[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues, from the MLB draft, all the way to the show.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's up, everyone?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed podcast brought to you by Rotabauer.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 447.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB and the show is at Toolshed Pod, continuing to talk about some early notable performances, both good and bad in this episode.
[SPEAKER_01]: This one over hitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a last episode with Joe Errico, so we missed that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Go back to check that out, and now I'm doing the pitcher side with another great guest to talk it over with me.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is a writer in podcasts or at fan graphs, Twitch partner, and a content designer for out of the park, baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is one part of the award winning, sleeper and the bust.
[SPEAKER_01]: Park.
[SPEAKER_01]: cast at Spore on Twitter at SPOR ER.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's Paul Spore.
[SPEAKER_01]: How you doing, bud?
[SPEAKER_03]: Eric, I'm doing very well.
[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you so much for that very kind and I appreciate it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you guys are obviously the the gold standard in this industry and the 20 25 FSWA podcast of the year so congratulations on that you guys you guys do a great part I was just thinking about this the other day too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, now I could pair you guys like a great good band that puts up good, you know, albums and stuff and you see them live like seeing you guys do like a live podcast out in Arizona is like even better for some reason than thank you.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's a huge compliment.
[SPEAKER_03]: Because we love, we love the Arizona episode.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's very big each year for us.
[SPEAKER_03]: So that's a really huge compliment.
[SPEAKER_03]: I definitely appreciate that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, you guys, but obviously phenomenal, you know, episodes whenever, but then like that live one every year and, you know, early November out there, it's always just always something fun happening, something crazy.
[SPEAKER_03]: We actually play the hits there too, you know, we got to make sure we've got, you know, maybe acting a little bit wild, but not too wild, you know, we got to keep it, we got to keep it.
[SPEAKER_03]: As we always do you know you hear me on any podcast sometime the second someone brings up Arizona I'm gonna bring up first pitch errors on a happened to November folks if you can plan for it Start now, you know if it's something where you need a lot of leeway or a lot of runway to kind of figure out your plans
[SPEAKER_03]: Early November.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's one of the greatest trips every single year.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's my greatest trip because it's one I do consistently It's a great way to kind of stock up on baseball for the winter too.
[SPEAKER_03]: You get to hang out with a bunch of great baseball people It's an electric weekend and then it kind of covers you through the winter.
[SPEAKER_03]: It feels far away now, but again, if you need a lot of leeway to plan your trips, get started now so that you're ready for it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's crazy that we're actually closer to F past 26 than we are to F past 25, we're like, that's just under six months away.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we're closer to the next one, but hey, don't want to wish away the baseball, we just get into it.
[SPEAKER_01]: We just got into it.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're what two and a half or three weeks, wherever we are.
[SPEAKER_01]: into the season, but we already have some really notable performances, again, both positive and negative, and we'll break them all down in this one.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's start with the, you know, some of these are negatives, some are just not quite as positive as we might have thought.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's start with Cole Rake, and this was actually just got done pitching now or recording on, what is today?
[SPEAKER_01]: Tuesday night.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he just got done.
[SPEAKER_01]: He did, you know, Reagan's hit pitch six set out innings, one hit, but four walks and one strike out.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's still kind of an odd line there, but hey, no runs is still good, 378 ERA now, but kind of just not looking like the the Reagan's that we kind of came to know and love, you know, last year was a bit of a down here, but he was injured, still struck out a bunch of guys, underline metrics are good.
[SPEAKER_01]: This year he's just walking a lot more
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, he had a really good strike at the right coming into this one, but again, only the one strike out here, but had a five down to one ERA and a one 54 whip entering this one, those have come down.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, given what we saw last year, what we've seen this year, are you at all concerned right now with with coal radians or see guy that you're just not worried about it all and you think you just got to get back to doing this thing here.
[SPEAKER_03]: Regans is definitely a set it in for get it from you right now with today having been maybe one area where I maybe could have seen somebody sitting just if they were overly worried about the thumb I put that in my SP chart for today on on Tuesday I said you know if you want to skip this one.
[SPEAKER_03]: or if you're a little tentative about this one, okay, maybe, but long-term I'm not concerned.
[SPEAKER_03]: If for those who don't know he got blasted by a comebacker in his last outing off a J-RAM, and maybe that affected him today a little bit with maybe some of his swing and miss or some of his control, but he was still good.
[SPEAKER_03]: He kept the Tigers off balance, only one hit.
[SPEAKER_03]: So yes, the the sexiness of the skills isn't there with four walks, one K, but the results were good.
[SPEAKER_03]: Six endings, one hit, shut out ball.
[SPEAKER_03]: You're taking that to the bank.
[SPEAKER_03]: all day.
[SPEAKER_03]: And sometimes guys skate when their skills aren't quite there.
[SPEAKER_03]: So for him to bounce back off of that shortened outing and being injured in it for Regans, I think has to be encouraging.
[SPEAKER_03]: And like I said, coming into this regardless of how he had performed, I wasn't worried long term.
[SPEAKER_03]: And this just encourages that even more.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I heaved up.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think you kind of got through the one scare of that injury, and now as long as we don't hear anything about that thumb or anything like that, I think this was just a tough game where the Tigers were swinging early.
[SPEAKER_03]: He was getting about, though, too.
[SPEAKER_03]: A lot of ground balls, a lot of, you know, sorely hit balls, 70% ground ball rates.
[SPEAKER_03]: straightouts are awesome.
[SPEAKER_03]: We want him in fantasy, but he was still succeeding.
[SPEAKER_03]: The walks are what you need to be concerned with.
[SPEAKER_03]: You mentioned that because that's not just for this start here with Regans, but I just don't think it's action of why I can't see any world where I'm taking him out.
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, outside of maybe if you skipped tonight, just because you were a little nervous.
[SPEAKER_03]: I could see that even though I wasn't doing myself, it was more of like for like a DFS thing.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, you ranked the guys each day.
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe he wasn't the ace.
[SPEAKER_03]: I
[SPEAKER_03]: I wasn't going to take him out even with New York in the Bronx lurking over the weekend.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's definitely fair and yeah, Reagan's is not when I'm concerned about much at all either, just because all the red flags that I look for in early season, he doesn't really have any of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the Velo's down a little bit, but it's under a mile-proud drop on the foreseamers.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not really like out of the ordinary for early season thing, and he's still
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, withing a lot of, you know, with rates are really good on all the second areas.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it wasn't really tonight, and this one, but yeah, he's not really at all concerning to me.
[SPEAKER_01]: And last year, you know, obviously the era where it was high was, you know, over four and half, but all the era indicators for the Northart War, you know, low threes, even in the, you know, upper twos, you know, and obviously the strikeout rate was phenomenal last year, 30%, and even entering this one, it was 32 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, the walks I am concerned about, I was, you know, get a little bit concerned,
[SPEAKER_01]: percent, which is kind of where he's at, but yeah, I'm not concerned whatsoever, uh, here with Cole Regans moving on to the next name here Kyle Braddish.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got that had a lot of hype.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think like the two biggest hype guys and drafts these in this year were Ben Rice on the hitting side and then probably Braddish on the pitching side.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was pushed well inside the top 100, which is way higher than I thought he was going to be pushed.
[SPEAKER_01]: I knew those I ran them.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, back at October when we were starting to get drafts going, but I thought it'd be going, yeah, he'll be like 120, 130, 80 P. Nope.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was completely way off on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, first three starts for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Have him in the greatest.
[SPEAKER_01]: Another guy that's blocking a lot, you get to wonder, you know, walk rates are up across the board.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, ABS, factory again.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think walk rates are up like.
[SPEAKER_01]: one and a half to two percent overall from last time I checked about 14.8% walk rate for radish in first three outings 13 and two thirds innings, 17 strikeouts, 527 ERA, 168 whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: But another one where the XERA is considerably lower,
[SPEAKER_01]: then that surface here right by right around two runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So definitely some hope there that there's been a little bit of a flukiness in these first three outings, but on one six eight whip is not great either.
[SPEAKER_01]: So any concern here and maybe you know where we possibly over-hyping right at should a little bit here in draft season this year, Paul.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it's certainly possible.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I was up there with Bradish Adam ranked SP 17 was really encouraged by the six starts we saw last year.
[SPEAKER_03]: And you know, I fully understood that it with six starts, holy smokes, the Tigers just tied it up on a wild pitch that neither salving nor the pitcher could necessarily find in my chemistry scamp or home to time.
[SPEAKER_03]: it up maybe because even I talked before before we started that if the Tigers tied it I would probably react well I've to it so it's tied up and the game's probably long, definitely long over by the time you were listening, that's hopefully the Tigers win.
[SPEAKER_03]: But as far as Kyle Braddish goes I do have a little bit of concern.
[SPEAKER_03]: Even three starts in that maybe we did go a little bit too far with it because I kind of thought he'd come in a little bit more ready made this year because the skills were so tight last year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, he was returning from TJ, but he didn't show the normal return issues, you know, the inconsistent command and control.
[SPEAKER_03]: He was kind of Kyle Braddish the stud from Jump Street last year.
[SPEAKER_03]: And again, even though it was a small sample, I liked that he kind of got some of the return out of his system where I thought he did, and that he would maybe come into this here kind of ready to be 2023 Kyle Braddish.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's kind of how I was operating.
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe not a sub three
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I ranked in 17th.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not going to sit here in the soft pedal that I didn't think the cow branch was going to be an absolute monster.
[SPEAKER_03]: And to that end, it's similar to Reagan's.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're none of this is actionable yet though.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not going to sit a guy off these three starts.
[SPEAKER_03]: Even with a few warning signs of the elevated walk rate up to 15% that's horrendous.
[SPEAKER_03]: No way, no two ways to slice that.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the Velo down in my aisle, which is right around when you start to give some concern to it down from 94, 4 to 93, 5.
[SPEAKER_03]: But
[SPEAKER_03]: Neither of those are enough to push me off of CalBradish right now.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to be seeing this through for a good 9-10 starts before I make any sort of drastic maneuver.
[SPEAKER_03]: Barring, you know, something that looks like he's hurt.
[SPEAKER_03]: If the Velo comes out at 90 or something, obviously, I reserve the right to change that.
