WEBVTT 00:04.891 --> 00:14.189 [SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues. 00:14.209 --> 00:23.867 [SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion. 00:24.388 --> 00:27.895 [SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross. 00:29.562 --> 00:58.320 [SPEAKER_01]: what's up everyone welcome in to another episode of the toolshed podcast brought to you by Rotobollar this is episode 424 thank you for joining me I'm your host Eric Cross you can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB and the show is at toolshed pod sorry for the late episode this week you know releasing on Saturday which might be the first ever toolshed episode on 00:58.756 --> 01:04.142 [SPEAKER_01]: Hard to remember with all the episodes at this point, but my voice was not the greatest yesterday. 01:04.182 --> 01:17.176 [SPEAKER_01]: I was just going to over a cold and oftentimes my voice is kind of like the last thing to come back and after doing a podcast Tuesday night and a podcast on Wednesday night. 01:18.057 --> 01:25.185 [SPEAKER_01]: My voice just was not great yesterday, so it's out of the way today, staying or getting a nice little weekend podcast here. 01:25.672 --> 01:42.870 [SPEAKER_01]: recording this on the 5th of December feels weird that it's already December in that 2026 is right around the corner, but I still plenty to talk about hot stove is heating up my red socks making some moves here, you know, a few other Toronto's making moves. 01:42.850 --> 01:53.407 [SPEAKER_01]: So no huge signings yet outside of a Josh nailer, but And hopefully we get some soon with the winter meetings coming up on next few days. 01:54.148 --> 01:59.256 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we see Schworber, Tucker, Alonzo, some of those dominoes start to fall. 01:59.236 --> 02:02.940 [SPEAKER_01]: We shall see but not talking hot stove this episode. 02:02.960 --> 02:08.908 [SPEAKER_01]: I want to talk some pitchers to buy or sell right now in dinosaur leagues. 02:09.328 --> 02:12.091 [SPEAKER_01]: You know obviously you still make some trades and prove your team for 2026. 02:12.492 --> 02:19.360 [SPEAKER_01]: So I have nine names total just doing pitchers today on the MLB side. 02:19.861 --> 02:25.868 [SPEAKER_01]: You know obviously I'll do some another episode with hitters, another episode with prospects, y'all know like I kind of cover it all 02:25.848 --> 02:28.333 [SPEAKER_01]: But today just MLB pictures. 02:28.414 --> 02:44.869 [SPEAKER_01]: I got nine names total three cells and six buys But before I hop into all of that the usual housekeeping if you enjoy the pod, please rate and review You can find all of my content either on rotoballor or over on my patreon 02:44.849 --> 02:57.189 [SPEAKER_01]: toolshitterfansy.com and popping out a ton of content on the Patreon going through my dynasty and prospect positional ranking series. 02:57.609 --> 03:03.479 [SPEAKER_01]: I've gone through a short stop on both outfields up next and then pitch yourself. 03:03.919 --> 03:05.802 [SPEAKER_01]: Some of the fun ones here, short stop obviously. 03:06.243 --> 03:11.852 [SPEAKER_01]: Very exciting as is outfield and pitching and then I'll be starting my 03:11.832 --> 03:15.701 [SPEAKER_01]: you know a podcast version of the series very soon. 03:15.761 --> 03:21.294 [SPEAKER_01]: I'll kick off with catchers on it was at the 15th or the 6th. 03:21.314 --> 03:23.399 [SPEAKER_01]: Wherever that Monday is, I think it's the 15th. 03:23.419 --> 03:24.441 [SPEAKER_01]: I want to say 03:24.573 --> 03:42.441 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, doing two per week, got a bunch of great guests lined up, you know, do this every year in December, January into the early part of February, real fun just to kind of break everything down, get other people's perspectives, you know, see where the people have guys ranked, and it's always a fun series for a couple of months. 03:42.461 --> 03:46.648 [SPEAKER_01]: So that is coming up very soon, very excited about that. 03:46.628 --> 03:49.911 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, yeah, let's get into the buys and sells here. 03:49.931 --> 03:53.474 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll start off with the sales again, three of those. 03:53.795 --> 04:16.315 [SPEAKER_01]: And I hate to start with this guy because I'm a Red Sox fan, but I got to go Breon Beio as my first sell, you know, Beio had the best year of his career in 2025, 335 ERA and a 124 whip in 28 04:16.514 --> 04:27.931 [SPEAKER_01]: So by and large, you know, the best year of his career, you know, best ERA, best whip, you know, but outside of that's, and even the whip one to four, I mean, it's not bad. 04:27.991 --> 04:30.135 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not great either kind of middle of the road. 04:31.016 --> 04:33.580 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm actually not even sure what league average whip is. 04:33.600 --> 04:35.663 [SPEAKER_01]: I get to imagine the summers and that range. 04:35.703 --> 04:36.384 [SPEAKER_01]: I'll have to look that up. 04:36.504 --> 04:37.105 [SPEAKER_01]: But, 04:37.388 --> 04:51.564 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, still not giving you any strikeouts or very minimal impact in the strikeout rate department and actually had the worst strikeout rate and the worst strikeout minus walk rate of his career. 