[SPEAKER_01]: Hey everybody, J.J. Cooper, Mark Cheerle.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm another of the baseball America Prospect podcast deep dives.
[SPEAKER_01]: Today, we are taking an in-depth look at the athletics firm system, a system that produce J.K. Wilson and then turn around and produce Dick Kurtz.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not only the AL rookie of the year, but like one of the great rookie seasons we have seen in recent years, basically, less than a year after he was drafted.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was one of the best first baseman in the American League.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is kind of the kind of instant production that you dream about when you draft the player.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen that, and now we're gonna take a look in-depth at what the A still have coming.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Mark, one of the things that really does jump out is we could talk about the guys that they've produced, but they also then landed the best prospect we have seen traded at the deadline in quite a while in lieu of Reeves, part of the Mason Miller trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that kind of made the decision of who's number one in the system.
[SPEAKER_01]: I imagine a little bit easier than it would have been if you had been battling between Jamie, Ardo and Gage jump, which I know you and I spent a whole lot of time kind of debating those two guys back and forth didn't have reached us up and it's like, oh, okay, that's the debate, but who's two and who's three.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he very opportune timing in his arrival because, and I think we both liked the depth of the system.
[SPEAKER_00]: But there was a brief moment where without Nick Kurtz at the top, it things are starting to look a little, a little bearing at the top of the system.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then here comes at the time, a top five prospect.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the debate about who was number one, even when, you know, you pull people inside or outside the organization, didn't have to go too far.
[SPEAKER_00]: Leo DeVries was the answer.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the more interesting
[SPEAKER_00]: debate or conversation that we had was more where he slaughtered in this year among the top prospects in baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: And as you can see over a year, he did drop ever so slightly out of the top five he's now 13th I believe on our top 100 entering the season.
[SPEAKER_00]: So maybe some slight nitpicks or questions relative to where he was last year as far as the overall landscape, but when it comes to this organization very clearly the top prospect.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I would say with degrees, the things that stood out when I was making calls, talking to Scouts last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like that for all of him dropping a little bit, like there are not that many questions offensively, although it's always a difficult evaluation.
[SPEAKER_01]: The way the podries move players makes for a difficult evaluation because they're often at a level so far beyond their contemporaries as far as what level they're playing at.
[SPEAKER_01]: That when they struggle, you could either say, oh, they're struggling, or you can say, yeah, but they're also, they're the youngest player in the league by far, you could talk about that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the other thing that I kept getting it, obviously, you've done more reporting than I have on this, I was getting really solid reports as far as like this is a store fire potentially defensively impactful short stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: What is your sense of like, if you're at A's fan, you're watching this, I think there's a question of, okay, the breeze is coming.
[SPEAKER_01]: He can't be that far away.
[SPEAKER_01]: If he was already at AA last year, even if he's incredibly young,
[SPEAKER_01]: When he arrives, is he a guy who you say, hey, Jacob Wilson, maybe second base, you know, looks really good for you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe third base looks really good for you.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the breeze goes to shortstop or is it something where the defense for the breeze is such that maybe the breeze is the one who's on the move.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Devries is defensive upside for our surpasses Wilson.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think the A's were overly enthralled.
[SPEAKER_00]: There have been overly enthralled with Wilson's shortstop defense so far in the majors.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, so I, the opinions on his defense that I got maybe ran the game at a little bit more than what you described.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there are times where you see a tremendous arm.
[SPEAKER_00]: You see the ability to make tougher plays in the average shortstop.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think at times he shows a really good internal clock at other times I think that the game can speed up on him.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's some just overall youth or defensive maturity questions with him that popped up, especially once he got to the A system.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that there's some sharpening on the defensive side, whether it's your team pre pitch positioning, some of the nuances I feel like they think that there's some room.
[SPEAKER_00]: to go there.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you catch him on the right day or even the right week, you think it's at least in above average shortstop if not more.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if I had to, if I had to project out in the future, I think he has a better chance at sticking at shortstop.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I will say it's not without some areas that's still need to be cleaned up.
