[SPEAKER_00]: All right, welcome back to another episode of the Baseball America Fantasy podcast.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is your host Jeff Ponce alongside me as always is my co-host Dylan White up there and the great White North.
[SPEAKER_00]: Any snow on the ground, Dylan?
[SPEAKER_00]: We got snow here in Massachusetts.
[SPEAKER_00]: Why it has?
[SPEAKER_01]: uh there's a little bit of snow it uh we didn't get uh I don't know if you got that squall or it's coming soon this this week but uh we didn't get that much and apparently this week is just going to be cold and not much snow but uh it's it's cold.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah we're supposed to get like some seriously Arctic temperatures here in New England
[SPEAKER_00]: in the coming days week or so.
[SPEAKER_00]: So not looking bored of that, especially when it's already starting December.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know what is hot, Dylan.
[SPEAKER_00]: Second man.
[SPEAKER_00]: That would be the blue jays they signed my cousin Cody Ponds.
[SPEAKER_00]: Spell differently, my phonetic cousin Cody Ponds.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's been over in the KBO for a few years.
[SPEAKER_00]: Another nice signing for the BlueJays quite frankly.
[SPEAKER_00]: So more back end of the rotation, maybe in some like long relief situations as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's another arm.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's another potential starter.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's another major equality guy with
[SPEAKER_00]: really good break and ball if I recall correctly and not like great fast ball shape but good velocity so it's like five to seven if I can't if I'm recalling correctly once again.
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably can play.
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought when I looked at them earlier this off season that it seemed like it would be an interesting signing for somebody.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, feel like you can fit into a bunch of different roles with his arsenal.
[SPEAKER_00]: Has had success in the KBO was actually dominant over there, but at the same time, you know, it is the KBO.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, we need to see how much translates.
[SPEAKER_00]: But we have seen guys come back.
[SPEAKER_00]: from overseas guys like, you know, Maro Kelly, for example.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, even Miles Mikolas to, to a degree, Dan Strayley, I think came back over from the KBO and had like a year or two.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's like one more that I'm, Fettie Fettie, Fettie Fettie, all right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Huh?
[SPEAKER_01]: Eric Fettie, was KBO?
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think Fettie, Fettie was the most recent one.
[SPEAKER_00]: That was one.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's give my mind thank you.
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I mean, like, there has been some success with these guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: So what's your thoughts as a BlueJay's fan and sort of what's the, what's the fantasy take on him?
[SPEAKER_00]: He shouldn't be available on FYPDs, I believe, because he's over rookie limits already, from his previous time in affiliated, major league baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sort, so where does it sort of fall in terms of, where are you acquiring this guy in Dynastee?
[SPEAKER_00]: If he's available as a free agent or something like that, you're league, how aggressive would you be?
[SPEAKER_01]: I love them, I mean, so all these KBO guys, the guys you named, Kyle Hark even is one of those that pops up and like, you know, your sheet I was a big fan of, like I always end up liking these guys because in redraft, people fade them more than I think they should.
[SPEAKER_01]: I had fed in a lot of places when you came over, et cetera.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think it's always a good value.
[SPEAKER_01]: He, I was looking at some numbers because I have plots in three DCs already.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, um,
[SPEAKER_01]: his strikeout minus walk was better, it was like 30% and the best strikeout minus walk of someone coming over was fedy at 24% so he just blows through that and like he said he throws 95 97 he touches 98 like it's not like it's by like guy all and and finesse that he's doing this he's got the stuff underneath
[SPEAKER_01]: like X-FIP, like all the underlying was kind of like four.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you take that as kind of just a reasonable target for Ponce, he's definitely worth it.
[UNKNOWN]: So
[SPEAKER_01]: Expecting he'll be better than that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's great.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the fact that, you know, the Jay's already have sea scoutsman, you savage beaver, like he's a fifth starter.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's no pressure on the sky.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're signing him for three years, 10 million per year, that's like one war, like he's going to get one war.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like it's like, that's a great deal.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think so
[SPEAKER_01]: F like PD drafts because I usually finish near the top.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if he was available, Gaffelite pick him up, if he's not available because of he's not an F like PDs, but I mean like the way my F like PDs are is you can take anyone that's available, like you can take major leakers that are like in the pool that weren't picked up at the end of the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would still pick him in the first round for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would pick him in the first half of the first round.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because I think there's some upside there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I can I can see like if you just do the translations of KBO to major league like is he arrays like going to be like 3.5 like something ridiculous like it's it's actually so good because he kind of breaks the the model.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so if that's a possibility, then I think it's worth taking.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I like it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's 29.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think or like he's not like 35.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that it's a good side.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think all in all, as you can take from this, I like them a lot.
