[SPEAKER_15]: all right everybody welcome back to the crypto one-on-one podcast federal rate cut decision spectacular uh we haven't gotten to do one in a couple fed days because we've had a lot going on uh inside the community and traveling and in person stuff it just didn't line up but we're back for this one and as we should be joined by my friend Brian for fed chair pals last
[SPEAKER_15]: Last rate decision last press conference unless something wild happens with the Kevin Worst nomination, which seems to be originally I think there's a lot of political polarization around that it seems to be going forward a little bit more smoothly than most people thought.
[SPEAKER_15]: Obviously the current president administration has been an odds with Fetcher Powell over last year.
[SPEAKER_15]: at least so it kind of gave it maybe a little bit rocky politicization of the worst decision but I think worst is to have a good press conference of course with the support of a friend of the show Larry Fitzgerald sitting behind him in the news conference the other week.
[SPEAKER_15]: That looks like it's going to go through polymarkin odds or the betting market odds are showing that worst is going to get passed without much pushback.
[SPEAKER_15]: So this should be FET Chair Powell's last decision.
[SPEAKER_15]: Here's what we're going to do.
[SPEAKER_15]: It's two 15.
[SPEAKER_15]: We're going to give 15 minutes.
[SPEAKER_15]: We'll do like a quick little market update.
[SPEAKER_15]: Then we're going to really focus two 30, so in 13 minutes, the
[SPEAKER_15]: the press conference starts.
[SPEAKER_15]: So we're going to tune into that.
[SPEAKER_15]: We'll listen to it together.
[SPEAKER_15]: Like we've done in the past.
[SPEAKER_15]: And then on the back end of that, we'll react to it.
[SPEAKER_15]: We'll see how markets react.
[SPEAKER_15]: I think the official decision out.
[SPEAKER_15]: There is no no movement on the Fed rates, which everybody knew that was as expected.
[SPEAKER_15]: But it all comes down the press conference.
[SPEAKER_15]: And I guess Brian has a hand it off to you for your initial takes.
[SPEAKER_15]: It feels like it's a
[SPEAKER_15]: I don't know, like, what's it would be interesting to see how the market reacts because he's on his way out, right?
[SPEAKER_15]: So I don't know how much, you know, he'll start he could or would or even want to stir the pot before he leaves.
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, I think that's what you're call out.
[SPEAKER_13]: It's definitely.
[SPEAKER_13]: I see what Paul's tone is going to be like on this this press conference and.
[SPEAKER_13]: I mean, he could get kind of, you know, wild if you wanted to say some things on his way out of the door that affect the markets.
[SPEAKER_13]: I don't think he is because he seems like he's held his composure and how it's together, you know, up until this point.
[SPEAKER_13]: So I'm expecting kind of just like a nothing burger and kind of like a little farewell.
[SPEAKER_13]: And the market doesn't react, but we're tuning in for a reason because I think it happened.
[SPEAKER_13]: And we want to be their first to react to it and see how the market reacts to it.
[SPEAKER_13]: And I know we got 15 minutes to kill and a little inside joke for anybody that was here in the last show that we taped of me.
[SPEAKER_13]: Maybe TV just wants to go off camera.
[SPEAKER_13]: Let me, uh, let me just ramble for 15 minutes alone.
[SPEAKER_13]: Alone.
[SPEAKER_13]: How's the car bud?
[SPEAKER_13]: Is everything okay?
[SPEAKER_15]: Yeah, we'll survive.
[SPEAKER_15]: We'll get the wheels spinning soon enough, but that was a great comment by I got a camera Holy well That was unbelievable the fate like Brian's face, Sunkel Brian went deep.
[SPEAKER_15]: Oh, I had to leave him with the solo show for 20 minutes I was that was a daunting task, but you did well my friend
[SPEAKER_15]: you guide it everybody towards it as we continue on for the will brighter days are ahead the wheels will be moving as we pull up coin market cap down day across the board for both stocks crypto seems to be a little bit of a pullback going on.
[SPEAKER_15]: uh... i'm working on my year and thesis uh... you know i don't there's something there's something to be said here about uh... the macro environment the fed chair change uh... i'm gonna try and pull the statistics for this one friday i believe i believe i mentioned it but we'll try and pull the chart
[SPEAKER_15]: Um, it was something about the 11 out of 13, 11 out of the last 13 Fed shares.
[SPEAKER_15]: The market has quote unquote tested and put the market into a correction, uh, during an at right after the Fed share was was put into place.
[SPEAKER_15]: keeping out on that keeping on the macro.
[SPEAKER_15]: Again, I just believe what's going on in Iran as much as in the early days.
[SPEAKER_15]: We kind of just chalked it up to the fog of war and kind of knew that eventually the narrative was switched on it because the administration doesn't like the market going down.
[SPEAKER_15]: I do fear that there's so it's been too quiet over there and I feel like everybody's just gotten bored of these volleyball and ping pong headlines that we've called it recently and and I don't have any insight into the truth of the matter but if there is an oil shortage that is continued to go on for we're getting to the point where it's too long and so the supply takes time to catch up so as you go into the summer and a lot of people want to start driving they want to start voting they want to start flying
[SPEAKER_15]: If there's a fuel shortage, especially like a jet fuel shortage, that's going to start showing up in the inflation numbers.
[SPEAKER_15]: So there's a couple of things that could get a little sticky here.
[SPEAKER_15]: Anything pumping out or sticking out to you, Brian, I will say from a crypto specific perspective, Bitcoin has been very, very strong, which we like to see.
[SPEAKER_15]: And you can always go back and test the lows, but I do think that, you know, kind of Bitcoin is that famous lead on the way down, lead on the way out, so I am confident
[SPEAKER_15]: your thoughts over all pride.
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, I don't think it's surprising that the market's peeling back a little bit here.
[SPEAKER_13]: You know, you nailed it, Tvo.
[SPEAKER_13]: The market likes to test the new Fed chair.
[SPEAKER_13]: And we're going to probably see that.
[SPEAKER_13]: And I just kind of my gut, not a TA, Southening my gut is that we're going to probably chop in the 70s range for a little while.
[SPEAKER_13]: We got close to 80 grand.
[SPEAKER_13]: We had some euphoric times there just getting up to out of that lower range.
[SPEAKER_13]: And now we're
[SPEAKER_13]: Now we're kind of out of that range and we're establishing a new one.
[SPEAKER_13]: So I'm not surprised to kind of see that we're going to peel back slightly here.
[SPEAKER_13]: I mean, you're talking about jet fuel.
[SPEAKER_13]: True story.
[SPEAKER_13]: I'm booking a little trip for the family this summer.
[SPEAKER_13]: and we're family six so any dollar you can save on their own tickets huge and I kid you not you almost need a second mortgage right now to uh get on an airplane and then I was like my wife was like all of the places that go go down you know they might go down I'm like I don't think so uh if the price of oil are still you know as volatile as they are we should just buy them right now because who knows what's going to happen so like you said there there's some
[SPEAKER_13]: Hidden volatility out there that we could probably hit into their gay, probably affect the overall market so that's the stock market that's the crypto market Nothing to you know slam the alarm button for me.
[SPEAKER_13]: You know, we're the permeables here in the crypto market for good reason There's a lot of catalysts also to get us into some awesome new ranges
[SPEAKER_13]: But we've talked about.
[SPEAKER_13]: We see kind of like a slow grind up.
[SPEAKER_13]: We've said on these run-downs that we didn't think we were going to wake up one day and be at $100,000 Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_13]: So this isn't surprising to me.
[SPEAKER_15]: Yeah, we're hiring the short squeezes.
[SPEAKER_15]: We're always in for one and I think it's always for anybody that's new out there listening We got a couple awesome some people seem to be tuning in some new viewers.
[SPEAKER_15]: Maybe from YouTube.
[SPEAKER_15]: Welcome.
[SPEAKER_15]: We've got Deb.
[SPEAKER_15]: We've got Yolo.
[SPEAKER_15]: Anybody else in the chat?
[SPEAKER_15]: Let us know who's there.
[SPEAKER_15]: Let us know where you're calling in or watching in from on this international show as we reach around the globe each and every live.
[SPEAKER_15]: I think
[SPEAKER_15]: What we haven't said this in a while is just to, you know, again, we're not financial advisors.
[SPEAKER_15]: We're friends talking about crypto and the markets, but also I know you and I know me and Brendan and Bryce, we all have like long-term portfolios and long-term investing is, you know, you have two, five, maybe a 10-year time horizon for long-term and then you have short-term, you're trading momentum money makers, which Brian and Joe lead.
[SPEAKER_15]: These are trades and so a lot of times
[SPEAKER_15]: We're talking about our trades.
[SPEAKER_15]: We're especially, I think, the most recent dip.
[SPEAKER_15]: We were really, myself calling the IGV and saying, hey, these software's are a little overdone.
[SPEAKER_15]: We liked Bitcoin, where it was at.
[SPEAKER_15]: We said the pain trade was higher.
[SPEAKER_15]: We went over that.
[SPEAKER_15]: And those were great calls.
[SPEAKER_15]: And we had a lot of momentum in the trades.
[SPEAKER_15]: I just feel where we are now from my perspective is like, ah, I'm a little...
[SPEAKER_15]: I'm a little hesitant to kind of get in some trades right now again.
[SPEAKER_15]: We think Bitcoin grinds higher the rest of the year, but from a short term perspective, I can't tell you where the next 10% might be right now at these levels, and I feel that way for the market too.
[SPEAKER_15]: I like to bring market talk into this because I think crypto AI technology is all converging into one.
[SPEAKER_15]: And when I look at the
[SPEAKER_15]: technology sector I just see like yes we're grinding into these all-time highs for the S&P the NASDAQ but it's like it's so lopsided there's some of these these some of these technology stocks uh Brian are flying like the memory trade the chips traded they're up 150 to 100% on the year and that that's helping the indices go higher
[SPEAKER_15]: but it also feels like it feels like a little bit of a bluff top kind of like we had that quote unquote looking back at the bluff top at the top of the market last year for crypto.
