WEBVTT

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[SPEAKER_03]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.

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[SPEAKER_03]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.

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[SPEAKER_03]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.

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[SPEAKER_02]: What's up, everyone?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed Podcast brought to you by Rotaboller.

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[SPEAKER_02]: This is episode 438.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you for joining me.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm your host Eric Cross.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And the show is at Toolshed Pod.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Kicking off pitching week here on the Toolshed with our pitching prospect rankings.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Have a great guest with me to break it all down.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He is a writer at Fantasy Pro's creator of F scores, father of five, building his own little starting nine right there, and host of the prospect warehouse podcast, Mr. Tim Canak at Fantasy A Spall on Twitter.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Tim, how's it going, man?

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[SPEAKER_02]: Good, good.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Happy to be with you here today.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're recording before the Super Bowl.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So exciting stuff here right before the Super Bowl.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, like what is there better to do on the biggest football day of the year than talk baseball, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, yeah, it's either it's either pre game the Super Bowl right now and just get wasted or it is talk a little baseball first and then watch the football game.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I'll absolutely be watching it in a few hours.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's about 250 and or so on the East Coast right now as we start recording, games in four or four and a half hours, whatever, I'm a Patreist fan.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I'll have rooting interest and I'll have to be, when this episode, you would listen to it tomorrow.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'll either be very excited or very pissed off, one of the two.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We will find out, but always excited to talk some baseball and especially some pitching prospects because

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[SPEAKER_02]: the pitching profit ranks right now are incredibly, incredibly exciting.

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[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of elite talents and a lot of which will be, you know, I've already debuted or will be debuting here in 2026.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So a good group of prospects talk about for we get into all of that though, the usual house keeping.

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[SPEAKER_02]: If you enjoy the podcast, please rate and review.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You can find all of my content either on

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[SPEAKER_02]: And you got to check out all the great contents over on Rotable or with Rotable was premium pass.

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[SPEAKER_02]: If you sign up today, you get 30% off using promo code new.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There's so much great content on there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: What again, all my content is over there on Rotable or

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[SPEAKER_02]: and you've got Nick Mariano's rankings, you've got aerial co-ins, ATC projections, so many great tools, some of the tools you can be using right now, you know, get some mock drafts, and you can do that over on rotobalry, you've got live draft assistant, you can sync your teams, get custom rankings, so many great things over there are rotobalry.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So check that out over at rotobalry.com slash MLB, and again, 30% off using promo code new.

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[SPEAKER_02]: All right, let's go into our rankings here with the top 10, actually before we do so, I want to ask you a quick question here, you know, Tim, because as we know pitching is very, very risky, you mean we see all these names, you know, have injuries usually early in their career.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So it's actually kind of rare when you see a big name, not have some sort of injury risk attached to them, but given the elevated risk of pitching projects especially, how do you approach, you know,

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[SPEAKER_01]: it's someone pitching prospects or just how do you approach them in general in your dynasty leagues are you a little bit you know more risk adverse and go we're hitting prospects just how do you approach them in dyes and leaks them it's like especially for relief pitchers i feel like and i don't even talk about relief pitchers like who really really cares about relief pitchers and dyes but for for starters i definitely see them as like shorter term ads right like of course if you're like if i'm like building a farm

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to be very heavy on hitters earlier and kind of just focus on pitching death.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You get a lot of these like pop-up pitchers who come up and are really good and also there's a ton of value like Brian Wu who was he as a prospect right like nobody was really talking about him until like right before he was promoted and then I was like whoa

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[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, where this guy come from?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And he's like a top 10 starter.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I feel like there's a lot of starters like that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like even like Spencer Strider before he popped up, like he was kind of seen as like a back end, like top 100, if anything, even back then like 150 type prospect and then comes on and boom, all of a sudden, just a beast.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So in like, unless it's like some of these guys where there's just like ridiculous, obvious talent,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I'm kind of more of a quantity over quality guy a lot of the times with starting pictures because you have to have a give and take in privacy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So like if I'm going to focus on like higher end prospects, I want those to be the hairs and then I'll just like take my darts with pictures.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, because that's what it is a lot of the time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's like because it could be an injury that takes them out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Or it could be like if a guy, if a,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Prospect pitcher gets Tommy John they have like no value when they're hurt like it's very low value like we just I will talk about so core later But like like that's a whole thing right now, but there's a lot of guys where just like Braxton Bragg was one of the better pitcher pitchers earlier last year has to get Tommy John I just did a 13 draft and Braxton Bragg was like one of the last guys picked in that so it's like if you have a Tommy John if you're a pitcher of Tommy John use kind of fall

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[SPEAKER_01]: face to the earth for a little bit until you come back.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, it's it's a little bit of dark throwing with some of those guys and I prefer not to waste my high darts, my best darts on pictures when I could, you know, get a really good hitter that's more likely to hit than the picture.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm pretty similar in my approach with pitching prospects.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I use them more as trade capital than anything else.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I will, you know, I'll try to get some upside guys.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, that aren't a high price tag.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, when there may be I can low a or even, you know, the complex level or whatever.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And then, you know, hopefully if, you know, couple of them turn into, you know, top 100 guys or whatever, then I usually, you know, look to trade them off for, you know, maybe an MLB piece or whatever.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I definitely focus more on hitting prospects.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I've always kind of gone with the rough like 70, 30 rule or, you know, if I have, you know, 10 prospects, you know, 7 and then we're going to be hitters and then all three upside pitchers or something like that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But,

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's it's so risky and we've seen even like if you were sitting with, you know, like like think it back to like three four years ago and say you had like Ricky Tidamin and Daniel Espino, you probably were a static back then look at it now.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, then this kind of goes to show, I mean, you can say that with a lot of other guys too.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I use them more as trade capital and yeah, I don't like, I use you don't trade for a top pitching prospect.

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[SPEAKER_02]: If I draft a guy, whether it be F like PD or I get them when they're, you know, price tag is a lot lower and they turn into one great.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, you won't see me like, you know, trading for, you know, it's, I'm not going to be trading right now for a Robby selling for the most part or something like that or a Jonah Tong.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'll try to get these guys when they're not quite as high of a price tag.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's not perfect science, but pitching is very, very finicky.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I love talking about the, you know, the, you know, approach behind us, some wing pitching prospects in dynasty.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Let's get into the rankings now, top 10.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So are those top 10 guys for you, Tim?

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[SPEAKER_01]: I've got Chase Burns number one and, you know, talking about pushing guys down, he's still my number three prospect, that's how I like Chase Burns.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Nolan McLean is two, Thomas White is three, Trace Savage is four, Robbie Snelling is five, Kate Anderson is six, Peyton Toli is seven, Jonah Tong is eight, Bubba Chandler nine, and Andrew Painter 10.

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[SPEAKER_02]: All right.

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[SPEAKER_02]: For me, I also have Chase Burns won and I was something you out there like, oh, he graduated.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you know, he did when he looked at, you know, Travis time, but I only go by 130 and 50.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's because I think a lot of fantasy leagues are going to be 130 and 50.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I just make it easy and not to try to figure out service time.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That's the pain in the butt.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So chase burns at one for me.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I also have McLean at two.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think they're pretty.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I want to say universal but close to it the top two pitching prosecuted if you include burns in the mix and I have them at three and four overall in my top 500 respectively.

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[SPEAKER_02]: 3-5 for me is trayy a savage Thomas White and Bubba Chandler 6-10.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I got Jonah Tong, Kate Anderson, Peyton Totally Seth Hernandez and Robbie Snelling at 10.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And all those guys are within my top 50 overall.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That's telling that 45 overall for me right now.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I got one more of my top 50 that we'll get to

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[SPEAKER_02]: And a little bit, but let's start with that dynamic duo at the top of Chase Burns and Nolan McLean.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Both came up and had pretty exciting debut's McLean 206 ERA104 whip in eight starts with a 30% key rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: eight and a half percent walk rate that was in 48 innings for the mats that he is going to go over eligibility in his first start of the season.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Chase Burns in 43 and a third ratio is a little higher 457 and 132 but all of the ERA indicators were you know over a run lower, putting a 348 X ERA

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[SPEAKER_02]: I see we 27.1 K minus walk rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That is just elite elite 67 strikeouts in just 43 and a third innings.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So both of these guys phenomenal arm talents in enormous upside.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But where do you think, you know, obviously there's being their fault first full season here in 26 to him now where do you think Burns and McLean end up like rising to like in ranking say do you think these are two guys that we're looking at you know, maybe even next year as no doubt aces for fantasy baseball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, uh, I would almost view Chase Burns is that now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I have him as a top 15 starter for this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Just for a redraft.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And for Dynasty, he's my number six starting pitcher in Dynasty.

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[SPEAKER_01]: McLean, I'm a little bit lower on.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have the same upside that burns does for strikeouts.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I've got him at 12.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I like for Dynasties.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's like obviously like if I'm at 12, I mean, that I think he's going to be a fantasy ace sometime within the next couple of years here, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I love both of these guys very different reasons.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So completely different type players, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like Chase Burns is almost a two-pitch pitcher.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I guess against like against RIDC, he really is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I guess RIDC through his fastball 50 foot, five percent of the time,

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[SPEAKER_01]: What does that leave at least 1% of other pitches?

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[SPEAKER_01]: So against RIDs, you really is a two-page guy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Against Lefty, you see pulls up the change up and throws that like 10% of the time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But as far as like pitch values, like that slider might be the best slider in baseball already.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And that fastball is probably like a top five fastball too.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So you're looking at like two elite pitches here for chase burns.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Can you get buy on two pitches?

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's the question, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like will he be able to get buy full time as a more or less like two-page guy if he doesn't, you know, like, I guess it gets the chain, you know, I guess left he's yeah, it changed up a 10% maybe he develops it and can throw more.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He probably should get a third pitch that he can throw against varieties as he's developing, like he's still young, so there's still time for that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But what we saw from him in the small sample sizes are already really elite and like this is a crazy stat right here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to pump Nick Pollux mistake rate stat right here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So he was 12 overall in mistake rate 2.6%.

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[SPEAKER_01]: For my rookie pitcher, which mistake rate is like, you know, how often are they throwing like an like a bad pitch in the zone is what that is basically like how often are going to leave a hanger in the zone or whatever and it's like how does a rookie do that because like a lot of people are concerned about with chase burns, especially in great Americans ballpark is potentially like him giving up home runs, but like if he he's already not leaving mistakes in the zone as a rookie that's pretty insane.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that is really, really exciting chase burns.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, yeah, he is me, you know, Spencer Strider vibes.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think that, you know, comparison is pretty easy, you know, two-pitch guy, you know, coming up, but two dominant pitches.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he had, again, 67 strikeouts, 62 of those, either on the Four Seamer or Slider with four of the change up and one on the curve ball.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But a curve ball overall, I can you mention, those are sub 1% usage rate, pretty much on that, you know.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Love the slider, I mean, I...

