[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues.
[SPEAKER_00]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: What's up everybody?
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome into another episode of the toolshed podcast brought to you by Rotobar.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is episode 423.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host Eric Cross.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB and the show is at toolshed pod.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hope everyone that celebrates had a great Thanksgiving.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm actually recording this Thanksgiving night.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just got home from seeing family and
[SPEAKER_01]: eating too much food, as I'm sure most of you did, almost into a podcast tonight, but didn't do one earlier in the week because I was feeling
[SPEAKER_01]: a bit under the weather had a cold and was kind of coughing a lot and didn't really sound the greatest, those of you know, listen to this podcast for a while and kind of know that my voice tends to go and sound, you know, 40 grade at best after having a cold and, you know, it takes a while for it to come back.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's kind of giving in a few days, but definitely wanted to get an episode out because I'm 99% sure I have never missed a week.
[SPEAKER_01]: on on this podcast since Chris click and I started it back in October of 2020.
[SPEAKER_01]: So one of the keep that street going.
[SPEAKER_01]: Plus there have been some fun little moves here to start the off season and then kind of start the hot stove season.
[SPEAKER_01]: So some trades already have a very big signing so far.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to at least come on and chat about that and got my
[SPEAKER_01]: annual dynasty and prospect ranking series coming up that starts in a few weeks middle of December I got something like 20 to 23 episodes where I'm going to be going through position by position dynasty and prospect rankings
[SPEAKER_01]: got a lot of guests lined up and been in a schedule and some guests here so should have a guest for like at least two thirds of those.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's gonna be a lot of fun.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not starting in a couple of weeks, but so you have some good sub talk about today with some flurry of moves here and over the last couple weeks.
[SPEAKER_01]: But before I get into all of that, the usual housekeeping.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you enjoy the podcast, please rate and review wherever you listen.
[SPEAKER_01]: Those definitely help out a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find all of my content either on Rotobal or over on my Patreon toolshirtvancet.com.
[SPEAKER_01]: Still pumping out a ton of content on both of those platforms.
[SPEAKER_01]: And make sure you check out all of the great content over on Rotobal.
[SPEAKER_01]: With the Lord of Allers Premium Pass, gain access to expert tools and advice from proven winners, including team sync, line up assistant tools, free agent, finder, prop picks, and the number one DFS lineup optimizer are premium pass, comes with a 100% moneyback guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you set up now using the code smash, you get 50% off plenty of great content over plenty of sports, not just baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's football basketball hockey, you name it, Lord of Allers Got it.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so it's hopped right into the moves here over the last, what we can have for so I think is when the first big one happened, which was Grayson Rodriguez being traded to the Los Angeles Angels for Taylor Ward, that was a pretty surprising move kind of.
[SPEAKER_01]: caught me off guard, happened late at night, happened close to midnight, I believe it was.
[SPEAKER_01]: So kind of it's like a weird and surprising move for the, you know, pitching, needy Baltimore Oreos to kind of give up on Grayson Rodriguez.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they got back to the word, so it's not a thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: got rid of them for nothing, but it's a really a headscratcher for Baltimore already had plenty of outfielders.
[SPEAKER_01]: You got to imagine either moves in the works here, but kind of my first thought, my initial just like reaction was, alright, what is wrong with Rodriguez?
[SPEAKER_01]: Are his medical
[SPEAKER_01]: healing and, you know, bouncing back from injury as hopes.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to speculate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, I'm not a doctor, but that was my first thought was like, all right, what's wrong here for them to be giving up on a good young talent in Grayson Rodriguez.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I'm still very high on Grayson Rodriguez.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I actually think he is probably one of the
[SPEAKER_01]: in all baseball right now for and for dinosaur leagues on the pitching side especially yeah he missed all of 2025 there's been a myriad of injuries here you know elbow shoulder lats and I had some some soreness in the elbow then a lat strain and then I believe it was about the elbow the brightment which I'm still not even fully sure that is I think this is some sort of cleanup so a lot of things going on with g-rout over the last couple of years
[SPEAKER_01]: So you got to wonder is he just injury prone at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's fair to at least, you know, ask that question at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: He missed all of 2025, but he was still pretty damn good in 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: 386 ERA, 124 whip, 26 and a half percent strikeout rate, 7.3 percent walker rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a 19.2 strikeout minus walker rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to rookie here, and it was fine, 435 ERA, 25% of straight go right there, 16.8% came on its walk rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So overall, you know, pretty solid start to his career and and still has plenty of upside long term.
