WEBVTT 00:04.891 --> 00:14.184 [SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues. 00:14.204 --> 00:23.858 [SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion. 00:24.379 --> 00:27.844 [SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross. 00:29.157 --> 00:30.118 [SPEAKER_00]: What's up, everyone? 00:30.199 --> 00:33.944 [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the Toolshade podcast brought to you by Rotalballer. 00:34.385 --> 00:35.206 [SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 425. 00:35.847 --> 00:36.709 [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me. 00:37.209 --> 00:38.251 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Eric Cross. 00:38.752 --> 00:40.955 [SPEAKER_01]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB. 00:41.236 --> 00:43.259 [SPEAKER_01]: And the show is at Toolshade Pod. 00:43.980 --> 00:45.002 [SPEAKER_01]: Apologies for the delay. 00:45.302 --> 00:46.484 [SPEAKER_01]: And I'm some of you saw the tweet. 00:46.504 --> 00:52.293 [SPEAKER_01]: I put out yesterday on Thursday night that I recorded this episode on Thursday night. 00:52.874 --> 00:57.561 [SPEAKER_01]: But as I was editing it to get it scheduled to post Friday morning, 00:57.541 --> 01:00.484 [SPEAKER_01]: There was just not good audio quality. 01:01.205 --> 01:02.967 [SPEAKER_01]: It was very choppy in areas. 01:03.147 --> 01:07.432 [SPEAKER_01]: It was just 20, 25 second gaps in other areas. 01:07.572 --> 01:13.638 [SPEAKER_01]: So it was to the point where I couldn't even slice and dice it and added it to make it sound good just with all those chunks missing. 01:13.699 --> 01:15.941 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm not a big tech guy. 01:16.361 --> 01:20.866 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, my tech experience, basically extends to editing this podcast each week. 01:21.427 --> 01:22.468 [SPEAKER_01]: So, 01:22.448 --> 01:27.736 [SPEAKER_01]: couldn't make it good, and I don't want to put out a sub par quality podcast. 01:28.637 --> 01:30.580 [SPEAKER_01]: So I wanted to do it over again. 01:30.740 --> 01:31.541 [SPEAKER_01]: So I'm doing this again. 01:31.601 --> 01:35.847 [SPEAKER_01]: It's about 430 p.m. Eastern time here on the east coast. 01:36.228 --> 01:37.149 [SPEAKER_01]: It's already dark out. 01:37.229 --> 01:38.010 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't like this. 01:38.531 --> 01:42.156 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know who thought of dealing saving time way back in the day 100 years ago, but it's not good. 01:42.456 --> 01:43.097 [SPEAKER_01]: You need to get rid of it. 01:43.318 --> 01:44.980 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm tired of it being dark this early, but. 01:45.449 --> 02:00.842 [SPEAKER_01]: You can still talk baseball, and that's what I'm obviously going to do here, going over some hitter buys and sells right now after going through pitcher buys and sells the last episode, miss that good, check that out, that was episode 424 similar. 02:00.822 --> 02:04.609 [SPEAKER_01]: kind of format in this one, three cells, six buys. 02:04.809 --> 02:06.432 [SPEAKER_01]: I got a good mix of players here. 02:06.893 --> 02:11.462 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, some anfield or some outfielders, some young guys, some a little bit older veterans. 02:11.902 --> 02:17.633 [SPEAKER_01]: And so I feel like it's, it's a good mix of players here, but before I get into these guys, the usual housekeeping. 02:18.389 --> 02:24.583 [SPEAKER_01]: You can find all the mic content either on Rotabauer or over on my Patreon, which is toolshedfansy.com. 02:25.205 --> 02:28.332 [SPEAKER_01]: Make sure you check out all of the great content over on Rotabauer. 02:28.612 --> 02:37.613 [SPEAKER_01]: With Rotabauer's premium past gain access to expert tools and advice from proven winners, including team sync, line up assistant tools, free engine finder, prop picks. 02:37.593 --> 02:40.060 [SPEAKER_01]: and the number one DFS lineup optimizer. 02:40.642 --> 02:43.530 [SPEAKER_01]: Our premium pass comes with a 100% money back guarantee. 02:43.991 --> 02:51.231 [SPEAKER_01]: Just go to rotable.com slash radio and use the discount code toolshed to get 10% off at checkout. 02:52.291 --> 03:17.016 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, we'll start with the three cells here and let me preface this by saying that I don't necessarily think any of these three cells are bad players, you know, they're not none of them are, but you know, I believe their either their perceived value is higher than I think it should be right now or that their perceived values of drop in the next year or two or both combination of both, but 03:17.333 --> 03:19.595 [SPEAKER_01]: First guy is Riley Green. 03:20.036 --> 03:21.777 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's coming off a career year. 03:21.837 --> 03:44.640 [SPEAKER_01]: He had hinted at, you know, this type of season in his first few seasons, but never really fully put together for a full, you know, 150 plus game season that obviously came in 2025 in 655, played appearances, Green slash 258, 313, 493, 03:44.620 --> 03:51.448 [SPEAKER_01]: with 84 runs, 155 hits, 31 doubles, 36 home runs, and 111 RBI. 03:52.469 --> 03:58.436 [SPEAKER_01]: Those were all career best marks, especially home runs in RBI's by a good margin. 03:59.156 --> 04:02.800 [SPEAKER_01]: But he also had a career high 201 strikeouts. 04:03.902 --> 04:05.764 [SPEAKER_01]: There's the issue I have with green. 04:06.445 --> 04:09.548 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he makes plenty of hard contact. 