[SPEAKER_03]: But if he's pitching like this, even with the inconsistent control,
[SPEAKER_03]: I am running nine 10 starts here before I'm going to make any sort of moves like I'm going to go with the two step next week at KC home to your red socks I'm going to see this through a bit before I make too much of a jump off of him because I just think it's too early especially for the pick that you invested and I know I know there's like the sunk cost fallacy and all that.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I don't think we're there yet.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I don't think me referencing the fact that we paid a premium pick is at the point where you just say, well, no, don't throw good money after batter.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, any other adage that people say when you say that, I still think we're in the zone where a guy like this that you spent such an early pick on, you really shouldn't be checking them until Memorial Day.
[SPEAKER_03]: So that's how I'm gonna be with Braddish.
[SPEAKER_03]: I still watch every start.
[SPEAKER_03]: I still wanna know what's going on with him, but it's not actionable for me.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not even taking him out of a 10 team line up at this point and the Tigers took the lead.
[SPEAKER_03]: God, we're awesome.
[SPEAKER_01]: There you go, look at that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, awesome, but I'm excited.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'll base it, drove in McGon and go double four whoever's on second, I can't tell right now.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think Keith, but I'm not entirely sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Nice, there you go, right on the air, taking the lead, hopefully they close it out here, but yeah, I know Brad is just one that I was right there, Chuck.
[SPEAKER_01]: where I had him ranked, but I think it was anywhere from the 1617 to maybe like 2021.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was definitely in that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: Every year, he was on the mound.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was kind of studded, the last three years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, you know, the previous two were not, you know, great terms of volume.
[SPEAKER_01]: We know that, but
[SPEAKER_01]: three straight years for Bradaged for the year right under three you know his whip was like just about one every year You know pretty good straight got rates last two years well over 30% will keep in the walker eight and check, you know You know there was not a lot of bad in the profile outside of obviously the time miss like we don't get the the skills You know they were there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So just all about can he give you the volume and he appears to be healthy.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's a definite you know encouraging
[SPEAKER_01]: Sign right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see if it stays, but yeah, I'm not too worried.
[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned that the velocity down a little bit, you know, the biggest thing I see here is the the sinker, which is the most used fatty of fastball uses that more than the foreseemner by and right on a three to one ratio is just all over the place.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's doing it too high in the zone even above the zone like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Look at the heat map of the sinkers kind of all over the place sliders are too bad.
[SPEAKER_03]: curveballs, whatever force you must find, we have that that sinker is kind of wild right now and to put a single number on that location plus it works like all the other plus stats 100 is average below is bad in this case above is good the sinker location plus for Brad is she's down to 85.
[SPEAKER_03]: So he's 15% worse than Lee garage, just for context 114108, the last two years, which are just small samples, but then 107 in his big 2023 breakout.
[SPEAKER_03]: So he's well off.
[SPEAKER_03]: You diagnosed it perfectly.
[SPEAKER_03]: The sinkers off right now.
[SPEAKER_03]: Keep an eye on that.
[SPEAKER_03]: And if and when that improves, that will drive the success for British.
[SPEAKER_03]: That is the big key right now.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think everything's kind of playing off of that to the negative.
[SPEAKER_03]: And once he gets that in order again, if he does, I think things go correct.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely because you know he's got a not only he doesn't miss bats at a pretty good clip he gets the ground balls as well kind of checks up all those boxes that I looked for to got that I was going to rank as a top 20 starter and I think that guy's still in there so yeah fix the sinker I think we're looking at a much better you know version of Radish here
[SPEAKER_01]: moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the other kind of, maybe the second biggest hyped picture of Draft season is off to a pretty poor start.
[SPEAKER_01]: It has some velocity concerns.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is Emmet Sheehan, and I was definitely one of the the loudest drum bangers.
[SPEAKER_01]: What it came to?
[SPEAKER_01]: Sheehan, I was, you know, I loved him last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was, you know, banging the drum all off season to anybody that would listen.
[SPEAKER_01]: articles on podcasts, whatever, probably a video or two here and there everywhere I was just talking about she had and I'm not trying to like and hit the you know panic button sound the alarm up to three starts and only fifteen innings but he's another one where he he doesn't have you know full season under his bell he's been under hundred innings
[SPEAKER_01]: each of the last two years and some of that's been injuries and it's just been the Dodgers having an absolutely loaded rotation in the all times, but you know right now the the Velo and this was something that was kind of an issue in spring training as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's down over a full mile an hour and you see it dipping even further later in the starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: The fact that he was been throwing some 92-93 mile an hour fastballs as opposed to the 94-95-96 or
[SPEAKER_01]: Drop on that forseemer, you know, a little bit of drop on the other pitches as well, but really that forseemer is the issue.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that that pitch is just getting absolutely charlact right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Use three home runs allowed on the forseemer to three strike out.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the 500 petting average again.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, definitely a little bit of concern here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still love the talent, but are you concerned right now on I am.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I'm going to take up for our boy, Nick, I did this on my show too.
[SPEAKER_03]: He didn't ask for this, but I just it pissed me off how people reacted when he sounded the alarm a little bit on on some of the VLO drop in spring and then there was that uncertainty about whether or not he's going to be in the rotation.
[SPEAKER_03]: Then he got named to the rotation.
[SPEAKER_03]: And people use that to like go against Nick for reporting the VLO dip and I didn't really understand that I know it's like an isolated Twitter thing and who cares about Twitter It should be the real answer here, but then annoyed me because like first off he was just reporting He was just trying to put people Give them knowledge about what was going on with a fan favorite or a fantasy favorite We were pumping this guy up and he was saying hey be careful because the legal is going crazy.
[SPEAKER_03]: He likes she and two so anyway
[SPEAKER_03]: I didn't see how him getting named the rotation invalidated the concerns that Nick had and now a few starts in.
[SPEAKER_03]: Nick's concerns are proving to be correct and all he said was, hey, the video's down maybe will be a little bit careful here and that's exactly what we're seeing.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's just not surviving down here at 94 after being 96 last year.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, if you compare to last year, it's way down
[SPEAKER_03]: almost a half mile in the regular season to 94 or three, but that's still down right now, and he's just not getting the results that we expected from Xi'an.
[SPEAKER_03]: But again, because of the investment I made, I'm going to do more than 15 innings, that it's just that simple.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't really care how, I almost had only care how poorly these are going, but these aren't going poorly enough to completely take me off a guy that I loved three weeks ago.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, it's upsetting, but you know, and I know we use this one a lot in the fantasy community, but if this was in June,
[SPEAKER_03]: We wouldn't be reacting as sharply, but it's the beginning of the season as the only stats we have.
[SPEAKER_03]: So it feels worse.
[SPEAKER_03]: In this case, I will say I shouldn't lean on that too heavily because it is also paired with a VLO drop.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I guess maybe even in June, we would probably say, hey, wait, the VLO is down and he's getting smoked.
[SPEAKER_03]: I really shouldn't use that adage in the case of she hit, but the bottom line is I'm gonna see this through very similarly to what I said about Braddish.
[SPEAKER_03]: Nine ten starts before I really jump off the rails here, even with a trip to Colorado this weekend that didn't push me off of him.
[SPEAKER_03]: He gets the trip to Colorado and then the cubs, two nice challenges here going into Colorado.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know that the Rockies aren't particularly scary, but anytime you go to Colorado it's tough and the cubs have a deep good lineup.
[SPEAKER_03]: And if we don't say anything here,
[SPEAKER_03]: then maybe some of your show starts to sit him.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'd still be very reluctant to cut him in really any case right now until I get to that nine ten-starred situation for she and as Kenley Janssen tries to blow this game with the time run on third now and just one now.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm keeping everyone abreast of this game that's going to be long over by the time they hear this.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, I hope not.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have a couple can't even share so I hope he doesn't blow this.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's going to need to figure something out.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I don't know.
[SPEAKER_03]: You can't walk the winning run with Vinnie P on to get the double plan order so he's going to need to get a strike out here or they're going to have to hold around.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's going to be tough.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's going to be tough here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And hopefully he figures it out because, you know, Jen, this has become like my, I was called him my Tony Gonzalez of fantasy baseball, where I was just, he's about $20.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even when he was old, oh, yeah, he's old, but he's, he's, he's, he's gonna give me a thousand yards and eight touchdowns like Johnson, yeah, he's old, yeah, he's past, he's gonna give me like 25, 30 saves and like I've mid three year, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Just book it.
[SPEAKER_03]: And AJ is going to trust him.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like AJ's moved the closers roll around because they haven't had a Kenley Jance.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I know Kenley Jance is not like like just like you said he's not Pete Kenley Jance anymore, but he was pretty good last year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know he had some some good luck to go with it.
[SPEAKER_03]: But if he's pitching pretty well, I think
[SPEAKER_03]: think that's just going to be the button that AJ hits pretty consistently.
[SPEAKER_03]: If there's three lefties coming up, sure it might be a Tyler Holtton here, or a Will Vest there if Kenlee's worked back to back or whatever, but I think you can pretty confidently trust that Kenlee should be pushing 25 or so saves assuming the Tigers are pretty good this year, which I think they're going to be.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, agreed that it's looking not to get out of subject here.
[SPEAKER_01]: But looking at this box score, if I had told you that in this game, Reagan's and Frember Valdez were combined for 13 innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll need to strike out.
[SPEAKER_03]: That'd be you to been surprised, but both pitch, again, it's very same vibe with Valdez too, where yeah, he wasn't dominant, but he was keeping the ball on the ground.
[SPEAKER_03]: He was keeping them off off killtor.
[SPEAKER_03]: They both really pitched tonight.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I know in today's heavy strikeout world, we want those punches because that's just the clearest way to keep the success going.
[SPEAKER_03]: But they both pitched well.
[SPEAKER_03]: don't be, uh, you know, deterred by either one strike out performance, both those guys looked.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't want to say they're at their sharpest, but they were sharp enough.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, just like Robleschi the other night and if you want to Yes, and eight innings had like two strikeouts, something like that, you know, That's why we love baseball success can come in many different ways.
