[SPEAKER_01]: Nick, no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners.
[SPEAKER_01]: Put one minute, you're up, half a minute, and soybeans in the next pool.
[SPEAKER_01]: Your kids don't go to college and they've reached a zester vent here with me.
[SPEAKER_02]: The revolutions start now.
[SPEAKER_02]: Starts.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have to pass the bills so that you can find out what is in it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Turn those machines back off.
[SPEAKER_02]: You are about to enter the Peter ship show.
[SPEAKER_02]: If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is the last stand on Earth.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hi everybody, it is Peter Schiff and I am back in my home here in Connecticut, my summer home.
[SPEAKER_01]: Got about another month or so out here before I go back to Puerto Rico.
[SPEAKER_01]: I did a lot of traveling as you know over the last month.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, the last podcast that I did, I recorded it from a cruise ship.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I've now been back for about a week.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was able to celebrate the fourth of July here in Connecticut.
[SPEAKER_01]: Had a very wonderful fireworks display.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, normally we're not normally, but on many occasions, you know, since I've been doing my podcasts,
[SPEAKER_01]: I've spent some time talking about the Fourth of July holiday and really, you know, why America is so unique among nations.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of talk about American exceptionalism, but very few people today understand just what made America so exceptional because those characteristics
[SPEAKER_01]: really don't apply today.
[SPEAKER_01]: We have lost a lot of what made us not just great, but so unique and so different from other people in other countries.
[SPEAKER_01]: In or not that I've got something against a lot of those other countries and the other people, but I just think that there was something unique about America that really made us special.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've lost that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And rather than give it away, because I have discussed it on many occasions, I want to encourage people to go to my YouTube channel and watch the Petershiff Independence Day remix.
[SPEAKER_01]: which in and of itself is about four or five years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what I did is it's an hour long and I went back to two or three other podcasts that I recorded or did live on the Fourth of July.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I really went into all of the unique aspects
[SPEAKER_01]: of what it meant to be an American and why the Fourth of July holiday was so special for Americans.
[SPEAKER_01]: So rather than kind of give that away,
[SPEAKER_01]: And since I've pretty well explained it in prior podcasts, I want to encourage people when you're finished listening to this to go to my YouTube channel.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're not a subscriber, subscribe.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm still trying to get six hundred thousand subscribers.
[SPEAKER_01]: I still haven't been able to get through that barrier.
[SPEAKER_01]: But subscribe to my YouTube channel and then watch that remix.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Peter ship fourth July remix and then when you're done share it with your friends because I think a lot of people would benefit from learning those lessons because unfortunately a lot of people don't learn those lessons in government schools because most of the teachers have no idea what it meant to be an American and don't understand our founding principles
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, also there's another video that you might want to check out.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you notice, if you look over my shoulder over here, you'll see that bronze bull.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I was given that award by Latino Wall Street.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was a very thrilled to get that award.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, they had a conference, their national conference in Florida, and it started the day the cruise ship arrived.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was a two-day conference, so I was there in time for the second day.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I came back, came there, and they gave me this award.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I really appreciate the work that they're doing at Latino Wall Street.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I couldn't believe how flattering the introduction was.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I've been introduced by a lot of people over the years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll think I've ever received an introduction quite so flattering.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, I didn't even realize how flattering it was while I was there.
[SPEAKER_01]: because I was talking kind of, you know, behind the scenes to somebody while she was introducing me.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it kind of missed it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it wasn't until I got the, you know, the video that I really saw because I might have thanked them even more than I did when I got the award.
[SPEAKER_01]: But they're good organization.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're great people and you know, I spoke or I didn't speak that much.
[SPEAKER_01]: They did a Q&A.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you can see the whole thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I put it up on my YouTube channel.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Peter Schiff is given the award by Latino Wall Street.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you can see them handing me this bronze ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I did joke about that.
[SPEAKER_01]: It should have been a bear.
[SPEAKER_01]: But of course, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: Even though I'm known for being a bear, I am bullish on a lot of things.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm bullish on golden silver more so now than ever before probably, but I'm bullish on my foreign stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been buying and I'm bullish on resources and I'm bullish on emerging markets.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not just a bear.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not bearish on everything.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm kind of known in the Wall Street community for those who do know me as the bull as the bear.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, a lot of people call me a permit bear, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So I thought maybe, you know, a bronze bear might have been more appropriate.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the bull is their motto, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Latino Wall Street, their mascot is the bull, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: They didn't choose the bear.
[SPEAKER_01]: So they gave me this bronze bull.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I've got it right in the back here.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's in my house in Connecticut.
[SPEAKER_01]: My plan is to bring it back to me to Puerto Rico.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's another thing I got to carry on a plane.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it'd be more appropriate to keep it there because that's where I'm closer to my Latino roots with this Latino Wall Street.
[SPEAKER_01]: a word.
[SPEAKER_01]: But anyway, I want to get into the the podcast today and and talk about a lot of stuff that's been going on in the past week or two weeks since I recorded that podcast
[SPEAKER_01]: on the ship.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think one of the most significant things that's been happening are the trade deals, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Just supposed trade deals that Donald Trump has been negotiating.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because as you remember, there was a ninety-day pause after the reciprocal tariffs resulted in a crash in a stock and bond market of the dollar, a crash that stocks recovered from, bonds
[SPEAKER_01]: mostly recovered and the dollar didn't recover at all.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, the dollar made new lows.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the reason that we got the recovery is because we got the pause.