04:09.646 --> 04:38.337 [SPEAKER_01]: Now that has never been an issue, heart hit rate has been right in that 45 to 47% range in each of his four seasons in the majors, bear all rate at least 9% every year, at least 11% in the last three seasons, at least 13% in each of the last two seasons and the career best 17.1% in 2025, average EV has been about 89 and a half to 91 and a half miles per hour. 04:38.772 --> 04:54.777 [SPEAKER_01]: above average quality of contact from Riley Green, and also, you know, solid, bad at ball angles from him as well, 59.2% air rate, 40.8% pull rate, and an 18.6% pull air rate. 04:54.797 --> 05:00.325 [SPEAKER_01]: So I do believe he can continue being an annual threat for 30 home runs. 05:00.305 --> 05:24.642 [SPEAKER_01]: But the contact skills and really that the strike out rate are pretty concerning right now green after being in that 26 to 28% range in each of his first three seasons jump to a 30.7% 05:24.740 --> 05:33.192 [SPEAKER_01]: overall contact drop from 73.2% to 69.1 and it was a lot more aggressive as well. 05:33.553 --> 05:53.582 [SPEAKER_01]: Now that that and that's the real big factor here is that green chase more and swung more in general chase rate jump from 23 to 31% first pitch swing rate jump from 30% to 41% overall swing rate jump from 44.3% to 52.6%. 05:53.562 --> 06:05.903 [SPEAKER_01]: So just a lot more aggression from Riley Green, and yeah, you got the more home runs, but you had a sacrifice, you know, some of the, you know, the on-base dropped a good bit. 06:05.924 --> 06:10.151 [SPEAKER_01]: The average only went down four points, but I do wonder if this trend continues. 06:10.191 --> 06:13.697 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, the average dropped down, you know, below 250. 06:14.403 --> 06:19.110 [SPEAKER_01]: I still think he could be a 250, 30 guy, you know, driving in a decent amount of runs. 06:19.230 --> 06:25.779 [SPEAKER_01]: He'd be 80 plus runs as well, not Royce, a speed guy, so only a steel here and there. 06:25.919 --> 06:31.106 [SPEAKER_01]: But 250, 30 hundred still a good player, still a top 100 player, no doubt. 06:31.887 --> 06:39.999 [SPEAKER_01]: But I just feel the perceived value is more in like that 30 to 40 range, which I've been guilty of breaking him in that range as well in the past. 06:40.119 --> 06:42.402 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I've dropped him down a little bit recently. 06:42.382 --> 06:45.666 [SPEAKER_01]: I think he's more like a top 50 to 60 guy moving forward. 06:46.207 --> 06:54.177 [SPEAKER_01]: So if you can get a top 30 to 40 player in return for a Riley Green, I think that's something I would absolutely consider doing. 06:54.657 --> 07:04.950 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think it's good to give some context here, like maybe some names I would trade, Riley Green for, if you look in this range of my rankings where I think his perceived value is. 07:05.551 --> 07:11.899 [SPEAKER_01]: Like if you can get white Langford, because people are kind of a little bit off of him or maybe 07:11.879 --> 07:13.302 [SPEAKER_01]: I would absolutely do that. 07:13.984 --> 07:21.682 [SPEAKER_01]: I think, you know, I think Zack Neto, and someone you might be able to get for him like a CJ Abrams, even like a peak row arm strong. 07:22.183 --> 07:25.009 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, guys like that, I think are good trade targets. 07:25.029 --> 07:30.883 [SPEAKER_01]: And if you want to go like on the pitching side, you can probably get, you know, a back end ace like that second half. 07:31.150 --> 08:00.043 [SPEAKER_01]: of the ace range like you know SP 7 to 12 or something like that you know guys like Logan Gilbert you know Yuri Perez I think would be a decent look there you know probably not hundred brown or Christopher Sanchez or anyone like that or even Neama Motto you know but maybe you can get one of the young guys like a you know Chase Burns Spencer Schwalmbock maybe 08:00.378 --> 08:23.382 [SPEAKER_01]: Rather green is my first cell going over to the white socks with colesum gummery as my second cell, you know, he had a huge, huge, huge rookie season once he was up and he didn't come up until mid season, but once he did, he tried his best to make up for lost time. 08:23.362 --> 08:43.108 [SPEAKER_01]: 284 plate appearances 239 311 529 slash line 21 home runs you know just phenomenal rookie season from him really half of a season and probably could have made a you know a better run at finishing in the top maybe two or three 08:43.088 --> 09:01.536 [SPEAKER_01]: and rookie of the year obviously no one was going to take down curds, but if my grammar was up for the full season, another few months, could you have gotten into just being a finalist, maybe knocking out Wilson or Anthony, maybe those guys had good seasons as well, but I think he would have at least been in that discussion. 09:01.516 --> 09:06.124 [SPEAKER_01]: But moving forward, I do have some concerns with Montgomery. 09:06.144 --> 09:10.291 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's a good, not great power bat. 09:10.311 --> 09:16.842 [SPEAKER_01]: And he's got a transition into that power over hit guy after being, you know, a pretty good contact guy. 09:17.243 --> 09:19.387 [SPEAKER_01]: the lower levels of the miners after he was drafted. 09:19.427 --> 09:27.020 [SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, I also say he's not a terrible contact guy, but I do believe, you know, he is below average moving forward. 09:27.621 --> 09:30.165 [SPEAKER_01]: Zone was 80% which is not better whatsoever. 09:30.225 --> 09:40.062 [SPEAKER_01]: Overall was 68.5% that is six and a half percent below league average chased rate, little high at 30 and a half percent, but not terrible. 