[SPEAKER_08]: This is Invest Talk, from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time.
[SPEAKER_08]: Here's your host, Justin Klein.
[SPEAKER_02]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to Invest Talk.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is our Wednesday, June 24th, 2026 edition of Invest Talk.
[SPEAKER_02]: Appreciate you all tuning in for this hour.
[SPEAKER_02]: Lot to unpack in today's market with so much going on geopolitically with Central Banks, with physical policy,
[SPEAKER_02]: And then we have a massive IPO schedule that is already kicked off with the IPO of SpaceX and many more to come throughout the year.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's this year, it looks to be what in hindsight will probably be an inflection year in some way, shape or form.
[SPEAKER_02]: I was that more politically, is that more monetarily, is that more from a leadership perspective,
[SPEAKER_02]: be shall see, but bottom line is we are seeing a lot of volatility, a lot of increased volatility in markets, and that usually means a start of new leadership, new trends, and that's all here are here to help you with unpack what we are seeing and give you a sense of how to navigate times like these unprecedented times like these.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I'm Justin Klein, an objective as always to help you become a better investor.
[SPEAKER_02]: We do that by answering your finance investment questions and bringing you data and perspective developed over 25 years in investment experience so that you can make better decisions with your money, making decisions out of facts on the ground.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is supposed to fear and greet.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, excited as always to connect with you for the next hours.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, don't hesitate to give us a call 8-899 chart.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, our next wealth webinar is coming up in less than a week, Tuesday.
[SPEAKER_02]: June 30th, 12th, 1pm, September 6th, 6 days away.
[SPEAKER_02]: The title is beyond the yield.
[SPEAKER_02]: How to invest for your income needs.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's free, but you must register over at investtalk.com.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just to be able to talk about today's market performance and run down the show topics, but as usual, we'll tackle this first-collar question now.
[SPEAKER_06]: Hello, I'm just wondering what you think about Roblox RBLX.
[SPEAKER_06]: I was always impressed by the large number of users that has young users.
[SPEAKER_06]: And thinking that might turn into turn older and they use it even more.
[SPEAKER_06]: And they can't use it or whatever.
[SPEAKER_06]: And I was just wondering whether you think it's time to sell it.
[SPEAKER_06]: Thanks.
[SPEAKER_02]: Looking at Roblox RBLX is the symbol.
[SPEAKER_02]: Before I get into the details of this company in general, I want to first talk broadly about that first comment the color made, which is, hey, there's a lot of demand.
[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of kids use it, and that that make automatically makes it of potentially a good investment.
[SPEAKER_02]: And the reality couldn't be further from the truth.
[SPEAKER_02]: for long-term success, no short-term, yes.
[SPEAKER_02]: But over the long-term, it's about the economics of the overall business.
[SPEAKER_02]: Demand is going to add in flow.
[SPEAKER_02]: Problem is, but even when there's high demand, it'd be losing money.
[SPEAKER_02]: It could be negatively accretive to the shareholder.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you look at Roblox,
[SPEAKER_02]: Historically, it has never made money.
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you believe that?
[SPEAKER_02]: Think about all the kids of the college said, all the kids that use roadblocks and buy roadblocks.
[SPEAKER_02]: And they've never made money.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you believe that?
[SPEAKER_02]: Why can't?
[SPEAKER_02]: Very simple.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have negative economics.
[SPEAKER_02]: Go look at Return of Escapald, negative 51.3%.
[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of people look at Roblox, and there's one aspect that people will cling to, and they'll say, well look at its cash flow.
[SPEAKER_02]: It has positive free cash flow.
[SPEAKER_02]: That continues to go up and up, and that's true.
[SPEAKER_02]: That is, they won little saving grace here.
[SPEAKER_02]: The problem is that it's not a cash flow, does not account for stock-based compensation.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that is clearly how they are financing their business, how they're paying employees, that stock-based compensation does not show up in cash flow.
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you go look at numbers shares outstanding in 2020, there are 546 million shares.
[SPEAKER_02]: This was in September of 2020.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, there's 715 million shares outstanding.
[SPEAKER_02]: That is a very, that's about 30, 40% growth and the number shares outstanding.
[SPEAKER_02]: So the net income remains negative.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then you go look at the chart.
[SPEAKER_02]: Relative strength is seven, not 70, not 17, seven.
