[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_02]: What's up, everyone?
[SPEAKER_02]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed Podcast brought to you by Rotobar.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is episode 457.
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_02]: And joining me is my co-host, Mr. Toby Shaman.
[SPEAKER_02]: Toby, how's it going, man?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going great.
[SPEAKER_00]: Whether up here in Syracuse hasn't been too great they'll ask a couple of days, but it's been a lot of fun baseball recently and we're heading towards the all-star game here pretty soon.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I've been good, Eric.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I was a weatherman pretty crazy.
[SPEAKER_02]: I caught cold like what's going on up there.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been up and down.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's been rainy.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been hot, cold.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of been like typical Syracuse weather here.
[SPEAKER_00]: It just feels like we got our spring a little bit late and then we'll get like a huge summer maybe and like the July and August months of the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Then I'm just right back to winter in September.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, we even pretty, he up and down here in Maine.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, we'll get a few days of rain and then it'll be like super, like not like we haven't had any super hot days, but it's just been like pretty warm and really sunny.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just that back and forth of rain sun, rain sun, like my lawn is growing like no one's business.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like my lawn mower's already getting a workout this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's not even the end of June yet.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's just been like perfect combination of sun and rain.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're just like it's already sprouting up right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I just mode it like last weekend.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it feels like I got to mode again this weekend.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been crazy.
[SPEAKER_02]: But it's, uh,
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, luckily we got a lot of fun baseball to talk about, already at the halfway mark of the season, a lot of teams are at that 81 game mark, or even 82, 83 games.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, half the season is behind us, but a lot of fun players kind of breaking out this month.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been a pretty fun month of baseball here in June, and we're going to talk about a lot of these names in this episode.
[SPEAKER_02]: But before we do the usual housekeeping,
[SPEAKER_02]: If you enjoyed the show, please rate and review on which of our platform you listen on.
[SPEAKER_02]: You can follow us on Twitter.
[SPEAKER_02]: Toby is at T. Shoman Report, SCHUL M-A-N.
[SPEAKER_02]: I am an Eric Cross MLB and the show is at Toolshed Pod.
[SPEAKER_02]: Check out Toby's work on his sub-stack and you can find all of my content on my Patreon and over on Rotobar as well and speaking on Rotobar, you can still get 50% off your premium subscription using the Toolshed that check out there's a lot of great content and tools
[SPEAKER_02]: You got a lot of my contents on there, Nick Mariano, his content, the projection systems, all these tools to help you with your lineups and for agents, picks, stuff like that, a lot of great stuff on Rotobar Premium.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I highly recommend grabbing that along with the Rotobar app on your phone, which you can find at Rotobar.com slash app.
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, let's hop into it here.
[SPEAKER_02]: We'd go with the hitters first.
[SPEAKER_02]: We got like six or seven hitters, six or seven pitches here.
[SPEAKER_02]: So what I could do is in names or so overall, starting with Jack Kaglion, who has been absolutely beasting lately.
[SPEAKER_02]: In this month of June, he's already up to nine homeruns in 94 plate appearances.
[SPEAKER_02]: Slashing 337, 415, 699, that's not 1114 OPS, you know, not too bad there.
[SPEAKER_02]: This coming after pretty lackluster April and May, and only at 5 on runs total.
[SPEAKER_02]: The average was kind of chilling and like the 240 range.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, metrics under the hood were good during that time, so we were kind of all waiting for this to happen to be.
[SPEAKER_02]: But we're finally getting.
[SPEAKER_02]: the cagly on that we've all been kind of waiting for.
[SPEAKER_02]: We knew the power was here.
[SPEAKER_02]: Everyone has watched him whether it be in Florida, back in college, during the minor leagues, or even so far with the Royals, no the powers there.
[SPEAKER_02]: But now it's finally showing through in games consistently.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so do you think this version of cagly on that we're seeing now?
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you think this is the guy that we should expect moving forward?
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving forward, I mean, there's with a hitter with
[SPEAKER_00]: I think these are the peaks that you can expect to see when he is on.
[SPEAKER_00]: He hits the ball way too hard for me to say anything otherwise, but he does have that struggle with the with and chase and everything and he is very young too.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's settling in really nicely to the MLB level and against the highest level of pitching.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I really do expect this to continue.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you said, early on when he was struggling still, you pop the hood and the metric still looked pretty good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw you post it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if it was yesterday or a couple days ago that Savannah paid to have a lot of red on it and
[SPEAKER_00]: believe he's still 23, that's just a pretty special thing to have as a major league hitter when you're that young.
[SPEAKER_00]: Not a lot of guys in the league really have that, so I do expect this to continue moving forward and especially the fact that he is not invaluable in the field either.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to continue to put himself in the line up even if he's struggling just because he provides so much with that arm strength out there in the outfield.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, he's hit all pitch types pretty well too.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that this trend will continue, will there be peaks in values?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, but these are the peaks.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it makes up for what the values will be.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, I was that arm coming from his pitching days, you know, back at Florida, and yeah, he is a hundredth percentile arm strength, 98.3.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's pretty damn good.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll field arm there and kind of just everything, everything to do is strength.
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, arm strength, you know, that speed just pierced rank and hitting the ball.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he just really excels at, and they image like the quality of contact is super late.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, 59% hard hit right, 94 mile an hour average EV, 17% barrel right.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, these are these are top of the scale quality of contact metrics here.
[SPEAKER_02]: And at the same time, well, those still has those issues with, you know, with Chase and with the whipping too much.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not in the area where I am, you know, super concerned about it.
[SPEAKER_02]: In the chase rates come down by 4%, it's still high, but at least it's down from last year, zone contact 81% overall contact rate around 70%.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think both of those are tick below average, but, you know, I've said it before, you know, when you have the quality of contact that CAX has, I think those rates are fine.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think you can really get away with having, you know, slightly below average contact rates if you're just pounding the ball,
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's great to see.
[SPEAKER_02]: And also, you know, I think the biggest thing here kind of similar to, you know, Jordan Walker is just getting the ball in the air more.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, last year, get an air rate of just 49.4% this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's up to 59% pull air rate from 15.8 up to 19.1.
[SPEAKER_02]: So,
[SPEAKER_02]: That's huge, and obviously the ballpark isn't the greatest for power, but you look at his bright chart.