09:40.835 --> 09:43.378 [SPEAKER_01]: but the quality of contact was pretty good. 09:43.398 --> 09:53.231 [SPEAKER_01]: Especially the barrel rate, 14 and a half percent barrel rate, 89 and a half mile an hour average EV, 44 and a half percent hard hit rate, badtable angles for nominal. 09:53.952 --> 10:01.362 [SPEAKER_01]: Really maximize that power, 63 and a half percent air rate, 40 and a half percent, pull rate, 27.2 percent pull air rate. 10:01.382 --> 10:05.728 [SPEAKER_01]: Those are all well above League Outer Project for reference. 10:05.708 --> 10:19.129 [SPEAKER_01]: average pull rate 37.5% average pull air rate 16.7% average air rate 55.8% so he's a good like 8 to you know 11% above on each of those three metrics. 10:19.790 --> 10:23.896 [SPEAKER_01]: So I do believe he could still be a 30 home run guy moving forward. 10:23.916 --> 10:34.332 [SPEAKER_01]: So that's still value right there, but since he brings nothing to the 10:34.801 --> 10:36.163 [SPEAKER_01]: know, he needs the bad to be there. 10:36.203 --> 10:37.345 [SPEAKER_01]: I think the power will be there. 10:37.365 --> 10:40.789 [SPEAKER_01]: I just don't know if he's ever more than a 240 hitter. 10:41.210 --> 10:43.493 [SPEAKER_01]: We just got chill in that 23240 range. 10:44.034 --> 10:47.339 [SPEAKER_01]: He had a 29.2% strikeout rate. 10:47.779 --> 10:50.543 [SPEAKER_01]: This was some of the issues that I have with him in the minor leagues as well. 10:51.084 --> 10:56.792 [SPEAKER_01]: Which was a reason why I was never super high on Montgomery and lower the most on him. 10:57.380 --> 11:09.863 [SPEAKER_01]: So if you can get a close to a top 100 value, which I think is where his perceived value is, not top 100, but top like 125 to 150, I think this where his perceived value is, I'm not quite there on him. 11:11.245 --> 11:13.870 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, solid bets, especially in the power department. 11:13.850 --> 11:16.897 [SPEAKER_01]: But I believe the perceived value is higher than where I'm at. 11:16.997 --> 11:19.001 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think you can get a decent return. 11:19.021 --> 11:24.112 [SPEAKER_01]: I may even get close to a top 100 dynasty player back for a close among Gummering. 11:24.874 --> 11:26.677 [SPEAKER_01]: Last one here for the cells. 11:26.718 --> 11:29.764 [SPEAKER_01]: This is probably the one that raises the most eyebrows. 11:30.425 --> 11:31.167 [SPEAKER_01]: And I get it. 11:31.923 --> 11:44.183 [SPEAKER_01]: when you have these elite got, you know, veteran guys, it's hard to say, hey, sell them when they've been so good for so long, but I think this is the time to start thinking about selling Corey Seeger. 11:44.945 --> 11:49.572 [SPEAKER_01]: Pound for pound, Corey Seeger is still one of the best hitters on the entire planet. 11:49.632 --> 11:57.205 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think anybody doubts that, but he's also a guy that cannot really stay on the field 11:57.337 --> 12:05.179 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, he played over 150 games three times, not she made two times, over 100 and 34 times. 12:05.861 --> 12:10.013 [SPEAKER_01]: And has not reached 130 games void in each of the last three seasons. 12:10.212 --> 12:14.639 [SPEAKER_01]: After playing 151 games in 2022, it's first year with Texas. 12:15.360 --> 12:18.925 [SPEAKER_01]: He dropped down to 119, 123 and 102 in the last three seasons. 12:18.945 --> 12:29.021 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, still hitting for a lot of power, quality of contact, remains elite 15 percent. 12:29.101 --> 12:32.426 [SPEAKER_01]: They all rate each of the last three seasons, average EV, 92 to 93 miles an hour. 12:32.987 --> 12:36.152 [SPEAKER_01]: Each of the last three seasons, hard hit rate above 50 percent. 12:36.233 --> 12:38.856 [SPEAKER_01]: all, all having a key rate below 20%. 12:39.718 --> 12:43.603 [SPEAKER_01]: And even had a career best 13% block rate last season. 12:43.723 --> 12:46.427 [SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, when you look at the profile, it's still a lot of good. 12:46.987 --> 12:50.172 [SPEAKER_01]: Though the contact metrics did tick down this year. 12:50.592 --> 12:53.095 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, he was in that 85, 86% in zone range. 12:53.176 --> 12:56.680 [SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, 74, 76% overall. 12:57.061 --> 13:00.686 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, he's down to about 72% overall in 82% in zone. 13:00.826 --> 13:05.532 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, those aren't bad. 13:05.512 --> 13:07.274 [SPEAKER_01]: It's nothing to really be concerned about there. 13:07.875 --> 13:18.987 [SPEAKER_01]: But the main reason why I have Seeger here, and as a sell, is the fact that he is 31, going to be 32, and has those durability concerns. 13:19.327 --> 13:24.052 [SPEAKER_01]: And those don't usually get better for athletes as they get further into their 30s. 13:24.312 --> 13:26.395 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's really unlikely. 