[SPEAKER_02]: That means 93% of stocks in the last year have done better than Roblox.
[SPEAKER_02]: It peaked back in September of last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: About 160 and 50 something, what is it?
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's down 68% from its 52-week-high.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, to me, this is an easy sell.
[SPEAKER_02]: Demand does not mean eight's a great investment.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now it can be a place to start.
[SPEAKER_02]: You see a certain product or service in demand.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's a good place to start your search,
[SPEAKER_02]: But it should not be the end of your research.
[SPEAKER_02]: The end should be saying, hey, this is a great business.
[SPEAKER_02]: I want to own this business because it has a great business.
[SPEAKER_02]: It creates value for me, the potential shareholder.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it does that consistently at a high level over time.
[SPEAKER_02]: Roblox is the opposite.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I would stay away.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, in a great show yesterday, we looked into the story.
[SPEAKER_02]: AI spending paradox, hyperscalers left behind as the trade evolves.
[SPEAKER_02]: We also answer questions about Stock Symbol, LMT, Locky Martin, submitted through our YouTube channel.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you have a miss it, go check it out.
[SPEAKER_02]: Best way to get every investor talk show is wherever you get your podcasts.
[SPEAKER_02]: We have a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so and time remaining.
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll get to all of it.
[SPEAKER_02]: Our main focus point concerns the story fed speak versus geopolitics, which force actually drives markets more.
[SPEAKER_02]: This week, this past week delivered a rare natural experiment major fed communications with the fed meeting.
[SPEAKER_02]: Last week, and then the Middle East sees fire.
[SPEAKER_02]: Happened about the same time, giving investors a live stress test of what truly moves markets, dissecting what force and more power over stock prices, bond yield, the dollar, etc.
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll dig into that story.
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll talk about perpetual futures.
[SPEAKER_02]: This can be shaking up the investment market.
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll talk about that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Also, our option markets telling us something about where we are in this phase of the bull market.
[SPEAKER_02]: I wanna get to that.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then if we have time, oh, oh, oh, oh, okay, it was AI at actually making trades.
[SPEAKER_02]: I always like to,
[SPEAKER_02]: Check it on this because AI will get better over time, but will be good enough to become a good trader.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've covered this before, but it's been a number of months, and we'll get an updated study.
[SPEAKER_02]: We also have questions from our voice bank, one is on the Japanese Yen, then toast to you, ST. And of course, questions that came in to be the comment section on the investor hockey YouTube channel.
[SPEAKER_02]: But most importantly, we'll be your live calls, but we're gonna head to a quick break, please don't have to be in call any time and leave your question on the investor's voice bank and if you're listening to your live stream, or possibility, possibly on AM1220 in the Bayer, you can call right now, 80 to 99, chart.
[SPEAKER_02]: Up next, I will comment on today's market activity.
[SPEAKER_08]: This is Invest Talk, now closing in on 63 million downloads, and Justin Klein is here taking your questions live.
[SPEAKER_08]: 888-99 chart.
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's go take a quick look at the market today.
[SPEAKER_02]: We had the dial up about a 31% S&P slightly in negative territory.
[SPEAKER_02]: The NASDAQ down about 43 basis points nearly half a percent there.
[SPEAKER_02]: The Russell 2000 though was actually positive by about a 31% as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So certainly a mixed bag overall.
[SPEAKER_02]: We had micron earnings after hours that certainly will move markets tomorrow.
[SPEAKER_02]: weakness out of some of the max seven names.
[SPEAKER_02]: Actually, all the max seven names are down today.
[SPEAKER_02]: Apple sounds slightly, same with Google.
[SPEAKER_02]: Invaded down about half a percent, Microsoft down, little over 2% meta down, nearly 1% Tesla down about one and a half percent as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if you look at the rest of the market, you had some pretty decent gains in areas like healthcare,
[SPEAKER_02]: Amg in up one and a quarter percent for example.
[SPEAKER_02]: Industrial is product manufacturing.
[SPEAKER_02]: That was relatively strong 3M up to an a percent on the day.
[SPEAKER_02]: You had energy markets down, so X on down over 2 percent, same as Chevron.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's some weakness there.
[SPEAKER_02]: Utilities a bit stronger with yields that were down a bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: yields down at 8.9 basis points at the back end of the curve.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's kind of a bit of a positive.