[SPEAKER_02]: He ain't just scraping by the wall, and he's hitting absolute tanks, and he's got that power that transcends all ball parks.
[SPEAKER_02]: Unfortunately, to worry about that anyway, but just getting the ball in the air, I think it for him, is huge.
[SPEAKER_02]: And even if he's more like a 250, 260 guy, I think we're looking at true annual 30 plus home reggae, maybe even 40 home runs in the
[SPEAKER_02]: It'll be a really fun middle of the older bat there, him driving him, Bobby, what junior, a good chunk of the time.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, yeah, Cax is really fun.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's still only 23 years old.
[SPEAKER_02]: He just looks like if you just like close your eyes and imagine a slugger, you know, you're probably imagining something pretty close to what Jack can't click on it is.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, yeah, really exciting for him right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: Another guy that's pretty similar, a few inches taller, but the same way, lefty with a crap ton of power, Bryce Eldridge, with these hapsis go giants, really coming into his own here over the last few weeks, I think he has slowed down a little bit recently, but it's really starting to show that he's going to be maybe one of the best, first basement in the game, for fantasy purposes, and 156 played appearances this season.
[SPEAKER_02]: 278 378 481 slash line six home runs and a lot of red on his sub on pages well he doesn't qualify yet for all the leader boards so doesn't show the you know where he is percentile range but it's a lot of red.
[SPEAKER_02]: and probably a lot of 80 plus percentile rankings here.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a 12.5% barrel rate 91 mile an hour average EV, 53.5% hard hit rates.
[SPEAKER_02]: And the thing that I'm really encouraged by the most here Toby, I mean, we all knew that Elders had a lot of power.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, anyone that watched him in the minor leagues knew that.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's only striking out 22.5% of the time and walking at a 14% clip.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's really encouraging.
[SPEAKER_02]: I had some concerns that the carrot was going to be higher than we'd like to see.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's making a above average contact, keeping the carrot in check, 86% of his own contact rate, only a 22 and a half percent wiff rate.
[SPEAKER_02]: These are all pretty encouraging to me, so what have you thought so far on Bryce Aldridge?
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you think this is just the tip of the iceberg and he's the next big slugger at this first-based spot?
[SPEAKER_00]: I sure hope so, honestly.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like that's kind of the ceiling that everybody has thought he'd be able to reach, especially when he's coming up through the minor league ranks, but I completely agree with the strikeout limitations and the walkerate being the most impressive part about his game.
[SPEAKER_00]: So far, we knew that the power would come through
[SPEAKER_00]: He's already shown that the quality of contact and those impressive VBs would show out at the highest level.
[SPEAKER_00]: But to me, what's also stood out is the fact that he's limited chase at a pretty effective rate so far.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you said, not a qualified hit or just yet, but I believe that was still something that he did very effectively at the AAA level.
[SPEAKER_00]: And to translate that into the big leagues would be huge for him as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, always kind of hesitant when it's been this early on in a guy's career to say that this is the next big slugger.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that a floor here like 30 home runs for years is...
[SPEAKER_00]: pretty reasonable to say.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think a ceiling of like shwerver like power output every single year is also not too crazy to say either.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I really do think if he continues this trend of limiting chase and having that good feel for the zone that he certainly is going to be the next big slug or at least in the national league.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think that the key is to be, you know, can these contact rates, you kind of stick where they are?
[SPEAKER_02]: Is he going to be a guy that's average or above average contact?
[SPEAKER_02]: Or is he getting a revert back down to to where he was?
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think that'll be the key here, but, you know, regardless,
[SPEAKER_02]: 30 home run bat.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think is pretty easy to see here with Bryce Aldridge.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just a matter of Izzy and 250 guys, a 270.
[SPEAKER_02]: And regardless, the OBP should be pretty good.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's always walked at a pretty high clip.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think if you play an OBP league, I think it'll be pretty happy with that.
[SPEAKER_02]: But even if it's the, you know, the worst of the outcomes I just said,
[SPEAKER_02]: That's still a pretty damn good, you know, asset the half, that's still like a top 10, first baseman.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think it's just, can't even reach that top 5 level.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he absolutely can.
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, really exciting, start to his career here out, you know, last year was, you know, cup of coffee didn't do too well, but, you know, this year, like you said, really seems to be, you know, finding his footing and showing what he's capable of, you know, of doing in the power department.
[SPEAKER_02]: All right.
[SPEAKER_02]: But here's a fun one before we move on, Toby.
[SPEAKER_02]: If someone came up to you in a fantasy league and said, how you have your choice of taking Bryce Aldridge or Jack Kaggle on on your team moving forward, which one needs to?
[SPEAKER_02]: Would you take?
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, that's really tough.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know, they're probably pretty close right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I personally would take Cags.
[SPEAKER_00]: I, you know, and honestly, I'm just a little bias there.
[SPEAKER_00]: My best friend growing up went to the University of Florida, so we watched pretty much as many Florida games together as we could when they were making like College World Series runs and whatnot.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think just right now, the fact that he looks to be way more settled in,
[SPEAKER_00]: I really just feel like there's honestly more of a ceiling there with Cags.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's shown it at a higher level in the SEC.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you already said, the homers that he's heading are just not cheapies.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like they're just absolute moon shots and tanks.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm leaning more towards a guy who seems to be settling in a lot quicker.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I mean, no disrespect to Elder at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's,
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure going to be right up there with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's just kind of my personal feeling right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to lean more towards Cags.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm there with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I would be happy to invest in either of these names.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm pretty high on both, but if you made me pick, I would lean a little bit towards Cags.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, just what you mentioned, I think the overall ceiling is just a touch higher with him than it is with Eldridge, but I do think they're both going to be pretty darn good players here moving forward.
[SPEAKER_02]: Next guy up as a guy that as I told Toby before we hit record didn't think I'd be talking about this guy on a podcast at least not in 2026 after less couple years have gone But this guy, but that guy off is back in our our fantasy world making an impact.
[SPEAKER_02]: Unfortunately, he did hit the IL today with a hand injury, it's hopefully that doesn't kind of derail
[SPEAKER_02]: what he was doing is he just had a 24-game hit streak coming to an end recently and really just kind of getting back to the gal off that we kind of, you know, saw a few years ago, where he was that, you know, nice little power speed guy that he'd be the next.
