WEBVTT 00:00.031 --> 00:25.347 [SPEAKER_05]: M-S-S-W-M-E-D-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E 00:25.799 --> 00:29.183 [SPEAKER_03]: lively week in Washington since we last met. 00:29.663 --> 00:55.772 [SPEAKER_03]: We've had the House to a big story in Washington today is the Alster of Pam Bondi, but close behind it or right beside it is the Alster of the Army Chief and staff all this follows on the Alster of DHS Secretary Kristi Nome and the question I post to you, my fellow potsters is are we better off now than we were 00:55.752 --> 00:57.175 [SPEAKER_03]: 48 hours ago. 00:57.215 --> 01:03.588 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's hard to, um, regret the departure of Pampondi. 01:03.608 --> 01:08.378 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you know, look, and it's having it filled with, um, 01:09.387 --> 01:15.138 [SPEAKER_01]: people who are not qualified for their positions and have made a bunch of things. 01:15.859 --> 01:30.147 [SPEAKER_01]: I put Bondi at the top of the list because the politicization of the justice department is in many ways, I think the most long, lasting, consequential, negative of, 01:30.380 --> 01:35.467 [SPEAKER_01]: Trump's presidency because it's really hard to see how we get back to it. 01:36.408 --> 01:47.763 [SPEAKER_01]: The mass exit of professional prosecutors and professional FBI agents has left both institutions having much more difficulty responding to the threats that we have. 01:48.304 --> 01:55.734 [SPEAKER_01]: But just to put something right on the table, how's he going to get somebody confirmed for this position? 01:55.834 --> 01:57.957 [SPEAKER_01]: Because the first question, 01:57.937 --> 02:10.170 [SPEAKER_01]: from all Democrats are going to be, you know, Pam Bondi told us that she wasn't going to use the Justice Department for political retribution and go after political enemies. 02:10.310 --> 02:15.436 [SPEAKER_01]: And of course, that's exactly what she did under orders from the Commander-in-Chief, who just fired her. 02:16.157 --> 02:22.864 [SPEAKER_01]: And you have a few Republicans, Tom Tillis, and perhaps, uh, Randall. 02:22.844 --> 02:36.295 [SPEAKER_01]: Paul and others who are beginning to buck against Trump and I can see without clear answers to an a clear commitment not to misuse the powers of the Justice Department. 02:36.415 --> 02:39.081 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't see how he's going to get somebody confirmed for this job. 02:39.432 --> 02:40.594 [SPEAKER_04]: Why do you think it matters? 02:40.994 --> 02:41.976 [SPEAKER_04]: Why do you think he cares? 02:41.996 --> 02:46.382 [SPEAKER_04]: He's come to rely on acting as of departments. 02:46.422 --> 02:47.844 [SPEAKER_04]: It seems to be part of the strategy. 02:47.884 --> 02:48.905 [SPEAKER_04]: It was in the first term. 02:49.226 --> 02:51.789 [SPEAKER_04]: It's even more so I think in the second term. 02:52.170 --> 02:53.271 [SPEAKER_04]: I mean, why would we? 02:53.291 --> 02:57.017 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's a time to use the actings for U.S. attorneys didn't get him very far. 02:57.077 --> 03:00.622 [SPEAKER_01]: It got federal courts that tossing those U.S. attorneys out. 03:00.742 --> 03:02.284 [SPEAKER_04]: But it's earned in the cabinet. 03:02.264 --> 03:08.390 [SPEAKER_04]: It's worked at the cabinet level and at the first the top tiers of cabinet levels. 03:08.430 --> 03:11.313 [SPEAKER_04]: And I just wonder why you think it would matter to him. 03:12.414 --> 03:14.016 [SPEAKER_03]: Well, that's a very good question. 03:14.076 --> 03:15.717 [SPEAKER_03]: But I have another question. 03:15.737 --> 03:16.158 [SPEAKER_04]: I don't know. 03:16.178 --> 03:18.040 [SPEAKER_04]: Aren't there limits on how long and acting? 03:18.060 --> 03:18.540 [SPEAKER_01]: 210 days. 03:18.560 --> 03:19.241 [SPEAKER_04]: 210 days. 03:19.741 --> 03:20.562 [SPEAKER_04]: All right. 03:20.742 --> 03:23.845 [SPEAKER_04]: Let's get some into next time. 03:24.406 --> 03:26.007 [SPEAKER_04]: Yeah. 03:26.027 --> 03:26.388 [SPEAKER_03]: Oh my god. 03:26.408 --> 03:26.728 [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah. 03:26.748 --> 03:28.710 [SPEAKER_03]: So meanwhile. 03:28.690 --> 03:29.652 [SPEAKER_03]: There's a war on. 03:29.712 --> 03:36.728 [SPEAKER_03]: And today we've learned at a F-15 or F-16 pilot has been shot down over Iran. 03:37.670 --> 03:43.864 [SPEAKER_03]: We don't know the status of the pilot, but this falls on this quite 03:44.249 --> 03:44.930 [SPEAKER_03]: bizarre. 03:44.971 --> 03:56.976 [SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to call it speech that Trump gave about Iran would seem more like I don't know one of this casual meetings in the Oval Office rather than a speech to the nation. 03:57.076 --> 04:00.503 [SPEAKER_03]: It didn't offer anything new, didn't it? 04:00.635 --> 04:28.161 [SPEAKER_01]: No, I was, I got to say this is one where I was completely wrong because I didn't think the Trump would give a nationwide TV speech to the country unless he had something real and dramatic to announce either he was calling an end to the war from the US side or he was sending in troops or he was going to announce a deal and he did none of that all we got is this sort 04:28.141 --> 04:38.758 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, rehash of word salinity puts out on true social every night, and I don't think that's going to do much to come the unease of the public about where this is going. 04:39.076 --> 04:40.578 [SPEAKER_04]: So Mike, why do you think he gave it? 04:40.598 --> 04:43.682 [SPEAKER_04]: Do you think he had something to say and change his mind at the last minute? 04:44.022 --> 04:48.488 [SPEAKER_04]: Do you think he just wanted to mark the moment, whether he had something to say or not? 04:48.548 --> 04:49.349 [SPEAKER_04]: What, why didn't you do that? 04:49.369 --> 04:51.271 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's a really good question. 