[SPEAKER_01]: Strike a bunch of guys out you can get a bunch of ground balls weak contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we love it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, she hands not one.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm I'm a I'm more concerned with she and that I am with with like Reagan's or Brad just because like this would not have a loss of the thing as as you both mentioned.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the Dodgers will pull the plug before I think the Orioles or the Royals would ever consider it.
[SPEAKER_03]: Because the simple fact is, there's no, there's not enough track record for she-hand to be locked in, whereas Brad is his damn near their ace.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, Trevor Rogers may be, you know, however they break that down.
[SPEAKER_03]: And then Reagan's is there on question days.
[SPEAKER_03]: So neither of those guys are going anywhere as long as they're healthy, whereas she-hand could easily get taken out if he has another couple bad starts in the videos down.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't understand that they have a few guys in AAA like River Rhine could come up and they got some guys coming back from injury here eventually, you know, you're going to get snow black, snow back at some points.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, definitely could see if she can still have in this issue, maybe he just gets pumped out or whatever, but a little bit I'll say a slight concern here, not fair clinic yet, but.
[SPEAKER_01]: One more guess.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to get your thoughts on another Dodger not on the list here to talk about tonight, but What the heck are we going to do with rookie society?
[SPEAKER_03]: Like obviously the pain me firmness here couldn't have paid me to touch him this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I was it was a full out.
[SPEAKER_03]: I am not quitting the guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: Dynasty league, keep relief, things like that, you know, where you might want to
[SPEAKER_03]: invest in the long term.
[SPEAKER_03]: I still see the vision.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I will not be surprised if they if they get the most out of him.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I just don't see it this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think he's just so broken this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I still feel like we're tracking now toward future closer.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know we saw it a bit in the playoffs.
[SPEAKER_03]: But what really bothered, I don't want to say bothered.
[SPEAKER_03]: But what really flung me a bit from the fantasy folks was,
[SPEAKER_03]: they read too deeply into that playoff bullpen performance.
[SPEAKER_03]: He really wasn't that good.
[SPEAKER_03]: He had a couple good outings, but he was still crazy while that still had no idea where the ball was going, but the J's didn't really know either.
[SPEAKER_03]: And so sometimes, you know, what they call it effectively wild for a reason.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a podcast named after it.
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's basically what he was in the playoffs.
[SPEAKER_03]: I didn't think he was ready to be the dude.
[SPEAKER_03]: I understand why we want to annoying him because his skills are,
[SPEAKER_03]: are sexy when they're working.
[SPEAKER_03]: But he just has no clue where the ball is going right now.
[SPEAKER_03]: So Roku is totally off my board this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: At virtually any cost, I'm not out completely on the 24 year old with his raw talent, though.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and you still see that raw talent like you look at like the WIFRATE this year's like it was a 32% right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's getting nearly 30% chase rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a bit of, you know, slider splitter both of a WIFRATE about 35%.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just that fastball is getting absolutely pummeled.
[SPEAKER_01]: 381 batting average against the 714 slugs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there's the issue, and then also that's a little bit of an issue of a, you know, 16% Walker is also kind of an issue, but yeah, I'm not out on him at all, but yeah, he has been a major disappointment so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: Both, you know, last year was underwhelming, and then this year, you know, terrible to start.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can imagine he gets bumped out at some point.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see, but yeah, so a lot of talent, but yeah, I don't see a big impact this year, but you know, maybe they can fix him for 27 and beyond, we'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: But another guy with a high walk rate can have a one of the common trends here so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bubba Chandler.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't figure out what heck I want to do with a Bubba Chandler and how I want to now you him.
[SPEAKER_01]: And until I figure out where I think I've got it figured out, then he kind of like,
[SPEAKER_01]: chips.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, oh, you know, there's the Walker issue last year, Triple A.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then he gets at the major leagues as a 3% walk rate, like what's going on here?
[SPEAKER_01]: And now it's back up to 19% right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has nearly as many walks as straight out so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the stuff is, you know, it's sexy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's, there's no better way to put it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He throws 99, 100 miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got, he's almost like, misgirousky light where it's like, everything is just freaking hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, change up 92.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sliders 90.
[SPEAKER_01]: you're even your sweeper and curve ball around 87, which is very hard for those two offerings.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you see the good with rates, you know, but the walk rate is the one thing that's really really concerning to me.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's had a high walk rate ever since he started having the deal with ABS, which is something pitchers that live on the black or guttogets, you know, that higher walk rate than the you.
[SPEAKER_01]: too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So are you at all concern right now with public change.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have the time to have the nibles with the walk rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: That works.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a super high.
[SPEAKER_03]: A Milox step with you that the town is undeniable and it's why I understood taking a chance on him.
[SPEAKER_03]: If he was your guy this year and you're kind of hoping for a little bit of a leap.
[SPEAKER_03]: First off,
[SPEAKER_03]: The book isn't written yet.
[SPEAKER_03]: He could still make it, but early on, the returns are suggesting that the leap isn't necessarily ready to come with a 19% walk rate.
[SPEAKER_03]: It is still that singular issue that's holding him back.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think people wanted to believe a little bit more in the 31 innings last year than you probably should have, because that is still such a tiny sample.
[SPEAKER_03]: But he was so good with the walk rate with 3%.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like that's insane.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like that's
[SPEAKER_03]: cop in the scale type walk rate there.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's just not who he was talent wise though.
[SPEAKER_03]: That was a small sample that went well and to your point.
[SPEAKER_03]: You said he started struggling with ABS hit.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, so that explains why the walk rates and the miners were so high.
[SPEAKER_03]: He comes up last year in a non ABS majors, 3% walk rate.
[SPEAKER_03]: This year in a majors ABS 19%.
[SPEAKER_03]: So he like you said he clearly lives on the blackbubble channel or does trying to get those zone calls and he throws super hard too.
[SPEAKER_03]: So he doesn't always know where it's going.
[SPEAKER_03]: So when he's when he's
[SPEAKER_03]: Controlling the ball he is still working the black and then when he's not controlling the ball It's wild fastballs all over the place to at 99 so again raw town is there I think he's a couple steps ahead of Rokey, but it's the same sort of vibe where It doesn't look good right now in the path forward could be a little bit tough to figure out how he's gonna be a stud this year I think he's gonna be inconsistent and a little bit tough to manage because the tough part about a guy like Baba is
[SPEAKER_03]: It won't be match-up dependent.
[SPEAKER_03]: It will all be on him.
[SPEAKER_03]: And when Bubba's on, if I knew, like if you could guarantee me, if you could read the future and say he's on tonight, I'd throw him against the Dodgers.
[SPEAKER_03]: But if you tell me he's off, I wouldn't throw him against the Rockies on the road.
[SPEAKER_03]: Right, he's one of those guys where it's not about the matchups.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's about where he's at with his command and control matchup be damned, but you just don't know what you're going to get week to week start to start.
[SPEAKER_03]: So he's going to be frustrating.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think if you invested, you should stick it out a little bit longer.
[SPEAKER_03]: Even in your shower leagues, maybe not the nine to ten starts.
[SPEAKER_03]: I've been saying with those other guys, but at least you know, five, six, maybe upwards of eight, but it's going to be frustrating.
[SPEAKER_03]: And until we really see a leap with his command and control for Bumble Channel,
[SPEAKER_03]: This is the guy that we have.
[SPEAKER_03]: Uber-tounded, great one start off over the next because zero walks in one, five in the next and that sort of inconsistency with him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I called him, Mr.
[SPEAKER_01]: Rescue Light, and that's guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: It feels a...
[SPEAKER_01]: what you're saying, my miserable last year, where he was kind of showing a great start, bad start, great start, bad start, just being inconsistent in general.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like we're just, you know, about eight months or so behind, you know, with Bobo Chandler right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, he's a guy that you see the upside being, you know, maybe not an ace for fantasy, but definitely like an opportunity to, yeah, definitely like maybe maybe we could stick in the back end, ace consideration, but like that's the upside we're talking about here, but yeah, he's definitely so very, very raw,
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm not saying like the ABS is the entire reason for us is, uh, block the issue, but it just kind of seems like it was kind of odd where it wasn't really an issue in the low my low miners got the upper miners to play ABS and now it's been an issue for him last, you know, year and a half now, but yeah, definitely want to see him get that walk right down.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I can live if it's 10 11% with his stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: I call him the Freddie Pearl at the rule, you know, if it's 10 11% but with great stuff, you get the strikeouts, you can live with that, but 12 plus percent I'm pretty concerned.
[SPEAKER_01]: No one can really live with that except like
[SPEAKER_01]: Basically exactly it's really hard for a starter, but we'll see it's only three starts so you're not not trying to overblow it But definitely just an area of concern here for Mr. Brubba Chandler Let's get over to some good guys now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, plenty of pictures off the good starts and a few that just came out of freaking nowhere
[SPEAKER_01]: be fun to talk about them, but let's start with, you know, one of the more fun starts the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: And as I put it here on the outline, Cam Schwitler is slitting on the competition.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he absolutely is four starts, 249 ERA, zero seven four whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got that does not have a walk right issue 1.2% which I think leads baseball on high starters so far and a 37% strikeout rate came a last year for about we know little under half a season 14 starts sub three year a you know had a good post season dominated my red socks in the wild card round so already had a lot of hype and he's got that just tick took that hype and went right past it blew through the hype you know to the point where you know
[SPEAKER_01]: Is he now we got it we should be talking about it as like a top 20 top 25 starter or so because he's been so good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yet so young, but I put out a poll, you know, just basically fill in the blank.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kim Schwitler is a top blank SP for fantasy moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: 27% said top 15 36% said top 20 25% top 25 and 12% not top 25.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the hype is definitely getting up there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you buying it Paul?
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you buying Kim Schwitler?
[SPEAKER_03]: I am.
[SPEAKER_03]: I had him ranked 35th saying, you know, the hype was worth buying.
[SPEAKER_03]: If I keys your guy, go out and get him.
[SPEAKER_03]: I saw the vision that folks had for him.
[SPEAKER_03]: I didn't I don't have a ton of him, but that doesn't mean I was out and I in my SP right up.
