[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's up, everyone?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed podcast brought to you by Rotobar.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 449.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to be diving into my brand new top 500 dinosaur rankings update in this episode, including some notable risers and followers.
[SPEAKER_01]: But first, the usual housekeeping.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can follow me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB.
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[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's dive into the rankings now.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's what live on Thursday on my Patreon and then got the OBP coming up as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Drop top 500 prospect rankings earlier in the week.
[SPEAKER_01]: We draft what come out over the weekend.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of rankings updates here is about, you know, right around a month into the season or a little more and we already got a bunch of
[SPEAKER_01]: I guess I'm really big names off the slow start, some surprising names as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll start with, I wanted to get to four names that kind of dropped down my list at decent bits in this month, starting with Pete Crow Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Washington 241 307 362 right now in 128 plate appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: Three home runs 60.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's still giving you a little bit there.
[SPEAKER_01]: But really kind of carrying over the second half struggles he had last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you recall, PCA was off to a phenomenal start.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, before the officer break at 25 home runs 27 steels after the officer breaks six and eight with a two 16 262 372 slash line and that's a really just a continuation of that, I mean,
[SPEAKER_01]: PCA is still a very valuable real-life player for the Cubs.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, obviously one of the best defenders in the entire game of the value he brings from being a truly elite top of the, you know, top-scale defense center fielder is massive to the Cubs.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also, you know, phenomenal athlete, you know, high sprint speed, ninety-third percent tile there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he still brings a lot of good, you know, to the Cubs, but from fancy premises, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, boil that down to, in fact, he's incredibly aggressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's gotten even worse this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a 45.8% chase rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was right around the 41 and a half percent in both 2024 and 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's jumped even higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's just tough to sustain offensive success when you're chasing that option.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen that happen many times before.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, these guys with higher chase rates causing notable peaks and valleys.
[SPEAKER_01]: And usually more valleys than peaks.
[SPEAKER_01]: with PCA, are the contact rates terrible?
[SPEAKER_01]: No, you know, he's 80 and a half percent in his own contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: He just hair over 70 percent overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, those are both below average, but they're not, you know, in the red flag territory, as I like to call it, neither one of those are super concerning.
[SPEAKER_01]: It just simply boils down to he doesn't draw a lot of walks, though he is walking a little bit more than usual, but it doesn't draw a lot of walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: The K-Rate is up near 30 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you got to wonder, can PCA find some, some middle ground here?
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's fair to, you know, even expect him to come close to that first half production last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, everything was going right for PCA.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't think he's ever going to be a, you know, user like a near 40, 40 pace.
[SPEAKER_01]: before the ulcer break last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't think any of us should be expecting him to return to that level.
[SPEAKER_01]: But can he find somewhere in the middle of like the first half last year, in the second half last year, or the first half last year, in the first half this year?
[SPEAKER_01]: I, you know, where he's just like, all right, maybe he's more of a guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: upper, you know, 15 to 20 homer guy with 30 steals.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, is the average ever going to be good?
[SPEAKER_01]: No, probably not.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think each ace is too much to do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been kind of consistently in that 240 ish range, give or take, you know, 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was 237, 2025, 247 this year, 241.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's probably a fair, you know, range to expect, you know, 240 give or take.
[SPEAKER_01]: All we piece, then we're going to be great.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean,
[SPEAKER_01]: probably never rises above, you know, being just over 300, probably be under 300, some seasons as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think he's going to get it going a little bit from here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, not to, you know, first half of 2025 levels, but he's actually hitting them all harder than he ever has right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a 91.2 mile an hour average exit velocity.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a career high.
[SPEAKER_01]: 46.8% hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is also career high.
[SPEAKER_01]: But his angles have not been as great this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why the barrel rate has dropped from 13% last year to 7.5% this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: You see that the pull air rate went from a little over 30% to down to around 20% air rate has dropped from 66.5%.
[SPEAKER_01]: to 54 and a half percent, you know, so 12% more ground balls.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still pulling at a high clip, but just not getting them all in the air as frequently.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, if you can get back to elevating a bit more as he did last year and I think that can really unlock more of that power because again, he's hitting them all hard and the contact rates aren't terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: So PCA, in my opinion, is definitely better than last year or second half and this year first.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, you know, this is, this is kind of like the low end of what you're going to get, you know, through the peaks of milk.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the valleys, but there's going to be some peaks.
