[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's up, everyone?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome in to another episode of the Toolshed Podcast brought to you by Rotobollar.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 451.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: Gonna be discussing even more prospect promotions in this episode, along with some early season under 20 prospect standouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I have a great guest with me to do so.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a prospect writer at the dynasty dugout.
[SPEAKER_01]: Host of the prospect promotion incentive podcast,
[SPEAKER_01]: Mr. Zach back at upper underscore back on Twitter back as you go on Going good.
[SPEAKER_02]: Thanks for having me back.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know we tried this a week ago, but we're having some internet issues, so it's nice to see you again Glad you're hockey team one tonight Yeah, it's hockey season still which is weird it's warm and
[SPEAKER_01]: it feels weird when it gets warm going to hockey game.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a second weird.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: You take your jacket off on the walk to the stadium and then back on when you're in.
[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.
[SPEAKER_01]: At 100%.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was actually really cold in the arena tonight.
[SPEAKER_01]: It had been warm the last couple of games in there.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was pretty cold tonight.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I left the left the sweatshirt on during the game this time.
[SPEAKER_01]: But
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, appreciate you being flexible and having some random internet Wi-Fi issues here that I'm hopefully having resolved here soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, uh, should be good to go though.
[SPEAKER_01]: And still going to a lot of stuff talk about some, it's been a lot of pressure motions over the last.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a few weeks or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been like, you know, a few big ones every week and even the last few days we had a few more and I already talked talk about a lot of them last week and got a handful more and we'll talk some under 20 projects standouts about a fun names kind of breaking out and you know, making big names for themselves.
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's hop right into it here.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll start with the recent project promotions, and we'll go to maybe, maybe the most fun ones given, you know, how ridiculously could this guy has been lately, and that's Henry Bolt with the athletics.
[SPEAKER_01]: 12 home runs and 17 steals in 37 games slash in 348 for 18 658.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's hitting nearly 500 over his last 16 games with 11 multi hit games for games with at least four hits and then two five hit games in there as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just just ridiculous what he's doing this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, this guy's always been pretty intriguing back just given, you know, obviously the speed a little bit of power.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's made some improvements this year too, kind of beyond that in terms of, you know, contact and approach.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, do you think the, you know, the improvements we've seen from Bolt this year are legitimate?
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you putting a lot of stock into those and what have a player to think this guy's going to be for fantasy?
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm really excited about him.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know that I'm necessarily sold on the changes, just given this is the second go around in AAA.
[SPEAKER_02]: But any breakdown of Henry Bolt needs to start with the power he's running like 110 mile an hour, 90th percentile exevalosity.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's frankly incredible.
[SPEAKER_02]: These hit 12 homeruns with a ground ball rate that's almost 60% if he's able to raise that launch angle in Sacramento, the damage on contact is gonna be.
[SPEAKER_02]: ridiculous, and he's probably going to need to run really high damage rates given where the bat's ball is at, but this is a very exciting promotion if everything sticks for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I said, this guy maybe has a little bit more variance than maybe like the next guy we're talking about here, but he is just like the upside he mentioned the power, the speed is a phenomenal athlete as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And even if you don't go back down to where he was, if you can just have at least like a 70% contact ray, I don't even need him to run.
[SPEAKER_01]: above average contact risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'd be great, but if you can just keep it above, you know, above 70% contact, I think that'll be, you know, keep that K rate in check.
[SPEAKER_01]: You need to be a really fun density player, because you like that power speed, you know, in that line up, in that ballpark, like, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: ballpark and team context are pretty good here yet the next obviously got a lot of good young players around him and that ballpark's you know good now and it should be continuing to be good in the Vegas or we'll see you soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, there's a lot of fun here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't pushed him my top 25 right anything like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think some people have but it definitely pushed him way up the last couple of updates here.
[SPEAKER_01]: as he continues to dominate this season, but definitely a really fun promotion here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'd take a shot of him and read draft for the upside for sure, but you know, maybe I think there might be some growing pains here, but really fun upside for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: The other outfield prospect promotion here got that's ranked, I think top 25 for most now, or if not,
[SPEAKER_01]: pretty darn close.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Ryan Walshman with the Arizona Diamondbacks coming off in 18 Homer 29 still year last year between high A and AA, which he basically split time almost perfectly split time between those two levels.
[SPEAKER_01]: Overall slash line was 289, 419, 473, nearly as many walks as straightouts and sort of 114 runs as well sort of ton of runs last year too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe not quite as, you know, buzzy and predictable as a Henry Bolt, but you can make a strong argument.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a much higher floor here with the wallagement back.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, how good do you think wallagement is going to be long term?
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think this is going to be, you know, more of a floor guy?
[SPEAKER_01]: I already think this would be a guy that's an impact out feeling a profanity purpose.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's a great question.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I love dry and wild Schmidt coming out of Kentucky.
[SPEAKER_02]: I distinctly remember being disappointed with the brewers when they took Braille and pain at 17.
[SPEAKER_02]: When wild Schmidt was still on the board, the underlying data there looked great, the underlying data here also looks great.
[SPEAKER_02]: Doesn't hit the ball particularly hard.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's probably 20 home run upside.
[SPEAKER_02]: But what he's going to do is he's going to get out base a lot and he's not going to strike out.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think we're looking at an above average regular who could run
[SPEAKER_02]: and steel double digit bases and get up to 20, maybe 25 home runs in a good year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's kind of where I'm thinking to where it's not going to be, you know, you won't be 30 plus bombs, 30 plus deals, but I think he can be a 20 plus steel guy and I think he can be, yeah, I think 20, 25 home runs is fair.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was running, you know, hard hit rates weren't great, it was 30, 30% hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he could maximize that power more than most, but, you know, I think, yeah, 20 low, you know, around 20 home runs similar to the little bit more in the stolen base departments.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, I do also agree.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's he's a guy that's always walked at a good clip, you know, contact skills are pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to use the above average contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: I though it did tick down a little bit this year, but
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, keeps the swing and strike right and check.
[SPEAKER_01]: No less swing and miss in the profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, maybe not like super sexy profile, but a really good all-around profile, I think these guys often get a little under value because they don't have that one, wow, tool.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I kind of feel similarly, you know, and I can overall value sense with Walter when I was I did with like Matt Shaw a year or so ago where yeah, no, no stand out, tool, but I think he'll give you a little bit of everything.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, Shaw hasn't only been playing too much with the
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think Wall Street can be just like a solid maybe got it ends up being like your outfield three for fantasy or totally I think that's right.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think I wrote about Matt Shaw in the book a few years ago that he's not a player that is going to win a lot of leagues, but he'll be on a lot of teams that win leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: What I mean by that is I don't think Ryan Wall Street's going to hurt you in any regard.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's a pretty high floor and there's some upside baked in there too with the angles and with the foot speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's I love that you said that yeah, those types of guys those glue guys that you know every winning team has you obviously you love to get the fun guys, but you can't let's go all fun guys It's a lot of times that doesn't work out too well, but yeah, the guys you kind of mentioned I call them the burlsons.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what outlook burlsons the guy I was always kind of think about I love targeting elk burlson the second he's a solid like not a guy that's flashy by any means, but just a really solid guy that you love having
[SPEAKER_01]: on your team.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I definitely, I like that analogy a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: The latest addition here that we just kind of added within the last hour or two, AJ Ewing with the New York Metz, recently got promoted to Triple A and I think it was about two, would a half, three weeks ago or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that was as a quick stop before the Metz brought him up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, the Metz season kind of
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's going to rise really con according to plan and so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe, you know, AJ Ewing can give them a nice little shot in the arm here, offensively.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a pretty good season so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been double a triple a 30 games, 132 plate appearances, a 339, 447, 514 slash line.
