[SPEAKER_00]: There's a new sheriff in town over at the Federal Reserve, and his name is Kevin Worsh, and he just shot the markets.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to go over today's FOMC announcement as well as the press conference that followed, and I'm going to discuss the implications for the economy and the markets both if Worsh and his buddies at the FOMC can actually follow through and walk the walk.
[SPEAKER_00]: when it comes to inflation, fighting, and restoring price stability, or if it's all just a budget talk.
[SPEAKER_00]: But either way, you better be prepared for the consequences.
[SPEAKER_00]: Today we got the announcement from the Federal Reserve that interest rates were going to remain unchanged.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think that surprised anybody because I don't believe that anybody thought that the Fed was going to do anything at the very first meeting with the new Fed Chairman leading the way.
[SPEAKER_00]: But as a result of what was said and what was not said and often the case, what's not said is more important than what is said.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the markets are now starting to brace for a much more hawkish fed than the fed that we had before.
[SPEAKER_00]: reappointed.
[SPEAKER_00]: The reason that Trump decided to switch horses is because Powell was too much of a hawk as far as Trump was concerned, too late, Powell that Powell wasn't cutting rates fast enough.
[SPEAKER_00]: He wasn't cutting them enough.
[SPEAKER_00]: He wanted to replace Powell with a bigger
[SPEAKER_00]: and Powell wasn't delivering.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that's why he selected Kevin Worst to do what Powell wouldn't do.
[SPEAKER_00]: But now it appears that he's going to be even worse from Trump's perspective.
[SPEAKER_00]: Then, Powell, which reminds me of the saying, the devil you know, because the devil that Trump didn't know is threatening to be a lot worse than the one that he did.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's interesting that following today's decision to leave rates unchanged, when Trump was asked about it, he didn't have any criticism.
[SPEAKER_00]: for wool.
[SPEAKER_00]: She said, well, we got a good man at the helm.
[SPEAKER_00]: So whatever he decides, well, that must be the right thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: He didn't display that kind of efforts to pal, had pal still been the chair and the Fed done the exact same thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: Trump would have been all over him.
[SPEAKER_00]: He would have been talking about how he's a low IQ person, how he's not a brighter, a dumb person.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's wrong.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's crazy.
[SPEAKER_00]: We need to slash interest rates.
[SPEAKER_00]: We got to get rid of this guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: We got to fire him.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's deliberately undermining the economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: but he didn't have any of that criticism for Kevin Wars.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll see how long Trump can hold his tongue when it comes to expressing any disappointment in what Kevin Wars does.
[SPEAKER_00]: Remember Paul is still there, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a member voting member of the FOMC and he's one of the people who voted to leave interest rates unchanged.
[SPEAKER_00]: along with wars.
[SPEAKER_00]: But anyway, I want to get started by reading the statement, the prepared statement that the Fed released about a half hour before the press conference.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the interesting thing about this statement is how short it is.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is the shortest statement that I can recall ever reading and ever commenting on when it comes to the FOMC.
[SPEAKER_00]: So right off the bat, that's a change, meaning that the Fed is trying to give the markets less information and not more.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the statement is so short, I'm actually going to read it.
[SPEAKER_00]: This will be the first time I've read an entire statement because it's short enough that I can do that.
[SPEAKER_00]: So here is what the Fed said.
[SPEAKER_00]: The federal open market committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 to 0 vote.
[SPEAKER_00]: Unanimous, finally, a unanimous decision.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even the people that were voting for rate cuts in the past,
[SPEAKER_00]: They're okay with leaving rates the way they are.
[SPEAKER_00]: The committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at three and a half to three and three quarters per cent.
[SPEAKER_00]: In support of the Fed's dual mandate, the committee reaffirms its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, he then goes on to talk about the Fed's commitment to price stability.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, in fact, before I get there, let me finish reading the statement, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, despite elevated uncertainty that owes in part to the conflicts in the Middle East.
[SPEAKER_00]: Productivity growth and capital investments are strong.
[SPEAKER_00]: Job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little.
[SPEAKER_00]: inflation remains elevated relative to the committee's 2% goal in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy that committee will deliver price stability.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
[SPEAKER_00]: End of statement.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it ends with a commitment to deliver price stability.
[SPEAKER_00]: The committee will deliver price stability.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that commitment is in conflict with the Fed's reaffirming
[SPEAKER_00]: that it is also committed to maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
[SPEAKER_00]: What does that mean?
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of money, a big balance sheet, artificially low interest rates.
[SPEAKER_00]: The reason that inflation is so high, it's not because of supply shocks.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not because of the war.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's because of those ample reserves in the system.
[SPEAKER_00]: The ample reserves are the inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the liquidity that defed injected into the system.
[SPEAKER_00]: So on the one hand, he's promising not to withdraw that liquidity, but to maintain it on the other hand, he's saying, but we're going to deliver price stability.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, it's one or the other.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can't have both.
[SPEAKER_00]: If the Fed does not drain that excess liquidity, then we're going to keep having inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm going to get into that as we start discussing the Q&A, which is always the most interesting
[SPEAKER_00]: of the defed day when they announce what they're going to do.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, one of the things that wars started with is he said that he is establishing these five task forces to study all these problems, five task forces.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, first of all, wasn't he appointed because, you know, he knows the solution to these problems,
[SPEAKER_00]: because it looks to me like he doesn't have any solutions.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a task force for everything, but a solution for nothing.
[SPEAKER_00]: Five new task force are gonna have to be created.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's got a whole federal open market committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got all these people that work for the Fed.