[SPEAKER_01]: 21 errors last year, 941, fielding percentage.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously lower than you're going to want and you're expected at the big league level, but then that comes that caveat that we just talked about before, which is, yes, but this was also a teenager who played at high A and then double A where you said, like, okay, he doesn't have the experience that maybe he just needs to learn some of the things.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's that balance of what you're seeing the flashes of, but can he get to the consistency, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I felt like at times, too, even when you go back and watch synergy, the arm accuracy wavered a lot with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: There were times where you could very clearly see that he gets sped up and he started to spray throws.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that if he can get that dialed in, the strength is there, and he can make every play.
[SPEAKER_00]: There are times where you fire up synergy and watch him, and it's a lot of fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's we've talked about it on the podcast before, but like one of the things I wanted to do that I wanted everyone to look at for us on the staff was is I pulled up Basically the best place for all of the top hundred short stops, and we sit that around and do little cut ups and
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, that is a best case scenario, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are, you're not talking about what you just talked about.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're not talking about the routine grounder to short where he doesn't attack it aggressively enough.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then he has to hurry his throw, but he doesn't get his feet set and the throw leads to the first basement off the bag.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not the place that I was grabbing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was grabbing like, show me the best that this guy can look because the assumption being in general doesn't always work this way.
[SPEAKER_01]: But in general,
[SPEAKER_01]: Short stops, teenage short stops I would say, often commit errors.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's almost not a bad thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: When you see that a short stop, a teenage short stop had 25 errors.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can always use the Derek Jeter example of what he was an Abel and how many errors he made.
[SPEAKER_01]: You almost would rather have that than the guy who just can't make the play, who just kind of puts the ball in his, you want those guys to figure out what they can do and can't do and the guys who can't offer the ones for a little bit more reliable because they just get to a boss like, oh, I can't make that play you want the guys who early on in their career have that arrogance of like, I can make every play and then eventually they realize, you know, if I'm going behind second base and I have to spin and throw and I'm jumping while I'm doing it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I've got a 5% chance of getting the guy out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I should just keep that ball in my pocket.
[SPEAKER_01]: You want them to be, again, a necessary error against almost enough that they can make that play till they learn they can't.
[SPEAKER_01]: You see that a little bit with DeVries at time.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean that in a good way, like the best plays that he makes are one drill like, wow, that was really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Or even the best plays he almost makes are ones where you say,
[SPEAKER_01]: Wow, that was almost a really good play.
[SPEAKER_01]: I see what he was trying to do there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would much rather have that than the guy who, you know, okay, the ball's two steps to into the hole.
[SPEAKER_01]: He fields it and he's kind of puts in his pockets like I don't have the arm to make that throw.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, yep, you're not going to play shortstop long-term.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: Leo knows he has the honor to make that throw.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has the honor to make any throw.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think part, like you said, it's knowing when to let it go and when to not.
[SPEAKER_00]: I had a very interesting short stop defensive deep to have experience this winter too, because the other system that I do for us is the pirate.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it was a lot of watching Connor Griffin.
[SPEAKER_00]: a lot of watching Leo DeVry into your point, the necessary arrogance.
[SPEAKER_00]: I really like that term shows up with both, I think.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was interesting at times watching DeVry because there was a little more rawness to his approach, even relative to Griffin.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know we have a separate podcast to talk about kind of Griffin, but yet another reason why one guy is one at the top 100 and the other we're trying to maybe find a home for a couple of spots below, but it's a lot of fun.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is a lot of fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do want to talk about here we just mentioned, if I had been for the free acquisition, it would have been Jamie Arnold versus Gage jump as the clear, they were the next guys up.
[SPEAKER_01]: But which one was going to be first among those two guys?
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say you can see it in our top hundred.
[SPEAKER_01]: You could barely stick a piece of paper in between those two guys when it comes to you could make the case for either one as the next up Arnold ended up being your number two jump in it up being three what kind of lead to like okay at the end of the day even though I will emphasize this is a very small difference, but what was it's like okay Arnold's going to be ahead of jump on this.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think there were a couple things.
[SPEAKER_00]: One, I think Arnold has ever so slight lead in some of the more traditional evaluation areas or scouting indicators.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has good size, great track record of production of Florida State.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a chance for three plus pitches.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a pretty explosive operation coming down the mound.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think those things stood out for him.
