[SPEAKER_02]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_02]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's up everyone?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the toolshed podcast brought to you by Rotobar.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 446.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the show is at Toolshed Pod.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have a great episode in store for y'all in this one.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have a great guest with me to talk some early season hitting Notables both good and bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: I already off to a pretty crazy start of the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: My guest is a host producer and writer for fan graphs, fantasy prose and FTN, the member of the sleeper in the bus podcast, which won the best baseball podcast in 2025 by the F.S.W.A.
[SPEAKER_01]: Congrats at Joe or Rico 99 on Twitter, Mr. Joe or Rico.
[SPEAKER_01]: How's it going, Joe?
[SPEAKER_00]: it's going fantastic air.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's great to chat with you man.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we've known each other a long time.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was still half expecting in my head to hear Eric cross zero four.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's where he still defaults to.
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, it's great to be on sleep in the bus with those guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: I can't take a ton of credit.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that goes to Paul and to Justin who do
[SPEAKER_00]: a crazy amount of work on that show and they've been doing it for a decade plus at this point going back to when they took it over from Eno.
[SPEAKER_00]: So for Jason and Collette and myself, we're very happy to contribute the Paul and Justin take.
[SPEAKER_00]: Take the lie and share the credit, but I will of course be throwing it on my resume and on the list.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: As you should, you know, one of the obviously one of the best podcasts out there and been that way for a long time and yet Justin and Paul, I think one of my favorite just like,
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, combinations of people like my favorite duo in the industry because I think I don't have I told this story on here, but it was a few F passes ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: We were doing a draft and they had us in like there's a horseshoe kind of table set up where we had one through 15 that we were sitting in draft order.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was a Nepal who had like done no rankings yet.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was like, you know, obviously early November.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was using Justin's rankings who was the same same side as us,
[SPEAKER_01]: Paul and I were like 10 to 11 or whatever it was and he was looking for an outfielder Paul was looking at Justin's paper rankings and I forget which player it was but there's some player that Mason had like way high and Paul looks out and like are you stupid right down the table like blurts it out like it was just a whole later I love those two.
[SPEAKER_00]: I love how non-PC we are on the show and we will yell out things like that like a lot of the time You know with podcast it's a lot of agreeing and a lot of vascissing to some extent Justin will be like you got to be the stupidest person Yeah, it'll only that type of banter back in you know sometimes I'm just sitting there for like 10 minutes It's like a tennis match sometimes with these two co add each other and it's pretty fun to just sit and and shut my mouth and observe those two go at it for a while
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just sit back and take it all in and be entertained.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, they are definitely good for that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: God, early season.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, bird boat, what, two-ish weeks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, a little over two weeks into the season now.
[SPEAKER_01]: We already got some breakouts starting to happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: We got some a lot of hot players.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of big-name players off the cold start.
[SPEAKER_01]: So kind of.
[SPEAKER_01]: do a handful of each of these guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we'll start though with a little bit of strategy here because, you know, Joe, I'm sure you get these questions, just like I do on Twitter, you know, should I cut this player, you know, should I, you know, trade away this player, like all the early over reactions.
[SPEAKER_01]: And generally I say, you know, if it's a guy, you know, drafted like top 150 or something like that, you're like a cut, but we can happen to the season unless there's a major injury.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, how do you kind of balance all the early season stuff?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because obviously, we're only, you know, what 11, 12 games into the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: We got like 40-ish played appearances for most of these guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a very small sample size, but you know, we have to react some way.
[SPEAKER_01]: So how do you, you know, how do you approach all these early season metrics and stats, and kind of what do you look for when you're coming to your own conclusion here on, you know, should I react to this play?
[SPEAKER_01]: error or should I kind of hit the pause button.
[SPEAKER_00]: By and large, however you felt about a player two weeks ago when you drafted him, it's still how you should feel about them today.
[SPEAKER_00]: But for the most part, there are going to be examples of players, specifically pitchers where it's easy to pinpoint all the velocity is way, way down.
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't have the stuff that they used to have.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can tell a little bit quicker with pitchers when to move on.
[SPEAKER_00]: But generally speaking, the sample size is not large enough for me to draw anything.
[SPEAKER_00]: You have to act now if the Jordan walkers of the world, if you didn't pick them up a week ago, then they're gone.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know how much I want to put stock into pretty much anybody at this point, like you mentioned, we have such a small sample size.
[SPEAKER_00]: The biggest plate appearance sample size of anybody at the time of recording is Aknetto with 60 plate appearances.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you looked at 60 plate appearances that happened in July or August,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you isolated any 60 plate appearance sample doesn't mean a heck of a lot and it probably means less when you're talking about the beginning of the season when these guys are still rusty some of them are coming off the WBC and we've seen a lot of guys specifically mariners were the WBC have all struggled so there's a lot of variables this time of year that I think will stabilize as we have a bigger sample size.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't like to overreact a ton that being said, you know, the last three to five rounds of picks that you made those are more speculative picks anyway, so I'm willing to move on from those last few guys to pick up a guy where I think there has been a tangible change with the caveat being that maybe those numbers referred back next week, but the things that I tend to look at it usually comes down to play discipline whether we're talking about a hitter or a pitcher.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll take Joey Cantillo, for example, who's just the name that I had opened on fan graphs on the page that I clicked to.
[SPEAKER_00]: Are they getting as many chases as they did last year?
[SPEAKER_00]: Look at the Oswing.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm looking at the zone contact and the inzone contact.
[SPEAKER_00]: What kind of contact or batter is making against them on pitches in the zone?
[SPEAKER_00]: Are they getting swings and misses?
[SPEAKER_00]: The swings strike rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: is a huge thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: Also, the CSW percentage.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are probably the main ones in terms of plate discipline.
[SPEAKER_00]: Are they getting chases?
[SPEAKER_00]: What's the zone contact look like?
[SPEAKER_00]: The swing strike rate in the called strikes plus whiffs?
[SPEAKER_00]: To go along with stuff and stuff, I know is kind of, you know, some people think it's taboo.
[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't mean anything.
[SPEAKER_00]: I more leaning towards it's a tool in your tool belt not to be all in end all, but to something else that you look at.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if a picture has a massive increase in stuff, whether it be on one pitch or their entire arsenal,
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe not after one start, but after two or three starts if those numbers maintain, then I start to see them as more real.
[SPEAKER_00]: So with pictures, if you've seen two or three really, really good starts from somebody say, uh, Jose Soriano, a Kyle Harris, and you can start to believe a little bit more.
[SPEAKER_00]: With the hitters, I like a little bit of a larger sample size as if possible.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think pitching is easier to see stuff pretty early on like so even like in the minor league Like you go to a minor league game and you say, oh, like that guy's got that guy's awesome on a mountain You know hitting it takes you maybe a couple series, you know six seven games to get a good idea of a hit or but yeah For me like the general rule of thumb is especially for for bigger name players that are struggling the longer the track record the longer the leash I give them
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, if they're coming out like one year, I don't know, Trent Grisham's first time comes to my mind, like Grisham was kind of terrible that he was great last year and then he's off to a slow start.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, all right, I might not give him as long of a leash as like, I don't know, like a fruity Freeman or someone like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So guys that you know, like, all right, they've been here, they've done this many, many times, you know, they're probably gonna step out of it at some point.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, it's really hard to, you know, kind of not overreact a lot of these things.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we've got to remember, like you said, you know, 60 played appearances or less for all these guys so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're only one, but one 15th of the way through a season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So like we're like 7% into the season or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're still 148, 149 games, luck to be played.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just really, you know, slumping at the beginning of the season gets put more.
[SPEAKER_01]: kind of on a pedestal, then if these guys are slumping in June or August, like you have a 12 game stretcher, you're hitting a buck 50 in August, all right, yeah, you'll note people will notice it, but they won't freak out, maybe the average goes from 272 to 264 something like that, but right now it's like, oh, they're hitting a buck 50, you know, 12 games in.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: I think if you remember that, you know, what time of year it is and, you know, you mentioned a lot of these guys, there's a lot of WBC hangover for sure and like you mentioned Seattle, who are a couple of names will we'll start with here in a second, Seattle as a team is still hitting 14 right now, which is insane.