[SPEAKER_01]: I am but not going to lie.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not the biggest fan of him going to the angels.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't trust the angels with really anything.
[SPEAKER_01]: I hate to say it in the angels hands out there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know if you people had her angels fans, but I just don't like how this angels team has kind of
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, gone about a lot of things and especially with player development and whatnot.
[SPEAKER_01]: So not sure, um, you know, overly keen on this landing spot, but still love the arm talent with Grace and Rodriguez.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you kind of showed it, you know, he showed it in 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is a really, really good change up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Only at a 161 betting average against on that change up, you know, fastball that averages 96 miles an hour in 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: was up to 97.4 in 2023 on average, you know, he's got a four pitch mix, which is down.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was six pitches in 2023, but he ditched the cutter and the sweeper.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the funny and most people were adding a sweeper.
[SPEAKER_01]: He got, he had one, then he got rid of it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's kind of back to the, you know, the old traditional foreseem change up curve ball slider mix.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he can miss bats with all those, really.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, didn't have one and pitch that had like a super high wiff rate, but, you know, he was getting strikeouts and all of those pitches, you know, still has good velocity, just needs to stay healthy.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the big thing with Rodriguez, you know, command is pretty solid, controls above average.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now he's he's 55 grade and both of those categories.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I still think there's maybe he's not going to be, you know, a frontline ace, but I still think there's a path to Rodriguez being like a top 25 top 30 picture for fantasy purposes.
[SPEAKER_01]: I really do a lead extension guy gets, you know, 30% with free in 2024 gets hitters the chase limits the walks fairly well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's still a lot of good here.
[SPEAKER_01]: obviously the red flag right now is the durability, but still only 26 years old and really strong frames.
[SPEAKER_01]: So hopefully he says everything's behind them.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, of course he's going to say that, but we'll see, kind of a big question mark right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see how he looks at spring training and maybe that'll definitely tell a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now it sounds like he should be ready for spring training.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm still a little leery on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see.
[SPEAKER_01]: But in general, still very high on Christian and Riga.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I was looking to buy a low right now because I really think the potential for sizable ROI here is pretty good.
[SPEAKER_01]: what he could potentially be and obviously maybe that won't happen, but for the price, I think it's not a big price tag right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the perceived value is pretty, you know, pretty diminished right now and I don't think it would take a lot to get him.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it's a great by low, low risk, you know, if it didn't work out, you didn't really give up a ton to get him.
[SPEAKER_01]: And if it does work out and he becomes what I still think he can become, then you had a great
[SPEAKER_01]: I definitely would look to be looking to buy a low on Rodriguez right now, Taylor Ward going
[SPEAKER_01]: two Baltimore, and again, got to wonder if more moves are on the horizon.
[SPEAKER_01]: And not just because, you know, they are already, we're already looking for pitching.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now it's like they're 3-2-5 as Dean Cramer, Tyler Wells and Kate Povitch, following Trevor Rogers and Cobb Rattish, got to wonder if they get more pitching in, but also the outfield is pretty crowded, you know, as of now, you know, projected, Taylor
[SPEAKER_01]: Colton Couser in center and Dylan Beaver's in right, but you also have Tyler O'Neill in the mix.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have Leo DeVarris in the mix.
[SPEAKER_01]: Jeremiah Jackson kind of rebounded ahead.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I decent shelving for that last year at a 117 WRC Plus.
[SPEAKER_01]: In a hundred and eighty three plate appearances for for the Orioles last year, so he's in the mix, so he can play a little bit in field as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you also still have has to hear stead chillin in a probably in AAA, but he's he's at least in the mix and Enrique Bradfield is getting close.