[SPEAKER_01]: Trump called the tariffs off.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in fact, he earned the nickname of taco, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Trump always chickens out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Taco.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that the markets are expecting another helping of taco because Trump has been announcing some very bad deals.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the Nasdaq still finished that a new holiday, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: The markets are still rising despite the fact that we're now learning that the liberation day tariffs, the reciprocal tariffs are coming back.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they may not be quite as high as they were originally proposed, but they're almost there.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in some cases, they're higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: But they're much higher than what investors expected when they bought that dip.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the first sign of this happened last week, and I actually did a Twitter spaces or X spaces and discussed it on Friday.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I talked about the Vietnam deal.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that really shows where Trump is going.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it really exposes a lot of the BS that a lot of people were talking about when Trump first announced these terrorists.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because remember, there are a lot of free traders that normally would like terrorists.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so they had to justify
[SPEAKER_01]: what Trump was doing.
[SPEAKER_01]: What I recall with Larry Cudlow, I was listening to him on his show on Fox Business.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he was saying, look, Trump's a free trader.
[SPEAKER_01]: Trump wants free trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's just going to leverage these tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's coming up with a high tariff.
[SPEAKER_01]: hoping that other countries will drop their tariffs to zero.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we'll reciprocate and do the same thing, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: They tariff us zero.
[SPEAKER_01]: We tariff them zero because supposedly these high tariffs were there to reciprocate the high tariffs that other countries had on us except they didn't have high tariffs on us.
[SPEAKER_01]: They all make belief.
[SPEAKER_01]: But people thought, well, if other countries go to zero, well, maybe we'll go to zero.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's exactly what Vietnam did.
[SPEAKER_01]: Vietnam dropped their tariffs on US imports, basically to zero.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, they weren't very high before.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they were still less than ten percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, so they were there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you know, nine ten percent is nothing, but it's certainly not, you know, a big wall of protectionism that's going to keep our products out of their markets, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: But there were some tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, Vietnam said, okay, Trump will go down to zero.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now what did Donald Trump do?
[SPEAKER_01]: Did Donald Trump say great?
[SPEAKER_01]: That's exactly what I wanted.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're going to go to zero two and we're going to have free trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: No, that's not what Trump did.
[SPEAKER_01]: Trump raised tariffs on Vietnam to twenty percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: hardly zero.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's higher than the tariffs were on Vietnamese imports before liberation day.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if it turns out that goods came through Vietnam via China.
[SPEAKER_01]: So China sends goods to Vietnam and then Vietnam re-exports them to us, that's going to be a forty percent tariff.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, you know, I'm not really sure how we, you know, prove that what we're getting from Vietnam originated in China.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe there'll be some cheating to get the lower tariff.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we're going to be paying twenty to forty percent tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not zero.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not free trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, Vietnam lived up to its end of the bargain and we did not.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, of course, Trump
[SPEAKER_01]: is counting this as this big win.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because when you hear the way he presented it on true social and the way he talks to the media, he said, they're going to be paying twenty to forty percent tariffs and we're not paying any tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's got it backwards.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not paying our twenty to forty percent tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're paying those tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Vietnamese are paying no tariffs because their government lowered their tariffs to zero.
[SPEAKER_01]: So as a result of this negotiation, where we supposedly came out on top.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Vietnamese get to buy American products and their government is not going to tax them for doing that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So our products are now cheaper for the Vietnamese.
[SPEAKER_01]: That sounds like a win for them, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: If I was in Vietnam and the government said, hey, guess what?
[SPEAKER_01]: If you want to buy stuff from America, it's now cheaper.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, that's good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now I have extra money to buy something else because I didn't have to spend as much on that American product.
[SPEAKER_01]: On the other hand, Americans are now being told everything you buy from Vietnam is going to be maybe twenty to forty percent more expensive.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, sure, the business may not pass along a hundred percent of that tariff.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe the business will eat some of it and take a lower profit who knows.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Americans are going to be paying these tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we lost the deal.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not a good deal for us.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a rotten deal for us.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, maybe in Donald Trump's mind, it's a great deal because he gets to pretend that we won something because he gets to pretend that Vietnam is paying these tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: when they're not.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're paying the tariffs, but more important, it proves that the whole idea that we were trying to be sold, that Trump's real goal was a level of playing field of zero tariffs is complete BS.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in fact, more proof of that was just announced earlier today, Donald Trump announced that we're going to have fifty percent tariffs on Brazilian imports.
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't even have a train deficit with Brazil.
[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't even realize that, but we have a small surplus with Brazil.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now we want to make Americans pay a fifty percent tariff to buy Brazilian products.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Trump said that we're going to do this for political reasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: So because Trump has some kind of political beef
[SPEAKER_01]: with Brazil, he's going to make Americans pay fifty percent more to buy Brazilian products.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, why is he taking out his frustration on the Brazilians with the Americans?
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, this is part of his misunderstanding of who pays his tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we're not able to push off
[SPEAKER_01]: our costs on the rest of the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's just not the way tariffs work.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, in addition to the deal of David Vietnam, later than that, he made a deal with Japan and Korea.
[SPEAKER_01]: He didn't make a deal.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's good to me.
[SPEAKER_01]: He started sending out letters.
[SPEAKER_01]: Trump went public and said, look, nobody's making a deal with me.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not getting good deals.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just going to send out letters telling people what they're going to pay for the privilege of doing business in the United States.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just going to assign these tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what every country's going to pay.
[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's not.
[SPEAKER_01]: The country's aren't paying these tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: What he's doing with these letters.
[SPEAKER_01]: is he's informing other countries how much he's going to tax Americans when they buy their products.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what he's doing.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not telling them what they're going to pay.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's letting them know what we are going to pay.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he sent letters out to Japan and South Korea saying twenty-five percent tariffs
[SPEAKER_01]: on Americans who import stuff from Japan and Korea.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now even though their tariffs on us right now are almost not existing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the average tariff rate in South Korea is under two percent and in Japan it's under one percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So these are small numbers.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're there to raise revenue more than anything else.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not there to close down their markets to our products.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yet we're going to slap
[SPEAKER_01]: These countries are these twenty-five percent terrorists.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now of course Trump always likes to pretend that well there's these non-tariff barriers.
