WEBVTT

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[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.

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[SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.

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[SPEAKER_02]: What's up everyone?

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[SPEAKER_02]: This is episode 439.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you for joining me.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm your host Eric Cross, so you can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB and the show is at toolshed pod continuing the starting picture position in this one already the prospects last episode and now we're going to the dynasty side of things, which is actually really exciting right now.

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[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of fun pictures, so a lot of fun young pictures in this game right now.

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[SPEAKER_02]: got a great guess with me to break it down.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He was in this, well, a few episodes ago doing another dynasty position.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Now he's doing some pictures with me.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He is Owen Hurd at Owen Underscore FBB on Twitter.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He is an analyst and podcaster for scout, a stat line.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Owen Hurd is going

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[SPEAKER_01]: I'm doing great.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks again for having me.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Always pleasure to be back on the show and got a fun position today as you mentioned in Dynastee starting pitchers and you know, got got got the kind of elites and then you know some fun ones thrown in there and feel like we've got some good contrast between our ranks which makes for some good discussion.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, absolutely, and I feel like the top of the rankings are pretty chalk, but then as we were kind of talking about before we hit record, you get into a range in the teens and 20s, especially where you can really go a few different ways.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's like a big glob almost, and the matter of how much you value the old guys, how much you value the young guys, all of these has to have question marks and some capacity.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So it's a good.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Mix of players here, but let's hop right into it here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I will start with our top 10 each So oh, who do you are your top 10 dynasty starting pitchers right now?

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[SPEAKER_01]: So number one, I have Paul skins and then two through five.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I have Kyrgyz school ball Garrett crochet Yoshinobu Yamamoto and then Hunter Brown and then six through ten.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I have Christopher Sanchez Logan Gilbert Hunter Green Brian Wu and your Perez to round out the top 10

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[SPEAKER_02]: All right, I think I have the same 10, but just slightly different order here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I also start out with skeen, scooble, crochet, and you have a motos to top four.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I feel that that's pretty chalk for the most part for one through four.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I have Brian Wufa.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I've a lowing Gilbert six, Christopher Sanchez seven, Hunter Brown eight, Yuri Perez nine, and Cole Reagan's at 10 there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So, a really exciting top of the ranks here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, let's start with Paul Skeens though.

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, he is, I mean, I feel like he's still getting better.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you already hear reports that, oh, he's adding was a slower sweeper.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He already has like seven pitches that are all really good.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And he's still adding pitches.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's almost

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, start off your career two straight years with a sub two ERA, you know, last, you know, two straight years with a whip under one as well, a K rate last year, 29 and a half percent walk right under six percent, you know, just it leads across the board like no red flags whatsoever, not even anything that even.

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[SPEAKER_02]: hints at a red flag like this.

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[SPEAKER_02]: There's no concerns in the profile.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Everything is really good.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He gets ground balls.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't walk hitters.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He misses a ton of bats.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Limits hard contact.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, everything he checks off every box for number one pitcher in the game and then some.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And obviously, so does Terek Schoubel.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But Schoubel is how many years older.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, about five and a half years older.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think that's why, you know, and maybe in redraw, if you go school one, but for dynasty, given that five and a half year age gap, you gotta go with Paul schemes, but you know, oh, and it's just kind of talk about how good schemes is.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Here for a minute, I mean, everyone knows it, but I mean, to get this good and be like the number one, already through two years, especially at the pitching position, which usually has a lot of good veterans at the top.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That's just pretty remarkable what schemes

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think even with kind of college arms, you're still looking at guys that are going to be kind of a year, year and a half, maybe even two years before they're even at the pro level, much less contributing at the level that he has done.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think for a lot of people that follow me, they know that I don't like building around pitchers, especially with round one, but I think like Paul Skeens is someone who's, you know, force me to kind of make an exception to that rule.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think you can argue that

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[SPEAKER_01]: you know, he's a foundational dynasty asset.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think like top 15 floor.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think you could even argue he's a top 10 overall dynasty asset right now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, it feels just almost absurd to say, but I think like we could be looking at a guy who has like an ERA around 2.5 with 200 plus keys for the next five years, which just, you know, I think when even when you look at Terriq's Google's back to back side, I think that really puts him in kind of a tear of his own and then, you know, the floor just ate it by, you know, as you mentioned the pitch mix and just, you know,

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[SPEAKER_01]: his frame he's shown he can handle innings and I love how you know it's such a low effort delivery unlike some of those kind of high effort heavy arm action that you see and kind of are some of the other arms that we have top 10 and it's just I think it's just a in my opinion like you know close to unmatched combination of upside and floor.

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[SPEAKER_02]: yeah it looks so easy with him like he's just throwing you know hundred mile an hour darts you know sinkers and sweepers and splinters it's like everything looks so easy for him and he's still only twenty three years old

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[SPEAKER_02]: two years ago, he was still pitching at LSU.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he was only in the minor leagues for, you know, ten seconds or something like that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It was just remarkable.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I just hope that Pittsburgh and Bill are around him, so you can get some run support, get some wins.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I know it's hard to predict those, but they are a stat category for mostly still.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's just in saying how good he is such a young age and like said you can't find any faults and like on he's adding another pitch he already had seven last year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Four seam sweeper splitter change up sinker slider and curveball and I was adding another variation of the sweeper apparently so.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I did just remarkable, and then, you know, school, obviously, you know, back to back side on the ward.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's very deserving.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The number two, but let's go down a little bit here to guys that are kind of like in the middle part of the top 10.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Two guys that, you know, we're, you know,

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[SPEAKER_02]: thought of highly before this year, but it kind of, or last year, I should say, but took that next step to join kind of like the ace discussion here.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Let's Brian Wu with the Seattle Mariners and Christopher Sanchez with the Philadelphia Phillies, the latter of which I had a lot of shares of last year, both we drive and dynasty.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Not so much Wu, but I had a lot of Sanchez here, so I was very, very happy.

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[SPEAKER_02]: with Sanchez, but let's start with Brian Wu.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, this is actually the second straight year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: The last year he had a year right under two, assuming under three, but the big kind of improvement, which kind of vaulted him up to the elite top 10 range.

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[SPEAKER_02]: was a pretty notable jump in strikeout rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That was kind of the reason why I was kind of holding him back more.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He was probably more like the SP-2025 range going in the last year from the most part, but K rate jump from 21 and a half to 27 percent kept the lock rate still over.

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[SPEAKER_02]: very low.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Again, we'll have any array under three and a whip under one.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So we're talking elite ratios.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Now he's got an, you know, above average striker to go with it.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And maybe he's never got to get to that top tier one.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But I think this is a guy that you can pretty much pencil into tier two right now.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So are you believing in Brian Wu being here to stay as a top 10 armament?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I think he's kind of firmly and as you mentioned that tier two discussion, I think when I see like a combination of the elite fastball that he has and then you kind of pair that with elite command and the K rate taking a sizable jump.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's a very fun profile for fantasy.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The the whip is going to be good.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The ratios are going to be good plays on a good team in the Mariners who should have some better run support behind them this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So excited for that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we see a little bit a little bit of a jump in there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The health is kind of what keeps them a little bit lower for me.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Also to I feel like we talk a lot about his fast ball, but his two least use pitches is slider to sweeper also very, very good.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I'd like to see a bit more of that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The slider opponents hit just 192 against that with a 36.1 with rate.

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[SPEAKER_01]: and the sweeper 186 against with a 46.3 wiff rate.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think if we see a little bit more death of the arsenal this year, that would push a little higher for me.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then another kind of healthy year, kind of we've seen a fair share of injury concerns with him over the past few years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that would push him up to that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe kind of more borderline tier one than kind of firmly tier two.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I'm definitely on board with that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And I think you saw him go to the secondary is a little bit more last year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And he's been the slider and sweeper with having pretty good with rates, but he was still over 70% combined between the foreseamer and the sinker, but hey, that foreseamer really freaking good.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Well, 53 batting average against 95 of his strikeouts came on that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So,

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[SPEAKER_02]: just under half of his strikeouts were on that foreseem rim, but yeah, as long as the arm can stay, you know, healthy, and as always a big F, any picture, even the guys that we deem safe, we are quote unquote safe, but he did have those arm issues going in the last year, I'll keep mentioned so that is a slight concern, but yeah, just if you can keep that carate up there and that 20, at least 25 plus percent range, it's being above average carate with brilliant ratios, that he can kind of,

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[SPEAKER_02]: going to stick as a top 10 guy.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Sanchez, I'm all wait on Sanchez as well.

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[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of shares as I mentioned, this guy had a 250 ERA last year, 202 innings, 212 strikeouts, 106 whip and kind of similarly to woo, had a pretty decent jump in strikeout last year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Well, it's still keeping the walk rate really low.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He had a five and a half percent walk rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He's been below 6% each of the last three years, but the care it jumped from to right around 20% to right around 26% and he didn't really have any pitch change and he's been basically a sinker, a change up slider through the entire Davis career, but change up with rate went from 35% to 45% and it gets a lot of ground balls, nearly a 60% ground ball rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: keep small in the park limits hard contact limits the walks now he's striking out more guys I mean he he feels pretty safe you know for a guy that's always given you good ERAs but then took it to the next level last year with those strikeouts so and the same question you know as we I asked you with

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[SPEAKER_02]: Woo, are you believing in Sanchez now as a top 10 arm to stay moving forward?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, probably a bit more in Sanchez than I am with Woo and I'm going to contradict myself a little bit here because Sanchez is also, as you mentioned, a sinker change up for lion guy over 80% the time on those two pitches.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But just with those two pitches, his 37 pitching run value ranked fourth.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The sinker was the best in the league in that regard, it's change up second to scoop all.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's interesting because we associated them more with maybe a frummer valdez type before last season, like maybe a mid to upper threes ERA guy is going to keep the ball on the ground, maybe give you some ratios.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But if you look at his, if you compare him to valdez, that they're at the same point in age, like Sanchez is trajectory, in my opinion, is a lot more promising.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This swing strike rate jumps to an apercent.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The

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[SPEAKER_01]: the college swing strike rate up almost 4% and he also reduced his contact both in the zone and overall so I do think that there's more sustainability in this profile than some people may think of a two-pitch guy but I do think we could see a bit of volatility in the in the strike out rate if he kind of continues to be this kind of two-pitch guy

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's definitely fair.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I've always been a really big Sanchez guy.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it him staying in this kind of range.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Really, hinders on that straight gut rate staying up there.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that change up really good.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Even the slider has been above a 30% with rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think if you can keep the change up above 40% with rates, which I think he definitely has the profile for it.

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[SPEAKER_02]: That the movement profile and that change up is really good.

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[SPEAKER_02]: it gets a lot of depth a lot of fade on that.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think I'm a believer and maybe he won't be anything higher than 26% like I don't think he's obviously going to be like 28.29.

