[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_00]: What's up, everyone?
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed Podcast brought to you by Roto Baller.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is episode 428.
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can have me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the show is at Toolshed Pod.
[SPEAKER_00]: First-based week here in the tool shed, doing first-based prospects this episode with a phenomenal guest making his 18th appearance on the tool shed post an analyst for fantasy pros co-owner of in this league and creator of the prospect one podcast
[SPEAKER_00]: the one the only Mr. Chris Welsh at is at the Welsh on Twitter, how's it going bud?
[SPEAKER_02]: Wow, I'm like two shows away from qualifying as a tool shed.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I have two more games for full tool shed qualification and NFBC.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's huge, man.
[SPEAKER_02]: I didn't realize we counted that.
[SPEAKER_02]: I couldn't even imagine what yours are.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if I have the wear with all to go back and check, but not kind of want to.
[SPEAKER_02]: I want to see if you're prospect one eligible yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's that's great that you mentioned that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I got bored one afternoon like back in got it was a great summer And I was like, no, let me just go through the entire show list and it's like tell me it up to me an hour or two as I was writing when afternoon, but yeah, you're up to 18 now.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't know everybody in there, you know, that a fantasy baseball profit analyst league serves waiting for you to grab that dual eligibility of, you know,
[SPEAKER_00]: Prospect one and tool shed.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's me some pretty sweet eligibility.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, no, I mean, I'm I'm going for like big.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I've got like in this league Prospect one.
[SPEAKER_02]: I have fantasy pros eligibility.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then you know, I'm I'm probably borderline on like maybe there's some roto creating close with James and roto wire.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I'm probably getting even closer with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: So we're going for five.
[SPEAKER_02]: dual eligibility here.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got three.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going for super you till so a couple more episodes in brother and we'll We'll lock it up.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, glad to be here to talk about first baseman kind of yucky sometimes in fantasy Especially trying to figure out who actually qualifies the
[SPEAKER_02]: players that actually matter for the position because, you know, like, we have to be so power prominent.
[SPEAKER_02]: So this is just like a really weird one.
[SPEAKER_02]: We were talking about this off air, where talking about prospect position ranks can really be tricky because a short stop could be a short stop for four years and then all of a sudden they become a center fielder.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know what I mean?
[SPEAKER_02]: Or like, without Burhan.
[SPEAKER_02]: RIP not that he's gone just that he's not fantasy relevant was so exciting as a middle-in-feeler second baseman forever and then it was like He's an outfield or so, you know, first base first base could be tricky because there's a lot of guys that can float in here And they've really really got to meet a couple markers to be like someone that we want to die into to fall into and
[SPEAKER_02]: in like the real prospect world.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm always so fascinated with the differences between like real world scouting into how we translate fantasy and then the people that are much more real world scouting, how then they try to rank for fantasy and the common things you see.
[SPEAKER_02]: You see catchers too high.
[SPEAKER_02]: And you see outfielders dinged because they don't have center field qualification, which does not matter for us in here, you know, in fantasy, but like real outfielders get dinged if they're not like center field guys, and then also first base guys get dinged because as all the real scouts of be the big nice only like a first base only guy blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and it's like, well, what are we care?
[SPEAKER_02]: Like if the guy can hit and he's got power, that's all that we're looking for.
[SPEAKER_02]: So just saying all that, that I think the first base is,
[SPEAKER_02]: really weird and exciting because there's this real world element of all these guys getting smacked and dinged in the other position so uh... down to get into it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, that's a great point.
[SPEAKER_00]: Something I've always said whenever I do have any to my first base prospect content and it's like, you know, it doesn't maybe look great on the surface when you talk about it.
[SPEAKER_00]: But then a lot of these guys, you know, like third base will move over to first base.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, sometimes corner out of here to come into first base, catchers move off and catcher to first base.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it always ends up, you know, we end up in so happens a lot of good measures.
[SPEAKER_00]: over at the first base like price harbour where would have thought that price harbour would end up at first base when he was you know a young 17 18 year old guy and he was a catcher prospect that outfield obviously then the first base so you know what times people take you know players take it you know maybe a different path to first base as opposed to just being drafted and developed as a first base and so
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's always kind of an odd position, but we got some pretty interesting players here, especially at the top, and we'll start with our personal top 10 first base prospect rankings.
[SPEAKER_00]: We already went through and kind of made sure we were all in alignment with players that were listed here, so Chris, who are your top 10 first base prospects?
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, coming in at the top spot is Bryce Eldridge.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's my number one overall guy coming in at number two.
[SPEAKER_02]: This was the one that we had a little discussion on because he had an oddity because he was a primary third basement in the minors.
[SPEAKER_02]: But came up to the majors at the end of last year and played exclusively like first base pretty much.
[SPEAKER_02]: South Stewart comes in at number two.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, Eldridge, Stewart both guys, first base, that like, there was, I remember I talked to I'll be quick about this, but I remember talking to Eldridge in his debut, his debut at Peoria, he came out, asked him about pitching, he's like, no, I'm not going to pitch right now, and exclusively working in the outfield.
[SPEAKER_02]: They wanted him to be a corner outfielder, and then they next that first base, so that's just like more of a, you know.
[SPEAKER_02]: a thing to what we were talking about with the position.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll come in at number three, former catcher.
[SPEAKER_02]: You also have a procedure with the Tigers.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got it three, four, Charlie Condon.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a big spot of where he played in the Arizona Fall League was at first base.
[SPEAKER_02]: Coming at five is Jonathan Long and then six through 10.
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got Jacob Breimer, Cam Collier, Ryan Clifford, Ralphie Velasquez, and your boy, Pax Haba.
[SPEAKER_02]: Pax Haba.
[SPEAKER_02]: A couple of guys in there that do have some,
[SPEAKER_02]: finicky I mean for being honest to like have a good conversation about first baseman you got to have some pseudo guys Jacob Rimer played more third but he played you know decent amount of first parks harbor kind of played like four different positions first was one of them he played over ten games and cam collier in the minors was playing a little bit more third but he was exclusively first base in the AFL so understanding a few of those guys have some weird qualifications but trust me we needed it to like talk exclusive first base
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 100%, we have the same top five, just in a different order.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have Joseph Ebersignio, one, South Stewart, two, we do live there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Bryce, I'll order just three.
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are kind of like the mini tier, one for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then a little bit of a...
[SPEAKER_00]: drop down my little tier 2 here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have a Jonathan Long 4, Charlie Condon 5.
[SPEAKER_00]: I also have Jacob Rimer at number six.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have Luke Adams at number seven.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm a big Luke Adams guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Roughly of last guys at eight, Cam Collier at nine and Ryan Clifford at number 10.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's start with Bryce Alder.
[SPEAKER_00]: Is that I feel like, if I pulled 1000 people on Twitter,
[SPEAKER_00]: you know who's the number one first-based prospect.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like elder to be the guy that'll get the highest percentage of the votes.
[SPEAKER_00]: So let's start with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: And obviously getting up to you know AAA in the majors at a very young age, you know.
[SPEAKER_00]: power for days with Bryce Eldridge, but also some contact and certain.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, what type of player do you, you know, imagine Bryce Eldridge turning into, you know, he would a bit of a, you know, 28 at bat cup of coffee with the giants didn't do, you know, really anything in there, but, you know, was one of the best power hitters in terms of.
[SPEAKER_00]: a 25 home runs last year, 102 games, quality of contact metrics are also off the charts, 18 of those home runs came in 66 AAA games, you know, so what type of player do you think Bryce Eldridge come, you know, becomes at the majorly level down the road?