[SPEAKER_01]: No, there's not.
[SPEAKER_01]: They don't really exist.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're in his imagination.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just like all of the countries that were lining up to kiss his ass to make trade deals.
[SPEAKER_01]: I said that at the time.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right after Liberation Day, when Donald Trump came out and said they're lining up to kiss my ass, everybody is begging to make trade deals.
[SPEAKER_01]: I came out and said, I don't believe that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think anybody is begging him for anything.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think they're getting all these phone calls.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's all being made up or it's a big, big mid of Trump's imagination.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a dream or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now, right, almost two months later, Trump is saying, because we don't have any deals.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because nobody is negotiating what we're just going to send out these letters and let everybody know what they're going to be paying.
[SPEAKER_01]: That proves that I was right that it was all BS that people aren't rushing to deal make deals because there's no deals to be made.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is just all part of the Trump show.
[SPEAKER_01]: pretending that he's negotiating us into some economic boom that he's got to make deals with everybody.
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't need to make deals.
[SPEAKER_01]: We haven't been screwed over.
[SPEAKER_01]: They keep saying that well, we got to change all the rotten deals that were made by incompetent presidents of the past.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, you know, one of those deals was NAFTA, right, that he said was so great, right, that of course he puts tariffs now, more tariffs on Mexico and Canada, you know, even though he's the one that did the NAFTA deal, we're not the NAFTA, the USMCA, which was basically a rebrand NAFTA, and at the time he said it was the greatest trade deal ever, even though it was pretty close to the worst trade deal ever, which was the one that NAFTA replaced.
[SPEAKER_01]: But also Trump just announced, I think yesterday, fifty percent tariffs on on copper, which said copper prices, soaring by over ten percent over, I think, five, fifty a pound.
[SPEAKER_01]: No all time record high on copper, although copper has pulled back a bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: But again,
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not really a terrifying copper, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: It's Americans who want to buy copper.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, most Americans don't directly go out and buy a bunch of copper.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's companies that buy copper.
[SPEAKER_01]: Americans buy products that contain copper, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Or if they buy houses, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of copper in your house, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So you don't buy the copper.
[SPEAKER_01]: You just buy the house that has a lot of copper in it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But everybody who's buying products,
[SPEAKER_01]: that can take copper.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, those products are going to be more expensive because the copper is more expensive.
[SPEAKER_01]: Look, it doesn't matter why the cost goes up.
[SPEAKER_01]: If the cost goes up because of a tariff, it's the same thing as it going up for any other reason.
[SPEAKER_01]: Your energy costs go up, your wages go up, your insurance cost goes up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Whatever the cost of production is, that's going to be embedded into price.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, how can somebody think that businesses
[SPEAKER_01]: pass on all their costs except tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: They just decide what we're just going to eat those.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not how it works.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're indifferent.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're all costs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like the only time I think that a company may decide to eat some of the tariffs, like the exports.
[SPEAKER_01]: Might be if there's really a viable U.S.
[SPEAKER_01]: alternative.
[SPEAKER_01]: and they they don't want to lose out on their market share and they may be willing to accept slightly lower margins so eat some of it but in many cases there is no US domestic alternative we've got to buy an import and if all these countries are facing tariffs well they all pass them on because it doesn't put anybody at a competitive disadvantage because everybody's got to build tariffs
[SPEAKER_01]: into their price structure.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the bottom line is prices are going up.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a lot of people are looking at the tariffs we have so far and they're saying, oh, you see the CPI has to really shut up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So tariffs aren't causing inflation.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, tariffs don't cause inflation directly indirectly.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's going to be a lot more inflation as a result of these tariffs because of what the Fed does to monetize the larger deficits that the weaker economy
[SPEAKER_01]: And in part, the tariffs are going to weaken the economy are going to produce.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the fact that these tariffs will trap more of our dollars in the US.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll export fewer dollars abroad.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so those dollars won't come back to buy our bonds and to buy our stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: They'll stay in America to buy whatever products and services we have, bidding up those prices.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we are going to see higher inflation.
[SPEAKER_01]: But one of the main reasons
[SPEAKER_01]: That a lot of the goods that are impacted by the tariffs haven't seen bigger price increases yet is because there is a lag, a lot of the goods that Americans have been buying the last couple of months were imported before the tariffs were in effect.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so businesses didn't have to pay the cost yet on those goods.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, now, you know, more goods are coming in that have been subject to the tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now you're going to start to see those higher costs being passed on to the consumer.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, initially to businesses are not really sure how long the tariffs are going to be there rather than raising my prices.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I'll eat it a little bit of it now just to wait and see, but if the tariffs are still there, well, okay, I'm going to pass them on.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now we'll see what happens because the new deadline for all these tariffs is August first.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Trump extended the deadlines.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was initially two months, which was supposed to be up, I think next week, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: That was going to be two months from Liberation Day, because Liberation Day was, or three months, ninety days.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was a ninety-day pause.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Liberation Day was April second, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: The new April Fool's Day, and then he called it off like a week later.
[SPEAKER_01]: So call that like, maybe it was like April ninth.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so July, that's about where we are.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is when all the reciprocal terrorists were supposed to come back.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so he cockled out again at least till August first.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Trump came out and said, that's it.
[SPEAKER_01]: August first is the deadline and we're not moving it again.
[SPEAKER_01]: So either we have new deals or everybody pays the rate that I assign.
