WEBVTT 00:00.031 --> 00:07.459 [SPEAKER_00]: Hi everybody, this is Peter Schiff and welcome to the Shift Gold Friday Weekly Market Wrap. 00:07.540 --> 00:25.088 [SPEAKER_00]: And if you are not a subscriber to this YouTube channel before I get started, make sure and subscribe, hit that button whatever it is to subscribe, like the video, leave a comment, a lot of times I forget to say that now I got it out of the way right out of the box. 00:25.749 --> 00:32.940 [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, it was a relatively quiet week in the precious metals, although gold did slip. 00:32.920 --> 00:40.952 [SPEAKER_00]: 1.8% on the week silver managed to eat out a small 0.2% gain. 00:40.972 --> 00:48.463 [SPEAKER_00]: So last night check, gold settled the week at 4,612 dollars an ounce and silver was 75,33. 00:48.804 --> 00:53.731 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, intro week silver did get down to about 71. 00:54.272 --> 00:56.515 [SPEAKER_00]: Didn't stay there long. 00:56.495 --> 01:09.829 [SPEAKER_00]: Silver seems to have a lot of support around $70 so I think it's not likely that we're going to get back into the 60s too many buyers trying to get in around that level the low 70s. 01:10.670 --> 01:13.435 [SPEAKER_00]: The mining stocks, though, were very weak. 01:14.096 --> 01:17.521 [SPEAKER_00]: The GDX was down six and a quarter percent. 01:17.541 --> 01:21.528 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a big move down, especially with silver positive. 01:21.548 --> 01:27.818 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, gold was down, but it really wasn't down, much considering where it's been trading. 01:27.798 --> 01:34.389 [SPEAKER_00]: the gdxj was down a little bit less at 5.4% so it was the bigger stocks that got hit a little bit more. 01:34.429 --> 01:37.494 [SPEAKER_00]: Although the gdxj doesn't have the smallest stocks. 01:38.236 --> 01:40.479 [SPEAKER_00]: The real juniors are not there. 01:40.559 --> 01:44.907 [SPEAKER_00]: Where you get exposure to those is with my goal fund, the Europe Civic goal fund. 01:44.967 --> 01:46.950 [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a great time to be buying that. 01:47.491 --> 01:51.578 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, the symbol on my goal fund, that is by Adrian Day, is E.P. 01:51.558 --> 02:00.268 [SPEAKER_00]: G, I, X, and you can get information and perspective on that on my website at yourapak.com where you can get it at any discount broker. 02:00.788 --> 02:04.733 [SPEAKER_00]: But you know, I think that interest in the metals is fading. 02:04.753 --> 02:13.302 [SPEAKER_00]: They're not talking about them anymore the way they were back in February when we were going straight up when gold was up up over 5,500. 02:14.563 --> 02:21.531 [SPEAKER_00]: There was a lot of discussion of gold, a lot of interest in gold and silver. 02:21.511 --> 02:37.326 [SPEAKER_00]: which as far as I'm concerned is actually better because I liked it better when everything was quiet and nobody was paying attention to the gold rally so my clients could keep buying more and more gold all of a sudden a lot of other people got interested in the prices started to spike. 02:37.306 --> 02:41.976 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think that we're going to resume this rally without the fanfare. 02:41.996 --> 02:49.853 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that'll be a perfect backdrop for a big increase because everything that is happening is bullish for gold. 02:49.913 --> 02:53.661 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, everything that's happened since gold started this correction. 02:53.641 --> 02:54.702 [SPEAKER_00]: is bullish for gold. 02:54.802 --> 03:05.053 [SPEAKER_00]: So the fundamentals for gold today in early May, this the first day of May, they're much better than they were in January or February when gold and silver prices were soaring. 03:05.414 --> 03:06.936 [SPEAKER_00]: The fundamentals have really improved. 03:07.276 --> 03:14.083 [SPEAKER_00]: And the fact that the stocks, the mining stocks, were so weak, that really is reflective of a loss of interest. 03:14.544 --> 03:22.973 [SPEAKER_00]: And part of the reason that investors are losing interest in gold and mining stocks is because the stock markets make a new highs. 03:22.953 --> 03:27.259 [SPEAKER_00]: All the major indexes saved the Dow Jones hit new highs. 03:27.425 --> 03:40.223 [SPEAKER_00]: Uh, the S&P up 1% on the week, but made a new high, the NASDAQ up 1.4% new all time record high, small caps or doing our making highs up 0.6. 03:40.283 --> 03:43.087 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the Dow was up, but not a new high. 03:43.127 --> 03:50.297 [SPEAKER_00]: We're still on the south side of 50,000, but investors are, you know, looking for risk. 03:50.337 --> 03:54.343 [SPEAKER_00]: They're buying these stocks because they are optimistic. 03:54.323 --> 04:01.956 [SPEAKER_00]: And when there's a lot of optimism, at generally you lose some interest in precious metals, which are defensive, safe havens. 04:02.016 --> 04:03.278 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, why are they optimistic? 