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[SPEAKER_02]: 30% but kind of similar what I said about woo, if you can keep it at 25% we'll give you the elite ratios.

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[SPEAKER_02]: They can stick maybe it might be just outside the top 10 or just inside the top 10 like that 7 to 12 or 13 range.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But right behind him, though, there are some elite young names charging harm.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think he'll need to keep that key right up.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But I do think there's a better chance that he does.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe slide down if you spots, then go up, just given all the names we have, rip a low hem that are very young and very, very electric.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And one of those guys is Yuri Perez.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Who, you know, we both have him talk, yeah, you have him 10.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I have him 9.

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[SPEAKER_02]: of him top 10 and then that's just is a testament to the elite arm talent of a Yary Perez and you know obviously missed all of 2024 due to injury after the you know really exciting 2023 rookie year when he had a 315 ERA 113 whip 108k is in just 91 and a third innings

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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, he had a 20.6k when it's Walker as a rookie, that's really good and last year even on the ERA was 425.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you could tell he was, you know, he was shaken off the Ross.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He was kind of getting his feet back underneath them and once he did, he ended the season much, you know, stronger, actually had a lower X ERA last year than he did in his rookie year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: We'll still have a K-minus BB rate nearly 20%.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, this guy, they look at the whiff rates on your press.

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[SPEAKER_02]: It's just insane.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Because rookie area, three pitches above a 45% whiff rate last year, only two, oh no.

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[SPEAKER_02]: But the third pitch, the slider was 39.5% whiff rate.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So still a lot of swing and miss in the profile.

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[SPEAKER_02]: He has the fastball in the upper 90s.

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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, a lot of exciting things here, they're very press.

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[SPEAKER_02]: So, oh, and do you think this is the year when, you know,

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[SPEAKER_02]: Perez goes from having that top 10 potential to being a guy that's cementing himself in tier 2 or maybe even tier 1.

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[SPEAKER_02]: If anybody were to join that top tier, I think it would be very Perez.

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[SPEAKER_02]: What do you think?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I think a bit of my hesitancy, I would say tier two is very possible for him, uh, that of my hesitancy on getting him all the way up into tier one is just the innings.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We haven't seen a pitch 100 or professional season, um, but I do think like, and it's almost wild that I think I can call him a little bit of a buy right now, because it feels like there's some fatigue around Yuri Perez a little bit like, yeah.

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[SPEAKER_01]: think there is a chance that you in a dynasty league you're going to have a contender who maybe doesn't foresee him kind of making that leap but I think like of you know any non top five arm on my ranks like I think he has the best chance of anybody to of SP1 upside.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if that comes in 2026 but

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[SPEAKER_01]: the 118 plus the 118 stuff plus and 19.0K to base kiddo walk ratio is really great to see.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Among his five primary pitches opposing hitters hit just better than 205 on one of them.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So when you combine like bat missing stuff with, you know, also batter struggling to be a contact his age.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's really encouraging for his long-term outlook, and I think just the death and feel for his pitch mix is just rare to see.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think you could argue that like maybe the breaking balls could be a bit more consistent, but I think it's just, you know, I do think like he has very special polish for a 22 year old arm who will be 23 for the entirety of this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: still younger than some double-eye and triple-eye pictures, but yeah, I'm a little hesitant to kind of throw them into that kind of top 10 for redraft yet.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think a lot of my ranking of him is just more what I do believe his long-term upside is, but I do think like on conservatively we could see a top 20 fantasy SPCs in from him in 2026, even if he's a, you know, 130, 140,

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's definitely fair and it's a good proper good point too, but how how young he still is like in fact he's still on you know to this day right now he's 22 years old he's already had a good rookie season injury you know missed injury season and then a comeback season already and he's still not even 23 years old.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's just it's just crazy if it feels like he should be a 25 26 now, but he still could have you mentioned 23 for this upcoming 20 26 season.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, if there's anybody like there's three names, I look at like all right, who could make that jump until like maybe pushing top five, you know, Dynasty SP tier To or even like a top five redraft pitcher for next year, you know, hoping we have a season next year fingers crossed, but like the three names I jumped to immediately one being Yuri Perez and the other two, which I talked about a lot in the pitching prospect version of this, you know, position

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[SPEAKER_02]: or the two rookies from last year.

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[SPEAKER_02]: No one McLean and Chase Burns.

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[SPEAKER_02]: And we won't get super deep into those two guys because I already did last episode, but I'll just ask you kind of real quickly here.

17:55.989 --> 18:03.639
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, and like out of those three, out of Yuri Burns and McLean, like kind of put on your future goggles here.

18:04.039 --> 18:06.362
[SPEAKER_02]: Who's ranked higher one year from today do you think?

18:07.810 --> 18:15.717
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to say, Yuri, and I don't say that too lightly because I do think it's an interesting debate between him and Burns.

18:15.917 --> 18:18.359
[SPEAKER_01]: I have them just a few spots apart.

18:18.420 --> 18:19.300
[SPEAKER_01]: My dynasty ranks.

18:19.420 --> 18:37.817
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you could argue that Burns is stuff is even better, but I think both like the kind of what we've seen from Yuri just how what coming up at 19 years old, I don't think I think people perceive him as a lot more of a finished product that he is.

18:37.797 --> 18:42.645
[SPEAKER_01]: I would lean yuri, but I really could flip a coin either way.

18:44.328 --> 18:57.171
[SPEAKER_01]: One more thought on yuri too, I think like he's an interesting case because it's one of those cases where as a dynasty manager if you're contending, obviously, that sometimes you have to sacrifice longer term pieces to kind of fit your more current timeline.

18:57.191 --> 18:58.573
[SPEAKER_01]: You can't kind of keep

18:58.553 --> 19:03.621
[SPEAKER_01]: All of those young guys that are kind of less 2026 contribute here is more a couple of years down the line.

19:03.641 --> 19:07.847
[SPEAKER_01]: You have to be willing to get uncomfortable with those kind of younger, lesser established pieces.

19:07.968 --> 19:18.684
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think Eri Perez would be one of the few kind of young exceptions to that for me as a guy where, yeah, maybe there's maybe the floor is kind of lower than what you could get for him in 2026.

19:18.805 --> 19:22.350
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think his upside is worth banking on regardless of the stage your team.

19:23.461 --> 19:42.094
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's a great point and I also would say you're a read of these three, but I mean, I think Burns has a shot as well if he kind of evolves a bit, you know, adds a legitimate third offering that's more work consistently use than the change it was last year.

19:42.074 --> 19:50.585
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he can dominate with that fastball slider, but I want to see that third offering kind of help him take that next step, and I think Burns could be right there too.

19:50.745 --> 19:57.113
[SPEAKER_02]: And McLean, you know, even though I'd say he's third out of three here, I think he certainly could be a top 10 arm, you know, at this point next year.

19:57.173 --> 20:08.908
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's still, you know, as I mentioned last episode, I mean, he was a full two-way player, excuse me, as recently as 2024, so 2025 was literally the first full year he was pitching,

20:08.888 --> 20:10.490
[SPEAKER_02]: to be where he is now.

20:10.570 --> 20:15.037
[SPEAKER_02]: It's pretty exciting to see what he could do in his second full year of just pitching.

20:15.057 --> 20:18.402
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, a lot of good young talent in this game right now.

20:18.903 --> 20:19.664
[SPEAKER_02]: That is for sure.

20:19.704 --> 20:25.813
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's go to our next set of top 10 or next set of 10 in our rankings here, Owen.

20:26.133 --> 20:28.737
[SPEAKER_02]: Who do you got in your 11 through 20 spots?

20:29.155 --> 20:40.008
[SPEAKER_01]: So 11 through 15, I have Cole Ragan's Logan Web, Chase Burns, Freddie Pearl to Nolan McLean, and then 16 through 20.

20:40.028 --> 20:47.097
[SPEAKER_01]: These are kind of the, you kind of get to the vet's point have shown the kind of one upside, but still kind of had some questions range.

20:47.557 --> 20:53.965
[SPEAKER_01]: I've Dylan sees it 16 followed by Haseousel Zardo, Spencer Strider, George Kirby, and Fromber Valdez.

20:55.058 --> 21:00.259
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, so I also have actually I break as a 10 so I have hunter green at 11

21:01.741 --> 21:14.773
[SPEAKER_02]: Chase Burns, 12, known McLean, 13, Freddie Perral to 14, Logan Webb, 15, 16 through 20, Joe Ryan, George Kirby, Jacob, Mizzie Rout, skews, another guy with elite upside there.

21:15.373 --> 21:29.086
[SPEAKER_02]: Max Fried, 19, and Spencer Schrollenbach at 20, who I did have number 12 a few days ago, and now with the injury, 100% sure where I want to run, rank him, another elbow, which I wasn't concerned about.

21:29.226 --> 21:31.748
[SPEAKER_02]: Now I am concerned about it,

21:31.728 --> 21:36.663
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, and that he was healthy, but apparently not because everyone's hurt all of a sudden.

21:37.265 --> 21:41.919
[SPEAKER_02]: And I can't be opening up, so we'll see how much of the season he missed, but he has to drop down a little bit.

21:42.280 --> 21:44.607
[SPEAKER_02]: But still like him, a good bit overall.

21:44.941 --> 21:49.246
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's start with Cole Reagan's in this section so I had him 10.

21:49.746 --> 21:50.547
[SPEAKER_02]: You had him 11.

21:51.007 --> 21:59.496
[SPEAKER_02]: So pretty safe to say neither one of us are putting much weight on his, you know, four, six, seven ERA and 13 starts last year.

21:59.516 --> 22:03.280
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he was limited, you know, missed, you know, around half of the, his start.

22:03.300 --> 22:09.767
[SPEAKER_02]: So last year only 61 and 2 ther's innings, but really if you just ignore the ERA and look like everything else.

22:09.747 --> 22:19.482
[SPEAKER_02]: It was actually a really good season, and in some ways, better than in previous seasons, yet a career high 38% straight gut rate, which is insane.

22:19.522 --> 22:28.836
[SPEAKER_02]: His XERA was exactly two runs lower at 2.67, yet a 187 XBA career best 7.8% walkerate.

22:29.157 --> 22:34.084
[SPEAKER_02]: So, I was still a lot of cut under the hood if you just look past that,

22:34.064 --> 22:41.699
[SPEAKER_02]: ERA, and he's still 28 years old, you know, coming off, you know, two really good years in 2023 and 2024, before that.

22:42.400 --> 22:51.098
[SPEAKER_02]: So obviously, you know, I think you're chucking that up to, kind of just like a lost season last year, but what do you, what do you think right now of Cole Riggins?

22:51.118 --> 22:53.322
[SPEAKER_02]: Like what do you, what do you, what do you thoughts of him moving forward here, Owen?

22:53.302 --> 22:56.688
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm definitely all in on a Reagan's bounce back in 2026.

