WEBVTT 00:01.930 --> 00:07.955 [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to another episode of Shooting the Shit with Literary Agents, Carly Waters, and CC Lyra. 00:08.456 --> 00:13.800 [SPEAKER_01]: Where we dissect publishing gossip, discuss book industry trends, and the overall state of the book business. 00:14.201 --> 00:18.725 [SPEAKER_01]: If you'd ever wanted to grab a coffee with two literary agents, grab your mug, and pull up a chair. 00:26.973 --> 00:47.227 [SPEAKER_01]: Hi everybody, it is shooting the ship just with Carly today because this is my solo episode, CC is in Aspen at her conference and we just couldn't make the timing work with our travel this time so I'm going to take a solo week and then CC is going to take a solo week and hopefully we'll be back in our routine before too long but I was thinking about what to cover. 00:47.847 --> 00:48.807 [SPEAKER_01]: for my solo episode. 00:48.907 --> 00:50.728 [SPEAKER_01]: I thought I could have a guest on. 00:50.808 --> 00:52.289 [SPEAKER_01]: I could do questions. 00:52.869 --> 00:53.589 [SPEAKER_01]: I could do a panel. 00:53.649 --> 00:59.832 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, my mind was spinning about all the things that I could do, but it is so hard to get so many people in one place these days. 01:00.252 --> 01:04.394 [SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of you guys haven't experienced my course yet, the author's publishing playbook. 01:04.474 --> 01:04.774 [SPEAKER_01]: So, 01:05.474 --> 01:21.711 [SPEAKER_01]: I thought this would be a great opportunity to give you guys a snapshot of what it is like inside my course and so I have prepared an excerpt for you guys so you can experience what it is like to be inside my course and we're going to talk about trends while you do and don't need them going to a bit of a. 01:22.612 --> 01:36.972 [SPEAKER_01]: History of trends, what they mean, why they matter a bit of the kind of intellectual aside in the theory of trends and how they relate to the book business specifically and layer that over top of something that's happening in the kind of romance. 01:37.573 --> 01:40.394 [SPEAKER_01]: and escapism trend space, so I'm really looking forward to that. 01:40.414 --> 01:43.075 [SPEAKER_01]: But first, I wanted to cover some questions you guys sent in. 01:43.415 --> 01:47.657 [SPEAKER_01]: I asked you guys what should I cover doing this whole episode and you left me some questions. 01:47.917 --> 01:53.159 [SPEAKER_01]: So, first question I wanted to tackle was someone asked about the day in the life of a literary agent. 01:53.219 --> 02:00.662 [SPEAKER_01]: How much time of it is spent on query letters, slash pile requests, and how do I fit in reading requests versus reading for a fun? 02:01.746 --> 02:06.107 [SPEAKER_01]: So this answer is going to be different depending on different agents. 02:06.347 --> 02:08.968 [SPEAKER_01]: It is obviously very specific to everybody and where they're at in their career. 02:09.348 --> 02:14.769 [SPEAKER_01]: But my answer is I spend very little time of my day actually reading. 02:14.969 --> 02:22.651 [SPEAKER_01]: Most of it is working on emails, proposals, pitch letters, I'm in Zoom meetings. 02:23.191 --> 02:25.272 [SPEAKER_01]: That part of my business takes up most of my day. 02:25.572 --> 02:29.673 [SPEAKER_01]: I have actually been trying more and more to do actually more reading during the business day. 02:32.030 --> 02:36.013 [SPEAKER_01]: between 4 and 5 p.m. that kind of like last hour of my work day. 02:36.073 --> 02:37.294 [SPEAKER_01]: That's my new goal. 02:37.414 --> 02:40.496 [SPEAKER_01]: I generally read queries kind of every couple weeks. 02:40.616 --> 02:46.320 [SPEAKER_01]: And then I forward the ones I'm interested in over to my sister, Maria, who then goes and does the requests. 02:47.020 --> 02:51.203 [SPEAKER_01]: But I'll have the reading is done in the evenings and on the weekends. 02:52.064 --> 02:55.445 [SPEAKER_01]: So very little bit is actually done during the day. 02:55.465 --> 03:02.607 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it all also depends on if it's a busy season or not, I have been reading a ton lately. 03:03.187 --> 03:11.749 [SPEAKER_01]: There's been a ton of things in my self-piled that I've had offers on it, so I'm reading everything that has an offer on it, and then I'm also kind of catching up on things that I specifically requested. 