[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's up, everyone?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed Podcast brought to you by Rotabauer.
[SPEAKER_01]: episode 440.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going over some relievers today both for short term and long term and bringing on one of the best in the business to talk it with over with me.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a senior writer at fan tracks and writer at Rotobal or and co-host of the fantasy baseball beat podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the best in the business, one of my closest friends in this industry, Mr. Mike Carter at MDRC 05 08 on Twitter.
[SPEAKER_02]: Eric, how are you doing, man?
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a good to see you.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know you've done 440 of these and I feel like I've been on about 40 of them, but I know that's also not true.
[SPEAKER_02]: I always love coming on this show with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: I appreciate you having me on.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can tell you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I should have said that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I actually kept track because I got bored one day and I kind of like went through my guest list.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're definitely high up there.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is going to be your sixth appearance on the show.
[SPEAKER_01]: That might be low.
[SPEAKER_01]: I left it like a check that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like it's been more than six.
[SPEAKER_01]: You've definitely been on one of the most frequent guests of this podcast over the years and always appreciate when you come on and share your wisdom here, especially on the top that you are very astute at.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're good at everything.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not just believers.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're good at everything.
[SPEAKER_01]: I appreciate that.
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, your believers are a headache, aren't they?
[SPEAKER_02]: It never seems to really alleviate all that much no matter what we do about it.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's funny like when you think you have it down or you think like oh yeah, I got a good play and like you know whether it'd be like you know in the dynasty league or that could read draft or you're like, all right, I'm going to approach like this and somebody gets hurt or somebody doesn't get the job as like there's always like that monkey ranch or a curveball thrown in where you're like well crap now I got like a Justin on on the fly here, but not many guys are just like you know you look back I should have looked back like
[SPEAKER_01]: Even just like five, six years ago, it's like how many of these guys that are, you know, getting save up between these now were also closer back then, you know, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're Ken Lee's and your Chapman's et cetera.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's like a handful of them, but it's a lot of turnover year over year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just a difficult position to, I think stay on top of year and year out.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there's no doubt about it.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we really know just looking historically and you look at Jeff Zimmerman's work looking at bullpens over the course of time and and what ends up happening, you know, about 40% of the guys that start with the job don't end with the job, you know, so.
[SPEAKER_02]: Our conversion rate of trying to find these guys are going to get saves for our teams is not very good, and so we do try to look at some of the tea leaves and we you know, we pay attention to what's going on, but you know, I'll be darn if I could tell you who's going to have 40 saves this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know somebody will, but I'm not going to be able to tell you who it's going to be tonight.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't that if anybody can figure that out, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: Buy a lottery ticket, go down to Atlantic City or Vegas or something and test your luck there because yeah, it's definitely not an easy task to figure out, but let's hop right into it here.
[SPEAKER_01]: We got some 80p's here, I mean, it's not technically a redraft episode, it's kind of like everything episode talking about relievers, but I feel like looking at some redraft numbers here, some 80p,
[SPEAKER_01]: Could kind of give us an idea of a guy who was getting valued highly right now like right here in twenty twenty six a looking at this is NFBC draft champions 80 p in this month just review erase has been like 1415 drafts you got 15 guys alone in the top 100 and they always get pushed up a bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And NFBC formats, you know, for the most part, especially those DCs where you've got to get your guys and get those saves where you can, so there's really no in the season moves there, but probably take, you know, take the number, add 50% to it, and that's probably your ADP and Yahoo or something like that, somebody go in like 50's probably more like 75 and Yahoo.
[SPEAKER_01]: etc.
[SPEAKER_01]: We look at this kind of like a little mini top tier here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Five guys are going between like 25 and around 33.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's Mason Miller with the Padre's Edwin Diaz now with the Dodgers of course, Kate Smith with Cleveland on the wrist moonios with Seattle and you end to ran now with the Phillies.
[SPEAKER_01]: A couple new names, new places there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I wanted to start with Kate Smith though and it kind of just goes right back to what we were just talking about with how things can change so quickly, you know, if you were rolling with a manual class A in a dynasty league or, you know, drafted them over the years and redraft was looking pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been one of the, you know, top relievers over the last, you know, really half decade or so now and now we probably never see him pitch in other inning and baseball because of all the, you know, all that stuff he was doing, you know, fixed and pitches and stuff like that throwing balls in the dirt on purpose.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, but now he's a, you know, that was a no no.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's out of there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Keith Smith is in who's been, you know, one of the better set up guys in baseball over the last, you know, few years as well for a class say, it's now he moves into being the guy in that bullpen.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, he's being the draft of this third RP off the board on average.
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of high expectations after the last two years he's had 191 ERA as
[SPEAKER_01]: or 223 last year, over 70 innings, both the years, over 100 K's, both the years, you look at Savont, lot of red there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So really good looking Savont page too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So now that he's stepping into being a full time closer, he didn't get 16 days last year, but now, first year as a full time guy, do you think Kate Smith is gonna stick as a top five reliever in moving forward here?
[SPEAKER_02]: No, it's funny, Eric, because we talked about this on one of the leshes, and we talked about where we thought Kate Smith might actually fall in these ranks for this year, based on the idea that class say would not be returning.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I said, well, I could see top 10, top 12 easily.
[SPEAKER_02]: the leagues are value in him very highly and you can understand why you know Steven vote likes to use the bullpen.
[SPEAKER_02]: He uses them almost every other day on average.
[SPEAKER_02]: These guys are going to pitch over 70 games.
[SPEAKER_02]: The chances for him getting 30 saves with ERA and whip that are going to be helpful for you and then also getting those 100 strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, that's the thing that's really important in looking at closures that I think a lot of people miss out on is looking at, you know, look at the saves we need the saves.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, we need the saves ratios are helpful too, but sometimes these guys can have a 50 strike out difference between them easily.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that could be really hard to make up in certain places later on.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think you're obviously paying in a very high price for Kate Smith right now, because a lot of people expect him to be one of the top five guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's a fair assumption.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know we didn't talk about moon yells, but moon yells scares me for a variety of different reasons.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I think he was pitching with a little bit of injury last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: And Seattle also has Matt Brash that they've used in those situations as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: We can't predict what managers are going to do.
[SPEAKER_02]: We know that managers fall in love with the idea of a guy coming in in the sixth standing and getting big out there and then don't always necessarily care who gets those last three hours for the save like we do.
[SPEAKER_02]: I do think that the T leaves here I'm looking at it that Kate Smith would be leaned on heavily as the closer in Cleveland at this time.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't see any reason why you would knock his value down in any way shape or form.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you're going to get 30 saves.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you're going to get a hundred strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to get an ERA under three.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you're going to have a decent whip in that too.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's really pretty helpful when you're starting off with a top line closer.
[SPEAKER_02]: You have 15 closers going in the top 100 picks.
[SPEAKER_02]: What are people thinking?
[SPEAKER_02]: You need fewer saves right now to be competitive in most of the top leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I think what people are thinking is, if I can get a sure bet 35 save guy, I can kind of Frankenstein the back end of this a little bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know, maybe you take a Mason Miller and say, oh, so Anthony Dominguez is probably going to get 20 to 25 saves.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if I have a good guy that I take in the first four or five rounds,
[SPEAKER_02]: I can sort of Frankenstein this thing at the back end of it, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: So that seems to be what people are thinking.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know it's early in draft season and we're getting into the meat of it now.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it'll be interesting to see in these so-called expert leagues how closers get valued.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I have no problem with Kate Smith being a top five closer off the board at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I love that Frankenstein.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like that's what I'm doing most years with my relievers.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, you know, it doesn't matter who I end up getting after the draft or whatever.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I feel like, into the year, it's like maybe one guy that I drafted and stole my team.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it was like, you know, somebody gets hurt.
[SPEAKER_01]: Somebody just loses the job, you know, pick up a guy or chew off the waver wire throughout the year and on the sudden year.
[SPEAKER_01]: your relief cord, the end of the year looks a lot different than that did.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh yeah, February or March.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I was that term for a sign of it.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's such a bad bet, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, last year in town, I came out of town thinking, I'm gonna spend, you know, 35 dollars on two closers, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm like, I got Devon Williams and I got David Bedner.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, I'm set.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm good when one ends up happening Williams is terrible that Yankees trade for bed nurse and now I've got a half of a closer and another guy that's completely useless to my team you know and it it killed me it killed my you know killed my season really
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that Yankees bullpen last year was so weird as I think they trade for all those guys and then like nothing really worked out and then, but then Bednor kind of you know find this footing and now he's the guy there in New York, but it's yeah, that was just like a weird bullpen for the Yankees, I mean, we are so used to Rivera for so long and that's kind of been any of the net Chapman for a long time, so that's been a position where for most of the Yankees, you know, they were pretty set for a long time with a few
[SPEAKER_01]: Then last year just kind of went all right, but but yeah, bednars use six right there in 80p right at 40 in the Devin Williams trip behind them.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's now with the meds that he got Chapman and Boston just had like a ridiculous Pounceback year like this the show.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know how quickly things can change year to year where you know this time last year There was a legitimate debate in in Boston or really all across baseball, but specifically in Boston where it's like all right Is it gonna be Liam Hendrix
[SPEAKER_01]: Or is it going to be a role to shot man and admittedly I'll admit when I'm wrong.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was team Hendrix.
[SPEAKER_01]: I did not have a ton of faith in Chapman.
[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't really like him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just in general and I was kind of rooting for Hendrix as personally.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I'll be eating cancer and all that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was a good story.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then, you know, obviously it didn't work out with him.
[SPEAKER_01]: End up getting, you know, let go later in the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then Chapman had one of the best relief seasons of the history at the Boston Red sauce.
