[SPEAKER_00]: Make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners.
[SPEAKER_00]: One minute, you're up half a minute and soybeans and the next bull.
[SPEAKER_00]: Your kids don't go to college and they've redesessed your fence here with me.
[SPEAKER_01]: The revolution starts now, starts.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have to pass the bills so that you can find out what is in it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Turn those machines back off!
[SPEAKER_01]: You are about to enter the Peter ship show.
[SPEAKER_01]: If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the last stand on Earth.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Peter ship shall be solved.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know when they decided that they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness.
[SPEAKER_01]: Your money.
[SPEAKER_01]: Your stories.
[SPEAKER_01]: Your freedom.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Peter ship shall.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hello, everybody.
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome for another live episode of the Peter shift show podcast and I want to start off today's podcast by talking about the precious metals they had another spectacular week this week.
[SPEAKER_00]: We haven't quite finished the month yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: We got a couple more days next week to finish out the month of September and the third quarter.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, I expect Monday and Tuesday to be strong days to finish out the quarter.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think a lot of portfolio managers are going to be scrambling to add some gold and silver and mining stocks to their portfolios just to window
[SPEAKER_00]: for the quarter because they've been so strong, you kind of don't want to explain to your clients while you don't have anything in the metal's market.
[SPEAKER_00]: Why don't have any exposure?
[SPEAKER_00]: So gold closed today at about 3,760, it sold off towards the end of the day.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was above 3780 going into the last hour.
[SPEAKER_00]: We kind of sold off at the back end of the day.
[SPEAKER_00]: But um, you know, the absolute high though was set on Tuesday.
[SPEAKER_00]: So gold hit it's all time record high earlier in the week on Tuesday.
[SPEAKER_00]: It didn't quite get up there today.
[SPEAKER_00]: It almost hit 3,800.
[SPEAKER_00]: It came less than 10 bucks.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe even less than $5 from 3,800.
[SPEAKER_00]: Silver, however, just kept on chugging along, making new highs pretty much every day of the week.
[SPEAKER_00]: It closed this week above $46.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it traded in today, a new high going back for about, I don't know, 14 years or so.
[SPEAKER_00]: It got to 46, 50 and change on the day.
[SPEAKER_00]: Here are the numbers so far on Golden Silver Gold, up about a half a percent on the day, 2.2% on the week, 9% so far in September, and 43%
[SPEAKER_00]: this year, not for a year, but so far in 2025, silver, doing even better up about 2% today, 8% on the week, 8% in one week, 17% in the month of September.
[SPEAKER_00]: And 59% so far for the year, 59%.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now of course, I don't talk as much about the other precious metals platinum and palladium.
[SPEAKER_00]: Although I have been talking about platinum a little bit more over the past year.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, I came out on this podcast, if you recall,
[SPEAKER_00]: when gold was above 3000 and platinum was below 1000 and I made a strong pitch that my listeners go to shift gold and buy platinum because I thought it was ridiculous that you could buy three ounces of platinum with a single ounce of gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: Platinum was up 3.3% today.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's up 12% this week, 19% on the month and 74% year to date, 74.
[SPEAKER_00]: Paladium also, not quite as good, but inching out gold, Paladium up 44% on the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: these are not normal gains and it's not like these gains are happening at least for gold at depressed levels because we started the year at record highs and now we're just adding to those record highs.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, I think platinum and silver were depressed in relation to gold,
[SPEAKER_00]: although silver, you know, at, you know, $30 or whatever it was to begin the year was still cheap compared to where it had been in the past, but it wasn't anywhere near a record.
[SPEAKER_00]: Gold was at a record and now it's keep setting new records.
[SPEAKER_00]: But this would not be happening if inflation were well contained.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if we really were headed back to 2% in two years,
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, inflation hadn't been beaten into submission the way Donald Trump claims, you know, every time he gives a speech now, you know, whether it's at the UN or whether it's at a Charlie Kirk's funeral.
[SPEAKER_00]: He talks about how inflation is dead and buried, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: How we've got the hottest economy in the world.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a greatest economy in the world.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we've got no inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, if we really had no inflation,
[SPEAKER_00]: Gold would not be doing this.
[SPEAKER_00]: Silver would not be doing this.
[SPEAKER_00]: So these are real world market indicators that there's a problem here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that is inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: These are inflation hedges.
[SPEAKER_00]: these precious metals are very sensitive to inflation expectations, people expect more inflation, they buy more gold and silver.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's people voting with their feet, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: They're walking away from dollars and they're putting their money where my mouth is and they're buying gold and silver.
[SPEAKER_00]: So this shows you that what Trump is trying to sell you and what the Federal Reserve is trying
[SPEAKER_00]: are not true.
[SPEAKER_00]: And when, by the way, talking about cons and, you know, people trying to sell you a bill of goods Bitcoin continues to drift lower.
[SPEAKER_00]: As I speak, it's barely holding 109,000, 109,400.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's been down on the week.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, it's still up on the year, but only 16%
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not much when you're talking about 43% up in gold and 59% up in silver, it can't even beat Ethereum, which is up 20% on the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: But both of these tokens are being dramatically outperformed by physical precious metals.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, again, I've talked about this.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm going to keep talking about it, because the Bitcoin community keeps ignoring it.
[SPEAKER_00]: But now Bitcoin is 22% below its August high, last month, priced in gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: So in terms of gold, from where it was at its peak, last month,
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin is 22% lower.
[SPEAKER_00]: That is an official bear market.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, if you go back to the Bitcoin peak of November of 2021, that's almost four full years ago, Bitcoin is 20% lower now than it was then.
[SPEAKER_00]: So despite all the hype,
[SPEAKER_00]: despite all the ETFs and the Bitcoin Treasury companies and the first Bitcoin president and the strategic Bitcoin reserve and all the Super Bowl ads and everything that Wall Street has thrown at you and the Trump administration, Bitcoin is in a stealth bear market.