13:27.015 --> 13:33.983 [SPEAKER_01]: And risky to think that Seeger all of a sudden, when he gets into age 32, 33, 34, 13:33.963 --> 13:38.814 [SPEAKER_01]: that he just could magically become more durable and be a 150 plus game per year guy. 13:39.616 --> 13:44.147 [SPEAKER_01]: So, I guess we'll point for these guys and I, you know, we all do it. 13:44.207 --> 13:49.018 [SPEAKER_01]: We all are a guilty of it of kind of holding on for too long, especially these elite guys. 13:49.167 --> 14:07.894 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, like there's a lot of guys kind of getting that range now, Bryce Harper straight Turner, those types that are in that 32-ish year old range or they're still, you know, on the short term, they're still elite and they still have value, plenty of value, especially two teams that are winning, you know, contending now. 14:08.474 --> 14:15.985 [SPEAKER_01]: So if you're listening to this and you're rostring, seeger, and also think, you know, 14:16.673 --> 14:18.335 [SPEAKER_01]: And it doesn't make sense for you to trade Seeker. 14:19.015 --> 14:28.805 [SPEAKER_01]: But if you're like, well, maybe I can contend or more on, maybe 2027's more my year, then maybe you should look to see what you can get for Seeker's. 14:28.825 --> 14:37.434 [SPEAKER_01]: I think you can still get a pretty good price tag or return for him is the price tag is probably still going to be very high because the name, the production, everything. 14:37.895 --> 14:39.156 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think just explore it. 14:39.316 --> 14:42.580 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not saying, oh, get Seeker off your team and all cost. 14:42.960 --> 14:43.801 [SPEAKER_01]: No, that'd be foolish. 14:43.821 --> 14:44.942 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, to say, 14:44.922 --> 14:48.826 [SPEAKER_01]: But at the same time, I think it's absolutely at least kick it, we're kicking this hires. 14:50.248 --> 15:04.583 [SPEAKER_01]: Most every league out there has some sort of chat system, whether it's like Facebook Messenger, or within the actual leak platform, or email, text group, messages, whatever it is, just me like, hey, you know, Seger's available. 15:05.023 --> 15:06.304 [SPEAKER_01]: Throne on the block to see what happens. 15:06.324 --> 15:11.790 [SPEAKER_01]: I think you might be able to surprise how good the returns are, or the offers are, I should say. 15:11.770 --> 15:17.933 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, so those are my three cells, Riley Green, Colson Montgomery, and Cory Seeger. 15:18.689 --> 15:44.393 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, now let's go over to my six buys here and I'm going to start with a guy that if there was a Spotify wrapped for, you know, fantasy baseball analyst like myself on people we that we talk about players that we talk about the most on Twitter or an articles or on the podcast, this guy is probably in my top five and maybe even number one as I have really 15:44.373 --> 15:54.228 [SPEAKER_01]: been just so high on the sky ever since I saw him live in AA and as a Red Sox fan, it pains me how much I like this guy because he's a Yankee, but I guess start with Ben Rice. 15:54.849 --> 15:56.551 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's a trendy name right now. 15:56.992 --> 16:02.280 [SPEAKER_01]: So it's not going to be easy to get a Ben Rice, but I think it's worth the investment. 16:02.902 --> 16:19.706 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, in the old saying, buy high because, you know, whatever the price tag is are now, I don't think it's got to go up in the next year, especially with him getting, you know, it sounds like he's I get more reps against lefties this year, this upcoming year, you know, more time at first base with Goldish Mint gone. 16:20.267 --> 16:30.782 [SPEAKER_01]: So, a lot of good positives that are pointing his value in the right direction on top of having a really, really dim, fine look in Sevant page. 16:31.032 --> 16:53.580 [SPEAKER_01]: lot of red on this savant page, you know, overall in 530 plate appearances last year, rice slash 255 337 499 had 74 run scored 26 home runs 65 RBI 3 steals 50 walks to 100 strikeouts also at 28 doubles. 16:53.898 --> 16:54.499 [SPEAKER_01]: as well. 16:55.581 --> 16:59.327 [SPEAKER_01]: But really, even though those are all good, the surface stats are good. 16:59.387 --> 17:03.154 [SPEAKER_01]: The underlying data is great. 17:03.895 --> 17:10.506 [SPEAKER_01]: Starting with quality of contact, 15.4% barrel rate 93.3 mile in our average exit velocity. 17:10.486 --> 17:26.505 [SPEAKER_01]: and a 56% hard hit rates, XBA of 290, X-Lug of 550, so both of those, you know, a good 40 to 50 points above his surface stats, and then it just keeps getting, you know, it doesn't end there. 17:26.565 --> 17:28.768 [SPEAKER_01]: There's so much good in this profile right now. 17:29.348 --> 17:30.409 [SPEAKER_01]: Approach, good. 17:30.430 --> 17:37.658 [SPEAKER_01]: 9.4% walk rate, 18.9% strike out rate, 21.2% chase rate. 17:37.790 --> 17:41.073 [SPEAKER_01]: All three of those are better than the average contact. 17:41.333 --> 17:46.218 [SPEAKER_01]: Same story, 86% zone, 78.8% overall. 17:46.819 --> 17:55.367 [SPEAKER_01]: So he's above average contact, above average approach, it leaps power and good bad at ball angles as well. 17:55.387 --> 18:01.093 [SPEAKER_01]: 60% air rate, 44 and 1.5% pole rate, 25.2% pole air rate. 18:01.933 --> 18:06.598 [SPEAKER_01]: And as the lefty hitter at Niankis adium, pulling the ball in the air, 18:07.169 --> 18:07.790 [SPEAKER_01]: is pretty good. 18:08.390 --> 18:09.492 [SPEAKER_01]: Usually turns out well for you. 18:10.112 --> 18:18.182 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I've seen plenty of home runs that snuck out in the right field in Castadium that probably shouldn't have, but, you know, race is not one of those guys. 18:18.382 --> 18:19.764 [SPEAKER_01]: He's got big boy power. 18:19.884 --> 18:30.457 [SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't hit cheapos, but it helps when, you know, right field wall is like 314, 315 whenever it is, you know, a customer to like, write he's at Fenway, write he's in Houston. 