[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's up, everyone?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed podcast brought to you by Roto Baller.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 443.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB and the show is at Toolshed Pod.
[SPEAKER_01]: When overheating prospects to Target and redrawfully, it's the last episode, if you missed that, go back and check that out.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now we'll be hitting the pitching prospects to Target and there are a lot of exciting names,
[SPEAKER_01]: on the pitching side as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's to be a really fun 2026 cookie class all the round and plenty of exciting names on the pitching side.
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of the top rookie ADPs are actually pitchers.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think like seven of the top 10, if you're looking at just rookie ADPs, are pitchers.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I really talented crop, but before we get into all of those names, the usual housekeeping, if you enjoy the podcast, please rate and review.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find all of my content, either on Rotabauer or over on my Patreon toolshifancy.com, all of my rankings are up there, team preview podcasts, cross examination is back, pumping out a ton of content over on my Patreon.
[SPEAKER_01]: I greatly appreciate all of the support.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Right now is a great time taking advantage of all of the phenomenal content and tools available at Rotobar with our draft kit and premium pass.
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[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's get into the top rookies here for 2026 on the pitching side.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I have my full rookie rankings available over on my Patreon.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got 100 deep there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So even if you play in, you know, a draft champions league where you're going 50 rounds, 750 picks.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, that covers guys that are in that range as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we'll just be covering the top guys in the top like 350 ish.
[SPEAKER_01]: EDP or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: The two biggest names are Chase Burns and Nolan McLean.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know Chase Burns graduated in terms of service time.
[SPEAKER_01]: I hate tracking service time, and I know most fantasy leagues just go off of the 130 and 50 thresholds.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's still a prospect for now, at least in my rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Burns is going just outside the top 100.
[SPEAKER_01]: And McLean just inside, you know, burns around like 110 or so on average.
[SPEAKER_01]: McLean around pick 90 on average.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've gotten I think one two shares of McLean so far and one share of burns I've said it several places now You might be tired of hearing it, but I am 100% okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going with one of these guys as my SP3 Maybe even make burns of a clean will be SP2 level Then some of the other names you like you savage Chandler in my guys like that would be more
[SPEAKER_01]: SP3 range, but if you already have one or two guys, depending on which guys are talking about here, that you feel good about, I think you're fine taking an upside play with one of these guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, obviously, Burns and McLean, you do a little bit more reaching the get right around that pick 100 or even inside the top 100 for a McLean, I'm fine with that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I am super high on both these guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: Chase Burns 35 and a half percent carate with Cincinnati last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he just strikes everybody out.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been a little bit of an up and down spring, you know, but he was, you know, I'm sweating the sea because he said that the sinker is improved.
[SPEAKER_01]: The curve ball is improved.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not really seeing any new pitch mix on him though, as thought we'd see some of the other pitches
[SPEAKER_01]: But hey, I mean, those are still two really good offerings, you know, fastball averaging right around 99 miles per hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: 25% with rates, I mean, that's in the lead offering 18 inches of induced vertical break there and Slider already one of the best sliders in all of baseball averaging around 90-91 miles now or 44% with rate in a 197 batting of jigans change up use Primarily against lefty's last year that had some solid traits to it as well
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but it hasn't only used it much overall of just 5.6%, you should rate though against left these.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was a 10% usage rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a little more there, but still want to see him kind of go to those other pitches a bit more before I'm like, oh, this guy's a top five guy, which I think he has the upside to be.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, for right now, looks like he's still primarily that fast, but a slaughter guy, but even if that is the case, you know, sure, maybe the ratios are a little higher, but I think you're gonna get one of the best strikeout rates in the game.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you did the last year, 35 and 1.5% only an eight and a half percent walker rates or kept that and check.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, I don't want the ballpark.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, he has to pitch, you know, around 1.5 is games in.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're gonna come ballpark as never, you know, a great place to pitch.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think with the guy that can miss as many bats as Chase Burns does, I think he can make it work.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's a guy that I think can easily be drafted as a fantasy ace next year in 2027 drafts.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I am fine taking him as my SP3 or even SP2 here.