[SPEAKER_00]: There you go.
[SPEAKER_00]: Happy Jay's fan, Dylan White here, but yeah, I think, you know, it's kind of like hitting in the great in the middle of like two van diagrams, like in terms of Jay's fandom and import fandom.
[SPEAKER_00]: You generally, as you said, like the NPV players, as well as the KBO player.
[SPEAKER_00]: So there you go.
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see what this means for that bullpen, but an interesting move nonetheless.
[SPEAKER_00]: So what's your read here on the Devon Williams news?
[SPEAKER_01]: I like it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's reports immediately that the Metz, that doesn't mean their Metz aren't going to resign, I'd win Diaz, definitely makes it easier if they don't for them and their fan base.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's a lateral move.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Devon Williams, all his underline was great last year, even though he lost the job for the Yankees and much maligned and booed and all that stuff, but like his strike out for nine has always been good for for years.
[SPEAKER_01]: ZRA has all been good is underlying all that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so I think it's good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I actually wanted to talk about for a second, like in the redraft, just the philosophy, Cody Ponce and Devon Williams, kind of, uh, moves into this into this philosophy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm about to talk about is that people are always fading on certainty, like Devon Williams is going in like the eighth, ninth because, you know, what if he signs with the Dodgers and he's not the closer, I don't want to waste draft capital on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you look at the underlying, it was maybe there's two teams that would sign Devon Williams
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so like now that he's signed, he's going in like the fourth round.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was like the third closer going off the board.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now the pawns is signed with the j's.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he was being taken in like the 40th round and then now he's going to be in the 20th for sure, even earlier.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so I think it's an opportunity and a redraft is a bit of a like a strategy thing is to take guys, I mean, obviously you want to take guys who you think are going to sign to be worth more than what you're taking them, but like
[SPEAKER_01]: The crowd is quite good.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you just draft by ADP, you're going to have a solid team.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it aggregate people are very smart with the ADPs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So when you're drafting early, like now, if you can find the guys who are going to jump up an ADP from now to the spring training.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like the Connor Griffin's a JJ weatherhorse.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you were talking about last couple weeks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like they're going in the 19th round, 20th round.
[SPEAKER_01]: If in spring training happens,
[SPEAKER_01]: And they're looking like they make it a job.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to be taken in the 10th round.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to be taken in the 8th round.
[SPEAKER_01]: If they make it out of spring training.
[SPEAKER_01]: So these are the guys you take in the early rounds.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Devon Williams who are unsigned yet.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ryan Hellsley is another one.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm probably going to talk about soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: That he signed and now that he's closer, he's going from the 11th round to the 6th round to whatever.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a good strategy to just take guys that
[SPEAKER_01]: You think have a very good chance of popping up an ADP.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like a good example from last year, which didn't work out was like Sasaki.
[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't sure if he was gonna post.
[SPEAKER_01]: So people were like taking me in the 25th round and then this is the post-ities like going in the eighth round.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you take that shot in the 25th round.
[SPEAKER_01]: Take Rookie Sasaki as you're gonna gain so many rounds of ADP value and it's gonna pay off in general over time.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's my rant.
[SPEAKER_00]: There you go, rant over.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have some more closures to have signed Dylan.
[SPEAKER_00]: Ryan Helezley is to the Orioles.
[SPEAKER_00]: There were some rumors that he was potentially going to be signed by certain teams and then used as a starter.
[SPEAKER_00]: That is not the case that he is going to be a closer and Baltimore from all reports.
[SPEAKER_00]: What's your take on a Hell'sly moving a Baltimore?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a pretty good fit and a team that's kind of been looking to fill that role since, you know, Batista's sort of dealt within your over the last few seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have him in a couple of DCs that are ready for exactly the things I was just saying that half the time more than half the time he's probably going to sign and be the closer.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have him in my two dynasties as well and when you got traded to the meds and was kind of the the setup man in theory for Edwin Diaz, I was not concerned.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean it wasn't it wasn't helpful for this year but I knew he'd he'd be a closer next year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I have him a bunch of places because
[SPEAKER_01]: If you missed the first, like, sure thing closers, like under some onions, Mason Miller maybe, Kate Smith apparently is considered a sure thing, it's kind of a crap shoot.
