[SPEAKER_01]: Hello and welcome to Baseball America's Draft podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: I am Carlos Colazzo joined by Special Guest, Editor-in-Chief, JJ Cooper, what's up, JJ?
[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, Carlos.
[SPEAKER_00]: Long time no talk.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is very cool to have you on the draft pod.
[SPEAKER_01]: I actually don't know how often we've had you on the draft and podcast specifically.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that feels like an error on my end.
[SPEAKER_00]: You've got enough.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's enough people to do this that you do not need me.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the last time I was on is I hosted the mock draft where we went 40 picks deep and before last year's draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, well, that's a good one.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I wanted to have you on to kind of get your insight into this draft class.
[SPEAKER_01]: You also wrote a story this week that I feel is very relevant to the draft and maybe Could be instructive and how teams are evaluating prospects or evaluating timelines will get into that.
[SPEAKER_01]: in the next segment.
[SPEAKER_01]: But first, I wanted to just kind of get your sense of the draft class, because people who have listened to this draft pod have heard what I think about the draft, they've heard what Jacob thinks about the draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure people who are listening to this draft podcast also listen to future projections.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Ben, I've been talking about this class for a while.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I know you've been watching a lot of college baseball over the last two weeks.
[SPEAKER_01]: You've had conversations with scouts about this class.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you've expressed your excitement about
[SPEAKER_01]: Since of the 26 class, a group that was build very positively came into the year with great reviews based on our scouting director feedback and our preseason poll, what are your just overall thoughts in the class of this stage from where you sit?
[SPEAKER_00]: I get really excited any year that we have.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I feel like this is one of those rare years where you come into the season and you have someone who you're like, wow, this could really be one of those years.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, not every one of those years does that end up coming true that way, but most of the time it does, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: In my time at BA, the ones that kind of come to mind this way.
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, I think it starts with its crossburg and Harper, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Where in both of those cases, you had someone coming in, it's like, this is the guy, this is the number one prospect.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the dust cleared, and it was like, yeah, this guy's sitting in one prospect.
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, you have to have that, the GM usually always has to have that we're looking at all the options.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're keeping our eyes open, you know, and all that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But those are so much more enjoyable than the flip side is like the map busier, which ended up, by the way, Justin Verlander was in that class.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that was the year where the podges are like, our options are we're looking at this.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they got to the very end.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it was like, ah, we'll take map bus.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's close.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's nearby.
[SPEAKER_00]: He wants to play here.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, all that, and you're like, wow, that was kind of underwhelming.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those two obviously come to mind.
[SPEAKER_00]: We always talk you and I've talked about it because this was true.
[SPEAKER_00]: This was one that we covered together looking back is like the Adley Rushman here, which ended up being, and now we could call it the Bobbywood Junior year, and oh yeah, my way, Adley went one.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the Adley Rushman year where it's like, you had this college catcher who was extremely athletic, who was extremely productive, and came in kind of even with
[SPEAKER_00]: This is as comfortable a top prospect as you get.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like, and I want to do a little makeup or that I could get away with not doing because I've only set it in conversations with people like you and not publicly, but I'll own it anyway, which is,
[SPEAKER_00]: I got to be honest, though, I came into the season a little bit with a little bit of fractionalowski skepticism, not like, oh, this guy's not a good prospect or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But some skepticism of college shortstop is not normally the profile that produces big league stars.
[SPEAKER_00]: You have to go back.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say to at the top of the draft, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying that there aren't any college shortstop who end up being stars, but
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at it, no, I mean, the most of the best short stops in the big leagues, this is not their path, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: We did have the Danesby Swanson Alex Breggman year, which is more than a decade ago now, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Great trailer, but, but those are, you know, if you said, who have been the most productive short stops of the last 10, 15 years, I would say that you would have to throw Francisco in door, you would have to throw Cory Seeger, you would have to throw
[SPEAKER_00]: There's more high school, there's more international, mainly high school website, but there's more other paths than there are the college, largely because usually the best short stops don't get to college, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.
[SPEAKER_00]: And when they do, even when they do, like Matt McLean was one who was a first-round pick coming out of high school got to college comes out and he's still a first-round pick, but it's like, okay, again, it's still something where they're a little bit more limited.
[SPEAKER_00]: Brooks Lee, you know, is a little bit more limited.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is the maya culpa, though, because Watch Rock, Chalowski and you're like,
[SPEAKER_01]: So kind of drilling into this when you mentioned it, it's interesting to hear.
[SPEAKER_01]: Were your reservations with rock purely from that kind of demographic standpoint?
[SPEAKER_01]: Was there anything in the profile that you were like, yeah, I don't know about this aspect of his game or was it purely like, we don't see it this often.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so because of that, I just, I want to see it a little bit more because I think that makes both of those could make some sense.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there are some cracks.
[SPEAKER_01]: in Rock's game.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard for those to surface at this point more two weeks into the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't really faced up well to be fair.
[SPEAKER_01]: They play to TCU team and he looked good.
[SPEAKER_01]: But in general, I always like to like take.
[SPEAKER_01]: Take a few weeks, let the hitters get some time.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we see it every year.
[SPEAKER_01]: There are players who go off before conference play in particular starts and then they start to fade a little bit down the stretch.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I was like to be patient, but I'm curious if there's anything in his game outside of the demographic question, the demographic and the other thing I would say and this is a again, we are I would say this is nitpicking the number one prospect in the game.
[SPEAKER_00]: The questions are I would say I would have a little bit I had a little bit of questions and we still have to have a little bit of these but hit tool with the wood bat right he has a very limited track record.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we have the cape didn't really hit and then we have USA baseball last year and let's just be clear very few of those guys hit a very short season hit and but he did not hit and if you said and we had guys who were out there more than I do I want to make clear but if you said and talking to evaluators who are out there it's like if you said who is the best hitter.
[SPEAKER_00]: on that college national team less, your best pure hitter, I've heard more Drew, you know, I've heard more, like, I've heard coming into this year's class a little bit more of maybe Drew Burris is the best pure hit, you know, hitter in this class more than rock.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, that is Drew Burris is one of the top prospects in this class.
[SPEAKER_00]: Rochalowski is a
[SPEAKER_00]: what you look for, how they build them shortstop as opposed to a, okay, this is a little bit unconventional outfielder, but those are like again, if you said where I kind of came in a little bit, like I would say, you know, I had a conversation with you after you saw Emerson and I was kind of asking about great Emerson like,
[SPEAKER_00]: That just feels like kind of like, could be the kind of guy that is a number one prospect.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then I'm looking at that now, and I'm going, okay, Brock Trilowski's a number one prospect.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that that's going to change over here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would be, again, we want to be patient.
[SPEAKER_00]: We will let the draft come.