04:52.625 --> 05:06.501 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, yeah, she had one of if you look at pictures with at least 100 innings in 2025 and there were 127 of them. 05:07.797 --> 05:15.926 [SPEAKER_01]: Bale ranked 110th, so that is 18th worst at a 9.3% circuit minus walk rate. 05:16.567 --> 05:17.628 [SPEAKER_01]: Some of the names are around him. 05:18.449 --> 05:18.650 [SPEAKER_01]: All right. 05:18.670 --> 05:21.733 [SPEAKER_01]: You go the first, let's go the five names either way. 05:21.873 --> 05:24.857 [SPEAKER_01]: The five names write above him, so better than him. 05:25.578 --> 05:31.745 [SPEAKER_01]: Davis, Martin, Miles, Mikaless, Calquantrol, Stephen Colick, and Kyle Hendrix. 05:32.526 --> 05:36.370 [SPEAKER_01]: And the five names below him, Clay Holmes, Logan Allen, Andrew Heaney, 05:36.822 --> 05:39.005 [SPEAKER_01]: Tension Walker and Jake Irvin. 05:39.346 --> 05:46.115 [SPEAKER_01]: So not a lot of great, you know, impactful fantasy guys down here. 05:46.155 --> 05:51.723 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the only other one down here who had an ERA, you know, under four was Clay Holmes. 05:52.384 --> 05:54.447 [SPEAKER_01]: It was right next to him and came out and it's walk great. 05:55.127 --> 06:00.535 [SPEAKER_01]: And then, you know, in that same light, even though the ERA was 335, 06:00.515 --> 06:08.251 [SPEAKER_01]: Looking at all the e-array indicators and more like in the 4-2 to 4-6 range and really all those were in line with previous years. 06:08.311 --> 06:10.616 [SPEAKER_01]: Like the X-ERA was 452 in 2025. 06:11.478 --> 06:19.755 [SPEAKER_01]: It was 456 in 2024, but he had an e-array drop of 1.14 from 449 to 335. 06:20.326 --> 06:37.288 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, Bale has never been a guy to miss a ton of bats even when he was, you know, someone exciting pitching prospect coming up through Boston system, you know, he's always been more of the pitch to contact get some ground ball, you know, he's basically, and I said this before, 06:37.268 --> 06:53.563 [SPEAKER_01]: a younger version of Brady Singer, you know, singers of my guy who's just been a decent arm, you'll give you a low, you know, I'll be up to three, low four ERA, get you some ground balls, you know, kind of a safe back-end option. 06:53.603 --> 06:56.105 [SPEAKER_01]: And that's really all I think, BIO is. 06:56.345 --> 07:06.955 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he got really, really lucky this year that the betting average on balls and play for 07:07.137 --> 07:09.385 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't excuse me, that was actually 07:10.529 --> 07:13.073 [SPEAKER_01]: 268 was it was the bad amateur ball doesn't play. 07:13.093 --> 07:39.473 [SPEAKER_01]: So that's not like super low, but, you know, that is lower than league average by about 30 points or so, and I just don't think you're ever going to get the impactful strikeout rate and, you know, if slash when the ERA progresses back to kind of where it probably should be, you know, up over four, that's just not overly exciting. 07:39.959 --> 07:40.621 [SPEAKER_01]: to your advantage. 07:40.641 --> 07:54.981 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you're not going to get a huge haul in return for him, but I do think the value, both what he gives you and the perceived value of Beo is going to be lower at this time next year than higher or even the same. 07:54.961 --> 08:04.313 [SPEAKER_01]: So that's why Bayo is my first sell, stick it right in the American league, each my second one, Trevor Rogers. 08:04.994 --> 08:11.382 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, who imagines Rogers coming back the way he did in 2025? 08:11.822 --> 08:19.512 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he had that great season way back in 2021, you know, 264 ERA in 25 starts. 08:20.213 --> 08:24.158 [SPEAKER_01]: So entering 2022, 08:24.138 --> 08:31.308 [SPEAKER_01]: As, you know, like a mid range SP2 and to be honest, I was drinking the cool laid back then as well. 08:31.548 --> 08:35.293 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, that was back when he was striking out, you know, a ton of guys. 08:35.353 --> 08:44.105 [SPEAKER_01]: He had 157 strikeouts in 133 innings to go along with that low ERA had that year. 08:44.185 --> 08:52.035 [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I was drinking the cool laid back then, 08:52.420 --> 08:58.068 [SPEAKER_01]: in 2022 through 2024, both in terms of performance and just staying on the field. 08:58.809 --> 09:06.519 [SPEAKER_01]: He had a combined, just was it 48, 52 starts in those three seasons. 09:06.959 --> 09:09.963 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, ERA was near five last season. 09:10.804 --> 09:14.209 [SPEAKER_01]: But in his first full season with the Baltimore Orioles, 09:14.189 --> 09:41.530 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, 181 ERAZ zero point nine zero whip in 18 starts hundred and nine and two thirds innings walk rate was a career best six point nine percent K rates kind of got back to the 22 22 23 levels at 24 point three percent not quite what it was in 2021 which was 20 and a half percent but much better than the 17 point three percent mark we saw for him in 2024 09:41.881 --> 09:46.129 [SPEAKER_01]: And that walk rate was also about 3% lower last year than it was in 2024. 09:46.269 --> 09:53.643 [SPEAKER_01]: No, me recommending him as a sell here is not me saying, I don't think he's going to be a decent arm. 09:54.123 --> 10:03.180 [SPEAKER_01]: I can see him being like a top 50 top 60 type of arm, but just from a lot of things I've seen on social media. 