[SPEAKER_01]: And all these new deals, the twenty-five percent tariffs on Japan and Korea, fifty percent Brazil, I guess all the other, he's announced, you know, I don't know, it does in other countries.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been hit with tariffs from between twenty and forty percent, meaning Americans are going to be paying twenty to forty percent tariffs, not all these countries.
[SPEAKER_01]: But those letters have gone out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I think the only reason the stock market is still making new highs.
[SPEAKER_01]: is because nobody believes him anymore.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like, you know, the boy who cried, carefree.
[SPEAKER_01]: People think it doesn't matter what Trump says, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: There's, there's not going to be any cares.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe it's kind of like the abstine files, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, I'm going to release them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to release them.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, they don't even exist.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's nothing to release.
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't even ask me about that topic.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't believe you even care about this.
[SPEAKER_01]: Why are we still getting questions, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: He quickly transitioned that out of abstine and maybe people think, well, the same thing's going to happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: with with the tariffs right he's talking about he's making a lot of noise but at the end of the day when it comes to tariffs he is all bark and no bite well I don't know I mean Trump's got an ego I don't think he likes being called a taco I don't think he likes
[SPEAKER_01]: being called a chicken that he's chickening out.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I remember if you ever watched, you know, back to the future, but Marty didn't like being called chicken, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And so he would do some crazy things if you call them chicken.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, you know, I mean, maybe he's a bit like Marty McFly.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I don't think Donald Trump likes to be known as a chicken.
[SPEAKER_01]: And even though the markets tanked, the fact that they're not tanking now,
[SPEAKER_01]: May, you know, full Trump into thinking that he can have these tariffs and see the market is going up, even though I've announced these high tariffs, the market's still going up.
[SPEAKER_01]: He may not understand that the market's going up because nobody believes him, that everybody thinks he's going to check it out.
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, he may just have to prove everybody how much courage he has, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: That he's not a chicken, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And he may let these tariffs go into effect.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in that respect, the markets are playing literally a game of chicken.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because if Trump doesn't blink, if we actually do get these tariffs, I think we repeat what happened in April.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're going down in the stock market, we're going down in the bond market, and we're going down in the dollar, and we're going up in gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: In the meantime,
[SPEAKER_01]: people should be buying gold, they should be buying silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we go up regardless of what happens.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I know a lot of people are still worried about about buying gold silver, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: There are people that are still waiting for pullback.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, I don't want to buy a thirty three hundred dollar gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to buy thirty six dollars silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, if you don't want to buy thirty three hundred gold, be prepared to buy thirty six hundred dollar gold or four thousand dollar gold, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because it's more likely to go up than down.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're near the bottom in both gold and silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: So don't pressure luck.
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't hope for a big drop.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you could buy more just buy more right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you don't own any gold in silver, well, you better make sure and buy some right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, by the way, I gotta take a quick break.
[SPEAKER_01]: I almost forgot.
[SPEAKER_01]: We gotta do a commercial.
[SPEAKER_01]: So no one going anywhere to stick around and I'm gonna continue this podcast at the other side of this break.
[SPEAKER_01]: Come back here with what I was discussing on the... I don't know, I keep getting these texts coming in.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully nobody is hearing those.
[SPEAKER_01]: I gotta hold on.
[SPEAKER_01]: I gotta tell my kid to stop texting me.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully that stops it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But anyway, so I want to move on from the trade and talk about a few other things that happened.
[SPEAKER_01]: One of them is the jobs number that came out last week.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, you know, there was a lot of hype about this strong jobs report, you know, more proof that we've got this booming economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we didn't have a strong jobs report.
[SPEAKER_01]: According to the government, we created a hundred and forty-seven thousand jobs
[SPEAKER_01]: And in the month of July or June, June, hundred to forty seven thousand.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not a lot of jobs.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it was more jobs than they expected by a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: I forget what the expectation was now because it was a while ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it was a small beat.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there was a small upward revision to the prior month.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, before we got the number, people were probably looking for a week number because we got the ADP number a day earlier.
[SPEAKER_01]: The jobs numbers came out early last week because the markets were closed on Friday for the fourth of July.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we came out on Thursday, but we got the ADP number the prior day.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there was a loss of thirty three thousand jobs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are private sector jobs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a loss of thirty three thousand jobs.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that set the stage for maybe a week non-farm number.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we didn't, we got a bigger number than they expected.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's still not a strong number.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is a low number, a hundred forty seven thousand jobs.
[SPEAKER_01]: But when you look behind the curtain, it's even worse.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because half the jobs were government jobs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not the federal government.
[SPEAKER_01]: State and local governments hired about half those people.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not good.
[SPEAKER_01]: These aren't productive jobs.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not making anything, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: They're just gumming up the works.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now they take their paychecks and they got a by-products that were made in China and other places.
[SPEAKER_01]: So they run up to trade deficits, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you add to the government jobs, jobs that are kind of related to the government, like healthcare and social services, because a lot of those jobs are basically spending government money.
[SPEAKER_01]: So government is keeping them going.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, they're not productive jobs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ninety-two percent of all the jobs that were created were either in government directly or indirectly through healthcare and social services.
[SPEAKER_01]: The private sector job creation was much weaker than had expected.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, Donald Trump is supposed to be leading the comeback in the private sector.
[SPEAKER_01]: And they're, we're doing poor.
[SPEAKER_01]: And manufacturing continue to shed jobs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we don't have a manufacturing boom.
[SPEAKER_01]: If anything, it's a manufacturing bust and it's going to get worse with tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: The tariffs are going to hurt manufacturing overall because they are going to increase the cost of a lot of the components that manufacturers are
[SPEAKER_01]: are bringing in.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're a company in the US and you import a lot of components that go into your products, your costs are going to go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're going to be less competitive and you're going to lose sales and you're ultimately going to be a smaller business, lay some people off.