[SPEAKER_00]: report.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we're reporting these lists as deep as we can.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think in conversations with a lot of folks internally, I think Arnold ever so slightly had the edge for probably the reasons that I said before and also he was the 11th pick in the draft.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's at first round coming in hasn't made his pro debut yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it was very close.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think with jump.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jump has some pitch data that really blows you away.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the fastball characteristics are impeccable.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's got a really fun sleeper that he worked on and kind of evolved over last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can see the pitch mix.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's when you watch him in a visually evaluating him, it's kind of a herky jerky delivery.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's size, there's elbow surgery on his ledger.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's some risk there.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that it was really close.
[SPEAKER_00]: Arnold just went out by a whisker.
[SPEAKER_01]: That kind of leads into the next question.
[SPEAKER_01]: When you look at where the system is now compared to was a year ago, obviously it does not have Nick Kurtz.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ranking wise, I think we had an 11th last year, 9th now, so they're very similar range.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the thing that really does stand out is the way this system lines up now is very different.
[SPEAKER_01]: It feels like then it was a year ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: A year ago it was, you know, we're coming off of Jacob Wilson, but it's the cards, it's you was, it was the hitter heavy system, you know, not just them.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen the A's push multiple position players to the majors in recent years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you look at the system, obviously, to freeze leads to the way, we have you, Hensi Colene at number four, who've just signed the International, signing one of the best international prospects in this year's class, he moves right into four, which by the way, that is a very high ranking that kind of just signifies how well regarded he is kind of coming out of this January 15 signing day.
[SPEAKER_01]: But,
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are the only two position players in the top six.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a very, and you go beyond that, like you get to the teams and it's just all pitchers for a while.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, when you're kind of doing this, it feels like that the shape of this system has changed significantly from a year ago, more than it has kind of moved up or down.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's correct.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's more picture heavy, especially at the top than I can remember the last couple years of doing the system.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what you want when you look at the major league roster composition and where the steam could go this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Big questions how quickly can some of these guys get there.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the answer is pretty quickly, whether it's Arnold or jump, even way inland and did last year at AA.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's certainly pitching heavy on the flip side.
[SPEAKER_00]: We've become accustomed to the upper level hitting depth or in upper level hitting impact outside a debris.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of question marks there.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have Henry Bolty ranked seventh.
[SPEAKER_00]: If everything goes right for Henry Bolty, it's a men's upside, it's tools all over the board.
[SPEAKER_00]: The if everything goes right is doing a lot of heavy lifting because they're a significant conference.
[SPEAKER_00]: Everything goes wrong.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a regular.
[SPEAKER_00]: If everything goes wrong, he's probably out of the system, you know, in the not too distant future.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's a very high risk, high reward guy that I don't know that you have a ton of confidence in the top 10 as far as his bat being able to help you for long stretches this season.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do really like the pitching.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they've done a really good job over the last two years and their previous pitching coordinator Mike McFarron came in and
[SPEAKER_00]: with outlier release characteristics.
[SPEAKER_00]: And they figured out a good way to weaponize them.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you look at Jamie Arnold.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's such a low slot.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a slot that people don't really hit or don't really see from the left side.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jump's kind of the opposite, where he's that upshoe riding fastball.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even Lynn is kind of all arms and legs coming down the mound at you.
[SPEAKER_00]: You kind of go up and down and
[SPEAKER_00]: they've started to figure out and it's different types of arms.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not necessarily just one type of picture over and over and over again.
[SPEAKER_00]: They've started to do a much better job figuring out how to get more out of pictures like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that it's reflected in this list this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I do want to kind of hit on that way you just said they're like to delay it out like big picture with this, like so this is an organization that in the last couple of years, you know, power saw this from had his kind of breakout year movement, you know, kind of they kind of I feel like he had the year where you're like, okay, now he's no longer.
[SPEAKER_01]: is he going to emerge?
[SPEAKER_01]: He's now a key part of this.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we obviously talked about Wilson.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about Kurt's, but in top of that, then Zell Clark, who I think is being asked, go be the best defensive center fielder in the American League, and what you hit will be a nice little bonus.
[SPEAKER_01]: Lawrence Butler has gotten there too.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I would say that Shalinga Lears is not old by any stretch of imagination.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a really Colby Thomas probably's on the bench somewhere.
[SPEAKER_01]: This team has produced a lot of, I see Langelears with the tray, but this team has produced a lot of players, young players, who are now in the lineup and not just in the lineup, but in the lineup and can be expected.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can count on Wilson.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can count on Clark.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can count on, I think, defense of Clark.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can count on Kirk.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can count on Sodorstrom.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have these guys where you're no longer, these are no longer what will these guys be.