22:56.708 --> 23:00.595
[SPEAKER_01]: The fifth and Sierra, both hovered around 2.5.

23:00.615 --> 23:04.722
[SPEAKER_01]: The three primary offerings with an XBA under 200.

23:05.444 --> 23:10.553
[SPEAKER_01]: The K-to-basable rate ranked third, months all MLB pitchers, minimum of 50 innings pitch.

23:10.633 --> 23:12.897
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I think it's just so rare you have a guy who's

23:12.877 --> 23:29.198
[SPEAKER_01]: shown he can give you SP1 innings, but with the strike-out upside that most ninth inning guys don't have, like if you look at his K-rate in those ranks like he trails just Mason Miller, and he's kind of very much ahead of just some of those kind of, you know, what we would consider a late ninth inning guys.

23:29.178 --> 23:30.940
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think that's what makes him really unique.

23:30.980 --> 23:39.129
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously there's some big health questions, but I think in terms of like upside, he's kind of right up there on my ranks.

23:39.249 --> 23:48.780
[SPEAKER_01]: I think like after schemes in school ball, I think you could realistically throw kind of coal riggins into that kind of Garrett Crochet, Yamamoto, Brown, Tier, next year.

23:49.461 --> 23:53.245
[SPEAKER_01]: If we kind of see another kind of 23, 24 seasons from him.

23:54.592 --> 23:55.734
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I agree.

23:55.834 --> 24:00.360
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you can see him be, yeah, push that top five range for sure.

24:00.781 --> 24:08.673
[SPEAKER_02]: If he gives you kind of like the volume he gave you in 24 and you may be even a little bit of that higher K rate that he gave you in 25.

24:08.973 --> 24:10.475
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he already was a high K rate.

24:10.495 --> 24:15.182
[SPEAKER_02]: It was, you know, 28 29 percent in 2023 2024, but

24:16.327 --> 24:26.964
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, if he's, you know, like a well over 30% K-Ray and he's back up over 180 innings, giving you that low 3-ERA, a whip in that 1-1-5 range.

24:26.984 --> 24:28.927
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think that could put him right below.

24:28.947 --> 24:35.116
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I still have him behind yellin' motel and crush A, but he'd be right in that tier, firmly with them.

24:35.136 --> 24:40.364
[SPEAKER_02]: And again, he's still only 28 years old, you know, that's a pretty good, you know, rotation that got getting into the city this year.

24:40.545 --> 24:42.688
[SPEAKER_02]: If they can honestly help, that's a pretty damn good.

24:43.040 --> 24:44.925
[SPEAKER_02]: rotation with Reagan's leading away.

24:45.045 --> 24:58.602
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I'm definitely all in on a nice little bounce back here from Cole Reagan's and he still feel even though he's coming off the, you know, missing what 19 or 20 starts last year, he still feels fairly safe.

24:59.408 --> 25:07.078
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, as safe as you really could feel about a pitcher, especially an ace pitcher, but yeah, really good stuff from, well, go ahead.

25:07.278 --> 25:11.664
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I know, I was going to say too, just on the, you know, the point that you made that he's like safe to an extent.

25:11.704 --> 25:17.412
[SPEAKER_01]: I think when you kind of look at his ADP range of pitchers, like you have, you have Hunter Green in that range.

25:17.432 --> 25:20.556
[SPEAKER_01]: You have Jacob DeGrom in that range.

25:20.536 --> 25:24.521
[SPEAKER_01]: Chris Sale could maybe push that range in that kind of 40 50 range.

25:24.541 --> 25:31.991
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of these guys where it's like, you know, they have number one upside, but I think, you know, that's kind of where you get to the kind of risk reward type.

25:32.031 --> 25:49.834
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a few kind of in that tier.

25:49.814 --> 25:55.881
[SPEAKER_01]: really good values on haters the first few rounds I would take one of these guys is a low and one with the upside to be kind of firmly an SD1 territory.

25:57.483 --> 25:59.145
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's fair for sure.

25:59.826 --> 26:07.074
[SPEAKER_02]: But this next guy, I'm not really sure where I want to rank him and I'm sure I'm at a loan in that thought process either.

26:07.775 --> 26:13.662
[SPEAKER_02]: Spencer, Strider, 27 years old, Elena Braves, obviously coming off,

26:13.642 --> 26:34.266
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not a bad season, but I'd say underwhelming is a fair word to use for his 2025 season 7 and 14 with a 445 ERA 1.40 whip so head over a K per ending 131 K's and 125 and a third ending but his 24.3% K rate.

26:34.533 --> 26:59.106
[SPEAKER_02]: a far cry from where he was 22 23 when he was 36.8% and 38.3% you know he was at that time considered a top five dynasty arm and he missed all but two starts of 2024 you know with surgery and then you know missed a little bit of time to start last year and just wasn't the same so

26:59.086 --> 27:08.303
[SPEAKER_02]: It's kind of an interesting case here, Owen, where we've seen Strider be elites and obviously we know he's coming off of major surgery.

27:09.093 --> 27:11.377
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, or he was in 2024 to 2025.

27:11.977 --> 27:19.930
[SPEAKER_02]: So, how do you value him now, just given what we saw last year, the upside we saw in previous years.

27:20.010 --> 27:21.572
[SPEAKER_02]: He's still only 27 years old.

27:21.612 --> 27:24.196
[SPEAKER_02]: He's 32, 33, he's still pretty young.

27:24.998 --> 27:27.021
[SPEAKER_02]: So, I guess, how are you valuing him moving forward?

27:27.041 --> 27:31.067
[SPEAKER_02]: I guess he got you be looking at target right now, or are you letting him be someone else's problem?

27:31.334 --> 27:37.644
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I think he's an interesting buy at the right cost at the right cost being kind of very much key word there.

27:38.505 --> 27:52.988
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not buying Spencer Strider at 2022 or 2023 prices, but like, especially in points leagues, like I do think there's some risk with him just being so kind of two-pitch reliant as he is with his kind of fastball and slider throwing those kind of 85% of the time.

27:52.968 --> 28:01.484
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it leaves a little margin for air that if both those pitches don't bounce back to what they were in those years where we were seeing kind of a sigh on contender and Spencer Strider.

28:01.825 --> 28:06.373
[SPEAKER_01]: You're looking at a guy who, you know, you could see kind of increased questions of like, is this guy going to start long-term?

28:07.335 --> 28:09.579
[SPEAKER_01]: But is the braze that gives me a little bit of comfort?

28:09.640 --> 28:11.483
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think if there's somebody that,

28:11.463 --> 28:28.813
[SPEAKER_01]: is kind of completely out on Spencer Strider or kind of valuing him as maybe a, you know, a top 150 top 125 dynasty asset more than kind of a, you know, back ends, you know, top 100 maybe kind of borderline top 75 as I'd still kind of have them as I'd be interested at the right cost.

28:29.300 --> 28:33.926
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just kind of, it's hard to get super inspired when you kind of look under the hood was really prone to hard contacts.

28:34.106 --> 28:41.476
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, they all rate was 10.6% hard hit rate, 42.7, ground ball rate at 37.5, the average exit below was 91.3.

28:42.858 --> 28:51.789
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you see the stuff kind of take a step back, but we're also looking at a guy who's had kind of two major UCL surgeries now, that gives me a little bit of concern.

28:51.829 --> 28:59.239
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think a part of me is like, if it's not at the right price, I kind of need to see it before I'm kind of more back in on Spencer Strider as a top 10 artist

29:00.265 --> 29:00.686
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.

29:00.906 --> 29:06.175
[SPEAKER_02]: And for me, I think it all kind of boils down to the fastball.

29:06.195 --> 29:08.319
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's not nearly the fastball.

29:08.619 --> 29:10.502
[SPEAKER_02]: It was back when he was at peak.

29:10.582 --> 29:22.122
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, when he was at peak, he was though in, you know, averaging 97, 98, you know, on that fastball, getting more whiffs on that fastball, you know, the shape was, you know, a bit.

29:22.102 --> 29:24.145
[SPEAKER_02]: better back then as well.

29:24.165 --> 29:27.410
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not getting as much IVB as he was back then.

29:27.430 --> 29:38.427
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he was getting like 17 and a half, 18 and a half inches of IVB, but then last year I was only 16 and a half while being about two and a half or three miles an hour less than where he was at peak.

29:38.447 --> 29:39.469
[SPEAKER_02]: He now is more

29:39.449 --> 29:47.462
[SPEAKER_02]: 95 and a half, which is still pretty good velocity, but you can just see that that fastball is not as effective as it once was.

29:47.542 --> 29:52.751
[SPEAKER_02]: And then last year it was a two to 94, about an average against any 472 slug allowed.

29:53.312 --> 29:59.061
[SPEAKER_02]: So it are still really good, still nearly a 50% with rate curve ball, though it's not you.

29:59.041 --> 30:08.950
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of misses bats as well, you know, maybe you see him, you know, I love to see maybe add a another fastball variation, a sinker cutter, something like that, maybe use the curve ball a little bit more.

30:09.391 --> 30:13.254
[SPEAKER_02]: I think at this point, he can't get by with being the dominant to pitch guy anymore.

30:13.715 --> 30:27.968
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, unless the below bounces back to ninety seven ninety eight, it may be, but I think at this point he has to kind of evolve into being more than just that fastball

30:29.180 --> 30:31.783
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe a fastball variation, use the curve ball more.

30:31.823 --> 30:32.745
[SPEAKER_02]: We use the change at more.

30:33.065 --> 30:34.367
[SPEAKER_02]: Become a more complete pitcher.

30:34.387 --> 30:38.592
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think he could stick as like a top 25 guy if kind of those things happen.

30:39.373 --> 30:50.548
[SPEAKER_02]: But we'll see, he hasn't only adapted yet, but we'll see, I'll be intrigued to see what the pitch mix looks like in spring training and early on in the season to see if some of those changes are taking place.

30:50.588 --> 30:58.478
[SPEAKER_02]: Or if he's still the same old, four seam slider, 85, 90% of the time and the occasional sporadic curve ball in change.

30:58.458 --> 30:59.320
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.

30:59.400 --> 31:00.382
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it'll be looking up.

31:00.723 --> 31:01.364
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

31:01.384 --> 31:17.277
[SPEAKER_01]: When you look at like a healthy when you look at like a healthy strider like you look back to like is 22 and 23 years like no he doesn't have kind of the this the secondary offering that Brian will does but I do think like we have seen times where his fastball has been good enough that maybe he can overcome that.

31:17.257 --> 31:23.469
[SPEAKER_01]: One thing I'm interested to see is like he's dropped his arm angle, since his 20, 23 season.

31:23.489 --> 31:27.136
[SPEAKER_01]: It was 48 degrees back then, 42 degrees last season.

31:27.157 --> 31:32.166
[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of wonder if part of that was to put less pressure on his arm as he was kind of recovering from the injury.