[SPEAKER_00]: Isn't that enough?
[SPEAKER_00]: What do we need these five new task force for?
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, what it reminds me of is the government how they always want to establish a committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: Whenever there's a problem that they don't want to solve or that they can't solve,
[SPEAKER_00]: in any way that's politically acceptable, because the solution is going to cause some pain.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so they don't want to solve the problem, but they want to pretend that they're actually doing something about it, what do the politicians do?
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, they create a committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: They say, well, we're going to create this committee to study this problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's why, like with reparations, what did they do?
[SPEAKER_00]: Did the government say we're going to have reparations?
[SPEAKER_00]: No.
[SPEAKER_00]: but they don't want to tell voters that they can't have their reparations.
[SPEAKER_00]: So what do they do?
[SPEAKER_00]: They establish a committee to study reparations, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: That is an easy excuse, not to deal with something, to pretend that you are, yes, we're very concerned about this and so we are going to establish a committee to study it.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's how they always have dealt with the deficits, cutting the deficit.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's come up with a committee instead of actually cutting government spending, voting for that.
[SPEAKER_00]: They establish a committee to make recommendations on what the cut.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then a year later, when the committee comes up with some recommendations, they just ignore it.
[SPEAKER_00]: But in the moment where they established a committee, it takes the pressure off them to actually do anything.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because, hey, we're waiting for the committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we're doing something serious.
[SPEAKER_00]: That was to committee to study the problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: That means we're serious about the problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: No, it means they're not serious.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because if they were serious, they would just tackle the problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: They would solve the problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: They wouldn't create a committee to study the problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: So they didn't have to solve it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's really what warship's doing now.
[SPEAKER_00]: with the problems that the Fed has created because he wants to create these five task forces.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so now this basically takes the pressure off of him because whenever anybody asks him a question, it's like, well, let's see what the task force says.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I thought this guy was supposed to be so smart.
[SPEAKER_00]: Trump appointed him, he's this bright guy, he's this great guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: He knows what he's going to do.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now he doesn't have any idea what he's going to do.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's waiting for some task forces to tell him what to do, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: So...
[SPEAKER_00]: The first task force is about fed communications.
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess how to change or improve the way the fed communicates with the public, with the markets, with the government.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, one of the ways they've already tweaked it a bit,
[SPEAKER_00]: is worse has made it clear that they're not giving any forward guidance anymore.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not going to have a bias towards easing or tightening, which is a way of influencing the markets by guiding them, by letting them think we have an easing bias or tightening bias.
[SPEAKER_00]: Basically, there is no more forward guidance, although they still have these dot plots.
[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, the dot plots that are there and in wars made it clear that he wasn't one of them.
[SPEAKER_00]: He refrained from making a prediction on where he thought interest rates would be.
[SPEAKER_00]: But based on these dot plots,
[SPEAKER_00]: The FOMC now believes that we're going to hike interest rates by about a half a point, two quarter foreign hikes between now and the end of the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, there is no more talk of rate cuts.
[SPEAKER_00]: The only question is,
[SPEAKER_00]: rate hikes.
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, even if we get a 50 basis point rate height from here, it's too little too late to do anything about derailing this inflation trade because it's a runaway trade.
[SPEAKER_00]: And rather than dealing with the problem, worse wants to hide from it by setting up these tasks for.
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, the first task force is on communications.
[SPEAKER_00]: The second one,
[SPEAKER_00]: is to study the Fed's balance sheet and the risks and the benefits of having ample reserves and then looking at the composition of the balance sheet.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, you don't have to study this.
[SPEAKER_00]: I can save you a lot of time and a lot of money.
[SPEAKER_00]: The balance sheet is a big problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's why we have all this inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's too big and it needs to be a lot smaller.
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't need to study it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, there's going to be adverse consequences of shrinking the bowel sheet, but there's worse consequences of not shrinking it.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just that if we shrink it, we have the consequences sooner rather than later.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you care about the country, you swallow the bitter tasting medicine and you shrink that bowel sheet now, and we don't need to study the problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: You only study the problem when you don't want to solve the problem, which the Fed does
[SPEAKER_00]: The third task force is going to focus on the data that the Fed gathers and the sources of the data that it relies on because obviously a lot of the data is wrong, a lot of the numbers that they base their decisions on are clearly wrong.
[SPEAKER_00]: So apparently they're going to look into it and see if maybe they can get more reliable data.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, or maybe they're going to look into how they can fake the data because if they can't actually deliver price stability, maybe they can find a new metric to pretend that they've achieved it when they can't.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because he admitted it's been over five years and they don't have price stability.
[SPEAKER_00]: We are way above the Fed's 2% target.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not even close.
[SPEAKER_00]: The fourth task force is to study jobs and productivity.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I guess AI is going to be in there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, this is another waste of time.
[SPEAKER_00]: The fifth task force,
[SPEAKER_00]: is the inflation framework's task forth.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that's basically the only one they really supposed to have, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: The fifth task forth is actually about inflation, which is what he's supposed to be controlling.
[SPEAKER_00]: And according to what Wars said, this task force is going to examine the drivers of inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the driver of inflation is the Fed itself.
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to examine anything.
[SPEAKER_00]: What did this is a complete waste of time?
[SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't wars to know where inflation comes from?
[SPEAKER_00]: He should.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's the chairman of the FOMC.
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't have to figure out what the drivers are.