[SPEAKER_02]: big, you know, power speed, mental and fielder that we'd all be targeting and fighting over and fantasy legs, and then in a lot of couple of years, especially last year, just did not go well, some injuries and just performance was not there.
[SPEAKER_02]: But in 228 plate appearances, this year slashing 282, 336, 498, 11 bombs, eight steals.
[SPEAKER_02]: Nice little E34 OPS and really showing a level of contact Toby that we never really saw from him.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, the Whiff rate easily career pest market, he wasn't even anywhere's close.
[SPEAKER_02]: This level of, you know, swinging the missing at the level he is only 27% Whiff rate right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: The 76% zone contact only a 23% chase rate.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I don't know if it's just a flash in the pan or or what, but what do you thoughts here on Gelloff and obviously injuries can have a bummer right now, but he's showing something here.
[SPEAKER_02]: Are you are you believing in it?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm starting to lean more towards that way.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you pop the hood, and I guess just look at the savant page, I can see why you maybe wouldn't.
[SPEAKER_00]: There are some things that could still be a little bit concerning, but still, this was a near 2020 bat back in 2024.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I feel like before this injury, I was feeling like he could really make a run for it again.
[SPEAKER_00]: Granted, it's only the 10-day I.L.
[SPEAKER_00]: He could still have plenty of opportunities to.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure he reaches that mark this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I love that you brought up the contact rate improvements, because that's exactly what I noticed too.
[SPEAKER_00]: More towards buying in the post to not the fact that he's just been more selective overall and as well as in zone When he does swing in zone it's resulted in some some pretty solid contact and it's also helped really limit that swing and miss and you know if that trend continues I'm certainly more bought in the rest of the profile honestly doesn't just entirely wow me But he's still well.
[SPEAKER_00]: I believe just 26 years old.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of room for improvement here with him
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and now that he's over to the third base now, you know, definitely has a shot to stick with this athletics team.
[SPEAKER_02]: They've had some, you know, I mean, outside of first base and shortstop, you know, they've had some kind of rotating cast of guys at those second and third base spots.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, Gallif was, you know, got that was supposed to be their long-term guy over at the Keystone and now he's over at the hot corner.
[SPEAKER_02]: So,
[SPEAKER_02]: I think playing a little bit of health field as well, but yeah, I'm a little hesitant.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, power speed has always been pretty fun.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not like loud power, but above average pop, you know, good speed, 80th percentile sprint speed.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I just want to see, you know, a little more of, you know, these contact and chase improvements, you know, less with, because it's all encouraging right now, but given where he was, I'm just kind of concerned that he's just going to
[SPEAKER_02]: at some point.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I kind of, you know, once he gets back off the I.L., you know, hopefully it's nothing more than just the 10 days or shortly thereafter.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if he continues to, you know, show this level of the metrics for another month or two, then I'll be a little bit more, you know, willing to buy in.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm intrigued, but I'm a little hesitant.
[SPEAKER_02]: I will say that.
[SPEAKER_02]: But nice to see exactly off back and doing some good things.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm just speaking of pretty fun Savont pages, Dylan Dingler has a really fun Savont page for a variety of reasons and he's been one of the hottest offensive players in all of baseball.
[SPEAKER_02]: Not just at the catcher position up to 18 home runs now in 306 point appearances, so he already has five more home runs this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Then he did all of last year in 163 fewer.
[SPEAKER_02]: played appearances.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's absolutely been pounding the ball here and in June, especially, you know, a little cold in May that have six home runs, Bernie had 206 in May, but in June, 361, 382, 7, 11, slash line with 13 extra base hits, seven home runs, 22 RBI, just really, again, one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: Lot of power here, quality contact is really, really nice and obviously anybody that's watched any Detroit Tigers games knows that this is one of the best if not the best defensive catcher in all of baseball.
[SPEAKER_02]: See, I think in real life, you can make a case at Dylan Dingler.
[SPEAKER_02]: is the best catcher in all baseball, maybe or maybe number two, but for fantasy purposes, the offense, it's kind of kind of a new level for him, Toby.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he was fine last year, he had 278, 13 bombs, I think anybody was mad with that, but now he's taking that game to the next level and to an elite level at that.
[SPEAKER_02]: So are you buying into it?
[SPEAKER_02]: So what have you, what have you seen here?
[SPEAKER_02]: What do you like in the profile of the English?
[SPEAKER_00]: I love how hard you sit in the baseball, 50% hard to hit rate in a near 13% barrel rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: That has me feeling pretty good about him, but honestly, what has me feeling even better about a guy like Dylan Dingler is not the fact that he's been hitting really well.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the fact that, like you said, the defense is just elite, elite, framer, elite blocker, and he's got great pop time as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're looking for someone that you could rely on long-term, both,
[SPEAKER_00]: in fantasy or if you are just a tiger's fan in general you pretty much found it because you know that his defense is going to cement him behind the plate for years to come as long as he'll stay healthy and you know
[SPEAKER_00]: hitting all pitch type super well, but he's just mashing breaking pitches.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just a bat right now that you have to get really creative to be able to beat and we haven't seen many pitchers really be able to do that.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the breakout's been really fun.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's hitting the crap out of the baseball and I really hope that trend continues because he's looking like he'll have at least 20 home runs by the All Star Break.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, no, he's almost there.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, another two home runs, and he'll be right at that 20 home remarks.
[SPEAKER_02]: So realistically, we could be looking at maybe like a mid 30s, 34, 36 home run season out of Dillon Dinger with plenty of runs in our BI as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, he said, one of the, you know, guy that you don't have to worry about ever moving locked position, I mean, he'll be behind the plate until the day he hangs up the plates.
[SPEAKER_02]: And what really has me encouraged, though, not that he's hitting the ball hard and yeah, it's great, but he'd done so while also improving his contact and his contact was already good.
[SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't like he had bad contact.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was already above average last year, both in zone and overall.
[SPEAKER_02]: But he's gotten better by about 3% in both areas up to 80 and a half percent in zone.
[SPEAKER_02]: about 70 and a half percent overall.
[SPEAKER_02]: So not only is he hitting the ball harder, but he's doing so with more contact.
[SPEAKER_02]: So this wasn't one of those scenarios where you trade off, you know, more power for less contact.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's just getting improving everywhere.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, the baddable angles are conducive to good power output.