[SPEAKER_01]: So kind of have a bit of a log gem going on here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, but the one that I'm hoping this just doesn't mess up playing time for is dealing me versus I think everyone that knows me knows I'm a very big
[SPEAKER_01]: Dylan Beaver's guy and that's not going to stop now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I am very high in Beaver's.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've said, you know, that I think he's a great value.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I talked about him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to like super in depth again because I did on the rookie ADP and a preview or analysis, whatever you want to call it that I did last episode.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I won't go
[SPEAKER_01]: to see all around skill sets for fantasy is really exciting and he's not a stud any single area but you know he can proceed old bags, he's got sneaky power, I think he could be a 15 plus homer guy, maybe even 20 plus with 25 steals, you know, got like mixed plenty of contact gets on base.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why I mean I made the comment sometime middle last season.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you know, don't be surprised if Beaver's is a better fantasy asset than Samuel Balsayo.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, was when you add in the speed that Balsayo does not give you much of, yeah, I think when you look at the entire picture, I can make a strong argument that Beaver's is the more well rounded offensive player for fantasy.
[SPEAKER_01]: We shall see, but I'm hoping this is not make it so Beaver's is either in like a, you
[SPEAKER_01]: part time roll or back down to play.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know we've seen this happen a lot with these Baltimore guys.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm hoping that both beaver's ambicio can get regular run in 2026 as Baltimore kind of looks to get a still retool.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a good young core of hitting a couple good pitchers.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I just don't think Baltimore can be a decent team here.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're in the next half decade if they kind of work the roster the right way because they do have a lot of good young talent So I'm hoping be risk it's that shots You know, a guy that I'm, you know, lesser Optim, you know, not adds optimistic on I should say, at least in that Spalton where I'll feel I'll be be on before I get to Taylor Ward
[SPEAKER_01]: is Colton Couser.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was one of the top rookies in a pretty lackluster 2024 AL rookie of the year crop.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then last year just really fell off a cliff.
[SPEAKER_01]: Did I have 16 home runs and 14 steals and the 160 point appearances?
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, that's what like a, you know, 25, 20 or so pace over a full season.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's still good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Still hits the ball hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Couser,
[SPEAKER_01]: has always been a guy that hits the ball hard.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the case again last year, 14% barrel average EV around 91 miles an hour, 46% hard hit rates, but the the huge issue for him, and he was already below average contact guy, but those went even further south of the contact rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: 2024, he was right around 80% zone and just to hair under 70% overall,
[SPEAKER_01]: 2025, those are down to 76.4% in zone and 65.4% overall with a 35.6% strikeout rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the issue right there.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was already 30.7%, but then going up 35.7, you know, that is not good.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's a good filter, strong arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that will help keep him in the lineup.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, this got slashed 196, 269, 385 last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: can that defense keep him in the line up when he's hitting below the mind does align.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the question we got to ask right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not super high on cows are anymore.
[SPEAKER_01]: These context skills and the strike out rates very concerning.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm kind I'm not like out on cows are, but I'm probably lower than the vast majority of people on Colton cows are right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do wonder if he loses time and he's
[SPEAKER_01]: really, and then every day guy moving forward.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he struggles against with rites and lefties.
[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't like, oh, he just, you know, as a lefty, struggled with his lefties.
[SPEAKER_01]: He did, but he struggled with his righties, too.
[SPEAKER_01]: He only slashed 198, 276, 384 against rites and the slashed running against lefties was just below that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he actually had a higher slug.
[SPEAKER_01]: So really struggling against both rites and lefties, struggled in the contact.
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, he walks at a solid clip and he can, um, he's a good arm.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like those are the kind of the three things that he's good at.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, actually, you know, I kind of, I stay in corrected.