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[SPEAKER_02]: I agree.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's one of the sliders in baseball for Seamor ever's 98.7.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Everything's hard with Chase Burns.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Even the change up average 90, one miles an hour.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I was actually decent pitch when he used it, 182 batting up against 30% with Ray.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So decent third offering there against lefties, but I agree.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I would love to see him at any third pitch against against righties, whether it be maybe he goes with that curve ball or maybe

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[SPEAKER_02]: or even use the change up more.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Whatever it may be, I would just love to see a third offering against varieties, even 10% is giving me something out so they're not sitting on just for seam and slider, though, again elite pitches, but on those days where one of those two ain't working for whatever reason, as we've seen with strider, you know, it can turn, you know, get kind of ugly.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So that's the one to share and I have with burns, you know, obviously the ballpark isn't the greatest,

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[SPEAKER_02]: the stuff is just so elite and like you look at the similar pictures to him based on vila on movement on savon.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Three of them are Jacob DeGrom hunter-grain and Dylan sees.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So that's a pretty darn good there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And with McLean, I mean, you know, in fact that he's already kind of where he is in both, you know, prospect and dinosaur ranks after really having 25 be his first full year of solely

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[SPEAKER_02]: focusing on pitching because he was a two-way guy through 2024.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's pretty impressive.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And he gets plenty of ground balls.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know, burns goes up a little too much contact in the air, which can be a little bit of concern at times, but the cleaning gets plenty of ground balls.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, maybe doesn't have a quite the bad missing that's

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[SPEAKER_02]: Burnstas, but still a pretty darn good bat miss or in his own right.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I have them currently 13 and 14 in my dynasty rankings, I think they're in a big, you know, tier 3 glob or tier 2 glob really, you know, like Freddy Pralta, Logan Webb, and a lot of those got cold riggins.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's a pretty fun tier, but they're already right up in there being Brookies this year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I think they both can be top 10.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Dynasty arms long term and yeah, I don't think the throw on that ace term very often.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I think it gets thrown a long way too lightly these days, but I think McLean and Burns are going to be guys that we're looking at as finesse aces for a long time and those are the two that I feel really good about saying that about in terms of prospects right now, there are a few others that you know could be or high into is like that you savages the whites the chambers of the world, but if you're looking at guys that I feel like really 100% confident about using the ace tag for

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's Burns and McLean, but next guy here, probably the top guy, or my top pitching processor that has yet to debut because what six of my top A to have already debuted, but Thomas White has not, but probably will at some point later on this summer, he is coming off a phenomenal year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: in the upper minors got up to AAA for two starts, 10 starts in AA and 9 in high A overall had a 231 ERA and 145 straightouts in just 89 and two thirds innings, but despite having that elite K8,

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[SPEAKER_02]: which was 38.6% and that's just ridiculous right there and having a 231 ERA, the whip 18 a little bit higher than you'd imagine for a 231 ERA, about as largely due to a 13 and a half percent walk rate, which is for me when you get above like 11 to 12, I get pretty concerned.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, the stuff is elite here with Thomas White, Tim, but are you concerned with the kind of

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[SPEAKER_02]: he had this past year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: How concerning is that for you long-term when valuing a Thomas White?

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, not really.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of funny because Doc and I on one of our podcasts, we were actually talking about Carson, Bill Brandt, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And we're like, man, Bill Brandt's control.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, like, if you'll ever figure it out because his success is going to depend on the control.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then Doc was like, you know, it's funny.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thomas White has a higher walk rate than Carson Millbrant and I was like, what's no way and I looked in it's true and I was just like, wow, I didn't even realize because if you just look at his came minus walk, he has so many strikeouts, if you're only looking at came on his walk, he won't even notice that his walk rate is as high as it is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that's a very good question that you're bringing up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I'll tell you, I'm lucky enough that I've seen Thomas White live a number of times because I live in Jupiter, Florida, which is where the Florida Marlins Abal team is located and that's also where they have their spring training.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I've seen Thomas White coming up here for a number of years and I've been able to see his progression.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like when I saw him, this last spring, I was like, wow.

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[SPEAKER_01]: he's like way better than when I was seeing him in Abel.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Now that I'm seeing him in spring, he's just so much better.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He had improved a lot just over that one year.

18:38.035 --> 18:40.338
[SPEAKER_01]: And I get to see him this spring now.

18:40.398 --> 18:41.039
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's going to be fun.

18:41.079 --> 18:45.285
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be able to report to you guys like how much better he's looking.

18:45.726 --> 18:48.550
[SPEAKER_01]: But since I've seen him live so many times,

18:48.530 --> 18:49.871
[SPEAKER_01]: watching him in person.

18:50.032 --> 18:52.754
[SPEAKER_01]: I had no, I had no concerns about his command.

18:52.774 --> 18:57.459
[SPEAKER_01]: And I always like sip behind home, kind of, I'm going to try to get like an off-home view so I can kind of see the strike zone.

18:57.980 --> 19:01.303
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I feel like his stuff, he knows where he's throwing it.

19:01.663 --> 19:12.915
[SPEAKER_01]: Like if he has a high walk rate, it's busy doing that from like a Blake's knowledge perspective where it's like he's just walking a guy because like he's trying to, he's trying to strike dudes out.

19:13.376 --> 19:17.760
[SPEAKER_01]: And if he's walking the guys, just because he's not going to give him a good pitch to hit.

19:18.398 --> 19:33.977
[SPEAKER_01]: his control like we have we always have this difference between commander control right I feel like he has way better command than he does than he has control like I feel like the pictures are going where he wants them to go and yeah maybe he's walking guys but I feel like it's just a part of his game he's like doesn't care

19:33.957 --> 19:55.830
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, okay, there's a walk like I didn't give up at home or I'm going to just strike out the next dude in the walk won't matter like it's just like a little bit of Blake's smell mindset when he's attacking these haters just kind of I feel like I've watched him a bunch of times I've never felt like he's he feels like oh, you know, like I don't have command of this like the ball's not going where I want I feel like he's part of his strategy or whatever watching it.

19:56.722 --> 20:14.969
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and when you have a 172 batting average against, that kind of helps offset the higher walk rate a little bit, you know, and like a 118 whip is still not bad by any means, but and he had a 103 batting average against in Triple A. Yeah, it was two starts, but it just shows like how good the stuff is.

20:14.989 --> 20:17.312
[SPEAKER_02]: Like this is three plus pitches.

20:17.292 --> 20:18.334
[SPEAKER_02]: with Thomas White.

20:18.374 --> 20:23.501
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's got the really good fastball mid 90s in touch higher, good riding life on that.

20:24.022 --> 20:36.561
[SPEAKER_02]: And then you know, might have the best, you know, combination of secondaries in the minor leagues or at least in that discussion with his slider and his change up, both being this elite elite bat missing offerings.

20:37.122 --> 20:46.135
[SPEAKER_02]: See, I just as long as he doesn't go worse than

20:46.115 --> 21:06.165
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I usually don't like those guys, but when they have the bat missing upside like the elite strikeout rate potential that Thomas White has, you know, I can live with that because he looked at he has the last two years 265 strikeouts in 185 and two thirds innings.

21:06.145 --> 21:24.055
[SPEAKER_02]: that is just ridiculously elite and that is a year right below three each year we'll making 21 starts each year and I will being you know pretty young for every level you know he was at he was just 20 and the last year he didn't turn 21 until the tail end of September.

21:24.495 --> 21:28.542
[SPEAKER_02]: So basically 21 this entire year again lately debut

21:29.095 --> 21:40.039
[SPEAKER_02]: At some point, this summary of Miami's opened up a couple of rotation spots there, selling probably first in the pecking order, but white probably a month or two behind him and it has much higher upside.

21:40.079 --> 21:46.193
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you can keep the walkerate somewhat in check, I think Thomas White has, you know.

21:46.173 --> 21:50.198
[SPEAKER_02]: elite, you know, ace upside as well for that Miami team.

21:50.218 --> 21:54.022
[SPEAKER_01]: So here's one additional note on whites command here.

21:54.303 --> 21:58.267
[SPEAKER_01]: On the F scores, we have a 104 control, so it's still above average.

21:59.048 --> 22:03.574
[SPEAKER_01]: And when we're doing the F scores, the algo is based off of individual pitches.

22:03.774 --> 22:07.238
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not based off of like a walk rate, like are you walking guys?

22:07.698 --> 22:11.623
[SPEAKER_01]: It's based off of strikes versus balls, like on an

22:11.603 --> 22:17.112
[SPEAKER_01]: So like the second half last year, he had a 52% strike rate and only a 38% ball rate.

22:17.693 --> 22:20.457
[SPEAKER_01]: The difference is going to be balls and play there if you're doing the math on that.

22:20.918 --> 22:25.405
[SPEAKER_01]: So 52% strike rate for like non balls and play is actually pretty high.

22:26.807 --> 22:27.068
[SPEAKER_01]: Awesome.

22:27.088 --> 22:33.578
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's and it was worth he had a 9.2% walk rate in 2024, which is not that at all.

22:33.912 --> 22:41.662
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, Thomas White, just absolute stud arm here, and be a Rolex head to see him up with the Miami Marlins later this season.

22:42.723 --> 22:50.053
[SPEAKER_02]: The other name we wanted to talk about here in the top 10, because I feel like out of all the elite like top 10 pitching prospect arms right now.

22:50.614 --> 23:03.210
[SPEAKER_02]: This guy, I'm seeing a pretty wide range of opinions on him, just been given back to he dominated in the minor leagues last year or got up to the majors

23:03.190 --> 23:07.577
[SPEAKER_02]: underwhelming starts, and that's Jonah Tong with the New York Mets.

23:08.299 --> 23:12.285
[SPEAKER_02]: In the minor leagues, mostly AA, a couple triple A starts mixed in.

23:12.345 --> 23:20.018
[SPEAKER_02]: He had a 143 ERA and a 0.92 whip.

23:19.998 --> 23:24.289
[SPEAKER_02]: with a 10.6% walkerate and a 40.5% strike at rate.

23:24.771 --> 23:28.059
[SPEAKER_02]: I actually him and your savage had the two highest strike rates.

23:28.159 --> 23:34.075
[SPEAKER_02]: I think since I think Grayson Rodriguez and Daniela Spino both had like 41 percent back in 20.

23:34.325 --> 23:35.707
[SPEAKER_02]: 21, I believe it was.

23:35.787 --> 23:54.595
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, two of the highest strikeout race we've seen in the minor leagues in the last half decade, but then he got to the majors and in five starts with the meds had a 771 ERA, though the ERA indicators were mostly in the force there, but a 771 ERA in a 177 whip.

23:54.575 --> 23:58.742
[SPEAKER_02]: with a 10.3% walk rate and a 25.3% straight gut rate.

23:59.583 --> 24:08.037
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's kind of buried a little bit on the immense, you know, rotational depth chart, you know, though, you know, a couple guys being treated the way definitely helps.

24:08.057 --> 24:09.379
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, it's a approach out of town now.

24:09.459 --> 24:09.900
[SPEAKER_02]: So,

24:09.880 --> 24:15.967
[SPEAKER_02]: One less guy he has to contend with, but right now looking like he probably is back in Triple A.