[SPEAKER_02]: He gets them on the airy poles of all, but at a good clip as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, a lot of things you really like to see from the
[SPEAKER_02]: looks like a I got to keep hitting for a good average and giving you a lot of power as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I think he's right up there.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the sketch of position is pretty good right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: And there's a lot of good young talent at this position, but I think you have to consider Dylan Dingler right in that top five right now for fantasy and then again, for overall baseball real life baseball.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he might be the best catcher at all baseball right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: So
[SPEAKER_02]: deservedly he's getting his his due right now he's been hitting very very well this month next game here everyone knows me knows I love this game and I'll support this guy until he looks really good or really bad for me that's why it length earned with the tech Rangers another kind of weird year helangford didn't start off super great now though he was
[SPEAKER_02]: was at five, six weeks or so, whatever since he came back, he's been really, really hot.
[SPEAKER_02]: 306-67, 6-11 slash line, four doubles, six home runs in 79 plate appearances, making a lot more contact lately too.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, K-8's under 20% since he came back off the I.L.
[SPEAKER_02]: Configurates have gone up from where they were earlier in the season and last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's encouraging.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think
[SPEAKER_02]: everyone knows my take on Langford.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I've been a very vocal, but how high I am on him.
[SPEAKER_02]: I want to see what your thoughts here are on White Langford.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I got that another floor to guys, so somebody who's probably followed a good bit if there was collegiate days as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So what are your thoughts here?
[SPEAKER_02]: And your overall outlook for Mr. White Langford.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, why it lengthward fantasy owners.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I have a pretty positive outlook on why it lengthward and nice.
[SPEAKER_00]: In terms of like, I mean, if he just stays healthy, he's going to be studial and know that.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Rangers got an absolute steal with him fourth overall.
[SPEAKER_00]: I believe that was, but yeah, I think so.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we knew it was only a matter of time when he came back before he got hot again.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, nearly half the games that he's been back have been multi hit games, six home runs in the last 18 games before tonight, 306 average in that stretch.
[SPEAKER_00]: It just looked like a guy who was anxious to get back out there and swing the bat, high energy player is going to give you a pretty good glove out there in the field too.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I just think all around this is one of
[SPEAKER_00]: the just prototypes, guys, that you want to build your team around.
[SPEAKER_00]: How old is he still?
[SPEAKER_02]: I believe he is still 24 now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he just turned 24.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I mean, this is still a guy who's so young.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know the Rangers are kind of in an odd spot where a lot of their guys are either getting a little older.
[SPEAKER_00]: They do have some young guys, but this is the type of guy you want to be building your team around.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm all in on why it lengthened.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's an absolute stud.
[SPEAKER_00]: And this short stretch of baseball since he's come back is only a testament to that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you hit around the head.
[SPEAKER_02]: He knew you'd see us say healthy.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we've seen,
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, bits and pieces of that upside, you know, yet that one kind of the one year he was in the minor leagues where he was, he had like a 202 WRC plus or something where they could list like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: It was one of the best stands we've seen in the minor leagues in a long time.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then he's shown us, you know, glimpses of that in the major leagues as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he just can't seem to say healthy long enough to really kind of gain some momentum and kind of put all together for more than a few weeks here and there, so I think that's the key for him is in number one, just stay healthy and, you know, right now he's healthy.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's hitting well, but we've seen this before, so I'm hoping that there's not another oblique or a rib or a hip or whatever it is, quad.
[SPEAKER_02]: issue that pops up with him because yeah, my thought on him hasn't changed whatsoever.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's been a little rough, it's been a little up and down for him, sure.
[SPEAKER_02]: But at the same time, I still see the talent in there.
[SPEAKER_02]: He still, you know, likes to show us that talent.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just enough to keep us intrigued.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, yeah, if you can just stay healthy at rest of the year, just get good two, three months of just healthy baseball under his belt.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you can start seeing
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe this little stint here won't this be, you know, a two-week thing, maybe it turns into end of the year, he's up to like 21, 22 home runs and, you know, 12 to 15 steals hit in 280 or something like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: I still think he's got the chance to be, you know, I top 10 out, feel it for fantasy, long term, you know, the upside's there, you know, the power, speed, you know, the approach, you know, especially at the contact, continues to tick up like it has been lately.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think you still see a really, really good all around, kind of, you know, five category asset here, with Lightline Ferds.
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you can go out there and buy low and dynasty, I would still absolutely look to do so.
[SPEAKER_02]: Because I think the error was pointing up here, and I think the price tag's winning
[SPEAKER_02]: But unfortunately, this next guy, the arrow is pointing down and a major, major way, and that's gerendoran with the Boston Red Sox.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know what's going on with Jared Durand.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's been a really weird year.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was like a top 10 player for a week and a half two weeks in the end of May.
[SPEAKER_02]: But outside of that stretch, where he, I think he hit like, I don't have any right in front of me, but he hit like 330 with like a 750 slug in that week or something like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Outside of that, in his other, I think it was 61 games, you know, before and after that little stretch, he's hitting 169.
[SPEAKER_02]: So overall, he's now under the Mendoza line, 199, and he sat out last game for Boston.
[SPEAKER_02]: Looks like he might start to lose playing time here.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know what Boston wants to do with him.
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't seem to want to trade him, and that was value has craters.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if they even can't trade him.
[SPEAKER_02]: But Toby, does this feel like a guy that's do for a change of scenery?
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you look at the player.
[SPEAKER_02]: And there's still some good skills there.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are some concerns as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, whiffs too much.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, strikes out too much.
[SPEAKER_02]: Walker has ticked down, but he still has, you know, good bad speed, sprint speed, some pop.
[SPEAKER_02]: So there's still some fun.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, metrics under the hood, but it's just going pretty poorly for him right now and he seems to be spiraling on a control in a bad way.
[SPEAKER_02]: So what do you think, Aaron Durian, you think this guy that maybe can still have some value with a change of scenery or are you pretty out on him at this point?
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not fully out on him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you already kind of hit the nail on the head there that the stat cast and savant data.
[SPEAKER_00]: It'll show you that there is still hope.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's signs that a change of scenery here can really just be what he needs and I think that's ultimately the case with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're relying on Jared Durand to be the guy this year on this Red Sox lineup, you're really just setting him up for failure.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just really feel like it's as simple as he needs a change of scenery, maybe to a smaller market team.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he could thrive in that setting.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I have him in my home keeper league.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've had him for a keeper the last couple of years and he was my last keeper this past year.