03:12.249 --> 03:13.109 [SPEAKER_01]: So it's a lot. 03:13.149 --> 03:21.973 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I can't even begin to tell you how much it is because I don't track every time I just pop into a manuscript and read a little bit like let's see. 03:22.013 --> 03:26.415 [SPEAKER_01]: So right now I'm just pulled up my Tracking air table right now. 03:26.455 --> 03:29.776 [SPEAKER_01]: So right now, there's one, two, three, four. 03:30.016 --> 03:35.158 [SPEAKER_01]: There are four manuscripts in my inbox that have offers on them offers of rep from other agents 03:36.007 --> 04:02.570 [SPEAKER_01]: So I've been prioritizing going through that, there is one, two, three, four, five, six, seven things that are kind of on my Kindle that I need to get to and then in my two read column, you know, I have, I probably have 30 requests that I need to get to starting from April, so if you have something with me from April, I'm still looking at those between April and June and yeah, so it's just a constant right and then I have all the client manuscripts. 04:02.910 --> 04:05.531 [SPEAKER_01]: So let me see what I had for client manuscripts. 04:05.571 --> 04:06.592 [SPEAKER_01]: I had a lot. 04:07.612 --> 04:09.153 [SPEAKER_01]: I had a lot of stuff to read. 04:09.173 --> 04:21.858 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so in terms of client reading over the last let's say month I read 19 drafts of something some of its proposals a lot of that's made a description of it 19 drafts. 04:22.818 --> 04:24.439 [SPEAKER_01]: That is a lot of drafts in a month. 04:24.659 --> 04:29.683 [SPEAKER_01]: So, again, some of this is parts of a made you script, but a lot of that is reading full made you scripts. 04:29.843 --> 04:35.046 [SPEAKER_01]: So, I read upwards to, you know, 20, 25 projects a month. 04:35.086 --> 04:38.308 [SPEAKER_01]: If you factor in everything between the clients and the submission. 04:38.328 --> 04:45.273 [SPEAKER_01]: So, it's a lot, you know, when it really varies and I do try to honor the seasons that are busier and lean into them, honor the seasons that are, 04:45.633 --> 04:51.980 [SPEAKER_01]: a bit quieter and appreciate that of going on vacation, which is, you know, why CC's doing the next solo episode. 04:52.540 --> 05:01.509 [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm looking forward to reading some stuff for fun, but there isn't really a balance, let's just say, it's more just as I said, leaning into the seasons as they come. 05:02.130 --> 05:03.932 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, the next question somebody asked was, 05:07.050 --> 05:12.953 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think this depends on the agent, again, because I don't work on a lot of literary fiction. 05:13.293 --> 05:20.037 [SPEAKER_01]: And so I'm not kind of combing through things looking for literary writers who are published in them. 05:20.738 --> 05:22.098 [SPEAKER_01]: Earlier in my career, I did. 05:22.118 --> 05:23.439 [SPEAKER_01]: I would spend some time doing that. 05:23.499 --> 05:25.640 [SPEAKER_01]: I would look who is publishing the different pieces. 05:25.780 --> 05:28.762 [SPEAKER_01]: I'd go try to find the one socials or go find them on their website. 05:29.476 --> 05:31.478 [SPEAKER_01]: kind of track them down a little bit and keep an eye on them. 05:31.718 --> 05:33.460 [SPEAKER_01]: I just I don't do that anymore. 05:33.560 --> 05:38.304 [SPEAKER_01]: More of what I'm doing is like long form things on sub-stack or longer articles. 05:38.824 --> 05:44.009 [SPEAKER_01]: For example, there was an author who I reached out to when they had a long form piece in the walrus, which is a magazine. 05:44.456 --> 05:50.502 [SPEAKER_01]: reach out to them because I love their piece, reach out to them on DMs, and then they were my client and we were working together for years. 05:50.542 --> 05:55.146 [SPEAKER_01]: So for me, it's not so much literary journals, so much as it is more long for our pieces. 05:55.206 --> 05:59.810 [SPEAKER_01]: Because a lot of literary journals are more, you know, shorter pieces, not long pieces. 05:59.870 --> 06:07.858 [SPEAKER_01]: So it really, again, it depends on the agent of what they're looking for specifically, but for me, I'm looking more of a journalistic lens than like a literary journal lens. 06:08.118 --> 06:25.687 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, the last question I'm going to answer is how to manage anxiety of going on sub as a new author, you know, there's a lot of layers to this obviously I'm going to assume they meant sub as in sub to editors, not subs to agents because normally you would call that querying so I'm going to assume they mean. 06:26.298 --> 06:27.639 [SPEAKER_01]: on sub is in to editors. 06:27.839 --> 06:31.703 [SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, there's not really that many ways to do it that you haven't heard of. 06:31.843 --> 06:36.447 [SPEAKER_01]: The most important thing to do is to keep writing, work on your next project. 06:36.787 --> 06:47.696 [SPEAKER_01]: That's obviously crucial because if there's anything that can kind of get you in the zone, get you in your flow state, make sure you're not rushing things when you're under contract is just kind of getting a head start on the next project. 06:48.156 --> 06:48.957 [SPEAKER_01]: Super important. 