[SPEAKER_02]: Overall, dollar index up 0.2 percent.
[SPEAKER_02]: Gold down 3.4, just above 4,000 an ounce.
[SPEAKER_02]: Silver was off 6.4 percent.
[SPEAKER_02]: So a big move there.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm starting to see sentiment-convideal capitulation in Golden Silver.
[SPEAKER_02]: Something I've been watching.
[SPEAKER_02]: Bitcoin features down 4.1% more pressure coming out of micro strategy and was it STRC?
[SPEAKER_02]: One of those promising double digit yields and now it's already down 20% from its power value.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, as we always say, there's all this, there's no free lunch here and you're certainly seeing that in the Bitcoin market and anything related to Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_02]: WTI was down 3.4% with price of below $70 a barrel, the lowest level in many, many months.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that was the market today.
[SPEAKER_02]: Once again, you're getting a lot of volatility.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's still a lot of angst and worry about the AI trade.
[SPEAKER_02]: an end demand for AI compute.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's something that's going to evolve.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think for the rest of the year, see where the market really settles on longer-term growth.
[SPEAKER_02]: Because clearly right now, the long-term growth expectations are too high within the space.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think there's going to be a re-adjustment there, so that might have helped painful that will that be for the tech sector.
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you have home sales, may home set new home sales increase 580,000 versus consensus for 640,000?
[SPEAKER_02]: April was revised though, up a little bit, but May was the weakest since January of this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Medium sales price though was still up to percent month over month and unchanged year over years.
[SPEAKER_02]: Despite the low level of sales, prices remain.
[SPEAKER_02]: means strong.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that was the market today, very interesting kind of mix as we move throughout this week with a cassette micron at earnings, it's up after hours, so that should give a positive impulse for tomorrow, but this is in like trading things could change dramatically between now and tomorrow's close.
[SPEAKER_02]: So very interesting to watch how the reaction is in markets
[SPEAKER_02]: That was the market today, but we're going to head into a quick break.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you remember you can call any time and leave your question on the Vestock Voice Bank and you're listening to via our live stream, or possibly on Amtlet 20 the Bay Area, you can call right now at 8.899 chart, up next I'll comment on today's market activity.
[SPEAKER_08]: It's coming up fast and all new in Vestock, wealth webinar beyond the yield, how to invest for your income needs.
[SPEAKER_08]: This coming Tuesday, June 30th, noon to 1 Pacific Time, online in free of charge, but you must pre-register at investock.com.
[SPEAKER_08]: And now the Invest Talk phone lines are open 88899 chart.
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk about this bull market, bottomed in what was that fall of 2022, and the really powering higher ever since.
[SPEAKER_02]: So we're going on nearly four years of this
[SPEAKER_02]: And a lot of people point to valuations, and when valuations are this high, especially in the tech sector, forward returns tend to be fairly poor.
[SPEAKER_02]: But we all know that valuation is a horrible timing mechanism.
[SPEAKER_02]: But Mark is usually peak on euphoria.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's usually a better timing mechanism.
[SPEAKER_02]: as when investors are taking just insane risk where they can't be taking really more, it has to just go the other way of taking less and once the tide starts to turn, then momentum can then create a major drop in equities.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's how that's the process of these we call them bubbles, but the end of full markets.
[SPEAKER_02]: The question is, has that phase arrived?
[SPEAKER_02]: You've talked about the SpaceX IPO for the past few weeks, briefly trading over two trillion dollars in value, now coming back down to Earth, but trading at 100 plus times revenue, because and everyone that's what they're looking at is that valuation because they don't make money.
[SPEAKER_02]: They lost $5 billion last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I saw that the most interesting
[SPEAKER_02]: It's actually a famous trader.
[SPEAKER_02]: It was, I think it was Akman, Bill Akman.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he said something along the lines of the real value in SpaceX is that it has high value.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he was arguing that he was, they were going to use that equity to go buy other companies, which they did recently, buying $60 billion, paying $60 billion for,
[SPEAKER_02]: Which on its face kind of reminds me of that equities as in the late 1920s, some writer, I forgot who it was, but said, equities have reached a high and permanent plateau.
[SPEAKER_02]: It reminds me of that.
[SPEAKER_02]: That was a good amount of predicting a crash right there.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm just saying there are signs that euphoria is way beyond reality.