[SPEAKER_15]: You know what does when does the music stop on this chipshade maybe it doesn't maybe it brings us the next you know to seven eight thousand on the S&P who knows but
[SPEAKER_15]: something feels it's starting to look like a hockey stick on some of these trades while the rest of the market, the softwares and the oils pulling back a little bit where the rest of the market's struggling.
[SPEAKER_15]: So I think there's there's some things to watch out here.
[SPEAKER_13]: getting a little throthy out there.
[SPEAKER_13]: That is for sure, um, what to see, it's, that's, it feels like, uh, the hockey stick, you know, you never want to buy the top of that hockey stick.
[SPEAKER_13]: You know, we've talked about the top of the chart.
[SPEAKER_13]: Uh, I hope things go higher.
[SPEAKER_13]: I hope, I hope global liquidity, you know, fires through the roof and all the markets start going higher, but they're certainly,
[SPEAKER_13]: There's certainly some metrics to keep our eyes on.
[SPEAKER_13]: And again, to just double down on what we're saying about the crypto market, I'm not trading much right now.
[SPEAKER_13]: Like weird short-term money, a moment of money-maker calls like, you know, these like ones that like, could go viral and like weeks, I'm still love that.
[SPEAKER_13]: There's still a lot of opportunity, but just from like the overall macro perspective
[SPEAKER_13]: Crypto.
[SPEAKER_13]: I'm not trading a lot.
[SPEAKER_13]: I'm not I'm not opening any longs not opening any shorts I'm just kind of like like joining this range, but hey, if I if I can't find a couple bucks That I'm looking to just kind of put away long term, which I always am.
[SPEAKER_13]: I'm not I'm not
[SPEAKER_13]: apprehensive to buy a lot of the top cryptos here either.
[SPEAKER_13]: You know, I think there's a path for them to continue to go up to the rest of the year.
[SPEAKER_13]: So, when we zoom out, we look back.
[SPEAKER_13]: This will probably feel like Bitcoin's on sale, but you're right.
[SPEAKER_13]: We don't know where that next 10, 15% move.
[SPEAKER_13]: It could go up.
[SPEAKER_13]: It could go down.
[SPEAKER_13]: And I'm not trying to fight it either.
[SPEAKER_13]: I'm not trying to figure that out.
[SPEAKER_13]: No, we're trying to chill.
[SPEAKER_13]: Have a good time.
[SPEAKER_15]: And we're trying to be honest because I think, you know, again, three weeks ago, two weeks ago, we were kind of pounding the table, the pain trades higher, the pain trades higher.
[SPEAKER_15]: So it's good for everybody who kind of comes in and listens and then doesn't come back for a couple of weeks.
[SPEAKER_15]: Like, hey, stay in tune with us, go through the motions, go through the work, have some fun along the way.
[SPEAKER_15]: Of course, by listening the crypto one-on-one podcast, but we're just trying to, you know, just trying to help the people gauge gauge.
[SPEAKER_15]: Because here's here's before we move on to the fed meeting here.
[SPEAKER_15]: Here's what actually,
[SPEAKER_15]: Well, politicization of the war and I'm not trying to play the next trade because of politics, but when I start to see headlines like this with jet fuel bidding war starting to break out as airlines confront global stress test and obviously Europe's probably facing this more than the US, but again, the travel industry, especially airplanes is a global business and the they're not.
[SPEAKER_15]: it's not like your car like oh I got to go on this drive I'm on you know my fuel tanks empty let's hit the gas station these type of companies are looking months and months and months and advance for their for their oil needs and so that's why these type of headlines that don't have politics tied to them these are little bread crumbs that are making me think like man is there something going on over there that's gonna kind of linger a little bit longer
[SPEAKER_15]: And possibly raise inflation, which again, I don't think a cuts warranted, but it's definitely going to keep the Fed in a whole pattern.
[SPEAKER_15]: As we transition to the Fed, we've got a couple minutes here.
[SPEAKER_15]: Let's go over our bets.
[SPEAKER_15]: We like to make these Fed meetings, Brian and I found we put a little action on it, nothing much.
[SPEAKER_15]: Again, this isn't financial advice.
[SPEAKER_15]: This is just fun, a little gambling.
[SPEAKER_15]: I'm gonna pull it mine on the screen for everybody.
[SPEAKER_15]: What is pal going to say?
[SPEAKER_15]: He's going on in two minutes.
[SPEAKER_15]: I have him in the mentions market.
[SPEAKER_15]: Everything that I bought folks is under 30 cents.
[SPEAKER_15]: So I'm going for trying to more than double my money.
[SPEAKER_15]: As you can see here, not a ton of dollars into this.
[SPEAKER_15]: Just sprinkle and having some fun.
[SPEAKER_15]: for the show but i said yes to balance sheet i think that was about thirty percent so like twenty five to win you know what sixty uh... dot plot was about fifteen percent so that's good that could be ten dollars to win uh... i don't know maybe like sixty another one was i ran that's that will remember what i ran was an abrion took i ran the sense thirty twenty twenty four now so leeks of leeks of leeks don't say
[SPEAKER_15]: It's all about the Q&A.
[SPEAKER_15]: This is my long shot.
[SPEAKER_15]: President, it was like nine cents.
[SPEAKER_15]: So 10 to win about 80 or 90 there, and then replace, replace, replace a replacement was about 30.
[SPEAKER_15]: Because I think, you know, hey, I wish my replacement well.
[SPEAKER_15]: I think we set up, you know, the new incoming Fed that's going to replace me.
[SPEAKER_15]: I think that's in play.
[SPEAKER_15]: Brian, you want to talk about yours, and I'll start to monitor the live video feed from the Fed.
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, for sure.
[SPEAKER_13]: Actually, it's just kind of tough while you're talking there.
[SPEAKER_13]: I had to throw one more little wager on the comment.
[SPEAKER_13]: No comment.
[SPEAKER_13]: And it's at 28 cents a yes that he says no comment and I just kind of that online.
[SPEAKER_13]: I need to relax on that I mean while you said something about it's all about the Q and A like who knows Pau's last Press conference maybe one of those reporters feels a little frisky.
[SPEAKER_13]: They want to get one in on them Ask him a question.
[SPEAKER_13]: They haven't wanted to ask him all year and he get he fires back with a no comment.
[SPEAKER_13]: I don't hate that I don't know I like that.
[SPEAKER_15]: I didn't see that on mine
[SPEAKER_13]: It's on Pauli Market, I don't know if you don't Pauli Market or Kaoshi, but I'm on the under and I'm hating this side of it right now.
[SPEAKER_13]: I'm on the under inflation, 40 times, and I feel even worse about it because during our talk,
[SPEAKER_13]: We said inflation four times because I'm programmed to count them right now.
[SPEAKER_13]: So that's probably not a good look.
[SPEAKER_13]: Few other ones here.
[SPEAKER_13]: I have I ran that he says I ran.
[SPEAKER_13]: We'll see and then there's another one.
[SPEAKER_13]: Looking for my.
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, that.
[SPEAKER_13]: Oh, and then I have a no on oil at five cents.
[SPEAKER_13]: He's definitely saying oil, but I mean, I put Yeah, the 10 bucks on it to win 140 dollars just just had to do it.
[SPEAKER_13]: Like some long shots here just to have some fun, but inflation and no comment.
[SPEAKER_15]: That's I think we can get a comment and replacement in the same one.
[SPEAKER_15]: I'm going to have no comment on my future replacement.
[SPEAKER_15]: I think that's it.
[SPEAKER_15]: That's a lot.
[SPEAKER_13]: That could be it.
[SPEAKER_13]: I like that could be it.
[SPEAKER_15]: Well, any minute he'll be coming in here for possibly what we all believe is the final time.
[SPEAKER_15]: We'll get one last look at the purple tie.
[SPEAKER_15]: We'll get one last good after noon as we dive in and hear he comes as I perfectly set it up for the last time that chair bow purple.
[SPEAKER_18]: But afternoon, my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefits benefit of the American people.
[SPEAKER_18]: The U.S. economy has been expanding at a solid pace, while job gains have remained low.
[SPEAKER_18]: The unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months.
[SPEAKER_18]: Inflation has moved up and is elevated in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.
[SPEAKER_18]: Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
[SPEAKER_18]: We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum employment and 2% inflation goals.
[SPEAKER_18]: Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.
[SPEAKER_18]: And we will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
[SPEAKER_18]: I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
[SPEAKER_18]: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, consumer spending has been resilient, and business fixed investment has continued to expand at a brisk pace, and contrast activity in the housing sector has remained weak.
[SPEAKER_18]: In the labor market, the unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in March, and has changed little in recent months.
[SPEAKER_18]: Job gains have remained low.
[SPEAKER_18]: a good part of the slowing and the pace of the job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.
[SPEAKER_18]: Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months.
[SPEAKER_18]: inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2% longer run goal.
[SPEAKER_18]: Estimate space on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending in March.
[SPEAKER_18]: Boosted by the significant rise in global oil prices that has resulted from the conflict in the Middle East.
[SPEAKER_18]: excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.2% over the 12 months ending in March.
[SPEAKER_18]: This relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the good sector.
[SPEAKER_18]: Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen this year, likely because of substantial rise in oil prices.
[SPEAKER_18]: Most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal.
[SPEAKER_18]: Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.
[SPEAKER_18]: At today's meeting, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds, right?
[SPEAKER_18]: At three and a half to three and three quarters per cent.
[SPEAKER_18]: The economic outlook remains highly uncertain, and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this uncertainty.
[SPEAKER_18]: In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation.
[SPEAKER_18]: Beyond that, the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy remain unclear, as does the future course of the conflict itself.
[SPEAKER_18]: We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
[SPEAKER_18]: We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate, based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.
[SPEAKER_18]: Military policy is not on a preset course and we will make our decisions on a meeting by meeting basis.
[SPEAKER_18]: This is my last press conference as chair and I will close with a few thoughts.