[SPEAKER_01]: So these job numbers, I think, again, is BS.
[SPEAKER_01]: People got excited about the four point one percent unemployment rate again.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's meaningless if you look at the use six rate, which is closer to being accurate, but still understands it.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was seven point seven.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not a low unemployment rate, but if you factored in a lot of the discouraged people who are no longer picked up in the use six, because they've been discouraged for more than a year, you're looking at double digital unemployment.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm sure if we still measured unemployment today, the way we did in the seventies and eighties, if we had the same methodology,
[SPEAKER_01]: We would have an official unemployment rate north at ten percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's no way that you can claim that we have low unemployment.
[SPEAKER_01]: We have high unemployment.
[SPEAKER_01]: We have a weak labor market.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why we, you know, the economy is actually weak.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why Trump got elected.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why we have these huge deficits.
[SPEAKER_01]: Only by the way, another thing that happened between my last podcast and this one was the big, beautiful bill better known as the budget busting bill.
[SPEAKER_01]: or, you know, the big ugly bill or wherever you want to define it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that got passed.
[SPEAKER_01]: They managed to get it passed.
[SPEAKER_01]: The house in the Senate.
[SPEAKER_01]: strict party lines.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, in the Senate, J.D.
[SPEAKER_01]: Vance had a cast the tie breaking vote.
[SPEAKER_01]: It squeak through the house and Donald Trump signed it in his ceremony on the Fourth of July.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is this this is great news, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to sign this great bill on Independence Day because somehow I'm making Americans more independent
[SPEAKER_01]: by consigning them to a future of debt and inflation.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's what this bill does, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: It says aptly named as the inflation reduction act.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's nothing beautiful about this bill.
[SPEAKER_01]: The only thing honest is the fact that it's big, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: It was over nine hundred pages.
[SPEAKER_01]: But because of this bill, the budget deficits will be higher over the next several years than they would have been without the bill.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the bill builds on the Biden budget deficits and makes them bigger.
[SPEAKER_01]: So all of these Republicans who campaigned about how damaging the Biden deficits were, who blamed all the inflation on the reckless spending of Biden and the deficit spending, they voted to preserve
[SPEAKER_01]: all of that spending and all those deficits, but not just to preserve them, but to expand them, to make them bigger, to increase government spending and to increase the deficits.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, yes, within the bill, there are tax cuts.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, Americans will see more dollars in their paychecks, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, some Americans will see a bigger boost than others.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we do have the no tax on on tips.
[SPEAKER_01]: Of course, you still got to pay FICA on your tips.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think there's a cap there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe it's twenty or twenty five thousand a year.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're allowed to earn.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think there's going to be a lot more cheating.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think people are going to be a lot less likely to report their tips even if they exceed the minimum.
[SPEAKER_01]: because I think no one's even going to be auditing the tips.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now that there's no real income tax to be gained, I mean, maybe people will miss out on the social security tax.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think, you know, I think waiters and bartenders and, you know, models on only fans or whoever is living off a tips.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think to the extent that they were reporting honestly in the past and maybe a lot of people were cheating.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they're just going to cheat even more.
[SPEAKER_01]: But a lot of people are going to get
[SPEAKER_01]: some tax relief, and of course part of the tax relief is they're going to avoid a tax hike, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because the first round of the Trump tax cuts would have expired if they didn't vote to renew them.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in fact, they expanded on, especially with salt.
[SPEAKER_01]: That deduction is now up to forty thousand instead of ten.
[SPEAKER_01]: although it's sunsets I think in six years but who cares about six years now or five years from now rather all that really matters is what happens this year next year that's why most of the cuts don't even count although apparently the work requirements for Medicaid for the able-bodied originally in the house version they didn't kick in until
[SPEAKER_01]: twenty twenty nine.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think now they kick in in twenty twenty six so not as bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: But there's still all sorts of ways to skirt the requirements.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I really don't think it amounts to much.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's unfortunately it lets the Democrats pretend that they're slashing benefits and throwing grandma wherever out in this, you know, over a cliff, you know, that, you know, they stood and said, hey, we know we have to vote against this bill because it's
[SPEAKER_01]: Medicaid and the Republicans are pretending that this is a great deficit reducing bill and we're voting to make government smaller and to solve our fiscal problems when they're not doing it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Rand Paul in the Senate voted against it.
[SPEAKER_01]: You had Massey in the House voting against it.
[SPEAKER_01]: They voted against it because they increased the debt, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: But most of the other Republicans didn't care.
[SPEAKER_01]: They all stand in lockstep.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if this bill, identical bill was proposed by a Republican president, I mean a Democratic president, and a Democratic Congress, I bet if you didn't change your word of the bill, if it was exactly the same.
[SPEAKER_01]: You'd pretty much have all the Republicans being against it.
[SPEAKER_01]: They'd be saying, this is a disaster.
[SPEAKER_01]: This makes a deficit bigger.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is reckless and irresponsible.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the Democrats would be loving it.
[SPEAKER_01]: They'd be talking about it.
[SPEAKER_01]: How it was a great bill.
[SPEAKER_01]: It preserves all the big government programs, preserves Medicaid, Medicare, Obamacare.
[SPEAKER_01]: They would like to bill if they proposed it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it shows that there's really not much difference.
[SPEAKER_01]: You got Elon Musk now who'll get a is very frustrated and rightly so, by the fact that Dosh has gone and it's not going to do anything.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was all part of the Trump show I talked about that before and he wants to start a new party, the American party, for the frustrated middle.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no room in the middle.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Republicans and Democrats are so close together, you can't get in between them.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we don't need a third party to thread that tiny needle to get in the middle of two basically socialist parties that want big government and just fight over the edges.