[SPEAKER_01]: The walk rates tick down to the point where he says he below average walk right now, uh, which is not really the Colton Couser.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been used to seeing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I was always a high walker guy in the
[SPEAKER_01]: last year 7.5, which is not terrible, but it is a tick below league average, which is around 8.4 percent.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm not really looking to invest in coal cows are here, and you know, Tyler on the own, obviously, he's just a guy you can't rely on as a healthy, so I was out of super deep leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not early, he just said at all, and Tyler on the only more, but Taylor Ward,
[SPEAKER_01]: At a, you know, really really good year last year, scored 86 runs, hit 36 home runs, drove in 103, all three of those are career high marks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Also had a career high 75 walks, and it was the best year of his career, really.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's been pretty good power source.
[SPEAKER_01]: 40 angels over the last four seasons.
[SPEAKER_01]: Three of those were above 23 home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: The only one he didn't have 23 plus home runs was 2023 and he had 14 in 97 games.
[SPEAKER_01]: So probably could have gone above.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, the average did dip the 228 last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can see that rebounding though because, you know, the quote is not he didn't trade off contact for more power.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the quality of contact was actually pretty dim somewhere to what it was in 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, barrel rate was up 0.7% average EV as you down 0.8 miles an hour, hard hit right up 0.3% like this basically very much online with the 2024 and he actually had more contact in 2025 then in 2024 continues to have a lower chase rate 20.7% 86.5% in zone 76.2% overall both of those are above average and up from 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, hits the ball at its solid angles, you know, a good air rate solid poll rate, good poll air rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: So really, a lot of positive here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's not a big bat speed guy, but still generates a good power.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it doesn't chase too much.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can draw walks 11.3% walk rate there.
[SPEAKER_01]: K rates kind of in around 25-ish percent of the last two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think maybe he gives back down from 36 home runs, but I still think you can see 25 plus dinners and I'm going to return to average above 250.
[SPEAKER_01]: The context skills are absolutely there in between his approach, his contact and his quality of contact,
[SPEAKER_01]: and decent bad at ball angles.
[SPEAKER_01]: I could easily see like a two 55, 260 season with 25, the 30 home runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: And another 90 plus RBI 80 plus runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't really give you much in the way of speed, but he's been giving you a four or six four steel.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a little something's something there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, words like a good like outfield three.
[SPEAKER_01]: or something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not a guy you want is one of your top two health filters, but hey, if you can get a 250 and 25 plus with some solid runs in our BI, you know, I'll think that's my outfield three.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not like super exciting long-term, he's 31 now, but I think you can see another few years of kind of what we've seen in the last couple of years from Taylor Ward.
[SPEAKER_01]: So going from the angels now to Baltimore, better to line up around him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's a decent move here for Taylor of Ward's value.
[SPEAKER_01]: at least.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot kind of going on with that tray kind of a fun trade to kick off the off season and it was followed up with a few other moves here over the last week or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Texas Rangers and the New York Metz made a fun trade sending Marcus Semyon from Texas
[SPEAKER_01]: Nimmo coming off it really is kind of quietly good year last year to that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think is getting talked about nearly enough.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's still a pretty darn good fantasy asset, but always seems to be undervalued for the most part every single year.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this is the second straight year with at least 23 home runs and 13 steals.
[SPEAKER_01]: He went 23, 15 back in 2024
[SPEAKER_01]: with 90 RBI 80 runs and then last year 25 home runs 92 RBI 13 steels and 81 runs.
[SPEAKER_01]: So four straight years of more than 80 runs and at least 25 doubles, three straight years of at least 23 home runs, back to back years over 90 RBI and back to back years over 12 of 13
[SPEAKER_01]: guy that's always been a solid OPP guy, but that has ticked down a bit the last couple years.
[SPEAKER_01]: But hey, I'll think the trade off because the OPP isn't terrible.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been right around 325 each of the last two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: But hey, if that gets us, you know, the additional, you know, kind of home runs he's been getting.
[SPEAKER_01]: He goes when running more.