10:03.160 --> 10:08.590 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, whether it be comments on my post or just other people talking about him. 10:08.611 --> 10:13.901 [SPEAKER_01]: I feel like you perceive value on a Trevor Rogers is a lot higher than that. 10:13.981 --> 10:19.271 [SPEAKER_01]: I feel like it's more like top 30 ish range right now. 10:19.732 --> 10:22.577 [SPEAKER_01]: And actually, let me pull up his 80 piece. 10:22.597 --> 10:23.920 [SPEAKER_01]: I'd love to see. 10:23.967 --> 10:28.853 [SPEAKER_01]: where he's being drafted right now in early 2026 leagues. 10:29.394 --> 10:35.322 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, around pick 160 in the similar range to who's in that range. 10:35.342 --> 10:39.467 [SPEAKER_01]: Sandi, Alcantra, Carl's were don't, shot them in Aga. 10:40.028 --> 10:43.292 [SPEAKER_01]: Louis 10:43.272 --> 10:59.047 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know where that is because for just starters because NFBC loops in relievers as well, but that's probably more like SP4045 actually, but you know, I'm still, I'm not that high on on Trevor Rogers. 10:59.167 --> 11:10.798 [SPEAKER_01]: I see him as more like a decent like four-five for your fantasy team, not the kind of two-three that he kind of was this past year, because he was one of the best 11:10.778 --> 11:25.699 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe the best arm in all baseball or at least in that discussion in the second half, but, you know, ERA 180, but X ERA 341, you know, got hit around a lot too, like a lot of hard contact. 11:25.932 --> 11:29.617 [SPEAKER_01]: allowed 48.4% hard hit rate allowed. 11:30.137 --> 11:45.717 [SPEAKER_01]: Average EV right around 90 miles an hour gives up, you know, decent amount of, you know, bad at balls to the pole side in the air, you know, so not, you know, not super high, you know, ground ball rate, though it's a wrong league average. 11:45.777 --> 11:47.299 [SPEAKER_01]: Actually, it's not terrible, but, 11:47.279 --> 11:55.214 [SPEAKER_01]: don't like how much hard contact he allows and don't see him maintaining like a top 30 to 45. 11:55.474 --> 11:57.338 [SPEAKER_01]: That's really, again, I think he's decent. 11:57.738 --> 12:05.212 [SPEAKER_01]: I just don't think he's just great, you know, back to the SP2 level Trevor Rogers that we saw in 2021. 12:05.653 --> 12:07.296 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's that same guy. 12:07.276 --> 12:07.857 [SPEAKER_01]: right now. 12:07.877 --> 12:14.414 [SPEAKER_01]: So I would be more inclined to sell than to buy right now. 12:15.115 --> 12:23.175 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he could even miss more bets if he went to the second areas even more like his two best swing and miss offerings was his slider in the sweeper. 12:23.155 --> 12:26.544 [SPEAKER_01]: Those are actually just in general really really good offerings. 12:27.186 --> 12:38.295 [SPEAKER_01]: Slider 061 betting average against 152 slug allowed 41% away for a sweeper 065 betting average against 129 slug allowed in a 37.7 12:38.275 --> 12:50.592 [SPEAKER_01]: percent with rate, but those were his least-to-use offerings at a combined 19.3 percent, sinker was at 15 percent, usage rate, change up 25 percent, forseemer at 40 percent. 12:50.893 --> 13:00.886 [SPEAKER_01]: So again, decent arm, but not quite as high in, I think the actual value compared to the perceived value on Trevor Rodgers. 13:00.906 --> 13:01.347 [SPEAKER_01]: So, 13:01.597 --> 13:03.003 [SPEAKER_01]: He's my second cell. 13:03.726 --> 13:09.750 [SPEAKER_01]: Third cell, another guy that I didn't want to put in here, but I think I kind of have two Gavin Williams. 13:10.675 --> 13:40.277 [SPEAKER_01]: I have always been, you know, or for a long time, I was a Gavin Williams guy and I'm not like out on Gavin Williams by any means, I know all people do like him in the industry right now, but I just, I didn't see a lot of, you know, tangible changes that you can say, oh, that's why 13:40.375 --> 13:47.322 [SPEAKER_01]: 329 in this rookie year in 2023 for 86 and 24 306 and 2525. 13:47.482 --> 13:51.667 [SPEAKER_01]: So you could say, oh, hey, it's been under 3.3 and two of those three years. 13:52.267 --> 14:00.916 [SPEAKER_01]: So that's more of the, you know, the metric, the rate that you should be looking at as opposed to the 486 era. 14:01.477 --> 14:02.939 [SPEAKER_01]: But I don't think he's that bad either. 14:02.959 --> 14:07.243 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's near 5 a.m. a guy, but I don't think he's low 3 14:07.223 --> 14:07.644 [SPEAKER_01]: either. 14:07.944 --> 14:19.442 [SPEAKER_01]: And that's actually funny, even though his surface era has fluctuated wildly, his X era has been nearly identical in each of his three seasons, 421, 422, 428. 14:22.287 --> 14:26.874 [SPEAKER_01]: And same thing can be said, but the strike got rate 23.5%, 23.8%, 24.6%. 14:28.036 --> 14:34.446 [SPEAKER_01]: So it's slowly ticking up and he's 14:34.426 --> 14:50.848 [SPEAKER_01]: But the other issue and I think if I had to just say one reason why I'm not, you know, in or in as much as most people are on Gavin Williams, it's the walk right 11.8% he's always been a below average. 14:50.828 --> 14:59.479 [SPEAKER_01]: control guy, you know, right around that 10 and a half 11 to 12% walk rate range out of pitchers with 100 innings this past season. 15:00.039 --> 15:05.426 [SPEAKER_01]: Only Mike Vacil with the white sucks had a higher walk rate than Gavin Williams. 15:05.446 --> 15:09.311 [SPEAKER_01]: And most of the other names on here are not great names. 