[SPEAKER_01]: The next lowest is the angels at 201.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, they're the only team under 200 right now, like basically all of their hitters are struggling.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're never going to talk about two of them, but, you know, J. Rod, after another slow start, I mean,
[SPEAKER_01]: Imagine if he could just put together a full year and knock it off to slow start.
[SPEAKER_01]: That would be phenomenal, but yeah, the two names though for the Seattle that we're start with here Josh Nailer and Cal Rally a little mini segment.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm calling sucking and Seattle because I want to go with hitless and Seattle, but I know these guys are just flat out sucking right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're both terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I feel like with both these guys, I mean, both are coming off just phenomenal years in in different ways.
[SPEAKER_01]: Josh Nailer, you know, randomly stole 30 back last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like him and Soto, I'm not sure what got into them last year, but, you know, 20, 30 year for Josh Nailer hit 25.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then Kaurali obviously, 60 home runs as a catcher is absolutely phenomenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like many people expected some sort of regression.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, that's fair, it's fair to say, given what they did and kind of
[SPEAKER_01]: absolutely zero so far for the most part.
[SPEAKER_01]: Carol always got one home run hitting 143, 236, 245 in 55 played appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: Nail are still waiting for his first home run.
[SPEAKER_01]: His first steal is first run score.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a lot of goose eggs there and a 104, 173, 104 slash lines.
[SPEAKER_01]: So zero extra bass hits is first 52 played appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: So
[SPEAKER_01]: with nailer, with rawly, you know, are you concerned about either of these two guys or, you know, they're both veterans, are you, are you kind of thinking that they're just gonna snap out of it at some point here?
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm a little bit worried with both of them and I do wonder how much that WBC impact had because Julio and other mariner he's always off to a slow start but it seems particularly bad this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I wonder if teams will be a little bit more hesitant than next time around to let their top guys go if we continue to see this hangover last more into the season.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm a little bit worried about both of them.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe more so roly and I have zero shares of roly I just
[SPEAKER_00]: I like to take early catchers, but not quite this early, not quite into the second round in a two.
[SPEAKER_00]: In a one catcher league, I'll punt it all the way to the end and give me Herrera or Kirk or whoever at the end, Ruchman, whoever it was this year in one catcher leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: In two catcher leagues, I wasn't paying the premium on Raleigh.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I don't expect this to continue this particular stretch, but we are seeing the absolute downside of this type of profile for a guy that is a massive powerheader who does struggle with contact, who maybe chases a little bit more than we'd like.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing a 67% zone contact when 85% is average.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was only at 81 last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was already below average contact rate in the zone last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's got even worse.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was at a 15% swing strike rate last year, which is incredibly high and that's
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not hitting the ball hard when he does make contact, which is few and far between at this point, but a 7% barrel rate in a 21% heart hit rate is awful.
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think that Cal Rally will turn around.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the power inside of him is just too great for this to not eventually turn itself around.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you look at the rest of season projections on fan graphs, 32 homers, 33, 38, 37.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that worst case scenario, you get a 20, 23 or 20, 24 season from him where he gives you about, you know, 25 to 30 home run floor, or he's giving you about 80 runs and ribbies and he's probably not helping you out of time in the batting average department, likely reverting back to 23 and 24.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of where I'm at with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: With Josh Nailer, it's a little bit different.
[SPEAKER_00]: The concern is, it's a different type of concern, because Nailer doesn't have the one super strong fantasy carrying tool.
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't have a ton of power.
[SPEAKER_00]: His barrel rates top out about 8% of his career.
[SPEAKER_00]: The speed was nice last year, but this is not a quick individual.
[SPEAKER_00]: And while the batting average that people are probably seeing into their phones or their cars right now, the batting average is the carrying tool.
[SPEAKER_00]: He had 243 in 2024, so it's not something you can just bank on every year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And when there are those players where you have to kind of, you know, Frankenstein the stats together and say he has a 30 home run season.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a 300 batting average season.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a 30 stolen base season.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you put that all together.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a first round player.
[SPEAKER_00]: But there are also a lot of flaws in Josh Nailer and one thing that hasn't been talked about a time.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was playing for a contract last year down the stretch and when you are playing for a contract you're going to do those extra little things, you're going to stay in the line up when you're extra banged up, you're going to try and make yourself more valuable and you're going to try and make it so that the end of season stat sheet is more appealing and what's something that you can do, you can still base this.
[SPEAKER_00]: And Josh Nailer, God bless of 19 steals and 54 games as a mayor in our last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was on a 60-steel pace.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just was so unsustainable but I think part of it was just going for that contract and not to say that he's not trying
[SPEAKER_00]: But you are going to see players generally in year one of a new deal not perform the same way they did the year they were playing for that contract and there might be some of that this year with nailer
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no we we've seen that a lot and yeah, it was really easy to say with the nail or a guy at a steal's there to go back down.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was ever like a zero in the soul based department.
[SPEAKER_01]: He'd give you like, you know, six, seven, eight.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was give you a little bit from the last where he had six and twenty, twenty, four, but yeah, 30 last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: We knew that was going down.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, what if someone told you before the season, like, hey, Josh Nail or in one soda or a guy combined for nearly seventy steels, like you would think
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, what they were like, I feel like 20-hundred bat if I think is, I mean, that's what he was last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's what he kind of profiles as like, it's a, you know, slightly above average power.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you mentioned doesn't really stand up.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not plus power or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, he's always hit the ball at pretty decent angles.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it gets to that pull area, which is down the,
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's still early, but you know under the hood, I mean, he's still, you know, kind of the same guy the context goes have gone down a little bit this year, but yeah, those usually take a little bit longer to stabilize some, you know, you know, bringing the alarm on that, he's always been a guy that chases a lot to and, you know, he's these high chase rate guys are often prone to, you know, some peaks and valleys more so than other players.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm not, I'm not terribly worried about either one.
[SPEAKER_01]: I am a little bit worried about both.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't have any chairs of either.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like you, I don't I love catchers.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm actually becoming kind of a catcher guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I love all these young catchers We have now, but yeah, I was more so drafted, you know, the Drake Baldwin's of the world You know the Augustine Ramirez is the world as opposed to going Second round on Cal Raleigh.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's the highest.
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember a catcher going since like that one year Joe Maurer Like B.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that and then he was like a back-end first round picked the next year and that just didn't work out whatsoever
[SPEAKER_01]: So I just can't go catch it that early.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know fourth fifth round sure whatever I can do that But yeah, I think these guys will get it going.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Seattle will get it going.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a very talented team all around I think one of the better all run teams and baseballs.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they'll get it going, but it definitely some concern What a bit concerned with nailer and rawly, but not not full blown panic yet for me
[SPEAKER_00]: Also a team that had a shorter offseason after going to the ALCS and playing a short month of baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there could just be a little bit extra wear and tear that'll take these guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just a little bit extra time to shake off to start this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: But not over word.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: 100% agree.
[SPEAKER_01]: Keep it right in the AL West to one of my favorite guys who.
[SPEAKER_01]: Once again, off to a slow start this year after just tearing it up and spring training.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why Langford with a Texas Rangers.
[SPEAKER_01]: 51 play appearances so far, 160, 176, 280, slash line.
[SPEAKER_01]: As a steal, but still looking for his first home run.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, guy that's had, you know, a couple of decent years is first two years, once 16, 19, as a rookie in 2024, and then 22, 22 in 2025, but was hitting 24 to 250.
[SPEAKER_01]: It felt a little underwhelming, at least compared to many people's expectations.
