if you can somehow impact the ball a bit more that that's easier said than done.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, oh, yeah, I just increased the average TV a few ticks.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not something that usually happens in season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe they'd bulk up off season, and then, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, right now, Kishul is sliding down rankings, so is the next guy Joe Adele, but for different reasons, you know, Joe Adele, I'm in a really weird career for Joe Adele.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just when we think we have him figured out, he changes.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like the profile shifts, he gets better at something or it gets worse at something else.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like just when we think we have a good handle of where we should be ranking the valuing Joe Adele.
[SPEAKER_01]: then something happens and now we feel bad about our ranking and that's maybe that's me, but I never like where I have Joe at Hellranked.
[SPEAKER_01]: He dropped 30 spots this month from 131 to 161 so far in 254 player paruses 236 283 84 slash line.
[SPEAKER_01]: So similar average and it'll be p to last year but the slug has dropped 101 points.
[SPEAKER_01]: only nine home runs so he's on pace for about yeah still 25 home runs we hit 37 last year three steals only 22 runs scored 34 rb i so you know he's still on again 20 i got 25 like 88 99 rb i pace
[SPEAKER_01]: But not scoring a lot of runs, not stealing bags and just not giving you as much as he did last year again, like that slug is down, you know, the slug and the ice up both down 101 points.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, why.
[SPEAKER_01]: is that happening?
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, well, the quality of contact is still good.
[SPEAKER_01]: No, no one point to mine or average EVs are only done half a tick.
[SPEAKER_01]: 46% heart hit rate is down four ticks from 50% last year, but that's still well above league average.
[SPEAKER_01]: K-rate is actually, you know, down the 23%, that's a career, assuming not a career best, but the best he's had since his 2021 season, half a decade ago,
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's walking less here.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was a below average walk rate guy, but now it's down to 2.8% So that's not great
[SPEAKER_01]: and the barrel rate's been basically cut in half.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm 17.3% to 8.9% you know, pull air rates down a little bit, air in pull rates are both pretty similar for there, but I do think there's a buying opportunity here because again, looking at the profile, there's still some good signs here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's chasing more, walking a little bit less, but still in a above average power guy,
[SPEAKER_01]: the contact rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: 84.8% in zone in the 73.9% overall contact rate are both career best marks for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's continue to get better and better at making contact, but he's also chasing a little bit more as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: 5% jump in the chase rate up to 37.8%.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's some good some bad here, but I still think Joe Adele is a good power source, so I don't think that's kind of flying up the window anytime soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's a powerful guy, he's a good athlete, and he's making improvements in certain areas of the profile, so has an elite bat speed as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's maybe he's not going to be a top 100 guy, but I think he can kind of stick around that top 150 range or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you can get him for
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, more like a top 200 price tag.
[SPEAKER_01]: You may be the person rostering Adele kind of just tired of them, you know, this year and maybe you can get them for a decent value there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Next one here, we'll keep it out west, go to the San Francisco Giants, and a pleasant surprise over the last month or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: Casey Schmidt.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the Giants offense has been starving for some good bats here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Elders has given them something now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Roffey Davers is getting going.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Casey Smith has been a nice surprise for them this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: 250 played appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's flashing 289, 326, 537 with 12 home runs, 5 steals, 33 RBI and 27 runs scored.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: is pretty solid here and the barrel rates take it a huge jump.
[SPEAKER_01]: Average EV and hard hit rate are pretty much, you know, this only slightly up from last year at 89.7 miles an hour and 45% respectively.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the barrel rate has jumped from 9% to 15.1%.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's huge.
[SPEAKER_01]: Launch angle is up to 22.5 degrees.
[SPEAKER_01]: and the pull air rates up to 28.7%.
[SPEAKER_01]: So good bad at ball angles going together with some pretty good quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's being more aggressive this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Walk rates down from 7.8 to 3.3%.
[SPEAKER_01]: Chase rates up from 31.5% to nearly 36%.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's also writing an 80.2% zone and 76.9% overall contact rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So those are both solidly above league average.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's always checking out 20% of the time as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the OBP probably isn't going to be great, but he could be a 270 hitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: He could give you 25 home runs and 10 steals or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a pretty solid corner in the field right there for you.