[SPEAKER_00]: We will not prejudge.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do feel like that that's something where maybe I was,
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe my, I love to have ideas and then try to challenge them.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then try to see where it goes.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is one room like I had a hypothesis.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I feel like that already I'm like abandoning that hypothesis.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, sometimes I feel like the top player just kind of gets into that spot and then cruises the entire year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this does feel more like a 2019 sort of draft class to me.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you made this point pretty consistently throughout the 2019 cycle.
[SPEAKER_01]: That class, we talked about it a lot, but that class got critique because the depth wasn't good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you always came back and said, the depth is overrated.
[SPEAKER_01]: what you really need to separate a draft class is, in fact, talent at the top.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I feel like this 26 group has a sort of quasi-generational college prospect at a premium position at the top in Rock, Chalowski, who does feel a little bit Adly Ruchman-esque in the sense of like where he's at in terms of a tier of his own in the class.
[SPEAKER_01]: But beyond him, there's also a group of players that's really talented.
[SPEAKER_01]: We maybe don't have a Bobby Wood Jr.
[SPEAKER_01]: In this class, like we did in 2019, right behind Adly Ruchman,
[SPEAKER_01]: of this class is really talented, but circling back to maybe one of Rock's flaws.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think what what like I have kind of gone into the season wondering about and hoping to see him sort of solidify and improve is I think because he is a different sort of short-stop prospect, I found myself comparing him to the sort of contact skills and the pure hitting ability that guys from the 2024 class like JJ Weatherhold and Travis Bazana had offensively.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure that Rock
[SPEAKER_01]: ever will be that sort of contact hitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think because of the power he provides, because of the defensive ability he provides.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's in another league compared to weather hold and in Travis was on at the same time.
[SPEAKER_01]: In terms of what he can do defensively, I just ultimately don't know that that's going to matter.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we're seeing it play out early this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I guess at the end of the year,
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll really be curious and like, what is the overall contact rate look like in the zone contact rate in particular.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because rock has been a player in the past who's chased a little bit, but I also think we've just seen him evolve year by year has an offensive hitter that I'm not really concerned about any aspect of his game at this stage.
[SPEAKER_00]: Can I go back to the one our point like I will stay I stand with the idea that like when you hear about depth in the class depth in the class.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say, if you have a great top of your class, like I think it is easy to overrate how much there's going to be in a class, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And I, I'll give you a perfect example of this.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like, like, let's go from the worst case to the best, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: There is no first round pick, top 30 pick.
[SPEAKER_00]: from the 2016 draft, who has produced 10 war, be warrior so far.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, that doesn't mean it won't happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that you could say that maybe coal Reagan, who's at like seven and a half gets there, maybe Gavin Lux kind of edges over that, but,
[SPEAKER_00]: To be honest, most of these guys, they're never getting there, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's O for 30.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now that doesn't mean there aren't big leagueers that doesn't mean that there aren't guys that I loved.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just did a study about the top 100 and I want to emphasize to people.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you draft a first rounder and get five war out of them, that's not a terrible result.
[SPEAKER_01]: One thing that's been cleared of me as we've done the redrafts we've done in the past few years is how quickly you get beyond the everyday regulars and get into, hey, these are good relievers who are going in the first round on a redraft because they're productive relievers.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I definitely think people's expectations for what a success in the draft is, and especially what a success in the first round is are far far too high.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say a normal, they're about four times too high.
[SPEAKER_00]: They think we got a guy who made three war.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's terrible.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, actually that's probably, right, probably top 50 to 60% in a normal class.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I always love to use example.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's literally, and I'm going to blank on which year it is.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the Billy Roudreff, like a seven.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that literally Tommy Fam is the only productive drafted and signed high school hitter in the entire class.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I apologize Travis Snyder.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to argue Travis Snyder feel free, that's it.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're done.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, if you want to argue in an else, it's a conger and conger was a good catcher, but not like a bat.
[SPEAKER_00]: That is the entirety of the class as far as productive hitters.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the 2006 class.
[SPEAKER_01]: I believe it's 2007 was Jason Hayward.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 2006 was the pitcher.
[SPEAKER_01]: The pitcher draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, but to give the example, so I said, there was zero, 10 war players so far in 2016, 2019, which obviously we have fewer years, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Or of the top six picks are already at 10 war.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and by the way, Bobby Woods over 20, Adler Rushman's over 15, Rally Green and CJ Abrams over 10.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then if you go beyond that, Rice and Stots at 10 Corbin Carils at 15 Anthony Volpi's at 8 he'll get their George Kirby's at 8 he'll get their Shay Lang Alir's at 8 basically he'll get their Nicoladolo's at 8 and a half he'll probably get there.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the 2019 draft is so refreshing to me because
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like there is, and I saw this in some replies to a story you did about Connor Griffin.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like there is sometimes this mentality that's scouting has gotten worse because you can pick out some drafts that just haven't paned out, but all those 2019 names are guys that were there as a top.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bobby would junior was the number two prospect consensus in the class.
[SPEAKER_01]: Adley Ruchman was there, Corbin Carroll, top 15 prospect, Riley Green in that top tier CJ abams in that top tier Bryson's dot like at the top Nicola like it's just nice to see because we see failure in the draft so often well it's nice to see a draft where like all the guys at the top those are all the guys that we had at the top at the time oh also say though so that's 2019 right I will throw another hypothesis that I haven't fully developed out but I believe is it theory.
[SPEAKER_00]: Our real problem is, is if you look at it's the 2020, 2021, 2022 drafts, more than anything.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you say, why are those?
[SPEAKER_00]: those were the hardest drafts because it's an entire lost 2020 season basically.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you say, wow, that 2020 draft, there's just some, you know, some real misses at the top of that draft.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would 100% agree with you that a draft that had Spencer Turkelson, Heston, Kierstead, Max Meyer, A-Solacy, Austin, Martin, Emerson,
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not how you'd line it up now.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that actually I would say makes an argument for why you need the totality of the story, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: You didn't have it that year.
[SPEAKER_00]: You didn't have it where you could actually evaluate these players over the course of their full amateur careers because there was a roadblock.
[SPEAKER_00]: And even when you go to 21, I would say,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, that's the Henry Davis jackwriter, Jackson, Joe, Marcello, Myra Colton, Couser class, that's still like there's this big gap, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because you are building out the story of these players.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that even stretches into 22.
[SPEAKER_00]: By 23, it really isn't, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Teams are not even.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no college player who was
[SPEAKER_00]: basically a top prospect who was in college in 2020.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those guys were largely like, you got to see them in 2021, 2022 and then 23, the high school class you really hadn't even, I would argue kind of a value-aided that group at that point.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's Paul Scheme's Dylan Cruz, Max Clark, White Langford, Walker Jenkins, Jacob Wilson, Rett Lauder, you know, like, that's more of what we're again talking about, where you're like, okay,
[SPEAKER_00]: And now we're still early enough that we haven't seen what Walker Jenkins is going to do in the big leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: We haven't seen Mac Clark, but you feel, obviously, Paul schemes went one.