[SPEAKER_01]: You are saying these are cornerstone guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you flip over to the, to the rotation and it's kind of what you're saying here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, there are the Savali's and the Jeffrey Springs and the Jacob Lopez's and all guys who are there.
[SPEAKER_01]: But there is clearly room.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say for the, the gauge jumps and the Jamie Arnold's and all to kind of the lens to move up move in.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the other thing I'll say with that is if I do kind of wonder, this does not need gauge jump makes the opening day rotation.
[SPEAKER_01]: What they saw last year with Kurtz, I'm not faulting them.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Nick Kurtz had pretty much had no minor league experience, coming off of an injury plague draft year in college.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Nick Kurtz in hindsight, he was like, he just kept driving the ball game after game, in spring training.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was out in spring training.
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember seeing him like going, feel like he doubles every time I see him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was doing that in spring training.
[SPEAKER_01]: In hindsight, if they had just said, here you go, here's the job, they would have gotten an extra pick because he came up too late to get a PPI pick.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not saying that if gauge jump or J.B. Arnold looks really good in spring training.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're pitchers, it's a little bit harder to win rookie the year in their scenarios.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're probably gonna limit them innings, why isn't all that?
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think they've seen like with Wilson, they've seen with Kurtz,
[SPEAKER_01]: Moving guy is fast, especially college guys, the main lip position players, but moving those guys quickly hasn't come back to hurt them yet, I feel it.
[SPEAKER_00]: 100% and I know that there's some prospect promotion incentive regret in hindsight looking back with what happened with Kurds.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, but I also think that there was a sustained track record of hitting development even on the minor league side.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know we've talked about this in the past where you did the study looking back at how how much power each system produces in the A's.
[SPEAKER_00]: always at the top and it's also there is a correlation there to draft capital right but they they prioritize hitters at that the top and the draft for a number of years and that came to fruition and now you're starting to see the pitching piece come.
[SPEAKER_00]: My Arnold is a premium pick.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're starting to see it on the miners.
[SPEAKER_00]: The challenge is how quickly can you replicate the success where these guys get to the majors and keep getting better?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if you're looking for optimism or a sign of encouragement, when Luis Morales got to the majors last year, he continued to refine.
[SPEAKER_00]: When Jack Perkins got to the majors, he was really good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know he got hurt.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's really a big issue with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: their development, you know, didn't stall out.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's continuing.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're both going to be key pieces.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now you look at this system.
[SPEAKER_00]: The guys come in X and it's almost like a race.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that if if the A's hit, like we expect them to hit, I think it's one of the most exciting homegrown lineups in baseball, they should be around 500.
[SPEAKER_00]: They can be on the fringe of a wildcard spot.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then it's it's how quickly can you get these guys there.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think Arnold and Jump
[SPEAKER_00]: The ace have never scared for moving guys aggressively.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I mentioned this earlier.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would throw away in Lynn in there, even though he's only 19.
[SPEAKER_00]: I put Brad net in that conversation as an upper level guy with some really interesting You know spin characteristics he's got a deep kitchen sink of pitches that he can throw it guys
[SPEAKER_00]: There's depth there and I think that if they can avoid, you know, some of the struggles and they had just a terrible stretch last year between May and June if they're around 500.
[SPEAKER_00]: you're gonna see some of these guys move pretty aggressively.
[SPEAKER_00]: The only other piece I would say to you that is a real question mark and it's even a challenge as we kind of project this out is just, there's some walkingness there with the home ballpark too as it relates to how these pictures are developing.
[SPEAKER_00]: Once they're continuing to improve once they get to the majors and I think that also is certainly helps some of the offensive output here with some of these guys in the lineup,
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that they've solved that part of it, and it is a temporary issue I guess, until they get to Vegas, but that's another element that we're seeing them try to work through.
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say with that, like it's hard to imagine them catching the Mariners who have done a good job.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're in the ALCS last year, weren't that far away for the World Series, and then have done a lot of good work this off season to kind of buttress that team.
[SPEAKER_01]: You look at the rest of this division and you say, okay, the Rangers, the Astros, and definitely the Angels, like anyone else, like they could be, I could see wildcard contention being like, again, that's kind of a best case scenario, but it's not crazy, like you just laid out.
