[SPEAKER_02]: Everybody, JJ Cooper, Cory Patton here.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is now a yearly tradition.
[SPEAKER_02]: The draft is right around the corner.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got a special extra draft podcast and YouTube video here because we want to talk about.
[SPEAKER_02]: As every year, we use the Pomona Shift AI tool to help us kind of pull together insights in the draft things that are happening that would be, I can write some sequel, but it's a lot easier for me to not have to write every line of sequel.
[SPEAKER_02]: We used the tool using our databases and all to find out what are some trends that are going on.
[SPEAKER_02]: We do this for Cory every year.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've been doing this.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't even want to admit how long we're doing.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know that Jared Jones was still in high school when we were starting to do this.
[SPEAKER_02]: And Jared Jones was very much flagged at the top of the draft point we were using.
[SPEAKER_02]: But now what we're going to do today that we hope you're going to find interesting is, I promise you, I don't care how big of a draft Nick you are.
[SPEAKER_02]: I say this is someone who really kind of thinks about the MLB draft and awful lot myself.
[SPEAKER_02]: And there are things that we came across in this that were eye opening for me.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I feel like I feel pretty comfortable that they're going to be eye opening to you as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: And Corey kind of like that's where you've been kind of using the tool.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've been using the tool, but you've found a lot of things, a lot of trends, a lot of statistics and all of things where streaks of things that have happened that haven't happened in the draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: We will start with the disclaimer, past performance does not indicate future results.
[SPEAKER_02]: It is we're not saying
[SPEAKER_02]: When we have this really cool astrostat, we're going to share that doesn't tell you that there's zero percent chance that they could draft a position in a particular position going forward because they have their choice.
[SPEAKER_02]: But we're saying the last, if you look at recent years, usually that gives you clues.
[SPEAKER_02]: to how different teams think, to how different teams, whether it's their evaluation or their draft models, because a lot of teams use analytical models in this, how they wait things in all.
[SPEAKER_02]: So Corey, great to see you.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm just going to let we're just going to dive into this.
[SPEAKER_02]: You've been looking at a lot of this stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: What is one of the things that just jumps out to you like, hey, I did not realize this until I started looking at this.
[SPEAKER_03]: First of all, JJ, you are the draft guru.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to drift off of you during this podcast.
[SPEAKER_03]: I might have the tool that helps find those things, but you're the draft guy for context.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I'm going to dive into some stuff that our, yes, as you mentioned, our Pomona Lab shift AI tool has helped us fair it out instantly to show some context around all these streaks and droughts and team-based performance metrics and all that.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I'm going to show you kind of a lot of stuff today that maybe
[SPEAKER_03]: No one would have seen coming in the first hundred picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: And as you mentioned, the first hundred picks are a lot of where the best value comes from.
[SPEAKER_03]: And so most of the coverage that we're going to talk about today is going to be from those first.
[SPEAKER_03]: And so when you break it down by teams, you break it down by levels and school levels and positions, there are some really interesting stuff.
[SPEAKER_03]: to talk about.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think we should start with a little bit of what teams do most often.
[SPEAKER_03]: And we'll do a little bit of streaks in the top one-hundred picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: And we'll do a little bit of position-based streaks in the top one-hundred picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: If you look at position players, what has been a more popular position player to be drafted, and the M will be drafted over the last, I don't know, ten years than shortstop.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, every year, shortstop, strap at the top of the draft, they're the most premium player on the field.
[SPEAKER_03]: They're usually some of the best athletes, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: And they're versatile where if you draft a short stop, that could be your center field or it could be your third base, then it could be your second base, then it could be your right field or your left field or it could be your first base, then if you need to, like there, if you draft a first base, then he's not going to be your short stop.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you draft a short stop, he could be your first base.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, and you're only getting in so in those top-hundred pictures, you're only going to get a couple of bites at the Apple, three, four, and Max, maybe picks in some cases, who knows, not very many, and usually the premium players go off the board first.
[SPEAKER_03]: A team like that really shocked me when I saw this was, of course short stops are always in value, but the rays have taken one for eight consecutive drafts now.
[SPEAKER_03]: And that just let me go to show you how valuable they are.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think it's a really interesting piece because once you start loading up your minor leagues, they just kept saying this is the best athlete on the field.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to keep taking them.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that's probably to your point why they have such a consistent streak of taking short stops in the first one hundred picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: Any context around that?
[SPEAKER_02]: I just think of what you said, like if you're saying, we're just taking the best players, especially when you get to the high school level.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, there were very few exceptions.
[SPEAKER_02]: This year, Corona High has two middle infielders who could go in the first or the first and the supplemental first round.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those situations are exceptionally rare.
[SPEAKER_02]: Generally, if you're taking a high school player, you're not taking a second basement.
[SPEAKER_02]: You're not taking the third basement.
[SPEAKER_02]: If he throws right handed,
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, throws lefty, then he's an outfielder.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's probably probably.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if he throws right handed, it's probably a short stop because the best athlete on pretty much every high school team who throws right handed plays shortstop.
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, unless you're at Corona and you have three guys who could go, who could all play shortstop, who could all go in the first round, those aren't the situations normally.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I think that's the example of that.
[SPEAKER_02]: But then you told me that there's the flip side of this that was more surprising to me.
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, as far as the number has not taken a short stop at the top of their picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, so I mean, in the first hundred picks of team that is not taking a short stop of any level, high school or college, the Rockies haven't taken a short stop since twenty-eight team with Taren Bobber, which is just hard to read a belief to be honest with you.