06:49.219 --> 06:56.230 [SPEAKER_01]: The anxiety piece, you know, I'm answering that to kind of hope that that will quiet your anxiety, the anxiety piece is quite layered, right? 06:56.250 --> 07:02.820 [SPEAKER_01]: The anxiety of the waiting, the anxiety of what if I don't get the answer that I want, the anxiety of just being anxious. 07:03.397 --> 07:04.517 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, they are known. 07:04.937 --> 07:06.718 [SPEAKER_01]: All of that is really trying. 07:06.798 --> 07:13.739 [SPEAKER_01]: So having conversations with your agent about expectations in terms of communication, how often do you want them to check in? 07:13.759 --> 07:15.079 [SPEAKER_01]: And how often do you want to check in? 07:15.599 --> 07:18.140 [SPEAKER_01]: Some clients want to hear every single bit of news. 07:18.280 --> 07:20.840 [SPEAKER_01]: Some of them want to just wait until it's good news. 07:21.500 --> 07:25.201 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, it really just depends on, as I said, on that situation. 07:25.401 --> 07:29.121 [SPEAKER_01]: If you are feeling extremely anxious, I definitely recommend talking to a mental health 07:32.502 --> 07:42.930 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're anxious at this omission stage, there's a good chance you're going to be anxious through a lot of the other stages of the publishing career as well, so definitely recommend reaching out to a professional for that. 07:43.551 --> 07:51.957 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so those are the three questions that I wanted to tackle for you guys, as we kicked off the solo episode, and now we're going to launch into the excerpt from my course. 07:52.338 --> 07:54.920 [SPEAKER_01]: But before we do that, we're going to hear a word from our sponsors. 07:57.089 --> 07:58.831 [SPEAKER_00]: all right everybody and we are back. 07:58.931 --> 08:02.534 [SPEAKER_01]: So we are going to cover the topic of trends. 08:02.574 --> 08:07.999 [SPEAKER_01]: So in my others publishing playbook course, this is in module two and this is video three. 08:08.039 --> 08:19.710 [SPEAKER_01]: So module two means we've already made it through the like how publishing works, you know, the bread and butter of the actual business, module one covers everything from what does everybody do in their publishing jobs, 08:21.960 --> 08:27.723 [SPEAKER_01]: the functionality of the actual industry works and it gives you a introduction to the business of publishing. 08:28.203 --> 08:36.606 [SPEAKER_01]: Module 2, we're kind of adding our layer on to that to prepare for submission and make sure that you are well placed within your understanding of the business. 08:36.646 --> 08:38.607 [SPEAKER_01]: So this is module 2. 08:38.707 --> 08:44.330 [SPEAKER_01]: It's trends why you do and don't need them because this is the question that I get asked all the time. 08:44.710 --> 08:49.932 [SPEAKER_01]: It tends to dominate my inbox or Q&A sessions and any sort of writers conference I've 08:51.673 --> 08:52.493 [SPEAKER_01]: What's selling right now? 08:52.933 --> 09:00.275 [SPEAKER_01]: And what they want is the magic formula, but as a literary agent, my job is to sit at the intersection of taste, culture, and economics. 09:00.835 --> 09:06.877 [SPEAKER_01]: And so my job is to tell you that chasing trends is a trap, but understanding them is a superpower. 09:06.957 --> 09:12.558 [SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to break down what a trend actually means, the four types of publishing trends that you need to know. 09:13.062 --> 09:17.363 [SPEAKER_01]: the five stages of a trans life cycle and how to stay in your own lane. 09:17.563 --> 09:20.564 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so what are we actually talking about when we talk about trends? 09:20.664 --> 09:25.745 [SPEAKER_01]: At the most basic level, a trend is just a general direction in which something is developing or changing. 09:26.185 --> 09:30.206 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a pattern or shifted attitudes, behaviors, or consumer preferences. 09:30.646 --> 09:33.526 [SPEAKER_01]: But in publishing, trending can mean two very different things. 09:33.706 --> 09:41.308 [SPEAKER_01]: On one hand, it can signal a massive macro shift in culture, like a book or an intellectual property, generating huge cross market exposure, 09:41.748 --> 09:49.734 [SPEAKER_01]: leading to major film or TV adaptations on the other hand, a trend can last exactly one week can be a total flash in the pan on TikTok or Instagram. 09:49.894 --> 09:55.018 [SPEAKER_01]: To make sense of this, we have to look at the four publishing trends that influence our multi-billion dollar industry. 09:55.098 --> 09:57.160 [SPEAKER_01]: So we have number one market trends. 09:57.660 --> 09:59.722 [SPEAKER_01]: This is the pure economics in the business side. 09:59.802 --> 10:01.043 [SPEAKER_01]: This is the flow of money. 