[SPEAKER_01]: What's up everyone?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed Podcast brought to you by Rotobar.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 433.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the show is at Toolshed Pod.
[SPEAKER_01]: continuing a third base today with a third base at Dynasty rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Have a great guest with me to break it all down.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is a fantasy baseball analyst and podcaster for scout the statline.
[SPEAKER_01]: Mr. Owen heard at Owen underscore FBB on Twitter.
[SPEAKER_01]: Owen, how's it going, bud?
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm doing great.
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for having me, Eric been an exciting offseason so far, getting into FYPD season.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's always a fun time of year and excited for baseball to come back.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, thankfully, dynasty leagues and FIPD and all that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've kind of helped bridge the gap because we just kind of came out of a very slow part.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was a good start of the off season that kind of died down late December, early January, then Alex pregnant science.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of fun, you know, that have a few, you know, like Okamoto signing and Murkami signing help us get through.
[SPEAKER_01]: But,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's the thing with baseball, the offseason definitely is more stretched out as opposed to like an NBA NFL, we're just like boom, like one or two days.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know which one I'd prefer more, like the flurry all at once, then you're kind of like getting nothing rush to the time.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, but this kind of being a drag at times, like waiting for the next guy to sign or another big grid to happen, so I think each has its pros and cons, though.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's on one hand, it's like super slow and then on the other hand, you, you,
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at the, you know, all the player rights that baseball has compared to some of the other sports, especially on the free agency side window is probably never going to happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, all I ask is that, you know, by pictures and catchers report maybe signs.
[SPEAKER_00]: Give me like a few months of kind of spread out big splash signings.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm good with that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel it's spent a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: 100%.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we still got, you know, still wait and see where a Kyle Tucker winds up, Cody Belinger, you know, a few others, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: available and you know, Breggman just signed with the Chicago Cubs for five years.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll get into him in a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: But before we do, the usual housekeeping.
[SPEAKER_01]: You enjoy the podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: Please rate and review.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find all of my content either on rotoballor or over on my Patreon, which is toolshreadfanac.com.
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[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's start off.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, and with our personal top 10 rankings at this third base spot.
[SPEAKER_01]: So who do you got in those top 10 spots?
[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, I'll be honest.
[SPEAKER_00]: I did not have those open.
[SPEAKER_00]: So give me one moment.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_00]: So one through 10 for me, I have Junior Caminaro.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's the firm one right now over Jose Ramirez.
[SPEAKER_00]: As much as I love Jose, followed by Jose Ramirez.
[SPEAKER_00]: 3, 4, and 5, Manny Machado, Austin Riley, and Makell Garcia, and 6, through 10, I have Alex Braggman, Jordan Westburg, Addison Barger, Matt Shaw, and Ysak Parades.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's an interesting crop there, and then 11 through 20, I have Sal Stewart, Brett Vady, Yuhangio Suarez, Carlos Correa, Kazuma, Okamoto, Alec Bome, Dueli Marté, Miguel Vargas, Colt Keith, and Muna Takamura, Kami.
[SPEAKER_00]: and then 21 through 30, kind of where you get to the grim days of the position.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have marked the entose Royce Lewis, Matt Chapman, Jordan Waller, Marcelo Meyer, Jacob Remer, Caleb Durbin, Brooks Lee, Max Munstie, and Josh Young to round out my 1 through 30.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, for me, I got in my top 10 junior camonero at one.
[SPEAKER_01]: Jose Ramirez two.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have just shism in here because he saw his eligibility for now, though he does, you know, he's probably going to lose it after this year, but for now he's my three.
[SPEAKER_01]: Austin Riley is a, I shouldn't have asked him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a Cagar C, I have it four.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then Austin Riley five.
[SPEAKER_01]: Many of a Chado six, JJ weatherhold to, I think, might wind up there and it's put there in the mile leagues a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I included them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have him at 7, Jordan Westburg 8, Elg's Brecken 9, Addison, Barger.
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, at 10, I'll get my rest of my rank is up here in a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: But let's start right there at the top with junior camon arrow, who, you know, huge, huge year in 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's kind of taken the third base world by storm, 45 home runs, 93 run scored, seven steals, 110 RBI as a 21 year old for, I think, the good chunk of the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: 264, 311, 535, slash line as it takes over the top spot here still only 22 years old, so you got to imagine maybe even more you know better things up coming here for junior camera narrow, but you know when you look at this third base spots here, oh and and do you think that you know.
[SPEAKER_01]: The top, you know, the top spot, the crown is going to be on Junior Cameron and it was head, you know, for the foreseeable future and do you think he can be like a first round kind of dynasty guy like top 12 top 15 overall?
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you think there?
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, so to answer the first question I do, I think right now for redraft, I still I'm still favoring Jose Ramirez there, but I think looking back to you next three to five years Junior Cameras that I'm questionable one one for me right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think usually it's a profile that I would be a little bit hesitant pushing his eyes I have and my kind of upcoming guys to rank so I'll have out closer to the season but the power is just so good and that's scary part is I think he's only going to get better you know 92.4 average EV 51.4 heart hit rate the contact skills are good for someone his age the launch angles have really improved a lot the one kind of small error small
[SPEAKER_00]: area of concern I do have are the kind of home road splits.
[SPEAKER_00]: He hit is a 3313 at home in 2013 on the road.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the home runs were pretty evenly split out, so I think he's going to be able to overcome that.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I do think for now, I do think we can see him grow into a player who can give you a good average, good OPP and pair that with just a lead home runs and RBIs.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I do think he's firmly in that one one spot for me right now and for the foreseeable future.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's really, really amazing what he was able to do as such a young age.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, okay, at him, I know it wasn't his rookie year like it was with Nick Kurtz, but it was like, you're both of them kind of broke out and ascended to the top of each of those corner infield spots, you know, surpassing two studs in Vladiat first.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then Joe Ram, you know, here at third and just real quick, on Joe Ram, the kind of smack I really get into him, everyone knows Joe Ram's great has been for a long time, but, you know, I can make the kind of speaks to both the lack.
[SPEAKER_01]: of truly elite options and also how damn good Joe Ram is that still be a number two guy here while just hurting 33 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's just phenomenal career for Joe Ram.
[SPEAKER_01]: Usually don't see a guy at 33 years old still this high in in dynasty rankings, but you make an exception and you're back with with Freeman and with Joe Ram these ups and guys that just are aging like fine wine.
[SPEAKER_01]: You make an exception for those guys, but
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, came in arrow.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all fields power.
[SPEAKER_01]: Look, look at this spray chart like his home runs, you know, a little more to left, but ready spread out across the entire ballpark yet plenty of the center, plenty to right is that.