[SPEAKER_01]: The extremes, well, I want to have a little bit of difference here or a little bit there.
[SPEAKER_01]: We need a party that's way to the right
[SPEAKER_01]: of the Democrats and the Republicans.
[SPEAKER_01]: Assuming that way to the right means less government, less government when it comes to the social issues, less government when it comes to the economic issues and fiscal responsibility.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because this big, uh, beautiful, budget-busting bill
[SPEAKER_01]: which Trump and the Republicans are touting as the biggest tax cut in U.S.
[SPEAKER_01]: history is actually the biggest tax hike in U.S.
[SPEAKER_01]: history because it grows the deficit more than any other bill in history.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, they raised the debt ceiling by five trillion just to get us through the next two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
[SPEAKER_01]: If this really was a good bill that was going to reduce the deficit, why they have to raise the debt ceiling by five trillion?
[SPEAKER_01]: is because they know that it's going to increase the deficit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know what, I think it's going to increase it more than they think.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't even believe we're going to make it to two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: We may not even make it to the midterm elections before we bump up against that sealant.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we already raised it that by five trillion, which would mean it goes from thirty seven trillion to forty two trillion.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's where it'll be when we hit the ceiling again.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the fact that they raised it that high, I mean,
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the biggest increase.
[SPEAKER_01]: in the death ceiling we've ever had, and it passed without a single Democratic vote.
[SPEAKER_01]: So who's the party for big government when almost every Republican in the House and Senate voted to raise a death ceiling by five trillion dollars over the objection of every Democrat, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is not a good look for the Republicans.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's certainly not a good for the country.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, yes, Elon Musk is frustrated, but, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't need a party in the middle, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: We need a party that actually is going to level with a public and not pretend that a tax hike is a tax cut.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the reason that I consider it a tax hike is because government spending goes way up.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the cost of government is what it spends.
[SPEAKER_01]: not what it collects in taxes because every dime the government spends has to be paid for.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if the government spending goes up, government costs more money.
[SPEAKER_01]: Where does government get the money from the public?
[SPEAKER_01]: So if the government costs more the public has to pay more.
[SPEAKER_01]: So how are we going to pay?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, if they're cutting our income taxes, how are we going to pay?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, one way is tariffs, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: We're getting these tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll earn more money.
[SPEAKER_01]: But when we spend that money, we're going to have to pay higher prices because of the tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the bigger way we're going to pay is inflation.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because not only are prices going to go off because of tariffs,
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's just, you know, the imports really all the price to go up because of inflation because the tariffs are going to help weaken an already weak economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, interest rates are going up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Donald Trump wants a new Fed chairman to cut interest rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, when they cut interest rates long term rates can just easily go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, they will go up and that means mortgage rates go up and all courts of sorts of debt costs go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we're going to have a recession.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to have more money printing, more inflation, and that is going to, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: a B attacks hike, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because we're going to pay for this excessive deficit spending through higher prices, a higher cost of living.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the inflation tax.
[SPEAKER_01]: And one of the reasons that Trump got elected is he promised to lower the inflation tax.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, instead of lowering the inflation tax, he is raising the inflation tax.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now,
[SPEAKER_01]: Another thing I wanted to talk about and show you the dangers of democracy.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mentioned earlier about what it means to be an American, and I don't want to really
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, give away too much of that because I want everybody to go and watch the video of the remix.
[SPEAKER_01]: But America was formed as a republic.
[SPEAKER_01]: And one of the reasons that the founding fathers
[SPEAKER_01]: created a republic, and not a democracy was on display in the Democratic mayoral primary in New York, where Zohan Mandami won the Democratic nomination, and I assume he's a front runner now to become the next mayor of New York City.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is going to be a terrible outcome for New York.
[SPEAKER_01]: Although I'm not exactly sure how much of his Marxist agenda he can actually implement in New York City, because I do believe maybe there will be some way of the governor or the city council to put some breaks.
[SPEAKER_01]: on what he does.
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, once he gets elected, he may not want to completely destroy the city that elected him because that he'd get blamed, assuming he understands that a lot of this socialist communist crap that he's selling maybe it played well for votes.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he doesn't want to actually implement it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the point I'm making is people voted for this nonsense.
[SPEAKER_01]: That is to problem with democracy because people will be dumb enough to vote in a communist.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so why would you want that?
[SPEAKER_01]: You would want to protect
[SPEAKER_01]: the country from that kind of outcome.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, people who are such fans at democracy, hey, as long as somebody is democratic elected, well, I'm going to support it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, who's going to support the democratic election of a communist?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, if you voting communism, you still get communism, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't matter that, you know, the majority of people voted for it.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's still bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: It just as bad as if it was forced on you, you know, by a gunpoint,
[SPEAKER_01]: if your neighbor's voted for communism, you know, your justice screwed.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so the idea is not to have elections when they could produce that kind of outcome.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, some of the crazy things that this guy is proposing.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, one of them is he wants to have the government, the city, open up a bunch of grocery stores.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I mean, first of all, nothing this city runs, runs smoothly, runs officially.
[SPEAKER_01]: he wants the city to run grocery stores because apparently the private capitalists who own the grocery stores now are ripping off their customers right because they're gouging them because they're making a profit and so if the city could just run the grocery stores they won't have to make a profit and they can pass on the savings to the shoppers well first of all
[SPEAKER_01]: The lowest margin business is probably in the city are the grocery stores and the supermarkets.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they mark stuff up like one or one, two, three percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So even if you took all the profit out of the grocery business, prices would go down by two or three percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you took all the profit out of the grocery business, there'd be no grocery stores because the grocery stores need to make a profit.
[SPEAKER_01]: They need to make money because they're doing a lot of work.