[SPEAKER_18]: First, I want to congratulate Kevin Warsh on his advancement out of the Senate.
[SPEAKER_18]: Banking committee this morning.
[SPEAKER_18]: This is an important step forward and I wish him well as that process continues.
[SPEAKER_18]: The federal reserve exists for one fundamental purpose to foster the economic conditions in which American families and businesses can thrive.
[SPEAKER_18]: Stable prices a strong job market and a financial system they can depend on.
[SPEAKER_18]: Every decision we make, whether about interest rates or regulatory and supervisory matters or other issues, is made in service of that purpose.
[SPEAKER_18]: Our decisions reflect the collective judgment of the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee, colleagues who demonstrate analytical rigor, principled judgment and a genuine commitment to the public interest.
[SPEAKER_18]: Our collaborative and deliberative process has long reflected a shared commitment to finding common ground in service to our mission.
[SPEAKER_18]: This institution is resilient, capable, and staffed by professionals of extraordinary talent and exceptional dedication.
[SPEAKER_18]: It has been a privilege to serve alongside so many great public servants at the Board of Governors and around the Federal Reserve System.
[SPEAKER_18]: The Fed's work is only as effective as the public's understanding of it and you, the press, are essential to keeping the public informed about what we do and why.
[SPEAKER_18]: The people we serve benefit from your careful reporting.
[SPEAKER_18]: I welcome the announcement last Friday by the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia that she had closed the criminal investigation.
[SPEAKER_18]: She also noted, however, that she would not hesitate to restart the investigation.
[SPEAKER_18]: Over the weekend, the Department of Justice provided assurances that they will not reopen the investigation unless there's a criminal referral from the Fed's Inspector General.
[SPEAKER_18]: and absence of your referral.
[SPEAKER_18]: If they do appeal the recent court decision, they would not seek as part of that appeal to restart the investigation or send new subpoenas.
[SPEAKER_18]: I've said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I stand by that.
[SPEAKER_18]: I'm encouraged by recent developments and I'm watching the remaining steps in this process carefully.
[SPEAKER_18]: My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely, but what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve.
[SPEAKER_18]: After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor, for a period of time, to be determined.
[SPEAKER_18]: I plan to keep a low profile as a governor.
[SPEAKER_18]: There's only ever one chair of the federal reserve board.
[SPEAKER_18]: When Kevin Worsh is confirmed in sworn in, he will be that chair.
[SPEAKER_18]: Once sworn in as board chair, his new colleagues will elect him to chair the FOMC as well.
[SPEAKER_18]: As I regularly do not stay with you, our success on the lowering our goals matters for all Americans.
[SPEAKER_18]: I'm confident that the Fed will continue to do its work with objectivity, integrity, and a deep commitment to serve the American people.
[SPEAKER_18]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I look forward to your questions.
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you, Mr.
[SPEAKER_05]: Chair.
[SPEAKER_05]: Appreciate the comrades about the press often.
[SPEAKER_05]: Doesn't come from the podium in different places.
[SPEAKER_05]: Appreciate that.
[SPEAKER_05]: Can you talk about what is gone into your decision to remain on the board?
[SPEAKER_05]: What kind of criteria are you weighing and how long might you stay?
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_18]: Sure.
[SPEAKER_18]: So my concern is really about the series of illegal attacks on the Fed, which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I want to note here, this has nothing whatever to do with verbal criticism I like that officials.
[SPEAKER_18]: I've never suggested that such verbal criticism is a problem and neither has anyone else here.
[SPEAKER_18]: But these legal actions by the administration are unprecedented and are 113-year history.
[SPEAKER_18]: and there are ongoing threats of additional such actions.
[SPEAKER_18]: So I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting it risk to think that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.
[SPEAKER_18]: It is so important for our economy, for the people that we serve, that they can depend over time on a central bank that operates that way free of political influence.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's part of the absolute foundation of this amazing economy that we have.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's just one of the many reasons why the U.S. economy is the envy of the world.
[SPEAKER_18]: That piece of institutional architecture separates successful countries from unsuccessful countries.
[SPEAKER_18]: It is extremely important not for the people who work at the Fed in a given time, but for the people that we serve.
[SPEAKER_18]: that defend remain able to conduct monetary policy in a way that doesn't get pulled into politics, trying to help or hurt any particular politician or political party.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's critical for the people that we serve.
[SPEAKER_18]: In terms of when I would leave, I would leave when I think it's appropriate to do so.
[SPEAKER_05]: Was that all your questions or was that I just have a follow up which is what would you say to the criticism that by remaining on the board you're actually taking a political act in denying President Trump the majority of the board which has president he would have the president for out.
[SPEAKER_18]: I don't see that at all and as I mentioned
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, I'm literally staying because of the actions that have been taken.
[SPEAKER_18]: I had long planned to be retiring and, you know, the things that have happened in the really in the last three months of, I think let me know choice, but to stay until I see them through at least that long.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, in addition, I don't see how this will interfere.
[SPEAKER_18]: My attention is not to interfere.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, I was a governor for a whole year.
[SPEAKER_18]: So what it is for a president, the president is at the Fed that,
[SPEAKER_18]: Governors who understand how difficult the role of chair is and as a as a soon to be former chair.
[SPEAKER_18]: I do understand how hard it is to get consensus with 19 strong minded people.
[SPEAKER_18]: You work with the chair.
[SPEAKER_18]: You you try to be heard but also collaborate with the chair and try to support the chair when you can when you can't you can't.
[SPEAKER_18]: I think that's the attitude that people generally take and that's the attitude that I'll take.
[SPEAKER_18]: Damn.
[SPEAKER_03]: I could ask about the inflation outlook.
[SPEAKER_03]: In March, you described the standard practice of looking through energy shocks as conditional on inflation expectations staying anchored.
[SPEAKER_03]: Since that meeting, there has been very little progress reopening key energy trade corridors.
[SPEAKER_03]: Can you help us understand how the inflation outlook has changed in the inter-meeting period beginning with the prospects for tariff pass for resolving on the timeline that you had outlined in March before getting to the energy shock
[SPEAKER_18]: So, you know, I would look at it this way.
[SPEAKER_18]: For a long time, we've been working on the hypothesis, really, that tariffs would lead to a one-time price increase and that that would go away over time.
[SPEAKER_18]: In other words, there would be no further change.
[SPEAKER_18]: So measured inflation would reflect that higher level going up more and more.
[SPEAKER_18]: And it's time for that to happen.
[SPEAKER_18]: We really do expect that to be happening.
[SPEAKER_18]: in the next two quarters.
[SPEAKER_18]: So we're watching very carefully to see that what we've thought all along would happen.
[SPEAKER_18]: That's the kind of critical part of the forecast.
[SPEAKER_18]: We need to really see that.
[SPEAKER_18]: With with energy, it's it's so hard to say, I mentioned, you know, in, you know, sort of the textbook.
[SPEAKER_18]: You would look through it and oil shock because they tend to be short live and they tend to revert and Monterey policy works with long and variable lags.
[SPEAKER_18]: So, you know, you wouldn't necessarily react right away I think that is all the more true given that we're several years above 2% inflation and that we're already looking through the tariff shock So I think we're gonna be very cautious about that.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's but the question about about and looking through energy really is not not in front of us right now It hasn't even peaked yet
[SPEAKER_18]: And I think we'd want to see the back side of that and progress want to hear us before we even thought about reducing rates.
[SPEAKER_03]: So if I could follow up, the statement today preserves language that has taken on some meaning as it was socialized when the committee was actively lower in rates.
[SPEAKER_03]: Why is that easing bias still
[SPEAKER_03]: Right, given how different the inflation outlook is now versus a meeting or two ago, and one more would have to happen for it to get evicted.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that was as you will recall, we had a discussion about that at the last meeting we talked about it in the press conference after the March meeting.
[SPEAKER_18]: We had the same today.
[SPEAKER_18]: We had quite a vigorous discussion about that very issue and the guidance and is still appropriate and that kind of thing.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I would say that the number of people in the committee who either could support that language change changing to a more neutral stance so that the hike is as likely as a cut.
[SPEAKER_18]: that number has increased over the intermedium period and it's easy to see why.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, it's a good question, right?
[SPEAKER_18]: You see inflation has moved up over the inter a bit.
[SPEAKER_18]: Core inflation is 3.2 now, moving albeit just a little bit in the wrong direction.
[SPEAKER_18]: And we know that there will be, you know, that there's headline inflation coming out of the golf and we don't know how much that will be.
[SPEAKER_18]: we're going to need to see so it makes all the sense in the world that people would look at that and we'd have a vigorous discussion about that.
[SPEAKER_18]: You saw the three people descended over the language.
[SPEAKER_18]: I think all of those people agreed with the with the right decision.
[SPEAKER_18]: So the majority of the committee did not want to do that and I was I didn't think we needed to do it.
[SPEAKER_18]: This meeting really was just a question of
[SPEAKER_18]: what why do we need to do that now you know we have so much to learn there's so much uncertainty about the path ahead there doesn't need to be any rush to make that decision now because you know what what happens in the next 30, 60 days even by the next meeting could really change the picture around that around that language so you know it was a it was not really interesting to ask you so much closer thing on the committee that it was in March you know that makes all the sense and the world seems to be clear
[SPEAKER_00]: sort of clergyman's financial times.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just going back to this issue with the easing bias.
[SPEAKER_00]: We've now got oil approaching $20 a bar or when it comes to the benchmark, brain crewed.
[SPEAKER_00]: If it stays around those levels six weeks from now, what would be your guest best guesses to whether the easing bias will still be in the statement?
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_18]: I wouldn't want to guess, you know, well, first of all, we're going to have new leadership and all likelihood by then, and new leadership's going to have a very important role to play in that.
[SPEAKER_18]: So, I won't be standing here as a podium to answer your question.
[SPEAKER_18]: So, I don't know, as I mentioned, that's all I can really say, as we had a great discussion about that today.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's a, you know, it's gotten to be a better question than the interim period.