[SPEAKER_01]: elite all fields power and you mentioned the quality of contact over 50% heart hit rate 14 cent barrel rate and really you know good contact hit or two key rate under 20% you know right around a league average zone contact rate and overall contact rate a little bit aggressive you know so a little bit of a lower walk rate you know a little bit of a higher chase rate but neither one that are like super concerning so maybe he's not the biggest OBP guy
[SPEAKER_01]: about 260 plus average, you know, 35, 40 plus from runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you can lock that in for the disabled future.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm definitely all in on Camino being as high as he is, is he ever going to be top 10?
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably not top 10 just because he doesn't really provide a lot of speed and I think this is really hard to into that top 10 overall without being at least like a 15 plus steel guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: But maybe,
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we'll maybe he'll run a little bit more.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not a burner, but we've seen me once out of the still like 38 bags.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he never now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we see Camino are going up into the 1215 steals, but yeah, even even if he's just like in that top 15 ish range and in the teens, which kind of I haven't it hurts as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's still very, very good for Camino era new top dog at this position.
[SPEAKER_01]: We did have a couple of breakouts here.
[SPEAKER_01]: At this third base spot, you know, the biggest one I think was my Cal Garcia had a really phenomenal year kind of hinted at a breakout.
[SPEAKER_01]: He hinted at like, you know, some good skills here and there, but never really put it all together until 2025 slash 286 351 449 81 runs 39 doubles 16 home runs 23 steals pretty solid 62 to 84 walked straight out rate as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of good metrics under the hood, too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, microaggressia 25 years old, are you buying the Garcia breakout here, Owen?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I am.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think with his kind of contact, too, is just the 92% plus own contact and also kind of pair in that with a 91.3 average exit fee low.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a really good combination.
[SPEAKER_00]: The launch angles aren't quite kind of weird like to be.
[SPEAKER_00]: So buying to an extent, I don't think he's gonna be a,
[SPEAKER_00]: Much more than I don't think he's quite at 20 plus home run guy yet, but I do think if he gets that point we could be looking at you know a potential top three fantasy bird basement when you kind of pair that with his contact skills and his approach just a 90% dollar better and his chase rate with Ra K rate which is really great sea really good to fend around there too and the guy is going to give you 20 plus stone bases so
[SPEAKER_00]: I am buying this, I think, at cost, he's still even a little bit undervalued.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to say he was in that kind of 70s range.
[SPEAKER_00]: Last time I looked at that early ADP, but I'm very, very excited about my Kelk RCA.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if we can see the launch angles continue the trajectory that they have the past couple of years, I do think there could be a bit more with the power as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that's really the key for him last season was just hitting the ball in the air a little bit more consistently.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he improved the air rate from 50 and a half percent to 55 percent, pull rate from 29.7 to 35.3 percent and pull air rate from 10.8 to 16.2 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you really went from being below average across the board to, you know, right around league average
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, it hits the ball hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned the near elite contact rates, only a 20.8% chase rates, only a 12.6% strikeout rate, is walk rate ticked up to a career best 9.3%.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of good here, and also 23 steals or more in each of the last three seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you get that speed element that you don't usually get from the spot.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you're still getting a good average, no above 270,
[SPEAKER_01]: You're getting, he's gotten over 80 runs each of the last two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: If he just stays in like that 15 home range, which I think is absolutely reasonable with potential for more, even if you're 15 plus and give me to those 20 plus deals, for everything else he does.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's just something nice well rounded offense of profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not a lot of, you know, outside of the angles not being the greatest, not a lot of red flags, yeah, in this profile either.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, again, there's no like, oh, look at that low contact radar, that high K radar, or bad, you know, heart hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: pretty solid across the board for the most part.
[SPEAKER_01]: It might not be like the flashiest profile round, but it's a rock solid profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I mean, I have them, you know, super high in my dynasty rankings now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right, the point where I have them is a top five option here, and even ahead of Austin Riley, he'll get into here in a second, but yeah, I am definitely buying.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sipping the micro Garcia coolant.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have a few shares to kind of back it up to.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think one thing also that just gives me so much kind of comfort in this profile long term is just, you know, he doesn't really have any glaring holes against any you know, it's like the highest highs with rage 17.7 against breaking balls, highest lowest lowest lowest lowest batting average was 267 against off speed.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's not kind of any pitch type that, you know, a pitcher can look at him to say, oh, I'm just going to hammer him with this because I know we've been
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think, too, even if we kind of see the power stick in that kind of 15 to 18 range long term, I think he is kind of a perennial kind of 280, you know, good OPP, 20 plus steel guy for the foreseeable future.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that too gives him a lot better of a floor to them, a lot of guys that we kind of have in his range in our dyes do ranks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 100% agreed.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just keep our fingers across to those batable angles.
[SPEAKER_01]: At least stay where they were last year and don't go back down to
[SPEAKER_01]: Next I up here Austin Riley who I mentioned a little while ago that we are going to get into here now kind of back to back not
[SPEAKER_01]: bad seasons, but I think underwhelming is as fair to say, I mean, you're coming off 2023 year when he hit 281 at 37 home runs, 117 RBI, I mean, he had three straight years of 33 plus home runs from 2021 to 2023, also had at least 90 RBI, at least 93, at least 93 RBI, at least 90 runs,
[SPEAKER_01]: And was hitting between 273 and 303 each of those three years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he was right up there in the number two number three number four kind of spot, you know, there was a him and divers were up there behind Joe Ram.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now, last two years, he's been under 500 plate appearances, both years and again, not bad, but, you know, 24, 256, 322, 461, 252, 60, 309, 428 slash line under 20 home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: each of the last two years as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So where are you at on Austin Riley now?
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, oh, when do you think he can get back to, you know, those pre 2024 levels, still 28 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: So where are you at on him now after these last two kind of underwhelming meshesions?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so he's still, he's still number four on my dynasty ranks.
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of that is still just kind of where the quality of contact has been, despite the kind of the flory of injuries.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's dealt with including a wrist one, which those are tricky.
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, rejects it below last year still elite 92.3 bill rate 15.2% the hard hit rate of about 5% that's be 93% tile.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a lot of still really really kind of green flags that kind of keep them at least in terms of upside in that range for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm also very interested to with the Metz first base coming over and Riley's kind of 73% health spirit speed if he's going to be a guy that we see kind of get that stolen base jump that we didn't kind of see coming like with kind of one photo on the Metz last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's an interesting one to watch.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the big kind of ex-factor here is are we going to get the walk rate back to kind of the close to the average that was in 23 and 24 dip down to 6% last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: The K rate was up at 28.6%.