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I kind of think like the high side could be some of the expected of from Nick Kurt's last year.
[SPEAKER_02]: So let me explain if that makes sense.
[SPEAKER_02]: Nick Kurt's was phenomenal, right?
[SPEAKER_02]: Like we know he was phenomenal, but there were some warts against lefties more particularly the strikeout, to like a 30% strikeout issue.
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, he had like huge EVs and sane barrels, all that type of stuff, quality of contact.
[SPEAKER_02]: I would say better than Bryce Elders, but in that vein,
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think like the high side of Eldridge is some version of like the expected this year Nick Kurtz maybe like a Matt Olsenny type of guy and then I think the downside is it's much more in our face, you know it's a 220 hitter that obviously has big, predictable power but can just never hit for batting average but you know if you look at like prospects of aunt from this past year going into that kind of and I'm saying Kurtz very lightly because it's like a huge comp
[SPEAKER_02]: But if you want to look at it, Maxi V and Triple A, almost 115.
[SPEAKER_02]: He had a 108, 90th percentile X of velocity.
[SPEAKER_02]: He had a 17% barrel rate in a 63% hard hit rate.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are his Triple A stat cast numbers.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like he's a beast.
[SPEAKER_02]: and he's still growing into his body.
[SPEAKER_02]: Big six foot seven, there's big levers.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, maybe you could find some Spencer Jonesy type of like freak body comps that are in there.
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, I think, I think Bralge, Elger just got a phenomenal big left-handed swing that's going to play in San Francisco.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got a huge, huge power.
[SPEAKER_02]: but he this is a rubber meets the road over the next couple years similar to like high feel about curts in that he not only has like some of those like zone contact issues which wasn't great but you know he whiffs and he wasn't pulling the ball in the air a ton of trip away and he strikes I struck out 31% of the time so
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I get why you would have Brazilian at one, because I think Brazilian is safer.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got one, the triple crown in the AFL.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's a locked two, two, 60 floor batting average is where I would sit him.
[SPEAKER_02]: With I think a high of being a guy that
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know, maybe he's like a young D.S.
[SPEAKER_02]: type of player, you know, like a two 90 data that in he's got really good power numbers, but specifically I think there's a there's a ceiling play with Bryce Elgerage where he can be hitting, you know, behind Raphael Devers, huge RBI situations.
[SPEAKER_02]: And as long as he can be a median hitter, he can be like at least a 240 guy, I think he can hit 30 homers in the majors.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's how I feel about that prolific power.
[SPEAKER_02]: But he is also like a bunch of injury problems already in his career.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I would point out he's 21 years old like you forget about that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like you think the dude's been around a while you're like, yeah, I get to triple A and he got hurt, blah, blah, blah.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's 21.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think the young 21.
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh yeah, yeah, I think it's like two months, two months into being 20.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you mean 21 the entire season with the possibility that he could go back down, you know, to the miners to sort of triple A if the organization wanted.
[SPEAKER_02]: But
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I think this is a 30 plus with 40 homerun potential huge, huge power bat.
[SPEAKER_02]: When we talked about what does first base need to be, this is the guy that first base needs to be.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's other versions, and I think when you talked about the tearing, you were like, what?
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, Eldridge, you have Sal Stewart, like Percenio and Sal Stewart to me are a little bit closer.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are the floor contact, really good power, you know, middle of the order type of guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then you look, and maybe Jonathan long is, and I'm not trying to jump ahead, but just grouping a little bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: Jonathan long is like another version of those guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: then you've got the eldritch and the condons and maybe the Ralphie Velasquez and what are those players?
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are these like, yes, there's batting average issues that might kill some of the upside, but it's the big power.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's huge, like, real true first basement pita lawns, so like power.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those groupings, two groupings, I think are the most interesting because then what are we paired with?
[SPEAKER_02]: This we're gonna talk about in the rest of the show.
[SPEAKER_02]: You're paired with a lot of these like pseudo guys, you're like, wow.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if, you know, this guy has the power and the contact.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if this guy can ever get to the power.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I look in the traditional sense.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's two buckets of first baseman.
[SPEAKER_02]: It is the sourced sourced steward percino types.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then it is the Eldridge Charlie Condon types.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think those are the kinds that I want to bet on.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, absolutely true there.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you look at these three guys, really this entire position, there's no first base prospect right now with more upside than Bryce Aldrich.
[SPEAKER_00]: You mentioned 30 maybe even 40 Homer power.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the guy last year in AAA had a 63 and a half percent heart hit rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: EV Dam near 96 miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_00]: and a 17% Parallel rate that that is just elite elite quality of contact there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and when you compare them to South Stewart and Brazilian, you know, those guys can't match his level of upside.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you mentioned they are safe or absolutely, they both make more contact.
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll have a good power in their own right, but yeah, if Eldridge reaches even like 80% of what we think he can be, and that's still a really good, like a top 10 fantasy first
[SPEAKER_00]: got quite some time obviously everyone knows what they're streak of not having a 30 home a guy until a domis broke that this year but obviously they got him they didn't develop William Domis but they got him as a veteran but yeah the potential for just a middle-the-order thumper and I think he could start right away this year probably knew it some first base dh kind of cycling you can him and Rothfield divers I don't think they're gonna start divers the first base like you know 150 plus games
[SPEAKER_00]: or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think they can kind of move both of them to first base and D.H. and he'll probably hit like, I don't know, fifth, six, something like that, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Right behind Devers and in Chapman and the Domes and all those guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's an interesting thing for these two.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's an interesting thing you brought up too, because Devers looks like he would be the first baseman until maybe they're comfortable with Eldridge and Eldridge, because Eldridge might move around a little bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: Devers wants to D.H.
[SPEAKER_02]: But is it the contact, I mean I guess these are one in the same, but is it the contact issues that are your concern?
[SPEAKER_02]: Is it the strikeouts and I know those could be one in the same, but you could also separate those because you're into them, but you're saying you're third along that list.
[SPEAKER_02]: So you're passing on the upside for two, I don't want to say floor it in a bad way because it's definitely not.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like I know the upside of South Stewart and I personally love Brazinho from watching him so much, but like
[SPEAKER_02]: You're passing up the huge upside to play safe at the position, because are you that worried about his contact and strikeouts?
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I am worried.
[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't say it's not like a Spencer Jones level of worry, but there is some concern there for me where I look at it.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, obviously none of these guys really bring speed to the table.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I look at it.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
[SPEAKER_00]: Look at the contact and approach and look at the power.
[SPEAKER_00]: You give the power edge to L-Ridge, but I think there's a bigger difference between the contact and approach from going from Bersigno and Stewart down to L-Ridge, and there is the power of guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: Both of those guys are pretty good power, not elite power, but I'd say Bob Average plus power for both of those guys as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I just feel like they're safer bets to succeed right away and long term.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the downside is a lot.
[SPEAKER_00]: higher with that.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not as low as it is with Elders.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have this wider range with Elders for sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: As we, as we were kind of alluded to here, where, yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I just, I mean, in the grand scheme of things, they're all with an eight spots in my overall, you know, I have received no 21, Stuart 23 and Elders 29 right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: So they're all very close in my rankings.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not like anti Elders by any means, but yet that this was a little bit of concerns with the
[SPEAKER_00]: Red flag I have without a bridge, but I love all these guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, especially for saying that you mentioned, you know, he was triple crown to two AFLs ago in 2024 and I already liked him going into that AFL.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he had a good yet short in the year in 2024, but then I just seeing him out there's
[SPEAKER_00]: do damage every single of basically every single of that he was up to the play.