[SPEAKER_03]: Coming into the season I said that the controlled development will kind of drive for this season goes and I was like anything under eight percent would intrigue me because he was at ten percent walk right last year And you mentioned he's at one point two percent.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think he's going to quite hold that But if he's in a neat walk right guy if we're talking like six percent in a lower than I do think we're going to get an ace season right away here like he is that impressive And I'll tell you something this is a soft factor and that's why I didn't really put it in my in my SPR to quite don't say it a lot on the pod because that
[SPEAKER_03]: It's hard to really go off of it, but I really, really thought that he had the demeanor to be a starter when I saw him By the way, again, this is a very soft factor that I don't put into a lot of my fantasy analysis because he just never know But seeing him in the interviews last year, I saw him on the MLB Central I saw him in his post games and just the way that he can handle the ups and downs Basically because he was the same and I The little drug toy when I say this, but the same boring guy each time just kind of that same
[SPEAKER_03]: even killed dude, whether he's coming off of a great outing or terrible one, that's how you have to be in the bics.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm an energetic guy, I'm kind of an up and downing, I'm riding the waves of when things are going well and maybe angry when things are going poorly, that's probably why I would have never cut it as a pitcher.
[SPEAKER_03]: That end town, those are the only two things, but I just don't think that that's how it is.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's it, that's just missing a little bit of town.
[SPEAKER_03]: But no, like you have to have like I maybe I could have been a reliever because they can be freaks back there and ride the highs and lows, but even them The closer really shouldn't be that guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's really the middle relievers who maybe can get away with it But I was really impressed with how composed he was as a young kid and That kind of gave me that first inkling of like whoa this guy could be something different.
[SPEAKER_03]: This was early in his come-up last year when he was on MLB Central and Then watching him the rest of the way.
[SPEAKER_03]: I just was really impressed
[SPEAKER_03]: Because you got to have that demeanor to live in New York, too, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: I know that we always talk about how, I think, first of all, I think we overstate how players can't handle New York.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think anytime someone struggles, they're like, oh, it's because it's New York.
[SPEAKER_03]: No, sometimes players just struggle there.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I do think there is an element of if you let all that get to you, you are going to sink there.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, it can eat you alive if you let it, and Cam, or came off to me quickly as somebody who wasn't going to let that happen even if you struggled.
[SPEAKER_03]: You pair that with extreme talent, and now you do have the making of an ace.
[SPEAKER_03]: He reminds me of his, of his ace partner, Max Freed, a rotation man, I should say, you know, who obviously left handed to his right hand, but that same sort of even
[SPEAKER_03]: Obviously, I'm about to mention the ace of all aces, but when the way skin's handling is opening day, same sort of vibe where you're just like, good.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't want to see this guy coming in and throw in the cooler and all that I know that like people want to do that.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think sometimes they do that.
[SPEAKER_03]: So people think that they care, but I just think that ends up being I wash at that point, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: If you just go in there and try to wreck everything in the clubhouse because you had a bad game people know you had a bad game And they know that you didn't you don't love that you had a bad game But I was super impressed with schemes the way he handled that opening day and I just think that that's an ace demeanor to not ride too high too
[SPEAKER_03]: And again, there's outliers, there are aces who have been very emotional and it's worked for them.
[SPEAKER_03]: But Cam's look at age 25 showing the composure he has with the talent that we've seen, the swing and miss is off the charts, the walk rate is so crazy.
[SPEAKER_03]: And again, if he's going to live at 6% or under and he's got wiggle room on that, I really think we're going to get the aces in this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I love that you brought that up too.
[SPEAKER_01]: kind of demeanor because I remember I want to say it was at first pitch Florida.
[SPEAKER_01]: I could be a miss remembering.
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember Ian Con had a nice presentation kind of on that similar a lot of thinking.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to pick up some of these things.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have to be actively watching the game and the pre game post game stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: But sometimes you could pick up some of those things that you just mentioned about Camus Footwear and I think that's so real, you know, very much important, especially in these big markets.
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree.
[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't completely, you know, be the
[SPEAKER_01]: the reason why a guy struggles are not struggles, but it definitely is a factor.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's harder to pitch, I think, in New York, Boston, Philly.
[SPEAKER_01]: These types of really tough towns, as opposed to, you know, no offense to Miami or a real Pittsburgh or Kansas City, but you know, not quite the same level of intensity.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just about intention.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, like you said intensity.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's 50 reporters versus two, you know?
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, it's no dig on those markets.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's just the size that they are.
[SPEAKER_03]: And it doesn't mean that they don't care, that they don't cover the sport.
[SPEAKER_03]: But when you got 50 reporters covering your every move in New York Boston, Philly, and these huge markets, that's a big deal.
[SPEAKER_03]: And it can be tough.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, we saw a guy, someone who I actually would have thought maybe would have been able to handle it.
[SPEAKER_03]: admitted himself that he kind of cracked under the pressure of it was Joey Gallo the struggles that he had there in New York and he said that that kind of that kind of got to him and like hey I get it like you really got to try to run it not as a pro and I understand you know that that's that's something that they have to battle but I at least understand it and so when he said that you know it was starting to get to because he hits my bodyweight and for those that don't know man I'm 65 about 60 you can't be hit my bodyweight in any market
[SPEAKER_03]: And get away with it, but just certainly can't be doing it in New York when you're Joey Gallo and that did not go well for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: And with which little or I remember seeing, you know, I'd watch some of his highlights and caught a few of his regular season games last year, but, you know, that started against the Red Sox.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was about eight shot out, 10 seconds.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: You just know, like, it was like second, third inning.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe it was at the end of the second.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he probably had like four keys already.
[SPEAKER_01]: You just knew you're, I'm like, we're not going to do anything off of him today.
[SPEAKER_01]: You could just die out.
[SPEAKER_01]: this guy's dialed in.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's locked in.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got his A stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, we're, it's gonna take a miracle.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're gonna have to scrap something together like the ugly win.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're gonna win this game.
[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously,
[SPEAKER_01]: didn't happen and we got shot out.
[SPEAKER_01]: But for a rookie to come in and to a big market and even bigger spotlight in the postseason, just doing this thing was super impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm definitely, I hate as a Red Sox fan, how much I like Kim Schlitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: I say I have the same thing but Ben Rice, I love a couple guys in the Yankees and it pains me, but I try to keep my bias out of it and I am definitely a big Kim Schlitter guy that I wasn't high enough.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, last year on, but now I'm definitely making it.
[SPEAKER_01]: This guy is getting me in that ace discussion, yet, but his trajectory could put him there, especially he keeps up doing what he's doing because everything is super impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: The whiff rates are there.
[SPEAKER_01]: The ground ball rates there.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we mentioned the lock rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Everything, he's checking up all those boxes right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's see if there's someone.
[SPEAKER_03]: if someone sells high-consider buying, you'll have to pay a premium, you'll have to pay a few more rounds than he was the draft cost, but if you need the pitching, I don't think he's going to fall off.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think we could see like a 320-ERA in a 110 or better whip the rest of the from today on from Schlittler and that would be huge.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and something I just saw, you know, the little fun thing on Savon, you know, the similar pictures based on Velo and movement, three of them are DeGrom burns 100 Browns.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's pretty fun trio there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's one more on here, we'll talk about a little bit later.
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, another Pittsburgh pirate arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll talk about a little bit later on in the episode.
[SPEAKER_01]: I won't give the name quite yet, but I want to go over to maybe the oldest name on this list.
[SPEAKER_01]: 30 year old Sandy Alcantra is he Paul is he back.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I know that the K rate is not super sexy, but it really never has been with him.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, dating back to, I think it was like what the final eight nine starts of last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was sub three ERA's two six seven ERA now.
[SPEAKER_01]: It looks like the Sandy of Olders back.
[SPEAKER_03]: Are you buying the 100% yes, and I was coming into the year because again, I feel like, you know, we saw full season from him last year and we saw a lot of the ups and downs that you get coming back from Tommy John, what I was mentioned in early that we didn't see from radish.
[SPEAKER_03]: We did see throughout a lot of Sandy season, especially that first half that was really didn't go well for him and
[SPEAKER_03]: Probably part of why he didn't get traded was maybe teams thought what are we really gonna get here Well, turns out they what I got in a pretty nice Picture down the stretch and a whole another year and maybe the marlins weren't trading.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, we all assumed that he was available But maybe they were saying hey, we know we have here.
[SPEAKER_03]: We want another full year of him and they're playing some pretty inspired ball of themselves And maybe they feel like that they can make a run at a wild card But the bottom line is I think Sandy is in fact back and I know the Tigers just cooked them, but hey when you go up against the best things happen
[SPEAKER_03]: For those that don't know, I'm a huge tiger spanner.
[SPEAKER_03]: I am meaming there a bit.
[SPEAKER_03]: I was surprised that they ripped seven on him.
[SPEAKER_03]: He they got three homers.
[SPEAKER_03]: He had no on a homer all year He did get wrecked there, but that even with that he has a 267 era, which tells you how good he had been before that folks He had allowed just two earned runs three total runs all year before that and he should have had back to back complete games I don't know if you saw that since Natty outing where he threw eight and a third got a couple runners on and you know for all the I gave some praise to my
[SPEAKER_03]: by the manager not to go out there and even give him a conversation there at 95 pitches at eight and a third to at least say, hey, where you at, how you do and you're my ace, if you look me, my eye and tell me you got it, cool, I think at least all my combo, even if you're not even going to be moved by it, just I think he's earned that.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know some of that, like,
[SPEAKER_03]: under those unwritten rule stuff.
[SPEAKER_03]: I push back on some of that too.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think this is one of those hokey things.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think this is, hey, when your ACEs is on the verge and still under a hundred pitches and hasn't exactly been beaten up this inning either because you can put on some runners, you give him a combo there, giving the opportunity to maybe get the CG, but you didn't even do that.
[SPEAKER_03]: So then he comes back in this Tiger's game.
[SPEAKER_03]: It didn't go out, but you know what?
[SPEAKER_03]: You know why he's an ACE and this is what ACEs do.
[SPEAKER_03]: Even when they get clocked, they still go six.