[SPEAKER_01]: maybe not early 2025 peaks, but I still think he's a get it going, but is he that, you know, top 40, dietacy assets, stud?
[SPEAKER_01]: No, and he's still a top 100 guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still have him, you know, well inside of my top 100.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still in my top 70, but I think
[SPEAKER_01]: in that 50 to 60 ratings where he could settle in.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got it because they'll give you a 20 home runs, 30 steals, you know, hopefully an average that stays in that 240 range doesn't, you know, drop down to 210 or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's a, you know, I'm not like running out to get PCA and I actually sold him this off season in my home keeper league, but
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not opposed to buying low right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's some skeptics out there kind of wondering, you know, was last year's first I've just completely fluky.
[SPEAKER_01]: And no, I don't really was completely fluky.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's gonna happen again, but there's still a talented player in here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you can get him for like a non-top 100 price tag, which I think might be possible right now this given, you know, how we badly start at the season, I would at least kick the tires on buying low on P.C.
[SPEAKER_01]: Another outfielder off to a pretty rough start, Jared Durran.
[SPEAKER_01]: He dropped, as she out of my top 100, barely, he went from 37 to 101, and Durran was actually a guy that I was looking to buy this past off season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's not looking great so far, but I think last year, people like the perceived values seem to drop more than it should have last year and yeah, that looks great now in retrospect, but at the time this off season, people were talking about his 2025, but it was a bad year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And while it wasn't as good as just 2024, it was still, you know, 86 runs, 16 home runs, 24 steals, 256, 33, 24, 42.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's not either worldly, that's not as great as 2024, but that's nothing to scoff that either.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, that's still a solid season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I thought he'd bounce back a little bit, maybe, you know, be somewhere in the middle of 2024 and 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it more to do with skills?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it more to do with fact that his playing time hasn't been super consistent?
[SPEAKER_01]: No, actually it hasn't been a little more recently over the last week or two, but for the by-large this year, he's beginning more off days than usual because of that outfield log jam that the Red Sox currently have.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, especially against Lafay so get
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, a day off, you know, more frequently than not, but, you know, the metrics are still, you know, fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, he's still running a barrel rate, right around nine and a half percent, which is where he's been each of the last three seasons, average EV over 90 miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, same thing, each of the last three seasons, over 90 miles an hour there, hard hit rates are around 42 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, so quality contact as a whole is still above average.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, but the issue
[SPEAKER_01]: In 2022 through 2025 he was above average in zone contact between 83 and 86% last year was 83 and a half percent this year I mean it's not a terrible mark when it has dropped to 79% he's chasing a little bit more Chase Rich dropped I mean it should be as risen three and a half percent is overall contact rate is the worst of his career at 64.4% so
[SPEAKER_01]: withing more often chasing more often.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still think there's a decent player here.
[SPEAKER_01]: At this point though, it feels like a change of scenery would do to ran.
[SPEAKER_01]: It'd be wonderful first-is career.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been a little rough in Boston.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's been some rough parts for him, obviously, but I think maybe he gets insrated, which I think could happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Boston could
[SPEAKER_01]: pretty soon here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they've already fired all the coaches and stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, wholesale changes could be or more wholesale changes could be coming into this Red Sox team.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I could see Duran traded absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe that could be the best case for his value.
[SPEAKER_01]: At this point, what am I looking to do with him in dynasty?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm kind of in a waiting scene mode.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's again, I think there's a better player here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's still a fast guy, 96% out of sprint speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're still a talented player right here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bat speed is 78% tile.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm good quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't know if that rebound is going to happen in Boston.
[SPEAKER_01]: but is it wise to buy low and then try and then hope for that value to increase due to a fresh start, change of scenery, helping them out?
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, that's wise.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I have to run and actually the same my homekeeper league.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still have them, I had a few trade offers out there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was trying to get rid of them for some draft picks or for a pitcher and is nobody bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I still have him, I've got kind of just, he's on my bench most days at at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I'm kind of starting other guys in my, you know, the outfield and utility spots is because Drain ain't giving you much.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's hitting 17231-250, 1 bomb five steals.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not a lot of good on the surface here for Drain.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not out on Doran by any means.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably getting continue falling.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you can get him for, like a top 150 price tag, something like that, I'm not opposed.