24:15.987 --> 24:26.460
[SPEAKER_02]: Start at the year, but Tim given the huge dominant minor league season we saw from Jonathan, and then the rough five starts with the meds.

24:26.480 --> 24:31.486
[SPEAKER_02]: How are you valuing his 20-25 season, obviously you're still high at him, you have him top 10.

24:31.986 --> 24:35.230
[SPEAKER_02]: But what are your thoughts here on Jonathan for this year and beyond?

24:35.733 --> 24:39.260
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's a tough one for me because I, this is another do that I've seen in person.

24:39.280 --> 24:51.063
[SPEAKER_01]: I saw him back when he was in St. Lucy and Abel and when I saw him, I was like, I don't know how he's going to make this command work because like he was kind of when the start that I saw them, he was like pretty kind of all over the place.

24:51.684 --> 24:54.349
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, the fastball was just dominant because

24:54.329 --> 25:10.093
[SPEAKER_01]: when you're throwing with that kind of IDB at that high rate in low a like it's just that's going to play still but yeah the minor league stats were phenomenal like just completely ridiculous across the board the pitch level data was really good on all those pitches.

25:10.073 --> 25:13.957
[SPEAKER_01]: And the concern, because that's kind of always a lower guy on him until recently.

25:14.397 --> 25:17.761
[SPEAKER_01]: And the concern that I've always had with him is that everything is so vertical.

25:18.161 --> 25:20.163
[SPEAKER_01]: Like if you watch a pitch, it's just up and down.

25:20.324 --> 25:24.908
[SPEAKER_01]: Like everything is like, it's like, it's like pitching on a straight line.

25:24.968 --> 25:34.138
[SPEAKER_01]: Like literally like he has nothing that has any horizontal movement to it, which is always the concern that I've had with him because even a slider is a gyro slider, right?

25:34.158 --> 25:37.161
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he needs something that has some horizontal movement to it.

25:37.141 --> 25:43.950
[SPEAKER_01]: So hopefully that's what he's working on developing right now because I know that he has talked this offseason that he's developing new pitch.

25:44.691 --> 25:45.932
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not really sure what it is.

25:46.032 --> 25:49.277
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't recall if you know if he's come out and said what that pitch is.

25:49.737 --> 25:53.722
[SPEAKER_01]: But I know he's working this offseason on developing something for that.

25:53.802 --> 26:05.157
[SPEAKER_01]: So hopefully that helps him out because underlying he had like a 173 Sierra in the minors last year all his like his fastball to 23% that's doing strike rate on it.

26:05.137 --> 26:11.772
[SPEAKER_01]: from the triple A data that we have on it, but when he got to the majors, everyone just sounded that fastball.

26:12.053 --> 26:13.236
[SPEAKER_01]: That fastball got smashed.

26:13.316 --> 26:24.141
[SPEAKER_01]: Even though the characteristics are still good, like stuff, stuff wise, movement wise, it still had really good characteristics, but a 600 slug against that fastball in the majors is,

26:24.121 --> 26:25.282
[SPEAKER_01]: really, really poor.

26:25.803 --> 26:27.445
[SPEAKER_01]: So everyone was just saying fastball.

26:28.186 --> 26:31.830
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's got to figure something out, maybe he was tipping a little bit when he got to the majors.

26:31.850 --> 26:38.618
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not really sure because you don't really see a transition that poor from minor league to major league statistics.

26:38.638 --> 26:40.421
[SPEAKER_01]: So it is a little bit concerning to me.

26:41.342 --> 26:42.403
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think he's going to figure it out.

26:42.483 --> 26:43.604
[SPEAKER_01]: Seems like a really smart kid.

26:44.105 --> 26:45.126
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of a fun kid too.

26:45.186 --> 26:49.471
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you always talk like, I don't know if you've seen there's like video who'm talking about smelling the strikeouts.

26:49.992 --> 26:51.554
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he like smells the baseball.

26:51.934 --> 26:54.077
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I just said that.

26:54.057 --> 26:58.303
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so he's like, he's like a fun dude too, so I hope he does figure it out seems like a smart guy.

26:59.264 --> 27:02.369
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's gonna figure it out, but like I just bear with him a little bit.

27:02.389 --> 27:03.110
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still is young.

27:03.470 --> 27:05.413
[SPEAKER_01]: So keep that in mind as he is a younger dude still.

27:06.535 --> 27:12.663
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I had to just see him live as well and I late in 24 in double A.

27:12.683 --> 27:14.806
[SPEAKER_02]: It's kind of before he broke out.

27:14.847 --> 27:19.754
[SPEAKER_02]: Me, he had two starts in double A, you end of 2024, and he was pretty intrigued.

27:19.834 --> 27:21.516
[SPEAKER_02]: I did not think he, you know, have

27:21.496 --> 27:33.339
[SPEAKER_02]: the 20 25 season that he did, but I'm also kicking myself and not getting more shares because I was saw him and I shared those similar concerns about some some command, but I was like, man, this is a pretty fun pitch mix.

27:33.359 --> 27:36.325
[SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, it's funny, you mentioned everything's just so vertical with him.

27:36.365 --> 27:41.715
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he's the big old school, like upper 70s, hammer curve ball.

27:42.216 --> 27:44.280
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got the Vulcan change.

27:44.260 --> 27:45.923
[SPEAKER_02]: We've a lot of depth on it.

27:46.323 --> 28:00.987
[SPEAKER_02]: I think a sweeper would or a cutter would just be like phenomenal for for Jonah Tom's give you some of that more of that horizontal movement Right now you go as foreseen curve ball slaughter change that you mentioned even the Sliders more vagital sliders.

28:01.027 --> 28:03.552
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, a lot of that is vertical movement, but the curve.

28:03.572 --> 28:04.433
[SPEAKER_02]: I love the curve ball.

28:04.814 --> 28:05.695
[SPEAKER_02]: I love the change up

28:06.350 --> 28:09.917
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, fastball did hit a lot, but there are some good characteristics on it.

28:09.937 --> 28:12.121
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm not like terribly concerned.

28:12.262 --> 28:15.749
[SPEAKER_02]: He gets, you know, really good extensions and good writing life on that forseomer.

28:15.829 --> 28:19.536
[SPEAKER_02]: So I do think you'll see some better metrics on that this year.

28:19.677 --> 28:19.937
[SPEAKER_02]: But.

28:20.221 --> 28:24.650
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a matter of how much time are we going to see him with the meds this year.

28:24.670 --> 28:25.512
[SPEAKER_02]: That's kind of the question.

28:25.532 --> 28:41.284
[SPEAKER_02]: So for redraw, if I've had him in the showing away, it's because of not sure about the the workload for in the major leagues, but I still think tongue is to be, you know, could be a number two starter long term, making it a nice duo there with with the one McLean and obviously I've already brought the

28:41.264 --> 28:43.870
[SPEAKER_02]: in the next now as well, these for twenty twenty six.

28:43.930 --> 28:47.518
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I think Tongue still a decent long-term investment.

28:48.320 --> 28:54.033
[SPEAKER_02]: I strike outside is massive, you know, it could be a thirty percent key rate guy in the majors.

28:54.073 --> 28:59.526
[SPEAKER_02]: He's always been high key rate, you know, twenty twenty three, you know, he had a thirty-eight percent key rate.

28:59.506 --> 29:05.739
[SPEAKER_02]: 2024, 34% and then 2025, as I mentioned, was 40 and a half percent in the minor leagues.

29:05.759 --> 29:07.503
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, there's some really good batting average against.

29:07.823 --> 29:09.487
[SPEAKER_02]: And so it's only a huge lot walk right and check.

29:10.048 --> 29:13.996
[SPEAKER_02]: Keeps the fastball, you know, improved for this upcoming year.

29:14.397 --> 29:17.143
[SPEAKER_02]: I think took Jonathan's could be still like a top.

29:17.191 --> 29:22.439
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I'll say like top 30 to 40 arm for fantasy, uh, long term.

29:23.360 --> 29:23.600
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.

29:23.661 --> 29:26.044
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, so I'll just something else I'm talking.

29:26.785 --> 29:28.187
[SPEAKER_01]: No, I was just going to say I agree with you.

29:28.327 --> 29:30.370
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he just needs, uh, I agree.

29:30.390 --> 29:31.893
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's like a cutter would be great.

29:32.293 --> 29:35.218
[SPEAKER_01]: And, uh, even, even a sinker would be great.

29:35.258 --> 29:38.963
[SPEAKER_01]: He needs like variations of that fast ball just to get people from sitting on it.

29:39.112 --> 29:44.839
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I love seeing multiple fastball variations, especially with him.

29:44.859 --> 29:48.584
[SPEAKER_02]: I think getting like a pitch in the low 90s would be good.

29:48.624 --> 29:55.152
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got the mid 90s for a singer, mid 80s change, mid to upper 80s slider, upper 70s curve.

29:55.572 --> 29:59.717
[SPEAKER_02]: He adds another velocity band, like a 91 mile in our cutter or something like that.

30:00.358 --> 30:03.702
[SPEAKER_02]: With that, you know, horizontal movement, I think that would be a really good pitch.

30:03.682 --> 30:07.048
[SPEAKER_02]: for Jonathan, but we shall see if that becomes the case.

30:07.649 --> 30:10.174
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's move into the next set of 10 here.

30:10.194 --> 30:14.041
[SPEAKER_02]: These are ranking 11 through 20 for us.

30:14.442 --> 30:17.107
[SPEAKER_02]: For me, those are 11 through 20 guys.

30:17.829 --> 30:22.838
[SPEAKER_02]: I start with Andrew Painter, their at number 11, who Tim had

30:22.818 --> 30:23.939
[SPEAKER_02]: at number 10.

30:24.660 --> 30:26.903
[SPEAKER_02]: So he's a guy that's kind of falling from grace a little bit.

30:26.963 --> 30:28.786
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll talk about him here in a second.

30:28.826 --> 30:29.727
[SPEAKER_02]: 12 through 15.

30:29.747 --> 30:35.074
[SPEAKER_02]: I got Travis Cicora, Connelly Early, Ryan Sloan, and Cam Cam and Nitty.

30:35.094 --> 30:43.205
[SPEAKER_02]: 16 through 20, Harlean Susanna, Kaisan Widderspoon, Liam Doyle, Jami Arnold, and Jackson Wiggins.

30:43.285 --> 30:47.831
[SPEAKER_02]: So a few of the FYPD guys in that's range of rankings as well.

30:48.512 --> 30:50.074
[SPEAKER_02]: Tim, who do you got 11 through 20?

30:50.560 --> 31:09.852
[SPEAKER_01]: of Liam Doyle at 11, Kyson Wither Spoon at 12, Harlan Susana at 13, Jackson Wiggins 14, Ryan Sloan 15, Seth Hernandez at 16, Connie early 17, Logan Henderson 18, Jamie Arnold 19, and Carlos Lagrang at 20.

31:09.832 --> 31:32.295
[SPEAKER_02]: every time I see or say his name I'll or hear I always think of the as easy top song ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

31:32.714 --> 31:34.918
[SPEAKER_02]: In concerts, what year was it?