[SPEAKER_18]: We had the discussion, the majority are still on the page of not feeling the need to move to that level.
[SPEAKER_18]: I get it though, you know, at a certain point you would move and that that conceivably could come as soon as the next meeting.
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you, just a follow-up.
[SPEAKER_00]: Mark, it's not going to like that folks.
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see more of the Luke warm on press conferences and on the dot plots.
[SPEAKER_00]: What would your advice to him be on these communication tools?
[SPEAKER_18]: So I'm not going to give him any advice through you today here.
[SPEAKER_18]: But I think communication is generally is I think every incoming chair takes a look at communications and it's a very healthy thing.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, communication is very complex.
[SPEAKER_18]: you can always be looking at new things and if that happens it feels like it's going to happen that's completely appropriate thing.
[SPEAKER_08]: chair, chair, pallet, yellow, and faxials.
[SPEAKER_08]: Can you tell us if you've been in touch with incoming chair and wash?
[SPEAKER_08]: Any, to what extent is this a normal transition process versus all the things swirling around something unusual and what can we expect when he takes that volume in a few weeks?
[SPEAKER_18]: I haven't seen him since seeing him at a dinner in January where I congratulated him and had a nice chat with him.
[SPEAKER_18]: Haven't seen him.
[SPEAKER_18]: I don't know what a normal process is.
[SPEAKER_18]: The last process was with Janet Yellen, with whom I had worked for six years.
[SPEAKER_18]: And so it was, you know, we were sitting down all from each other.
[SPEAKER_18]: So it was a very different thing.
[SPEAKER_18]: I think this is and will be a very normal standard kind of a transition process.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that's what I expect that I've ever reason to think it will be.
[SPEAKER_08]: Quick call up is the Supreme Court ruling on Governor Cook,
[SPEAKER_18]: I wasn't thinking of it as such, but no, not really.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, I'm thinking more of the other things I mentioned.
[SPEAKER_06]: Hi, thanks for taking our question.
[SPEAKER_06]: I wanted to ask a question about your tenure and a Chris Rougabe were associated with press.
[SPEAKER_06]: During your tenure as chair, you often spoke about how disadvantaged Americans benefited from extended periods of low unemployment.
[SPEAKER_06]: In the new framework, the Fed adopted in 2020, some economists say elevated the Fed's employment mandate.
[SPEAKER_06]: Are you worried that the pandemic inflation spike
[SPEAKER_06]: will make future Fed shares more reluctant to pursue a hot jobs market and should they be?
[SPEAKER_18]: I don't know the answer to that.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, what we so what we experience in the teams, the mid-teens was really low levels of unemployment.
[SPEAKER_18]: for a long period of time, been no reaction from inflation.
[SPEAKER_18]: And we all took very much, took notice of that.
[SPEAKER_18]: We also noticed that the biggest wage gains were going to people at the bottom end of the income spectrum.
[SPEAKER_18]: And we had many, many reports of, I mean, it felt like a fairly stable equilibrium.
[SPEAKER_18]: And a lot of benefits were flowing to people at the bottom end of the,
[SPEAKER_18]: income spectrum, including companies were, you know, setting up in, you know, people who are confined and like training them before they got out and it was a very healthy sort of set of societal dynamics.
[SPEAKER_18]: So of course, I think anybody would love to get back to that.
[SPEAKER_18]: I don't think.
[SPEAKER_18]: that anything that happened to create the global pandemic inflation was in any way related to overweighting the employment market.
[SPEAKER_18]: It was a global shock that happened essentially very, very similarly all over the world that had to do with closing reopening.
[SPEAKER_18]: stimulus and all that.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I mean, you could look at a graph of 10 bigger economies on the page and not know which was the U.S., and which was Germany, France, and things like that.
[SPEAKER_18]: So I don't think that that insight was in any way responsible for the high inflation that we experienced.
[SPEAKER_18]: So I mean, I think it's always been a balance.
[SPEAKER_18]: You've got to, you've got to be strong on both of our dual mandates and we just, for example, now we, we don't feel that the labor market is at all sorts of inflation.
[SPEAKER_18]: So we don't even be worrying about that.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's been a long time since we have had to worry about that.
[SPEAKER_18]: Well, actually during the pandemic recovery, the labor market was super overheated and tight and that's when we had to worry about it, but not now.
[SPEAKER_06]: Just on the other issue, are you, would you need more assurance from the Justice Department before stepping down?
[SPEAKER_06]: Is that what you're waiting for or what else?
[SPEAKER_18]: I'm waiting for you know for the investigation to be well and truly over with finality and transparency.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I'm waiting for that and I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so.
[SPEAKER_17]: Michael McKeeven, Bloomberg, television and radio.
[SPEAKER_17]: I'd like to ask you if you could explain a little more or characterize a little more of the discussion about the two-sided view and Interest rates because there were some members of the open market committee who've been suggesting that we may need to raise interest rates even absent the war because inflation was not coming down fast enough.
[SPEAKER_17]: Is there any sense that
[SPEAKER_17]: interest rates might have to go up or was this just a setup to sort of warn people that you're worried about the war impacts.
[SPEAKER_18]: So nobody, the three dissenters and others who could have supported that and others who were voters and non-voters who preferred it, they all supported the right decision.
[SPEAKER_18]: Right.
[SPEAKER_18]: So people are not saying we need to hike now.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's more a question of
[SPEAKER_18]: you know, don't we kind of feel that we should be neutral and markets or markets, what are markets doing?
[SPEAKER_18]: People are, you know, this is consistent with markets are doing.
[SPEAKER_18]: And again, it's a very fair question, but, you know, these changes, there is, you know, it's a form of forward guidance and you want to make, you don't want to make them, you want to make them in a way that will be sustained and continue to make sense and not something you need to take back, you know, fairly quickly.
[SPEAKER_18]: including, they didn't feel like we needed to be in a hurry on that, that markets are not confused about our reaction function.
[SPEAKER_18]: We don't have a problem to solve on that.
[SPEAKER_18]: But the other side of the argument is good argument, too.
[SPEAKER_18]: As I mentioned, it's perfectly good argument to be having, good discussion to be having.
[SPEAKER_18]: So, it came out the way it came out.
[SPEAKER_17]: Well, you've got three-to-sense in favor of two-sided warning.
[SPEAKER_17]: You've got yourself staying on the board.
[SPEAKER_17]: You've got the criticism that does come from elected officials, and you've got a lot of critics who have fault of the Fed for being too slow of 2021 with inflation.
[SPEAKER_17]: Are you worried about Fed credibility?
[SPEAKER_17]: Under all of this, is that one reason that you want to stay on?
[SPEAKER_18]: not driving my thinking now.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, planetary policy is going to get made by, you know, 19 people.
[SPEAKER_18]: There's a lot of stability there.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, if you think about it, every new Fed Chair has the same.
[SPEAKER_18]: situation, which is you've got 18 colleagues on the FOMC, 11 of them vote during any year, and you have to, your job is to create consensus.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's to talk to them, understand them, you know, be inside their thinking and be able to pull them together and get consensus and move.
[SPEAKER_18]: That's what every Fed share has to do.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I think Kevin Moore is actually quite well.
[SPEAKER_18]: He has the capabilities, skills, to be very good at that.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I would think.
[SPEAKER_18]: So I think I'm not so worried about that process.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, I think that'll work itself out.
[SPEAKER_04]: Thank you, Chair Powell, Howard Schneider with Warriors, you mentioned that staying on as a governor and you intend to keep a low profile.
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm just wondering if you could give us a little more detail on what that looks like and how you can To shake
[SPEAKER_04]: What that yeah walked down the stuff.
[SPEAKER_04]: What that looks like and particularly around the policy discussion how you're able to To have your intervention and not be a shadow chair not have a kind of an outsized influence over the process.
[SPEAKER_18]: Yeah, you know, that's just something I would never do, you know, the shadow chair thing.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, it's, you know, it's it's
[SPEAKER_18]: And I don't know what the exact specifics of it will be, but I'm going back to being a governor.
[SPEAKER_18]: I respect the role of Chair.
[SPEAKER_18]: I was a chair.
[SPEAKER_18]: I was a governor for six years, and I know what that's like.
[SPEAKER_18]: I had a pretty front row seat, particularly with Chair Yell onto whom I was close.
[SPEAKER_18]: When I was working with Chairman Bernanke for two years.
[SPEAKER_18]: But.
[SPEAKER_18]: you know, I was brand new at that time.
[SPEAKER_18]: So I got a sense of what it was.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I had real sympathy for how hard it is to get that group to consensus.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I always felt like, you know, I don't want to add to that unnecessarily.
[SPEAKER_18]: And that means try to support the chairs or the direction the chair wants to go any if you can.
[SPEAKER_18]: If you can't, you can't.
[SPEAKER_18]: But I think that's that's the way it's always worked there because the chair only has one vote plus the ability to develop consensus.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, if they're not flexible at all, then how do you ever do that?
[SPEAKER_18]: And so that's why the chair has the authority that chair has really is to develop relationships with people and work with them and then put something forward that has consensus.
[SPEAKER_18]: And, you know, I propose to be a very constructive participant in that process, really out of respect for the office of the chair.
[SPEAKER_04]: And in your view as a soon-to-be governor, how do you see the risks of oil prices bleeding into core inflation in coming weeks?
[SPEAKER_04]: Because that was, it seems like the commentary that was coming from particularly some of the reserve back in presidents, they were elevated concerns about the bleed into core.
[SPEAKER_04]: And, you know, here we are with three descents now.
[SPEAKER_04]: What do you see as the prospect of a core place?
[SPEAKER_04]: You know, they're,
[SPEAKER_18]: those prospects are real.
[SPEAKER_18]: Remember though, they're real and the real thing is we're going to have to wait and see.
[SPEAKER_18]: We're going to need to see and the good news is we think our policy stance is just maybe is in a very good place for us to wait and see.
[SPEAKER_18]: We're right kind of at the high end of neutral or perhaps mildly restrictive.