[SPEAKER_03]: Because I mean, that position you would feel like you would have a year bite at the apple each year.
[SPEAKER_03]: And so not taking once is twenty-eight team is pretty long.
[SPEAKER_03]: But it's not nearly as long as some of the other position players, which I mean, go look at first basement.
[SPEAKER_03]: The Tigers haven't taken a first basement since Riko Bronja in the first hundred picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: And there's the caveat.
[SPEAKER_03]: Spencer Torcosman was listed as a third basement when he was drafted.
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a third basement, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: We are not saying what they play in the majors.
[SPEAKER_02]: We are saying at the time that they were drafted.
[SPEAKER_02]: To take the extreme example, if we're talking about Trevor Hoffman, we would be talking about a short stop, not a right-handed reliever, because at the time he was drafted, he was a position player.
[SPEAKER_02]: The fact that down the road he moved is not what we're talking about.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about where they were drafted as.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, for sure.
[SPEAKER_03]: And you know, even even to that at a second base, second basement aren't usually taken in the first hundred, pick sometimes they are, but I mean, the white socks haven't taken a second basements.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's nineteen eighty five.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, that's just a big substance.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: I knew it.
[SPEAKER_03]: You just feel like over the course of the last, you know, forty years, you'd get closer to having somebody just take one that was on the board that made a lot of sense.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I mean, and you know, let's go to the pitching side.
[SPEAKER_03]: Astros.
[SPEAKER_03]: I want to segue into that.
[SPEAKER_03]: They haven't taken a left handed picture of any of any levels since Brady, eight, and first overall in, twenty, four, ten.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I know the half hundred picks no left you the top hundred picks is twenty fourteen.
[SPEAKER_02]: No.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's no.
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_02]: That leads to a stat that I pulled together and I'll kind of work some in here on this that I pulled together, you know, when we were doing this, which is looking big picture on this.
[SPEAKER_02]: But also trying to like, I knew I'd like, okay, you were looking at top on your picks.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm looking at the totality of drafts, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: But I've also tried to narrow it down.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm looking at twenty, twenty, twenty, twenty, five.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm looking at more recent trends where I would say, again, it doesn't mean that they're guaranteed to keep doing it this way.
[SPEAKER_02]: But it does mean that this is the way they've operated.
[SPEAKER_02]: And one of the things that stands out with this, oops, I got the wrong one there.
[SPEAKER_02]: Let me go to this one.
[SPEAKER_02]: So this is lefties and righties.
[SPEAKER_02]: twenty to twenty twenty twenty twenty four slash five drafts drafted in sign for each work and this is all thirty or is obviously and you see that after is right there what you just said Corey very small percentage of pictures that they have drafted that red right there that's the lefties there's only i would say one other organization the mariners is the other organization that fits with that to those two organizations
[SPEAKER_02]: very much draft right-handed pictures, much more than lefties.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think with the astros, if you look at them, you talked about since Brady Aiken, maybe they got a little bit gunshot for that, but I would say more than that, if you look at their majorly roster construction, I would say with that,
[SPEAKER_02]: We've seen them.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not saying they'd never had any lefties and rotation or the rule, you know, or the pen.
[SPEAKER_02]: But they've had years where they went into the postseason, like usually you think that your teams off to have want to have one, two lefty relievers for matchups.
[SPEAKER_02]: They very much just seemed like over the years viewed it as if we have quality right handers who can get lefties out.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's better for us, especially in the new rules where you have to face three batters.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have deemphasized it feels like lefties.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now if you compare that,
[SPEAKER_02]: There are some teams here, like if you look at the D-backs there, if you look at the giants there and if you look at the white socks and the royals, they take more lefties.
[SPEAKER_02]: Because again, you can see from this a little bit of an average there.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I wanted to add one other kind of along these lines, okay, so we've looked at pictures.
[SPEAKER_02]: I find this one to be honest even more fascinating.
[SPEAKER_02]: If we look at hitters, this is over the last five drafts.
[SPEAKER_02]: And we say, you bet right handed, you bet left handed or you're a switch hitter.
[SPEAKER_02]: Look at the Guardians.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: That red is, okay, I should have bad graphic design by me.
[SPEAKER_02]: Red was right hander on the last one.
[SPEAKER_02]: Red is left hander on this one.
[SPEAKER_02]: Bad graphic design, I apologize.
[SPEAKER_02]: But the Guardians do not draft left, I mean, right handed hitters.
[SPEAKER_02]: The lefties are the red, though yellow is the switch hitters.
[SPEAKER_02]: Less than twenty-five percent of the drafted and assigned position players that the guardians have drafted in the last five drafts.
[SPEAKER_02]: Bat right handed, which is stunning when you consider as we just talked about.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you play second base, if you play shortstop, if you play third base, you have to throw right handed.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you can be a switch hitter, you can bat left throw right.
[SPEAKER_02]: They can, you know, those are things you can do, but they're at the outlier of all outliers.
[SPEAKER_02]: And by the way, but there's the flip side outlier or two, which is if you look at the twins, over seventy five percent of the hitters, the twins have drafted over that time are right handed hitters.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, so interesting the guardians third they have the longest draft of not taking a third basement of the first hundred picks of any quote out there going back to twenty o six.