[SPEAKER_01]: Myself included, but this year it's off to a really poor start.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of guys in the Texas line up kind of aren't nothing the same extent in Seattle is, but, you know, Langford, just not doing anything with the bat right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, metrics are still actually kind of fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's still hitting the ball hard, you know, 43% hard hit rate, 8% barrel rates, but not walking, like usually does, striker rates a little higher as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But making plenty of contact though, in zone is actually higher than it was last couple of years.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what do you make here of white Langford?
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the starting to be,
[SPEAKER_01]: pretty like the decisive, like splits on Langford.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the people that like me, that are still very high in him, that he can be, you know, a top 28, five cowl to play or at some points.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the people I think he's overrated.
[SPEAKER_01]: And where do you add a white Langford these days, Joe?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that there will be a time in his career where Wyatt Langford is being drafted as a first round player.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure when that will be, but I think that he has the potential to be a 30-30 guy who hits 280 who gives you a bold load of runs in our BI.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, each of the last two years, 134 games, 74 runs, 73 runs, 74 RBI, 62.
[SPEAKER_00]: If he plays an entire season, 100, 100 is in the cards.
[SPEAKER_00]: for a while, Langford.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you mentioned, below the surface, there's not a lot to be overly concerned about.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Ags of velocities are in line with where he's been.
[SPEAKER_00]: The barrel rates down from 14.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if I ever expected a 14% barrel rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think he could be somewhere around where his career number is right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: About 11% 12% barrel rate, 45% hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's where he'll stabilize that.
[SPEAKER_00]: By talking about the play discipline stuff from earlier, he's chasing a little bit more than usual from 23 to 30 percent, but contact rates are the same, the same strike rates are the same.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not drawing walks, which is a little bit of a concern.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's had 51 plate appearances and just one free pass.
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year he was walking a ton.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was 13 percent, so that'll be something to monitor.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that that will correct itself, and it might just be some small sample size stuff because
[SPEAKER_00]: As a bit of a side note, hitters as a whole are just really struggling and we do see that in April sometimes just going through the list, if you look at the top 50 hitters or top 50 pitchers, you could pick out off the top of your head, 15 hitters at least that are really struggling with pitchers.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been a little bit more stable.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think you give it a little bit more time and lengthward will figure himself out.
[SPEAKER_00]: The one thing that worries me with him in the profile is just the hamstring oblique side.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if it was hamstring actually.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was oblique inside problems that kept them on the IL last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was three separate IL stints in that type of injury that can repeat on itself.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not a question that talent at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: I wonder if he will be able to get to that 650 plus plate appearances though.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the only thing stopping him in my mind from being a first round player.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, that's very valid.
[SPEAKER_01]: If it was like, he always has something, either has something or just came off of like a minor thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: And none of those injuries were anything major that are a call, but he's got a miss, you know, we can have here two, three weeks there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then all of a sudden, yeah, you're down on that five, five feet, a five, eighty, played a parent's range or he's been in the last couple of years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, it may be, you know, there's some lingering effects there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know, I'm always a little hesitant when these kind of,
[SPEAKER_01]: core body like middle body injuries because of all the, you know, the torque that goes into swinging the baseball bat so you can easily kind of retweet that oblique or that side muscle or whatever, you know, other ones are in there and he's like to kind of strain it from time to time.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the talent absolutely is there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he had, you still want to be better minor league guys I saw in the last decade.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he was running the minor leagues for like 200 player appearances or whatever it was, but he was a beast that he's shown at times.
[SPEAKER_01]: All the tools needed to be that high impact.
[SPEAKER_01]: player and he's a very good runner.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's I think he's been like 80th plus percentile in the major league's 85th percentile this year You know, he's shown that he can hit them all hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: We already went over that You know, maybe the this carates been a little bit high, but nothing you know two terrible You know for the most praise that was not got walks as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, it's kind of peculiar to the only is one walk so far, but
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he's getting into his head and kind of pressing at this point, but he's still 24 to beautiful swing.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think one of the more picturesque right hand to swings and baseball right now and like said, although skills are there, it's just kind of, you know, one area has been kind of holding him down at, you know, at all times and sometimes this is the health.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he'll put it together eventually.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm I'm right there with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like it's going to happen at some point and hopefully he can go in the series.
[SPEAKER_01]: I do have in a lot of length for shares, both in redraft and then you know, keep a dynasty league.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, fingers crossed because I my team is going to absolutely use him to kind of get it going here.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Next guy here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I guess I'm picking all AL West guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't even realize that when I was putting him on the outline here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we'll go to the athletics with a Nick Kurtz.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what's going on with Nick Kurtz right now?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the guy that was the maybe the best hitter in baseball, or at least like top three hitter in baseball for the last two thirds of the season, whatever it was.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, ended with 36 home runs, two 93, 83, six, 19, slash line, and that's all in just four hundred and eight and nine play appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: He scored 90 runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: and drove in 86 in just 117 games.
[SPEAKER_01]: So like, I think it was on pace for like 120 runs, 115 RBI or something in that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: And like all the metrics were at least in the quality of contact were off the charts.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, some of the contact with rates were not where you want them to be.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Kurtz was absolutely dominant, and you know, reason why I'm not super worried right now, Joe, I mean, he's kind of similar to last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, yeah, the WIFR ain't gone even hires.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a concern, but he's still hitting the ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: Very, very hard right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: This hasn't found the Altfield seats yet.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's still doing a lot of good under the hood here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what's your level of concern right now with Nick Kurtz?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they also haven't played a ton in Sacramento, which is part of the appeal of Nick Kurtz, is that home ball park where you're expecting greatness pretty much every time he steps on the field.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a guy that I was fading coming into the year and not really based on the talent, just based on the price, I thought people just got a little bit ahead of themselves and redraft as a top 20 pick, occasionally a first rounder and 15 teamers.
[SPEAKER_00]: it seemed a little bit rich for somebody with his contact profile, but in spite of the struggles to this point of the season, the 39% strikeout rate will fly off the page at you, the contact profile actually looks better in the zone.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, from 75% zone contact last year, that's a horrible number.
[SPEAKER_00]: That is like, mostly you're going to be in AAA with those type of numbers, but the raw power made up for it.
[SPEAKER_00]: This year, the raw power, just, even with the lack of homers is there, a 16% barrel rate, a 58% heart hit rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Maxi V this year is 115.1, which is harder than he hit a ball all of last season.
[SPEAKER_00]: But getting that contact up from 75 to 84% is huge.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even if he does chase a little bit more, I'm fine with that.
[SPEAKER_00]: because the chase rate is already so low for Nick courage.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was 22% last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Visit 26% and we're getting a much better contact in the zone.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll take it.
[SPEAKER_00]: The swinging strike rate is actually down from last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's marginals 14.2 to 13.9, but it's not indicating you should be a 40% strike out rate guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: I've gone from being at the point of I'm happy I didn't I don't need any Nick Kurt shares this year to in my trading leagues thinking I need to get a couple of shares of Nick Kurt's because I think when they do get back to California Disaccommodo in particular, not just California general.
[SPEAKER_00]: Once they get home to their home ballpark I think we will see some good things from Nick Kurt's.
[SPEAKER_00]: You also have to consider the fact that he's stolen a couple bags so far
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I'm not saying he's going to be a burner, but even if he gives you eight steals or something from first base, you'll take that all day.
[SPEAKER_00]: I worry about the batting average.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's a two 90 hitter, but I think you're probably going to get about 30 homers with a 250 batting average in a boat load RBI.
[SPEAKER_00]: So as much as I didn't want to draft him, I kind of want to trade for him and see if I can get him at a discount for somebody who might have panicked.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think there's a lot of panic going on, just want to what I've seen on Nick Kurtz, people questioning, all was last year of legit was he playing over his head, you know, how much was, you know, is the home ballpark factoring into what he had last year, which are all valid questions.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I have those questions too.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm definitely a Nick Kurtz guy,
[SPEAKER_01]: This guy is the power is off the charts and that home ball park will absolutely help.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I still think he can get the 40 home runs this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: It'd be a huge three category guy with an average that won't kill you.