[SPEAKER_00]: I fell in love with Bersand on that song this year in AA and it wasn't like a beastly year but still a pretty damn good year for Bersandio between Lowe, I mean, should be between high A and AA.
[SPEAKER_00]: 20 bombs and 100 games, 266, 383, 500 slash line.
[SPEAKER_00]: I got that still caught some, but when first base, a little bit more, but I think we both think that he's going to wind up over at first base long terms.
[SPEAKER_00]: So what do you thought some were saying you were here well?
[SPEAKER_02]: I love, I love the guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean,
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, like, I mean, he removed obviously from the in person looks, but when he was out here in the Arizona fall league, you know, I, I, I take a little bit of like the personal ownership of my love for him because at that time when he was out here, he really wasn't highly sought after and I, and I've said this at Nazium to just quickly do it, but like I had this love of watching Brazilian because he was one of those guys where it was like,
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, pitchers are coming in very, very patient at the plate waiting for his pitch willing to drive counts quick bat good bat speed natural power always hit every single day.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I would immediately start jumping into this thing, er, where it would be like, hey, listen, I loved, I know I love Jacob Marcy, but this is my guy and I think coming off of the AFL there was like there was, I remember there was a negativity, a couple people being out there being like, yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: for seeing his not it like that's as an AFL thing only and I was just like it wasn't it really wasn't bam it was and you know he ended up being this this really solid 20 plus Homer 260 I actually think this year might have been that change to sell out for a little bit more power
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think he's going to be able to bounce back into that contact department.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's just got natural pure raw power.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I love the guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's just a really good bet 25 plus homers to 70.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's kind of where I would see him in the future.
[SPEAKER_02]: As long as he keeps progressing a little bit thicker dude.
[SPEAKER_02]: But, I mean, you know what I mean?
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm all in on YoSway, Perceño.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's what I say number three on my list.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I've been a huge person, and I feel like not many have him like top 25 right now like I do, but I'm so enamored with the bat.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's above average contact, he mentioned the approach, it's an elite approach, yet basically a 15% walkerate, and then just to take under a 20% carry, you know, seeing that with the level of contact he has, you know, 76, 77% and the above, you know, not even above average plus power.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's like,
[SPEAKER_00]: above average contact plus approach plus power.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think you said being an absolute dude.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe even not like a top five fantasy first baseman, dude, well like a starting caliber fantasy first baseman.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's fair to say.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and the Tigers also kind of have that thing where, you know, they've been talking, they've talked all off season where they're just like, we guys got too many of the same type of guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: We got too many of the same type of players that are low,
[SPEAKER_02]: What do we want to say like low contact high strike out there's you all built for sellout power and they wanted to start to change the game a little bit on that that's something I think Kevin McGonagold does I also think that's something that Bersini was gonna do.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think they're gonna slow him across the process so as he learns to you know Sellout and get more power maybe pull a ball more he doesn't start to regress because like he really has just a fantastic eye and I think when you're looking at floor at this position
[SPEAKER_02]: later, it's not.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a bunch of risk out there, but like, proscenio, I feel really good about it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, not same here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, yeah, once they get that they're elite hitting prospect trail up there, you know, get max Clark out there, you know, hitting the top of the order, doing his damage, get proscenio in the middle there, get McGonagal probably hitting like two or something like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, that, you know, once you add in, you know, the greens and the torques and the carpenters, et cetera, you know, even, you know, Dylan Dingler, that's a pretty, pretty good lineup, you know, one through nine,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, Colt Keith as well, you know, Detroit's building something there, and I think you could probably see all three of their top guys, especially McGonigal obviously, but I think I think we're seeing who could debut like later on in the season, but probably the bulk of it will probably spend in AAA this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I would agree with that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, let's move down to that little second tier.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was mentioning with Charlie Condon and Jonathan Long.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm a huge huge Jonathan Long guy, but let's start over with with Condon because when you and I talked back in, you know,
[SPEAKER_00]: April or something like that, you know, everybody was pretty much down on on Condom.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was he he got turned this season around and hype is now, you know, turning back up for the last six months or so.
[SPEAKER_00]: So now, well, it's where you add on Condom that you think he's going to be, you know, it's still a pretty darn good offensive guy and maybe even a guy that we see make an impact for the Rockies in 2026.
[SPEAKER_02]: I definitely think we're going to see him in 2026.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's for sure.
[SPEAKER_02]: Where I'm kind of sitting on him now is like, I think he's going to be fine.
[SPEAKER_02]: you know I'm getting at like I don't think I don't view him as the when he got drafted oh my gosh look at Charlie Condon he's in Colorado give him he hits 280 and then all the sudden what could he be is he going to be a guy that has 50 homers now I don't think so like he started to show some signs in the airs in a fall league of
[SPEAKER_02]: more progression because I've had my weird history when he was last year kind of rehabbing a rookie ball he looked so bad and I can't overstate how bad he looked and then he had this really good season AFL kind of started the same picked it back up a little bit trying to show a little bit more patience waiting and sitting on some secondary stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: But at the end of the day like I think he's going to always have swing and miss issues maybe that'll progress over a couple years, but I view him is like a 240 guy, but hitting in Colorado with his pure raw power and he's got some athleticism, you know, he could have had an inside the park home or in the AFL that he kind of pulled up on.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think 240, not to be like all these guys aren't going to be like 30 homer guys, but like hitting in Colorado if he hits 240 I legitimately think you know there's a 30 homer and bat in there, but you know what?
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm a little worried about a little worried like he becomes
[SPEAKER_02]: like the expected stat Michael Tolia remember Tolia where it was like you know he can hit thirty thirty five homers and you know he's an XBA hit two ten but his XBA's two thirty eight little worried condon could kind of fall into that spot but I do you think he's made a lot of big progression he's the classic sense of a of a first baseman and he's got a really great home ballpark.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's getting to the point where like the miners are kind of being beyond him and I'm really worried about the like high fastball versus low breaking pitches.
[SPEAKER_02]: He just eats low breaking pitches and if you get him mixed up, he has not learned to fully catch up, but I do think he took a few positive steps.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm, I'm, I'm median on him at best kind of across the board, but I don't want it to deny that he doesn't have like 40 homerun potential.
[SPEAKER_02]: That might be in his path.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think it's going to be a slow progression for him into being like a really good, you know, elite, to an elite fantasy player.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I think he's going to be average for a while.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, I usually suck at comps and people ask, oh, who's this guy comp to?
[SPEAKER_00]: I try to avoid it because I'm just not good at it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I don't really like them in general, but sometimes it really sticks out one this sticks out to me and this hits me right in the face.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have one here for Condon.
[SPEAKER_00]: And more so like what I think he can be statistically.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then it goes back to the team we just talked about.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he could be like a Spencer Turquoise in type where it's like the lower average 22232 40, but like a 30 homery guy, that's kind of what, you know, Turquoise you took last year, I took it 240 or 31 bombs, you know, I think that's kind of what we could see with Condon, because there's still some strike out issues, so even this year once you got it going, it was still a 28% K-ray in double A.
[SPEAKER_00]: So this,
[SPEAKER_00]: So some of the swing and miss concern, but obviously that that raw power is absolutely there.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, Colorado has a good way of masking some of these issues, at least in some degree, but yeah, I do think I don't think it's the Michael Toli a bad, but yeah, I think you can see yeah, I could 23240 type of hitter with 2530, maybe even a little bit over that some season's home runs.
[SPEAKER_00]: So maybe I'm starting first basement, but you can be a good corner and feel bad.
[SPEAKER_02]: I love that comp.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you did a really good job with that, because I think that's exact, that's the exact type of stuff that you're talking about with him.