[SPEAKER_00]: We know what the drivers are.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's not just
[SPEAKER_00]: The Fed is Congress, it's the deficit spending, it's the big beautiful bill, it's the U.S.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the Federal Reserve enabling the U.S. government, it's excess government spending, excess money printing, easy credit, artificially low interest rates, those are the drivers.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's nothing to study.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if the Fed doesn't want to drive the economy off the edge of a cliff,
[SPEAKER_00]: It needs to tackle inflation head on, not come up with committees to waste time and resources answering or solving a problem that is where the solution is obvious, but the political consequences are too dire for the Fed to actually do it, so it makes up and excuse.
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, we got a quick commercial break.
[SPEAKER_00]: I got a lot more to discuss regarding the press conference, what was said, and what was
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, while I'm talking about inflation, one of the questions that Worsh got, the reporter reminded him that he said in some past statements that inflation is a choice.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he reiterated that and said, yes, it is a choice.
[SPEAKER_00]: And with that I agree, inflation is a choice.
[SPEAKER_00]: has chosen inflation, by, by design.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason that the Fed chose to create inflation, the reason that Greenspan chose inflation, the reason that Bernanke chose inflation, the reason that Yellen chose inflation, the reason that Powell chose inflation is because if they didn't choose inflation, the opposite choice was something that in their minds was even worse.
[SPEAKER_00]: The reason that the Fed has chose inflation
[SPEAKER_00]: The alternative to inflation is a stock market crash, a real-state crash, a recession.
[SPEAKER_00]: The alternative to inflation is to force the U.S. government to be fiscally responsible to force the government to slash government spending, either that or dramatically raised taxes.
[SPEAKER_00]: But neither of those is appealing to the government.
[SPEAKER_00]: So in order to spare our politicians from making these difficult political decisions in order to bail out stockholders, real estate owners, in order to prop up the banking system and to prevent a financial crisis, the Fed chooses to create inflation instead.
[SPEAKER_00]: it's very simple.
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't have to make that choice.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Fed can allow the bitter tasting medicine.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Fed can allow the markets to correct all these problems, but it doesn't want to.
[SPEAKER_00]: The politicians don't want that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Donald Trump certainly doesn't want that.
[SPEAKER_00]: So to the extent that this inflation task force actually recommends the actual solutions, there's no way anybody
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, the Fed is posturing as if it's going to change the game, as if it's not going to choose inflation anymore.
[SPEAKER_00]: As if now the Fed is serious, this Fed under walls is actually
[SPEAKER_00]: serious about inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to reexamine everything that Fed has done in the past.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to look at the pros and cons, the pluses and minuses, and maybe we're going to do something different.
[SPEAKER_00]: That is what's scaring the markets that the Fed made decide that it's not going to choose inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: it's going to fight inflation and choose a bear market in stocks, a bear market in real state, recession, a financial crisis.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I think when push comes to shove when it realizes or, you know, it comes to the point where that is the choice, I believe,
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... that wash will make the same choice as all of his predecessors because politically speaking that is the only viable choice he can make he will choose inflation he will choose currency debasement rather than forcing a default or massive constant government spending uh... a big recession and stock market decline it it's going to be business is usual but right now
[SPEAKER_00]: There is the potential that it's not business as usual, that there is no more fed-put.
[SPEAKER_00]: That wash is actually gonna put inflation as a higher priority.
[SPEAKER_00]: then all these other things and accept the consequences of finally that's why the mark and sold off today that's why the Dow sold off as probably of crypto sells off for whatever reason but everything sold off goal to is now goal was down about 70 bucks on the day at the low i saw was down about a hundred and ten dollars but
[SPEAKER_00]: about a half hour before the FOMC statement, gold was up 45 homes.
[SPEAKER_00]: That was about the higher the day, but it was positive all day until the Fed came out even more hawkish than the markets had anticipated and stock sold off the Nasdaq sold off the Dow everything was down.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if the Fed is actually serious about doing what Walsh is in
[SPEAKER_00]: The markets are going to go down a lot more.
[SPEAKER_00]: They should go down a lot more because the only way to restore price stability is much higher interest rates.
[SPEAKER_00]: Fifty basis points aren't going to cut it.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Fed is going to have to get medieval when it comes to rate hikes and that's something that hasn't been discussed at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now another point that Kevin Warsh made
[SPEAKER_00]: was that he rejected the whole idea of the Philips curve, which I agree with about a trade off between economic growth and employment.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he stated that as Fed chair, he is going to pursue policies so that we can have strong economic growth.
[SPEAKER_00]: low prices and strong employment and he said that those are not mutually exclusive that there's no reason that we can't have all three and he's right except the reason that we don't have all three and that we haven't had all three is because of the federal reserve
[SPEAKER_00]: the Federal Reserve creates inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we don't need Fed policy to engineer strong growth, low prices, and strong employment.
[SPEAKER_00]: That happens naturally in a free market, in a free market, capitalist economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what you get.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's why I advocate for free market capitalism.
[SPEAKER_00]: The reason we don't have that is because we don't have free market capitalism.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have too much garbage interference, and we have a central bank that creates the inflation, that undermines what the free market does, which is lower prices.
[SPEAKER_00]: A productive free market results in more supply.
[SPEAKER_00]: and lower prices by definition.
[SPEAKER_00]: The reason that prices go up is because the government through the central banks creates inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's created in order to enable fiscal profligacy.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the only way that the Fed
[SPEAKER_00]: could choose to not have an inflation is to force the government to balance the budget or, you know, cut government spending, act physically responsible, which I don't think Walsh has the stomach to do that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think anybody at the FOMC has the stomach to do that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's all bark and no bite when it comes to actually fighting inflation or restoring price stability.