[SPEAKER_01]: six, seven, I think which year that was one of those two years, but it was right up there.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, 117 ERA, 85 K's, 32 saves, and now he's a top 10 reliever once again this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just another example of how things can change so quickly.
[SPEAKER_01]: But real quick, before I get into the next guy here, don't, don't tell me that you're not in the moon.
[SPEAKER_01]: I literally just struck the moon, you know, it was like this afternoon.
[SPEAKER_01]: and in the towed raffle hold I just got him in the fourth round.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think it's a great spot to get them, you know, I don't have a problem with that and there's always I don't know what it is, you know, we have these biases right and and there's always been something for me like I've been waiting for like this.
[SPEAKER_02]: Next level moon you know what I mean like that for him to be like the number the clear number one capital C guy and the old business and it just there's always something that I don't know if it's just that I catch them at times or like I'm watching I'm watching the game that he blows it I'm like this guy's not even that good which I know is wrong obviously right I'm not going to say that but I always do worry about those teams where I want if I'm going to spend that high level pick.
[SPEAKER_02]: You're right.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, Muno's clearly has the skills, but what if Matt Brash takes 10 saves from him?
[SPEAKER_02]: You know what I mean?
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, that's the stuff that always worries me and kind of, I don't want to say it keeps me up night at night.
[SPEAKER_02]: But things that you wake up in the middle of the night and you think about like, okay, if I wanted Muno's there, that's great.
[SPEAKER_02]: But then you almost want to kind of take Brash later just to make sure you got to handcuff, I guess.
[SPEAKER_02]: It just worries me, you know, you're just the best guy in the bullpen is not always the guy that's getting the saves and that's a thing that I learned from Doug Dennis many years ago, you know, like you have these guys that come in and they wipe out guys in the fifth and sixth inning and then they're not getting the saves, but they're the best arm in the bullpen, you know, and for our purposes having the best arm in the bullpen doesn't equate too much a lot of the time in fantasy sports, you know, yep, no.
[SPEAKER_01]: 100%, one last week, a quick thing on here on Kate Smith, too, before he moved past him, you know, something that's really intriguing about Smith.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he could miss Baff, he's got the really good bat missing stuff, you know, three offerings above a 30% to 32% with for eight fastballs, really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't walk anybody either.
[SPEAKER_01]: Usually he's like these guys, like this moon knows, you know, 11% walkeray.
[SPEAKER_01]: Usually they're mostly, you know, in the higher walkerate range, but not Smith.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been right around like 6% each of the last two years,
[SPEAKER_01]: he feels pretty safe to me as safe as a reliever can be but yeah he's a guy I'd feel I'd feel totally fine at taking him as a top five guy and if he was still there when I took moonios I absolutely would have taken but Smith went like five or six picks before I got back to me so
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm definitely I'm buying Smith.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's a guy that he was always the one where you're like, oh, well, something happens class A, you know, Smith could be an RP, you know, an RP one for fantasy and absolutely now we're seeing him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He got you got taste of it last year with the 16 saves.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now you can probably double that with elite ratios, you know, pretty decent volume for a reliever.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I am all in on Kate Smith, next little grouping here of ADP, which will lead us into the next guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I will talk about who's been a pretty reliable guy for a long time, but last year had a little bit of a down season for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Ryan Hellsley, formerly of St. Louis, now with the Baltimore Orioles,
[SPEAKER_01]: First up, I thought he was like 36.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's only 31.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure why I was so far off.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's one of those guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel that he's just been around forever.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it does.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thought he'd be against mid 30s.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, he's only 31, but now joining the Baltimore Orioles, you know, they have Felix Ortista.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was, you know, out for the year again.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this ADP range here, we're still in the top 50, but you got like bed bars right around 40, Williams 41, Chapman 42, Hater 52, and Ryan Helsie around 61, so he is the 10th reliever off the board this year for we draft leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, had a 49 save year in 2024 and still had 21 saves last year, but at a 450 ERA and a 154 whip, you know, so kind of a, you know, really down year for him after having three straight years under a 25 ERA.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what do you what do you make of Hell's least 20 25 season?
[SPEAKER_01]: I think people are still relatively in
[SPEAKER_01]: given the ADP and now he's in a new home, but you think last year was just one of those talk up to being a bad year and you still think he could be a pretty good believer here in 2026.
[SPEAKER_02]: I absolutely think he can be a top reliever and I like actually what you said about the ADP because in some of the other NFBC, I kind of keep the chart of all the NFBC and kind of track where these guys are going.
[SPEAKER_02]: In other NFBC leagues, he's going down closer to like pick 90 91 and I'll take that discount if you want to give it to me because I don't know if people remember this but 2024 he had 49 saves on a decent St. Louis team St. Louis was not nearly as good last year and they're obviously going to be you know a working progress this year, but he's going to a really good team.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I look at what he was doing and what happened.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you know, there was a lot of talk in New York last year that he was tipping his pitches.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he got some feedback on that.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it was kind of working on, you know, how he was working through his pitches and his mix and whatnot.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if you look under the hood, I think the signs are all there, you know, he's here Ray was 4.5 last year, which obviously is not something that we want.
[SPEAKER_02]: Excuse me, but the velocity was still there.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's good.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is one of the elite fastball guys in the game.
[SPEAKER_02]: Another guy within a lead slider, he's got a two-pitch mix to the uses.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a lot of great chase and with stuff that goes on with that.
[SPEAKER_02]: The K-percentage was still 25% last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Walk percentage was a little high for him.
[SPEAKER_02]: Compared to what he's used to, his whip was like 1.54.
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, if you look under the hood and think a little bit more about,
[SPEAKER_02]: at ERA is such a flawed stat.
[SPEAKER_02]: We don't have to talk about that because everybody who's listening is going to know that going in.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if we look at his ex-fit, it was 379.
[SPEAKER_02]: Still not great, but three quarters of a run lower than what it was this past year.
[SPEAKER_02]: If we
[SPEAKER_02]: look at the strikeout rate, the strikeout rate is there.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was kind of victimized by home run balls last year too.
[SPEAKER_02]: He saw a huge spike in his home run percentage, and I think that probably is tied to that pitch tipping that he was working on.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's pretty clear to me that Baltimore feels that he can be their a capital C closer.
[SPEAKER_02]: I look at him and I think, you know, 25, 30 saves is easily within reach, you know, the one thing that you kind of, you know, look at with Baltimore and you wonder is they have a tendency to kind of mix and match a little bit too.
[SPEAKER_02]: So they've also got your kids rich.
[SPEAKER_02]: You might maybe he gets four or five saves.
[SPEAKER_02]: They got Keegan Aiken who was really not bad in the role last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not housely, but, you know, he could, you know, nickel and dime a couple of left handed saves there at the end.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think,
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, if you're looking at it and thinking, hey, he can get to 49 saves again.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that's going to happen, but there's definitely a world where he gets 25 to 30 and as he array is a much more usable three and the strikeout rate kind of comes up again, but take heed with health lead though, too, you know, he has not pitched a lot of innings over the course of time.
[SPEAKER_02]: So even the year that he had the 49 saves in 24.
[SPEAKER_02]: He only threw about 66 anines, and so he had a little bit of a suppressed strike out total.
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you're looking at Kate Smith and Mason Miller and these guys that can get you 100 strikeouts, you might want to budget a little, you know, a lowered number of strikeouts for healthly, you know, if he gets to 65, 66 anines, 70 anines, you know, maybe you're looking at 80 strikeouts that are supposed to 100.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'd like him as a closer, I think, you know, he's a top 10 guy for me at this point.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'd like to understand why people might have some trepidation in looking at it.
[SPEAKER_02]: You got to be careful with what you're doing here and what you really think you're getting.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm glad that you said that you have them as a top 10 guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was going to ask you, if you would feel okay, coming out of a draft and having hellsly as your RP1, so it seems like you are then.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, very much so.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, again, I think like I said earlier, I don't think you need as many, I don't think you need 80 saves anymore to be competitive in the, you know, in the,
[SPEAKER_02]: the statistics in most leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: You need to get a guide that's going to get the bulk of that team's chances and go from there.
[SPEAKER_02]: And Baltimore had a bad year last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: They shouldn't prove this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: They should have a demonic offense if it all lines up the right way.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I like the idea that House Lee's walking into a very good situation there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I think you mentioned this too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I think the key for him is getting that fast ball back.
[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously velocity has been right there nearly 100 miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that foreseamer went from being a positive three run value pitch to a negative 15 last year with a 422 batting average again.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, it's just crazy numbers, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you just kid, that's unsustainable.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's going to be some regression back to the mean.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's going to be okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have 100% agree.
[SPEAKER_01]: And part of it, like, look at the heat maps like 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was more up in the zone with it, you know, 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: You saw that he was kind of down more over the heart, even more down throwing it kind of lower third part of the zone.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of like right, we're on a hitters like to get that swing path nowadays.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think, I mean, what a bit of that played into it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I'm definitely, you know, buying a bounce back here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm, especially with relievers,
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm really big on track record and I'm kind of trusting that a little more than I would trust like a bad year.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, you can't ignore the fact that healthy was not great last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you also got to remember, like you went, you know, the 49 saves the year before that, just, you know, a lot of years, a lot, you know, about a three year array or lower, you know, really 22, 22, 24, he was one of the better relievers in all of baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, not a guy
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, strikeout rate, but you can trust getting you those saves and usually give you some good ratios and, you know, a decent enough strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm definitely unbored with a healthy bounce back for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just having all of his blown saves being against my red socks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not you loved that when it's like, you know, we do all the fantasy stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: We also have our own teams that we root for and it's like
[SPEAKER_01]: The, you know, favorite team is facing off against, you know, one of your top fancy players.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're like, all right.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want, you know, I want Jose Ramirez to go three for four with two bombs, but I want the red socks to win four to two or something like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.