[SPEAKER_00]: We feel pretty good about that one right now, but you feel much better about that.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would say it is a perfect example of how you need, like if you lose, you can have some data, right, you can have like here's what his workout was like, but not getting the data and the evaluations from a full season.
[SPEAKER_01]: And just the performance.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and the performance.
[SPEAKER_00]: Think about like right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like right now as we speak, when we look at this class, yes, about this class.
[SPEAKER_00]: So much is changing.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're not trying to be go overboard and react too quickly.
[SPEAKER_00]: But we have Cameron fluky as the top picture on our board right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: And Cameron fluky did not pitch in fall ball.
[SPEAKER_00]: It basically has made one start, and then now he's going to miss, but it looks like hopefully only half the season.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's rib injury.
[SPEAKER_00]: I can tell you right now, I promise you this.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, you know, I'm not speaking you are much more in charge of how we order this up.
[SPEAKER_00]: I can promise you that the next time we update it, Cam Fluke is not going to be our top pitch on the board because we have other pictures who are, while we have no idea of Cam Fluke, what he's going to be looking like until he gets back on the mound.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have other pictures like Jackson Flora and all, where you're like, we're seeing it, we're seeing it, you know, we know what he's doing.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the board moves,
[SPEAKER_00]: So much as the season goes along.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think even like even if you just look to see how much the season matters, you can almost just look at like how often our players moving on our updates.
[SPEAKER_01]: We do them basically monthly once the season starts to get rolling.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you've only ever looked at like the top 100 updates, you might think that the draft ranking updates are kind of extreme in the sort of movement that you get up and down the board.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I just do think that is part of the process.
[SPEAKER_01]: of the draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's so much uncertainty at this stage and players are changing so rapidly, and we have to constantly be updating our priors and what we think about players and just like saying, hey, this pitcher's throwing an entirely new pitch.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a new velocity threshold this player has reached.
[SPEAKER_01]: This player's playing a new position.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, and he's also not hitting now.
[SPEAKER_01]: How does that impact our evaluating this player?
[SPEAKER_01]: So the constant feedback loop definitely leads to
[SPEAKER_01]: there's just a lot you have to kind of track and follow that makes the board hopefully better and for that 2020 class we basically got none of that we got to think for weeks of the college season.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean like I'm sitting there and if you look right like if you look at old list for us and you say okay like
[SPEAKER_00]: Like when we were at the very start, like there are guys who didn't change much, like if you look at an old list, and then there are other guys who you're like, oh.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I mean, to take up perfect example of this, if you go back to our 2019 list, that was a high, you know, Spencer Jones was in high school at that time.
[SPEAKER_00]: And Spencer Jones started that year as a top 30 pick, believe it was a pitcher.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then kind of slid down the boards, he got hurt.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so he still got to go back to 100.
[SPEAKER_00]: The flip side of that is, is that, like, J. J. Blade was the back of the list at the start of that year and ended up in the top 10.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, you know, he's been up being okay, you know, I wouldn't say he's been,
[SPEAKER_00]: how Star Wars started that year at 30 and ended up at a hundred.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, there is a lot of movement that happens in season.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, again, both ways, there are guys who that we could absolutely kind of throw the question out now and say, why did we move that guy on?
[SPEAKER_00]: Are those our guys just like, wow, I'm really glad we moved that guy on.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes I kind of look back at this and sometimes I do think that the guys who move so much in season, that's probably where there are more misses, Hunter Bishop was not in our initial top 100 that year and you need up top 10.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're saying, be wary of those places.
[SPEAKER_00]: Be wary of that.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at, again, we are now far enough away, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you said, who are the guys who really flew up the board?
[SPEAKER_00]: 2019, there's another guy who stands out for that.
[SPEAKER_00]: There was out in California.
[SPEAKER_00]: There was a fresh, and he was so bio.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then there was a senior.
[SPEAKER_00]: He only cover code.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, wow.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he went from off the board to a first-round pick.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say to go back to what we're saying here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just selling his steel haul stock, I guess, after that.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a reclass, I'm not sure if that factor is the last time you think kind of changes it, but like, if you do look at some of these guys who like, okay, the biggest pop up who didn't like fly up the board, he ended up, I believe at 73, but yours is felt as was a guy who popped up that year, right, like Hunter barco kind of moved up a little bit during the season, like, you know, I would say.
[SPEAKER_00]: The guys who have the biggest movement in season, not that there's no success stories there, but I do think that there is something instructive that often you can talk yourself into a good year and then the tools and all that, but you have less of a pop-up guy, you have less of that track record with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Of course of a resume.
[SPEAKER_00]: Where you can get frustrated with the lack of improvement with the guy who's just been good for years.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're like, yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there are some teams that in their models, they factor in track record and length of performance history pretty heavily and just are much less willing to take these sort of pop-up types.
[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly in priority places on the board, like Xavier Isaac is maybe a notable pop-up example who went in the first round.
[SPEAKER_01]: There are some teams who like, no matter what their e-values would have been in the spring, they just wouldn't have taken him in that range because they're track record of history on the player.
[SPEAKER_01]: Didn't warn them taking their they just like fill us off ugly would have been against doing that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I do think it's interesting to think through how different teams handle those players and what's also maybe interesting to to think through maybe pivot to is a story you wrote this week JJ on the site I think you've been on top of this for a number of different stories, but you have another one to it
[SPEAKER_01]: not today this week five reasons why it will be prospects are getting to the major faster than ever you kind of took a look at how this is tracking for hitters, pitchers, college players, high school players, the minor, whatever demographic you are, players are spending less and less time in the minor leagues before they get to the majors.
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think there's any takeaway from that like seeing that happen now for multiple years?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is there any sort of shift in draft strategy that teams should be doing because of that?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure there are some teams that we'd be very clearly seen seems like the angels prioritize.
[SPEAKER_01]: Fast to the majors players, but I'm curious if like maybe you could take it in the opposite direction and say, hey, like even the high school players these days, your ETA, you need to re like refit in your mind what a typical ETA is for certain players.
[SPEAKER_00]: This goes back to something else that you and I've been talking about that we talked about last year,
[SPEAKER_00]: I do believe it for now.
[SPEAKER_00]: We are now at the point where I do not for the full draft.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but if you're drafting at the top of the draft, the old adage of you do not, this is the majorly baseball draft.
[SPEAKER_00]: You do not draft for need.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I would say if you draft for need rather than talent, you are being, you are doing something really stupid.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that,
[SPEAKER_00]: The old idea of draft these guys, but then you're not even giving thought to when they're going to arrive because you're just hoping they develop and if it's five years, it's five years, that's out now, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like to take the extreme example, another story put up yesterday, like, okay, he's a special case.