[SPEAKER_02]: Is like the 232-40, 30, Homer, and the Torx specifically, though they're very different like body types.
[SPEAKER_02]: I remember watching Torx at ASU, the very first thing I noticed, and I talked about this a ton on my, my Prosperic one show,
[SPEAKER_02]: was, oh my gosh, you throw him, you know, a breaking ball low in the zone and he is just barreling through it.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then he played in the AFL.
[SPEAKER_02]: I remember if I think it was McKinsey Gore, very first game of the AFL when he played that was like 2020 was right after COVID, like her in the midst of it.
[SPEAKER_02]: Boom, he's just me kind of go or just drop in curve balls low in the zone and he's eating that that's the same vibe of Charlie Condon, but Charlie Condon from an athleticism standpoint is I think better then Then Spencer Torkel since I think that gives him a little bit more upside.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not sure he's ever going to like, you know run like run or anything like that, but
[SPEAKER_02]: just better athleticism for holding up.
[SPEAKER_02]: So he's polarizing, I think that's the thing.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's why you take them out of the tier, the Sal, Bersinho, and Eldridge, they're their own thing.
[SPEAKER_02]: And then I think you start to walk in and you're like, hi Jonathan Long.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I'm a mini, yo say, Bersinho.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got 20 home or power.
[SPEAKER_02]: I could hit for higher average.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, maybe I'd lose some power and I'm an RBI guy hitting in the middle of the lineup.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, something like a Josh Nailer type, like Jonathan Long could be like a Josh Nailer type.
[SPEAKER_02]: but he lacks maybe some of the upside and you pair him with the upside guy and Charlie Condon.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are those two first-based contrasts again.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think they're in their own little bucket after the top three guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 100% and that's why I go long over a condom though again, they're both pretty close in my rankings, but you know, Jonathan long you just look at he doesn't have that one tool that stands out and why was you, but he just does so many things well, I mean he's above average hit he's above average approach he's above average power, but he's just not
[SPEAKER_00]: Plus, any one of those areas, but it was a 13% walkerate, 19% carate.
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at the quality of contact, the last year in Triple A, 91 mile an hour average EV, 47% hard hit rate, 10% barrel rate, you know, so he's just really, really solid.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know where is he fit long term with with the cobs up.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I was hoping that he could trade it last year or that they would trade one of a cam or even like an own Casey, you know, for some pitching last year to obviously that did not happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: They said, Michael Bush, at first base, who's coming up a pretty darn good year, DH will be clogged up by some variation of Suzuki or Biostero, so it's like, where the heck the Jonathan Long even played.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's like the one kind of knock on him right now is no open pathway to major leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I wonder, like, there's a few teams that are doing this and it's just kind of annoying and you just like, you gotta have a team or two that just picks aside and says like, yeah, get it.
[SPEAKER_02]: You don't wanna get rid of this major talent, but like, what does it do for you?
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a hold all of these block players for two or three years.
[SPEAKER_02]: You also, theoretically, can kill some of the trade value.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think you can usually argue of the trade value of Owen Casey has taken some big smashing hits, and you don't wanna see that.
[SPEAKER_02]: So,
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_02]: I agree with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like make a commitment or not, but you also don't want to give up, you know, like Dodgers of Michael Bush, like what if Jonathan Long is the next Michael Bush and you want to hold on.
[SPEAKER_02]: But there is an element of like you got to let these players develop.
[SPEAKER_02]: This would be one of those years.
[SPEAKER_02]: But that's like also you as a fantasy on you got to figure out like how important is proximity always to you You know does this guy need to produce this year to to be great because if he doesn't and you can sit on this stuff That's why that's why I think you can value Eldridge over a lot of these guys Let him simmer a little bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's why maybe you just need to let Jonathan long get that spot and then all the sudden
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, maybe the cubs trade him out and he just like Michael Bush traded to them then he can be that but yeah, I don't see I don't see where the spot is right now but it doesn't mean he can't be fascinating and stuff like that But yeah, like I said he's in that bucket.
[SPEAKER_02]: I agree.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know where he can play they got too many guys too many prospects but hopefully it is gonna be soon
[SPEAKER_00]: too many prospects in the kitchen.
[SPEAKER_00]: Isn't that too helpful?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it isn't that the old saying?
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the last guy I kind of wanted to get into within the top 10, at least, is Cam Collier because I feel like Cam Collier's been a good discussion point.
[SPEAKER_00]: Ever since he came into professional baseball, he's been people that were, you know, the whole power debate on him, like right off the bat.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like he's still a guy that there's a wide range of rankings on him and his production.
[SPEAKER_00]: has kind of fed into that because he's been pretty inconsistent like 2023 he wasn't hitting for average even 2024 this past year he did but the power at least in game kind of went away I mean in 2025 95 games hit 279 great 390 will be p great 15% walk rate great we had four home runs in 396 point appearances and a carrot that was a little bit
[SPEAKER_00]: high, you know, 26, 27%, so he's one right.
[SPEAKER_00]: I've always struggled where I want to put him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I still like him, but this point, he's just a very difficult prospect to rank.
[SPEAKER_00]: So where are you at now on Call Your Welsh?
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I completely agree with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's so much I want to like about, I mean, I like Cam Call Your Ingeneral.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a great guy, just a personal guy, but the AFL opened up a lot of stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: I very first night, I'm sitting with a friend of mine and
[SPEAKER_02]: Cam we're I think it was in Scottsdale and we're sitting right there and cams kind of sitting next to us And the bases are loaded and they were having a pitching change and I look over to cam And I'm like cam.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm like that wall over there.
[SPEAKER_02]: That pulse side looks real nice like it's only 330 Yeah, I'm making some joke about the pulse side and he looks and he's like no, no, no and he laughs about it
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I know that I can be nothing to anybody, but to me when I look at that thing he said to me, and then I think about the rest of the AFL, this is a guy who's not interested in pulling the ball, not a pulled air percentage guy, which we've seen so much success, and I'm not saying he can't do it by the way, because the thing I've always liked about Cam is as he's progressed, he's got like a really good eye in his own.
[SPEAKER_02]: he chokes up into strike counts.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's going to make a lot of contact spray the ball over the field.
[SPEAKER_02]: He hit a monster Homer in the AFL that showed off some of that big raw power.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'd have to go to, I couldn't even look while I'm doing this, but I'd have to go and look for what AFL and prospects of on ended up having it.
[SPEAKER_02]: But like,
[SPEAKER_02]: it was one of those like big hard hit ones and I don't know.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, here we go.
[SPEAKER_02]: I found it.
[SPEAKER_02]: It was the third hardest hit ball in the Arizona Follig registered at a 115 EV.
[SPEAKER_02]: So we can't say that Cam Collier doesn't have like some big power.
[SPEAKER_02]: He rocked that thing 115 and it was pulsied.
[SPEAKER_02]: It was beautiful.
[SPEAKER_02]: But it was super inconsistent.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was chase and high fastball so much in the AFL because he's not looking to pull the ball He just wants to spray the ball across the field into me.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's not especially with the like his approach type and pull in, you know choking up and everything I don't I think that's going to be a struggle to be a traditional natural first baseman
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't, I think he can change, he's young, he's 21 years another guy, he's 21 years old, he played exclusively first base in the AFL, he was great defensively, but he was so inconsistent, he struck out way more than I think he would ever like anyone to know.
[SPEAKER_02]: He hit only 218 while he was out there, I think he's got some really great intangibles, but I moved down on him, so not to be like, you know, sometimes it can feel like we're polyana and stuff like that on every single player, I wasn't.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I personally like him a lot, but what I saw of that version of Cam Collier, I'm worried that he can survive, especially as a fantasy first baseman, because I don't think he's going to tap into the power.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's going to chase a little bit too much right now, even though he has the ability to be an ace contactator.