[SPEAKER_02]: But unfortunately, I'm a white socks fan, so I never expect to win.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I just always remember my fantasy guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: Make sure he gets the same for me that night.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: There you go.
[SPEAKER_01]: But let's go right over to somebody in the American League Central to the Kansas City Royals and a reliever that I'm seeing a lot of people more people down on than high on this year and that's Colonel Estevez, his ADP right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going off the board as the 12th reliever, right around pick 78 in NFBC DCs.
[SPEAKER_01]: over the years at 11, but as of as a guy that I'm sitting on people like, no, I'm out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just don't want anything to do with him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of can see, you look at his avant page.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not like super intriguing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, this is not like he has a really low chase rate, a really low with rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's never really been a big K rate guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year was only a 20% K rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Though he's got an ERA of 246 on the dot, each of the last two
[SPEAKER_01]: they're moving in the fences in Kansas City, which is great because I, you know, I got some shares above you with some, you know, my Calgary CS and Vinnie P. So I love it on that regard, you know, Salvi Perez, but the forgotic Estovaz who does not get ground balls and gives up a lot of contact in the air that doesn't usually uh, boat well for guys like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So uh, where, where are you out on Estovaz here, Mike?
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a huge risk, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think
[SPEAKER_02]: When you look at estives, there are a lot of people that are down on them as you point out, and for reasons that I can fully understand, you have to have sort of a special build to be able to have estives, I think, on your roster.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you know, he does have 99 saves the last three years, and so.
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, a lot of people want to poo poo the other stats they go along with that.
[SPEAKER_02]: At the end of the day, he's converting saves and the writers are going to I think that we're also going to be pretty good.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know how many people share that opinion, but in kind of looking at what they've done with the small market approach that they have this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think their bullpen's actually going to be pretty decent and I know there's a lot of people that think that estimates could give way to Lucas Ursaig and that Ursaig could be kind of a sleeper somebody we might talk about a little bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: But here's the thing, you have to get saves, and we have a term that we've used.
[SPEAKER_02]: And Michael Simeon used to term back in the day.
[SPEAKER_02]: Painful saves.
[SPEAKER_02]: These are painful saves.
[SPEAKER_02]: These are saves that you might get, but he might give up three runs and blow up your ratios for the week.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I think if you know what you're getting, and if you're okay with getting 30 saves with a four ERA, and a low strikeout rate,
[SPEAKER_02]: meaning like you drafted schoolable and schemes or something and you have some monster rotation that can kind of stomach the idea of having the poor ratios to get the saves.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's okay.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I'm avoiding Esteves largely, not because I don't think he's good at getting saves, but I just don't see any type of build that I can make that I'm comfortable with where I see him as my number one closer especially with the ratios and a low strikeouts for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm I'm right there with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, and especially in in redraft, he's going out the board like he's basically going to be your RP one bread at the end of the RP one beginning of the RP two range.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't feel comfortable with moving the fences in his lack of swing and missed stuff, but you made a good point.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's kind of goes back to the track or thing too.
[SPEAKER_01]: He does have 99 saves over the last few years, which I just pulled it up real quick.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's second most and all of baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: And technically, first most, if you, you know, take away the guy that was ahead of him who's now not even pitching anymore, that was class
[SPEAKER_01]: This is actually a pretty fun and random top 10.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you get class A is 115 over the last three years.
[SPEAKER_01]: S. Suvesa 99, a glacius 96, 8 or 95, and you get Kyle Finnegan fifth with 90, and then Bednar, Kenley Jensen, who's closing in a 500 saves for his career.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ryan Hellsley is eighth, Joanne Durand, 9th, and Camille Dauval, tenth, that in Devolz at 78.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's a number two in saves over the last three years.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's only blown 15, so that's not a terrible amount and he's got an ERA under three during that time frame.
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I mean, think about it, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: You could, you could draft estimates with a high pick or you could draft Kenley Jansen 200 picks later and get essentially the same guy with a better ratio, you know.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know, Ken Lee's, he's kind of turning in the, I've used his expression a few times lately, but, you know, Ken Lee, you have to say almost like the my Tony Gonzalez of relievers, like, he's old and he's like, all right, his best years are behind him.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's still cranking out productive seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's still good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Tony, Tony Gonzalez was like in the last few years of his career.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, all right, he's not, you know, the number one dude anymore.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's still giving me thousand yards and eight touchdowns or something.
[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly, exactly, right, it's still very usable.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, at least they're giving you 30 semons saves a year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I mean, Kenley is had, I don't know how many straight years of just like 25 plus saves, but it's ridiculous.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to pull it up real quick because I was looking at it like a week or two ago, just looking at the consistency of him over the years going from the Dodgers and a couple years, you know, here in Boston the one year in Atlanta.
[SPEAKER_01]: with the angels.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got bounce right on a little bit lately now at the Tigers, but his saved total starting last year and going back 29, 27, 29, 41, 38, 11 in the short and C is in 33, 38, 41, 47, 36, 44, 28, 25, that was back at 2012 and then he wasn't a closure the first two years of his career.
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
[SPEAKER_02]: Right, in an era right, it's never been over 37.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you know, I mean, just a whip whip that it whipped at our decent, like you just know what you're going to get.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just, you know, pencil it.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, we say that every year, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, he's 38.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're thinking, well, the slope will be slippery.
[SPEAKER_02]: When it becomes slippery, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: And, but, you know, he's been throwing one pitch for the last five or six years.
[SPEAKER_02]: He throws it 88% of the time and he'll still work it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, 100%.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only like the old, you know, Marianne or Vera, you know it's coming, but the fact that he just does this great job at locating it and kind of like, you know, mixing up and going, you're going kind of where he goes in with it and he goes outside corner with it and he goes down the knees with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He kind of keeps a guess in words.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's a one pitch, but that he just kind of throws it all over the, you know, the few different spots.
[SPEAKER_01]: Or it kind of looks like a, you know, a few different pitches.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I knew a guy who faced him in the minor leagues who said that it was like, it's like hitting a bowling ball.
[SPEAKER_02]: because he can you imagine that heaviness of it and that you can't as a hitter you can't really do much with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so just when he's running into the hands, you know, or like kind of like right at the belt, you swing my overed or just pound it right to the ground for exactly ground up the second base.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I enjoyed Jensen in his two years here in Boston.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was, you know, you saw it again.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: back to back years or close to 30 sails with us, he arrived in loathement threes, wasn't like studly, but just a good two years here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I fully expect him to have another good year here in and Detroit in 2026.
[SPEAKER_02]: So they do too.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, they wouldn't brought him in if they if they didn't feel that way.
[SPEAKER_02]: They they have some interesting options there too, but uh, I there's no doubt on my mind that Ken Lee's going to be the closer and add vester thing again.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh yeah, they're pretty decent bullpen there this year and they should do now that you know say they're holding on to school Well, which I kind of thought was the case all along and adding Framber and I got pretty solid offense there We'll be adding Kevin McGonagl at some point this year too.
[SPEAKER_01]: The trade could make some noise this year They could they could be a team that surprises is maybe they're in the ALCS or something like that seven months or now, but
[SPEAKER_01]: As we move on here to the next player on the list here, Daniel Palencia, kind of emerged last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Cubs had kind of cycle in through a bunch of guys that couldn't find any consistency in the eighth, ninth innings for that team, but then Palencia emerged and became that guy last year, 54 outings to 91 ERA, 114 whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: got 22 saves locked in, 61 strikeouts, it's a 28 and a half percent strike got right.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now he's going off the board as, you know, mid to high end RP2, he is the 16th reliever off the board going around pick 105 and NFBC drafts right between, right, actually right ahead of Kelly Jansen is right behind them.
[SPEAKER_01]: and then right behind Emilio Pagon with the Cincinnati actually kind of like decent not this year as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Applencia one of the you know he's like super young he's 26 but one of the young cats in terms of like all these elite guys that are mostly like you know up up for 20s low to mid 30s he's one of the newer guys on the block here but pretty intriguing stuff you know obviously kind of emerging in that role last year after kind of being off the map previously you get a you know 614 ERA
[SPEAKER_01]: year before that, but, you know, a lot of decent metrics there, limits hard contact, you know, pretty well, a limits barrels, well, I should say, they need a lot of barrels, primarily four seam, slider guy, four seamer, a lot over 70% of the time, it's a pretty good one, slider's pretty good as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, are you buying, kind of what you saw from Palencia last year, and do you think you can have a good first full year as a everyday closure, or every full-time
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm probably one of the few people that you will find in our industry that's not super stoked about Poencia, and it's not because he's not good, and it's not because he doesn't have really nice stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: I agree with everything that you were saying.
[SPEAKER_02]: The thing that concerns me is this, and if people want to come at me with this, I totally am willing to have a conversation about it and we'll be civil.
[SPEAKER_02]: I worry that the last time we saw him in the playoffs, he was pitching
[SPEAKER_02]: And I know that those were must-win games for the Cubs, and it didn't end up working out the way that they wanted it to.
[SPEAKER_02]: I thought it said a lot about the way council used his bullpen that he was not really afraid last year to use anybody at any time.
[SPEAKER_02]: And the Cubs have sort of rebuilt their bullpen this year again in that same image.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, they just they gave $100 or $88 million, I think.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, maybe it was six, but
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, they're looking to see if they can kind of catch that lightning in a bottle like they did again last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so my worry is that while Polencia is probably the best arm in their bullpen, does he end up having a situation like what happened with Muñoz and Brash and Seattle a few years ago?
