[SPEAKER_03]: Hey everybody, JJ Cooper Carlos Closso, Baseball America, draft podcasts, we're back together.
[SPEAKER_03]: online after we were together in person last week, which is something we're going to talk about this week, because we had the national high school and rotational tournament last week at USA baseball's complex in carry North Carolina got to see some of the best players in the country we're going to talk about that we're going to talk about where the SEC arms have gone in the draft as compared to past years, but before we get into that Carlos, I think we have to at least mention
[SPEAKER_03]: The cool news.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're recording this on Thursday, but it's coming out on Friday.
[SPEAKER_03]: When this comes out, we will be less than 12 hours away from the arrival of Connor Griffin.
[SPEAKER_03]: pirate shortstop, and I would say probably for the draft podcast standpoint, 2024 high school pick, Connor Griffin.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know we talk about how players move more quickly and the great ones move quicker than anyone else, but I will just throw it to you.
[SPEAKER_03]: I gotta imagine that there is no way when you were getting ready for the draft day in 2024, if you said, hey,
[SPEAKER_03]: Uh, kind of griffin up by, uh, second week of the season 2026.
[SPEAKER_03]: No one, including kind of griffin, I think.
[SPEAKER_03]: What has said, yeah, that makes sense.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, every year I feel like people ask who's the most likely player in any given draft class to move quickly.
[SPEAKER_02]: And in that 2024 class, we had a whole host of college names who both have actually done it with guys like Nick Kurtz and Jack Kackley owned, but like Connor Griffin, even as the top high school player in the class, is the exact sort of profile that I would think required a lot of time to take.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think it's just a testament to the improvement he's made as a pro player, like he really did improve his swing and just proved to him a way that
[SPEAKER_02]: If everyone thought that he had the ability to approve his hit tool that quickly, he probably is the number one overall pick in that draft just given the secondary tool set in the upside he has so it's really cool that we're finally going to be able to be able to see this in the major leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: Ben and I were talking about on a previous podcast that actually broke when we're recording future projection, um, then thought that it was going to be one of the biggest prospect debuts in recent memory, like he traced it back to Paul schemes, but even said he thought it would be bigger than that one, in terms of like your excitement for a prospect debut, do you know where you're like kind of putting this one into that?
[SPEAKER_03]: Elite here's a strosiness.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is strosiness.
[SPEAKER_03]: Right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Corribal like that's the that is the number one.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know people are saying the biggest like in it.
[SPEAKER_03]: My trout was not this anticipated.
[SPEAKER_03]: My good prospect.
[SPEAKER_02]: But it's impressive that you lump him with strosper because I feel like inherently pitchers day viewing.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know you're going to see a lot.
[SPEAKER_02]: Connor Griffin might have a couple of walks.
[SPEAKER_02]: Not get a ball hit to it.
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, you'll probably have a lot hit to him.
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like with a picture you know you're going to see that player a lot in hitters, you know, maybe it'll maybe a homer, but it's not a guarantee like it's going to be fun to see him regardless that I think is something it's for because the thing I'll say about it is is that that's the thing about having a short stop who also can run like the thing about I get will move on pretty quickly.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're not going to spend a lot of time on this, but the thing that stands out about Connor Griffin is.
[SPEAKER_03]: This makes a ton of sense for the pirates.
[SPEAKER_03]: We've talked about it on multiple podcasts and stories over the past six months.
[SPEAKER_03]: The pirates didn't have another short stop option, and it didn't make sense for them to go out and try to spin money on a even stop gap short stop option with Connor Griffin basically this giant freight train rolling down the mountain.
[SPEAKER_03]: You're not gonna stop him once he gets going.
[SPEAKER_03]: So,
[SPEAKER_03]: It didn't make sense to go out there and say, hey, we're going to get this guy to be our shortstop for the first four months of the season.
[SPEAKER_03]: My chronograph is going to be here before that.
[SPEAKER_03]: So, but what that also meant is that they really need him like if he doesn't hit, if he just placed defense runs, occasionally runs into a home run.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's going to be a valuable player for them.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the thing that does stand out is, I think his defense also just keeps getting better and better.
[SPEAKER_03]: I've tried to watch, I've watched every play, I've watched every pitch and every play that he's had at AAA this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not hard, it's five games.
[SPEAKER_03]: And you are seeing like the little more subtle aspects of it, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: He's getting
[SPEAKER_03]: He's making the play where he's getting to the side of the baseball so that he's, you know, more easily able to make the throw.
[SPEAKER_03]: There was a play where he went, fielded it and started to hurry and then realized, oh wait, first that guy's not even close and then slowed it down and then just made an easy throw.
[SPEAKER_03]: The kind of things where it's like, okay, the more subtle aspects of it and I bring those up because you gotta remember at this time last, your kind of grip it was coming off a spring training where he basically played center field for the Big League club.
[SPEAKER_03]: As much as he's always been a short stop there was a little a lot of ambiguity about where he was going to fit a year ago and now there's not that but okay to go back to what you just said about the draft before we move on.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you just said.
[SPEAKER_03]: On draft day hey who's going to make the major's first Travis Pazana or Connor Griffith.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now that it said Connor Griffith.
[SPEAKER_03]: Charlie Condon or Connor Griffin.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know, so yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: Hey, can Smith or Connor Griffin, you know, Brad McGummerier, Connor Griffin James, Tim's like, that's what it just stands out is is that in a draft class where we have seen already, Chase Burns, Nick Kurtz, Jack Caglione, JJ Weatherhold, Christian Moore, like we've came Smith.