[SPEAKER_00]: and if Bitcoin is holding itself out as a digital version of gold, why is it in a bear market versus gold?
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's going to accelerate, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that Bitcoin could get clobbered in Q4.
[SPEAKER_00]: It could end up finishing the year below 100,000.
[SPEAKER_00]: And gold could end up finishing the year above 4000, you know, because I think we're going to see a lot of strength.
[SPEAKER_00]: One reason in particular, and I mentioned this,
[SPEAKER_00]: on the shift-gold market wrap last week.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so make sure you go to the shift-gold YouTube channel and subscribe to that one so you can get the market wrap because I got this news after I did my podcast here.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I didn't have it for this podcast, but I shared it with everybody at the shift-gold market wrap.
[SPEAKER_00]: But Morgan Stanley came out
[SPEAKER_00]: Tweet the 6040 portfolio.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now this is a Wall Street and a Bellweather a portfolio.
[SPEAKER_00]: 60% stocks, 40% bonds, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that's it.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the portfolio.
[SPEAKER_00]: They tweak it a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're really young, they might say, look, go 80% stocks and go 20% bonds.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're older, maybe go 60% bonds, 40% stocks, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: They tweak it depending on where you are, you know, towards your retirement goals.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's been the portfolio ever since I've been in this business.
[SPEAKER_00]: I got my license in 1987 coincidentally the year the stock market crashed.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's when I became a stock broker, the year the stock market crashed.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I didn't really enter the industry at the best time.
[SPEAKER_00]: Although, in hindsight, it was a great time to buy, but it was, you know, a difficult time, because a lot of stock brokers, you know, were waiting tables, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: They lost their jobs because of the 87 stock market crash.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's when I got into the business.
[SPEAKER_00]: But ever since then, it's been 60, 40, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Morgan Stanley said, you know what, we need to split that 40% that was in bonds.
[SPEAKER_00]: 50, 50 with gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: So Morgan Stanley came out and said, our portfolio is 60, 2020.
[SPEAKER_00]: 60% stocks, 20% bonds, and 20% gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: Unbelievable.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, it's about time.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason that Morgan Stanley is doing this is they're saying that we need an inflation hedge.
[SPEAKER_00]: And since stocks can also be viewed as an inflation hedge, although not all stocks are the same in that respect.
[SPEAKER_00]: But bonds are clearly the biggest victims of inflation, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: If you own bonds, inflation kills you.
[SPEAKER_00]: There is no hedge.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, Marcus Sally said, look,
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to have high inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: Forget about 2%, that's old news.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's never happening again.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're going to have high inflation, that's obvious.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so our clients need to hedge their bonds.
[SPEAKER_00]: So they need to buy gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is big.
[SPEAKER_00]: Not only is this a sell signal for bonds, because if you're a Morgan Stanley client and you've got 40% of your portfolio in bonds,
[SPEAKER_00]: And your advisor says, well, you've got to go down to 20%, how do you do that?
[SPEAKER_00]: You've got to sell half your bonds, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a sell single on bonds, a lot of those bonds are treasuries.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you have brokerage firms telling their clients to sell treasuries when the U.S.
[SPEAKER_00]: government has a record amount of treasuries that it needs to sell.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right, Houston, we got a big problem here.
[SPEAKER_00]: But all the money coming out of bonds is going into gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, again, the first time in my career, as a stock broker,
[SPEAKER_00]: Major firms are recommending gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now of course, I've been recommending gold the whole time.
[SPEAKER_00]: When gold was under $300 and I got my stock broker license, I would tell them people to buy gold, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I was, you know, the odd man out.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I'm still caught in the odd man, but I've got some company because it's just starting.
[SPEAKER_00]: And this trend is going to envelop all of Wall Street.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like a herd, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: People are afraid to go out on the limb.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nobody wants to be the first one to buy gold, because then if it goes down, you look like a fool.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, why'd you buy that?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why'd you put my money in that rock?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why'd you buy these gold stocks, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: You fire, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: People are afraid, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: But once somebody else,
[SPEAKER_00]: does it and it works and then somebody else does it and it works.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now you got to do it because now if gold goes up and it will go up and the mining stocks go up and you don't own them now your clients are going to say, hey, why did you have me in any gold?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why did you have me in any gold stocks?
[SPEAKER_00]: You're fired, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: So now the pressure is to put them in.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's why I think we're
[SPEAKER_00]: between now and the end of the year and probably between now and the end of the decade as more people jump into the water, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because other people are there and they're swimming and they're having a great time and you don't even have to put your toe in.
[SPEAKER_00]: You could just jump right in now because everything is great.
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is what's gonna happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[SPEAKER_00]: People need inflation hedges.
[SPEAKER_00]: Gold is now shown itself to be the inflation hedge.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's no longer going sideways.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even though it never really was.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's way out performing.
[SPEAKER_00]: The US stock market is down 70% priced in gold in the last 25 years.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, when you hear,
[SPEAKER_00]: the financial news keep talking about down making a record high down making a record high.
[SPEAKER_00]: No, it's not it keeps going down.
[SPEAKER_00]: Year to date, the Dow is down.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what, you know, over 20, 25% this year, that Dow is getting killed in terms of real money.
[SPEAKER_00]: Of this array did.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you don't know that if you price it in funny money.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's one of the reasons why Donald Trump wants inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he can make it look like the stock market is going up.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even though it's actually going down.
[SPEAKER_00]: See, everybody can feel richer because of inflation even though they're getting poorer.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, of course, if you don't have financial assets, you don't feel richer.
[SPEAKER_00]: You just are getting poorer and you know it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why a lot of people voted for Trump.
[SPEAKER_00]: because they were getting poor.