[SPEAKER_01]: But until he gets at a Boston or the situation, like maybe they trade somebody else and he can kind of get more consistent playing time.
[SPEAKER_01]: Which again, has happened recently, so maybe there's a, you know, a ray of hope there,
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just not sure that big turnaround is going to come as a member of the Boston Red Sox.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, couple of infielders now starting with Luke Kieshal.
[SPEAKER_01]: Another guy that I was really high on.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think a lot of people were really high on entering the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he was a trendy draft picks in red draft leagues, a, you know, a pretty trendy dynasty buy, but that this is not worked out well so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: He dropped from 74 to 119 in this update for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's really the big thing for Kishel.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is not impacting the ball whatsoever.
[SPEAKER_01]: On one hand, contact is still good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's a well above average contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's actually improved his contact rates from last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: 93 and 1.5% in zone, 86.3% overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: Chase rate has got up a little bit, but still better than the average chase rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Stratica rate only 16 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: Any is a 90% to out of sprint speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: So still some good in the profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: Mainly, again, contact and approach, but the quality of contact has just been so poor that it hasn't mattered whatsoever.
[SPEAKER_01]: 3.1% and barrel rate 84.1 mile an hour average EV is max only 105.
[SPEAKER_01]: and he has a 23.7% hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So with Kishol, he was never known as, he's never been known as a Papagai.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that, I don't think anybody was expect to come to magically become a 25 homer guy, but,
[SPEAKER_01]: I think myself and probably a lot of other people thought, all right, give me 15, give me somewhere in the mid teens, and to go along with the good average and all the steals, like you could be a 15, 30 guy with a high average.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of where I thought, that's kind of what we saw last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was on a 13, 14 homer pace as a rookie and had 14 steals, so he's on over a 40 steal pace.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had 302, with a 382, OBP.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, you know, that's kind of what we expected he could be over a full season, but the quality of contact has dropped across the board from being below average to bottom of the barrel.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's at a third percentile hard hit rate, third percentile average EV, ex-slug ain't do it in many favors, average 327, so it's not like he's been just unlucky or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he's just not impacting the ball at the plain and simple.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the issue with usual.
[SPEAKER_01]: So can he correct that?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we've seen guys add power, like Brace Terrang is a big example of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen guys add power, but he's way down there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you can't be this low in quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: Tell me another guy that's been like, bottom of the barrel in quality of contact, that's been a top 100 guy overall for fantasy.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's very, very rare.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't think of anybody off top of my head.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, like Jacob Wilson's down here, and that really limits his value, at least he shall run, Wilson doesn't really run.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Wilson's also got his hitting for much higher average than Kishal is right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I don't know, Kishal is a hard one for me right now because I'm not out by any means, but I'm skeptical because I need to see that quality of conduct be there at least a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't be one of the worst quality of contact guys in the league.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm asking, if you're below average, Kishal, fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: But don't be third percentile hard yet, third percentile average EV.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that right now, are you even a Ted Homer guy at this point?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not so sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still only 23 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still playing regularly in the contact, the defense, the speed, as keeping him in there.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's in buff average defense of second baseman, though the arm strength ain't great, but he's still providing value to the twins in other ways, and it's not like there.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a contending team this year so they can, you know, forward keep writing him out there and hopefully he works.
[SPEAKER_01]: There is offensive struggles, but I think it's at a tough investment right now to go after Luke Kiesho, because of those quality of contact concerns, have me a bit hesitant.
[SPEAKER_01]: So not out by any means, he's still in the 23, but he's definitely one that's got been falling on my rankings this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we'll continue to do so.
[SPEAKER_01]: until he starts impacting the ball at least a little bit more.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the other guy might be the most peculiar, you know, follower of these four that I'm talking about in this episode.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Michael Bush.
[SPEAKER_01]: What the bleep has happened to Michael Bush this season?
[SPEAKER_01]: And you look under the hood, it's pretty peculiar.
