WEBVTT 00:00.031 --> 00:09.957 [SPEAKER_00]: Welcome this is Peter Schiff for the shift gold Friday gold market rap and what a week to wrap up 00:10.190 --> 00:23.656 [SPEAKER_00]: It was actually a big down week for gold and silver, but it was a big positive when it comes to the fundamental news that will be driving gold and silver prices much higher in the future. 00:23.756 --> 00:31.050 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, the news that we got today is pretty much exactly the news that I've been predicting that we would get. 00:31.823 --> 00:47.453 [SPEAKER_00]: Even though mainstream Wall Street advisors or economists had not seen this coming, and in fact many were predicting the opposite, everything is working out as I expected it to. 00:47.855 --> 01:13.592 [SPEAKER_00]: and all of this works to the benefit of golden silver and so even though golden silver prices were sharply lower on the day and then on the week, this is good news for people who want to buy more golden silver, which of course is what I recommend the people do especially in light of the news that came out this week that should have pushed golden silver prices higher. 01:13.572 --> 01:22.643 [SPEAKER_00]: but didn't because the traders who control the short-term fluctuations of the market don't understand what's going on. 01:23.423 --> 01:34.576 [SPEAKER_00]: Now gold closed at 4,540, that was down about 2.3% on the day and the weekly decline was 4%. 01:36.238 --> 01:39.462 [SPEAKER_00]: Gold still up though about 4.8% on the year, 01:40.623 --> 01:45.589 [SPEAKER_00]: But a lot of its gains were lost temporarily at least this week. 01:46.190 --> 01:51.257 [SPEAKER_00]: Silver got beat up a lot more down eight and a half percent today. 01:51.958 --> 02:00.308 [SPEAKER_00]: Closing at 75, 84, earlier in the week, in fact yesterday, Silver got as high as 89. 02:01.330 --> 02:03.913 [SPEAKER_00]: We were about a dollar away from 90. 02:04.450 --> 02:07.774 [SPEAKER_00]: We closed almost 15% below 90. 02:08.054 --> 02:09.737 [SPEAKER_00]: That is a huge move. 02:10.578 --> 02:13.742 [SPEAKER_00]: On the week, those silver was down 10 and a half percent. 02:14.523 --> 02:22.593 [SPEAKER_00]: Still has a 5% gain during this calendar year, but clearly most of the gain was lost this week. 02:23.434 --> 02:28.500 [SPEAKER_00]: Even though the fundamentals were a lot better when the week ended. 02:28.615 --> 02:40.910 [SPEAKER_00]: then they were when the week began at least a confirmation of those fundamentals, you know, the stock market shrugged off the bad news a lot better than the metals market. 02:40.930 --> 02:43.738 [SPEAKER_00]: That that was only doubt about 1% today. 02:44.258 --> 02:52.090 [SPEAKER_00]: And down maybe slightly almost unchanged, but down slightly on the week, still up about 2.4% on the year. 02:52.510 --> 03:00.302 [SPEAKER_00]: So not quite as much as golden silver, Nasdaq and S&P a little bit lower to more decline today. 03:00.322 --> 03:01.905 [SPEAKER_00]: S&P down one and a quarter percent. 03:02.245 --> 03:04.208 [SPEAKER_00]: Nasdaq down one and a half percent. 03:04.711 --> 03:10.722 [SPEAKER_00]: But on the week, the S&P was still slightly up, the Nasdaq slightly down. 03:11.383 --> 03:19.237 [SPEAKER_00]: But these indexes should have been more negatively impacted by the economic news, but they weren't. 03:20.039 --> 03:21.582 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think they will be. 03:22.884 --> 03:24.627 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that 03:24.725 --> 03:32.734 [SPEAKER_00]: the resolution of this will be with gold and silver prices rising and stock prices falling. 03:32.794 --> 03:38.561 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, a week of stock index today was the Russell 2000 down two and a half percent. 03:38.921 --> 03:45.929 [SPEAKER_00]: So that's a decent decline down 2.8% on the week, but still up over 11% on the year. 03:46.229 --> 03:52.116 [SPEAKER_00]: By the way, NASDAQ up 13% on the year, thanks to the bubble in everything AI. 03:52.096 --> 03:59.085 [SPEAKER_00]: And that also helped the S&P, which is up about 8% on the year, but these indexes should be down. 03:59.200 --> 04:02.346 [SPEAKER_00]: based on the economic news that came out today. 04:02.967 --> 04:22.542 [SPEAKER_00]: And of course, the worst economic news that's going to be coming out in the days ahead as we get further confirmation of all the bad news that came out today, oil prices, the big winner on the week oil closed at $105.40 04:22.522 --> 04:26.874 [SPEAKER_00]: part of what was driving gold down actually, but long-term that's bullish. 04:27.375 --> 04:32.650 [SPEAKER_00]: That's the highest I believe oil has closed since we started a war with Iran. 04:33.254 --> 04:56.798 [SPEAKER_00]: Um, but the big market mover on the week were bonds bonds got clobbered and the yield on a 10 year US treasury closed at 4.59% that is a one year high the last time it got up there was, you know, when the bond market went yippy, uh, following liberation day. 04:56.778 --> 05:02.527 [SPEAKER_00]: And the market started to tank back then and then Trump called off the reciprocal tariffs. 