[SPEAKER_02]: One of the best indicators of that today is actually the options market area where it's about leverage, it's about big bets, about gambling on stock prices basically.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now volumes of options have now nearly doubled since 2020 and that itself was a year of a record option volume.
[SPEAKER_02]: The CME group says that transactions for options on the SP500 that expire in the same day were 3.7 times higher in 2025 than in 2021.
[SPEAKER_02]: So options volume is massive compared to what it used to be.
[SPEAKER_02]: Options have there's calls and there's puts.
[SPEAKER_02]: Historically, puts are more valuable than calls.
[SPEAKER_02]: Why?
[SPEAKER_02]: Because markets tend to rise slowly than plunged quickly.
[SPEAKER_02]: So downside volatility when it's realized tends to be higher, tends to be, tends to create bigger moves.
[SPEAKER_02]: Therefore, when you're buying puts, you're gonna pay up because if you're correct, your path's probably going to be higher.
[SPEAKER_02]: Versus, if you're buying calls, well, it tends to kind of grind higher.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you don't really, you know, if you're in your right,
[SPEAKER_02]: Make money, it might still be in the money, but won't be likely as big of a profit.
[SPEAKER_02]: So what's interesting is that the average call option for stocks in the NASDAQ is now almost as expensive as the average put.
[SPEAKER_02]: So the market is now pricing upside volatility being nearly as much as potentially downside
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's a sign that we're in the latter innings of this whole market.
[SPEAKER_02]: Problem is that the longer it kind of goes on, the bigger the potential hangover, but it can get once again on longer than you realize.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now the next investor talk will look into the story.
[SPEAKER_02]: Minimum wage and inflation.
[SPEAKER_02]: What higher labor costs really mean for your portfolio.
[SPEAKER_02]: Raising minimum wage has been a political winner for years, but it's now running into stiff resistance as inflation concerns take center stage.
[SPEAKER_02]: For investors, the debate cuts to the heart of corporate margins, because they're spending power, and the Fed's inflation fighting mandate.
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll take into that story tomorrow, but for now I'm Justin Klein, and we're ready to take your calls any time and eight and eight, now you nine chart.
[SPEAKER_07]: Invest talk is ready 24-7 for your finance and investment questions.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm hoping you'll give me your cake on format technology ORA.
[SPEAKER_03]: Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest into better stocks?
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[SPEAKER_02]: When we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time.
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[SPEAKER_08]: In the early days, in Vestock was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Our focus point today concerns this story.
[SPEAKER_02]: Fed speaks versus geopolitics, which force actually drives markets more.
[SPEAKER_02]: The last week was a great test case for getting that answer.
[SPEAKER_02]: We had the Fed meeting on Wednesday, we had a, what seemed to be a peace deal that may end the Iran conflict still kind of TBD on that side, but either way,
[SPEAKER_02]: were impactful, but which one had more power over stock prices, bond yields, the dollar, et cetera, and how do you can you think about that going forward?
[SPEAKER_02]: Now last week, equities did rally a little bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you could say, hey, the resolution of the Iran conflict had more impact, because the Fed policy
[SPEAKER_02]: But then you look underneath the surface, and you say, well, the trends are saying something different, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: The sector trends, shall we say.
[SPEAKER_02]: You had it, may retail sales.
[SPEAKER_02]: They were better than expected up.
[SPEAKER_02]: 9% month over month.
[SPEAKER_02]: Industrial production, edge.plet.1%, so that's the manufacturing sector, at least domestically, was on decent footing.
[SPEAKER_02]: But then the Fed meeting came in on June 17th, we could go.
[SPEAKER_02]: And as pretty unanimous, it was a hawkish shift to hawkish, hawkish expectations were built in going forward, and the market reacted accordingly, especially yesterday, big move down.
[SPEAKER_02]: Which you have to remember is that often times the first few days after a fed meeting is still jogging for position is the market still kind of digesting what this means and now since the fed meeting broad equities are down especially growth related ones like the NASDAQ that's
[SPEAKER_02]: on 17th, around 734, now we're down to 711 or so.
[SPEAKER_02]: Not a big move, but certainly a down move.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's all with what seems to be positive resolution, at least steps towards the positive resolution in the Middle East.