[SPEAKER_01]: This team could get there, and that'd be the first time in a while.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, now, I will ask then, the devries time table.
[SPEAKER_01]: We always ask questions, who's your guest to be next year's number one?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll phrase it this way to start.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll talk about the breeze first.
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you think are the chances that the breeze could graduate this year?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that too soon?
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, I don't think it's too soon.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would not be surprised if he gets there.
[SPEAKER_00]: I did broach this over the winter and there was some distinction made.
[SPEAKER_00]: You mentioned earlier too.
[SPEAKER_00]: They've been comfortable aggressively moving college guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have not seen it yet with a teenager or an international signing.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that there was acknowledgement across the board that
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a lot of areas of his game that he still needs to clean up.
[SPEAKER_00]: So while I know that the A's Traditionally or historically last couple years have been aggressive.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that it's going to be Devory that that's the one that they're they're racing through, but he did that in the year and double I mid then I'd probably put it at
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe a 30% a 35% I'd go less less than 50 50, but again, the longer that you're in contention and they have, they have not been able to figure out a third-based solution for the last, the last two years, I don't even know that second base is something that they feel great about.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's not opportunity there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll say, if he does, that would be amazing from the standpoint of this is a player who's going to play all year at 19 to just put it in perspective, you know, we have Rock Chalowski as our number one draft prospect.
[SPEAKER_01]: Rock Chalowski is basically a year and a half older than Leo de Vries, like I could see that to me, like if you asked me to guess, I could see him getting to the majors by the end of the year, that's very possible graduating, I think feels.
[SPEAKER_01]: that that's going to be tougher 45 days or 130, you know, at that.
[SPEAKER_01]: That would be a very speedy ascent for a guy who will basically be 20 when next, you know, an opening day next year rise.
[SPEAKER_01]: With 20 next year, okay, I would expect him to graduate in in 27.
[SPEAKER_01]: But okay, assuming let's just take him out of it, let's say like who's next up, I would say with you, you just laid this out with Arnold and Jum.
[SPEAKER_01]: Either of them, if they have the season that makes them the clear number one, it's hard for me to imagine that they do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Arnold Kud, I mean, he is basically a drafty from last year, but both of those guys feel like there's a good chance that they would then graduate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that they're kind of more likely to graduate than to freeze.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is there any one that you look at on here like, you know, Lynn, you just laid out the kind of the same scenario.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like if Lynn's really good, he could graduate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Column is obviously next up from the standpoint of, he's number four in this list, but I think that that's a tough one from a standpoint of it's not that we'll never rank a guy who has it played full season ball number one in a system, but he's not gonna play full season ball this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: will see if it's entirely DSL, that's normally not the guy who's a number one prospect could be a high prospect in a system, but not number one.
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's even take him out of it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is there someone else who you look at and say, this could be a candidate internally, and then I'll get to kind of the part that's currently external.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think Jump has a as a much higher likelihood of graduating than Arnold.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even last year, I mean, we've talked about trace average, Nolan McLean had a meteoric rise.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those guys are still eligible.
[SPEAKER_00]: This year, Boba Chandler was another one who's still retained his prospect eligibility.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think for Arnold to graduate off this list would have to be like a 99, 100% tile type season.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, he doesn't even made his pro debut yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would say Arnold is is the favorite, uh, we ruled out Call of May.
[SPEAKER_00]: The, the one interesting guy is Edgar Montero.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have him A right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he repeated the DSL, which is, uh, not a flashing big red flag at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, I think that the teams are, or,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, a little bit more willing to send guys back now than maybe maybe they were in the past, but it also you have to look at his production with skepticism, but the thing that Montero did compared to last year completely overhaul this body, he is completely different athlete he was stronger.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh, leaner, he moved much better at short stop.