[SPEAKER_00]: The problem is they're going to get even poorer now that they voted for Trump, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because all the problems they thought Trump was going to solve, he's going to make worse.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm going to get to that in a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to continue talking about gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: But so you've got now Wall Street for the first time recommending gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: recommending gold stocks.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's not going to be any big pullbacks.
[SPEAKER_00]: You just got a buy gold in silver because now we've got a lot of company.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not just Peter Schiff's fans and a few other gold bugs that want to buy gold in silver, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: We got a lot of other people that want to buy and there's not that much of it.
[SPEAKER_00]: The same thing with mining stocks.
[SPEAKER_00]: The GDX,
[SPEAKER_00]: hit a new record high this week, not today, but earlier in the week.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's up 120% on the year, 18% so far, this month, one month and GDX is up more than the S&P was up all year.
[SPEAKER_00]: The GDXJ up 20% during the month of September.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, we got two more days to be up.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's up 125% on the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, Wall Street is not going to allow this to go unnoticed, especially as it's getting closer to the end of the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: These are the best performing stocks and they're still cheap.
[SPEAKER_00]: These tech stocks that people are buying are expensive and they're losing a ton of money.
[SPEAKER_00]: Money losing stocks.
[SPEAKER_00]: people are buying.
[SPEAKER_00]: Gold companies are making a killing.
[SPEAKER_00]: They have huge earnings.
[SPEAKER_00]: The earnings are growing.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a lot of value here, but we also have momentum.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you have momentum and you have value.
[SPEAKER_00]: See, the tech stocks, they just have momentum, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And that can collapse at any moment.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you've got a solid fundamental foundation behind what's happening in precious metals.
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is just going to continue.
[SPEAKER_00]: Next year could be even better than this year, even though this year is spectacular.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you've got to just, you've got to buy.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can't, you can't just procrastinate anymore.
[SPEAKER_00]: You've got to go to shift goals, buy gold and silver.
[SPEAKER_00]: Don't forget, buy some platinum.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's still got a lot of upside.
[SPEAKER_00]: Get into these mining stocks.
[SPEAKER_00]: Buy my gold fund, which again, E.P.G.I.X.
[SPEAKER_00]: is still lagging the GDX and GDXJ because we got a lot of private deals.
[SPEAKER_00]: We invested in in private companies that aren't even public.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so we're carrying those investments at cost.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now obviously they're probably worth a lot more than that, but it's not reflected in our price because they're not public yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: They will go public and then they could be worth a lot more than what we paid all of a sudden they're going to be there.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we got warrants.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're carrying the warrants at zero, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Warrants that are probably worth a lot of money, we're counting them as worth worthless.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, we got a great, great portfolio in the Europe-specific coal fund.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think we're up over 100%, but not as high as these numbers, because we own these stocks that are up that much, but we just own some other positions.
[SPEAKER_00]: And some of the smaller stocks that we think are real sleepers, you know, when they wake up, you know, they're going to outperform all these big stocks.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, it's the great time to be doing that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But a couple of other things that were said,
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that I mentioned on the shift gold market rap that were just so bullish for gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: You had Stephen Moran who was the president's economic advisor who's now sitting on the FOMC right as an insider for Trump.
[SPEAKER_00]: he was asked about the dollar and he said well the fed doesn't have a mandate on a strong dollar or any mandate on the dollar right we just have a mandate on price stability right well you're not gonna have stable prices if you don't have a stable dollar because stable prices are about the purchasing power of the dollar
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you have someone on the fed saying, hey, we don't care about the dollar's value, what does that mean?
[SPEAKER_00]: Dollars going down.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they don't care about the value of the dollar, they're not going to achieve their inflation mandate because all inflation is a reflection of the purchasing power of the dollar.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, maybe he was talking about just the exchange rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if the dollar buys fewer euros or fewer pounds or fewer any other currency, then everything that we import is going to be more expensive.
[SPEAKER_00]: And everything we make is going to get bit up by people who have those currencies and not bit us.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the exchange rate of the dollar is very important if you're trying to get price stability, and he basically couldn't care less about the dollar, which means it's going down.
[SPEAKER_00]: And also you have Steve Bannon.
[SPEAKER_00]: who was a, you know, a big Trump guy at one time, but he was out there saying, uh, uh, that the, the, the, the secretary of the treasury, um, should also be the chairman of the Federal Reserve, that it should be, that the same guy, right Scott Besson should wear both hats that Donald Trump should nominate Scott Besson.
[SPEAKER_00]: to be chair of the Federal Reserve, but not have him resigned as Secretary of the Treasury.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, this is really dangerous stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, today, I read, or I heard, that all of the living former FOMC chairs.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's not that many.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's Greenspan who still
[SPEAKER_00]: heads of the council of economic advisors under both Democrat and Republican administrations, they're urging the Supreme Court not to let Donald Trump fire at least a cook.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I said on this podcast, there is a real chance that they're going to do it.
[SPEAKER_00]: not because he can with respect to an independent Fed, if the Fed is independent, he can't.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if they rule that an independent Fed is unconstitutional and the Fed must be beholden to an elected official and that is the president, then the Supreme Court is going to validate the firing, but not only validate this firing, but any other filing,
[SPEAKER_00]: motivated by whatever reason the president wants and not just this president, but any future president.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think in this case, these Fed shares are right, even though I've criticized them pretty much the whole time they were in office.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're right on this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: a fed controlled by the president is even worse than a fed independently controlled by the chair of the board, even if they often work hand and glove, at least there was a pretense.
[SPEAKER_00]: If we drop the pretense, then the world's going to drop the dollar.
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, we've got a quick commercial, we're coming right back.
[SPEAKER_00]: So don't go away.
[SPEAKER_00]: A couple of things I want to talk about today before I get into some of the recent Trump new policy initiatives and the damage that they will do.