15:09.331 --> 15:19.283 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, there was 10 to be 11 pitchers with a walk rate above 10% with also having over 100 innings. 15:19.398 --> 15:26.744 [SPEAKER_01]: The only other one that was really good this year was, could I say, we've had 11.4% walk rate. 15:26.824 --> 15:32.849 [SPEAKER_01]: But then you're looking at, you know, the CL, Jack of channelets, Charlie Moore in Grant Holmes. 15:33.090 --> 15:33.830 [SPEAKER_01]: I guess he was all right. 15:34.391 --> 15:36.232 [SPEAKER_01]: Walker Bure was the zaster. 15:36.252 --> 15:38.734 [SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, I know I was all right, I guess. 15:38.835 --> 15:40.256 [SPEAKER_01]: Eric Feday, not good. 15:40.956 --> 15:42.137 [SPEAKER_01]: Sean Burke was okay. 15:42.157 --> 15:43.719 [SPEAKER_01]: Some Jack letter was the other one. 15:43.799 --> 15:48.763 [SPEAKER_01]: So not a lot of great guys that can really maintain success. 15:48.743 --> 15:54.989 [SPEAKER_01]: with that double digit walk rate range, you know, and Williams has two good breaking balls. 15:55.629 --> 15:58.392 [SPEAKER_01]: Fastball gets hit around a good bet. 15:58.492 --> 16:05.398 [SPEAKER_01]: Like it almost feels like, you know, what we saw with Tristan McKenzie. 16:05.698 --> 16:16.708 [SPEAKER_01]: It was a different fastball for McKenzie, you know, and his Vila was in his highest Williams, but just in the sense of the fastball got hit around a good bet, but two good breaking balls. 16:17.380 --> 16:41.346 [SPEAKER_01]: because Williams curve ball, 16 batting average against his sweeper, 181 batting average against and 34.4% with right on the curve, 44% on the sweeper, but the four steamer, 268 batting average against, 498 sluggle out, 507, X slug, 374 wool, but so, you know, average EV of 94 miles an hour. 16:41.866 --> 16:47.095 [SPEAKER_01]: If you can fix that and drop the walk rate, then I still think there's a really good picture in there. 16:47.376 --> 16:49.580 [SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, you're gonna see that picture at times. 16:50.381 --> 17:00.799 [SPEAKER_01]: But I do believe that he's more, probably more like mid to upper three, ERA guy, you know, 24, 25% K rate, but also Dell did you walk rate. 17:01.100 --> 17:05.207 [SPEAKER_01]: So I don't see him kind of taking that next step unless 17:05.187 --> 17:08.811 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, you see the metrics on the four seam improve. 17:08.851 --> 17:10.573 [SPEAKER_01]: You see it means that walk rate tick down. 17:11.034 --> 17:12.175 [SPEAKER_01]: So there is still a path. 17:12.376 --> 17:18.904 [SPEAKER_01]: But right now, I do think the perceived value on Williams is higher than where I have them valued. 17:18.944 --> 17:20.846 [SPEAKER_01]: So he is my third cell. 17:21.627 --> 17:27.454 [SPEAKER_01]: So again, bring on Bayo, Trevor Rogers and Gavin Williams are the three cells. 17:28.335 --> 17:30.958 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll go into the buys now. 17:31.529 --> 17:36.761 [SPEAKER_01]: starting with my favorite buy out of all the buys. 17:36.922 --> 17:41.332 [SPEAKER_01]: He is the biggest buy out there for me at least. 17:41.733 --> 17:44.560 [SPEAKER_01]: Emmett, she hand with the Dodgers. 17:45.383 --> 17:48.727 [SPEAKER_01]: metrics on she and our really really good. 17:49.448 --> 18:03.423 [SPEAKER_01]: Look at last year in 73 in the third innings 282 ERA 0.97 whip 7.6% walk rate 30.6% strike rate. 18:03.443 --> 18:14.175 [SPEAKER_01]: He's a four pitch guy kind of like the the old 18:14.527 --> 18:36.467 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, that's kind of like what I grew up like thinking like, oh, those are your normal four pitches and then it's kind of brain stuff in there with, you know, fastball variations and, you know, different, you know, breaking balls with sweepers and slurs and, you know, splinters and everything, but, you know, growing up, I thought that was at the four you'd get as like your basic four on the MOE, the show for seam curve ball change up slider. 18:36.447 --> 18:59.940 [SPEAKER_01]: And that's what she can is for Seamor average is 95 and a half miles an hour to 14 batting average against on that slider 162 batting average against with a 43.6% width rate change up 146 batting average against where they 30.2% width rate and the curve ball you're going to use 60% of the time that's not really a high usage rate there. 18:59.920 --> 19:04.368 [SPEAKER_01]: but for seems weather change up all three are good offerings. 19:05.009 --> 19:09.617 [SPEAKER_01]: He can miss bats at a very rigged clip, as I mentioned, Ari said the strike out rate. 19:10.078 --> 19:14.385 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 32.9 percent with rate 32.8 percent. 19:14.526 --> 19:21.037 [SPEAKER_01]: Chase rate zone contact rate allowed under 80 percent at 79.8 percent. 19:22.099 --> 19:23.802 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, a lot of good here. 19:24.457 --> 19:32.046 [SPEAKER_01]: I just wonder, like the one question is like, how many innings does he get in 2026? 19:32.867 --> 19:33.848 [SPEAKER_01]: Dodgers are loaded. 19:34.549 --> 19:35.690 [SPEAKER_01]: They always are loaded. 19:35.710 --> 19:37.432 [SPEAKER_01]: They're always going to be loaded. 19:38.233 --> 19:44.119 [SPEAKER_01]: And right now, even with Kirsha retiring, kind of helps a bit here. 19:44.340 --> 19:47.103 [SPEAKER_01]: But who's to say the Dodgers aren't going to bring in? 19:48.244 --> 19:49.145 [SPEAKER_01]: Another arm, right? 