05:03.028 --> 05:06.293 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, the market should be tanking a lot more now, but they're not. 05:06.934 --> 05:08.577 [SPEAKER_00]: But that doesn't mean they won't. 05:08.958 --> 05:14.086 [SPEAKER_00]: But you know, while the media really focuses to the extent they even cover it, the financial media, I guess, does. 05:14.947 --> 05:18.533 [SPEAKER_00]: On the 10 year and talking about a one year high. 05:18.513 --> 05:24.761 [SPEAKER_00]: what's more significant is what happened in the 30 year because the 30 year you'll close at 5.12. 05:25.181 --> 05:29.827 [SPEAKER_00]: That is over a 19 year high, maybe a 20 year high. 05:30.568 --> 05:42.062 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, there was a bond auction a couple of days ago where the coupon on the 30 year treasury was 5% for the first time in 19 years. 05:43.964 --> 05:47.068 [SPEAKER_00]: Why is this more significant than what's happening in the 10 year? 05:47.825 --> 06:03.369 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, because the 30 year is more sensitive to the problems that are making bonds go down, which is inflation, you have 20 more years of risk when you go out that far on the curve. 06:03.389 --> 06:10.920 [SPEAKER_00]: So the fact that the yield curve is widening confirms what I've been warning about and is a bad sign. 06:10.980 --> 06:14.085 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, the yield on the, 06:14.150 --> 06:28.065 [SPEAKER_00]: 10-year treasury will hit a 19-year high when we get up to about five point, I mean, four point eight percent maybe or I forget. 06:28.105 --> 06:30.408 [SPEAKER_00]: We're getting close to to that level. 06:32.050 --> 06:34.212 [SPEAKER_00]: But by then, who knows? 06:34.312 --> 06:38.557 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we'll be at five and a half percent on the 30 year. 06:39.938 --> 06:43.482 [SPEAKER_00]: So this 06:43.681 --> 07:06.938 [SPEAKER_00]: The metal's market is that these higher bond yields are what a lot of the algorithms that trade in the metal's markets feed off of to sell gold and silver because hotter than expected inflation news, which is this is it's inflation that's driving yields. 07:06.918 --> 07:16.789 [SPEAKER_00]: And all of this makes people think that the Fed is less likely to cut rates and more likely to potentially high rates sometime in the near future. 07:17.870 --> 07:25.799 [SPEAKER_00]: But what everybody is missing, the bigger picture is not what the Fed might do with short term rates. 07:26.380 --> 07:30.985 [SPEAKER_00]: It's what the market is already doing with real rates. 07:31.117 --> 07:39.355 [SPEAKER_00]: Because real rates are collapsing, because inflation, and I'm going to get to that data again, inflation is soaring. 07:39.790 --> 07:42.132 [SPEAKER_00]: And so the Fed is doing nothing. 07:42.593 --> 07:46.496 [SPEAKER_00]: That is an easing because real interest rates are collapsing. 07:46.536 --> 07:50.900 [SPEAKER_00]: So it doesn't matter if the Fed adjust nominal interest rates a little higher. 07:51.321 --> 07:58.147 [SPEAKER_00]: That tweak is going to do nothing to close the gap between nominal and real interest rates. 07:58.287 --> 08:00.510 [SPEAKER_00]: And it's real interest rates that matter. 08:01.210 --> 08:08.397 [SPEAKER_00]: The nominal rate is actually insignificant. 08:09.288 --> 08:13.396 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, are you going to accept 10%, no, that's a 5% loss. 08:13.957 --> 08:14.918 [SPEAKER_00]: You're losing money. 08:16.020 --> 08:20.709 [SPEAKER_00]: So it's not the nominal rate that's important. 08:20.729 --> 08:22.212 [SPEAKER_00]: That's what these traders don't get. 08:22.352 --> 08:29.425 [SPEAKER_00]: But again, a lot of these traders still don't understand why interest rates are rising, because they expected them the fall. 08:30.206 --> 08:32.190 [SPEAKER_00]: I was kind of a lone wolf. 08:32.170 --> 08:36.475 [SPEAKER_00]: six months ago a year ago predicting rising long-term yields. 08:36.656 --> 08:42.443 [SPEAKER_00]: Most people thought the Fed would be cutting and that would be driving rates down and I knew that was not going to be the case. 08:43.324 --> 08:55.039 [SPEAKER_00]: I know that the bond market is losing confidence or the buyers of bonds are losing confidence in the U.S. Treasury and they don't want to buy. 08:55.137 --> 09:15.205 [SPEAKER_00]: and and this is what's going on and the driver is the runaway debt and the inflation and that is the best scenario for gold and silver they are inflation hedges if there's going to be more inflation then that's good for gold and silver if bond prices are falling 09:15.185 --> 09:17.969 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a sign that investors don't want to hold bonds. 09:18.190 --> 09:19.532 [SPEAKER_00]: They want to get rid of bonds. 09:19.552 --> 09:22.236 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, what are they going to buy when they get rid of bonds? 09:22.716 --> 09:24.098 [SPEAKER_00]: They'll buy gold and silver. 09:24.759 --> 09:28.004 [SPEAKER_00]: Gold and silver are a safe haven from bonds. 09:28.024 --> 09:30.769 [SPEAKER_00]: Because bonds are not a safe haven from inflation. 09:31.189 --> 09:34.094 [SPEAKER_00]: bonds get eviscerated from inflation. 09:34.534 --> 09:42.947 [SPEAKER_00]: And if investors don't want their personal savings to be eviscerated, they get out of bonds. 09:42.927 --> 09:46.132 [SPEAKER_00]: and they get into gold and silver. 09:46.232 --> 09:51.000 [SPEAKER_00]: So what's happening right now is not a reason to sell gold and silver. 