31:34.998 --> 31:35.599
[SPEAKER_02]: 2023.

31:36.580 --> 31:40.907
[SPEAKER_02]: It was right after they lost their base guitarist.

31:40.927 --> 31:43.131
[SPEAKER_02]: But it was like, my dad had just beat cancer.

31:43.191 --> 31:45.335
[SPEAKER_02]: So it was like, hey, you kick cancer's ass.

31:45.695 --> 31:46.717
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's go see these easy top.

31:47.138 --> 31:48.219
[SPEAKER_02]: They came here to Portland, Maine.

31:48.420 --> 31:49.862
[SPEAKER_02]: It was really fun.

31:49.842 --> 31:52.667
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they should, I wanted to be here to right now.

31:53.007 --> 31:56.893
[SPEAKER_01]: Are they still like, as long as they were back in 2020?

31:57.314 --> 31:57.975
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, 100%.

31:58.215 --> 32:04.565
[SPEAKER_02]: And I can't remember who their longtime guitar tech steps, you know, he's the new bassist in the easy top.

32:04.606 --> 32:06.589
[SPEAKER_02]: I forget his name, but he just has the look.

32:06.769 --> 32:08.832
[SPEAKER_02]: That's well, like he fits in perfectly.

32:08.852 --> 32:11.817
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, yep, this guy looks like he's been as you saw for 50 years.

32:11.797 --> 32:27.966
[SPEAKER_02]: But it's funny that the one guy that doesn't have a beard is his top is the guy with beard in his name, their drummer Frank beard, so he doesn't have a beard, but his last name is beard kind of weird, but anyway, back to baseball here, let's talk about Andrew painter here, I had him at 11

32:28.182 --> 32:44.098
[SPEAKER_02]: And Tim had him at 10 so pretty similar spots, but he looked a couple of years ago, this guy was pretty by and large the number one pitching prospect in baseball, but been a weird last few years and ever being down at first pitch Florida.

32:44.348 --> 33:00.265
[SPEAKER_02]: And 2023, this was right after the insane 2022 year that painter had in the minors 133 and 23rds innings, 22 stars, he had a 156 ERA, a 089 whip.

33:00.245 --> 33:13.100
[SPEAKER_02]: 6% walk rate in a 38.7% strikeout rate with a 180 batting average against that was between low-A, high-A and 5 AA starts as well.

33:13.500 --> 33:16.384
[SPEAKER_02]: We were like traffic him in fantasy leagues that year.

33:16.444 --> 33:23.772
[SPEAKER_02]: The hype was at a fever pitch and you thought that you was maybe even break camp with the fillies or

33:23.752 --> 33:26.214
[SPEAKER_02]: And then obviously the elbow issues popped up.

33:26.635 --> 33:32.300
[SPEAKER_02]: He misses two full seasons came back, saw him in the AFL in 2024.

33:32.881 --> 33:37.285
[SPEAKER_02]: Looks good, but Rosti, you know, pretty much what you expect after that long layoff.

33:37.906 --> 33:43.631
[SPEAKER_02]: And in 2025, was it primarily in AAA with a handful of low A starts as well.

33:44.412 --> 33:47.254
[SPEAKER_02]: And you know, you can see he was still kind of chicken off the rest.

33:47.274 --> 33:53.100
[SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't the greatest overall stats, 540 ERA in 118 innings.

33:53.080 --> 34:05.251
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, right, it was down to about 23 and a half percent walk right up to 9% whip of 149 so just you know, the stats weren't great, but when you watch him, you still see the upside there.

34:05.311 --> 34:10.236
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, still have them both of us, so have them right around the top 10 pitching prospect.

34:10.256 --> 34:12.918
[SPEAKER_02]: But what are you making of Andrew Painter now, Tim?

34:12.938 --> 34:18.644
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, is this someone that you're like looking to go and buy low while the price tag has kind of been depleted a little bit?

34:18.704 --> 34:19.965
[SPEAKER_02]: So what are your thoughts here?

34:20.418 --> 34:42.173
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it depends on the price when you talk about buying low, right, like if the price is there, then for sure I saw him this year too, and I'll tell you I was definitely concerned watching him live the fastball was just not there like he was throwing it hard, he's throwing 98 99 and I think I have video on YouTube so you can go see it from like direct behind home plate.

34:42.153 --> 34:45.959
[SPEAKER_01]: But I was watching him the first setting.

34:45.979 --> 34:57.137
[SPEAKER_01]: He threw like all fastballs and the Abel Marlins team was there just on it like I don't think he really I don't think he gave up any damage, but I just remember so many foul balls.

34:57.218 --> 35:00.202
[SPEAKER_01]: I was like they just keep making contact on this thing like that.

35:00.222 --> 35:04.870
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not the same fastball that it was he's not getting swing strikes on that thing at all

35:04.850 --> 35:27.094
[SPEAKER_01]: And even the metrics back that up like he does not have the same spin on that fast ball that he had pre TJ now maybe a year later maybe he gets the spin on that thing back one can hope the breaking stuff as soon as he started throwing the breaking stuff because the first inning when I saw for whatever reason he was all fast ball second inning he started throwing the breaking stuff and then he started getting strikeouts.

35:27.074 --> 35:35.847
[SPEAKER_01]: So to me, when I saw him and even the numbers kind of back this up, that the breaking stuff is still there, it's just a fastball.

35:35.887 --> 35:45.100
[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have the spin on the fastball and he doesn't have the same command on that fastball, he was only throwing his fastball Eric for a strike 45% of the time.

35:45.080 --> 35:50.327
[SPEAKER_01]: So like he's like he's not getting swings on that thing unless it's balls in play.

35:50.347 --> 36:08.893
[SPEAKER_01]: 8.9% swings strike rate on a fastball is not it's not it's not good you know like yeah it's it's not bad it's it's it's sub part though it's like a 45 right it's it's maybe not even a 50 grade pitch on that fastball now when before it was looking like a 60 70 grade fastball pre-tj

36:08.873 --> 36:12.562
[SPEAKER_01]: So he does not have the same spin on the fastball, but the rest of the pitches are so good.

36:12.603 --> 36:26.157
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I guess change about a 28% swing strike rate on it this year when he was at A ball and triple A from the data that we have, slider was 19% so all the breaking pitches like I still like and I still gave him good grades on most of his breakers, the curve.

36:26.137 --> 36:53.730
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of thought was not that great, but the cutter or sweeper or whatever you want to call that one, I still think that's going to be a good pitch, the slider, I think is still a lead to change up as a lead to that fastball, if he can't find that thing, it's going to be rough because like pictures without a fastball, it's tough to make it as a elite ace type picture without a fastball, maybe it could be a number good number two, if you can't find the fastball, but he's not I don't see an ace unless you can find that fastball somewhere.

36:54.807 --> 36:58.732
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I know that that fastball definitely is concerned and that's kind of what I was seeing with him.

36:59.653 --> 37:02.277
[SPEAKER_02]: Especially in that start out in the AFL of the fastball.

37:02.297 --> 37:04.720
[SPEAKER_02]: This wasn't there, but again, I wasn't really really much into it.

37:04.740 --> 37:06.342
[SPEAKER_02]: It's given that I was like, is one of those.

37:07.123 --> 37:11.689
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like those first start or second start back in general in game action.

37:11.729 --> 37:14.452
[SPEAKER_02]: So I wasn't kind of like, you know, hammering him too hard for that.

37:14.572 --> 37:17.796
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, just watching video last year of him.

37:17.897 --> 37:19.819
[SPEAKER_02]: I didn't have a chance to see him live last year.

37:20.187 --> 37:29.462
[SPEAKER_02]: because he's mostly in Lehigh Valley, which is like a 10-hour drive for me, but yeah, watching the video on my LBTV and just online, YouTube, whatever.

37:29.883 --> 37:37.074
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it just didn't look great and you sell like, you know, not a great wiff rate on that pitch, you know, give up a lot of hard contact on the fastball.

37:37.655 --> 37:46.870
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, the second there is just a really good change up slider curveball, like they all had pretty good wiff rates, you know, on this offering, especially the change up had a 55% wiff rate.

37:47.204 --> 37:48.366
[SPEAKER_02]: on that pitch last year.

37:48.426 --> 37:57.420
[SPEAKER_02]: So there's still a lot of upside there, but yeah, I want to see him kind of revamp the fast, but hopefully the fillies can kind of get that going well again.

37:57.460 --> 38:01.045
[SPEAKER_02]: But the good thing is they can they can afford to ease him in.

38:01.285 --> 38:07.916
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, whether he's the number five this year or they, you know, put it back in the triple A, bring him up, you know, midseason or something like that.

38:08.416 --> 38:12.182
[SPEAKER_02]: They have the depth and the pitching staff and the talent that they can ease him in.

38:12.162 --> 38:22.054
[SPEAKER_02]: and not have to put him in, you know, super high-level situations, so I think they have the time to continue to develop him and he's still pretty young.

38:22.074 --> 38:26.299
[SPEAKER_02]: He's still only 22 or 23 very early in the season.

38:27.281 --> 38:33.208
[SPEAKER_02]: So I still have hope, but yeah, I don't think he's a big stud ace that we kind of thought he was going to be a few years ago.

38:33.188 --> 38:38.075
[SPEAKER_02]: and having, you know, one of the best minor league purchases we've ever seen back in 2022.

38:38.155 --> 38:40.458
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, I think he's still be a number two.

38:40.518 --> 38:45.586
[SPEAKER_02]: So be, you know, like a top, again, 30 to 40 fantasy arm down the road.

38:46.146 --> 38:51.534
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm still kind of in on Andrew Painter, who would you rather buy low on right now?

38:51.574 --> 39:02.149
[SPEAKER_02]: Or would you, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let me, let

39:03.260 --> 39:07.246
[SPEAKER_01]: Based on the current value, Cicora, just because you struggled so much.

39:08.948 --> 39:10.610
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I'll sit on Cicora.

39:10.691 --> 39:18.201
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I just talked about like, I hate, you know, drafting a TJ guy and sitting on him, but Cicora is, let me put it this way.

39:18.782 --> 39:28.075
[SPEAKER_01]: With F scores, the F stuff on Cicora is a 142 and the second best starter that we're gonna talk about in a minute.

39:28.236 --> 39:31.360
[SPEAKER_01]: So here's a tease is 127.

39:31.340 --> 39:32.503
[SPEAKER_01]: and that's a percentage.

39:32.844 --> 39:39.501
[SPEAKER_01]: So that means his stuff is 15% better than the next best stuff picture in the minor leagues from 2025.

39:39.581 --> 39:40.082
[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.

39:41.526 --> 39:45.255
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, let me put it for me to put it simply.

39:45.295 --> 39:47.661
[SPEAKER_02]: I also say Sikora as well.

39:47.894 --> 39:49.056
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's no slight the painter.

39:49.096 --> 39:51.559
[SPEAKER_02]: I've just been, you know, everyone should on a super high So core guy.