[SPEAKER_03]: I would say that absolutely yes and that's that's what I took away from that is that he's still went Six I know he gave him a few in the last inning there, but he got beat up early He got beat up late, but he still went six for you.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's what an ace does I I bought Sandy with full confidence in draft season and I would buy him now again I would pay I'd pay full freight in a trade if somebody wanted to move him because he could you know If the marlins again, I think they're playing some decent ball where they can stick around in this thing But let's say it goes sideways
[SPEAKER_03]: Then they are going to look to trade them this year because I think he'll be pitching well and it's the last year of his deal outside of the team option next year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Now I don't know how it works.
[SPEAKER_03]: If they trade him, does the new team still get that option or does that go away?
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know the details on that.
[SPEAKER_03]: But at 21 mill, if that's available to whoever trades for him, I don't see how he's not worth 21 mill next year as well, Sandy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah, that'd be a phenomenal precision in this market for Sandy and yeah, he just looks at that guy that we fell in love with, you know, a few years ago, and you're in a 2023 was kind of not great, but not terrible, and then you mentioned, you know, that kind of working in the way back from Tom and John last year, we saw the ups and downs, but in the fact that the the ups came
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of ops came late in the season and he cared that over into the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm 100% buying back in and he's always been that guy that's been a below average K rate guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he like strikeout percentage, you know, he's never going to be a one that's going to allow you.
[SPEAKER_01]: But after the year, he's always to be guy that gives you that volume and gives you 180 plus innings, gives you a probably 150, 160 strikeouts with some good ratios.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that Sandy is back.
[SPEAKER_01]: I did question last year, even when he finished strong.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, all right, yeah, that was great.
[SPEAKER_01]: But is the old Sandy ever coming back?
[SPEAKER_01]: But how we started this year?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, yeah, maybe you say his best years are behind him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not going to, you know, challenge for a sion, again, or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think you're still getting a, you know, a good S-P-2 value out of Sandy.
[SPEAKER_01]: You got, you can plug in it.
[SPEAKER_01]: there and forget about because he's just, just got to do his thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, definitely nice, nice to see Sandy back.
[SPEAKER_01]: I love watch the Sandy patch.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's one of my favorite arms to watch, just how he operates and
[SPEAKER_01]: attack setters is really fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: So good to see him back, but those are the two bigger names, but then we got four other pictures here that have kind of, and it may be not come out of nowhere, but I think their their starts are a little bit more surprising than a Schlittler or a Sandi R. First one here in Minnesota, Taj Bradley.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got that used to have, he had some hype a few years back,
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he had a pretty, you know, decent showing in 2024, especially under the hood, you know, a little more straight up per inning and then 25 kind of took a step back, really across the board, but first four starts this year, one, two, five, the array.
[SPEAKER_01]: eight, one, two, five whip, 29 strikeouts in 21 and the third inning is the 31% K rate to an eight and a half percent walk rate, which is kind of where he's always been, but missing more bats now than he ever has, especially last year, but a 10% jump in K rate this year to last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what are you thinking here with the Taj Bradley?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is this a guy that now he's still only 25?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is he finally realizing the potential that we thought he had a few years ago?
[SPEAKER_01]: Or is he
[SPEAKER_03]: No, I think I'm interested in this.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is a guy that I liked coming into the eye.
[SPEAKER_03]: I liked him his whole career.
[SPEAKER_03]: I've been a Taj guy from the jump.
[SPEAKER_03]: You mentioned that the skills, they were pretty darn good in 23 and 24.
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's what kept me buying in and saying, hey, you know, the talent is here.
[SPEAKER_03]: He needs to keep the ball in the park a bit more.
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, he didn't do that a little bit last year.
[SPEAKER_03]: It was still 1.2, but that was actually an improvement for him.
[SPEAKER_03]: I was like, we need to get that at one or below.
[SPEAKER_03]: So far, this year he hasn't allowed a Homer.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that will change folks.
[SPEAKER_03]: Don't worry.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think he's going to have a zero home or nine, but Tosh Bradley's been awesome this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the bottom line is, you know, I put in my bullet predictions.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I was like, this is a good picture.
[SPEAKER_03]: I really do believe that.
[SPEAKER_03]: We're talking about somebody who had under 400 endings coming into this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: at age 25.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's still an overall pretty small sample.
[SPEAKER_03]: I just don't think that the full book was written on who he is.
[SPEAKER_03]: Meanwhile, I also don't think that 22 innings of this year says that now he's a stud and he's emerged and that book is written either.
[SPEAKER_03]: But the bottom line is people that wanted to discard him and say, oh, he's washed.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's failed prospect.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think you were jumping too quickly there.
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, don't come all the way back 180 the other way and say, oh, I was wrong.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's perfect now.
[SPEAKER_03]: But say, hey, I got to take a deeper look at this because this guy has a lot of talent.
[SPEAKER_03]: The simple fact is he can miss bats.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's got nasty stuff.
[SPEAKER_03]: He works upper 90s.
[SPEAKER_03]: That is a foundation that succeeds in this league.
[SPEAKER_03]: And when you're striking out 31% which he's doing right now, if you can hold anything like that, that's game-changing.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I'll put him back down in the mid-20s, which is where he's been for his career.
[SPEAKER_03]: That works.
[SPEAKER_03]: Eight.
[SPEAKER_03]: eight nine ish percent walk rate anything sub ten that can play it's gonna come down to the home run suppression when the home and a five ball rate obviously regress is a bit where's that gonna come out and can he be a point nine one point no homer nine guy if so i think Taj Bradley's a sub four year a guy with a decent whip because with the walks maybe it won't be a great whip but with a tonic haze and then the winds will be a crapshoot yes three out of four so far because Minnesota is actually playing halfway decently which i don't think anybody really had
[SPEAKER_03]: That they'd be ten and seven.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think they have the best record in Base, yes, at ten and seven they are tied for the best record in baseball right now.
[SPEAKER_03]: Excuse me second best with a couple other teams the Dodgers at 12 and 4 so in the American league they're tied for the best record
[SPEAKER_03]: That's crazy early on.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think I'll keep putting out 75% wins in his starts, but if you can get to double digit wins, that's fine.
[SPEAKER_03]: Usually if I'm getting good ratios from a guy I drafted as late as Taj Bradley, I'll let the wins kind of fall where they will, but I do believe that this is a legitimately good picture.
[SPEAKER_03]: He'll have some absent flows.
[SPEAKER_03]: What I would be interested in is the first time he gets beat up and gives up, say, five, six, or, and runs.
[SPEAKER_03]: As long as it's not in one or two innings with four miles an hour off the wheel, let's just say it's a standard,
[SPEAKER_03]: Standard beat down that every every pitcher suffers a couple times a year if people jump off the train immediately on that I'll be there in scoop him up.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is not somebody that I'm immediately gonna run away from After one bad start.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's earned a little bit of leeway with me To the point where if I see Taj Bradley have a bumper to I'm gonna assess those before I instantly cut But I do think some people might be too quick to cut him if and when he does struggle.
[SPEAKER_03]: Now obviously he puts up ten great starts to start the season
[SPEAKER_03]: people will probably keep him, you know, well throughout his struggles.
[SPEAKER_03]: But if his next start is crummy and Cincinnati this week, will people jump off?
[SPEAKER_03]: They might, and I think that would be a mistake.
[SPEAKER_03]: See this through a bit.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think he's shown enough both this year so far and throughout his career to give him a little bit of leeway here for Tosh Bradley.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I couldn't agree more.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've always been to some varying level, a Taj Bradley guy, and when he was coming up, coming up through the Tampa Basics, and then over the Minnesota, I've always been a pretty good big fan of Bradley, because the stop was really good as you mentioned.
[SPEAKER_01]: He looked at four pitchmix.
[SPEAKER_01]: He ditched the sinker this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He used that about 9% last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's selling more force emers instead of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the force emers in 1967, splitter around 1991, upper 80s, cutter, low 80s, curve.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those last three, I'll have a wiff rate up 37%
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, this really good stuff here from Bradley.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, not this is not like a thing you always have to look at, but I just love the, the some more pictures on on Velo and move and just like a fun little thing to look at the five for him are sea's hundred brown yellow moto, raspacin and teleglas now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
[SPEAKER_03]: see that those those are great names to real good idea of what he can be and I think sees is kind of the perfect one which tells you that there's still some volatility to it right that it won't always be rosy but especially in roto where you don't really care about the day to day to day the week to week head to heads a little bit different right because when a guy has abs and flows he can be killing you one week and then winning the league for or winning the week for you the next week but I like I think that Dylan sees comp makes sense to me I think
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, another issue that I'm I'm pretty sure sees as as well as yeah, they can miss a lot of bats and they have a good with rates, but when they do get hit, oftentimes it's hard, and that's actually one of the issues with Bradley, this year average evil out is 94 miles an hour with a 46% hard hit rate, kind of where he was in his early part of his career too, giving up, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: quality of contact being not so rosy, you know, minor blip there and nothing, you know, huge red flag, but definitely, you know, a little bit of concern that when he does get hit, oftentimes it is hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, but I'm a big Bradley God and I think he definitely can maintain at least part of this and be a pretty impactful picture here for fantasy.
[SPEAKER_03]: Before we go on to our next guy, one thing I see with guys like Taj Bradley is when they have this this fast start, they're held at this standard the rest of the way.
[SPEAKER_03]: That shouldn't be the standard that he's held to.
[SPEAKER_03]: You drafted this guy very late even in 15 teamers.
[SPEAKER_03]: So basically, if he's giving you like a low-force ERA, a competent whip in a boatload of case, he's delivering for you.
[SPEAKER_03]: So he's got a lot of wiggle room here to still do that.
[SPEAKER_03]: Let alone the fact that there is, of course, upside.
[SPEAKER_03]: But he doesn't have to be a stud for you to be happy with what you're getting on a Taj Bradley.
[SPEAKER_03]: Who again was a late round pick, slash waiver pickup in damn near all formats.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yep, 100% and anybody that got him laid or picked them up, I mean, I picked them up in one league.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I drafted them in one other thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have two shares this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Very happy with that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I have the I have this next guy, too.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got the I definitely picked up.