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, in free market capitalism, we don't even have price stability.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have falling prices and that's even better.
[SPEAKER_00]: prices staying the same that's not the holy grail of economics i want prices to go down i want all the things that i need to get cheaper because that i can buy more of it or if the stuff that i need gets cheaper i don't have to spend as much money buying it that means i have more money left over to buy other stuff
[SPEAKER_00]: But when the Fed talks about price stability, they don't even talk about price stability anymore.
[SPEAKER_00]: That ship is sale.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're talking about 2% inflation, which is not stable prices.
[SPEAKER_00]: As prices they go up by 2%.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, warsch often talks about 2% inflation by saying he's focusing on what's at the left of the decimal point.
[SPEAKER_00]: which is the two.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what if there's a nine on the right?
[SPEAKER_00]: That's almost three.
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't care about the nine, the point nine and two point nine.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, somebody mentioned that to him and he said, for now, he still committed to 2% inflation where you have a zero on the right of the decimal point.
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't need the Fed to deliver what the free market would deliver anyway.
[SPEAKER_00]: We need the Fed to get out of the way, but the problem is what the Fed has really been doing is supplying the air in a bubble.
[SPEAKER_00]: What all these fed chairs with their main mission is ban has been to keep the bubble from deflating by supplying enough liquidity enough air so that it doesn't deflate so that we can have record high stock prices so that we can have these high real estate prices so that the banks don't fail.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't know, maybe Kevin Worst doesn't get that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he should because he's been at the Fed for a long time.
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is not his first, you know, rodeo when it comes to being at the Fed.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the first time he's, you know, leading the parade, but he's been marching in that parade for a long time.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if this actually is,
[SPEAKER_00]: a real game changer if he's going to break from the traditions that Alan Greenspan actually started if he's not going to just take that baton and run with it the way all of these other Fed shares have done.
[SPEAKER_00]: Then, you know, the consequences are going to be horrific for people who don't understand.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I hope that that's what he does because I understand that the collapse that's coming is necessary.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's productive.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is part of the healing process, it's part of what we need.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I just don't believe it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I've heard this stuff before, and I believe that when he's faced with the consequences, it's not going to happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: And do you think Donald Trump is going to sit back and let it happen?
[SPEAKER_00]: there's not a chance.
[SPEAKER_00]: There is going to be a meeting.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, he mentions now that he meets every week.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I guess this is a new tradition at the Fed or not a new one has been around.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think since the O8 financial crisis every week, the Secretary of the Treasury has breakfast with the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't like this buddy buddy handed glove kind of thing that, you know, we're working together.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want the secretary of the treasury to be buddies with the chairman of the Federal Reserve because the secretary of the treasury is really just a political position.
[SPEAKER_00]: His job is not really the treasury because first of all, the treasury is bare.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's the secretary of the debt.
[SPEAKER_00]: I've said that many times.
[SPEAKER_00]: The job of the secretary of the treasury is to continue to sell debt, to make sure that our creditors keep loading us money.
[SPEAKER_00]: But also to try to make the president look good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he never criticizes the president.
[SPEAKER_00]: You never hear the secretary of the treasury.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, imagine the deficit is exploding out of control.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we're running three and a half, maybe four trillion dollar a year, deficits.
[SPEAKER_00]: The deficit is skyrocketing right now on his watch, yet not a peep out of the Secretary of the Treasury.
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't say anything like, hey, this is a problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: We shouldn't be doing this.
[SPEAKER_00]: We need to get our fiscal house in order because we're looting the Treasury.
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't say anything, he just, he's just a rubber stamp.
[SPEAKER_00]: everything the president does is fantastic he just supports it all and he tries to you know put lipstick on all these pigs
[SPEAKER_00]: Why do we want this guy to be buddies with the chair of the Federal Reserve?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because he's going to be pressuring the Fed to do the same thing, to try to bail out Trump with cheap money.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, we just cut taxes, print money.
[SPEAKER_00]: Interest rates are rising.
[SPEAKER_00]: Print money by bonds.
[SPEAKER_00]: Keep interest rates from going up.
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's, you don't want that.
[SPEAKER_00]: You want the chairman of the Federal Reserve,
[SPEAKER_00]: to be at odds, to be, you know, to be the brakes, not, you know, the treasury is the gas now, we want, we want everything to be going.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's supposed to push back.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's supposed to try to force
[SPEAKER_00]: the government to act responsibly, not be the enabler of reckless money printing.
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is not a good thing, but he reiterated, yeah, we're having this great relationship that we, you know, there's pictures now, I guess the Secretary of the Treasury was maybe posted on Acts, or I don't know where he posted some photographs of the two of them having breakfast together.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't like that, and I've never liked that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Especially when they do, I join press conferences, and they try to coordinate policy.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the last thing that you want is to have these guys coordinating policy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the best question I think that wars was asked at the press conference.
[SPEAKER_00]: The best question.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was asked and it was a reporter with a British accent, I forget who she was, but it was a great question.
[SPEAKER_00]: I wish he didn't answer it.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he said, you know, given everything you're saying about inflation and your commitment to restoring price stability, why don't you just raise rates right now?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if everybody thinks that rates are gonna go up in a meeting or two, why not just raise them right now?
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's a good question.
[SPEAKER_00]: And his answer was, I'm not going to answer it.
[SPEAKER_00]: He basically said, I refer you to the official statement that I just read, which doesn't answer that question at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the reason that wars didn't answer the question was because he can't, because the reason they're not hiking rates now is because they're not serious.