39:52.260 --> 40:04.318
[SPEAKER_02]: If he wasn't hurt right now and missing the entire season the top tier of pitching prospects for me Which currently is just a tier of two with burns and McLean then you drop down to that second tier of you savage Chandler etc.

40:04.798 --> 40:06.841
[SPEAKER_02]: It would be a tier of three with the core.

40:06.961 --> 40:12.349
[SPEAKER_02]: I would have him right up there with McLean with burns like that's how high I am

40:12.329 --> 40:13.390
[SPEAKER_02]: on Sikora.

40:13.410 --> 40:22.603
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, it sucks that he's emissed all this time and yeah, you can probably throw some durability concerns in the profile, which are already kind of there, but not even more so.

40:22.623 --> 40:27.249
[SPEAKER_02]: So he's risky, but there aren't many pitching pitches on the planet with more upside the Travis Sikora.

40:27.950 --> 40:37.223
[SPEAKER_02]: But let's go over to one of his nationals, organizational mates here in Harlean

40:37.203 --> 41:04.932
[SPEAKER_02]: in his own rights and kind of like three potential plus or better pitches just insane stuff insane strikeout upside you know but a little risky just given the you know the floor being a little bit lower due to a super high walk rate but you know last year in 56 and a third in

41:04.912 --> 41:11.719
[SPEAKER_02]: But he also had a 13.9% walk rate, 131 whip, 195 by average against.

41:12.179 --> 41:29.937
[SPEAKER_02]: So he's another guy, you know, kind of, you know, not I'm not comping the two, but almost can be like a right-handed version of a Thomas White where if the stuff is just so elite, you know, really good three-pitch mix there with the fastball, you know, slider kind of leading the way those are the two, you know, big offerings for him.

41:29.977 --> 41:34.682
[SPEAKER_02]: You can hit triple digits, the sliders, one of the best sliders and all of

41:35.118 --> 41:40.005
[SPEAKER_02]: But just that command and control has been pretty inconsistent for him so far.

41:40.145 --> 41:42.309
[SPEAKER_02]: So what do you make of Susana?

41:42.389 --> 41:47.777
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, so many, you know, you could be, I got one of the best closures in baseball if they end up going that route with him.

41:48.157 --> 41:57.010
[SPEAKER_02]: You could be one of the best starters in baseball of the control improves or, you know, we've seen guys like him that kind of fizzle out and don't reach their potential because they can't throw strikes.

41:57.130 --> 42:02.458
[SPEAKER_02]: So kind of how how are you valuing all the pros and cons here of Susana to him?

42:03.029 --> 42:10.520
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so I might be the the biggest champion of Harley and Susanna in the prospecting crowd here.

42:10.540 --> 42:30.150
[SPEAKER_01]: I've got him at 53 overall in my rankings and I just hinted that

42:30.232 --> 42:31.935
[SPEAKER_01]: both had a 127F stuff.

42:32.557 --> 42:36.825
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's how good Harlan Susana is that is stuff is comparable to Chase Burns.

42:37.687 --> 42:40.813
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's the same thing, fastball slider, right?

42:41.435 --> 42:43.980
[SPEAKER_01]: So it looks like a big time fastball slider with Susana.

42:44.040 --> 42:45.202
[SPEAKER_01]: So very similar thing.

42:46.024 --> 42:49.090
[SPEAKER_01]: My comment that I threw on them is actually Paulski's light with worse command.

42:49.791 --> 42:50.653
[SPEAKER_01]: But...

42:50.633 --> 43:08.963
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a big thing people don't realize, Susana got hurt and came back and in his final seven starts of the season after returning from injury Eric, he had a 0.81 Sierra with a 22.4% swing strike rate in these starts.

43:09.179 --> 43:17.321
[SPEAKER_01]: and he had a 50% K rate in the final seven starts of the year with a 10.9% walk rate.

43:17.341 --> 43:19.568
[SPEAKER_01]: So he brought his walk rate down to 10.9.

43:19.608 --> 43:23.037
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a 39.1K minus walk rate.

43:23.050 --> 43:23.691
[SPEAKER_01]: is what he had.

43:24.052 --> 43:25.233
[SPEAKER_01]: And his final seven starts.

43:25.534 --> 43:28.879
[SPEAKER_01]: And the bad start he had was his final start.

43:28.959 --> 43:30.742
[SPEAKER_01]: He had three strikeouts and two walks.

43:31.263 --> 43:33.987
[SPEAKER_01]: He tore his lap and that start.

43:34.007 --> 43:41.959
[SPEAKER_01]: So he had to get, so he missed all of September because he had to get a surgery for a grade three lap terror, but apparently he's supposed to be healthy to start the year.

43:42.440 --> 43:45.565
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see if I see him this spring down in West Palm Beach.

43:45.545 --> 43:50.492
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, because the Nats make their home West Palm, so I'll see if I see him this spring.

43:51.233 --> 43:55.639
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, but that's how good he was down the stretch is a 50% K rate.

43:55.660 --> 43:59.104
[SPEAKER_01]: Like this guy, he reduced the walk rate down to 10%.

43:59.165 --> 44:03.150
[SPEAKER_01]: If he, if he can run with a 10% walk rate, this guy's going to be a stud.

44:03.170 --> 44:06.135
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I think you got worst case scenario.

44:06.495 --> 44:07.917
[SPEAKER_01]: Number two starter here.

44:08.698 --> 44:13.425
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, with him, him and Sakura are like he and Sakura in that rotation can be pretty nasty.

44:13.405 --> 44:43.328
[SPEAKER_01]: for a long time like I think worst case you're looking at like a righty robby ray where he's just like piling up strikeouts left in right yeah maybe he walks too many guys some seasons but I think he's going to be just a very hard deal with like a strikeout master like 250 strikeouts a year yeah and he's in the absolute beast if he could say healthy and he's at the elbow issue last year the UCL spray and you mentioned the latair was you who knows you know

44:43.628 --> 44:53.686
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, a little bit after that, the upside is massive, but you know, also some injury risk, some walk risk here with Susana, but yeah, the stuff is just so damn good.

44:53.706 --> 44:55.709
[SPEAKER_02]: Like he's one of my favorite pictures to watch.

44:55.970 --> 45:08.792
[SPEAKER_02]: And I agree, like him and Sikora could form a really, really dynamic, you know, future one to for that wash to nationals organization who their rotation was already bad, and then they trade away McKenzie Gore.

45:08.772 --> 45:16.302
[SPEAKER_02]: And now their rotation basically, which I think I use this gift, the clotted regret, like who to focus that guy?

45:17.103 --> 45:24.452
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, if that's their entire rotation right now, like who's their number one like cake devali or Brad Lord?

45:24.493 --> 45:31.742
[SPEAKER_02]: Something like that right now, so yeah, that rotation terrible, probably the second worst behind the Rockies, but

45:32.077 --> 45:41.570
[SPEAKER_02]: They got a couple of very high up side arms here, but with some risks, so hopefully, you know, the Nats are really baking on Sikora and Suzana, you know, being that future one, too for them.

45:41.670 --> 45:44.975
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I have Suzana ads, oh, where is he?

45:44.995 --> 45:54.168
[SPEAKER_02]: Only overall 77 right now in my overall, so I still have a little bit low in the U, but I have Sikora at 52 and Suzana at 79.

45:54.348 --> 45:59.335
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, if Sikora wasn't hurt, he might be top 10 overall for me.

45:59.375 --> 46:00.717
[SPEAKER_02]: Right now that's that's a high.

46:01.034 --> 46:01.776
[SPEAKER_02]: I am on him.

46:01.796 --> 46:06.688
[SPEAKER_02]: It's I have you savage at 12 white 15 Chandler 19 and he'd be head of savage.

46:06.748 --> 46:07.410
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, good chance.

46:07.430 --> 46:10.578
[SPEAKER_02]: He'd be top 10 and I have burns of a clean three four.

46:11.199 --> 46:12.964
[SPEAKER_02]: Roku on on the you know the F stuff.

46:13.244 --> 46:16.292
[SPEAKER_02]: Tim where does where's McLean rank on the F stuff?

46:17.099 --> 46:21.485
[SPEAKER_01]: He's at a 108 F stuff.

46:22.246 --> 46:24.068
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's for Major League.

46:24.288 --> 46:34.141
[SPEAKER_01]: So obviously when we were talking about the other guys that we were talking about minor league, I've got a Major League F stuff of Purnas, and this is kind of funny.

46:34.461 --> 46:38.146
[SPEAKER_01]: Burnas is a 127, minors and a 127 majors.

46:38.306 --> 46:40.649
[SPEAKER_01]: So he literally, it translated like one to one for him.

46:41.050 --> 46:43.613
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, yeah, yeah.

46:43.762 --> 46:45.865
[SPEAKER_02]: Good stuff there, and open intended.

46:47.007 --> 46:49.952
[SPEAKER_02]: Last guy wanted to get into in this 11th through 20 range.

46:50.492 --> 46:54.519
[SPEAKER_02]: I got that you're very high on in Logan Henderson, who you had.

46:55.620 --> 46:59.847
[SPEAKER_02]: Where did you have him in your overall 18, among pitching prospects?

46:59.827 --> 47:17.835
[SPEAKER_02]: Right between Connelly, early and Jamie Arnold, so very high, they might be one of the higher rankings I've seen on Logan Henderson, who's a guy who looks like he should be in that rotation to start the season getting a chance, especially with pretty pralta out of town.

47:17.815 --> 47:41.157
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, it's a Henderson will be in that rotation, assuming he has a decent spring last year, you know, pretty good year overall in Triple A, 359 ERA in 77 and 23rds innings with 87 strikeouts to 24 walks and then five starts with Milwaukee, 25 and a third innings, pretty solid

47:41.137 --> 47:43.521
[SPEAKER_02]: 33Ks to eight walks.

47:43.621 --> 47:54.518
[SPEAKER_02]: So you know, overall, you know, 120 to 121 strikeouts to 32 walks in 103 combined innings between Triple A and the major's last year.

47:54.958 --> 47:56.401
[SPEAKER_02]: So the production has been there.

47:57.082 --> 48:02.470
[SPEAKER_02]: So what do you see from Henderson, Tim, that has you having him right now as a top 20 overall pitching prospect?

48:03.344 --> 48:15.885
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... he has elite control which is pretty obvious under one wip for rucky isn't saying i i really don't understand what the barrisard doing by like i thought i was uh... yeah that was a really weird decision for sure

48:15.983 --> 48:36.608
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean like he he kind of reminds me and like different pitches to different skill set, but he kind of reminds me of like when Bryce Miller came up Like just like under one whip like really good command only a couple pitches The concern for Logan Henderson was oh he's a fastball change up guy and that's all he's got right like that was always the concern with him coming up

48:36.588 --> 48:40.613
[SPEAKER_01]: which I give him a 65 grade on that fastball and a 70 grade on that change up.

48:41.054 --> 48:44.898
[SPEAKER_01]: Fastball is, you know, he can get up to 96 on it, really good IVB.

48:45.319 --> 48:46.380
[SPEAKER_01]: The change up is elite.