[SPEAKER_01]: in twenty twenty six and same thing for no one McLean.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, maybe the upside isn't quite as high as burns, but it's right there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you could say he's a little safer too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So right now, they're literally one A one B.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're basically even in my rankings by us, but somebody ahead, but I love McLean as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a more diverse picture.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the fact that he's already risen to this
[SPEAKER_01]: given the fact that he was still a two way player in 2024 is phenomenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: Me, it's phenomenal already being this highly ranked in regard to so early in your career after just eight starts, but then you add in the fact that this was, or this past year, which is first year focusing solely on pitching, no more hitting, no more abstractions,
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm really excited, just as a baseball fan in general, and as someone that has a few shares already in fantasy leagues, just to see what he's gonna do in his first full year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, I've been pretty proud to,
[SPEAKER_01]: top of that medsortation.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a really good one to combination there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And McLean, he's filthy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's no other way to describe them.
[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff just moves.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a lot of east to west action, the sinker sweeper curve ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he pitches in multiple different velocity bands.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, four seam sinker on the mid 90s.
[SPEAKER_01]: He can get a little bit higher on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got the mid 80s sweeper mid 80s.
[SPEAKER_01]: Change up curve ball in the low 80s.
[SPEAKER_01]: He'll
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's changing speeds.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's changing eye levels.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going east to west.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he can drop down the change up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just a really tough time.
[SPEAKER_01]: For a header to be in the box against Nolan McLean.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's going to be, you know, maybe a top 10 pitcher this year in general.
[SPEAKER_01]: So even though he's a, you know, rookie only 48 major league innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe a little risky to draft the guy like that in general as your SP2, but this is a guy that I feel really good about.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you've got to get them, top 180p, I already have, so I recommend to this as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I love McLean, especially if you pair him with a safer SP1, like a Logan web or a Christopher Sanchez, someone like that, I think makes a lot of sense to go McLean as your second pitcher.
[SPEAKER_01]: So burns McLean, love them, targeting them heavily, I think you should as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then kind of like that second tier of pitching prospects here,
[SPEAKER_01]: Now I go down to you got three of salvage going around pick 150 or so, see my Boba Chandler who just pitched on Thursday and looked phenomenal five innings one hit just the solo home run one walk eight k's guess at Lanta yeah it was Lanta's B line up for the most part only Michael Harris second was in there for predicted starters but he still looked really really good
[SPEAKER_01]: test so you MI is going around pick 165 on average and then you drop down a bit further in ADP.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's kind of like tier two for rookie pitchers, you know, the one that's kind of getting talked about the most right now is just savage just because
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be limited, you know, he hasn't pitched yet in spring training, he's got in like a simulated game, they're going to limit him to start the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, it's kind of going to be like reverse of what you usually see, a lot of times you'll see them kind of hold guys back later in the season, but Toronto and coming off a world series run this past year and with the Savage having a sizable innings jump from the previous year, they're going to limit him to start the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: that way he's still fresh and they don't that limit him later in the season into the postseason because they're going to be probably postseason bound yet again or at least in postseason contention at the very least unless something goes completely awry so they're going to kind of live in him in the front end so it's going to be a little frustrating you know April may you go to assume that those rains would be kind of a little bit looser
[SPEAKER_01]: and in May, June, July, as they kind of ramp him up, but he had a pretty big getting his job because 2024 is finally year at East Carolina, he had 93 and a third innings, and then he pitched 98 innings in the minor leagues last year, 14 more in the majors, and then how many do you have in the postseason here?
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't find it right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm trying to find it here.
[SPEAKER_01]: baseball reference they're they kind of switch around baseball references pages a little bit so it's come so kind of used to it here where is postseason pitching there it is he had another 27.2 innings there so he had a decent innings jump so I'm not surprised you're gonna live in him but I think he still gets 150 innings or so in the majors this year and I think this
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was right there, you know, one of the best strikeout rates in the minor leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen ever last year was over 40% K rate in the minors got those three starts in the majors with Toronto, he's a three pitch guy, four seam, splitter, slider, that splitter is really, really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I saw you say I would just twice live in AA and I was just, I haven't come
[SPEAKER_01]: probably Casey Mies.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that was 20 when I see Casey Mies.
