[SPEAKER_00]: Hi folks, welcome to the episode of Film Study.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is Can Make Music.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're doing a video episode today.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you couldn't guess already, joining me is Alex Sherlock.
[SPEAKER_00]: You may know him for Twitter is at Shirley Teebo.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's S-H-E-R-L-Y underscore Teebo like Tim Teebo.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a visual look at the Ravens potential playoffs in areas.
[SPEAKER_00]: Alex, thanks for joining us today.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, of course.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for having me.
[SPEAKER_00]: Great stuff I saw this right away said that Ravens fans need to see this thing to understand the way this is logically laid out and a lot of us get our playoff scenario information sometimes from the NFL and they'll say What a team needs in addition to an in-manapolis loss, and it only charges win and this kind of thing
[SPEAKER_00]: But we're excited this week.
[SPEAKER_00]: Big win on Saturday, huge loss for the Steelers on Sunday, which they are reeling from.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now we look ahead to the Sunday night gaming.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the Steelers and all kinds of potential playoff implications for the Ravens obviously.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're win and they're in, but then it's a matter of who do they play?
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, if there's a lot of work here that basically is laid out like a logic truth table anybody you took you know logic or philosophy 101 or 105 or whatever it might be at the school you went is familiar with logic and you know truth tables being laid out this way there in mathematics too.
[SPEAKER_00]: But basically laying out all the 16 possible combinations of the other games
[SPEAKER_00]: that are not the Ravens game.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Ravens game will notice in that first column is all Ravens winning.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what we're rooting for.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and some of it took up the explanation at any point you want Alex.
[SPEAKER_00]: I like the strong silence that you've got a great information here, but this is also your dad and you're providing it so I've got to open you and lead you to this.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, take me through columns two through five and what I'm looking at.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so basically there's four of the games, besides the Ravens game that will really enough the Ravens are able to take down the Steelier Sunday night, at least four games will determine who they play.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, we have the charges at the Broncos.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Broncos are playing their starters, the charges aren't.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we have Colts, Textins, Titans Jaguars, and the Jets at the bills.
[SPEAKER_01]: Everybody's fighting for a different seating right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and pretty much Ravens have the potential to play any then.
[SPEAKER_01]: Some teams it's more likely than others.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but pretty much, you know, based on my chart I have here and then, yeah, you know, you kind of follow through it and then at the very end you'll see a wild part matchup and that's where the Ravens would play if all those games go that way.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so.
[SPEAKER_00]: I've seen so far that Houston is the team the Ravens are most likely to play according to gambling markets.
[SPEAKER_00]: At about 69% was the last number I saw.
[SPEAKER_00]: Take us to why that would likely happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, you know, you have the Texans this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're playing the cults who they're not starting Philip Rivers this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: I believe it's Riley Leonard.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have the, like I said, you know, the chargers aren't playing their starters this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they're resting up for the playoffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have the Jaguars who are playing the Titans.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they're fighting the plan to win their division.
[SPEAKER_01]: Host a playoff game.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't see any reason why the Titans would upset them.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then same with the the bills and the jets bills were eliminated from winning the A to E slash week.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I believe they're, I don't think they've announced that they're not playing starters at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would assume that should be a win for the bills.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, so I think that's kind of where the, where the bedding market is looking right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if all those, you know, fall out with the favorites, it would be the Houston Texans going to Baltimore next week.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so, well, that's, so that's important to know in the bills, I would think would be playing for seeding, even if they're not playing for a division title.
[SPEAKER_00]: So they, they, the difference between a five, six and a seven seed could still be pretty important.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, for sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: And with the Texans chargers and bills, they can finish any of those five six seven spots.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the Texans, they can even move up to three and they have the Jaguars drop down to five six or seven as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's a lot of moving that can happen between now and the end of Sunday.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm excited to see it all play on.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_00]: So what's the most important game for the Ravens in terms of, you know, I'm assuming the, the used in is the favorite, the way you've laid it out already.
[SPEAKER_00]: If the favorites all win, used in is it, what's the most important game to break out of used in playing the Ravens?