[SPEAKER_02]: To me, he's like a second baseman in a first baseman's body.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's fair.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's where he's he's still so young.
[SPEAKER_00]: He just has 21 like a month ago or whatever was 11 late November.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's he's on the whole play all of next season that 21 will likely spending a good chunk of that season in AAA like outside of 2024 when he was at Dayton in the Midwest league.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he had 20 home runs and 119 games there.
[SPEAKER_00]: The rest of his minor league career 12 home runs in 215 games.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he really only hit for power at one level.
[SPEAKER_00]: Didn't hit really much in Daytona and low A.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then I already mentioned the spasher and high A and double A.
[SPEAKER_00]: So not really a lot of game power there.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you mentioned the raw power is there.
[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen it time and time again.
[SPEAKER_00]: The raw power is there.
[SPEAKER_00]: but he needs the bat to the be there because he's not a guy that runs really at always eight career steels.
[SPEAKER_00]: So not really getting that element of value for fantasy.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you need the bat to be there, especially if you're going to be a you know, whether it's first base or they end up moving back the third which I doubt.
[SPEAKER_00]: But just as a corner and filter in general, especially a first base when you need that bat to stand out.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know if it's going to stand out to the level that we need it to.
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you still have them as a top 100
[SPEAKER_00]: I do not, I have Kim Collier right now, I don't want one word heck as a 120 right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's still like in the ballpark, but yeah, I don't have him to top under a guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, yeah, I think I'm about the same.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm like 120 or 130 and I'm a guy that had him in the 80s and 70s, so I really wanted to believe.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know his his his dude Alfred'll do know his move pass him and I like I think you know from a human perspective He's like one of my favorite dudes.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's got a great vibe about him.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he can be a real good baseball player like really great defensively But I always go back to James Looney
[SPEAKER_02]: James Lloyd was like, you know, not a traditional typical first basement because you get like 18 homers and you'd be like 70 70 whatever like that's the cat cam caller like he's an unnon traditional first basement to me.
[SPEAKER_00]: And how much of James only probably hit like around 270 to 80 first career about the what was it pulling one for now oh 280 for yeah, but yeah, he was a high contacter yeah, but he was like actually very consistently like that 10 to 15 home arranged like net never had any year which 20 home runs as a first baseman said yeah kind of like you mentioned the anti you know what you think about as a first baseman.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and like philosophically, things could change, but, and it's just one little thing, but, you know, from Cam, like, kind of laughing off the idea of pulling the ball and getting aggressive to pull the ball in the air, then consistently not doing it through the entire AFL.
[SPEAKER_02]: getting into spots where he just wants to drive it up the middle.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like that's not a bad approach, but to me, that's the approach, the pull-air percentage that he needs to do to tap in to like the unrealized talent that we're hoping for.
[SPEAKER_02]: Otherwise, there might just be a point where he's just like screw it.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, like, let's just make contact.
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's be Jose Miranda or whatever.
[SPEAKER_02]: And like, let's just hit 280, but it's just kind of low everything else.
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's what I'm worried that we're heading towards.
[SPEAKER_02]: But he's very young.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like that's the other thing to not like,
[SPEAKER_02]: discount and throw away a guy like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's still very young.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, yeah, still very young.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have definitely one of the more difficult guys for me to rank at least.
[SPEAKER_00]: But all right, let's move into the 11 through 20 part of our rankings here.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I'll shoot you on these spots.
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, where did we leave off that?
[SPEAKER_02]: Who is one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nice apologies.
[SPEAKER_02]: I had to, I didn't have my thing numbered here.
[SPEAKER_02]: Coming in at 11, 11 through 20, I've got Ethan Petrie, who's out here in the Arizona Fall League, really liked him.
[SPEAKER_02]: Outfielder, big body first-based type of guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: Davis and Dale Asantos, we've still got.
[SPEAKER_02]: Tray Morgan, Xavier Isaac, Ivan Melinda's, couple Brewers, Luke Adams, and Blake Burke.
[SPEAKER_02]: Victor Figaroa, who's a Padre who I watch a ton of
[SPEAKER_02]: And then a podry, Kale Fountain, that's my 11 through 20.
[SPEAKER_00]: Kale Fountain, they love those good names to start with K out there in the Munderers system.
[SPEAKER_00]: That is for sure.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're like the Roger Clemens of Teams, just name all my prospects with the K, please.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yep, 100%.
[SPEAKER_00]: 100%.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, for me, I got, so I left off with Ryan Clifford, so I am at 11 Xavier Isaac Blake Burke at 12.
[SPEAKER_00]: Tyler Black at 13, Tray Morgan, 14, Chris Swarrow, who I have eligible here at the IF double check that at 15.
[SPEAKER_00]: Victor Figurola at 16, Eric Patonti, another Milwaukee guy, and then they just, you know, grow them according to the prospects and trees there in Milwaukee system.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's at 17.
[SPEAKER_00]: Pax Haba 18 favorite name to say right now 19 of Biblical Ortiz so the rangers and 20 former Red Sock blaze Jordan now with the St. Louis Cardinals.
[SPEAKER_02]: So my note is if Swarrow does qualify
[SPEAKER_02]: I would have him at 1112.
[SPEAKER_02]: I would have him at 15 on this list.
[SPEAKER_02]: I love Chris Swero after the Arizona Fall League.
[SPEAKER_02]: Catcher, but he played, he actually played outfield out here and catcher almost exclusively, so I didn't look at his games play, but I have him as a catcher in my ranks, but he would be 15 on my list if that counts.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, I had him.
[SPEAKER_00]: He did play some, I see in in single A and hi, I mean, he had 12 games there for in four and double A.
[SPEAKER_00]: So 16 overall.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's not bad.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: These were those guys who I kind of included to, you know, help make the rankings look a little bit better when I was going through my, I might article version of this.
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I know you're a big swirl guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: You're probably the biggest swirl guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, just I absolutely love him and I sometimes more than anybody that does like the Prospect Granks, I fall into tools and especially at lower levels would give excuses to some of the chaos, Spencer Jones of course.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, but Chris Swarrow was like, he's such a phenomenal big bat speed guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: There was like a not just because he was a mep, but there's like this lindorness to him.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, big, crazy, big flashy bat speed.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got swinging miss in his game.
[SPEAKER_02]: He didn't really tap into the swinging miss out here and there was an authority.
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a lot more hit than miss.
[SPEAKER_02]: Opposite field power crushed one in Scottsdale opposite field look like it went 400 plus He also was playing in left field diving catches He was making in left field.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's like it's like a really good versatile player that You know, how's the skill set to be a 2020 guy?
[SPEAKER_02]: So if he were to be playing first base
[SPEAKER_02]: I'd be all about that.
[SPEAKER_02]: He'd be one of those out of position type of players that if you were playing regularly, he would have 15 to 20 at the major league level, but you know, his versatility, whether he's catching first base or in the outfield, like that's going to get him to the major leagues.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if he can cut down the strikeouts, he's going to be like real dude level.
[SPEAKER_02]: That, that I can tell you, he will be massive dude level this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, absolutely, and we're seeing him out in Arizona, that was my first time seeing him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't have a chance to see him when he was in AA, but yeah, he was just really impressive.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's a good athlete too, you know, good amount of bags this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I got it wondering how many still does he provide long-term, but so I've known that we're the heck, he's an end-up long-term either defensively, but yeah, he's just a really intriguing guy that can kind of play multiple spots.