[SPEAKER_03]: We have seen a ton of college pop of the draft first rounders move quickly.
[SPEAKER_03]: but this is amazing.
[SPEAKER_03]: It really is.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's anticipated.
[SPEAKER_03]: It does make.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that this is this window where I really do believe that there are this group of pirates fans out there that just want to have something to care about to believe in.
[SPEAKER_03]: And this team now all of a sudden has a chance to do that.
[SPEAKER_03]: It'll be interesting to see.
[SPEAKER_03]: But we'll put that to the side because we're
[SPEAKER_03]: So, before we get to NHSI, the other thing that did happen this week is the draft slots, the MLB sent the draft slots, the bonus pools, all the different teams.
[SPEAKER_03]: Speaking of pirates, hey, good segue here.
[SPEAKER_03]: Did it stand out that why the pirates are in a good position?
[SPEAKER_03]: They have Paul schemes, they have Connor Griffin, but also, they're going to have a lot of money to spend coming up, aren't they?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, so the pirates have the biggest overall bonus pool in this year's draft, despite picking fifth overall, they get that because they have two extra picks, they have a supplemental pick in after the first round at 34, they have an extra pick at 51 this year in the middle of the second round because they did not sign.
[SPEAKER_02]: Central Survantes with their second run pick a year ago.
[SPEAKER_02]: So they're looking at 19 just over 19 million dollars in total bonus pool.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's the largest bonus pool ever.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to give them a lot of creativity, flexibility, flexibility to navigate the board.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean they're picking
[SPEAKER_02]: They're picking in areas where they should be getting in a lead talent in this year's class and also tapping into a lot of the depth this class is offering right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: So the Pirates have done a really nice job with these really high upside picks and recent years Connor Griffin, Seth Hernandez, has looked great so far.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll be really curious to see if they continue tapping those higher risk profiles or if there's a college player that maybe just makes sense for them, but they're going to have as much money as
[SPEAKER_02]: this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's fun.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then bonus pull is coming out.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think is always useful to see.
[SPEAKER_02]: What's going to be interesting this year is if and when Rock Chalowski sets the new bonus pull record, how much is he going to break that by because the one one slot value in recent years has outpaced draft bonus record.
[SPEAKER_02]: This year, one one slot is worth 11.35 million dollars.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you think about the bonus record, it's still the 9.25 million that both Chase Burns and Charlie Condon signed for in 24, which basically gives $2.1 million of wiggle room for a rock chalousky record setting draft bonus that is still an underslot deal.
[SPEAKER_02]: just given how we've seen these bonuses handed out in recent years.
[SPEAKER_02]: It feels unsurprising that he's going to get 11.35, but I'm really curious to see what that number is actually going to be.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, I mean, again, this is just how the human brain works.
[SPEAKER_03]: Is he going to get 10 milliliters?
[SPEAKER_03]: I would think there's a decent chance.
[SPEAKER_03]: I would say so too.
[SPEAKER_02]: I would say that like again, when you're doing negotiations, because when you look at it here, slot value at pic two is 10.5
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, and by the way, let's be clear.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like again, we're still months out from the draft, but we've said that the difference you have here is, if you have a guy who is the clear number one, where it's like, that player does have some leverage here because as you just laid out there, if he says 10 mil and the wide socks say no,
[SPEAKER_03]: There is a, I would say, a basically a near 99% confidence rate that you're going to be able to get someone behind you to give you.
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, I think the white socks were just taken.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, I think I'm going to say, okay, look, we still, we still saved the money.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to have to, no, they're like, we haven't agreed to deal.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to negotiate it down to the line.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like as, as whatever the, I, yeah, if you still in this position now, you still take him.
[SPEAKER_02]: like is rockin' or go back to UCLA, again, that feels right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Right, but what I'm saying though, is that's why I think the 10 million is absolutely going to, you know, have, right.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, so that, that will be interesting.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think some other teams here that are interesting too, and you can kind of have a sense of who the most fascinating teams are gonna be before the official numbers.
[SPEAKER_02]: are now, it's just because you can kind of run back.
[SPEAKER_02]: You can run all of the slow values from previous year with updated picks and get a sense of who's going to have a lot, who's not going to have a lot of money work with.
[SPEAKER_02]: The Cardinals and the Dodgers are two teams that I think are extremely fascinating.
[SPEAKER_02]: The Cardinals, because they have the fifth largest bonus pool at 16.6 million just over that mark.
[SPEAKER_02]: While picking 13th, they're only four teams.
[SPEAKER_02]: In front of them who have more bonus pool money to work with, so they are the classic team in the middle of the first round that just has outside spending ability.
[SPEAKER_02]: They've got a lot of picks.
[SPEAKER_02]: They've got multiple extra picks this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: So what they're able to do with that pick, if they get anyone to maybe slide down to their pick, how they utilize that draft capital will be interesting.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then the Dodgers for the exact opposite reason.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm curious, like how the Dodgers are strategically going about evaluating the classes here because they don't pick until 40, it's the second draft in a row where their pick has fallen 10 spots because they went over the second threshold of the CBA, so your first round pick if you spend too much money essentially drops 10 spots.
[SPEAKER_02]: They also sign multiple qualifying free agents and because of that, they lose multiple picks because of, again, how much money they're spending.