[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't draft him.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think many dead and maybe some of the, you know, 15s are,
[SPEAKER_01]: or deeper did, but you know, 12 team leagues probably wasn't drafted and that's Emerson Hancock.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's a guy I put up this tweet earlier that there's five qualified pitchers in baseball right now that have a key rate above 30% and he's sub a 6% walker rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if I told you, yeah, one of those guys pitchers for the Seattle Mariners.
[SPEAKER_01]: You'd probably think, oh, it's a it's Logan Gilbert or it's Brian Wu.
[SPEAKER_03]: I guess Castillo before him.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, you know, Shane the him.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just not what Hancock does.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you would have gone to, yeah, then you would have gone to Castillo in it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Kirby, then no, it's Emerson Hancock, who is a 4.8% walk rate in a 30.6% key rate in just the other Ford's for reference, are Cam Schiller, Kevin Gospen, who's been balling Tyler Glass now and he's useless art.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was so no other surprises there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, maybe you could say it's a little bit of surprise, but you know, the other three guys have been around the block a time or two.
[SPEAKER_01]: We had an Emerson Hancock easily, the most surprising name out of those five, but he's been a stud and I think Seattle really needs him to be that.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's really stepped up in a big way.
[SPEAKER_01]: It kind of solidified a back end of that rotation and the accident three starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: But 204 ERA 0.74 whip, and already mentioned the the lock and strike at rate X ERA is right in line there.
[SPEAKER_01]: This guy that I loved Hancock coming out of the draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was 20 I think it was a 2020 draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: I loved him then and then kind of minor leagues didn't go quite as well as I thought I kind of sourd a little bit No, I was never like fully out on him, but now he's going to bounce him back to heights that I never even thought he could reach even when I was super high at him back when he was drafted out of Georgia, but
[SPEAKER_01]: not like the other guys like Bradley and she'll know they had some really good with rates he doesn't have a 30% with rate a 231% on the foreseamer 32% on the sweeper but the rest of his offerings not really you know getting a lot of whiffs there and it really goes that for
[SPEAKER_01]: or seemer and sweeper to get the strikeouts and the occasional sinker.
[SPEAKER_01]: But definitely a much different looking arm here than the other guys before we've already talked about.
[SPEAKER_01]: So absolutely.
[SPEAKER_03]: Because handcuffs not overpowering, like you said, there was 95, which is fine.
[SPEAKER_03]: But it's funny, by the way, I was watching the movie, The Rookie, have you ever seen that?
[SPEAKER_03]: You don't know what it is about the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, with Dennis Quaid.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, yeah, the Disney guy, the Jim Morris who, you know, makes it to the major whatever.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just funny.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just like a relic timepiece because he throws 98, you know, like, you know, how many guys do that?
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm like, yeah, hundreds, bro.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: But back then, he was one of very few.
[SPEAKER_03]: So it wasn't very notable that this high school teacher and coach was throwing 98.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just funny there.
[SPEAKER_03]: But, you know, 95 is kind of like that
[SPEAKER_03]: with Elite Command, and now this sweepers actually missing some bats for Hancock, because that was kind of the missing element, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: The Command's always been there.
[SPEAKER_03]: Command and Control has always been there for him that's been his calling card, but with some of the most poultry strike out rates that you've ever seen, 17% in 90 innings last year, you cannot succeed at the major level with a strikeout rate that low.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's really, really, really, really, really difficult with the ball and play that much, and then throwing the fact that he gave up too many
[SPEAKER_03]: So the fact that he has a bat missing sweeper right now is game changing because the walk rate is still excellent 5% like you mentioned and now he can miss a bat I don't think he's going to hold 31% frankly I'll give back 78% on that though if he's just in the load of mid 20s that works.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think 22 to 25%
[SPEAKER_03]: strikeout rate with the walk rates that Hancock can have, and the great home park protecting him in T-Mobile.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that's enough for success, let alone if he could somehow maintain 25% or above with the strikeout rate, then I really think we could see a huge step forward.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I'll take a small step forward because again, you picked up this guy, almost nobody drafted him.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you did, hat tip to you, especially once Bryce Miller got hurt, I definitely saw him being drafted in some spots.
[SPEAKER_03]: But mostly like DCs, which are 50 round drafts and holds and things like that, most people were kind of seeing wait and see with him and then he had that first outing, which I wasn't sold on that first outing because it was cold and frankly, you know, shutting down Cleveland doesn't do a whole lot for me.
[SPEAKER_03]: They're quality team, but they're more like the some of their parts, they're not like some blistering offense.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I was like, okay, let's see it again.
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, then he goes to the angels, which I know they're not a great team, but they've been a little bit more competent this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: They'll run you up a little bit, ask the Yankees pitchers what they've been doing, and he pitch very well there, and then Houston, for all of the troubles that Houston's having folks, don't let that make you think that their offense hasn't been amazing.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's six and 11, if they had any pitching, they might be 11 and six.
[SPEAKER_03]: Their offense has been one of the best in the league, and he threw pretty well against them.
[SPEAKER_03]: Five innings, three runs, five punches.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I like what Hancock's been doing here and I really think this is something you want to stick with for another good while.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know I keep saying the same thing here about give these guys a little bit runway, but don't jump off at the first sign of trouble.
[SPEAKER_03]: The first bad start, I don't think you should pull the ejector seat here with him.
[SPEAKER_03]: He gets trip to San Diego this week.
[SPEAKER_03]: In fact, I think he throws there tomorrow and then a two step with the angel of excuse me with the athletics coming to Seattle and then going to St. Louis.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's a great set up there.
[SPEAKER_03]: First off, you get the athletics out of Sacramento.
[SPEAKER_03]: And then anytime you can go to St. Louis, it's a good park to pitch in and that offense doesn't scare you.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know Jordan Walker's been hitting well JJ weather hold hit his second tonight.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that's some decent guys, but it's not an offense that you run from.
[SPEAKER_03]: Right.
[SPEAKER_03]: So hand cock
[SPEAKER_03]: a chance to put up three more nice starts here and I'm really eager to see where he comes out at the end of that.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is a guy that I'm sticking with though even through the first couple of bad starts.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not going to instantly pull the ejector.
[SPEAKER_03]: The question will be and I don't know what the latest is on him when Bryce Miller comes back what happens because nobody else is getting kicked out.
[SPEAKER_03]: They're kind of fighting for the spot at that point, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think they would probably go back to Bryce, but what do you know his status off the top of your head here?
[SPEAKER_03]: I can
[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't seen a lot of new news on him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think he's totally through a bolt on my way.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, it was it was just yesterday that we had yesterday sorry April 13th for anybody listening that is oblique he coming back from his oblique.
[SPEAKER_03]: through a good bullpin.
[SPEAKER_03]: But like you said, it's still gonna be a while.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think we're still gonna see enough time here to where we don't really have to worry about that yet.
[SPEAKER_03]: Let the talent figure it out.
[SPEAKER_03]: And if he gets another month runway here, and let's say we wake up in that month, mid-May here, and he's still toting, say, a three and a quarter ERA, a sub-1, 15 whip, and the strikeouts are still coming.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know that Hancock wouldn't keep his spot and they either go to some sort of like a bridge six man or even maybe put Miller in the bullpen through through no fault of his own admittedly but I don't know how you would take Hancock out if he keeps going for a month and a half into the season like this.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not like Miller was good last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I know he was great.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was great before that.
[SPEAKER_01]: We were drafted and was going to have to be too last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think was the area over five last year for Miller.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the truth, he's in better than Hancock, you know?
[SPEAKER_03]: Right.
[SPEAKER_03]: And he could be.
[SPEAKER_03]: The truth of the matter is, is that by that time, some other injury will probably crop up.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's just the nature of, I'm not trying to, you know, jinx any of the Mariners pictures.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's just the nature of pitching, though, folks.
[SPEAKER_03]: You give it a couple of weeks, and somebody else will probably get hurt, and it'll figure itself out.
[SPEAKER_03]: But the bottom line is don't try to time anything with handcock.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know sometimes people want to get a little bit too creative.
[SPEAKER_03]: Oh, I'm going to cut him here before Miller comes back because this, that and the other, let the team make the decision.
[SPEAKER_03]: And if they take him out of the rotation, then you can decide what you want to do.
[SPEAKER_03]: But while he's pitching well, I wouldn't kick him off my team at all.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I'm there with you, and I'm the out of these last four names, you know, him and you know, the two we haven't talked about yet, you know, along with the one we just did.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's the one that I'm probably the lowest on of the four, but at the same time, I like Hancock, it's weird that he's a different picture now because he had a really good change up back in in college and low minors, he barely even uses that anymore, he's definitely a different picture than he was a few years ago, which, yeah, not out of the ordinary for getting a picture of the change,
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, I just don't think the carate's gonna, you know, maintain anywhere 60% 30% right.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think what you said, you know, give back 70% give me 2324 because, you know, first two years the majors though it was not like a huge volume.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was well below average.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, this way down there just give me a league average carates like 22 23% and keep the ERA in the mid threes Yeah, I didn't give me a whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's like under 1.25 or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he could be you know I decent like you know not top 50, but maybe like a
[SPEAKER_01]: Top 60 70 arms something like that for fantasy.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'd like to see a pathway.
[SPEAKER_01]: He limits hard contact pretty well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, 20% hard hit rate allowed this year limits the walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: So hey, you limit, you know, the hard contact and the walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a pretty good recipe for success right there too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's going to take you a far and going to take you far and again, that team will ballpark is just a great place to pitch to 100%.
