[SPEAKER_03]: Hey everybody, J.J. Cooper, Carlos Colossus of the Baseball America draft podcast, and we are back this week, really to talk about mock draft 3.0.
[SPEAKER_03]: We came out at baseballmerica.com on Monday.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know there was a little bit of talk on it about the hot sheet live show that we do on two days, but we're going to talk about it in the morning that we're just going to really kind of go through and use it, I would say, as a guide to kind of talk about some of the difficult decisions that teams are having to make and call us great to see, I'll kind of start with that, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: You, as you put this together, I'll start with a very open-ended question, which is compared to
[SPEAKER_03]: I feel like that there's a lot of on the college side.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's been a lot of movement because of unfortunate uncertainty, players who are hurt, players who haven't come back as strongly as we had hoped, players who are struggling like, what stood out to you as you put this guy, what has changed, you feel like kind of as we're, we use these kind of a track kind of the movement through the season, what it's what stood out to you.
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like this was the first time I felt some confidence that there's a clear group of players at the top of the board that teams just don't expect to fall.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, if you look at our last few mock drafts, like our version 1.0, we had rock, great Emerson 1.2.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's been consistent for all three that we've had.
[SPEAKER_02]: But beyond those names, there has been this sort of mix of players
[SPEAKER_02]: Just feels very unlikely to slide outside of the top 10, and so for mock draft purposes that does make it a little bit easier to work yourself down the board and the six players that I think are in that tier now in no particular order, I guess I'll go through the exact the mock order that we had on the site and again, a little order of the mock right there there's a lot more details where we have them on the mock draft on the site, so I'd encourage anyone who hasn't actually read that yet to check it out.
[SPEAKER_02]: in full, but Rock Chilowski, Brady Emerson, Vaughn Lacky, Jacob Blombard, Jackson Flora, and then Eric Booth Jr. Those feel like...
[SPEAKER_02]: the players that for any one of those and obviously the higher you go up the less likely they're going to be able to fall down the board.
[SPEAKER_02]: That group just seems really unlikely to slide out of the top 10.
[SPEAKER_02]: At all, it feels like all these players have floors in the six to ten range at worst.
[SPEAKER_02]: The one interesting name in that makes is Gio Rojas who we had at number six to the
[SPEAKER_02]: just because of the nature of high school pitching and because they're going to be a lot of teams that just are hesitating to take that profile in the top 10.
[SPEAKER_02]: If Gio doesn't go in this top range for a few teams that seem to be in on him, his range down the mock could be wider.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then beyond that, JJ, I really feel like once we get to eight, nine, ten.
[SPEAKER_02]: Throw it open, it's like any demographic is in play, depending on the team, like for the braves, we had a draft chat this week, and I had a braise fan asko, who are the braise gonna do it at number nine, and then at number 26, and I was like, I don't know if you know, tell me, because I hear the braise link to all four major demographics, I think, for the Orioles at seven, maybe it's a little bit easier to eliminate some demographics that they just don't tend to draft, but I do think- I think a high school pitcher at seven,
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't view any more clarity in the 8 to 30 range in this mock than I did in mock 2.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you know, which talked about a month ago, it's just a different collection of names, like who's posting recently, but we can get more into that if you want.
[SPEAKER_03]: I did want to ask, okay, so you said the top 6 and I don't disagree with you there, but I would actually say though, like I do feel like that we've also got a stratification there in some ways, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like you talked about it in the mock.
[SPEAKER_03]: I do feel like, okay, I'll ask it this way.
[SPEAKER_03]: Rock Chalowski, obviously, is in that top tier.
[SPEAKER_03]: Brady Emerson, we've talked about all years being in that top tier.
[SPEAKER_03]: Has Vaughn Lacky,
[SPEAKER_03]: Separated himself a little bit from the lumbarad, the booth, the flora tier below that, to move into the th- or see more of a guy who fits more than that other tier where it's like, fine, like he could go three, so I'm likely to go one or two, and he could go six.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like is he, because again, I will say like with that, like we can talk about a flora, flora's gonna go somewhere we think at the top six.
[SPEAKER_03]: We also don't expect him to go one or two.
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think that's probably I put one lacking Jackson Flora kind of in the same tier maybe it's this like secondary tier because I still like rock and greedy like yeah for instance, I don't see a scenario how either rock or greedy gets beyond three.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know whether player in the class I could say that for and so I think if you're trying to tear it out, it will be rock rock and greedy and like a tear of their own.
[SPEAKER_02]: After that, I think it is Von Lackey and then maybe Jackson Flora, I do think Jackson Flora and the two other high schoolers that we have in this elite tier.
[SPEAKER_02]: Jacob Blombard Eric with Jr. Those are the guys like I could easily see going a little bit further down And then I just think Von Lackey position College pedigree a lot of safety with the profile overall.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe the highest floor in this draft class I've talked to number of scouts throughout the spring who said hey if if Von Lackey
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just purely an average hitter hit and power.