[SPEAKER_00]: with rate also repressed a bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I do think he's kind of a polarizing, one of the more polarizing options in that kind of top five, because on one hand, there is kind of the quality contact, and we've seen him kind of be at top three option at this position, and then on the other hand, you have those red flags that he's kind of worsened in amidst the injuries, and you have a guy who could be kind of more of a back end top 10 or borderline top 10 option at the position.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I feel like there's a middle ground to be had here between kind of where he's been last couple of years and where he was before that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still think he can get back up to 30 home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: I definitely believe that, like you mentioned, quality of contact is still very good, you know, average EV, barrel rate, heart hit rate, all really in line with those big seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, so at a 15% barrel rate last year, average EV over 92 miles now for the fourth straight year, our hit rate over 50% and the third out of the last fourth year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, yeah, the key rate's gone up a little bit, walk it's gone down a little bit, as those are concerning, but bad at ball angles are still there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Contact rates are kind of in line with this career.
[SPEAKER_01]: They've gone down a little bit, but not to
[SPEAKER_01]: like super concerning levels.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's the one area where I'm kind of questioning, does he get back up to that 280, or even 270 plus range?
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe not.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he's, you know, supposed to be down this 260 range moving forward, but I do think he
[SPEAKER_01]: You see him get back up either over or at least flirting with 30 home runs, you see healthy, that's obviously key here.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think there's still like a 260, 30, you know, 100 type of bat here to be had.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, I think this, the Atlanta Braves are due for some positive mocha.
[SPEAKER_01]: They've had some, like the last two years not land to offense of way, like I don't know what, if they sold out, you know, all their voodoo magic in 2023 when they had that, like, other world we, like all time offense.
[SPEAKER_01]: but you know, a lot of bad things have happened both injuries and performance for them over the last couple of years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So still a very good lineup.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think Riley would be right in the middle of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I still have him in that top five range.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just yeah, that position is this lacking super early guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: So until maybe get some of the younger guys kind of overtaking him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's still gonna be top five at least for the next few years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Still only 28 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, another veteran here when that just to sign with the new team, Alex Breggman last year with the Red Sox, now with the Chicago Cubs, you know, coming off, you know, a little bit of an injury short and season only 495 plate appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: No, but was his usual like on, you know, a per game basis pretty aligned with, you know, the last several years before that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Slash 273, 360, 462, 18 home runs, 64 runs scored and 62 RBI.
[SPEAKER_01]: So really on a, you know, 27, 20 and Homer, 90 plus run, 90 plus RBI pace with his usual, you know, high OPP, solid average, you know, mid 400's slug.
[SPEAKER_01]: So pretty consistent, you know, fragment over the years, even when he looked at the metrics under the hood.
[SPEAKER_01]: higher contact, you know, over 90% in zone contact rate, each of the last one, two, three, four, five, that's seven or eight years, you know, over 82% overall, each of the last eight years, obviously, the lead approach, quality of contact is, you know, a little bit of a,
[SPEAKER_01]: of average and nothing that stands out, but still very much in line again with what he's been the previous years.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now in a new ballpark, we saw parades not really farewell in really deeply deeper left field than bregg was been used to both that Fenway and in Houston at whatever that park is called now die con park or where I came from it off that name now.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, not as good of a park, good line up around him though.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what do you think about Breggman here?
[SPEAKER_01]: 31 year old Alex Breggman moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: Still a top 10 guy for the next few years for you, Owen?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, even with the landing spot, not being a good fit for his power.
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw Scott White earlier today, kind of throughout the Brady's comp.
[SPEAKER_00]: Breggman kind of being kind of still a poll heavy hit or I think Parades is a bit of an extreme to put on him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that park is still going to be good for Especially his doubles and his kind of gap to gap in the have regard.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think in being in a good lineup He's going to be a good with accounting stats The approach was to approach is still elite like the chase with and K raid all remained great The walk rate rebounded last year to 10.3% which was really promising to see And I think it's you can't overlook just how consistent he's been to is since 2022 Monks qualify third baseman
[SPEAKER_00]: He's in the top eight, eight, and home runs, RBI's walk rate, K rate, average OBP, slugging runs.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think to have a guy that can still be a, you know, average to above average in forecasts with elite ratios is still a very valuable fantasy player.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, I think we are going to see kind of a closer to a 20-home run that over a full 162 games than a kind of upper 20s that he was kind of on the pace on with the red socks, but I think there's still enough intrigue in the profile, especially with the ratios, and especially with the counting staff potential in that lineup.
[SPEAKER_00]: Then I'm still taking Alex Bergman as a top 10 third baseman.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I still have him as back into, where do they have him?
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh yeah, I have him at number nine overall here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, at least for the next few years, I think maybe he'll start tailoring off as he gets more into that 34 range or so, but I think the next few years, I think you're so good to see like a two, yeah, 270, 20, 10 player, good OBP, solid, no matter runs in RBI.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, again last year, if you played a whole year, it was probably gonna get at least over 80 runs, 80 RBI,
[SPEAKER_01]: somewhere in that 23 to 26 homer range, which again, this is pretty much where he has, but this is a high floor guy, and it's a safe back end option of you that you don't want to pay up from the big names and you don't want to take a risk and like a younger guy, like a barger or something like that, you just want a little more stability, a little more reliability, a little more track record, breakments you do, especially if you're contending team in a Diance League, if you're kind of rebuilding or not contending now,
[SPEAKER_01]: Bregman probably doesn't as appeal as much to you, but yeah, if you're one of the team's reggaeric, all right, I'm in this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going for this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bregman still a valuable piece, even if the homeruns don't get back up to that 25 plus range where he was a couple years ago, but yeah, still a very good player.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Very rock solid, high floor guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's move into the, oh, you have something else on him.
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, it's, uh, I was just agreeing with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: Cool.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's move into the next set here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of the 11, the 20 range of the third base dynasty rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: And for me, in that 11th or 20 spots, I have Novelve Marté, Matt Chapman, kind of a, another kind of version of Bragman, so on those solid veterans, Grace Lewis, South Stewart, Esauk Paradez, Colson Montgomery, Ayohenio Suarez, Brett Bady, I'm going to talk about a comic who probably will play some first base, but I won't roll it third base a little bit too.
[SPEAKER_01]: and then Alec Bome in the 20's spot, probably the most boring guy Alec Bome, but hey, he's kind of solid and a low key way, but once you, I want to remind people who you had 11 through 20 in your rankings here.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so 11 through 11 through 20 in my ranks.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have Sal Stewart at 11, Brett Bady at 12.
[SPEAKER_00]: You hand your swars at 13.
[SPEAKER_00]: Carlos Correa at 14.
[SPEAKER_00]: Casuma, Okamoto at 15.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then Alec Bowman's 16 followed by 17 through 20.
[SPEAKER_00]: No, I'll be more today.