09:51.521 --> 09:54.807 [SPEAKER_00]: It is a reason to buy gold and silver. 09:54.827 --> 09:59.775 [SPEAKER_00]: The people selling gold and silver traders, speculators, don't understand that. 10:00.416 --> 10:02.860 [SPEAKER_00]: Just like the people who were buying, 10:03.177 --> 10:13.717 [SPEAKER_00]: long-term US treasuries at 4% for example because they thought they were getting a great deal because the Fed was cutting and maybe they expected rates to decline dramatically. 10:13.757 --> 10:22.654 [SPEAKER_00]: Remember one point, the yields on those durations were under 1% in the early days after COVID. 10:23.005 --> 10:35.397 [SPEAKER_00]: Uh, but those levels are likely never to be seen again, even if the Fed does come back with massive QE, I don't think they'll succeed in driving long-term yields down to those lows. 10:35.417 --> 10:48.810 [SPEAKER_00]: So the people who expected bond prices to rise and yields to fall clearly don't understand the implications of yields rising instead of falling. 10:48.830 --> 10:51.072 [SPEAKER_00]: They think, oh, yields are going higher. 10:51.136 --> 10:52.940 [SPEAKER_00]: We should, we should sell gold. 10:53.320 --> 10:53.601 [SPEAKER_00]: Why? 10:53.641 --> 10:55.284 [SPEAKER_00]: What's so enticing? 10:55.304 --> 10:59.593 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, I can get 5.12% on a U.S. Treasury. 10:59.653 --> 11:04.904 [SPEAKER_00]: If I take 30 years of inflation risk, it's not worth it, inflation is going to be more than 5%. 11:05.565 --> 11:06.948 [SPEAKER_00]: You're going to have no return. 11:07.208 --> 11:08.711 [SPEAKER_00]: You're going to have a negative return. 11:09.212 --> 11:11.136 [SPEAKER_00]: I'd much rather own gold. 11:11.116 --> 11:23.473 [SPEAKER_00]: And of course, these rising interest rates in and of themselves are going to increase the budget deficits because the government now needs more money to pay the higher interest. 11:23.493 --> 11:29.722 [SPEAKER_00]: But it's also going to slow the economy by weighing down consumers and businesses that have debt. 11:29.742 --> 11:31.425 [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to lead to higher mortgage rates. 11:31.945 --> 11:38.895 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's going to diminish the revenue coming into the government and increase the expenditures going out. 11:38.875 --> 11:43.099 [SPEAKER_00]: So that makes the deficit bigger too, which is also bullish for gold and silver. 11:43.660 --> 11:55.851 [SPEAKER_00]: But what's the most bullish for gold or silver is all the money the Fed is going to print to try to stop bond yields from rising and the economy and asset prices from taking. 11:55.871 --> 11:58.734 [SPEAKER_00]: The only question is when does the Fed cry uncle? 11:58.754 --> 12:01.236 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they're already doing stealth QE. 12:01.657 --> 12:05.220 [SPEAKER_00]: They're already buying short-term duration pause. 12:05.200 --> 12:08.284 [SPEAKER_00]: but what they really need to do is by the long end. 12:08.384 --> 12:10.947 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, the U.S. government has been doing that. 12:10.987 --> 12:27.006 [SPEAKER_00]: The U.S. government in an effort to artificially suppress long-term rates has been borrowing money from the Federal Reserve effectively by selling the Fed short-term rates and then going out and buying back through its Treasury Buyback program, the longer. 12:26.986 --> 12:27.387 [SPEAKER_00]: rates. 12:27.828 --> 12:45.687 [SPEAKER_00]: This is the worst that you could do if you're trying to manage your fiscal situation because you're retiring the long-term debt that you should leave out there and you're taking on more short-term debt that's going to be problematic as interest rates rise and you have to roll it over. 12:45.667 --> 13:00.582 [SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, these yields don't even come close to compensating you for what you will lose to inflation if you lend the government money at these rates, and that's why the rates are going to keep rising because bond prices are going to keep falling. 13:01.303 --> 13:03.786 [SPEAKER_00]: And that is not negative for gold and silver. 13:03.806 --> 13:04.767 [SPEAKER_00]: It's positive. 13:04.787 --> 13:09.852 [SPEAKER_00]: The only question is when will clueless investors figure this out and speculators? 13:09.992 --> 13:11.033 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know. 13:11.182 --> 13:12.985 [SPEAKER_00]: but you got to make a while of sunshine. 13:13.786 --> 13:18.654 [SPEAKER_00]: And that means, you know, by golden silver, well, I don't understand what's going on. 13:19.215 --> 13:21.518 [SPEAKER_00]: Because this is a great opportunity. 13:21.538 --> 13:23.862 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, let me talk about the inflation news. 13:24.403 --> 13:29.190 [SPEAKER_00]: Some of this I already discussed on the podcast I did on Wednesday. 13:29.913 --> 13:33.324 [SPEAKER_00]: at my normal YouTube channel and my shift radio. 13:34.147 --> 13:42.775 [SPEAKER_00]: So if you didn't watch that one, you should watch it, even though there'll be a little bit of a repetition here, but that's an hour podcast, and most of the stuff I never even. 13:42.940 --> 14:05.638 [SPEAKER_00]: talked about or I won't even get to on this market up so you should go and watch that one as well and subscribe only by the way don't forget to like and subscribe to this video and this YouTube channel because most of the people who follow my main channel have still yet to subscribe to this channel. 