[SPEAKER_02]: third, fifth and sixth round pick this year because of the Edwin Diaz and Cal Tucker signings.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have good to summarize.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, two picks in the top 220.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have one pick in the first 130.
[SPEAKER_02]: Their fourth round pick is 132 and two picks in the top until 223, which is their seventh round pick.
[SPEAKER_02]: They pick first round, fourth round, seventh round and then they have their normal 7 to 10
[SPEAKER_02]: next to no money, they're total bonus pools, that's $.9 billion.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to be maybe it doesn't, maybe not doesn't.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, around 10 players, at least, who are signing for as much total bonus pools that don't just have to work with for their entire draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: So how they use that is going to be super fascinating.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's like the Astros when they were getting punished for, you know, Spidey didn't worse.
[SPEAKER_02]: The Astros unless too big.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, I guess for the fans who think the Dodgers have just way too many advantages in the current system, I guess really cherish what they're going to do in the draft this year because there's not a lot to work with.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, but I'll also say for the Dodgers, this is where you give credit to the Dodgers.
[SPEAKER_03]: They'll find somebody.
[SPEAKER_02]: You're going to, you're going to enrich the people, but I agree that they consistently are picking at the back or below the first round and their drafts have continued to be really impressive.
[SPEAKER_02]: Whoever they're picking in 40, I assume it's going to be a smart pick because they just always seem to do this.
[SPEAKER_03]: No, I was like, I do look at what they like 20 in 2024.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'll look at what I scan that draft.
[SPEAKER_03]: We'll still see guys pop out.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, that one that one they don't have anyone that jumps to mind is like, oh, yeah, if you're looking for a hundred percent hit rate in the draft, I guess, I mean, I'm saying, I'm saying if you look at the twenty twenty four draft, you say who's the hit, you're there's no, I mean, I mean, any given here you're not good.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, full draft class every year you're not going to have a hundred percent hit rate, that's just, you know, but, but it was great to actually get to we got to hang out in person because you're around here for NHSI and I would say that.
[SPEAKER_03]: There was the thing I always love on HSI, but I felt like this was pretty solid here for this.
[SPEAKER_03]: Wherever you turn, there's someone interesting to watch.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like this is a honest, good, is high school tournament.
[SPEAKER_03]: The games matter, this is not, this is something where you are playing for team pride, but at the same time, they do a good job.
[SPEAKER_03]: You'll say baseball does a good job of bringing in talented teams with top prospects for around the country.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a piece that you have with 32 prospects.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're not going to cover all of them here.
[SPEAKER_03]: But what did you come away from seeing this?
[SPEAKER_03]: talking to evaluator scouts from all officials who were at the games as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: What did you come away with in your NHSI viewing?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think I came away still feeling pretty excited about the depth of high school arms in this class and then the one question I have at this point is around the top overall prospect James Clark who is at the event because I do think there are some
[SPEAKER_02]: talent.
[SPEAKER_02]: He looked the part offensively.
[SPEAKER_02]: The swing looked good.
[SPEAKER_02]: He got, I think, a trio of hits, more walks than strikeouts didn't miss a ton.
[SPEAKER_02]: Generally put together really competitive at bass.
[SPEAKER_02]: It looked very comfortable in the batter's box.
[SPEAKER_02]: The inverse of that is defensively.
[SPEAKER_02]: he didn't look comfortable really throughout the weekend.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so James Clark entered this event with maybe some questions from the industry about whether or not he was a short stop, whether or not he's got to move to second or to center.
[SPEAKER_02]: And for me after watching him, I would be inclined to think he probably doesn't stick his short stop.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I had some conversations with with higher level
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, ultimately, we can do a lot of work to improve players defensively and pro ball, and you're looking for players who have the tools and the athleticism to stick at the position.
[SPEAKER_02]: So while it was a down week defensively for James Clark, it would not surprise me at all if there are still some teams who are going to be quite bullish on him overall as a profile, because again, he might be number two, number three, best peer hitter in the high school class, if you really like him.
[SPEAKER_02]: I talked to some people who think it could be a top 15 pic after that week.
[SPEAKER_02]: I imagine he's going to have a wide range of...
[SPEAKER_02]: sort of evaluations just given how maybe pessimistic you might be about the defense, but I come away really liking the swing with Clark.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got video up on the site where you can see it.
[SPEAKER_03]: And on the YouTube, while we're talking about it right here.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's an honor, I always forget we're leveling up our game here on the pod.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you're probably watching now as I'm speaking, but it's an honor Orthodox move, but I feel like his feel for the barrel, his approach, his bat speed, lends itself towards a pretty
[SPEAKER_02]: Exciting pure hit tool.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a plus runner.
[SPEAKER_02]: He has fine arm strength.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think if you can dream on him Improving defensively, it's a it's a really solid overall package and then there's a ton of arms that we get into as well But we're waiting for him.
[SPEAKER_03]: I didn't want to talk about Clark for a second because I also got to see and got to see some of the miscuses and all as well And to kind of go with your saying about like again This is the thing that is tricky about this especially at the high school level, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Is you are talking about not what they are right now But what they're going to be
[SPEAKER_03]: five, six, seven years from now.
[SPEAKER_03]: And as bad as Clark looked at short stuff and let's be clear, it was not a consistent, it was a consistently bad look at short stuff I would say in those games.
[SPEAKER_03]: When them all found him bad good things did not happen generally.