[SPEAKER_03]: So there you go.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's this with it as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So like again, these are some of the trends that we're talking about where you can see things for the like I'll be interested to see, but my suspicion would be if you watch the pay attention to the guardians drafter in this draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: You're not going to see them take a whole lot of right handed hitters and we say that like we kind of first I kind of have to be honest I saw something in that about which Josh Norris on our staff noticed like he was at a guardians game minor league game
[SPEAKER_02]: and Josh shoots from open sides of hitters.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he realized he's like, I'm never wandering over to the first base side with this guardians team.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm always on the third base side shooting lefties.
[SPEAKER_02]: Why is that?
[SPEAKER_02]: And then we started looking at it and realized, oh, they clearly
[SPEAKER_02]: have had an organizational philosophy that the platoon advantage, because obviously left-handed hitters are going to face way more right handed pictures than they're going to face left handed pictures.
[SPEAKER_02]: The platoon advantage to them is very advantageous to something very important to them.
[SPEAKER_02]: The twins on the other hand are looking at it and saying,
[SPEAKER_02]: We do not mind taking right-handed pit hitters who are then going to have to face right-handed pitchers because there are a lot more right-handed pitchers than.
[SPEAKER_02]: But by the way, so if the twins face the Astros in a game, at the obsession in the minor leagues, you're going to see a whole lot of right-handed pitchers throwing to a whole lot of right-handed hitters.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So that's going to mind, but what is another one of yours that you've come across?
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, I think we also have to look at
[SPEAKER_03]: And what has become kind of apparent in the levels?
[SPEAKER_03]: The school else, highest school versus college, and you have some good graphics about that over the last five years or so.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I can even go back even further on all this stuff about the top hundred picks, most consecutive times taking a player of that level.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, the rays have taken a high school player within the first hundred picks in twenty three straight drafts.
[SPEAKER_03]: Wow.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's pretty big, including the COVID year when college players were the primary drafted
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, level of player during that COVID-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[SPEAKER_03]: But it's kind of interesting that some teams just say we still find a lot of value, drafting at a high school and developing further.
[SPEAKER_02]: So and there's you have a slide, I think you'll probably put the wrong one up again, but I want to show you this, this is this pictures one, this right.
[SPEAKER_02]: So this is over the last five drafts again, all total draft and sign pitchers and this is showing you what
[SPEAKER_02]: demographics are coming from four year red blue is high school yellow is junior college and others others the very small group kuma rocker is another because he wasn't on a college team or a junior college team or but okay
[SPEAKER_02]: This one jumps out right here like you said.
[SPEAKER_02]: The Rangers have, now, Kumar soccer fits for them.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's one of these these.
[SPEAKER_02]: But, mainly, they are more willing to take junior college pitchers than any other organization over the last five years and sign them.
[SPEAKER_02]: Whereas in comparison, the Marlons of the Metz have not drafted and signed any junior college pitchers over the last five drafts.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, the flip side, high school, okay?
[SPEAKER_02]: The red socks and cardinals, I will know,
[SPEAKER_02]: I will now, this is one trend when I say past performance does not indicate future results.
[SPEAKER_02]: During this time, I'm blue and was the red socks, you know, decision maker for much of the, much of these years.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I'm blue and is in St.
[SPEAKER_02]: Louis, but St.
[SPEAKER_02]: Louis already also, very rarely.
[SPEAKER_02]: Astros also, very rarely, draft and signed high school pitchers.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you've seen very little blue there, that is an organization, nationals.
[SPEAKER_02]: By the way, this is another interesting one.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've talked about the nationals, which obviously the nationals just fired their GM,
[SPEAKER_02]: It could be a change of a decision-making, but we've talked about with them, you know, could they take Sephrane and it has become the first high school right hand or ever to go one one?
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, the last five years would say probably not considering that they have been one of the teams that takes the fewest number of high school pictures and signs them.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like this is again, these are trends.
[SPEAKER_02]: It doesn't mean it's a guarantee, but it is notable here when you see teams like I'm the flip side.
[SPEAKER_02]: The brewers, who are really one of the best teams of developing pitching, but the brewers over twenty five percent of the pitchers that they've drafted in the sign over the last five years are high school pitchers.
[SPEAKER_02]: That is the them and the pod raise are the only two above twenty five percent and the brewers have the highest percentage, which again, these are the kind of things that we know.
[SPEAKER_02]: They are trends.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, again, doesn't mean that they will always follow that without any deviation.
[SPEAKER_02]: But it does mean that these are kind of probably court tenants that these teams have.
[SPEAKER_02]: Or it's like, maybe we'll take a high school picture.
[SPEAKER_02]: But he's going to have to, you know, for some of these teams, it's like, he's got to be really beyond everyone else on our board.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're other teams.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, no, no, we don't mind the risk.
[SPEAKER_02]: We believe that we can develop those players.
[SPEAKER_03]: Not interesting, but I mean, you go back to my droughts here, a second ago, we talked about in left handed pitchers high school.
[SPEAKER_03]: We talked about high school lefties.
[SPEAKER_03]: The athletics haven't taken one since nineteen seventy nine in the first hundred picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: The high school left handed pitcher.
[SPEAKER_03]: And on Mariners since two thousand six, I mean, those are two just they just buy school lefties not in the first hundred picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's just not a game.
[SPEAKER_03]: They play even right handed pitchers.
[SPEAKER_03]: The giants last right handed pitcher.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the top one hundred was twenty eleven with Kyle Crick and the Cubs in twenty twelve with Paul Blackburn.
[SPEAKER_03]: So those are two clubs that say, okay, we're not going to pick the high school pitchers in the early and early in the draft round.
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe they later in the rounds for sure, but they just stay away from those from that level.