[SPEAKER_00]: First of all, Jerome Powell in a speech this week stated that he thought the stock market was fairly highly valued.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, it's usually a dangerous thing when the FOMC weighs in on the stock market.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it says something about the level of the stock market.
[SPEAKER_00]: They generally try to stay away from that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he admitted or acknowledged the elephant in the room.
[SPEAKER_00]: Although, by saying it's fairly highly valued,
[SPEAKER_00]: It's hard to say exactly what he meant.
[SPEAKER_00]: Did he mean it's fairly highly valued in that, it should be highly valued.
[SPEAKER_00]: That the high valuation is justified.
[SPEAKER_00]: They always try to say that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, this time it's different.
[SPEAKER_00]: The fundamentals are so great that it's fair.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're at a new permanent plateau.
[SPEAKER_00]: That was Irving Fisher in 1929.
[SPEAKER_00]: That he knew the stock market was high.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he said, well, it's permanently high because of this new era that we're in, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, there's never, it's never a new era.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the same era over and over again.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the stock market is highly valued.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe by fairly, he met moderately as opposed to extremely or slightly, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Fairly sounds like it's kind of in the middle of overvalued.
[SPEAKER_00]: But like, it is a bubble, it's not just overvalued.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, looking at what happened today with Nvidia and chatGPT.
[SPEAKER_00]: And since we're investing a hundred billion dollars in chat GPT, so we're going to buy stock in chat GPT, which is a private company still, but we're going to invest a hundred billion dollars.
[SPEAKER_00]: And guess what, chat GPT is going to agree to buy a hundred billion dollars worth of our stuff, worth of our GPUs.
[SPEAKER_00]: So in other words, Nvidia is just giving
[SPEAKER_00]: a chat GPT, the money to give back to it to buy it stuff, except because of the high multiple that Nvidia trades at, right, that by giving itself $100 billion, it increases the value because the stock is trading at about 40 times earnings.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it can give
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... it can invest a hundred billion dollars and increase it's uh... you know market cap by trillion or whatever multiply by forty a hundred billion by forty ten trillion out of what i mean but it can get some huge impact out of valuation by vendor financing but this is what happened during the dot com bubble with Cisco systems
[SPEAKER_00]: Cisco systems was loaning all of these startups money to buy all their routers and all the equipment that Cisco made and it was booking all this revenue because hey look at all this money yes it's making its own money its customers are paying with Cisco's own money it's just getting its own money back now in theory those were real sales assuming the companies that they
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, a lot of those sales that they reported never actually happened because the key in making a sale, right, is not making the sale.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's getting the money, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's getting paid, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Anybody can sell stuff if you don't have to collect the money.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, the real value is in the collection of the money.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, if Cisco sold all this stuff, but they never got paid, they never really made any sales.
[SPEAKER_00]: They gave away their stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the problem, too, with giving away all your stuff,
[SPEAKER_00]: is the owners, you know, when they don't give it back, they put it up for sale on the used market.
[SPEAKER_00]: So now you're competing with your own stuff, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because some of the stuff was probably not even taking out the box by a lot of these companies.
[SPEAKER_00]: They went bankrupt so fast.
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably even have a chance to install it.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the same thing could happen with a lot of these AI companies and companies that are buying all those equipment, they may not need it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it may be on the market, you know, as, you know, in the after market, people, you know, they can be selling GPUs they don't need.
[SPEAKER_00]: But this is all reminiscent of a huge bubble, if it walks like a bubble and it quacks, if it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a duck.
[SPEAKER_00]: That doesn't mean that AI isn't real,
[SPEAKER_00]: of it is real.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I, you know, you could tell just in my own interaction with AI, just in chat GPT and XAI, I think it's got phenomenal potential to really raise living standards and dramatically increase human productivity.
[SPEAKER_00]: All that is real.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that doesn't mean there's not a bubble here.
[SPEAKER_00]: The internet was real, but 90% of the stocks went bankrupt.
[SPEAKER_00]: How many auto companies?
[SPEAKER_00]: They were like 100 auto companies.
[SPEAKER_00]: After the automobile got invented, they're all gone.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's like two of them left, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Chrysler's gone now, but there's GM and Ford.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's it, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: There was a hundred of these things.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're gone, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: The automobile is still here.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was revolutionary.
[SPEAKER_00]: Same thing happened with railroads.
[SPEAKER_00]: All kinds of railroad companies formed that went bankrupt.
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, the railroad transformed the country,
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, but it didn't mean that all the railroad stocks made money for people who bought them.
[SPEAKER_00]: So clearly there's going to be a lot of money lost, but this is very different than the crypto bubble because the crypto bubble is just pure hype.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's nothing there.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's nothing behind it.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's nothing going to be left.
[SPEAKER_00]: All these cryptos are going bankrupt.
[SPEAKER_00]: Almost all these companies are going bankrupt.
[SPEAKER_00]: All this money is going to get lost.
[SPEAKER_00]: Massive a white belt.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's unfortunate that Donald Trump
[SPEAKER_00]: has been the cheerleader I mean this is why you don't want the government to pick winners and losers because they pick losers like the crypto industry the US government picked crypto and they're trying to make America the crypto capital the Bitcoin capital now they're doing it because their friends are getting rich caching out right the insiders are selling
[SPEAKER_00]: what pump and with Trump and his cabinet are pumping.
[SPEAKER_00]: The government is pumping.
[SPEAKER_00]: The insiders are dumping and the public is going to get left holding the bag.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's not just the investors who are going to lose a lot of money, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm not as upset about that as I am about the damage to the economy, all the resources that were squandering, the capital that were squandering, that we couldn't be investing productively.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, when people talk about all the resources, all the power, the trillions and trillions we're going to invest in AI, nobody talks about where's all back in it come from?
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to get the money.
[SPEAKER_00]: What are we going to stop doing?