[SPEAKER_01]: a couple of bombs, 17 steel was more walks than strikeouts, nearly a 17% walk rate and a 15.2% strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the guy that coming off a 70 steel season last year was when he caught 11 times.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I got that.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's got the speed, the willingness to run and a pretty good efficiency along with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think everyone knows the speed is there and obviously the on base has always been there as well, but you think what do you think the bat ends up you know back obviously I think there's some sneaky power in there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if it's anything more than like a 10 to 12 homer guy, but where do you think you in winds up with the bat here long term?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think that's exactly right.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think 10 or 12 home runs is probably what you could really realistically put a ceiling on.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, throughout his minor league career, I think he maxed out with 10 home runs in 2024 and that was over 90 games.
[SPEAKER_02]: So maybe with 162 games season, he could get up to something like 15.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think,
[SPEAKER_02]: The real value in AJ Ewing is that for a major league team, he's going to be really pesky.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's going to see a lot of pitches.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's going to get on base a lot.
[SPEAKER_02]: And when he's standing on first, he's a threat to stand on second very shortly thereafter.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've been super impressed with what he's been doing at AAA.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a small sample, of course.
[SPEAKER_02]: But
[SPEAKER_02]: A little peek behind the curtain, one thing I like to do, just to get very quick access to public stack castes, a boot-up prospects amount, and they have a PS score, which is essentially a Z score, of all of the under the hood data, and he has a perfect 100% PS score.
[SPEAKER_02]: That combines his chase rate or his approach, his bat to ball both in and out of the zone.
[SPEAKER_02]: Angles, how hard he's hitting the ball, and he's just been spectacular.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been the best player in Triple A since he came up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was only there for 12 games, but he made his mark, he had five steals in those 12 games in Triple A, hit 326 with a 392 OBP.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, just give me, he's a guy that, all I need from him is 10 home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: This don't be one two home run guy, those guys, I have a zero interest in no matter how many stills are getting me.
[SPEAKER_01]: Stanford never been my style for fantasy purposes, but I think he can give you the, I've seen him live, I've seen him hit some polls,
[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think the home runs will be there in terms of like sad.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's been more than 10 to 12, but that's all you really need.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you's going to give you a This might be a 40 plus steel guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this guy could be one of the league leaders in steel is giving you a high O BP.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, his lowest O BP.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 344 clip as a 19 year old back in low a couple years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what that's been like 370 plus basically everywhere with some 400 pluses sprinkled in there and coding this year as I mentioned.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, I think there'll be fun to see what he can do.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he can turn into that, you know, top of the order table setter and get on base and steal some bags, get in sort of position, you know, in front of Lindor and Soto and everyone.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, we'll see, but yeah, that's a really sticky fun profile here with AJ Uings, a nice little addition late on this podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the last one here, the big pitching promotion of the last handful of days, finally Robbie snowing gets the call, I think people would be kind of clearing for that, getting back the last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Get a nice rebound year.
[SPEAKER_01]: This guy at that back in 2023, got up to double as a 19 year old, and he was flying up rankings, you know, top 10 prospect for some myself included.
[SPEAKER_01]: Back then, a pitching prospect, I should say, not overall prospect, but
[SPEAKER_01]: 2024, lost a little bit of that value and he struggled in AA between St. Diego in the Miami systems.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, down spec nicely last year had a 251 ERA in 25 starts this year, more of the same at a 186 ERA in his six stars before the promotion.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 296 BIP 268 X-FIP a 090 whip
[SPEAKER_01]: and a one-sixteen batting of a G.A.N.
[SPEAKER_01]: 40% K rate as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Walk rate did tick up 13.5% that's not something I'm personally concerned about.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's never been a guy that showed really any issues in that regard.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I'm not really too concerned about that long term, but a little bit of a, you know, weird debut for him, but Robby Selling one of the, you know, top pitching project in the game back.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, what type of impact arm do you think this guy can be for fantasy
[SPEAKER_02]: I really like Robby's knowing, I think, you know, we talk a lot about the physical profile with the makeup here, I think is really strong as well, and of course he's been excellent at AAA for about a year and a half now it feels like the one thing that I'm watching out for him is sort of the backup in command and control, I'm not concerned long term, but it's a little bit reminiscent of what happened when he struggled between
[SPEAKER_02]: San Diego and Miami system.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was a little yipy.
[SPEAKER_02]: Sorry to say the why word, but that's really what it looked like.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he had difficulty placing the ball on the zone without a getting hit hard.
[SPEAKER_02]: I worry that early career for him might look like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: And one of the things that I'm looking at that gives me that feeling is just his,
[SPEAKER_02]: pitch usage.
[SPEAKER_02]: So he is primarily a two-pitch pitcher.
[SPEAKER_02]: It is about 80% usage between the fastball and curveball.
[SPEAKER_02]: I really want to see that change up, tick up as he learns to dispense with right-handed batters with that pitch.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think the sinker could help a little bit as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So a little bit more even pitch distribution, but this is one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in baseball.
[SPEAKER_02]: And another one might just be right behind him in Thomas White.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, my amy's got some good pitching there.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see if they can build on that by a Thomas White man.
[SPEAKER_01]: That guy is absolutely filthy.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, white, snow, and they could form a pretty good duo there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm moving forward, but yeah, as soon as I got, I like a good bit here.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you mentioned the makeup, this this guy battled through struggles and you know, came out on top and then we kind of reclaimed, you know, in 2025 reclaimed that lost value that he had from 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, there's a there's definitely some concerns here, like you mentioned and don't want him to kind of just kind of go back to what he was kind of control lies a couple years ago, but you're this guy can miss bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: you mentioned the fastball curve ball really good combination there.
[SPEAKER_01]: It kind of feels like I mean, not it's not nearly the same pitch mix, but it kind of like what people were saying about like Peyton told me we're okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's way too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know, the arsenal's way too like over here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can just be a little bit more
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, diverse and he did that this off season and this spring thankfully so in kind of a new look totally this year, but you know, we'll see if So it's not I can do that obviously Miami as a lot of good, you know, success track record with developing change ups and whatnot.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that gives me some confidence there Like you've seen them through that so many times with the last you know five six seven, you know years or so That's hopefully they can do that here with him and get that change up up to being a you know third weapon for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: So
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, well, a lot of good here, you know, some stuff to work on, but that's a lot of good building blocks here, too.