[SPEAKER_01]: So these are guys, Devon Williams, Ryan Hellsley, who have a pretty good shot of probably being a sure thing closer in a couple of weeks when they sign.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I have Hellsley in a bunch of fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I like it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the Andrew Kichridge trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, was a bit of a trap for people when he went to the Orioles from the Cubs, and people thought, oh, here we go, here's the closer, there's about teases out.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not going to be Keegan, Aiken, Andrew Kittridge is the guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, that was a trap.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those people who jumped in an ADP have lost out because ridehouse, he's now the closer.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's, he's a sure thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: His, his fastball was hit hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, and there were some underlying things that are a bit concerning, but it's still like basically a hundred miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff plus of all has been good for it.
[SPEAKER_01]: good slider to.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you'll be a solid 20 plus save guy and that's kind of all you want to be here indeed.
[SPEAKER_00]: I cannot argue with that Dylan.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that once you're past sort of that threshold that's especially at like the draft day that's that's all you can really hope for right like there's a certain point where it's like you're you're not expecting 40 save seasons.
[SPEAKER_00]: consistently.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're paying those prices more often than not, you can be severely disappointed from a couple of mad weeks, a bad month, an injury, a lot can go wrong for closes.
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about this, I think when we released the 500 just in terms of how we sort of view closers from a
[SPEAKER_00]: with all those guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: But interesting stuff, another one.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to get into third basement, dynasty, third basement that was the rankings that were out on the site this week.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're talking a little bit about the top 10.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe a couple of names that we really like.
[SPEAKER_00]: But first, we're going to take a quick break.
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll be right back.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, Dylan.
[SPEAKER_00]: We are back.
[SPEAKER_00]: We are talking
[SPEAKER_00]: about third base prospects.
[SPEAKER_00]: Excuse me, third base meant for dynasty.
[SPEAKER_00]: Seeing this on YouTube, I just had a brain fart.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's late at night, all right.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're talking dynasty, third baseman.
[SPEAKER_00]: Might talk some prospects as well in there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Never know.
[SPEAKER_00]: But let's get into it till a number one, it's a guy that was a prospect for a while that we ranked and were aggressive with junior caminero.
[SPEAKER_00]: Where do your thoughts on Cameron Aero going forward?
[SPEAKER_00]: Just a ton of power.
[SPEAKER_00]: 21 years old hits 45 home runs, driving in a ton of runs.
[SPEAKER_00]: Looks like a true middle of the order bat and could be that for a decade and a half with the age that he has at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, you can't really go wrong at all.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got literal top of the chart, bad speed.
[SPEAKER_01]: He barrels in like the top 15% hard hit rates up there and he's 22 with 45 home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, of course, it doesn't work this way, but if you're hitting 45 home runs at age 22, you're gonna hit 50 home runs in your peak in some career years of the next, like you said it decade, like he won't even be in his prime for five years.
[SPEAKER_01]: a top of the dynasty rankings type guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would trade judge for him probably, even though we have them neck and neck and judge slightly ahead, just because of the 10 year age gap, obviously in five years.
[SPEAKER_01]: The camera now will probably be doing better than judge so you want to catch them as they as they cross over so junior Camino great has been top five prospecting the miners for quite some time and now after in you know Full full season and 45 arm runs it's exactly kind of how it was scripted
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and even though number two, Jose Ramirez is obviously quite a bit older at this point, just keeps on staying really productive.
[SPEAKER_00]: How many more years do you think he has of this level of production?
[SPEAKER_00]: Or do you sort of anticipate the steels and the power, maybe checking down a little bit over the next couple of years?
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think that it's sort of Caminaro
[SPEAKER_00]: Ramirez, and then we can talk about jazz.
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about last week, Danny Machado, and some of those other guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I almost feel like there's even clear tears within the top three or four.
[SPEAKER_00]: Where I almost feel like you'd line up 10 dynasty managers, and they might actually line these four guys up and exactly like this each and every time.
[SPEAKER_00]: So what are your thoughts on Ramirez and once the right time to maybe try to trade them is right now a good time to maybe try to sell at, you know, I want to say peak value because that probably would have been a couple years ago, but at least at a level of value that he's still maintaining is like a first to second round type of player and the return that you could definitely get on a guy like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think he's still got a couple of years in him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still 44 last year and 41 the year before.