04:51.331 --> 04:59.481 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think that, you know, probably a AIDS or saying, you gotta say something, you gotta talk to the country or polls or slipping and somehow they think, 04:59.461 --> 05:09.715 [SPEAKER_01]: that Trump, you know, magically has this hold on at least his base that could bring them on, but, you know, I think it started. 05:09.796 --> 05:11.358 [SPEAKER_01]: It's clearly starting to fray. 05:11.418 --> 05:13.701 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you know, the thought occurred to me. 05:13.721 --> 05:18.047 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, we've used the analogy before Suez, 1956. 05:18.187 --> 05:21.592 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm beginning to think of Iran. 05:21.612 --> 05:23.595 [SPEAKER_01]: This could be Trump's bay of 05:23.575 --> 05:37.720 [SPEAKER_01]: pigs and clear military defeat that, you know, forces us to have never ending covert efforts to topple the Iranian regime, which is what happened after the Bay of Pigs and Cuba. 05:38.037 --> 05:56.181 [SPEAKER_03]: Speaking of covert efforts to undermine the regime, I want to mention an extraordinary story that I wrote about at over at Spikloff newsletter about the CIA role in assassinations against Iran. 05:56.161 --> 06:17.556 [SPEAKER_03]: mean to say against not in Iran, but a former CIA officer by name Kevin Chalker gave an extraordinary interview to David Karpakrakas in New Yorker about his approach to Iranian nuclear scientists, telling them, we'd like you to defect and give you a wonderful new life in America. 06:17.596 --> 06:21.983 [SPEAKER_03]: And that's pretty generous, but if you don't, you're going to die. 06:21.963 --> 06:30.861 [SPEAKER_03]: And according to Chalkers account, those who refused their names were given to the Israelis to take care of. 06:30.982 --> 06:33.767 [SPEAKER_03]: And that's really an extraordinary thing. 06:33.928 --> 06:37.575 [SPEAKER_03]: If you want to get a summary of it, go to the Spike Talk newsletter or 06:38.264 --> 06:41.649 [SPEAKER_03]: go right to the New Yorker and read this extraordinary piece. 06:42.310 --> 06:48.017 [SPEAKER_03]: I want to ask you, Karen, about something else going on in regards to Pam Bondy finding. 06:48.077 --> 06:56.509 [SPEAKER_03]: It was reporting this week that Antifa, which is not an organization, but the 06:56.489 --> 07:02.045 [SPEAKER_03]: they imagine it is or they just want to make believe that it is for political reasons. 07:02.065 --> 07:07.821 [SPEAKER_03]: And Tifa has been put on a list of national intelligence priorities. 07:08.503 --> 07:11.612 [SPEAKER_03]: Tell us a little bit about that bizarre development. 07:11.592 --> 07:28.736 [SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so this is a classified list and what's come up now is that Antifa has been put on it, you know, with an attempt to make Antifa look like a domestic terrorist organization and just for a little bit of background here, there is no domestic terrorist organization list. 07:28.756 --> 07:31.980 [SPEAKER_04]: This is something that Congress has refused to pass. 07:31.960 --> 07:56.938 [SPEAKER_04]: for a number of what I would say are very good reasons and so now the Trump administration is incrementally moving towards making it official that Antifa is a terrorist organization and they did this first with an executive order that Trump issued and now you're seeing it come up on this intelligence report on who organizations are and you can see that what they're trying to do 07:56.918 --> 08:14.758 [SPEAKER_04]: is to look at organizations abroad that are left leaning, that they could say are somehow on the same wavelength as these organizations that what they're calling and teeth in the United States, so that perhaps they can invoke the foreign terrorist organization. 08:14.738 --> 08:17.060 [SPEAKER_04]: authorities that we have in the United States. 08:17.080 --> 08:21.724 [SPEAKER_04]: And that seems to be one of the themes that's riding through this. 08:21.824 --> 08:27.830 [SPEAKER_04]: And one of the groups, as the writer points out, has six people in it, one of the groups abroad in Greece. 08:28.170 --> 08:34.676 [SPEAKER_04]: So there's not really there, but it's really, it's this question of saying, we can do and say whatever we want. 08:35.076 --> 08:44.745 [SPEAKER_04]: And we're just trying to build the argument, so that it looks like we cross off, check off the boxes. 08:44.725 --> 09:13.163 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, if you remember, it was just a month or so ago, we had Congresswoman Scanlon on from Pennsylvania, who had questioned, then the Attorney General Bondi about precisely this, about the existence of a secret list of left-wing organizations that she had compiled 09:13.143 --> 09:14.605 [SPEAKER_01]: as far as we know. 09:14.646 --> 09:16.809 [SPEAKER_01]: There's been no responses. 09:17.851 --> 09:23.741 [SPEAKER_01]: Bondi, of course, did not shed any light on the existence of the secret list. 09:23.841 --> 09:26.045 [SPEAKER_01]: What's been used for? 09:26.606 --> 09:27.427 [SPEAKER_01]: Who's on it? 09:28.609 --> 09:29.550 [SPEAKER_01]: What they might do? 09:29.751 --> 09:33.497 [SPEAKER_01]: But clearly, they've got a secret list of 09:34.186 --> 09:39.773 [SPEAKER_01]: left wing groups, protesters, whatever they want to prosecute. 09:39.794 --> 09:52.250 [SPEAKER_04]: Just to underscore, this is at a time when there has been a dismantling of counterterrorism authorities and expertise throughout the government, not just the DOJ and the FBI and the intelligence agencies. 09:52.531 --> 09:58.118 [SPEAKER_04]: We've seen the national security division at DOJ decimated counterterrorism was their portfolio. 09:58.098 --> 10:01.043 [SPEAKER_04]: Yes, they focused a lot on foreign terrorist organizations. 