48:46.480 --> 48:48.363
[SPEAKER_01]: That's one of the better changeups in baseball.

48:49.344 --> 48:54.470
[SPEAKER_01]: The fastball had a 16% swing strike rate on it, which is 96% tile in the majors.

48:55.051 --> 48:57.394
[SPEAKER_01]: So two really good pitches here, but that's not all he is.

48:58.315 --> 49:02.460
[SPEAKER_01]: He mixed in a cutter and a sinker that he didn't really throw in the minor is very much.

49:02.440 --> 49:08.412
[SPEAKER_01]: But a slider too, the slider not as good, but the cutter was actually very successful.

49:08.452 --> 49:13.321
[SPEAKER_01]: He only uses it against lefties, but almost a 16% swing strike rate on that cutter.

49:13.541 --> 49:14.563
[SPEAKER_01]: And that gets up to 88.

49:15.185 --> 49:17.790
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's been using that against lefties to help differentiate.

49:17.810 --> 49:19.874
[SPEAKER_01]: And I guess like Bridges pitches a little bit.

49:20.315 --> 49:21.717
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's having success on it.

49:21.757 --> 49:24.162
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's helping him.

49:24.142 --> 49:30.030
[SPEAKER_01]: be able to not just get, you know, have hitters just sit on that fastball by mixing these other pitches in.

49:30.110 --> 49:36.259
[SPEAKER_01]: So that cutter kind of underrated here, against lefties, against righties have been throwing a sinker and a slider.

49:36.299 --> 49:50.419
[SPEAKER_01]: The slider is not that great pretty bad pitch, actually really, but at least it helps him mix something else in, but maybe he develops something else to get using his righties because against lefties, I think he's pretty set.

49:50.399 --> 49:59.568
[SPEAKER_01]: with the cutter fastball change up, but if you can get something else in there against varieties, maybe better than that slider, or maybe you can change the slider a little bit, tinker with it this off season.

49:59.628 --> 50:03.192
[SPEAKER_01]: Then I think we're really rocking and rolling here, and he's not just a two-pitch guy.

50:03.232 --> 50:09.478
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got variations of these other little pitches that might only get like two, four, five percent overall that he's using.

50:10.078 --> 50:16.845
[SPEAKER_01]: He is still very dominant fastball change up, but at least it's something else that haters have to look at and it's working.

50:16.825 --> 50:18.828
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think Henderson is pretty underrated.

50:18.888 --> 50:20.851
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of a crafty guy, smaller guy.

50:20.891 --> 50:30.785
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I love the smaller dudes too when they work, especially when you're throwing from a lower release point with high IVB like that, that is proven to work.

50:30.825 --> 50:36.032
[SPEAKER_01]: We see that from a lot of these shorter, major league pitchers, that pitch just works.

50:36.788 --> 50:45.121
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, even given the velocity being kind of middle of the road around 93 miles an hour, yeah, 17 inches of induced vertical break there.

50:46.222 --> 51:04.230
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I've been, you know, I kind of take a lot of that what you just said, and that's kind of how I've been feeling where I am always a little leery of the fastball change of guys, like we saw like two Thorpe or a recent example of that, I was never super high on two Thorpe, though I do like Henderson right now more than I like the Thorpe at the same kind of,

51:04.210 --> 51:21.848
[SPEAKER_02]: point of his development, but you know, I do wonder like, you know, where's the K rate upside with him, you know, he did strike out a bunch of guys, you know, with in the majors last year, 33 and 25 innings, you know, change up in fastball accounting for 32 of those 33 strikeouts.

51:21.908 --> 51:33.880
[SPEAKER_02]: So just another really, this thing I have with a lot of these dominant two pitch guys, whether it's forcing slider, forcing change up whatever, it's like, what if one of those

51:34.349 --> 51:36.572
[SPEAKER_02]: So I get kind of concerned about that.

51:36.592 --> 51:37.814
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I would love to see him.

51:38.475 --> 51:43.263
[SPEAKER_02]: That's cutter, slaughter, or whether it's one of those two, whether it's a curve ball, a sweeper.

51:43.283 --> 51:49.933
[SPEAKER_02]: I want to see a third offering key can get straight out, so that's kind of where I'm at with Henderson.

51:49.953 --> 51:50.654
[SPEAKER_02]: So I like Henderson.

51:50.674 --> 51:56.703
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't love Henderson, or just because I'm using a guy that goes after these fastball changeup guys in general.

51:57.264 --> 52:03.073
[SPEAKER_02]: But I do like the, I think it could be a good

52:03.053 --> 52:05.605
[SPEAKER_02]: formal walkie, and you mentioned, you know, kind of bad.

52:05.973 --> 52:25.251
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, good walk rate guy, you know, is kind of has been, you know, so I think he's got a pretty solid floor as well, and even if he's more like a 24 25% key rate guy, you know, as opposed to a 30 plus, you know, I think he could still be guy gives you a good volume, you know, some solid ratios and a decent enough strike out right.

52:25.291 --> 52:27.533
[SPEAKER_02]: So it definitely definitely some intrigue.

52:27.553 --> 52:31.677
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm quite excited him as you are, but I can see why you're high in him.

52:31.697 --> 52:33.499
[SPEAKER_02]: There's definitely some good characteristics here.

52:33.479 --> 52:35.121
[SPEAKER_02]: with Logan Henderson.

52:35.903 --> 52:41.050
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's move on to 21 through 30 in our pitching prospect rankings.

52:41.611 --> 52:43.594
[SPEAKER_02]: Who do you got in these slots, Tim?

52:43.614 --> 52:47.379
[SPEAKER_01]: I've got a gauge jump at 21 Luis Parallis at 22.

52:48.341 --> 53:00.398
[SPEAKER_01]: Travis

53:00.378 --> 53:01.299
[SPEAKER_01]: as 30.

53:02.240 --> 53:22.403
[SPEAKER_02]: I like Farad, you know, he's a nice little, you know, underrated pitching prospect, I think right now, but 21 through 30 for me, and Farad's just outside my top 30, but 21 through 30 for me is Noah Schultz, Keaton Scarborough, who is actually acquired in a dynasty league and not too long ago.

53:22.383 --> 53:37.894
[SPEAKER_02]: Gage Jump, Can Returio, and El Marad Riga's at 25, and then 26 to 30 is Hagan Smith, David Shields, Brendan Sproets, Ricky Tidiman, and Ali Hundra Rosario, who is also missing the entire year.

53:38.296 --> 53:46.326
[SPEAKER_02]: After missing all of twenty twenty five as well is he waited to have surgery for some freaking reason, but I mean, Resario would be a god.

53:46.366 --> 54:06.531
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I'm not going to really get on him, but he'd be got that might be top ten for me right now if he wasn't hurt I mean really good stuff really good communicative control, but just missing two full years and now gonna be 24 or 25 years old That's kind of kind of a bummer But let's start with the the white socks guys here, you know, hey against myth and you don't have no choice but kind of one the group him in here

54:06.511 --> 54:25.144
[SPEAKER_02]: with Hague and Smith because I feel like the perceived value and just like the rankings on these two in general, both dropped in 2025 for various reasons, you know, whether it be missing time, you know, command control, you know, the overall results or, you know, various combinations of those three,

54:25.748 --> 54:35.030
[SPEAKER_02]: So now I think you've gone from guys that were elite pitching prospects to, you know, fun upside guys with some notable concerns.

54:35.711 --> 54:38.358
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's start with Noah Schultz here.

54:39.039 --> 54:42.407
[SPEAKER_02]: Actually, you know, as you were starting to hate us with, we have both of them.

54:42.387 --> 54:57.620
[SPEAKER_02]: in our top 30, and he had a really high strikeout rate this past year 33.9% in 75 and two thirds innings, 357 ERA, 164 batting average gains.

54:57.720 --> 55:01.729
[SPEAKER_02]: So he's really hard to make good contact off of.

55:01.709 --> 55:08.199
[SPEAKER_02]: But he had a 16, that should be a 17.6% walk rate.

55:09.021 --> 55:11.865
[SPEAKER_02]: That's major major concern with him.

55:11.885 --> 55:18.115
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's kind of a more of a two-pitch guide to fast bullseye or never really got a good feel.

55:18.095 --> 55:21.580
[SPEAKER_02]: But first, change up in the command control, just really, really poor.

55:21.680 --> 55:24.383
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think I'm much lower on him the most.

55:24.483 --> 55:34.777
[SPEAKER_02]: And then Noah Schultz, who was maybe a top five, top 10 pitching prospect for most entering the season, he had some injuries went to a 46 to ERA this year.

55:34.837 --> 55:40.845
[SPEAKER_02]: Walker went way up, Kira went way down, so he's going to fall off a cliff in terms of rankings.

55:40.825 --> 55:51.258
[SPEAKER_02]: But how do you value these two guys in our our are you looking to buy either Hagan Smith or Noah Schultz or at this point You kind of got left them be someone else's problem.

55:52.640 --> 56:04.174
[SPEAKER_01]: I have zero shares of both of these guys and if I was to have one it would probably be Hagan The good thing about Hagan Smith is at least Worst case scenario.

56:04.274 --> 56:10.562
[SPEAKER_01]: He would be like a dominant elite reliever like yeah, you know like I did our

56:10.711 --> 56:16.222
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, they're closer to Anthony, so it's like, you know, uh, he's he was so good against lefties.

56:16.322 --> 56:18.487
[SPEAKER_01]: This is this is funny for against him at his splits.

56:19.068 --> 56:26.222
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a one seven zero one oh seven zero against lefties four or seventy two against righties.

56:26.202 --> 56:31.470
[SPEAKER_01]: his walk rate against lefties is only 10% walk rate against righties is 20%.

56:31.570 --> 56:38.119
[SPEAKER_01]: So like came on his walk against lefties was like 37% with a 20% over over 20% swing strike rate.

56:38.960 --> 56:39.902
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just so weird Eric.

56:39.922 --> 56:44.989
[SPEAKER_01]: He has a 55% strike rate against lefties and 35% will ball rate.

56:45.069 --> 56:49.996
[SPEAKER_01]: But then against righties, he has a 41% strike rate in a 46% ball rate.

56:50.016 --> 56:53.982
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's so bad against righties that he's throwing more balls and strikes.

56:53.962 --> 57:21.859
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... his came minus walk against righty is only four percent so very very bad against righty's but this guy destroys lefty's yeah i guess the good thing the good news is like he was pretty good in the fallie and there's like in green and falling so it's like okay maybe there's like light in the tunnel he wasn't that bad uh... walk great wise in college and is like one of the season and yet so it's like okay there is like some white here at the tunnel so i guess i am a little more hopeful it's missed if i had to have one it would be him

57:21.839 --> 57:24.244
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm not really like super in on him.

57:24.264 --> 57:33.524
[SPEAKER_01]: I've got him at 83, so it's like, I don't know where everyone else has him ranked, but I'm probably, I don't know, middle middle of the pack or like lower end of rankings for him.

57:33.544 --> 57:35.027
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not very high on him.