[SPEAKER_03]: But they were most of them, I would say that there was some rushing, there was some.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: To me, it felt like he made a few errors initially, and then it kind of all snowballed.
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like you can see some pressure that's being lost, and then he would rush throws that didn't really need to be rushed.
[SPEAKER_02]: There were some offline throws that were just kind of unforce errors, and I don't think like the natural arm strength.
[SPEAKER_02]: was an issue.
[SPEAKER_02]: It just felt like he was kind of in his head.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was like waving at a ball that went by him on one occasion that I think probably makes that play most of the time.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I don't want to get to.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I'm saying though, yeah, the point I was just going to make is as bad as it was to kind of go back to what you're saying about development.
[SPEAKER_03]: There wasn't things here where you say, oh,
[SPEAKER_03]: not playable a short stop.
[SPEAKER_03]: You're not talking about a guy who I saw the gelsino play short stop.
[SPEAKER_03]: It worked.
[SPEAKER_03]: Right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: And you're looking at him and you're saying, okay, he's got to get bigger.
[SPEAKER_03]: But there's no way that range is gonna play.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't care how good your arm is.
[SPEAKER_03]: Things like that.
[SPEAKER_03]: There was nothing about Clark that looked at, even hands and all that.
[SPEAKER_03]: There was nothing where you said, oh, this just won't work there.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's like, well, I think I would work.
[SPEAKER_02]: The hands are a question for me.
[SPEAKER_02]: I would, I do have some questions about the hands because there are even some plays that I miss and some like some picks down at second base that are maybe a difficult pick, but I feel like you see the elite.
[SPEAKER_02]: defenders are shortstop like their hands are very sure most of the time.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I do I think that is maybe my biggest question for him in terms of skills that you really kind of need to see.
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, like really impressive pure hitter, a shot for him to go inside the first round, a ton of different arms we got to see Gary Morse tied the NHSI record with 16 strikeouts with a
[SPEAKER_02]: in the class and and then it's also useful this event i feel like just talking to what's on a scouts in the industry trying to get a pulse for how people are viewing the class right now and then even if it is not a great NHS i field which i think this one was a solid field not the best we've seen but there have been far worse and it just i fields
[SPEAKER_02]: The great thing about this event is you get such a broad look at the class and we're ranking 500 players for any given draft class, so I want to see some of these like lower end players who might get to college, but still want to have updated looks at them and maybe for us it's hard to justify going to 34 high schools during this spring to see these players to see them on one field.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's really nice and also getting some looks at talented underclassmen.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I don't know how much you got to see Graham Houston at Venice, but him and then Carter had not with Aquinas or two short shots for next year's class.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm really pumped for next year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Graham Houston looked really good and I mean, I was I was predisposed.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, he is a sibling.
[SPEAKER_03]: It doesn't mean that just because Marick Houston is as good a defensive short stop as I can remember seeing.
[SPEAKER_03]: watching Graham Houston like I get the battle is better than I expected.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I feel like Graham I've talked to some Scott who think he's every bit that a fender that his brother is, which is tremendously high praise considering how much we like him defensively.
[SPEAKER_02]: I didn't get enough defensive opportunities for him this week to say if I I feel that strongly in him, but I do feel like at the same stage his game is far more
[SPEAKER_02]: well-rounded.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a switchheader.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not just a right-handed hitter.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, America thought the swing was actually far.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if I had too many expectations for his swing coming into this.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's obviously a very highly regarded prospect in our underclass list right now, but the swing was like,
[SPEAKER_02]: I loved his swing, the frame is easy to dream on, he's lean, he moves well, he runs, he throws, he pulled a horn run down to right field from the left-handed side, so I like pretty much everything we got to see from Graham Houston, so definitely a nice little preview of what we got coming for next year's class.
[SPEAKER_03]: So the other one you mentioned, Carter Hardenah had not also, I think it was a good look.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it was impressive.
[SPEAKER_03]: And it's great to be able to be as excited about next year's class already not having to just leave that in the preserve of binbadler, the underclass.
[SPEAKER_02]: Right, yeah, we got, I got to see Carter had not last summer and I felt like he was the most impressive defense of shortstop at the area code games.
[SPEAKER_02]: Of anyone not just like among underclassmen, but I don't know if you saw the diving play he made in the whole watching it on here, it's a not a good photo of that.
[SPEAKER_02]: JJ got it so.
[SPEAKER_02]: He makes this diving play back in the hole.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't remember he throws from his knees or he pops all the way up, but he throws to third base and kind of gets a back pick, makes an out out of a bad at ball that is probably a hit in another instance.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I just think he's going to be a really dynamic defensive shortstop, and then he's got some offensive traits to like contact, we'll see how big he gets, but another switch hitting slick-fielding defensive shortstop in the class, another fun on to watch.
[SPEAKER_03]: So, that's kind of a sneak peak on the high school side of things we're seeing, but we want to spend a good bit of time camping out today.
[SPEAKER_03]: On something else that you were having conversations about, while at an HSI, and you get the
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[SPEAKER_03]: So Carlos, normally in recent years,
[SPEAKER_03]: We're debating, again, it's not that it's always the number one picture in the class.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not always Paul schemes, but normally when you talk about Friday night in the SEC, you know that if you turn on your TV and you say, okay, I need to watch this and I need to watch this and I need to watch this and you are going to be watching usually three to four guys who are in that mix of being, are they either the best or they one of the best pictures in this year's
[SPEAKER_03]: If you flip on the TV right now, or if you go out to a game, there's not really that sane confidence level right now is there that you're going to be watching the best draft prospect pictures, your best college draft prospect pitching in the game.