19:49.205 --> 19:53.350 [SPEAKER_01]: I think we all assume they're going to 19:53.549 --> 20:04.545 [SPEAKER_01]: As of now, the current projected rotation, you know, Yamamoto, snail, glass now, Otani, she and Roki Suzuki's in there too. 20:04.565 --> 20:06.909 [SPEAKER_01]: I think there's still some questions. 20:07.129 --> 20:09.132 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, do they keep them in the bullpen? 20:09.192 --> 20:11.075 [SPEAKER_01]: I do think he's back in the rotation. 20:11.475 --> 20:12.537 [SPEAKER_01]: So that's already six. 20:13.198 --> 20:16.783 [SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, they have, you know, gone six man, a good bit. 20:17.024 --> 20:22.712 [SPEAKER_01]: But this is still before they potentially bring anybody in. 20:22.692 --> 20:23.413 [SPEAKER_01]: That's the one thing. 20:23.433 --> 20:32.231 [SPEAKER_01]: If it says like this, I think you can see like 140, 150 innings out of MSG hand, but they bring somebody in, that's what I'm starting to question. 20:32.251 --> 20:35.537 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, all right, is he limited to more like 100 innings or so? 20:35.888 --> 20:42.938 [SPEAKER_01]: And granted, you know, a lot of these guys aren't exactly beacons of durability, mainly snow and glass now. 20:43.740 --> 20:47.425 [SPEAKER_01]: But that's just the one question I have of she had. 20:47.445 --> 20:49.809 [SPEAKER_01]: But I do not question the talent. 20:50.289 --> 20:52.052 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, again, bat missing is there. 20:52.472 --> 20:57.039 [SPEAKER_01]: Drop the walk rate 3% last year from this 2023 rookie season. 20:57.199 --> 21:00.985 [SPEAKER_01]: And obviously, he did not pitch in the majors in 2024. 21:02.028 --> 21:09.106 [SPEAKER_01]: But there's a lot of good here with she hand, you know, X here raise right there at three on the dots love MSG hand. 21:09.146 --> 21:15.362 [SPEAKER_01]: I think you can see him take that step forward and be a top 25 starter in 2026. 21:15.815 --> 21:21.181 [SPEAKER_01]: So that's my biggest buy, this offseason on the pitching side, I'm going to go to Baltimore here. 21:21.301 --> 21:26.267 [SPEAKER_01]: So I did one sell on Baltimore and now I'm kind of evening things out here with a buy. 21:26.728 --> 21:27.709 [SPEAKER_01]: And that's Kyle Braddish. 21:28.370 --> 21:30.152 [SPEAKER_01]: I saw his first start back. 21:30.952 --> 21:41.805 [SPEAKER_01]: That was in was a late August when I was down visiting friends and family in the 21:41.785 --> 21:50.180 [SPEAKER_01]: took a, you know, nearly two hour drive down from Philadelphia to Baltimore, Candidates, my first time at Candidates, Phenomenal Ball Park. 21:50.200 --> 21:51.823 [SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely lovely ballpark. 21:51.843 --> 21:59.136 [SPEAKER_01]: Didn't really have much time to, you know, check out Baltimore in general, but I love Candidates already when my favorite ballpark. 21:59.690 --> 22:10.873 [SPEAKER_01]: and Radish was really good that day, six innings, four hits, two runs, both were solo shots, and ten strikeouts, and then he really didn't have any bad starts. 22:11.273 --> 22:21.073 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, rest of the starts were four innings, two earned, seven innings, one earned, five innings, one earned, six innings, one earned, and four innings, two earned, and the season. 22:21.053 --> 22:27.822 [SPEAKER_01]: overall it's a 253 ERA 1003 whip 47 strikeouts in just 32 innings. 22:28.403 --> 22:35.632 [SPEAKER_01]: It's a 37.3% strikeout rate 7.9% walk rate. 22:35.652 --> 22:42.782 [SPEAKER_01]: So the thing with with Braddish is he just hasn't been on the mound a lot. 22:43.142 --> 22:47.668 [SPEAKER_01]: 71 in the 22:47.767 --> 23:04.463 [SPEAKER_01]: But also he has a sub three era in each of the last three seasons dating back to 2023 when he had a 283 ERA in 30 starts K rate over 32% and a K minus walk right above 23% each of the last two seasons. 23:05.023 --> 23:08.507 [SPEAKER_01]: Yes small sample size, but when he's on the mound. 23:09.427 --> 23:15.293 [SPEAKER_01]: He's been very good and a whip right around like 105 in each of the last three seasons. 23:16.994 --> 23:17.835 [SPEAKER_01]: need to stay healthy. 23:18.455 --> 23:22.980 [SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely, and that's kind of the red flag here, but he's still in me still 29. 23:23.360 --> 23:25.102 [SPEAKER_01]: So he's not like he's super old. 23:25.863 --> 23:42.799 [SPEAKER_01]: And we've seen the skills there, even this last year, two pitches with a, we've rate above 44% in the slider and the curve ball, you know, also throws, you know, four seamer and sinker both that 94, 95 range, you know, 23:42.779 --> 24:00.400 [SPEAKER_01]: didn't get a lot of ground balls last year, but in the previous three seasons had a ground ball rate above 45% higher chase rates as well, 31% chase rate last year, 77.5% zone contact rate allowed, 34.8% with rate. 24:01.409 --> 24:08.860 [SPEAKER_01]: So I feel like the perceived value here has been, you know, decreased due to the time missed as it should. 