[SPEAKER_00]: All right, welcome back to another episode of the baseball America fantasy podcast is your host, Jeff Ponce.
[SPEAKER_00]: My regularly scheduled host, Dylan White, can't make it this week.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's preparing for the snow.
[SPEAKER_00]: The winter's coming up there in Canada.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's got to reinforce his windows or whatever it is.
[SPEAKER_00]: I made all that up.
[SPEAKER_00]: That means that I have Jacob Rodner, right in solo, in the co-host seat.
[SPEAKER_00]: What's going on, Rodden?
[SPEAKER_00]: How are you, man?
[SPEAKER_01]: Do well, you know, this has become like my second home on the baseball America podcast agenda.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm glad to be back.
[SPEAKER_01]: I miss Dylan though, but this is always fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is like my reprieve from college baseball coverage.
[SPEAKER_00]: Exactly, we can talk a whole bunch of topics, prospects, big leagues, all of it.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's funny because I was in a kickoff to show
[SPEAKER_00]: Blue Jays, making their run, Dodgers making their run.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe discuss a little bit about this tiger's collapse.
[SPEAKER_00]: Though I haven't been watching that game, I have the Binghamton eerie game three on because I'm invested in this series after spending last week out in Western Pennsylvania, seeing Altune in eerie.
[SPEAKER_00]: A couple of times that was a fun one.
[SPEAKER_00]: I got to take in my first game at PNC as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I talked to you guys about that.
[SPEAKER_00]: That was a
[SPEAKER_00]: That was a blast.
[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't I miss Paul screens didn't see Bob a Chandler.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think get any the interesting arms don't bitch color But you know, I got Yohano V8o.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'll take it.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is what it is.
[SPEAKER_00]: That said, we're going to talk about Arizona folly We have the rosters now.
[SPEAKER_00]: We've reviewed it a ton was inspired by this inspired a little bit to do this podcast by
[SPEAKER_00]: a good friend Nate handy over at the Dynasty dugout with Chris Cleg.
[SPEAKER_00]: He runs an AFL fantasy league.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's done it for a few years.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think maybe four years now.
[SPEAKER_00]: I finally got invited this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's only hitters and we only draft four hitters.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, because it's limited number of teams, of course.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, you only have so many players.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think this works.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of fun.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we could talk about some of my picks, but I think generally this is a great time to kind of take a look at some of the names that are going to be out there.
[SPEAKER_00]: And think about who could potentially be breakouts because this is.
[SPEAKER_00]: In event, a league that does impact fantasy value going into the off season.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of guys that have had good AFL Zire hope as a perfect example last year that they can sort of, you know, skyrocket in terms of their prospect stock, their dynasty stock.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you also have first pitch Arizona that's put on by baseball HQ, which is a great event that have gone to a few times.
[SPEAKER_00]: It won't be out there this year sticking around New England.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to get some sun in October, unfortunately.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we got a couple guys out there, though, of course, Hazes can all live out in Arizona and then Josh Norris Fair is going to be out in Arizona for two weeks doing his thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's, you know, that's great.
[SPEAKER_00]: But first pitch Arizona,
[SPEAKER_00]: Baseball HQ, they bring a lot of the industry big big names, heavy hitters out there, and they go to the fall stars games.
[SPEAKER_00]: So they see a lot of these guys, they're going to games over the three or four days that they're out there, and some of these big performances, you know, can turn people, you know, all of a sudden they fall in love.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, Matt Mervers was when a couple of years ago that I think came out of AFL with some higher stock than maybe he had previously had.
[SPEAKER_00]: So sometimes it's good.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes it's bad.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jacob Marcy being one that, you know, with your marlins broke out this year in a big way.
[SPEAKER_00]: When he was a Padre's prospect, he was out in AFL.
[SPEAKER_00]: Had a really good performance big season.
[SPEAKER_00]: Might have won the MVP even.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, look at him.
[SPEAKER_00]: Pretty good sleeper.
[SPEAKER_00]: You could have picked up in the offseason that year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're going to go through some of our favorite sleeper names.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to kick it off at the top though with the big names.