[SPEAKER_02]: He still has all start upside.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that that ability to create value as a defender at catchers, is just going to give him a really high spot on the board that's like his worst case scenarios.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I do think that like he's probably, I mean, we have him ranked number three right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's probably pretty intuitive, but yeah, I do think he's just his hard to envision him sliding too far.
[SPEAKER_03]: We've always talked about.
[SPEAKER_03]: We talked about frequently on this, how teams at the end of the day love to come back to the safety of college bats.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the crazy part of this is, and we talked also talked on the college podcast this week.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like the hard thing to fully fathom with Georgia Tech is like, if I'm like he's having a great year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Everyone on Georgia Tech's lineup is having a great year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Their team is basically like a 330, 470, 630, like that's like their team production this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: So like it's kind of crazy, which is absurd.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like they're the best offense in college baseball, it's not close.
[SPEAKER_03]: But what I would say though is is if you took the catching part out of it,
[SPEAKER_03]: If you said that Von Lackey was like a left-fielder right-fielder who's okay out there is not going to provide a ton of defensive value But he's going to be able to play in the outfield
[SPEAKER_03]: I think as a bat, you would probably feel better about him than a lot of the guys who were not talking about his first rounders.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're talking about guys like you've got AJ Grossia at eight.
[SPEAKER_03]: You've got Chris Copian at nine.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think there's any argument you can make that I'd rather have Chris Copian who is really making an argument as a pure bat top ten pick who can play second base, but there's some question about that.
[SPEAKER_03]: And you're talking about Vaughn Lackey.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's a better hitter.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's got more power.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's I would say if you took the defense of value out of it, you'd still want Lackey and then you throw on top of it.
[SPEAKER_03]: Oh, yeah, by the way, Lackey's also should be able to catch for the next 10 to 15 years.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'd be curious what the split of Scouts or teams would be if you were just saying, hey, hit power combination would you rather have Chris a copian or Vaughn Lackey because I do think like,
[SPEAKER_02]: with Chris Akopian's weaknesses and his profile questions about where he's going to play questions about athleticism and questions about the arm.
[SPEAKER_02]: The fact that he still is considered in the top 10, I do think speaks to the strengths that he has as an offensive player.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I imagine you would get maybe more split campaigns on purely isolating that hip power combination of those two.
[SPEAKER_02]: The one that I found myself really just wondering, okay, why isn't he
[SPEAKER_02]: in a better spot.
[SPEAKER_02]: And we have him in the inside the top 10 in this mock draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: But Ryder Helfreick, the Arkansas catcher, I had him tied to the Rockies.
[SPEAKER_02]: I got the sense that the Rockies is maybe one of the earlier possibilities for Helfreick at this stage.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I kind of wonder why that's actually the case because Ryder Helfreick is having a really good
[SPEAKER_02]: There are some scouts who think he's the best defensive catcher in this class.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I'm probably a little bit partial to Von Lacky.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's just such an elite athlete, but we got split feedback in our preseason pull for scouting directors on who the top defender is in the class before the season started.
[SPEAKER_02]: Helferick won that category narrowly, actually over Von Lacky, which was a bit of a surprise to me, but Ryder Helferick has more rock power.
[SPEAKER_02]: then Von Lackey, and you're going to have to take on some of the swing and misconcerns, but when you look at the other college hitting options, college position player options in this class, I just feel like Ryder Helfer's profile is pretty compelling because he could also be a plus defender behind the plate, like analytically, this year is performed, this 50 seconds last year, 15 homers this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I wonder like is this a player who
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we're just now getting him into this range.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've had him mostly in the 10 to 20 range.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I even talked to some people who are like, oh, yeah, maybe he could slide into the 20s.
[SPEAKER_02]: As I look at these profiles and trying to compare and contrast them, it really feels unlikely to me that that many teams are going to pass on a potential above average defender with this sort of offensive impact at catcher.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've seen players of this profile go inside the top 10 before and I don't think that right or help Rick's misconcerning or suing and misissues are that egregious to weren't him sliding too too far in this class.
[SPEAKER_02]: So he's a name that I'm really curious if we continue to hear more.
[SPEAKER_02]: in this top end range.
[SPEAKER_03]: To put it in comparison, again, and I'm not trying to scout the Stateline, but I am like we're all talking about performance in addition to the scouting components of this all.
[SPEAKER_03]: You got AJ Groscia, you know, in the mock, he's going above healthric, and again, one of these is an outfielder who saw it, you know, but like defensive values not going to be the giant calling card for Groscia, as much as a catcher, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Like a catcher who's a
[SPEAKER_03]: Those are really hard to find.
[SPEAKER_03]: And if you sit like, well, who's having a better season, you could argue, Gracie, as at the plates, been a little bit better.
[SPEAKER_03]: But they have, basically, similar power.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, it's something where, yeah, I think health freaks one that it's still, it's interesting to see kind of like, I'm with you, I'm struggling to get like, what is it that I'm missing about what is not like about him.