[SPEAKER_03]: But from the on the flip side, the college pitchers, the four-year college pitchers,
[SPEAKER_03]: which is the very popular demographic in the drawing.
[SPEAKER_03]: Very, but I mean, some more than others, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: So if you look again, I love the consecutive streaks because those that even bridge the COVID year are our special interesting, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: And the white socks have drafted a four-year college picture in the first hundred picks, forty-two straight drafts.
[SPEAKER_03]: Not even close.
[SPEAKER_03]: Cardinals, twenty-two is second.
[SPEAKER_03]: And then you go down to eighteen, seventeen, fourteen.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's remarkable.
[SPEAKER_03]: To trip and fall into a college four-year picture for forty-two straight traps in the first one, one-hundred is a remarkable consistency for the white socks.
[SPEAKER_02]: That is pretty remarkable.
[SPEAKER_02]: I have something I want to add in a minute on this that kind of fits with this as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm working it up.
[SPEAKER_02]: But that leads me to one other that I wanted to talk about, which is when we talk about these demographics, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Some teams view draft age.
[SPEAKER_02]: And while I say draft age, right, your age at draft day, very important.
[SPEAKER_02]: And others, I would say view it as a factor, but not nearly as important.
[SPEAKER_02]: To give an example of this, Eli Willis, who reclassified this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was supposed to be a junior this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now he's a senior, draft eligible, is expected to go on the top ten picks.
[SPEAKER_02]: We have kind of heard rumblings that maybe he fits at the cardinals at pick five.
[SPEAKER_02]: Well,
[SPEAKER_02]: If you look at the median age of high drafted high school players in the last five drafts, the Cardinals median age of their drafted high school players is the youngest by far, I would say, significantly younger than these other organizations.
[SPEAKER_02]: They are one of the teams and I will also just put up here for a second to show.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're also the fourth youngest when it comes to four-year college players.
[SPEAKER_02]: So what we can say from that is
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, things can always change, but the cardinals have very much viewed a younger player as being more advantageous than an older player at a similar level.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, at the flip side of this, you look at the tire jankers, Yankees and Mets.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have looked at it and said, the Met's Brett Bady was a famous example of this.
[SPEAKER_02]: For Brett Bady was one of the older high school players in that draft class.
[SPEAKER_02]: The Met's are fine with that.
[SPEAKER_02]: The Royals are pretty high up here.
[SPEAKER_02]: I bring that up because it doesn't mean that you can't succeed drafting older high school players.
[SPEAKER_02]: Bobby Witt Jr.
[SPEAKER_02]: was one of the older high school players in his class.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's worked out about as well as the royals could have possibly hoped on that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, bringing up this college one, we do see some changes here, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Like the Yankees were among the oldest high school players, but then they're among the youngest college.
[SPEAKER_02]: The college players, I'm still working on maybe I can figure out a way to filter out some of the noise on this in that.
[SPEAKER_02]: For the college players, if you are a, all in on a couple of players team, and then do a lot of senior signs, your senior signs, who save you money that allows you to sign our players, are gonna bump up your age, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: So that would be another thing here.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I would say that you could say that the Angel's Padres mayors and white socks, and white socks have some guys like Tim Alco, some senior sign success stories, have reached the majors.
[SPEAKER_02]: They are teams that are willing to kind of say, hey,
[SPEAKER_02]: ages less of a factor in when we're putting all of our different weights on how we weight and decide who we want.
[SPEAKER_03]: And that dope tells into what I was talking about a minute ago, and I want to clarify college, but twice off to draft in forty two straight drafts with a college player, not a college pitcher, and I want to make sure I get.
[SPEAKER_02]: And this is top hundred picks again though.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I might have missed spoke, but yeah, which is three two straight drafts of college player overall in any position.
[SPEAKER_03]: So it does gel with what you just showed about them having the oldest average checklist.
[SPEAKER_03]: So they do like to pray up on the college for your players.
[SPEAKER_03]: But if you look at even positions, I think there's some interesting position things, not even just the top one hundred, but just overall.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, when you look at certain things, certain certain teams that really like to draft for just position, even overall, and we'll come back to the top one hundred, third basement.
[SPEAKER_03]: the Mariners with a remarkable, forty-three consecutive drafts back to nineteen eighty-two taking a third baseman in their draft.
[SPEAKER_03]: And the second closest to the Marlin's Pirates and Athletics at only four years.
[SPEAKER_03]: You have the day taking a draft or a consecutive year.
[SPEAKER_03]: So forty-three straight years taking a third baseman in your draft class is pretty interesting.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that's something to note when you look at what you want to fill your organization for sure.
[SPEAKER_02]: I wanted to bring up another one myself, which is, okay, speaking all we talked about earlier.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is very simple.
[SPEAKER_02]: We don't, like, there is not something where you are required to draft in your twenty rounds, a full team.
[SPEAKER_02]: Clearly, you can't, you can't draft a full MLB team or a minor league team.
[SPEAKER_02]: But some teams look at it and say, we're going to go really pitcher heavy in the draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: Some teams say much more, we're going to go hitter heavy.
[SPEAKER_02]: I, I find this fascinating, the guardians, seventy percent of all draft picks the gardens have spent have made in the last five drafts.
[SPEAKER_02]: our pictures.
[SPEAKER_02]: Seven percent now, which someone says, well, how can you do that?