[SPEAKER_00]: Be Gal Vargas, Colt Keith, and Luna Takamura County.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's start with a guy that I think most people have in this 11 to 20 range, and it's actually a good segue after we just talked about the newest Chicago Cup third basement, where does that leave Matt Shaw at this point?
[SPEAKER_01]: It got that was considered a top prospect, I think generally probably like that 11 to 20 range for top prospect rankings last year, maybe some back-end top 10 ranks.
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... but saw his value take a little bit of a hit though still had thirteen home runs and seventeen steels last year in four hundred and thirty seven plate appearances so really over a you know full year it's probably somewhere around twenty twenty five uh... which is pretty solid even with pretty underwhelming
[SPEAKER_01]: metrics.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, had a 90th percentile sprint speed, which is solid, walking carrots, both right around leg average and same with contact rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: Zone was about 1% better than leg average and overall about 2.5% better.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's pretty solid, but quality of contact just was not there.
[SPEAKER_01]: 84.9 mile an hour average EV, 29% heart hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those did get a little bit better as a season went on, but
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, you know, given what we saw from him, you know, with the metrics last year and now with Breggman in the mix, you know, kind of there's some questions around Matt Shaw both, I think this year and like this is a long-term value.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, after seeing, you know, what happened with Shaw last year, Owen, where are you at on him now?
[SPEAKER_01]: You, you still a, a Shaw guy moving forward?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I was definitely encouraged by the second half of the 258-317-522 11-home runs 29 RBI's Count the Ground Ball Rate by 10% you mentioned the Sprint Speed, which is really good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I think at 2025, 2030 player is very much well within reach for him.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you mentioned kind of the strikeout rate in the walk rate, being kind of round league average, nothing glaring is a rookie, which I think.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think leads me to believe there's we're going to seek a better average and better OPP going forward, but definitely a murky playing time situation in 2026, especially now with Breggman.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't really see them moving off, short of somewhere where you play full time, especially with Nico Horner and a walk here.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think boring, boring, kind of corner getting traded, and you know, that leaves Sean kind of a super utility role for 2026, which definitely kind of reduces my interest in this upcoming season, but I do think it creates a good buying opportunity and
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, except there's still a lot of good in the profile, you know, speed, contact skills approach and all pretty solid.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just, where's that power?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to wind up.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're still hitting home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think was definitely aided by, you know, some good bad at ball, you know, angles 60% air, 41% poll, 22% poll air, so I think that definitely definitely helped a bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: But,
[SPEAKER_01]: He was a huge power guy in the miners either, but I did not expect him to be kind of like you know, bottom percentile in average EV and hard hit right though again those did take up a little bit in the second half of the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So as long as he can just give me 15 to 20 home runs with 20 plus deals, I think the average OBP will definitely take up
[SPEAKER_01]: bit here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm still in on him being, I don't know if he'll ever be like a, you know, top 10 starting caliber third baseman.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think that shock can still be like a solid like corner infield type for you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like a guy that's like maybe 12 to 18 at this position.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe a back end guy in a deeper format, high end corner infielder in the shallow format that has some up a little bit more upside than than most in that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I still like him in that regard, but yeah, I don't know where he's going to kind of fit in with this Cubs team.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of guys are still trying to fit in, you know, on Casey got shipped out, but, you know, little can maybe get by a stereo, some playtime at catcher, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think shot is a solid buy right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not like running out to get him, but I still think there's more value to be had here than what we saw from him in 2025.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think two in die-stead leagues, you can't really underscore kind of like, you know, even guys in their rookie year that are kind of at the MLB level and do you perform as taking, they can still be acquired for prospects.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not kind of talking about like a proven kind of big league contributor yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're kind of buying upside.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I think at the prospect
[SPEAKER_00]: with the in-season ads where kind of back end, top 100 guys are very easily replaceable.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd be willing to package three to four guys in my kind of, you know, top 50 to top 75 overall range to see if I can get a conversation started for Matt Shaw.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I do think just with how weak this position is, like, you know, my kind of my eight through 12 with barger shop, Parades, Stewart, and Brett Badey are all pretty close for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, I do think with Shaw's power and his stolen bases, if we see the hit tool, kind of get back to closer to what it was in the miners.
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think I could kind of see him in that back end top 10 range.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not gonna say it top five yet, but it is a super weak position.
[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen kind of, I can kind of see the maybe my Kelgarcia
[SPEAKER_00]: If the hit to a lever gets back to where it was, where you kind of have a guy where there's some there's some big questions, like in Garcia's cases, you know, lift the ball enough and Shaw's case is it, you know, is he going to be a power over hit guy or, you know, is it hit over power or any going to stand out?
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think Shaw could kind of get into that kind of back end top 10 range, especially given just how weak that position is.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, the good call there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that power really the extractor here was seeing where that power ultimately winds up.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it'll be in the big, big determining factor of which where he ultimately settles in at in third base and overall a dynasty rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: And another kind of guy that had a sneaky good season this past year, Brett Bady.
[SPEAKER_01]: And guy that was former good, not a leap prospect, a former like good, top 25, top 30 caliper prospect.
[SPEAKER_01]: kind of have been up and down mostly down with the mets in this majorly 10 year over the last you know 2022 through 2024 but 2025 I think finally found a little bit of footing here wasn't like a huge is in Miami means but so I was 254 313 435 18 home runs and 8 steals in 432 plate appearances so
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, start with that out kind of like a 25, 12 type of season or so, and if you got like, you know, another 200 or so plate appearances, so that's pretty good and some decent metrics under the hood as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's some a little bit of some concerns in some, but definitely some some red nets have on profile as well and still only 26 years old, so.
[SPEAKER_01]: Where are you at right now on Brett Badey?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is he a buy for you and Nancy Leaks Owen?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think Brett Badey is a really good case of just kind of how quickly prospect shine can wear off, where you talked about how kind of the first two years.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like wasn't showing.
[SPEAKER_00]: He could be a big league regular, but I think now, especially with the last season, you're really starting to see kind of the flashes of what made him as highly
[SPEAKER_00]: And the quality of contact jumps were really in my opinion remarkable and I think he's someone who should be being mentioned as a breakout much more than he is the average EV jumps over three miles per hour fail rate up from 5.4 to 12.8% the hard hit rate up from 33% to 46.7 and he cut the chase rate by 7% with that.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think now all of a sudden you're looking at a guy who can be maybe a 25 10 guy and I'm really encouraged by kind of
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm really encouraged by the approach gains to the walk rate was close to the average K rate, a little, K rate of 25% in my opinion is still manageable with this quality contact.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I really think it's an interesting profile and I think we're going to get our first look of what a full season of PA's at third base can do for Brett Bady and I think now is maybe the last buying window we get for a while.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I agree there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it does look like he's going to have that every chance to kind of walk down that third base spot, but when forward they did bring in or a plonko, but he'll probably be mostly in that to each spot.