57:35.047 --> 57:41.822
[SPEAKER_01]: And no, it's short, so I don't even have he's not even he might be barely in my top 200, like he didn't make my 150 cut.

57:41.802 --> 57:59.246
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, that's how out I am on shoulder right now because like the one thing that he had really going for him was Ali command until this year and then the command just fell off a cliff So, uh, I don't know the white socks Probably need to bring in like a new guy to run their pitching development in this point Because it's like they had all these guys, right?

57:59.266 --> 58:08.940
[SPEAKER_01]: They had all these really good pitching prospects and Really like none of them have turned out, you know, Grant Taylor's a reliever now and, uh, what happened to, uh,

58:08.920 --> 58:12.506
[SPEAKER_01]: Aary Arte, like, Aary Arte is like gone now.

58:12.546 --> 58:13.628
[SPEAKER_01]: He just fell off a cliff.

58:13.648 --> 58:15.732
[SPEAKER_01]: So they brought in all these prospects.

58:15.752 --> 58:17.355
[SPEAKER_01]: They had all these elite pitching prospects.

58:17.816 --> 58:19.819
[SPEAKER_01]: And like not a single one has worked out.

58:19.859 --> 58:23.085
[SPEAKER_01]: And since crochet, it's like the one guy that actually made it.

58:23.145 --> 58:25.770
[SPEAKER_01]: And like the rest of these guys, they've just not been able to develop.

58:25.810 --> 58:30.979
[SPEAKER_01]: So they need to do something on the development side and fix their development team because they're not doing a very good job.

58:31.600 --> 58:38.048
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, to their credit, I think, you know, Krishnoper and Tiananmen Dugel did kind of have some solid years and rose up rankings.

58:38.088 --> 58:49.042
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, a lot of their guys are like the older, you know, closer to ready guys, you know, Schultz Smith, you know, Thorpe, Erie Arté, it's all kind of didn't do well this year for for various reasons.

58:49.823 --> 59:00.156
[SPEAKER_02]: And with those Smith and Schultz, I don't know, I'm lower on, I'm most, on them the most, you know, not quite as low as you on.

59:00.710 --> 59:02.814
[SPEAKER_02]: on Sholes, I have him, you know, near my top 100.

59:03.355 --> 59:09.247
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm willing to give him a little bit of a pass, just given, in fact, he was hurt for a good chunk of last year.

59:09.748 --> 59:13.756
[SPEAKER_02]: And I thought at the same time, I'm not as high in him as I once was.

59:13.796 --> 59:18.145
[SPEAKER_02]: And I was even as high as most on Sholes entering the year, either.

59:18.563 --> 59:20.886
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think a lot of places still have them top 100.

59:21.407 --> 59:27.837
[SPEAKER_02]: Overall, I actually kind of pissed off some white socks fans when I didn't have him in my top 100, and they were kind of all upset about it.

59:27.917 --> 59:32.063
[SPEAKER_02]: But I want to see how he bounces back this year before dropping them further down.

59:32.644 --> 59:41.837
[SPEAKER_02]: So as I still see a decent picture in here with Schultz, as I want to see if does that command come back, does the stuff tick back up with a fully healthy year?

59:41.817 --> 59:59.202
[SPEAKER_02]: But with Hagan Smith, I mean, so those concerns I mentioned where it's yeah, there's a super elite two pitches, but not really a third pitch right now, not any sort of good community control, it's just really poor this year, that's a really bad walk rates.

59:59.182 --> 01:00:03.248
[SPEAKER_02]: He's starting to give me some DL Hall vibes a little bit.

01:00:03.308 --> 01:00:06.692
[SPEAKER_02]: The hall did have a third pitch, but just couldn't locate anything.

01:00:06.773 --> 01:00:12.681
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm kind of wondering if Smith goes down the DL Hall row where he's just a reliever long-term though I agree.

01:00:12.701 --> 01:00:20.852
[SPEAKER_02]: He could be a really good one and a back and reliever for this white sucks team, but just given those concerns I have, that's why I can't put him on top of 100 right now.

01:00:20.832 --> 01:00:39.613
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm probably not gonna, I don't have any shares of Schultz or Smith and probably won't, unless they're super cheap, which they usually aren't, so yeah, I'm not looking to, I'm not rushing out to get either Smith or Schultz right now, but I just want to see, can Schultz get back healthy and get back to his old ways, can Smith drop the walkerate.

01:00:39.633 --> 01:00:44.899
[SPEAKER_02]: So there'll be two guys I'm really following closely in 2026 for sure though.

01:00:44.879 --> 01:00:53.457
[SPEAKER_01]: Something to keep in mind with Schultz is even in 2024 when he had a 25% came out as well great his swing strike rate was still only 11.8%.

01:00:54.699 --> 01:00:57.244
[SPEAKER_01]: So like he's always run low swing strike rates.

01:00:57.845 --> 01:01:00.691
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not sure his stuff was ever really that great.

01:01:00.771 --> 01:01:05.942
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he was just getting buy on like good command and his extension.

01:01:05.922 --> 01:01:08.587
[SPEAKER_01]: And now he doesn't even have the good command.

01:01:08.707 --> 01:01:15.559
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like for him to be good, he has to have like early command for it to work for him, which was kind of like a freakish thing.

01:01:15.599 --> 01:01:18.023
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like six with 10 and he wasn't walking anybody.

01:01:18.043 --> 01:01:20.668
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's just weird and it of itself.

01:01:21.169 --> 01:01:29.483
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like I feel like he needs to have command to have success because even when he was striking guys out, it wasn't based on like swinging strikes.

01:01:31.066 --> 01:01:35.677
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, yeah, he, if I recall, yeah, he didn't have super high swing strike rates either, right?

01:01:35.697 --> 01:01:41.592
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he was more like, if I recall, I might be way off on this, like 12% actually, my only pole less.

01:01:41.632 --> 01:01:44.198
[SPEAKER_01]: That's, yeah, that's where I just sent 11.8 in 2014.

01:01:44.559 --> 01:01:45.562
[SPEAKER_01]: So less than 12%.

01:01:45.602 --> 01:01:48.990
[SPEAKER_02]: He actually had a higher swing strike rate last year, 12.

01:01:49.662 --> 01:02:00.960
[SPEAKER_02]: 24% so dig it up a little bit all the enough, but yeah, not like Susan I think was like 16% something like that just you know kind of a 4% 5% gap there, which you know for sure in the story is as a pretty sizeable gap for sure.

01:02:01.942 --> 01:02:08.633
[SPEAKER_02]: Next thing I had on the outline which you kind of already looped into the you know when we talking about Susan I kind of looped in secure there.

01:02:09.980 --> 01:02:12.563
[SPEAKER_02]: But one other Nat's prospects is we already talked to.

01:02:12.603 --> 01:02:15.226
[SPEAKER_02]: They were third one with some pretty good upside.

01:02:15.246 --> 01:02:21.894
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, neither one of us had him in our top 30 by one to at least talk about him since we have talked about Susana and Sikora.

01:02:22.315 --> 01:02:26.159
[SPEAKER_02]: That's Luis Parales, who they got from the Red Sox in the Jake Bennett trade.

01:02:26.720 --> 01:02:32.967
[SPEAKER_02]: We got this elite electric fastball, good, you know, second areas with you know, slider.

01:02:32.947 --> 01:02:34.190
[SPEAKER_02]: and splitter as well.

01:02:34.350 --> 01:02:42.810
[SPEAKER_02]: But just a guy that has missed a lot of time, you know, only really has like what 36 or so combined innings over the last two years.

01:02:43.652 --> 01:02:46.498
[SPEAKER_02]: But the upside is massive, but so is the downside.

01:02:46.518 --> 01:02:50.247
[SPEAKER_02]: So do you have any injury here in Luis Parales, Tim?

01:02:50.682 --> 01:02:53.325
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, actually, I had prowess at 22 on the list.

01:02:53.345 --> 01:02:54.446
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, you did have a good one.

01:02:54.586 --> 01:02:56.208
[SPEAKER_01]: I lost over on my bed.

01:02:56.228 --> 01:03:02.955
[SPEAKER_01]: I had, you know, I put him in my rankings is 71 and that was before the Red Sox traded him because I really like the stuff, right?

01:03:02.995 --> 01:03:16.770
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I, I really love the metrics that we have on all his stuff and he always looks really good watching him pitch and he is awesome before the TJ and so like I was pretty high on him and then the Red Sox traded him for like a middling prospect.

01:03:16.790 --> 01:03:18.732
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, now I'm kind of scared.

01:03:18.712 --> 01:03:34.307
[SPEAKER_01]: like, oh, maybe I may even bring too high now because the red if the red socks obviously didn't trust this return like maybe there's something in like the physicals or that you know the injury reports or something that we don't know about that they know about so I'm just like, you know, like a little more timid on him now.

01:03:34.287 --> 01:03:37.953
[SPEAKER_01]: after the trade, but yeah, I mean, like fastball gives it the 101.

01:03:38.013 --> 01:03:42.080
[SPEAKER_01]: I just had a 60 potential 70 great on that fastball for him.

01:03:42.420 --> 01:03:46.968
[SPEAKER_01]: The splitter I put a 60, 65 on, so yeah, really good pitches.

01:03:47.328 --> 01:03:53.899
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a big fan of prowess when he's healthy, but now like after the trade, I'm like, is there something we don't know about here?

01:03:53.879 --> 01:04:04.311
[SPEAKER_01]: So like it kind of scares me because the red socks are usually a pretty smart team at least they have been recently, you know, pretty recently and the last four or five years, especially with their prospects, it seemed to know their prospects pretty well.

01:04:04.792 --> 01:04:07.415
[SPEAKER_01]: They know which ones that they want to keep, they know which ones they want to trade.

01:04:08.016 --> 01:04:15.785
[SPEAKER_01]: So like, I'm a little concerned actually after that trade, because like, I like paralysis way better than Bennett and some like, oh, one of one that's kind of weird.

01:04:15.865 --> 01:04:19.009
[SPEAKER_01]: So I am slightly concerned post-theked.

01:04:19.765 --> 01:04:26.213
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I echo that because as a Red Sox fan, that trade was very odd.

01:04:26.613 --> 01:04:32.901
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, yeah, Jake Bennett is a type of picture that, you know, this, for an office kind of likes.

01:04:33.622 --> 01:04:37.466
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm not surprised that they were targeting Bennett per se.

01:04:37.887 --> 01:04:41.571
[SPEAKER_02]: It was more so that they were just so willing to give up.

01:04:41.888 --> 01:05:08.605
[SPEAKER_02]: Parallels who just came back, you know, he was pitching out in Arizona, like he just came back and they got hit your your gone like, yeah, so I was like, do they have some concerns there, you know, that's, you know, maybe we don't know about the, you know, bigger concerns, then I thought they had on him, yeah, because there's definitely that downside with him, given, you know,

01:05:09.023 --> 01:05:21.294
[SPEAKER_02]: But I'm going to say this, and this might be, I don't know, hot take or whatever you want to call it, I'm going to say that in 2027 fantasy baseball drafts, we are drafting the least paralysis, a top 20 reliever.