[SPEAKER_00]: I assume it'll be used in an Indian app, or sorry, Indianapolis, used in, right, to have that game flip.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, maybe a lot less likely, but tells what happens in the in the in the case of that game gets flipped.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, the one advantage that Houston has is they have the head to head, uh, typewriter over the chargers and the buffalo bills.
[SPEAKER_01]: So any scenario where it's just them and, you know, both of them or then one-on-one, they're taking out that team.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so yeah, really,
[SPEAKER_01]: But they wouldn't be playing Baltimore is, you know, they fall to the cults, um, then, you know, they would have to hope that, you know, the bills are, uh, chargers win their games.
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say it's pretty unlikely that the chargers win theirs, um, just because they're not playing starters, um, you know, if the Texans can win their game, you know, then we would want to see the Titans upset the Jaguars,
[SPEAKER_01]: it's possible, I just don't see it happening.
[SPEAKER_01]: But in that case, all of sudden, Texans are up in a three-seat.
[SPEAKER_01]: Jaguars would fall down and depending on the type records there, we could see the Jacksonville Jaguars going to Baltimore.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I would agree with you, Texans Colts would be the biggest game.
[SPEAKER_00]: OK, so if you're interested in, sorry, if Indianapolis does
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, there's, okay, some of the other way, if we used in winds and Tennessee beats the jag wars, then the jacks will fall into the five seed and would be coming to Baltimore.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a significant possibility, or it's a possibility.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they either way, there's two places on this chart where that happens, actually there's four, because there's also lines five,
[SPEAKER_00]: eight, 12 and 16, right, or I'll jacks loss.
[SPEAKER_00]: No, no, no, no, no, I've got it wrong here.
[SPEAKER_00]: Line five is one and line one, five, nine, and 13.
[SPEAKER_00]: All have jacks losing that game to Tennessee.
[SPEAKER_00]: But in one of those, they end up with the chargers as the five seed, because the chargers win their game.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in the second one, they end up with Jacksonville, and the third one, they end up with Houston anyway because Houston also loses to Indianapolis.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the fourth one, they end up with Jacksonville and Home.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so they've got multiple ways, multiple paths, they could get to a Jacksonville game in Baltimore, and those also included a Chargers and a Houston game in Baltimore.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I did have to ask you about this because it's so cool.
[SPEAKER_00]: A strength of victory would come into play in one of these scenarios.
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, that's the what the fifth thing down the after number six, number six.
[SPEAKER_00]: That tells what strength of victory is for starters.
[SPEAKER_01]: So strength of victory, that's the basically the winning percentage of every team that you have beaten this season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, every team that's saved for the Ravens, everyone that they've beaten this year, they're winning percentage, whatever that is.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the strength of victory.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just kind of the average between everyone.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's scenario is it's very messy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say it's more likely than not.
[SPEAKER_01]: that the Jaguars would win that strength of the victory scenario.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's because they already have it's a 0.005, yeah, I have it at the bottom here.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a 0.005% lead.
[SPEAKER_01]: Over the LA Chargers, there are seven or eight games, mostly NFC games, that would actually affect
[SPEAKER_01]: the strength of the victory value.
[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't listed out here, but yeah, it would take a lot to flip it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I'm actually a little bit surprised because I looked at 0.05 and I thought that might be one game difference.
[SPEAKER_00]: in terms of the the season, but maybe there is there a tie-in-volve for either team, because I know there had there was one tie.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if those two teams are in the divisions, that these guys played in the NFC, then you'd end up with at least something that couldn't end up exactly tied.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let me see the other pot the tie was the Packers and Cowboys, both the games of the Packers and Cowboys play this week would play into the Chargers strength of victory up percentage.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Chargers would want the
[SPEAKER_01]: Cowboys and they didn't want the Cowboys to upset or not upset.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Cowboys to beat the giants and they would want the Vikings to take down the packers.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like both of those have a good chance of happening.