[SPEAKER_01]: As I mentioned, like the context skills aren't the greatest, but when he does, you know, make contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's usually very loud.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you've seen these guys, like I always kind of point to like Raphael Devers.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's never had great context skills.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's always hit like 26270 for the most part.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, in most his seasons because he hits them also damn hard when he does make contact and and you're having a low chase rate also helps and in that regard to which which Kurt's definitely has so yeah I'm not you know one of one of the 10 level conservative Kurt's I'm like a three.
[SPEAKER_01]: not super concerned right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a lot of metrics are still very good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you mentioned, like you get back home, get some home cooking and that get ballpark.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you're going to see you know, Kurds.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, a lot of other exotor strums is struggling, Jacob Wilson's struggling, you know, Rooker is best struggling and he's also, you know, he's hurt right now too after today.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, a lot of these guys are struggling right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think you'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of these guys start to get a go in here over the next few weeks or so.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Great.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go over to some guys that are off to some great starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: And maybe one of the hottest players in all of baseball right now had another home run today.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is how, let's do what we call it.
[SPEAKER_01]: One of my favorite players, not baseball already.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been a big south sewer guy for a while now, obviously following him up through the minor leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, you already has four home runs and three steel so far this year and 55 player appearances with a nice 364 473 727 slash line.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Joe, a lot of the metrics right now are good or great.
[SPEAKER_01]: I see most of them are great, you know, kind of top 10 to 12 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: dial range and a lot of these categories here, especially quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, context feels pretty good too.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a great ballpark to hit in half the time, obviously.
[SPEAKER_01]: And pretty fun since the night line-ups and fun players around him is that it's kind of upcoming young lineup was a little a lot of potential.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, a lot of good here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, kind of every all the arrows for South Stewart are pointing up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, what do you think here on South Stewart?
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you buying what we're seeing from him so far?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I only have two shares, and I'm kicking myself or not taking him pretty much everywhere.
[SPEAKER_00]: I went back and looked actually earlier today at his ADP in October, November, and it was like 250, 260.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was crazy.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was free money, and we should have seen it, and we didn't, a guy who debuted at five homers in 18 games in that ballpark with that lineup around him.
[SPEAKER_00]: With some speed too, I don't think many people realize like 17 steals in the miners last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not a terror.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe it's the fact that he's 225 pounds.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe the fact that most people named Sal don't tend to be very fast.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what it was.
[SPEAKER_00]: Put Sal Stewart was not perceived as this burner.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he's not, but he can give you 15 steals this year or something close to it, especially with three already in the bank.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's nothing I can really say to criticize him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think people got really worried when Swara's got signed and I think another goes to the at bats for him.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be
[SPEAKER_00]: In the miners, he's going to be pletuning or something.
[SPEAKER_00]: Basically, he'd clean up in every game of the season to begin the year for them, and I expect that to continue.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we could be looking at 25 homers, 15 steals, and a 275 batting average, and next year, I'll stew it to the top.
[SPEAKER_00]: Top 70 pick, top 60 pick, possibly.
[SPEAKER_00]: If he has multi-eligibility, there's a possibility he has first and third.
[SPEAKER_00]: If he gets third base as well, which is a horrible position, maybe he's even a top 50 guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that'd that'd be awesome.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, he had third base and after the a few studs at the top, it kind of gets pretty hairy pretty quick there, where some guys that are just, you know, question marks in terms of, you know, durability or track record or, you know, skill and general.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, third base would be really fun to have eligibility for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, he's yeah, you know, he's not a burner by any means, but he's just at one of those smart based on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's just a smart ball player.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, outside of what he can do with the bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a smart ball player.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen guys that are, you know, like 30th percentile's for this video, whatever steal some bags.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, because they're smart, like pools were always give you a
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, eight to ten steals every year for the most part because he was a smart bass runner and we all know Boo holes was low as crap, but he still came back because he read he read pictures well he read their moves well He had good jumps like this other aspects to go into stolen basses had a speed and and still has those he has those intangibles that don't often or don't always show up in a box score or on a Savont page or a fan graphs page, but
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's just pummeling the ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has more walks than strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he really has the entire package.
[SPEAKER_01]: He makes contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: He makes loud contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: He walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: He keeps the K-Ray in check.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of good here for South Stewart.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm right there with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've come thinking he'll be a top six seven guy at whatever position he's eligible at next year.
[SPEAKER_01]: one of those two corners or both.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, being that top maybe even top 50 range.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think, I mean, it won't surprise me.
[SPEAKER_01]: We end to the year and then stouts to what it's like, not 275 with like 32 elements or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: That one surprised me at all.
[SPEAKER_01]: If that's the case, you're probably looking at the nationally rookie of the year, unless Connor Griffin B. Souter or whether he'll be Souter, McLean or one of them.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, Stuart right now, we enter in the clubhouse for a rookie of the year award, which is really cool.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's really cool to
[SPEAKER_01]: And then next guy, probably the leader in the cop house for the America League rookie of the year award, that's chased a lotter with the Cleveland Guardians, already has five home runs, 275, 333, 675, slash lime, the Ole Miss at another home run, the other day took a cold Reagan's pitch out to left center hit of off the wall.
[SPEAKER_01]: So came about what 10 feet or so shy of having his sixth home run of the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: And just to guy that has all the talent in the world, but anybody has kind of followed him over the years, knows that the durability has been a massive question mark with Chase the Latter, but he's also shown what he's capable of doing when healthy and we're seeing that now.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a lot of good metrics under the hood across the board.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's always been the case with him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've always said he was one of the top 10 most talented prospects in baseball with bottom 10 durability.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully, you know, I'm not saying the durability concerns are behind them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'd be foolish to say, that's still definitely a concern in the forefront of my mind right now, but you know, we're seeing all the good right now being put on, you know, a bright stage in the major leagues with the lotters so far the first two weeks of the season with Cleveland.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what do you thoughts here on chased a lotters?
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh for for sure like from a talent perspective, there's not really a single thing that I could stand here and say, but like there's nothing there's nothing there's nothing he hits the ball hard he has a great contact profile, which is actually better this year than it was in the miners last year, 88% zone contact the chase rates only at 24%
[SPEAKER_00]: This one in messes are essentially non-existent there.
[SPEAKER_00]: The only concern is what you mentioned is how many games this guy plays every year in 2023.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was 57, 24, it was 39.
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year it was 42, like he just doesn't stay healthy.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there was already an injury scare this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I forget it was at a foul ball or was it he got hit by a pitch whatever it was last week.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was out of the line up for a day.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's some guys that feel like injuries are just drawn to them.
[SPEAKER_00]: Cole Reagan's gets hit with a line drive the other day off of a Jose Ramirez after a season where he's not healthy.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's some guys that just feel like they're drawn to injuries.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I hope that's not the case with the water, but it really feels like it has been the case.
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe you'll shed that narrative.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I was talking to Mason about the sale of a brand and memo.
[SPEAKER_00]: Where we always talk about brand and memo is these always injury pro and he'll never make it through a 150 games and four straight seasons now.
[SPEAKER_00]: So players can definitely change that perception and that reality has he done it already though.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not 100% sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think you could possibly capitalize on the hype here and get yourself a really sexy name for chase the lottery.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you might be able to trade him for a top-hundred player.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'd be pretty tempted if you were able to get back a
[SPEAKER_00]: maybe it's not a Nolan McLean, but somebody in that kind of 70 to 180 p-range, maybe it's a Luis Robert, a George Springer, a Michael Harris, whoever it is, I feel like you should if you own him, specifically for a redraft, I feel like it's worth exploring what people are willing to give you for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, even me as a, obviously, I've been a huge to a lot of guy for a long time.
[SPEAKER_01]: I even tweeted the other day that, you know, with how high I've been on him for so long, even when people were kind of jumping the ship because of the injuries, like him excelling right now gives me like proud Papa vibes.