[SPEAKER_00]: He hit for a ton of power.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that he frankly was, um, I think that DSL pitching was, was a little beneath him for, for most of last year and very easily could have been in the ACL.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's probably the one where if he can stack like what he did last year again when he gets Sarah's own of this year or even moves on to, to the lowest stocked in that I could see that happening fairly quickly.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's the one that I think
[SPEAKER_01]: The other part, the external part here is that they also, this is a team that picks eight in the 2026 draft.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good draft, it wouldn't be crazy to think that if they land second best college pitcher in the class could be around pick eight, you know, that whoever that is right now there's multiple cases for who that could be, it could be second or third best college
[SPEAKER_01]: or a high school shortstop, it's a good high school shortstop class, you know, if it's a Jacob Lumbart type or whatever, there's a lot of cameras where that player could very logically be someone who is going to be a top hundred prospect and could move to number one on this list right away.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, that system that's in a pretty good spot right now I just feel like.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the A's love their SECAC college bat.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you mentioned Drupers, Derek Kereels right there.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he's eighth in our draft rankings right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think those would be two very interesting targets.
[SPEAKER_00]: The one point I would make on Call of May as it relates to this conversation.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that folks listening to this have every right to be skeptical.
[SPEAKER_00]: of big money, A's, international signings.
[SPEAKER_00]: It has not worked out in recent years.
[SPEAKER_00]: All that to be said, I think Collimez report and even, you know, I've been doing the A's system for us for a handful of years now and we don't spend, or I don't spend as much time on guys that haven't signed yet as we two guys who are currently in the system.
[SPEAKER_00]: But this is the first year I can remember that I had people bringing him up unprompted as is to say, you know, Collimez coming.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're really interested.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a little bit more ground swell with him than at least we're used to with some of their other high profile IFA signing.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think he's a fascinating guy as it relates to this conversation.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think you're right.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that that eighth overall pick, that's a good one as far as someone.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they stick to what they've done in the past, not only could that be someone who ranks number one, but that very well could be someone who doesn't spend too much time in the system.
[SPEAKER_01]: Speaking of that, so this organization, again, we just talked about that, this organization has produced multiple regulars.
[SPEAKER_01]: over half of their lineup is homegrown still in their, in their first contract, not hitting for agency yet, contract player, your position players.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, they've done a better job of producing hitters in recent years.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think as we noted, that 2012 draft is pretty much the best draft, one of the best drafts that any team has done in the 21st century.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't wanna make it sound like they've just done this for the first time now, that's not that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But when you look at this organization and say, what are they good at developing?
[SPEAKER_01]: What are they good at developing in your mind?
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think it's, I mean, it is hitting outside of Daniel C-SAC.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, so it's back up for a minute.
[SPEAKER_00]: The A's feel this more than most teams where missing on a first round pick is, it can really hurt you.
[SPEAKER_00]: It can set you back.
[SPEAKER_00]: Recently, they have not really missed outside of C-SAC.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you mentioned Kurt Wilson, Sawterstrom,
[SPEAKER_00]: But they've also done a pretty good job at targeting hitters that have some risk in the second or third or fourth round and getting the most out of them.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like large Butler is a huge success story.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that they were incredibly patient with Denzel Clark and all of Denzel Clark's
[SPEAKER_00]: contact issues in the miners that he hasn't fully answered yet even in the majors, but he doesn't have to hit that much to be very useful player to you, based off what we saw defensively.
[SPEAKER_00]: You mentioned Colby Thomas.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a similar similar guy who I think and maybe some other teams that didn't have such a log jam at Alfield or DH might have a longer leash at a roll here.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that they
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't scare off from guys with perceived wards and they do a good job helping guys get better even in areas that they're already good at.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think you're right on the money.
[SPEAKER_00]: They were with some of the hitting.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that is kind of the wrapping up for the video portion of the deep dive.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you're on the podcast feed, stick around.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're not on the podcast feed, you want to hear more just head over the podcast feed, a baseball America.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we are going to
[SPEAKER_01]: So Mark, we've covered kind of in the top 10, but I do want to give you the chance to kind of talk about some of your favorite guys outside of the top 10.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've basically now have rankings for 40 prospects for each organization, up at Baseball America.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot more guys that you can kind of dive into, but who are kind of a couple of your, you know, the guys who intrigue you who go beyond the 10.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so let's stick with pitching.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's really it's how many of these guys can they get to the majors as quickly as possible to help impact the season and I think we touched a little bit on the the debris trade in the open of the podcast.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's remarkable that.
[SPEAKER_00]: they were able to acquire Leo DeVree for Mason Miller, for a reliever, and the first boys.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that they also added on three pictures who could help this team by the end of the season.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is a really good job by the A's.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the first guy I wanted to touch on is Henry Bayez.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there was some concern at the end of the season.