14:05.658 --> 14:07.902 [SPEAKER_00]: But the news that I did discuss 14:07.966 --> 14:11.072 [SPEAKER_00]: on the other podcast was the CPI and PPI. 14:11.753 --> 14:14.057 [SPEAKER_00]: CPI did not come out hotter than expected. 14:14.839 --> 14:16.642 [SPEAKER_00]: It was bad as expected. 14:17.464 --> 14:22.313 [SPEAKER_00]: The monthly increase in consumer prices was 0.6. 14:22.985 --> 14:23.826 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a big number. 14:24.467 --> 14:30.356 [SPEAKER_00]: What does that annualize out to over 5% 6% inflation, 7% something like that? 14:30.797 --> 14:31.278 [SPEAKER_00]: Big number. 14:31.838 --> 14:36.125 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, they were looking for a big number and we got a big number, but that's not good news. 14:36.826 --> 14:41.533 [SPEAKER_00]: Year over year, up 3.8% prior month, year over year 3.3. 14:42.675 --> 14:47.542 [SPEAKER_00]: So not only are we well above 2%, but we are moving in the other direction. 14:48.203 --> 14:50.106 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not enough for the Fed 14:50.086 --> 14:53.129 [SPEAKER_00]: to just not cut rates, they need to hike rates. 14:53.749 --> 14:57.372 [SPEAKER_00]: And a quarter point, a half a point, that's too little too late. 14:57.813 --> 15:07.081 [SPEAKER_00]: We need dramatic increases, maybe 200 basis points, the Fed would still be behind the curve, but that might be a decent start, but there's no way that is going to happen. 15:07.161 --> 15:18.591 [SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, even the core, core CPI, throw out food and energy up 0.5 on the month, double the point two from the prior month, year over year 2.8. 15:18.571 --> 15:24.857 [SPEAKER_00]: Well above two headed in the wrong direction, but the worst numbers were the producer prices. 15:25.037 --> 15:38.690 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, those are more important actually than the consumer prices, because that's what's coming for consumer prices, because before consumers pay higher prices, the producers pay higher prices and then pass them along by raising their prices. 15:38.790 --> 15:45.456 [SPEAKER_00]: So, if you want to know what tomorrow's CPI is going to look like, look at today's PPI, 15:45.436 --> 16:14.278 [SPEAKER_00]: often overlooks the PPI it doesn't get the headlines until it shows up in the CPI but of course by the time it does well you know it's way too late to do anything about it in fact it's already too late for the fed to do anything about it the horses of long since left a barn on this one but listen to this number in April producer prices surged one point four percent in one month that's almost the entire two percent target 16:14.377 --> 16:15.599 [SPEAKER_00]: in just one month. 16:16.800 --> 16:24.590 [SPEAKER_00]: The prior increase, which was originally reported as up point five, that was revised up to up point seven. 16:26.112 --> 16:32.640 [SPEAKER_00]: So a horrible number year over year, 6% increase in producer prices. 16:33.241 --> 16:38.427 [SPEAKER_00]: That's the biggest increase in sometime in 2022, but it's going up from here. 16:38.558 --> 16:44.344 [SPEAKER_00]: And a month ago, just one month ago, the year over a year rate of increase was only four percent. 16:44.845 --> 16:50.110 [SPEAKER_00]: So a 50% increase in year over your inflation in a single month. 16:51.332 --> 16:53.254 [SPEAKER_00]: The Fed is so far behind the curve. 16:53.274 --> 16:55.977 [SPEAKER_00]: It can't even see the curve. 16:55.997 --> 17:00.942 [SPEAKER_00]: Think about that one point four percent and you'll realize what if that happened every month for an entire year? 17:01.262 --> 17:03.705 [SPEAKER_00]: What does that 70 17:04.090 --> 17:13.310 [SPEAKER_00]: This is going off the charts even if you throw out food and energy because if you want to blame all that on the war and the closing of the street, which of course is going to continue. 17:13.812 --> 17:19.905 [SPEAKER_00]: And of course, if you're going to blame high prices on the war, well, you've got to blame Trump because he's the one that started the war. 17:20.105 --> 17:42.214 [SPEAKER_00]: And as far as officer, there's no way to end this war, other than claiming victory when we haven't won anything and just allowing Iran to continue to control the straight and charge at all, because I think the only way we can actually win the war would be to have a boots on the ground invasion and then occupation of Iran, which I hope never happens. 17:42.194 --> 17:43.976 [SPEAKER_00]: But that's the only way I think we could win. 17:44.557 --> 17:47.700 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think winning in that case is even worse than losing. 17:48.281 --> 17:57.851 [SPEAKER_00]: So all Trump can do is pretend to win as he actually loses, because Iran will end up in a better position than they were before the war. 17:57.911 --> 18:01.095 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, they won't have as big a navy at an air force, but who cares? 18:01.415 --> 18:09.484 [SPEAKER_00]: They're going to be making money hand over fist, charging people up the nose to go through, to go through the straight. 