[SPEAKER_01]: He got 6.3 war 6.5 the year before when you're in your 30s he generally like slip like half a war per year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he can slip and he'd be five and a half, slip again, five wars, slip again, four and a half war, like that's still an extremely good player.
[SPEAKER_01]: His WRC pluses at like over 130, 140, like that's going to be drop it, you know, five percent, even 10 percent, you're still going to be an above averageator for three years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think in a three-year window, I think he's still going to be extremely valuable.
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, third base of top hitter to be honest, maybe he won't steal as much, but I just from watching Jose Ramirez and me having him in a couple places for a while.
[SPEAKER_01]: He likes to steal and he likes to like he's kind of flashy that way.
[SPEAKER_01]: He wants to keep those numbers up so like he would,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I can't speak to his mindset, but like out of like stubbornness, he would want to steal and get to be a 30, 30 guy for a long time.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's something that you'd want as sort of seems like.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think I could see him being 30, 30 or thereabouts for the next three years at that point, you know, maybe get out from underneath him, but you know, I wouldn't trade him now thinking that, you know, the wheels are going to fall off any at any moment.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that's that's going to happen for a while.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: Good answer.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just, you know, I feel like it's kind of an interesting question because he is getting a little bit older and you're still getting 30, 30 seasons, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and there is some element I think of going when to sort of sell with your stars and dynasty and and, you know, it looks like sometimes you're packing in with a reality by August to the next year, it can look like a really savvy move.
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about jazz a lot last week.
[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't put him in the Ramirez tier at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: Couple more 30, 30 seasons, perhaps he is there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Certainly don't put him in the Cameron era camp just in terms of how much he can produce in terms of power.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I would have him above Manny Machado, Jordan Westberg, Austin Riley, Matt Shaw.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I really think it drops off heavily after Riley.
[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't put Matt Shaw even in the same conversation as some of both guys in terms of the production.
[SPEAKER_00]: Is Riley right here maybe like kind of the the sleeper of this group now that he's down at six especially if they have, you know, a coonue back for a full season sort of the the gangs back together.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's healthy.
[SPEAKER_00]: There are chance he kind of bounces back in a big way in 2026.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's possible now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's definitely possible he's been excellent for a long time, and he's still like he's 29 now, 30, he's heading into his age 29 season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's not old.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had, I'm just looking at it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, 2021, 33 homeruns, 2022, 38 homeruns, 2023, 37 homeruns, hit above 273 in all those seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know BP above 345 in all those seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's not that far away from it.
[SPEAKER_01]: What happened was, like, like, 2024 was kind of a loss season for the Braves and
[SPEAKER_01]: We, well, I at least kind of just felt okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: So 20, 25 is going to be the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: A cool news is going to come back and now I'll be just going to bounce back.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Michael Harris is going to bounce back and Matt Olson is going to bounce back.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was even worse for Riley and he also had some nagging side injuries and bothered him.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, he used to be like, I just listed that three year, that three year run where
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's not a short thing, 16 homeruns and 19 homeruns the last two years, some injuries kind of knocking about, I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's, I'm a bit worried.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to turn 30 soon, but him to attain those levels because he's already done it and already did it for three years is definitely, definitely possible.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: We may be fading him a bit too far here.
[SPEAKER_01]: He definitely has the upside to jump back into the top five.
[SPEAKER_01]: If he hits another 30 home runs and goes to 80, like for sure, and only being 30 years old, like that's better than Machado.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's definitely in the tank.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's in the cards, but I don't think conservative here, because there's a lot of name value for Riley, and you'd have to pay a pretty steep price forum still, I think.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and I think it's, you know, maybe 50, 50 that is this is what he is or he jumps back up to that level.
[SPEAKER_01]: So just keep that in mind when you try to evaluate him.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I kind of wonder if the price is gonna be cheap enough at this point because he's had a few of those seasons.
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe the shines off the Braves hitters a little bit that he's gonna be a much more attainable player.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the access that you're gonna be able to have later, a little bit later in drafts than you would have a few years
[SPEAKER_00]: 30 home runs, you know, with a ton of RBI's and a good batting average, you know, I still don't think it's it's outrageous to think you can balance back from that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Definitely not, but he's strikeout rate has gone up from like the last three years 24% up to 29% in the walk rate has dropped from 8% down to 6% over the last three years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's kind of heading in the wrong direction.