10:01.403 --> 10:08.915 [SPEAKER_04]: But all the expertise that we have and now with threats of is there going to be some kind of Iranian attacks, scheduled for the United States. 10:09.316 --> 10:13.462 [SPEAKER_04]: Joe Kent is gone who is the counterterrorism center director. 10:14.123 --> 10:17.288 [SPEAKER_01]: What are how many people are warning his departure, but go ahead. 10:17.268 --> 10:18.470 [SPEAKER_04]: But you get what I'm saying. 10:18.490 --> 10:36.238 [SPEAKER_04]: Like the point is, is that there's this reduction in sense of looking at our authorities for counterterrorism writ large, and this focus on trying to create a sense of enemies that can be as broadly expansive, vague category, so they can go after those who disagree. 10:36.455 --> 10:53.701 [SPEAKER_03]: Meanwhile, real enemies are at work, lost amid all these other bombastic developments, is the infiltration of the FBI and DOJ criminal justice systems and surveillance systems by, I guess, Chinese. 10:54.602 --> 11:03.475 [SPEAKER_03]: At the same time, funding for the cyber security agency has been stalled. 11:03.455 --> 11:20.350 [SPEAKER_03]: And this is on top of the Doge rampage over DHS, which eliminates, I think, 40% of jobs of our cyber defense warriors. 11:20.330 --> 11:34.143 [SPEAKER_03]: You know, we've got some real security problems going on and and yet we're wasting their wasting time chasing after and team up and that is not good. 11:34.705 --> 11:36.128 [SPEAKER_03]: So anyway. 11:36.108 --> 11:40.013 [SPEAKER_03]: We have a special guest today going back to the war. 11:40.494 --> 11:47.343 [SPEAKER_03]: We have Yoshi Melbourne coming on, who's a long time, really superior national security reporter in Israel. 11:47.803 --> 11:50.186 [SPEAKER_03]: And he writes occasionally for Spice Art Corps. 11:50.527 --> 11:51.628 [SPEAKER_03]: Very happy for that. 11:52.489 --> 11:57.075 [SPEAKER_03]: He is the co-author of Spice Against Armageddon. 11:57.095 --> 11:58.597 [SPEAKER_03]: He co-ocard with Dan Revive. 11:59.018 --> 12:03.043 [SPEAKER_03]: And we're having him on today and without further ado, let's get to it. 12:10.718 --> 12:13.201 [SPEAKER_03]: Yoshi moment, welcome to Spy Talk. 12:13.281 --> 12:14.302 [SPEAKER_03]: It's great to have you. 12:14.362 --> 12:18.227 [SPEAKER_03]: We've really enjoyed your pieces over the years at Spy Talk. 12:18.247 --> 12:22.132 [SPEAKER_03]: And of course, I follow your work in the Jerusalem post in El Square. 12:22.152 --> 12:26.137 [SPEAKER_03]: I heard you on NPR last week, sounding very good. 12:26.157 --> 12:30.782 [SPEAKER_03]: I seems like, ancient times already last week. 12:30.822 --> 12:31.964 [SPEAKER_03]: So much has happened. 12:32.585 --> 12:40.354 [SPEAKER_03]: You, I just told us before we came on the air that you just experienced a missile attack. 12:40.891 --> 12:59.911 [SPEAKER_00]: I want to be more deaf because we are already used to these missile attacks since February 28th when they were opened the war by assassinating Gali Khaminai in the supreme leader. 13:00.672 --> 13:09.902 [SPEAKER_00]: So sometimes these missile attacks and alarms which are almost all over Israel, no place in Israel 13:09.882 --> 13:17.094 [SPEAKER_00]: either by attacks from his blinded north or from Iran with their ballistic long range missiles. 13:18.396 --> 13:21.081 [SPEAKER_00]: We are used to it and we rush to the shelter. 13:21.301 --> 13:29.595 [SPEAKER_00]: Some people don't have in-house shelter like I'm lucky to have it, so they have to go to a public shelter not far from their home. 13:29.575 --> 13:43.817 [SPEAKER_00]: We have a warning time between 5 to 10 minutes, which are when the missiles are being launched and detected by U.S. and Israeli satellites and other means of collecting data. 13:44.538 --> 13:45.499 [SPEAKER_00]: And we stayed there. 13:45.600 --> 13:50.487 [SPEAKER_00]: So last night, before the Jewish Passover, 13:50.467 --> 14:05.025 [SPEAKER_00]: during just before the date there at 7 p.m. the Iranians sent, I think it was intentionally on purpose they knew that people are gathering for the Seder for the Passover celebration. 14:05.405 --> 14:17.200 [SPEAKER_00]: They launched like 11 missiles within 45 minutes and we had to stay in the shelter for 45 minutes. 14:17.585 --> 14:24.996 [SPEAKER_02]: How are Israelis feeling if you can make any generalization about the war and what's going on? 14:25.550 --> 14:54.358 [SPEAKER_00]: The Israeli reaction has been repeating itself almost in every war, since I would say the 67 war or the 73 war or the 1982 war invasion of Lebanon and the missile attacks by Saddam Hussein in 1991. 14:54.693 --> 15:05.910 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, well, it's not you and it is repeating itself in the sense that the first reaction in the first days, there is a celebratory reaction, euphoric reaction in Israel. 15:05.990 --> 15:18.489 [SPEAKER_00]: These republics is usually behind the government and is approving the government decisions to launch wars or sometimes when we are attacked by the enemies. 15:18.910 --> 15:22.776 [SPEAKER_00]: But as time goes by, people are gone. 15:22.756 --> 15:41.052 [SPEAKER_00]: going to change their attitude because this daily routine is awful, the economy stopped, tourism stops, people suffered to by rushing to the shelter sometimes in the middle of the night with kids, 15:41.032 --> 15:56.496 [SPEAKER_00]: And now with the war with Iran prolongs, I think there is a feeling of fatigue and that the emissions or the goals that were ascribed to by the government by the Netanyahu, the government, have not been achieved. 15:56.516 --> 16:06.010 [SPEAKER_00]: So there is a great deal of realization and disillusionment of the promises that were made by the government. 