[SPEAKER_02]: I really like that you brought up Payton, totally, because that's the exact sort of developmental track I want to see for Robby's knowing.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, uh, totally, you know, had a little bit of a rough time in Major League Baseball decided to really flush out that repertoire.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I, I think we might be looking at a similar thing for Robby's knowing Major League Baseball's tough for everybody in their first go around and I think it'll have some things to work through, but I'm really bullish on him long term.
[SPEAKER_01]: yeah, definitely right there with you on that one.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go over to some under 20 prospects standouts here and then there's a lot more we could have added to this list.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's probably a few names, you know, Xavier Nehands or something like that there people are like, oh, what are you talking about them?
[SPEAKER_01]: Just tweet at us.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure we can answer for you on Twitter, but we got like I think there's 10 names on here five hitters and five pitchers starting with one of the other two guys that have at least 10 steals and 10 home runs in the minor leagues right now, you know, both obviously is another one.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then Blake Burke, I'll be enough from your Milwaukee is the third one.
[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone thought Blake Burke would be out there, you know, 12 on runs and 13 steals whatever it is.
[SPEAKER_01]: So far, but Eric Hartman, guy we're talking about here, who's off to this a ridiculous start in high a.
[SPEAKER_01]: 3331, 417, 710 slash line.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's an 187WRC plus one of the top marks in the minor leagues right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got 22 total extra base hits, 12 of those are home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: 13 steals, only been caught three times this after a 48 steel year last year with only six times caught.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is a guy that just loves to get on base and loves to run, got to get walk at a good clip as well, you know, 10, 11, 12 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, throughout his minor league career so far, I mean, still very young career, but really the most exciting thing here, you know, back is just the additional power.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like, he's really leading into that power.
[SPEAKER_01]: Five one runs last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: an 89 games between complex and low-A, but already has over doubled that in 58 fewer games.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, what are you seeing here from Hartman if you think this, you know, the power we're saving from him this year is for real and, you know, how aggressive would you be in going after him in a dicey league right now?
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh man, he's one of the hardest players to rank.
[SPEAKER_02]: Actually, we're going to talk about who I think is maybe the hardest player to rank right now in just a few minutes.
[SPEAKER_02]: But Hartman, I have historically been a very slow mover on some of these early season breakouts in the sense that I might pick them up speculatively or tweet out.
[SPEAKER_02]: Hey, this does is worth a look.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you have the roster spot, go ahead and grab them.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I'm not often throwing them up a list until I see a little bit more.
[SPEAKER_02]: sort of the Christian Campbell thing wrong again and that was a full season's worth of underlying data that was spectacular.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think what's really exciting about Hartman so far is he the exit velocities are over as of about a week ago and he is almost sort of the
[SPEAKER_02]: a version, the left-handed version of Rangel Rodriguez in the sense that he is pulling everything and he's getting everything in the air and that is where the 710 slugging percentages really come from.
[SPEAKER_02]: A jump in exits and a far, far healthier sort of both vertical and horizontal spray distribution and he's put 12 balls and seats.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, it's been really fun to
[SPEAKER_01]: In a little over a month, June 16th, he'll turn to 20.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you mentioned, you know, high poll rate right now, but 54% poll rate, you know, air rate about 70% or so there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, context pretty solid too.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's making decent contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so really doing a lot of good here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if this power,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it can stick.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this could be a really fun fantasy to, you know, outfielder.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think this would be like a 30 home or a car to think that, but indefinitely seeing him lean to that power, hitting good angles to maximize that power has been really encouraging.
[SPEAKER_01]: So far this year, and any story of phenomenal athlete on top of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: lot of good here with Eric Hartman and am I the only one whenever I hear his name or even see his name I think of Dr. Hartman from family guy might the only one that thinks that I don't know if you're a family guy guy back but I think of Dr. Hartman every time I see his name.
[SPEAKER_02]: See that's funny because he reminds me of South Park.
[SPEAKER_02]: I always when I say Eric Hartman I hear Eric Hartman.
[SPEAKER_02]: Ah, no.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, I love it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, that's a good podcast and we can get both a family guy and a South Park reference into the pod.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't even thought of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is yeah, that's actually very very close.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just one letter one letter.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's it.
[SPEAKER_02]: The last thing that I'll say about Hartman is it's sort of incredible that he's getting the ball to the pull side and then the air is often as he is.
[SPEAKER_02]: and not striking out very much.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a 78% overall contact rate and just a 20% strike out rate, which is I mean you have to fire so early to get the ball in the air to the pull side as consistently as he does.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I think that's really, really encouraging.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oftentimes we've seen that and kind of go the other way with a lot of these guys that really lean into that pole side power.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, a lot of encouraging things going on here with the Dr. Eric Hartman Cartman over here, so I think actually some people tweet that he's top 100 for them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's definitely getting into that discussion.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see at this continues and they'll be hard not to kind of put him super high in rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Next guy here, going out to the Dodgers, because of course they have,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, argue with the vise of farm system and all of baseball, because they just do everything well there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll have to spend a money, uh, email morale us currently in low A and was there last year between complex and low A had a pretty good year last year too.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had 314, 396, 515 this year, a little bit better across the board, 328, 397, 557 slash line, full home runs and two steals in 30 games so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: K rate a little high actually exactly the same K rate the last two years at 26 and a half percent This guy I feel like Morales back is I got that's a little undervalued right now is because everyone you know loves focusing on the outfielders right which obviously you know why not whether you're
[SPEAKER_01]: Hope, you know, fan at the Paula fan or Cerro to fan a contereo fan like those guys get I mean this my God This is ridiculous.
[SPEAKER_01]: They be an endless supply of riches.
[SPEAKER_01]: They have but you know those those four guys are super highly ranked and gets all the love right now Then like Perralis was like he's just kind of like flying under the radar a bit like he still gets it's ranked fairly highly But if there's still like a little bit of like that that value to be had here with Morales
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I said, you're a little bit of a hierarchy, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Same thing last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I says, you know, slate concern here, nothing super concerning yet, but a lot of tools here with Morales as well, a lot of power projection to, you know, he's got that really predictable frame that you'd love to see from a young prospect.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, what do you thoughts here with a Miumo Morales?
[SPEAKER_02]: I think whether or not you have appetite for Emil Morales has a lot to do with your appetite for risk, I think everything is really here.