[SPEAKER_01]: They've got to get paid for their effort or they're not going to do it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you take the profit out of grocery stores, there's no grocery stores.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if the government operates the grocery stores, right, and does it without a profit, you think they're going to be as efficient as private owners in a competitive market?
[SPEAKER_01]: No, the cost of food, even if the government doesn't make a profit, their costs are going to be so much higher because they don't have any incentives to keep the costs down.
[SPEAKER_01]: Costs are going to skyrocket.
[SPEAKER_01]: People are going to pay a lot more to buy food from the government than they pay to buy it from the private sector.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, like one of the things that he was talking about was, well, you know, the government owned grocery stores aren't going to pay any rent.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, what are they just gonna steal the land from the landlords?
[SPEAKER_01]: How do I mean, they're not gonna pay any rent?
[SPEAKER_01]: How are they gonna get a space in the city rent free?
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, maybe the city already owns the property, are they gonna kick out of paying tenant so they can stick in a government-owned grocery store and not charge rent, but the taxpayers still pay for it one way or another.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you're gonna do that, if you think grocery stores should have free rent,
[SPEAKER_01]: why not just go to the grocery stores that already exist and give them free rent right although you can't give them free rent the government have to pay their rent because otherwise you're stealing money from the landlords which is perfectly willing to do anyway because he wants rent control he wants to make sure that nobody can raise their rent well what's going to happen if nobody can raise your rent well you know there's not going to be a houses people there's not going to be you know there's going to be a huge shortage of of rents just like in these government own grocery stores
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the things that's going to happen, especially if they try to sell these groceries at lower prices, even though it costs them more, you're going to have long lines.
[SPEAKER_01]: People are going to be lining up for bread and government-owned grocery stores in New York, just like they lined up for government-owned for bread and government-owned grocery stores into Soviet Union.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, do you think that if
[SPEAKER_01]: the communists in New York City take over the grocery stores.
[SPEAKER_01]: Are they going to run them any better than the communists?
[SPEAKER_01]: You took them over the Soviet Union?
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the same ideology.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to have the same outcome, which is long lines and empty shelves.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I saw somebody put up a meme.
[SPEAKER_01]: The difference between capitalism and socialism is under capitalism.
[SPEAKER_01]: The bread lines up for people, and they just showed somebody going to a store, and there's all different kinds of bread that you have to choose from.
[SPEAKER_01]: So many brands, so many kinds, the shelves are full, so the bread is lining up, and the people get the pick, which bread they want.
[SPEAKER_01]: But under communism, the people are lining up for bread, because you have a long line of people, and you got some stale white bread.
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't have a bunch of choices.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have one kind of bread, and it's probably not even fresh, and you're waiting online for hours.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got another crazy idea.
[SPEAKER_01]: He wants to make all the buses free.
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't have to pay to get on a bus.
[SPEAKER_01]: Apparently a lot of people don't pay now.
[SPEAKER_01]: They just hop on and they, and same thing with the subways.
[SPEAKER_01]: They just jump to turn style.
[SPEAKER_01]: Apparently that's acceptable now, which is probably part of the problem.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you officially make
[SPEAKER_01]: All the buses free.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's gonna happen?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, the buses are gonna be too crowded because people are just gonna ride them, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: If they don't cost you anything, people are gonna ride buses even if they don't need the bus.
[SPEAKER_01]: People might be just living on the buses, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: You can just stay on there and just go on indefinitely.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you'll have a free bus, but the bus is gonna be so crowded that just not even any room to sit down, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you want to have people paying to use the bus so that they use it sparingly, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: If you have to go ten blocks,
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, I'm going to walk.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to pay for the bus, but if the bus is free, well, hell, I'm going to watch that I walk anywhere.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just going to hop on a bus.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, whatever is free is going to be over utilized.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you have to have a price to discourage excess use.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the people who actually need to ride the bus can get a seat, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So all of these ideas are these concrete, made me ideas.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the thing is, the voters bought it.
[SPEAKER_01]: The voters in the Democratic Party
[SPEAKER_01]: bought this nonsense and what scares me about this is it's a little bit of a window into into what's coming because as I've been saying the voters who voted for Trump the maga movement and the you know the in between you know the independence
[SPEAKER_01]: Because they voted for Trump because they believed it was going to make America great again.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was going to get rid of inflation.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was going to end all the wars.
[SPEAKER_01]: We were really going to have an economic boom.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to be very disappointed when Trump finishes his term and inflation is higher much higher than when he started unemployment is higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: And they're in much worse economic shape than they were before he was elected.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's going to make it very difficult for any Republican.
[SPEAKER_01]: to succeed him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even a guy like Iran, maybe who can completely distance himself from the collapse, because he voted against some of this stuff, I think it's still too close to comfort.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that
[SPEAKER_01]: The Democrats are going to have a much easier path to the White House if the economy is lousy and the Republican Party gets to blame.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what kind of Democrat?
[SPEAKER_01]: It could be the same type of Democrat that just one in New York.
[SPEAKER_01]: This could be a look at what's going to happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is like the AOC, the Zahann Mandani.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: AOC, I mean, she's ecstatic about this outcome, or Bernie Sanders, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: It's that wing of the Democratic Party.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, just like maybe Trump kind of redefined the Republican Party to some new populist brand, well, what's populism in the Democratic Party is really a rebranded socialism.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that is where we're coming or that's the direction that we're headed.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is why people really need to prepare their portfolios.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, you need to get more into gold and silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: You need to get into these foreign stocks because all of this is going to be a disaster for the dollar.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we got the Fed minutes that came out earlier today.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you still have some of the Fed governors who are hesitant about cutting rates, but most of them are still expect a couple of rate cuts between now and the end of the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: It should be obvious that rates need to go higher, especially
[SPEAKER_01]: Now that the big beautiful bill has been passed because the big beautiful bill is a massive Keynesian fiscal stimulus.