16:06.867 --> 16:21.145 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, on that score, you recently wrote First by Talk, a really interesting piece about the fingerprinting within Israeli intelligence agencies over this war. 16:21.165 --> 16:26.732 [SPEAKER_01]: And in particular, there was the account in the New York Times, 16:26.712 --> 16:41.734 [SPEAKER_01]: last week that David Barnet, if I'm pronouncing his name correctly, the chief of Mossad, had persuaded Netanyahu and the Trump administration that 16:41.714 --> 16:52.789 [SPEAKER_01]: regime change was very possible that there could be a way to initiate the attack and and provoke and uprising among the Iranian people. 16:53.450 --> 16:56.234 [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, that has not happened. 16:56.895 --> 17:11.215 [SPEAKER_01]: Tell us a little bit about this finger pointing people blaming each other for what seems to have been a pretty big intelligence failure on the part of Israel. 17:11.195 --> 17:21.589 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, Michael, I agree with you that it was wrongly estimated by the Musad. 17:21.649 --> 17:31.362 [SPEAKER_00]: The Musad was triumphant in the last war in June 25 and got a lot of credit, including for the first time. 17:31.422 --> 17:39.092 [SPEAKER_00]: They released their footage from their action and operations in Iran. 17:39.072 --> 17:43.257 [SPEAKER_00]: which was very, very unusual and rare. 17:43.657 --> 17:55.030 [SPEAKER_00]: There is another point that has to be emphasized and this is that most of the work over years, the intelligence work over years is done by the military intelligence. 17:55.130 --> 18:03.460 [SPEAKER_00]: And especially, these really equivalent to the US NSA, a unit H200. 18:03.440 --> 18:07.745 [SPEAKER_00]: they are the major providers of intelligence and information. 18:08.106 --> 18:13.953 [SPEAKER_00]: However, the Mossad over the world grabs the headlines. 18:14.013 --> 18:23.165 [SPEAKER_00]: So there is already even from the outset, there is a sort of a feeling of envious of relationships between the military intelligence and the Mossad. 18:23.505 --> 18:31.455 [SPEAKER_00]: We do, we in the military intelligence do hard work, and the Mossad grabs the headlines and going 18:31.435 --> 18:37.444 [SPEAKER_03]: I say that people don't know anything about this really intelligence, except Mossog. 18:37.765 --> 18:42.973 [SPEAKER_03]: And you don't see movies made about military intelligence or unit eighty-two hundred. 18:43.334 --> 18:45.758 [SPEAKER_03]: It's always the besides against the credit. 18:46.298 --> 18:54.912 [SPEAKER_03]: And I understand that military intelligence and unit eighty-two hundred be a little bit irritated by that. 18:55.263 --> 18:57.388 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, absolutely, Jeff. 18:57.408 --> 19:13.204 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, the military intelligence has, is the largest organization in Israel, has most of the resources, certainly the technological tools and gadgets, AI and big data, 19:13.184 --> 19:18.412 [SPEAKER_00]: and the bugging falls and cyber warfare and so on. 19:18.752 --> 19:29.869 [SPEAKER_00]: But they work hand in hand together with the Mossad, which is responsible mostly for human intelligence, for recruiting agents, running agent, but it takes time. 19:30.269 --> 19:41.706 [SPEAKER_00]: So the Mossad was successful in helping to achieve some of the gloves in June 2025, 19:41.686 --> 19:48.236 [SPEAKER_00]: are very hard to smuggle in equipment inside the run. 19:48.596 --> 19:53.083 [SPEAKER_00]: The borders of Iran have been infiltrated to recruit agents there. 19:53.764 --> 19:56.689 [SPEAKER_00]: And to build this infrastructure takes time. 19:57.550 --> 20:00.374 [SPEAKER_00]: And that was exhausted and exposed in June. 20:00.895 --> 20:04.200 [SPEAKER_00]: And then came eight months later, kept this war. 20:04.180 --> 20:14.837 [SPEAKER_00]: And the Mossad was not prepared to build because he is not ready to build the instant tools and instant operations, it takes time for them to do it. 20:14.857 --> 20:29.800 [SPEAKER_00]: So most of the work, the workhorse was the military intelligence, this work, and certainly the Air Force, which is the executor of the operations, 20:29.780 --> 20:49.358 [SPEAKER_00]: And the Mossad role in this war was basically to try created change reaction that once the supreme leader is gone is assassinated the Mossad believed that people would gather to the streets or there would be a coup d'état within the regime. 20:49.338 --> 20:55.524 [SPEAKER_00]: some sort of top generals from the IRGC and there will be a regime change. 20:56.025 --> 20:57.066 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, he didn't happen. 20:57.766 --> 20:59.388 [SPEAKER_01]: How did they get it so wrong? 20:59.548 --> 21:00.869 [SPEAKER_01]: How did they get it so wrong? 21:00.909 --> 21:11.100 [SPEAKER_01]: They believe the Kurds were going to come in and start a invasion from the west that would spur the rebellion. 21:11.180 --> 21:18.687 [SPEAKER_00]: Tell us how they got it so wrong. 21:19.291 --> 21:25.440 [SPEAKER_00]: a lot of people around the barnaires, the chief of Mossad, the round barnaires role. 21:26.321 --> 21:33.911 [SPEAKER_00]: And to his defense he claimed that he didn't promise that he didn't promise neither Netanyahu nor the Trump administration and the Rose Garden. 21:34.392 --> 21:40.000 [SPEAKER_00]: He said that the chain reaction that maybe would trigger a regime change would take 21:40.469 --> 21:44.798 [SPEAKER_00]: took place only after the war, not during the war. 21:44.818 --> 21:45.860 [SPEAKER_00]: That's what he says. 21:45.880 --> 21:58.326 [SPEAKER_00]: And secondly, he is very disappointed that the CIA didn't fulfill its part, which was, for example, to arm the 21:58.306 --> 22:05.697 [SPEAKER_00]: in order to arrange the invasion from Iraqi Kurdistan inside Iran by Iranian Kurds. 