[SPEAKER_02]: He hits the crap out of the ball, he's already logged a handful of 110 or higher exit velocities.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think he's masked some hit tool problems because he hits the ball so hard, his
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, three years ago.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I,
[SPEAKER_02]: I think if Emo Morellus had an average hit tool, if he was striking out like 20 to 22% of the time, he would be a slam dunk top 20, maybe even top 10 prospect.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just based on, I think there's potential for him to hit 30 home runs.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think there's potential for him to stay of the middle.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just the hit tool question on is he going to strike out at or over 30% of the time in Major League Baseball?
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's walking a very fine line here
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's why I haven't only pushed them top 25.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I still have them top 50 overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think I had them, I think it was like in the 40 to 45 range in my last update.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's actually probably moved up into the 30s given all the graduations we've had over the last few weeks, including one of those top guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: But like last year, you know, it was, you know, in the mid 60s, this year slightly better, but still sub 70% contact rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's still a bit concerning.
[SPEAKER_01]: So right now, you got to wonder where does the average wind up?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is he a lower average OBP guy?
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still a few years away.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably the ETA of 2028 and maybe even later than that, given how.
[SPEAKER_01]: They'll probably slow play him and obviously they have plenty of options ahead of him.
[SPEAKER_01]: They only need to rush, I'm aroused to the majors, but yeah, if you can get that contact, just sniff and 50 grade contact, overall approach, I think he could be a really fun gutter, you know, be a 30-point swimmer guy, give you a few steals, I think that I think the speed will tick down a little bit if he does feel a little bit more, but I think it'll still be athletic enough to give you some steals by the 10.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe it may be a best case scenario, like a high level outcomes, like a wily adomace type of profile, where it's maybe 30, 10 of things work out, you know, average maybe a little up to 42, 50, but I think that could be like a good outcome for him.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I'm into the extent that we care about the glove at all.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think it'll be wily adomace level, but in terms of offensive output, I think that makes a lot of sense.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 100%.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's go across the coast here to the Washington Nationals with one of the, you know, bigger breakouts of the early season.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Ronnie Cruz, you know, currently in high A was the third round pick by the Cubs back in 2024, then came to the Nats via trade last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so pretty good year last year as well, you know, you got that, you know, hit 270 at the
[SPEAKER_01]: 10 steel is a couple of bombs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, but this year already as 19 steel's in 31 games, been caught five times, 7 home runs, 5 doubles, a couple of triples as well, 325, 426, 575, slash line, walk right a little over 11 percent, a little bit of a higher K rate at 25 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: Another guy that has a big poll tendency, the poll rate,
[SPEAKER_01]: But back this guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm sure this is a guy you were alluding to.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, yeah, I kind of had a bunch it was because, you know, there's a lot of good here, then you look at the contact rates, the, you know, the swing strike rates and everything and that just gets kind of concerning there, but there's some good raw tools as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: How are you balancing all of the pros and cons here with Ronnie Cruz?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think the ceiling is definitely there.
[SPEAKER_02]: And the 25% strikeout rate in high A is a 19 year old doesn't really scare me at all.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think some of the hit tool issues have been masked by the fact that he's running an over 300 average.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think a lot of people are going to listen to this.
[SPEAKER_02]: and say, I mean, he had 333 in Abel and 319 so far in 17 games in high A, how much, how are you going to say this guy is hit to a problems because he's running overall contact rates and like the Spencer Jones neighborhood not on the same street, but maybe a block over.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you know, it's it's hard for that to work a long term.
[SPEAKER_02]: I was digging in just because Garrett Mitchell plays for the team that I root for and he's striking out like 38% of the time.
[SPEAKER_02]: And naturally, I was fighting with somebody on Twitter about it.
[SPEAKER_02]: But the there's been one guy in the last 10 years to make striking out over 35% of the time work out.
[SPEAKER_02]: And now is 2017 Joe Eyalon, he had 40 home runs and played gold glove defense.
[SPEAKER_02]: So.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's, I'm not saying that Ronnie Cruz is going to strike out 35% of the time when eventually he is a big leagueer, but the hit tool risk is obviously present.
[SPEAKER_02]: That said, it's really easy to watch Ronnie Cruz on film and fall in love.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he is, you can see the projection.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's sort of drowning in a jersey.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, he looks like the best player on the field often, um, and the, the, the bad speed is, is pretty prolific.
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you're just watching, you know, random at bats on Twitter, he, he looks like the best player in high A is a 19 year old.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I worry that, uh, without an adjustment here, without a little bit more, uh, barrel maneuverability, things could fall apart when
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm right there with you because if he's already having some of these issues with contact in low-income mentioned like that's happened so many times.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, Lizara Montez was always hitting for high average, but I'm like, and this contact rates are pretty scary right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, you see guys, you know, they hit them all hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: They run higher babbip, you know, sometimes that average, you know, takes up higher than it probably should.
[SPEAKER_01]: But usually you, these guys get closer to the majors in double-A triple-A, you start seeing that kind of
[SPEAKER_01]: And is that going to happen here with Ronnie Cruz?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously, he is super predictable, power upside.
[SPEAKER_01]: And decent athlete as well has got to still probably give you some speed as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, he's got to wonder, can he make it work?
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you need to see some pretty stark adjustments and improvements in that regard.
[SPEAKER_01]: Before he's a guy that I'm like putting top 100.
[SPEAKER_01]: But definitely a fun guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Definitely a trendy guy that's been rising up rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, those are some adjustments.
[SPEAKER_02]: make to see see that contact right trend in the right direction here over the next you know four five months of the season but yeah and I mean just just to put it plainly I am going to have him in my top 100 in my next update it is not going to be high in the top 100 it'll probably be in the same ballpark that baseball america had him I think it was around 90 that feels right
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's fair.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I have him in the one, I think he's 125, 130 range from here right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think like, you know, 100 give or take, you know, a little bit either way is a fair thing for him or this is depending on, you know, where if you value the upside, if you're, you know, how much risk adverse you are, you know, kind of a little bit of burials there, but
[SPEAKER_01]: definitely a fun prospect, no doubt about that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Next name here, Ethan Salas, think it's time for, that's time that, as you said, I think it's time to talk about him again, have another discussion about Ethan Salas, because, I mean, before Spencer Jones kind of became as polarizing as he is, I think the most polarizing prospect in baseball, you know, for various reasons for Ethan Salas, a couple years ago, you know, obviously made it up to AA as a 17-year-old,
[SPEAKER_01]: still saying that now three years later still close my mind.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was so long ago 23, but you know, and that pushed him like he was super high.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think like pipeline MLB might have had on my top 10 obviously that's not fantasy focused, but
[SPEAKER_01]: You saw the ranking super high.
[SPEAKER_01]: I obviously was not going that high with him, but then he had a couple of years where to do some injuries to some inconsistent forms of the play.
[SPEAKER_01]: Only played 10 games last year and he's been kind of chilling at AA for a few years now.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this year, he's starting to really get it going here.