[SPEAKER_03]: But there is, it seems like a little bit more skepticism there.
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, I'm actually curious.
[SPEAKER_02]: Before we get into the middle, I'm curious if you want to circle back to the giants at four because you talked about this, you tried to explain it.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if the giants themselves have created noise.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've kind of framed it that way in the hot sheet, but it's mostly there has been a lot of noise surrounding the giants and what they might do at four in the wake of their trade with the Guardian, sending Patrick Bayley to Cleveland.
[SPEAKER_02]: They got the 29th overall pick and the slot value and bonus pull money that comes with that pick, in addition to
[SPEAKER_02]: Matt Wilkinson, and basically as soon as that trade happened, the rumor circuit kicked off, and it was like, oh, could rock you last key, stay in California and get to the Giants.
[SPEAKER_02]: And basically, I feel like the last week of my life has been trying to explain why that is so unbelievably unrealistic, um, any thoughts on on that noise, should we just move on?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, let's just talk about it for a while into it.
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's not spend a lot of time because again, I don't like, yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know how, even if you were trying, let's say again.
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's just be in the world of the completely hypothetical.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is all hypothetical.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's no reporting to this.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is just throwing it out there, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: So let's say that for whatever reason Rockshowsky wants to go to the Giants and there's been some conversation with everyone is like I can get more money for the Giants than anyone else.
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's just say even like this is you have to start there to even have an argument for how he falls to fall, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: The argument for him to fall to fall to fall has to be
[SPEAKER_03]: What it means is you have to, as a, you have to put out a number that puts enough fear in the teams picking one, two, three, that they won't be able to sign you because if you say I want slot at one, I don't think that that's going to be enough to scare.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, if I'm the rays at two and it's like, okay, cool, hey, great.
[SPEAKER_03]: Right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Sounds great to me.
[SPEAKER_03]: We can do this.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know that'll be a draft bonus record, but that's not like.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's teams here, like, you know, the rays at two, I will just point out again, have more money to spend than the giants, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's no scenario.
[SPEAKER_03]: You could say, now theoretically, you know, you know, it's like, if you said, like, Rochalowski's a once in a lifetime talent and we're, again, and none of this is reporting.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is, I'm just... You're laying out for the streams of the situation to like, trying to, this is the same thing here, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: They're like, we want $14 million.
[SPEAKER_03]: We want a blow away the bonus record record.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, okay, that then you start saying that might be a little tough to do.
[SPEAKER_03]: Not that, again, the raise can do it.
[SPEAKER_03]: They have 19 million of owners pool.
[SPEAKER_03]: But, you know, at one, the White Sucks have 17.5 mil.
[SPEAKER_03]: They could do that, but they would probably be reluctant to.
[SPEAKER_03]: You would have to, like,
[SPEAKER_03]: At the end of the day, even still your fear at one or two, the only downside of this is it would hold the rest of your class hostage, up to the sign and period, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Because
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're trying to, again, again, to map out the 5% scenario of this, it would have to be, okay, a team of above them is too afraid to pick him because they know, this is going to go that right down to the line, you know, why are we actually thinking it's a bluff.
[SPEAKER_03]: We think that if we offer them, you know, 11.35, which would be the bonus record with full slot value at one, again, in this hypothetical world, you think that he's going to eventually say yes.
[SPEAKER_03]: But at the same time,
[SPEAKER_03]: as you drafted the rest of your draft, it would become much more difficult to do because if you don't sign him, you lose that slot value, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: So if you are thinking, again, this becomes a little easier if you think you're gonna sign a slot.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you think you're gonna sign him for the whole deal as we're gonna sign him for a million under slot, then it really does become a little bit of holding your draft hostage because the players that you want to sign
[SPEAKER_03]: I can't sign unless you sign the guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I'll just go back to if you're the raise it too.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're the twins at three and somehow rock you'll ask you's on the board.
[SPEAKER_03]: I promise you, I know that the twins are kind of in a situation right now with kind of a just promoted GM and all this.
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, the twins are actually one of the most interesting teams for this, because I believe the twins are one of two organizations that routinely does not go into that 5% overage.
[SPEAKER_02]: frequent be listeners will know every team can go 5% over their bonus pool and there are no penalties outside of paying a bit more tax on that overage, the almost every team regularly dips into that and pushes close to the full 5% if they can.
[SPEAKER_02]: If they don't, it's mostly just like, okay, some guys signed for a little bit less than we were expecting or the math, we gave ourselves some leeway, but the twins routinely will not go into that.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that maybe is it's funny that they're just the number three team in this scenario.
[SPEAKER_02]: But again,
[SPEAKER_02]: white socks raised twins all could offer bonus record deals for slot value and they could all afford to go well over that if they wanted to and it basically would come down to do you genuinely think that rock chelowski would pass on a bonus record to not sign with you and go back to school because he didn't make it to the giants.
[SPEAKER_03]: Let me throw another way up.