[SPEAKER_02]: Where
[SPEAKER_02]: where the saves are kind of sprinkled around three or four other guys, Phil Mayton is there, Hunter Harvey is there.
[SPEAKER_02]: They've got options that they can look at besides Polencia.
[SPEAKER_02]: And really, you know, when you look at his ratios and stuff like that, to me, there's a little bit of room for concern there.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I look at the stat cast the same way that you do and I noticed that, you know, he, he gave up a lot of hard contact last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't have a lot of great chase on his stuff either.
[SPEAKER_02]: Even though the strikeout rate was over 28%.
[SPEAKER_02]: I wonder if some of this, you know, if there's a little bit of regression here, he's also had really high walk rates in the past, which he was able to control last year, but in limited sample sizes in the past, he had 11.8% walk percentage in 23.
[SPEAKER_02]: and that skyrocket at the 17.4 and 24.
[SPEAKER_02]: He caught that the 7.4 last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if I really want that top line closer, and a lot of people seem to be drafting him as a number one, like slash number two, like he were saying.
[SPEAKER_02]: If he's your number two guy, I think that's great.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if you're thinking that you're getting a capital C closer, like we like to say, number one guy, 35 plus saves, I think he might be in for a little bit of a letdown.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I would counsel you against putting all your eggs in the policy of basket.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know I listen to a lot of shows and there's a lot of people that are really into Polencia and I get that.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think you know it's a little bit of wish casting.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's some signs here that maybe if you're taking a mission number one guy that you might not get the saved total that you are really hoping to get.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's my opinion and I will own that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm pretty, I don't know, he's he's a difficult one for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of like him, but, you know, I'm kind of with you in some regard that there's some concerns here for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: You look at the profile and while the barrel rates super low like I mentioned, you know, and he 4.4% barrel rate allows pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a lot of 45% or higher hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: each of his three years in the major is forty-eight and a half percent last year, although it's good that you mentioned he dropped that walk rate a good bit last year down to seven and a half percent, which is much more manageable than seventeen and a half percent, but yeah, I just he's a guy where I'd feel okay with him as my RP-2, but if you're waiting in kind of you want to go
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're hitting or starting pitching early and you're going to want to wait in New York, all year up, 11C will be only RP1.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's kind of risky.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm 100% there with you on that one.
[SPEAKER_01]: RP2, I'm okay with, so I think he'll get 25, you know, 25, 30 saves this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably, you know, load a mid 3 ERA, a little bit over a K-printing.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he'll be fine, but yeah, I don't really see him kind of like,
[SPEAKER_01]: taking that next step and all of a sudden, he's a top 10 guy or anything that I just don't see.
[SPEAKER_01]: And like you mentioned, they added some guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: They added four guys that are both in this year, three of which actually were on Texas last year, I'll be enough, you know, maintenance, web, and hope you know under all in Texas, then they had a hundred Harvey from Kansas City as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of new faces in that both, and a lot of guys that have been around that bit, there's a lot of experienced,
[SPEAKER_01]: veterans in that bullpen you add in Caleb Fibar who's 39 years old as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what do you guys have been on the block the time or two?
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I definitely share some of your concerns there with Plencia.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, watch him be the guy that gets 45 states.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know what, yes.
[SPEAKER_01]: That would just, that would just be, I mean, it won't surprise me to be honest with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, no, I've stopped being surprised by anything that would relieve us.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, all this guy that we don't think was good.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of a sudden, you know, our P1 or a guy is that we think a rock solid.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of a sudden, like, all of a sudden, like, you know, Hellsley goes to being rock solid, having a four, five ERA.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, it's like, nothing surprises me anymore, with relievers, honestly.
[SPEAKER_01]: But next up here, I mean, there's a lot of position battles going on this year in the bullpen.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll get to more of them later on.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the one I wanted to talk about separately was Milwaukee with Trevor McGill and Abnery Rebe both are, you know, whooping.
[SPEAKER_01]: really good options over the years and both have had some save, you know, experience in that closure role, you know, last year, you know, 30 saves for McGill, 249 ERA, 272 ERA year before that with 21 saves, though he's been under 50 innings each of the last two years, but you know, ratio has been there, you know, pretty good strikeout rate keeps the walk rate in check,
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been a guy that over the last three years has become, you know, pretty consistent, you know, and that Avenue Rebay, you know, he's been, I got it kind of emerged, you know, a year or two ago, and one of the more, I think electric arms and all of May's fall for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: And last year had a really good year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He looked at his Savant page.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, McGill Savant page looks good.
[SPEAKER_01]: The rebays looks really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of red on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he emerged a few years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then he had a down year, 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bonnie had 14 outings.
[SPEAKER_01]: The last year in 75 outings, racked up seven saves.
[SPEAKER_01]: 167 ERA, 1 0 4 whip, 9% walk rate, and a 30% strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So how do you see this battle going?
[SPEAKER_01]: And who do you think is the guy?
[SPEAKER_01]: Who'd rather attach yourself to moving forward this year and beyond McGill or you rebate?
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, you know, it's been crazy watching the ADP because they're like, right next to each other.
[SPEAKER_02]: It seems like nobody can really make up their mind about how they think this is gonna go.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then my opinion, when you can't make up your mind about how something's gonna go, you probably should go elsewhere.
[SPEAKER_02]: But to your point, these are two really high line arms that are just wonderful guys to have in a bullpen, in real life, you know.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, Miguel, Miguel's got a little bit more experience.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I, you know,
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that that's probably what ends up winning the day, that he's 32 and if they decide to move somebody, I don't know if anybody else is looking at it, but Milwaukee couldn't really use a third basement.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if there's even looking on the market for that, but I could see them being a position they've done it before, they did it with Devil Williams, they did it with Josh Hader, where they trade one of those top guys and get something for them that's really useful.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think if they do that, if McGill's healthy, I think McGill starts the year with the job, but your rebate to your point is absolutely electric and has shown that he can pitch in just about any role in that bullpen.
[SPEAKER_02]: The Brewer's bullpen, though, is a really interesting deep dive if you take a look at it.
[SPEAKER_02]: You can really get lost in it.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, they just acquired Angel Zerba from Kansas City.
[SPEAKER_02]: They really, really like him.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's been some talk that they might try him in the rotation, but, you know, they give up Isaac Collins for him.
[SPEAKER_02]: And another picture too, and I can't know the name escapes me right now, but
[SPEAKER_02]: They got Aaron Ashby, they've got Deal Hall, they've got Zerpa in that bullpitcher, Cainig is another great weapon that they have there.
[SPEAKER_02]: And they got like five lefties where nobody has like more than two, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's pretty wild, they're kind of look at it.
[SPEAKER_02]: But Dorebae is a guy that, you know, if you're in a saves and holds league, he led the entire world and holds Lester with 37, even though he spent about a third of the year as closer.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that tells you a little bit about how he's used and how powerful he is.
[SPEAKER_02]: They both will be considered to be great weapons, but you're probably going to see some split on the saves there.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, if Miguel's healthy, I could see it being like a, he gets like 67% of the saves and then your rebate gets a third of those, you know, so Miguel maybe it's 20, you know, 18, you rebate and several 10 or 12, they're both going to be guys that are worth owning because they can, are rastery and I should say just because they're both really dynamic, but.
[SPEAKER_02]: At the same time, you've got to temper your expectations.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, injuries have a tendency to sort of things out a little bit or trade could sort that out too.
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll have to see what happens here in spring training.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if I had to bet, I would guess that your rebate would be a multiple-ending stopper to start the year, and McGill would be the closer.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's if they don't end up training Miguel McGill's another one of those guys like it's hard to see them and another position besides closer and the rebay has multiple uses so I could see that kind of being the case until they decide what they're going to do with that bullpen.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Milwaukee always marches to the beat of their own drum and usually it works out like they'll make they'll make these moves Where like what are they doing and then they all it there there's the division champs again, and you know high seeding them in the post season So you know they have a one-the-world series, but you know that definitely they always seem to make things work even if it doesn't make sense at the time
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm right there with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think in terms of looking at just for saves.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I do feel like it's more like a two thirds, one third split in favor of McGill, which is kind of funny because a lot of the projections I've seen have it almost flip flop.
[SPEAKER_01]: So like, you know, more so, two thirds, so you rebate.
[SPEAKER_01]: The one thing you mentioned, you'll just a little bit too, you know, the situational thing, you rebate gets a lot of ground balls.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's sinker slider.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, that's sinker.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like around about 50% each of his three years in the majors.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I could totally see, you know, in Milwaukee up by one, it's the seventh inning, you know, two men on or even like bases loaded one out, they're, all right, we need a double play ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: We need them all in the ground, what's bringing you rebound, get that, you know, try to get that double play that he can start out for the eighth after that or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I could 100% see something like that, you know, given his ground ball prowess.
[SPEAKER_01]: Annability to just strike highs out too, so that that slider absolutely filthy.
[SPEAKER_01]: The same like the two distinct movements of the sinker and the slider.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure like, you know, Rob Freeman, pitching ninja probably has like an overlay of how they're both like right there that they just completely take off opposite directions.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know.
[SPEAKER_02]: they're both nasty.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have such different approaches.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I go to Milwaukee fairly frequently and see those guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: And Yereba is like, oh, you know, he's this life, you know, skinny guy who's just got a whip.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then you got McGill who's like 69, you know, like, just coming downhill.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, it's just absolutely fun to watch at the end of games there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, McGill was built like an NFL tight end or again an NBA power forward or something like Travis Kelsey or something like that so yeah and rebate your rebates pretty tall to his name was what's your rebate six so he has six three fairly tall six three, but he looks that he weighs 150 pounds and you see him from far away, I'm sure yeah and it's McGill especially next to McGill yeah McGill's upwards of probably 275 to 80 I would say so big dude
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and they both throw very hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, McGill's averaging, uh, weren't as positive.