[SPEAKER_01]: had a nice little hot stretch couple weeks ago, but overall at 320, 396, 546, slash line, 5 home runs, 6 deals in 28 games, running a walk rate around 11 and a half percent, carry around 23 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So given they have the last few years of gone and what you're seeing this year from Ethan Salis back, where are you adding him right now?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it a time to buy back in?
[SPEAKER_01]: Where are you at right now?
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you can get a discount just about everywhere on Ethan Salus.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think people have caught up to what he's doing this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't know if people believe what he's doing this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, when we talk about non-standard development paths, this is about as weird as they come.
[SPEAKER_02]: At least since we had a whole cohort of prospects, come through and miss a year and do backfield stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: during COVID.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is, I think the weirdest one that comes to mind for me, we had a 17-year-old in AA, then some underperformance back in high A, then lost a year to injury, and now is back.
[SPEAKER_02]: And as more age appropriate, he's 19, he actually turns 20 in about two weeks, so having him in AA now feels a little bit more reasonable.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's playing extremely well.
[SPEAKER_02]: The contact rates are good.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's hitting the ball hard.
[SPEAKER_02]: The angles look all right.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think people should be back in, I don't know how far necessarily, but if you're getting an outside of the top 200 price on him, you should take that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I'm even kind of agreeing with you there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously, I've been more, you know, probably lower than everybody on sales over the years.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I was kind of like, well, pump the brakes back in 2023.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think it's, I think the price tag and the value have swung so far the other direction now that he actually is a decent bike.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't have him top 100.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know some might probably do at this point again, but I still don't, not in thinnestly focusless.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, real life, you know, defense.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, that is a ton of value there.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know the thing with him like he's always been a good contact guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's thing even through the struggle Like this guy was making pretty good contact, you know, either upper 70s or like low 80s Percent the same thing this year is around the 80 to 80% this year, you know, impacting the ball a bit more this year You know, he's always got to that pull side
[SPEAKER_01]: as well and hit the ball in the airs.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's been the issue.
[SPEAKER_01]: They pull side, yes, getting it in the air, no, so maybe you can kind of blend those to a little bit better.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, but you know, you see something, some home runs this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like that's the area I kind of was questioning, like, all right, he's a good athlete, you know, he can make contact, you know, beets in the approach to play.
[SPEAKER_01]: how much impact does he get to have?
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's definitely area that's, you know, in the positive direction this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see if it sticks.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, still, you know, only 28 games, but, you know, you know, you have like all five of those home runs where I'm like an eight game stretcher or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, definitely turning in the right way and even me, you know, the big Ethan Salast detractor from a few years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm like, you know what, you know, I might take a shot on him at this point, you know, as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a price for everybody.
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't driving, I even got all the vertical monocity in a best ball draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: It didn't work out.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I got it was super light.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll I will take anybody even if I'm like the biggest like, you know, anti, you know, Salis guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that ain't the price tag is pretty good right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you still get them for the outside top 200 my price tag right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't believe we're going to have.
[SPEAKER_02]: I normally bury catchers on my list, just because it's so hard for them to return fantasy value.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think last year there were five primary catchers like up more than 650 plate appearances.
[SPEAKER_02]: And they're all guys that DH on their off days, Cal Raleigh, William Contreras, guys like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: So unless you're going to really stack plate appearances because your bat is good enough.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm never really going to shove a catcher up a list.
[SPEAKER_02]: That said, I think if you're getting a reasonable value on Ethan Salas, now's the time to pull the trigger.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you know, if the price is low enough, you're not really missing out on a ton, if it goes south.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if it, if it progresses, he will be in some top 100s by midseason.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, and then you know, the other thing is like, you're, he carries some sort of inherent value because mainstream lists like pipeline or baseball America, they're always going to weigh the glove to.
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you're trying to sway some league mates, just say, look, it were, uh, pipeline and baseball America.
[SPEAKER_02]: I have it.
[SPEAKER_02]: And a lot of that's because he just mows down guys on the base paths.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he is really fun to watch and just behind the plate and everything he does is it's really fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you appreciate a good defensive catcher that can just sling it, which I do like I grew up, I love probably.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, outside of Yama Red Sex, I said a Vertec.
[SPEAKER_01]: Who always have a special place in my heart.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think my favorite non-verite catcher of all types of probably like a yaddy and Malena I love watching that guy just like especially like you know, guy gets off first base a little bit too much But when he drops a knee and he's slinging it over to first base.
[SPEAKER_01]: I friggin loves You know watching yaddy for that, you know all those years with the same lowest cardinal.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I appreciate a good defensive catcher So yeah, I definitely appreciate Ethan Salus in that sense
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, last hitter here going down to tip a bay and they're sheet, they have a few guys because it talks about that they kind of fit this mold, but we're going to go with Cooper Fleming, they're second round pick last year, 53rd overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: Still 19 years old, he'll turn 20 later this year in the early part of August, but he's he's off to a pretty fun start to the season in low A, three home runs and five steals in 28 games, nearly as many walks as strikeouts, 16 walks to 20 strikeouts, 336, 438, 533, slash line and a 165.
[SPEAKER_01]: WRC plus so you know back doing you know let me do a little bit of everything right now and I believe I just saw I figured where I saw maybe he tweeted about it but I think Clecks pretty high on Fleming as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he might have just seen him recently Yeah, I was kind of bored at where I saw him say that so yeah, so Fleming starting to you know build a name for himself here so are you are you buying the hype right now
[SPEAKER_02]: I am, yes, I think just as an aside, Chris doesn't tweet very often anymore so when he does my ear sort of perk up.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that really prompted me to go watch some of his film and Chris was saying he looked like the best player in the field at all times.
[SPEAKER_02]: I have to agree, it showed up through the screen.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is one of my favorite FYPD buckets to play in is sort of that second
[SPEAKER_02]: high school talents get pushed up so far and there's a lot of value to be had in the second third fourth round.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just like the race did with Fleming, I mean, overall pick 53, probably going later than that in FYPDs and he's doing everything well, he's making a ton of contact, the approach is really nice and measured, he's pulling the ball really well, the one thing that I couldn't nitpick.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not going to, but if I wanted to nitpick, it would be the ground ball rate.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a projectable body 6 3 190 and I think if you get in today you're still pretty early on him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and Tampa Bay's tracker speaks for itself, they've always seemed to find these types of guys, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Where, you know, I feel like they shop at the same bucket that you shop in when they're drafted.
[SPEAKER_01]: They seem to always find these guys are like, you know, not like the super buzzy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, if they go like, you know, the prep in the field or route.
[SPEAKER_01]: They got to go like that second tier, third tier.
[SPEAKER_01]: And they're always in the find some good value, you know, and those like second, third, fourth, fifth rounds.
[SPEAKER_01]: of the draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, Fleming was the second round pick for them last year signed for a little under $2 million.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I think he's a guy where, you know, we, we find to see where the, the power, you know, winds up long term if he does kind of add some bolt there and maybe like a 20, 25 home or guy, you know, but you know, he's a decent defender.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can give you a little bit of everything.