[SPEAKER_00]: The guys that we all know.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're going to get those out of the way from the rip.
[SPEAKER_00]: kind of won't be even, you know.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think, you know, Connor Griffin are one A, are minor league player of the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's just so special when I think from a fantasy perspective to he just so many things really, really well.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think the ETA on him and McGonaggo is necessarily all that different that both of these guys could potentially break camp with their respective clubs.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you have any thoughts on McGonaggo.
[SPEAKER_00]: I almost wonder long season playoffs
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a gamer, but how long he's out there in AFL?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, it could be sort of like a two week thing, and then he's he's home for the rest of the the off season, but we shall see maybe he wants to get a little extra sun instead of going back to back to cold Pennsylvania worries from.
[SPEAKER_00]: Where do you thoughts on McGonagall?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, hard not to love the bat, we talk about this a lot in the baseball America slacks or shout out to our colleagues, but maybe the most, one of the most advanced hitters in minor league baseball right now, I mean, am I wrong in saying that?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that going overboard?
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think so.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that this is probably somebody who's going to end up being massively productive for the tigers as soon as early next season and I don't know that AFL is going to do a whole bunch for me in terms of like yeah confirming or taking away from that like I feel really good about
[SPEAKER_00]: who can keep up here.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of full stop, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think that that's probably like the poster child of, you know, prospect headed to AFL who has nothing to prove, but just like an opportunity to get better and be seen playing more baseball, which is always fun for nerds like us.
[SPEAKER_01]: But like, at the end of the day, I'm not
[SPEAKER_01]: Super invested in Kevin McGonagall's AFL performance.
[SPEAKER_01]: If it's really, you know, awesome, it confirms a lot of the things that we've talked about all year long.
[SPEAKER_01]: If it's terrible, I'm not going to sit here the next time I'm on the fantasy podcast to be like stay away from Kevin McGonagall, disastrous fall league performance.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's one of my favorite minor leagueers out there right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm really excited to see what next year looks like.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that the performance even in double layer he hit was at 250 was like good and and still reasonably impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: His eyes outstanding.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a very patient hitter and yeah, I like you just kind of said.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm excited to see him get more reps.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm also not putting like a significant amount of stock in it either way.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think that's exactly it, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, let's not go, let's not go crazy here.
[SPEAKER_00]: What he doesn't AFL is not going to be important.
[SPEAKER_00]: What's so ever, but obviously, I think, just from like a pure hitting perspective, he's the most optimized, great hitter in the miners.
[SPEAKER_00]: And what do I mean by that?
[SPEAKER_00]: Just he does everything really, really well.
[SPEAKER_00]: Physically, there's some physical tools that Connor Griffin has that McGonagall will just never have.
[SPEAKER_00]: completely different bodies.
[SPEAKER_00]: One guy's six four, the other one's probably five, seven, five, eight.
[SPEAKER_00]: But in terms of contact all around the zone, elite swing decisions.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the ability to backspin the ball to his pull side consistently for a smaller guy, even though he has pretty good EVs, above average to plus EVs, which for age and level of all that stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the clean barrels and the consistency of clean barrels and being able to pull the ball and sort of do all the things he needs to do.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then just a really high level of awareness defensively we don't care so much in fantasy right like I don't think McDonald's going to stick at shortstop long term that's not to say he won't.
[SPEAKER_00]: qualify as a short stop because he could see enough time, especially in that tiger's infield that always kind of seems a little fluid between second, third, base and short stop depending upon which good hitter, bad fielder they're trying to hide at a particular position on a given day.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think he could honestly be like a multi-position guy too, which boosts it.
[SPEAKER_00]: If I'm going to put a comp on him,
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the chase on uply, ugly comp is really good to be grew up watching and I think like he's got that kind of hard nose grittiness that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Otley brought to the game and just like always go go go.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, even when Otley was playing for the Dodgers in his late 30s, like he was going to splice up and on slides and, you know, like he was never not going full speed full bore at all times.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's very similar with Kevin McGonagall.
[SPEAKER_00]: Next guy is what we'll call out.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sebastian Walcott, he's been in AFL before.
[SPEAKER_00]: Super talented, you know, the tools are ridiculous.