[SPEAKER_01]: So on the surface, 132 plate appearances, he's slashing 193, 295, 281, two home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's pop the hood.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's already bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's pop the hood.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's start with approach 11.4% walk rate, career best.
[SPEAKER_01]: 22.7% district of rate, career best.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, those are fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Chase rate has gone up, but it still around the gabbards.
[SPEAKER_01]: So no issues there.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're free 24.8% career best mark.
[SPEAKER_01]: Zone contact rate 85.2% career best mark.
[SPEAKER_01]: So far, you're like, it's great.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's having career best approach, career best contact, even better than last year in his breakout year for the Cubs, but then we get to the quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: He just forget how to hit the ball heart.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, what is going this so odd?
[SPEAKER_01]: For a guy that had been trending up at a quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of a sudden, it's not only stop the upward trend, but completely fall off the cliff.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a super odd, you know, he had been, so these are his, is a quality of conflict year over year.
[SPEAKER_01]: In 2023, 89.1 mile an hour average EV, and then I went up to 89.9, 92.2 last year, down to 85.2 miles an hour this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bear all right, 6.5, 11.2, 17.1, 8.2, hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, if you're 50%, that was only in 406 $5, but then when the 39.9% jumped to 47.3% last year, down to 32.9%.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a nearly 15% drop in a hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: For God that had been, you know, even in the minor leagues, like always in above average to plus quality of contact hitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: To all of a sudden, being one of the worst in the league, what's average
[SPEAKER_01]: 7th percentile there, he is 20th percentile and hard hit rate, barrel rates actually close to league average, but I mean, what has gone on?
[SPEAKER_01]: This is really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to really say why.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's still putting the bat on the ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not striking out at a alarming clip.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, again, the rest of the profile was pretty good, but he's just not driving the ball as much
[SPEAKER_01]: as he ever has.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's weird.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't give like a reason as to why the quality context is falling off so drastically this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also hitting a lot more ground balls, which isn't helping.
[SPEAKER_01]: The ground ball rates jump 12%.
[SPEAKER_01]: So air rates down from 63.8 to 51.8, pull rates down about 5.5% and then pull air rate down nearly 10%.
[SPEAKER_01]: So not only is he not hitting
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, I deal angles to maximize power in general.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why he's got two home runs right now in a hundred and thirty two point appearances and not not the one of those are pulled one was the center field and one was the left center.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't know, is he hurt?
[SPEAKER_01]: I have not heard anything, maybe he's playing through an injury, which wouldn't make a lot of sense because the cubs have a lot of options, mainly Jonathan Long in waiting in Triple A.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if Bush was really working through something,
[SPEAKER_01]: It would make so much sense as put them on the IL bring up long.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the triple life of them is pretty loaded right now, you know, they get Kevin out concerted down there as well, Pedro Ramirez.
[SPEAKER_01]: They have guys that come in and, you know, handle, you know, they could, they could still fill out a good lineup here if they had to put Michael Bush on the IL.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not sure if that's the case.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to speculate on injury.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't know, I can't think any other thing that would cause this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think the skill was for Bush if it's eroded over an off season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Especially when he was on an upward trend, it wasn't like he was on a downward trend.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the trend got worse, he was going the other way.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm buying Michael Bush until I hear a definitive reason that always got a nagging wrist injury or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Until I hear something like that, you know, I'm going to still look to buy Michael Bush.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I believe in what we saw for him last year, and I think he said that bounce back.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a rough look right now, obviously, but I think you can get him for a pretty realistic price tag.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm 100% looking to buy Michael Bush.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's much better than this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I believe in last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he's going to be turning it around here pretty soon as the weather gets warmer here.
[SPEAKER_01]: At least I hope.
[SPEAKER_01]: As I do have a share of Michael Bush, maybe two shares in Dioceo League, so hopefully he can turn it around and this is the low point of the season for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's go over to some risers now, you know, starting with, you know, kind of that the three bigger, you know, sexier names to talk about here, I think the three notable names out of all these names, I'll talk about today, Ben Rice, South Stewart, and Kim Schlittler.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's start with Ben Rice, because if you saw my tweet when I put out my rankings on Thursday,
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that maybe auto-high?