[SPEAKER_00]: But Connor Griffin, at this time two years ago,
[SPEAKER_00]: We, you know, we would Connor Griffin was basically 2024.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, okay, this guy, no one at this point would have said, there was, I'm sorry, the Connor Griffin's family would not have said.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think he's going to be in spring training in 26 and we'll see if he makes it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
[SPEAKER_00]: They roster.
[SPEAKER_00]: That didn't seem.
[SPEAKER_00]: favorable.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like that seemed impossible.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that 24 class Connor Griffin would have been in the the the the filum of player that's a really special athlete that you're going to need to take time with be patient with if you want someone who's quickly, you have truly content, you have Travis Buzana, you have JJ witherl, you have Nick Kurtz and to Nick Kurtz's credit, he kind of hammered home on that assessment of him, but you definitely would not have thought Connor Griffin,
[SPEAKER_00]: But so what I would say with that, though, is then again, doesn't mean everyone's gonna move quick.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think so like, okay, this is what we said about Lv last year's class.
[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't mean like if you're the white socks, obviously you're not just drafting talent, but the white socks while they are trying to improve, the white socks are not something where they look at it right now and say, you know, I feel like that we are, we are one wise pickaway from, you know, from contemporary, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like that's not take the best talent and when he arrives, he arrives, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: But if I'm the raise, if I'm the pirates, you know,
[SPEAKER_00]: if I'm the royals, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: These are teams.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think all three of those teams would expect would be going into the 2027 season, saying we expect to contend for a playoff spot.
[SPEAKER_00]: If that's the case, not that you draft the guy to fit that, but when you say that you now can realistically think that there is the chance that I player you draft this lie
[SPEAKER_00]: could at least in the second half of the season, Nick Kurtz was faster than that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Camp Smith wasn't great, but he was faster than that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Zack Netto was faster than that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we could go down a list of guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: Paul Scheme's was faster than that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you're now saying, so really good class, if we're taking a college guy, we think that he could make an impact by middle of the second half of the next season.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, then you should be able,
[SPEAKER_00]: We're this position away and we know they're probably not going to try to fill that in free agency.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it starts to become a little bit of a factor in your decision at least because you're not talking about, oh, we can't project that.
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't know what our roster is going to look like four or five years from now.
[SPEAKER_00]: The college guys are moving way faster than that now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would hope teams only ever use that as a decisive factor in their picks.
[SPEAKER_01]: If it's a scenario where, and I think this happens more often than people think it does, there is a collection of players in the same tier where there's not really a significant difference in how the room is viewing the talent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So in that case, let's say you've got one high school picture, and then you got a college hitter that you think are equivalent talents, you view them for the same bonus
[SPEAKER_01]: the ETA comes in, but I would even say like to push back further against it, like the pirates are maybe the most interesting team here.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're picking 6th overall in 2026, like how their draft philosophy or strategy changes will be really fascinating because they seem to have been one of the few teams picking inside the top 10.
[SPEAKER_01]: that are just willing to take on more risk and more of an assumed timeline and they've gotten great successes because of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like because they are less scared off of Connor Griffin's risk factor, they took him at nine and they're the beneficiaries in 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: They were one of the few teams who leading up to the draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: We heard they're not afraid of taking Seth Hernandez.
[SPEAKER_01]: We had them link to Seth Hernandez the entire time, talking to people who were like in the discussions for that pick.
[SPEAKER_01]: They were like, yeah, we just really wanted to shoot for upside here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think like in contrast to the angel strategy, that has turned into franchise altering players for the pirates.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think that like if the pirates get to a point where like we're ready to compete now, I would not want them to change that strategy
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say this, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what I'm saying.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is a factor.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a small one, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: To take an example, if you were in the
[SPEAKER_00]: 2024 draft, right, we're just talking about.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, Connor Griffin, let's take him out of this for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, Connor Griffin's development is going to be, Connor Griffin is already moving right now into the mic trout category, where it's like, if you mic trout, mic trout was the perfect story, the one that was awful for everyone, because almost every team had a pig before mic trout.
[SPEAKER_01]: And even the angels had a pig before mic trout.
[SPEAKER_00]: So every team out there, the question was like, were you in on trout?
[SPEAKER_00]: To a trend, some teams were like, no, we really weren't.
[SPEAKER_00]: But a lot of teams like, you know, it came down.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was like, drought, and this guy, and we went that way, and maybe it was just on trial.
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're like, wow, apparently that just kept happening all through the first round.
[SPEAKER_00]: On a Griffin, it's picked ninth, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: There's not nearly as many teams, but...
[SPEAKER_00]: Connor Griffin is edging towards the direction of now where it's like, we'll be five years for now, there'll be questions like, wait, so you could have taken Connor Griffin, like, oh, that's already happening, JJ.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're already getting questions with people like, how did, how did, like, the way it was phrased to me in a recent draft chat, which I'm not sure is,
[SPEAKER_01]: is like entirely fair to the industry, but people are asking, how did so many teams miss on Connor Griffin?
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think anyone missed on Connor Griffin.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the player Connor Griffin was at the time was very obvious to everyone.
[SPEAKER_01]: The question was just,
[SPEAKER_01]: How can you know for a certainty that Connor Griffin is going to address the biggest question mark that has unlocked everything about the profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the one question that you can only answer in hindsight.
[SPEAKER_01]: There are so many players who've had the same issue or to even in even greater degree.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's too easy to spot check drafts after the fact and say, well, obviously they shouldn't know about this player, because for every corner Griffin, I think there are many Montgomerys, and I think there are Elijah Greens.
[SPEAKER_01]: There are players who had all the athleticism of the world, all the tools in the upside in the world, and that hit toolpiece just didn't come, whether that is because of player development, whether that is because of something that the hitter does, whether that is the aptitude of the hitter, sometimes it just doesn't work out,
[SPEAKER_01]: There's quite literally every single draft you could go back to and say, why did every team miss on X player?
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't know that there is a take away from the Connor Griffin story to say, like, oh, what can Scouts change in the future to not miss?
[SPEAKER_01]: You're just always going to miss, I think.
[SPEAKER_00]: What I would say with that is that Connor Griffin, it's gonna be that.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's gonna be that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone's like, well, how did you not, how did the party's not taking one?
[SPEAKER_00]: But I would say, how did, you know, how did he not go to?
[SPEAKER_00]: How did he not go three?
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I would say with that is,
[SPEAKER_00]: to what you just said.
[SPEAKER_00]: There were real hit to a question.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the ones that Connor Griffin himself has said,
[SPEAKER_00]: I had to go that off season and rework my swing.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the afternoon to rework your swing and to go from your hit tool is your biggest question to I'm going to hit 330 in low-A, high-A, and double-A in my first pro-year is one of those transformation plainly shortstop, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Where you go, an elite center field, too, by the way.
[SPEAKER_00]: And where you go, wow, OK?
[SPEAKER_00]: Mike Trout.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can, part of it is, Mike Trout was in New Jersey and it was tough to evaluate a player in New Jersey.