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, use averaging 99 on his fastball.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's he's fastball knuckle curve, curve, and then knuckle curve is absolutely filthy as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then you rebate, you know, sinkers slider on that sinkers averaging 99.
[SPEAKER_01]: So two guys that just come in throwing straight up gas and but in very different ways, you know, forseemer.
[SPEAKER_01]: than that hammer curve ball from McGill, sinker slider going east to west with your rebays.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's completely different, you know, different looks.
[SPEAKER_01]: If they're coming in back to back in the eighth and the ninth, it's completely different looks for those hitters.
[SPEAKER_01]: So for sure, that's to be probably one of the better eight, nine in baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't looked at it and compared, but you got to imagine that's like a top five or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely, eight, nine combination there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm gonna walk you so.
[SPEAKER_01]: For sure, for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: They are in good hands in Milwaukee, but moving on here down to Atlanta guy that's who was one of the kind of better relievers and one of the higher saves guys in baseball, Robert Swarez, now he's going to be, you know, at least it's certainly years setting up for Ryzo Glacius who's been, you know, rock solid as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And as far as coming back to back years above 35
[SPEAKER_01]: both the years, you know, over a strike up for ending last year, not a huge key rate guy, but it did tick up to 28% last year, which is pretty solid, walk right around 6%, each of the last two years as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now he goes into a much different situation where he was the guy, like the guy alone, the last two years in San Diego.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now, you know, maybe he's a guy that's going to get in five
[SPEAKER_01]: He's so getting drafted, you know, fairly high for, you know, a non-closer, you know, so to speak.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a 24th guy off the board, right around pick 200.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's kind of in a spot by himself, a pocket by himself and ADP, nobody really around him for a couple rounds either way.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, obviously in saves holds for a match, he's still like one of the top guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they'll probably get like, you know, assuming, let's say at least he stays healthy.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're say, so far as probably gets around maybe eight to ten saves.
[SPEAKER_01]: We together at a ton of holds as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Atlanta's going to be pretty good this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they're going to bounce back and, you know, be back to being, you know, pretty good team, though.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're already, you know, injury city there in their rotation was Schwellenbach and Waldrip going down with loose bodies in their elbow, which I still don't know what the hell that means.
[SPEAKER_01]: That doesn't sound fun loose, I just don't, that's just sounds gross, but I think a lot will be good to be plenty of opportunities there for those two guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, how are you, how are you valuing Robert Suarez this year?
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you're right on target with what you said, you know, a glacier is one of the top closers in the game over the last 10 years.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's going to retain that job.
[SPEAKER_02]: He is in the last year of a contract, you know, and so if if Atlanta is not good, I agree with your assertion, I think they're going to be better than they were compete for a playoff spot all year, but if they're not, you know, they could move a glacier since Suarez can move into a top role.
[SPEAKER_02]: The interesting thing for me about Suarez, that I don't fully understand, is that despite the velocity, he's not a real big strikeout guy, and so I'm not sure why people are drafting him or their drafting him, other than that they think that maybe a glacier has become trade trade bait and Suarez kind of swoops in and takes that job.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not like you're going to get, you know, Suarez is going to come in and pitch two Indians and get five strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's that's really kind of not what he does, you know.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a little bit more reliant on subterfuge and not really big on the, his cave rate is good, don't get me wrong, what I'm just saying.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not gonna come in and post those eye-popping cave Smith or Mason Miller type of strikeout numbers that you get.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's also 34 years old.
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's not like he's a young guy that's gonna work his way up into a position Alah after your rebate, who we were just talking about.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I'm kind of staying office for us just because I'm certain of what his role is even though I know he's got really good skills.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it really is format dependent.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's still like my home keeper league with my buddies and a lot of which are from high school, you know, we do save his whole, even though I've tried to change that because I think it devalues relievers, but you know, he's still I think a top 10 guy in a saves holds format or at least in that discussion.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you don't get eight or ten saves, yeah, he'll probably give you some decent ratios and at decent enough K rate, but his eight to ten saves enough to warrants, you know, being on like, especially people listen that are displaying and like, you know, a 12 team Yahoo League where, you know, is he worth it there, like, maybe as an RP3?
[SPEAKER_01]: I could see like if you get two guys as your top two that you really feel good about the guy These guys are gonna be 30 fun saves.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: They are and you want to take a chance on a glacier Like well, maybe he you know glaciers gets hurts And you want to take a chance on swara's I could see that as make it like an upside play You know RP three, but yeah, it's it's really all very dependent format with with swara's for sure Absolutely
[SPEAKER_01]: He's he's it definitely obviously rock solid, but you know, the role is everything and agleicius has earned the right to really stay in that role after having, you know, over 30 saves and or well, he had 29 last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So close enough.
[SPEAKER_01]: But basically, basically, 30 saves in each of the last three years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, definitely had some years before that.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's up to 253 to where's save.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's starting to climb the leaderboard here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he gets up to like 400 or something in his shirt.
[SPEAKER_02]: Sure.
[SPEAKER_02]: Absolutely can.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's, you know, that's another thing that we talk about as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, we're always looking for the sexy new thing in fantasy baseball, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: And you have guys like Bryce Eliglissius.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you know, he's going to have a couple of bumps and bruises along the way.
[SPEAKER_02]: He might be out of the job for a week or two.
[SPEAKER_02]: He always recovers.
[SPEAKER_02]: He always ends up being a guy that's up there with saves at the end of the season.
[SPEAKER_02]: I still think he's pretty reliable even at age 36.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, a hundred percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: The old guys, I got, I'd be fine to go to him and like Ecolaceus and Jansson as my top two.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're both older.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're both like, you know, mid to upper 30s, but hey, they'll give me like 70 75 saves.
[SPEAKER_01]: I am all for it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Amen.
[SPEAKER_01]: Amen to that.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so we already talked about one closer battle per se in Milwaukee, but there's, you know, a handful more here across baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: I really, six more not quite as sexy as the Milwaukee battle, but still we had to figure out who the heck is going to get the the saves here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I figured what was there's six teams here.
[SPEAKER_01]: figure was that we can go team by team here, you know, elicity options and who the for all kind of big a two-part or who do you think wins a job and are they worth targeting.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll start with the athletics here who are really exciting on paper offensively they're still kind of trying to figure out the whole pitching thing both in both in the rotation and the bullpen, but
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going into the year with a trio, probably looking at Hogan Harris, a lefty, Justin Sternner, and Mark Leider Jr. both righty.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, who do you think gets the job and are you even intrigued by them in fantasy?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the one guy that I'm really intrigued by here is Sternner.
[SPEAKER_02]: And we've talked about him before.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've talked about him with other people in the industry.
[SPEAKER_02]: I, Hogan Harris did an admirable job for them last year down the stretch and kind of held the fourth down, but I think he's better used as an seventh or eighth inning guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: They also signed Mark Lighter, Jr. who has some experience there, but probably better served as a seventh or eighth inning guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: Sterner is a guy that if you're looking for a late, dark throw in deeper leagues, he'd be a guy that I would be really interested in, and he's not
[SPEAKER_02]: somebody that they've leaned on super heavily over the course of time.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a veteran.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's 29 years old.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not a kid.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you pull up a stat cast and look at it, you're going to like it.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a really good chase percentage.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a really good with percentage.
[SPEAKER_02]: He features a three-pinch mix I would say.
[SPEAKER_02]: with what he's doing there with the fastball and and looking at a couple other things, you know, with the cutter that he throws as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then he's added in a sweeper that actually was fairly effective last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not a super high VLO guide, but he's got really good placement in location.
[SPEAKER_02]: So Sturner would be a guy that I have kind of circled for later and drafts that I think could be a Dark Horse candidate to get saves for the athletics.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, that's the one I was looking at too because you know, I don't think it's going to be hooking here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he'll probably get some save up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, he's only, you know, one of two lefties in that bullpen.
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about who's the bullpen that had five of them.
[SPEAKER_01]: Milwaukee and five lefties.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
[SPEAKER_01]: The athletics have two lefties in hooking here and and Brady Bay.
[SPEAKER_01]: So so.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, though we owe one of them note there is open here so I could see him absolutely coming in, seventh inning, eighth inning, whatever, you know, a couple of tough lefties coming up and being used that way a good bit of the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I kind of leaves with Sturner and lighter and I like later a little bit too.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm semi-entry there, but you said it very well at the semon page for Sturner.
[SPEAKER_01]: pretty impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not many guys you'll see that are about 30% both in Chase and with limits hard contact fairly well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Doesn't walk a ton of guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was pretty good last year 319 ERA and 65 innings, 1 0 5 whip.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I can see I'm getting like 15 to 18 saves with a low 3 ERA and around the caperining.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that could be pretty useful.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, RP3 territory.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm kind of okay with that for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Next team up here we're going to the angels who are always kind of a mess seems like But this year that they got a few decent options.
[SPEAKER_01]: All guys that are better on the block at time or two here Really four guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean Ross Ruchers has only three guys with the CL in the role, but
[SPEAKER_01]: They also got Jordan Romano, who's probably pitching mineral leaf, you know, obviously he's had a lot of save opportunities over the years, but the three that are maybe in the mix here are Robert Stevenson drew pomerans and Kirby Yates, you know, then they added, you know, half their bullpen over the last few months, they added pomerans Yates and Romano back in December and also got Brent suitor.
[SPEAKER_01]: uh uh a couple weeks ago here in February from Cincinnati and they've had see Stevenson here for a couple years now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So now who do you think is going to be here Stevenson, Pomerans Yates, maybe Vermado and are you interested in them in fantasy?