[SPEAKER_02]: So which force has a bigger impact that we're longer on the Fed or politics?
[SPEAKER_02]: Geopolitics, the simple answer is the Fed.
[SPEAKER_02]: While geopolitics make the biggest headlines that probably are the most interesting,
[SPEAKER_02]: geopolitics tend to move slowly, and big news is usually overblown because there's adjustments me.
[SPEAKER_02]: But when the Fed moves, that's the cost of capital.
[SPEAKER_02]: That permeates throughout the world, throughout capital markets, around the globe, especially when the Fed takes action.
[SPEAKER_02]: Interest rates tend to act as kind of financial gravity for asset prices when they go up,
[SPEAKER_02]: That competes those risk-free rates compete with risky assets.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's why there tends to be a bearish impact of more hawkish fed rhetoric.
[SPEAKER_02]: So unless geopolitics permanently alter the way business is done, the market generally starts to look through it, especially in a globalized world,
[SPEAKER_02]: Once again, companies can shift their supply chains, where they get their products, where they get their energy needs, fulfilled, et cetera.
[SPEAKER_02]: Then you look at the dollar, the dollar is another tell here.
[SPEAKER_02]: Usually if you had the resolution of, what's going on with the United States and Iran, that's gonna trigger on trigger a risk on environment, that usually means a weaker dollar.
[SPEAKER_02]: because money flows from safe hand and assets to risk assets.
[SPEAKER_02]: But what's happened recently?
[SPEAKER_02]: The dollar is actually up to a one year high.
[SPEAKER_02]: Why?
[SPEAKER_02]: Because the market is focusing more on hawkish fed rhetoric.
[SPEAKER_02]: For the moral of the story here is,
[SPEAKER_02]: Once that garnered the most attention by the average person, maybe even CNBC, while that is more interesting, it oftentimes is the boring headline, the boring facts about, you know, money creation, bank lending, kind of financial plumbing, those are the things that actually matter far more than most of the headlines you see.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now let's go squeeze in another listener question now.
[SPEAKER_05]: Please drop something in Luke.
[SPEAKER_05]: Just have a question about toast, T-O-S-T.
[SPEAKER_05]: I've just been interested in the company for a while and just wanted to know your guys as a take on it.
[SPEAKER_05]: Seems like an interesting company and seems like it could be worth investing in and just my understanding of it looks like it engages in just consumer payment applications
[SPEAKER_05]: just has been going down 40% over the last year and just curious on if this software might take off later on and just want to know your guys take.
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm looking at toast.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is a name that we actually own for clients.
[SPEAKER_02]: We are down a little bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: But it's starting to turn around.
[SPEAKER_02]: Today was up 6% 6.1% on the day.
[SPEAKER_02]: Why do we like toast?
[SPEAKER_02]: And why is it down so much?
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, it's down because it's being lumped in with the software patch, software companies.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's certainly is software.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a SaaS business, software's a service.
[SPEAKER_02]: But in our minds, it actually has an economic mode that prevents AI from really undermining their business.
[SPEAKER_02]: Think about it.
[SPEAKER_02]: The way reason why AI stocks have been down
[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of the companies that use their products, they're starting to, they have the staff, they have the know-how to bring up cloud code and vibe code their own type of solution, that's similar to what, maybe these other SaaS companies offer.
[SPEAKER_02]: Toast is a bit different.
[SPEAKER_02]: Number one, their client base, the restaurant owners.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now some restaurant owners maybe barely technologically sophisticated, but most art, most art focused on building a menu, executing the kitchen, managing people, all that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Then there's the hardware side where the ordering system is linked up with the register.
[SPEAKER_02]: You place an order on the register.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're using toast as an ecosystem in a restaurant, it's radish straight to the kitchen.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that whole ecosystem is very sticky.
[SPEAKER_02]: And hard for, I think, the average restaurant owner to just replace, I think, in a go and build their own cashier or a register that will link in with some software
[SPEAKER_02]: Claude, unlikely, very unlikely, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: And so to us, this is one of if not the best opportunity in the software patch.
[SPEAKER_02]: Because you also go look at things like the balance sheet, where they have about a billion, two and a half billion dollars in net cash on a market have a 15 billion free cash to those 650 million, about a four and a half percent free cash flow yield.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's the harder than that because you're going to basically enterprise value, you're looking closer to five percent.