[SPEAKER_01]: I go, that's my boy right there.
[SPEAKER_01]: You finally doing it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I get proud Papa vibes right now with, which is a lot of maybe that's what we're at.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: But so I feel so, um,
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, even me, a big daughter guy, I mean, at least kick the tires on a potential trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: And but at the same time, I would aim very high.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because, you know, this is, I've always said like this is maybe one of the best times to sell high is when a young, you know, even like a top caliber prospect debuts and does well out of the gate.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the time that you can capitalize on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But at the same time, you're like, you know, back to your mind, hey, what have this just to start of something that could be really good?
[SPEAKER_01]: And maybe the waters are top 25 player eventually.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's the upside we're talking about.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because he has the contact, the approach, the power of speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all there with the water.
[SPEAKER_01]: But obviously, the floor is a little bit lower than most due to those injuries that he said a lot of,
[SPEAKER_01]: over the years, but yeah, I named top 100 bare minimum.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe even shoot top 75.
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't get something that you're like, wow, this is, I got to take this.
[SPEAKER_01]: If that feeling, if that's not your initial reaction, if you're like, I don't know if I should take this, then the answer is no.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's kind of always what I say with these types of players like if this is a immediate like wow this person just offered me that guy yeah I'm going to take that then yeah that definitely can entertain that but if that's not your initial reaction I do I would just wait hold hold out and kind of it's wait for a better offer to come or just hold on to them so I think he's a really good player for a long time
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, if you can avoid the IL.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's still who knows, you know who knows.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you can.
[SPEAKER_00]: Injuries are just so impossible to predict with a guy who's at a bunch, I'd lean towards.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's probably going to be some more.
[SPEAKER_00]: But also, I fully agree with capitalizing right out of the gate, whether it's redraw for even potentially dynasty.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, this is, you might end the show here.
[SPEAKER_00]: This might be a source, but like Christian Campbell at the beginning of last year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I'm sorry.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like a bad enough, like a bad enough hell for the first couple of weeks of the season.
[SPEAKER_00]: like a 200 WRC plus if you sold him in redraft in the first two weeks last year, then you're sitting in your new vacation home that you purchased with your lead when you're laughing at us right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: So sometimes it's better to be prudent.
[SPEAKER_00]: For every Christian Campbell there is a bobby wit Julio and corporate carell who's just amazing right away.
[SPEAKER_00]: But when there's that injury risk baked in, I think you'd be doing yourself a disservice to just
[SPEAKER_00]: at least not kick the ties, you know, just see what people, somebody might say, y'all right, I'll give you a mad Olson for him or something.
[SPEAKER_00]: Or you know, if you make it a crazy offer, you never know.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's the thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you never know.
[SPEAKER_01]: It just takes one person to give you that offer.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's all it takes.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you might be surprised what you get.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, tap into me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure it's happening to you too, Joe.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, sometimes you get those offers.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're like, yep, I will take that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you very much.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, next guy up here, that's finally breaking out.
[SPEAKER_01]: They've been waiting for this guy to break out for a few years now, but Jordan Walker, finally doing this thing in St. Louis, five home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: They had like four home runs in a six game stretch or whatever it was.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, five home runs, four to the end of plate appearances,
[SPEAKER_01]: And every metric that has to do with hitting the ball hard, he's the number one or at least top five, you know, 99th percentile in barrel rate, 100%ile in average, V x log hard hit rate and he's leading the league in several of these categories.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a 27% barrel rate average EV over 97 miles an hour and a 70% hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we're talking 30 bad at ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's still a very small sample size.
[SPEAKER_01]: But walkers, you've got as always, even when he was struggling on the surface, he always had the hard hit rates and the bat speed and even a good sprint speed as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of all those things under hood to do it.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: We still see the path to him being a really good player, you know, but the angles have always been crap.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this year, finally getting the ball in the air, workers just suddenly will see that continues.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, you don't want to see that stabilize more than two weeks.
[SPEAKER_01]: But hey, a lot of good here so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a, you know, everything you can ask for out of Jordan Walker through two weeks, are you buying it, Joe?
[SPEAKER_00]: I am kind of buying it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that he'll be better than we've seen him before.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's not a terribly high bar to clear, especially recently.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he had a 116WRC plus in 2023.
[SPEAKER_00]: He is not cracked even a league average season at any level for any period of time since then.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I know he's dealt with some injuries.
[SPEAKER_00]: He missed a little bit of time.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's been pretty pissed poor for two whole years now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I find it hard to believe that he is now a superstar.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like these barrel and heart hit rates are what you'd expect to see if we had Baybruth type of stat cast at a 23 barrel rate, 70 heart hit rate, 93 average, or 97 average eV, but there still are some concerns within the profile for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: The contact rates are still not good.
[SPEAKER_00]: And part of that in the early going could just be that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jordan Walker is hitting the crap out of everything so he's swinging and everything and he doesn't really care what the contact rates are because when he's making contact right now the balls leaving the yard So we give it a little bit more time to stabilize they might look better.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's never been an amazing contact guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: He said 81 zone contact 69.6 contact overall It's not amazing to go along with a 15% swing strike rate
[SPEAKER_00]: Once the badad ball data starts to come back down to Earth a little bit, I fear that we might be looking at a little bit more of a pedestrian season.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it'll still be very good.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't think Jordan Walker is going to be a top five round player next year.
[SPEAKER_00]: The way that I could see it would chase the lot or else to it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's possible.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if you're just looking at me physically, he fits the Pi 6 foot 6.
[SPEAKER_00]: He looks like an athlete.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's really when you see him in the batter's box.
[SPEAKER_00]: He looks like he could be a superstar.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I'm not sure that he's fully ready yet and you know it's funny we've been waiting for so long you mentioned it I've mentioned it on show earlier this week he's still only 23 years old so there's a chance that he's not fully polished we're seeing a taste right now what the upside could look like in a couple years once he is a fully rounded majorly player.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think we're probably looking at low 20s homers, low teen stolen bases with maybe a 26270 batting average.
[SPEAKER_00]: I might be totally wrong, and this might be a 40 home run season in coming, but I'm not sure that the breakout is gonna sustain the way some other people do.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think those barrel and heart hit rates are gonna normalize in the 12% and 50% range respectively.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it'll be a good season from him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure I'm ready to declare that this is the summer of George type of thing for Jordan Walker.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know that that's totally fair and you know what I kind of get the vibe here with with Walker and it's not like a direct player company.
[SPEAKER_01]: It means but it gives me kind of like Joe Dell vibes a little bit where you know obviously like both the both of these guys have you know a lot of strength a lot of speed athleticism like they look like they're just you know premium athletes and you know obviously Dell had the nice breakout last year with a bunch of power where he's not like
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh yeah, he's like a top one 25 150 guy or whatever he was going 80 P this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was in that general ballpark where you know, maybe that at times they could be a top 100 player back ends, you know, but by and large, probably just outside of it, probably not top 50 guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: They still have their flaws each of them.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, like, all right, at least maybe they are a good turn into the superstar.
[SPEAKER_01]: We thought at least the all round superstar, but
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they can have starlight qualities and still have some value to fantasy teams.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of where I'm at on Walker.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's I think he should be, yeah, I could top maybe top behind out.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll give him maybe back in top 100, but yeah, I'm I'm higher long term on the the lotters and and the, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: Who's yet got we talked about it's like, oh, South Stewart man.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry.
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about 10 minutes ago, you know, I'm higher on those guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: They have more I think staying power as like a top 100 or even higher than that player.
[SPEAKER_00]: So even the next time we're going to talk about I think that I'm actually higher on the Walker long term.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure how you feel about that one.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the next guy, I'm, I've always been so, you know, all over the place with this next guy, and this came Smith would be the Houston Astros, and I got that hat, you know, it's a pretty good prospect pedigree, it was a first round pick with a Cubs.