22:06.117 --> 22:20.618 [SPEAKER_00]: So the blame is that while the military intelligence said you did nothing and you failed, the musad is saying we didn't fail completely because our role was supposed to be later, not at this stage. 22:20.682 --> 22:31.652 [SPEAKER_03]: And according to your story, the Trump White House told the Israelis before the shooting started that it was not going to back the curse. 22:32.434 --> 22:33.477 [SPEAKER_03]: Is that correct? 22:34.283 --> 22:46.742 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I heard Trump saying that the CIA is going to arm the coup, and I think at a week two or three of the war. 22:47.163 --> 22:49.046 [SPEAKER_00]: And then he said, no, we are not going. 22:49.567 --> 22:53.052 [SPEAKER_00]: I believe that what happened was first, he running 22:53.032 --> 23:05.550 [SPEAKER_00]: They didn't want to participate because they were already highly disappointed of their brothers in Syria and Iraq throughout the history. 23:06.551 --> 23:22.954 [SPEAKER_00]: They were promised to have their autonomy and they rushed to help to rush the wars in Iraq and Syria and eventually they were betrayed by the US. 23:23.862 --> 23:24.575 [SPEAKER_00]: Trump. 23:25.094 --> 23:54.072 [SPEAKER_00]: not to allow the Iranian courts be armed, because if fear that it would also create some sort of a chain reaction in Turkey itself, there is a huge Kurdish majority minority in Turkey, and as we all know Trump is tracing Erdogan as his best friend together with Nathaniel. 23:54.676 --> 23:55.016 [SPEAKER_04]: Yeah. 23:55.858 --> 24:06.211 [SPEAKER_04]: But first, I just want to talk about this disconnect between the IDF, military intelligence and the massade, because I had read in a couple of places. 24:06.251 --> 24:16.003 [SPEAKER_04]: This was actually Netanyahu made a formalized switch, sort of like, took it away from massade and said, now the IDF, you're in charge of this year, we're going to rely on it. 24:16.023 --> 24:17.065 [SPEAKER_04]: I just want to know, is that? 24:17.345 --> 24:19.047 [SPEAKER_04]: So that would be my first question. 24:19.027 --> 24:34.258 [SPEAKER_04]: And my second question is, a lot of the things I was reading some from you actually, you know, gave me the sense that there's a sense of not being willing to trust the Americans to do what they are expected to do or originally say they're going to do. 24:34.339 --> 24:38.908 [SPEAKER_04]: And so it wasn't just in whether or not they would help in 24:38.888 --> 24:56.695 [SPEAKER_04]: with arming the Kurds, the Iranian Kurds or whatever it was, but just I'm curious what the attitude towards trusting the United States to live up to whatever word, whatever decision, whatever policy agenda they say they're going to support is, and if that has changed over the course of this war. 24:57.333 --> 25:00.958 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I don't think so that it has changed. 25:01.359 --> 25:06.727 [SPEAKER_00]: Still Israel is America's best ally and vice versa. 25:07.148 --> 25:10.352 [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously the relations are not equal. 25:11.134 --> 25:16.101 [SPEAKER_00]: It's a creation relationship between a horse and his rider. 25:16.081 --> 25:19.045 [SPEAKER_00]: America has the upper end. 25:19.225 --> 25:25.954 [SPEAKER_00]: It's really always dancing to the pipes and the music of the United States. 25:26.294 --> 25:36.688 [SPEAKER_00]: When do you like to stay through the history saying enough is well as no choice but to follow accordingly? 25:37.445 --> 25:57.463 [SPEAKER_00]: the relations are, well, I think the major accusation against Netanyahu is that he was Trump's whisperer, that he convinced persuade the Trump or gave him the confidence that the Israel together with the United Kingdom can deliver. 25:58.044 --> 26:01.447 [SPEAKER_00]: And this war is proving that both sides were wrong. 26:01.667 --> 26:07.452 [SPEAKER_00]: I tend to believe that Trump doesn't know 26:07.432 --> 26:14.960 [SPEAKER_00]: Israel, on the other hand, is suddenly involving a war of attrition against the Iranians. 26:15.421 --> 26:23.510 [SPEAKER_00]: I myself, I mean, with all modest cities in day one of the war, why do we need this war for? 26:24.091 --> 26:30.938 [SPEAKER_00]: Don't we remember what the Iranians how they fought with the Iraqis for 80 years? 26:31.519 --> 26:33.321 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, therefore, 26:34.077 --> 26:57.637 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there was a need to attack Iran in this particular moment, not to mention that both Trump and Netanyahu both said eight months ago in June, 2025, that they obliterated Iran's nuclear sides and Netanyahu said that he secured the future of Israel for generations. 26:57.657 --> 27:03.342 [SPEAKER_00]: So for in the eighth generations in Netanyahu, 27:03.322 --> 27:09.049 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's not a eternity, that's not securing the existence of Israel. 27:09.450 --> 27:10.771 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the war was wrong. 27:10.811 --> 27:15.697 [SPEAKER_00]: And we say, now, and the people are fatigued and are very disappointed. 27:15.818 --> 27:17.680 [SPEAKER_00]: And I don't know, are we going to end? 27:18.080 --> 27:21.104 [SPEAKER_00]: There is a possibility people are talking about it. 27:21.144 --> 27:32.198 [SPEAKER_00]: The Trump within two, three weeks will say, we won and the war, unilaterally we will withdraw from the war, 27:32.178 --> 27:36.568 [SPEAKER_00]: with the Iranians who would not forget and they have a long memory. 27:37.510 --> 27:38.953 [SPEAKER_03]: We have to take a quick break. 27:38.993 --> 27:41.680 [SPEAKER_03]: We'll be back in just a second with Yoshi moment. 