[SPEAKER_00]: But there really are, again, there is a, there's kind of this, I would say that realistically, with not with hindsight, but looking into it, going into it,
[SPEAKER_00]: His upper range was probably in that four or five range because you did have.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, me and Ben brought this up in a recent podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm curious if you disagree.
[SPEAKER_01]: If the pirates were picking one, there's no way Connor Griffin would have been the pick.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they might be able to tell you that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you would have to pass on Condon, Bazana, Kaglion, JJ Weatherhol, Chase Burns and Hagan Smith, by the way, who were at different team.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe harder to compare.
[SPEAKER_01]: But like, it wasn't as if the industry was like,
[SPEAKER_01]: there are no good hitters here.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to pass on kind of griffin because we don't think he hit enough.
[SPEAKER_01]: There are a lot of really highly regarded hitters.
[SPEAKER_01]: Some of which have pinned out some of whom have not yet, but I just don't think there's any universe where
[SPEAKER_01]: but Connor Griffin was the first pick in that draft.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I would say though is is that when you do kind of look back on it, it's like, to go back to your point that you asked me that I've really done a terrible job of answering quickly which is when you say the pirate changing, I think that this is a factor, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: The way I would use these, go back to that 24 class and you say, okay, if you were a team picking at the top of that dress class and you're like,
[SPEAKER_00]: We think Bazana, Weatherhold, and Nick Kurtz are our guys, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: There's these three college bats.
[SPEAKER_00]: We think they're all in the same tier.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's some level where you say, OK, well, what is what is it going to take to sign them?
[SPEAKER_00]: How much is that going to save for real?
[SPEAKER_00]: But to take an extreme example of this, if you said, we think we're a playoff team.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I would say normally people are going to lean to the middle in filters, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, if you think whether or not shortstop, you're going to be like, okay, I'll stick shortstop or first, but I would say to flip that, though, if you said, we really believe Nick Kurtz is a dominating power hitter.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know what, we don't have right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, okay, to take an example of the pirates, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: If the pirates were picking in a scenario and there's a Nick Kurtz, like on the board next year at six.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe there will be.
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're like, you know, that would actually really
[SPEAKER_00]: We think that he's every bit as good as these other guys, but there's a slight advantage to it too, which is he will fix a problem that we have.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's where I'm saying, I am not saying it anyway.
[SPEAKER_00]: The pirate should not look at it and say, what is our biggest need for 27?
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, we're taking that in the, you know, with our pick.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm saying that, whereas I would say that 10 years ago, you wouldn't even consider the possibility of that.
[SPEAKER_00]: to take another version of it, to take the short stop who cares, can take short stop, and you can't play short stop, you move them, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: But for instance, if the Orioles right now, to take, they're not picking at the top, but if they were, and you said, hey, they've got multiple guys on their board, and they're gonna take this fast-moving college outfielder.
[SPEAKER_00]: My question to that would be, okay, and your plan to play that player is, what, you know, but again, I know Taylor Ward's going to, you know, that's one year deal on all this,
[SPEAKER_00]: Kyleroneel, but to my point being, if you're already jammed up at a position and it's what position where, well, we're drafting a left-handed, throwing, you know, outfielder and you're like, well, he's a corner outfielder and we got four of those.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think that now you have to look at at least a little bit more because you don't have that, oh, it'll work its way out.
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the things that this study kind of showed, the thing that jumps out about it is if you don't have to college guy, what's changed is partly his reorganization of the miners, if you don't have to college guy, he's not going to play in the complex.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's probably not going to play in low-way.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only a very little sample of like maybe right after you sign, but your first full season is high end of late, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're going to start in high a probably where you're first full season.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you have a good start, you're going to then bump to double a.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well,
[SPEAKER_00]: The point of this is, if you're in triple A to start the following season, and that means that you are, you are ready for the call at any moment, and we've seen this now with again, it's not just one player, it's why it laying for it as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of these guys now a number of these players that should say at least that that's the case, you at least have to start thinking, okay, what we don't want to do is if we're really, really full at one position.
[SPEAKER_00]: where we don't we don't want to just be stacking up guys at triple A and my point of that is is that
[SPEAKER_00]: They stack up much quicker now than they would have where five, 10 years ago, it had been like, 10 years ago, it had been like, well, that's not really a problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: Gonna go to short season ball his first year when he's drafted.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're sending him to low A, he'll get to high A for the second half of his first full season.
[SPEAKER_00]: Double A, the following year, maybe gets to triple A at the end of the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then he gets to triple A.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's far enough out that you're not having to think of these things.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's three years down the road.
[SPEAKER_00]: Who knows, what's gonna happen three years down the road?
[SPEAKER_00]: In a lot of these cases like we just talked about that class right curts is up.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would expect that Condon that weather halt that Bazana will all be in AAA to start the season like yep.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the 2020 for Conner Griffiths either going to be in AAA or in the majors.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the 2024 draft class and my point being is is if you draft those guys high in 24.
[SPEAKER_00]: you have to have an idea of where they're going to fit on your AAA roster and the big leagues in 26.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a much faster time table used to have.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, that'll make sense.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think a lot of teams are probably already started drafting with kind of some of these ideas in mind.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's why you see so many teams have super college heavy drafts in the first place.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think maybe even to the point where
[SPEAKER_01]: Some teams can zig while everyone else is zagging and maybe find just more explosive talent that's being passed on because of some of these time and considerations.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's a great piece about the brewers and like, I mean, I just got done recording an Orioles deep dive and that was, you know, we're talking about Nate George and like there are talents to be found later on because opportunities are created.
[SPEAKER_00]: But at the flip side of that is like when you look at, we said this is a good high school class,
[SPEAKER_00]: we have three high school players currently in the top 10 and we have three high school players currently in the top 14 of this crack of this class right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, again, we do think that college guys are going and there's going to be a lot of college guys who go off the board in the top 15 picks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, here's a question I have for you that's more specific to the 2026 class JJ after having some kind of macro level strategic talk.
[SPEAKER_01]: Brock Chalas obviously won one.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're picking two, who must excite you after Brock Chalaski?
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a conversation that I've been having.
[SPEAKER_01]: with a lot of people in recent days, me and Ben talked about number three in particular because we both have Rochilowski, we've got great Emerson like our board has.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then so maybe the question is if you also think grade two, I kind of agree.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say three because I do, I've right now, again, early, but right now, Brady Emerson, if you're picking two, I don't feel like that you're going to, I know that you're not going to get rock, but if you're the rays and you get great Emerson at two, I don't think that you're shaking your head and going,
[SPEAKER_01]: I think in another draft class, gradie Emerson is a perfectly legitimate one.
[SPEAKER_01]: One, I think if he was eligible a year ago, he probably would have gone over Eliwell, that's one one.
[SPEAKER_00]: After that, that's where it gets really interesting.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's where, because that's where, okay.
[SPEAKER_00]: To an extent you said, like, we want to be cautious.