[SPEAKER_01]: 2018, 2019, it was pre-COVID.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was when, you know, he was, you know, him in Matt Manning were two of the, you know, top five-partial projects in baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously, Mies' career hasn't been, you know, it's not okay, but this is his daughter didn't really pan out to being an elite splitter in majors, but.
[SPEAKER_01]: You savages is just phenomenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: It had a 11.5 inch against and a 57% win for eight.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it was only in three starts with Toronto, but it's one of the better splitters in baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: The fore seem to get hit around a little bit, 333 team betting up at Jigans, but you know, ding him up any, you know, only two excavates hit zero home runs allowed in those three starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, small sample, but, you know, maybe the whips a little higher for your savage,
[SPEAKER_01]: with him can kind of go be a little bit on the higher side at times.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, come in, kind of come and go.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I wonder if he's more like a 10% or so a walk rate guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe a 1, 2, 5 whip, you know, upper 1, 2's whip guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the circuit rate should be really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the ERA can be, you know, maybe mid three.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if he's evening at 35 ERA with a 30% K rate, 10% walk rate, and like a 1, 2, 5 whip, that's the top 50 arm over 50 or over 150 and excuse me, so.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not really shying away.
[SPEAKER_01]: People tend to be shying away now, and the 80 piece starting to fall a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: If he falls in that 160, 170 range, I'm still intrigued to get him as like my SP for or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: In drafts, above a channel, again, this went earlier today when I'm recording this on Thursday.
[SPEAKER_01]: Looks really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy that I've had a hard time ranking at times because, I mean, the upside is phenomenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff is really, really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Looking at upper 90s fast ball low 90s change up upper 80s slider mid 80s curve ball everything moves everything sharp and the change up in the slider both had a batting up against under a hundred last year in his 31 innings with Pittsburgh and after having a high walk rate in triple A.
[SPEAKER_01]: No ABS, kind of fact it didn't have that little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: He only had a 3.2% walk rate in the majors and the earlier this spring he had I think a four walk outing, then he looked really good in terms of the community control today.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a kind of all over the place with which and there.
[SPEAKER_01]: In general, I'm not terribly concerned with Commander control.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he's not going to be a pinpoint guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he's not going to be that 3.2% walk rate guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: We saw last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't think it's going to be like a double digit walk rate or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't even keep it relatively in check.
[SPEAKER_01]: He'll give you the strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the forseamer can miss bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's actually a really good with rate on the forseamer.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's got over 17 inches of induced vertical break there to go with that
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a slider, you know, sharp break on that, you know, one of the harder sliders and baseball eating them miles an hour, change up, you know, harder, change up as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Everything is on the high end of the velocity range with, uh, with Bubba Chandler.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's a getcha.
[SPEAKER_01]: Got some more value to you, Savage, and you see a 150-ish innings out of him, I think you see maybe even a better ERA from him, maybe not quite the same key rate as you savage, I think you savage while the higher one there, but overall when you kind of put everything together with them with the ratios and the key rate, I think you're going to see pretty some more value from you Savage.
[SPEAKER_01]: and Chandler this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I like both of them a lot again on the SP34 range.
[SPEAKER_01]: You want to take an upside, you know, there's a lot of upside there with both of those two and that's so you MI here.
[SPEAKER_01]: You turn it look pretty good in spring training.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, going, you know, kind of more of a three-pitch guy, you know, fastball, breaking ball, splitter, one of the better arms to come over from, from Japan, you know, in recent memory.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I was talking with Tim McLeod because, you know, Tim McLeod, whenever I have a question, but a player from, you know, Korea, Japan, whatever, he's my guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I mean,
[SPEAKER_01]: actively following, you know, Japan, Korea leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not like super invested, obviously when players like Murakami, Okamoto, in my, you know, coming over, you know, I know about them when not like as much as Tim does.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I always kind of go,
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, with Tim and ask him for his thoughts and, you know, what Roy stood out for me?