31:32.768 --> 31:35.012
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm interested to see to Braves, I was very good.

31:34.992 --> 31:38.259
[SPEAKER_01]: organization when it comes to pitching to all development, if there's some tweaks there.

31:38.359 --> 31:41.887
[SPEAKER_01]: But as you mentioned, I do think the risks are really magnitude.

31:42.167 --> 31:50.264
[SPEAKER_01]: If we see the kind of IVB on the fastball continuum, the trend that it's going, if we don't see it kind of bounce back to the, you know, top of the majors that it was.

31:50.365 --> 31:54.874
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think like I feel more comfortable with strider is like,

31:54.854 --> 32:13.960
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, priced as kind of an SP like a top 25 starter, but I do think on the other hand of that, like the upside is kind of I think you can throw him and you know, if he does bounce back this year, we could be looking at a time a year from now where he's kind of in that same tier as I have like, you know, Hunter Green Brian Wu and Yuri Perez now.

32:15.560 --> 32:34.111
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think fast 40 year I won't be surprised if he's 10, 12 spots higher than he is now or if he is another, you know, so let's say 2026 looks pretty close to 25 versus like our other ratios are Middling the KRA does it's decent but not great.

32:34.632 --> 32:40.622
[SPEAKER_02]: I think maybe you see him more is like, you know, thought of as an SP 35 to 40 range down 15

32:40.602 --> 32:41.605
[SPEAKER_02]: or so spots.

32:41.625 --> 32:51.028
[SPEAKER_02]: So interesting to see what happens this year is that I think you can see a wide range in kind of where he's valued and where he's ranked going into next season.

32:51.048 --> 32:53.775
[SPEAKER_02]: So he'll be he'll be one definitely a fun one to follow here.

32:54.317 --> 32:57.244
[SPEAKER_02]: Earlier in the season to see what goes on with Spencer Strider.

32:57.224 --> 32:59.769
[SPEAKER_02]: a couple other entry names in this range.

32:59.849 --> 33:04.037
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, they're all intriguing, but now we got two big names in new places here.

33:04.498 --> 33:11.632
[SPEAKER_02]: This season, Dylan C's now with the Toronto Blue Jays and Fretty Peralta now with the New York Mets.

33:11.712 --> 33:17.583
[SPEAKER_02]: Two of the better teams in Major League Baseball last season getting better in the rotation.

33:17.683 --> 33:20.228
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, the Mets were one of the best teams in the National League,

33:20.208 --> 33:30.066
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, couldn't get past the Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays almost got past the Dodgers But fellas just shy in the world series, but

33:30.637 --> 33:32.819
[SPEAKER_02]: now they got Dylan sees in that rotation.

33:32.939 --> 33:33.619
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll start with him.

33:34.280 --> 33:40.145
[SPEAKER_02]: He's one that I've always had set a hard time with, just because we see the strike out upside.

33:40.685 --> 33:43.788
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he has 500, should be 500 strikeouts.

33:43.808 --> 33:46.470
[SPEAKER_02]: 200 strikeouts in each of the last five seasons.

33:46.811 --> 33:50.113
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's a guy that gives you elite strikeouts.

33:50.754 --> 33:52.315
[SPEAKER_02]: He gives you pretty good volume.

33:52.335 --> 33:56.679
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been over 165 innings each and last five years, as well.

33:57.259 --> 34:00.542
[SPEAKER_02]: But good luck figuring out what the heck the ratio is.

34:00.522 --> 34:15.448
[SPEAKER_02]: because those bounce so wildly, you know, ERA, last five years, going back from last year, 455, 347, 458, 220, 321, same thing with the whip, 133, 107, 142, 111, 125.

34:15.588 --> 34:26.327
[SPEAKER_02]: So at least you can bank on some good volume, you know, a lot of good strikeouts, you know, he's kind of kept the walk rate fairly in shock, you know, it's a little bit high, but not terrible.

34:26.307 --> 34:31.275
[SPEAKER_02]: just earray and whip or just you just don't know what you're getting from year to year.

34:32.237 --> 34:36.865
[SPEAKER_02]: But obviously you have him ranked pretty highly even higher than I have him.

34:37.346 --> 34:38.347
[SPEAKER_02]: Where did you have him?

34:38.367 --> 34:39.449
[SPEAKER_02]: 16th overall.

34:39.469 --> 34:42.935
[SPEAKER_02]: It's kind of like that almost an ace, but still really good too.

34:43.576 --> 34:46.501
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm assuming you're still pretty high on Dylan's season.

34:46.762 --> 34:48.805
[SPEAKER_02]: So what do you think about him in this new home this year?

34:49.612 --> 34:56.365
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm, I'm really interested in doing season Toronto, both both the XERA and the CIP, we're both a full run lower than is actual.

34:56.946 --> 35:05.402
[SPEAKER_01]: I still think the, the, the strikeouts kind of can throw them into that kind of low end, one argument and pointy leagues, but, you know, as you said with the ratios, like, what are you getting?

35:05.422 --> 35:09.510
[SPEAKER_01]: You're getting a guy who's maybe going to give you a 1.2, 1.3 whip.

35:09.490 --> 35:24.630
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's obviously a detriment, especially as you get more and where you kind of lose points for walks or in catch leagues where you have whip and walks as picture categories, but I'm interested to see Dylan season Toronto like

35:24.610 --> 35:25.972
[SPEAKER_01]: the durability has been really good.

35:26.053 --> 35:27.315
[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff is good.

35:27.355 --> 35:37.733
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like a floor for him is a 3738 ERA guy with close to 200k's and I still feel like that's that's still a really good floor.

35:37.754 --> 35:41.961
[SPEAKER_01]: And I feel like one that I could I could stomach maybe as like

35:41.941 --> 35:55.123
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I prefer him as a high end too, but I do think we can, I do think we can kind of see more of what we saw in kind of like 2024 Dylan sees in Toronto than what we saw last season in his contract here.

35:56.133 --> 36:01.543
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I'll be intrigued to see if any pitch mix changes happen here.

36:01.583 --> 36:06.332
[SPEAKER_02]: That's always what I'm intrigued by when, you know, we'll really any pitcher goes to a new team.

36:06.413 --> 36:14.007
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, all right, you know, sometimes a team would be, all right, hey, we want you to, you know, hey, I think we think you can unlock a little bit more of you go with this pitch more.

36:14.138 --> 36:16.420
[SPEAKER_02]: more of this pitch last, add this pitch.

36:17.281 --> 36:22.425
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's kind of been primarily a two pitch guy for the most part, you know, fastball slider.

36:22.926 --> 36:26.789
[SPEAKER_02]: Being, you know, usually 80 to 85% combined.

36:27.270 --> 36:32.495
[SPEAKER_02]: You should just rate last year, you know, they're both around 41-42%, though it's, you know, a really good slider.

36:32.615 --> 36:35.237
[SPEAKER_02]: It's always had a higher width rate above 40%.

36:35.377 --> 36:44.145
[SPEAKER_02]: Really consistently like 43-44% for the most part, going back several years now.

36:44.125 --> 36:47.070
[SPEAKER_02]: You know 240 in betting average against is not bad.

36:47.471 --> 37:03.079
[SPEAKER_02]: You know solid 26% with right on the foresteam It's just you know everything out to gets hit hard So the next two pitches for him are sinker and knuckle curve those got a batting average against well over 300 on each of them probably while he doesn't use them that often, but I kind of wonder if

37:03.059 --> 37:11.910
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, there's a lot of good splitters in Toronto, you know, maybe Gaussman, the savage teaching by the thought of a splitter or split change or something like that.

37:12.251 --> 37:16.877
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm just kind of intrigued to see what the pitchbix looks like or if it's still, you know, primarily a fastball slider.

37:16.917 --> 37:26.989
[SPEAKER_02]: And even if it is, I mean, again, you know, you're getting strikeouts and you know, you just kind of hope that the ERA is under four and the whips under one, two, five.

37:27.090 --> 37:31.255
[SPEAKER_02]: But he at least has that really good floor of innings and strikeouts.

37:31.315 --> 37:32.897
[SPEAKER_02]: So even if

37:32.877 --> 37:34.900
[SPEAKER_02]: the E-A-Rain with Perluba higher.

37:35.341 --> 37:36.763
[SPEAKER_02]: You stir stir still getting value.

37:37.144 --> 37:40.470
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not like he's gonna all of a sudden not be a good strike at arm.

37:40.570 --> 37:42.192
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that'd be very surprising.

37:42.213 --> 37:45.698
[SPEAKER_02]: If that were to happen, so you have that to fall back on at least.

37:45.718 --> 37:51.548
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you get, hey, if you get a mid three ERA, you're probably gonna talk 15 or so picture this year.

37:51.628 --> 37:58.159
[SPEAKER_02]: So, yeah, I don't have any C shares, but I obviously see the intrigue and a deal in Cs for people.

37:58.679 --> 38:05.167
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, and I think like I think the splitters are a great call out and a pitch that we seem kind of Toronto arms throw really well.

38:05.247 --> 38:19.185
[SPEAKER_01]: I think another interesting thing is too is that we seem kind of a shift in Toronto is pitching philosophy in the past year past 18 months where they are targeted more of these high stuff arms like kind of the the Johnny Kings and the landed marutuses and the minor leagues like the

38:19.368 --> 38:36.689
[SPEAKER_01]: Gage Stanford has been a guy that's kind of really popped in their development, but I'm interested to see this because like if you look at kind of You know, Dylan sees could not be much more of a different picture than kind of the Jose Berryos and the Chris Bassett type Yeah, so I'm interested to see if there's something to to unlock here.

38:36.749 --> 38:43.437
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen we've seen them get some kind of very good years out of Kevin Gosman We've seen them be able to keep their arms durable.

38:43.537 --> 38:49.324
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the teen context will help a bit on the wins

38:49.304 --> 38:50.506
[SPEAKER_01]: contender in the AL.

38:51.568 --> 38:53.492
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think there's some interesting things here.

38:53.512 --> 39:05.254
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously, the lead context definitely matters for me a bit, and might kind of tweak a few things, but I still think C's for me is a is a top 20 dynasty arm and somebody with kind of top 15 upside and Toronto.

39:06.618 --> 39:12.524
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, moving over to another guy that's been, you know, pretty consistent over the years as well.

39:13.104 --> 39:17.389
[SPEAKER_02]: That's pretty pralta, you know, first eight years of his career with the Milwaukee Brewers.

39:17.969 --> 39:20.332
[SPEAKER_02]: He's still only 29 years old.

39:20.352 --> 39:22.854
[SPEAKER_02]: He came up aged 21 back in 2018.

39:23.014 --> 39:29.861
[SPEAKER_02]: He has over 200 strikeouts in each of the last three seasons and also had 195 back in 2021.