[SPEAKER_01]: Colorado, you know, chase the whole end or start, but still pretty, you know, that yeah, it's a good part of the pitch and for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, the maybe the biggest breakout so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think for a week's end, but what the heck has gotten into Jose, sorry, I know.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, if the season ended today, sorry, I know it was probably not just your AL,
[SPEAKER_01]: He's allowed one run in those four starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: 27 innings, one run allowed.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a 0.33 ERA, 0.67 whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: 31 strikeouts to nine walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, that is a 32% key rate and a 9% walkerate.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy that luckily I draft the super late.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was like that textbook, like, oh, yeah, this he has a little bit of upside that he'll take a shot at him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Late round guy, that's just paying off in spades right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: you look at a lot of the metrics looking pretty darn good right now and he's a guy that was pretty hard for Seamers 98, sinker 97 gets a lot of ground balls.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been above a 60% ground ball right each of the last three years including this year and then he can get the other waves on the knuckle curve and the splitter as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know mid 80s knuckle curve and a low 90s splitter both have a
[SPEAKER_01]: all of his pitches are 200 betting average against our lower.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got at least five k's on four different pitches.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he can really go to any of those pitches in any count against ratings and lefties.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of good here, I'm not going to say he's, you know, this stick is a as an ace or anything here, Paul, but I mean, there's not a lot under the hood, but you can be like, oh, yeah, well, he's got a request there.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's pretty good everywhere right now.
[SPEAKER_03]: it really is you know i've had an affliction the last several years uh... with a weakness for angels pictures for them you're no upside there but every year there's a few that i'd like soary on was been up there starting on debt must have been carrying the torch patrick sand of all when he was healthy and i fell for griffin canning a few times too but like it
[SPEAKER_03]: Seriously, like every year, I'm like, why do I like these freaking angels pictures so much?
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, the year it finally pays off as the year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't have a bunch of him.
[SPEAKER_03]: I didn't get a ton of Jose Soriano, but I wasn't completely out on him or debt mers for one major reason.
[SPEAKER_03]: Mike Maddox came to town, one of the more renowned pitching coaches in the league, and I was just eager by that.
[SPEAKER_03]: And by the fact that neither of them cost much debt mers nor Soriano and a competent pitching coach,
[SPEAKER_03]: can you do something with their talent because they both have a lot of raw arm talent can he can he mold it into something so far the early returns on Soriano are amazing and what's really helped is you know you already had the 100 mile an hour sinkers he's one of these guys you know very giftable because he's got nasty nasty stuff
[SPEAKER_03]: But nothing really came of it because, you know, he wasn't missing as many bats as I certainly thought he should and could.
[SPEAKER_03]: He could keep the ball in the park, which always kind of gave him at least a decent ERA, but he had a 140 whip blaster and you just can't put that on a roster in any league.
[SPEAKER_03]: So then always this morning, it comes in this here and what does he do?
[SPEAKER_03]: He greatly improves his location.
[SPEAKER_03]: Going back to a stat I mentioned earlier, location plus league averages a hundred, he was at 102 last year.
[SPEAKER_03]: So basically average, a couple of clicks above,
[SPEAKER_03]: He's at 113 this year without losing any bit off of his stuff.
[SPEAKER_03]: In fact, it's a little bit better going from 103 stuff plus to 104.
[SPEAKER_03]: So the fact that he's locating so much better this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: And this is why location plus doesn't automatically equal walks.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's only approved his walk rate from 11 to 9.
[SPEAKER_03]: which is an improvement by the way, I shouldn't say only, but he hasn't like transformed it to a hand cocky and level of 4%.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's still 9% which is a little bit high, but that's our location is.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's still putting the ball away, you want it, and getting the results that you want, even if you are still walking some guys.
[SPEAKER_03]: So his nasty stuff is very difficult to square up.
[SPEAKER_03]: We already knew getting Homer's off-hostly Soriano was remarkably difficult.
[SPEAKER_03]: Now he's running a 143 babbabb, that will not hold, but
[SPEAKER_03]: I do believe that he can be under 300 under the league average there, and that paired with the new swing and miss that we're seeing as well, 32% K rate, 13% swing strike, has me believing quite a bit in this.
[SPEAKER_03]: And again, you have to ask, okay, what is believing me?
[SPEAKER_03]: So then I'll put some numbers to it.
[SPEAKER_03]: From here forward, I think Sorion from today on, you know, because you already got what you got, or if you're trading for him, you won't get any of those 20, 70s.
[SPEAKER_03]: Put me down for like a three and a half year a and a sub one twenty whip.
[SPEAKER_03]: Now that's not I popping the amazing but it's a hell a lot better than what you paid for.
[SPEAKER_03]: He was not an expensive draft pick at any point in the in the in the draft season.
[SPEAKER_03]: So again.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like I was saying with Hancock, don't hold Sory on or to the standard that he's setting here with a 0.33 ERA in a 0.67.
[SPEAKER_03]: Nobody can hold that, not even the 92-innings season of DeGrom, even he had better higher numbers than that.
[SPEAKER_03]: Hold him to a standard of, you know, in 18th, 19th, 20th round pick that he was, and I guess said if you can do 3.5 ERA in a sub-120 whip with a bunch of k's, I'll take that.
[SPEAKER_03]: And this offense for the angels has been not terrible.
[SPEAKER_03]: I know that's you know kind of damning with fake praise But they've been they've been competent.
[SPEAKER_03]: Trout's healthy.
[SPEAKER_03]: They got a few other guys swinging it So I think there'll be some wins two is four and oh so far again.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's not gonna keep up that rate But I don't think he'll be completely devoid of wins either with Soriano This is another guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think I would buy high on because while you'll have to pay more than his draft cost
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think people are going to charge you too crazy.
[SPEAKER_03]: I really think you can still get him at a pretty fair price that's maybe four, five, six rounds higher than what you paid.
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's not that's not bad.
[SPEAKER_03]: That means you're paying like a 12th round type player, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 100% Before I get into him though.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you just have the the word of the episode hand cocky in Is a phenomenal word there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I friggin love that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was I was love how when you when you said that you were into a Griffith canning your voice got like a little lower like it was like your next shit.
[SPEAKER_03]: I want to admit it, but I had you know I had I got to be honest
[SPEAKER_01]: We all have our business, you know, everyone, I'm going to be linked to Jared County until I'm, you know, you ingest in both, you ingest in both big, big fans of him.
[SPEAKER_03]: So, hey, again, yeah, like you said, we all have players like that.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you, if you don't have any big misses, either you're not playing your flag or on anybody or you're just lying, I'm saying, and that's usually the latter, because they know somebody hitting 100% in this game.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just, it's impossible.
[SPEAKER_03]: The best scouts in the world don't come close to 100%.
[SPEAKER_03]: How can us fantasy tweets purport to do that?
[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly, no, 100%.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, out of these last four names, you know, the non-slitler sanding names, Seriano is the one on the highest on.
[SPEAKER_01]: And luckily, I had to share two thankfully.
[SPEAKER_01]: And another chair that I got just picking him up, oh, let me, let me stream him here and like, oh, he did a well, let me hold on to him.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now, thankfully, I did because, you know, this stuff, you know, as you mentioned, it's just nasty.
[SPEAKER_01]: Everything is hard with Sorrio.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even as Neckle Curve 86, that's very hard for a
[SPEAKER_01]: And just looking at these to the movement profiles and where he locates these five pitches.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he'll throw that foreseamer up in the zone, run the sinker down in and you get the knuckle curve going this way.
[SPEAKER_01]: You get the splitter going that way.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got more of a gyro slider.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a really hard mix of
[SPEAKER_01]: angles and movement to really, like you said, it's hard to square up, hoses Haryano, especially when you get that sinker bearing down in the on your shins.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you make contact, it's just go right into the ground.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, what's what's the launch angle allowed on his sinker?
[SPEAKER_01]: It is.
[SPEAKER_01]: two degrees.
[SPEAKER_01]: That sounds like right.
[SPEAKER_03]: And this transformation is why people kept drafting dust in May, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, because almost down to the similar vibes of a hundred mile an hour sinkers that were tough to square up.
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, obviously it hasn't come to fruition and I don't think he is going to transform.
[SPEAKER_03]: But that's why you keep taking that shot.
[SPEAKER_03]: And Soriano hit has hit and I would feel vindicated even though you didn't, you know,
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, you don't count his stats just because you drafted me, but I understood why people would stick with me.
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe not this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it was pretty easy to be off from this year, but those years with the Dodgers my people kept going back, it's because they saw this.
[SPEAKER_03]: They thought maybe he could be this sort of guy here who kind of figures it out with the nasty raw stuff.
[SPEAKER_03]: Soriano has so far and again, I have, I have some belief in it.
[SPEAKER_03]: In Mike Maddox, I trust.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, 100%.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was a big dust of me, I was kind of hard not to be, especially when we live on Twitter, we see all these gifts from pitching in Joe or Nick Pollock or whoever like, yep, this guy is absolutely filthy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, I don't actually been able to harness it, though.
[SPEAKER_01]: It may never can harness it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still think that five years.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's exactly what I was going to reference to 2021.
[SPEAKER_03]: I still am going to want what if that year for the rest of my life, though, because he got hurt under some
[SPEAKER_03]: and I just wonder if that could have been his launching pad because he was doing everything we wanted.
[SPEAKER_03]: It was basically like this, start we've seen from sorry, I don't know, 38% K rate, 7% walk, 14% swing strike.
[SPEAKER_03]: It was everything we wanted from me.
[SPEAKER_03]: And then he got hurt and he's never come close to it since.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm right.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was thrown.
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember that off season.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like to throw the curve ball more and he was and then it was just you have five starts and he hasn't even sniffed that sense then.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 100% he was he was a super super fun arm and yeah, now he's just kind of.
[SPEAKER_01]: But basically, the Travis most of the St. Louis rotation at this point, but, you know, with sorry, I know, when you said that the stuff is really good, he's figured out how to harness it, he's allowing, you know, a lot less hard contact, which was kind of his bugaboo in previous years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, even last year, 48% hard hit rate allowed, that's, that's not the 33% this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And maybe that stabilizes a bit, but, you know, I think he's doing a much better job of really using his stuff and not just throwing it, if that makes sense.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, kind of, you know, the throw or not a pitch or pitch, you're not a throw type of thing, but with really good stuff at the same time.
[SPEAKER_01]: So like say everything's hard with him, you know, 90 and half mile an hour slider, 93 mile an hour splitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's everything that's built with him.
[SPEAKER_01]: 43% we're right in the splitter, 47% on that knuckle curve.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, a lot of good here.