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the youngest players at AA spent the full season there this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: really town a player, but I'm going to move on here to another one and chase the water and the lot has been here before.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think for a lot of us, we were hoping that the lot of would stay healthy enough to graduate and play for the guardians this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think guardians fans would love to have them a part of this mix right now as they're making this late season run.
[SPEAKER_00]: But health has always been a concern with the lot.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the story's still the same.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then some of these other names I'll just call off.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jesus, excuse me, host weight of Paula, host weight of Paula,
[SPEAKER_00]: to Paula and Miller, I think, or another class of prospects, particularly to Paula who maybe doesn't have the defensive upside that Miller has, even though I don't think knows a short side, I mean, it's on a air as this year, it's short.
[SPEAKER_00]: probably a pretty good third baseman.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the Paul was bad is better and I think we're going to continue to see this guy scale year after year as he gets into more power and better angles.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think if you look at the numbers, the metrics, the performances,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, 23 to 24 to then 25, you can see what the progression is and him getting better and better at every level.
[SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately for him, the Dodgers outfield in that system is stacked.
[SPEAKER_00]: So him and hope did not move as quickly as they probably would have it may be some other organizations, but.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, this is a, this is a very exciting player, um, not a great outfield, or I almost consider.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's like a better version of Elohimenez, where it's a bat.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the bat is better.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a better athlete than Elohimenez who was a pretty, like, bottom of the barrel athlete.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Paul was a pretty good athletic tester was like an outlier athletic tester at the time that he signed and because he was really from the United States, not from the Dominican Republic, we do have a fair amount of like amateur track record with him to kind of parse that out, but he just doesn't get good jumps.
[SPEAKER_00]: He just doesn't kind of naturally play.
[SPEAKER_00]: the outfield position, you know, um, there's guys that I think just have that and guys that don't and it's not like he's an outlier runner like a jaren deran or Chandler Simpson.
[SPEAKER_00]: We were like, oh, I think because of the makeup speed that he'll make some plays that like maybe his jumps wouldn't necessarily make.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's all bat with the Paula, but I'm not sure you necessarily care.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, you know, the, I don't know where he plays that's my thing.
[SPEAKER_00]: DH DH corner outfield.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's you're done Alvarez.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: But there's a guy who's really good at that with who plays for the Dodgers.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't know like that he scared.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is totally going off topic here, but as a as a Dodgers.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sam, as soon as he who follows that team very closely, I worry about what DePaula looks like as he continues to progress throughout his career because I don't think he's a big league out fielder personally.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he plays first base, there's somebody who's really good at that in places for the Dodgers right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the DH is also decent too.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I have concerns about where he ends up.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I also, I will say this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the bat can be good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know
[SPEAKER_01]: Correctly from wrong there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, I think it's been pretty consistently good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that there are like some of the power numbers and stuff maybe look down from what they should be like it was only a 158 like ISO this year and in the Midwest league, that's not the easiest place to hit.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was still like a 143 WRC plus
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, he got four games in Tulsa and didn't do much so didn't have a hit.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, I don't think you could take much away from that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I still really believe in the bat, the underlying metrics are still really, really good.
[SPEAKER_00]: He walks a ton.
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't strike out a whole lot.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the EVs are there.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just a matter of more consistently finding angles.
[SPEAKER_00]: And his two
[SPEAKER_00]: drop pretty significantly this year, but like four or five percent and it's more like the low 40 range now.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know mid-30s and the flyballs and
[SPEAKER_00]: mid 20s online drives, which is is great and typically, you know, you're going to have a higher batting average on balls and play if you're you're stinging it like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it will still come along.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's not a guy that they have moved that's not to say that they wouldn't move him.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I don't know if I don't know if he ends up late long term with the Dodgers, you know, but it's probably still two years away before he's ready to play in the big leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_00]: I wonder if they would try to hide them in like left field or something like that because the bat might be good enough to do that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But we'll see.
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is sort of the big names.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to take a quick break.
[SPEAKER_00]: We come back.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about 10 different players that we think could be breakouts in the AFL.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're back.