10:01.103 --> 10:03.625 [SPEAKER_01]: This is what is influencing overall retail. 10:03.885 --> 10:04.185 [SPEAKER_01]: sales. 10:04.265 --> 10:14.171 [SPEAKER_01]: This is what I report on when I'm doing shooting the shit, trying to let you guys know how are the different formats doing, what you guys pay attention to, and kind of let you know the things that I'm paying attention to. 10:14.232 --> 10:15.312 [SPEAKER_01]: Those are the market trends. 10:15.853 --> 10:17.794 [SPEAKER_01]: Number two is the pop culture trends. 10:18.314 --> 10:24.438 [SPEAKER_01]: This is how general culture, TV, film, music podcasts are influences, public taste, and bleeds into. 10:24.598 --> 10:25.259 [SPEAKER_01]: the book business. 10:25.339 --> 10:33.004 [SPEAKER_01]: So we're all familiar with this when we're comping to things that are not books, we're comping to, again, the TV shows, music podcasts, art, all of that sort of stuff. 10:33.044 --> 10:33.225 [SPEAKER_01]: Right? 10:33.305 --> 10:36.227 [SPEAKER_01]: The pop culture trends that come across our business. 10:37.108 --> 10:38.689 [SPEAKER_01]: Third trend is technology trend. 10:38.709 --> 10:53.220 [SPEAKER_01]: So this is sales channels, formats, the rise of digital audio books, e-books, emerging tech like AI, online sales data, all of that technological innovation that shifts the business in different ways that we have to pay attention to. 10:54.109 --> 10:56.771 [SPEAKER_01]: The fourth one is the social behavioral trends. 10:56.931 --> 11:04.255 [SPEAKER_01]: So these are the things that are changes in lifestyle choices, values and preferences that people are actively living out and sharing on social media. 11:04.595 --> 11:15.602 [SPEAKER_01]: These are the kind of the subtle things, the micro trends that we really have to pay attention to because these are the things when your book is coming out, you can really lean into and leverage when you're trying to tie your book into the modern side. 11:16.499 --> 11:19.301 [SPEAKER_01]: So those are the four publishing trends that we pay attention to. 11:19.602 --> 11:24.106 [SPEAKER_01]: Market trends, pop culture trends, technology trends, social behavioral trends. 11:24.466 --> 11:28.730 [SPEAKER_01]: And so when anybody asks me, like, what is trending? 11:28.930 --> 11:29.630 [SPEAKER_01]: What's on trend? 11:29.690 --> 11:33.594 [SPEAKER_01]: I always have to center the conversation around, what are you trying to ask me? 11:33.674 --> 11:35.415 [SPEAKER_01]: Are you asking me the market trends? 11:35.475 --> 11:37.297 [SPEAKER_01]: Are you asking me pop culture trends? 11:37.697 --> 11:39.639 [SPEAKER_01]: Technology trends are social behavior trends. 11:40.265 --> 11:54.616 [SPEAKER_01]: Because I think what a lot of people are trying to get at is how can they be trending or how can they swim in this same direction as the zeitgeist, but where you really need to know is which of these four things I'm actually asking about when I'm asking somebody what is a trend. 11:55.477 --> 12:02.863 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so now let's talk about the life cycle of a trend to understand trends without driving you crazy, you actually have to understand how trend lives and dies. 12:03.387 --> 12:09.711 [SPEAKER_01]: So I like to look at this through the lens of the classic bell curve that's called the diffusion of innovation framework. 12:09.931 --> 12:12.333 [SPEAKER_01]: This is by Everett Rogers, and it's kind of a bell curve. 12:12.353 --> 12:13.033 [SPEAKER_01]: You can picture it. 12:13.614 --> 12:18.117 [SPEAKER_01]: Every single trend that you see in the book world goes through five distinct stages. 12:18.137 --> 12:19.478 [SPEAKER_01]: And this is common for lots of things. 12:19.558 --> 12:24.761 [SPEAKER_01]: Once I say these things to you, you're gonna completely understand what I'm talking about, but there is a framework to understand it. 12:24.801 --> 12:28.324 [SPEAKER_01]: So we're gonna go through, we have the introduction. 12:29.402 --> 12:34.083 [SPEAKER_01]: the rise, the peak, the decline, and then obsolescence. 12:34.563 --> 12:41.125 [SPEAKER_01]: So let's break this down and then we're gonna kind of get into what this means specifically as we layer it over a part of publishing itself. 12:41.325 --> 12:43.465 [SPEAKER_01]: The introduction, this is one of trend as born, right? 12:43.725 --> 12:50.367 [SPEAKER_01]: Innovator starter experimenting with a completely fresh idea, a new trope, a aesthetic within a really specific some culture. 12:50.387 --> 12:52.728 [SPEAKER_01]: They can be quiet, most people aren't paying attention yet. 12:53.148 --> 12:54.068 [SPEAKER_01]: Number two, the rise. 12:54.088 --> 12:58.689 [SPEAKER_01]: This is where the earlier doctors pick it up, the key influencers pick it up, it starts to build momentum, 12:59.068 --> 13:04.315 [SPEAKER_01]: People talk about it online, games real, visibility, and the community stage three is the peak. 13:04.475 --> 13:06.878 [SPEAKER_01]: So this is, think, maximum saturation. 