[SPEAKER_02]: It was kind of like, you know what, I'll give him one more year.
[SPEAKER_02]: And obviously that's not going to, you know, he's not going to be one of my keepers this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Unless he has some miraculous turnaround, but thankfully,
[SPEAKER_02]: taking up that outfield spot where I was hoping to ran was going to be giving me some production.
[SPEAKER_02]: I still have him in that league.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've yet to drop him.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I've been, unless it's like, I'm Monday or a Thursday when there's, you know, like eight games being played.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's pretty much been on my bench for, you know, the last few weeks now, maybe even longer.
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't remember, remember some of the drop them quite yet.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if we get into July and run the All-Star break and into the second half of the season after that,
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's still kind of doing this.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think it might be fine to cut him in like 10 or 12 team leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously deeper leagues, 15 plus teams.
[SPEAKER_02]: You probably should still hold on to him there, but I guess it depends on how deep your league is.
[SPEAKER_02]: How into him you are, you know, how much you think you can bounce back.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not out on him either.
[SPEAKER_02]: I am pretty frustrated as a Red Sox fan.
[SPEAKER_02]: I will say that, but I still see the good tools in there.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you got to wonder if he goes to whatever new team, if he does get traded, whether it be in the next month or in the off season, just kind of want to see what that new team could possibly unlock with him.
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see, but yeah, definitely a name that's not trending in the right direction right now for sure.
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, over to the pitching side here starting with a guy that's looked really, really good after, you know, a, you know, so so majorly debut.
[SPEAKER_02]: And this is gauge jump with the athletics, you know, allowed for earned in five innings in his debut against the Mariners, but since then, one earned in seven against the Cubs.
[SPEAKER_02]: zero earned in the sixth and the third against the Astros, three earned in five against the Rockies, and then last two outings, seven shutouts against the Angels and five shutout innings with a career high nine strikeouts against the San Francisco Giants.
[SPEAKER_02]: So in one hand, Toby, I mean, the production is pretty good.
[SPEAKER_02]: The opponents recently haven't been, you know, great offenses, but, you know, gauge jumps look in pretty good so far.
[SPEAKER_02]: So what have you made
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, like you said, the first start wasn't the best, but since then he's really settled and he's been among one of the better left handed pictures in major league baseball since then.
[SPEAKER_00]: I love the fastball with him the fact that it on average is like three ticks higher than the MLB averages huge for him because if you look at his delivery, you know, I'm not.
[SPEAKER_00]: pitching mechanics guru or anything, but he hides the ball so well.
[SPEAKER_00]: He just hides it behind him really until release.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then when you fire in a fastball there, that is on average much faster than you're seeing from any other lefty.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be very hard for any hitter to really
[SPEAKER_00]: catch up to that and be able to barrel up that pitch, but that's just what he does well.
[SPEAKER_00]: He limits barrels, he limits hard hit contact, and you know he induces plenty of chase as well with that funky delivery.
[SPEAKER_00]: He seems to have a solid formula for attacking these hitters, and he'll use his slider a little more of his lefties, he'll use the change in curve a little more against varieties, and
[SPEAKER_00]: just keeps lefties on their toes with both that slider and sweeper and we'll just blow in 96 mile an hour heater right by him.
[SPEAKER_00]: So a lot of people are saying regressions do for a guy like gauge jump and while there might be some regressions do, I think this is just kind of the tip of the iceberg is what you could see given the stuff has been so well from the jump.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and the FX really needed to, you know, have a guy like jump kind of click, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Cause, you know, their offense has been pretty good the last couple of years.
[SPEAKER_02]: They got a lot of good young haters, but pitching the, you know, they haven't been quite as fortunate on the pitching side, but they, you know, they have some good prospects coming up, you know, they still got some, and some, and some other good pitching prospects as well, you know, way in land, very exciting pitching prospects as well, might be up
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, probably next year, but he had jump, but he's a guy that they really needed to click and he's really done well.
[SPEAKER_02]: I said, I don't think he's, you know, I don't have them on the same level as some of these other, you know, young guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he's going to rise to like, you know, Chase Burns, K.M.
[SPEAKER_02]: shall level it like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think he could be in that next tier where he's a really good pitcher like a top, you know, 30 ish top, 30, 35 guy for fantasy purposes.
[SPEAKER_02]: But he, you know, gets hitters to chase us at the zone at a really high clip, 34 and half percent there, you know, you mentioned limits the, you know, barrels very well.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's only allowed.
[SPEAKER_02]: I believe it was just two barrels and zero home runs so far.
[SPEAKER_02]: So obviously, you know, given the home ball park he's in,
[SPEAKER_02]: keeping the ball in the you know in the park is pretty pretty important and so he does a good job there and even on the way for it isn't super high.
[SPEAKER_02]: He so gets the strike out because he can come in as much as pretty well keeps the walk rate in check as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I think jumps just a really good arm.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think I don't think he's going to jump up to elite territory like some of these other young guys we've seen over the last year too, but I think there's a really good arm here to he does a lot of things well.
[SPEAKER_02]: to limit the hard contact, it's hitters the chase, keeps the walk right in check, a lot of good here for gauge jump, so yeah, I'm definitely buying maybe not to this level, but I think it'll be a pretty good arm here moving forward and it's nice to see a top prospect, hit the ground running and do well in the major leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: But unfortunately, Toby that was not the case for this next guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: Pretty weird, you know, last, what, four years really for Andrew Painter, I mean, top prospect in all baseball a few years ago, and then missed basically two, I think it was two, four years, maybe a little bit more than that.
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, due to elbow surgery.
[SPEAKER_02]: I was able to see him when I think was his either his first or second start back.
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a second start back out in the airs on a fally couple years ago.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then, you know, last year, you know, some more issues, but finally getting to the major leagues this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: But unfortunately not to the results that we were, you know, hoping for from a former top prospect.
[SPEAKER_02]: It was still only 23 years old, but in 14 outing 65 innings,
[SPEAKER_02]: in a 166 whip.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was still kind of giving us flashes.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he can get the waves on the slider and the splitter and both of those are in the upper 30% range down near 40% but Toby that forseemer just getting absolutely annihilated 404 betting average against 60 slug allowed.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, can't get by without a good fastball.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's pretty pretty important to have.