18:30.837 --> 18:35.843 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's just one of those ball parcs and 18:35.823 --> 18:44.652 [SPEAKER_01]: Here we kind of help a hitter and rice doesn't need it, but that's great to have good home ball park for a guy like Ben Rice. 18:45.313 --> 18:52.820 [SPEAKER_01]: And now that he's in a better spot to play every single day, hopefully he still plays enough catcher to qualify. 18:53.461 --> 18:55.543 [SPEAKER_01]: But even if he doesn't, I love the bat. 18:55.583 --> 19:03.771 [SPEAKER_01]: As just the first basement, he's still only 26 years old and there's really no 19:03.751 --> 19:10.039 [SPEAKER_01]: and all those rice naysayers, oh, we hit 208 against lefties. 19:10.940 --> 19:11.701 [SPEAKER_01]: What year is it? 19:12.161 --> 19:13.142 [SPEAKER_01]: It's 2025. 19:13.202 --> 19:16.326 [SPEAKER_01]: We don't just analyze players off average alone. 19:16.386 --> 19:19.049 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that was outdated, like 15 to 20 years ago. 19:19.490 --> 19:22.153 [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, he hit 208 against lefties. 19:22.173 --> 19:28.020 [SPEAKER_01]: He also had a 2021 babbit against lefties, which is about 80 points 19:29.148 --> 19:30.369 [SPEAKER_01]: and potato set further. 19:30.470 --> 19:31.711 [SPEAKER_01]: It's not this all he was unlucky. 19:31.791 --> 19:35.936 [SPEAKER_01]: He was, but the metrics were very good against lefties. 19:36.537 --> 19:37.919 [SPEAKER_01]: Contact was around average. 19:37.939 --> 19:43.285 [SPEAKER_01]: 82 and 1% zone contact, 72 and 1% overall contact against lefties. 19:44.046 --> 19:45.728 [SPEAKER_01]: Still hitting them all very hard against them. 19:45.748 --> 19:52.236 [SPEAKER_01]: 92.4 mile an hour average EV, 54.7% hard hit rate, 16% barrel rate, 19:52.216 --> 19:57.550 [SPEAKER_01]: had seven home runs and 14 extra bass hits and 119 played appearances against them. 19:57.570 --> 20:03.947 [SPEAKER_01]: 481 slug 273 ISO104 WRC plus, which is above average. 20:04.636 --> 20:12.405 [SPEAKER_01]: He can hit lefties just fine, you know, the help of his bat that wasn't so freaking low, but Ben Rice is a huge, huge buy for me. 20:12.765 --> 20:18.512 [SPEAKER_01]: I think he's that a very, very good year could be a top 50 player heading into 2027. 20:19.333 --> 20:20.975 [SPEAKER_01]: I fully believe that. 20:21.015 --> 20:24.939 [SPEAKER_01]: So I'm breaking the cool aid and I'm slamming through that demo all like the cool aid man. 20:25.139 --> 20:28.483 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh yeah, oh yeah, I'm in on Ben Rice, you better believe it. 20:28.463 --> 20:40.678 [SPEAKER_01]: next guy here another first base guy south steward with these Cincinnati Reds steward to guy that always was a little underrated as a prospect. 20:40.698 --> 20:58.200 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean he still was ranked you know as a top 100 guy but never really was talked about as much as he probably should have been because didn't have that profile that wowed you but definitely has the quality of contact that 20:58.248 --> 21:09.008 [SPEAKER_01]: In his time in the majors last year, it was only 55 plate appearances, but 17.5% barrel rate, 95.4 mile an hour average. 21:09.068 --> 21:20.188 [SPEAKER_01]: Exit velocity, 52 and a half percent heart hit rate in AAA, more of the same, 21% barrel rate, 93 mile an hour average EV, 51.3% heart hit rate. 21:21.130 --> 21:23.573 [SPEAKER_01]: And the contact skills are pretty solid as well. 21:23.613 --> 21:33.807 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they did tick down in the majors from where he usually is, but he was still 82% zone and around 76% overall contact rate. 21:34.328 --> 21:38.594 [SPEAKER_01]: And the walk rate did tick down, care it did tick up, he was around 26% careate. 21:39.115 --> 21:40.316 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not concerned by that. 21:40.877 --> 21:48.808 [SPEAKER_01]: I think Stewart, even in the neutral park, could be a 26270 guy in Greater American ballpark. 21:48.788 --> 21:52.235 [SPEAKER_01]: That's famous for giving a little bit of that babbit boost. 21:52.956 --> 21:56.343 [SPEAKER_01]: I think you can see a 280 guy with 25 to 30 on runs. 21:57.626 --> 21:59.810 [SPEAKER_01]: And even maybe throw a little few steals. 22:00.411 --> 22:06.664 [SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy that can run a little bit too, not fast by any means, but he's always showing the willingness to run a little bit. 22:06.704 --> 22:08.147 [SPEAKER_01]: He's a smart player. 22:08.296 --> 22:11.081 [SPEAKER_01]: know, so I think he'll give you like five to eight steals as well. 22:11.883 --> 22:15.049 [SPEAKER_01]: So I like the profile of South Stewart a lot. 22:15.590 --> 22:25.109 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's probably going to start primarily at first base for the reds, you know, they bring in and keep Ryan Hayes to play some third. 22:25.209 --> 22:28.836 [SPEAKER_01]: I do think Hayes will still, I mean, excuse me, that's Stuart. 22:28.816 --> 22:33.363 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll still play some third, but I do think first base will be the primary home. 22:33.824 --> 22:37.028 [SPEAKER_01]: I may be guessing there's some nice dual eligibility there first and third. 22:38.330 --> 22:50.148 [SPEAKER_01]: I like steward a lot and I am all over the price tag right now because I think he's going to be a top 100 player by the end of 2026 and I don't think he's getting value. 22:50.249 --> 22:52.512 [SPEAKER_01]: Anywhere's close to that right now. 22:54.483 --> 23:00.451 [SPEAKER_01]: Next up, we'll go to the American League Central here for a second basement, Luke Kieshal. 