[SPEAKER_01]: went to the Houston Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: So obviously being a big piece back in the Tucker returns.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of expectations on him.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he has some flashes in his rookie year, but overall ended with a 236-312-358 slash line this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll do a much better start.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, cool, a little bit of late, but 273-355-523.
[SPEAKER_01]: Three bombs, three steals, and 52 plate appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think the one thing that people seem to kind of overlook if he's to do so, but he barely had any time in the minor weeks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he was there for a quick second.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't remember how many play appearances it was.
[SPEAKER_01]: She had to probably pull it up.
[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... to you how many it was it one thirty four i think one thirty four thig yes so that's what's that like thirty five or so games in the minor leagues that's not a lot so um... he was doing like and the vans bad he was pushed hard he kind of had to do some injuries he got called up probably quicker than they wanted uh... he's still young he's twenty three as well and very inexperienced and kind of compared to his peers in terms of professional
[SPEAKER_01]: played appearances between the miners and the majors, but still a lot of good here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the one of those guys like Walker, where I got at the bat speed, sprint speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: All these kind of things were still keeping you intrigued.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think there's some downside with him here, too.
[SPEAKER_01]: You look at the savant page.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this kind of the sliders are all over the place.
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... so camosmith very intriguing i'm actually a little bit higher walker but i like both these guys to to some extent i'm not you know i'm still higher on store in the lotter than these two but i'm definitely intrigued by uh... by camosmith the what do you think you're yeah i think it's really important what you mentioned this guy essentially skipped the minor leagues was traded for a marquee guy who is now the highest paid player i think in the league on
[SPEAKER_00]: her year basis, Kyle Tucker making whatever $60,000,000 a year.
[SPEAKER_00]: He gets traded for that guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're the replacement for that guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a lot of pressure there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Plus they moved him from third base to the outfield.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's learning a new position on the fly.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if you just looked at what he did in 2025, and you'd say, all right, it was a 90WRC plus.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a 670 OPS, it was kind of a pedestrian season.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was actually considering everything, a pretty great season for him.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's already in 13 games, matched his F4 output from last year, nearly, which is incredible.
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's a lot of really fantasy-friendly stuff here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the barrel rates probably not going to maintain at 17%, that's pretty crazy.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he doesn't need it to with that ballpark and the Crawford box is in left field.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that you could see, you know, 25 home runs as soon as this season from Kansmith, I would probably be, yeah, that's higher than any of the projections to see it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're calling for the top number would be about 18 over the course of the whole season.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you can push that concern the power that he has displayed with that ballpark.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got the speed.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's already stolen the three bases.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has 96% tile sprint speed.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we could see the upside here of a of a 2020 or a 25, 25 season.
[SPEAKER_00]: I do worry a little bit about the contact profile as I mentioned a couple times throughout this show.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's one of the things I really focused in on.
[SPEAKER_00]: He chases a little bit more than I'd like his own contacts not great.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's got a 16% swing strike rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not sure he's going to be a huge asset in terms of the batting average.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if he could be a 23 homer 22 steel guy and hit you 250 or so.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're talking about why a link for it's that line from last year, which is kind of what I think the upside could be for cancer myth this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there's definitely that upside.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he, he showed that and I would love to see him actually I lean into his home ballpark because you look at some of the bad at ball angles for him like the pull air rate, not great, you know, air rate, pull rate, not really what you want to see from a guy in Houston.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, I'm hoping he can like talk with, you know, two bay, talk with your parades, maybe get on the phone with Breggman, you know, obviously was there for a long time, like right handed bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: that's really utilized the Crawford Boxes and ended up with more home runs that you'd probably expect those guys to have given their quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, if he really serves to kind of leaning into, you know, get pull side pop a bit more.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, it was 35 and a half percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: Pull rate this year, only 30 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: Pull average, can be 3 percent this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, he's not utilizing that ballpark.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's already played a handful of games there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not like,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, super worried about that yet, but that's really I think the key for him because all the skills of their under the hood.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there's some contact issues like you mentioned.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's that be, you know, more than a 25260 type of hitter, but the upside to go 20 plus 20 plus.
[SPEAKER_01]: is absolutely there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, I'm definitely intrigued here by Smith.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still 23 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still a lot of good, you know, good ballpark, good lineup.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got all those really good hitters hitting around him, you know, you're in the Alvarez as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think he's a pretty good player.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe one of those kind of backends, top 100 guys as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I could see it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just stick with these recuperators.
[SPEAKER_00]: This guy only pulls fly balls.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's all he does.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, if you can rub a little bit of
[SPEAKER_01]: I know, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what was in the Puerto Proco, I want to say, what was parade is Polaroid?
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, my word.
[SPEAKER_01]: This year, it's 43 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: Polaroid, last year was 38 and a half percent with a, yeah, he's a 90 and this year 90 and a half percent air rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: What?
[SPEAKER_00]: He's built for that park, which is on the side note, why I always thought Brady's is going to play it, like that you don't have a player so Taylor made for that ballpark that you're not going to play, there was a price was really low and redraft just because there were a little bit crowded and then there was the painting injury, but yeah it was essentially built for that ballpark.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, 100%.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I, there's to the guy that has been more influenced by his ballpark than parades.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not him, you know, do well in Tampa than he got traded through the Cubs where the left field wall was, was what 25, 30 feet further or whatever it was.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he sucked with the Cubs.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had three home runs and 52 games with the Cubs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now he's back in Houston, you know, like, all right.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm back in.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm not a big parades guy in general, but
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, in the right ballpark, I can be intrigued for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Lean on, you know, come on, Cam.
[SPEAKER_01]: Talk to talk to Paradee.
[SPEAKER_01]: Talked out to V. You know, I'm sure I'll too be.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's got Bragman's number.
[SPEAKER_01]: Give him a call.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, learn how to utilize that ballpark for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about one catcher off to a bad start earlier.
[SPEAKER_01]: We got a few that are off to really good starts and these two in particular.
[SPEAKER_01]: We got Shay Bangaliers as he's, you know, admiral we known as now, you know, hitting 289 and 333 644 5 home runs and 48 player appearances can would be only.
[SPEAKER_01]: athletic.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's really off to a hot start.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the other guy Drake Baldwin, you know, coming off a phenomenal rookie year last year, and we'll take yous taking things to new heights this year already as five home runs in 59 play appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: So last year in 321, 396, 23, hitting right in the middle of a very talented at length of line up, you know, with the guys like,
[SPEAKER_01]: Koenion Olsen, Riley, and Ozzie and Harris, and all of them hitting around him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know that lineup's had his ups and downs, but that's still one of the more talented lineups in all of baseball, and he's hitting right in the middle of it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, at this point, you know, my, I think Languillers was the C3 off the board, or C3 or C4, and they bought it was a few spots.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was like C6, C7, C8 range.
[SPEAKER_01]: So guys that are already you know drafted pretty highly that are you know exceeding expectations so far So what do you think in here with Langalayas and Baldwin?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what sort of Langalayas because he's a guy that's you know last year had the best year of his career You know home runs have always been there, but every year he just seems to get better
[SPEAKER_01]: and better as a header and making more contact, propin the K rates, you know, things that you want to see, and that really came to fruition last year, and now he's kind of proving that last year was, was not a fluke, and he's here stay as an elite option, so with Langler being 28, great ballpark, great lineup around him.
[SPEAKER_01]: You see, maybe the new C1, if you think you can overtake Raleigh for, you know, kind of that top catcher in fantasy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Man, it's going to be really a toss up next year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see Rally getting back and being the C1.
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see it being either of these two guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see it being the next guy we haven't talked about yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see it being William Contreras.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's probably not trending towards Augustine Ramirez, but if he ends up turning things around and giving you a 2020 season as a catcher, some people might want to take him first.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the deepest the position I think is probably ever been.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, I didn't end up with any shade Langoliers, which is really annoying, uh, at this stage.