[SPEAKER_03]: If again, this is like so this is in the weird scenario where somehow he doesn't go wanting
[SPEAKER_03]: If Rochelowski doesn't, if you say we're going to save money on the bonus, not save money as far as spinning, but save money, spend elsewhere, and we're going to take Brady Emerson at two at one instead of two, and then Rochelowski goes out and is JJ Weatherholt, let's just say in a couple of years, you're running a real risk there as a front office because your fan base is going to be like, well, just an Abel.
[SPEAKER_02]: Two things, two things here that came up with this, as I was just talking to people around the industry and trying to lay out like what's most likely here.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I do think that element of, hey, it is far more risky to not take Rocholowski for an organization for the people who are making these decisions, because if you take Rocholowski and it doesn't work out,
[SPEAKER_02]: You're not going to get a lot of criticism for that pick.
[SPEAKER_02]: No, everyone thinks Rochelowski is the no brainer option.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's the clear number one guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been that for a year.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you take someone not named Rochelowski and it doesn't pan out, you're going to get crucified by your fan base, by everyone else in the industry, it will require a lot of confidence in your processes and confidence in your job security potentially to do that.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that is an element that
[SPEAKER_02]: however much you want to wait it into the decision making process is going to be a factor here and I talk with multiple people who are decision makers picking the other top of the draft to agree with this.
[SPEAKER_02]: The other factor that maybe is just worth mentioning because it does an impact like how creating savings might work playing players off of one another to get a better deal.
[SPEAKER_02]: Rock Chalowski, Grady Emerson, and Jacob Lombard are all wrapped by the same agency.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's not a scenario.
[SPEAKER_02]: And again, I'm not saying that the white talks are going in here trying to get the best deal that can get.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't believe that to be the case.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if they wanted to do that, it would be incredibly difficult to do so because the agency is not going to play their own players against one another.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to try and create the best deals for each one that they can.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that also adds
[SPEAKER_02]: even more of a challenge to get over in this hurdle.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I just want to add the last piece of this is like with the twins, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: So let's say in some weird world Rockshelowski still on the board at three, I will tell you right now the flip side of what you just talked about with the white socks.
[SPEAKER_03]: The lowest risk failed signing of all time is to twins at three drafting Rochelowski, the fan base basically that day of, which is a pretty angry fan base a little bit of the time I feel like these days.
[SPEAKER_03]: But that fan base is going to be like, I can't believe we got Rochelowski.
[SPEAKER_03]: The press conference at night that they say, like, did you have a deal in line?
[SPEAKER_03]: It's like, we don't know yet, but we plan to offer a very competitive offer.
[SPEAKER_03]: We hope to sign of whatever.
[SPEAKER_03]: In the worst case scenario, and Rock to Laoski does not sign for you at three, and you get picked for for next year, I do not see there being one ounce of blowback from anyone watching that at the fan, you know, the fan base level or anything where it's like, you blew this by you not signing rock.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, they would be like, hmm,
[SPEAKER_03]: you are very wise to take that chance.
[SPEAKER_03]: It didn't work out whatever, they'll go back in the draft next year and we're going to have a massive boat as full next year.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's not a down, like, that's where it's like, it's just if the giants were picking two.
[SPEAKER_03]: and they got this, then it would be like, oh, this is gonna be interesting because then it would be like, okay, if they have the largest bonus pool, is there a number that the white socks won't be willing to go, maybe the giant's will, or whatever.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just hard to imagine and getting to four.
[SPEAKER_03]: So that's our summary of the very top of this, but we're not gonna stop at the top.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're gonna keep going.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a lot to dive into in the middle.
[SPEAKER_03]: of this round of this mock draft 3.0 and we'll do that right if it's quick break.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So, Carlos, we're back.
[SPEAKER_03]: And we got kind of down to that eight, nine, 10 range.
[SPEAKER_03]: I kind of want to start, this is going to seem backwards, but I want to start and kind of the 20 range because I feel like that you get down to 19, 21, 23, 24, like,
[SPEAKER_03]: The thing that stands out about this, you have, like on the mock draft right now, we have Derek Creole going to the Guardians of 19.
[SPEAKER_03]: We have just the LeBron going to the Padres at 21.
[SPEAKER_03]: We have Mason Edwards going to the Cubs at 23.
[SPEAKER_03]: We've got Logan Redmond going to the mayor of the 24th.
[SPEAKER_03]: And there's other guys we could talk ace Reese to the Met set 27.
[SPEAKER_03]: I bring Liam Peterson to the Astos at 28.
[SPEAKER_03]: I bring all these up because these are almost across the board.
[SPEAKER_03]: Mason Edwards is not.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's a digital rising guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: But a lot of these guys are guys
[SPEAKER_03]: And I've seen years you wrote up in the mock.
[SPEAKER_03]: Most of the names we just mentioned there, if someone took one of those guys at 10, 11, we wouldn't be like, floor shots stunned.