[SPEAKER_01]: Sure, some might think that I don't.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it bold, sure?
[SPEAKER_01]: But...
[SPEAKER_01]: Ben Rice has backed it up.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was obviously a very trendy, hypey name, hypey, that's a new word, but hype.name had probably been a way to say that.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this offseason is ADP rose to insane heights and redraft leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone wanted Ben Rice.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was pumping him up and I was far from the only analyst that was.
[SPEAKER_01]: But even the most, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: And I was probably one of the bigger ones.
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably didn't expect him to be this good.
[SPEAKER_01]: We thought he'd be great, but he's joining the elite.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I was just, he'd come like a top 25 overall guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now, after the metrics last year, the metrics this year, the overall performance this year, everything about rice is trending in the positive way drastically right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: 327, 443, 714 slash line, 10 home runs, and 122 plate appearances, and hey, he can hit lefties.
[SPEAKER_01]: You see that air in moon?
[SPEAKER_01]: Rice can hit lefties of 370, 452, 815 slash line with four bombs, and 31 plate appearances against lefties, you know.
[SPEAKER_01]: metrics are even probably even more impressive than the stat line, which is kind of hard to say, but it really is the case, because everything there's so much red on this avant page, quality of contact is phenomenal, 20.3% barrel rate, 95 mile an hour average EV,
[SPEAKER_01]: 60.9% hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's nearly doubled his walk rate from 9.4 to 17.2%.
[SPEAKER_01]: K rate has gone up, not alarming at all.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's around 25%, so no huge worries there.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still making plenty of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's above average, both inzone and overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: Chase rates down to 20%.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's been around around 20, 22% every year of his career.
[SPEAKER_01]: So in fact, he's still above average contact with elite quality of contact and you know really good pull air rate as well 53.5% pull rate 23.2% pull air He is getting more ground balls in general, but still right around a league average air rate, but when he does get it in the air, he's getting into that poor side Pretty consistently, which obviously means good things at Yankee Stadium So at this point he is in that top tier
[SPEAKER_01]: of Dynastee First Baseman with Kurtz with Vlad.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's behind them for me right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: As again, Kurtz, I have at number where I've got Kurtz's 15.
[SPEAKER_01]: Vlad is 19 and Rice is 24, but that's the top tier.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this next guy is kind of like fringy in that top tier, but probably more so in tier two, but he's threatening to get into it as well, but I'll get this guy in a second.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Rice, I think definitely has joined that top tier.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you might be able to make it, I mean, it's crazy that it sounds.
[SPEAKER_01]: Could you make the case for Rice over of Ladder now?
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's crazy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I do have Ladder head, but Ladder, I mean, Vlad's head number high average right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: We still hit them all super hard, but he's still hitting too many ground balls.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's not, he's limited due to his home rental.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Rice is hitting for average and getting to those home runs,
[SPEAKER_01]: is it crazy to say that rice could bleed for a cloud here and that's no slight at Vlad, but man, you gotta give me the home runs, Vlad.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even just giving me the 20s where you've been at for a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you're gonna give me less than that, I can't give you that top 20 ranking anymore.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe he falls out of the top 20 and rice jumps into the top 20.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not crazy to say that that could happen at some point this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe even next month's update.
[SPEAKER_01]: So rice, if any doubt is out there,
[SPEAKER_01]: You've any doubt should have been squashed with how he has started this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, only that he lived up to the hype, he blew through the doors.
[SPEAKER_01]: He blew the doors right off the hinges and has proven that he's legit and only as he legit, he is a legit stud.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ben Rice is legit top 25.
[SPEAKER_01]: Might be a little abold, but I firmly believe in it.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're the guy that I was just alluding to, South Stewart.
[SPEAKER_01]: What has started this season for South Stewart?
[SPEAKER_01]: I had them up to 30.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was, where was he last update?
[SPEAKER_01]: So 104, last update, up to 30, this update.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, might be bold.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I've always been a South Stewart guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now even when I was breaking him as a prospect,
[SPEAKER_01]: I've always been a South Stuart guy and the metrics are really good right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Coati of contact, 21% barrel rate, 91 and a half mile an hour average EV, 46% hard hit rate, walk in the carate, very good as there as well, 13% walk rate, 18 and a half percent strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's stealing bags too.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got seven steals this year, to go along with nine home runs,
[SPEAKER_01]: five, 70 slash line, you know, contact skills.