[SPEAKER_00]: Usually, especially because all those homeruns in the first weekend came against my Blue Jays.
[SPEAKER_00]: He hit two on the first day of the season.
[SPEAKER_00]: He hit another one the next day.
[SPEAKER_00]: I worry a little bit about the strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year was a phenomenal drop for him.
[SPEAKER_00]: He went down below 20%, it was backed up by the swinging strike rate as well, which was down at 11%.
[SPEAKER_00]: This year, despite his contact rate being improved, his general contact rate is at 73, his inzone is at 88.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the swinging strike rate is back up after we saw the one year drop down to 11 points.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's back up to 14 in change.
[SPEAKER_00]: his first couple years were 34, 29, 27.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's probably closer to who he is.
[SPEAKER_00]: My, my concern with Languilliers, he's hitting 289 right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a 333 babbip.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would be very surprised of that continues, even with a very hitter friendly park.
[SPEAKER_00]: The previous three years were 2018, 205, 224.
[SPEAKER_00]: And while I don't think it'll be quite that bad, I think that some of the swinging miss can't keep the upside for that batting average down a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think
[SPEAKER_00]: If he hits 250, you should consider that a pretty big win, but I think that even 2.32.40 is probably closer to what is going to happen, because despite the contact rates being better, if you're adding more swing and miss, then I think those strikeouts are going to continue to chip away the batting average a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I wouldn't expect 277 again, but 35 homers, some chipping speed, a really good lineup.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, it will be a really good lineup.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been struggling to this point, but
[SPEAKER_00]: they haven't played a lot at home.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would I would expect they'll turn things around.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of it for shangleers.
[SPEAKER_00]: I've kind of combined his name.
[SPEAKER_00]: I like I don't have any problem with people who who took him early.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's paying off, but I do think that adding average will come back down to earth.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would 100% agree with with the athletics something I noticed earlier when I was looking at Jacob Wilson, a lot of them are chasing a lot more this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure if it's like a philosophy change or maybe it's something random early season thing that I'll stabilize will see, but I think Jacob Wilson's chase it was like 53% or something like insanely ridiculous, which you know, obviously he's got the context.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was back it up, but that's you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: Super high a lot of these guys are chasing a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean courage really isn't though courage is chasing more just not you know at a terrible rate But you're seeing you know laying leaders is chasing more.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a chase rate 35% though.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's always been a higher chase rate guy, but yeah, I think it's really you know
[SPEAKER_01]: really all comes down to how much of last year sticks this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, is he if he's fully last year and then adds even more home runs and yeah, he could be the C1 easily.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if it's summer's in the middle, which I think is kind of where I'm at as well, where he's hitting like 252, 60, 30, 35 home runs, you know, 75 plus runs and good amount of RBI as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then in a handful of steel is to go along with it, which is always nice to get from your catcher.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he has a 90%ile spritz, but he's a good athlete, you know, that's been very apparent for a long time.
[SPEAKER_01]: He always moved well, but yeah, that contact rate and the strike rate really kind of the two ex actors here for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: 33% care it right now, so hopefully that can go back down, but yeah, I think Languards is going to be right in that C1 discussion, you know, same with Baldwin too.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this guy,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I saw him kind of in the minor leagues early on and I was, I mean, this guy is just, he's a hitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it was one of those guys where you just like, you know, watch him play, you know, like, man, this guy, the baddest legit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you see all the metrics and they back it up and you feel even better about it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, last year as a rookie catcher, I mean, I take these numbers and then kind of even boost them even higher because he's a rookie catcher, you know, near 50% heart hit rate last year,
[SPEAKER_01]: all while having just a 15% carry up of average contact rates, a lot of good for Drake Baldwin and he's taken that and don't even better this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's off to a hot start at 321, 390, 623, 5 bombs, a lot of good metrics under the hood there, a lot of red on this avant page.
[SPEAKER_01]: See you guys that you think could even make a run at that C1 and maybe he's not quite as flashy as as rawlier a few other catchers, but he may be like one of the better combinations of like ceiling and floor, especially from a young catcher, we don't see that very often so Do you think Baldwin could kind of work his way into that C1 discussion here?
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, how would see one?
[SPEAKER_00]: He's the overall player number one right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, all of fantasy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, I kid.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not going to finish his number one player.
[SPEAKER_00]: Can you imagine if we got a catcher who doesn't be the end of the game finishes the number one player.
[SPEAKER_00]: He just hits 58 homers and hits 325 or something.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that the lack of speed holds him back because even, you know, the raw leaves, the William Contreras is the other guy that wangaliers like these guys will contribute at least the handful of steals, which I think will really help in terms of the player Raiders in terms of how they rank.
[SPEAKER_00]: Baldwin could be drafted as the number one guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if he'd finish as the number one guy just based on that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Plus, you know, 20 plus homers is even that might be selling them shortly.
[SPEAKER_00]: He had 19 homers and 440 plate appearances last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: This might be 30 homers, honestly.
[SPEAKER_00]: the way he started a five in the bank already.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's always hit for a good batting average and this is a guy who maybe he does hit two ninety to three hundred.
[SPEAKER_00]: The projections are you know, a little bit lower, but I think the upside there is a three hundred batting average in what is ostensibly a good lineup, although I know he'd been saying that for several years that the Braves are going to turn things around and they haven't and they seem to be a little bit cursed before the season with all the injuries and pro far and Waldrup and everything happening.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think, you know, you give him a whole season worth of it back to that line up with a coonier reattitude.
[SPEAKER_00]: You could be looking at 65, 70 runs, 90 to a hundred RBI to go along with what could be 30 homers and a 300 batting average.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even without the steals, you know, I'm going to talk myself into it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see a world where he does finishes the number one catcher and gets drafted as such next year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it's weird to say for a sucking your catcher, but he feels that he might be the safest.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think the floor isn't quite as low for him as it might be with Raleigh as it might be with Langoliers and with Ramirez and all the other guys, because there's no real weakness.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I guess you could say, like, you mentioned the lack of steals, but that's not really a weakness.
[SPEAKER_01]: that's just not an addition.
[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't add value.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not like zero steals takes away value from your team.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's so going to find those deals elsewhere.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if he's given me really good production and fork categories, you can live with that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's never going to be a steal.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's even attempting to steal him last five years.
[SPEAKER_01]: He saw that he's a magical
[SPEAKER_01]: four category production, hit to 280, hit 25, 30 home runs, you know, drive in, now you need to a hundred, you know, score 75 or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that definitely could be in that in that discussion for the C1, but yeah, like you kind of alluded to earlier and as I've said many times in myself, catcher is freaking loaded right now, like this is the best I've seen this position in my lifetime of plank energy baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I don't think it's really even that remotely close where I was waiting and getting like, yeah, I could mention that that that Adley Rushman rain like Ramirez was back there, Kirk Alvarez like Carter Jensen even, you even got into like the C2 range.
[SPEAKER_01]: You were like, oh, Dylan Dingler, he's still pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, they're still like a lot of Kyle Teele and these her obviously, but a lot of young talent and even more coming up with a
[SPEAKER_01]: that are kind of getting added into the mix now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this position is in a really good spot for a really long time.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a lot of these guys are, you know, below 30 years old for the most part.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, this position is gonna be pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And especially if this next guy, the last guy we're talking about here can maintain that eligibility.
[SPEAKER_01]: you know for the for the long term and not just this year and next I hope he does that's Ben Rice who currently actually leads the major leagues in WRC plus nice little 250 WRC plus right now he's ahead of Jordan Alvarez will your Brayue Andy Pahez and South Stewart for the top five spots and then Brendan Donovan in sixth you know good for Brendan Donovan
[SPEAKER_01]: pretty cool to see Donovan up there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know it's early in the season, but Ben Rice leading the way.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's hitting 333, 527, 377, 3 bombs in 44 political appearances for the Yankees, 25% walk rate as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of just living up to the hype of, you know, those lofty lofty expectations thrust upon him.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, last year this off season,
[SPEAKER_01]: through draft season, you know, Joe, you saw that ADP, the same the rise and rise and rise, then it kind of stabilized and February and March, but you know, at that point he was, you know, I taught 50-ish draft pick, which is higher than I thought it was going to go, but I was still buying him because, you know, this is a guy that, you know, I saw in AA, and he's one of those guys that just like stood out immediately.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then ever since then, like the metrics have always been a phenomenal, like you look at the Savon page, just fan grabs page.