39:29.901 --> 39:31.683
[SPEAKER_02]: That was at the first like breakout year for him.

39:32.284 --> 39:35.747
[SPEAKER_02]: And since Danny said two years in the year right under three,

39:35.727 --> 39:45.757
[SPEAKER_02]: 2021 and then last year he had a career best 2.70 ERA 17 wins 214 straightouts in 176 and two-thirds innings.

39:46.398 --> 39:49.261
[SPEAKER_02]: That was a career high in terms of the innings as well.

39:49.801 --> 39:50.782
[SPEAKER_02]: One zero-weight whip.

39:50.903 --> 39:57.369
[SPEAKER_02]: So across the board, you couldn't make a case that that was maybe the best year from Ferti Peralta.

39:57.389 --> 40:03.135
[SPEAKER_02]: It's either that year or that 2021 year when he had 2.81 ERA and even higher.

40:03.115 --> 40:15.808
[SPEAKER_02]: strikeout rate, but kind of feel similar to will deal in season where you know you're going to strike out, you know you're going to get pretty solid volume has been over 165 innings each of the last three years.

40:16.700 --> 40:21.928
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, 176 last year, again, for the most part, you're getting good ratios.

40:22.068 --> 40:27.617
[SPEAKER_02]: So sometimes it's up or two's, the other few years, kind of been like that, 35 to 38 range.

40:28.098 --> 40:30.902
[SPEAKER_02]: But then that's still pretty good when you factor in all the straight guys he's giving you.

40:31.403 --> 40:35.990
[SPEAKER_02]: Now he's going over to New York Metz to head that rotation with a normal McLean.

40:36.010 --> 40:37.552
[SPEAKER_02]: That'd be a pretty fun one too there.

40:38.153 --> 40:42.420
[SPEAKER_02]: So what do you think about Freddie Perlte here, the newest member of the New York Metz here, Owen?

40:42.569 --> 40:44.613
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm really interested in Ferdie Praleton.

40:44.833 --> 40:53.167
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's kind of an interesting case study and how people can kind of get drawn away to kind of surface results being kind of the career norm of a player.

40:53.568 --> 40:54.850
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's kind of been a guy.

40:54.890 --> 40:58.176
[SPEAKER_01]: He's had multiple seasons where he's had kind of a fit just over three.

40:58.978 --> 41:00.961
[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned like the strikeouts are good.

41:01.021 --> 41:01.823
[SPEAKER_01]: He'll give you innings.

41:01.843 --> 41:04.948
[SPEAKER_01]: He's given 165 plus in the past three seasons.

41:04.928 --> 41:10.719
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's a lot of interesting things to work with in the meds development, especially the extension too.

41:10.799 --> 41:16.028
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a quality four-page mix on like C's who's kind of reliant on to.

41:16.048 --> 41:29.012
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Freddie Praltus is we're going to see kind of, I don't think we're seeing like a, you know, a 270 R8 from him again, or whatever, whatever he had in 25, what was that?

41:28.992 --> 41:30.695
[SPEAKER_01]: make sure I'm getting that right.

41:31.616 --> 41:46.602
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, I don't think we're seeing a 270 RA guy from him again, but I do think that, you know, we could see more kind of pretty proud to shift more to that, kind of, you know, 3.3 to 3.5 ERA with a good amount of case that he was as the fit would suggest.

41:46.802 --> 41:50.629
[SPEAKER_01]: Another thing that stuck out to me is like the the home run to fly ball ratio,

41:50.609 --> 41:52.612
[SPEAKER_01]: was down to 10.4 last year.

41:52.653 --> 41:55.798
[SPEAKER_01]: It was kind of 16.0 and 13.1 and 23 to 24.

41:56.119 --> 42:01.929
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think kind of having Lindor and semi in behind him in the middle and field will be great for that.

42:03.071 --> 42:05.074
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, overall really interested in Freddie Pralto.

42:05.214 --> 42:06.677
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's a guy that

42:06.657 --> 42:26.428
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, in certain leagues, I would have no problem with him as a low end one if I kind of followed up with a strong number to this swing strike rate has been consistently good, the chase rate has been good, it's it's just for for me, it's I think he's kind of he's outside of Valdez in that kind of rain in that kind of 15 to 25 range.

42:26.448 --> 42:30.555
[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably one of the more safe starters in that and those don't necessarily ranks for me.

42:32.223 --> 42:37.091
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and these are the guys that I think like the always get, I mean, everyone loves these guys.

42:37.111 --> 42:58.264
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm saying they're undervalued, but I think they are in a sense where it's like, all right, they're not flashy, so maybe you're more people are more drawn to all of the, the Nolan McLean's of the world, the Missier outskis of the world, but, you know, this kind of little tear, and they're all kind of similar and ranking with these guys like Logan Webb, Freddie Perrot, even though

42:59.138 --> 43:04.605
[SPEAKER_02]: into their as well, you know, they're this super steady, you know, a pretty pro talk.

43:04.625 --> 43:09.951
[SPEAKER_02]: You basically know what you're getting with Freddie, like you know what you're getting with web, you know what you're getting with with Max Fiddy, even.

43:09.971 --> 43:18.001
[SPEAKER_02]: And it might might not be, again, it might not be the the flashiest arm, but they're just really good and really reliable, you know, like steady, fruity pro talk.

43:18.021 --> 43:19.543
[SPEAKER_02]: That's what I've been kind of

43:19.523 --> 43:33.506
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, calling him lately is just you know, you're going to get that, you know, if it's maybe it's an ace value, but at worst, it's like mid to upper tier SP2 value, like that's the kind of the floor, you know, you can kind of bank on what would these guys.

43:33.626 --> 43:36.150
[SPEAKER_02]: So these are the guys and frame of all those.

43:36.170 --> 43:38.494
[SPEAKER_02]: You can throw him, he'd be a liberal below these.

43:39.149 --> 43:44.138
[SPEAKER_02]: three, but it's still kind of in that general range as well for me, where you just, you know what you get to get?

43:44.158 --> 43:45.641
[SPEAKER_02]: You don't have to worry about it for the most parts.

43:45.661 --> 43:46.482
[SPEAKER_02]: You don't have to worry about them.

43:46.823 --> 43:50.129
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, they're ratios tanking or anything like that.

43:50.149 --> 43:56.500
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I think if you know, Freddie Pralthe, you know, I would love him as my SP2 right now.

43:56.660 --> 44:02.811
[SPEAKER_02]: If I were to start off my dynasty rotation with like, let's say it's a Brian Weaver or Sanchez or something like that.

44:03.010 --> 44:05.237
[SPEAKER_02]: And I got fruity as my two, I'd be insane.

44:05.277 --> 44:11.718
[SPEAKER_02]: Even if I wanted to wait, build more of a, you know, starting hitting core and kind of wait a little bit.

44:11.798 --> 44:14.687
[SPEAKER_02]: And then I got my ace being in that fruity proalt the tier.

44:15.149 --> 44:16.513
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm fine with that as.

44:16.645 --> 44:34.725
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, so it definitely a rock solid arm there both him and Seas, but you know for a little less variable have variants then with Dylan Seas, but let's move on here to 21 through 30 in our dynasty starting mature rankings.

44:35.105 --> 44:36.308
[SPEAKER_02]: Who do you got in these spots Owen?

44:36.288 --> 44:40.853
[SPEAKER_01]: So 21, I have Bubba Chandler and then followed by 22 to 25.

44:40.873 --> 44:45.298
[SPEAKER_01]: I have Kyle Brattish, Jacob DeGrom, Chris Sale, and Zach Wheeler.

44:45.318 --> 44:53.307
[SPEAKER_01]: Then 26 through 30, I have Mackenzie Gore, Emmett Sheahan, Kim Schlittler, Jacob Mizirowski, and Nicola Dolo to round out by top 30.

44:53.327 --> 44:54.969
[SPEAKER_02]: All right.

44:55.089 --> 44:58.633
[SPEAKER_02]: For me, 21 through 25, I have Traya Savage,

44:59.879 --> 45:04.205
[SPEAKER_02]: Spencer Strider Blake Snell another guy that I know clearly what I want to do with.

45:04.225 --> 45:17.363
[SPEAKER_02]: I never I never like my Blake Snell ranking no matter where I have them I was thinking to the two higher to low Pubalope as and I'm at she had it 25 26 to the 30 Bubba Chandler Kyle Braddish and Dylan Seas.

45:17.763 --> 45:23.271
[SPEAKER_02]: He's his Lizardo and Who do they what what I don't have 30 listed here with him?

45:23.791 --> 45:24.512
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh Michael King there.

45:24.532 --> 45:28.097
[SPEAKER_02]: We go Michael King at 30 and really you want to

45:29.191 --> 45:33.138
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you could probably throw, what do you throw real quick, kind of off-script here?

45:33.539 --> 45:34.601
[SPEAKER_02]: Showhail toning.

45:34.661 --> 45:42.896
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, mostly a two-way guy on most sites, but there are some sites that do have him separately, depending on what platform you play on.

45:43.257 --> 45:47.925
[SPEAKER_02]: Would you have showhail toning in your top 30 for just pitch your only?

45:47.905 --> 46:15.921
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's debatable, but I'm going to lean no, just because looking at some of the other names, I have and kind of my others consider just missed Roquis Sasaki, Ryan Pepioch, Wallenbach, Michael King, Trace, Savage, Tetsuya, Emi, DeName of Fu, so finalizing some things, so kind of might tweak a few things, but I'm just not not sold, I can kind of throw Otani significantly over any of those guys right there when looking at kind of pitcher only, especially with the unknowns in that regard.

46:17.386 --> 46:18.788
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's definitely fair.

46:18.888 --> 46:20.350
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he absolutely could be.

46:21.112 --> 46:22.413
[SPEAKER_02]: We've seen him like what he's in the mountains.

46:22.854 --> 46:26.820
[SPEAKER_02]: I think still a top 15 to 20 arm talent.

46:27.781 --> 46:29.584
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe even, that might be something about the low.

46:30.065 --> 46:37.656
[SPEAKER_02]: I just don't know what you're getting from him for volume and if they baby him, you'll go to six man, which all would be very valid things to do.

46:37.636 --> 46:40.723
[SPEAKER_02]: to give it how much value he brings at the plate as well.

46:40.743 --> 46:43.869
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, hitter, Otania alone is still a top three player.

46:44.290 --> 46:52.869
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to see, so I just crazy, but yeah, the fact that he still could be a top 30-ish arm, which is all you're writing in the bay, and that's just crazy with Otania.

46:52.889 --> 46:55.494
[SPEAKER_02]: But let's go into some of these guys, 21-30.

46:55.555 --> 46:57.619
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's start with.