[SPEAKER_00]: He had a forum injury that cut his season short.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I believe he's healthy and expected to be part of spring training this year
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's a really interesting guy who's in this, just outside the top 10, he's in the same grouping with the Cade Morris who could help this team Gunnar Hoggling's there.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think Bias's velocity is Sinker was up to 98.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a slider that we have that's pretty solidly average.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a really interesting guy to me who if he can beat back some of the injury concerns.
[SPEAKER_00]: He goes out and he posts and he can say it's starting roll just churning out ground balls.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he could help this team sooner rather than later.
[SPEAKER_00]: Two other pitchers that I really like were a little bit lower down in the teens of 17th and 18th.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not yet ready to quit Steven Etch of Raria.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know last year he was a breakout pick and it didn't quite come together.
[SPEAKER_00]: But when you look at just the athleticism, the body, the VLO, he's up, it's up and to almost touch 100, his sliders really good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that the A's by the end of last season arrived at a point where for all the fastball velocity,
[SPEAKER_00]: It's metricly, it's not the best pitch, and I think that they have worked with him to pick his spots fastball usage a little bit smarter than he was in the past and be able to lean on his ability to spend his breaking ball.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that he's always been young for a level.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that this year could be a big year for him.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then Zain Taylor, drafted him last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a polished college five pitch mix.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he needs too much time in the minors.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that his ceiling is as high as the guys that we've talked about previous to this.
[SPEAKER_00]: But they felt good enough about him to throw him out in an emergency to start in AAA at the end of the season for two winnings.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in that start, it was electric from everything that we've heard he continued on into instructs in the off season.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's added velocity, which I think is really helped him.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was one of the best strike throwers in college baseball last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a really high floor.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that he's another guy who there's a ton of guys who could do this.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if he throws strikes, he'll move quick.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, there's so many arms in the system right now, especially when you get into that 11 to 30 range.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of our other topic we want to talk about here.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is that it does feel like there are times, again,
[SPEAKER_01]: you are not trying to build in your farm system, a perfect, or a lineup, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Like that's one thing that often is understandably kind of gets lost is you don't need to have the best catching prospect and the best first base prospect second base shortstop third base.
[SPEAKER_01]: Some cases that would make a whole lot of sense because if the A's had a great first base prospect right now, probably not gonna find a way under the field because they've gotten a curse.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what you do want ideally is, you know, you have waves of talent that hopefully arrive around the same time where so you don't, you don't have like the guys coming in just as the other guys, you know, we're leaving and free to see or whatever, but also you want to kind of have things match up where.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you have a pretty set lineup, do you have the pitching now to help that you can kind of rely on it's going to be inexpensive that's going to be talented is going to develop and all that or vice versa.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we just laid out say he's lineup doesn't they could use a third baseman or a second baseman or maybe one of both down the road, they could probably use one more outfielder, you know, because they've got some guys were a little older.
[SPEAKER_01]: The position player was.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're good at catcher.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're good at first base.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're good in, you know, so again, solder stream kind of gives you a first left field or who can also play first base if you needed.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's an injury.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've just talked about Denza Clark.
[SPEAKER_01]: How good he is in the outfield defensively.
[SPEAKER_01]: You've got Butler.
[SPEAKER_01]: You've got Wilson.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, there's got a lot of position players.
[SPEAKER_01]: It feels like that this is an imbalance system farm system wise, but probably in a way that fits what the A's may be needing in 2026, 2027 and maybe even 2028.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we touched on it earlier with the ballpark with their historically just unwillingness to, or John Fisher's unwillingness to spend a lot of money or any money of free agency.
[SPEAKER_00]: It puts even more pressure on developing home ground pitchers.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that we've seen outside of Louis Severino, which was a struggle last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: They haven't been able to bring in a ton of external pitching that you feel comfortable with in the long run.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, Aaron Savali is a stop gap, but I think that their actions are telling you that they feel pretty good about the depth in what is coming.
[SPEAKER_00]: So to answer your question, yeah, I think this is a good thing for them.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that this sets up and we'll help Supplement the roster in a way which will make them more whole.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just again.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a timeline thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that A best case scenario on some of these guys puts them into Contention for a playoff spot this year You know if it takes a little bit longer we'll have this conversation again next year and I would say at that point like the time is now your window is open, but
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, they're close.