[SPEAKER_00]: We are talking Arizona fall league Jeff Ponds.
[SPEAKER_00]: Jacob Rudner.
[SPEAKER_00]: Alright, Rudd.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's kick it off, man.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you're the only one that picks it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't pick me pictures.
[SPEAKER_00]: I picked all haters.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if I can get my dress ready break out to the AFL for pitching just because like they could pitch well and like their ERA could still be five and a half like it is the craziest run environment out there, especially this time of year just feels like there's like no drag at all like the ball just goes EVs are crazy everything.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you have some pictures here and I think some pretty good ones and I'm going to let you.
[SPEAKER_00]: Go full Evangelical on Carson Wilbrand here, because I know that is your guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: I like Carson Wilbrand.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's your dude.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's your guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: I first of all, really a fan.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that he has a chance to be pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I will also say this to your point about pictures in the AFL.
[SPEAKER_01]: I also am weary of, you know, picking pictures to talk about for quote unquote breaking out because conventionally speaking.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know that it's the easiest to track if you're just like pulling up AFL stats and looking at ERAs and all that kind of stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: Some of these guys are going to look quote unquote bad,
[SPEAKER_01]: in the AFL.
[SPEAKER_01]: The reason I'm fascinated by pictures this time of years because some of these guys didn't really play a whole bunch during their seasons and I just want to see them go and like not be hurt for a little bit and get some innings and like I want to see the stuff and how they look and I'm not so invested in the ERA with Milbrant though.
[SPEAKER_01]: this has been a really good year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we have seen a lot of strides, both in terms of what the overall numbers look like, but also like how he's reshaped his body.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was told by a marlin source that prior to the season, no brand put 20 pounds of good weight onto his frame.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that has led to him throwing better and more strikes.
[SPEAKER_01]: There haven't been the same kinds of
[SPEAKER_01]: command and control issues.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we've seen the shapes of his pitches start to look a lot better, especially that like tight curveball that he throws a little bit more of right now has been impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Mill Brant is somebody who is ready to take a pretty big jump up the rankings and maybe into more of the regular
[SPEAKER_01]: organizational prospect conversation right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I currently have him as the Marlon 25th best prospect.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can honestly say on this prospect he's so much better than that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm just excited to see what the continued progression is like through the AFL.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, is that going to be conveyed via his ERA?
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe not, probably not.
[SPEAKER_01]: But at the same time, there has been such measurable progress throughout 2025 for him that I'm excited to see how that continues in fall league and whether or not we're able to go into 2026 feeling pretty good about how this is somebody who belongs in the
[SPEAKER_01]: high teens maybe of that Marlins list with a chance to maybe crack the top 10 next year as a 23 year old who will probably be hopefully be if everything continues to progress in you know double a for a little bit triple a and then by the end of the year we'll see what happens with a major league call up potentially but this is somebody who's close-ish to a major league debut and I just think that Fall League is going to be the perfect bridge into what would be a very productive 2026 for him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I would agree.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I think it's uh, it's good stuff and the other thing is, you know, it's not that's not to say there aren't
[SPEAKER_00]: quality picture breakouts in the AFL, like every year there are guys like that that that that come out and and shove and and and perform and I think you know you get a couple of good starts under your belt and the numbers look pretty good people start talking like hey this is a really tough run environment and this guys keep in some runs off the board sometimes that works sometimes it doesn't I'm looking at you counter Thomas.
[SPEAKER_00]: My first guy I'm going to throw out there is kind of a breakout from this year in the brewer system.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that is, I'm going to screw this up.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's Marco Dengas.
[SPEAKER_00]: Is it?
[SPEAKER_00]: No.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're laughing at me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm laughing because I also don't know, but you were the one who had to say it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's fun.
[SPEAKER_00]: D-I-N-G-E-S, you know, the bats' ability is below average, but the swing decisions are really, really good, 24% chase rate, 44% swing.
[SPEAKER_00]: I like to look at the gap between chase and swing.
[SPEAKER_00]: Anything above 20% is pretty good.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's right in the nose of 20.
[SPEAKER_00]: The EVs are awesome.
[SPEAKER_00]: 107.290th percentile.