04:03.318 --> 04:07.305 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I guess people assume that this war is going to be over soon. 04:07.345 --> 04:10.531 [SPEAKER_00]: And oil prices are going to come crashing down. 04:10.591 --> 04:11.813 [SPEAKER_00]: That's what Donald Trump says. 04:11.853 --> 04:13.416 [SPEAKER_00]: He says they're going to drop like a rock. 04:13.936 --> 04:17.783 [SPEAKER_00]: As soon as we finish this war, and that bond yields. 04:17.763 --> 04:18.724 [SPEAKER_00]: are going to come down. 04:19.425 --> 04:21.147 [SPEAKER_00]: But that's more hope than reality. 04:21.528 --> 04:24.351 [SPEAKER_00]: Oil prices keep rising and so do bonnials. 04:24.371 --> 04:33.462 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, oil was up pretty much on the week, although it was down today, but last night checked, it was about a hundred and two dollars in 50 cents on West Texas. 04:34.283 --> 04:36.346 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's up from about ninety five dollars. 04:37.627 --> 04:38.709 [SPEAKER_00]: We're finished last week. 04:39.169 --> 04:40.811 [SPEAKER_00]: So oil prices are not coming down. 04:41.312 --> 04:42.133 [SPEAKER_00]: They're going up. 04:42.991 --> 04:50.352 [SPEAKER_00]: Earlier in the war, back in early March, the stock market reacted negatively to rising oil prices. 04:50.433 --> 04:54.665 [SPEAKER_00]: Now it's just shrugging it off because it assumes that the prices are going to come down. 04:54.886 --> 04:56.410 [SPEAKER_00]: Same thing with bond yields. 04:56.592 --> 05:01.477 [SPEAKER_00]: We actually touch four and a half percent yield this week on a 30-year treasury. 05:02.238 --> 05:06.963 [SPEAKER_00]: We closed it about 4.97, but that's still up nicely on the week. 05:07.804 --> 05:25.722 [SPEAKER_00]: And the 10-year treasury at 4.38, we got to just above 4.4, but these are the levels around where the bonds were trading when Trump had to call off the reciprocal tariffs 05:25.988 --> 05:50.005 [SPEAKER_00]: uh... well it's getting it began fact it's going to be getting it be happy uh... and this is a negative the stock market investors are struggling it off but i think when the stock market investors throw in the towel on all this hope and the market gives in i think you're going to see a decoupling i think you're going to see golden silver rise when the market's correct initially they all went down together 05:49.985 --> 05:54.071 [SPEAKER_00]: The stock market went down and goal went down in tandem. 05:54.092 --> 05:56.095 [SPEAKER_00]: Everything was kind of opposite of oil. 05:56.776 --> 05:57.978 [SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of broken now. 05:58.138 --> 06:00.482 [SPEAKER_00]: Oil keeps going up, but the stock market's going up. 06:00.822 --> 06:02.445 [SPEAKER_00]: And gold's been drifting lower. 06:03.166 --> 06:10.778 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the next move is going to be that the stock market goes down and gold goes up and gold stocks go up. 06:10.758 --> 06:20.678 [SPEAKER_00]: Because again, war is bullish for gold, inflation is bullish for gold, and the way you pay for wars is by creating more inflation. 06:20.859 --> 06:22.221 [SPEAKER_00]: You expand the money supply. 06:22.442 --> 06:24.025 [SPEAKER_00]: You run bigger deficits. 06:24.666 --> 06:25.729 [SPEAKER_00]: That's what's happening. 06:26.089 --> 06:27.532 [SPEAKER_00]: It's all bullish for gold. 06:28.194 --> 06:28.935 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, 06:29.472 --> 06:48.122 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to get completely into it because I discussed it on my main podcast on Wednesday, which was the day that the Fed had its press conference following its decision to leave interest rates unchanged, a decision that, you know, surprise nobody. 06:48.102 --> 06:50.185 [SPEAKER_00]: But I talked a lot about it. 06:50.666 --> 06:55.773 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not going to say everything relevant to that conference on today's podcast. 06:55.813 --> 07:04.786 [SPEAKER_00]: What I will tell you to do is if you want some more information and get more of my thoughts, go and watch my main podcast if you haven't already done that. 07:04.866 --> 07:10.093 [SPEAKER_00]: You go to the 07:10.073 --> 07:11.978 [SPEAKER_00]: and watch the most recent podcast. 07:12.018 --> 07:18.874 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the title has to do with the president's bailout of spirit airline or potential bailout. 07:19.195 --> 07:21.540 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's actually a very small part of that podcast. 07:22.362 --> 07:24.247 [SPEAKER_00]: But that happened to be the title we went with. 07:24.287 --> 07:28.116 [SPEAKER_00]: But so look at that because I talk a lot about 07:28.096 --> 07:35.277 [SPEAKER_00]: Um, the press conference, but one thing I want to repeat because I think it bears repeating and I'm going to expand on it. 07:35.297 --> 07:41.194 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm going to talk and say some things that I didn't say on my last podcast. 