[SPEAKER_01]: I do wonder if he's more like a below average running long term if he does fill out.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, I do think there's
[SPEAKER_01]: in the profile, it's a good approach, there's a power projection, you know, some speed, even if it may not be, you know, blazing speed or 20 plus deals.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's, we'll still be at the five to ten still guy long term.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, flooding that definitely a fun little prospect here that yeah, I was guilty of kind of undervaluing him in, you know, FIPD rankings and I've definitely corrected that over the last few updates for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, going over to the pitching side here, we got five more names and, you know, well, there's a lot of fun names, you know, we talked about already in a few more that we will.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the funnest of the names, and then this episode, Seth Freakin Hernandez.
[SPEAKER_01]: This guy is, I mean, I'm burning out of words to use to describe how good Seth Hernandez is.
[SPEAKER_01]: He just got the call,
[SPEAKER_01]: up to high a you know I think was yesterday that news broke and so I mean he earned that you know six starts for low-A break in ten I mean listen to these freaking numbers here
[SPEAKER_01]: 6 starts 28 innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: He faced 104 betters, about 13 hits, three runs, seven walks, 50 strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's put those in the normal numbers.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a 0.96 ERA, 0.71 whip, a 135 batting average against six and a half percent walker eight and a 48 percent strike got right for a 19 year old.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just,
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you watch him.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you've seen five seconds of video on him, you know how nasty this guy is, already is one of the best change ups in all the baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: The velocity's there.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a feel for spin.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the top of it all up, this guy is so advanced in terms of like his feel and pitchability for, you know, when you compare him to his peers.
[SPEAKER_01]: So like, it's off the charts, everything's off the charts with Seth Hernandez.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, back as it crazy to say that's, you know, he could be the number one pitcher project right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think it's a discussion between like him and then a key to Anderson and Thomas White, but back to he's already in that discussion.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's pretty remarkable.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm thinking about it.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm definitely thinking about it.
[SPEAKER_02]: The whole time you were talking, I was just, I was asking myself the question, is it Seth or is it Cade for a number one pitching prospect in baseball?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it really comes down to whether you value ultimate ceiling.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, this is, these are some of the dumbest numbers I've ever seen on a fan graph page.
[SPEAKER_02]: And when you watch them on video, it makes perfect sense.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the questions out of high school were maybe the fastball shape won't be amazing.
[SPEAKER_02]: doesn't matter.
[SPEAKER_02]: He throws triple digits when he wants it.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe he won't have a feel for spin wrong, uh, is breaking stuff is really good.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he had probably the best change up in the class.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's, I mean, it's ridiculous.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, it's going to be Kate or Seth for me.
[SPEAKER_02]: I haven't made up my mind.
[SPEAKER_02]: The one thing I'm sort of juggling is just Kate's proximity.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think we see him this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: And maybe by the all-star break.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, um, and that, you know, that's to say nothing of the quality of,
[SPEAKER_02]: the best high school pitching prospect I've seen in a long time.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm right there with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember, you know, people said the same thing about the schemes is fast.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, shape and you know, look at that term now.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, like the upside here, I mean, the fact that they've got in the last was the last three drafts.
[SPEAKER_01]: They got some schemes, Connor Griffin and Seth and Nandes.
[SPEAKER_01]: that's a pretty good run.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a pretty good run.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's that's pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see if they can do anything with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's pretty good this year, surprisingly.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, there's nothing.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see if they don't mess it up.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, the fact is, thinking about that rotation with skins and Hernandez and like a Jared Jones, a
[SPEAKER_01]: even Mitch Keller.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like there's six at that point, but that could be a really, really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of risk there, obviously.
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't join some back from injury, Bubba's had his ups and downs.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Hernandez is 19, but that that could be a stupid good rotation.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I don't usually go this high this early on.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a 19 year old, you know, high school arm that just was a high school a year ago, so the fact that I have him already, yeah, I'm right there with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm, you know, him or her kid, it's kind of back and forth.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're both probably like in my top 10 overall and my next update just because like after the top like handful of guys, I'm like,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know what, do I like any of that next year more than Kate or more than Hernandez?
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think I do, so I was kind of looking at that the other day, I'm like, you know what?
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they're going to be higher on my overall than I initially thought, so yeah, yeah, Hernandez is just like, he's, you know, the best high school coach of last week.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't remember another high school pressure project I was this high on this early.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I know I haven't been doing this for 30 years, but it's been a long time.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't, do you think of anybody?
[SPEAKER_01]: recently, like this young that people are already this high on, I can't paint or comes to mind his 20.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, you're a pair as maybe, but it's been several years since I've been this excited.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it pains me as a brewer's fan that this is all happening in division.
[SPEAKER_02]: I sort of have to marvel at it and try not to be angry.
[SPEAKER_02]: But also, you know, just as an aside,
[SPEAKER_02]: Corona High School in California, which is where Seth Hernandez went, um, what an unbelievable high school team they have last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Seth Hernandez, Billy Carlson, Brady Ebel, uh, went 30 second overall to the brewers.
[SPEAKER_02]: They had another draft pick, Ethan Binghamen, um, Brady Ebel's dad is Dino Ebel, the third base coach for the Dodgers.
[SPEAKER_02]: So just a stacked high school team too.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like they had a couple more guys like, you know, a few years ago from Corona as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't remember who they were at this point, but it's like every year or two, you know, I'm yeah, there's Corona high school popping up again.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, definitely one of those names you see, you know, pretty high up in the draft every year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Somebody's coming from out of Corona.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I was, you know, imagining against that team last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was just me, Seth Hernandez, like, what do you do as a high school hitter, nothing?
[SPEAKER_01]: You can't, you can't touch that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, minor leagueers can't touch that, what will in high school kids.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, it's, yeah, this is really, really fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: Seth Hernandez,
[SPEAKER_01]: Another guy though, that's, you know, the buddy year younger, he won't even be 19th or just after the season ends on October 1st, that's Kendri Cheria with the Kansas City Royals.
[SPEAKER_01]: Got that gut up to.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're switching in a postseason game in Lowe as a 17 year old last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Overall had a 351 ERA, but you know, 268 FIP, 267X FIP, you know, but look at the strike out the walk ratio he had last year and 51 and a third innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, remind you, 17 years old all last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: 63 strikeouts to 7 walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is phenomenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was a 29.9% carry and a nice little 2.4% walkerate this year, basically more of the same 28.6% carry and a 3.9% walkerate, 176 betting average against 177 ERA in his five starts for low A and you got to wonder if he gets the bump to the high A the next month or two here.
[SPEAKER_01]: But a lot of the like here with Kendra Cheerio as well another really fun name and a super, you know, one of the more higher floors you'll see for 18 year old pitching project this given the the feel he already has so
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, how high are you here on Kendrick Curio back?