[SPEAKER_01]: They acquired semi and obviously he'll play second base, you know, you idiot played a little bit over there.
[SPEAKER_01]: at the Keystone as well, but I don't see any of like, you know, Mauricio or Luis on Hell, Cunier are those guys overtaking Bady unless he kind of just flounders out of the gate and then maybe because I don't think the leash is like super long, but I think he did show enough last year, especially in the second half of the season to at least get some sort of run here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, all right, let's see what we have here.
[SPEAKER_01]: in a Brett Badey because after the all-star break last year, that's really when you took off 291 353 477 after the all-star break nine homeruns four steals in 190 plate appearances.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you mentioned the
[SPEAKER_01]: quality of contact jumps across the board pretty pretty substantial jumps.
[SPEAKER_01]: New Max EV high for him of 115.6.
[SPEAKER_01]: The other contact skill to tick down a little bit, you know, he's below average both in zone and overall, but helps that he doesn't chase much.
[SPEAKER_01]: He cut the chase right.
[SPEAKER_01]: So while he did have a little bit less contact overall,
[SPEAKER_01]: cut the chase rate by 7% and that's really encouraging you know walk rate strike out rate below average but not anything in an alarming level so maybe he's not more than a 250 guy but if you if you can get 20 plus and 10 to 12 to 15 steel something like that not a burner but give you a little bit of speed yeah i think there's still a decent buying window here for Brett Badya i've always been kind of a Brett Bady guy saw him out in the AFL
[SPEAKER_01]: in and AA when he came through Bingham 10.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's really like the bat.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just got it was just hitting them all hard all over the field, especially into the gaps.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I was going to kind of a baby guy and I like him right now is a decent buy here in dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, next guy here, Addison Bargers, you know, kind of pushing top 10, I think, in this position for many people at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: You've got to, we'll play some outfield as well, but I think you should be able to maintain eligibility here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think, yes, you might be penciled in.
[SPEAKER_01]: at third base for actually he spent something that at right field, but you know, Oklahoma, they might want to move around.
[SPEAKER_01]: I heard as opposed to having him at just one spot.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I do think Marjor can at least maintain eligibility, but we shall see.
[SPEAKER_01]: But pretty good year for him in 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: 502 player appearances, 243, 301, 454, slash line.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can start without hot and then fizzle out a little bit, but it ended the season on a higher note.
[SPEAKER_01]: 21, home runs, four steals, 61 runs scored.
[SPEAKER_01]: And 74 RBI 32 doubles as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I guide that has really good quality of contact 51% hard hit rate in 93% tile that speed 11 and a half percent barrel rate almost 92 mile an hour average EV.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now pretty solid, ex-slug at 462 as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's a 30-homer bat in here with barger, maybe never going to be more than like a 250-ish guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: But given his quality of contact, good pull air rate, good pull rate, I can see a good 250-30 type of guy here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if he's given you dual eligibility, third base and some outfield, that's even better, too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I like barger a good bit, but where are you at on barger here and moving forward?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think I'm still in that kind of back, back in top 10 range, have him at have him at eight right now, right behind a sandwich between Jordan, Westburg and Matt Shaw.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I still still love barger good bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think one thing, not not as much applicable from a fancy sense, but the 99th percentile harm strength too, I think is really going to help keep him in the lineup.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, even with kind of, you know, not hitting lefty as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he is a good enough athlete and with his arm, it'll keep him at least kind of near every day reps between third and left field, right field or whatever outfield corner.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's in, but quality context is you mentioned really good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the the contact rates to and the the ratios don't kind of concern me enough for a guy who could be a 25 30 home run guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a guy that, you know, chased it just to got off a clip in the miners.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was like, I want to say 41%.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if cutting that by kind of 12% and kind of the first full, close not quite full season, but I guess like average season of PAs was really encouraging to for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: And
[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with kind of what you said about the home run potential and I think we're going to see at least a possible average the XBA 255 is a little bit better than is actual and I think the OPP and the ratios are going to be acceptable for a guy that can hit that amount of that amount of home runs and I wouldn't rule out, you know, I do think he's athletic enough to give you kind of double digit steals as well so
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm still in on Addison Barger.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I did push him a little bit high when he kind of started off on that heater, but I think kind of back end top 10 right now is where I'm kind of very comfortable with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the Jays kind of losing out on the Braggman's footsteps definitely gave me gave me kind of a bigger sense of confidence that you know, he'll get, he'll get good playing time between third-based and left.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely, and probably we'll be hitting in a pretty good lineup spot, too.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Ross's resource has him pencil that's in the second spot here, the most players as he had last year, pretty close between hitting second, fourth, and fifth in the order.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, that's either right before or right after that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I do think it probably a little bit higher on the order, you know, Boba Shet, probably gone.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you look in that probably spring or in the laid off spot, flatty in the three.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I guess he barger in that two or four or five.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you figure probably get these in matter of runs in our BI as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, pretty good in three categories, an average that won't kill you.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he won't give you a really any speed and never been that speed guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, maybe he gives you at least, you know, maybe five or six.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's not a zero there either too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think this is definitely a lot of good here.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of stuff to like here with Addison Barger, but all right, let's move into the 21 through 30 range.
[SPEAKER_01]: Here's where it gets kind of interesting though.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's definitely a lot of intrigue here for one reason or another, but obviously a higher element of risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: My 21 through 30, I got Colt Keith, who's also eligible at first and second as well, Jordan Lawler, who to hell knows, or he wants a button on the infield, but maybe third base.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and then I got Matt shots, 23, Kazuma Okamoto, the newest blue Jay or one of the newest blue Jay is they've been, you know, kind of getting everybody this off season.
[SPEAKER_01]: at 24, Mark Fiantos 25, and then 26 to 30, I got Jacob Burger, Josh Young, Tommy Edmund, Marcelo Meyer, and Caleb Durbin.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to remind of people here who you got in the 21 through 30 spots.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so 21 through 30.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have Mark Viento's at 21.
[SPEAKER_00]: Royce Lewis right behind him at 22.
[SPEAKER_00]: Matt Chapman right after that at 23.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's been kind of rock solid past few years, but I think just kind of get into the age where I struggle to put him in that kind of top 15 that he has been going forward.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jordan Lawler at 24, Marcel Mayer right behind him at 25.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then I've Jacob Rimmer at 26,
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's start with Royce Lewis, former number one overall pick, which feels like forever ago, and it kind of was 2017, but he's still only 26 years old, he's a high school guy, kind of that draft, and outside of all those grand slams he hits in, what year was that?
[SPEAKER_01]: I think 2023 we get all those grand slams.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I said that that's been,
[SPEAKER_01]: Not a lot of positives here for Royce Lewis.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, last year, he's had nuclear highs in really across the board for the most part, but that's because he played 166 games after only playing 58 and 82.