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't want to overdo it.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're in non-conference play and all that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Everything you say about that with, okay, we think rocks one.
[SPEAKER_00]: Justin Lebron, I would say you could multiply everything that you just said there are a lot of 20.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's go.
[SPEAKER_01]: I love this because I thought you were definitely going to be going into the Jackson Floor pitching direction.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the fact that you said Justin Lebron makes me very excited, that's the player that both of me have been centered on as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're we're infatuated with the upside, but maybe you're about to say, and I wouldn't take him.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm saying, that's the guy who I need.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want the totality of the season to tell 100%.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it is, unfortunately, is maybe the most important of anyone in this top 15 ranges.
[SPEAKER_00]: OK, just like perfect example of this.
[SPEAKER_00]: Drew Burris, I expect Drew Burris to have a monster year, but we can say this for Drew Burris.
[SPEAKER_00]: If Drew Burris just has a fine year, kind of like JJ Weatherhold was injured, like JJ Weatherhold was the batting champ as a sophomore, and then had the hand to had the hamstring injury and missed a lot of his junior year.
[SPEAKER_00]: But at the end of the day, you're like, do you think JJ Weatherhold's gonna hit?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, well, when it's never not, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Drew Burris is gonna hit.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't have a whole lot of question about that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, every other tool like I would say advantage might be Justin Lebron, so what I want to know is give me more time to see
[SPEAKER_01]: how the contact, Fiji, how dare you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Your answer is nuance and rational.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want this to play itself out.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have to pick now.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I was going to say with that is, is though, that's where I think I do think that three is kind of a great step again.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to be one.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to pick one.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to just say, I don't have a tough decision to make.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just say, for all the way talks to into a matter of year ago that they were locked out of a lottery pick, you're very excited.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now that you were locked out of a lottery.
[SPEAKER_00]: I made a joke with the, I've noticed like I follow future socks, you know, white socks, you know, site and their social media is a rock stuff right now as they do.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's to the point now we're like regardless of what happened.
[SPEAKER_01]: Almost almost regardless of what happened.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe if like rock says he hates baseball and retirees, they wouldn't feel this way, but like any other universe if rock is not the pick, they're going to be a lot of disappointed white science fans.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I would
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, we could see like Jackson Flora, like I do think that there are multiple pictures here who absolutely could work themselves into that discussion, but we also don't have a ton of them who've done it so far.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I do.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I feel like.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, or it's kind of the one that's put his foot forward, and in both improved and also performed like Cam Flukis first game looked every bit what I expected Cam Fluki to be yeah he let it back to back home runs but other than that was same stuff he carved good strikes but now he's injured so that's a question mark how much time is he going to miss what's he going to look like when he gets back and I think our our third pitching candidate in the top 10 here Liam Peterson has actually not looked too great the first two weeks I wrote about this on the site you can you can read about it if you want but.
[SPEAKER_01]: His big question is, how is the strike throwing going to look and he's a continued taking strides?
[SPEAKER_01]: And at least in the first two starts very early, he's regrets in that category.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just need him to throw the ball over the plate more.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, I feel like if you're not taking Flora 3, you're not taking a pitcher really at all at three at this stage.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd post it this way.
[SPEAKER_00]: You just said, like, if Grady Embersov's in last year's class, he'd go one-one, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: If Dax Whitney is in this year's class, I think he's number two in the class, no doubt.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a Rock Chilowski in Dax Whitney show.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, that's what he might be.
[SPEAKER_01]: I said this on future rejection.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what he is probably the best pitcher since Paul schemes in the draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know that that's particular, I just to say.
[SPEAKER_00]: My fear of him is just please stay healthy and keep reading it with every picture.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's absurd what he's doing.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you don't get decks.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I would say is it's like we have had some discouraging news already, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like Tyler Bell, I mean, I know Tyler Bell is kind of in that mid tier of the first round range.
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's a college shortstop who has pedigree.
[SPEAKER_00]: That was a second round pick out a high school who is going to miss significant time.
[SPEAKER_00]: We just talked about Camp Fluke as missing significant time.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that there are
[SPEAKER_00]: Liam Pearson hasn't been great.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that there are real concerns like okay I'm gonna be fascinated if I said Justin LeBron same thing with Derek Coriel where it's like I know he's good I don't but I want to see like I want the season to show how much impact he can create right I think ace freeze can really hit I want to know
[SPEAKER_00]: where he's gonna play like there's there's a lot of guys I feel like even in the top top half of the first round canvas right now where you're like okay this guy could be good but I feel like partly also because this class is pretty deep
[SPEAKER_00]: You wrote about Eric Booth recently, and it's like, again, that's another guy Eric Booth Jr. is another guy who we're like, let's see the totality of the season play out in a guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: But like, I do feel like that the outfielders in the middle of the teens on our rankings right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, let's see where they go.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like that this has this top tier where it's like rock has like these, the concrete set, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, yep.
[SPEAKER_00]: The worst scenario of a healthy rock chalowski is like that he's going to rank one probably.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a slight chance of two and I think three is like his floor of where a healthy rock chalowski.
[SPEAKER_00]: I can't imagine how we get the three.
[SPEAKER_00]: to be on.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of crazy to, to envisions.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was saying that Brady Emerson, a healthy Brady Emerson, he might fall because a college guy really emerges.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're all like he could fall to three, four.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's not falling out of the top five.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's done enough already at healthy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, this is all healthy for all these guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nothing off the field.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just, but assuming just standard, like there's nothing that comes up.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those guys aren't moving
[SPEAKER_00]: to like five to 15 on this list, I feel like could have a lot of movement.
[SPEAKER_00]: Part of the bugs.
[SPEAKER_00]: There are questions all out of those guys, but partly because there's also a lot of guys who could move up into that range too.
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree, and even guys like at 17 and 18, the College of Health Filters, Asia, Garcia, Virginia, and Sawyer, Charleston, and TCU, those are guys that we've had inside the top 10 at various points, but we moved them down preseason because of some of their questions.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think both of them,
[SPEAKER_01]: and maybe even especially Grossi are already addressing some of their questions like AJ Grossi's hit power combination is massively exciting he's gotten aggressive in in the most beneficial way I think for his profile so if he maintains that through conference play that's a bad that could easily fit and so the top five to my mind so there's just a lot of hitters and profiles that with strong seasons could quite easily get into this mix as we get closer to the draft.
[SPEAKER_00]: The other thing I would say though is like, you know, a kind of along those lines is we absolutely like,
[SPEAKER_00]: If you just use, I love that we have the data to kind of go back and look at like how the class evolves year by year, right, and if you're in free to class, we have, it should be every basically ranking in season.