[SPEAKER_02]: What's that?
[SPEAKER_02]: No, not at all.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I've tried to kind of pump the brakes on how we're talking about the college pictures in this class for a little bit now.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think it's mostly there's just a lack of the top end arms, you typically see in any given class.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the depth of the college arms is like two to four, maybe two to like five, six round range is actually quite good.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if you're looking right now in the first round,
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, how many arms for you, JJ, would you say, confidently right now?
[SPEAKER_02]: How many college arms you think are slam dunk to go in the first 20 picks?
[SPEAKER_02]: For me, I think it's one.
[SPEAKER_03]: And it's Jackson Flora who's not at all in the SEC the next player who I'm most confident By the way, there's a video we posted about this which is is the chance for you CSB is gonna go looks like very well Could go two for two the right picture picked back-to-back years.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, fun little draft trivia there But the second player who I feel even without him pitching right now I feel like is Cameron Flooky at Coastal Carolina
[SPEAKER_02]: he would be the second most confident and I am, and I'll say the third one, Liam Peterson, it won't be shocking to me because of the top 20.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it stuff fits inside the top 20, but I also just think there are enough questions with the strikes that for me right now to say he's a slam dunk, top 20, I don't know that I would feel that confident.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then you look around at the SEC Friday night arms.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is typically where you're seeing all of the top arms in the
[SPEAKER_02]: like it's your MO.
[SPEAKER_02]: Right now, we have only two college arms on Friday nights who are ranked in the top 30.
[SPEAKER_02]: Only one feels like a slam dunk to go in that range for me.
[SPEAKER_02]: One of those pictures, who we currently have ranked in Saturday, top 30, is Tegan Coons at Tennessee, who is just bumped into the bullpen for whatever reason despite what I think are.
[SPEAKER_02]: really good peripherals, really good stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: We only have five ranked in the top 100 and it just feels like one of the lighter years we've seen from this SEC Friday night demo in particular to the point where I had scouts saying it's one of the weakest current year draft class SEC SEC Friday night pitching groups which maybe that sounds like it's more like narrow demographic but it is a demographic teams are looking for every year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like one of the
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, explain why to people.
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, it might be useful for some more casual, like again, if you're 25 minutes into the, but draft pod in your casual draft and we love having here, I know that most of you are pretty intelligent draft on next slide, if you're listening to this part.
[SPEAKER_03]: But explain why the S like that's an actual demographic, I think there's a real reason it is.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, SEC, top, SCC ACEs is an actual draft demographic.
[SPEAKER_02]: The SEC is the best conference in college baseball, whether or not you're a fan of a team that's not in the conference and don't want to say that it is regardless of the best conference in college baseball, you're facing the best hitters in college baseball every year and if you're also seeing the best arms in that conference.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you
[SPEAKER_02]: you look at how college team lines up there weekend rotation the Friday night guys are the aces and so you're looking at the best of the best pitching against the best.
[SPEAKER_02]: So typically that's just where your best prospects are going to be and the transfer portal area you would think even more so that
[SPEAKER_02]: But teams are going to be acquiring these players from mid-majors or non-powerful conferences who have proven it, they step into the SEC.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so yeah, you typically are finding the top players from this demographic, but this year, if we go, I don't know if you want to go down every team's.
[SPEAKER_02]: Friday night arm in the SEC, but Mississippi State, Ryan McPherson, 2027 eligible.
[SPEAKER_02]: Looks like a great prospect, not factoring in for teams this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Texas, Ruger Reoha, he's been tremendous.
[SPEAKER_02]: He ranks number number 52 on our board right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: He'll be 23 on draft days, not the typical sort of young
[SPEAKER_02]: young junior pitcher who you're like, he's definitely first rounder at Georgia, Joy Volcico.
[SPEAKER_02]: Kind of similar to Liam Peterson for me.
[SPEAKER_02]: Really great high-end stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of questions about the command and pitchability start a profile.
[SPEAKER_02]: We haven't ranked number 40.
[SPEAKER_02]: Alabama Tyler Fay.
[SPEAKER_02]: We don't have him ranked currently.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been good recently.
[SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't have the typical stuff that seems you're looking for at the top of the first round.
[SPEAKER_02]: Florida Liam Peterson, number 16.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's the highest guy that we're gonna talk about.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, let's pause him for a second because you said, like, you like, he's our highest rank guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: But the reason he's not higher on our list is there is a lot of uncertainty about the control.
[SPEAKER_03]: and just the consistency of the delivery and everything, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Like it's just a, it's a high upside, but it's also something where you know that you are taking on, this is, I don't wanna say not polished, but it is something where, oh, it's not polished.
[SPEAKER_03]: On any given Friday, you could see him throw a no hitter, or you could see him pulled in the third, having walks six guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: Liam Peterson entered this season needing to improve his control.
[SPEAKER_02]: He went from 13.5% Walker in 2024 to a 10.5% Walker in 2025.
[SPEAKER_02]: We heard some encouraging things about what he was working on.
[SPEAKER_02]: The off-season to feel like he might continue making that improvement.
[SPEAKER_02]: Right now, as we're recording this podcast, he's looking at a career worse 15.2% Walker.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think Liam Peterson probably has the best peer stuff in this class.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe Hammer Jackson, Flora, he just does not control it consistently.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think for some teams, they're going to say,
[SPEAKER_02]: benefit.