[SPEAKER_01]: The two years before that, you know, a lot of various injuries, especially with the knees.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, really got to wonder, is this guy ever going to be a guy that can play?
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a full 150 plus game season average has dropped below 240 each last two years OBP below 300.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's combined for 29 home runs last two years over 728 play appearances, but you know, that is over two seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of risk here and the good thing is he started running again had zero steals in 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe the knees are feeling a little bit better.
[SPEAKER_01]: Had 12 steals last year, so hopefully that part of his game is at least back to at least giving you something in that speed department.
[SPEAKER_01]: But at this point, Owen, I think Royce Lewis, at least at this position, one of the harder ones to rank, still fairly young, former top prospect pedigree, but a lot, a lot of pros, a lot of cons here.
[SPEAKER_01]: So how are you balancing all that?
[SPEAKER_01]: And what do you think we can get from Royce Lewis here, moving forward?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I got to say, no, kind of keep it bluntly, he's someone I want virtually no part of on my fantasy team as anything, kind of a bench flyer, I think the prospect pedigree plays a big role in kind of keeping people as high as they have been on him.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nothing really stands out to me, like the quality of contact is just a tad below average.
[SPEAKER_00]: the bat speed is really the kind of some only somewhat promising part of the savant page.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was batting the chase with and walk right or all below average.
[SPEAKER_00]: Striker right around lead average like the sprint speed isn't good and with his health I just I can't I'm never going to trust him to be a burner on the basis.
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, I would never want to rule out a guy like this, but another thing that really concerns me is just how much he struggles against fastballs.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was at worth a negative seven run value against fastballs with a 183 average against a 32.7 wiff rate against forcing fastballs.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's a big red flag to me.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to quit.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to quit Royce Lewis yet, but it's getting to a point yet where I kind of need to see it before I'm kind of at least
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that that's barrier.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's definitely moved into that.
[SPEAKER_01]: You got to show me something a part of this career.
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's way too early to be fully out.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got a Royce Lewis, but I definitely understand what you were saying, and I'm sure you weren't alone in that line of thinking where.
[SPEAKER_01]: People just don't really want you to do with him at this point and I'm kind of there too unless I get them for cheap which could happen Given you know, maybe the person that has them is just like fed up with it and wants to kind of sell them off for whatever he can get So he doesn't have to drop them at some point on the road, but yeah, I definitely
[SPEAKER_01]: expectations have been tempered with with Roy's Lewis.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I no longer think he's going to be, you know, in a week guy, or probably not even a starting caliber third baseman, but me, I'm hoping that there's a slight glimmer of hope that he could be this decent corner in the fielder.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, so thirdly young, you mentioned the bat speeds there, batable angles are pretty damn good, you know, above average, an air pole and pole air rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: That kind of helps
[SPEAKER_01]: D-sit would not like great quality of contact, you know, though he does keep the strike out right and check, you know, contact rates are a little bit below average, but not bad by any means.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's been kind of consistent in that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I still think if he gets a healthy for full year, what a 250 to 60 hitter, 20 25 home runs in the handful of steals, is that possible?
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I just don't know if he's like give us a full season.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean,
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, I'm saying he hit his feels like in field Byron on that the tools are as loud, but like in field Byron bucks and and you know, we talk about everyone talks about the Houston Astros You know keep not keeping guys healthy Minnesota's just bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think but just not has it been as like as you know Ridiculous like it was with the cured on and I'm a talker, but
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of injury issues there in Minnesota as well, so I just don't know if we ever can trust Royce to give us even like 500 plate appearances, at least not consistently.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think, too, and my question is, is kind of the opposite?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, you kind of asked, you know, what we see from Royce Lewis in a full of 160 games of work.
[SPEAKER_00]: My question is like, are we going to see and be able to handle at least kind of good metrics and good average, good power in that range?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, perhaps there's one of these players in most games, the chase rate has been 33.3 and 31.3% respectively, the zone contact has been just over 80%.
[SPEAKER_00]: that which doesn't stand out at all when you look at the quality of contact metrics.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to quit the guy, but I struggled to put more of a close to 20-home run ceiling with maybe an okay average and an okay OPP.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I mean, maybe the ceiling for me is like an out-home type player, and that's a big if he can handle a full season and be productive for it, and I just haven't seen that yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think right now it's, yeah, I think it's very much in kind of the way you can see, and I wouldn't even be interested in acquiring him right now, unless the cost was very minimal, which I don't think it won't be.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it will be, because I think a lot of people are still kind of holding on to hope that, you know, that number one overall pick and turn into a big league caliper player.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no.
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, next guy up, Marcelo Meyer, another guy that has some injury question marks here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, only 23 years old, so not as prominent of injury concerns as you've had with Royce Lewis, but at the same time Marcelo Meyer has never played really a full year or anything close to it throughout his professional career.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was drafted
[SPEAKER_01]: And then in 2022, between low AA, played 91 games, 2023, which was high AA and AA, 78 games, last year, in AAA, he had 43 games, and with Boston of 44.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's 87.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's been generally in that 80 to 90 gamers played range for the most part, and had a season cut short last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's never had more than 424 play appearances in any professional season.
[SPEAKER_01]: the numbers and kind of all over the place, you know, decent power.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's always what I kind of meant is calling card.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's in the above average power guy, average has really fluctuated a good bit, you know, solid enough walk rate to kind of kind of guy, but I do wonder this.
[SPEAKER_01]: is he more of like a 240 to 50 hitter, but that could be, I think he's a 25 homer guy too.
[SPEAKER_01]: If he can say healthy for a full year, kind of waiting to see where he winds up, the red socks still kind of have second and third base open.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe he plays third, maybe he plays some second if they bring in a third baseman.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: But
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Marcel Meyer still, I mean, another guy that has top prospect pedigree, former high, you know, top five overall draft pick.
[SPEAKER_01]: But another guy that we're a talent, a lot of risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: So are you in on Marcel Meyer here moving forward, Owen?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'll say I think the the power gains for him and the miners were notable, especially with his profile and his struggles against breaking in all speed, but the EVs to look promising in his MLB sample size at 90 average 9.2 barrel 51.7 hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I agree with you on the average, I think the health is maybe a 30-grade at best.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think Marcelo met a buyer's kind of in that way and see if I can get him as a secondary piece in a trade if I'm rebuilding and dynasty.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would maybe go in to take that shot, but I think too there's the red flags or substantial enough that I'm not acquiring him as a top 25 prospect anymore.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to be in on Meyer.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've just been, you know, I like, I've always liked Meyer, you know, and as a Red Sox fan living here in Maine, I've seen, I saw a lot of him in AA when he was healthy.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I've just never been as high on him as I think most are, I think I'd say I'm a little bit lower than the consensus on Meyer.