[SPEAKER_18]: The labor market shows more and more signs of stability
[SPEAKER_18]: Restriction or the high end of neutral is just the right place to be so we can wait here and see And see how things work out before we act and we'll see how much that you know how much does come through into core You see it already in air fairs of course, but you may see it in many other places
[SPEAKER_18]: you know, we just don't know yet and it's so I know because how long will the straight be closed, you can develop any number of scenarios that you want, but we really won't know until we know.
[SPEAKER_18]: So fortunately we're in a good place to wait and let things develop.
[SPEAKER_07]: Thanks Mr. Chairman.
[SPEAKER_07]: You started holding post post meeting press conferences for every meeting as opposed to the ones with just with SEPs.
[SPEAKER_07]: Can you talk about why you see that as a net positive?
[SPEAKER_18]: So we
[SPEAKER_18]: We always said when we were doing quarterly press conferences, we always said we can move it any meeting, but we only have removed it the quarterly SEP meetings.
[SPEAKER_18]: So what we had the press conference.
[SPEAKER_18]: So if you think about it during the pandemic, we were moving a lot at every meeting and sometimes between meetings and doing that with our press covers, I think, would have been quite challenging.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's become the industry norm.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's the standard, I don't know whether that has to remain that way, I don't know, I mean it's just something people have become used to and I do think it's quite helpful to, you know, to, you know, I, I try to deliver a message on behalf of the committee, rather than 18 people, 18 other people going out and delivering their message and it's, you know, it's going to be all over the place because we do thankfully have widely disperse views.
[SPEAKER_07]: The other thing I wanted to ask about was the communications review from last year.
[SPEAKER_07]: Could you describe the debate last year, what changes were considered, what you wanted, and what prevented action on those changes?
[SPEAKER_18]: So, yeah, I'm not going to go into the real small specifics.
[SPEAKER_18]: What we found very quickly was that making, making changes, making really large changes for example to the dot plot or the SEP.
[SPEAKER_18]: It didn't have, we couldn't come up with anything that had really broad support on the committee.
[SPEAKER_18]: and so we just moved on.
[SPEAKER_18]: We didn't really do as much on on that as we might have.
[SPEAKER_18]: And you know, I was never the world's biggest fan of the dot plot, but you can't be something with nothing.
[SPEAKER_18]: And you know, there's a, do we've looked at a bunch of things?
[SPEAKER_18]: And, uh,
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, it's something, like I said, I think every new chair is going to look at our suite of communications and think about what would be changes.
[SPEAKER_18]: We are the only major central bank that doesn't publish a forecast.
[SPEAKER_18]: And that's because we have a 19 person committee and you know, you try to do it.
[SPEAKER_18]: You try to do that on the at the board.
[SPEAKER_18]: That's hard to the committee.
[SPEAKER_18]: That's hard.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's hard if you do it at the staff.
[SPEAKER_18]: So it's, you know, it's been it works.
[SPEAKER_18]: I think our communications are fine.
[SPEAKER_18]: but looking at doing it in a different and better way is the most natural thing in the world.
[SPEAKER_12]: Thank you, Colby Smith at the New York Times.
[SPEAKER_12]: If I could follow up on my question about Hikes, are we right to assume that the hawkish outcome for the Fed is still one in which the committee just extends the pause and rate cuts?
[SPEAKER_12]: And to what extent is there a growing sense
[SPEAKER_12]: monetary policy really isn't just restrictive at all right now, the economy is holding up relatively well, despite this major energy shock.
[SPEAKER_12]: The unemployment rate has ticked lower inflation was moving sideways even before the war and is now moving higher.
[SPEAKER_12]: So so where is the committee at on that debate?
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, where we're at is we think our policy rate is in a good place.
[SPEAKER_18]: If we need to hike, we will certainly signal that and we will certainly do it.
[SPEAKER_18]: If we need to cut, then it's appropriate to cut, then we'll signal the opposite.
[SPEAKER_18]: I think because we feel like we're in a good place to move.
[SPEAKER_18]: in either direction.
[SPEAKER_18]: Nobody's calling for a hike right now.
[SPEAKER_18]: So it really is going to depend on how things have things evolve.
[SPEAKER_18]: And that's really where it is.
[SPEAKER_18]: As I mentioned, much closer question this cycle on changing the guidance, but ultimately we didn't.
[SPEAKER_12]: And as it relates to the war, have what point do you think the risk to growth will be larger than the risk to inflation as this conflict drags on?
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, you just have to find that out empirically, you know, with given our, um, the fact that we're
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, a big exporter of energy, and that our economy is far less energy-intensive oil-intensive than it was during the 70s, you know, the effects on the United States are really substantially less than those of Western Europe or Asia who are feeling much greater effects from these things.
[SPEAKER_18]: Our effects were feeling in, you know, in current situation, currently,
[SPEAKER_18]: If this goes on for much longer in prices go much higher, then we'll feel that much more.
[SPEAKER_18]: And of course, I'm talking about aggregate inflation numbers.
[SPEAKER_18]: We know we're very well aware that people are experiencing higher gas prices all over the country now.
[SPEAKER_18]: And that hurts.
[SPEAKER_18]: And these are those hikes make continue to happen.
[SPEAKER_18]: And other other things are going to start to reflect airline fairs I mentioned and other other products and services that are dependent upon petroleum and derivatives of petroleum and people are going to start to feel that.
[SPEAKER_16]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_16]: Thank you, Chair Powell, everyone's with Fox Business so I just asked you directly on this, the markets don't see a rate cut at all this year is what they're predicting.
[SPEAKER_16]: Do you think that we are at the neutral rate?
[SPEAKER_16]: Why are we not?
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, the neutral rate is, we cannot know it with certainty.
[SPEAKER_18]: I think pretty close to the neutral rate, yeah.
[SPEAKER_18]: I always had it, you know, between three and four percent, we're a little north, the three and a half.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that's well in the range of what I would consider a reasonable reasonable, but at the higher end of the range of what I would consider reasonable neutral rate.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, I think the labor market is still probably cooling off just a little bit.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I don't think there's a much of a case for any case really for the policy looking, you know, meaningfully restrictive, maybe mildly restrictive or neutral, I would say.
[SPEAKER_16]: And I want to follow up on some of the other versions about you feature a little bit.
[SPEAKER_16]: The first time we've seen the four descents now since October of 1992, are you handing off a divided Fed?
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, the thing to remember is we have always had vigorous debates and excellent debates.
[SPEAKER_18]: I had to say there.
[SPEAKER_18]: They've been really good.
[SPEAKER_18]: And we're in an unusually difficult situation.
[SPEAKER_18]: So we've really had four supply shocks.
[SPEAKER_18]: You can actually, you can say more than four, but at a minimum, we had the pandemic.
[SPEAKER_18]: We had the invasion of Ukraine.
[SPEAKER_18]: We had tariffs.
[SPEAKER_18]: And now we have Iran and the oil.
[SPEAKER_18]: the oil spike.
[SPEAKER_18]: So, every supply shock has the capability of driving inflation up and unemployment up and what do you do?
[SPEAKER_18]: It's central bank has a really hard time knowing what to do.
[SPEAKER_18]: So, the right thing to do is to try to balance the achievement of those two goals and that's what our framework calls for us to do.
[SPEAKER_18]: But these are really tough difficult judgments.
[SPEAKER_18]: You've got to have a forecast for each variable.
[SPEAKER_18]: You've got to think how long it's going to take to get back to target.
[SPEAKER_18]: You've got to think how restrictive or not is policy.
[SPEAKER_18]: So it's only natural that you have a range of views on the committee.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, people are going to see a different way.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's going to have different risk tolerances and that kind of thing.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, if everybody agreed, that would be.
[SPEAKER_18]: that would be surprising.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I think it's only, it's partly a function of extraordinarily challenging set of supply shocks that we've been dealing with now for five such years.
[SPEAKER_20]: Thank you so much, Chair Powell.
[SPEAKER_20]: Selena Wayne with ABC News, are you confident that Kevin Moore she will stand up to political pressure from President Trump?
[SPEAKER_18]: So he testified very strongly to that effect in his hearing and I'll take him at his word.
[SPEAKER_20]: And when it comes to gas right now, it's over $4 a gallon, inflation just hit a two year high, should Americans expect to be paying higher gas prices for the rest of this year.
[SPEAKER_20]: And then your view does that take a rate cut off of the table.
[SPEAKER_20]: And secondly, by staying on as Fed governor, what message do you think you're sending to the president?
[SPEAKER_18]: I don't know what gas prices are going to do for the rest of the year.
[SPEAKER_18]: It will depend on how long the strait remains closed and how quickly it can be reopened and that kind of thing.
[SPEAKER_18]: But remember, when gas prices go up, that's disposable income, coming out of people's pockets.
[SPEAKER_18]: So they're going to spend less on other things.
[SPEAKER_18]: So there will be a hit to GDP.
[SPEAKER_18]: So it's a question whether spending goes down to offset the inflationary effects.
[SPEAKER_18]: So the answer is, in obvious,
[SPEAKER_18]: with you, whether you shouldn't move your rate or because of that, what to see how it evolves.
[SPEAKER_20]: In the message, it's a question by staying on.
[SPEAKER_18]: I'll stand on what I said earlier.
[SPEAKER_19]: Hi, Victoria Gwea with Politico.
[SPEAKER_19]: During your tenure, Fed independence has come under pressure and a lot of different ways.
[SPEAKER_10]: By the president.
[SPEAKER_19]: And I was just wondering practically speaking, where do you see Fed independence as coming from?
[SPEAKER_19]: Is it the law?
[SPEAKER_19]: Is it political support from Congress?
[SPEAKER_19]: Is it the actions of the Fed?
[SPEAKER_19]: What what sustains Fed independence?
[SPEAKER_18]: It's to a significant extent, it is the law, and we've had to go to court to successfully so far to defend it, but that the law does create a setting in which the Fed can
[SPEAKER_18]: and is directed to make monetary policy without consideration of political factors.
[SPEAKER_18]: And so, part of it is law.