[SPEAKER_03]: No, that's, that's what I wanted to lay out.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, it can kind of kick it to you is how much variance I have beholder uncertainty there is where it does feel like if you are picking eight
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't feel like you have that comfort level that the guy you pick at eight is a lot better than the guy you could pick at 22.
[SPEAKER_02]: That exact sentiment has been expressed to me directly by teams picking in these ranges.
[SPEAKER_02]: Teams at the top of that range may be a little bit disappointed, but that's the case and teams picking at the back with extra picks, kind of thinking, hey, however this winds up, we're going to get a talent comparable to a back of the top 10 talent.
[SPEAKER_02]: So depending on where you're at, let's see, they're positive or negative, but in terms of projecting the first round, it does lead to a lot of uncertainty and it also means that if you're tracking kind of the movement of players in our mock trust
[SPEAKER_02]: players are, it's framed as like players rising and falling, but I don't really believe there's as much of that consistent tracking.
[SPEAKER_02]: As much as it's just like, hey, there are teams in this range, 10 to 15 on the board who are interested in these profiles.
[SPEAKER_02]: After this range, teams are interested in other profiles.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so the players who we had initially in that 10 to 15 spot, whether they're really model heavy,
[SPEAKER_02]: kind of profiles that that that model teams like or whether they're really toolsy that the model teams maybe want to avoid in the traditional scanning teams are more inclined to take like I do think that
[SPEAKER_02]: And also, I think we talked about this a lot throughout the spring.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's just huge variance in how one team thinks of a like AJ Grossi who we mentioned, I think is a great example of this.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've heard that AJ Grossi is being scouted by all the teams in the back of the top 10 pretty seriously, and then I've also heard from some teams who wouldn't take him in the first round period.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think there are a lot of players like that in this draft, Justin LeBron, maybe the pinnacle example of this.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are a few potential landing spots still for him inside the top 10.
[SPEAKER_02]: But then you also look at his performance, what he's done this year, what he's done for the last three years, and understandably, there are some teams that just think there's too much hit to risk.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're not going to take him.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so placing Justin LeBron has been one of the biggest challenges in the draft, and also sorting out this call, like the college,
[SPEAKER_02]: players in this class feel almost more unsettled than the high school crop, which is strange to say, but I do think it's true.
[SPEAKER_02]: Because there are a group of high school players starting with Gio Rojas, Trevor Condon, Jared Grindlinger.
[SPEAKER_02]: All those guys, I feel pretty comfortable about them going somewhere in the middle of the verse round.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's not the gauge for the college players, for the college players, it really is a weekly, are you posting, who's performing down the stretch?
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that does matter with this year's group.
[SPEAKER_03]: We have Logan Redmond right now 24 for the mirrors and you lay out in the explainer and that's why it's again very useful to go to baseball market.com to read reading is read this because again, like one thing I'll say about this is this when this draft rolls around right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, I get it people look at mocks and like, okay, do you get deep pick right right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Justin LeBron's a perfect example of this you just laid out.
[SPEAKER_03]: the error bars, the very fine hints of variance.
[SPEAKER_03]: But he's like literally 25 picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: So if you mention him for a team at eight, but you don't put him there or nine, and then he goes, hey, you can be like, oh, you know, no, we absolutely heard that that was the possibility.
[SPEAKER_03]: We also know that there's the possibility.
[SPEAKER_03]: And by the way, the other part of this is is there's the bonus component of this, too.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you are just in LeBron representatives,
[SPEAKER_03]: And a team in the top 10 is willing to pick you.
[SPEAKER_03]: And they're saying, but you're going to take a haircut at this spot.
[SPEAKER_03]: That haircut looks really good, potentially.
[SPEAKER_03]: Because the haircut at eight, the haircut at nine, the haircut at 10 is better than the slot as you get to, you know, like,
[SPEAKER_03]: 22.
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, I think that is an excellent point to make and maybe hammer home as we close out here.
[SPEAKER_02]: I do think the way this draft has unfolded this year is going to lend itself towards teams all over the place hunting bargains because if you don't view separation with where you're but it's essentially like trading back.
[SPEAKER_02]: in the draft that's what it's like in other classes, but if you don't think your player, the top player on your board if you're picking 10 is much different than player 15, you're going to be hunting for deals because you want to create savings with an equivalent talent with your first pick, push that towards players you like later on, get a bigger bulk your mortality class overall.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that is going to become a huge factor, whether that's with college players who have maybe not performed to the level that they expected themselves to,
[SPEAKER_02]: underclock kind of bonus pool manipulation plays with with high school hitters.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that could be the case with this entire group of high school pitchers that could be the case every year we talk about how old teams are hunting deals and we approach the draft but especially this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that could create a lot of chaos and variance to the board because teams will un 100% be trying to find those deals.
[SPEAKER_03]: with Logan Rubin, like we just laid out.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like the variants in the air bars on him right now are so wide because Logan Rubin is not pitching at this moment.