[SPEAKER_02]: We can help him figure out how to put this stuff more over the plate more consistently.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are player development.
[SPEAKER_02]: weeks once we get him into our system that we're really going to be able to unlock him, and some teams might just say, hey, like at a certain point, you need to be able to throw more strikes than he's been doing.
[SPEAKER_02]: So Liam Peterson, very, very interesting prospect, kind of a scary prospect, certainly a divisive prospect, but the best of this group we're talking about right now with all those question marks.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's no chase, don't under, there's no Paul schemes in this huge class to be found.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's no Haygan Smith in this huge class to be found on the SEC at Texas A&M.
[SPEAKER_02]: We haven't ranked outside of the 100.
[SPEAKER_02]: I can tucky Jackson, Jelkin.
[SPEAKER_02]: We don't have him ranked right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: He'll be 23 and a half on draft day.
[SPEAKER_02]: Vanderbilt, Connor Fennel.
[SPEAKER_02]: We haven't ranked outside of the top 200.
[SPEAKER_02]: Doesn't sit 90 miles per hour with his fastball.
[SPEAKER_02]: Really unusual shapes in deception with him.
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, not a guy who's like a classic.
[SPEAKER_02]: You're going in the first round.
[SPEAKER_02]: at Auburn, Jake Marciano, 2027 eligible at Oklahoma, Cameron Johnson, left hander with great stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: I thought week one, maybe he's going to trend into this range.
[SPEAKER_02]: He hasn't been consistent the strikes ever.
[SPEAKER_03]: Imagine everything that's said about Liam Peterson, multiply it by 100.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and you don't have near near the breaking ball there, that Liam Peterson does.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll just keep going since I've gone through all of them.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe this is boring audio, but I just want to get through the names to like emphasize the point.
[SPEAKER_02]: LSU, case and Evans, 2027 eligible,
[SPEAKER_02]: Number 37.
[SPEAKER_02]: I actually think Gackle and I'll skip to Tennessee, T-Concunes.
[SPEAKER_02]: These are maybe your most exciting bets because I think in terms of stuff athleticism, performance, pitch mix, they could all easily fit into the first round to me.
[SPEAKER_02]: But there are also players that are still don't even know if you could say that there's slam dunk, definitely going to be there.
[SPEAKER_02]: Ole Miss, how are Elliot?
[SPEAKER_02]: 23.8 on draft day.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been eligible for a few years now.
[SPEAKER_02]: People kind of know who he is.
[SPEAKER_02]: Not a first round talent.
[SPEAKER_02]: Missouri, Javan, Pimental, 2026.
[SPEAKER_02]: We don't have him ranked in the South Carolina Josh Gunther.
[SPEAKER_02]: He has been an up-iron name.
[SPEAKER_02]: We haven't heard him moving up into the first round.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so after all those names, JJ, like maybe we get,
[SPEAKER_02]: three.
[SPEAKER_02]: I just wrote it on the first round.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just we don't have the sort of cashier I feel like you typically have in that demo.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_03]: Right now, if you said, here's my crazy question on this.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you said, I'll give you a choice that you can say, whitt is the SEC.
[SPEAKER_03]: In 2026, number of SEC pictures taking the top 30 picks in 2026 versus the number of Mississippi State pictures taken in top 30 picks in the 2027 draft.
[SPEAKER_03]: I might take Mississippi State.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: Mississippi State rotation is awesome.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're just all underclassmen basically.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this has really been hit home to as I'm working on our update for the 227 college class.
[SPEAKER_02]: That class is loaded with arm strategic.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, it's a great class for pictures and fingers crossed.
[SPEAKER_02]: They all stay healthy because you will get some attrition and maybe guys won't continue to perform.
[SPEAKER_02]: But you typically see college pitchers make strides your every year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Continue to improve, add stuff, rain in their control, take on bigger rules on a staff.
[SPEAKER_02]: and maybe even broadening it out, I don't know that it's just the SEC, but if you look in recent drafts, there are a handful of college pictures who are going inside the first 10 picks, again, we'll see what happens when Cameron Flooky comes back.
[SPEAKER_02]: But we might have one college pitcher in the first 10.
[SPEAKER_02]: In 2025, we had three.
[SPEAKER_02]: In 2024, we had three if you count Jack Kekleon.
[SPEAKER_02]: In 2023, we had three.
[SPEAKER_02]: In 2022, we had two.
[SPEAKER_02]: In 2021, we had three.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is not counting count.
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's say that was two if you, because less not count Jack.
[SPEAKER_03]: Because Jack, yeah, sure.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, what he was drafted, it was like, he's a two-way player.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's never a draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a two-way player.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's drafted as a two-way player.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he pitched every weekend.
[SPEAKER_03]: But he never threw a pro pitch.
[SPEAKER_03]: And they were all in the effort.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: even still if you don't count him we could be looking at like the lightest top-end college pitching group we've seen and some of these pictures are going to be pushed into this range because teams are just going to be hunting an arm at a certain point the elite bats are gone and again there's still a lot of season to go guys like Mason Edwards maybe continue to move up and it'll be a case where like a few months from now it's like hey how are you guys not talking about Mason Edwards is a no doubt but again
[SPEAKER_03]: That's where I want to take this now, though, is like we're focusing on the SEC here, but it really comes also back to like the ACC, like is also somewhere that we kind of say, not that the SEC level, but we have had Rhett louder and Jake look, we've had Wink they sick and Wink force doesn't sell, just spurns Rhett louder, we've had these, you know, we've had basically these front end arms.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the ACC doesn't have in this year either.
