[SPEAKER_01]: This is a news.com newsflash.
[SPEAKER_00]: The economic fallout from President Donald Trump's tariffs is expected to hit during the twenty twenty five holiday season, according to Apollo Global Management's chief economist, Torsten Slot.
[SPEAKER_00]: Slot says the tariffs announced under Trump's trade policies are driving up consumer prices and could push inflation to a high point late this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he pointed to consensus inflation forecasts showing continued price increases through November and December.
[SPEAKER_00]: They need to wait to see the people.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we have really only had to take off stage.
[SPEAKER_00]: He explained.
[SPEAKER_00]: Evidence of inflation is already emerging.
[SPEAKER_00]: The latest consumer price index report shows that prices for durable goods rose by zero point seven percent year over year in June.
[SPEAKER_00]: This marks the second consecutive month of gains after more than two years of declines.
[SPEAKER_00]: The overall CPI climbed to two-point-seven percent in June, up from two-point-four percent in May.
[SPEAKER_00]: Slop warns that services inflation, which makes up about sixty percent of the CPI, is likely to accelerate next.
[SPEAKER_00]: He attributes this partly to the labor market impact of Trump's mass deportation policies.
[SPEAKER_00]: with a smaller labor pool, wage growth rises, which increases business costs and, ultimately, prices.
[SPEAKER_00]: Despite rising prices, slot doesn't expect the federal reserve to cut interest rates anytime soon.
[SPEAKER_00]: He believes the central bank will wait to assess the full impact of the tariffs before making significant policy changes.
[SPEAKER_00]: Slok has also raised concerns that the US may be entering a period of stagnation, a situation where inflation rises while economic growth slows down.
[SPEAKER_00]: In a note to clients, he called this a stagnation shock, and one of the worst possible outcomes for the economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's snowing, unfiltered.