[SPEAKER_01]: So look at the entire picture.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they're the fantasy value that he's bringing is better now than it was back when he was, you know, a 360 plus OBP guy because there wasn't a ton of power back in those days.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not really overly exciting, but, you know, now he's a guy that you can count on, you know, as you know, maybe he's been providing outfield to value, he's probably got you can get generally as you don't feel three and not a guy that really.
[SPEAKER_01]: Why was you with any area, but the power, again, sneaky good hit a career best 50.2% hard hit rate barrel rates been right around 9% each of the last three years and the average EV just a here under 92 miles an hour in each of the last three years as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Better ball angles not the greatest he's below not like terrible below but you know a couple percentage points below average and air rate pull rate and pull air rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also not going to a worse hitters park you know Texas has been favoring pictures more the last couple years so you get a wonder if that to the you know downgrade.
[SPEAKER_01]: him a little bit, but I don't think it'll be more than a minimal downgrade, you know, for the park.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Nemo, you know, and he's not like a massive home run guy anyway.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not like that's a huge part of his game.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, and if you look at, I don't go by expected home runs a ton, but last year, you had 25, you know, with the Met's 22, or
[SPEAKER_01]: and then Texas 18.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, yeah, it's probably a little bit of a downgrade, but again, if you're not going to just a few homeruns off of Nemostotal, you know, I don't think it's going to be a detriment to his value.
[SPEAKER_01]: If he's still doing everything else, and as long as he he keeps that average, you know, up in that 260 to 275 range, as opposed to that 224 average we saw,
[SPEAKER_01]: in 2024.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, context skills are above average, doesn't chase too much.
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of good in the profile of Nimmo that just doesn't get talked about nearly enough because he's not, he's not like a sexy Savont page guy outside of, you know, a higher heart hit rate and average TV.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of his metrics are actually kind of middle the road in terms of the sliders.
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I like demo a good bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's a good outfield three type on a win-out dynasty team.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now he's going, he's a leading off for Texas, right in front of probably Langford hit in second and Corey Seeger hit in third.
[SPEAKER_01]: Assuming Seeger, you know, stays healthy and Langford takes that next step.
[SPEAKER_01]: That can be a really, really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: 1 through 3 and in the whole lineups pretty solid, especially that top third of the order could be really, really good in 2026, but going over to the met side of things now.
[SPEAKER_01]: be very good semi in slots in second base and you know I think they're going to be looking to kind of make some additional moves here you know the mats have been kind of in the news here a lot will lose the rumour mill a lot you know looking to trade like guys like Jeff McNeil they got a bunch of guys like you know where it's running where we see a fit in where it's loose out Hellakonia
[SPEAKER_01]: fit in, but you know, I want to look more so at the outfield now because that's kind of in flux outside of that, you know, one soda guy who's going to find out when the year and has right field lockdown, you know, center and left, especially if they trade McKinney and what's
[SPEAKER_01]: Looks like there's a better chance, McNeil is gone, then still here, so that could open up another outfield spot, Taron Taylor and Senator Field, he's not holding anything down, he's not keeping any of the young guys down, so
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm really excited to see, you know, a few outfielders may be going to chance, but the primarily and the two I'm looking at here, you know, would be Carson Bench and Jet Williams.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Williams has played the middle in the field and outfield.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see where he kind of winds up, but you can see him playing the middle in the field.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can see Bench out there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bench might even win
[SPEAKER_01]: a spot out of camp and then you get AJ Uing as well who has a little of intrigue.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, a lot of kind of fun names could be getting a look early in the season here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And like Dylan Beaver's, I am a big Carson Benge guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I have him right now as a top 25 prospect overall.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think many people have him that high.
[SPEAKER_01]: I know someone else who does kind of like, you know, my my co
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, co-capped in or a co-driver of the Bench hype train is that back from the density.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is a big Carson Bench guy, but outside of that, I don't think people were really putting Bench top 25 a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's top 100 for everybody now, but, you know, I've been a big fan of Bench and one of those guys I can just do.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well across the board 13% Walker rate 17.7% K rate last year slash 281 385 472 15 homerunns 22 steals had 25 doubles as well You know contact rate just above 80% So you can strike rate around 8% You know this is a guy that's above average contact above average approach
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, solid average to above average power and above average speed as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this kind of does a bit of everything.