[SPEAKER_01]: 61% ground ball rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, everything's good.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I am.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not saying is an eggs, but yeah, I'm definitely very much buying into Jose Soriano.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now the last name here, which is the other Pittsburgh pirate name that I kind of alluded to about 25 minutes ago or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Braxton Ashcraft.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was a really, really good through his first three outings.
[SPEAKER_01]: In 17 innings, 212 ERA.
[SPEAKER_01]: Whip is one on the nose, X ERA right there as well, 2.20.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's got 20 strikeouts for a 30.3% strikeout rate in a 7.6% walk rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this guy that had a little bit of hype entering this year, too.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was kind of like a trendy later round pick because, you know, last year between, you know, mostly in the bullpen, got some starts as well, get a 271 ERA in the 69 and 2 thirds innings over a caper inning, 1, 2, 5 whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the guy that has got really good stuff throws hard, you know, 96, 97, both the foreseamer and the sinker with him as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: 90 one-man-hour slider, 90-man-hour splitter, another guy that just throws really, really hard and has a pretty good stuff here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what do you think here on Braxton Ashcraft?
[SPEAKER_03]: been really encouraged, or what we've been seeing from Ashcraft.
[SPEAKER_03]: Definitely somebody who I thought had value didn't end up landing on him, not because you're out, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: That's the tough part.
[SPEAKER_03]: Sometimes you can't get everybody.
[SPEAKER_03]: And so you can be like, hey, I totally like that guy, but I was drafted in this guy when he was coming around.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's kind of how it ended up with Ashcraft.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'd see him on my board.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm like, okay, I could take him next round, but oh, this favor to mine is here.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I'm going to take this guy first and then he would go.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I love what we've seen so far
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: Chandler was the one I thought could take the big step because he was, you know, he's the big pedigree prospect.
[SPEAKER_03]: We thought he could be the robin to skins as Batman, but it's looking like Ashcraft, and maybe even Carmen Maginski by the way, who's pitching pretty well.
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe they could rise up cover Chandler a little bit while he figures things out as we talked about earlier.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's still a raw product.
[SPEAKER_03]: But what I really love from Ashcrack is he doesn't have that same issue with Chandler.
[SPEAKER_03]: He knows where the ball's going and so he's not putting himself in these sticky situations.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's somebody that can actually get some endings out of because he doesn't walk guys.
[SPEAKER_03]: And now we're starting to see some more strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know if the 30% is going to hold if he has enough stuff to be that kind of guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, you give me 24-25% with a 7% or better walk rate and a great home park in PNC, and that works.
[SPEAKER_03]: I love ground ball guys who start to find some swinging miss in their game.
[SPEAKER_03]: You don't have to be the 30% guy when you're getting 50% ground balls.
[SPEAKER_03]: So yes, I think Ashcraft has some staying power here too and I'm definitely going to see this through another guy where that first sign of trouble that first bad start or even two doesn't automatically take me off of him.
[SPEAKER_03]: I want to kind of see this out and I really like his setup coming up here.
[SPEAKER_03]: He gets Washington later this week and then a trip to Texas, which is always a good place to pitch and I really think he has a chance to get the ball rolling here to the point where again, you maybe don't
[SPEAKER_03]: automatically start him every time in a 10 teamer, but he's what I call a team streamer, which means when you're not using him, you just reserve him.
[SPEAKER_03]: You don't cut the guy because you don't want somebody else to get a chance at picking him up.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I really like what we've seen from Ashcraft, and I agree with you, I think there's some staying power here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, absolutely agree.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's better than League Average in getting ground balls and getting chase outside the zone is 32% chase rate 29% with race.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a better than League Average there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just really above the average everywhere to start the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, it's only three starts, but
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, God, that's always kept the walk rate in check for the most part.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think you can be in above average K rate guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree, not like a 30% guy, but I think you can see like 26, 27%, you know, being like 44% better than the average.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll give you some solid ratio.
[SPEAKER_01]: Give me 35 with a 1, 2, whip or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Especially what he doesn't have to be the dude in the schemes is a dude and this he could be to be the number four number five guy given all the talent they have I mean look at obviously the idea of schemes you know with him in the mix here jerry jones coming back at some point you know if about a channel or merges to be what we think he can they also have set their nandesers
[SPEAKER_03]: phenomenal pitching probably caught in the mind of leagues and then you know count what I'm a chiske so it's like Pittsburgh they're going to mess up somehow we know they are fortunately sorry but they really are doing some good things yeah they brought Connor up you know I guess it was just to work the deal out because obviously he didn't need that week at AAA that was
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it was clearly just they were working out the deal, which, okay, that's fine, I guess.
[SPEAKER_03]: They wanted to debut on that home, okay, whatever.
[SPEAKER_03]: But the moves they made with low and low hurt, and I really liked both of those moves.
[SPEAKER_03]: Couple big lefties, OZuna, look, OZuna has the off-the-field stuff that I understand.
[SPEAKER_03]: People have an issue with, right here, the domestic violence he and his wife are awful.
[SPEAKER_03]: Do each other, like, and I'm not saying that, the two each other thing to take any heat off of him, but like, awful behavior there with Atlanta.
[SPEAKER_03]: but he has moved forward from it in terms of like he's now seems like a team leader which I have a weird disconnect with that right because you know you see what a guy does off the field they're like what do you mean he's a team leader but that's what's happening right now with this Pittsburgh team and hey you got to maybe leave some space for some guys to grow and
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know enough to say like if he's grown from that or not, I'm always going to kind of judge and do those kind of DV charge, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm sorry.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's just who I am.
[SPEAKER_03]: But that's another 30 bombs that they might have added too.
[SPEAKER_03]: So they might have added what?
[SPEAKER_03]: 75 to 80 bombs there between Brandon Lau.
[SPEAKER_03]: right on her and Marcelo Zuna.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like this is for an offense that, you know, needed juice.
[SPEAKER_03]: They had nothing, man.
[SPEAKER_03]: And O'Neill Cruz for his bad is his opening day went and he deserved the heat he got.
[SPEAKER_03]: That was that was some horrible play in center field.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's still not terribly good.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I think that that stink from opening day and those first couple plays.
[SPEAKER_03]: has just put this like black cloud over O'Neill cruise to the point where people are not understanding that they have five homers, seven steels, and a 1074 OPS.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's been out of his mind at the dish.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's hitting lefties like crazy.
[SPEAKER_03]: Pittsburgh has something going here and it is really, really interesting to see where it goes.
[SPEAKER_03]: You mentioned they're pitching depth.
[SPEAKER_03]: Mitch Keller's like they're five.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think he's all that special but he doesn't have to be like that's a nice place to be when you can get a guy that He pretty much guaranteed six every time out.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I don't think he pitched terrible well against Washington tonight, which is Kind of Mitch Keller's like when he gets an easy match up, of course.
[SPEAKER_03]: He fumbles it, but
[SPEAKER_03]: The bottom line is he's been around the block of bunch.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's got three straight full, four straight full seasons, 30 plus starts.
[SPEAKER_03]: And that is super valuable guy that can just go out and give you five, six, damn near every time out.
[SPEAKER_03]: And he's not even anywhere close to their top dog.
[SPEAKER_03]: And everything that they have surrounding it.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know, I picked them as a, as a sleeper playoff pick this here.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that they can get there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, they're definitely on that upward trajectory.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if Griffith turns into what, you know, everyone thinks he can be a superstar player, you know, Cruz, he was like a 55, 75 pace or something ridiculous.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, actually, I love that last signing as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was phenomenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's been really good to start.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Reynolds is gonna still be decent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, they're definitely building something here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if that pitching, if that comes to fruition, they could have one of the best
[SPEAKER_01]: in all of baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm rooting for them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want the pirates to be good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the fans of Pittsburgh, they're very loyal.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's beautiful ballpark.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what I was going to say.
[SPEAKER_03]: Great park, great fans.
[SPEAKER_03]: They will show out when the product is there.
[SPEAKER_03]: Like I don't think, you know, you can expect fans to keep showing up to watch 100 plus lost teams.
[SPEAKER_03]: But you put an actual talent out there.
[SPEAKER_03]: They're going to show up to that beautiful park.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that place is going to be buzzing while they're playing well in there.
[SPEAKER_03]: They are
[SPEAKER_03]: Actually, I think 10 and 7.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think they are losing tonight.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if they're game is over But the bottom line is they're playing well on Pittsburgh and Ashcraft's the nice piece of that Yeah, no 100% That's gonna wrap us up though a lot of what a fun name's here What of early season break notes?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll see how many of them you know maintain it how many fall off?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean probably a mixture of both but Paul is always a pleasure talking to you Yeah, I love getting your your insight especially on pitching, but uh, you know, what do you got going on right now?
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, Eric, thank you so much for having me on.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's always great chat.
[SPEAKER_03]: And with you, I have my daily SP chart Monday through Friday over at FanGrafts.
[SPEAKER_03]: It is Rotographs, but it's not Rotographs.com.
[SPEAKER_03]: So just go to FanGrafts and you can get it there.
[SPEAKER_03]: And if you ever have questions on somebody, I don't write up everybody every day, especially like the aces.
[SPEAKER_03]: You don't need me to tell you to start Brian Wu, but I'm always active in the comments as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: I also run the perfect team content for out of the park baseball.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a baseball simulator video game.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's right in line with where fantasy nerds are with baseball.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the perfect team game covers all of baseball history.
[SPEAKER_03]: You collect virtual cards and create your team.
[SPEAKER_03]: You compare Negro League players with Babe Ruth with...
[SPEAKER_03]: Today's players, the only player I can't get you is Barry Barnes.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm sorry, he doesn't allow his licensing to any video game.
[SPEAKER_03]: So we don't have Barry, but nobody does.
[SPEAKER_03]: But we got damn near everybody else.
[SPEAKER_03]: And so check out Perfect Team on out of the park baseball.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a lot of fun.
[SPEAKER_03]: And again, if you play fantasy, obviously you do listen to this.
[SPEAKER_03]: Chances are you're going to like out of the park baseball too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Great stuff as always.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, on Twitter at Spore, SPO, RER, when obviously be following Paul and other great work he does.
[SPEAKER_01]: phenomenal podcast and I'll be back with you all again later on this week but until then everyone take care