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, he, he raved about MI and he basically said, you know, think not Yamamoto but maybe go somewhere in between Yamamoto and Senga.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's no pretty darn good.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's still, you know, top 35 40 picture in my eyes.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe more.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's always hard to predict how these guys are going to come over because not only are they now pitching in the highest level of baseball facing the best hitters in the planet.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's also the change of country, the change of culture.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have to learn how to live in a completely different part of the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not easy to do.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't imagine going the other way, going over to live in Japan.
[SPEAKER_01]: That would be a lot of the adjustment there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And also trying to do your job at a high level at the same time.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not that easy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think to do something like this.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of that goes into it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So hard to say on M.I.
[SPEAKER_01]: but a lot of talent there is looking good in spring training, you know, last his last start was pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was like three innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: What was it two hits one runner something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: It looked pretty good last time out.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's another guy right in this range where, you know, maybe Houston limits him a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: But she'll give you 150 plus innings, probably decent ratios and above average strike up rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So another guy in that upside SP3 SP4 range, I think he's the one that has the least amount of buzz in that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you savage and channel both have more buzz than in my does, but I like him too, and he can break it up for a little bit cheaper than those two.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, after that tier, then you get another little drop down here, and you go into the 200s, you've got a couple of guys kind of going into that 250-ish range, give or take a little bit, you got Connally early with Boston, you got Logan Henderson with Milwaukee, and then you drop down even further outside the top 300, you're looking at Robbie Snelling, he's been kind of ticking up in ADP, and then you drop down even further outside the top 300, you're looking at Robbie Snelling, he's been kind of ticking up in ADP, and then you drop down even further outside the top 300, you're looking at Robbie Snelling, he's been kind of ticking up in ADP,
[SPEAKER_01]: You got Parker Messick with Cleveland, you got Andrew Painter with Philadelphia, you want to talk about the Boston duo here.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, again, early is going, you know, 2.52.62.70 in that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe a little earlier in Yahoo leagues, and then you got Peyton Toli, who he's behind in ADP, he's behind on the depth chart, I think.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Toli is the one where I'm not sure what we see from him this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just think we get 20 plus starts at an early.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even if Yohanovido gets at number 5 spot initially,
[SPEAKER_01]: The early so looks good.
[SPEAKER_01]: The velocities ticked up around a full mile an hour, the spring.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a very deep, deep, diverse arsenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: So like him and Peyton told me, even though I have totally ranked slightly higher in my prospect rankings, the gap is absolutely closed.
[SPEAKER_01]: And early as a guy that I have like more and more.
[SPEAKER_01]: every time I dig into him and I saw him in AA kind of like I was a june-ish last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He looked decent.
[SPEAKER_01]: I wasn't like blown away by him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I wasn't like, oh my god, early as I didn't leave pitching prospect, but he just continued to get better and better adding velocity, missing bats, keeping the walk rate in check, getting ground balls,
[SPEAKER_01]: really everything you look for here with a deep arsenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a six-pitch guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got the four-seamer, sinker, two different swiders, a slider, and a sweeper, curveball, and changeup.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he goes four-seemed curveball, changeup, or his top three, and then sinker, slider, and sweeper rounded out.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he can miss bats with really any of those offerings.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 39% went for it on the curve, 30% on the sinker.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's pretty high for a sinker, but 29% on the slider, 23% on the change and 29% on the foreseamer as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he gave us bats with any of his offerings.
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets ground balls.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's generally kept the walk rate in check.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, last year with Boston and four starts, it was 5.1%, with a 36.7% strike out rate in a 233 ERA 1009 whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was only 19 third inning, it's not a very big sample size, but I think you get 20 postarts out of Connally early.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you could see him push top 50 SP value if that is the case.
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, OV, it looks pretty good this spring.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how it's going to work out that they're good trade, Bale, this off season.
[SPEAKER_01]: That didn't happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that rotation is full right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're probably waiting on an injury or if OV, it'll faulters or Bale is a pitch well.