[SPEAKER_00]: give you some power, give you some speed.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's just a fun player for sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, he's one that I like a good bit too.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think you even, you turned me on to him even more.
[SPEAKER_00]: I already kind of liked him.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then once you were like, oh man, Chris Swarrow, that was a guy, let me dig into Swarrow a little more here.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, once you just start to see him, just really, really good athlete.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the thing, a big team player, kind of, like, little swagger too, like he's kind of got that star mentality that's kind of built into him, he ended up being like in the top end race of homers and, you know, I got to see quite a few of them and the thing that, like I said, I was so impressed with is it was all fields hit one to center hit one opposite field, pull side guy can run, complete multiple positions.
[SPEAKER_02]: it's going to be the swing and miss like when he gets challenged at the higher levels, he can't have one of the worst chase rates.
[SPEAKER_02]: He can't have a 30% capercent percentage.
[SPEAKER_02]: So if that's around like 21, 22% or something like this this year, then I think it's like watch out for him because he has all the making so being like a 20 to 25 25 guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, definitely a fun prospect for sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: A couple of names here, one to dive into a little bit here that I've all, you know, lost a little bit of their value over the last year or so, you know, probably we're all considered top 10 guys last year, they're now all outside of our top 10, and that's they be some of the Los Santos with Miami and Xavier Isaac and Tray Morgan with Tampa Bay, so I guess all floor to prospects here, you know,
[SPEAKER_00]: any of these three well sure you might be looking to buy low on and maybe the answers no maybe the answers no I'm not looking to buy low any of these guys but they all had their issues for for one reason or another you know you have them I think back to back right and you're rankings yeah right now I have them see I but I Isaac at 11 we're gonna at 14 and Davis and was just outside he's number 22 for me with Calamost being number 21 so just outside only like seven spots in my overall
[SPEAKER_00]: behind Blaise Jordan.
[SPEAKER_00]: So definitely in that same tier.
[SPEAKER_00]: So any of these for you looking to buy low on if any at all?
[SPEAKER_02]: I wish I wish I could tell you that I was like really positively about any of these players.
[SPEAKER_02]: I haven't seen all of these guys quite a bit in person, specifically long, Morgan and Isaac in the Arizona Fall League, and then Dale Asantos, you know, simply because he was
[SPEAKER_02]: from a power perspective, it's easily data-santos, you know, he like led into, I think it was like two years removed from leading the minor leagues and hits, but he's got some big swing and miss issues.
[SPEAKER_02]: Tray Morgan, I think is a better real-life player, quintessential raised type of player.
[SPEAKER_02]: He, actually, to be honest with you, I might be like the lowest on him.
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, everybody knows now about the Isaac situation, having the brain surgery.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, there's so much of that.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's probably the most physically talented.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, he really improved his body, really impressive level.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I saw him in the following, but the results were never there.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think at this moment, if I was, it's data Santos.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, just simply because I think there is insane power that is not been realized.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's still super young.
[SPEAKER_02]: I would not be surprised though if Isaac's the one that pops and I think that at the end of the betray Morgan is in that camcorder class.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's just a, just a dude that is going to be a better probably real baseball player than fantasy guy.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think, you know, positionally, positionally, he like really fits there.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been playing in some outfield as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: So I probably least interested in him, but I wouldn't label any of these guys as players that I'm trying to acquire.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm kind of there with you.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if any, I might go after Isaac's because I think he has the highest upside for fantasy, given the fact that he's a good athlete, you can, you know, add some, you know, some steals as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I just don't think Tray Morgan's ever more than just like a, a deeply.
[SPEAKER_00]: guy.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see him being a people out there listening to play and like you know 12 15 team leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't really see him being much us a maybe a back in guy in those formats.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's probably more valuable like a 20 25 30 team league.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's this and this is like wrong with him.
[SPEAKER_00]: I still think the upside.
[SPEAKER_00]: it's really there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like it is with Isaac and Alessanto's, they both have their contact issues, you both have good power, you know, David Smith especially.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I might look by low on those guys just given the fact that even though I'm not like super high on them in general.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I wasn't even like kind of like when they were at peak value a year and a half ago, it's just that I think there are price tag is so low now just given the seasons they both had and 25 where it might be worth it's like that low risk, but potentially higher award.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, kind of deal that you love to make and die as a league.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I might go after one of those two not so much more again I'm not really super intrigued by him Even I have him ranked higher than Davis son.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just not a big morrowing guy in general But I can see going after the other two.
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess if I had to pick what I'd go Isaac here the other three
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think we're in that, again, if you give back to the prototype, you know, what was the prototype of what you're looking for in a first basement, we're just out, you know, we're out of the range of, you know, there were some guys we didn't talk about like in, you know, Ralphie and maybe like Park's Harvard, like we're just kind of out of the range where guys fully fit the mold of some of the, you know, there might be some characteristics of some of them, but those three, they just,
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, like Dallas Santos I think has like plus plus power, but it comes with like a 40 bat, you know, and it's just like that's that's a worse projection than what you're going to put on even like, you know, Charlie condon or whatever, where Charlie could be like a 230 hitter, Dallas Santos might be a 200 hitter, you know, a guy that can't make the majors because he can't realize that power.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's where we are in the rankings here.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's either, they don't have a lot of power, like a Tray Morgan, who has pretty solid contact, or they're the high power, but super low contact types.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, once we get down to this part of first-based prospect rankings, it gets pretty hairy, pretty quick, and one way or another, for sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's a lot of them walk you guys in our guy have five walk you guys in my top like 250 that are all corner and fielders and you can even extend it further than that.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you know, Luke Adams corner and fielder even Andrew Fisher who we didn't have rank because he's primarily a third baseman.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's in the picture, like Burke, Tyler Black, Eric Patonti, even like a Mike Bove as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, what do you think is all these, let's just kind of make it broad here with these Milwaukee guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, how do you see, you know, this kind of first and third-based spots in Milwaukee winding up, is anybody think kind of rises about the rest, anybody your higher on, lower on?
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll give you the floor here with all these Milwaukee.
[SPEAKER_02]: Why Andrew Fisher's the one, but I don't have him as a first baseman.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a third baseman was primary third base.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he could get there.
[SPEAKER_02]: If he counted, he would be number five of my overall first baseman list.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's the guy in sane bat speed.
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, that's something you're looking for.
[SPEAKER_02]: Good contacted over 300 in the majors.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was stealing bases.
[SPEAKER_02]: I saw one game.
[SPEAKER_02]: out here.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was him and Brady Ebel after they were drafted.
[SPEAKER_02]: I got to see them in a bridge league game and massively impressed with Andrew Fisher.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like this guy looks like a stud.
[SPEAKER_02]: And he's going to be, he's a first year target.
[SPEAKER_02]: It should be a first year target for absolutely everybody.
[SPEAKER_02]: But then if you jump off the list there, you know, the guys I have at first base are Luke Adams and Blake Burke.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think Blake Burke, you had a like a solid season.
[SPEAKER_02]: I saw him once in person during the bridge league a year ago with Braille and Payne.
[SPEAKER_02]: I thought I didn't love the body.
[SPEAKER_02]: He looks a little bit more de-h type to me.
[SPEAKER_02]: Luke Adams, I saw a ton of this year in the Arizona Fall League and he's actually got a pretty good complimentary of skills.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like the guy will have a high OPP and he'll walk.
[SPEAKER_02]: He has huge power was in the home run Derby.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just I mean, he had some moon shots out there.