27:46.751 --> 27:48.094 [SPEAKER_03]: Okay, we're back. 27:48.226 --> 28:07.247 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, on that score, I assume like everybody like all of us, you watched President Trump speech Wednesday night in which he did indicate two to three weeks, and then we'll be out, and you know, one thing that occurred to me is the Iranians, 28:07.227 --> 28:11.272 [SPEAKER_01]: are showing no indication that they're going to stop fighting. 28:11.612 --> 28:25.789 [SPEAKER_01]: So the U.S.N.s it's participation in the war and the Iranians keep firing missiles at Israel, which almost guarantees that the Israelis will continue to be firing missiles at Iran, right? 28:26.450 --> 28:27.651 [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, absolutely right. 28:27.671 --> 28:30.214 [SPEAKER_00]: Michael, if there is no deal. 28:30.481 --> 28:38.028 [SPEAKER_00]: which would ensure that the CIS fire or whatever arrangement is being made is well would be part of it. 28:38.829 --> 28:52.621 [SPEAKER_00]: Israel would be left alone and we will continue being sheld by Iranian missiles and Israel and Israel and Israel, for example, will keep attacking Iranian installations. 28:52.641 --> 28:56.905 [SPEAKER_00]: It is very likely that it may happen if there is no deal. 28:57.525 --> 29:00.488 [SPEAKER_00]: If there is no deal that Israel would be included in it. 29:00.468 --> 29:07.320 [SPEAKER_04]: Can we talk a little bit about Lebanon, and sort of you would, I think you would written a piece about the Iron Beam. 29:07.340 --> 29:13.010 [SPEAKER_04]: And it's possibilities and it's lack of possibilities and it's problems. 29:13.491 --> 29:21.885 [SPEAKER_04]: And can you talk a little bit about what's happening with Lebanon and the sense of just how protected Israel feels in terms of drones and other weapons? 29:22.625 --> 29:47.400 [SPEAKER_00]: His ballad is the surprising actor of this war, because only a year and a half ago, with the marvelous admirable operation, the Bipper operation and the decapitation of the Secretary-General Nasrallah and the top leaders and commanders of his ballad, the feeling was that his ballad was defeated. 29:47.380 --> 29:58.976 [SPEAKER_00]: but it has taken his ballad here and half and they were regrouping and it turns out not that the heavy enough weapons to shell Israel. 29:58.996 --> 30:15.379 [SPEAKER_00]: Now they don't have the long range missiles that they used to have in the previous wars, so they rarely attack with the missile centrally Israel 30:15.359 --> 30:25.678 [SPEAKER_00]: short-range missiles and drones to attack Israeli communities, rural communities, and small towns along the border. 30:26.820 --> 30:37.519 [SPEAKER_00]: And for them, the iron them is not sufficient because the time between the launching of the rocket, 30:38.022 --> 30:48.398 [SPEAKER_00]: and the time it can be intercepted is matter of minutes, one minute, two minutes, and people don't have time to rush to the shelter. 30:48.779 --> 30:59.355 [SPEAKER_00]: So people are like sitting dark and they feel that they are completely naked on one end, and Iron Band is not enough to protect them. 30:59.335 --> 31:11.296 [SPEAKER_00]: Although Iron Man and all the other is very layers of aerial defense, the arrow, the David Slings, are very useful and effective against Iran. 31:11.677 --> 31:17.968 [SPEAKER_00]: The fact that very few Israelis have been killed so far, 31:17.948 --> 31:29.654 [SPEAKER_00]: And little and less lesser damage was caused to property that in June 25 means that these layers of defense are very effective and are working. 31:29.674 --> 31:33.983 [SPEAKER_00]: But in the northern front with Lebanon, 31:33.963 --> 31:37.409 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not sufficient, and there is a big problem. 31:37.449 --> 32:01.067 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, maybe one more sentence as Israel hope that Israel already developed an iron beam, a laser activation, but it has its limits and frankly, they didn't manage to, to down even one drone in this war against Risbala. 32:02.043 --> 32:03.845 [SPEAKER_03]: It's still not perfect. 32:04.246 --> 32:08.832 [SPEAKER_03]: I want to swing back to this piece you wrote for Spite Talk for a moment, Josie. 32:09.533 --> 32:23.590 [SPEAKER_03]: This rivalry between the idea of military intelligence Mossad and so on is scapegoating that that you wrote that a BB is doing with Mossad. 32:23.971 --> 32:29.518 [SPEAKER_03]: Is that going to have any practical effect or is that just a storm and a teacup? 32:30.393 --> 32:45.415 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, no, it's not a storm in a T-cup, a Jeff, but let me go back to what Sharon said that until 2024, since 2002, when 32:45.395 --> 32:58.574 [SPEAKER_00]: Arya Sharon was Prime Minister, he nominated, he authorized delegated authorities to layer the gun, who was then the legendary head of Musat. 32:59.075 --> 33:07.947 [SPEAKER_00]: And the gun became, if you wish, the Tsar of the campaign against Iran, he was in charge of everything. 33:08.007 --> 33:12.634 [SPEAKER_00]: The Primatic means 33:12.985 --> 33:42.165 [SPEAKER_00]: I am a fascination, sure, covered operation and fascination, but in 2024, Netanyahu realized that for an image of war, all out war, the means that they are available, the tools that are available for them, or not sufficient, and therefore, it delegated the power to run the 33:43.006 --> 33:46.830 [SPEAKER_00]: But I'm sure relations will be repaired somehow. 33:47.171 --> 33:55.740 [SPEAKER_00]: But now there is a bad blood between the two organizations, although they continue to cooperate with each other because it's a wartime. 33:55.780 --> 34:07.714 [SPEAKER_00]: So they really, they are growing up and they are serious and they know that they have to work together, hand in end, and to complete each other. 34:08.386 --> 34:27.077 [SPEAKER_04]: Of course, that can complicate things when it gets to who's communicating with the United States intelligence forces and where in the United States and so is it, is it, do you think they're getting conflicting, we, in the United States are getting conflicting signals or do you think there's some point at which it's a decision of what's going to be shared with the United States. 