18:09.464 --> 18:16.359 [SPEAKER_00]: And they're going to have more influence in the region, so we'll China, so we'll Russia. 18:16.399 --> 18:27.523 [SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, you know, I got to throw this out there, forget back on track, that big China summit, much to do about nothing, just a bunch of photo ops, yeah. 18:27.503 --> 18:30.327 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, China's going to buy a couple of hundred planes from Boeing. 18:30.607 --> 18:31.828 [SPEAKER_00]: That would have happened anyway. 18:32.329 --> 18:37.055 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if there was some behind the scenes, deals done for the Trump organization in China. 18:37.576 --> 18:41.301 [SPEAKER_00]: But anything that was accomplished could have been accomplished on a zoom call. 18:42.102 --> 18:48.570 [SPEAKER_00]: We didn't need to spend all that money, bringing air force one and other planes over there, bringing all the security detail over there. 18:48.890 --> 18:50.372 [SPEAKER_00]: It's just a photo op. 18:50.352 --> 18:54.800 [SPEAKER_00]: So Donald Trump can claim he's out there negotiating these fantastic deals. 18:55.180 --> 19:09.805 [SPEAKER_00]: He's not we're not getting anything nothing's being accomplished again It's all it's all it's all, uh, you know hat and and and no and no cattle Typical of what what Trump is doing, but anyway, let me get back on track. 19:09.825 --> 19:15.094 [SPEAKER_00]: So X food and energy Produce surprises were still up one percent 19:15.850 --> 19:22.076 [SPEAKER_00]: On the month that annualizes out to like 12 and a half percent inflation, not even county food and energy. 19:23.157 --> 19:31.885 [SPEAKER_00]: Year over year, the core, core PPI is up 5.2 percent, no impact from the war. 19:32.645 --> 19:37.630 [SPEAKER_00]: If anything, maybe higher food and energy prices should have pushed these core prices lower. 19:38.911 --> 19:45.537 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a big jump from the 3.8 percent year over year rise from just one month ago. 19:45.668 --> 19:47.850 [SPEAKER_00]: inflation is soaring out of control. 19:49.272 --> 19:53.897 [SPEAKER_00]: Golden silver should be flying because real interest rates are imploding. 19:54.798 --> 20:01.485 [SPEAKER_00]: But again, traders, algorithms are following the headlines, not the fundamentals. 20:02.206 --> 20:05.610 [SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, a lot of the traders don't even understand the fundamentals. 20:05.670 --> 20:06.691 [SPEAKER_00]: That's part of the problem. 20:07.011 --> 20:10.415 [SPEAKER_00]: But the fundamentals always work out in the end. 20:11.316 --> 20:15.000 [SPEAKER_00]: The last piece of inflation data that just 20:15.419 --> 20:32.432 [SPEAKER_00]: today that I didn't talk about on my normal podcast was import export prices and those of you who are longtime listeners will recall that early in 2021. 20:32.969 --> 20:41.679 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, everyone was still talking about, you know, transitory or, you know, uh, there's no need for the Fed to hike, inflation's under control. 20:42.039 --> 20:45.063 [SPEAKER_00]: They were looking at the CPI and it was still pretty benign. 20:46.124 --> 20:51.430 [SPEAKER_00]: I was pointing out import export prices to my audience saying, you got to look here. 20:52.011 --> 20:53.693 [SPEAKER_00]: This is like the early warning. 20:54.253 --> 20:57.677 [SPEAKER_00]: Especially since these numbers are not adjusted. 20:57.657 --> 20:58.859 [SPEAKER_00]: There's no he don't exist. 20:58.879 --> 21:00.302 [SPEAKER_00]: There's no substitution. 21:00.682 --> 21:02.886 [SPEAKER_00]: They're just the raw prices. 21:02.986 --> 21:06.252 [SPEAKER_00]: The raw import and the raw export prices. 21:06.953 --> 21:12.203 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, import prices were up 1.9% on the month. 21:12.904 --> 21:18.113 [SPEAKER_00]: That's almost your entire 2% inflation in just one month. 21:18.228 --> 21:22.272 [SPEAKER_00]: And the prior number was tweaked up from 0.8 to 0.9. 21:23.253 --> 21:28.058 [SPEAKER_00]: The consensus was for a 1% increase, which in and of itself would have been bad. 21:28.899 --> 21:31.441 [SPEAKER_00]: But it was almost 2% almost double. 21:32.643 --> 21:37.548 [SPEAKER_00]: Nobody expected that the range of expectations were from 0.8 to 1.1. 21:39.229 --> 21:44.995 [SPEAKER_00]: Year over year. 21:46.105 --> 21:46.926 [SPEAKER_00]: versus 2.1%. 21:47.046 --> 21:59.605 [SPEAKER_00]: Not only is this bad news for consumers who are buying these imports, but it also proves again that Trump was lying when he said that foreigners would eat our tariffs. 22:00.486 --> 22:12.484 [SPEAKER_00]: Because the only way for foreigners to eat our tariffs is to lower their prices by an amount equal to the tariffs because the tariffs are not imposed until the goods get to the United States. 22:13.274 --> 22:18.701 [SPEAKER_00]: So let's say there's a widget that we're importing from China that costs $10. 22:19.182 --> 22:22.646 [SPEAKER_00]: And now Trump puts a 25% tariff on it. 22:23.707 --> 22:36.404 [SPEAKER_00]: The only way we can still get the item for $100 and pay the 25% tariff is if the other country cuts the price of their goods, maybe down to 75 cents. 22:36.464 --> 22:38.286 [SPEAKER_00]: I am not doing the exact math. 22:38.519 --> 22:47.975 [SPEAKER_00]: But then if they take a 25% hit and then we imported at 75 cents and then they add the to the tariff, now we can get up to $1. 