[SPEAKER_00]: So we can fund that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, one thing we should stop doing is the entire crypto industry.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a complete waste.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if we're going to make an investment in AI that may pay off down the line, there's a short term cost to that.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have to go without stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have to give up stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know what he talks about all that.
[SPEAKER_00]: They just think it's just going to happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, it's not.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's massive inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's all it's going to happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why you're seeing these golden silver prices moving up, because people are just starting to appreciate.
[SPEAKER_00]: how much inflation we're going to have.
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, just anecdotally, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just reading the other day.
[SPEAKER_00]: So Disney raised the price of Disney plus by 20%.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, they raised their price a year ago, actually a little less than a year ago, was their last price hike.
[SPEAKER_00]: So in less than a year, they raised their prices 20%.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, does that happen in an environment of 2% or even 3% inflation?
[SPEAKER_00]: There's demand, but I mean, look at how much competition there is in streaming.
[SPEAKER_00]: There is so much content that you can buy.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if Disney is having a jack-up prices by 20%, I'm sure a big reason for that is rising costs.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not just making 20% more.
[SPEAKER_00]: is driving up these costs.
[SPEAKER_00]: And probably that 20% hike by Disney is closer to the real rate of inflation than what the government admits at 3%.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's as high as 20, but it may be closer than three.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, we got some inflation news that came out today.
[SPEAKER_00]: We got the personal income and spending numbers for August.
[SPEAKER_00]: and they pretty much came out right in line with expectation so i don't know that there was any movement in the market that was necessarily affected by it i mean maybe the market went up because it was a worse than expected right because everybody's always bracing for the inflation news to be worse than expected but even though it was as expected it's still bad right personal income was up point four on the month
[SPEAKER_00]: and spending was up 0.6, which was actually a little hotter than expected on the income and spending side, but on the price stuff, right, the PCE personal consumption expenditure.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, this is the Fed's favorite index, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's their favorite because it's the lowest, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: But the PCE on the month was up 0.3, which was expected.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's worse than
[SPEAKER_00]: year over year, up 2.7%, the rear of you mirror was up 2.6, now yes, everybody expected it to go up to 2.7, but it went up, it's not going down, why is the Fed cutting?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's favorite inflation measure is moving further above its 2% target.
[SPEAKER_00]: So why are they cutting rates?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why are they saying they're going to have more rate cuts?
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's worse when you look at the core, because apparently the core is the one they think is the most important.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the core was up 0.2.
[SPEAKER_00]: which was a little bit less than 0.3 from the prior month.
[SPEAKER_00]: But year over year, the core is up 2.9.
[SPEAKER_00]: The exact same is the month before 2.9.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's almost three.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're 50% above your target.
[SPEAKER_00]: Why the hell are you cutting rates?
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, as listening to this discussion on television, and people were acknowledging, they were saying, well, you know, we don't really need these rate cuts, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because we have this strong economy, and we got low unemployment, and we got a record stock market.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we don't really need the rate cuts.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, we only need them if you want to prevent the stock market from crashing.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to prevent the economy for imploding, because the only reason it's not is because these rate cuts are coming.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you may not think we need them.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's only because we're getting them that the stock market is at a record.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can't say, oh, look, we don't have to cut rates because the market said a record high.
[SPEAKER_00]: If we weren't cutting rates, it wouldn't be.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, the Fed should be hiking rates.
[SPEAKER_00]: Shouldn't be not only should it not be cutting rates, it should be hiking rates.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, so with the economy, in fact, the economy is already weak when they keep talking about the low unemployment number, that's all BS unemployment is high.
[SPEAKER_00]: The numbers aren't accurate.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: But even some of the numbers, like the use six number, at almost 8%, or 8.1, whatever, I think it's over 8%, Thai unemployment.
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, some more problems were announced just today.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, but actually, well, one of them was in today.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I want to talk about two.
[SPEAKER_00]: One of them is was announced a few days ago, uh, and, and that is, that, that, that Trump wants to, um, charge companies, a hundred.
[SPEAKER_00]: $1,000 for the H1B visas, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: This is to get a visa for a foreign worker to come in the US and work for your company, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: You gotta apply and get this visa to bring somebody in.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I forget what it costs to file the forms.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's not anywhere near 100 grand, but they want to make it now 100 grand, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And there was some talk about making it like retroactive to all the people that are already here, which would be massive.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's just for new people.
[SPEAKER_00]: You want to bring somebody in.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think there were some people in the Trump administration that talked about having to make the payment every year.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... but no now it's just like an upfront a payment but but this is not a good idea people think that uh... it's not fair that american companies are hiring foreigners they should be hiring americans look it'd be great if they hire americans but they they shouldn't be obligated to you forget in company is just a collection of individuals right let's just look at one individual right if i'm an employer
[SPEAKER_00]: No, I have an, I can hire whoever I want.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's my company, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: If you set up a company, you take all the risks.
[SPEAKER_00]: You put up all the capital.
[SPEAKER_00]: If the company goes bankrupt, you're the one that loses.
[SPEAKER_00]: In many cases when you start a business, you don't even make any money.
[SPEAKER_00]: You lose money for the first several years, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, and you're working harder than anybody.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if I want to hire somebody and risk my capital, paying somebody wages for a business that who knows if it's gonna succeed, it's nobody's business but mine who I hire.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just because I live in America, doesn't mean I owe some kind of patriotic duty to hire an American.
[SPEAKER_00]: If I can get a better deal hiring a Canadian, then I'm gonna hire the Canadian.
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, that's good for America too.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because if I am trying to maximize my profits, which is what any good entrepreneurs should do, if I can make more money by hiring a Canadian than an American, which I wouldn't do it, but I wouldn't hire the Canadian if it wasn't in the best interest of the company in my judgment.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so if hiring this Canadian is better for the company, it's better for the economy, it's better for the country, right, to do that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But when Trump says, oh, this is terrible.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's force American companies, the higher American workers, not only does that take away the rights of the employer who should be allowed to hire wherever they want, find the best man or woman for the job, but it actually weakens the underlying economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a negative thing for the economy, but also here's how it's going to backfire.