[SPEAKER_01]: but they all who looked bad in spring training early looked better in the WBC so I don't know I don't know what we're looking at here with early he's probably the SP6 right now but should be the first guy into that rotation when they need another arm and I like early a lot so it's kind of I'm not sure if I want to draft him right now but then 12 team Yahoo you may not have to
[SPEAKER_01]: But I got a definitely a keep an eye on because he could be an impact pitcher once he does get a shot to make some start to with Boston.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, I would say 20 to 23 start to work on a half him pegged for this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Peyton told me he's probably the SP seven on the depth chart here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I love tolly.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like everything about tolly.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's got great mustache, great personality, you know, the electric fastball.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of stuff to like about a patent tolly.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's already becoming a fan favorite in Boston after only making, you know, a handful of outings last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And his debut looked really, really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: He went toe to toe with Paul schemes, five and a
[SPEAKER_01]: Denny allowed five earned in three innings, two earned in two innings and they moved them to the bullpen after that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So overall, you know, just because of that five inning, blow up in three innings or five earned run, blow up, excuse me, and three innings, the overall year rate was 736 and 11 innings with a 191 whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
[SPEAKER_01]: not really a lot to take from that because that one blow up kind of really skewed things a bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: But look at the underlying metrics.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, it's very small data here in the major leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you get a 30% with rate only at 20.6% chase rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: But getting a lot of whiffs in the zone, which is really exciting to see.
[SPEAKER_01]: Payton told me had a, where to go a 25% in zone with rate,
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, yeah, he's primarily, you know, fastball cutter, occasional slider curve ball change up something, you know, we heard a lot here in Boston was that he was looking to be more diverse with his arsenal, you know, kind of work on the change up the curve ball, the slider a bit more so he's not so fastball heavy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's probably always to be his bread and butter and that's a really good fastball, you know, no doubt about it.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, average 96.7 on on the foreseamer pretty good with right on it, and about 17 inches I'm going to do is vertical break.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good fastball.
[SPEAKER_01]: always has been.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in fact, if he can get those second areas, the, you know, the off speeds, the breakers better, that's only going to strengthen his ability to turn into an impact arm for fantasy.
[SPEAKER_01]: So long term, I'm very much in on pay and totally.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure if I can be in or if I want to be in for 2026, just given
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how many starts he said give you is you're going to give him yet 10 or 12 starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy that I think's to be a pretty sought after waver wire fab target.
[SPEAKER_01]: At some point this season when he does get a chance to enter that rotation.
[SPEAKER_01]: Whereas of right now he's seventh on the depth chart so it's hard to hard to target him outside of deeper formats where you can stash him and wait for him to get the call as but I believe you see Peyton totally start the year
[SPEAKER_01]: in AAA, Worcester, and probably constantly early as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're in the vicinity of Worcester, Massachusetts, you know, go see some Wussox games.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to say the POSOx.
[SPEAKER_01]: Some Wussox games because you probably get in some early and some totally early in the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's a pretty good duo there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Logan Henderson, the other guy in that mid to hundreds range, uh, I like Logan Henderson, not super high on him in general, just because I've never been a guy that really goes after these.
[SPEAKER_01]: super heavy, change up guys that real rely on that change up, but, you know, Henderson's a guy that I still think could be a solid arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not thinking to be, you know, I'm not as high in him as I am on totally or earlier anything like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But,
[SPEAKER_01]: this year, he's a little risky just because he's still kind of behind, you know, everyone else in camp.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's at that elbow issue going on.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't know if he's ever ready for the start of the season at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's going to.
[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't really seen
[SPEAKER_01]: any concrete reports on, you know, when he might be ready, but it sounds like he's not going to be ready for the start of the season from everything I have seen.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so is he coming in, giving a, you know, 25 starts, 26 starts, probably misses maybe the first month of the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was still kind of in wait and see mode there.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was just to see kind of what the end result is with that with the elbow hook we heal is up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So some uncertainty there, which really is pushing down
[SPEAKER_01]: the intrigue and the ADP on Logan Henderson.
[SPEAKER_01]: But is he so worth taking a later on upside-of-fly on and redrawflakes, maybe?
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're drafting 300 to 350 players in that range, I won't be opposed to taking an upside shot on Logan Henderson, especially if you can throw him if you have deeper benches, or if you have my outspots, you know, that's fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: Honestly, because I think even in the 25 starts this year, he could provide solid value.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, his last year, he looked really good in his five starts with Milwaukee.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was kind of up and down.