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, if Logan Rubin, who UCLA, has said, now again, I could go into a whole thing about how, if you are UCLA,
[SPEAKER_03]: They have every incentive right now with the seating committee coming in the rankings and national seats and all that.
[SPEAKER_03]: There is no upside.
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, please understand, pure speculation here.
[SPEAKER_03]: Not reporting.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not saying Logan Redmond's hurt.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's not going to pitch again this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm saying if that was the case though, UCLA has no incentive to actually spell that out.
[SPEAKER_03]: because that might be the difference between them being the number one national scene did not.
[SPEAKER_03]: We have seen this in multiple college tournament seedings that, you know, we saw it in football a couple years ago where Florida State was undefeated, but they lost their quarterback.
[SPEAKER_03]: And because they knew he was out for the years like, nope, you don't make it into the playoff.
[SPEAKER_03]: We've seen it in basketball where it's like, yes, I know that they had the resume to do it, but look what happens since they're lost their star player.
[SPEAKER_03]: They're not nearly as good.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not saying that he, but I'm saying like if Logan Redmond doesn't pitch the rest of the year, obviously I would say where you have him at 24, it might be even the aggressive side potentially.
[SPEAKER_03]: At the same time, if Logan Redmond like comes back and pitches throughout the entirety of the postseason and leads UCLA to Omaha and has a ret louder or a Paul schemes like you know, or a gauge wood like effort in Omaha,
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, he's putting his way too low, you know, like for where he'll be, but we just don't know right now.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like that's a guy where it's like, we're, yes, we are in May, but who knows what's going to actually, like, on the field happen and how that's going to affect this.
[SPEAKER_03]: If we were talking five weeks ago, which we were about Tegan Cumes, it had been like, yeah, I mean, I don't think that he's been as disembrating as maybe it's being made out to be.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're coming off of a week.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're taking Coon's looks like is this guy going to end up being the number two guy in this class from the college pitching side.
[SPEAKER_02]: The college pitching really has been like, OK, who's turn is it this week?
[SPEAKER_02]: That's really how it's felt a lot the last several weeks.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I imagine for for everything all the reasons you just laid out there, I think it continued to to be the case moving forward.
[SPEAKER_02]: Because Cam Flookie, if he comes back and starts pitching well, he could easily be, oh, Cam Flookie will put him right in that right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not.
[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's going to come down to health.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to come down to performances down the stretch.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to come down to who shoves in the big outings when all the scouting he is into watching for conference tournaments into regionals.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be fascinating to track and we'll try and keep you guys up to date with with everything that's going on and
[SPEAKER_02]: how the board is shaking out as we move up to the draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is a 3.0, I think we tend to get to six or seven total.
[SPEAKER_02]: The frequency will be increasing here as we get a little bit closer.
[SPEAKER_02]: So there are a pain to do.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are struggle to do.
[SPEAKER_02]: I want to express just the amount of uncertainty that does come once we get outside of the top 10, but we are talking to as many people as we can and trying to put together a best forecast for the first round.
[SPEAKER_02]: So.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's the useful thing to lay out here, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Like the mock draft, I get it that's why we're saying you need to read the reporting that is in there is more important in a lot of cases of the name, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Because you're laying out that right now, there are so many players that you have especially when we get into 20s on this list, the 30s on this list, where you're like,
[SPEAKER_03]: This guy could end up being a second pick guy for a team with a lot of bonus pool.
[SPEAKER_03]: Or he could be a first pick guy for a team picking higher but with low bonus pool.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the thing with a lot of that is we're talking about guys where it's like, okay, if you,
[SPEAKER_03]: we just laid it out.
[SPEAKER_03]: You said like there's a lot of almost like trading down this happens, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Like if you are picking at the top 10, especially the back of that top 10, and you're like, there's no one here who like, we are absolutely shopping for the best combination of talent and deal we can find because we think that there are 10 guys who aren't that different as far as how we line them up on our board.
[SPEAKER_03]: Well,
[SPEAKER_03]: Part of that, where the second part of that very much is, and we've got a supplemental first round pick, or we pick very high in the second round, or whatever, like the way you laid it out to bring it back to the Giants, like, okay, yeah, Rockshelowski, not getting the four, but if you get a Logan Schmidt with that pick that you just picked up, mm-hmm.
[SPEAKER_03]: You've now, if you say, well, what did you, I mean, like lay that out for someone like, if you are the giants and in this scenario as you lay it out, so at four, they get lumbar, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: And so which is a hop of the draft talent, that is not that you've gone cheaper or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_03]: We just said, he is 100% in that top tier, but they now have money to spend and at 29,
[SPEAKER_03]: they're landing another guy who's really another, not just first round talent, but clear first round talent, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, Logan Schmidt is a guy who I think has real landing spots anywhere in the 10 to 30 range.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so if you're getting a guy in Jacob Lombard who has some of the biggest peer upside in this class, overall, and then you're pairing that with a top three high school pitcher in the class in Logan Schmidt, I mean,
[SPEAKER_02]: Jerohoss, breaded me, me, less seemed to be ahead of him in terms of luck in it pitching, but I really don't think the talent gap between those two is significant to Logan Schmitt.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been tremendous all spring.