[SPEAKER_01]: That would up there strength of victory value by 0.006 Okay You know, then it's the same time the Jaguars Those games some play into into their value They're looking at the Cardinals Rams game C. Oaks 49ers
[SPEAKER_01]: and Panthers bucks, which I believe the favorites and most of those games would help them.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why I was saying it's going to be hard to flip it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
[SPEAKER_00]: Outstanding stuff here.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a really cool way to look at it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I made a point on this show that when you're doing any kind of analysis, it's always really nice when you do universal analysis.
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at every potential outcome and look at this kind of thing and I appreciate you.
[SPEAKER_00]: you know clarifying it with in-sharp form but does two things for the viewer it not only does it does it give the information under each possible scenario which you can't do any better than that it confirms to them mentally that you checked every potential outcome that you did mention it could fall to strength of schedule I guess that would have to be in a tie in number six where there was a strength of victory tie that's the only way that could happen right yeah and honestly it there's no guarantee that it can fall to that scenario
[SPEAKER_01]: it would definitely have to involve a tie if it was there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it is there.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the Jaguar suit have a pretty significant, I think it's like 0.03% lead, which I mean, that is pretty significant.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, or the Jaguars have it lead.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, I think it would be hard to flip that to the chargers anyway.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, so very interesting stuff, but I think Raven's fans might well be hoping that they don't get strapped and that used in defense.
[SPEAKER_00]: What's your own hope for the Ravens in terms of who they get to play?
[SPEAKER_00]: If they're on.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, if they make it in, I definitely would not want to play about Texan's defense either.
[SPEAKER_01]: They had a field day against the Ravens earlier this season, granted that was the game where they started Cooper Rush.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I would trust a Lamar or Huntley if it was to come to that, you know, to put up a better to give us about a chance against the Houston Texans, but out of the 14's that the Ravens could play, I would say the Texans are probably my least preferred team have play.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's where I am as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: I probably prefer them playing the chargers above the other teams.
[SPEAKER_00]: What would be, would be fine if they played Jacksonville.
[SPEAKER_00]: And frankly, he'd love to give a little punch in the mouth to the Buffalo team here in Baltimore after having to play several, you know, couple playoff games there over the last few years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, we've always, I felt like they've always played the bills well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we had the playoff game last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like the game plan that we had, it's just, you know, we kind of shot ourselves on the foot with the fumbles, the drops, bed snaps, kind of everything going on there.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of, I feel like that's kind of the Ravens way right now is they are their own worst enemy.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I like their chances against the builds.
[SPEAKER_01]: The builds, you know, really haven't had an answer for Derek Henry.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I like the Ravens against the chargers, so I'd probably be my preferred choice.
[SPEAKER_01]: I also like them against the Jags as well, so really anyone but the Texans would be my preference.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the Ravens have faced that Texan team in the playoffs in the 2011 divisional round and they faced him in the 2003 divisional round as well, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: That got him to the FC Championship.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's 24.
[SPEAKER_00]: Did they face them in the wild card round?
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the, I think it was the Christmas game.
[SPEAKER_00]: the Christmas game, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: The 31 to 2 win.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, that's right.
[SPEAKER_00]: That was it.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's a good, it gives a little bit of hope that they can beat that Houston team.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, Alex, a pleasure talking about this with you.
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for bringing such a, such a very complete picture of this.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's hope that that very first column or the second column turns out purple here in this game because that's what we need above all else.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I really hope so.
[SPEAKER_00]: Tell folks where they can contact you online if they have a question about tiebreakers or football in general.
[SPEAKER_01]: Of course, you know, there's my, you know, my Twitter account a lot, so surely underscore TBO, SHERL Y underscore TBO W. Also my email, Alex dot Sherlock 15 at GMO.com.
[SPEAKER_01]: Both of those are great ways to reach out to me if you have any questions.
[SPEAKER_00]: all right outstanding stuff other folks out there if you have a question you'd like to get to hashtag film study meal bag please please use it and we can have that on the appropriate show or I'll put it on a one to three minute video would love to feature that Alex thanks again for coming on yeah thank you friends and we'll talk to you next time on film stuff.