[SPEAKER_02]: How do you and the answer is really what your philosophy there is is our hitters, a lot of our hitters are going to come from your international, you know, amateur, you know, signings.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then your pitchers are going to come from the draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you, I would say, I don't, it's not shocking.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know that it's not shocking to you, Corey, as being part of us working on this a couple of years ago, to see the angels number two on there.
[SPEAKER_02]: Every pair.
[SPEAKER_02]: You were probably guessing angels won.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm guessing after that draft from a few years ago, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: And the angels had a draft for just draft the pictures.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just pictures.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's incredible.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just draft the pictures.
[SPEAKER_02]: Here's what I find fascinating in the other hand.
[SPEAKER_02]: Look at the astros here.
[SPEAKER_02]: The astros spend forty four point six percent of draft picks are pitchers in a
[SPEAKER_02]: In an organ, you know, in a league where the median is well above fifty percent, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: The median is fifty eight percent.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the median.
[SPEAKER_02]: You could work out the average.
[SPEAKER_02]: The median, basically, the midpoint is fifty eight percent.
[SPEAKER_02]: The team that grass fifty eight percent pitchers is the norm.
[SPEAKER_02]: They draft forty four point six percent.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now when you say, okay, why do they do that?
[SPEAKER_02]: You just said for one, they don't draft left handers, especially high.
[SPEAKER_02]: So we've worked up that step.
[SPEAKER_02]: But also on top of that, what I would also say is the astros over the last five years have very much looked at and said, we have an excellent pitching development program.
[SPEAKER_02]: But especially if you think about their rotation, you think about from Reveal Desse.
[SPEAKER_02]: You think about Ronell Blanco.
[SPEAKER_02]: You think about Christian hobby.
[SPEAKER_02]: You could just keep going.
[SPEAKER_02]: their ability to develop often low-cost, older international pitching signies, who've been developed into starters or relievers at the big league level, has allowed them to kind of shift their focus in the draft to more hitters and one thing I'll also say with that, if you kind of
[SPEAKER_02]: If everyone else is saying that, okay, almost six out of every ten players taking our pictures, and you're saying six out of every ten, almost that we take will be hitters, you might get a chance to have a little bit better.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're confident in your ability, identify hitters, you're kind of, you're digging where everyone else is acting.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I do find that to be again, another one of these very interesting trends that we are seeing that usually the shift tool has to go right.
[SPEAKER_03]: Absolutely, and when you look at pitching why they're taking those in the first one hundred picks, and then you look at the actual outcome, the performance of the major league level, statistically over the history, if you look at pictures all time through the first hundred picks, high school pitchers drafted in the first hundred picks have had one MLBs at least one major league baseball game started, fifty-six percent of the time.
[SPEAKER_03]: four-year college players, fifty-eight percent of the time, and jucoco, and jucoco pitchers, forty-six percent of the time.
[SPEAKER_03]: So, it's still not much more over a fifty-fifty shot of a pitcher drafted in the first hundred picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's going to even get one start.
[SPEAKER_03]: And it goes, it's precipitously down when you say, you know, hundred strikeouts goes down to forty-five percent each, basically.
[SPEAKER_03]: And then, you know, it's just from there it goes down further.
[SPEAKER_03]: But you're not, you're not taking a picture of pitcher early on with much more than a fifty-fifty chance of yours.
[SPEAKER_02]: One of the things that jumps up to me as looking at this year over year, right now, we just did an update where we did update or our top-thirty prospect list, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: And there are good organizations, well-run organizations.
[SPEAKER_02]: I would say that right now, the tigers, it's hard to say the tigers are an extremely well-run organization.
[SPEAKER_02]: They have revitalized their big league club, their best record and baseball much of the year this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: They are a slam dunk world series contender this year, their farm systems really good, all that, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: They also are a reminder, like if you look in recent years for them, the number of pictures that they have drafted in the top hundred picks, who have less than twenty innings, thirty innings in the miners right now, because of injuries.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a pretty significant number.
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, and haul, each inch life and then I can think of like four Michael Massey.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're the number of them.
[SPEAKER_02]: You look at the, you know, there are, there are pictures like the guardians, again, really good pitching development.
[SPEAKER_02]: Justin Campbell, they drafted Justin Campbell in twenty twenty two.
[SPEAKER_02]: Premium pick, like out of Oklahoma State.
[SPEAKER_02]: He hasn't thrown a pitch in the minors yet.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's twenty twenty five.
[SPEAKER_02]: He has spent the entirety of the twenty two twenty three twenty four and twenty five season sideline.
[SPEAKER_02]: When you talk about pictures and by the way, I will cite like we can talk about the risk factors of high school pitchers, but a lot of those guys I just mentioned, Justin Campbell was a college pitcher, you know, Michael Massey was a college pitcher.
[SPEAKER_02]: You can also with the Guardian's point out Daniel Spino, who
[SPEAKER_02]: If you would rewind the clock to about that time that Justin Campbell was on the Mount of Oklahoma State, Daniel Spino was looking like the best pitching prospect in the minors, and he hasn't pitched since then, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: He's had multiple years.
[SPEAKER_02]: There is a risk factor.
[SPEAKER_02]: When you talk about that number of, it's a coin flip basically, fifty, fifty.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think a lot of that is the the Trishon rate of injury.
[SPEAKER_02]: well before you ever get to the majors and then there's also the interest rate once you get to the majors but it's it's always been challenging and it never gets easier because you know what we do know the the the reason that Jacob Miserowski is so dominant right now is because he throws harder than anyone ever has as a starter basically other than maybe a hundred great
[SPEAKER_02]: maybe Nolan Ryan.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then you say, okay, does that opt his risk of injury?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, because the harder you throw the more, for any picture, the harder you throw the more, you know, like if I throw ninety five, then I start throwing a hundred.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm putting more stress on my elbow.