[SPEAKER_01]: You may not quite as good there as a race is, but he's right around the garage in terms of overall contact rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Zone is a little actually a little below league average, but I'm not concerned by that whatsoever.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, great American ballpark, where he plays half of his games, notable Babbit boost, especially with his level of quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he can make that work
[SPEAKER_01]: He's at 8281 right now, you know, the XBA, X-Log are backing up his performance, they're almost identical to the two that the decimal point of his surface stats, 281 average in a 570 slug, 282 XBA, and a 569 X-Log, so already 0.001 off on both of those.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, the approach is good, you know, the bad-a-ball angles are solid, you know, especially gets a ball in the E pretty consistently, pull your rate, the 16% and that's fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: You would actually take off if you pulled the ball more, his pull rates are only 31 and half per cent.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year's a rookie, it was 52 and a half per cent, but still, he's on pace for over 30 or on runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now, he's actually on pace for over 40 hundred runs actually, I should say, he's on pace for 30 steals.
[SPEAKER_01]: Burner, no, is he the above average runner?
[SPEAKER_01]: No, he's a smart runner.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's shown, and even the minor leagues, he was a guy that was steel, you know, handful of bags here, handful of bags there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So could he be a 15 and 20 steel guy?
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: Early in his career, I think he absolutely could be.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he put up a 40, 20 year this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not crazy to say.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe fall short of that 40 going runs, but even let's say it's 35 and 17.
[SPEAKER_01]: with a deciminer runs, you know, he's got plenty of RBI already, he's already the 29 RBI.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if let's say he gets up to like 90, 95 runs, 105, 110 RBI with a 270 average.
[SPEAKER_01]: But let's put that all together.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's say it's 270, you know, with 95 runs, 35 home runs, 110 RBI and 17, 18 steals.
[SPEAKER_01]: That looks pretty damn good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's not crazy to say that that could be his end of season outcome.
[SPEAKER_01]: The skills are there as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't like him quite as much as Ben Rice, but Stuart is legit.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a really good minor league career.
[SPEAKER_01]: Underlying metrics are pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: No real red flags in the profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: Good ballpark, great ballpark.
[SPEAKER_01]: Good lineup around him.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a fun lineup.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a Cincinnati.
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets some good ball players there.
[SPEAKER_01]: some talented young players there like L.D.
[SPEAKER_01]: The other crews, for example.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Stewart is a definite buy for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know you're gonna be buying high at this point, but this is one of the scenarios where I'm okay buying high, because I am a believer in self-store.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he's here to stay as a top 40 dynasty asset.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, and then Cam Schlittler, the big pitching riser, this update, you know, he's now a top 10
[SPEAKER_01]: Dynasty starting pitcher for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I tweeted that out earlier, you know, today on Thursday as well, that I now have Slotor as a top 10 dynasty starting pitcher.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's above some big names.
[SPEAKER_01]: I heat jumped a lot of notable names.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, pictures is always super deep at the top.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it's warranted with how he started this career.
[SPEAKER_01]: This year, he's been one of the best pictures in baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: So for my dynasty starting pitcher rankings, it goes skins one, school two, crochet, I still have it three, I'm not super concerned there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yo, my motos at four Christopher Sanchez 500 Brown six, Nolan McLean seven, Chase Burns eight, then the Kim Slytler nine, Gilbert 10, Wu 11, Reagan's 12, Missierowski 13, Yury Perez 14, though he did fall 15 spots in my overall, this month kind of like the social circle season for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then Max freed in the 15 spot.
[SPEAKER_01]: So two Yankees in the top 15.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Schloer, I mean, he's been a beast.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, came up and excelled as a rookie 296 ERA, 122 whip, 84 strikeouts, and 73 innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: This was 14 starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then dominated my red socks in the postseason.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's shown that that was just the start for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: This year in seven starts, 151 ERA,
[SPEAKER_01]: 3.8% walkerate down from 10.2% last year as huge, and then a 31.5% k-rate, which is up about 4% from last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, that walkerate going down.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you know, walks are never a huge issue for Schlittler.