07:42.541 --> 07:46.630 [SPEAKER_00]: It was pals, of course, his last conference. 07:46.690 --> 07:48.975 [SPEAKER_00]: He's no longer going to be fed chair. 07:49.035 --> 07:54.227 [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be an FOMC member, which is pissing off a lot of people who want him out. 07:55.009 --> 07:59.739 [SPEAKER_00]: But he's sticking around, but he's not going to be the chair, so he's not going to be doing the press conference. 07:59.759 --> 08:01.984 [SPEAKER_00]: So that was his farewell. 08:01.964 --> 08:29.457 [SPEAKER_00]: uh... Kevin warsh is going to be the next one to take the podium uh... and you know answer the softball questions uh... that are that are thrown out him by basically a bunch of economic interfaces uh... that are that are in there uh... you know i i i i i i i i joked on the last podcast that you know these are coveted positions to be in that room and ask those questions 08:30.348 --> 08:39.782 [SPEAKER_00]: And in order to be a Fed Correspondent and be in that room and question the FOMC, you've got to take a test on economics. 08:39.822 --> 08:47.613 [SPEAKER_00]: They give everybody a test on basic economics and only the people who fail the test get to go to those conferences and ask questions, right? 08:47.633 --> 08:50.397 [SPEAKER_00]: Because they don't want anybody there asking the tough questions. 08:50.878 --> 08:59.190 [SPEAKER_00]: At these conferences, in fact, I saw on X, a guy, I don't remember who it was. 09:00.132 --> 09:04.156 [SPEAKER_00]: He's given over 60 press conferences, Powell, during his tenure. 09:04.837 --> 09:11.063 [SPEAKER_00]: And he mentioned that not one person, during any of those press conferences, ask them about the money supply. 09:12.845 --> 09:22.454 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, probably one of the most important things you could talk about is the money supply for concerned about inflation, because the definition of inflation is an expansion of the money supply. 09:24.196 --> 09:28.080 [SPEAKER_00]: And Powell, and this is what I'm going to repeat, 09:28.853 --> 09:37.221 [SPEAKER_00]: how Brad, Brad, about what a great job the Fed did in controlling inflation up until the pandemic. 09:37.241 --> 09:50.273 [SPEAKER_00]: And like the only reason that we have an inflation problem now is because the pandemic caused a supply shock, and that was kind of like out of left field, and so the Fed wasn't able to deal with it. 09:50.353 --> 09:52.855 [SPEAKER_00]: But for that, everything was great. 09:53.396 --> 09:57.139 [SPEAKER_00]: And I called BS on that, and of course nobody in that room, 09:57.507 --> 10:04.864 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, understands, you know, that it's BS because they don't know anything about economic history or economics for that matter. 10:05.886 --> 10:16.090 [SPEAKER_00]: But the 40 years prior to Powell, I think was a disastrous track record for the Fed. 10:16.846 --> 10:27.817 [SPEAKER_00]: Look at this stuff that happened, particularly with the dot com bubble and the housing bubble and then the financial crisis and the great recession. 10:28.698 --> 10:45.655 [SPEAKER_00]: But if you look into history of the Fed during that time period, first of all, money supply, total money supply in 1980 was one and a half trillion, M2. 10:46.850 --> 10:53.076 [SPEAKER_00]: That is a huge increase over the time, now it's like 46 years. 10:53.276 --> 11:01.143 [SPEAKER_00]: But going back from 1980 to today, that's a 6% per year rise in the money supply. 11:01.383 --> 11:08.890 [SPEAKER_00]: That is a lot of inflation, 6%, imagine how much cheaper everything would be today. 11:08.950 --> 11:14.916 [SPEAKER_00]: If the money supply had an increased 10 fold, 10 fold, 11:16.280 --> 11:17.061 [SPEAKER_00]: in 40 years. 11:17.582 --> 11:20.866 [SPEAKER_00]: That is not a track record to brag about. 11:20.906 --> 11:22.389 [SPEAKER_00]: That is a disaster. 11:23.410 --> 11:27.956 [SPEAKER_00]: The country did much better under a gold standard when our money held its value. 11:28.597 --> 11:35.787 [SPEAKER_00]: If you want to know why the price of gold is up so much, it's because the quantity of money is up so much. 11:35.827 --> 11:43.098 [SPEAKER_00]: We have a lot more money chasing a smaller supply of gold and of everything. 11:43.138 --> 11:45.561 [SPEAKER_00]: That's why everything is so 11:46.115 --> 11:56.805 [SPEAKER_00]: when Palkey's blaming the recession on COVID and the supply shock, nobody asked them, what about the demand shock? 11:57.186 --> 12:01.190 [SPEAKER_00]: What about all the money that you printed in 2001 and 2002? 12:01.330 --> 12:08.036 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, the money supply increased about 50% during a Powell's tenure. 12:08.417 --> 12:12.200 [SPEAKER_00]: But almost all the increase happened in 2020, 2021. 12:12.901 --> 12:15.143 [SPEAKER_00]: That's why we had all the inflation. 12:15.578 --> 12:17.300 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not because of a supply shock. 12:17.340 --> 12:22.487 [SPEAKER_00]: It was because of the shock of all the supply of money that stoked all that demand. 