46:57.599 --> 47:18.863
[SPEAKER_02]: Kyle Brattish, a guy that's probably one of the more hyped names, I think the two most hyped names are now in redraft purposes or even in Dynastie 2, or probably Ben Rice on the heading side and Kyle Brattish on the pitching side, and I was able to see one of his six starts last year against my red socks, and he just absolutely shoved.

47:18.883 --> 47:23.969
[SPEAKER_02]: I think two earned in six endings but had nine strikeouts, looked really, maybe he was 10 strikeouts.

47:23.989 --> 47:26.712
[SPEAKER_02]: I got to look at

47:26.692 --> 47:27.734
[SPEAKER_02]: Game Logs here.

47:29.156 --> 47:35.086
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it was 10 strikeouts, six innings, four hits, two runs, both solo shots, zero walks, 10 case.

47:35.166 --> 47:37.069
[SPEAKER_02]: That was his first start back in late August.

47:37.530 --> 47:46.324
[SPEAKER_02]: Then he finished the year in six starts with a 253 ERA, one zero three whip and 47 strikeouts in just 32 innings.

47:46.925 --> 47:50.691
[SPEAKER_02]: So we look at every year for the last three seasons.

47:50.671 --> 47:52.714
[SPEAKER_02]: Brad is as had an e-ary under three.

47:53.234 --> 47:54.836
[SPEAKER_02]: He said a whip just above one.

47:55.377 --> 48:08.294
[SPEAKER_02]: He said well over a strikeup training each of the last two years, and with the care of being above 30% both the years, 32.5% in 2024 and 37.3% in 2025.

48:08.875 --> 48:12.660
[SPEAKER_02]: The problem is he's going to bind for 14 starts in the last two years.

48:12.720 --> 48:14.903
[SPEAKER_02]: He did have 30 back at 2023, which is good.

48:15.704 --> 48:18.788
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, only 14 can

48:19.088 --> 48:26.240
[SPEAKER_02]: 24 and six last year, but obviously he's looked really good when he's been on the mound, but a hype around him right now.

48:26.401 --> 48:29.847
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, and, you know, is he a guy that you'd be willing to buy high on?

48:29.967 --> 48:32.832
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the price tag is getting pretty lofty at this point.

48:33.032 --> 48:42.328
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think you're getting him for a good, you know, low cost anymore, but it's he a guy that you'd be willing to buy high on and pay the price to get.

48:43.372 --> 48:50.702
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, he was a guy that like, I feel like that kind of window for me was more kind of as he was approaching his return, you've been kind of early on in his return.

48:51.403 --> 49:05.262
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, I think now I mean, I can't say I've inquired about him anywhere or about his price tag anywhere, but I mean, I do think like if on, you know, if there's somebody who's kind of, I recognize him a bit higher on Braderson song, if I have somebody who's

49:05.242 --> 49:10.929
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe valuing him is more of a top 30 to top 40 dynasty starter for me than kind of where I have him right.

49:10.969 --> 49:14.073
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think I'd be willing to at least inquire there, see if there's something to be done.

49:14.995 --> 49:29.173
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, I think if there's somebody that's kind of more looking for like a top 20 top 15 SP value that I'm I'm probably kind of more out at that price and would rather just kind of wait and see, find some other options kind of with that upside at the lower cost.

49:30.402 --> 49:36.369
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think at this point, it's hard to pony up the price tag to get a Kyle Bradshaw.

49:36.389 --> 49:45.819
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I already, I did have, I think one share and dynasty, which I already had from a few years ago, I can't remember when I got him, but you know, it wasn't like I acquired him recently.

49:45.879 --> 49:54.148
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, at this point, I think it's, you have to like, all right, it's be fully in on Bradshaw willing to pay, you know, it's got to be a top.

49:54.128 --> 50:06.295
[SPEAKER_02]: I'd say top 20 to 25 SP price tag and overall for that at least top 100 overall price tag, which I haven't ranked on that range, just I feel that value is only going to go up.

50:06.315 --> 50:09.201
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just if he has a good spring, forget about it.

50:09.181 --> 50:23.093
[SPEAKER_02]: If he goes out there and just absolutely shoves this spring and he's just looking dominant, you know, leading up to the season, like that March mid to late March price tag is going to be like top 15 to 18 SP and like top 60 to 75 and dynasty.

50:23.113 --> 50:24.374
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's only going up.

50:24.394 --> 50:29.118
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you want them, you know, you already missed the window to get him in a reasonable cost.

50:29.519 --> 50:34.683
[SPEAKER_02]: But right now it's still going up that probably going to keep going up until he goes to opening day.

50:34.763 --> 50:38.867
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I mean,

50:38.982 --> 50:40.244
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he does a lot of things.

50:40.304 --> 50:43.589
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, he misses bats, a slider and curveball, both a really good.

50:43.829 --> 50:48.055
[SPEAKER_02]: The sinkers that could offering to get some ground balls, not only so much last year, but in the past he did.

50:48.115 --> 50:49.297
[SPEAKER_02]: So there's a lot of good there.

50:49.317 --> 50:50.979
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just a price tag, this has gotten pretty high.

50:51.420 --> 51:00.613
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I think too like a lot of what you see with guys that kind of, you know, don't have kind of their fastball as their primary pitch is not a good fastball, but that's just not the case with Braddish.

51:00.673 --> 51:03.117
[SPEAKER_01]: Like when his fastball says 30 best pitch,

51:03.097 --> 51:08.165
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's for me what makes me really interested in that it's not a bad pitch at all.

51:08.385 --> 51:13.132
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll be at small sample size in 2025, but the chase rate was a career best.

51:13.272 --> 51:16.737
[SPEAKER_01]: The swing strike rate of 14.6 was significantly a career best.

51:17.358 --> 51:29.256
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, like 32 in sample size, but I do think that there's been kind of, you know, also his ability to kind of bounce back from these kind of longer term injuries and not show any signs of rust has been really encouraging for me.

51:29.236 --> 51:47.516
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think it's a valid question of how many endings you're getting from him, maybe like 15160 is a ceiling, but I do think he's good enough to even with those numbers that he can kind of push that top 15 fancy starting picture range, maybe even kind of get into that closer to top 10.

51:48.477 --> 51:58.247
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I could absolutely see a future where I'm doing this episode next year, and he's right in

51:59.392 --> 52:02.937
[SPEAKER_02]: just talking about, you know, we're pretty proud to as in some of the guys like that.

52:02.977 --> 52:06.261
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, Brad is should be really fun to see if he can just stay healthy this year.

52:06.702 --> 52:10.988
[SPEAKER_02]: Give us, you know, 30 starts and see what the numbers look like.

52:11.028 --> 52:22.564
[SPEAKER_02]: But now let's keep it right in the American League East, go over to the New York Yankees and Cam Schlittler, who was just really, really good as a rookie, including in the postseason as well.

52:22.544 --> 52:42.428
[SPEAKER_02]: in 14 regular season starts with the yanks at a 296 ERA, 122 whip, 27 and a half percent strike at rate and a 10.2 percent walk rates, you know, really big, 6, 6, 6, these are your typical big, strong, you know, got it throws hard.

52:42.448 --> 52:48.535
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the fast bubble lost the last year, 98 on average on the fore seam, 97 and a half.

52:49.595 --> 52:51.900
[SPEAKER_02]: on the sinker in the cutter 92's.

52:52.080 --> 52:55.708
[SPEAKER_02]: Like a lot of things are hard with cam slitler.

52:55.928 --> 53:03.103
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, even though it was a little bit of a heart of curveball around 83, 84, and mixes in in upper 80's sweeper occasionally as well.

53:03.724 --> 53:08.835
[SPEAKER_02]: None of which had a, you know, even at one offering with a super high wiff rate, but he can be,

53:09.119 --> 53:27.043
[SPEAKER_02]: he can miss bass with all of them and roll that foreseamer is as kind of as go to pitch to get straight out's 52 of his 84 straightouts were on that foreseamer and he's starting to get some hype behind him as well just kind of cool to see because he was never in a leaps prospect he was he used a decent pitching.

53:27.732 --> 53:33.499
[SPEAKER_02]: prospect, you know, maybe made some top 100s, but never was like a top 10 pitching processor.

53:33.519 --> 53:35.402
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe not even a top 20 pitching prospect.

53:35.462 --> 53:36.663
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's kind of cool.

53:36.743 --> 53:39.186
[SPEAKER_02]: Even he's a Yankee and I'm a Red Sox fan.

53:39.487 --> 53:46.776
[SPEAKER_02]: Just kind of the see those guys that were never super highly touted, it kind of turned into really exciting, impactful young arms in this game.

53:46.876 --> 53:49.099
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, from what you saw,

53:49.079 --> 53:53.114
[SPEAKER_02]: In his rookie season, Owen, are you buying what you saw from Scytler did?

53:53.135 --> 53:59.258
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you think he's kind of here to stay and can develop into an impact on for vanishing?

53:59.744 --> 54:02.589
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I'm definitely buying.

54:02.950 --> 54:08.902
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think, even as, I'm not sure, maybe depending on who owns him, but I'm just not sure.

54:08.922 --> 54:13.330
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like, people will have him or his perceived value as high as I do.

54:13.811 --> 54:22.107
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think he kind of gets, he can get separated in that kind of Burns McLean Schamler conversation with kind of how are you, how are you ranking the,

54:22.087 --> 54:31.216
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, the kind of up-and-commer, up-and-coming dynasty starting pictures, but as a couple of things you mentioned, it's just a profile I really like, like, really big body picture, really good fastball.

54:31.557 --> 54:48.634
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's some more rooms to kind of build the rest of the arsenal off that, um, would like to see kind of one of those pitches emerge more as a primary with pitch, but I do think there's a kind of realistic world where he's kind of in that kind of, you know,

54:49.238 --> 54:51.060
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm kind of there with you.

54:51.080 --> 54:55.486
[SPEAKER_02]: I have him just outside my top 30 right now.

54:55.506 --> 54:58.710
[SPEAKER_02]: He is 35 for me.

54:59.031 --> 55:01.654
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just a few spots outside of this range that we're talking about.

55:01.714 --> 55:04.638
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, I could easily see him jumping into the 20s.

55:04.918 --> 55:12.408
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he's going to be up in that, you know, parolta, you know, Missierowski, Fried, Granger, I think that.

55:12.528 --> 55:12.748
[SPEAKER_02]: But

55:12.982 --> 55:16.889
[SPEAKER_02]: I do think, you know, SP2, SP3 range, so kind of similar to what you were just saying.

55:17.250 --> 55:27.109
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the upset is there and I saw a few of the starts, and not live, but, you know, just watching, you know, Yankees games, you know, obviously the red sauce plenty Yankees are good betting.