22:48.596 --> 22:52.022 [SPEAKER_00]: That's the only way that Americans avoid the tariff. 22:52.864 --> 23:00.477 [SPEAKER_00]: But the fact that import prices are up by 4.2% means that foreigners aren't eating anything. 23:00.997 --> 23:12.369 [SPEAKER_00]: Americans today are paying 4.2 percent more to import foreign products and then on top of that, they are paying whatever's left of Trump's tariffs. 23:12.389 --> 23:13.572 [SPEAKER_00]: So there's the proof. 23:14.615 --> 23:16.199 [SPEAKER_00]: Fartors are not paying the tariffs. 23:16.359 --> 23:16.720 [SPEAKER_00]: We are. 23:16.740 --> 23:21.310 [SPEAKER_00]: It's amazing that he can still get away with this and the Republicans let him get away with it. 23:21.330 --> 23:33.096 [SPEAKER_00]: Of course, you know, they let him get away with anything because he has so much control over the Republican party and if they end up outstanding Thomas Massey on Tuesday, he's going to have even more control. 23:33.076 --> 23:35.400 [SPEAKER_00]: which, you know, he's the best congressman we've got. 23:35.440 --> 23:47.378 [SPEAKER_00]: That's why Trump wants to get rid of him because he's the main guy that's objecting to all the deficit spending, all the undeclared wars, the tariffs, all the bad thing that Trump is doing, mass he's trying to stop it. 23:47.418 --> 23:49.802 [SPEAKER_00]: He's the only one with any guts to stand up to him. 23:49.782 --> 23:57.573 [SPEAKER_00]: Because everybody else is squivering in their boots because they're afraid of not getting reelected of Trump backing one of their primary challengers. 23:57.913 --> 24:08.148 [SPEAKER_00]: This is the attitude that's going to wreck the Republican party because the economy is going to be so weak and inflation is going to be so strong and the Republicans are going to have to take all the blame. 24:09.009 --> 24:17.781 [SPEAKER_00]: But as bad as the import numbers were, the export numbers were even worse, export prices. 24:17.896 --> 24:46.688 [SPEAKER_00]: in April, surged by 3.3% in one month, right, that would still be a big number if it took all year, because it would be way above like 2%, one month, 3.3%, that's more than double the 1.6% of the prior month, year over year, export prices are now 24:47.495 --> 24:59.689 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you got to go back to early 2022 to see a big a jump that high 8.8% that's almost 9% the prior month was 5.6. 25:01.013 --> 25:02.938 [SPEAKER_00]: Look at that trajectory. 25:03.442 --> 25:09.433 [SPEAKER_00]: How can the Fed still have an easing bias in the face of these inflation numbers? 25:10.054 --> 25:13.240 [SPEAKER_00]: Analyze 3.3, what the hell was that number? 25:13.821 --> 25:14.422 [SPEAKER_00]: Come out too. 25:15.103 --> 25:24.640 [SPEAKER_00]: You have, maybe that's the one that's like 70%, maybe the two is maybe 30%, I don't know, but it is a huge, huge number. 25:24.620 --> 25:47.742 [SPEAKER_00]: now some people might say well Peter why do we care about export prices because we're not paying those prices right that's that's our trading partners problem right they got to pay the higher prices well the point is that just about everything we export we also consume right we export agriculture products we have export energy you know they're at you know there's some products that we export 25:47.857 --> 25:58.954 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, if we have to charge 3.3% more for our exports, stands to reason we're also charge you more for what we don't export for what Americans buy. 25:59.315 --> 26:03.462 [SPEAKER_00]: Costs are going up across the board for American producers. 26:04.022 --> 26:10.393 [SPEAKER_00]: And so they raise their prices to all their customers, whether they're abroad or domestically. 26:10.873 --> 26:13.898 [SPEAKER_00]: But also, there are factors. 26:14.452 --> 26:18.098 [SPEAKER_00]: U.S. related factors that are driving up those prices. 26:18.158 --> 26:26.553 [SPEAKER_00]: So import prices are more controlled by external factors, plus the exchange rate of the dollar, which hasn't really changed much. 26:27.434 --> 26:38.653 [SPEAKER_00]: But our export prices have to do with internal price pressures here in the United States, because the stuff that we produce at export now costs more. 26:39.629 --> 26:43.816 [SPEAKER_00]: And because it costs more, it reveals that there is higher inflation. 26:43.836 --> 26:47.922 [SPEAKER_00]: And that higher inflation is not just going to bite the export markets. 26:48.062 --> 26:50.646 [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to bite the domestic market. 26:50.666 --> 26:59.861 [SPEAKER_00]: So I have fact in many respects, the export prices are more important because that 100% reflects US inflation. 27:00.442 --> 27:06.531 [SPEAKER_00]: Whereas import prices can reflect the inflation are trading partners. 27:06.562 --> 27:07.643 [SPEAKER_00]: are experiencing. 27:07.683 --> 27:08.744 [SPEAKER_00]: So this was it. 27:08.784 --> 27:28.265 [SPEAKER_00]: This was like trifecta of bad news on inflation that drove yield prices higher in bonds lower plus you got rising oil prices that are in this numbers, but they're not in the core numbers, which are lousy, but oil prices went up. 27:28.765 --> 27:30.146 [SPEAKER_00]: They're going to continue to go up. 27:30.807 --> 27:32.629 [SPEAKER_00]: Bonneos were going to continue to go up. 27:33.050 --> 27:36.433 [SPEAKER_00]: The only thing that won't continue 27:36.937 --> 27:41.546 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, you know, they were making good progress until today. 