[SPEAKER_02]: Return of SD Capital 21 percent, very high returning equity, returning equity also 21 percent.
[SPEAKER_02]: And all these numbers are moving higher and most importantly, this is something we were
[SPEAKER_02]: We were looking for one of the reasons why we even more bullish on it now is that they were issuing a ton of shares from 2021 that 500 $2 million shares that standing and they peaked out recently at $589 million shares outstanding.
[SPEAKER_02]: So pretty decent increase in total shares, but as shares have gone down and they're balance sheet is so clean now they're actually buying back shares for the first time really in the history of the business.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's starting to slow its momentum to the downside.
[SPEAKER_02]: In fact, it's actually, if you go look at the low from February, it's actually above that low, they make a lower low recently, but it's starting to continue to test this hundred-day moving average, and it's hit that a few times.
[SPEAKER_02]: And the more you bang on a particular resistance point,
[SPEAKER_02]: The higher chance that that has to break out to the upside.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think to us is on the precipice of that.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I would continue to buy toast and we are buying toast.
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's play two and a row from eight and a nine chart.
[SPEAKER_04]: Hey Justin, this is Shane.
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm curious to hear your thoughts on the Japanese yen, carry trade and how that's going to play role in the markets going forward.
[SPEAKER_04]: Japanese Yen weakening their current interest rates at 1% I know that they have CPI coming out this evening.
[SPEAKER_04]: Just curious as we look at the charts back in July of 2024 and they increase their rates from 0% to a core basis point.
[SPEAKER_04]: What that did to the semi-conductors and the overall market for the few weeks afterwards.
[SPEAKER_04]: just interested here what your thoughts are going forward now that we're at one percent.
[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're looking at the the yen, the yen carry trade.
[SPEAKER_02]: As I said just recently earlier in the show about the financial plumbing in those headlines that are that are more important.
[SPEAKER_02]: We are let's say those boring factors that are more important than the headlines.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is one of
[SPEAKER_02]: Most investors don't really understand the end carry trade, they don't follow it, but it is one of the most important factors in markets in the short term.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm looking at the FXY at Y went from 57 all the way up to 66 and just the matter of two months.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to sound like a law-performer, a currency, appreciating 20-plus percent.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's an issue, especially when a lot of investors are short, yeah, and that's what the end-carry trade is.
[SPEAKER_02]: You go, you borrow money in yen at low-end streets, because that's where the streets are in Japan, the very low.
[SPEAKER_02]: Then you take those proceeds and you go invest them overseas typically in US stocks.
[SPEAKER_02]: And as long as US stocks are going up, and the end is going down, which it has for long time because their fiscal situation is even worse than ours, you get the double
[SPEAKER_02]: price appreciation of the dollar versus the yen because when you go sell it, you take those dollars and you transition them back into yen and you pay off the debt.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's how that means you unwind the yen carry trade.
[SPEAKER_02]: So in many ways this is a funding currency
[SPEAKER_02]: They've started to also diversify the carry trade.
[SPEAKER_02]: You actually can borrow when things like Swiss Frank, because the euro, where their rates are low as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's also something happens.
[SPEAKER_02]: But right now, if you look at the yen, it's at a multi-year-old low.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's no signs that you're going to get a spike in the end.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's what you would need.
[SPEAKER_02]: You would need to say, okay, the end, instead of depreciating it, depreciating us the dollar, it's actually appreciating against the dollar, which means that that currency risk that normally is a tailwind to returns when you're doing the end carry trade is now a headwind.
[SPEAKER_02]: And therefore doesn't make sense to hold on to that carry trade, which means you sell your equities.
[SPEAKER_02]: You take those dollars in you, transition them back into yen,
[SPEAKER_02]: and you pay off the debt.
[SPEAKER_02]: But that's not happening now.
[SPEAKER_02]: But that's what you're talking about.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's what could happen.
[SPEAKER_02]: So despite the headlines, you have to follow the trends and the trends are still in place with a lower, yen, and the yen carry trade intact.
[SPEAKER_02]: So no signs right now, good change.
[SPEAKER_02]: No signs right now that that will shift in the short term.
[SPEAKER_02]: As a Vestop, I'm just inclined with one goal here each and every week day, so help you achieve your own version of financial freedom, and I work continues after this final break sketch questions, and now, a-today, that ain't how you enjoy it.