[SPEAKER_01]: All the rates, all the sliders, all the percentiles for the most part are very, very good.
[SPEAKER_01]: No real, huge weakness in the profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're afraid it's a little high right now, sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: But
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is a guy that that makes contact that gets on base hits for power.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously a lefty in the Yankee Stadium.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's always an added bonus too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, Ben Rice, often phenomenal start living up to the hype, you know, are you just all in at this point, or are you still kind of waiting to see if he can do this for a full season?
[SPEAKER_00]: No, I'm fully bought in.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I was fully bought in after last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then I think the goldsmith signing kind of put everybody off just a little bit, just thinking, okay, how many it bats is he going to get against left hand pitching now?
[SPEAKER_00]: Is that kind of minimize his opportunities?
[SPEAKER_00]: It should, and it really should.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if you look at the Savont pages and even beyond the Savont pages and dig into the specific stats, he's already arguably one of the best hitters in all of baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's hyperbole.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, part of that maybe is that he debuted a little bit later than a lot of guys do making his major debut at 25 as opposed to 21 or 22, maybe it was a little bit more seasoned than the average guy that you're looking at coming up to the bigs.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's really anything I can say to criticize him in terms of looking at 2026.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that he is a star, arguably a superstar, not in terms of name value, but maybe in a couple years.
[SPEAKER_00]: The only thing I can say that worries me a little bit is he may lose catcher eligibility after this season.
[SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't caught yet through the first 10 games of the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now if you're playing on a site like Yahoo, where you need only five games, then you might get it.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're looking at like an NFB C threshold or other sites where it's a higher number
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, 15 or 20 starts.
[SPEAKER_00]: That might be a situation where you have to start thinking ahead.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you are in a din as the keeper league and you have been rice as your catcher, he has to start thinking about what you're going to do next year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Not that this is definitive.
[SPEAKER_00]: He might need to catch maybe there's an injury, an awesome weld or something that they need him to catch.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the way things stand right now, I wouldn't expect him to have cash eligibility in 2027.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I don't think he does either, and like I did a little like Crystal Ballet episode recently, and I had him as a first baseman, you know, I don't think he doesn't maybe, he retains it in 27, but you know, I was looking at 29, I was looking through years out, and I'm like at this point, I think it's a very slim chance that he has catcher eligibility.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's a full-time first baseman, I think they would want to keep his bat in the line up and on half to half him out of the line up, you know, as you do with catchers for the most part.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I mean, he's arguably there, I think you make a case for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the number two hitter right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously, you know, jazz is fun, you know, bellenges there, you know, obviously, judges number one for that team, but you can make a case just for your hitting ability that rice is number two on that team.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think you make a strong case for us.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you want him in that line of every day, you know, hitting fourth, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: You rip behind judgment, Bellinger, that's a phenomenal spot to be in.
[SPEAKER_01]: You got standing in jazzy jazz behind just, you got some protection as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's in a really good line of spot, really good ball park, obviously, for left handed pole power, which he leans into.
[SPEAKER_01]: And his angles are good for that park.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I am.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been all in on Ben Rice for a while now and I'm definitely all in now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he could be the C1, if he were change eligibility, but even if not, I think this could be maybe even like a top three, it was surprised me, you know, what's fast forward to like draft season next year, if he was like the third first vision off the board behind Vladdy and behind Kirk, I think I think Kirk's gonna go and so like it could be Vladdy Kirk's and then Ben Rice because all the other guys are kind of older now.
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, the the harbors, the Olsen's, you know, all of them, you know, lawns was up there, but I could see Rice being, you know, at top 30 peck and being the number three guy off the board at that position, to me, I think he's that good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see him going ahead of Kurds.
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see it, you know, safer contact profile.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's still got a nice park.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a better lineup around him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't, I forget if we have a solidified date of how long they're going to be in Sacramento for is it is next year
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the next year as far as I know, I think 2028 and I might be completely off on this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it changed a few times, so it's hard to keep track.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was getting pushed out a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: But last thing I remember hearing, I think is 2028 with the first year in Vegas, but I'm not 100% sure on that by any means.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I guess it would depend on the ballpark, but if Kurt's over the next couple of years loses that advantage, his home ballpark, I can see the tail, the scales tipping more towards Ben Rice as the number two, or I mean, hell, Vlad he has his own ground ball power troubles for here and there.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it didn't happen in the playoffs, he was hitting the home run every other at bat.
[SPEAKER_00]: But this guy went 23 home runs next season as a blue J fan.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is literally killing me to say this, but Ben Rice could even jump over Vlad he had some point in the next couple of years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I can see that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the skills are there for Ben Rice for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's a perfect example.
[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned how he debuted a little bit older than you you see for most prospects.
[SPEAKER_01]: Something I've said a thousand times on this podcast, prospect development, there's just development in general, not linear.
[SPEAKER_01]: You get your kind of reference and your photos and tutsis and the coonus that are up super early and you get some of your later bloomers like Ben Rice who debuted at 25.
[SPEAKER_01]: You see that all the time too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there's different paths to the major leagues, and that's why, I think you see that more in baseball than any other sport, which is another You know, reason 6,258 y we love baseball so much because it's there's many paths to success in baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's a good spot to end it on with Ben Rice there, Joe.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you so much for coming on.
[SPEAKER_01]: This was an absolute blast.
[SPEAKER_01]: Talk at some early season hitting standouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you got going on?
[SPEAKER_01]: You're obviously a busy man at a few different spots here.
[SPEAKER_01]: What are you going on right now?
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, thank you for having me on, man.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been two long since you and I have caught up.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll have to have you onto one of the several podcasts that I have a part of.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sleeper in the bus.
[SPEAKER_00]: I haven't recorded with Paul and Justin in a week and a half or so.
[SPEAKER_00]: align our schedules, but they will be doing two start pitchers, I think tomorrow morning looking head to next week, and there's usually two or three sleeper in the bus episodes in the feed every week.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm usually on one to two of them, depending on the time of year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Fantasy Pros, Baseball Podcasts, I host one episode a week.
[SPEAKER_00]: We got an episode with Mr. DVR Derrick van Rape for himself coming out tomorrow morning.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, tomorrow afternoon, by the time you guys are here in this anyway, this will be this will be out on Friday.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you guys once you've done listen to this, go check out the show with DVR went through the panic meter.
[SPEAKER_00]: Talk about 10 slow starts.
[SPEAKER_00]: We mentioned Nick Kurtz.
[SPEAKER_00]: We mentioned Raleigh.
[SPEAKER_00]: So some more thoughts on those guys in a few other Shane McLanahan, Boba Chandler, some other slow starters that we mentioned as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: and then you can check out my weekly articles one of them at fan graphs this week I talked about five breakouts starting pictures that I am buying into and then also a weekly waiver wire article that comes out at ftn so if you're not sick of me you will be very very soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: Nobody should be sick of Joe this great work and he's a good analyst good player.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, just won the the big NFBC postseason contest last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So congrats again on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still took a change into your bank account there.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's got to feel good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's a good time of year.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of stuff going on.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, you know, follow all my stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: Got my my Patreon, wrote a baller.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to grace them for wrote a baller as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll follow Joe on Twitter at Joe or Rico.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's O-R-R-I-C-O.
[SPEAKER_01]: 99.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, I am an Eric Cross MLB and I'll be back with you again early next week.
[SPEAKER_01]: But until then, everyone take care.