12:23.128 --> 12:39.450 [SPEAKER_00]: Now you couple that with the hair brain policies coming out of a Congress and the president who at the time was Donald Trump who signed off on all these BS pay paycheck protection and stimulus plans, but the government did that. 12:39.470 --> 12:42.514 [SPEAKER_00]: You can't just blame that on the pandemic. 12:43.034 --> 12:47.942 [SPEAKER_00]: And first of all, most of the pandemic, it was all a government-over-reaction. 12:48.623 --> 12:50.807 [SPEAKER_00]: So it wasn't the pandemic that was the problem. 12:50.927 --> 12:53.852 [SPEAKER_00]: It was the idiotic way we dealt with it, right? 12:54.173 --> 12:55.655 [SPEAKER_00]: Countries like Sweden, right? 12:55.715 --> 12:58.841 [SPEAKER_00]: One of the few countries that that wasn't an idiot. 12:59.522 --> 13:05.532 [SPEAKER_00]: But you can blame the virus for the way we were dumb enough to react to it. 13:05.984 --> 13:15.041 [SPEAKER_00]: But then the policies, the combination of fiscal and monetary policy, but all those fiscal policy mistakes wouldn't have been made without the Fed's cooperation. 13:15.061 --> 13:25.680 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, before Congress and the President made those mistakes, Jerome Powell basically said, hey, stimulate the economy, run big deficits. 13:25.660 --> 13:26.582 [SPEAKER_00]: I got your back. 13:26.962 --> 13:28.605 [SPEAKER_00]: We're going to crank up the presses. 13:28.825 --> 13:31.350 [SPEAKER_00]: We're going to buy all the bonds that you guys want to sell. 13:31.931 --> 13:34.134 [SPEAKER_00]: So the Fed created all of that inflation. 13:34.455 --> 13:44.972 [SPEAKER_00]: But again, going back to the 40-year period that Paul says is such a great example of the Fed keeping inflation under control. 13:46.114 --> 13:51.904 [SPEAKER_00]: During the 1980s, the average annual rate of inflation has measured by the CPI. 13:52.745 --> 13:55.991 [SPEAKER_00]: was five and a half percent per year, five and a half percent. 13:57.092 --> 13:58.214 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, is that a success? 13:58.755 --> 13:59.577 [SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't sound like it. 14:00.358 --> 14:06.128 [SPEAKER_00]: There was only one year out of the whole decade where prices rose by 2% or less. 14:06.769 --> 14:11.918 [SPEAKER_00]: So 10% of the time, the Fed was 2%, 90% of the time they were way above. 14:12.623 --> 14:19.297 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, they didn't officially have this 2% target back then, but obviously it's a fetus saying inflation was under control. 14:19.698 --> 14:21.863 [SPEAKER_00]: They must be thinking that it was around 2%. 14:22.544 --> 14:24.849 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, clearly five and a half is out of control. 14:25.591 --> 14:29.299 [SPEAKER_00]: The 1990s was a little better, 3%. 14:29.971 --> 14:43.609 [SPEAKER_00]: uh... only one year where it was two percent or lower but what happened was in the late nineties that's when the basket commission uh... changed the methodology for comfort for computing to see p.i. 14:44.190 --> 14:56.687 [SPEAKER_00]: so the main reason that inflation was lower in the nineties specially that later nineties then in the early eight then in the eighties was because we cheated we rigged the system we changed the way we measure it 14:57.072 --> 14:58.174 [SPEAKER_00]: prices still went up. 14:58.234 --> 14:59.256 [SPEAKER_00]: We just didn't report it. 14:59.937 --> 15:09.776 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why the 2000s were even lower than the 1990s because that decade got all of the benefit of the Boschian commission rigging. 15:10.777 --> 15:15.606 [SPEAKER_00]: But even that decade inflation, the average 2.6% a year. 15:15.947 --> 15:17.089 [SPEAKER_00]: So still. 15:17.137 --> 15:24.568 [SPEAKER_00]: not 2% and in fact, there were only 2 years during the 2000s that inflation was 2% or lower. 15:24.728 --> 15:31.678 [SPEAKER_00]: So an improvement over the 80s and the 90s, but barely 20% instead of 10%. 15:32.439 --> 15:34.302 [SPEAKER_00]: There was only one decade. 15:34.889 --> 15:39.414 [SPEAKER_00]: where the Fed could claim that inflation was contained. 15:39.955 --> 15:45.481 [SPEAKER_00]: And that was the 2010 through 2020 when the average was 1.8%. 15:46.142 --> 15:49.486 [SPEAKER_00]: So just below 2% right near their target. 15:50.447 --> 15:54.612 [SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, they hit 2% or below 6 out of 10 years. 15:55.272 --> 16:01.099 [SPEAKER_00]: So 60% of the time, below 2% 40% of the time, above 2%, that was the only decade. 16:01.079 --> 16:01.900 [SPEAKER_00]: But why? 16:02.301 --> 16:04.365 [SPEAKER_00]: Why did defense succeed in that decade? 16:04.665 --> 16:10.816 [SPEAKER_00]: Because the decade began in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and the great recession. 16:11.337 --> 16:11.758 [SPEAKER_00]: That's it. 16:12.479 --> 16:15.845 [SPEAKER_00]: Those things should have lowered prices. 16:16.205 --> 16:21.855 [SPEAKER_00]: We should have seen a reduction in prices, but we didn't because the Fed created so much inflation. 16:21.835 --> 16:25.603 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, they created so much inflation over that time period. 