24:08.920 --> 24:19.976 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's going at 14 starts combined the last two years, but I'll take that to my advantage, try to get him, you know, for a little bit cheaper than, you know, he probably should be going for. 24:20.476 --> 24:24.782 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think you can see Brad is be, it's up 30 or so picture this year. 24:24.843 --> 24:28.648 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, once Brad's be vegetable, ham and she hand, we're top 25 arms this year. 24:28.628 --> 24:46.840 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, they need to volume, you know, and she, in case just getting the innings, you know, having a chance to and with Brad is staying healthy, but if you could say healthy, I think you're going to see a return to 2023 levels with probably a higher strike got right. 24:47.697 --> 24:58.800 [SPEAKER_01]: Alright, next name here, going to Detroit, resoulson, always been a big resoulson guy, especially going into the last couple of seasons. 24:58.820 --> 25:05.473 [SPEAKER_01]: And he continues to pitch well, but we still haven't seen him pitch more than 112 and a third innings in a season. 25:05.894 --> 25:07.798 [SPEAKER_01]: And that was 2024. 25:07.778 --> 25:15.989 [SPEAKER_01]: 2025, he only had 13 stars, 68 and two thirds innings, but he had a three 13 ERA. 25:16.470 --> 25:26.403 [SPEAKER_01]: But again, you know, the best availability is availability and he missed two thirds or so of the season with a right shoulder screen. 25:26.423 --> 25:29.347 [SPEAKER_01]: So those are tricky. 25:29.387 --> 25:33.853 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I see shoulder, it was just a strain, yes, but I don't know. 25:34.323 --> 25:40.698 [SPEAKER_01]: I get really weary shoulder issues, especially with a guy that just hasn't shown that he can make 30 starts. 25:41.821 --> 25:51.825 [SPEAKER_01]: But on the same, you know, thought this also has decreased his perceived value to the point where he's a good buy. 25:52.312 --> 25:55.817 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I still see a potential breakout here. 25:56.097 --> 26:00.042 [SPEAKER_01]: If he's a healthy, I see a potential rise in K-Rate. 26:00.082 --> 26:03.947 [SPEAKER_01]: He's been kind of chilling around a league average K-Rate. 26:04.448 --> 26:13.780 [SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, he's a singer, guys, opposed to a four-seemed guy primarily though he does throw both, but the singer is his most used offering. 26:13.760 --> 26:42.079 [SPEAKER_01]: change up and slider are as two most used secondary offerings uses those they combine a 47 and a half percent both have a width rate in the vicinity of 45 percent it's 46.2 percent on the change 44.8 percent on the slider and it also has a 36.8 percent on the curveball 26:43.072 --> 26:51.011 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, just the price tag is so low right now that it's not going to take a lot to get him. 26:51.633 --> 26:55.883 [SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, there's still some words, you know, the hard hit rates allowed aren't great. 26:56.082 --> 27:14.614 [SPEAKER_01]: obviously durability is an issue, but still only 26 years old can miss bats, you know, with those two offerings really, WIFRATE was pretty good last year, 29.7% so they give WIFRATE's chase rates all really good. 27:14.594 --> 27:17.920 [SPEAKER_01]: just hasn't had the K-rate to kind of match. 27:18.501 --> 27:36.754 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think you see a jump and K-rate this year and hopefully he can maintain that low three ERA, so as if he's given you like a 3, 2, 3, 3 ERA, you know, 1, 15 that 1.2 whip and maybe more of like a 24, 25, maybe even 26% K-rate. 27:36.734 --> 27:39.378 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's like a top 30 to 40 arm right there. 27:39.458 --> 27:47.631 [SPEAKER_01]: So like resource and a lot, I think he's a great and fairly cheap by low option in Dines at the exact now. 27:48.813 --> 27:50.956 [SPEAKER_01]: Fourth name here, we got three to go. 27:50.976 --> 27:52.939 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeri Perez. 27:54.041 --> 27:57.747 [SPEAKER_01]: What a rookie year we saw from Yeri Perez. 27:57.929 --> 28:15.043 [SPEAKER_01]: back in 2023, then obviously he missed all 2024 came back in 2025 made 20 starts 105 here to be 105 web 105 the area will be crazy 105 web 425 ERA 28:15.023 --> 28:20.130 [SPEAKER_01]: but you saw glimpses of that rookie year, year he press. 28:20.631 --> 28:22.874 [SPEAKER_01]: He actually had a very similar K-minus walk rate. 28:23.595 --> 28:33.670 [SPEAKER_01]: Walk rate was exactly the same, 8.3% as a rookie year, K rate dipped slightly but still 27.3%, that's a 19% K-minus walk rate. 28:35.112 --> 28:44.946 [SPEAKER_01]: And even though his ERA was 1.1 higher than 28:44.926 --> 28:49.650 [SPEAKER_01]: He's looking some of the names here, you know, similar pictures to Yeri based on Vila Movement. 28:50.071 --> 28:58.939 [SPEAKER_01]: You got Spencer Strider twice, Bubba Chanler, Hunter Green, just a lot of good names there and all the enough Jack lighter. 28:59.179 --> 29:01.041 [SPEAKER_01]: That's surprising one. 29:01.521 --> 29:06.405 [SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, Yeri Perez, I think people, everyone knows how good he could be. 29:06.986 --> 29:13.091 [SPEAKER_01]: But I think just because, you know, the time missed and coming back last year, I just shake the rust off a little bit. 29:13.592 --> 29:14.933 [SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have that 29:14.913 --> 29:17.079 [SPEAKER_01]: fully elite price tag. 29:17.821 --> 29:27.127 [SPEAKER_01]: It's still fairly high, but not like top 10 pitcher high, which I think is where he's going to get back to in 2026. 29:27.328 --> 29:29.935 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, elite. 