[SPEAKER_02]: So and even his his
[SPEAKER_02]: about 11% of the time that has a 364 batting average against.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, and some good, a lot of bad here for Andrew Painter.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, back in Triple A now, what do you make of Painter?
[SPEAKER_02]: Is he still got you thinking maybe put it together and have a good career or, you know, do you think the, you know, former top prospect, the guy that we thought could be an impact arm is kind of in the rearview mirror at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say after 12 starts, it might be a little bit unfair to say, put him in the rearview mirror, he's still 23.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you already mentioned, it's been a rollercoaster of a career for him so far.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there are things about his pitch mix and that is profile that I think do tell you that he's not worth giving up on just yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: I honestly think it's just as simple as you go back down to AAA.
[SPEAKER_00]: You refine your pitch mix a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: Figure out what works for you a little bit better when the stakes aren't as high.
[SPEAKER_00]: and then get your confidence back and come back up and then see if you can help the fillies when they need it most maybe later in the season.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the fact that he's still limits hard hit contact pretty well and hard hit EVs, I think is at least a decent enough sign.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you can just go back down to AAA, hone in on some of the pitches a little bit more, maybe hone in on that fastball a little bit more.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can really come up and be more of an impact because, I mean, it's six foot seven to 15.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you want to see that guy get back on the mountain and the big leagues and do some pretty special things.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I wouldn't give up on him just yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I want to see that fastball just get tweaked a little bit and hopefully come back up to the bigs better.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think that's really the key because he said there's still some good here.
[SPEAKER_02]: I can mention the slider and splitter both having pretty good with rates.
[SPEAKER_02]: Only an 8% walk rate, so he's walking a ton of guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you walk in like 15% of batters, I'd be a lot more concerned, but 8% walk rates, pretty solid, especially in today's game where I think the average walk rate for pictures is kind of jumped a little bit this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I get given the ABS so 8% pretty solid for a rookie pitcher who missed a lot of time the last few years.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it really all comes under that fast ball.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't know if they're, you know, how they can fix it.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to work on, you know, a different pitch grip.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, so they can like go to the sinker more with that pitch has been pretty bad as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, a lot of things to like though here, deep pitch mix, six pitches that you can use both varieties and lefties.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it gets a decent amount of swing and miss as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: Chase rates 32%, you like that too.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think really this needs to, whatever they need to do with that fastball, I mean, they need to really overhaul that.
[SPEAKER_02]: but if they can kind of fix that and get that to be a useful offering for him, I think you can really see him take off.
[SPEAKER_02]: Is he going to rise to the level where we thought he could?
[SPEAKER_02]: We're, I think we all thought he'd be up there with, you know, with Chase Burns, with Miss Yerowski, with Schlittler, all these guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: He'd be on that level at this point.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, maybe it's unfair to, you know, think that he can get there.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think he could still be an impactful arm.
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, this is a guy that
[SPEAKER_02]: is a prime bi-low candidate.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're falling out of it right now, and you're like, all right, this year, 26, I'm not going to win the championship in my league.
[SPEAKER_02]: I should just look at the 2027.
[SPEAKER_02]: You can probably either a pick him up, depending on how deep the league is.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe 10, 12 teamer, he was dropped.
[SPEAKER_02]: By someone that's just like, I'm done with him.
[SPEAKER_02]: Or you can trade for a matter of very low price tag.
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't imagine whoever does roster painter in your league
[SPEAKER_02]: frame at this point.
[SPEAKER_02]: So he's a guy that, you know, if you get him for a low cost, it doesn't work out whatever, but if you do, maybe he's the, you know, one of the core guys for you, when you get out of your rebuild in next year too.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, there's so some entry here, but yeah, that fastball needs to improve.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a, there's no doubt about that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Next guy, you know, back to some some good guys right now, and Brex and Ashcraft has been very, very good.
[SPEAKER_02]: Coming off a 10 straight out game yesterday, and I feel like he's still flying under the radar.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, obviously Pittsburgh, you know, Paul schemes.
[SPEAKER_02]: Everyone loves Paul schemes.
[SPEAKER_02]: I love Paul schemes.
[SPEAKER_02]: You love Paul schemes.
[SPEAKER_02]: We all have Paul schemes, but.
[SPEAKER_02]: Brexanash draft is really freaking good as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: Last year, he had a 271 ERA, you know, eight starts, 18 relief appearances last year, but this year moved into the rotation full time.
[SPEAKER_02]: 16 starts at 307 ERA, a 109 whip.
[SPEAKER_02]: 27.3% straight gut rate and just a 5.6% walk rate as well and Toby, outside of the surface stats, under the hood is really, really impressive as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So what do you make of 26 year old Braxton Ashcraft here?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's just putting it all together finally and that's really great to see especially in a rotation like you already mentioned, it has some start pitching in it already with guys like Paul schemes, Boba Chandler, Jared Jones is getting back in the mix as well, hopefully.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's just been really reliable for them.
[SPEAKER_00]: 96 in in two thirds innings pitched.
[SPEAKER_00]: NERA nearly under seven or three.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, NERA nearly under three at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: 3.07 right now is getting a lot of chase.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you mentioned, he's getting a lot of strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_00]: What he's even better at limiting walks.
[SPEAKER_00]: Parallel limitation as well as Ben there gets in above average amount of ground ball contact There's a lot to like with him the breaking stuff looks really good The fastball as well averaging 97 Seems like everything is just kind of clicking with him Quarter of his starts have gone for nine strikeouts or more so he looks pretty damn good Eric
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, no, he really does and it's the guy that I was absolutely guilty of not ranking high enough when he was a prospect and yeah, I didn't rank him like super low like I was so my top 500 and I think that but I never pushed him to levels that I probably should have pushed him to.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, hindsight's 2020, but yeah, this is absolutely a guy that I'm I'm looking to target and trade for right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know that.
[SPEAKER_02]: The price will be pretty high right now because he's pushing so well, but this looks legit.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like this one, those like buy high scenarios where even if the price tag is not super low, which it won't be, you know, it's still guy you want to go get, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Because you look underneath the hood, this does so many things well.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to chase rate 36 and a half per cent, you know, it has that fast bubble loss that you love to see.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got the good curve ball, you know, great curve ball, 124 batting average against 41% with race, sliders, pretty solid as well, really no bad pitches that he uses and especially, you know, the four pitches he goes to primarily.