[SPEAKER_01]: I said, I still see a solid power bat in there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't see, you know, more than like a 250 average.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's never got this kind of run a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: really will need that power to be there and the average at least not to be detrimental to your vending teams.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I don't think he's ever a starting caliber guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe a decent corner on the other, but I just don't want to see him kind of rising above that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, another guy that I hate show me you could say healthy first of foremost.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a good thing with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I completely agree with you and you know, just to put the, to put the with rates into context to 47.9 against breaking in 40.8 against boss speed.
[SPEAKER_00]: This, this is nothing new, especially coming
[SPEAKER_00]: the air poll rate at 51.7% was positive and you know I do think that maybe a 20, 25, from run guys and play but I just don't I think it's just too big of an unknown right now is you know what kind of what kind of ratios is that going to come with?
[SPEAKER_00]: Is he going to hit enough to play every day?
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think the I don't think the stolen bases are ever going to be an above average tool in his profile and so
[SPEAKER_00]: I think right now it is kind of see a low 700's OPS player, maybe a guy you can get into your corner and feel it spot if you make enough contact to reach his power upside, but I think there's just too many red flags here right now for me to be taking him on as a centerpiece in a rebuild or even in a deep relief, be comfortable as him as my starting short stop or my starting third baseman.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: And another thing too, like, I think his level of power is, I think comparable to like, Andrew Benham-Tendi back in the day where it's like, it's above average left-handed power, but we've seen those types of guys that are good, but not great lefty power guys, really be limited at, you know, Fenway just because, you know, yeah, you've got pesky poles, which is like five feet from the plate, but after that, right field is just way out there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: most the right field is actually pretty pretty deep.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, you saw I've been attending never really getting to, you know, more than like those 15 to 18 home or seasons, you know, with the red socks for a he left town.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, kind of wonder if that limits, you know, my or as well, because it's, it's not big poppy power, you know, it's not mobile on power.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not Adrian Gonzalez.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not even like a trusted cast as so.
[SPEAKER_01]: I do wonder if you get slimmed it a little bit in that regard too, so you know, overall I'm just kind of, I'm not, I'm not out on him, but I'm not really in on him either.
[SPEAKER_00]: I completely agree.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just, I don't think there's a caring tool in this profile.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if we're looking at like a 30 to 35 home run guy, we'd be looking at it a little differently, or maybe if he had better OPP skills, but never had a walk rate above 10.5% in minor leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't think that translates to a guy who's going to give you a good enough OPP with his power.
[SPEAKER_00]: to be ever a starting third basement caliber guy, I do think he has lost enough shine to a point where the interest would be peaked if I can kind of get him in a rebuild for, you know, a non core piece or secondary secondary piece and a bigger package, as I mentioned, but I just don't think right now he's a guy that I would be
[SPEAKER_00]: Clinging too closely onto his minor league numbers and I think that the red flags are big enough where I'm kind of very hesitant here and kind of in why I have them kind of around that voice Lewis range is like the health is a big question mark the the width rates are a big question mark there's maybe some power there, but I just don't see a ceiling of the top 15 third baseman.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right there with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: And next guy up here, probably one of the more polarizing young players in the game right now for fantasy purposes, Jordan Lawler, who I think probably will want a bit third base this year, you know, with, you know, as far as obviously left via trade and the last season, I did hear some reports that they might want to give him some time in the outfield and in our incentive field specifically.
[SPEAKER_01]: in spring as well, though, I think Alec Thomas will be in that next two.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, that Jacob McCarthy is a member of the Colorado Rockies.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, I mean, Laura, and another, there's a trend here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, they're former top prospect with some injury concerns and just super inconsistent production.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, I think out of these three that we kind of talked about,
[SPEAKER_01]: I, in this range at least, I'd be probably the most willing to buy lullers because that elite speed is there, 98th percentile sprint speed last year, not a big power guy, but he showed enough power as a professional over the last few years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he could be like, you know, teens home run guy, like, maybe you're 15, give or take, maybe some years in the upper teens.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you can give me 15 and I think 30 plus deals is there, I think there's
[SPEAKER_01]: No, though he didn't want to show it last year, but when I suffered him in the minor leagues, I do think there's enough context skills to be, you know, a guy that hits like 260 or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if he can get to all of those kind of thresholds, I think there's still some value to be had here, but will he get there?
[SPEAKER_01]: Can he put it all together?
[SPEAKER_01]: Can he say, healthy?
[SPEAKER_01]: There's still a lot of question marks here, but I think there's more upside here than any of the two guys we just talked about, but what do you think here on Jordan Law or Owen?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: I completely agree with you.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the power has been kind of a bit overrated.
[SPEAKER_00]: The heart hit rate of 41.4% was the best in Tripoli and that was repeating it for the 30 year and a row.
[SPEAKER_00]: The EVs have been okay.
[SPEAKER_00]: The launch angles are good, which is kind of encouraging.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I do think you can get into that kind of upper teams level of power.
[SPEAKER_00]: The contact skills, the contact skills are pretty encouraging, like the zone contact,
[SPEAKER_00]: I won't never blow someone away, but I do think the limited chase is pretty good.
[SPEAKER_00]: Never had a chase rate above 24.0 in the minors, and that was 22.6 in his brief sample size in the MLB last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I just think with his tools, like I think,
[SPEAKER_00]: At worst, he's going to give you kind of average power, an average hit tool and 20 plus deals, so I'm not kind of quitting not quitting this tool set, I I'd agree he's probably the most the one I'd be most willing to buy right now and just over 100 m'll be played appearances to so I do think there's more upside to law or considerably more than someone like Marcel Meyer and someone that I'd be more willing to buy especially with the trade and McCarthy potentially opening up more centerfield reps for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I still have a couple shares of law.
[SPEAKER_01]: Or I'm just hoping, like, just say healthy and give me something here, show me that you have at least some value this season and beyond.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think the price tags pretty low right now if you don't have them, where if you want to take an upside risk, I mean, I think there's not a lot of, I mean, well, he's a risky player.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think given the low price tag, there's not a lot of risk in going after him because you'll be giving up a whole lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: If it works out to some degree, you know, maybe that that's a decent return on investment there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm not a, I'm not opposed.
[SPEAKER_01]: You only don't get Jordan ball right now, but I can also understand why a lot of people don't want to go out and get Jordan well, just because of everything we just mentioned on a downside, but.
[SPEAKER_01]: Still some fun upside as well if he puts it all together.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I think with where his kind of, where his kind of cost is right now, like I took a 54th, I want to say in the tool shed mock that we did a couple months back.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think even if we've kind of lowered the upside bar a bit in the past year or so, I do think it's still kind of a profile that I'd be willing to take a bet on.