29:29.915 --> 29:34.122 [SPEAKER_01]: fastball velocity, 98 miles now, or 201 batting the average against. 29:34.583 --> 29:40.413 [SPEAKER_01]: He's got still has the really good secondary offerings, and he's even expanded his arsenal. 29:40.914 --> 29:44.740 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, 2023, he was foreseem, slider curve, change up. 29:45.121 --> 29:55.298 [SPEAKER_01]: He added a sweeper in 2025 that had a 46% width rate, change up, had a 61% width rate, slider 39.9% width rate. 29:55.582 --> 29:59.938 [SPEAKER_01]: lot of really good offerings with him, but the one issue. 30:00.290 --> 30:03.513 [SPEAKER_01]: the outside of maybe some durability question marks. 30:04.154 --> 30:06.196 [SPEAKER_01]: He gives him a lot of contact in the air. 30:07.117 --> 30:12.642 [SPEAKER_01]: Grumball rate last year was around 31.4% and it was 27.5 in 2023. 30:13.023 --> 30:22.412 [SPEAKER_01]: So air rate allowed is pretty high, but at the same time, it doesn't give up a lot of contact in general. 30:22.552 --> 30:30.060 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think you can kind of limit the damage to some degree, but that is like a little bit of the red flag. 30:30.243 --> 30:36.931 [SPEAKER_01]: I do think you see him take that step forward that we all thought was going to happen in 2024 before the injury. 30:37.752 --> 30:40.155 [SPEAKER_01]: I still think there's top five picture upside here. 30:40.175 --> 30:58.917 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe not quite on school, you know, schemes level, but maybe if any picture that's not in tier one right now with those two and crochet could get into tier one, it's a short list. 31:00.415 --> 31:16.888 [SPEAKER_01]: That might be it, wasn't forgetting somebody, but I don't think like Hunter Brown has that upside or Sanchez as that upside or even who Gilbert those guys, they're like good, you know, obviously great tier two guys, but we're talking about getting up into that. 31:17.037 --> 31:21.908 [SPEAKER_01]: elite elite tier one with the best names in the game. 31:22.429 --> 31:24.614 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeri Perez is one of the names that can get up there. 31:24.634 --> 31:33.493 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think this is your last chance to acquire him via trade for a price type that's not asher nomically high. 31:34.250 --> 31:42.564 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's round it out with two cheaper options, two lefty rookies from 2025. 31:44.187 --> 31:50.959 [SPEAKER_01]: Both kind of have a similar fast bovalosity, which is, you know, around like 91 and a half, 92. 31:50.939 --> 31:51.961 [SPEAKER_01]: miles an hour. 31:51.981 --> 31:56.168 [SPEAKER_01]: We have ENT more with the rays and Joey can't T.O. 31:56.869 --> 31:58.171 [SPEAKER_01]: with the guardians. 31:58.532 --> 32:08.008 [SPEAKER_01]: I'll start with ENT more in 57 innings with Tampa Bay, which was kind of split between the bullpen and the rotation. 32:08.028 --> 32:11.293 [SPEAKER_01]: He's kind of used in a variety of roles. 32:11.273 --> 32:21.049 [SPEAKER_01]: Yep, but he's good overall, 363 ERA, 118 whip, 26.4% straight gut rate and a 7.9% walk rate. 32:21.089 --> 32:36.353 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, he uses a little bit older, 26 year-old rookie, but I think there's a chance he could be like a top 75 arm or so, even though he doesn't throw hard again, 91 and a half miles an hour. 32:36.974 --> 32:41.774 [SPEAKER_01]: We've seen that work before, you know, especially for lefties. 32:41.795 --> 32:47.338 [SPEAKER_01]: And that's a much righty's, you know, see a lot of, in 91 mile in our righty's that are successful. 32:47.825 --> 32:51.629 [SPEAKER_01]: very rarely, but you see that more so with lefties. 32:52.730 --> 32:56.073 [SPEAKER_01]: And I think we can see that with C more because he misses bats. 32:56.093 --> 32:59.776 [SPEAKER_01]: 27% with rate last year is above average. 32:59.837 --> 33:07.224 [SPEAKER_01]: He limits contact fairly well overall, especially in his own 78.5% zone contact rate allowed. 33:07.444 --> 33:09.346 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, walk rate was pretty solid at 7.9%. 33:11.328 --> 33:14.290 [SPEAKER_01]: And he mixes pitches well and speeds. 33:14.971 --> 33:15.992 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's got. 33:15.972 --> 33:20.938 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, technically six pitches, but really only five he uses. 33:21.018 --> 33:23.321 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't really count them if they're below five percent. 33:23.942 --> 33:25.804 [SPEAKER_01]: He's at a curve ball at one and a half percent. 33:25.884 --> 33:26.705 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't count that. 33:27.386 --> 33:30.170 [SPEAKER_01]: But four steamer at 91.6. 33:30.210 --> 33:31.852 [SPEAKER_01]: He throws at 32 percent of the time. 33:32.392 --> 33:37.018 [SPEAKER_01]: Change up also 32 percent of the time around 83-84. 33:36.998 --> 34:02.753 [SPEAKER_01]: Cutter in the upper 80s he throws 21 and a half percent of the time sweeper in the low 80s 8% usage and sinker around 991 at 5 and a half percent usage sweeper and change it both had a width rate around 35% for similar bedding of a gigance of 2017 change up 186 bedding average against both had sluggled out of 350 or less. 34:03.712 --> 34:08.921 [SPEAKER_01]: that change up is probably as best offering in a way, six by the average against 244 slug. 34:09.402 --> 34:13.409 [SPEAKER_01]: 201 will but 35.1 percent with rate. 34:13.629 --> 34:18.076 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 32 of is 64 strikeouts. 