[SPEAKER_03]: And really, this really, I think it's like the normally if you are a top level, you know, decision maker for an MLB club.
[SPEAKER_03]: Your weekends during the college season involve that you are going to make a southeast wing and you're going to sit ACC and SEC teams on Friday nights because you're going to
[SPEAKER_03]: The top draft position players facing the top arms because that's the other part of this is that it does make for a little bit tougher evaluation if you're like, hey, we like Justin LeBrona lot who's the guy we want to see him face.
[SPEAKER_03]: to see him best against best.
[SPEAKER_03]: We love Von Lackey, who's going to be best on best that we're going to see that perfect matchup because I want to see him facing a guy who's very similar to the guy's he's going to face in the Major League's one day.
[SPEAKER_03]: There aren't as many of those matchups this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: And what I think is going to be really interesting too, if we don't have players emerge if guys like coons or gackle or Edwards, don't continue to move up.
[SPEAKER_02]: and maybe fill this range, we're talking about this void.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like at a certain point, you're gonna be looking at this high school pitching class in the second half of the first round, and really asking yourself, hey, is this the year where we like, actually take a shot on the high school arm here, Ryan Sloan and Seth Hernandez, looking pretty good in pro ball.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe at a certain point, you don't force the college arm that you feel like is a more typical second or third round profile, and you just,
[SPEAKER_02]: Take a chance on a high school pitcher who maybe is going to take a little bit longer.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe has more of a long ETA, but like in terms of pure stuff, how many college pitchers do you think have better stuff and upside than a guy like Gio Rojas, who's pitched really well in South Florida.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know, guys like Joseph Contrera.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you saw in the world baseball classic, he's got an assortment of really lethal pitches and it feels like all these high school pitchers these days
[SPEAKER_02]: in the first round on the high school side.
[SPEAKER_02]: There is really good depth of arms in both demographics after we get out of the first round.
[SPEAKER_02]: How teams handle this kind of top end void will be interesting.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think the most likely outcome is probably JJ that we're just looking at one of the more hit or heavy like top 10, top 20 we've seen in recent years.
[SPEAKER_03]: I agree on that.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like I think when you are at the top of the draft, what happens is teams are just going to say,
[SPEAKER_03]: But then I do think there is a human nature component like we've seen this in past years I always go back to I'm sorry it is my it is my cornerstone on this which is is you go back to I always like to point out and I want to make sure I get the right year here is it's six or five that always say this about.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's the money ball in 2006 2006 high school hitter drift.
[SPEAKER_03]: There are years that there are demographics where you're like the answer is no.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like now again, this is the most extreme example.
[SPEAKER_03]: But in 2006, if you said, I'm not gonna draft a high school hitter in this and try to draft class.
[SPEAKER_03]: You made the right decision.
[SPEAKER_03]: Tommy Fam is the only actually long-term productive bigly hitter to come out of the high school hitter class next year.
[SPEAKER_03]: But there were still high school hitters taken.
[SPEAKER_03]: And they all got kind of, I would say,
[SPEAKER_03]: artificially pushed off a little bit because as much as you may want to try to compare this player to past years, it's hard not to compare them also though just the way human nature works to other players in that class right and so.
[SPEAKER_03]: players end up looking a little better, I think, a lot of times.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're comparing them to the other players in their class and you're like, again, there's a grounding where you say, this guy's no Paul Schines, this guy's no ret loud or this guy's no, you could just go down the list.
[SPEAKER_03]: But you get to a second and third round.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I do think that players are going to end up getting moved up because you're going to say, this is the best college picture on our board.
[SPEAKER_03]: And maybe that's not as good as it's in a normal year.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I don't think that we're going to turn around and the, you know, the hundreds pick rolls around.
[SPEAKER_03]: We go, oh, there have been, you know, 10 college pictures taken this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: It just doesn't happen that way.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I do think that there's a chance that guys are going to get pushed up a little bit artificially because they will look good in comparison to their peers and people like to be in this.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is a demographic that teams want to be in.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think it's going to wind up looking a little like the 2019 draft and 2019 that draft was really critiqued for the lack of pitching.
[SPEAKER_02]: And the first 10 picks it was just Nicola Dollo, Adley Rushman, Bobby with Junior Andrew Vaughn, JJ Bladey, Rayleigh Green, CJ Abrams, Nicola Dollo, Josh Young, Shalinga Lears Hunter Bishop.
[SPEAKER_02]: If we had a top 10 that looks a lot like that
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, clear, one-one guy and Rochelowski going one serving as the Adley Ruchman replacement, you get a few high-end short stops, so guys like Bob Witt and CJ Abrams may be being, I don't think they're the same sort of talent, but guys like, great Emerson, Jacob, Blombard, easily fitting in that range, corner sort of offensive profiles.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like an entry-von is maybe your ace Reese this year, and then, like, Jackson, Florida.