[SPEAKER_00]: Always kind of have a, always feel more drawn to kind of good athletes with good speed who can give you at least average
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think I have him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't my prospect right, he's up in front of me right now, but I believe I have him somewhere around 45 to 50 in my prospect rankings right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's pretty pretty much right where you kind of the same range where you took him in that mock draft we did back in what was at October, November, I think we did that.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a couple months ago now.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's close out the show with our favorite buy at this third base position right now, maybe it's somebody we already talked about Owen or someone we haven't talked about, it can be a buy for variety of reasons and a breakout guy, I got this by low, whatever way you want to go with it, so who is your favorite buy at this third base position right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so my favorite buy right now, you know, not not just a cost, but just I think, you know, somebody who's been very overlooked by kind of, you know, loss of prospect shine and kind of people overlooking the surface numbers as Miguel Vargas with the white socks 2025 was really encouraging the.
[SPEAKER_00]: 8.9.7 average EV, 22.6 degree launch angle, which was one of the best in the league, doesn't chase much, 21.0 chase, the zone contact is good, just over a 6.5, a 2.4 average contact rate, swing strike rate, just over 8% and the year over year, the year over year quality contact improvements were also something that really stands out to me.
[SPEAKER_00]: The EV is up over 3.5 miles per hour, bail rate, over doubled.
[SPEAKER_00]: the ground ball rate was cut by 3% heart hit rate up 14% and I think really you combine all that with kind of the opportunity for playing time that he has in that lineup and Miguel Vargas is someone who I really think can be a major breakout in 2026 and
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if someone who could be a 25 plus home run bat, give you maybe 10 steals, and I think we'll give you good ratios to K-Raid just under 18% last year from remembering correctly.
[SPEAKER_00]: Definitely not as flashy as he was coming up as a prospect in the doctor's system, but just because of the oracles in, and because it's been a couple years since we've seen him as a top prospect status, I really do think Miguel Vargas can be a
[SPEAKER_00]: especially kind of where he's at in a lot of third-based ranks where he's at at his early 80-peat-mingo Vargas's a guide that I will have a lot of shares of in 2020-6.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I still like to think of Argus a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think definitely good value at this point with the prospect shine wearing off.
[SPEAKER_01]: You gotta feel firm though.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, I used kind of blocked to some degree with the Dodgers, I mean, who isn't what young player isn't blocked with the Dodgers.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then he finally gets freed, but he gets sent to the white socks in the middle of like, you know, like the worst season in the history of baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like,
[SPEAKER_01]: Man, now I got playing time, but I'm playing for this like 20, how many wins they had at your 36.
[SPEAKER_01]: I forget how many wins they had not a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so yeah, so you can go to see there's that, you know, that picture, you've, everyone's Bryson on social media where it's like him kind of like sitting in the corner of the dugout, just like looking completely defeated and like not wanting to be there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I get it, you know, maybe we've all played on some sports team at some level of, you know, our life where we just, it's a bad team.
[SPEAKER_01]: It kind of happens all of us at some point, but
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think there's still some decent skills there as you mentioned.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, maybe not like the flashes guy, but I think there's still some values.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like that pick lots.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to go with Jordan Westburg.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was kind of funny to actually just trade it him away.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I did I see League about what and I even a week ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it was I need to pitch and I had plenty of corner and fielders and I got I ended up getting a Pepeo and some of the players back.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I'm not a bad deal, but I like Jordan Westburg.
[SPEAKER_01]: I had a decent bit here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the guy that has, you know, been bit by the injury bug a little bit here, not to the extent of like, Royce Lewis or something like that, but has been limited each of the last two years, but went on the field.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been kind of consistently in that 260-ish range, not really sure he jumps up from that range, does he's a little bit below average, a contact rate guy, but doesn't really chase a lot, doesn't really strike out too much right on a league average key rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: but you know below average walk rate guys so probably never got to give you a high OPP but I think there's a 25 30 Homer bat here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean he's above average quality of contact guy 11 percent barrel rate he's been like the mid 40s percent hard hit rate each of his three years in the major leagues average EV over 90 miles now or each year as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, up until last year, you know, the angles were pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, pull rate, pull air rate only 12%, but before that, he was like 19 and a half, and then 24 and a half.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I still think there's a 2530 home or bat there with a 260 year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So average, you know, decent amount, like 75 plus runs and RBI, you know, still a good young up and coming, Baltimore line up there, and it seems to say healthy, but still only 26 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: value is going to take it a little bit of a hit.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's a solid value by right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he could still be a back end.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, that's 7 to 9 range or so at this third base.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, I like the Westburg shout.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think kind of one, one, I'm kind of at where I'm.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if I can get him at a discount with the injury, he's had all definitely buy him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's though.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Westburg, one thing I was considering him for mine as well, but one thing that kind of made me pass is I just think he's kind of still firmly in that kind of back end top 10 of third basement.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm just kind of not quite sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: I see the ceiling for him to rise a few spot in those ranks yet, even given the kind of weakness of the position.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm there with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's going to be a fight, but I think back in top 10, I think is a fair spot where he could settle into for sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'd love to see them run him more, especially with his sprints feet, because I think if we're looking at a guy who can be a close to 20 home on guy with a decent average, won't give you the best OVP, but if you can get kind of the steel almond into his game, a 9th percentile sprints beat of 29 miles per hour last year, I think that enhances his profile a lot for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then then you can probably get him closer, maybe they kind of make Helgarcia, then kind of closer to the Addison barger and Matt Shaw and Donisie
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's giving me like five to 10.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this stuff we possible for Westburg.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not even asking for 15, 20 though, to be great, but it's giving me like five to 10.
[SPEAKER_01]: Give me something.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, let's be there.
[SPEAKER_01]: But all right, that's gonna wrap us up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, and thank you so much for joining me to talk about the hot corner here.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want you to let everyone know what they can find you and what are you going on right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for having me, it was a great discussion on an otherwise fairly grim position in fantasy.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can find me on X at Owen Underscore, FPD.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll have a lot coming out in the next few weeks, especially kind of FYPD ranks a lot of FYPD content.
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of kind of early draft calls content that I've been putting out on my X.
[SPEAKER_00]: Have a lot of threads coming up, a couple that are very excited about that I will be sharing in the coming days.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you give me a fall there, post all my work there, and we'll have kind of more ranks out in positional ranks and a top 100 out close for the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Awesome, everyone.
[SPEAKER_01]: Definitely follow Owen over on Twitter slash x again, Owen underscore FBB.
[SPEAKER_01]: Does a lot of great work there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll be back with you again later this week with short stop prospect rankings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Have a great guest lineup for that episode as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But until then, everyone take care.