[SPEAKER_01]: They moved him from Major League to Triple A and back again, but in those five starts, 178 ERA, 0.99 whip, 33.3% strike a rate, 8.1% walk a rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: XERA was basically double, but again, he's really fastballed, a change of heavy, and that's just a profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have not been super into in the past, you know, been burned by the
[SPEAKER_01]: know, the Gavin stones of the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I kind of shy away a bit from this profile in general, but if you can get out of that 350 range, which you might be able to given this injury on certain new with him right now, and you can afford to stash him or throw him on the IL for a month or whatever ends up being.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm not, you know, I'm not opposed to a Logan Henderson in Redraff Lakes, but you know, a 12 team Yahoo probably should leave him on the on the way for wire to start the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's go to the 380 P guys here.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're looking at Andrew Painter, Robby Snelling, Parker Messick in this range.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Jonah Tongs been following.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was in 300s.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now he's going outside, you know, top 400 or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's given his uncertainty.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Jonah Tongs, he's intriguing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely Christian Scott.
[SPEAKER_01]: Also pretty intriguing.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that medsortation is very deep, though.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's deep with a lot of guys that don't have the greatest durability either.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Sean Manaya has had his injury issues, his v-lose down right now in spring clay homes is miss time, go to his saying guys, miss time, David Peterson is miss time, but right now they have a six main rotation.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, it's kind of hard to project how many innings we get from Jonathan.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Christian Scott, or probably the SP seven and eight respectively right now, and they're both have plenty of intrigue.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm both, you know, I'm fairly high in both these guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they will be like mid rotation, you know, SP three guys in general.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just not, I'm just unsure what you get from them in terms of volume this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So more guys, just to keep on your radar, throw on your watch list.
[SPEAKER_01]: For when they might get a chance to enter the rotation symbol with Peyton, totally.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, this two guys is hard to, you know, just recommend drafting them outside of super deep formats.
[SPEAKER_01]: But two guys, I'm really intrigued by, well actually, I'm, all three of these guys have some level of intrigue for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably stelling, parkro-mastic, and Andrew Painter.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the one I'm actually intrigued by the most this year is Robby Stelling.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the chance he might be able to break camp.
[SPEAKER_01]: with Miami, if not, I do think he's up for 25 plus stars this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Nice bounce back year for snowing last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 515 ERA in 2024, which really deflated all of that prospect's shine.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had built up in 2023.
[SPEAKER_01]: But in 2025 between double A and triple A, 251 ERA in 25 starts, 136 innings, 111 whip, 166 strikeouts to 39 walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: And triple A, he was absolutely dominant.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he was on another level in triple A.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 127 ERA, 0 9 9 whip, 81k to 17 walks in 63 and 2 thirds innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: phenomenal in the international league for Jacksonville there, and now he's knocking firmly on the door to the majors with Miami.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, I think he gives it 25 plus starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if that is the case, he's going to be worth drafting.
[SPEAKER_01]: So back in the top 300, I think snowing is a really good upside play in that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you look at the rotation.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sanio Contra, Yuri Perez, it's pretty good one too, it's risky but it gets a good one too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then you got the other three spots currently occupied by Chris Paddock, Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's still some intrigue with Max Meyer, but Patrick, Garrett, and not really.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Patrick still has one of the best baseball images of all time from his debut in the Cowboy Hat.
[SPEAKER_01]: I love that image.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's the top five baseball image of my lifetime or at least of the last five years, I'll say.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe my life ends a little bit much, but I love that image, but in terms of the picture, I don't really like Chris Patrick, that much anymore.
[SPEAKER_01]: or Garrett, or, you know, I admire again a little bit of intrigue there, but my point is back to the rotation shouldn't be that hard to break into for Robbie Staling.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you see him make, I think Staling makes the third most starts on Miami this year, behind Sandy and Yuri.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he makes more starts than Paddock, Myers, and Garrett.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, upside flyer, I'm actually pretty high on selling.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a top 10, pitching prospect for me right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the guy that I think could be one of the top rookie arms of 2026.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not as high as those top two tier guys, but let's say those top two tiers and that being the top five rookie pictures this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you can make a strong case for Stanley M. number six.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's definitely a good possibility he winds up as one of these, you know, six, seven, eight best rookie pictures of the 20, 26 season and then another guy from Miami that needs to be brought up right now at Thomas White.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's more of a midseason ETA guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's one of the most talented pitching prospects in all baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff is nasty, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: Fastball velocity mid to upper 90s.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a really good fastball.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's in a really good change.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a really good slider.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you can make a case that he has three plus or better offering.