55:27.157 --> 55:52.033
[SPEAKER_02]: just seeing his start somehow as a guy looks the part I mean he's very imposing on the mound he's got the velocity yeah what let's kind of see where the the pitch mix goes if he starts going you know more with the second areas a little bit but yeah he definitely a lot of good traits here with Kim Schlittler so definitely intrigued to see how he does in his first full season in the major leagues here in twenty twenty six last guy in this range will

55:52.165 --> 56:00.959
[SPEAKER_02]: about another guy with pretty wide potential range of outcomes here more than most, you know, could be a top 10 guy next year.

56:01.020 --> 56:06.589
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe he's a guy that just kind of does, you know, he's a super erratic and he's nine and a top 50 guy.

56:06.609 --> 56:13.200
[SPEAKER_02]: They both are possible and we've seen him be both throughout his professional career in the minors and even in the majors last year.

56:13.680 --> 56:15.844
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's Jacob Misiarowski, with the

56:16.178 --> 56:36.145
[SPEAKER_02]: Milwaukee Brewers, you know, big, tall, six, seven writing, you know, a little bit on the on the slender side, you know, listen to that 197 pounds, 23 years old came up, I mean, all start team last year, which I know was, you know, put people up in arms because it was over Christopher Sanchez, but still he was dominant the star that he kind of visited that a little bit.

56:36.125 --> 56:55.483
[SPEAKER_02]: that has some ups and downs as you expect from a rookie arm, but still a pretty good talon 87 k's in 66 innings is a 32% strikeout rate, walk rate was a little high 11% there, 436 ERA, they'll all the ERA indicators are mostly around a run lower.

56:55.463 --> 57:18.990
[SPEAKER_02]: he's a guy that comes at you with those long arms with elite seven and a half feet of extension which just makes that fastball pop right on you he's got the really good secondaries as well slider at 94 miles an hour I think that's faster than they have the league's fastball which is insane change up 92 curveballs 87 he can miss bats with all four

57:18.970 --> 57:22.417
[SPEAKER_02]: But he's also a guy that gives a lot of contact in the air.

57:22.798 --> 57:25.503
[SPEAKER_02]: The walk rate has been known to be a little bit higher at times.

57:26.325 --> 57:30.814
[SPEAKER_02]: So kind of looking at the entire profile, oh, and what do you make of Misiarask?

57:30.955 --> 57:35.123
[SPEAKER_02]: Can he get up to that range we were talking about with like burns and McLean and all of that, you think?

57:35.997 --> 57:54.664
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think on one hand, like if you look at that, that kind of a big three of rookie arms and kind of burns McLean and Chandler, I think like you could argue that Miss Yorowski might have the highest upside of all of them, but I think on the other hands, like you, as you mentioned, the walk rate and the low ground ball rate give you a lot of concern.

57:54.644 --> 58:06.659
[SPEAKER_01]: as just the frame and the delivery, like six, seven, sub 200 pounds, just I do have some concerns over whether we're ever going to see this guy kind of reach the SP1 innings that he needs to kind of hit that upside for fantasy.

58:07.560 --> 58:18.994
[SPEAKER_01]: It's he a guy that I do think the stuff is good enough that where he can make it work even if he's a kind of high walk guy and kind of prone to, you know, heart-part or contact air contacts, the occasional blow up.

58:19.935 --> 58:22.879
[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't, I struggled to really put a prediction out there.

58:22.859 --> 58:43.500
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, because I do think that, you know, you could be looking at a guy who, you know, maybe maybe at some point we're kind of looking at in the, you know, the range of a, you know, top 15, maybe even top 10 dynasty starting pitcher, but on the other hand, like you could have maybe a, um, maybe like kind of a, you know, someone like a Ryan Hellsley type who just becomes an electric flame thrower out of the bullpen.

58:44.560 --> 58:58.384
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the two things with him that I've kind of always looked at and hope that would be okay and not cause him to just lose a ton of value was, you know, the walk rate, which it was coming down last year when he got nearers to his debut.

58:59.647 --> 59:13.189
[SPEAKER_02]: that's been so up and down like it'll look good for you know six weeks then of a 15% walk rate the next six weeks that's been so wild germs of the walk rate and also the staying healthy there's some durability concerns there as well.

59:13.850 --> 59:19.680
[SPEAKER_02]: He's never really had a ton of innings in anyone season so that has to be concerned but

59:19.660 --> 59:41.916
[SPEAKER_02]: We've also seen him be, you know, I think on arm talents, he might be top 10 in baseball in terms of flat out upside, ceiling arm talent, like you see like all the the hard pitches he throws got, you know, could basically sit 100 miles an hour on his foreseamer, which is a really good foreseamer under a 200 betting image against on that.

59:42.296 --> 59:45.381
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll have the three

59:45.361 --> 59:47.886
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he could be a top 15 arm next year.

59:47.926 --> 59:59.030
[SPEAKER_02]: I have him in a few diocese keeper leagues, and I've got some hoping he takes up that next step, but I feel the floor's lower for him than it is with McLean, than it is with Burns.

59:59.531 --> 01:00:05.985
[SPEAKER_02]: Then even Chandler and his average too, I think they have a higher floor, but I do agree that if on upside,

01:00:05.965 --> 01:00:08.148
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think him and Burns are pretty close.

01:00:08.208 --> 01:00:23.972
[SPEAKER_02]: If I was to come looking at those five on upside, I'd go probably slightly burns them, as you're asking, and then McLean, Chandler, and you savage, but yeah, I think he is, the widest variance of those five arms for sure, but absolutely, it'll be fun to see how he fairs this year.

01:00:24.032 --> 01:00:29.560
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's always one of the, he's a must watch pitcher whenever he's on the mound for sure.

01:00:30.215 --> 01:00:36.590
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, let's close out the show with our favorite dynasty by at the starting picture position right now.

01:00:37.011 --> 01:00:41.422
[SPEAKER_02]: And maybe it's something we already talked about, oh, and that you want to dive into more, or something that we haven't even talked to yet.

01:00:41.442 --> 01:00:42.785
[SPEAKER_02]: That's further down your rankings.

01:00:43.286 --> 01:00:47.937
[SPEAKER_02]: Go wherever you want to with it, but who's it got that you're looking to buy right now in 90 C leaks?

01:00:47.917 --> 01:00:51.923
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think one guy for me and you know, I'll acknowledge he isn't the flashiest.

01:00:52.023 --> 01:00:52.884
[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't.

01:00:53.024 --> 01:00:56.049
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I haven't ranked a lot higher than he's being valued right now.

01:00:56.089 --> 01:00:58.252
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's Nicola Delo, 25.

01:00:58.312 --> 01:01:04.460
[SPEAKER_01]: We kind of, you know, relatively under the radar, kind of saw him become into this really strong ratios guy.

01:01:04.480 --> 01:01:13.333
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a K to base of ball ratio of nearly 20% the chase rate was 91% how 32.8, which is really encouraging to see.

01:01:13.313 --> 01:01:36.385
[SPEAKER_01]: There's the ground ball rate, too, was 44.6, a little bit above average there, with rates also the same way 27.5%, but what really stood out to me with Lidolo is just how the horizontal break on its pitches both is significantly better than the league average on three of his four pitches in his

01:01:36.365 --> 01:01:45.442
[SPEAKER_01]: in his fastball curveball and change up, I think to just the shape of those pitches is something that can kind of help him succeed even if he's kind of a mid-90s fastball guy.

01:01:45.462 --> 01:01:59.487
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, so I really like Nicola, I think there's some people that, you know, we'll kind of have him not even as kind of a, you know, a top 50 starting pitcher and I just think he's a lot better than that and I think that we can see a lot more of what we saw in

01:01:59.467 --> 01:02:07.338
[SPEAKER_01]: 25 where, you know, he's a guy that you can kind of draft if you wait more on pitchers as your number two would be perfectly content with it.

01:02:09.120 --> 01:02:10.262
[SPEAKER_02]: I like that pick.

01:02:10.282 --> 01:02:17.211
[SPEAKER_02]: I was a huge little guy a couple years ago, probably higher than most, and obviously it's been, you know, up and down some good some bad less couple years.

01:02:17.291 --> 01:02:23.179
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, I'm so holding a hope that he can kind of, kind of build off last year's success.

01:02:23.700 --> 01:02:26.824
[SPEAKER_02]: It kind of established himself as like that good, you know, top 30 to 40 arm.

01:02:26.804 --> 01:02:27.305
[SPEAKER_02]: for fantasy.

01:02:27.325 --> 01:02:28.246
[SPEAKER_02]: So I like that pick a lot.

01:02:28.827 --> 01:02:45.235
[SPEAKER_02]: I was going to say she him, but I've talked about him a lot on this podcast, and though I do think she can's a great buy, and I'm, you think the nationally version of Kyle Bradford for me, I'm going to pivot here and go, Kate Horton, but I think is a, it's given where, you know, his, uh, redraft 80 P is, which is,

01:02:45.215 --> 01:02:47.798
[SPEAKER_02]: pretty close to 200 and it goes like what 80 something.

01:02:48.398 --> 01:03:04.654
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like he's still being under value, which is kind of interesting to say about a guy that had a ERA under 3, well under 3, as the rookie over, you know, 118 innings in a 2, 6, 7 ERA, 1, 0, a whip, and yeah, the ERA indicators were all mostly in the upper 3s.

01:03:05.355 --> 01:03:08.318
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think there's room to improve here with Horton.

01:03:08.518 --> 01:03:10.540
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, ERA probably goes up.

01:03:10.620 --> 01:03:13.683
[SPEAKER_02]: He's probably more like 3, 4, 3, 5 ERA.

01:03:13.704 --> 01:03:15.205
[SPEAKER_02]: That's still pretty good.

01:03:15.185 --> 01:03:28.317
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I think the key rate going up can offset the era going up, because the care, it was only 20 and a half percent this year, but I was watching him pitch and what he has for stuff and

01:03:29.512 --> 01:03:30.553
[SPEAKER_02]: badmassing ability.

01:03:31.074 --> 01:03:39.383
[SPEAKER_02]: I think there's an upside for him to jump that K rate a good five six percent into like that 25 to 26 percent range this year.

01:03:39.483 --> 01:03:45.630
[SPEAKER_02]: So if he's let's say 35 a array and a 25 percent K rate, that's still pretty good.

01:03:45.690 --> 01:03:49.454
[SPEAKER_02]: That's like a top 30 to 40 arm or something like that.

01:03:49.494 --> 01:03:57.122
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's looking at he's very forcing dominant 50 percent forcing usage rate, sweeper and change up combined.

01:03:57.102 --> 01:04:13.411
[SPEAKER_02]: for about 34% and those two were really good offerings, you know, sweeper 171 betting image against 37.5% with rate, change up 15 betting image against 154 sluggled out 0,000 runs allowed in a 47.8% with rate.

01:04:13.531 --> 01:04:18.199
[SPEAKER_02]: Also, as a curve ball, which is, it's okay, but

01:04:18.348 --> 01:04:39.647
[SPEAKER_02]: I think if you see maybe him go to that sweeper and change up a little bit more, maybe it's combined like 40%, 42% use is right on those two, and you know, given what we suffer from in the minor leagues as well, I think you could see, you know, again, a good five, six percent jump and key rate to help offset the area rising, you know, nearly a full run or whatever it may be.