13:07.139 --> 13:09.462 [SPEAKER_01]: The early majority has completely adopted the trend. 13:09.502 --> 13:10.043 [SPEAKER_01]: It's everywhere. 13:10.083 --> 13:11.064 [SPEAKER_01]: It's mass market. 13:11.424 --> 13:12.025 [SPEAKER_01]: Too big goodness. 13:12.045 --> 13:14.148 [SPEAKER_01]: It feels like every publisher is trying to acquire it. 13:14.368 --> 13:28.693 [SPEAKER_01]: Then we have stage four, the decline, the late majority hops on the bandwagon, but because they're jumping on as the trend is losing its fresh exclusive appeal, the market is already starting to fatigue and then stage five we have ups and lessons. 13:28.813 --> 13:28.993 [SPEAKER_01]: So 13:29.593 --> 13:38.417 [SPEAKER_01]: the people who are kind of hanging on or hanging on, but at this point it's kind of considered dated and the cultures moved on past and onto the next introduction phase of a new trend. 13:38.517 --> 13:49.463 [SPEAKER_01]: So I wanted to layer this over the romance trend and it's kind of also the escapism trend, but the escapism and romance go hand in hand. 13:49.663 --> 13:54.765 [SPEAKER_01]: As you'll see, as we talk about why the romance trend really took off in 2021. 13:54.925 --> 13:57.066 [SPEAKER_01]: So number one was our early adopters, right? 13:57.086 --> 13:58.287 [SPEAKER_01]: This is when the trend is 13:59.027 --> 14:00.049 [SPEAKER_01]: It's very quiet. 14:00.069 --> 14:01.230 [SPEAKER_01]: People aren't paying attention yet. 14:01.471 --> 14:08.400 [SPEAKER_01]: This is think of the spicy romance trend starting to build in 2021 through book talk in the pandemic. 14:08.680 --> 14:16.111 [SPEAKER_01]: The man starts to build for this when we are in lockdown, when physical intimacy is not encouraged. 14:17.532 --> 14:29.161 [SPEAKER_01]: mixing with other social groups is not encouraged and so the spicy romance that you can read inside a book and feel that intimacy through the pages is what starts to blow up in 2021. 14:29.301 --> 14:30.602 [SPEAKER_01]: So this is the early adopters. 14:30.622 --> 14:37.047 [SPEAKER_01]: People just starting to venture into this to just feel something and it feels very natural to what is happening in the world. 14:37.988 --> 14:39.849 [SPEAKER_01]: Number two is the rise of a trend, right? 14:39.889 --> 14:40.350 [SPEAKER_01]: So we are 14:41.090 --> 14:42.031 [SPEAKER_01]: gaining visibility. 14:42.311 --> 14:44.832 [SPEAKER_01]: We are blowing up on social media. 14:45.453 --> 14:54.998 [SPEAKER_01]: The moment it becomes cool, publishing starts funding the growth and trying to meet the demand and then the marketing money starts to flow to make sure that they are meeting the demand. 14:55.458 --> 14:57.980 [SPEAKER_01]: And that is the rise of the trend that we saw. 14:58.100 --> 15:01.222 [SPEAKER_01]: Because publishers were publishing romance for a really long time, but this is when they thought, 15:02.290 --> 15:12.565 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, how can we make sure that we're printing more copies, you know, making sure that we're delivering on all the needs of this genre and all the sub genres within the genre to make sure that they are. 15:13.464 --> 15:17.988 [SPEAKER_01]: capitalizing essentially on what's happening because they have all this great romance content. 15:18.809 --> 15:20.731 [SPEAKER_01]: Number three is peak, right? 15:20.751 --> 15:22.352 [SPEAKER_01]: So it's no longer a subculture. 15:22.832 --> 15:26.596 [SPEAKER_01]: We start to see things like romance bookstores popping up all over the place. 15:26.936 --> 15:28.077 [SPEAKER_01]: Nothing is taboo anymore. 15:28.097 --> 15:34.142 [SPEAKER_01]: This is something I find really interesting because a rotica has a book concept has been around for a very long time. 15:34.223 --> 15:37.806 [SPEAKER_01]: They used to be kind of just tucked at the back of the store at the very back of the romance. 15:38.326 --> 15:38.686 [SPEAKER_01]: section. 15:38.947 --> 15:41.308 [SPEAKER_01]: And now, everything's kind of pulled to the front. 15:41.328 --> 15:48.974 [SPEAKER_01]: We know that the book covers are not kind of hiding anything necessarily, but they're like very playful, very front center in the bookstores. 15:49.314 --> 15:52.477 [SPEAKER_01]: And this is when we start to see ranging out into subcultures. 15:52.537 --> 15:54.278 [SPEAKER_01]: This is when we start to see romanticy. 15:54.638 --> 16:01.364 [SPEAKER_01]: We start seeing people kind of challenging the norm, and they want to start to pivot to something kind of quote unquote cool again. 16:01.444 --> 16:04.126 [SPEAKER_01]: So we're starting to build off into the different subcultures 16:05.020 --> 16:13.562 [SPEAKER_01]: romance so that those early adopters still feel like they are discovering something new, and we're still kind of introducing new versions of the trend again. 