[SPEAKER_00]: See, these guys, they never think about the unintended consequences of their stupid regulation.
[SPEAKER_00]: So let's say I'm a small employer, and I was gonna bring some guy in to the country.
[SPEAKER_00]: But now it's gonna cost me a hundred grand to bring him in.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I'm not gonna bring him in, but I wanna hire him.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, stay in Thailand, stay in Indonesia.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just work remotely.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll pay you as an independent contractor.
[SPEAKER_00]: You do your work from, you know, from Thailand, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, well now instead of the guy moving to America, we're now he has to pay taxes, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And he was going to pay some taxes on that money.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, now he's not going to pay any taxes on that money.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just going to expense it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to deduct it here on my taxes and he's not going to pay anything in America.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to pay taxes in Thailand or wherever he happens to be working.
[SPEAKER_00]: But now if he came here, well, maybe he has to rent an apartment.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the landlord would have made some money.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he's going to go out and eat and restaurants.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to start to spend his paycheck.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, the waiters make a little extra money.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he's the money stays in the US economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: It circulates here in the US, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you force me not to bring them in because I don't want to pay the $100,000 fee, then all that money just stays in another country.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's actually going to be harmful to the economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: to prevent employers from bringing in foreign workers.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, Trump will say, well, they're going to hire a market.
[SPEAKER_00]: No, they're not.
[SPEAKER_00]: If the better worker is abroad, they'll just hire them and just let them stay there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is not going to work.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's going to end up costing jobs.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's we're going to lose jobs as a result of this.
[SPEAKER_00]: Look, the best way to have a prosperous economy is to have a free economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Let employers give them the freedom.
[SPEAKER_00]: to hire who they want to hire and let them negotiate the terms of these employment agreements without the government interfering.
[SPEAKER_00]: But no, Trump doesn't want to do that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Trump wants to micromanage.
[SPEAKER_00]: He wants to prevent companies from hiring foreign workers and force them against their will, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: To hire an American worker, even if the American worker is less productive, is more expansive, a worse hire.
[SPEAKER_00]: Most employers, they got nothing against Americans.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like they don't want to hire Americans.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe it's a pain to ask to bring a guy in from a foreign country.
[SPEAKER_00]: You wouldn't do that if it didn't make sense economically.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if it makes sense economically, why would the president want to stop you from doing that?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because the result is going to be less than optimal as far as the economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're hurting the economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, speaking about hurting the economy,
[SPEAKER_00]: Trump also unveiled a bunch of new tariffs today, one is a hundred percent tariff on pharmaceuticals.
[SPEAKER_00]: These, I think these are branded products, not the generic ones, but if it's a brand or some
[SPEAKER_00]: But then he said, well, but if the company has a U.S.
[SPEAKER_00]: facility, or is breaking ground on a facility, it won't apply.
[SPEAKER_00]: So a lot of the big European pharmaceutical companies have a presence here, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't make all their drugs here, but they make something here.
[SPEAKER_00]: But obviously, what's going to happen again, unintended consequences?
[SPEAKER_00]: If I am a drug company and I don't have a U.S.
[SPEAKER_00]: presence at all, okay, now I've got a break ground on some facility that I'll probably never complete.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, who knows what I'll actually do, but I just got a convinced Trump that I'm going to build something and then I don't have to deal with the terrorists.
[SPEAKER_00]: But obviously, Americans are going to have to pay the cost of this wasted construction product that's, you know, project that's never going to be completed.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... but there will be ways of getting around in the course you know every time trump has tariffs there's a long line of companies that want to grease his palm to get into an exemption from those tariffs right at such crony capitalism
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... when you do this because you basically here's a tariff but you know if you want to if you want an exemption you know what do you got for me right this is you know the whole white houses for sale uh... you know and it's not necessarily the u.s.
[SPEAKER_00]: government that gets the money can be the trump family that benefits uh... from giving out these uh... tariff exemptions but it didn't stop at farm acuticals
[SPEAKER_00]: And Trump, by the way, is justifying all this as a national security, national security threat.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he imposed 50% tariffs on, like, kitchen cabinets, and I forget whether it's
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, why kitchen cabinets?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, why not bathroom cabinets?
[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way,
[SPEAKER_00]: Who's to say, if I buy a cabinet, maybe the guys that sell kitchen cabinets will start marketing them as bathroom cabinets so that they don't have to be tariffed.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just say, hey, this is for the bathroom, wink, wink.
[SPEAKER_00]: I've got these great bathroom cabinets.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then if you label them bathroom cabinets, they're not going to be tariffed as opposed to kitchen.
[SPEAKER_00]: The same thing with the furniture, a postered furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: So what about unapulsed furniture?
[SPEAKER_00]: That doesn't get a tariff.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to start selling the upholstery separate from the furniture, which is not that hard, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: You say you're going to buy a couch or you'll import a couch and it'll come with just cushions, but there'll be no upholstery, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Around it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they can sell the upholstery separately, just as upholstery, which there's no tariffs on upholstery.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no tariffs on upholstery in furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: just a poster furniture so you break it up and you ship it in pieces and then all you have to do is shove the pillows into the a poultry and zip it up right I mean so obviously there's going to be ways around these tariffs but they're going to benefit the Americans who pay the tariffs.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, but now yeah, now we got a hassle with I got to buy my my sofa here and I got to buy the the poultry over there and I got to put it all together.
[SPEAKER_00]: Look, it's going to be a pain in the ass and it's going to cost more, you know, there's a bunch of wise guys, you know, on my, on my ex account.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I point this out, you know, the Americans, you know, furniture is going to be more expensive, kitchen cabinets are going to be more expensive, you know, Trump is complaining.