23:01.553 --> 23:23.663 [SPEAKER_01]: Came up for 207 played appearances last season, 302-382-445 slash line, fore home runs, 14 steals, had a bunch of doubles as well, 14 of those in just 49 games, scored 25 runs, drove in 28, 19 walks to 29 strikeouts. 23:23.643 --> 23:36.642 [SPEAKER_01]: a ton of power here, you know, it's a different profile, then we've talked about with rice and with a sour steward, but Kishal I think can still give you like 12 to 15 home runs a year. 23:36.662 --> 23:50.241 [SPEAKER_01]: I think that'll cut me as range at the low to mid teens and if he's there, given the rest of the profile, that's still going to be good enough to make him probably one of the top second baseman for fantasy in the game. 23:50.221 --> 23:57.511 [SPEAKER_01]: Because Kishul can steal bags, he's a plus or better runner who's always shown a high willingness to run. 23:57.551 --> 24:07.445 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, 14 steals in just 207 plate appearances in the majors was running wild in the minors as well. 24:07.605 --> 24:08.927 [SPEAKER_01]: So this is not like a new thing. 24:08.967 --> 24:12.432 [SPEAKER_01]: He's always been aggressive on the base paths. 24:12.412 --> 24:14.995 [SPEAKER_01]: And it helps that he can saw him base a lot. 24:15.255 --> 24:22.103 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, between the approach and the contact skills, Kiesus is going to be one of the better OBP options in the game. 24:22.363 --> 24:24.565 [SPEAKER_01]: He had a 380 to OBP as a rookie. 24:25.066 --> 24:30.812 [SPEAKER_01]: That's really Tim good for anybody, especially a rookie 9.2% strike L rate. 24:30.872 --> 24:33.896 [SPEAKER_01]: So he's been 9.2% walk rate, 14% K rate. 24:33.916 --> 24:36.198 [SPEAKER_01]: Both of those are very good metrics. 24:36.218 --> 24:37.980 [SPEAKER_01]: And contact skills. 24:37.960 --> 24:45.912 [SPEAKER_01]: We're above average right away, 86.7% zone, 81.5% overall, only Chase at a 20% clip there. 24:46.773 --> 24:50.218 [SPEAKER_01]: He puts the bat on the ball and gets on based on a high clip. 24:50.238 --> 24:57.589 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think you're looking at, I got that's hitting 275 plus with a 360 plus OBP. 24:57.569 --> 25:04.159 [SPEAKER_01]: Again, 12 to 16 home runs or so, good amount of runs, I think it's going to be a high run scored guy. 25:04.199 --> 25:09.366 [SPEAKER_01]: That could still go, you know, 12 to 15 home runs and 30 plus deals. 25:09.967 --> 25:22.366 [SPEAKER_01]: I think that's the player we're looking at here with Kishul and given the all around production right there, plus the fact that this second base position just isn't great right now. 25:22.426 --> 25:24.589 [SPEAKER_01]: It's rolling on the downswing. 25:24.569 --> 25:36.919 [SPEAKER_01]: So if you get that type of production from Luke Kieshal, I think that puts him top five at this position, maybe even top two or three, and you look at even the top of this second base position. 25:36.979 --> 25:42.493 [SPEAKER_01]: There are question marks literally about every player can tell marked. 25:43.182 --> 25:46.368 [SPEAKER_01]: He's getting older, he's great, but he's getting older, he's above 30 now. 25:47.049 --> 25:57.107 [SPEAKER_01]: Jazz is phenomenal, but inconsistent, you know, and then what happened to Ozzy LBs can all jacks to holiday, be up there, and that tier 1 tier 2. 25:57.847 --> 26:04.896 [SPEAKER_01]: But that's not really a lot of guys where you're like, oh yeah, this guy is going to be a tier one option at the second-day spot for the foreseeable future. 26:05.517 --> 26:07.179 [SPEAKER_01]: I think Luke Kicheal could be one of those guys. 26:07.520 --> 26:19.095 [SPEAKER_01]: So if we're doing articles and rankings and pods next off season, talking about second-based position and we're talking about Kicheal is like the number two guy went surprisingly one bit. 26:19.075 --> 26:22.199 [SPEAKER_01]: Pretty high in the profile positions not that great. 26:22.579 --> 26:29.788 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think you're going to see Kishal rise into tier one at second base and maybe be a top 50 caliber player moving forward. 26:29.808 --> 26:38.960 [SPEAKER_01]: I think that's the upside we're talking about here with Luke Kishal three more buys here We're going with white Langford as one. 26:39.080 --> 26:44.387 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously you guys know I love love white Langford In my opinion on him has not changed one bit. 26:44.947 --> 26:48.812 [SPEAKER_01]: I still think he's a top 25 guy moving forward 26:49.062 --> 26:50.364 [SPEAKER_01]: still a lot of good in the profile. 26:51.025 --> 26:55.834 [SPEAKER_01]: Sure, the overall production, you know, he didn't take a big step forward. 26:56.435 --> 27:00.702 [SPEAKER_01]: Kind of was similar production from him in the second year, as opposed to his first year. 27:01.343 --> 27:06.412 [SPEAKER_01]: But hey, if, you know, a 22, 22 season is a down season for Lancford. 27:06.993 --> 27:10.699 [SPEAKER_01]: Stay with what he can do in a good season and up season, so to speak. 27:10.679 --> 27:22.954 [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, 22 on runs, 22 steals, and 573 play appearances last year, scored 73 runs, drove in, 62, 241, 344, 431 slash line. 27:23.114 --> 27:32.265 [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, that slash line is not not bad, but again, underwhelming compared to expectations entering the season with a still a lot of good in the profile. 