16:13.742 --> 16:30.225 [SPEAKER_01]: At this point, we might lose some of the early adopters who are pivoting, they could be pivoting to things like the Omegaverse if they're trying to go really far into romance, or they could just have moved on from that era of their lives, especially as the restrictions of the pandemic start to lift and 16:33.286 --> 16:43.074 [SPEAKER_01]: What's always interesting about the peak phase is when the market tires of something versus when publishing industry tires of something and these are different things. 16:43.234 --> 16:50.980 [SPEAKER_01]: And so they're early adopters also some of them might be might be tiring, but as it starts to become mass market. 16:58.307 --> 17:05.530 [SPEAKER_01]: what happens is the sale staff of the publishers, they go to the booksellers and the booksellers were like, hey, we're selling tons of this, you know, keep it coming. 17:05.930 --> 17:12.332 [SPEAKER_01]: And so the publishers by more producing more also trying to, you know, make it feel special. 17:12.813 --> 17:15.174 [SPEAKER_01]: We see different special editions. 17:15.234 --> 17:16.254 [SPEAKER_01]: We see box sets. 17:16.334 --> 17:17.554 [SPEAKER_01]: We see sprayed edges. 17:17.715 --> 17:23.917 [SPEAKER_01]: Any way that we can kind of hold on to that peak feeling as an industry is really important at that stage. 17:24.097 --> 17:30.821 [SPEAKER_01]: Then, you know, some people would say we're at peak, some people might say we're at decline, but the stage four is, remember, it's decline. 17:30.901 --> 17:38.365 [SPEAKER_01]: So hooks, not feeling as original potentially, you know, feeling like we've read this before, things not feeling exclusive. 17:38.905 --> 17:43.748 [SPEAKER_01]: When everybody's doing spray judges to show some sparkle, what does spray judges mean anymore? 17:44.188 --> 17:44.889 [SPEAKER_01]: That type of thing. 17:44.929 --> 17:46.970 [SPEAKER_01]: That is when decline can happen. 17:47.250 --> 17:51.693 [SPEAKER_01]: And that is when it is harder for a debut author to break into a trend. 17:52.442 --> 18:04.466 [SPEAKER_01]: when we are past the peak, because as I said, remember when the fire hose is on in terms of, you know, there's no fatigue from retailers, therefore there's no fatigue from the sales staff and everything's kind of full tilt ahead. 18:04.946 --> 18:10.268 [SPEAKER_01]: A lot of debuts can break into the market into the category, then there and be kind of trusted authors. 18:10.308 --> 18:19.851 [SPEAKER_01]: But once we've kind of hit the textbook definition of decline, hooks not feeling original, feeling like we've read this before, things not feeling exclusive anymore, 18:20.372 --> 18:21.833 [SPEAKER_01]: that is when it's harder to break in. 18:22.113 --> 18:32.338 [SPEAKER_01]: Because, and we saw this with the domestic suspense, trend that happened maybe about 10 years ago was when, like, you just felt like, how can anybody do another twist that we haven't heard before? 18:32.358 --> 18:37.400 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're gonna do a twist on a twist on a twist and things just, you know, sort of becoming a parody of themselves. 18:37.940 --> 18:41.362 [SPEAKER_01]: I believe there was a Netflix parody about the domestic suspense trend, right? 18:42.122 --> 18:44.624 [SPEAKER_01]: You can see from that example, when decline starts to happen. 18:45.064 --> 18:46.345 [SPEAKER_01]: And then there's obsolescence. 18:46.485 --> 18:58.253 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, the end of a trend, outsiders finally seeing what's happening, maybe people are buying things secondhand, borrowing up from the library, people who are at the end of the cycle, maybe still don't know about it, but they're like finally reading the book that everybody's talking about. 18:58.594 --> 19:06.299 [SPEAKER_01]: And it becomes kind of officially outdated from publishing standards, meaning impossible for debuts to break in. 19:06.319 --> 19:07.400 [SPEAKER_01]: I shouldn't say it impossible. 19:07.540 --> 19:09.181 [SPEAKER_01]: Very hard for debuts to break in. 19:09.641 --> 19:20.927 [SPEAKER_01]: There will be established authors that will kind of maintain a baseline of that category, but it's not something that a lot of energy will be put into signing debuts in that category. 19:20.967 --> 19:22.588 [SPEAKER_01]: So I don't believe we're there for romance. 19:22.628 --> 19:24.929 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm kind of using the domestic suspense example there now. 19:25.329 --> 19:26.550 [SPEAKER_01]: Just you can see what that looks like. 19:26.590 --> 19:29.992 [SPEAKER_01]: So those are our five stages of the life cycle of a trend. 19:30.112 --> 19:34.174 [SPEAKER_01]: That is our classic bell curve, the diffusion of innovation framework, early 19:38.347 --> 19:43.592 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's bring this back to authors and the trend loop trap and white trends fail writers. 