34:18.097 --> 34:21.923 [SPEAKER_01]: So exactly half of his strikeouts on that change up. 34:21.903 --> 34:36.698 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, not a stud, I don't think he's going to jump up to, you know, the levels where I think, you know, like she can jump up to, but can see more being a top 6070 arm or in that general vicinity? 34:36.738 --> 34:37.378 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. 34:37.398 --> 34:41.903 [SPEAKER_01]: And this looks like he's going to have a chance to start in that rotation for Tampa Bay. 34:41.943 --> 34:51.252 [SPEAKER_01]: They'll he can give you 150, 160 endings of a, you know, mid-up or three ERA, you know, a decent whip and above average K-rate. 34:51.232 --> 34:53.336 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's a pretty solid arm right there. 34:53.376 --> 34:57.104 [SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think it's a cost a lot to get an NC more right now. 34:57.625 --> 34:59.549 [SPEAKER_01]: Same thing with Bajoy Kanteo. 35:00.050 --> 35:02.816 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I feel like these two are fairly similar. 35:03.377 --> 35:07.485 [SPEAKER_01]: They're, you know, again, both softer tossing lefties. 35:08.157 --> 35:22.094 [SPEAKER_01]: Seymour's 26, Kentio's 25, you know, both were decent, but not like super highly regarded prospects and both kind of pitched in both relief and starting. 35:22.735 --> 35:29.663 [SPEAKER_01]: This year, for, and there's what the teams, and Kentio really took off when he got into the rotation. 35:29.824 --> 35:34.249 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, after his, his first few starts were a little rocky, 35:34.415 --> 35:38.802 [SPEAKER_01]: But his final, was at final, seven starts. 35:38.842 --> 35:40.485 [SPEAKER_01]: We're actually pretty darn good. 35:40.785 --> 35:44.391 [SPEAKER_01]: Starting on August 9th against the white socks. 35:44.471 --> 35:59.055 [SPEAKER_01]: He went five and two thirds, one earns, and then five innings, one earned against Atlanta, six innings, one earned against Boston, each shut out against Kansas City, five innings, one earned against Detroit, 35:59.035 --> 36:23.119 [SPEAKER_01]: Four and a third one earned against Minnesota and close it out five and two thirds with two earned against the Texas Rangers on the last game of the season So and to the season really well and you can make an argument that can to you has you know one of the best changeups in the game 36:23.352 --> 36:31.061 [SPEAKER_01]: a change of had a 49.4% with rate 165 batting average against 270 sluggle out. 36:31.101 --> 36:33.424 [SPEAKER_01]: It's one of the slower changeups out there. 36:33.444 --> 36:35.346 [SPEAKER_01]: 78 miles an hour on average. 36:35.847 --> 36:37.549 [SPEAKER_01]: He also has a curve ball right around there. 36:37.609 --> 36:41.353 [SPEAKER_01]: So nothing, nothing's hard from Kentio. 36:41.494 --> 36:47.681 [SPEAKER_01]: It's all softer when compared to the average velocity for his pitches. 36:48.302 --> 36:52.887 [SPEAKER_01]: Though his sliders 85, I think that's around average slider velocity, but 36:52.867 --> 37:01.801 [SPEAKER_01]: Four Seamers, 91, 7, change up 73, curveball, 77, 3, slider 85, 1, but that change up is so damn good. 37:01.841 --> 37:05.947 [SPEAKER_01]: But you also got some straightouts on the four Seamers, got some straightouts on the curveball. 37:06.508 --> 37:11.736 [SPEAKER_01]: Not so much on the slider, but that's, you know, is least use offering 8.7%. 37:11.716 --> 37:39.833 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, he can get decent amount of ground balls as well, you know, really good zone contact rate allowed 75% and he lives in his own, but he misses a lot of bats in his own as well, 29.7% we've read overall, not a big chase rate guy, you know, 23-ish percent in both of his seasons so far, but again, similar to Seymour, I don't expect a huge jump here, but I do think there's a solid arm here that you can acquire for not, 37:39.813 --> 37:57.020 [SPEAKER_01]: you know, not a lot, you know, I don't think it's a take a lot to get see more or canTO, you know, again, tops it, you know, 60 to 75 type arms, some more like your SP67, something like that depending on your league depth, but you know, these are the guys you need as well. 37:57.320 --> 38:03.009 [SPEAKER_01]: And when you can get them for, you know, not a big price tag, you know, I think these are these are good value buys. 38:03.029 --> 38:05.112 [SPEAKER_01]: You're not every buys would be 38:05.092 --> 38:33.462 [SPEAKER_01]: super sexy like a she-hand or a Yuri Perez or guys like that, but that's why I wanted to get a little bit of a mix here to give you some cheaper options along with a couple big names, so kind of a, you know, Schmurgers board of buys here, uh, but those are the six buys, again, Emmett she-hand and Kyle Brattish Results in Yuri Perez, Ian Seymour, Joey Kintio, and the three cells once more were brand-bale Trevor Rogers. 38:33.442 --> 38:35.025 [SPEAKER_01]: and Gavin Williams. 38:35.526 --> 38:37.349 [SPEAKER_01]: That's going to wrap up this episode. 38:37.610 --> 38:39.393 [SPEAKER_01]: Everyone has a great weekend. 38:39.654 --> 38:43.681 [SPEAKER_01]: I'll back with you again earlier next week, not another Saturday episode. 38:43.822 --> 38:46.607 [SPEAKER_01]: But until then, everyone take care.