[SPEAKER_02]: He throws hard.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's done a nice job improving his second areas.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this is a, you're basically picking up this pick and I mean, it kind of makes sense you get you pick 29.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have multiple first round picks.
[SPEAKER_02]: You went up with multiple first round talents, but without this trade, I
[SPEAKER_02]: You're, if you're the Giants, you're probably never sniffing Logan Schmidt because he's probably going to go in between their first and second round picks.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that is just the much more likely scenario of how the Giants are going to create value with this trade in this draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that was just one potential scenario.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, couple more like to get it back to the, you know, they were going through all, nope.
[SPEAKER_03]: I, before we wrap up, there were the other thing that we're going to look at is there are a couple of these, there are college guys who could go at the back of this, you know, into that 30 to 40 range, who are still really hard to line up and we'll do that after this one more break.
[SPEAKER_03]: So Carlos, we get to the very back of this list, the 30s.
[SPEAKER_03]: is kind of a, I would say, performance over tools, skills over tools, kind of guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's getting 432.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's hard to hit 432 in the U.S.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's, you know, he doesn't strike out.
[SPEAKER_03]: At the same time, he's not particularly physical.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's not particularly like, you're not like, he's not a second-base for like, well, he's playing second-base, but you can really sit him back over to short in pro ball, kind of thing.
[SPEAKER_03]: I feel like though, when I look at see him at like pick 37 in the mock, I feel like that's like getting a guy like that, like where you got Rocky's at 37 getting him, getting for the Dodgers, you have Dodgers getting Eric Becker who kind of throw in that same group too.
[SPEAKER_03]: Eric Becker was a guy coming into the year was thought to be very much a potential first from pick.
[SPEAKER_03]: Right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Tools are not that, you know, loud, they're either.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, you got Daniel Jackson also going to the Rockies.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, the Rockies have a lot of picks back here.
[SPEAKER_03]: I feel like those are three guys who all are for different reasons, kind of, maybe a Vicula and Jackson more than Becker.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think kind of know a little bit that Becker is kind of, but is a Vicula, like, this here range of outcomes guy or is it something where the lack of tools probably means he's going to be that 30 to 40 range guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I've definitely heard that he could go inside the first round in the back of the first round.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that when you're looking around at the just lack of college hit tools in this class, this is an area where he has a clear advantage on most players.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you wanted to say that Jared and Vincula had the best pure hit tool in this college class, I think that is a defensible take to have.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you believe that, you think, okay, well, he maybe isn't the most toolsy.
[SPEAKER_02]: player in the world, but he's a college middle and fielder, we think he's going to play a premium defense of position, we think he can play that position fine.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not going to have a ton of power, but if you look around at the hitters that do have power in this class, there's just a lot of hit concerns, hit risks.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you're a team that just does not want to take on, hit risk with your first round pick, if you want to feel safe and comfortable that you're getting a player who's going to be productive, I think Jared had been killed at a certain
[SPEAKER_02]: He could easily go inside the 20s.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's probably also the case with Daniel Jackson.
[SPEAKER_02]: maybe have a little bit more tools there, different profile.
[SPEAKER_02]: Entirely, but these are two college performers who just because we haven't right outside of the 30s does not mean I can envision a scenario where they're going higher.
[SPEAKER_02]: I really think it's the case for everyone that we have.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe outside of Luke Williams, I think Luke Williams, at number 32 of the Cardinals is more of like, hey, I want to kind of associate Luke Williams with the Cardinals.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have a ton of picks as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: They could get creative in how they order their players, kind of like the Braves did a year ago with over slot and underslot deals.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, Luke Williams may be able to be a little bit surprising, but every other player that's mentioned here in the 30s, including the college guys, folding in the high school guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got players like Aden Ruiz, shortstop out in New York to the Yankees, um, maybe the hundred eats who you've right in your right up.
[SPEAKER_03]: You say like, it's not crazy to think the hundred eats could go significantly higher than that.
[SPEAKER_02]: No, it was even the case where like I had hundred eats in the 30s range on my board and I was like, man, like,
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like this is too low, and I'm like asking around, like, hey, should I have 100 detires at this stage?
[SPEAKER_02]: And some people are like, yeah, you should.
[SPEAKER_02]: Other people are like, no, like given his medical questions, like that's there.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I just feel like this maybe is just reiterating the variance of this class as a whole.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think it stops at 30.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's expanded down, maybe into the 40s.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are even players that are not on this mock.
[SPEAKER_02]: Both Lawrence is maybe the most obvious one in South Carolina.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think Boleroon's is going to be really hard to sign at a college, but I also think he's being scouted in a range where I don't know exactly what this number is, but there are teams all throughout the back half of the first round that are scouting him really heavily for their first pick, so there's just a huge collection of players that have a large range.