[SPEAKER_02]: But at the same time, the reason he's great is because he's, it's the, you can't, it's the circle here where it's like, I throw harder, they're from better, they're for I increase the risk, which means I, but I'm also throwing harder, which means I'm better.
[SPEAKER_02]: You can tell Jacob, as we're asking, hey, why don't you just throw ninety five and the answer would be because I want to be really good, not someone who's okay.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the challenge of this.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, to that to that to your point there.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, the reason you'll have success is because you push yourself at a premium level as a premium athlete.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_03]: And, you know, fair, fair to Midland athletes are not premium players.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: So you, you want to push yourself to get there.
[SPEAKER_03]: On the flip side though, if you want to go to the other side about hitters, I think there's some interesting stats there to be garnered about in the top one hundred how they perform as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I went back with the shift tool and did a little bit of analysis taking two distinct time periods in baseball.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I went back from the first major league baseball draft in nineteen sixty five up to the year two thousand.
[SPEAKER_03]: And then I did it from two thousand to twenty seventeen.
[SPEAKER_03]: And by then, most players drafted in twenty seventeen, well, I've had a chance to at least show
[SPEAKER_03]: whether they can have one major league baseball game played.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_03]: And so from sixty five to two thousand sixty nine percent of the first one hundred picks hitters hitters that were hitters had had one hundred picks overall that were hitters had one more career MLB games play sixty nine percent almost seventy percent from sixty five to two thousand from two thousand to twenty seventeen only forty six percent of the first one hundred picks that were hitters had one or more career MLB games played.
[SPEAKER_03]: You got any context there's
[SPEAKER_02]: I've been thinking about this and trying to have a theory, purely theory, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know, because the thing that stands out about this is I would expect the number, like, if you ask me right now, at the top of the draft is the success level of high school hitters higher now than it was thirty years ago, I would say yes, and it would make sense.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's easier to evaluate players when you see players more often, and it's easier to evaluate players if you see players more often in comparison, you know, facing other similar talent players, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: With a challenge of, I always use this example, but Byron Buxton.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I talked to a twins.
[SPEAKER_02]: I talked to twin scouts about this year, year or two after he was drafted.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I said, what is the best
[SPEAKER_02]: picture that Byron Boxton faced in his senior year of high school.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's high school senior season said there was one guy who probably could have signed with the jukego who was eighty six eighty seven miles an hour and everyone else was worse than that right so you were trying in that spring you were trying to evaluate Byron Boxton and you were doing so
[SPEAKER_02]: where he was facing pictures who by pro-standards were throwing batting practice, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: And so you're trying to buy it with that.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if you said, well, why were they able to be confident about it?
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, we now have the showcase circuit, where you would seem better amongst in the summer before that, facing ninety-five plus on a pretty regular basis.
[SPEAKER_02]: That did not exist in nineteen seventy-five or eighty-five.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's a fascinating number to me.
[SPEAKER_02]: And again, maybe
[SPEAKER_02]: The thing I don't, you know, again, like I would even say there are more players who come up and come down for the majors, like when we say like just clearing that bar slightly.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_03]: And then I can take it a little further.
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_03]: So a hundred career hits, a hundred hundred career hits, just one hundred career MLB hits during those same breakdowns from sixty five to two thousand sixty one percent of the first hundred picks that were hitters.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I had a hundred or more career MLB hits.
[SPEAKER_03]: And then in two thousand to twenty seventeen, only forty one percent.
[SPEAKER_03]: of the first hundred picks at a hundred more career hits.
[SPEAKER_03]: And again, maybe some of them are were slow starters from twenty seventeen class, but still hundred hits, you know, there's no drafty.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's basically no drafty from a decade of those.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: That we're talking about.
[SPEAKER_02]: who's not at a hundred hits now and is going to get to a hundred hits.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that's really the reality of the whole thing and I know it's really it.
[SPEAKER_03]: These are why we do this.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is why I look at this data so much with shift.
[SPEAKER_03]: I just you want to figure out what is that trend?
[SPEAKER_03]: Why is that occurring and what's the underlying debt?
[SPEAKER_03]: Now to that end, I think I did a little bit of evaluation on
[SPEAKER_03]: certain teams that seem to just pick certain types of positional players and do the best with it.
[SPEAKER_03]: I found some really cool anomalies here.
[SPEAKER_03]: When I went back and I looked at all time, okay, and the first hundred picks, and I looked by position choice and team, which team selects position choices and has the most success, and it's really wild, because a lot of this is some of these are old and it's not, not recent, but just interesting what jumped out was an angel's first basement.
[SPEAKER_03]: like with age draft first baseman they have taken eight of them of any age of any of any school type and the first hundred picks overall and those eight have averaged over a thousand games played in MLB two sixty nine average nine hundred and four hits
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, guys like, while we join her, you know, Bruce Bocke, Jim Spencer, Eduardo Perez, Casey Kochman, CJ Kron.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, they, they seem to find first basement, Kron was twenty- eleven.
[SPEAKER_02]: The other guys wrote, yeah, Kron's twenty- eleven, so let's see out.
[SPEAKER_03]: That's, I mean, but you still think in the history, if you've only had done it eight times and you got a six out of eight strike rate of, you know, over a thousand games are supposed to it.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's pretty good.
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, you have to be convicted as we talked about earlier.