16:26.224 --> 16:29.993 [SPEAKER_00]: Americans were robbed of the benefit of falling prices. 16:30.333 --> 16:34.883 [SPEAKER_00]: But now we're off to the races as far as I'm concerned. 16:35.015 --> 16:36.377 [SPEAKER_00]: on on inflation. 16:36.397 --> 16:44.551 [SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, the average inflation rate for the three decades before 2010s was 3.7 percent. 16:45.533 --> 16:55.830 [SPEAKER_00]: And even if you average in that decade, the 40 years average from where Powell said that inflation was contained and the Fed did a great job. 16:56.170 --> 16:58.474 [SPEAKER_00]: The average rate was 3.2 percent. 16:58.910 --> 17:07.727 [SPEAKER_00]: So now they're saying, you know, they're committed to 2% although it's not much of a commitment because we've been way above it for six years and these guys are still talking about cut rates. 17:08.167 --> 17:09.550 [SPEAKER_00]: They should have high grades. 17:09.590 --> 17:10.712 [SPEAKER_00]: They shouldn't have left them where they are. 17:10.732 --> 17:11.794 [SPEAKER_00]: They should hike them. 17:11.814 --> 17:19.669 [SPEAKER_00]: The fact that the Fed is not hiking rates, but that inflation is rising means real rates are falling, which is why gold needs to go up. 17:19.649 --> 17:27.179 [SPEAKER_00]: Traders are still fixated on nominal rates when they're not seeing the forest for the trees. 17:27.580 --> 17:41.038 [SPEAKER_00]: They need to be paying attention to real rates because that's what matters, not the nominal rates, but other things that happen during the 40-year period where pal thinks we did such a great job. 17:41.178 --> 17:44.222 [SPEAKER_00]: So the national debt rose. 17:44.253 --> 17:54.071 [SPEAKER_00]: from under a trillion to almost 40 trillion, a 40-fold increase in the national debt. 17:54.091 --> 17:56.636 [SPEAKER_00]: That wouldn't have happened without the Fed. 17:57.497 --> 17:59.100 [SPEAKER_00]: The Fed is responsible for that. 17:59.120 --> 18:02.667 [SPEAKER_00]: The Fed is the reason because the Fed enabled it. 18:04.148 --> 18:09.898 [SPEAKER_00]: Look, you know, in 1980, America was the world's richest credit donation. 18:09.918 --> 18:12.022 [SPEAKER_00]: Now we're the biggest debtor nation. 18:12.042 --> 18:14.807 [SPEAKER_00]: In 1980s, we ran huge trade surpluses. 18:15.247 --> 18:17.191 [SPEAKER_00]: Now we run massive trade deficits. 18:17.792 --> 18:19.996 [SPEAKER_00]: The Fed is partially responsible for that, too. 18:21.378 --> 18:24.283 [SPEAKER_00]: So it has a lousy track record. 18:24.415 --> 18:46.828 [SPEAKER_00]: it doesn't have this great history of serving the public uh... the way pal thinks and the way wall slings you know one of the things that wall said when uh... during his uh... hearing he was praising the fed all i i i you know how much he admires and respects the institution right i mean that's where he lost all my support uh... the minute he said that 18:46.808 --> 19:13.221 [SPEAKER_00]: uh... but you know people are hopeful only things are going to be better under walls though they won't be exactly the same as under pal under yelan under buy it it's all the same thing you know the game doesn't change they can shuffle around the players but it's all money printing quantitative easing artificially low interest rates nobody is going to do what needs to be done uh... to a vortice crisis um... i think paul city's right 19:13.201 --> 19:33.302 [SPEAKER_00]: right we're going to have a crisis he just thinks we should have an emergency plan to deal with it because he knows it's impossible to have a plan to stop it so all we can do is figure out what we're going to do afterwards well the problem is there's nothing we can do afterwards right and this is going to be such a massive problem with his debt 19:33.282 --> 19:44.515 [SPEAKER_00]: that a break the glass emergency plan is too little too late and it's going to be so bad that they don't even want to try to prevent it because even that will be horrific. 19:44.755 --> 19:47.919 [SPEAKER_00]: Just trying to stop the crisis is a crisis. 19:48.460 --> 19:51.804 [SPEAKER_00]: That's how bad this crisis is going to be and that's why no one's going to stop it. 19:52.625 --> 19:58.952 [SPEAKER_00]: At least of all Donald Trump, you know, I mentioned to the trade 19:59.118 --> 20:03.642 [SPEAKER_00]: And you know, Donald Trump's solution to the trade-offs since his tariffs, which of course don't work. 20:03.942 --> 20:10.388 [SPEAKER_00]: But he announced today, and he didn't just announce it, he is pleased to announce it. 20:11.229 --> 20:16.493 [SPEAKER_00]: He is going to raise tariffs on Americans who want to buy European cars. 20:17.094 --> 20:21.938 [SPEAKER_00]: Next week, to 25%, I think they're 10% now. 20:22.058 --> 20:27.403 [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's the rate from Europe, but they're going up to 25%. 20:27.637 --> 20:47.282 [SPEAKER_00]: So good news right any all European cars are now going to be you know more expensive But it's not just the European cars see if the European cars are 25% more expensive or you know whatever That means that competitors might be able to raise their prices 20:48.443 --> 20:52.790 [SPEAKER_00]: Uh, and so when you have less competition, you have higher prices. 