[SPEAKER_08]: Invest Talk.
[SPEAKER_08]: Tell your friends they can listen live, download the free podcast, or watch Invest Talk on our YouTube channel.
[SPEAKER_08]: And they can leave their finance and investment questions anytime on 88899 chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, can I have your opinion on owning physical gold and silver and state of gold and silver stocks or ETFs?
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you so much.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't see a real strong argument for owning a physical golden silver.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are a lot of doomsdayers that think that owning the physical metal or metals will somehow protect them.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that, you know, when everything goes to hell in a hand basket, that that will somehow be a saving grace.
[SPEAKER_02]: First off, I'm not that pessimistic.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think we're going through a foreturning and yet things may get a little worse before they get better.
[SPEAKER_02]: But is that mean we're going to societal collapse?
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think so.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think we're just going through a rough period in our history, which happens usually every 80s to 90 years.
[SPEAKER_02]: And things do get that bad.
[SPEAKER_02]: Are you really, if you give other things to worry about, I rather have a doomsday bunker kit, for example, that would keep my family fed for weeks of thumb months.
[SPEAKER_02]: me those are more important.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then if you're worried about the paper markets, you can still own golden silver physically, but own them through an ETF.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are physical golden silver ETFs where the golden silver is audited.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's held in vaults, et cetera.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're going to do it, do it that way.
[SPEAKER_02]: You don't need to hold on to it and say, if we're, you know, maybe your family gets robbed
[SPEAKER_02]: I rather own the miners is more leverage to the upside when things do go well.
[SPEAKER_02]: But it all depends on your the risk you want to take what's important to you.
[SPEAKER_02]: How doomsday are you?
[SPEAKER_02]: Or is it just the asset class allocation in times of increasing uncertainty and fiscal largest, et cetera?
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the way I look at it.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the way we look at it.
[SPEAKER_02]: That is a doomsday scenario, but just simply
[SPEAKER_02]: A time in history where harder assets become more valuable and that's to me the best way to look at golden silver allocation.
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's talk about perpetual futures.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is something that's starting to be talked about more and more.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's where you have futures contracts.
[SPEAKER_02]: that never expire.
[SPEAKER_02]: You can have huge leverage, and they're already making a big impact on U.S. markets.
[SPEAKER_02]: You can trade that on CalShee, for example, and a basket of perpetual futures tied to them.
[SPEAKER_02]: has surpassed eight and a half billion dollars in trading volume in the last few weeks.
[SPEAKER_02]: So they're rising in popularity, and this has hurt some of the traditional exchanges, and the quick question is, is this going to continue?
[SPEAKER_02]: Is this trend going to continue?
[SPEAKER_02]: Skeptics warn that because of their leverage, that could be as high as 100 to 1, you could easily see a downward spiral during market stress, and they have a mechanism called auto liquidation.
[SPEAKER_02]: institutional exchanges when you get margin called these perpetual features just auto liquidate which can result in massive losses during crash, including a 100% you could lose all of it and it's not something that your in control of selling happened when President Trump announced the 100% tariffs against China on October 10th erased 13 billion dollars in leverage positions in this market
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's highly risky, but there are positives to it as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: The advantages that perpetuals never expire, which means they don't have fees that can be incurred from rolling the contract like traditional futures.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the upside.
[SPEAKER_02]: Coinbase reasoning set is launching perpetual features tied to stock indices, tracking AI, China Defense, Top 100 NASDAQ companies with up to 20 times leverage.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is,
[SPEAKER_02]: This is a big shift potentially, but also it creates even more risk in markets, which should shock anyone.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm Justin Klein, remind you about K, could be a financials parallel investing.
[SPEAKER_02]: Let me make a trade for our clients.
[SPEAKER_02]: Make a same trade for ourselves.
[SPEAKER_02]: Same day, same price, same percentage, no front running.
[SPEAKER_02]: No special treatment.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've asked right alongside our clients.
[SPEAKER_02]: We should at the same risk and potential for success and you can learn more by heading over to invest.com.
[SPEAKER_02]: Please tell your friends and family about our free podcast downloads, which you can find anytime at iTunes, Spotify, or at over to our YouTube channel, check out our videos.
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[SPEAKER_02]: The next webinar is coming up.
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