[SPEAKER_01]: We have that internally.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if there's a way to see that on the site, but we have it at least, but I'm probably that something's worth building out at some point, but like.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say, and again, I think that I think that us having this conversation has already led me, I know a study I'm doing now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have the hypothesis and now I need to dive into it.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I was going to say is, is like, okay, this time last year, Liam Doyle was basically setting himself doing everything other than setting himself on fire to demonstrate that,
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, this was week, we're not working.
[SPEAKER_00]: We too, it was very early in that process.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I'm saying is there's going to be guys who absolutely, and by the way, at this point last year, we were already starting to write.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jay Slavielette, we don't know he was pre-season one, but he was a great, yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the whole point I'm trying to say what that is, is that
[SPEAKER_00]: There are guys like Gagewood who seemingly come almost out of nowhere into the first round.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, like far off on the top first round into the first round.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yep.
[SPEAKER_00]: But there is, there is more movement in this than I think a lot of times, you know, the challenge that you've got, you have to do it more than anyone else for us.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the challenge we're always trying to do here is both accurately reflect the movement without overreacting.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yep.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're listening to this, if you sometimes get upset of how we're changing guys, just know that, again, I'm not saying we have 100% hit rate on this, but we heard from a lot of people last year early in the year who are like,
[SPEAKER_00]: your way of reacting on J. Slavule.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we weren't, I just want to lay out.
[SPEAKER_01]: You weren't writing about that because you went to a game and said, I've never once you have never once like basically seen performance numbers and had that reaction.
[SPEAKER_01]: The reaction is almost entirely driven because scouts say, hey, this wing looks different.
[SPEAKER_01]: The athleticism is backed up.
[SPEAKER_01]: There are real questions here.
[SPEAKER_01]: we all have him lower because of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'd say the exact great case of how this is not, the case is Nick Kurtz his year.
[SPEAKER_01]: The first few weeks of Nick Kurtz season, his numbers were not good, but his abs were
[SPEAKER_01]: Rock Solid.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was hitting the ball really hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was just getting unlucky balls and play like the process involved in Nick Kurtz Early season Abies when his numbers did not look exceptional or were totally in line with what he was as a hitter And and I think that's maybe the best look I've had at a person
[SPEAKER_01]: where the performance was uninspiring, but I was super confident and the hitting ingredients.
[SPEAKER_01]: But to your point, I am also not personally going in there and saying, this is my evaluation.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm trying to collect as much feedback as I can for the industry to drive these moves.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I would say is, and this is not a knock on the draft mix and all who subscribe to us and read us and those who just follow on social media, you know?
[SPEAKER_00]: If we're not telling you stuff that sometimes you think is a little hasty, then we're not doing our jobs right because I watch this I love the NFL draft I pay attention to the NFL draft and I've actually now like because I get to work in this and knowing kind of how it operates like I now have the fun of being like with a buddy of mine and I'll get to like.
[SPEAKER_00]: late in the season in the NFL season because obviously their schedule is very different like the season ends and then they have all the evaluations and the combine and then they pick then they draft like six months after the season's over four months after the season's over I should say you know as opposed to baseball where it's like the season ends and it's like okay we're drafting yeah but
[SPEAKER_00]: And I say to them, I remember a couple years ago, it's like, I know that Jaden Daniels isn't showing up as being in consensus top 30 right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I promise you that guy would go in the top five picks, but just knowing how it works, it's like the way that industry and the NFL draft works on the media side is the, because the season ends and then you have all this time,
[SPEAKER_00]: the in-season rankings don't really always reflect everything.
[SPEAKER_00]: No one can watch every player who's a possible first-round pick.
[SPEAKER_00]: No one's talking to scouts to for every player.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so you understandably you're kind of slow, slow, slow, slow.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you get the season's over.
[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone watches the tapes like, oh, this is the top of the first-round pick.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the change is make.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're trying to do this in baseball where
[SPEAKER_00]: we hear it like you do hear where it's like here's what I'm concerned about here's what you got to watch and we do like sometimes we see it and then that leads us to ask questions too where's like have you seen this guy you know like we you see it and then you're like okay now I've got to go get more reporting on it but and I would say that that's where
[SPEAKER_00]: What's trickiest about this and what was hard, but we got to do that's where we're talking on scouts really matters is it's a little easier on the college side because the other piece, the other part of that piece that we went up at yesterday at Baseball America about players moving faster is now on the evaluative side.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's better information too from a data standpoint, which, and what I mean by that is, Nick Kurtz is a perfect example, this, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: In the story, I used Roman Anthony.
[SPEAKER_00]: Roman Anthony was promoted from low-A to high-A, and he was hitting 226, 376, 316.
[SPEAKER_00]: He had one of the worst batting average and slugging percentages of anyone in low-A at the time he was promoted.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the Red Sox promoted him because 42 games and they're looking at it and they're saying, the underlying what he's actually doing is not the stats haven't caught up to it yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: He is unlucky.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nick Kurtz, like you said in that scenario, was unlucky.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the thing about that is if you kind of now go to, and again, this doesn't mean that results don't matter at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you go to a more context neutral approach, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Where you say,
[SPEAKER_00]: is he swinging at the right pitches?
[SPEAKER_00]: Is he taking the pitches he should take?
[SPEAKER_00]: When he does, is he making contact in the zone?
[SPEAKER_00]: When he does, is he hitting the ball hard?
[SPEAKER_00]: Whether a guy makes a diving catch in right field or it goes for a triple or a double,
[SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't really change whether it was a good, you know, a good swing, a good process, it does change a good result right and that I would say the key thing about that is that that you can look at quicker right because instead of it being that you got unlucky and you ran into a good defense that stole three hits from you and it takes you a month to catch up for that.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're looking at it at a pitch by pitch basis, there's a bigger picture, and it's a little bit less context-pinit.
[SPEAKER_00]: But on the high school side, you don't have that same.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's all, that'll happen in the summer.
[SPEAKER_00]: On the high school side, you're now having to evaluate it much less on that kind of pitch by pitch.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're also facing guys who aren't giving you that same level of comfort of what you're facing.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's where I guess we're challenging, I think, too,
[SPEAKER_00]: talking to enough people to know which high school guys are moving up and down, which is a lot more based on, I would say kind of a little bit more, you know, traditional than where we now have this other information at the college side.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's a good look into just kind of the process that we go through here when building the board and kind of,
[SPEAKER_01]: gets me excited to continue doing it actually.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's probably going to wrap it for today, JJ, any other topics we didn't get to that you want to hit on.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like we've hit on some players.
[SPEAKER_01]: We hit on some strategy.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've hit on some draft building, draft board building, thoughts, been a fun, fun combo.
[SPEAKER_00]: So okay, I've got one, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: We just had, you know, we every year we have some reclassification.
[SPEAKER_00]: You mentioned steel hall, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we've had we have some
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, it's interesting about Connor Griffith, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, having, what's interesting about that to me is I wonder, and again, this would do a fun study at some point.
[SPEAKER_00]: The difference is in the evaluations based on the timing of the reclassification.