[SPEAKER_01]: But in fact, he's kind of transformed into a well above average community control guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: is huge for his value, because the stuff is really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: He locates it well and you look at, for the most part, you look at his heat maps.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're all pretty tight, especially as fastball as the four semen of cutter and sinker.
[SPEAKER_01]: That four semen, he dials it up to 97.6 on average.
[SPEAKER_01]: sinker is 97.1, cutter 93.7.
[SPEAKER_01]: And those are close to 90% and I think that's actually a quick math here.
[SPEAKER_01]: a 90.1% of his pitches are those three and they're all over 93 miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's coming at you with a lot of velocity and it's has hard for hitters to square it up.
[SPEAKER_01]: The foreseamer has a 175 batting average against cutter 094, singer 154, always
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets plenty of whiffs on that fast ball is actually his best with right off right in that four semen 37 and a half per set.
[SPEAKER_01]: Also has a 37% with right on the curve ball, which is, you know, his fourth most used offering at eight point two per set.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's really fast ball heavy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, mixed in the occasional breaking ball, but hey, he's making it work, you know, it's a lot of velocity.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the fact that he's commands it so well and then the combination of movement profile and command for him is really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a recipe that's working for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has a career 243 ERA, we're now 21 starts into his career.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact that he's striking out a lot of batters here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Walkerate is super low.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean,
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot to like here and I don't see any reason to kind of poo poo to start his career.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, maybe this isn't fully sustainable, but you know, everything under the hood is pretty damn good.
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets ground balls as well, 46 to the half percent ground ball rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to really nitpick anything with Kim Switler right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Chase rate is nearly 40 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's pretty, I mean, that's impressive, regardless of your pitch mix.
[SPEAKER_01]: But one year in the zone, so frequently with, you know, with fast balls, like he can still get guys to chase with not using that many secondarys, but so what he does go outside the zone, he's getting those kidders to chase.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's a super impressive how Schlittler,
[SPEAKER_01]: operates.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a above average wiff rate in zone wiff rates 23%.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's better than the average.
[SPEAKER_01]: This everywhere you look in the profile is either good or really good for a clip, camshaft or so yeah, I am 100% buying this and I think he's an ace moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it'd be almost foolish not to have him as an ace at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: So top 10, 4 camshaft
[SPEAKER_01]: two more names here.
[SPEAKER_01]: The other big pitching riser, probably the biggest in terms of the number of ranking spots that this guy jumped up, is Jose Soriano with the Los Angeles Angels.
[SPEAKER_01]: He jumped
[SPEAKER_01]: Tough to figure out where I want to put him, it's part of me wanting to go higher, but I'm turning out to go too crazy yet, but it's hard not to when you look at the stats, Surad on his put together in his first seven search this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm actually going to say things a little bit differently in an order of stats here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I started with like the K and walk race.
[SPEAKER_01]: 9.8% walk rate, 30.1% K rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So both, you know, striking out a lot of guys,
[SPEAKER_01]: Keeping that walkerate right around 10% race band for the last three seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: So nice to see that big walkerate, I mean, during the big K-rate jump, while keeping the walkerate in the same area, then you get to the ratios, 0.8 for ERA, and then 0.94 whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that state of mouth absolutely not?
[SPEAKER_01]: And it is actually a race 309 right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think that a notable step forward has been taken here with Sorayana.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's a lot to, you know, a lot to like with him before this season too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like the stuff was pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's finally putting it all together now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the biggest improvement is on that sinker, two nerdy batting average against the last year, only 156 this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: His knuckle curve is very good.
[SPEAKER_01]: One on the better breaking balls in all baseball,
[SPEAKER_01]: 167 batting average against and a 49% wiff rate also has a 48% wiff rate in a 0.69 batting average against on his splitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's huge as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And those two were right around 40% last year in terms of wiff rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Neckle curve was 43% splitter was 30 and a half.
[SPEAKER_01]: So
[SPEAKER_01]: He has three pitches under a 170 batting in which against out of his four most used offerings.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then those three pitches combine in our about 70, 71% of his overall pitch usage.
[SPEAKER_01]: And those are his sinker, his splitter, and his knuckle curve.