19:43.992 --> 19:52.459 [SPEAKER_01]: You could probably see, you know, as I was kind of going through that framework, when exactly a trend could trap writers, where the opportunities are and where they are not. 19:52.939 --> 19:56.903 [SPEAKER_01]: The reason I want you to understand that is because writers get completely caught in this loop. 19:57.083 --> 20:02.868 [SPEAKER_01]: They kind of goes like this, writer gets a great idea, they go online, they walk into a bookstore, they check out the current trends, 20:03.028 --> 20:06.829 [SPEAKER_01]: But the stage that you are seeing it in bookstore is peak, right? 20:06.889 --> 20:13.470 [SPEAKER_01]: Or even sometimes past peak, depending on, you know, how much you know about the book and it's how much time you spend in bookstore is in online. 20:13.510 --> 20:15.430 [SPEAKER_01]: Then you start to wonder, is something trendy enough? 20:15.470 --> 20:18.771 [SPEAKER_01]: You panic, you get to more or lie as some people scrap the idea entirely. 20:18.791 --> 20:20.111 [SPEAKER_01]: And then they kind of want to start again. 20:20.131 --> 20:21.251 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, what's the next trend? 20:21.271 --> 20:24.652 [SPEAKER_01]: And then again, you're always behind the trend if you're always going looking for the trend. 20:25.072 --> 20:29.573 [SPEAKER_01]: Unless you're professional trend for a caster, you will have no idea about where the book business trends are going. 20:29.993 --> 20:33.958 [SPEAKER_01]: agents and editors we spend our entire careers digging into this skill and dialing into it. 20:34.298 --> 20:35.860 [SPEAKER_01]: We don't expect writers to do it. 20:36.401 --> 20:43.029 [SPEAKER_01]: Contemporary business trends and predictions, they're working kind of six to 12 months in advance, as you know, it takes a long time to write a book. 20:43.650 --> 20:48.331 [SPEAKER_01]: edit a book, produce a book, sell it into the stores, you know, all of that takes a really long time. 20:48.791 --> 20:53.572 [SPEAKER_01]: By the time a book comes out, the trend that's had its peak today could be, you know, really could be into client later. 20:53.592 --> 20:56.153 [SPEAKER_01]: So you don't ever, that's why you don't want to write to the trend. 20:56.353 --> 21:01.694 [SPEAKER_01]: And why it can be hard to break into something that is peak because of that framework. 21:01.855 --> 21:07.416 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, one of the quotes that I always come back to because a lot of people are always, they're going to hear this and they're going to think, 21:09.016 --> 21:17.543 [SPEAKER_01]: If it's so hard to break into something, then why would I write in that category, or, you know, if every trend is, or if every genre is always going to peak at some point, what are we doing here. 21:18.304 --> 21:23.528 [SPEAKER_01]: But really the answer to me is always the Ava do for a quote, when you're in your lane, there is no traffic. 21:24.329 --> 21:30.534 [SPEAKER_01]: And if you are the best in your category, then you are going to stand out and I always believe that there's going to be a way. 21:30.930 --> 21:36.593 [SPEAKER_01]: It is going to be more challenging when categories are in decline to kind of enter the market at that time. 21:36.673 --> 21:41.815 [SPEAKER_01]: But your goal, if you're listening to the show, is always going to be, you want to be the best of the best. 21:41.915 --> 21:42.115 [SPEAKER_01]: Right? 21:42.135 --> 21:43.596 [SPEAKER_01]: That's the reason we're in this. 21:43.636 --> 21:45.637 [SPEAKER_01]: We're not in this for mediocrity. 21:45.737 --> 21:48.699 [SPEAKER_01]: I know all of you really want to do really well in the book business. 21:48.759 --> 21:50.219 [SPEAKER_01]: That's why you're dialed into this show. 21:50.400 --> 21:50.600 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay. 21:50.840 --> 21:54.542 [SPEAKER_01]: So let's kind of talk about the do's and don'ts of why we need trends. 21:56.300 --> 22:00.783 [SPEAKER_01]: You do not need trends if they're distracting you from creating the art that you actually want to make. 22:01.424 --> 22:06.267 [SPEAKER_01]: You don't need trends if they are keeping you glued to the shifting social media algorithms. 22:06.728 --> 22:14.293 [SPEAKER_01]: You don't need trends if you're paying attention to industry level economic shifts that agents of publishers need to worry about and not you. 22:14.553 --> 22:16.115 [SPEAKER_01]: Your to have is to be the writer. 22:16.515 --> 22:19.237 [SPEAKER_01]: But here's why you do need to understand trends to a certain extent. 22:20.037 --> 22:25.598 [SPEAKER_01]: As a storyteller, you need to understand the genre expectations so that your book can actually generate unit sales. 22:25.958 --> 22:29.659 [SPEAKER_01]: We want you to be aware of maybe format shifts or how audiobooks are performing. 