[SPEAKER_01]: It increases the deficits, but it's not in a way that increases economic growth.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Republicans are saying, oh, we're going to get more growth because the tax cuts.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not the way it's going to work.
[SPEAKER_01]: Tax cuts promote growth if they promote savings and investment because that's what grows the economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Most of these tax cuts in a big beautiful bill don't do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: They are targeted to increase spending, to increase consumption, put more money in the pockets of the middle class and the lower class who are more likely to spend their money.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that increase spending doesn't grow the economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it may grow the trade deficits.
[SPEAKER_01]: It may grow debt in general.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's not going to mean we're going to have a larger economy that produces more stuff because we're not getting more savings and more investment out of these tax cuts because they simply leave more money in people's pockets to spend.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the government is not cutting back.
[SPEAKER_01]: See, if the government cuts spending and we replaced government spending with private sector spending, that'd be great.
[SPEAKER_01]: But they're not doing that.
[SPEAKER_01]: The government isn't cutting spending.
[SPEAKER_01]: The government's going to spend more.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the government's going to spend more.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now the people are going to spend more because they're going to pay less in taxes.
[SPEAKER_01]: So everyone's going to be spending more.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we're not producing more.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's just more inflation.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to print more money.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to have a bigger bubble in this economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the problem is I think the air is already coming out of this bubble.
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot more is going to come out.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what the Fed should be doing is trying to counteract the big beautiful bill that canes the stimulus with tighter monetary policy.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the Fed is trying to claim or our power is saying, hey, the reason we're not cutting rates is because we're worried about the terrorists.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not the reason not to cut rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: He should be more worried about the larger deficits produced by the big beautiful bill.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those tax cuts are the reason that we need to hike rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: We need to offset
[SPEAKER_01]: the fiscal stimulus with a monetary set of it right if we're going to have looser monetary policy we need I mean looser fiscal policy we need tighter monetary policy but that's not what we're going to get we're going to end up with loose fiscal policy and then a return to even looser monetary policy that's an inflationary cocktail and so if you thought
[SPEAKER_01]: a Biden inflation was bad.
[SPEAKER_01]: Where do you get a load of Trump inflation?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's going to be a whole lot worse.
[SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, I think that probably wraps it up for today's podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, if you like the podcast, don't forget to give me the thumbs up or make a comment.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're watching on YouTube, you know, you can make a comment in there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like to read them and sometimes I respond to them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got to go through them fast.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you do comment, keep it short and concise.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sometimes people leave a really long comment and I can't even read it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even though you probably put down some really thoughtful stuff, if it's too long, I don't have the time.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you gotta be really concise.
[SPEAKER_01]: Think of like a post on X, even shorter than that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like two sentences.
[SPEAKER_01]: So really try to shrink down whatever you're saying.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then I got a better chance of reading it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe other people have time to read them if they're longer.
[SPEAKER_01]: But let me know that you liked it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again,
[SPEAKER_01]: subscribe to the YouTube channel.
[SPEAKER_01]: I really love to see my channel get over six hundred thousand subscribers.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I'm getting very close now to one point two million.
[SPEAKER_01]: Less than fifteen thousand away from one point two million X followers.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'd like to get, you know, get a little bit of more more above a million than one point one.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're not currently following me on on X, make sure and do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Get out of gonna be here in Connecticut.
[SPEAKER_01]: for at least another month, month and a half.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I'll still, I'm not going to do as many podcasts as I would be doing if I was in my studio in Puerto Rico.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, by the way, people have commented that, hey, the quality is better here.
[SPEAKER_01]: It hasn't do with the way I'm recording it, even though I'm just using my cell phone.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we're going to start doing it the same way.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm redoing the pot.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've got all these new cameras coming in.
[SPEAKER_01]: When I get back to Puerto Rico, the quality is going to be much better.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's going to be better than what it is right now, doing it for myself on on my laptop.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's going to be a lot better than it used to be.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I know I've been getting teased a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, why don't you have better quality on your video on your podcast or your sound?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I mean,
[SPEAKER_01]: All that is coming.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm not a professional broadcaster.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I do this in my spare time.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm really more, you know, I'm an asset manager.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got, you know, I do golden silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not, you know, really a broadcaster.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I mean, I guess, yeah, people expected a little bit more from me.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I'm delivering that.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just taking some time to put everything together.
[SPEAKER_01]: So when I get back up, this is going to be about mid August.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're going to be having a much better quality.
[SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, let's see what happens.
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think we're going to get a lot of fireworks in the markets as we get closer to the end of the month.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if I'm right, and if the chicken, you know, Trump doesn't want to be chicken again, and he actually sticks to his guns.
[SPEAKER_01]: And these tariffs actually see the light a day.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then the fireworks aren't going to be for fourth of July.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to be to stock market.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to be in the bond market.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you want to make sure you take advantage of the strength that you're seeing in the US stock market now to sell US stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: sell you off the bonds and get fully positioned in foreign stocks, foreign bonds, precious metals, gold and silver mining stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we saw some work in solidation, royal gold, bought out, I think, a never mining and a copper company.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is just again, we're going to see a lot more consolidation in this industry because the companies are still so incredibly cheap.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even though they've gone up, it still makes a lot of sense for companies that have so much cash to buy out other companies rather than spending money on expiration and development.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can buy them that much cheaper on Wall Street than you can, you know, going out and looking for it in the real world.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I expect more of this.
[SPEAKER_01]: But all of this is good for investors in these mighty stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: So take advantage of this weakness in both the underlying metals and the stocks to get positioned before the end of the month when ugly reality of these tariffs may set in and catch a lot of investors by surprise.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bye for now.