[SPEAKER_00]: that, you know, it costs too much to buy a house.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, why is he making a more expensive to make the kitchen, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Houses have kitchens, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, you buy a house.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's no good without furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: Why does he want to make the furniture more expensive, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because you put a tariff on furniture, furniture is going to cost more money.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so these wise guys are coming on my, my account, and they're commenting and they're saying, well, idiot, it's a simple solution.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just buy American, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the solution.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, if it was that simple, people would already be buying American furniture, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, most of the furniture we buy is imported.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's not because people want that, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, let's say a lot of our furniture comes from Indonesia, comes from China.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like, you know, you buy a new house and, you know, the family gets together, hey, let's go out and buy some Chinese furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nobody says that, nobody, nobody sets out.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like Chinese food.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, you can be hungry and wanna go out and get Chinese food.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure, yeah, I feel like Chinese tonight.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, that makes sense.
[SPEAKER_00]: But nobody feels like buying Chinese furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: They just wanna buy furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[SPEAKER_00]: If it happens to be made in China, what happens to be made in China?
[SPEAKER_00]: Who cares?
[SPEAKER_00]: Who even looks at the label?
[SPEAKER_00]: People go to a furniture store.
[SPEAKER_00]: They sit on it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[SPEAKER_00]: They see if it's comfortable.
[SPEAKER_00]: They look at it and they check the price tag.
[SPEAKER_00]: Not to find out where it was made, but to see what it cost.
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the reason in that Americans are buying furniture made in China is because it's a better value.
[SPEAKER_00]: If there was an American sofa, right next to that Chinese sofa, that was a better value, didn't he would buy that?
[SPEAKER_00]: And it wouldn't have to have an American flag on it, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: If they liked it better, they would buy it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, why are they not buying American furniture?
[SPEAKER_00]: But because it's too expensive, or it's, you know, now, we sell some furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have a feeling that for very high-end furniture, America can probably compete in that arena.
[SPEAKER_00]: So maybe the very rich by some American-made furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, not because they're out to buy American-made furniture, but because they can afford it, because it's very expensive.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the terrorists on furniture to the extent that they don't get around it the way I'm saying, like, split up, sell the upholstery separate from the front of the furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, people could just buy wooden furniture where they can buy other material that doesn't have upholstery, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: People will change their buying habits in order to not pay these tariffs, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, the government doesn't think about that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the tariffs will hit the poor and the middle class, because that's who's buying the Chinese furniture and the Indonesian furniture, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because that's where the masses, they are delivering the lower price goods.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even though they have to ship them across the ocean, they can still get the stuff here cheaper than we can do to ourselves.
[SPEAKER_00]: So when these wise guys are on my exit count, saying, well, just by American, that doesn't solve the problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, in many cases, buying American will end up costing you more than pay in the tariff.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the solution is not about, hey, let's make it so expensive to buy foreign furniture or foreign cabinets.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's make it so expensive that you have to buy American.
[SPEAKER_00]: No, let's fix the problem of why we can't manufacture the furniture in a competitive way anyway.
[SPEAKER_00]: Why can't we make a product that stands on its own?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why do we need to be protected?
[SPEAKER_00]: And you might say, well, because of all that cheap labor, look, that's BS.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because once upon a time in America, we paid much higher wages, relatives of the rest of the world, then we've paid now.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we had a trade surplus in just about everything, including furniture.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we were able to produce better and cheaper furniture in the past.
[SPEAKER_00]: Why can't we do it now?
[SPEAKER_00]: The reason is we have a lot more government now than we had then.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have a lot less actual savings because interest rates have been too low.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we don't invest in the infrastructure, the plant and equipment.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... in order to be able to produce we've been relying like a crutch on the dollars reserve status to buy all the stuff that the rest of the world makes and so that's why we had we're all you know set up uh... to distribute all this stuff that is made
[SPEAKER_00]: around the world.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you can't go cold turkey just by erecting a tariff, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And yes, people are thinking, oh, but the tariffs haven't harmed us yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: Look, we haven't seen anything in inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, one of the reasons is because you're looking at the CPI instead of actual prices.
[SPEAKER_00]: But also, there is a lag here, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Companies just started paying these tariffs.
[SPEAKER_00]: Remember, there was a lot of merchandise that was imported before the tariffs kicked in.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so they
[SPEAKER_00]: But now the companies get the tariffs they've already paid the cost they have to figure out what are we going to do how we're going to get this money back We can raise raise prices maybe we'll lay off some of our workers will cut costs are already doing some of that one of the reasons why the labor market is weak
[SPEAKER_00]: But prices are going to go up.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to go way up.
[SPEAKER_00]: And people say, well, but if you raise prices, then people won't buy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, exactly.
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of people won't buy, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: That's why you're going to see a huge downsizing of the retail industry.
[SPEAKER_00]: Companies are going to raise their prices dramatically, and they're going to lose a lot of sales.
[SPEAKER_00]: And what they're going to have to do is find a new equilibrium to be profitable with lower volume and much higher prices.
[SPEAKER_00]: And what that's going to mean is fewer employees because they have fewer customers.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, so the whole American standard living is going to be impacted by these runaway deficits, by these tariffs, you're looking at the rear view mirror at the CPI, look forward, look at gold, look at silver, these are forward looking indicators.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, by the way, Trump justified these tariffs, right, because again,
[SPEAKER_00]: tariffs need to be imposed by Congress, they are taxes, but Trump is evoking national security, national security.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it is a national security threat that we are buying all of these imported kitchen cabinets.
[SPEAKER_00]: What the hell does cabinets in the kitchen have to do with national security?
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, but I mean, do we think that Chinese are bugging these these cabinets and we, you know, Americans have to be concerned that they're spying on us through our kitchen cabinets or what?