[SPEAKER_02]: That should be convicted to take that position high and they were convicted and it worked out really well for them over and over.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, over and over again, and even like the brewer short stops all time.
[SPEAKER_03]: They've taken twenty five on which, you know, that's a position people take a lot in the first hundred picks.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I mean, that group has averaged four hundred five hundred and forty one.
[SPEAKER_03]: Majorly games each with a like a two seventy seven batting average and over five hundred hits a piece.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, you're you're talking Robin, yeah, Paul Mauder and Gary Sheffield and JJ Hardy and
[SPEAKER_03]: you know, Gorman Thomas and Bill Spire's and Dave's of them and like Bruce Turing will recently.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's interesting when you look at players and I know it's hard to compare old versus new, but when you see draft averages like that, it's kind of fun to go back and group and say who does best identifying talent at that position that it's not really in the draft.
[SPEAKER_02]: It is fascinating.
[SPEAKER_02]: And so again, the things that stands out with this and this is something what we're talking about here.
[SPEAKER_02]: or kind of reverse engineering what teams are doing.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like in some ways, I don't want to make a selling.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're doing exactly what they're doing.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're not.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is not something where we've built our own draft model.
[SPEAKER_02]: But what we're trying to do here is identify things that are being like they're standing out in different teams models.
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, and when we say models, I would say at this point, I should say at least almost every team.
[SPEAKER_02]: has when you say a model, like what you're using a model to do for a draft for an MLD team is to take all these variables, all these inputs, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Because you have all these scouting looks for instance and they have scouting rays and they have a likelihood of reaching the ceiling, likelihood of this role, things like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Did you have all this
[SPEAKER_02]: analytical data, like, here's their average EV, here's their ninety percentile exit velocity, here's their swing and miss rate on fastballs in the zone, here's their chase rate on sliders out of the zone, all these things for all these players, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: And then, by the way, you have biomechanical information now in a lot of cases where it's like, this picture's delivery is like this, this hit or swing is like this, maybe you have forced plate data where you say this hitter generates this many
[SPEAKER_02]: newtons a force while swinging with torque and all these things right and what I mean is is you could literally and by the way you have the sport science and the medical side where it's like this picture we feel like has an increased risk of an elbow injury but this picture has a below average risk and they may not put a fifty-two percent or a forty-eight but they put them in buckets and all so you have all these
[SPEAKER_02]: different things that you are trying every team is out there is trying to draft the best players they can right and then you have also the asking price and then you have okay if we spend x number on this but then we can get this player but what about if we draft this player we spend x minus five hundred thousand here on this player that player just good and that will allow us to get a better player later
[SPEAKER_02]: The model idea, the idea of a model is to try to synthesize all those things, put different weights on different things, often by looking in the past at success that has been generated in the past.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is kind of a tech and baseball podcast a little bit as well, I guess.
[SPEAKER_02]: But, and then, which is a tricky part of that is you are looking at a lagging indicator because you cannot know
[SPEAKER_02]: Who drafted well in twenty seventeen like Corey just said until about twenty twenty five twenty twenty four and by the time you do that and you say hey we need to adjust the weights in our model to reflect what we've learned from seventeen but we're in a very different world in twenty twenty five and we won't know if the weights that we changed in our model in twenty twenty five we won't fully know if that was the proper changes to those until we can look back on the model in twenty thirty two
[SPEAKER_02]: You see where this gets complicated.
[SPEAKER_02]: And again, what we're trying to do here is just, we're just trying to basically look through and mine for the little nuggets of information there that teams leave behind, the little hints.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, and it looked a lot of it is probably esoteric nuggets that I think are very fast, they're fascinating for me.
[SPEAKER_03]: They may not have a true reason behind them, but they just get kind of, you look at them, you say it's hard to believe those types of things.
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, what we're doing here is also trying to inform or talk to the folks out there watching the draft on starting on Sunday night.
[SPEAKER_03]: They'll say, OK, here's what you probably won't see them take you.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, you probably won't see the Braves take a college third baseman because they haven't since nineteen seventy eight in the first hundred picks when Bob Porter went off the board one.
[SPEAKER_03]: So you probably won't see that as my guess.
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, you know, those are things that we want to say.
[SPEAKER_03]: You, you, you, you, you very well, probably won't see the Astros take a left handed picture right off the board in the first hundred, but you don't know.
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe they will this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, the thing about.
[SPEAKER_02]: They do, we will, we will absolutely let you know because they're like, hey, for the first time since Brady, and the Astros have done this.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, the Orioles, I mean, the angels will probably not take a college-out fielder because they haven't done it since Darren Ursted and ninety five and first hundred fixed.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I mean, it's just, you'll see these, these nuggets which are really interesting.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, and again, I want to, I want to, you know, in this pod to explain this a little further.
[SPEAKER_02]: We mentioned the shift AI tool and I just want to, you know, this is not an ad, you know, like we actually pay to use the shift AI tool.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is not something where I'm getting paid to say this, but what it allows me to do
[SPEAKER_02]: is yesterday I had this idea and it's just type in, like I can just type in, what is, you know, when is the last time that, you know, a team that this team, like I pick whatever of the thirty teams, has drafted a, you know, first basement in the top, you know, hundred picks or the streak, or I can say, give me the average age of every track, you know, all these things, I can do them now.
[SPEAKER_02]: without having to, again, I'm not saying I'm not capable of doing some of it, but I don't have to sit there and go, okay, should that be a left join?
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, wait, did I, did I can strain that properly?