27:42.107 --> 27:45.294 [SPEAKER_00]: So took a big step back as far as the prices concerned. 27:45.514 --> 27:52.127 [SPEAKER_00]: But again, I'm nowhere near recommending that shift gold customers sell their gold or their silver. 27:52.107 --> 27:59.619 [SPEAKER_00]: So the fact that prices came down and we're not selling doesn't bother us, but what it does do is create an opportunity to buy more. 28:00.340 --> 28:05.388 [SPEAKER_00]: And if you don't own any golden silver, shame on you, but buy some now, take advantage. 28:05.708 --> 28:10.415 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, again, shift gold is open 24-7 over the weekends. 28:10.536 --> 28:15.263 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, you can go to the app store and download the shift gold app. 28:15.243 --> 28:28.494 [SPEAKER_00]: and you can buy golden silver this weekend while it's on sale on the app and you're buying it from people who are foolish enough to sell it because they don't understand that rising bond yields are not bad for gold. 28:28.915 --> 28:30.098 [SPEAKER_00]: They are good for gold. 28:30.820 --> 28:33.927 [SPEAKER_00]: The only yields that really count are short term yields. 28:33.907 --> 28:36.092 [SPEAKER_00]: if they were rising, that could be a problem. 28:36.413 --> 28:40.262 [SPEAKER_00]: But not if they're rising more slowly than inflation, then it's not a problem. 28:40.562 --> 28:47.879 [SPEAKER_00]: Then it's actually a benefit because if short rates are going up, less than inflation is going up, then real short rates are coming down. 28:48.400 --> 28:49.603 [SPEAKER_00]: And remember, 28:49.786 --> 28:51.368 [SPEAKER_00]: It's the real rate that counts. 28:52.049 --> 28:54.232 [SPEAKER_00]: The nominal is just for show. 28:54.974 --> 28:57.818 [SPEAKER_00]: The real rates are for dough, right? 28:57.838 --> 29:00.962 [SPEAKER_00]: And traders are just completely missing the forest for the trees here. 29:00.982 --> 29:03.145 [SPEAKER_00]: But that is giving us an opportunity. 29:03.726 --> 29:06.530 [SPEAKER_00]: Giving my customers a shift gold and opportunity. 29:06.931 --> 29:16.705 [SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, if you're also taking advantage of the gold mining stocks, the gold stocks got clobbered this week, the GDX today was down 7%. 29:16.904 --> 29:37.396 [SPEAKER_00]: GDXJ down 7.4 on the week the GDX was down 10.4% GDXJ actually a little less 10.2 year to date both indexes are still up but barely up just 2% on the GDX and 3% on the GDXJ that's less than the increase in gold silver. 29:37.496 --> 29:40.701 [SPEAKER_00]: You've got a great buying opportunity on Monday 29:40.681 --> 29:44.207 [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, maybe it won't be as good if these stocks open higher. 29:44.768 --> 29:46.951 [SPEAKER_00]: But you should be buying these things on Monday. 29:46.991 --> 29:49.956 [SPEAKER_00]: You can't do it over the weekend like you can buy physical gold and silver. 29:50.337 --> 30:04.039 [SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, if you haven't set up your T gold account at shift gold, go to T gold.com, set up an account and start filling up your wallet with some virtual gold and silver that you will need one day as a medium exchange. 30:04.272 --> 30:11.165 [SPEAKER_00]: Um, but on Monday, you can go and invest in my gold fund or any gold fund or any gold stock. 30:11.185 --> 30:16.255 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'll obviously partial and bias to mine, but Adrian Day runs it for me. 30:16.335 --> 30:17.297 [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's the best. 30:17.638 --> 30:18.740 [SPEAKER_00]: That's why I hired him. 30:19.581 --> 30:21.505 [SPEAKER_00]: I knew we'd do a better job than me. 30:22.008 --> 30:25.754 [SPEAKER_00]: So I hired him to be my stock picker, and that's what you need. 30:25.774 --> 30:32.024 [SPEAKER_00]: You need a great spot stock picker, especially in the junior minors, which is about a third of the portfolio. 30:32.204 --> 30:36.691 [SPEAKER_00]: So I would recommend, you know, EPG IX, that is the no-load ticker symbol. 30:36.711 --> 30:38.214 [SPEAKER_00]: You can buy it in a discount broker. 30:38.514 --> 30:41.078 [SPEAKER_00]: You can also buy the shares directly on the Europe Park site. 30:41.499 --> 30:46.547 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't forget, though, there's a prescription perspective on Europepack.com, read it. 30:46.527 --> 30:53.417 [SPEAKER_00]: All right, there's a lot more risk in buying gold silver mining stocks than there is in buying gold and silver, but I also think there's a lot more upside. 30:53.778 --> 30:55.099 [SPEAKER_00]: And so that's why I'm recommending it. 30:55.140 --> 30:58.404 [SPEAKER_00]: It's the upside potential relative to the downside risk. 30:58.424 --> 31:06.236 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's a enormous opportunity especially when you get selloffs like we got on Friday on good fundamental news. 31:06.636 --> 31:12.805 [SPEAKER_00]: It'd be one thing if gold and silver and the money stocks went down because there was actually bad news for gold and silver. 