[SPEAKER_01]: 20 only 27 years old no there was some prospect you know not I want to hype with Schmidt but he was a decent prospect back in the day
[SPEAKER_01]: He was a second round pick by the giants back in that short in 2020 draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it was like he came out of nowhere either.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, prosper development is not linear.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've said it a million times and I'll say it a million times into the future.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Schmidt's a good example of that guy that's kind of late 20s.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's 27 right now, late 20s bloom right here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's a lot to like here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I guess you Schmidt was a decent riser.
[SPEAKER_01]: huge drives are actually actually as I said decent you want them 483 to 175 in this update
[SPEAKER_01]: Last one, I'm talking about here, Trevor Rogers.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't speak with Joe Adele, like when you figure out, when you think you figure out where you want to rank the guy, and then let's go the opposite way.
[SPEAKER_01]: Trevor Rogers is the epitome of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he had that really good year handle years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he had a couple of years of just poor performance, injuries, and that really giving you a lot in terms of fantasy value.
[SPEAKER_01]: But then last year, he comes back,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the halfway point of the season, maybe 18 starts with a 181 ERA in a 0.90 whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this year, sort of off, okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: First handful of starts were fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then, you know, the last was the last, was it eight starts, I think, have been pretty terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe start it off in late March, seven shot out innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty good, all right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then, first two starts in April,
[SPEAKER_01]: both six innings six hits two runs allowed.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: So only four earn runs is first 20 or should be first 19 innings and then starting on April 14th.
[SPEAKER_01]: It went all downhill.
[SPEAKER_01]: So last seven starts four and two thirds four runs five innings five runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Innings two third three runs four innings six runs three and two third seven runs four and two third four runs six innings four runs
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the ERA is jumped from 189 to 684 in those seven starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: That, I mean, I actually had him in one league.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been on my bench for a good month now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to start him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I had him in, I think was tout draft of hope is the league I have him in here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I have not been starting him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I actually have Bejo as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're just showing on my bench, not getting in there because I don't trust them at all to start them.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's weird though, as Rogers has actually allowed lesser hard contact this year by about 10% which is really encouraging, but he's just not missing any bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: The key rate dropped from 24.3%, 17.3%, you know, his best pitches are not missing bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: The change up is supposed to be his bread and butter.
[SPEAKER_01]: That has a 317 batting average against this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's not being nearly as
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the overall with rates only 23.1% in zone with rate is 14 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still getting hit, hitters to chase, but just not getting them to whiff.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the problem.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're still putting the bat on the ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, when they're facing Trevor Rogers, you know, 156 whip on the C is an only 38k and 48 in two thirds and things.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I don't think he's just going to be unusable moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still think there's a fantasy relevant picture here, but I mean, I was never super high on Rogers at the end of the year, maybe I did get him in one league, but I think he fell a good bit in the draft to where I kind of liked where he was going.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think the up says limited.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's never been a big carry guy over the last handful years.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was early on in this career, but the last half decade or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: He just has not been a guy that misses a ton of bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: So can you get back to me top 60 top 75 SP level.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sure, but I don't think we're going to see.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, that high impact arm, you know, from Trevor Rogers come back.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's got that obviously you can't sell him right now because the value is pretty much cratered, but I'd hold, I won't give out rid of him now because you'd be getting you be selling way too low.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'd hold and hope he recoup some value, the maybe but together a good few starts then you can sell them that might be a path you can take But I do think he bounces back to some degree, but again, I just don't think we're seeing anywhere near to the same value that we saw from him last year or even back in What was it 2020 The one I think was as good year.
[SPEAKER_01]: What was that good year for him?
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, yeah, 2021 when you had a two, six, four year, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that high impact arm is going to be there, but they can top 75, top 60 or so arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that that that that that value could be there for Rogers moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, so that's going to wrap up this episode, uh, fun 12 names here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, some some risers, some followers, a bunch of big movers this month.
[SPEAKER_01]: All my rankings are updated on my Patreon.
[SPEAKER_01]: So go check those out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, toolshed, fantasy.com and I'll be back with you again next week with Toby making his debut as co-host of the toolshed, but until then, everyone take care.