[SPEAKER_01]: We 23, you know, in a couple months.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's Benj time out of all the names I mentioned as possible, health field options.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's the one
[SPEAKER_01]: And he meant me guy that has dualigibility, badges is outfield only.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Jet Williams could be some combination of second short outfield.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see, he has sneaky power too, probably like a random average power guy, despite his smaller frame.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he is a plus runner, takes a lot of walks.
[SPEAKER_01]: and OBP of $363 last year, $358 in 2024, and that was despite only hitting $250, though he missed a lot of time in 2024, so it was a small sample size, but that was back nicely last year, $261, $363, $465, $17 home runs, $34, $13, $33 and walk right $22.9 per second k-right, so I think
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, Ben's might be more like a, you know, upper teens to low 20 to home run guy like around 2020 ish and they Williams is more like a 15 home or 25 plus steel guy, both have plenty of value moving forward or potential value.
[SPEAKER_01]: for fancy purposes, but I do like Bench a bit more, but definitely two guys to keep an eye on the see kind of how this outfit situation shakes out, you know, I think now with with Marcus Semi and in the mix though obviously he's not a long-term option.
[SPEAKER_01]: For the mats, you have to figure it for right now, it's semi-in and lendor, kind of locking them in the middle of the field.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you could see more Williams in the outfield in 2026.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Williams and Bench definitely in the two.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm looking forward to seeing in 2026 get that shot with the mats.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we shall see how soon that happens.
[SPEAKER_01]: a more moves here over in the AL East, the red socks traded for right hand or sunny gray from the St. Louis Cardinals, gave up left handed picked in prospect branding Clark and right handed pitcher Richard fits those two guys go into St. Louis.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we'll start with sunny gray and
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I like Ray.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not like a huge gray guy, but you look at what he's done in the last couple of years.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, yeah, Ray, I think it's like right around four.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you can mind the last two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, 384 in 2024 and 428 in 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, the ERA indicators were lower, especially like the fifth and next fifth were decent amount lower.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he still has a really good strikeout minus walk rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he has the eighth best strikeout minus walk rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was looking at this the other day and I actually posted that the other day too.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was eighth best.
[SPEAKER_01]: combined over the last two years had a 24 and a half percent came on us walk rate in 2024, 21.7% last year had a 5% walk rate in a 26.7% strike out rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he's 36 now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
[SPEAKER_01]: if you're not contending right this second, like 2026, I'm a contender.
[SPEAKER_01]: If those thoughts are going through your mind, like if you don't think that you can make a legit run at a championship, a money place finish, whatever, in 2026, Sunny Gray means absolutely nothing to you as a 36-year-old, but I mean, like my memory phrase that he does, if you're going now, but if you're not, if you have those thoughts aren't in your head and you're not contending, he means nothing to you,
[SPEAKER_01]: Gray is a very enticing target because you can often get these guys for cheap because hey, they're 36 It's not it's not gonna be a lot of trade capital to get these guys and I think Gray to survive like top 40 SP value for fantasy purposes
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's so guy, while he doesn't throw hard, he's got a deep arsenal, maybe too deep.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, once you get past like five offerings, I'm kind of like, all right, enough enough.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, the sweeper and the curve ball are really, really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: And those are the two most used.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, secondary offerings, both had a way Fred above 33% last year, Shreeper was 42% and that's where, you know, a little bit over half of the strikeouts came on that sweeper, you know, had 111 out of 211 strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been over 200 strikeouts each of the last two seasons and over 165 innings and each of the last three seasons, including two of them,
[SPEAKER_01]: being above 180 handed.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's still a, again, top 30 to 40 picture and a great win now target for any contenting dynasty team.
[SPEAKER_01]: Go any other way, Richard fits or, you know, as he's actually known as dick fits.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy that's, you know, I had a, I had a,
[SPEAKER_01]: trip to New Hampshire to see Ricky Tiedeman a few years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is back when Fits was still with the Yankees.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this was 2020 to or 2023, one of those two years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So once I 2020 three, but I want to see Ricky Tiedeman and Fits was the opposing pitcher.