[SPEAKER_00]: And what I mean by that is, is that I know that there are a lot of times where there's kind of an indication coming, but
[SPEAKER_00]: to go back to the earlier point that we were talking about, right, which is we said like you don't have the full story.
[SPEAKER_00]: For a player who reclassifies like I would say let's say coming out of their junior season, so you know the whole summer, right, and then you know the whole season.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like you've got a little bit more of that full story than you do for a player who
[SPEAKER_00]: started, you know, like you thought was going to be in that following class.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then after the showcases are over.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, like you're leading into the season, you find out.
[SPEAKER_00]: I do wonder if those are a tougher evaluation from a standpoint of like even if you have been again, a good area scout is keeping tabs on next year's class and the class after that and all that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you can't, there's only so many hours in the day.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can't bear down as much on a guy
[SPEAKER_00]: And then if you find out that you don't, I wonder what you thought.
[SPEAKER_01]: I tend to agree.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think that just there are going to be some teams who's process works differently.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it is more reliant on those areas, guys, really getting the weeds and doing homework on players in future years.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think those teams are going to benefit from from going as deep as they do.
[SPEAKER_01]: And also putting themselves in a position to act on information that is maybe more heavily
[SPEAKER_01]: driven from area scout feedback, like there are some teams that even if they're area scout was doing all that legwork, if their national guys didn't get to see those looks the summer before, there would be a lot more hesitance in pulling the trigger on draft day for someone who reclassified during the spring.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe their heavy hitters didn't really see
[SPEAKER_01]: players like Jared Grindlinger who's a recent reclassification will break a catcher in this year's class who who reclassified after the showcase those are two players this year who throughout the summer showcase period were presumed to be 27 players like Logan Schmidt is maybe the opposite he's a reclass who reclassified prior to the summer so everyone was bearing down on him and focused on him throughout that cycle so I tend to think that like if you are going to reclassify
[SPEAKER_01]: it is more beneficial for you to do it earlier.
[SPEAKER_01]: At the same time, like maybe some of it is, hey, like I just performed really well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to be young for the class, like I play at a powerhouse program.
[SPEAKER_01]: People have seen me and Jared Grindlinger certainly does play at a warehouse program at Huntington Beach.
[SPEAKER_01]: His brother was also prominent prospect a year ago, so maybe you could say that he's a player who is a little bit of an exception because enough people have seen him.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I tend to agree generally with you that you want to be seen as much as you can by the industry as a whole and when they're focused on you for the current your draft class, but that hasn't stopped some prominent reclassification players from from going to get spots in the past and also for this year to change either the other thing that stands out as I do think the way that teens model.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, okay, so like if we're going like if someone's wondering, well, okay, well, obviously one one Eli Willis, you know, like, okay, cross cruise school craft steel hall.
[SPEAKER_00]: So like that's three very prominent picks from last year's class year before that kind of Griffin cam cam in it.
[SPEAKER_00]: There are a lot of players who are finding it like I get it though that from a for hitters, especially for the age thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're a hitter and all of a sudden, you're now going to be one of the youngest players.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, it does work for Connor Griffith.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, it's funny.
[SPEAKER_00]: Could we talk about Connor Griffith and then I had people asking me like, because I've got another piece about how Connor Griffith and do check it out at baseballamerica.com that Connor Griffith, if you mix up in their roster, pretty much will fit in a group of experience age and, you know, minor league experience in age with four players last 40 years.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those four players are King Griffith Jr. Alex Rodriguez, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto,
[SPEAKER_00]: Good group, but the thing of that is someone's like, well, what about Kevin McGonagall and it's like Connor Griffin even though he's one class after But Connor Griffin is 19 getting ready to turn 20 and Kevin McGonagall's 21 and a half because Kevin McGonagall did risk lead class fight.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean at the end of the day, if Connor Griffin is the player that we think he is
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not joking when I say reclassifying for him could earn him in free agency and additional $100 million because if he doesn't sign an extension and he does arrive this year as we expect, six years for now gets him to
[SPEAKER_00]: He'll be basically one of the youngest free agents that we've seen once.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you wonder why Juan Soto made so much money.
[SPEAKER_00]: Juan Soto is the last teenager to debut, teenager to debut in the big leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you do that, you then hit free agency at an age where it's like, oh,
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you have to say years of your prime still ahead of you, exactly.
[SPEAKER_00]: You paid so much more than the guy who's the college hitter who hits free agency at 29 is like, well, you've been good.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully you can hang on to it for a while, but it's the same thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, yeah, oh, you're 25.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to be 26 for this.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, this is also why you signing out of high school can be a pretty good idea times and everyone is all about the go to college, go to college, go to college for for a lot of kids.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, by the way, junior,
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not a player that I want to see playing in college baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's too good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think pro teams should be incentivized to get the elite talents into pro ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think for a lot of the elite high school talents, if you're ready to go compete every day and have baseball be your job, it's a great route.
[SPEAKER_00]: I will say this, you know, like there's been talk about like what is MLB's goals, you know, the owner's goals, the player's association goals in negotiations.
[SPEAKER_00]: If there ever is a moment where high school players, I know that there's been an emphasis on pushing more players to college.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a reduction in the number of draft rounds.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's the elimination of the advanced rookie and the short season leagues all that, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: That's one thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're the MLBPA, I know that the salary cap is kind of their biggest, like we can't let that happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're the M.O.V.P.A.
[SPEAKER_00]: and you ever allow like the banning of signing high school drafting high school players you're taking literally on the player side hundreds of millions of dollars out of it because if you look at the highest paid players in the game they are generally there are exceptions Aaron judge has been a very fascinating career development, but especially on the hitter side they're generally high school in Latin because for international.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because if you are, if you hit the big leagues at 20, 19, 20, 21, you hit free agency at the get paid age and I don't care how good a college player you are, how fast you move.
[SPEAKER_00]: The best you're going to do is 21 to 22 and a lot of cases, most cases, 23.
[SPEAKER_00]: 23 plus 6 means you're at the tail end of your productive your your peak time.
[SPEAKER_00]: 19 or 20 plus six puts you right in the middle of your peak time.
[SPEAKER_01]: Mm-hmm.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: Good way to close that one out, JJ.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been a fun hour of draft talk with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we'll have to pull you on the draft show.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just fun throughout the spring.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Always love breaking it down.
[SPEAKER_01]: So definitely check out the site.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you missed out on any of the draft coverage we had over the past two weeks, it's going to be a heavy week next week as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm back out in Texas, alongside college writer Jacob Rudner.
[SPEAKER_01]: We got a great slate of games.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of towns at
[SPEAKER_01]: as well, so plenty more coming on the draft front on the website, on our podcast, on the YouTube channel for hotsheet, all the avenues that you guys can get the content.
[SPEAKER_01]: Really appreciate you supporting BA and letting us do this work.
[SPEAKER_01]: So for JJ, I am Carlos, so longer, buddy.