34:27.097 --> 34:28.960 [SPEAKER_04]: How do you think that works? 34:30.037 --> 34:39.853 [SPEAKER_00]: But they are joined war rooms meant by the various agencies of the United States. 34:40.234 --> 34:53.496 [SPEAKER_00]: When the Air Force is working together with the Israel Air Force and the core direction with excellence sometimes it's a collaboration in lead air. 34:53.476 --> 35:17.998 [SPEAKER_00]: are you around you guys so you will send a missile so that that it works perfectly well then there is a cooperation between the Mossad and the CIA and then there is a joint joint command center between the military intelligence and the various arms and branches of the US Army and and the Pentagon. 35:18.316 --> 35:34.614 [SPEAKER_00]: So, and all of these agencies are working together, hand in hand is really intelligent services on one hand that they are American intelligence services and the Air Force and the military. 35:34.634 --> 35:44.205 [SPEAKER_00]: So, that works very well, and you can see that the tactical results on the ground are great. 35:44.185 --> 35:52.278 [SPEAKER_00]: but how you translate tactical achievements and successes in the battlefield to a strategic outcome. 35:52.939 --> 35:54.742 [SPEAKER_00]: And that is the problem of this war. 35:54.782 --> 36:05.119 [SPEAKER_00]: We don't see that strategically, United States, the Israel will achieve their goals, not to mention wind the war. 36:05.139 --> 36:08.725 [SPEAKER_00]: The Iranians don't show any sign of capitulation. 36:10.004 --> 36:31.540 [SPEAKER_01]: So in the midst of this war, Israel is also facing another crisis, and that's the settler violence in the West Bank, which has really ramped up quite a bit, it's, you know, obviously costing Israel 36:31.520 --> 36:40.431 [SPEAKER_01]: which is already been on the international stage and to cast as a pariah because of Gaza, this is making things even worse. 36:40.831 --> 37:01.476 [SPEAKER_01]: Is there any give us your sense whether this government with its fanatics like Ben Gavir and Smurtech in the cabinet is at all committed to doing anything to really crack down on this settler violence against Palestinians 37:02.367 --> 37:04.330 [SPEAKER_00]: in one word, Michael, no. 37:05.132 --> 37:09.459 [SPEAKER_00]: And I don't, I don't, point, I don't blame. 37:09.519 --> 37:20.418 [SPEAKER_00]: Only then, to bank various motifs, and the Israelites and the radical settlers to what's going on and what's happening in the West Bank. 37:20.438 --> 37:25.667 [SPEAKER_00]: And basically, there are terrorizing Palestinians day and night, day and night. 37:26.288 --> 37:27.210 [SPEAKER_00]: But, 37:27.190 --> 37:48.220 [SPEAKER_00]: It is with the approval of the government, or at least turning a blind eye, Netanyahu for its political or personal interest, it needs them because without them, it doesn't have a coalition government, and we are facing elections in the matter of six months, maybe less. 37:48.200 --> 37:58.783 [SPEAKER_00]: So, and the thermal point that is lacking in the domestic security service, the head of the new chief. 37:59.067 --> 38:06.356 [SPEAKER_00]: of the chin bed, the domestic security service is a settler, although he was a general in the military. 38:06.817 --> 38:22.797 [SPEAKER_00]: So they turn the blind eye, the police is already a semi-fascist police, like maybe comparable to in America to ICE and they do whatever they want and the settlers 38:23.570 --> 38:49.155 [SPEAKER_00]: feel that they have a, you know, a tail, they have a tail with that they are supported directly indirectly by the government and it's going to be worse and worse and worse and the vision of the small twitch and banged beer, not of Nepaliao, but is allowing them to do it is basically 38:49.372 --> 39:08.279 [SPEAKER_00]: and the war crimes which are already committed, and the government is silence and the security services and the police, which is in the hands of a big, very small trade, they rarely investigate cases, they don't arrest people. 39:08.299 --> 39:11.143 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, one of the major tools that 39:11.123 --> 39:19.615 [SPEAKER_00]: that the security service, the human bed had, until recently, was administrative detention. 39:19.995 --> 39:40.624 [SPEAKER_00]: It's an old British, since the British mandate rule of Palestine and Israel tool, which I've been used if you cannot, if you know that someone is suspect, but you cannot provide with evidence to arrest him and to put him in court, it's an Israeli kind of, 39:40.604 --> 39:43.230 [SPEAKER_00]: phenomena, more or less arrest. 39:43.410 --> 39:54.175 [SPEAKER_00]: Then you arrest him for six months, he put him in a administrative detention, recently, and that was mostly used, like, as a police thing, but occasionally, he gets 39:54.678 --> 40:12.231 [SPEAKER_00]: The settlers recently, the government lifted the regulations that Jews settlers can, it's a racist notion that Jews will be put into administrative detention. 40:12.211 --> 40:25.765 [SPEAKER_00]: So even this minimal tool which was pretty effective, at least to deter the settlers of committing their crimes, has been taken away because the government doesn't want to investigate. 40:26.015 --> 40:28.018 [SPEAKER_01]: Let me ask one follow up on this. 40:28.078 --> 40:32.466 [SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned that there's likely to be elections in six months, perhaps. 40:33.327 --> 40:42.722 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, a lot of American supporters of Israel are really hoping Netanyahuq, it's defeated in these upcoming elections. 40:42.742 --> 40:47.670 [SPEAKER_01]: He's become such a controversial figure in the United States. 