[SPEAKER_18]: But it goes beyond that, though.
[SPEAKER_18]: There's a set of customs.
[SPEAKER_18]: There's a bound relying between the Fed and the administration, between the Fed and the Treasury Department.
[SPEAKER_18]: And we need to respect those, continue to respect those boundaries about what the Federal is responsible for and what the Treasury is responsible for, and what the rest of the administrations are responsible for, so some of it is legal.
[SPEAKER_18]: In fact, it's all legal at the end of the day, but it's more than just monetary policy.
[SPEAKER_18]: We don't want to use our tools to, we haven't wanted to use our tools to achieve goals that are really clearly outside our mandate.
[SPEAKER_18]: Every administration looks at our tools and things that would be good to repurpose those to serve other purposes.
[SPEAKER_18]: But that gets a drag that's dragging us into politics and in the fiscal policy.
[SPEAKER_18]: So we've resisted that.
[SPEAKER_19]: Well, and maybe another way of asking it, too, is do you think that that independence
[SPEAKER_18]: Look, I think it's at risk.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, I think these legal assaults, if you will, as I mentioned, the institution is being battered over these things, we're having a resort to the courts to enforce our legal, it's not so much independence, it's really the ability to do monetary policy without political considerations.
[SPEAKER_18]: That's what we're talking about.
[SPEAKER_18]: we've had to do that and we've been successful so far but that's not over none of that has concluded yet and it's you know it's really important it's not about it's not about people who work at the Fed or the institutions about the benefits of a central bank that makes decisions based on analysis and are best thinking rather than you know trying to help or hurt politicians it's you know that there's there's a bright line between
[SPEAKER_18]: Central banks who do one and do the other and successful countries have uniformly, successful advanced economy countries, have a really strong set of protections around their central bank just for that reason.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that's what it's all about.
[SPEAKER_18]: I think I am confident as I said in my remarks that the federal continue to make its decision based on analysis, rigorous analysis and not on political considerations, but we've had to fight for it.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, I'd like to think that, you know, I'd like to think we can get out of that era and go back to respecting, you know, what the law says and what custom has been, which is to, you know, let the Fed do our thing, we're, you know, we're not, we're, it's an institution full of human beings who work super hard to get things right for the benefit of the public.
[SPEAKER_18]: We're all human, don't expect for perfection, but do expect us to make, you know, decisions without political
[SPEAKER_14]: catering to Sarajevo, Bloomberg News, how would you characterize what you've heard from your colleagues on your decision to stay?
[SPEAKER_14]: Do you have their support?
[SPEAKER_14]: And then have you heard concern from your colleagues about continued legal attacks from the executive branch?
[SPEAKER_14]: Is this something that others have talked to you about?
[SPEAKER_18]: I don't want to report on what my colleagues think they can speak for themselves, but there are widespread concerns that these things may continue.
[SPEAKER_18]: That's all I'll say.
[SPEAKER_18]: And that would be a problem.
[SPEAKER_14]: And then I just also wanted to ask about Governor Waller's speech on the reserve banks, what, you know, do you have any thoughts on centralizing some of those functions in the way he described and then have, you know, do you, are you concerned that.
[SPEAKER_14]: something like that could potentially be a slippery slope to, you know, to consolidate reserve bank functions even more in such a way where you, you know, the central bank ultimately loses some of that important regional information.
[SPEAKER_18]: So,
[SPEAKER_18]: we try to be good stewards of the public's money and efficient and crisp in particular as well as particularly passionate about that.
[SPEAKER_18]: Of course so are the reserved so are the presidents and that's it.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's a question of how do you manage it?
[SPEAKER_18]: We of course, and Chris said this in the speech, we won 12 strong independent central banks with their own staffs and their own monetary policy views and all that.
[SPEAKER_18]: But I'm casting out right now.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, there are things that are done in all 12, which could well be done at one much more fish and all that with cost savings.
[SPEAKER_18]: We're going on that, but everybody's on the same page.
[SPEAKER_18]: The other thing you touched on was the idea of removing reserve bank presidents from office over different views on monetary policy.
[SPEAKER_18]: And I would, I would just agree with them so strongly that that would be the beginning of the end of the feds ability to
[SPEAKER_18]: to make mockery policy independently.
[SPEAKER_18]: If every administration could come in and do that, you're just another cabinet agency at that point.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that's not something that I would support Chris said the same thing.
[UNKNOWN]: Christine.
[SPEAKER_11]: I want to ask about legacy.
[SPEAKER_11]: When the history books are written, how do you think your stewardship at the Fed will be remembered for the past eight years?
[SPEAKER_18]: Wrong.
[SPEAKER_18]: Now, I can just say that that's for someone else to say.
[SPEAKER_18]: I'll give you a moment on that.
[SPEAKER_11]: All right, I'm going to ask you about it.
[SPEAKER_11]: Just a note call.
[SPEAKER_18]: Just a note call.
[SPEAKER_15]: Just a note call.
[SPEAKER_18]: Just a note call.
[SPEAKER_18]: back down to 2% and sustainably.
[SPEAKER_18]: That's our goal and we will stick at it until that happens.
[SPEAKER_18]: We keep getting these events keep happening, which keep driving up costs.
[SPEAKER_18]: And you know,
[SPEAKER_18]: The best thing we can do is to use our tools to guide inflation back down to 2%.
[SPEAKER_18]: I think trying to get there really quickly could be a costly in terms of of job loss and things like that, but we try to get there over time and in a way that does the least damage possible and our commitment to that is never ending and unshakable.
[SPEAKER_11]: How do you describe the economy outside of the misbehaving inflation?
[SPEAKER_11]: I mean, it's still awfully resilient given all of the blows.
[SPEAKER_18]: The solution can be awfully resilient, so it's actually quite resilient, I would say, because it's a positive thing if I can, if I can have that amendment.
[SPEAKER_18]: Yeah, the growth is really solid across our economy.
[SPEAKER_18]: Some of that is that consumer spending is hanging in pretty well.
[SPEAKER_18]: The most recent data are good.
[SPEAKER_18]: And some of it is just the apparently insatiable demand for data centers all over the United States.
[SPEAKER_18]: So you've got an economy that's growing at 2% or better, PDFP, which is private domestic final purchases that, which is really a better signal of a momentum and it comes actually higher than that.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that's, you know, that's a positive thing.
[SPEAKER_18]: If you look at the unemployment rates, 4.3%.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that's a low rate.
[SPEAKER_18]: That's pretty close to mainstream estimates of the natural rate.
[SPEAKER_18]: We've been there for a long time.
[SPEAKER_18]: So it doesn't feel like a good labor market to some who don't have jobs, because quits are really low, hires are really low, and there's effectively no new net job creation.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that's, you know, in a sense, the labor market is in balance, but it's an unusual and uncomfortable kind of a balance where people who don't have jobs, so we'll have a hard time breaking in unless somebody quits their job.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that's pretty good.
[SPEAKER_18]: And it's partly tariffs, which we think we think that that inflation should subside over the course of this year because it's kind of a one-time increase it shouldn't be repeated.
[SPEAKER_18]: And that should start happening pretty soon.
[SPEAKER_18]: The energy inflation that we're getting should go through fairly quickly.
[SPEAKER_18]: And we'll just have to see how that works out in the meantime.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, we think our policy stance is in a good place for us to hold and and wait developments.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, Chair Powell, Jennifer Shonberger with the out Finance.
[SPEAKER_01]: At the risk of beating the dead horse here, clearly three members objected to keeping that easing bias in the statement.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you said that the majority still didn't need, still didn't need to move to new language at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: So does the majority of the committee still have a bias towards cuts?
[SPEAKER_01]: at this point, or has the bias on the committee shifted away from cuts towards holding or hikes if that was needed?
[SPEAKER_18]: I think that, you know, the center is moving.
[SPEAKER_18]: toward a more neutral place.
[SPEAKER_18]: And that's sort of what markets are saying too.
[SPEAKER_18]: I just think, you know, there's a lot of signaling going on when you change guidance like that.
[SPEAKER_18]: And so we just, I guess the majority of us didn't feel like we needed to send a signal on that right now.
[SPEAKER_18]: And but maybe it'll come to that.
[SPEAKER_18]: And the reason is because, you know, we're kind of waiting to see what happens with events in the Middle East
[SPEAKER_18]: the US economy.
[SPEAKER_18]: So it was just that there's a group who feels like we don't need to be in a hurry to do that.
[SPEAKER_18]: We get it and of course we will move to a hiking bias if we want to hike and move to a neutral bias before that.
[SPEAKER_18]: But that was a difference over whether to do it at this meeting at a meeting in which all but one of us agreed that the rate decision was correct which was not to move.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you just said, David, to go that you believe fit independence is at risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it safe to say that you want to stay on as a governor to serve as a check in balance on that?
[SPEAKER_18]: I want to stay until I, I will stay until it's, I feel it's appropriate for me to leave.
[SPEAKER_18]: And, and yes, that is, that is really what is driving this.
[SPEAKER_18]: I'm not, uh,
[SPEAKER_18]: I'm not looking to be a high profile dissident or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_18]: I'm more looking at the other aspects of this and wanting to see that things have calmed down and we're returning to a traditional model of working with the people that you have and bring them into consensus and respecting that consensus, that's what I'm hoping to see.
[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks, Chair Powell, Mediagan, CNN.
[SPEAKER_09]: You've made many tough decisions in your time at the Fed, and as your time as chair comes to a close and you think about your tenure and perhaps your legacy, are there any decisions that stand out as ones that you're particularly proud of?
[SPEAKER_09]: And, or are there any that with the benefit of hindsight, you would take a mulligan on?
[SPEAKER_18]: Yeah, it's hard.
[SPEAKER_18]: I wouldn't want to signal single out individual things at this point.
[SPEAKER_18]: You know, I'll just say, you know,
[SPEAKER_18]: We all of us together have consistently tried to do what we think is best for the American people based on our tools and our objectives that Congress has given us.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's been very challenging because we've been in a situation of supply shock, be a supply shock, really for six years.