[SPEAKER_02]: in the foreseamer sinker slider and curve ball has that occasional splitter and he'll mix in as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: He gets ground balls, he misses bats, he limits the walk rate.
[SPEAKER_02]: This really kind of checks off a lot of the boxes that I look for and you know, I got that could be, you know,
[SPEAKER_02]: a top 25 arm in baseball and I think that's the compensation we've got to have now is is he in that top 25 discussion I think he is I got I figure out if I want to rank him top 25 maybe it's a little premature but you know with pitching I think you're able to see it a little bit earlier with pitching you see the stuff you see that stuff trends like into results
[SPEAKER_02]: and I think it's pretty easy to make a big jump with a pitcher like Brax dash craft.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's still pretty young 26 years old, you know, a lot of good here.
[SPEAKER_02]: This dissertation, though, Toby, this could be, I mean, it already is really good.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if Jared Jones can get to the level that he can get to, you know, public Chandler figures it out, and then they add Seth Hernandez in like three years or two and a half years, whatever.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is going to be, you know, one of the best rotations on all baseball.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's Pittsburgh, so they'll mess it up somehow, but just thinking about that potential five right there is really, really exciting where it's like Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler could be the four or five.
[SPEAKER_02]: For this team, Ashcraft's the three Hernandez is the two and seems just the one.
[SPEAKER_02]: If he still there, we'll see.
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, that's a really fun rotation.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the already is really fun and Ashcraft is a big reason why right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm 100% buying and what Ashcraft is doing right here.
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, keep it right in the National Accentral, another guy who, I'm surprised, I was looking at him doing some research on him earlier today, he's still only 28 years old.
[SPEAKER_02]: I thought he would have been like 31 at this point, but that's the May is.
[SPEAKER_02]: kind of back.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been, I mean, the overall year a 4.3 oh, doesn't really knock your socks off, but he's been pitching really well here over the last and a month or two.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you didn't have a stink of his last outing, which kind of puts a damper on it yet, lads six earned.
[SPEAKER_02]: into innings against the Royals earlier this week.
[SPEAKER_02]: But before that, he had a one hit shot out against the San Diego Padres, six shot out innings against the Mets, and then three earned in five and two thirds against Texas, but then seven innings two earned runs.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, pretty good month stretch here.
[SPEAKER_02]: for Dustin May and maybe he's figuring it out.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm pretty hesitant on Dustin May because I don't know about you, Toby, but I used to be a big Dustin May guy back in the Dodgers days and was loving the, you know, those, the,
[SPEAKER_02]: big, big breakers in the sinker that would dart that way.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was a really fun picture to watch, right, just with how much his stuff moves, but it never transferred it into production.
[SPEAKER_02]: So he burned me one to many times.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I kind of was like, all right, I'm done with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm still a little intrigued as to because the stuff is still so good.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm interested to hear what your thoughts are on Dustin May because he's kind of been a little bit of an enigma over the last few years.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, if you were to ask me last week, I definitely would have told you, I'm super bought in on Dustin May this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I actually wrote an article about him last week.
[SPEAKER_00]: The fastball video being back up is really good to see.
[SPEAKER_00]: Looks like he tweaked his pitch mix a lot and is using that for Seamer.
[SPEAKER_00]: the most out of any other pitch that sweepers no longer his most used pitch and that's allowed him to use it as just a genuine strikeout pitch.
[SPEAKER_00]: So while that's been really good to be low there's been great to see he's been limiting walks really well he just doesn't limit hard hit contact very well or really just get enough with.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's to me what is still kind of keeping me from fully buying in.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say he's kind of having a legitimate breakout this year, but then he goes and he has a start where he will give up six earned.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I just want to see him put it together consistently here.
[SPEAKER_00]: Have, you know, maybe some solid six ending starts instead of a complete game shot out and then a stinker to follow.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd like to see a little bit more consistency.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm right there with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's kind of the thing with him for a long time is, you know, in spite of the really fun looking stuff where it's, you know, breaking so much one way or the other hitters know that's what his pitches do.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like they know the lay off.
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, that's going to break outside.
[SPEAKER_02]: Or that's going to dart down and in.
[SPEAKER_02]: They just lay off of it.
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you watch them, you think, oh, yeah, this guy has a super high.
[SPEAKER_02]: Whiff rate and super high chase rate and all this in that, that's not really been the case.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the chase rate has been pretty good this year, but by and large, he's been kind of average to below average chase rate.
[SPEAKER_02]: And whiff rate, he's been pretty low.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, outside of a 20 to 21, 22, he was high in terms of whiff rate.
[SPEAKER_02]: But outside of that, every other season, all other five seasons, he's been below it, 22% whiff rate, which is three plus percent below major league average.
[SPEAKER_02]: One thing that's kind of intriguing, he's his arm angle is back up to 33 degrees this year after being at 21 degrees last year, so definitely seeing St. Louis looking to make make those tweaks.
[SPEAKER_02]: So at this point, I think he's a usable fantasy arm, but yeah, like you said, until he starts missing bats more consistently and at this point, who knows if that ever happens, this is what he's been for a while now, I'm not like running out to get him.
[SPEAKER_02]: Sure, I'm not super opposed to that, but at the same time, I'm not really super intrigued by Dustin May here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Alright, next up here is guy that I can't figure out what that to do with at this point, Toby.
[SPEAKER_02]: Jose Soriano.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I don't think anyone he expected him to go, you know, our maintain a was a 0.24 ERA.
[SPEAKER_02]: He had in this first six starts, but his last 12 starts, he's an ERA over five.
[SPEAKER_02]: you look at the profile though it's like there's a lot of fun things at the fastball velocities there with the sinker and the fore seamer being like 96.97 he's got some good wiff rates and the knuckle curve, the splitter even the slider so you have you were just a look at the arsenal you'd be like man this guy's probably you know one of the better arms and all of baseball but then you know the walker eight comes into it and just the inconsistencies with him
[SPEAKER_02]: or just maddening at this point.
[SPEAKER_02]: I just dropped him in one league.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that is my homekeeper league.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not going to be a keeper for me.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm like, all right, I don't need you rest of this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: This other guy's I want to go get.
[SPEAKER_02]: So this point, I can't keep throwing him out there if he's going to give me five, six earned almost every time out at this point.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't know, what do you make of this profile?