[SPEAKER_00]: They want to talk about hiking rates in the future, but they don't want to hike them in the present.
[SPEAKER_00]: What they do want to do is set up a committee to study it.
[SPEAKER_00]: So they don't have to hike rates.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the longer they wait to hike rates, the higher they're going to have to raise rates to actually make a difference.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's already at a point where there's no way that we could raise rates high enough to actually be effective.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Fed would have to raise rates by several hundred basis points, and that's not even under consideration.
[SPEAKER_00]: What they are considering, again, is too little too late.
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, we got one more commercial, so stick around.
[SPEAKER_00]: We'd also be talking about Bitcoin and SpaceX.
[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of other things that are going on in the markets right now, so stick around and come and right back.
[SPEAKER_00]: Alright, so before I move on to some of the market action, just to talk a little bit more about the FOMC.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, first of all, getting back to these task force.
[SPEAKER_00]: Wars said that, you know, he's going to populate these tasks force with the greatest minds that we have, both inside the Fed and outside the Fed.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to recruit all the top minds.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, first of all, there are no great minds at the Fed.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if there were, when they have already solved these problems, if there's so much brain power at the Fed, why do we have such high inflation?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why has the Fed constantly got stuff wrong?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why did they not see the 2008 financial crisis coming?
[SPEAKER_00]: why were they blindsided to that?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why did they say that subprime was contained and there was nothing to worry about?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why did they say inflation was transitory?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why couldn't they see any of these problems if you had these great minds, these best minds?
[SPEAKER_00]: that we could just basically pick their brains to come up with all these new solutions.
[SPEAKER_00]: They bend there for a long time and they haven't come up with any solutions, just assembling them into a new task force isn't going to change anything.
[SPEAKER_00]: and the same thing with the best minds from the private sector.
[SPEAKER_00]: There are a lot of good minds in the private sector, but unfortunately none of them are going to be on these committees.
[SPEAKER_00]: I remember, you know, I talked about this in the past, but after the 2008 financial crisis was over, they of course had a committee to study why we had a financial crisis.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, they didn't really need a committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: They could have just bought my book, a crash proof, and they would have known why we had a financial crisis.
[SPEAKER_00]: Or they could have read a lot of stuff that I was writing, a lot of the commentaries.
[SPEAKER_00]: They could have listened to my mortgage banker speech that I did in 2006 predicting the crisis, explaining exactly why it was going to happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: So they didn't need to set up a committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: They tried to figure out
[SPEAKER_00]: why we had a crisis, all they had to do is look at the people who were predicting it and see what they said, I mean, because if you knew the crisis was coming and I wasn't just guessing that, oh, there's going to be a crisis, this is going to be a crisis.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was very specific about why there was going to be a crisis, what was causing the crisis, how it was going to play out, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: So I got all that stuff right.
[SPEAKER_00]: and one of the things I wanted is soon as I found out about this committee to try to study why we had a financial crisis.
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, I wanted to be on the committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was like, oh yeah, like, like, ordle, Arnold Horses, whoo, whoo, whoo, pick me, pick me, I want to be on that committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right, because I knew why we had a crisis, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I tried.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I reached out to a lot of people.
[SPEAKER_00]: They did not want me on the committee.
[SPEAKER_00]: There was a single person on that committee who warned in advance that a crisis was coming.
[SPEAKER_00]: So what is the purpose of a committee if none of the people that you picked to be on the committee had any idea that the financial crisis was coming?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because if you're trying to figure out why there was a financial crisis,
[SPEAKER_00]: wouldn't you want people who actually predicted it so you can say hey you knew it was coming what did you know that we didn't know right because the real purpose of the committee was not to find out why there was a financial crisis but to blame it on capitalism which is exactly what the finding of the bullshit committee was because the the recommendations
[SPEAKER_00]: where we need bigger government, we need more government oversight, we need more regulations, we need a more powerful fed.
[SPEAKER_00]: That is the conclusion that the government was looking for.
[SPEAKER_00]: They weren't looking for the real reason.
[SPEAKER_00]: we had a financial crisis.
[SPEAKER_00]: They were looking to use the financial crisis as a catalyst to use certain more power.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's exactly what happened.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm sure that to the extent that we actually constitute these task forces, the real goal isn't going to be to solve these problems.
[SPEAKER_00]: and whatever recommendations ultimately come out of these task forces are not gonna be the real solution because I'm sure the people from the private sector who join are gonna be your typical Wall Street guys and the last thing they want is a cure for inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: They want more inflation, they want the government to choose propping up asset prices, blowing up financial bubble, and they're going to sacrifice the middle class.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to sacrifice the average American to keep this whole thing going.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what the powers that be want.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what the Trump administration wants.
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't want a real economy, he wants a fake economy that he could take credit for.
[SPEAKER_00]: The last thing he wants is for everything to hit the fan on his watch.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was lucky that he got out of Dodge and lost the 2020 election.
[SPEAKER_00]: because the inflation that he helped create with Powell in 2020 didn't really show up in earnest until 2021 and 2022.
[SPEAKER_00]: Biden got the blame for that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But Trump was there when it was created.
[SPEAKER_00]: Biden was just there for the consequences.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: Biden made it worse.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nothing I'm saying Biden was a great president, but he was dealt a bad hand by Trump.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, sure, Trump got a bad hand from Obama who got a bad hand from Bush, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we've been passing these bad cards from President to President, but Trump was lucky in that he didn't have to bear the consequences.
[SPEAKER_00]: of the manifestation of the inflation that he helped create.