[SPEAKER_18]: And that's just a very different situation than for very long time what the Fed and other central banks were doing all the time was demand management.
[SPEAKER_18]: And you know, and there was always the inflation mandate, but inflation was low for 25 years.
[SPEAKER_18]: So this is a very different world and a much more challenging one where you have to balance the two objectives.
[SPEAKER_18]: And by the way, central banks that have an inflation mandate have to do exactly the same thing because they're balancing economic activity.
[SPEAKER_18]: So that's been challenging.
[SPEAKER_18]: And we've, you know, we've tried to do our very best through
[SPEAKER_18]: these really challenging times and I'm really proud of the work that I've done that my colleagues and I have done during these these years.
[SPEAKER_09]: To fall upon some of the discussion around Fed independence, can you explain to the public
[SPEAKER_09]: why this notion of Fed independence, which might sound kind of wonky to some is so critical.
[SPEAKER_09]: I mean, what are the consequences if either the Supreme Court rules against Lisa Cook or the Fed in the future decides to make decisions more around the political calendar instead of the economic data?
[SPEAKER_18]: So every major advanced economy in the world has made the same decision the United States has made.
[SPEAKER_18]: and that is that they want to take the making of monetary policy, the setting of interest rates to support the economy to achieve maximum employment and price stability.
[SPEAKER_18]: You want to take that out of the direct control of elected politicians and the reason is elected politicians are always running for election and they'll always want low rates and that will
[SPEAKER_18]: lead to inflation over time, so after, you know, literally centuries of experience with that, the whole world moved to the different model.
[SPEAKER_18]: And it's, it's worked great.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, this is, this is the era in which inflation was under control for 40 years.
[SPEAKER_18]: Then we had the pandemic inflation everywhere in the world.
[SPEAKER_18]: And now we have inflation that had gone pretty much all the way back to target, really close to all the way back to target.
[SPEAKER_18]: And now is being buffeted by the
[SPEAKER_18]: So, but what I would say to the general public is that's the back story, is that don't think of an institution being independent.
[SPEAKER_18]: Think of it this way that you want people to make monetary policy and set interest rates to benefit the general public.
[SPEAKER_18]: And it tried to achieve economic goals, which are maximum employment and price stability and focus only on that and ignore.
[SPEAKER_18]: political considerations completely ignore them.
[SPEAKER_18]: This isn't bipartisan, this is non-partisan.
[SPEAKER_18]: So we want to just work directly for the American people doing these things.
[SPEAKER_18]: We don't think, oh, I want to do this because the president says it's a good idea, or because there's an election coming up, and I want to speed up or slow down the economy.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, think about that, if that's what we were doing.
[SPEAKER_18]: we'd have no credibility, markets would lose faith in us, and our ability to control inflation and have any respect would be gone.
[SPEAKER_18]: Let me say, whatever people say, the markets believe and that we will produce two percent inflation.
[SPEAKER_18]: If you look at longer run expectations, the market's belief that there's no sense in which our credibility in the markets has weakened.
[SPEAKER_18]: It's just not the case, it's people do get it.
[SPEAKER_18]: This is our commitment and that we will achieve it.
[SPEAKER_18]: And it's priced in.
[SPEAKER_18]: If you disagree with that, then you can go ahead and bet against the markets, but the markets are pricing in fed credibility.
[SPEAKER_12]: Okay, we'll let it richer for the last one.
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you, Chair Powell.
[SPEAKER_02]: Richard Escobio with CBS News.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've talked a lot about gasoline prices and even he mentioned airline ticket prices, both of which are up dramatically because of the war in Iran.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I wonder, are you seeing that way down consumer spending and other parts of the economy?
[SPEAKER_02]: And if so, how worried are you that that will be a drag on growth?
[SPEAKER_18]: You don't see it in spending yet.
[SPEAKER_18]: You really don't.
[SPEAKER_18]: I mean, as one of your colleagues said, the economy has been resilient.
[SPEAKER_18]: It really has.
[SPEAKER_18]: Not just this time, but it's been remarkably resilient for some years now.
[SPEAKER_18]: The US economy is just powered through shock after shock.
[SPEAKER_18]: And consumers are still spending.
[SPEAKER_18]: And that's what the banks will tell you.
[SPEAKER_18]: Credit card companies will tell you the retail sales numbers that we got most recently.
[SPEAKER_18]: People are still spending, and how long can that go on in a world where, if gas prices were to go up a bunch more, that's taking otherwise spendable money out of people's pockets.
[SPEAKER_18]: But right now, we don't actually see much slow down in certainly none from this.
[SPEAKER_18]: But you think logically you will, because people have a certain amount of money to spend at their spending 25% more in gas or something like that, then that's going to come out of other spending.
[SPEAKER_18]: So again, we don't see it yet.
[SPEAKER_02]: One last thing, you mentioned those economies in Southeast Asia that are particularly dependent on petroleum.
[SPEAKER_02]: They make a lot of the stuff that American consumers buy.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, was there any discussion today about whether or not those costs getting passed along to consumers is a real concern, and whether or not that might push up inflation?
[SPEAKER_18]: So, all of those things are in the...
[SPEAKER_18]: models that that we use to calculate inflation.
[SPEAKER_18]: So we, you know, they're, they're just parts, if you can ask about anything like that and they are, they have a place where the staff has a place where they're looking at that and pricing in what will happen with higher prices and that kind of thing.
[SPEAKER_18]: So it's there.
[SPEAKER_18]: The effects are not that big yet, you know, we're a huge economy.
[SPEAKER_18]: The import sector is only 10%.
[SPEAKER_18]: of the economy.
[SPEAKER_18]: So we're not like a European country.
[SPEAKER_18]: We're 50% of the external of the GPs in the external sector.
[SPEAKER_18]: We're also, you know, as I mentioned, we're an oil exporter.
[SPEAKER_18]: So we're not feeling the same kind of pain.
[SPEAKER_18]: And we're not likely to feel the same kind of pain that economies in Western Europe and certainly in Asia are feeling.
[SPEAKER_18]: Anyway, thank you very much, everyone.
[UNKNOWN]: Thank you very much.
[SPEAKER_15]: And that's how it wraps.
[SPEAKER_15]: Good bye, Fetcher.
[SPEAKER_15]: Petalier heard it straight from him.
[SPEAKER_15]: Sorry for the music there, you heard it straight from him.
[SPEAKER_15]: You will not see him next time.
[SPEAKER_15]: A man that himself is very confident that it will be his last time at the podium.
[SPEAKER_15]: But I thought it was very interesting.
[SPEAKER_15]: And you could have got some action on this.
[SPEAKER_15]: We didn't get it.
[SPEAKER_15]: One of the few things we didn't get Brian.
[SPEAKER_15]: Absolute winners across the board is that he was going to announce that he's staying on.
[SPEAKER_15]: That was, that wasn't.
[SPEAKER_13]: That was an option.
[SPEAKER_15]: I saw it earlier.
[SPEAKER_15]: I saw it.
[SPEAKER_15]: Maybe it wasn't in the press conference.
[SPEAKER_15]: It was a separate contract is what I saw of Will he stay on.
[SPEAKER_15]: So I guess it probably had a little bit more of a longer date.
[SPEAKER_15]: It wasn't going to end today.
[SPEAKER_15]: It was a general Will he stay on.
[SPEAKER_15]: It was going like 60, 40, 60 that he would actually leave.
[SPEAKER_15]: So congratulations to all those better congratulations to anybody who tailed.
[SPEAKER_15]: Brian, how did the inflation count go?
[SPEAKER_15]: W?
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, it looks like it's a W, you know, it's under review, but 99% chance he was under and I hit him all except for no comment and he had an opportunity, he had a juicy opportunity told the reporter that he'll give her a mall again.
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, and that was perfect for a no comment, but he was feeling frisky, you know, his last meeting you're in the crack of joke make a golf joke out there.
[SPEAKER_13]: I can't just like come a classy exit.
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, it's not really leaving though, but you know, he always shows some class out there.
[SPEAKER_15]: Yeah, I think for all things said we've said this before minus the politics of the whole thing.
[SPEAKER_15]: He's been a steward on that podium and always kept his cool and my favorite will never forget when he wore the when he gave President Trump a tour of the Fed construction site and they both wore the hard hats that was that was an all-time.
[SPEAKER_15]: but that one in the American history, 250th birthday to summer, but that one in the Hall of Fame, because that was an awesome picture.
[SPEAKER_15]: If you followed any of my bets, holy cow Brian, three for five on the... May I?
[SPEAKER_15]: May I?
[SPEAKER_15]: Three for five.
[UNKNOWN]: May I?
[SPEAKER_15]: We had like a 30% winner, a 22% and a 9% on president.
[SPEAKER_15]: Unbelievable.
[SPEAKER_15]: Kind of snuck him in there.
[SPEAKER_15]: A pretty late.
[SPEAKER_15]: It got to the point either of his times where I thought he was going to say it.
[SPEAKER_15]: I was listening closely.
[SPEAKER_15]: He didn't say it and then that's why he's still got to believe.
[SPEAKER_15]: I added it up, I added it up here, added up all the winners, 135% winners for me, turn in double, double the money plus 35%, 135.
[SPEAKER_15]: Give this alpha out, dude.
[SPEAKER_13]: You just give it out.
[SPEAKER_13]: It's not in the crypto market, it's not in the stock market.
[SPEAKER_13]: You're out here just talking mention markets, absolutely eating.
[SPEAKER_15]: TV mentions.
[SPEAKER_15]: That's what they're saying.
[SPEAKER_15]: TV mentions unbelievable.
[SPEAKER_15]: Three out of five long shots on the mention market is we said before it's okay one you basically make your money back to your winning They don't even talk about three Now even talk about the people even people even hope for three unbelievable mention market W The calcium count is looking strong
[SPEAKER_15]: I guess we give a little teaser of the the bet for 27 or 26.
[SPEAKER_15]: Sorry is Will Johnny Manzell making on a college game day, which was Alfa and I gave Brian a couple a couple months ago when it came out.