20:52.830 --> 21:17.607 [SPEAKER_00]: So even Americans buying Japanese cars will probably pay a little bit more because the not as much as the European cars and less Trump slaps the tariffs on Americans for buying those, you know, when I was in Panama City a couple of weeks ago, I took a lot of Uber's and pretty much every Uber was a Chinese made car. 21:17.975 --> 21:19.296 [SPEAKER_00]: by a brand I've never heard of. 21:19.316 --> 21:21.839 [SPEAKER_00]: There were probably two or three different brands maybe more. 21:23.020 --> 21:24.421 [SPEAKER_00]: And I never heard of any of these. 21:26.083 --> 21:29.846 [SPEAKER_00]: But I talked to a lot of these Uber drivers about these cars. 21:30.747 --> 21:32.048 [SPEAKER_00]: And they're very nice cars. 21:32.068 --> 21:35.451 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, by sitting in the back of them, I mean, the leather felt really nice. 21:36.312 --> 21:37.713 [SPEAKER_00]: They were very high tech. 21:37.813 --> 21:46.041 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I was, you know, you getting the Uber blacks, you know, which is, you know, the little bit nicer of the 21:46.713 --> 21:52.980 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, they were luxury cars, and they were like, I don't even think they were 20 grand to buy them. 21:54.822 --> 21:59.708 [SPEAKER_00]: Americans are paying a lot more for a lot less, because we don't even let these Chinese cars into our country. 22:00.088 --> 22:02.431 [SPEAKER_00]: Because you figure, why don't we have these cars? 22:02.831 --> 22:08.518 [SPEAKER_00]: There's got to be tariffs, there's got to be stuff that is preventing us from getting these cars that they're all over Panama. 22:08.971 --> 22:11.674 [SPEAKER_00]: So who's losses it, right? 22:12.014 --> 22:21.485 [SPEAKER_00]: Americans who are having a drive around in more expensive lower quality cars, not luxury cars, they could be buying these Chinese cars. 22:23.768 --> 22:25.249 [SPEAKER_00]: But these tariffs are not going to work. 22:26.030 --> 22:29.735 [SPEAKER_00]: They're just going to weaken an already weak US economy. 22:30.035 --> 22:30.916 [SPEAKER_00]: That is the reality. 22:31.296 --> 22:33.679 [SPEAKER_00]: We have a weak US economy. 22:35.482 --> 22:40.916 [SPEAKER_00]: We have rising prices, we have stagflation that is going to get worse. 22:42.621 --> 22:45.508 [SPEAKER_00]: The markets are just ignoring all this. 22:45.877 --> 22:47.279 [SPEAKER_00]: focusing on nonsense. 22:47.339 --> 23:00.195 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, I've been talking about the biggest nonsense right going on with microstrategy and stretch and Bitcoin managed to e-cout a gain on the week. 23:00.756 --> 23:03.219 [SPEAKER_00]: It was up maybe close to 1%. 23:04.020 --> 23:07.905 [SPEAKER_00]: But there's a big move in strategy up 4 to 1% on the week. 23:08.486 --> 23:11.209 [SPEAKER_00]: All 23:12.067 --> 23:13.330 [SPEAKER_00]: on the day. 23:14.192 --> 23:22.911 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think people are excited because of so much how much stretch strategies able to sell because they're paying an 11 1.5% yield. 23:22.931 --> 23:25.637 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, a two good to be true yield. 23:25.870 --> 23:26.812 [SPEAKER_00]: and that's true. 23:26.892 --> 23:28.474 [SPEAKER_00]: It is too good to be true because it's not. 23:28.835 --> 23:29.616 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's a lie. 23:29.657 --> 23:34.244 [SPEAKER_00]: The yield can be paid so long as the Ponzi scheme can be perpetuated. 23:34.565 --> 23:37.851 [SPEAKER_00]: But at some point, you're running out of fools that are dumb enough to buy this stuff. 23:38.131 --> 23:41.317 [SPEAKER_00]: But in the meantime, strategy is selling a lot of this stuff. 23:41.337 --> 23:46.225 [SPEAKER_00]: And so maybe the stock market investors are excited about this popular new product. 23:46.205 --> 23:51.295 [SPEAKER_00]: But of course, if they keep paying the yield, it's going to destroy the value of strategy. 23:51.395 --> 23:56.084 [SPEAKER_00]: And if they stop paying the yield, well, it's still going to destroy the value, because stretch is going to zero. 23:56.385 --> 23:58.148 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's going to collapse strategy. 23:58.168 --> 23:59.511 [SPEAKER_00]: And it's going to collapse Bitcoin. 23:59.571 --> 24:02.356 [SPEAKER_00]: It's whole thing is a giant house of cards. 24:02.877 --> 24:07.065 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think that again, the fact that there's interest in this nonsense. 24:07.045 --> 24:19.205 [SPEAKER_00]: That is what is distracting attention again from gold and silver creating the buying opportunity for shift gold customers who don't have enough gold and silver to buy some more. 24:19.325 --> 24:28.740 [SPEAKER_00]: Be glad that you have so many fools that are being distracted by these bubbles because they're not competing with you to buy gold. 24:28.820 --> 24:30.623 [SPEAKER_00]: And you know, one of the things 24:30.603 --> 24:35.050 [SPEAKER_00]: that I think is also a positive for gold was the weakness in the dollar. 