22:29.939 --> 22:33.579 [SPEAKER_01]: That's why I give you guys these updates on our show, so you know what's going on. 22:34.039 --> 22:37.140 [SPEAKER_01]: And we do want you to pay attention to some social and cultural trends, right? 22:37.200 --> 22:48.062 [SPEAKER_01]: Because it allows you to weave modern fresh issues into your storytelling and a way that feels really relevant, maybe feels right from the headlines and feels urgent and of the moment it feels right for modern publishing. 22:48.262 --> 22:50.404 [SPEAKER_01]: There's also a massive marketing advantage here, right? 22:50.424 --> 22:59.491 [SPEAKER_01]: If you already have a book out or you finish the manuscript, something starts to trend in a certain cultural conversation, then you can align your PR and marketing campaigns with it to some more copies, right? 22:59.511 --> 23:01.272 [SPEAKER_01]: It's really just about paying attention. 23:01.993 --> 23:10.539 [SPEAKER_01]: Dumping on a bandwagon when the stars align is how things become a quote unquote overnight success because we know and publishing nothing is can possibly be an overnight success. 23:10.619 --> 23:11.400 [SPEAKER_01]: It's just not possible. 23:11.840 --> 23:16.404 [SPEAKER_01]: We can't predict these moments, but we can be savvy enough to react to them with thoughtful and creative marketing. 23:18.975 --> 23:30.320 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, so I'm going to wrap things up for today and I'll leave you with a quick kind of frequently asked question just to close off our trend conversation because people say, that's all well and good, but I still need you to tell me what's trending. 23:30.600 --> 23:36.122 [SPEAKER_01]: I can give this presentation and somebody will still say, but I really, I bet actually tell me what's trending. 23:36.362 --> 23:37.303 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, here's the good news. 23:37.403 --> 23:43.665 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're actually consuming media, watching the news, looking at our HTML social media, reading books, going into stores, you're fine. 23:43.825 --> 23:45.666 [SPEAKER_01]: You already know what is trending in our culture. 23:46.318 --> 23:52.600 [SPEAKER_01]: bad news is I'm never going to tell you that a specific hyper niche genre is trending because tomorrow I might not be and that's not fair to you. 23:53.401 --> 24:03.845 [SPEAKER_01]: When I look at sales data and I talk to editors and looking for patterns, I'm not looking for fashion that pants genres, I'm paying attention to culture, but I don't need you guys to become a publishing trend for a castor. 24:03.965 --> 24:05.085 [SPEAKER_01]: You listen to our show. 24:05.285 --> 24:11.408 [SPEAKER_01]: If you want my job, you come do my job, but if you want to be a writer, you can just tune into the show and I'll give you everything you need to know. 24:11.508 --> 24:11.608 [SPEAKER_01]: So, 24:11.968 --> 24:15.091 [SPEAKER_01]: keep writing on your own terms, stay in your lane, focus on your craft. 24:15.331 --> 24:16.112 [SPEAKER_01]: And that is it. 24:16.612 --> 24:18.774 [SPEAKER_01]: This is the playbook insight. 24:19.255 --> 24:21.237 [SPEAKER_01]: And I will see you guys for our next episode. 24:21.998 --> 24:31.446 [SPEAKER_01]: If you would like more of that came from, of course, you could use the pod 15 discount code at checkout so that you can get my entire course over at CarlyWaters.com slash course. 24:31.667 --> 24:33.789 [SPEAKER_01]: That's POD15 for 15% off. 24:35.290 --> 24:51.985 [SPEAKER_01]: The course is really built for those of you that don't want to spend time combing the entire internet for writing and publishing advice if you want everything from what expert that is me in one place there are videos, worksheets, transcripts, 6 modules across the entire publishing industry, 10 hours of content. 24:52.545 --> 24:56.546 [SPEAKER_01]: really all of my teachings from the last 15 years and one place just for you guys. 24:56.586 --> 25:00.707 [SPEAKER_01]: So if you're looking for your discount code, it's pod 15 POD15. 25:00.727 --> 25:06.508 [SPEAKER_01]: I check out CarlyWaters.com slash course and that's 15% off and I would love to see you guys in there. 25:06.888 --> 25:11.630 [SPEAKER_01]: Let me know what you thought at the solo episode and I will see you guys when I'm back from vacation. 25:17.795 --> 25:25.505 [SPEAKER_00]: If you'd like to query CC, please refer to the Submission Guidelines at www.wshermon.com. 25:26.166 --> 25:30.331 [SPEAKER_00]: Carly Waters is a literary agent at PS Literary Agency. 25:30.748 --> 25:48.061 [SPEAKER_00]: But a work on this podcast is not affiliated with the agency and the views expressed by Colleon this podcast are solely that of her as a podcast co-host and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, policies, or position of PS literary agency.