[SPEAKER_00]: 91.3 average eggs at below this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: You had a 112.
[SPEAKER_00]: Pretty decent barrel rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hard hit launch angle, 10.8 degrees.
[SPEAKER_00]: Biggest issue with him is he doesn't pull the ball that much.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was like a 12.4% pull air, which is which is below average.
[SPEAKER_00]: But with those EVs and good swing decisions, I think this could work at a four-alien wool but this year, that's backed by a 360 X wool buff, really good damage numbers, et cetera.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I look at a guy like this and I look at that run environment in AFL and I think to myself, he's the kind of guy even if he's not catching could potentially DH in whatever lineup he's in a given day, you know.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I
[SPEAKER_00]: I kind of feel like he's a guy that could break out a little bit because he could put on a show and have some two, three homer games and you kind of do that Jose Bersigno thing that we saw last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, but Marco think it's Dingis.
[SPEAKER_00]: But Dingis, Dingis, Dingis, Marco Dingis sounds worse.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I like Dingis, but D-I-N-G-E-S.
[SPEAKER_00]: So who is your next team?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to Sean Lee Neon, former Dodgers prospect now with the Nats, another picture I know, maybe I'm crazy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have three pictures.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just going to tell people that now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Millburn was my first, this is my second.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I mean, if you're going to, if you're going to take a change up and.
[SPEAKER_01]: you're going to try and model your change up after somebody in the minors right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: O'Shawn is not exactly a bad pick.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's one of the nastier changeups in baseball right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's more of like a screwball, 65% with rate this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: The biggest thing though and I kind of mentioned this was that he wasn't terribly healthy after he got trained from the Dodgers to the nats this year and so this goes you know kind of back to what I was saying.
[SPEAKER_01]: I really
[SPEAKER_01]: just pitch in the AFL and what that continues to look like from a development standpoint.
[SPEAKER_01]: As I said, super intriguing because of that change up, I think that there are other reasonably decent pitches around it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's currently in the middle in the mid-pack of the net system for us, kind of like Carson Millbrandt is he's somebody who could move up.
[SPEAKER_01]: It wouldn't surprise me.
[SPEAKER_01]: It wouldn't, doesn't surprise me when guys who strike out was at 15 batters per night innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even though it was in a limited sample, move up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm pretty bullish on him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was when the Dodgers traded him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I thought that that could be one of those things that the Dodgers regret, whether that's because he becomes some sort of very productive reliever or figures out a way to start games.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I just liked the guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm intrigued by that one pitch.
[SPEAKER_01]: and maybe you can speak on this too.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is fun to put some emotional investment when it comes to AFL time in guys who just have one really standout pitch.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't even know that I'm super invested in the package here as much as I am just in what that change up looks like.
[SPEAKER_01]: It could be the best pitch on the AFL roster this fall, maybe.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think it's a 70, I think it's a 70 change of.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it has 11 mile per hour separation velocity-wise off this fastball.
[SPEAKER_00]: It has a,
[SPEAKER_00]: 8.17 VAA to a 4.4 on its fore seam.
[SPEAKER_00]: Anything like two is good, anything that's like a two and a half degree separation is is really good.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is like almost a four degree separation.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's an absurd amount of drop.
[SPEAKER_00]: And and he just really kills lift.
[SPEAKER_00]: It almost has like it's like a one IVB like it has negative IVB at times.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the craziest thing, as you said, it's a screwball.
[SPEAKER_00]: He spins this pitch.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's got 2,600 to like, 2,800 RPM spin rates.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, it's almost like a reverse breaking ball.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, people talked about the reverse slider or sweeper.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's almost like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it is sweeper is shape.
[SPEAKER_00]: 16 inches of arm side run.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is just a devastating change up.
[SPEAKER_00]: And especially with some of the lower level guys, like you get to line up and has a lot of guys that have been played above AA or a very little AA experience, he's going to eat those guys alive.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because guys would change up like this in the lower levels, just eat constantly.
[SPEAKER_00]: So like that pick a lot, Sean Paul Lignon.