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a top 100 prospect.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't really think that's a question anymore.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just, do I want to put another teenager, teenage pitching prospect in my top 50?
[SPEAKER_02]: Kendrick Curio, he's sort of not walking anybody sort of reminds me of the crazy 2024 that Zephy Matthews had.
[SPEAKER_02]: Readjust walked nobody.
[SPEAKER_02]: and carry to high 20% strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_02]: I really like Kendri Cheerio's arsenal.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think some of these younger guys it takes a little bit longer to develop something like a plus change up which he has in tow or a plus breaking ball in the curveball.
[SPEAKER_02]: He runs the fastball up to 98.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not exceptional in terms of shape or spin, but he can hum it in at 98 when he needs it.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's got two plus pitches in his back pocket and incredible control.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's sort of Ethan Salacish just on the other side of the ball, you know, he started in the DSL.
[SPEAKER_02]: He pitched like 15 innings there.
[SPEAKER_02]: They bumped into the Arizona complex, pitched a little bit there, and they bumped into single A.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm not expecting him to crater in the same way that Ethan Salac did for a year or two there, but the progression has been really aggressive, and I'm really excited.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's a strong signal of what the royals think of him as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely and yeah, he's definitely earned every promotion he's got and it's again he was pitching well in lowway last year down the stretch as a 17 year old and has cared that over in this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I guess you can say he's a little undersized, you know, maybe you can go that route if you wanted to.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not like super concerned by it, but just given the fact that you mentioned obviously the feel is there the command and control or both really, really impressive it'd be impressive if he was 22.
[SPEAKER_01]: what alone, you know, 18 years old, and then you mentioned, you know, the good stuff here, the being able to, you know, throw that curve ball, you know, good feel first change up, you know, the velocity on as fastball.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the blend of ceiling and floor here is as pretty impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's the thing you see.
[SPEAKER_01]: that often from a pitching prospect this young.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, definitely 100% great.
[SPEAKER_01]: Cheerio one is absolutely a top 100 prospect.
[SPEAKER_01]: I believe I have him around 75 right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm about to do the same thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: You are I'm like, how high do I really want to go on Cheerio?
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it might be culture to 50 then 100 at a time.
[SPEAKER_01]: My next thing they does come out.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I'm thinking I'm leaning that way.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, he's given me no reason to not do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's not the only fun teenage pitching project in this Kansas City Royal System.
[SPEAKER_01]: David Shields is another one, one level higher than Cheerio currently in high A as a 19 year old.
[SPEAKER_01]: He will turn 20 near the end of the season in the early part of September.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was their second round pick last two years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he used me 41st overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: out of Mount Lebanon High School in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, had a 238 ERA last year in 19 starts, 18 of those were in low A, and then this year getting that bump to high A, for six starts, 26 and two thirds innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Another pretty good at 270 ERA 105 whip, eight and a half percent walk rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: and a 33.7% strikeout rate, you know, a little bit bigger here.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a lefty 62, you know, about 210 to 15.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a little bit bigger than Cheerio.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Cheerio is the same overall arsenal as Cheerio, but another guy that, you know, really good command and control.
[SPEAKER_01]: profile here as well with David Shields, you know, that's how we're going to feel for spins.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of wonder, you know, I think the big question that's in a lot of different, you know, evaluations on the fastball, that's kind of this kind of the extractor here, but, you know, what, what are you thinking that fastball with the shield here?
[SPEAKER_01]: What are your thoughts overall?
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think he's in that same, I'm assuming you have material over him, but do you think Shields kind of is close to Cheerio and Rankings right now?
[SPEAKER_02]: No, not for me.
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't do it.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm sort of a fastball supremacist as it were.
[SPEAKER_02]: In the sense that I really think you need a good fastball and if you don't have one, you better have a variety of them to throw just to keep hitters off balance.
[SPEAKER_02]: And David Shields, I love the slider.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the slider is really good.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I think the change up can be good enough to really help neutralize rightes and avoid some platoon issues there.
[SPEAKER_02]: But the fastball, you know, it sits 90 91, which is a real danger zone.
[SPEAKER_02]: Everybody in major league baseball can hit 90 91.
[SPEAKER_02]: Even if it has outlier movement traits.
[SPEAKER_02]: So what you're really hoping for with David Shields is that he takes a jump forward physically, which isn't entirely out of the question for somebody that is yet to crest.
[SPEAKER_02]: 20.
[SPEAKER_02]: A fastball velocity, we've seen these teams get so much better at coaxing fastball velocity out.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm bullish on them in the sense that I like all of the pieces around it, but I think it really is a question of whether or not the fastball gets there and right now it's not there for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 100% agree on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: If it, if he can get up and select the mid 90s, we'll be talking about him in a much different sense.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I like him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have him ranked fairly high, but yeah, not as high as cheering.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I have shields in my top 150, but yeah, if you were to get that fastball in a better overall spot.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'd be even more excited.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's like, you said, there's some good there.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, that he can build off of that, I think that can help get him through right now and dominate those lower level hitters.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, when you get up, you know, double-later, below, I think you guys need to see that velocity.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even if he's like 93, 94, I think that'll play.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, he must, 99, 91.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I could probably go, no, I'm kidding, I can't go right ahead.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm kidding, but, you know, most everybody else,
[SPEAKER_01]: No, I wonder what I would do against 91, maybe a foul tip or two, but probably not that's a bumming.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would love to see, like you and I, our bats feet would be, you know, like two average guys that have played, but obviously aren't playing now to see what our bats feet is.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like do you think...
[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, do you think over under like 50 miles an hour for bats feet for us?
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I can rip it over 50, yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't really know.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's something that, you know, like, I've thrown at a radar gun and gotten my fastball red, but that speed's not something you can really measure at home.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's no bat speed reader to thing at the game at the, the, uh, mindily ball parks, but sometimes with the, you know, get your speed thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no guest your bat speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: That'd be awesome though.
[SPEAKER_01]: Big new business idea.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're on the top of the hair pack million million dollar idea.
[SPEAKER_01]: We just thought
[SPEAKER_02]: I would, you know, but one thing I'll say is I would be unsurprised to see David Shields take a sort of Connolly early type jump where he just shows up after one off season and is sitting 94.95 with a cup of mile an hour jump.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's not entirely out of the question.
[SPEAKER_02]: But until I see it, you know, it's really hard for me to buy in.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I love that you brought up calmly early because, you know, obviously as Red Sox guy, I liked him, but I was like, when I saw him, I was like, I saw him like right before he made that kind of leap to being where he is now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I was like, all right, he's fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's decent.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was blown away like this guy could be like, I got number four number five started.
[SPEAKER_01]: I wasn't thinking to be like upper half of the rotation guy like he might be at this point or it could be.
[SPEAKER_01]: But then he made those tribes and I'm like, wow, I think I this guy I like him more than when I saw him I saw him live a few times So yeah, I let the you brought up early.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that could be a the you know Similar trajectory here for for David Shield, so I like that
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, two more names here will go north of the border.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, at least first Major League team, he's not pitching north of the border right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is in, actually, that should technically he is north of the border out there.