[SPEAKER_02]: But it's a really tough question you ask.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I know that I have to answer these questions and I'm always going to be softballs.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have actually paid Stevenson to be the closer, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's not been healthy.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was out all of 24.
[SPEAKER_02]: He only pitched in 12 games last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: He did look pretty good in those 12 games that he was back in last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's 32.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's no reason for them to kind of not use him in that role.
[SPEAKER_02]: Pomerans is an older lefty.
[SPEAKER_02]: not really suited to closer role.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think, even though he'll probably get a handful of saves.
[SPEAKER_02]: Kirby AIDS is the award horse, you know, he's been there for a long time.
[SPEAKER_02]: In the game, he did not have a great season last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, the IRA was up over five.
[SPEAKER_02]: Looks like he might be kind of sliding this way and do a middle relief role.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know that he's going to be a closer anymore, although nothing would surprise me.
[SPEAKER_02]: Romano, you know, was so hurt last year and really lost when you saw him pitch, you know, you kind of felt bad for the guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: I would love for him to see him kind of climb that mountain again and be really good.
[SPEAKER_02]: the question that I have here is I don't what I don't understand is why are they not having read that must stay in the bullpen and yeah I thought he was really good in that role last year and I kept telling people I'm like this guy could close he's got the stuff to be able to do it now I was sudden he's back in the rotation but so is Alec Minoa so I don't know what that really says about their rotation at this point.
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, that nurse could find himself back in the bullpen.
[SPEAKER_02]: If I had to choose one, if you told me Mikey, you got to take one of these guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: Steven said would be my spec even though he's often hurt.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got great stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: If he's healthy, I think he's a 15 to 20 save guy for them this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's absolutely the one I was going with, too.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you look at his last healthy year in 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was really good, you know, that year, you had a, I should be 2023, excuse me.
[SPEAKER_01]: As you missed out, 2024 and almost all of 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you had a 310 ERA, 088 whip, that year, 77 K's and 52 in a third innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a 38% strike at Ray, you know, Walker, it's always been pretty solid with him.
[SPEAKER_01]: as well, but you mentioned it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has not a lot of time on the mound the last couple of years, and he has three career saves, so not a lot of experience in the role, but I think he's the best arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the Angel's build is really weird.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like if I had told you, like back in the early, when the offseason began, so before they made that trade for Rodriguez, that three fifths of their rotation in 2026 is going to be Grayson Rodriguez when they ended up trading for,
[SPEAKER_01]: moving redepers back into the rotation and then getting alcheminoa, you know, to go along with Kakuchi and Saryano.
[SPEAKER_01]: He probably looking at how he had three heads, but that's where we're at with the angels right now, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, both, both and wise, I think Stevenson a lot and similar to Pomp, I want to say with Hogan, Hogan Harris, where, you know, Pomerans is one of two lefties in that bullpen and he's the best lefty in that bullpen, so I think he'll be situationally used a lot,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I definitely think it comes down to him and I'd be fine with him as my RP-3.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's actually, again, you mentioned, if you could say healthy, that's the big thing, but good amount of upside there is an RP-3, but a lot of risks too, obviously.
[SPEAKER_01]: for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now going over to Tampa Bay, Pete Fairbanks has gone.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's now with the Miami Marlins, so he didn't really travel too far.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still in the state of Florida, but now we got a little bit of a battle here in Tampa Bay.
[SPEAKER_01]: Edward, New Setta, Griffin Jacks, maybe a little bit of Garrett Clevvengers.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think probably more so though the first two names they're both the Wich of Had some closing experience over the last handful of years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So who do you think set a B here between you set up and Griffin Jacks?
[SPEAKER_02]: It's funny because you know a lot of people always will stay away from Tampa, but Tampa has actually been a pretty good place to get closers over the last few years, you know.
[SPEAKER_02]: Hayes was column may was there for a while or no Alex column may I should say I'm sorry and then you had fair banks.
[SPEAKER_02]: I love this mix.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think there's a lot of trade room we're going around Clevvenger and that they're going to that they would like to move him.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's the only lefty in that bullpen right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's very good at what he does.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know that he's a closer, even though he had a couple saves last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Jackson's the guy that I'm interested in by far the most.
[SPEAKER_02]: his talent is tantalizing.
[SPEAKER_02]: Minnesota could never decide what his role was.
[SPEAKER_02]: If he was a starter, if he was a middle Indian guy, if he was a closer, then obviously they have a stud there that everything or did have a stud there for a while that you couldn't get past that role.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I think you set up is best to use as a multiple Indian weapon and I think that they would really like to see jacks take that job and run with it.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've always been really high on jacks.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's probably something that I should be checking a little bit more on and check myself on.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think if you got the job straight out, this is a guy that's got a tail on to join the top 10 conversation.
[SPEAKER_02]: and closers in the game.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, well, that actually happened.
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, I have no way of knowing that, but where Jack's is going and what I think he can bring to the table, I think he would be a dynamic closer and be one of the very best if he's given the opportunity to do it, if they would just leave him alone.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I like, honestly, I like both of you guys, Mike.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I like both of you set up and Jack's a good bit here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think they're actually they're both within for a clock,
[SPEAKER_01]: the ADP here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they're both in the top 30 in Reliever ADP.
[SPEAKER_01]: You set as 27th at 239 and they had jacks 23rd at 158.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I think people are leaning jacks here.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is ADP's about 80 spots higher or so, but I like both these arms.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they both have a lot of upside.
[SPEAKER_01]: You look at, you know, Chase, Whiff rate, K rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're both really high.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, jacks is 98% tile and all three of those.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you set a 93% tile or higher and all three of those as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right, right.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think all three are both these guys because it could be RP2 values if given the chance.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think I do lean more towards, I think more like a two thirds, one third thing here with jacks and you set a Galaxy jacks in like 18 to 22 saves and you set a more like in that 10, 11, 12 range.
[SPEAKER_01]: But like you mentioned, Tampa Bay, you know, though they might, you know, not look great on paper right now and they might be the, you know, fifth best team in a load of the ALEs, they're sort of get you some saves, like, yeah, they always compete, they always compete, they always find a way, and that's going to be a really interesting bull kind of me, Jax had a bad year last year to 35% strikeup percentage, I mean, it's just absurd.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he had over ninety ninety five saves each of the last two years, you know, I'm actually going to pull up here.
[SPEAKER_01]: He said he'll be up there in reliever strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, I'm over the last three years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now I got to move it to it last two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... last two years yet he's fifth in strikeouts over the last two years for reliever's behind uh... brine a bray who had the most at two o eight and they similar to o eight kids meant two o seven and germaya strata look at him sitting there for that two hundred and two and he had chatman ds hater lukeweaver and often running at that top ten but yeah i like both guys uh... i'd be fine with with either as my rp three to be honest with you uh... by the way i do lean a little more towards uh... griffin jacks there
[SPEAKER_01]: But both very, very fun arms going over to the three nationally teams here, Arizona.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, last year, it was looking like, oh, you got AJ puck and Justin Martinez.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now both of them are basically out for the year or most of it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're looking at, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: either Kevin Ginkl or Paul C-Wald, both of which have had a little bit of experience here and there.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, C-Wald came over from Detroit.
[SPEAKER_01]: This offseason would be a for agency.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ginkl is meant in the in the system for a decade.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, he was drafted way back in 2016, which is gonna hard to believe, but, you know, who do you like here between Kevin Ginkl and Paul C-Wald here, Mike?
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, I would choose neither at this point.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't I don't know.
[SPEAKER_02]: There are one of them are and are any good.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, they've really wanted gankles to take this job for a long time and he's never really been able to do it.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, there is some news there.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, um, Puck is said to be ahead of schedule.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know that that's, you know, it's February.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, who knows if that's really true or not, but there's some talks that he might be back in May, which I think would be pretty
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, it might not be a total loss here in terms of looking at that.
[SPEAKER_02]: But there is a guy here that doesn't get any mention in here that it could be of interest.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's a guy that they got in the blaze Alexander trade cage shroud.
[SPEAKER_02]: Cage shroud looks like he's going to be like a set up guy for them.
[SPEAKER_02]: But he's got some tools that I think might be interesting.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, Baltimore doesn't have a tendency to give up on pictures.
[SPEAKER_02]: But they really needed that blaze Alexander to be, you know,
[SPEAKER_02]: a guy that they can use as a utility person, but if you pull up Cade Straud and take a look at what he did last year, no granted, it was only 25 games, but his chart is eye popping.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got really good fast ball velocity, but he also really limited hard contact, which I love, you know, and so he's a guy that could kind of be flying under the radar a little bit in Arizona, that could get some save opportunities, I think, Cade Straud, STROWD for those of you
[SPEAKER_02]: uh... i think he's definitely someone you might want to take a look at saw frank is out for the year just in martinas and pop we don't know when they're going to be back or if they're going to be back stroud to me is a nice start throw through in that fifty-a-throwed and looking for somebody who might be able to get you some saves man yeah his uh...
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's that looks pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I hadn't actually pissed about page until just now, but yeah, yeah, he didn't, you know, he didn't pitch enough the qualify and a lot of categories, but he was high up there and a lot of them, I mean, you know, not not a great strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: But got a good amount of chase decent enough with freight as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: XERA XBA all that looks really really good too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Doesn't give a lot of hard contact either only a 1.5% barrel rate allowed 80, 6 mile an hour average EV allowed.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, that's actually pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good amount of ground balls.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you're you're talking me into a little cage out here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like it.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know pitch mix here cutter.