24:35.491 --> 24:38.636 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, the dollar index did reverse today. 24:39.617 --> 24:43.664 [SPEAKER_00]: But, in today, it got down to about 97.7. 24:45.166 --> 24:51.035 [SPEAKER_00]: Closed about 98.2, which was still down, you know, a little over half a percent on the week. 24:51.676 --> 24:58.467 [SPEAKER_00]: But when we got to 97.7, we wiped out all of the gains. 24:58.717 --> 25:25.365 [SPEAKER_00]: from the in the dollar since we started the war with I ran all of it and the rally that we had at the war was a very muted rally it was not much of a bounce for a supposed safe haven and if you go back to wars that we might have started you know 20 years ago 30 years ago. 25:25.818 --> 25:28.566 [SPEAKER_00]: that the bounce of the dollar was quite a bit bigger than that. 25:29.629 --> 25:32.035 [SPEAKER_00]: This was, you know, nothing. 25:32.918 --> 25:36.688 [SPEAKER_00]: And the dollar has already lost the entire game. 25:37.529 --> 25:47.419 [SPEAKER_00]: And the next thing that's going to happen is the dollar is going to start to crack because it couldn't rally on the war and all the fundamentals are negative for the dollar. 25:47.699 --> 25:52.564 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, people talk about, oh, bond yields are rising higher yields should support the dollar. 25:53.065 --> 25:56.528 [SPEAKER_00]: No, it's the short yields and they're not rising. 25:56.689 --> 25:59.592 [SPEAKER_00]: All they're doing is not falling because the Fed won't cut. 26:00.232 --> 26:02.895 [SPEAKER_00]: But the one thing we know they're not going to do is hike. 26:03.803 --> 26:13.274 [SPEAKER_00]: Meanwhile, inflation is going to keep going up, so real yields are going down, and bonds are going to get crushed, and when bonds are getting crushed, you buy gold. 26:13.874 --> 26:22.344 [SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't matter that the yields are rising, the yields are only rising, because no one wants to buy the bonds, because they know they're getting screwed on the real rate of interest. 26:22.744 --> 26:26.048 [SPEAKER_00]: And if no one wants to buy bonds, what are they going to buy instead? 26:26.028 --> 26:29.696 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, the most logical choice is gold. 26:30.257 --> 26:32.522 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's what the central banks are buying, right? 26:32.543 --> 26:33.545 [SPEAKER_00]: They don't want treasuries. 26:33.765 --> 26:34.647 [SPEAKER_00]: They don't care about that. 26:34.727 --> 26:38.295 [SPEAKER_00]: You'll just not high enough to offset the purchasing power that they lose. 26:38.857 --> 26:41.402 [SPEAKER_00]: And investors are going to be making the same conclusions. 26:41.783 --> 26:45.792 [SPEAKER_00]: They are going to be moving out of their 26:46.328 --> 26:49.553 [SPEAKER_00]: dollars out of their bonds in the gold. 26:49.953 --> 26:51.796 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you remember no one's talking about it. 26:51.856 --> 27:04.815 [SPEAKER_00]: I think I was at Morgan Stanley or some firm that that started to recommend that the 60 40 portfolio be 60 2020 where you cut your bond exposure in half and by gold, right? 27:04.835 --> 27:11.745 [SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of on the back burner now because, you know, gold's had a correction and scarred some people out, but I think they're going to 27:11.725 --> 27:36.332 [SPEAKER_00]: uh... to to the front of the stove when gold makes new highs and that's probably when you're gonna start to see uh... more talk gold will be able to quietly creep up back to new highs uh... maybe silver to although hundred twenty is a bit high but certainly over a hundred by the time gold uh... makes a new high but who knows i mean maybe silver will will rip again and and beat gold in new highs uh... but 27:36.498 --> 27:54.540 [SPEAKER_00]: I think once gold makes a new high, maybe has to get over 6,000, you're going to start to see a lot more money being focused, retail investors, especially if we get a crack in the stock market, a crack in the crypto market, nothing that happened in Bitcoin this week. 27:55.162 --> 28:00.170 [SPEAKER_00]: is they had the big conference in Las Vegas that I did not go to. 28:00.310 --> 28:04.717 [SPEAKER_00]: I went to it a year ago, it happened in mid-May last year. 28:04.757 --> 28:06.420 [SPEAKER_00]: This time it happened at the end of April. 28:07.302 --> 28:13.191 [SPEAKER_00]: But when I went there a year ago, what was all the rage were Bitcoin Treasury companies. 28:13.211 --> 28:16.276 [SPEAKER_00]: You had all these companies that were copycats of micro strategy. 28:16.677 --> 28:18.199 [SPEAKER_00]: I now now strategy. 28:18.567 --> 28:30.181 [SPEAKER_00]: Um, the big one they all talked about was Nakamoto, and that stocks down over 99% because if you bought it at the last Bitcoin conference, you've lost 99% of your money between conferences. 