[SPEAKER_01]: So really, him leaning on those has been huge.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still getting plenty of ground balls too.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's still 56% which is a very good ground ball rate for a pitcher and he's missing bats to like you don't see a 56% ground ball rate in a 34% with rate very often, but that's what he has this year, which it makes sense to in fact that the St. Chris getting ground balls and those the splitter and the knuckle curve are getting those waves.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm buying this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's really impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, as you get it being ace all season, I've probably been against that, but there's a lot of legitimacy here to this breakout.
[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff is really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: It gets ground balls.
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets whiffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this guy is flying up rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he's could maybe be a guy that's like solidified himself being like a top 25 starter moving forward by the end of the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, you kind of come down.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's got to be some aggression here.
[SPEAKER_01]: is he can't stay in a sub one year race, not possible, in the same age, but Sarayata definitely a guy whose value was trending up in a big, big way right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the last thing on him, allowing a lot less hard contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was actually one of his issues, though the stuff was really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was kind of flashy stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he allowed a 91 and a half mile an hour average EV and a 48% hard hit rate last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are down to about 88 miles an hour and 33 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's huge.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm pretty much buying Jose Seriano last name.
[SPEAKER_01]: I wanted to talk about in this episode.
[SPEAKER_01]: Mootataka Murakami tied for the lead lead with 12 home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Very interesting profile to start.
[SPEAKER_01]: Basically, everything we thought about Murakami has been amplified.
[SPEAKER_01]: both sides of the ball, the pros and the cons of an amplified to the max.
[SPEAKER_01]: So quality contact, obviously, tapped it legally at home runs, and he's been hammering the ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: 21 in the half percent barrel rate, 63 percent heart hit rate, 95.2 mile an hour average EV, X thug of 565 over all slug, 564.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are basically the same buddies hitting 236.
[SPEAKER_01]: because the contact rates are super, low.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he is one of the worst contact rates in all baseball at 56.8% zone contact in 66.5%.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he does not chase much.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, he has a much better chase rate than the average at 21 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's walking in an 18.4% clip.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the fact that he's not going out, he's had the zone too often, actually helps.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you've actually you'd see these contact rates that he's he'd be getting 100 or something like that those are just downright terrible contact rates, but he doesn't chase and when he makes contact, he does damage, but still he's hit in 236 now this is very format the pendent of your OBP format right now, 375 OBP 12 home runs 22 runs scored like great, but average length he does take a little bit of a hit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm not sure we ever see him really hit for an average higher than where he's at now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Could he maybe get to like 250 sure I probably cap it there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't see like 26270 with these contact rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the power has been as advertised and then suddenly he had huge power in Japan.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the calling card.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's been immediately translated over to the majors.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's an e-secret percentile bat speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: So everything there has been phenomenal, one of the best power hitters already in the game.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, OPP formats, he's up 100.
[SPEAKER_01]: But for average leagues, I can't go top 100 yet, but he didn't rise from 222 to 137 in this update.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, if you can stomach the 232 40 average, I think you're gonna be pretty happy.
[SPEAKER_01]: with the counting stats that he can provide, obviously not in the stolen base department, but the home runs, the RBI, 23 RBI, and 22 runs towards, maybe he gives you 90 runs, 90 RBI and 40 home runs this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully he can just keep the average respectable, but phenomenal start to the season and to his major league career from when we talk about Murakami.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, he's, you know, I can see by or selling.
[SPEAKER_01]: what you like, what profile you like, what format you're in, they get Advertisers OBP is a big difference here.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I can see so high.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you can get a top 100 price tag for him right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you flip them into, you know, a buy low on someone.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can see you doing that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I get a big name that started off slow.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if you get like I paid a lot of effort
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I would be opposed to selling.
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, if you're an OPP format or you're fine with the 240 average, just want that power, I think all that power is legit.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm fine holding as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of variables there, but, you know, very good start to his career for more economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: You got that could, you know, for 50 100 runs as a rookie, which is just really, really cool to see.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, that's going to wrap up this episode.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's been fun going through my prospect and that it's he rankings these last two episodes I'll back with you again on Tuesday with another episode and I have a guest line up for that one, but until then everyone take care.