[SPEAKER_01]: That he can just strike anybody out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like last year, he had a whopping 145 strikeouts in 89 and two thirds innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is insane.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is a 38.6% strikeup rate, but the downside.
[SPEAKER_01]: is that he also had a 13.6% walk rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's a bit of a, there's a little bit of risk here with white.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, phenomenal upside.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I actually know it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like one comp that I have for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, everyone knows me knows a hate doing comp.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I usually suck at them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they're risky and oftentimes overblown.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this one kind of, I think fits.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a high, high comp.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I see a lot of similarities here, like a young Blake's now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully the durability isn't the same as snel if we get more of white throughout his career than snel.
[SPEAKER_01]: But just to God that has filthy, filthy stuff, little bit of a higher walk rate but can strike everybody out.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what I kind of see with Thomas White right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still very young.
[SPEAKER_01]: He just turned 21 late last season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he'll pitch the entire season at 21 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: He turns 22 late September.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's a guy that's probably up mid season, giving him a 12 to 15 starts with Miami.
[SPEAKER_01]: It might be a little bit of higher ratios, but I think the K rate will be phenomenal.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe, again, maybe a little bit of higher whip, but this is one of the most dominant guys in the minor leagues right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I got that could easily overpower hitters right off the bat.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a hard guy to kind of square up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So hitters will have to adjust when they see Thomas White because he is a tough at bat.
[SPEAKER_01]: 65 lefty with that stuff, it's just really tough to face.
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, the walk rate being a little higher probably keeps the whip higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there'll be some ups and downs from why I'm pretty certain on that, but the ups you're going to be pretty fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: So midseason guy could be like a top 50 SP once he's up.
[SPEAKER_01]: but just be ready for some maybe some peaks and values of that walk rate doesn't improve this year interpolate before he does get the call.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a couple good good rookies there for Miami the season and another rookie and Cleveland not nearly as exciting as all of these aims I've talked about.
[SPEAKER_01]: Parker Messick absolutely has to be on your radar.
[SPEAKER_01]: He looks pretty good with Cleveland down the stretch last year, seven starts, 272 ERA, 131 whip in 39 and 23rds innings, 3.6% walkerate and a 23% strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Always been a guy that keeps the walkerate in check.
[SPEAKER_01]: There have been a big strikeout rate guy though, only had one offering with a Wifri above 30% last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was
[SPEAKER_01]: He does a good job at keeping the ball on the ground, limiting hard contact, limiting the home runs allowed.
[SPEAKER_01]: He knew a lot of four home runs last year in 39 and two, thirds and things.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's pretty solid there.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just, I don't know if you're going to get the great carry.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why his value isn't, you know, like top 200.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's appropriately ranked in like that, or ADP wise in that 325 range, just given the fact that he's probably more of a middle-of-the-road carey guy, but I think he can give you a solid enough ratio.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he can give you like a like a 3, 5, 3, 6, 3, 7, ERA, you know, a 1, 3 whip, keep the walk rate in check.
[SPEAKER_01]: And give you a, you know, a key rate that's around the garage and give you a run a strike up printing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's definitely a possibility.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, not like a super sexy upside player or anything like that, but just a decent back end guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's definitely what he can be.
[SPEAKER_01]: So and just gotta keep on your radar later on your drafts or maybe God, uh, running on your watch list that you might be able to pick up early in the seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think there's a lot of buzz around
[SPEAKER_01]: Parker Messick right now, but definitely a decent arm there.
[SPEAKER_01]: The other guy going right near him in that early 300 range is Andrew Painter.
[SPEAKER_01]: Andrew Painter, he's not quite the same picture he was a few years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, yeah, no doubt right, he had, you know, major injury and nearly, you know, two, two and a half.