28:30.241 --> 28:35.507 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, the big talk this time was a digital credit and that's going to blow up. 28:35.527 --> 28:36.909 [SPEAKER_00]: This is worse than subprime. 28:37.089 --> 28:40.373 [SPEAKER_00]: This is this whole thing, you know, it's just a con. 28:40.522 --> 28:58.699 [SPEAKER_00]: uh... and more people are gonna lose more money in this and then then to to a bankman freed uh... and uh... and and and his scam this is the biggest scam but nobody wants to call it out because it's being uh... run by the the messiah of of crypto uh... michael sailor but i think that 28:58.679 --> 29:06.006 [SPEAKER_00]: During the second half of this year, we could see a big pullback and stocks, a collapse in crypto. 29:06.747 --> 29:14.494 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's an environment where investors are going to return to gold, the ultimate save haven, the ultimate store of value. 29:15.415 --> 29:27.606 [SPEAKER_00]: And I would continue to encourage the shift gold customers to keep buying gold, to keep buying silver 29:28.160 --> 29:31.426 [SPEAKER_00]: This shift gold app, you can download it at the App Store. 29:31.747 --> 29:33.750 [SPEAKER_00]: So now you can buy online. 29:33.770 --> 29:37.016 [SPEAKER_00]: You don't even have to go to the web and use the website. 29:37.076 --> 29:38.399 [SPEAKER_00]: You can go right from your phone. 29:38.739 --> 29:43.869 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, do it this weekend and buy some gold. 29:44.169 --> 29:46.894 [SPEAKER_00]: Buy some silver using the app. 29:46.874 --> 29:49.718 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not as functional yet for T-Gold, that's coming. 29:49.738 --> 29:51.040 [SPEAKER_00]: You can still buy T-Gold. 29:51.801 --> 29:55.246 [SPEAKER_00]: There in fact, you know, maybe it's easier to buy it on the website. 29:55.747 --> 29:57.089 [SPEAKER_00]: We haven't automated it all yet. 29:57.129 --> 29:57.910 [SPEAKER_00]: We're working on that. 29:58.271 --> 30:07.524 [SPEAKER_00]: All these things are coming to make it a lot easier for you to buy golden silver, but more importantly, ultimately, to make it easier to use it as a medium of exchange. 30:07.664 --> 30:11.049 [SPEAKER_00]: That's the key because the inflation rate is going to accelerate. 30:11.150 --> 30:16.257 [SPEAKER_00]: As bad as it was during those 40 years that I just talked about, it's about to get worse. 30:16.237 --> 30:28.757 [SPEAKER_00]: We're about to go off the charts when it comes to money supply growth and inflation because the debt crisis that Hank Paulson is worried about is probably going to hit sooner than he thinks. 30:29.278 --> 30:31.802 [SPEAKER_00]: And rather than break the glass, we're going to break the presses. 30:31.963 --> 30:35.308 [SPEAKER_00]: Because that's the only thing we can do is print money. 30:35.288 --> 30:50.015 [SPEAKER_00]: Fed comes in, buys all the bonds, everybody else wants to get rid of, and we're a washing dollars, money supply source, purchasing power crashes, and AI is not going to happen fast enough to give us a get out of jail free cart. 30:50.276 --> 30:58.731 [SPEAKER_00]: So you got to get yourself out of jail by buying gold silver now, and you can do that at shift gold. 30:58.711 --> 31:02.858 [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, again, that's it for this week's Friday market wrap. 31:02.878 --> 31:05.682 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'll be back again next Friday to do it again. 31:05.742 --> 31:06.844 [SPEAKER_00]: It's hit or mess. 31:06.924 --> 31:10.270 [SPEAKER_00]: I haven't, I haven't made the commitment to do it every Friday. 31:10.290 --> 31:11.732 [SPEAKER_00]: But I've done a lot of them. 31:11.752 --> 31:14.897 [SPEAKER_00]: And if I don't do it officially on Friday, 31:14.877 --> 31:32.717 [SPEAKER_00]: chances are I'm talking about gold and silver on my main podcast on my main YouTube channel or a chiff radio so if you don't see a Friday gold market wrap then make sure and check out my other YouTube channel and subscribe to both because if you're just subscribing to both 31:32.697 --> 32:01.557 [SPEAKER_00]: you're going to know and I'm always talking about the metals on x in fact between the last time I did this podcast I went over 1.4 million subscribers on x so the number of people that are following me continues to grow although I got a long way to catch Michael Sefeiler he's at 5 million now so he's about three times as many followers as me but you know maybe 32:01.537 --> 32:21.537 [SPEAKER_00]: followers and then sailor right maybe that might be when gold finally gets a little bit Really stretched when I get so many people following me because gold so high that I've that I've surpassed the the followers of of strategy and I of Michael Salor and I'm confident that one day I will pass it 32:21.820 --> 32:38.614 [SPEAKER_00]: uh... and people are going to lose interest in all that and all that crap and more and more people are going to start to be interested in gold and silver but before that happens right don't wait for the masses to get interested beef be glad that they're not and that just means lower prices for us by for now and have a great weekend