[SPEAKER_00]: My next name is a name and I can say correctly, that's Park's Harbor.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, I've written a bit about Harbor was at UGA for a few years transferred to UNC.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think for a fourth season in college if I'm not mistaken, um, was an NDFA, undrafted free agent by the Yankees, ends up getting delts, um, this off season.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, excuse me, at the trade deadline and he looks awesome.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the EVs are really, really good, um,
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's some ability to hit the swing and miss stuff isn't terribly concerning.
[SPEAKER_00]: It wouldn't shock me if Parks Harbor like absolutely goes off in AFL.
[SPEAKER_00]: That that would be my particular expectation.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, certainly like he's going to be playing home games at Scottsdale, which is not the easiest park to hit him out of, but both still travels there and he's got, you know, like 17.4% in zone with 22.5% chase rate with a 44.7% swing rate that's like a 22, a little bit over 22% difference between chasing swing.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then like the EVs are loud, like a 107.990th percentile.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's plus by major league standards, really good angles, you know, really high barrel rate, one of the highest barrel rates of any hitter in the AFL.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think Harbor could really potentially break out in a big way.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you have any experience from him from your your beat days at Florida and
[SPEAKER_01]: I saw, I actually know what, I don't know that I ever saw him in person, but he is awfully intriguing.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got really good bat to ball skills and was somebody who, you know, with there was reason to be bullish about him coming out of college.
[SPEAKER_01]: I did not get to see him in person, so I don't really have much to add other than what you just said, but he definitely makes for a very interesting prospect in the AFL because of that bat to ball.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think it's like in the power.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just like it's like a perfect AFL mix.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, all right.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's jump onto your final, your final picture here.
[SPEAKER_00]: Who is that?
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, my final arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, so I will also say that this is somebody who I, you know, you want to, you do the college guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got to go back to my college dudes.
[SPEAKER_01]: Jacob Wright with the Dodgers is on my list.
[SPEAKER_01]: My final picture.
[SPEAKER_01]: Why is he on there?
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of similar to my other guys except for Milbrand.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just want to see him throw.
[SPEAKER_01]: We only saw nine games, 19 and two-thirds innings out of the former Cal Poly slow lefty, but he's really got great stuff, like nasty, nasty stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: The sweeper, it's like average 15.2 inches of, of, of, of, of,
[SPEAKER_01]: Movement 50.6, sorry, horizontal break 50.6 inches of horizontal break.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a good fastball.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got real feel for spin, being left handed is obviously exciting, but yeah, I mean the latter movement this guy's able to generate with a multitude of different pitches is impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a real fastball.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also got a sinker that he pairs with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we just didn't get to see a whole lot of him in the regular season.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that he has a track record of being pretty exciting.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's last to your Cal Poly slow in 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: He struck out 101 batteries, walked 42 over 88 innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: As a first year pro in 2025, it's 22 years old in Rancho.
[SPEAKER_01]: And 19 and two third earnings struck out 24 walked eight.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is somebody who misses a lot of bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got exciting stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just about whether or not he's able to stay on the mound and not get hurt.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is kind of going to be his season.
[SPEAKER_01]: We didn't really get to see a lot of him this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm just looking forward to getting innings on Jacob Wright's arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: And hearing what our friend the bear thinks about him, because I know he was high on him earlier this year before he got hurt.
[SPEAKER_00]: right around the time that he got hurt.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's really good stuff and internally like Dodgers folks were were speaking pretty highly of him.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's a very good one.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to stay with my power hitters here with as Merlin Valdez or the Pirates.
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw him a couple times last week, because he was in that series, was on that Altoona team.
[SPEAKER_00]: with Mr. Griffin, you know, there's some swing and miss here for sure, had a really, really good year kind of a bit of a breakout performance for him, but is there a swing and miss absolutely 30.5% miss rate this year 23.8% in zone with he doesn't really chase though 21% higher swing rate lot of like swing strike in a lot of excuse me, I'm swinging at strikes in the zone.
[SPEAKER_00]: The EVs once again are really good, 107.898 percentile.
[SPEAKER_00]: His max EV this year was 115.2.
[SPEAKER_00]: 90.5 mile per hour average exit velocity and his angles are flawless.