01:05:21.835 --> 01:05:30.563
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I think this is a guy that goes to the pen at some point later this year, grabs a dozen saves in the second half of the season with a super high K rate.

01:05:31.083 --> 01:05:38.710
[SPEAKER_02]: Kind of like almost, you know, like a, what palencia did with the, with the cubs this year.

01:05:38.690 --> 01:05:39.431
[SPEAKER_02]: this year.

01:05:40.353 --> 01:05:41.855
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's kind of what's going to happen with paralysis.

01:05:41.875 --> 01:05:44.138
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's either closer of the future.

01:05:44.198 --> 01:05:47.504
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think he could be an absolutely dominant closer.

01:05:47.524 --> 01:05:51.189
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this guy could be eventually an RP-1 for fancy purposes.

01:05:51.209 --> 01:05:53.493
[SPEAKER_02]: Like these stuff is that good.

01:05:53.513 --> 01:05:55.055
[SPEAKER_02]: He's still only 22 years old.

01:05:55.456 --> 01:05:57.659
[SPEAKER_02]: He'll be 23 early on in the season.

01:05:57.779 --> 01:06:02.006
[SPEAKER_02]: But the ISF concerns if he can handle the start of his workload.

01:06:02.026 --> 01:06:07.414
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I don't think there's a massive community control

01:06:07.394 --> 01:06:14.588
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, not super great, you know, at at times, but I think the bigger concern I have is just can any hold up as a starter.

01:06:14.969 --> 01:06:17.293
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the community control is a bit of concern.

01:06:18.075 --> 01:06:22.363
[SPEAKER_02]: It'd be foolish not to be, but more so like I just don't know if he can hold up for 30 plus starts.

01:06:22.423 --> 01:06:22.964
[SPEAKER_02]: I really don't.

01:06:23.044 --> 01:06:27.613
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'll say that RP-2, 2027, Luis Peralis.

01:06:28.100 --> 01:06:30.883
[SPEAKER_02]: But let's move on to the last little question here.

01:06:31.283 --> 01:06:58.107
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think as a fun one, given the fact that so many of our top arms are likely going to graduate this year, from prospect rankings, I mean, look at, you know, burns of a cleaner graduate like super early this year, I mean, burns have technically already has, you know, you savage, probably going to graduate, Chandler likely will graduate, Tom probably will at some

01:06:58.087 --> 01:06:59.541
[SPEAKER_02]: Thomas White

01:07:00.263 --> 01:07:02.605
[SPEAKER_02]: probably gets 58 things this year.

01:07:02.625 --> 01:07:05.888
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's not definite, but let's assume he graduates as well.

01:07:06.128 --> 01:07:08.851
[SPEAKER_02]: That's like the most of the top 10 right there.

01:07:09.451 --> 01:07:20.922
[SPEAKER_02]: So looking ahead to 2027 a year from now, who do you think is going to be the number one pitching prospect in baseball team that there's some fun candidates here.

01:07:21.743 --> 01:07:25.186
[SPEAKER_02]: I have my locked in number one guy with a couple of the guys.

01:07:25.226 --> 01:07:25.886
[SPEAKER_02]: I could do it.

01:07:26.227 --> 01:07:29.950
[SPEAKER_02]: But who do you have as your number one pitching prospect one year from today?

01:07:30.470 --> 01:07:36.119
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of a cheat code, because we talked about it so much already, but it's going to be Travis Cicora, right?

01:07:36.159 --> 01:07:38.282
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be healthy by that point.

01:07:38.302 --> 01:07:42.208
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like, it's like almost like an automatic, so that's a bit of a cheat code.

01:07:42.228 --> 01:07:47.196
[SPEAKER_01]: So without the cheat code, I'm going to go that it's going to be one of the drafted guys, the 2020 font draft guys.

01:07:47.697 --> 01:07:54.908
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be one of like Kate Anderson or Liam Doyle or Kyson Wither Spoon, depending on like who Dave use and who doesn't.

01:07:54.888 --> 01:08:02.015
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would go like Anderson or Doyle, or even under the radar from the 2025 draft, it might be Seth Hernandez.

01:08:02.395 --> 01:08:06.720
[SPEAKER_01]: Like once we actually get some data on Seth Hernandez, he's going to be in Abel.

01:08:07.641 --> 01:08:13.567
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be in Forta, so we're going to get Florida State League data on him, which means we're going to get pitch level level data for him too.

01:08:14.087 --> 01:08:15.388
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully I'll get to see him.

01:08:16.570 --> 01:08:21.975
[SPEAKER_01]: So once he debuted and we actually get pitch level stuff from him, he could just be a guy who just

01:08:21.955 --> 01:08:29.449
[SPEAKER_01]: just like painter right like he could be a guy who just zooms all the way up uh like when painter did when painter was uh coming out of high school.

01:08:29.809 --> 01:08:34.899
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it's going to be if it's like you know without the chicote of Sikora it's going to be one of these draft guys.

01:08:34.959 --> 01:08:39.407
[SPEAKER_01]: Like put it on K to Anderson Liam Doyle, Kicing Witherspoon or Seth Hernandez.

01:08:40.315 --> 01:08:44.485
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you know, it's a core obviously is a great one there and obviously I'm super high in him.

01:08:44.906 --> 01:08:50.799
[SPEAKER_02]: I just wonder like, you know, with him coming up injury, if he gets back up to that number one, you know, ranking.

01:08:50.819 --> 01:08:57.615
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he absolutely could, but the guy I kind of honed in on the most is actually Seth Hernandez.

01:08:57.848 --> 01:09:05.157
[SPEAKER_02]: I think there's ace upside again, I hate throwing on that term, but there's ace upside with Seth Hernandez.

01:09:05.217 --> 01:09:06.999
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the stuff is is so ridiculous.

01:09:07.400 --> 01:09:11.205
[SPEAKER_02]: These are really good command for his age, rugged feel for pitching.

01:09:11.565 --> 01:09:15.029
[SPEAKER_02]: He could feel for his change up, good feel for, you know, spin.

01:09:15.550 --> 01:09:17.072
[SPEAKER_02]: He got a couple good breaking balls too.

01:09:17.092 --> 01:09:19.475
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know, fastball velocities there.

01:09:19.635 --> 01:09:21.898
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of exciting.

01:09:21.878 --> 01:09:23.963
[SPEAKER_02]: traits with Seth Hernandez.

01:09:24.484 --> 01:09:30.819
[SPEAKER_02]: And I saw him as a core, okay, my two front runners for that, you know, Kate Anderson, I think could be up there as well.

01:09:30.939 --> 01:09:40.140
[SPEAKER_02]: If he doesn't, you know, debut midseason for Seattle, which he absolutely could if he saw eligible Kate Anderson would be up there as well.

01:09:40.120 --> 01:09:45.670
[SPEAKER_02]: I would give a nod to Ryan Sloan and he's at a really good upside there.

01:09:45.690 --> 01:09:47.633
[SPEAKER_02]: I could see Sloan getting up there.

01:09:47.653 --> 01:09:49.737
[SPEAKER_02]: I got to agree with some of the other drafts.

01:09:49.757 --> 01:09:53.643
[SPEAKER_02]: He's like, with this one's a guy that I love the upside, love the arm talent.

01:09:54.084 --> 01:09:58.011
[SPEAKER_02]: And if Boston unlocks him, like, you know, with all the breakout guys they had last year,

01:09:58.430 --> 01:10:13.802
[SPEAKER_02]: You can easily win this room being one of the, you know, three or five best pitching prospects in baseball coming in to 2027 and I'll throw another is a dark horse guy again, I just traded for in Dinesy league that's a long ago, I love Keaton Scarborough a good bit too.

01:10:13.822 --> 01:10:16.307
[SPEAKER_02]: So I can see him jumping way up rankings too.

01:10:16.447 --> 01:10:16.708
[SPEAKER_02]: So.

01:10:16.688 --> 01:10:26.490
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, a lot of fun upside guys here and the top of pitching project rankings next year, I look a lot different than this year, given all the graduations upcoming.

01:10:26.951 --> 01:10:28.254
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm that's going to wrap us up.

01:10:28.274 --> 01:10:30.198
[SPEAKER_02]: Tim, thank you so much for joining me.

01:10:30.258 --> 01:10:32.182
[SPEAKER_02]: Always a pleasure talking with you.

01:10:32.383 --> 01:10:35.710
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, what are you going on over at in the MLB data warehouse?

01:10:36.280 --> 01:10:38.645
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, we've just been releasing rankings.

01:10:38.905 --> 01:10:44.316
[SPEAKER_01]: So I've been posting my rankings slow dripping on X if you want them for free.

01:10:44.736 --> 01:10:46.881
[SPEAKER_01]: It's gonna be a pain to the bot to try to collect them that way.

01:10:46.901 --> 01:10:54.255
[SPEAKER_01]: If you actually want them like in a nice organized way, you can pay for it over there, 29, 99 from my prospect package.

01:10:54.235 --> 01:11:00.723
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to give you all my rankings and it gives you a bunch of draft cheat cheats to for dynasty and stuff like that.

01:11:00.783 --> 01:11:05.970
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you want my cheat cheats to have F scores on all of them and it's all heat match with F scores.

01:11:06.030 --> 01:11:15.062
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're into F scores and you want to use them for drafting purposes, that's a nice easy way to get it, you know, less than a lunch out right now to get all that data.

01:11:15.042 --> 01:11:25.396
[SPEAKER_01]: And also, we're doing Doc and I have been doing positional rankings for dynasty, getting some wrangers on to do some prospect stuff.

01:11:25.416 --> 01:11:29.882
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll be reaching out to you soon to try to get you onto one of these episodes here.

01:11:29.962 --> 01:11:32.546
[SPEAKER_01]: I had one heard on recently Jeff Pots.

01:11:33.127 --> 01:11:35.650
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of stuff going on over on the podcast side.

01:11:36.389 --> 01:11:36.890
[SPEAKER_02]: Awesome.

01:11:36.910 --> 01:11:38.853
[SPEAKER_02]: You absolutely check out Tim stuff.

01:11:39.153 --> 01:11:40.375
[SPEAKER_02]: But it's a lot of effort into it.

01:11:40.395 --> 01:11:41.216
[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of great stuff.

01:11:41.938 --> 01:11:48.147
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, on Twitter slash x at finnesee a-spall, the Prosper Data Warehouse, check that out.

01:11:48.508 --> 01:11:51.773
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, he links all that in his bio and various posts as well.

01:11:52.274 --> 01:12:02.329
[SPEAKER_02]: And check all of my stuff, all my rankings are live, my redirect rankings, Prosper Dynastee, FYPD, all updated with the in the last couple of weeks over on my Patreon, toolshippancy.com.

01:12:02.309 --> 01:12:07.844
[SPEAKER_02]: Check out Rotaball or again promo code new 30% off there, what a great stuff and the premium package.

01:12:08.305 --> 01:12:15.525
[SPEAKER_02]: And I'll be back with you again later this week for the SP Dynasty episode, but until then, everyone take care.