[SPEAKER_00]: He got to blame it on Biden and then say, hey, you see, bring me back and they'll have no inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the problem is we brought him back and we're gonna have even more inflation because he is pursuing the same inflationary policies that he pursued before.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the same inflationary policies that the Fed enabled under Biden.
[SPEAKER_00]: inflation is the tax.
[SPEAKER_00]: Another reason that the government chooses inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because wars, yes, inflation is a choice.
[SPEAKER_00]: The government chooses the inflation tax because it's hidden and because the government can blame it on somebody else.
[SPEAKER_00]: When they actually raise income taxes, the voters blame the government because it's obvious because they can see
[SPEAKER_00]: being pulled out of their paycheck.
[SPEAKER_00]: But no, what is Trump and what are all the Republicans taking credit for now?
[SPEAKER_00]: No tax on tips.
[SPEAKER_00]: No tax on overtime.
[SPEAKER_00]: No tax on social security.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, that's true.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those taxes have been lowered.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the waiters and waitresses, yes, they have more money now because they're not paying taxes on their tips.
[SPEAKER_00]: But
[SPEAKER_00]: They buy less stuff because the prices keep going up.
[SPEAKER_00]: We got retail sales numbers today and retail sales were up a lot more than expected.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the reason that retail sales are up, it's not because wealthy consumers are buying more stuff, it's because in populous consumers are paying more money to buy less stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: The necessities of life cost a lot more.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so we have to pay more.
[SPEAKER_00]: But we have always got me to think about how much bigger government is today than it was before COVID.
[SPEAKER_00]: But our taxes have been reduced.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have all this extra government.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yet we're paying lower taxes than before we basically double the size of government.
[SPEAKER_00]: What about the war?
[SPEAKER_00]: The Iran war, which of course they're talking about.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now there's this MOU to end the war.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a ceasefire.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're gonna reopen the straits.
[SPEAKER_00]: Look, a lot of this could all be BS.
[SPEAKER_00]: We haven't even seen the MOU yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we don't even really know what's in there.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't think anything's actually been accomplished.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think we've stopped Iran from developing nukes if they were ever going to do that in the first place I just think we've wasted a lot of money pissed off a lot of people Lot of people have lost their lives But we've borrowed a lot of money and spent a lot more money on the war yet nobody's taxes were raised Could you imagine if the government both Biden and
[SPEAKER_00]: and Trump had been honest with the American people and raised taxes to pay for all this government.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it didn't be a revolution, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: People would be up in arms if their taxes were up 50% or 100%.
[SPEAKER_00]: So instead of raising taxes, they print a lot of money, they create inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: The affordability crisis is a government crisis.
[SPEAKER_00]: The reason that everything is so unaffordable is because we have to spend so much money on government.
[SPEAKER_00]: Government is a much bigger burden today than it was five, six years ago.
[SPEAKER_00]: The public has to bear that burden.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're bearing it through higher prices.
[SPEAKER_00]: So every time they complain about how much food costs, how much energy costs, how much everything costs, they're really complaining about government.
[SPEAKER_00]: because if we hadn't dramatically increased the size of government and we hadn't printed all that money, prices would be a lot lower.
[SPEAKER_00]: The only reason prices are higher is because government is bigger, and that is how we're paying for government.
[SPEAKER_00]: Instead of higher taxes, we're paying higher prices.
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, that is a choice, because the politicians wanted to kick credit for the tax cuts and for all the government programs without accepting responsibility for the cost.
[SPEAKER_00]: So inflation allows them to do that.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's why they choose it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they blame inflation on greedy businessman, on Putin, on oil, on Iran, or whatever they want to do.
[SPEAKER_00]: They can always blame higher prices on somebody else without accepting responsibility.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the Fed does the same thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Fed, oh, we're going to have this new task force to kind of study what the drivers of inflation are when inflation by definition is an increase in the supply of money and credit.
[SPEAKER_00]: Who's in charge of that?
[SPEAKER_00]: The Fed drives inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nobody else now has got the government in the passenger seat with a hand on the wheel right they're driving it together.
[SPEAKER_00]: They work together to drive the inflation bus.
[SPEAKER_00]: But they don't need a task force to try to figure it out.
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, talking a little bit in the market.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I wanted to mention, because the last time I did this podcast, it was the day on Friday of the SpaceX IPO.
[SPEAKER_00]: And since then, SpaceX went a lot higher.
[SPEAKER_00]: It finally had a pullback today about 5%.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it got up well over $200 a share.
[SPEAKER_00]: It came out at $125, so the market cap was over $3 trillion, so I think the net worth of Elon Musk might have been about a trillion and a half or something like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he added like an extra $500 billion to his net worth in a couple of days, again, all this is on paper, but one of the main reasons that this stock is going so high in a trading
[SPEAKER_00]: is because the float is actually so small, even though it was the biggest IPO in history at what 75 billion raised, they only sold about 4% of the company, 96% of the company is still owned by the insiders and the early investors, mostly by Elon himself.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you've got this tiny amount of stock that everybody is buying and no one cares about the valuations.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like a mean stock.
[SPEAKER_00]: People just want to own it because they think it's going to the moon, and in this case, it actually is, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's SpaceX.
[SPEAKER_00]: So hey, you want to go to the moon by SpaceX.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so you've got all these retail investors, all this hot money, and then the big money, they all want everybody wants to go along for the right, look at all of the SpaceX stock
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, of course, she's got a horrible track record when it comes to stockpicking, and so that is a reason in and of itself to avoid SpaceX.