[SPEAKER_01]: But in Vancouver, that is Johnny King currently in high A will be 20 years old in another two months or so in late July and off to a.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, kind of an interesting start town in hi a six starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's only going about three innings per star 17 a third total innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Nice little 104 ERA 115 whip and a one night team batting average against 34% K rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: That all looks great.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then you get to the walk rate, which currently pushing 18% and last year he was about 14%
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, it was around 18% once he got up from the complex up to high A.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I guide that's got some pretty good upside here.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's pretty, you know, pretty strong.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's another lefty six three pretty strong.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not like, you know, super predictable frame, but you know, already semi filled.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll maybe a little bit more projection left.
[SPEAKER_01]: But a lot of fun in the profile here, but Pan that walk rate, you know, it's hard for me to get past that walk rate with
[SPEAKER_01]: I really enjoy watching Johnny King pitch.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's a great.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's probably a leverage reliever.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think he's actually a pretty good foil for David Shields, in the sense that he has the juice on the fastball, and he has really nasty stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: But you would really love for him to have the polish that David Shields does.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so there's a real question of, do you prefer sort of all gas no breaks or, you know, easy on the accelerator and heavy foot on the break?
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a philosophical question.
[SPEAKER_02]: Johnny King for whatever reason.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's not the arm action that's the same, but he just reminds me a little bit of Josh Hader.
[SPEAKER_02]: The left side velocity and some deception there, the drop and drive, and maybe that's why I see a levered reliever so clearly that in the 18% walk rate.
[SPEAKER_02]: But until he can sort of clean that up and be in the zone more often, I'm a little bit hesitant to push him much further than 125 this.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think I have him in a similar range, and I think he's a guy that I've gotten churped at from people on whether they'd be commenting on the article itself or on Twitter or even in my discord where it's like, oh, why don't you have King Hire, there's always a handful of guys every update where
[SPEAKER_01]: you get churped at.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think King's when I got that I've been tripped at more than once over the last year or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, I just I've been burned by this type too many times.
[SPEAKER_01]: Where we're all right, he'll he's got the you know good fast Paul breaking ball combination, you know struggles to get that change up and you start to land that and miss bats with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, that walk rate, you know, I've started to really dial back my ranking on this type of profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this bucket is just not one that I'd like to go all in on until they show me either A, you know, more so the, you know, improve that community control, establish the third pitch or both and oftentimes it's hard to, for a lot of these guys to do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, he's fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree with that he's really fun to watch and it could be a guy that has a, you know, pretty high key rate as a reliever, but I say it's at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: 50, 50s, you know, start at a virtual labor at this point with it trending towards a labor, you know, if it doesn't clean up some of these areas of concern, we'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: But try to try to some pretty good with theching development over the last handful years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, and it gives me some confidence, you know, better than they used to be.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, we'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last name here got that's not even 20 yet and it's on his third organization You know that is Yorker Vajardo now with the St. Louis Cardinals were signed by the white socks They went to the red socks and now to the Cardinals She's been bouncing around a few times, you know
[SPEAKER_01]: So one hand you can be like, all right, well, nobody wants them to the other hand.
[SPEAKER_01]: You could be like, all right, well, he's a really desirable trade trade everybody wants, which I think it's definitely more of the latter than the former there, but is he kind of dominated everywhere he went and he was a guy that was a really exciting get for the red socks when they got him, you know, before 2025 got that showed a lot of promise in the DSL.
[SPEAKER_01]: that previous season, and then, you know, it's very well in the red sex Oregon as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 225 ERA in the 72 innings between the complex and low A and now obviously with the St. Louis and off to a pretty good start there too, 24 and two third innings this year in high A, he's got a 146 ERA, a 114 whip, a 2.9% walk rate, which is really cool to see after being, you know, right around 99 and a half percent last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: and a 33.3% straight gut rate as well is a really fun arm, you know, the guy that doesn't I don't think he has that one dominant pitch, but he has got a pretty good fastball breaking ball change of combination.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I got that, you know, I think has really cleaned up the net never, you know, he never had huge issues in this area, but just the fact that he's dropped that walk away a ton this year, showing even better, you know, command and strike throwing ability, you know, for someone his age is really, really cool to see.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's a lot of good building blocks here with with the Jardos, so what do you think of him back?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, coming into the year, I had it in my mind that he was trending and reliever.
[SPEAKER_02]: Part of that has to do with the sort of wippy arm action.
[SPEAKER_02]: Part of that has to do with a walk rate of almost 10%.
[SPEAKER_02]: Part of that was because his fastball just wasn't getting whiffs opposing batters were basically Steven Kwan against him and his fastball making contact in the zone like 90% of the time.
[SPEAKER_02]: Which really scared me, every time I do a show, I walk away with some homework and what that homework is going to be this time is really diving into Faharto's fastball and whether or not he has changed the shape of it to induce more with.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've always really liked the slider, it's sort of a gyroish action and I think the change up could be pretty good.
[SPEAKER_02]: I do think he's walking a tight rope there of starter or relief.
[SPEAKER_02]: already made a couple of appearances out of the bullpen.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not sure if that's innings management or what.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not uncommon for him to come out of the bullpen.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I like him.
[SPEAKER_02]: I have my homework to do on the fast while he throws it hard, which is a plus.
[SPEAKER_02]: So any improvement on shape would really, really unlock some stuff for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely, I say he's a fun arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was a really exciting get when the Red Sox traded for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see what St. Louis can do.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, high in bloom, run in the show there now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And they've been trading for it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they got burning Clark from the Red Sox as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's the night a couple red Sox pitching prospects.
[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously, they've kind of been we stocking that farm system.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, we'll see what the path is here for a Frigardeau.
[SPEAKER_01]: Really exciting arm for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, that's going to wrap us up though, right around that one hour mark back, as usual, it's always a pleasure talking with you always pleasure chatting ball of the, what do you, what are you going on right now?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, thanks for having me on.
[SPEAKER_02]: This, uh, the episode was right up my alley.
[SPEAKER_02]: I host a podcast called The Prospect Promotion incentive where my co-host, Scully and I break down every promotion across every level, every week.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a lot of fun.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a good way to keep tabs on who's playing well and earning that promotion.
[SPEAKER_02]: You can read all of my written work at thedynastidugout.com or on my Twitter at upper underscore back.
[SPEAKER_01]: Awesome.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, if you're not following back, change that immediately, you know, very smart guy, very great guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: We, I've shared a house with this guy for for a week with him in scholarly and clay, out in Arizona, you know, probably will do so again in the near future as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So definitely be following back, you know, follow the the podcast and all his work and obviously clicks work at the dice that I got one of the best sources in the business.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be back with you all again next week, but until then, everyone take care.