[SPEAKER_01]: Tiedeman kind of got knocked around a little bit, only lasted two or two thirds or whatever it was.
[SPEAKER_01]: But fits was really impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: I believe it was like six antings, one run, 10 or 11 caves and like one walks, like they don't even have a few hits.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's really, really impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's shown some impressive kind of stretches, you know, throughout the upper minors and in the majors.
[SPEAKER_01]: Ultimately, I feel like he's more like a back end arm, but I got it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Should get a chance to be in that St. Louis rotation, just simply because there's not a lot of other options.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he had, he might end up being the most valuable fantasy picture in St. Louis.
[SPEAKER_01]: At least in the rotation next year, the current projected five, Matthew Leigh
[SPEAKER_01]: Michael McGravy, Richard Fitz, and Kyle Lee.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not exciting whatsoever.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the highest ADP, or earlier's ADP, was Lee Bittor at like 430, something like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's not really, and a bunch to get excited about, but I think Fitz, again, could end up being the best one.
[SPEAKER_01]: Out of those guys, four seamers are on 95, 96,
[SPEAKER_01]: Slider in the upper 80s, curveball, sweeper, which he started really going to more prominently to get straight out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, that had a 39.6% away for a sinker to injure as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was when he experimentally used.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, deeper arsenal, you can miss bats, even though the key rate wasn't super high last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Give fits a shot.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not opposed to that deeper leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's not going to be a guy on your radar.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like 12 teamers right now, but you've deep benches deeper 15 plus team leagues.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I could take a flyer on fit, especially now that he's going to have likely again every fifth time through rotation spot and not have to be bouncing in and out that he was a Boston, this is really no other good nobody else to take his spot and sing low as so kind of like this move for for his value here in in 2020 six and beyond Brendan Clark on the other hand is a really intriguing.
[SPEAKER_01]: pitching prospects, 64 lefty, really strong frame, you know, big, fastball.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, this is a guy that was really breaking out in the early part of 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he was really the out of all the red socks breakout arms that we saw this past season.
[SPEAKER_01]: He was kind of like the first one, the really, you know, be buzzy.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, and then obviously totally and early in all of them kind of leapfrogged him because there was an injury with Clark and then he kind of fell off a bit as a season progress, but you know, there's plenty of upside here with a Brandon Clark.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think long term, he's going to get a chance to start down the road, you know, for the St. Louis team will see when that comes probably not going to be in 2026.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably more of a 2027 ETA guy, but I love the upside with him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's he's electric.
[SPEAKER_01]: He can.
[SPEAKER_01]: None of the the VLO is really high with him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's upper 90s at times, you know, sits at least mid 90s.
[SPEAKER_01]: With his fastball, he can miss bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: He gets kind of wild at times.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still kind of, you know, working on overall commands.
[SPEAKER_01]: and just location and pounding the zone, not turn a nibble too much.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of those things that come with getting more advanced in terms of being pitchability.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's still working on all of that, but he's got two good breaking balls, curve ball and a sweeper.
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, solid change up as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: He goes more to the curve ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: But he can miss bats.
[SPEAKER_01]: He can spin it.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has a decent feel.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, first change up, but there's a lot of just arm talent here, but he's still kind of putting everything together.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see, you know, I still a very unfinished product, you know, and he also, I believe he had taught me he's
[SPEAKER_01]: Back when he was in college, maybe a misremembering, but I'm pretty sure he did off the double check on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we'll see on him, but the other side is definitely there.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you can see him.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you can get back on track in 2026, he could turn into one of the 10 or 15 best pitching prospects in the game.
[SPEAKER_01]: The upside is absolutely there for that to happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: Lastly, Dylan C. signing seven year, 210 million dollar contract with the Toronto BlueJays.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is now.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it was already pretty solid rotation there in Toronto.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it's really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all righties.