27:33.089 --> 27:55.958 [SPEAKER_01]: Body contact was really good 14% barrel rate 91.5 mile an hour average exit velocity and a 48.5% heart hit rate was still walking at a good clip push the walk rate from 9.2% up to 12.9% bad at ball angles are good 65% air rate 43% pull rate 24% pull air rate 27:56.090 --> 28:05.961 [SPEAKER_01]: That's good, and zone contact rate was exactly the same, 83.2% this year, and last year, and we afraid did go up. 28:06.061 --> 28:11.427 [SPEAKER_01]: Like overall contact went down about two and a half, a three percent, but similar chase rate. 28:11.827 --> 28:13.749 [SPEAKER_01]: So there's really no glaring red flags. 28:13.889 --> 28:24.561 [SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, again, we've went up a little bit, overall catered, we went up a little bit, neither are in concerning levels right now, but the way I guess the biggest, 28:24.541 --> 28:37.690 [SPEAKER_01]: For Langford is the home ballpark, low-life after being neutral, or even maybe even a little hitter friendly back in the day, as really turn into a pitcher, friendly parer, especially for right-handed hitters. 28:38.311 --> 28:43.299 [SPEAKER_01]: That's a problem for Langford, but I think he still has the power to be a 30 home run guy. 28:43.339 --> 28:46.624 [SPEAKER_01]: He's, you know, above average, that's something short. 28:46.664 --> 28:47.425 [SPEAKER_01]: He's better than above. 28:47.445 --> 28:50.810 [SPEAKER_01]: He's a plus runner, 88th percentile sprint speed last year. 28:50.870 --> 28:56.319 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think you could still see a 30 plus 25 plus season from Langford. 28:56.339 --> 28:59.043 [SPEAKER_01]: I think the average is going to bounce back up 26270. 28:59.103 --> 29:02.428 [SPEAKER_01]: So I still think this is the top 25 player. 29:02.408 --> 29:11.016 [SPEAKER_01]: So if you can get him for more like a top 40 to 50 price tag again, if I had rather green and I could trade him for a light lane for it, I absolutely would do so. 29:11.797 --> 29:16.422 [SPEAKER_01]: I think this is the last year you can get lane for for a price tag that's not in the top 25. 29:17.783 --> 29:31.116 [SPEAKER_01]: Next up here, going to my red socks with willier a bra you who knows if he saw on the red socks when opening day comes around there's been a lot of trade rumours around him and Iran more so to rain, but one surprise me if a bra you a ship that either but 29:31.298 --> 29:43.502 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, wherever he does go, I mean, I love to keep him in Boston, you know, good power bat, goal of plover, you know, a lot of good, you know, positive metrics in the profile and, you know, obviously, Fenway is a good hitterspark. 29:43.988 --> 29:45.770 [SPEAKER_01]: But I think this is a guy that's a good target. 29:45.810 --> 29:50.195 [SPEAKER_01]: Regardless of where he does end up in the 2025, you missed some time again. 29:50.295 --> 29:52.797 [SPEAKER_01]: He's yet to be over 450 plate appearances. 29:53.598 --> 30:02.427 [SPEAKER_01]: But in his 417 plate appearances last year, 22 home runs at six deals 247, 317, 469 slash line. 30:02.908 --> 30:07.853 [SPEAKER_01]: So that slash on overall, very similar to his 2024 rookie season. 30:07.833 --> 30:30.988 [SPEAKER_01]: You didn't see the hard hit rate go down a bit, but still 45% pretty good, 98.8 mile an hour average EV that's barely down from the previous season and the barrel rate actually went up 11.1 to 12.3% so still overall in above average power guy and if he put a full year he was on pace for probably 32, 33 home runs. 30:31.694 --> 30:47.610 [SPEAKER_01]: But what really has me encouraged is the, you know, the gain is he made in approach and contact drop the K rate from 28 to 24.2% increase the walk rate a little bit 8.9 to 9.6% 30:47.590 --> 30:54.721 [SPEAKER_01]: zone contact jump from 77 to near 84% overall contact 70 and a half percent up to 76%. 30:54.821 --> 31:00.010 [SPEAKER_01]: Use a little more aggressive, but it was made still making even more contact. 31:00.030 --> 31:00.851 [SPEAKER_01]: That's positive. 31:01.552 --> 31:08.603 [SPEAKER_01]: And when didn't really sacrifice power, you know, maybe a little bit of power sacrifice, but still a 30 home run guy. 31:08.903 --> 31:11.246 [SPEAKER_01]: with better contact skills, a better approach. 31:11.366 --> 31:12.987 [SPEAKER_01]: Good, bad, at ball angles as well. 31:13.488 --> 31:20.415 [SPEAKER_01]: He has an elite 25.7% pull air rate, 43.5% pull rate, 68.5% air rate. 31:21.156 --> 31:26.422 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think if you're gonna pull a year out of them, yet getting a full year is a little bit of a concern right now. 31:26.822 --> 31:27.743 [SPEAKER_01]: Can you see healthy? 31:28.304 --> 31:29.205 [SPEAKER_01]: Some question marks there. 31:29.705 --> 31:37.594 [SPEAKER_01]: But if you get a 600 lead appearances from William Brayow, I think a 3010 season is well within reach with like a 260 average. 31:37.844 --> 31:42.192 [SPEAKER_01]: So right now, I mean, I think the red F-80P is like 200 or something like that. 31:42.272 --> 31:43.694 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't have it in front of me. 31:43.714 --> 31:49.705 [SPEAKER_01]: But overall, like dinosaur, you know, perceived value, I think it's probably more like the 150 range. 31:50.145 --> 31:53.892 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think you can see what your braille become a top 100 guy this year. 31:54.333 --> 31:56.296 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's a good value target right now. 31:57.218 --> 31:58.099 [SPEAKER_01]: Last day, I'm on the list. 31:58.220 --> 32:00.223 [SPEAKER_01]: Probably the cheapest. 