[SPEAKER_02]: Because again, it's so fun under the hood, but on the surface, it's been pretty poor for about two months now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I might be crazy saying this, but I just don't know if this isn't effective long-term starter anymore.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has the stuff to be an incredible bullpen piece for a team.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's got the fastball v-lo, he's got the the wiff rate, he has the great grown ball percentage as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even when he's been so poor over his last 11 starts, but you know, over those 57 and the third innings pitched, I mean, only three of those outings have been for six innings or more.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean,
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if the angels feel like, maybe it would be worth trying to get him out of the starter role, but the walker eats just too high to tell me that this is a sustainable starter at this, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, I don't know, if you think that's too crazy to say, but that's kind of how I'm feeling with Jose Sorghano at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just not really looking like what he's going to give you in the long term is good to be trotting out there as a starting pitcher.
[SPEAKER_02]: He gives me, and this may be a weird comp, but it's almost like Jordan Hicks where the stuff is really fun, but just doesn't work for whatever reason, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know, whether it be pitch mix, just overall command, you know, how he sequence is, whatever, just doesn't work, and then Hicks went to the bullpen, and it's still isn't working.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, hopefully, sorry, I know, it doesn't go completely down the Hicks path, and become
[SPEAKER_02]: I got that you can't even trust in any situation, but that's just the vibe I got words.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's loud stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's philosophy.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a lot of movement.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a lot of wiff rate, but just has nothing to put it all together, so yeah, I'm kind of with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm still intrigued.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I don't want them on my team right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: dropped him like I said, but I'm so kind of like keeping an eye on him like all right, can he write the ship, but that walk rate, he's always been a pretty high walk rate guy, you know, 10 to 12% for the most part.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's always been an issue for him.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so at this point, maybe that's just what he is.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is a higher walk rate guy and then the command not being the greatest kind of limits is, you know, the effectiveness of his offerings, but yeah,
[SPEAKER_02]: I need to see better results from him consistently, not just, all right, you're dominant for a month and then complete garbage for two.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that foreseemed Raven of the Lost is there.
[SPEAKER_02]: He leaves it over the heart of the plate a lot.
[SPEAKER_02]: He'll look at the heat map and it's it's right over the heart a good bit and that's why he is a 592 sluggle out on that foreseemed yourself.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know, he's kind of like, you know, I'm finally him away as just a guy to keep an eye on to see if something improves under the hood and some of those areas we mentioned, but yeah, it's that's pretty rough going right now for Jose Sorriana.
[SPEAKER_02]: Alright, let's end the show with a little trade that happened last night's late and very well midnight, I think it broke on on these coasts.
[SPEAKER_02]: The cubs acquired a lefty David Peterson from the New York meds in exchange for first base prospect Cole Mathis.
[SPEAKER_02]: Peterson had a really good year two years ago, Toby, two nine zero ERA in 21 starts.
[SPEAKER_02]: Last year was
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it was all right for 22 ERA 137 whip and 160 and 230.
[SPEAKER_02]: But this year 609 ERA and a 165 whip in 68 Andings, you know, Cubs defense is better.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe that'll help him.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I don't know, do you have any intrigue right now in the 30 year old David Peterson?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if you just need a reliable left handed picture, I guess so.
[SPEAKER_00]: but just not really, I'm gonna be so blown about this.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, unless you just like guys who get a lot of ground balls and really good extension, I mean, I'm not really looking into Peter's and too much.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I said, maybe a little intrigue by the better defense that could maybe help them out.
[SPEAKER_02]: But even when he was, you know, going well had that sub three ERA.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, first off, the all the ERA indicators are like, you know, a run or run on the half higher.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and his X ERA that year was 458.
[SPEAKER_02]: So he was definitely pitching over his head.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he only had a 19.8% carry that year.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's been right around 19, 20, 21% each of the last three years.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't know where that 26-27% key rate guy from like four or five years ago went.
[SPEAKER_02]: That was a fun Peterson to roster, not so much of this guy who has below average key rates.
[SPEAKER_02]: So even if he gets that year right down, it's pretty limited unless that key rate jumps back up.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I'm not really into Peterson here.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's just kind of like a streamer at this point in good matchups.
[SPEAKER_02]: So.
[SPEAKER_02]: But real quick, before we get out of here, Cole Mathis going the other way to the New York meds.
[SPEAKER_02]: Kind of an interesting profile here, not your typical, loud power first basement here.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think I saw that here, Toby, you got it, and you know, make a solid contact.
[SPEAKER_02]: He does have some decent power, maybe a 20-homer guy or something like that, but you know,
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, a little bit of intrigue.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you said, as a little bit of pop, really excels at just keeping that ball in the air and lifting the baseball, makes pretty solid swing decisions, honestly.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not very aggressive swinging in the zone, but kind of exact go off when he does swing in the zone.
[SPEAKER_00]: He typically makes pretty efficient contact.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you pair that with solid chase and with rates, the ability to, like I already mentioned,
[SPEAKER_00]: Lift the ball and pull the base ball at that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there is some intrigue here, but like we kind of talked about before we started recording 22 year old, you know pretty much near 23 now In high A, I'm not sure where the meds really want to play him, but that doesn't necessarily wow me too much So I'll be intrigued to see where he ends up in this system and how he progresses, but
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, I wasn't really like, wow, they got cold math this out of this, you know?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, yeah, I'm right there with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I have him ranked them like the 250 to 300 range right now, because there's above average contact.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been like 77, 78% contact.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, doesn't swing and miss too much, walk right near 15%, you know, above average power.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, there's some good here in the profile.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think he's got a mix of the major leagues, but it's he like, you know, that above average
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think so.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the ceiling is, you know, little on the lower side for this position.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's kind of like, you know, over all these fine prospect to have and if you have them on your on your dynasty team, fine, like that that that's that's nothing wrong with that, but he's not a guy where I'm, you know, thinking like, oh, yeah, I have to go out and get cold math this on my team.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not really in that bucket.
[SPEAKER_02]: So.
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, kind of a fun little interesting trade here overnight to kick off our, I didn't see it till this morning.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I, interesting trade for both parties, but some interesting here on for these guys for sure.
[SPEAKER_02]: But that is going to wrap us up.
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you to everyone for tuning in again this episode.
[SPEAKER_02]: We hope you enjoyed it.
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll be back with you again next week, but until then, everyone take care.