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say, Severino's experience last year is not going to help on the free agent market going forward when we talk about how, you know, it's really difficult when you can't actually go into the clubhouse during the game.
[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of that's important to me and you can't do that here because I can't just go walking through the, you know, the outfield to go to the gates.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, yeah, there are real actual tangible hurdles about playing a major league season in a
[SPEAKER_01]: the reality of it, and it's not going to help though.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not going to help going forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: And also, just feel like that park plays pretty offensive.
[SPEAKER_01]: Although the loss I will say, I don't care what how the ballpark is situated, what the dimensions are, anything.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen the PCL.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen Las Vegas, you know, AAA baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: I promise you that that ballpark in when it does get built is not going to be a pitcher's paradise.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel very comfortable saying they're not going to move in the walls, you know, I think they have elsewhere, you know, I feel like that there's just no way, again, that when you get to those kind of, you know, that that situation, that kind of altitude, that kind of conditions, you're, you're, you're going to see, you're going to see the ball fly pretty well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's just kind of a part of it.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is something where for all of the understandably kind of the horrific years, it's been to be an A's fan in recent years, obviously, you know, if you're an Oakland A's fan, I can't even imagine what that experience has been like in recent years.
[SPEAKER_01]: The front office staff, the players, the coaches and all that, all they can do is try to be the best team they can be.
[SPEAKER_01]: And okay, we're starting to see kind of the last year was the first time that you kind of saw those green shoots of something else kind of springing up here, like you saw 76 wins.
[SPEAKER_01]: to the credit of this team.
[SPEAKER_01]: 76 wins this year, I feel like would be a very, very disappointing outcome.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, it was a step forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I would say that I would say that to how you laid it out, like this should be a 500 team.
[SPEAKER_01]: If it's not a 500 team, that would be a disappointment in a feeling.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think if you're looking for optimism, it's always been cyclical with the ace.
[SPEAKER_00]: They've always had periods of contention, and then they've had to tear it down and try it again.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you mentioned as fans, they're quite familiar with that, but the upshot there is that a lot of the people who have done it successfully in the past are still there, still in that front office are still in player development.
[SPEAKER_00]: They've done it before.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're starting to do it again.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that this team is really interesting.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, we've touched a ton on the hitters, but.
[SPEAKER_00]: What Marales and Perkins showed, what they were able to do with Jacob Lopez last year, the success that he had, clearly, I didn't see that coming, made stuff where we had him ranked, but he missed the ton of bats and Alex like he might be in their rotation to start the season, like they're starting to do,
[SPEAKER_00]: some interesting things on the pitching side.
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, I think that there I wouldn't write it in Sharpie playoffs, but as far as when you look at when our MOB power rankings come out and I expect they're going to be somewhere between 18th, 20th, 21st, you get into that range.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's there's some ceiling here with the steam.
[SPEAKER_00]: I thank you for everything breaks, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: that is our deep dive look at the athletics.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't even put a thing on front of the team that is currently playing in Sacramento, eventually playing Las Vegas, and previously played in Oakland athletics.
[SPEAKER_01]: And thank you, Mark, for the time.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for the download, anyone who, you know, by the way, thank you all so for our subscribers, obviously, as we always like to say, because that's what allows us to do what we're doing.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you like this one, we have we are we are getting there.
[SPEAKER_01]: We are we are more than two thirds of the way through, I believe now,
[SPEAKER_01]: rolling out our deep dyes of each and every organization.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to have all 30 of these done pretty much right around the time that you see the start of spring training games.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're getting there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're about two weeks away from kind of being able to kind of put a bow on this project and we do appreciate all the
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, all the views, all the downloads that we're getting on this.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you enjoy this, do go over the baseball America.com.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's so much more over there, including if you just said, you don't have just have the A's one through 30 prospects.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not just ranked, but ranked with full reports, tools, grades, all that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we also wrap another 10 31 through 40 and we did that for all 30 organizations as well as well as all of the college coverage.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the division one season is back.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now we roll into spring training and much more fantasy coverage, collectibles, everything over at baseballamerica.com.
[SPEAKER_01]: For March, you're really, I am Jay Jay Cooper.
[SPEAKER_01]: So long, everybody.