[SPEAKER_00]: 15.6 percent, launch angle.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you give me 15.6 degree to launch angle, 14.8 degree.
[SPEAKER_00]: Heart hit launch angle and this pull launch angle which more from the knot is a lot with a lot of these guys really low or ordinary negative sometimes 6.8 degree pull launch angle which is above average had a 25% pull air this year 387 wo bo bo with a 353 x wo bo really high damage numbers This is the kind of guy that can win like an AFL MVP
[SPEAKER_00]: because he can pop out nine home runs in a short season and especially with some of these parks and we haven't really seen him in parks that haven't had marine layers, whether that's in Pittsburgh and like pirate city where you're dealing with that stuff or Bradenton,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, then gets promoted to green sparrow, which is a great place to hit.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have seen them there.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'll actually take that back.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's true.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then I'll tuna.
[SPEAKER_00]: But nothing is like the AFL.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like there are guys that, you know, hit a lot more homers when they're playing in AFL than any other place that they'll likely ever play.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
[SPEAKER_00]: So who is your first hitter?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, you mentioned there's some swing and miss.
[SPEAKER_01]: My first hitter has almost none, and that is Mr. Henry Mendez, an outfielder for the twins.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let me just say, if this guy can figure out how to hit the ball in the air, just a little bit of loft in the swing,
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he has a chance to be a seriously good baseball player and somebody who's going to be productive for the twins as early as next year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know when next year, just because he didn't really, I mean, he was double a almost all year of this year I believe, but
[SPEAKER_01]: Man could he move fast if there's a little bit of loft added that he could figure out how to consistently backspin the baseball Because he doesn't swing your miss 9.5% in zone with rate over almost 500 plate appearances in double A this season The exit velocity numbers are not bad 104.8 mile per hour 90 if I really think that he has a chance to be
[SPEAKER_01]: impressive and if he can use the AFL as an opportunity to kind of tune up the swing and get to some more power and actually I shouldn't even put it that way.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not get some more power, just get to more like putting the ball in the air and using the really good swing decisions and the contact that he's already shown that he can make he hit 300 this year, he gets on base.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is like
[SPEAKER_01]: fine defender.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm really high on Henry Mendez.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was excited to talk about it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably the most exciting prospect that I have on my five guys that you and I were going to talk about on this episode and AFL.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the opportunity to kind of see it hopefully start to come together because like I said, I am really confident that he's going to jump to AAA early next year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's going to be able to debut for the twins at some point next summer at 22 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if all of it starts to kind of come together, we're talking about a really impressive outfield of prospect for Minnesota.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I totally agree.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I wrote about him last week as well as just a general sort of data sleeper.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the numbers do pop like the skills are there.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's even some decent EVs.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you're like you said it's just a matter of like backspitting the ball, like a little bit more if the angles get a little bit better.
[SPEAKER_00]: The production's already good, it could sort of skyrocket, you know, to another level.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's kind of bounced around to a few orgs at this point, too.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, that's kind of kind of interesting.
[SPEAKER_00]: So my pen ultimate name here is Sam Peterson, former Iowa Hawkeye.
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought he was kind of a draft sleeper at the time when he went in the eighth rounds.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, spent time this year across primary.
[SPEAKER_00]: He dealt with some injuries.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's wise in AFL, but primarily was, you know, with high A, Wilmington, which is a very hard place to hit.
[SPEAKER_00]: And he put up phenomenal numbers.
[SPEAKER_00]: 297 398, 498 with six homerons and 18 stolen bases over 44 games.
[SPEAKER_00]: So 161WRC plus 18% strikeout rate, 11.6%
[SPEAKER_00]: I like Peterson because I think he's going to run out there in AFL, but guys often run wild.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's potentially more power here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he's probably sliding a little bit under the radar because of what his draft position was, but his organization is.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then also the fact that he was limited to kind of, you know, 44 games this year at high A, but when he was there, he was incredibly productive.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's just a general sleeper, so I kind of wanted to get my plug-in for Sam Peterson, and that is with a E at not an O. It's S-E-N not S-O-N, so Peterson not Peterson.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's, like I said, my fourth name, I got one more.