[SPEAKER_01]: But like I said, you could easily be 35 for a one guy to 80 batting average.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you know, maybe just point out to the guy you're trying to trade him from that, uh, hey, that the strike I rate and a lot greater going around direction.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm that's from my point is, is that I don't think you have to like pay through the nose or at this point where.
[SPEAKER_00]: A guy at 29 years old, having a good healthy offseason and figuring out where he needs to be again with the swing and getting a little bad at ball luck.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's is impossible, but he had a fair amount of last year at a 337.
[SPEAKER_00]: baby.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's not a problem.
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I don't know.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think these are the, like, it's a Kyle Schworber.
[SPEAKER_00]: Kyle Schworber was DFA and forgotten about, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, those guys that have power like this that showed and they're 20, those are the guys that I think can potentially bounce back and when they're right and that drops, that's, that's more of my argument is.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be my target anyway.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I can read that on this day today.
[SPEAKER_00]: The rest of the top 10 is really
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, Matt Shaw, Michele Garcia, Alex Braggman, Roy Sluis.
[SPEAKER_00]: You got to be honest, Dylan.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe Garcia, I could roster Garcia.
[SPEAKER_00]: I really don't want any part of Shaw, Braggman or Lewis at this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to give me Addison Barger.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I had Garcia as a guy to target.
[SPEAKER_01]: My rationale was he's got to leap back to ball skills.
[SPEAKER_01]: and he plays very good defense.
[SPEAKER_01]: So his floor is high.
[SPEAKER_01]: He hit the fourth or higher in the batting lineup like the last like third of the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good lineup.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, if any Pasquatino, Sal, Bobby Witt, Carter Jensen on the horizon, Jack may be able to put it together.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he should get runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's got a high floor.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's gonna get playing time and he's gonna get runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think my rationale in the article you'd read is that people are a bit skeptical.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's probably going to be regression because he had a career year in home runs, like 18 home runs, and a bunch of stolen bases, and so people are thinking, it's a one-off he's going to regress, and so people are skeptical.
[SPEAKER_01]: which is probably true.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a very good chance to progress, but if he does the same thing again, if he hits 15 homeruns and steals 30 bases and the sitting at the top of the order, he's gonna be worth a lot in dynasty because it's now two years that he's done it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still quite young and he's in that line if I talked about with the high floor and the good skills that don't age very well.
[SPEAKER_01]: or that age very well that don't fall off as you age.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's going to be extremely good.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a high outcome and non-trivial outcome where he will be extremely valuable in dynasty.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also a third base and steals a lot of bases, which doesn't happen that often.
[SPEAKER_01]: Matt Shaw will steal 20, but there are that many people who will steal 20 or more, like Caleb Durbin maybe, but I don't know if you want to pay too much for that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is kind of like a unicorn profile, which I like other than the jazz and the Jose Vermiris.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I like those guys that are kind of not really the guys you expect in at third base like barger, a lot of homeruns, but no power and maybe not the grade or a lot of homeruns, no speed and an okay batting average, but you're going to get the same from Isaac Brady's Mark Vento.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll go all these guys that are in that area.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're all kind of the same profile.
[SPEAKER_01]: And these guys, like Michael R.C.
[SPEAKER_01]: who are kind of a different provider like so all that to say is there's a chance that he will duplicate what he did or come close enough to what he did that his value is going to be extremely good because still very young and his floors so high anyway that his worst case outcome is is still going to be reasonable.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I I definitely I definitely sleep.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry about that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I've been writing handbook chapters not for days and rule five draft stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll out there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, my, my, my rule five, my rule five draft gas.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, there's some cheap power.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think kind of lurking in third base.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just it's a Russian roulette like after Ken.
[SPEAKER_00]: where it's like, I don't know, parades can have a really nice season, farger could have a really nice season.
[SPEAKER_00]: Mark Fiantos could hit 35 homeruns, like, if you had enough playing time, Suarez could end up in a good place and hit a bunch of homeruns.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even Noelvi Marté had a really nice bounce back season last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Matt Chapman from year to year can be really good for half a season.
[SPEAKER_00]: mystery box like we don't necessarily know Brett Bady was was better last year than he had been.
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's a lot of guys here where I think you can look really negatively or really optimisticly.