[SPEAKER_01]: You'll deeper pitch mix.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you see for most relievers five pitch mix here for seemer sinker cutter curveball sweeper, you know, and not any huge whiff right there, but a few that are right around 30% so.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's intriguing because, yeah, when it came to the Ginkl or C wall, my answer was no.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: I had the Ginkl coming off.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was better in 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll give him that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But coming off a terrible year last year, I was never a Ginkl guy even before the bad year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, like, right, right, I'm not intrigued there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And C wall, he's
[SPEAKER_01]: can never stay healthy for the most part, 19 and two thirds last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's an ERA before pulling three each of the last two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not super, the sweeper.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll watch his sweeper all day.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a very beautiful sweeper.
[SPEAKER_01]: Really fun on, you know, gifts on Twitter, but you know, in terms of having him on my fantasy team.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm good with both of those two guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Good dark throw there with Kate Stroud.
[SPEAKER_01]: Next one up here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we got what two more here for the national league.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going over to the St. Louis Cardinals, you know, they had
[SPEAKER_01]: They're guy for a long time, and now they're kind of mixing and matching, you know, probably looking at either Riley O'Brien, I'm just a Riley Romero is combining the two names, Riley O'Brien or Jojo Romero, it looks like projections are pretty split on these two guys, they're pretty close in terms of, you know, projected saves here, I do think O'Brien is the higher ADP,
[SPEAKER_01]: guy here, y'all Brian is, where's the guy?
[SPEAKER_01]: He's the 25th or even off the board.
[SPEAKER_01]: Redder on pick 225, Romero was not in the top 30 in the league of 80 p.m.
[SPEAKER_01]: So are you leaning that way with the O'Brien or are you more of a Romero guy?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think Romero's going to get traded, you know, it's been kind of a hot rumor here the last couple of months is that they're going to try to move him.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not crazy about Rob Ryan either, I mean, he's kind of a 31-year-old journeyman.
[SPEAKER_02]: There is a guy in St. Louis that I really do like and it's a guy that we talked about in Arizona and, you know,
[SPEAKER_02]: The Rick Graham and I brought up in our presentation.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's also a guy that Greg Jude and I talked about on our last panel as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: And this mess Fonson, he's a 27 year old righty.
[SPEAKER_02]: He appeared in 39 games last year for them.
[SPEAKER_02]: Good strike out right again.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you look at his stat cast, you'll like a lot of what you see there.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a
[SPEAKER_02]: 29% K percentage, 35.9% heart hit percentage, fastball, VLOs, about 97, really limited hard contact and it's a guide that I think could end up sneaking into that role.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that there, I think any time you have three guys that are trying for a job, you probably don't have anybody.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I think when you look at what St. Louis is doing, I could see a situation where O'Brien starts to year with a job.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe he does okay and they move him for something and try to give some value for him and that Sponson kind of takes over that role.
[SPEAKER_02]: I do like him quite a bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: I saw him pitch in person last year as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: Big guy coming downhill, really good extension.
[SPEAKER_02]: And intriguing name.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I probably would not draft a Brian or Romero and I would probably do a Dark Throw on Sponson at the end if I was desperate for trying to find somebody that could be speculative for saves.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, definitely has an Arizona feel where like the top two guys on paper just aren't that intriguing though I would say I do like the St. Louis duo more than the Arizona duo, but yeah, this whole plan was one I've been pretty much avoiding for the most part.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I do like Swanson.
[SPEAKER_01]: as well, you know, a lot of good metrics on this event page, a 29 percent strike out right last year, eight and a half percent walk right, e-edery under two, you know, big, with right offerings here, but you know, he mixes well, like sinkers, sweeper, cutter, you know, he pitches in three different velocity bands to like, you know, mid to upper 90s with that sinker around around 97, cutters around 92, sweeper 87,
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he mixes pretty well and does get a decent amount of with though the chase right not super great, but yeah, that's another decent specs add there are targets in deeper league drafts Matt Swanson though he needs to change that V to a W just to make it easy.
[SPEAKER_01]: my mouth does not like saying so on said I just know I know I know I'm not skin than a be an either man I know what you mean uh... is this is this this commentational letters my mouth is just does not like so just to be a favorite man is to take make that a w make it easier on me uh... i can't i can't but uh... last one here the alashita national so if you look at the entirety of their is pitching staff rotation and bullpen
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just like, it's not good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm trying to not be mean here, but it just looks at the Q-Core.
[SPEAKER_01]: When you look at, you know, like, there are ace quote unquote, is Milus Mikaless or Kate Gavali or Brad Lord, but in the bullpen, it's not much better, but, you know, looking at either Clayton Beater or a couple Henry for the most part of those at the top two,
[SPEAKER_01]: on the death charts here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got a lot of projections are pretty split on these two guys as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Beater, you know, both these guys are actually former, you know, decently kind of ranked and thought of pitching prospects, you know, Henry coming up, you know, through the net system, they drafted him back in the short and 2020 draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was a big, cool Henry guy back in the day, but then
[SPEAKER_01]: he had a lot of injury concerns that kind of bumped him way down.
[SPEAKER_01]: Beater, you know, more of the upside flyer going through the Yankees since they got him be a trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year at the deadline, who do you like here between Beater or Henry this year?
[SPEAKER_02]: I would lean
[SPEAKER_02]: Peter here.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not crazy about the situation.
[SPEAKER_02]: It wreaks of kind of Kaufman again where you're going to get those painful saves.
[SPEAKER_02]: You might get a handful of saves with a five year array.
[SPEAKER_02]: There is an intriguing person here though as well that I would like to talk about real quick.
[SPEAKER_02]: Rule five tip that they had this year of Griff McGarry who was a
[SPEAKER_02]: to an healthier prospect for a while and they think it would have been the bullpen a little bit last year, two years ago, I should say, and he started predominantly last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's slated for a long relief role in Washington, I believe right now, but he's got some eye popping stuff and it was definitely a guy that was high up on prospect lists a few years back.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm sure that you probably are familiar with him more than I am, but
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I don't see it in reason why he went and I be able to get an opportunity.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's only got to beat out Jackson Rutledge and Gus Varland and Richard Lovelady was one of my favorite names in the sport, um, but I don't see why, you know, that, that couldn't happen.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, uh, Peter did a decent job last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I, I think he,
[SPEAKER_02]: Is that type of guy though?
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the walks are going to really be a killer and I don't know you can foresee good ratios.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I'm probably avoid this all together.
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, if you're looking, if you're in really, really deep leagues and you're looking for somebody at the end, McGarry, it could be a little interesting.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he I saw him a few times live when he was in the Philly system and he's one of those guys were the stuff was really good and he's always a pretty good strike at rates, but he just didn't know where to heck it was going.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that led to a lot of blow up outings and I always thought he'd be better in the bullpen.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what looks like it will be the path here for him in Washington.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want either a beater or a Henry, if I had to pick one, I do, you know, greedy there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would lean beater, but also when I was doing talking pitching prospects a few episodes ago, I kind of made a claim that, you know, I think Luis Parales moves into the role body into the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I like his stuff is really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think they're good, you know, moving the bullpen right now, but I can see him bringing him up and just to keep his innings down after missing a good trick of time over the last year or two, putting him in the bullpen, but then him this being so good there, they just keep him there.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of like kind of how I'm, you know, imagine this playing, you know, I think he could be a really good believer.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think if it doesn't work out, you know, in the rotation, I think hardly in Susanna could be a really good closer.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, they got some stuff coming up through the minor leagues, that's for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, in Griffin, Gary as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So they got some pretty intriguing stuff, you know, guys that could step into the role, but yeah, beater, Henry,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, neither one are super intrigued in there, but yeah, I will lean beater as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So those are a few painful situations there, but some some sneaky spec guys to keep an eye on in your drafts or on the waiver wire as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's move into, you know, move it to some saves holds talk here because I don't know a lot of leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, value holds in some capacity, whether it straight up saves holes or one of the, you know, many variations that fan tracks has they have a eight different variations or something like that, but let's show these guys some love here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So who are some guys, you know, Mike that you
[SPEAKER_01]: in these, let's just say like a saves holds format.
[SPEAKER_01]: Get that big bump.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's a few guys that I think jump right off the page that you like hunter goddess, Ryan or Brayu, you know, even Andrew Kittridge, Jason the Dom, guys like that, even Jeremiah Strahdot, these guys that have been high up there and holds, but who are some names that you see that just jump off with a lot more value in those formats that value holds.
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, you brought up a couple of guys already, but you know, if you look at Toronto, you know, you've got Tyler Rogers, who, you know, will get a lot of holds there.
[SPEAKER_02]: He always is over 30.
[SPEAKER_02]: Brent, Brent and Little was a guy last year, a lefty for them.
[SPEAKER_02]: They got a ton of work and also had a ton of holds.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you're 30% strikeout rate and he had 30 hold.
[SPEAKER_02]: So the guys that you want to take a look at.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I think, and the white socks, I know, you know, we talked a little bit about them off air.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, they obviously signed serenity to the Mingaz and he's going to be their closer.
[SPEAKER_02]: But they have a young guy, their name Grant Taylor, who you should become familiar with.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know you are because of your work, but, um, a lot of people are going to see that he's not going to get saves, but I think he's going to get it on a hold.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to use him a lot as a two-in-ing type of guy in the middle of games.
[SPEAKER_02]: He eventually will probably be a starter for them.
[SPEAKER_02]: he could be the closer, but I don't see that happening.
[SPEAKER_02]: They really have an airmarked for the rotation down the road.
[SPEAKER_02]: But the White Sabbath bullpen is going to be surprisingly better this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I will I will die on that hill.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean Sean Newcome was a really nice addition Jordan Leisure was the closer at the end of last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: They've got Taylor on
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know what they'll get out of Jordan Hicks, if anything, but my vessel was another guy that was really useful for them last year in a multiple Indian role.