[SPEAKER_02]: but i think he's just kind of average like i think he's a guy the the the floor or the the ceiling is probably him hitting 250 you know like maybe the ceiling is like the version of Reese Hoskins that was with the brewers you know 250 25 maybe 30 homers that's like a ceiling best case scenario more likely the notties probably hitting between 230 and 240 takes a couple years maybe he ends up finding a way to be in the majors like i think in deep deep leagues like
[SPEAKER_02]: Blake Burke, I'm kind of indifferent about, but Andrew Fisher's the only one I want to own.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't have Potonti as a first basement or anything like that.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like Potonti's interesting, there's a really big physical, like the body, it's like George Wolko.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, there's a big six foot four, whatever it is, just like built the guy and if he were, if you were a first basement and he learns to hit a little bit more,
[SPEAKER_02]: I think like that is a maybe 10 stolen base, 30 homer potential, but Andrew Fisher is the only one that I feel adamant about, but I did change my tune on Luke Adams after seeing him this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: He isn't.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's inside my top.
[SPEAKER_02]: Let me what I have in three in the top 300 or so somewhere right in that range.
[SPEAKER_02]: Let me see.
[SPEAKER_02]: I have him.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, inside the top 300.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, look at him's like, I think I'm hired the most on look at him's at this point, but it's kind of a weird, you know, overall profile where he isn't really feel like a first basement at times, but you know, it's really good, you know, really good approach, I mean he used 16 and a half percent walk 20% K rate last year, but he's hit, you know, in that 230 facility each of the last two years, but the context skills are really good.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a high 70s low 80% contact last year was wrong.
[SPEAKER_00]: from like 77%, 78%, you know, just, he gets really pull happy that, you know, especially in double a last year, 55% pull rate, you know, so this doesn't hit the ball at ideal angle, which has been his issue, but you know, solid power can run a little bit too, so he's just a kind of an odd one.
[SPEAKER_00]: If it's wide range of rankings on him, but yeah, Andrew Fisher definitely, he's obviously not included here in our rankings, but loving Andrew Fisher, he's a guy
[SPEAKER_00]: a lot in FYPD, but yeah, this Milwaukee, they have so many of these corner-end field types.
[SPEAKER_00]: They have a type and they kind of go after it, and that's where they're kind of clogged up in the minor leagues with these guys, but yeah, I think Luke Adams, Luke Adams is an end to Fisher, the two corner-and-fielders for them.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm the most excited about personally.
[SPEAKER_02]: I still like Brock Wilkins like I'm a Wilkins.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Wilkins would be one.
[SPEAKER_02]: I would buy him.
[SPEAKER_02]: But he's the only play third base didn't play a much.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was out here's injured had a lot of issues.
[SPEAKER_02]: But like if I had to pick my favorites, it's like Fisher first Wilkins are really really good by low deep league as little gradams.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like that would kind of be my approach with you know, bovie and baton team.
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm just would say I'm indifferent about like we rank them.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're fine.
[SPEAKER_02]: But I don't have like a strong pull on any of those guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think we're pretty much in step there with these Milwaukee guys next up here a couple of old guys that aren't like super high in the rankings, but could have some value here in 2026.
[SPEAKER_00]: Blaze Jordan with these homeless Cardinals and Ryan Clifford with the New York Mads.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the Mets are, you know, they obviously just lost Peter Lanzo.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that opens up first base.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we'll see, maybe Mark the Antoscus out over there, but maybe a little bit easier
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, then before if Peter Lanzo had come back for Ryan Cleford and Blaze Jordan, you know, obviously can you speak with the Red Sox now with the Cardinals who are going through a bit of a rebuild.
[SPEAKER_00]: So maybe you see some 2026 major league time for Blaze Jordan.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, so where are you at on these two Welsh and how much of an impact you think we might see from them in the major level this year?
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, I'm definitely big on rank Clifford.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know, like, I have them in a different tier than, like, because you brought him in here.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if you're, like, low on him.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got him inside my top six first basements.
[SPEAKER_02]: So,
[SPEAKER_02]: He's in a completely different tier than Blaise Jordan.
[SPEAKER_02]: Blaise is difficult.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's changed organizations.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a teenager on YouTube.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's crazy, big power.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, we were seeing these monster homer, 400 foot homers or whatever it was, it was a 13 year old.
[SPEAKER_02]: But like he's just kind of struggle with consistency.
[SPEAKER_02]: Ryan Clifford definitely kind of has that as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a there's a batting average issue.
[SPEAKER_02]: But at the same time, 29 homers, 93 RBIs.
[SPEAKER_02]: He had a 356 OBP while only hitting 237 this past year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, can he make a concerted effort to be in the majors this year?
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not 100% sure.
[SPEAKER_02]: But like, you look at the prospects of on-stuff.
[SPEAKER_02]: 90th percentile EV, 107.
[SPEAKER_02]: he had a 12% barrel rate love to see that expected batting average was slightly better big hard hit numbers pulled the ball in the air that something Bryce Eldridge wasn't doing when we looked at that and he made a ton more contact much higher contact percentage than any of the other guys he just has like a swing and miss kind of capersanage issue so I think you know still young enough to he's like 22 years old like this is the guy that I want to bet on so do you have him outside your top 10?
[SPEAKER_00]: at this position, we don't have Clifford cranked.
[SPEAKER_00]: What do I don't even see him, right, lay him at?
[SPEAKER_02]: He is one of those first base, like out there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, there he is.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have an eight at this position, yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I do it in top ten as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, so we're close.
[SPEAKER_02]: So he's in kind of a different Paul Park.
[SPEAKER_02]: It does look like with the cardinals and they're rebuilding like blazes gonna get a shot.
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, this is the difference between like I have Clifford in the territory of the colliers, the Velasses, the guys that I want to own
[SPEAKER_02]: Blaze, I guess, again, is still like young enough, and he's got some proximming in his game that if you can potentially make that bet, but I just don't know what type of prospect he is, and I don't think he's shown enough like skill that I want to make, I want to make the jump in it.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like Victor Figaro is one.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a year younger.
[SPEAKER_02]: He was out kind of dealing with this wrist injury.
[SPEAKER_02]: The podgerace kept him in the minor, it's just like a little too long.
[SPEAKER_02]: Aaron rookie ball last year so you know he's 21 and he's only, you know, put up high A, but he was doing some bases.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a big physical dude.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's got insane power.
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got a really great homeer on my, um, on my Instagram and my Twitter if people want to check it out.
[SPEAKER_02]: He with the pod rays.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I really like his bat.
[SPEAKER_02]: Almost a 400 O BP this past year.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there's some strike at issues, but like he's a year younger in that that BlueJay system left handed bat that, you know, is on the good side where you want in Baltimore.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like I want to make a bet on Figure Roa before I do plays, please shorten.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm there with you.
[SPEAKER_00]: The one thing that's kind of at least kept me still somewhat intrigued on Blaze Jordan, the guys make so much contact.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's kind of funny when he was first drafted, he was a thought of like, oh, this big power kind of project for the right, yeah, it sucks when they took took him what I can't remember what year they took him now this point.
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, it's been several years obviously that he's been impressionable, but you guys, you know, hasn't only put up the big in-game, you know, home run totals, you can hit 18 home runs of 23, but by and large, and last year was 19, and never really had those huge power numbers, but the contact has been like really, really good throughout, especially the last couple years where.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now he was he's been above 80% contact each of the last two years.
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, he's so he's so someone, especially if they trade like the most contraris has been in trade talks are right not out, etc.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if they end up moving one of the or two of these guys, they could see Jordan at the major level this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm so a little bit intrigued there, but yet Clifford.