[SPEAKER_00]: Do they think that if we have a war that there's going to be a need that the troops are going to need new cabinets for their kitchens because they're going to go off to war.
[SPEAKER_00]: They need a comfortable chair to sit in when they're trying to strategize, you know, the next, you know, invasion plan.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so we need to make sure that that that lazy boy or that comfortable chair.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's got, you know, is made in America.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I mean, this is nonsense.
[SPEAKER_00]: How do you justify furniture and cabinets for a national security?
[SPEAKER_00]: a risk.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, unless you're saying, well, manufacturing is a national security threat, we need to manufacture, well, then why are you just saying, kitchen cabinets?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why not all cabinets?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why not everything?
[SPEAKER_00]: Why not have a massive tariff on everything if the emergency is that we don't make anything.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now we have to make everything here.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the
[SPEAKER_00]: making products here, because the reason we stopped making products here wasn't because we didn't have tariffs.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so erecting tariffs isn't going to reverse the damage that have nothing to do with tariffs.
[SPEAKER_00]: And unfortunately,
[SPEAKER_00]: The policy is the really economic policies that Trump is promoting, which is massive money printing, huge government spending, massive increase in the size of U.S.
[SPEAKER_00]: government, and the burden that it places on the U.S.
[SPEAKER_00]: economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: All of this is going to undermine.
[SPEAKER_00]: our ability to manufacture it's going to make us even more dependent on the imported goods that are now even more expensive because we're paying tariffs on top but what's really going to exacerbate it is going to be the dollar and to me you know I don't know what's holding the dollar up
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, obviously against gold, nothing because the dollar keeps sinking just about every day in terms of gold.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that also means that the euro is sinking, the pound is sinking, the yen is sinking, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: People all around the world are seeing their currencies lose purchasing power measured in gold and pretty much everything else.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the exchange rate of the dollar has just kind of been holding on to its initial liberation day losses, and it hasn't just fallen over.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's going to happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you could see a big drop in the dollar in the fourth quarter of 2020 this year, 2025.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's going to really accelerate the increase in domestic inflation that we're really going to see in a big way in 2026.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now some people might say it's just the lag defects of tariffs and they may try to just dismiss it as being transitory or a word that means transitory but without saying transitory.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the markets are going to see through that, and inflation is just going to run out of control.
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, the one other thing I did want to mention from this week is Trump rolled out the gold card and now the platinum card.
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess Trump didn't realize that the gold is more expensive than platinum because the platinum card is the more expensive card to buy.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's now the platinum card that gets you out of your global taxes.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that one I think is five million, the gold card at one million doesn't get you out of any taxes.
[SPEAKER_00]: It just fast tracks you to you a citizenship.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think a lot of people are going to bite to pay a million dollars to come and pay our high taxes.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's going to be nearly as many takers.
[SPEAKER_00]: There may be a few takers of the platinum card, but only if they moved to Puerto Rico.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because all that exempts you from is your worldwide income and not your domestic income.
[SPEAKER_00]: Although again, I don't even know that that's constitutional.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that the US government can exempt taxpayers.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're here in the United States and Americans are taxed on your worldwide income, how are they going to say that, well, these Americans, you know, they're here.
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't have to pay taxes on their worldwide income.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... but they would still have to pay tax on their u.s.
[SPEAKER_00]: income and by the way all of your capital gains are u.s.
[SPEAKER_00]: source so even if you buy a platinum a card and you come here
[SPEAKER_00]: And you trade stocks, you're paying capital gains tax.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you happen to live in Puerto Rico, you can get zero capital gains.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I have a feeling that I could have a lot more neighbors here in Puerto Rico.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not coming from the States, but they're coming from around the world because if they want to live in the US and they want to have a lot of capital gains,
[SPEAKER_00]: If they make Puerto Rico their home base and they spend, you know, 1803 days a year here in Puerto Rico, they not only will they get out of their worldwide tax, but they'll get out of all their capital gains tax.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they have a business, if they run it from Puerto Rico, they'll pay 4% tax on that as opposed to paying whatever high rate of tax that is, they operate out of the states, because most of the other countries that have these golden visas have lower taxes.
[SPEAKER_00]: than the US.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's why people are going there.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going there to escape high taxes to get lower taxes.
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the US doesn't really have that to offer when it comes to the domestic tax rates, which are, which are pretty high.
[SPEAKER_00]: But anyway, that's it for today's podcast.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to now do a special one just on gold and silver.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... and so if you're not again if you're not uh... subscribing to shift goals uh... youtube channel make sure and subscribe i think we've bumped up for five thousand subscribers last week so we're we're getting there you know we're still not at six hundred thousand i think we're now above five hundred ninety
[SPEAKER_00]: 5000 on my main channel.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm still trying to get to this 600,000 subscriber.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're not a subscriber, join the club and get your friends to join the club.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is like a personal challenge.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, maybe the YouTube gods have been working against me, but I want to see if I can if I can get 600,000 subscribers, but we've got a long way to go at the Schiff Gold channel.
[SPEAKER_00]: So go over there, go to Schiff Gold, the Pice of Gold and Silver, go to E-Pam.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... and you know open up in account uh... you don't be mad that you missed out on the money so far this year this is just the beginning as far as i'm concerned uh... there's a lot more coming and if you were a client and you're one of the few people the unfortunate people who cashed out last year that was a big mistake
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's an even bigger mistake not to come back because I think the money that we're going to make in the future is a lot more than the money you missed out on so far in the recent past so don't compound the mistake of getting out by not getting back in and again go to shift sovereign sign up for the free newsletter at at shift sovereign.com we're putting out some really really good content and I don't want anybody.
[SPEAKER_00]: to miss it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, if you liked this video, make sure to give it a thumbs up, leave me a comment and if I have time, I'll ask for a few.
[SPEAKER_00]: Bye for now and have a great weekend.