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, I got a, I didn't include this in the aggregate function, so I got to include in the group by statement.
[SPEAKER_02]: And thankfully for most of you, you don't even,
[SPEAKER_02]: Don't even want to know what that means right there.
[SPEAKER_02]: Don't even try.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's the next way we have shift AI so that you can just type natural language and then it comes back with the answer and then JJ and I can go and do a podcast like this with a bunch of crazy nuggets.
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's where the technical folks to get this done.
[SPEAKER_02]: And what it'll allow us to do, what we will do on draft night is, you know, for instance, if, you know, the Cardinals take
[SPEAKER_02]: Eli Willitz in the first round for instance, or Jamie Arnold in the first round for instance, for the Cardinals, because I'm just thinking Cardinals right now for whatever we can then say, well, when is the last time that the Cardinals took a left hander in the first round?
[SPEAKER_02]: By the way, I will give you a little nugget on this that did not come from shift.
[SPEAKER_02]: This just came from, I'd recorded a podcast with Derek Gold from the St.
[SPEAKER_02]: Louis Post to spatula here to them.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it reminded me of something that I'd remember, which is, the Cardinals won the lottery, basically.
[SPEAKER_02]: They picked fifth this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: They picked seventh last year, dropped in J.J.
[SPEAKER_02]: Weatherhold.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you want to know, when you say, okay, well, when's the last time the Cardinals had backed a back top ten picks in the draft?
[SPEAKER_02]: The answer is never.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is the first time that they've ever.
[SPEAKER_02]: So whatever the Cardinals take this year, we can say, if they took a short stop this year, they say, the Cardinals have taken short stops in the top ten picks back to back years for the first time ever.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, that is true.
[SPEAKER_02]: It would also be true if they took a pitcher, if they took a catcher, whatever it is because they haven't had two top ten picks, which again, this is one of the things I'll give you know, the little bit of kind of the
[SPEAKER_02]: We've been talking more about pop-hundred picks, top-thirty picks like that, because, and poor quarries had to kind of deal with this, too.
[SPEAKER_02]: The draft-nomlicature of what a draft pick is called keeps changing.
[SPEAKER_02]: So this year, we have the first round.
[SPEAKER_02]: Then we'll have a PPI pickup prospect performance incentive pick for Bobby Witt Jr.
[SPEAKER_02]: For the Royals.
[SPEAKER_02]: Then we will have competitive balance round A, which will be revenue sharing receiving teams who get extra picks.
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, by the way, and then we'll have first-round picks again because you have teams like the Dodgers and the Met and all who move down ten spots because they signed a play a free agent over a certain amount and they are over the luxury tax threshold all that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, so if you said, what is the first round this year?
[SPEAKER_02]: you could say the top twenty eight picks, you could say the top twenty nine picks, you could say the top forty picks, or you could say the really weird one was the top twenty eight picks or twenty seven picks, and then you've got a skip sum and then it's there at pick thirty eight thirty nine and forty, which doesn't make any sense.
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's why we're going to bore for going forward like Cori did here referred to it as top hundred picks, top fifty picks, top thirty picks, because the pick
[SPEAKER_02]: Number remains the same, even if what rounded is may change from year to year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, thanks for reminding me to go update the model right now on that stuff, but it does, it does make you kind of lose your mind sometimes, but will we do in this Sunday night with you?
[SPEAKER_03]: You'll see a lot of our hormonal ads go to our hormonal ads Twitter.
[SPEAKER_03]: page, you'll see us produce a bunch of stands.
[SPEAKER_03]: And we're including a lot of those that be a total retweet.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to retweet a bunch of stuff that JD does as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: And we're working together in conjunction to get out nuggets and facts about every single pick as they happen and happen and continuing it on the next rounds Monday and Tuesday as well, just to keep everybody out there informed with these interesting little nuggets.
[SPEAKER_03]: JD, before we leave quick thing, was the last time the pirates had a sixth overall pick.
[SPEAKER_03]: And he thought, you know, do who they took?
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not hit off the top ahead.
[SPEAKER_02]: If you said one, two or three, I'll have at ease your answer.
[SPEAKER_03]: Only happen once they had the six pick and they took very long.
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's see if you can strike again.
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to go on a big ledge here.
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, whoever the Pirates pick at number six, he will not be their best number six pick up or your will not be very bond.
[SPEAKER_03]: So let's be honest there for sure.
[SPEAKER_02]: Awesome.
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel very comfortable when you say past performance does not indicate future results.
[SPEAKER_02]: In this case, I will say the past performance is so good that you will not match it with future results because there will probably not be any player grafted this year who will be better than Barry Bontos.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's why you're the draft guru JJ.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's that's that's that those are the bold proclamation that you came to this podcast in this video to see.
[SPEAKER_02]: Cory, again, this is always fun.
[SPEAKER_02]: We will keep doing this, but we will take it offline as we keep finding nuggets.
[SPEAKER_02]: And we will share them with you all.
[SPEAKER_02]: By the way, if you don't enjoy this, I will also have a story putting together some of these over going up over at Baseball America.com before the draft, but this video probably in podcasts will probably beat that out because it will get out first because
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm still trying to put get more of these.
[SPEAKER_02]: They are again.
[SPEAKER_02]: I could probably do fifty things that you did not know or, you know, may not know because they are.
[SPEAKER_02]: So a lot of fun stuff here.
[SPEAKER_02]: But with that, for Cory, I'm JJ.
[SPEAKER_02]: So long, everybody.