32:00.203 --> 32:01.546 [SPEAKER_01]: on the list. 32:01.566 --> 32:11.184 [SPEAKER_01]: Wasn't cheap a year ago, but after a, you know, I guess in the other way to put it, besides disastrous rookie season, Jack Kaggle owners now, very affordable. 32:11.925 --> 32:17.275 [SPEAKER_01]: I remember going into a 2025, like there was some Jack verse Kurt's mates. 32:17.896 --> 32:21.503 [SPEAKER_01]: I was always Kurt's, but I even thought it was close, even though I was team Kurt's. 32:21.989 --> 32:39.508 [SPEAKER_01]: Now, obviously, it is not even remotely closed after, you know, Kurt's one beast mode for five months, and Jack went, what's the opposite of beast mode least mode with the L, something like that, whatever, you know, maybe there's a saying out there, but yeah, he was the opposite of beast mode. 32:40.180 --> 32:51.775 [SPEAKER_01]: 232 played appearances, 157 average, 237, OBP, 295, slug, seven home runs, just did not work out at all. 32:51.855 --> 33:01.248 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I said, having a great bat speed and great arm strength metrics, there's a lot of blue on us of on-page, but there's a lot of terrible metrics, though. 33:01.268 --> 33:09.799 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he didn't stand out in the areas 33:10.437 --> 33:11.399 [SPEAKER_01]: And it's not contact. 33:11.879 --> 33:20.052 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, let's start there, you know, instead of his power, I was, you know, even though he didn't have the elite, god-y, quality of contact metrics that you think you'd have, there's a reason for that. 33:20.653 --> 33:25.962 [SPEAKER_01]: But it's not lack of contact because zone contact was 84.7% that's above average. 33:26.523 --> 33:31.551 [SPEAKER_01]: Overall was a little bit below average, but 73.2% not bad whatsoever. 33:31.615 --> 33:43.595 [SPEAKER_01]: You know, quality of contact, 12% better rate, 89.5 mile an hour average EV, 42.5% heart hit rates, only struck out 22.4% of the time, that's around the garage. 33:44.617 --> 33:51.548 [SPEAKER_01]: But the big issue with Jack is the huge, goddy chase rate. 33:52.304 --> 33:54.908 [SPEAKER_01]: He's always been very, very aggressive. 33:54.928 --> 34:02.839 [SPEAKER_01]: He had a 30 and a half percent chase rate, 39.7% first pitch swing rate, and a 51.3% overall swing rate. 34:02.919 --> 34:03.821 [SPEAKER_01]: So he's very aggressive. 34:03.861 --> 34:11.091 [SPEAKER_01]: He chased us outside the zone way too much, and that leads to a lot of peaks and valleys with any header. 34:12.032 --> 34:15.898 [SPEAKER_01]: And the valleys were way more prominent than the peaks. 34:15.878 --> 34:16.840 [SPEAKER_01]: for Jack Hackelion. 34:17.121 --> 34:22.393 [SPEAKER_01]: But again, there's still a lot of good berries above average contact, or average chew above average contact. 34:22.975 --> 34:32.858 [SPEAKER_01]: Still has elite, you know, power potential if you can be more patient, wait for those pictures to drive, you can see Jack do a lot of damage. 34:32.838 --> 34:38.928 [SPEAKER_01]: So at this point, given how low the price tag is, it's a low risk investment. 34:39.629 --> 34:43.996 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think you have to pay more than like a top 200 or so price tag and 90 CE for him. 34:44.917 --> 34:48.463 [SPEAKER_01]: And if it doesn't work out, you didn't really give up a lot. 34:48.503 --> 34:55.974 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't think you're going to lose sleep over what you give up for Jack Hadley on, but if it does work out, that's a really big ROI for you. 34:56.696 --> 34:59.520 [SPEAKER_01]: And I think you can still be like a 250 34:59.500 --> 35:03.085 [SPEAKER_01]: 30 guy and guy that's driving in Bobby with junior a lot. 35:03.305 --> 35:07.071 [SPEAKER_01]: So I think it's a good time to buy low on jet cackleone. 35:07.131 --> 35:07.972 [SPEAKER_01]: Won't cost you a lot. 35:08.513 --> 35:12.539 [SPEAKER_01]: Potentially could be a, you know, pay big dividends for your fantasy team. 35:13.120 --> 35:13.400 [SPEAKER_01]: All right. 35:13.520 --> 35:14.341 [SPEAKER_01]: That's going to wrap it up. 35:14.361 --> 35:21.171 [SPEAKER_01]: But just to recap before I get out of here, the three cells were Riley Green, close to Montgomery and Corey Seager. 35:21.712 --> 35:29.423 [SPEAKER_01]: These six buys, 35:29.808 --> 35:59.562 [SPEAKER_01]: The next episode for Toolshed, so 426 starts my 2026 dynasty and prospect ranking series that I'll go through, I think the end of January or even early part of February, always one of my favorite times of the year, kind of breakdown the rankings, a lot of fun guest lined up as well with some more that I'm working on, so I can't imagine more than a few of the episodes along that entire series being just me, so it'll be fun to get some different perspectives, 35:59.542 --> 36:00.724 [SPEAKER_01]: create some fun discussion. 36:00.744 --> 36:03.909 [SPEAKER_01]: It can be really fun to go through all these positions. 36:04.991 --> 36:17.730 [SPEAKER_01]: So make sure you kind of check back in, catch your pass, practice, drop on Monday, catch your dynasty later in the week on Friday and it'll be a Monday, generally Monday Friday for the most part for the next two months. 36:17.791 --> 36:20.655 [SPEAKER_01]: So going back to two episodes a week for the time being, 36:20.635 --> 36:22.280 [SPEAKER_01]: Got a fun line, stuff lined up. 36:22.500 --> 36:24.647 [SPEAKER_01]: But again, that will wrap up this episode. 36:24.687 --> 36:26.071 [SPEAKER_01]: Thanks everyone for tuning in. 36:26.492 --> 36:31.928 [SPEAKER_01]: Hope you all have a great weekend, and I will talk to you all next week, but until then, everyone take care.