31:13.286 --> 31:14.087 [SPEAKER_00]: No. 31:14.067 --> 31:15.529 [SPEAKER_00]: they actually got great news. 31:15.930 --> 31:18.634 [SPEAKER_00]: You couldn't have asked for any better news for Golden Silver. 31:18.654 --> 31:20.377 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's lousy for the U.S. economy. 31:20.597 --> 31:21.899 [SPEAKER_00]: It's lousy for the consumer. 31:22.560 --> 31:24.503 [SPEAKER_00]: It should be lousy for the stock market. 31:25.004 --> 31:27.568 [SPEAKER_00]: But investors haven't figured that part out yet. 31:28.169 --> 31:31.975 [SPEAKER_00]: But you know, you guys don't have to figure it out because I already explained it. 31:31.955 --> 31:34.320 [SPEAKER_00]: And so you can take advantage of it by buying. 31:34.360 --> 31:37.588 [SPEAKER_00]: By the way, I know there's some bit pointers that watch this. 31:37.668 --> 31:40.194 [SPEAKER_00]: I think, well, Bitcoin held up better than gold. 31:40.554 --> 31:42.719 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, Bitcoin was down 3% today. 31:43.301 --> 31:44.203 [SPEAKER_00]: So not quite. 31:44.904 --> 31:50.537 [SPEAKER_00]: And on the week, Bitcoin was down 2.2% which is not as bad as gold. 31:50.720 --> 31:57.520 [SPEAKER_00]: But year to date, while golden silver are still positive about 5%, Bitcoin is down 12.5%. 31:58.864 --> 32:05.944 [SPEAKER_00]: So Bitcoin is having a lousy 2026 after having an awful 2025. 32:05.924 --> 32:07.646 [SPEAKER_00]: But you ain't seen nothing yet. 32:07.706 --> 32:16.594 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the back half of 2026 is going to be a lot worse for Bitcoin and other crypto than the front half. 32:16.835 --> 32:19.197 [SPEAKER_00]: But I also think that's when gold could really shine. 32:19.557 --> 32:22.280 [SPEAKER_00]: I think that Bitcoin and tech stocks. 32:22.320 --> 32:27.184 [SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, the main thing that's been holding up Bitcoin is the tech stocks and the AI bubble. 32:27.765 --> 32:32.910 [SPEAKER_00]: But a lot of air should come out of that bubble because the bond market should prick it. 32:32.890 --> 32:43.545 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, we haven't had a big reaction yet to a 5.2%, um, 30 year at a 4.59% almost 4.6% 10 year. 32:44.126 --> 32:53.059 [SPEAKER_00]: But as we keep rising and we put more and more distance between 4.5 on the 10 and 5 on the 30 at some point, 32:53.039 --> 33:03.281 [SPEAKER_00]: that is going to prick this bubble and the air is going to come gushing out, not just of AI stocks, but of crypto and bitcoin because those bubbles are intertwined. 33:03.301 --> 33:12.060 [SPEAKER_00]: They're all part of the same speculative mania and really being fueled in bitcoin by micro strategy or strategy. 33:12.040 --> 33:29.857 [SPEAKER_00]: But that's also going to blow up and their whole Ponzi scheme called stretch may be the print depend that pricks that bubble which is part of the overall Bitcoin bubble that in large part is being driven by the leverage buying of Michael Sailer on the part of strategy. 33:30.278 --> 33:31.500 [SPEAKER_00]: But anyway 33:31.666 --> 33:46.688 [SPEAKER_00]: uh... that's it for today's uh... shift-gold market wrap again go to the website you can see the address above my shoulder uh... shift-gold dot com take advantage today saturday sunday 33:46.668 --> 33:50.375 [SPEAKER_00]: you know almost 15% off yesterday's high in silver. 33:50.916 --> 33:51.797 [SPEAKER_00]: You got to love that. 33:52.699 --> 33:55.784 [SPEAKER_00]: Opportunity to buy it's still a beautiful looking chart. 33:55.904 --> 33:58.890 [SPEAKER_00]: Massive breakout looks to me like we're headed much higher. 33:59.451 --> 34:01.254 [SPEAKER_00]: Gold is very solid in here. 34:01.614 --> 34:08.727 [SPEAKER_00]: You know it's almost back down to 4,500, not quite, but that's over $1,000 off the February high. 34:08.707 --> 34:22.335 [SPEAKER_00]: I would be taking advantage of that and tell your friends, you know, if you've got friends that don't own any golden silver, now's the time to get them on board, let them also take advantage, a lot of people, you know, may see those declines that get scared out of the market. 34:22.455 --> 34:24.960 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I thought goal was supposed to be a safe haven. 34:24.940 --> 34:29.945 [SPEAKER_00]: Nothing's a safe haven every single day, but golden silver our safe havens. 34:29.965 --> 34:34.330 [SPEAKER_00]: The increase volatility that we're seeing now is a function of the breakout. 34:34.830 --> 34:41.357 [SPEAKER_00]: This is a consolidation with big volatility following major technical breakouts. 34:41.377 --> 34:47.743 [SPEAKER_00]: The most likely resolution to this patterns is a resumption of the uptrend that preceded them to new highs. 34:47.923 --> 34:50.526 [SPEAKER_00]: And so before we make new highs, 34:50.506 --> 34:52.872 [SPEAKER_00]: back up the truck and load up. 34:53.233 --> 34:54.917 [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, have a great weekend, everybody. 34:54.957 --> 35:02.876 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't forget, I'll be back with more podcasts on my regular channel and potentially another shift goal Friday market wrap. 35:03.177 --> 35:07.508 [SPEAKER_00]: So just make sure to subscribe to both and be on the lookout for emails. 35:07.889 --> 35:08.430 [SPEAKER_00]: Bye for now.