[SPEAKER_01]: Whatever, I think how many years off he had between starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: There was a lot though, at least two years between starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: the upside maybe it's not quite as high as it was but this is still a very talented arm with some good breakers a good change up but the fastball it's not quite there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean below still good on the fastball but it's not quite as, you know, lively as it was pre-engineered not quite as sharp as it was.
[SPEAKER_01]: Pre-injury command isn't quite there.
[SPEAKER_01]: At least compared to what it was a few years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm not banking on him being a stud arm right away, but this is a guy that is going to be in the rotation to start the season due to Wheeler being behind schedule, due to thoracic outlet syndrome.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably ready a month-ish into the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think at that point, you might see painter get bumped out.
[SPEAKER_01]: of the Philadelphia rotation, but the other back end guy right now for them is Tyja and Walker.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, he's obviously not great.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think it all depends on how painter looks and they if he looks at least fine, they try to keep him in the rotation and then bump walk her out.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they don't have a D if they walk her, throw him in the pen as a swing man, something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it depends on how painter looks.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's in that late round upside range for your 12 team Yahoo leagues, where you draft in the vicinity of 300 guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you want to take an upside play on him, I'd rather go after a painter than Henderson this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's more upside there.
[SPEAKER_01]: At that point in your draft, you're probably looking more for the upside guy than the safer guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Painter fine target in that 300 to 325 ADP range, so those are really the guys you're looking at this year, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: At least to draft, you know a few other names here, you know, deeper leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Luis Morales, he's going to be in the rotation for the athletics.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's a fine, deeper lead play, the ADP is more in the 400 range.
[SPEAKER_01]: Burn and Sprote is intriguing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm more intrigued this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He looks really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: So far in spring training, just like watching him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He looks pretty impressive, but he's not going to be in that rotation to start the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Though maybe he does sneak in, especially if Henderson is not ready for the start of the season, which again looks like it'll be the case, so maybe you see Sprote sneak in, so Sprote does sneak in.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's worth a late run upside play, and I like him in general more than I like Logan Henderson.
[SPEAKER_01]: Definitely keep an eye on sproats and a couple more guys here, a ret louder.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think could be in that rotation earlier than expected due to a hundred greens injury.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's one, two, maybe look at in deeper formats.
[SPEAKER_01]: Same thing with Mick Abel in Minnesota.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's actually looked really, really good this spring.
[SPEAKER_01]: Always has had really good stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just dinner was able to command it super well, but he's looking better in that area.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, limiting the walks, creating his offerings bit better.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Mick Abel, then not a 12 team Yahoo target, but a guy, deeper league play, yes.
[SPEAKER_01]: And a guy to keep on your radar for short, because the upside is still there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now a few of the guys of note to throw on your watch list, so I think we could see at some point this season that would be worth,
[SPEAKER_01]: looking at in fantasy leagues, Elmer Rodriguez and Carlos Agrange with the Yankees, both of them are really exciting, especially LaGrange, who's his up there throwing 102 miles an hour right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you see George Classen at some point in this year with the Angels Hunter Barco,
[SPEAKER_01]: with the Pittsburgh Pirates gauge jump with the athletics.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he makes 15 to 20 starts with them this year, Drake Gibson with Baltimore, you know, Quinn Matthews with St. Louis Brody Hopkins with Tampa Bay, and then the duo with the White Sox, Noah Schultz, and Hagen Smith.
[SPEAKER_01]: So just a few guys to keep an eye on this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And one more, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: Luis Parales with Washington.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he actually moves into the bullpen and gets some saves later this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So good speculative kind of dart throw for saves.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe that doesn't happen, but the stuff is nasty durability also kind of nasty.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's going to combination to put a guy in the bullpen, but
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see what the Nats do with him, but again, a lot of exciting pitching prospects this year to either draft in 12 team leagues, some deeply guys, plenty of mid-season guys as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of great targets here, but that should wrap up this episode again if you miss the hitting version of this, that was episode 442, so he missed that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Go back and check that out and I'll be back with you again next week with a couple of fun episodes.
[SPEAKER_01]: But until then, everyone take care.