[SPEAKER_00]: But right now, it's just kind of all on momentum, because it's 4%, it is tiny, normally in an IPO, maybe it's 10 to 20% of the company that's getting sold.
[SPEAKER_00]: they barely sold any but because they sold it at such a high valuation right they raised a lot of money for selling a tiny sliver of the company but all of the shares are worth what this you know this 4% are trading at i mean obviously if
[SPEAKER_00]: the insiders try to get rid of a lot of stock.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no way the price could be this high.
[SPEAKER_00]: All these shares are locked up for now.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the public is bidding over a small relative supply.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's making it easier to really goose this market.
[SPEAKER_00]: But when SpaceX crashes back down to Earth, it's going to be a big big collapse.
[SPEAKER_00]: The only question is how high is it going to get before that before that crash?
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's anybody's guess.
[SPEAKER_00]: But meanwhile, I think it's going to
[SPEAKER_00]: out of a lot of other specular assets, especially crypto.
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin, as I'm speaking here, let me see where Bitcoin is, I think, I think,
[SPEAKER_00]: It's trading about, but 64,000, let me take a look at it.
[SPEAKER_00]: 64,150, just as I'm speaking.
[SPEAKER_00]: But as I've been saying, we're getting ready to break down.
[SPEAKER_00]: The leading indicator is micro strategy or strategy, excuse me.
[SPEAKER_00]: They should have changed the name to micro.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a more fitting name than strategy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because right now the strategy is just a sacrifice shareholders.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because
[SPEAKER_00]: on Monday again for the second week in a row I mentioned this on my last podcast but now for two weeks in a row strategy has purchased 100 million a Bitcoin and raised another 100 million in cash and it did that by selling common stock at a discount to an AV the opposite of what they used to do
[SPEAKER_00]: Strategies Original Business Plan, which at least made sense, was, hey, our stock is trading at a 50% premium, 100% premium, let's sell stock and take the cash and buy Bitcoin because that's a creative.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's how we came up with the concept of a Bitcoin yield.
[SPEAKER_00]: Which in and of itself was a bit deceptive.
[SPEAKER_00]: It wasn't a real yield in the traditional sense.
[SPEAKER_00]: It made it sound safer than it really was.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he was generating a game
[UNKNOWN]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_00]: over time, each share represented ownership of more Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the Bitcoin per share was going up.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the Bitcoin per share for two weeks in a row has gone down.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know what is going to keep going down if Salor continues to raise money to pay his dividend commitments on the prefers.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, looking at what's happened, exactly
[SPEAKER_00]: stretch today, closed at, oh, let me see.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it, it closed, I think, at 89 and a half.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is the lowest I've seen it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, eight, no, it closed at 89.
[SPEAKER_00]: Forget the half.
[SPEAKER_00]: It closed at 89.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you bought stretch,
[SPEAKER_00]: Last month, you paid $100 a share.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're already down to 11%.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's pretty much the entire year's yield.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I was talking about this.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was warning about the fraud in the marketing.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sailor was saying that retirees should put all of their retirement money into stretch because they can get into 11.5% yield.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, they've already lost 11% in one month.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're gonna have to weigh all year just to break even, assuming the price of stretch doesn't fall anymore.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the only way that strategy could get stretch back to 100 to get all those retirees out of jail, so they can get their principal back.
[SPEAKER_00]: At this point, he has to raise the yield to 13%.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because that is the current yield at $89.
[SPEAKER_00]: if you buy a stretch and you pay 89, you're getting a 13% yield.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the people who bought it at 100, they're not getting a 13% yield.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're still getting 11.5% based on what they pay.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now if strategy increases the dividend yield to 13%.
[SPEAKER_00]: Then the people who bought it at a hundred will be getting 13 percent.
[SPEAKER_00]: The people who bought it at 89 will be getting more than that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[SPEAKER_00]: They'll be getting, I haven't done the math, maybe 15 or 16 percent if they buy now.
[SPEAKER_00]: But here's the problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: If sailor raises the dividend that much, it's an even bigger burn on the common shareholders because they have to pay that.
[SPEAKER_00]: If he just leaves it at 11 and a half, then it's not any higher.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if he leaves it at 11 and a half, he can't sell any more.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because he can't sell it at 89.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has to sell it at 100.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he can't sell it at 100 unless he raises the dividend.
[SPEAKER_00]: so he's trapped in a position where he can't afford to raise the dividend, but if he doesn't raise the dividend, then the people who bought stretch are losing a lot of money, and they're going to get scared, and they're going to sell it, and the price is going to fall, but the problem is if he does raise the dividend, it makes it that much harder to sustain it, because the higher the dividend payment obligation is, the harder it is for sailor to meet it, the more common stock he's going to have to sell.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now he doesn't want to sell Bitcoin,
[SPEAKER_00]: The smart move would be to sell Bitcoin, to sell Bitcoin, to pay down debt, buy back stock, to try to get rid of the discount, but sailor can't sell Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_00]: He tried to sell 32 and the market imploded.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that, if that was a test, he flunked.
[SPEAKER_00]: He can't sell.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the only thing he can sell is common stock right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: He can't sell Bitcoin, because the market won't let him.
[SPEAKER_00]: He'll crush Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_00]: He can't sell any more preferred because you'd have to raise the yield too high.
[SPEAKER_00]: So all that's left is to sacrifice the common stockholders.
[SPEAKER_00]: The question is how much longer are the common shareholders going to stand for?
[SPEAKER_00]: Are they going to keep on marching to the slaughter and wait to lose or are they going to start to sell?
[SPEAKER_00]: and this whole thing is gonna spiral on itself.