[SPEAKER_15]: That's sitting pretty and we just got 135% winner here in the last 40 minutes.
[SPEAKER_15]: So the mentioned markets are strong.
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, I joined him as a man's Albert still one of my favorites, uh, you've ever given me and it's a nice long drawn out sweat, you know, we're going to talk, we're going to be talking about it in August, so it's one of those ones that you like to have, oh yeah, good day for the good day for the boys in the mentioned markets, uh, great, we both turn some profit there, which is great.
[SPEAKER_15]: uh... what would you think about what he had to say uh... he had a couple things that you know were little shaky there but kind of wrong just pretty neutral uh... with a market dance around and i'll put the s and p five hundred here real quick so you could see it was right here uh... when the when the decision came out uh... once he started talking and got a little hairy little squirrely the market did not like when he said uh...
[SPEAKER_15]: You know, they're looking high people talking about possible hikes, but then, but then he said something about five minutes later, wasn't right after that where he said, it was he was talking about the neutral rate, he was like, I think our neutral rate is, you know, between four and five or something and we're at four and a half, and that's on the high end.
[SPEAKER_15]: he gave you a little thought into his own brain of we think we're at the high end of neutral so yeah if inflation goes ramp again and we need to cut that's a different discussion but if you want to talk about where we are trying to do both for price stability and maximum employment uh... we're on the high end of the range of neutral which again is why they're leaning towards
[SPEAKER_15]: cutting and he's handing it off to somebody who in my thought is, you know, again, the Fed chair can't make the sole decision.
[SPEAKER_15]: He kind of explained that really well of, you know, the role of the Fed.
[SPEAKER_15]: But I don't think in the first meeting in June, the new Fed jump point it is going to change their neutral leaning or change their cut because they're looking to cut.
[SPEAKER_15]: I don't think he's they're going to reverse that even though they they will probably
[SPEAKER_15]: Um, the first meeting.
[SPEAKER_15]: I don't think they're going to come out and say, hey, we're no longer looking to cut.
[SPEAKER_15]: We're, you know, looking the other way.
[SPEAKER_15]: So
[SPEAKER_15]: The market did like that so you can see kind of from the moment he said that to now the market's at least asking He's moving up the one that got hit the most obviously is going to be the Russell here Because they need lower rates to go higher the Bitcoin market the crypto market Let's say it's just what kind of flat again same thing bouncing off the lows.
[SPEAKER_15]: They're not a ton of action so
[SPEAKER_15]: yeah i think it was it was a historic obviously it's his last time history will judge him uh you know he he navigated a lot the problem is you know Monday morning quarterback looking back at the pandemic um and some of these wars you just see through them uh but in the moment especially the pandemic now a lot of people really knew it was going on so uh you know i think uh over all the markets were higher uh during his tenure i think i heard it averaged 13 percent a year
[SPEAKER_15]: on average during his tenure for like called the S&P.
[SPEAKER_15]: So friendly to the markets and a new era begins with with wars.
[SPEAKER_15]: She did.
[SPEAKER_15]: We'll cover this on the rundown, but I did see that Kevin Wars passed the initial Senate vote.
[SPEAKER_15]: So now it goes to the full Senate vote and I think they need at least one or two Democrats to participate in that to go through.
[SPEAKER_15]: But
[SPEAKER_15]: But John Fetterman, Democrat from Pennsylvania said he's already going to vote, so it looks like this is going to happen.
[SPEAKER_15]: And as Paul signed off, he said goodbye.
[SPEAKER_15]: Any questions from anybody last call for questions in the chat?
[SPEAKER_15]: We actually had a pretty good live over.
[SPEAKER_15]: a couple hundred people tuning in.
[SPEAKER_15]: That's awesome.
[SPEAKER_15]: Thanks for tuning in.
[SPEAKER_15]: Any questions?
[SPEAKER_15]: Toss them in there.
[SPEAKER_15]: We'll answer.
[SPEAKER_15]: We are going to be back on Friday as well with Brendan.
[SPEAKER_15]: We're going to do a little technical analysis.
[SPEAKER_15]: Spectacular on Friday for everybody, but Brian, any closing thoughts before we head out today.
[SPEAKER_13]: you know I'm fired up we got to keep these fed rate decision videos going because I'm enjoying the mentioned markets we're leaving power on a winner so that that makes me feel a little bit better.
[SPEAKER_13]: Wars doesn't even know what he's coming into.
[SPEAKER_13]: couple of guys are pretty savvy with dimension markets right now he he needs the he needs to kind of step up his game but we don't we don't know what we I know I know very limited about wash I don't know what his favorite color is I don't know if he's going to go the purple tie if he's going to go blue or red so famy in the in the chat has an inside look of Kevin Worsh's favorite color or if they know his family intimately and you find some information
[SPEAKER_13]: all jokes aside it's you know it's kind of it's it's what we kind of expected nothing crazy happened during this it was fun to do the mention markets with it we're turning a page and there's good there's going to be a lot to a lot to happen here with wars now and the markets get certainly tested
[SPEAKER_13]: But overall the market right now is kind of kind of choppy just like what we said going in it's going to it's going to and that's okay.
[SPEAKER_13]: I'm I'm okay with that right now.
[SPEAKER_13]: I feel I feel comfy with my bags.
[SPEAKER_13]: I feel comfy with more than market is I'm okay with how things are looking and there's there's some brighter days ahead of I think so.
[SPEAKER_15]: Yeah, I think I kind of, maybe I came across as a little bear.
[SPEAKER_15]: She had long-term bull here, long-term permable.
[SPEAKER_15]: I just think that there's something here in the next couple months that could give us another by the dip opportunity.
[SPEAKER_15]: But I also think that specifically Bitcoin and like Ethereum, for example, you know, kind of led the way down.
[SPEAKER_15]: So I don't, I think that bottom, you know, is in or close to in and then I think that there's again some
[SPEAKER_15]: because that's that's the way markets work right it's like we kind of talked about at the other day of the sectors right money is going from here to there here to there but it's not coming out in cash so uh... the crypto market and the bitcoin theorem taking that hit and being low is an area that you've seen over the last couple weeks for the pain trade is higher so when the money does come out in the froth does come out you know i think a lot of uh...
[SPEAKER_15]: especially if the clarity act passes I think that's that's what we need and we hope that it's uh... you know positive for the crypto community positive for stable coin users especially so we can get some of those rewards but i think that's a huge thing for institutions they're kind of monitoring and once that goes that could be the green light we're testing a new fed share we've talked about that uh... and then also midterm so market doesn't like uncertainty
[SPEAKER_15]: I think there's going to be chances to allocate and make your own personal financial decisions of course, but you're going to have a window here to keep building your bags into the fall.
[SPEAKER_15]: I believe, but that's all the more reason why you're going to want to tune in all summer.
[SPEAKER_15]: You're going to want to like the video, bottom right, subscribe because the market moves before the actual event.
[SPEAKER_15]: So we're going to be monitoring that into the summer and what I'm
[SPEAKER_15]: You know, what's going to happen with the midterms is they're going to be a stalemate between the Senate, the House and the executive branch because when that happens, there's basically no legislation that'll go through and markets tend to know that because that means clarity and when the markets have clarity and know the rules of the road.
[SPEAKER_15]: Traditionally goes up and there could be, you know, again, we don't know what's going to happen, but if that happens, that's a two-year window to kind of go have some fun.
[SPEAKER_15]: So, Clarity Act classes to your window pretty bullish going into the end of the year in 27, but I think there's going to be some volatility for us over the summer.
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, it's kind of, it's kind of lining up, uh, this whole four-year cycle that we all discounted.
[SPEAKER_13]: And now it looks like it's a perfect four-year cycle.
[SPEAKER_13]: It's kind of lining up perfect.
[SPEAKER_15]: Flames out of the boat.
[SPEAKER_15]: Say, everybody got, I even admit, I even admit, I was like, there's so much bullishness around the cycle's dead.
[SPEAKER_15]: It was, you know, it was a good, it was a, and it looked, it looked like it.
[SPEAKER_15]: Right, we're ripping.
[SPEAKER_15]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_15]: And we're kind of all waiting for that blow off top, but, uh, the market,
[SPEAKER_15]: At all times we'll humble everybody at some point and if somebody tells you all they do is win Their lion to you because everybody learns lessons along the way and that's what this show's about is Unyou know doing it together weekend and weekend multiple times a week And having fun along the way as we do it.
[SPEAKER_15]: I will say I'm excited for horses first Pressure Brian because
[SPEAKER_15]: people aren't going to be able to uh... they're not going to be able to price the markets i feel like properly right now get maybe some old speeches and interviews but uh... you know i think it's yeah i mean we're up on this one up big up huge some are calling it the best prediction market mentions uh... you know the results in history uh... for a live podcast people are saying it i don't know if to check the data
[SPEAKER_15]: But I think I'm taking all those winnings and I'm doubling down on some, uh, some low end, uh, you know, odds because how are you going to price the first ever, uh, fed thing.
[SPEAKER_15]: So I think, I think there's going to be some winners there too.
[SPEAKER_13]: Yeah, we'll get some fun.
[SPEAKER_13]: It's going to be a good one.
[SPEAKER_13]: It's something to look forward to.
[SPEAKER_13]: I'm just stuck on what color ties going to wear.
[SPEAKER_13]: Maybe worse once the wear Bitcoin orange really shake up the markets and get us to get our blood pumping.
[SPEAKER_13]: Maybe we'll never know.
[SPEAKER_15]: With that if it's t-shirt, he just walks out.
[SPEAKER_15]: for all of this long time listeners and every week if you listen to the episodes weekend and we can't you love that one that's a callback let's wrap it up that was fun hour twenty two minutes that's about as long as we do here appreciate everybody tuning in on youtube again give it a like subscribe bottom right we'll be back Friday everybody on audio we always appreciate you listening as well but that's gonna be all for today have a great Wednesday Thursday we will see everybody live on Friday thanks as always but that's