01:04:39.627 --> 01:04:41.068
[SPEAKER_02]: I like Horton a lot.

01:04:41.088 --> 01:05:04.691
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's pretty undervalued right now and you know, out of all these rookie guys Just given the fact that there was so many other exciting Flash year rookie some last year a lot of the games we were talking about the museum rascals of the world who savages Chandler's But Clean's Burns is feel like he kind of gets a little lost in the shuffle because he's not quite as flashy as those guys So I'll I'll take that and get him for a much lower cost again.

01:05:04.711 --> 01:05:06.613
[SPEAKER_02]: It is 80p is near 200 so

01:05:06.593 --> 01:05:11.220
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's still being a little undervalued right now for what he can't potentially give you.

01:05:11.280 --> 01:05:13.683
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I think he's a great density by right now.

01:05:14.084 --> 01:05:20.012
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm going to play devil's advocate a little bit like and it ended on that note a little bit.

01:05:20.112 --> 01:05:25.800
[SPEAKER_01]: I just kind of I can't really help but kind of see the court and is a better real life picture than fantasy picture.

01:05:26.033 --> 01:05:29.197
[SPEAKER_01]: Mainly, they kind of at the 7.4 strike out for nine.

01:05:29.598 --> 01:05:31.420
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't really like the fastball shape at all.

01:05:31.520 --> 01:05:34.925
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of the movement on the pitch is kind of well below league average in that regard.

01:05:35.426 --> 01:05:41.874
[SPEAKER_01]: I just kind of question whether, like, I think on one hand, like you could have a guy like who has a deep enough pitch mix to make it work.

01:05:42.335 --> 01:05:50.506
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think maybe the aside, if you could bump the K-Raid back to what it was in Triple A, maybe like a Pablo Lopez type pitcher, I'm just not sure.

01:05:50.526 --> 01:05:55.753
[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of quite see the low threes ERA with really good ratios that I kind of

01:05:55.733 --> 01:06:04.950
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, feel like I could still get that upside from from some other pictures in that kind of 150-ish range if he does get up there with a good spring.

01:06:05.352 --> 01:06:08.936
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, I'm not entirely on a hoard and I think he's an interesting picture.

01:06:08.977 --> 01:06:12.301
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's maybe a good number three there.

01:06:12.321 --> 01:06:20.871
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just kind of not sure I see the fantasy appeal, especially in points leagues, where I don't think the ratios are gonna be all that great.

01:06:21.652 --> 01:06:35.089
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think he's much better real life picture in that, you know, knows how to pitch, plays in a very favorable, more favorable ballpark in Chicago, and I think a guy that can be just a steady

01:06:36.048 --> 01:06:39.213
[SPEAKER_02]: No, that's not that's not unfair by any means.

01:06:39.253 --> 01:06:43.340
[SPEAKER_02]: I think there's, you know, there's some concern with the fastball he mentioned.

01:06:43.381 --> 01:06:44.943
[SPEAKER_02]: There's not the greatest shape, though.

01:06:45.284 --> 01:06:46.947
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it was a positive 10 run value.

01:06:46.967 --> 01:06:51.454
[SPEAKER_02]: So it was still pretty effective for him last year, but he had a 280 to XBA.

01:06:51.474 --> 01:06:53.939
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think it was a little bit to luck there.

01:06:53.979 --> 01:06:57.845
[SPEAKER_02]: Also had a 51% heart hit rate allowed on that foreseamer.

01:06:57.945 --> 01:06:58.326
[SPEAKER_02]: But,

01:06:58.306 --> 01:07:18.390
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there's definitely some works there and I don't think either he's going to be top 25 arm or anything that but I think he could be like a top 35 to 40 arms kind of somewhere in that range so maybe I think like closer to 150 is where I'd expect him so you know I do think there's a little bit of value there as you mentioned and kind of going closer to that kind of 190 range.

01:07:18.370 --> 01:07:28.326
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I'm just like, I do think he's going to be that kind of picture where you see, like, I, you know, I think, you know, I think, you know, showed a human dog as an interesting one to look at where you could see some kind of really good years from him.

01:07:28.366 --> 01:07:31.291
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you could see some years where kind of haters just figure him out.

01:07:31.331 --> 01:07:32.613
[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff just isn't playing.

01:07:32.694 --> 01:07:44.513
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you're going to see a lot of, you know, I think you could see a couple like 3.3.6, 3.7, ERA years and then you're going to see some years like, you know, like kind of like Lopez and Emanagari kind of have more of a low force, which is not great ratios.

01:07:45.269 --> 01:07:46.852
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I like that you brought up Lopez.

01:07:46.892 --> 01:07:48.475
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that could be a fair comp bucket.

01:07:48.535 --> 01:07:52.723
[SPEAKER_02]: If everything kind of works out for for Horton, I think public Lopez is a fair range.

01:07:52.763 --> 01:07:54.626
[SPEAKER_02]: I got this just like, all right, he's a good number three.

01:07:55.007 --> 01:08:02.400
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not he's not God that you really anchor your rotation around, but you're a good third fourth guy, depending on you how deep your league is that I'm good.

01:08:02.667 --> 01:08:05.411
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a fair range for me, so I think we agree there.

01:08:05.431 --> 01:08:20.534
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Lopez's second area is we're a little better, so I think there's still some that Horton has to develop to get there, but I do think it's an interesting one in the sense that there were some years for Pablo Lopez where he was kind of discussed as a guy that you would go after his or low-end one for fantasy.

01:08:20.574 --> 01:08:24.861
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you get one of those years for Horton, and then the next year he's kind of, you know,

01:08:24.841 --> 01:08:27.026
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you willing to take that shot as your number four?

01:08:27.447 --> 01:08:37.348
[SPEAKER_01]: So, interesting picture and I, you know, I would love to be proven wrong in the fancy value, but I think there's a lot more, a lot more value here in real life than there is fantasy.

01:08:38.864 --> 01:08:43.811
[SPEAKER_02]: I think a lot of the cubs arms this year kind of like that better in real life than fantasy.

01:08:43.831 --> 01:08:46.215
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think Matthew boy kind of fits that mold.

01:08:46.255 --> 01:08:53.125
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, naga's in that role, you know, Ebroke Beres kind of a wild card, but that's a really interesting rotation.

01:08:53.145 --> 01:08:56.510
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's going to work out either really well or just not great at all.

01:08:57.291 --> 01:08:59.314
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I got a lot of wide range.

01:08:59.475 --> 01:08:59.775
[SPEAKER_02]: Why.

01:08:59.975 --> 01:09:05.203
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that boy Cabrera, Horton and Managa, like, what a lot wide variance on those guys for sure.

01:09:05.383 --> 01:09:10.010
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I didn't even connect that whole rotation or like guys that don't like for fantasy until you brought it up.

01:09:10.091 --> 01:09:14.758
[SPEAKER_01]: And now that I'm out of my mind, you know, I don't, I have one Cabrera share about outside of that.

01:09:14.798 --> 01:09:17.562
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think I'll have any shares of these guys on my teams.

01:09:19.280 --> 01:09:23.927
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I'll probably get a share for him, just as just to see if my thoughts are correct.

01:09:24.728 --> 01:09:28.092
[SPEAKER_02]: In Managa, I was like, I liked, I'm not so into him this year.

01:09:28.994 --> 01:09:32.839
[SPEAKER_02]: Cabrera, I've always been intrigued by, I just felt he's a tease.

01:09:32.859 --> 01:09:37.245
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, Cabrera is like, you know, oh, he could be a top 20 arm than he just isn't, like every year.

01:09:37.385 --> 01:09:40.870
[SPEAKER_02]: But we'll see what the Cubs see if they can unlock something that Miami couldn't.

01:09:40.890 --> 01:09:42.773
[SPEAKER_02]: No, Miami has generally been better.

01:09:42.753 --> 01:09:46.418
[SPEAKER_02]: with pitching development then the cubs have over the last five years or so.

01:09:46.538 --> 01:09:48.381
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see what what happens.

01:09:48.521 --> 01:09:51.145
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, it's a good place to end the show.

01:09:51.365 --> 01:09:52.807
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, and thank you for coming on.

01:09:52.887 --> 01:09:54.209
[SPEAKER_02]: Always a pleasure talking to you.

01:09:54.710 --> 01:09:57.173
[SPEAKER_02]: Any any closing words where we get out of here?

01:09:58.375 --> 01:09:59.417
[SPEAKER_01]: Nothing in closing.

01:09:59.517 --> 01:10:03.342
[SPEAKER_01]: Just so I'm going to have my dynasty and redraft positional ranks out in the next couple weeks.

01:10:03.382 --> 01:10:04.323
[SPEAKER_01]: So keep it out for those.

01:10:04.564 --> 01:10:07.528
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find me on x at on underscore fb and then

01:10:07.508 --> 01:10:12.955
[SPEAKER_01]: probably top 100 ranks as well for the preseason in the next few weeks and set it for baseball to be back.

01:10:13.936 --> 01:10:14.516
[SPEAKER_02]: Absolutely.

01:10:14.577 --> 01:10:22.346
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just great to have spring training video flooding my timeline now, though it's kind of the damn handmade bone injury.

01:10:22.366 --> 01:10:23.567
[SPEAKER_02]: So we have enough of those.

01:10:24.208 --> 01:10:35.642
[SPEAKER_01]: It's funny because it's like we all want baseball to be back and then we get the, you know, Corbin Carroll or Jackson holiday

01:10:35.622 --> 01:10:38.549
[SPEAKER_02]: I know, it feels like, you know, I think I might have tweeted this out.

01:10:38.569 --> 01:10:46.147
[SPEAKER_02]: I forget, but the scene from space GM when the whole team is like her on the bench and this feels like that's best baseball right now.

01:10:46.167 --> 01:10:46.709
[SPEAKER_02]: Everyone's hurt.

01:10:46.749 --> 01:10:49.696
[SPEAKER_02]: If you was like, but let's turn the injuries off for a little bit.

01:10:49.796 --> 01:10:53.445
[SPEAKER_02]: And we've had enough of those already, but yeah, let's get over months.

01:10:53.425 --> 01:10:53.806
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.

01:10:53.926 --> 01:10:54.487
[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.

01:10:55.048 --> 01:10:57.071
[SPEAKER_02]: That is going to wrap up the show.

01:10:57.111 --> 01:11:02.881
[SPEAKER_02]: Everyone go follow Owen on Twitter slash x o one underscore fb lot of good stuff there.

01:11:02.942 --> 01:11:10.675
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll be back with you again next week going over some relievers with Mike Carter could join in the show, but until then everyone take care.