[SPEAKER_02]: I definitely think that Taylor is a guy that is an up and coming holds type of guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: You brought up Gattas.
[SPEAKER_02]: Gattas is great.
[SPEAKER_02]: Another guy on Cleveland that I really like in that format is Eric Sebrowski.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a very vicious lefty that's coming up with them and he's going to get a lot of work this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Definitely somebody that you should know.
[SPEAKER_02]: Tyler Holton and Detroit is another one depending on what his role might be, a very valuable picture.
[SPEAKER_02]: I definitely could be a guy that's looking at Holves, I'm avoiding Minnesota, just kind of as a rule.
[SPEAKER_02]: I just don't really know what's.
[SPEAKER_02]: I would really like to see Taj Bradley be the closer there, but I, you know, Liam Hendrix is there.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, maybe he will end up getting that job, Taylor Rogers looks like the closer right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: But those are some names that I think that you might want to pay attention to.
[SPEAKER_02]: Also, Jose Ferrer and Seattle, you know, moving from Washington to Seattle, he could be a guy who gets a ton of opportunities at getting holds as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So those are just a few names that I'm kind of thinking about.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, obviously there's a Philadelphia bullpen, but it's hard to say how that's all going to work out Brad Keller is there now.
[SPEAKER_02]: So Brad Keller could get some of those strong opportunities, even though he's a different hand, I realized that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are all kinds of guys that I love grandma Ashcraft I could talk about him all day.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah, I think he's I like him too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's going to get a lot of holds and you know, it's begun.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I should somehow slide into the toilet, you know, Ashcraft could be a guy that sneaks into getting a bunch of save opportunities as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: also in Pittsburgh and another dark throne name to just know and it's an old friend from Colorado.
[SPEAKER_02]: Justin Lawrence is kind of flying under the radar and Dennis Santana will be the closer to start the year there.
[SPEAKER_02]: They could look to trade him or he could flop.
[SPEAKER_02]: Justin Lawrence was tremendous for them down the stretch.
[SPEAKER_02]: He might remember that for about a two or three year period in Colorado, people thought he was going to be the closer that never happened but he resurfaced in
[SPEAKER_02]: Pittsburgh last year and was really, really good.
[SPEAKER_02]: So just a few names to know there.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mentioned Cade Stroud already, you know, those are some people that you might want to circle, especially at the end of really, really deep drafts when you're looking for somebody that might be able to provide you something that no one else has seen.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, a lot of good names there and I'm glad you just Lawrence he was always really intriguing, but yeah, Colorado right I mean like I don't I don't want anybody to do it any any arm on Colorado right right even like Victor vodka we didn't talk about, but he's he's the guy there you might get to you know 20 saves something like that, but I was zero desire to go after Victor vodka maybe as an RP three I guess because I'll practice these games, but yeah that
[SPEAKER_01]: No desire to be halver soon was supposed to be a thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't really become a thing yet.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they got one of my he, Jimmy Hurgets Brennan Bernardino Bernardino from the Red Sox, but it's so barren barren wasteland in Colorado at this point really, but.
[SPEAKER_01]: How always seems to be, so what's close up the show by talking about Colorado Rock Nams kidding.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not going to be that mean, but close up the show with a couple of younger names like maybe could emerge this year or in the coming years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Grant Taylor was going to be one of my names I talked about.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like him a lot as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So glad you brought him up.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I already talked about another one in Louis Parallel.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think emerges in the bullpen role.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what more I want to talk about then I'll give Mike the Florida close up the show.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was never actually that high on as a prospect.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's good when he was a starter.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now that he's in the bullpen, I like him a decent bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's Connor Phillips with the Cincinnati Reds.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the sky could not hit the process of a bar when he was a prospect to pry walk rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's still the case.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 12% walk rate last year, but 32.7% k-ray.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is just in 25 innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: I get a 288 ERA.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a throws upper 90s for Seamer and a really good mid 80s sweeper that had a 53% with rate in a 0.53 batting average against last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, mixing these occasional curve ball, but primarily
[SPEAKER_01]: that force team sweeper so you know he's got the stuff then he's got to be pretty erratic so he may be the ratios aren't super great and right now he's got that he's not anywhere remotely close to the closure role in that depth chart right now so but i get deeper diicy league i think he's got to pick up now for free and maybe he moves into a higher leverage roll later on the year or in twenty twenty seven and beyond so
[SPEAKER_01]: Connor Phillips is a name here that I kind of like a decent bit now days now that he's cheap and in the bullpen But any any names for you here Mike the young guys I could emerge.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's always hard to look at that I think and have a crystal ball right because you don't you don't really see teams like teams in the minor league Don't really develop closures, right guys get to the show They exhibit the skill and then they kind of you know move into that type of a of a situation
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, so it's, it's a really tough question for me to be able to answer, uh, based on the criteria that we're kind of looking at and looking at somebody that's, that's young that could, you know, become, uh, something that's, you know, bigger and greater than, and what he is now, you know,
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, one guy that we did not mention and San Francisco that could have a big role this year is Joel Pogaro, he's not a young guy, but you know, with Ryan Walker given his troubles over the years and the fact that they seem to like to use him in a different type of role, you know, that he's somebody that really could kind of, um,
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, take on a roll there.
[SPEAKER_02]: Also, you know, Randy Red Regus is going to miss the year, but Randy Red Regus is a guy to really remember for 27.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, he could step into a roll back in San Francisco.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's electric as you know, somebody that's really an important guy there that they're not going to have access to this year, but it's clearly the best arm in their bullpen when he's healthy.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I feel like I'm kind of copying out a little bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, but, you know, another guy that you can kind of think about too, that it's coming back from entry, that I'm super intrigued in and it's going to sound like a homer pic is Prelander Barroa, you know, he heard his arm last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, he's a guy that could absolutely climb that white socks ladder quickly and be a difference maker at the back end of their bullpen.
[SPEAKER_02]: I was a little surprised, you know, the white socks signed at Dominguez to a two-year contract.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think it is a legit two-year contract as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think it's one year with an option.
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it is an option.
[SPEAKER_02]: But you know, I could see a definite situation where, you know, they get something out of him and then they're able to move him for something and that that role becomes open and maybe it's leisure or maybe it's Baroa and the white sacks are up and coming.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to be better this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know how much better, but they're definitely going to have some intriguing late in the options there towards the end of the season.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what a good, you know, what a good upside arms in that white socks bullpen, whether it be right now or coming down the pipe there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So another guy, Wilkomingan Zollas, who, yes, some of the best, I saw him a lot when he was here as using the in the socks system for a handful of years, or something double A, whiffle ball stuff, like that ball, who, yes.
[SPEAKER_01]: he just didn't always know where it was going.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if he can somehow harness that, maybe welcoming as all his turns into something, but who knows?
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to predict, especially with these guys that have been so wild for so long.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, that's going to wrap us up, Mike, you know, thank you so much for joining me always a pleasure talking with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: And good episode here talking about relievers, but what are you, what are you going on right now?
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, geez, what don't I have going on right now?
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a better question, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: So the Glarf draft is this weekend.
[SPEAKER_02]: I now consider being in the earth league and being in Glarf is my home league.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are my family and friends there.
[SPEAKER_02]: I love those guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: Can't wait to see them all this weekend.
[SPEAKER_02]: So got that going on.
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll start doing those reliever pieces here shortly again.
[SPEAKER_02]: And in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in,
[SPEAKER_02]: highlighting some of these guys and looking at charts.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to be doing a couple of waver wire pieces over at Rotabauer every week as well starting here in the next few weeks.
[SPEAKER_02]: I also, I didn't let you know this, but I also am going to be doing some playing time coverage for the white socks at HQ.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so yeah, I'm pretty excited about that that's always kind of been in the back of my mind that was always to me getting to HQ was kind of like quote unquote making it, you know, and so I'm going to be doing that as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then the fantasy baseball beat will be back next month to Dave and I are going to start recording we're going to absolutely have you on at some point early on if you're when you're available.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you know, just always love coming on with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I say it every time we're on an Eric, that only are you a great friend and I'm meant for to so many in this community.
[SPEAKER_02]: Every opportunity that I've gotten in the community has been almost directly, commensurate with my relationship with you because you were able to get me in at places that I probably wouldn't have been able to get into on my own merit.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I needed my foot in the door and I've
[SPEAKER_02]: was able to do that and they've worked hard to be able to get there, but I'm always grateful to you and to you for your friendship and your leadership and your mentorship in the field.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you don't know Eric personally and you meet him in Arizona is one of the kindest human beings that you will ever meet and I am always so grateful for your friendship and support over the years.
[SPEAKER_02]: I owe you a huge debt of gratitude and anytime you need me to come on I will always make time to come on because I just love talking with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: You're a great friend and just can't thank you enough for all the things you've done for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: The feeling is mutual.
[SPEAKER_01]: I always said that I could stop writing right the second and I would still keep a touch with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: We still talk in the NBA friends, even if we both left the industry today.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, thank you for the kind words right back at you.
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the best in the business, one of the hardest working guys, one of the best guys, Mike Carter at MDRC 05 08 on Twitter writes to me over at Rotobar.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, Rotobar is great.
[SPEAKER_01]: So much content wrote a baller.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's ridiculous.
[SPEAKER_01]: The draft kit is great.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well worth the price tag.
[SPEAKER_01]: So many tools.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can do your team sink, custom rankings, mock drafts, ATC projections, line up optimizer.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of great stuff content and beyond at wrote a baller.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you can check that out, wrote a baller.com slash MLB.
[SPEAKER_01]: Check all the great stuff there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I will be back with you again next week.
[SPEAKER_01]: Got a few episodes next week.
[SPEAKER_01]: But until then, everyone take care.