[SPEAKER_03]: That, okay, last question I'll ask you, then kind of summarize this.
[SPEAKER_03]: I feel like that this is 100% a draft where it's like, okay.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you said, where do you want to be in this draft?
[SPEAKER_03]: I do a world picking one or two.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's the first part because you feel like we have a very clear top two who are considered top talents.
[SPEAKER_03]: But more than that, if you don't have that, which not a lot of teams have that.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's better to have three picks in the 20 to 45 range than it is to have a pick in the 8 to 10 range.
[SPEAKER_03]: Is that fair?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think if you specifically say the 8 to 10 range, once you get there, I'd rather have the volume for all the reasons we mentioned.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think for me it's top three.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like if I can get Chalowski or Emerson or Lacky, it may be I could even expand it out to the top five or six because I do think that top tier has separated themselves.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, once you're outside of that range, you probably do just want.
[SPEAKER_02]: more picks, more bonus pull money so you can take more shots at a lot of these guys who are difficult to separate.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's probably fair.
[SPEAKER_02]: Cardinals, being a pretty good drafting situation.
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, it says Rocky's picked back to back.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are Rockies.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep.
[SPEAKER_02]: Rockies picking at 10 and then what is it?
[SPEAKER_02]: 36 and 7.
[SPEAKER_02]: 37 and 38.
[SPEAKER_03]: 37 and 8.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think they could be in a good situation there.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, the rays of, you know, like they're back at 33 after picking it too.
[SPEAKER_03]: So they can do a little bit of both of this.
[SPEAKER_03]: Mm-hmm.
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, he said pirates have a lot of picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like there's, you know, there are some teams that they kind of fit that.
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's, but that is a perfect way to wrap this up on the baseball America draft podcast for this week.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're getting closer.
[SPEAKER_03]: Still two months.
[SPEAKER_03]: Oh, I mean, we say we're getting closer.
[SPEAKER_03]: It drives into an calibrated to old draft, where it's like, we're getting credit to conference tournament time and like, it might feel like it drags on for some people or it's getting fat.
[SPEAKER_02]: It always feels like it's like, it's imminent because there's so much we have to do before then, so it does speed up for me.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm grateful for the time, even though the timing is still kind of annoying.
[SPEAKER_03]: I will never forget being at the ACC tournament, and I guess it would have been 2018, I think it was, and where there was like, oh, there are five catchers here who could go high.
[SPEAKER_03]: And Will Smith kind of like earned himself a good bit of money that week because he really did look like the best, but you know, but he was kind of coming from further off, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: He wasn't Zach Collins, you know, or, you know,
[SPEAKER_03]: There were a couple other guys like there were multiple first round pit catchers in that but will Smith kind of moved himself up it was a great reminder to me of like This is like really An important time coming up from a draft perspective because if you If you can really do something that stands out
[SPEAKER_03]: in the next few weeks.
[SPEAKER_03]: It has a little bit more resonance than if you did it in February or March.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: These are pressure-packed situations in games that really matter and with a whole lot of people, like there will be a lot of people in Charlotte, the ACC tournament,
[SPEAKER_03]: There are a lot of people in Alabama, you know, at Foover, you know, covered in the, a lot of scouts will be there for the SEC tournament.
[SPEAKER_03]: A lot of these tournaments, but I've said those are the two where even more than most, there will be like wall to wall, like decision makers, because you can see a lot of first, second, third round talents in one spot.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a, it's a very efficient way to do it.
[SPEAKER_03]: Even if they're always generally does seem to be a lightning delay or two, it's not true.
[SPEAKER_03]: That pushes a game to like two in the morning or whatever.
[SPEAKER_03]: But that is our graph podcast.
[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you again for joining us.
[SPEAKER_03]: Please do, you know, leave comments.
[SPEAKER_03]: I again, we love the comments.
[SPEAKER_03]: I've been Cron and Respondous.
[SPEAKER_03]: Many is a can on the YouTube channel, but also we appreciate all of our podcast listeners as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: And obviously check out all the content over at baseballamerica.com.
[SPEAKER_03]: So much is going on right now.
[SPEAKER_03]: So much we have new updated top 100.
[SPEAKER_03]: with a new number one now.
[SPEAKER_03]: And we keep adding players.
[SPEAKER_03]: We've added some notable names and some notable rising prospects to the top 100.
[SPEAKER_03]: We have, as you're listening to this, we are finishing up updating our top 30s for all 30 organizations.
[SPEAKER_03]: Those will out next week as we record this.
[SPEAKER_03]: the week of conference tournament play in the draft for college conference tournament play and we are working on updating.
[SPEAKER_03]: We are working on writing reports to get to 500 for this year's draft but also Carlos and the team is busy at work on updating our 27 and 28 lists as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: So much stuff going on at baseballmerc.com.
[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you again for joining us for Carlos.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm JJ.