[SPEAKER_02]: As the one arm, you can feel confident in that range.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I do just think teams are generally more,
[SPEAKER_02]: They're more happy to take the bats they feel comfortable with early and then say, Hey, like there's a lot we can do with pictures these days and player development.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're just going to take our shots and arms later.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a very common strategy in this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's just the most no brainer move to make.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it'll be interesting to see.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's interesting to note with that though, that I would say that at that year, like you could argue both sides at this point though, but like so that was the first rounders and that year, Armwise, Roladolo, Alex Manoa, who has had one of the weirder careers we can ever remember because it's that a good pick because he was good really soon and it was a bad pick because kind of in the wilderness now, Zack Thompson, which I think hindsight was probably a little,
[SPEAKER_02]: higher than you should go and I don't know if you're including the junior college checks and Rutledge here if you're just doing four year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I was doing four year because Jackson really just feel like it's a different category but Ryan Jensen who even at the time it's a prize pick that here.
[SPEAKER_03]: a surprise pic still in the first round twenty seven pickover all the cops and you're like this is a a reliever really in the long term Ethan small who's again like with twenty eight and then dray jaynison tj sickama Seth Johnson Ryan Garcia and Matt cannerino Ryan Nelson Brandon Williamson that's your top johns as taxes
[SPEAKER_03]: And your Tyler Baum, Alec Mars, that's the top 70 picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, some of those guys have turned out, but the point being is that, I think Ryan Jensen may have been going overboard on this, but that's the point of where I say like, I don't think that Ryan Jensen fit the profile if you said this was a 2018 class.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think Ryan Jensen goes first round, but if you're in that demographic, you can talk yourself into like, oh, this guy will make, and even at the time, it was like,
[SPEAKER_03]: discuss probably a reliever and even if as a reliever, it didn't jump out of us like, oh, he's going to be a dominating reliever in the near future.
[SPEAKER_03]: Right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: So that's a fastening like okay, but it does like the other point.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that we just talked about of 27.
[SPEAKER_03]: It does feel like this is a one year blip in some ways.
[SPEAKER_03]: Obviously there's the transfer portal list, but you look at that 27.
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, it's awesome.
[SPEAKER_03]: And all of a sudden, if you said like, oh, so is this a new trend where Oh, that the SEC just doesn't have the arms that they've had.
[SPEAKER_02]: I just young this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're just young this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're going to be updating the soon, but there are an again, I'll just that, but hey, wait for us to get us back for next year or two.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, next year again, we're going to be dropping the 2027 college up.
[SPEAKER_02]: They, it is massively pitcher heavy to the point where I'm sure at a certain stage, if you were like, we have too many arms and we're still a more bass in this class.
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, we'll flip the combo.
[SPEAKER_02]: But as of now, the strength of the next year's class definitely looks like just the power arms, like some of the better.
[SPEAKER_02]: performance and college baseball in the mountains here are underclassmen guys like backswitting you guys like Chris Lvonus guys like Thomas will inches guys like the Mississippi state rotation yeah the Mississippi.
[SPEAKER_02]: Thomas will inches right McFerson dominant Duke Stone has been really good.
[SPEAKER_03]: We have three Mississippi state pitchers.
[SPEAKER_03]: that we expect to be projected as first rounders in our next update.
[SPEAKER_02]: Mm, not, I don't think three.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe three.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm the tallest, three, two, three, two, yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, top two round, such that's actually, I'm looking at the college that, yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: These are my very good next year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes.
[SPEAKER_03]: Very good next year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, that's the great thing about it.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is we're never always looking at one.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're looking at one, we're looking at two, we're looking back, we're looking forward it's, you know, we love doing this.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is, this is, and this is one of the fun times of year because this is the time of year where
[SPEAKER_03]: You can consume as much baseball as is humanly possible, you know, a part that will give you a, you know, surgeon general's warning, you are consuming too much baseball and you're still falling behind every day because there's more going on like on a Friday night we have we're going to have Connor Griffin's debut at the major level where we're having major, you know, like.
[SPEAKER_03]: Conference, you know, getting a lot of these start on this start on Thursday this week because of Easter, but a lot of major games at the College Baseball level, a lot of major matchups with the draft, and we'll have also the miners going at full board too.
[SPEAKER_03]: So, too much to watch, too much good stuff.
[SPEAKER_03]: Anything else you wanted to cover before we wrap this up, girl.
[SPEAKER_02]: No, I think that's good.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll just say a lot of content on the side.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you guys want more NHS, I stuff that piece I have as Al also working on a draft intel piece that should be out by the time you're listening.
[SPEAKER_02]: to this podcast on Friday, on Friday, kind of a state of like where the draft is right now from a lot of conversations I've had recently.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then we got a ton of stuff really talked about the baseball watching, you know, have enough time too.
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like I don't have enough time to just read all the work that the college and the prospect team at BA is doing.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's fun to see those guys kind of ramping up into midseason form too.
[SPEAKER_02]: So tons of stuff on this side to check out and appreciate you guys listening as always.
[SPEAKER_03]: And by the way, also again, we do read the comments.
[SPEAKER_03]: So if you want to leave a comment on the YouTube channel, you know, feel free or you can email me, J.J. Cooper at baseballamerican.com, put podcast in it and we will try to answer questions at some points as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: And also, again, I go into the comments and answer those if you just got a straightforward question about something on the YouTube comments, I'll try to answer it like just directly to you on the YouTube comments as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: So, for Carliske Laws of the JJ Cooper, there's been another of the best ball-america draft podcast.
[SPEAKER_03]: We are here every Friday, all through the season, and we'll keep rolling through the off season as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: Hope you're having a great weekend, enjoy all the baseball.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a longer buddy.