[SPEAKER_01]: But when you have a rotation of Dylan C's Kevin Gosman,
[SPEAKER_01]: in the mix as well who pitch well for that last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, no lefties and really all their top bullpen arms for the most part are our righties as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But no lower is a lefty.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see if he gets some starts here.
[SPEAKER_01]: But obviously you need to have all these other guys stay healthy as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But for the most part, you know, obviously beabilist a lot of time.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the reo has been
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, that's where, you know, the undervalued part of C. I mean, people look at the strikeouts, you know, rightfully so.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been one of the best strikeout arms in baseball, you know, over his entire career, six straight, you know, sorry, five straight seasons of over two under strikeouts, but also five straight years of at least 32 stars.
[SPEAKER_01]: and over 160 innings.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's a guy that doesn't miss a lot of time and I know that doesn't mean as much now as it used to because we've seen even the safer guys that don't miss time, like sees, still in that missing time at some point, you know, saying the Alcontra,
[SPEAKER_01]: perfect example of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: So nobody is totally safe, but, you know, with cease, you know, he's one of these safer arms in terms of getting you, you know, starts, getting you to those 32, 33 starts, giving you 200 plus strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just you have no idea where the ratio is going to wind up.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, year after year, we just don't know.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, just look at those last few years, you know, the ERA, when this is going from 2025 back to 2021.
[SPEAKER_01]: So go those those last five years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So starting in 2025, 455, 347, 458, 220, 391.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's over a one full run, either way, swing every season.
[SPEAKER_01]: whip, 133, 107, 142, 111, 125.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, you just don't know what you're going to get in terms of you know, earray and whip out of a Dylan sees, but you know you're going to get start, you're going to get innings, you're going to get strikeouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I'm not on the Dylan C, this is an ace, you know, grouping.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not in the Dylan Cs is even a top 20 on him.
[SPEAKER_01]: I have a moral like a, you know, in the 25 range, but he's a guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: If I got him as my three, I feel good about that as my two.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, on the on the on the good season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's a good to even a near ace on the on the seasons, but he's also been a guy like you can't be a two in fantasy.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're ERA is above 4.5 has been two of the last three years with a high whip as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's just why I've never been a sea sky.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I, I, you know, I appreciate the the earnings the starts the case, but it's the uncertainty with the ratios.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just I'll let somebody else deal with that and I'll go out to where, but yeah, I mean, he's he's still a top 35, 30 35 arm for me and still only 29 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so he's he's still fairly young as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that will be in Toronto for, you know, the next, you know, good chunk of his career.
[SPEAKER_01]: Next seven years potentially, he says that for the entire contract.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Dylan C's going to Toronto to make a pretty good rotation there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, the
[SPEAKER_01]: One that hurts the most is probably Eric Lauer who was projected to be in the rotation and again I pitched a well last year for the blue jays 104 and two thursday names three 18 ERA nearly a k printing's now at this point he's probably in a long relief roll so he's the one that gets hurt a little bit here Then he said wonder like we're just recitative and fit into the picture when he's found the back so
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, a lot of fun moves here to start the off season, and I'm sure we'll get a flurry more, you know, we get winter meetings coming up soon, some sure we'll get a lot more big moves here, and hopefully my red socks continue to make some moves.
[SPEAKER_01]: Good start for the season for them getting any gray there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I love that move a lot for them.
[SPEAKER_01]: lot of pitching moves here in the in the alley so far, but that are up up this episode.
[SPEAKER_01]: I got a couple more episodes to go before that dynasty and prospect ranking series kicks off.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I have some of the fun ideas for the next few episodes and then we'll get right into ranking season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Fun time of year, dynasty never ends as you all know.
[SPEAKER_01]: Listen to this podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: The year-round thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we love it.
[SPEAKER_01]: We even in the middle of the member and on the Vember.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm recording on the night of Thanksgiving.
[SPEAKER_01]: Dynasty never ends, but hope everyone enjoyed the podcast wherever had a good holiday.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll be back with you again next week, but until then, everyone take care.