[SPEAKER_00]: But there are no guarantees whatsoever.
[SPEAKER_00]: That it almost makes the two Japanese players
[SPEAKER_00]: than a lot of these guys ranked ahead of them.
[SPEAKER_00]: When we were doing the rags and I wrote those guys up and I kind of did this section from whatever, like, bomb, down through Vargas, yeah, Vargas.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's kind of a close knit tier and it's like, I could see back and on the Japanese players being a little more upside in some of those guys, at least the players that are between like Chapman and that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think, you ever know, there, you know, but there was Maya in that tier, uh, who I think was full time playing time and health could have some upside.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I mentioned Loller at this point, I don't think Alec bomb is upside.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think he is what he is.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not going to get a 25, we'll run here on Alec.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think you're absolutely right.
[SPEAKER_01]: They've got that glob of players.
[SPEAKER_01]: They all have warts of different flavors.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's like, do you want to go for upside?
[SPEAKER_01]: And then so maybe like, laur or mire, they have a chance to prep side.
[SPEAKER_01]: You go for like this year's production, maybe, over others like Max Bancy, Matt Chapman, maybe they're a bit older.
[SPEAKER_01]: Or do you take the kind of fly or like on the Japanese?
[SPEAKER_01]: So they're kind of more unknown.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of what flavor of risk profile do you want to take?
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's kind of how you can separate it out.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: OK, I think that makes sense for sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's just a lot of, there's a lot of different names to it's a parse through that I feel
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'm wrong here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like from like 13 down to
[SPEAKER_00]: 29, you could throw all these guys up in the air and if they landed in a completely different order each time, like that's how it could be next season.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I felt like I had a lot of trouble, even in comparisons like second base, first base, catchers will do short stops and outfielders in over the next couple of weeks.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's far more like clear tiers there.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of guys in third base that you just,
[SPEAKER_00]: You maybe don't even want to like any part of, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's it's not fun to to roster Carlos Carrea.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not fun.
[SPEAKER_00]: I even think like Caleb Durban.
[SPEAKER_00]: Caleb Durban isn't that fun to roster.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like there's not that much upside on what she steals 30 bases.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we probably saw about as many home runs as he could possibly hit in the season last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Max Muncie at this point, like, he's never played like 150 games in his career.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you know, he's going to miss a ton of games, and he's starting to wear it out.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's 35 years old.
[SPEAKER_00]: Josh Young, whoof, his best season was in 2023 as a rookie, and he hasn't been good at all,
[SPEAKER_00]: Right, I don't, I don't, Miguel Vargas was much better last season.
[SPEAKER_00]: I still don't know what to expect next year with him, Brady House.
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I mean, if you could figure out when Brady house is going to finally show up and be the prospect that everyone thought he was like when he got drafted, I don't think it's going to happen at this point, but
[SPEAKER_00]: He just still hit the ball hard.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just, there's no approach and kind of bad launch anchor.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's like I go through all of these guys doing.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm just, I just take a burn book.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just, trashing all of them.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I mean, I think it's fair.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there, there are a definite,
[SPEAKER_01]: probable outcomes where the bottom just falls out of a bunch of those guys like a Korea has a bad year where he's injured and only hits like 200 like he's not going to be in the top 21 if Durban is kind of a utility guy and gets 200 plate appearances he's not even going to be in the 500 I'm sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Royce Lewis like
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of a maker break season for him, I think, because he was like a 152 WRC plus couple years ago and then last year he was an 85 WRC plus 400 plate of appearances like he played the most and he was below average hit or so what is he if he has another bad year and he'll be 27 so he's getting up there like he may not be.
[SPEAKER_01]: a guy that we would want anymore, or your league makes my want.
[SPEAKER_01]: So like they're definite, probable outcomes, like plausible outcomes, not probable plausible outcomes, where there's the bottom just falls out of the lot of these guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, as we just went through, that's kind of the gist of the story here, but you know what I'm doing?
[SPEAKER_00]: We're wrapped this up, gone through enough third base and you can go and we covered,
[SPEAKER_00]: a large chunk of the rankings more so than we probably didn't improve this week's.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you can go on to baseball america.com and read those.
[SPEAKER_00]: We also have our targets, our sleepers and our fades for this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably hinted at a little bit of those throughout this episode.
[SPEAKER_00]: But once again, baseball america fantasy, the podcast, my name is Jeff.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's Dylan.
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for tuning in.