[SPEAKER_00]: And even with the low averages for Clifford, the contact rates aren't terrible with Ryan Clifford.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they're not great, but they're like, you know, 73, 74, 75% in that range.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can live with that.
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll give him the other good power that he has that you mentioned, so yeah, definitely a couple guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to see what the Met's do here.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're kind of, look, they might not bring in anybody else, at least not any big names just because we're there at payrollize.
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
[SPEAKER_00]: If they don't, I think you can see Clifford and Benges and maybe even Jet Williams going to shot this year with the Metz, but yeah, definitely some guys to keep an eye out.
[SPEAKER_00]: So see, in draft and year, in your 50 round DC formats for sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, so get out of here with one last little segment here.
[SPEAKER_00]: Our favorite breakout first base prospect for 2026.
[SPEAKER_00]: And this can be anybody, whether it be a guy that you have back end top 10, they think to chip up into the elite tier, maybe more of an unknown guy we haven't even talked about yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: So who's your favorite first base breakout prospect for 2026?
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, it's definitely wasn't the great position for having like the breakout guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, you know, I would, I kind of think Victor Figaro, I guess I kind of gave that away like in my if I look at my top 20 or if we were to bracket this, I could do a couple of these if we were to look at the top 10 my favorite top 10 guy for a bigger breakout is park's harbor problem is is like everybody's like more in on park's harbor because of AFL but in the same token I kind of don't think he still is smashed enough radars for people.
[SPEAKER_02]: So he'd be like in my top 10 buy.
[SPEAKER_02]: In my bottom 11 to 20, I think that's Victor Figaro, as I said, still young enough.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's flying on under a lot of radars simply because he had only been at high A.
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think there is like, you know, there might be 60 plus home or like when we start to get like stat, not 60 home or but like a 60 grade type of power, that if we start to see like he's going to have 90th percentile EVs, if we were just, if we were to go outside of,
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, I think I still kind of want to buy on Pablo Guerrero with the Rangers a little bit.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's still kind of developing into like the the full prospect that he is and Jared Jones with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's another one of those big power guys.
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are probably my like late ones.
[SPEAKER_02]: Also, you could throw a Tony Blanco.
[SPEAKER_02]: Tony Blanco is probably going to be a first baseman.
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he's in a hit worth a crap, but the guy can hit it for 500 feet and hit it 120 miles an hour.
[SPEAKER_02]: But that would be kind of my little, my break down of some of those guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and a block was the one that, you know, when we were out there in the home run derby for the, for the, for the AFL, we're like, all right, you know, twenty one goes up pay attention because he was hitting some, onto the, uh, what they called out the facade or what was that fancy name?
[SPEAKER_02]: The call that, um, I mean, it was like the con court.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I know what you're saying.
[SPEAKER_02]: There was something like more particular that I'm not thinking of right now, but.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's one of those like I should we go in that section of seating behind us in a bubble.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's to use anyone that was really getting it up to that level.
[SPEAKER_00]: He had a few up there, but yeah, Blanco, I mean, he's really really fun, but yeah, can you make enough contact?
[SPEAKER_00]: But guys, maybe some of this power and all of baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: Then he had one that was like one, what do you hit the one that was other 120 out there?
[SPEAKER_02]: There's like one, I was like 123.
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it read.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like absolutely stupid.
[SPEAKER_02]: Ridiculous stupid number.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like video game.
[SPEAKER_02]: Like what are we talking about type of number?
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like John Carlos Stanton.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is not real type of number.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: for a kid that's like, what does he want to do 21 or something like that, or maybe 20, I remember, yeah, something like that, but just stupid for any age, you know, there's a matter of what you are.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's 20 and a half out of the way.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, yeah, so this is, that's a stupid note there.
[SPEAKER_00]: My guy, I mean, I can't imagine it's not a great position to pick some breakouts at, you know, but one guy that I'm at least pretty intrigued by and I'll stick right in on the the Boston system here.
[SPEAKER_00]: I like Joe Sway breets, so he had a really good year in the DSL.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was his second go around in the DSL and he struggled in his first go around 24 so.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that gets hold held against him a little bit, but you know, you walk more than these struck out, get on your 500 OBP.
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a 284 to a 497-606 slash line.
[SPEAKER_00]: Not not the biggest dude in the world, you know, he's like six six foot, six one, like about a buck 80, buck 90.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's a little bit bigger than his list weight, which is six foot 175.
[SPEAKER_00]: this off the other videos I've seen of him but you know guy that's you know as shown some decent raw power for his age a good approach you know we'll see where the context goes wind up it's hard to take much from the DSL but you use a guy that in deeper formats I like a good bit you know you talk about 400 to 500 prospects or more roster that's where he kind of comes in the play there but red socks off
[SPEAKER_00]: obviously they've done really well developing and they have a lot of those nice old breakout guys over the last few years and just Gonzalez another one that I like a bit but he's not at first place with any more but he had chosen a pre-toe as one like a good bit here you know looking up I like Park Harbor as well I don't know if he can break out further but he's one I'd definitely like a good bit here
[SPEAKER_00]: And Blake Burke, he saw a little bit of this Milwaukee guys again, and he's one of that is a good value buy just because he doesn't have that one breakout tool or one stand out tool I should say, but I like break Blake Brooks at the idea, so when I could jump up another 50 75 spots in my overall rankings, but yeah, not a lot of guys that I'm like looking at in like my
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, 250 to 400 plus reins where I'm like, oh, yeah, that's a guy that I'm going to be targeting, you know, put a big X on their back, but I think Brito is a guy for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe even like a Jonathan Rangel, we just kind of a catcher first base type, another Milwaukee guy, but I think he's a good, another good, a deep one.
[SPEAKER_00]: And Cole Mathists, you know, I was going to shout out to Cole Mathists, I think he could be got it jumps up rankings a bit this year too.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's going to wrap us up.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, thanks so much.
[SPEAKER_00]: Always, you know, I mean, that you've been on this show 18 times for a reason.
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, love talking with you.
[SPEAKER_00]: I love seeing you every year out in Arizona.
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, you wanted the hardest working best dudes in the industry.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, what are you going on over now that you want to pull before we get out of here?
[SPEAKER_02]: I appreciate your brother.
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, same as I've always got going on, you can check me out over on Patreon and this league.com.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's where my Prospect one stuff lives.
[SPEAKER_02]: I got the Prospect one podcast, new episode coming up here on Monday and then coming back in after Christmas, where we'll be getting into some rank episodes.
[SPEAKER_02]: I actually got my friend of mine, I don't know if you met him, but Troy Collins of people haven't seen him.
[SPEAKER_02]: You've definitely seen him, he's a million followers on Instagram,
[SPEAKER_02]: Covering prospects.
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh yeah, it's like unheard of.
[SPEAKER_02]: Troy's on the show with me So you can check out Prospect one check out my Patreon.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's for my top 500 prospects top 400 dynasty Which have been updated this month live my Prospect 80 peas can support check out all this stuff You guys if you're listening to Eric you're familiar with patreon and then I work for fantasy pros So you can check out any of my face fantasy baseball coverage whether it's prospects dynasty or redraft over on fantasy pros go to youtube.com slash fantasy pros mlb
[SPEAKER_02]: you can check out all the latest videos.
[SPEAKER_00]: Great stuff as always.
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I mean, one of the hardest working guys in the industry across all of those ways that he just mentioned.
[SPEAKER_00]: So check out everything, well, just to offer, he's one of the highest guys I will recommend.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll set up my stuff in this industry.
[SPEAKER_00]: So thanks again to all of us for joining me for this first based prospect rankings episode.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll I'll be back later this week with first based dynasty with another great guess on it for that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But until then, everyone take