40:48.431 --> 40:49.373 [SPEAKER_01]: But if 40:49.353 --> 40:52.378 [SPEAKER_01]: his prime opponent Bennett were to win. 40:53.459 --> 41:03.094 [SPEAKER_01]: Would there be a change in policy towards the West Bank settler violence under a new Israeli government under Bennett? 41:03.695 --> 41:07.501 [SPEAKER_00]: It will be more subtle. 41:09.223 --> 41:14.972 [SPEAKER_00]: This 41:16.066 --> 41:19.752 [SPEAKER_00]: they grew in the same, in the same heart rate. 41:19.772 --> 41:22.397 [SPEAKER_00]: They were cultivated in the same landscape. 41:22.657 --> 41:30.030 [SPEAKER_00]: Although, I mean, they are, they believe in greater Israel, their religious, but their mouths, modes of operations are different. 41:30.090 --> 41:36.741 [SPEAKER_00]: And therefore, if Bennett is going to be the next prime minister, he will be more, 41:36.721 --> 41:38.403 [SPEAKER_00]: more articulate. 41:39.664 --> 41:44.108 [SPEAKER_00]: We will try to reign the settlers, the violent settlers. 41:44.188 --> 41:46.290 [SPEAKER_00]: It would not solve the Palestinian problem. 41:46.731 --> 41:51.575 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that there is any chance for a two-state solution, that two-state solution is gone. 41:52.196 --> 42:02.526 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, and yet, the Gaza War only ended with a deal that 42:02.506 --> 42:05.070 [SPEAKER_01]: to statehood for the Palestinians. 42:05.630 --> 42:07.573 [SPEAKER_01]: So there's a fundamental contradiction. 42:07.613 --> 42:15.725 [SPEAKER_01]: We got out of Gaza by signing on to a deal that pledges a two-state solution, but you say a two-state solution is dead. 42:16.345 --> 42:21.573 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, you see, I mean, the first goal Gaza is being partitioned. 42:21.593 --> 42:30.285 [SPEAKER_00]: Half of Gaza is controlled by Israel, 42:30.265 --> 42:40.420 [SPEAKER_00]: plan and his talks about the second stage, the third stage of the Gaza deal, I don't think it's going to happen. 42:40.881 --> 42:52.959 [SPEAKER_00]: So Gaza is being partitions, if it's in this 345 square kilometers of the enclave, the Gaza enclave 2.2 Palestinians leave. 42:52.999 --> 42:56.965 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, their area is half of it. 42:57.282 --> 43:00.126 [SPEAKER_00]: So, Gaza, the world Gaza isn't ended. 43:00.406 --> 43:04.031 [SPEAKER_03]: Does Netanyahu go to jail if he loses the election? 43:05.033 --> 43:07.456 [SPEAKER_00]: If he loses the election, he will go to jail. 43:07.636 --> 43:11.342 [SPEAKER_00]: But, many Israelis doubt whether we will have elections at all. 43:12.083 --> 43:23.058 [SPEAKER_00]: Because Netanyahu will use every being available to him, every tool available to him in order to obstruct the elections. 43:23.418 --> 43:25.281 [SPEAKER_03]: That sounds familiar to us. 43:25.733 --> 43:50.053 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, you know, yeah, we will have January 6 repeated in Israel, so I'm not sure the elections will be held, but even if that is coming, it is emerging, it will be very difficult for him to form a government, a coalition government, because of the opposition. 43:50.422 --> 44:02.456 [SPEAKER_00]: is so fragmented and so divided, and most of them, anyway, Bennett and Liberman and others are part of these really right. 44:02.857 --> 44:08.544 [SPEAKER_00]: They are not liberal, they are not progressive, but their style is different. 44:08.624 --> 44:19.737 [SPEAKER_00]: So it will be a change if I think the atmosphere will be less poisonous, because the atmosphere in Israel is very poisonous. 44:19.953 --> 44:29.069 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think you've probably succeeded into pressing most of our listeners, you have seen more than they're used to on this podcast. 44:29.449 --> 44:37.783 [SPEAKER_00]: This is the reality which I witness every day, I mean, you know, I have to be honest to myself and to the end to the fact. 44:37.803 --> 44:38.144 [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah. 44:38.945 --> 44:42.872 [SPEAKER_03]: Well, with that happy note. 44:43.325 --> 44:47.572 [SPEAKER_03]: You'll see we'll look forward to your next pieces for Spy Talk and elsewhere. 44:47.592 --> 44:51.960 [SPEAKER_03]: Thank you for dodging the missiles and coming on our show today. 44:52.761 --> 44:53.342 [SPEAKER_03]: Stay safe. 44:53.522 --> 44:54.103 [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you. 44:54.123 --> 44:54.724 [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you, Jeff. 44:54.804 --> 44:56.027 [SPEAKER_00]: Michael and Karen. 44:56.047 --> 44:56.207 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. 44:56.567 --> 44:57.329 [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you. 44:57.609 --> 44:58.110 [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you. 44:59.626 --> 45:01.408 [SPEAKER_03]: And that's it for this week's by-talk. 45:01.428 --> 45:06.573 [SPEAKER_03]: Be sure to check out our complete podcast archive on Apple or wherever you get your podcast. 45:06.593 --> 45:21.448 [SPEAKER_03]: And if you haven't already, do check out thespytalk.co news site on Substack, where we offer steady diet of scoops in the original analyses from the intersection of intelligence, foreign policy, and military operations. 45:21.488 --> 45:23.310 [SPEAKER_03]: Just Google Spy Talk. 45:23.330 --> 45:25.752 [SPEAKER_03]: You'll quickly find your way there. 45:25.732 --> 45:34.968 [SPEAKER_03]: This edition of the SpyTalk podcast was smoothly produced as always by Cani and expertly edited by Molly Hawkey for MSW Media. 45:36.090 --> 45:36.410 [SPEAKER_03]: That's it. 45:36.731 --> 45:37.292 [SPEAKER_03]: See you around. 45:37.352 --> 45:38.214 [SPEAKER_03]: I'm Jeff Stein. 45:38.234 --> 45:39.716 [SPEAKER_03]: Am I going to go to the golf? 45:39.736 --> 45:40.838 [SPEAKER_04]: I'm Karen Greenberg. 45:41.020 --> 46:06.673 [SPEAKER_05]: Thanks for listening.