[SPEAKER_00]: You got one more.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hit me with your last name.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, my last one is Blake Mitchell of the Royals.
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably one of the more famous names in the AFL this year, but man, Jeff, I just wanna see it, I wanna see him take off.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's where this one's at.
[SPEAKER_01]: With Henry, we're looking at a hitter where it's like you have all the exciting tools and it really came together this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now if you start putting the ball in the air, you're gonna be really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I need to see just more from Blake Mitchell.
[SPEAKER_01]: This was not like the best year ever.
[SPEAKER_01]: He hit 207, he hit two home runs, but he was also the overall pick in 2023.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's an exciting prospect who is still young, 21 years old, and like, you know, you know what's funny?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like distracting myself here, but I feel like I've covered, you know, three different very key areas of AFL people across my five prospects.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have like exciting pictures who are looking to build on their season like Carson Mobile brand.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have guys who didn't really get to pitch a lot and they need more innings like Jacob Wright.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have hitters who are young and need to add one little tiny refinement to their swings like Henry who are right there and can be really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you have guys like Blake Mitchell where it's just like, please go perform well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Starling Kaba is on the AFL roster, like same thing, terrible year, go and impress some people, show people that you can do it.
[SPEAKER_01]: We are as an outlet, we are high on Blake Mitchell.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has the tools to be a good baseball player.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just think that this is kind of the fall where it has to happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has to develop better as a catcher.
[SPEAKER_01]: He took a big jump last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: This year didn't look good.
[SPEAKER_01]: The run numbers weren't as impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: He stole 25 bases in 24.
[SPEAKER_01]: This year I believe he stole 12 of it and he got caught five times.
[SPEAKER_01]: just kind of got to see the quickness come back in every phase of the game whether that's him, throwing the ball, that's the swing, running all of the things that we saw from 2024 Blake Mitchell, I just want, I want back and I hope that this AFL stint.
[SPEAKER_01]: will be the moment where he starts to kind of recapture the prospect that has excited us for some time.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, look, it's like six power.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that wrong?
[SPEAKER_01]: Could be six power.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know that it's presently six power, but like it could be either there.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's possible.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
[SPEAKER_01]: The hit is what?
[SPEAKER_01]: A five?
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe, maybe slightly below that for half.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just want to see it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to see that actually be a thing in a game.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that this is an opportunity for us to actually get a look.
[SPEAKER_00]: 100% that's a good final pick and one that who honestly could have like a huge breakout because he's got some of the pedigree.
[SPEAKER_00]: Carter Jensen had an awesome AF found.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that kind of springboarded him into the season, had a great season and obviously got up to the big leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: My last name is playing in this Binghamton Eary game right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Nick Morabito.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a good athlete.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got really good skills.
[SPEAKER_00]: Played a full season with Binghamton this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hit 273 348 385.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a 119 WRC plus.
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, I don't know where the power goes here.
[SPEAKER_00]: The skills are really good.
[SPEAKER_00]: He really swings and misses.
[SPEAKER_00]: He makes good swing decisions.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like an 88 mile per hour average and like a 103.2 90th percentile.
[SPEAKER_00]: The angles just aren't very good.
[SPEAKER_00]: 4.4 degree launch angle,
[SPEAKER_00]: hard hit launch angle, a little better, 8.4, pull launch angle, negative 6.6, he cannot pull the ball.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I am interested to see if maybe working with some different coaches, maybe he can make some tweaks.
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe that desert air carries a couple of those flyballs a little bit further.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's a really exciting player with tools and maybe more upside than I think people realize.
[SPEAKER_00]: reasonable label for what his potential upside or role is in the future.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's probably a fourth outfielder, but could be a pretty good one.
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see what the back goes.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, the skills are there.
[SPEAKER_00]: He makes a lot of contact, it's just a matter of doing a little bit more damage.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we'll see if that comes in AFL or not.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, Rod.
[SPEAKER_00]: I appreciate you joining me here on this podcast for everybody that's tuned in.
[SPEAKER_00]: This has been The Baseball, America.
[SPEAKER_00]: Cheers.