[SPEAKER_00]: Strategy is gonna start collapsing and that's gonna weaken Bitcoin because the lower strategy gets the harder it is for sailor to sell strategy because the bigger the negative yield he creates.
[SPEAKER_00]: So now people are gonna start to think, oh you know what, maybe he's gonna sell Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then if he's gonna sell Bitcoin, well, the Bitcoin's gonna fall.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then strategy's gonna fall.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's whole thing is imploding.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right now it's unraveling, it is the death spiral that I warned about to podcast to go spirally out of control.
[SPEAKER_00]: But nobody is really talking about it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the things that's probably accelerating the move out of Bitcoin is the move into SpaceX.
[SPEAKER_00]: or people trying to raise money for other things.
[SPEAKER_00]: Remember, this is all risk money that's in crypto.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's going down, while there are other things that are going up that is now taking away the attention.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's almost so much capital.
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, if you want to sell your Bitcoin or your strategy, there's got to be somebody willing to buy it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, who the hell wants to buy it?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going down, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Who wants to hop on a train that's headed off
[SPEAKER_00]: track right you want to hop on the rocket that's go to the moon.
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin is not going there anymore.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
[SPEAKER_00]: So this whole thing is unplugging.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's why, you know, people if you still own any Bitcoin get the hell out.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you listen to my podcasts, I know people like to make fun of the fact, yeah, Peter Shift told me to sell Bitcoin when it was a thousand or 10,000.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know what, Bitcoin hasn't done anything
[SPEAKER_00]: the things that I got wrong, what about all the so-called experts who said Bitcoin would be 250,000 by now, 500,000 by now, a million by now.
[SPEAKER_00]: All these guys have been wrong for five years with their pioneer sky predictions, which were not really predictions.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was self-serving, talking their book, and
[SPEAKER_00]: They weren't saying what they thought was going to happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: They were saying what they wanted to happen and what they wanted the public to hear.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that was the reason that they were going to buy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because if you buy, you're going to get rich.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the people who bought aren't getting rich, they're going broke.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they want to get rich, they need to get rid of their Bitcoin and do something else.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so if you want to speculate, find something else.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you want to save haven, if you want a hedge against inflation,
[SPEAKER_00]: by gold, by silver, gold and silver, we're down today in reaction to a more hawkish fed, which has been the knee-dirt reaction.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, gold's around 4,250 and silver is around 68 bucks, 6780 down over two bucks today.
[SPEAKER_00]: You want to buy this?
[SPEAKER_00]: The market still don't get it.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's all talk, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Wars could talk to talk about price stability and fighting inflation, but he can't walk the walk.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to have to choose inflation, because in his mind, it's going to be the lesser of the two evils.
[SPEAKER_00]: There are no good choices here.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Fed has the picket's poison.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I believe it's going to pick the same poison that all central banks have been picking.
[SPEAKER_00]: That all of wars just predecessors, everybody can say, hey, I'm going to change the game.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to do the right thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to solve these problems just like when Elon Musk, he came the Washington DC.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to cut all the waste fraud in the abuse.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to lead those and Trump talked about, yeah, we're going to cut waste fraud in the abuse until push came the shove.
[SPEAKER_00]: They shoved a musk out, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: They didn't cut anything.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was all a bunch of talk because one person's waste is another person's gravy trade.
[SPEAKER_00]: There is a constituency.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nothing is in the federal budget by accident.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's put there by design on purpose.
[SPEAKER_00]: Somebody benefits from it and that's why it never goes away.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there are beneficiaries of inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: The government benefits Wall Street benefits a lot of people benefit from inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so it's not going to go away.
[SPEAKER_00]: Despite the fact that there are a lot of people who suffer from inflation, those people don't have the political cloud.
[SPEAKER_00]: that the people who benefit from inflation have, and so the interest of those who benefit from inflation is why it's going to continue, and he can make all the noise he wants, but at the end of the day, it's not a new game, it's just new players, it's the same game.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you want to take advantage of this pullback in golden silver, you want to take advantage of the pullback in the mining stocks, and fade this idea that
[SPEAKER_00]: There is a new sheriff in town that's got different, it's the same, they just, you know, it's basically the same guy, you know, the same sheriff, they just, you know, they change that to make up and all that stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: but it's all the same.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just like we don't have regime change in Iran.
[SPEAKER_00]: We got different people, but it's the same regime.
[SPEAKER_00]: We need a real regime change at the Fed.
[SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately, we don't have that with wars.
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, that's it for today's podcast.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, make sure and give me a thumbs up or a like.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're not currently a subscriber to my YouTube channel, make sure and subscribe.
[SPEAKER_00]: to that.
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, if you're not following me on X, I just moved over 1.5 million followers.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, I'm at over 1.52 million.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm really starting to add followers at a faster pace right now, which is great, because it means more people are reading my posts.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's the goal.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to have a bigger soapbox to stand on.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to get my ideas out there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because there's so many wrong ideas that are being, you know, perpetuated so many myths and falsehoods There's not that many of me out there and there's not that many people will of my perspective that have 1.5 million followers.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's other people
[SPEAKER_00]: other Austrians and other libertarians, they just don't have the following that I have.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I am in a position to be a lot more influential and you can help me not only by following me yourself, but by encouraging your friends, your co-workers, your family members to follow me too.
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, I'll be back again.
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably on Friday, I think, with one more podcast to wrap up this week because I think there's going to be quite a big reaction still.
[SPEAKER_00]: to the markets contemplating the potential of what the Fed may do based on what wars just said.
[SPEAKER_00]: Take care.