[SPEAKER_04]: Hello, everybody, JJ Cooper, Jeff Ponds, a slightly delayed baseball America prospect podcast this week.
[SPEAKER_04]: We're really sorry, but last night was busy.
[SPEAKER_04]: We had the 40-man roster protection deadline.
[SPEAKER_04]: We had to work up rule five preview version 1.0, which I don't even want to know what time you went to bed last night, Jeff.
[SPEAKER_04]: And then I was working on the Almanac, because that's also going on right now.
[SPEAKER_04]: And I don't want to even tell you how many hours I've been working on that over the last week and a half.
[SPEAKER_04]: And I was working on that.
[SPEAKER_04]: And then we got no word of a pretty massive trade by, uh, by really any standards with the Taylor Ward Grayson Rodriguez trade, which we will talk about here on the podcast, but we're good.
[SPEAKER_04]: We will get back to our fixed series, but the 40 man roster protection deadline was yesterday Tuesday where recordings on Wednesday.
[SPEAKER_04]: That also means that we have the names or we're starting to have the names for the real five draft coming up next month.
[SPEAKER_04]: So if all that Jeff, great to see you.
[SPEAKER_04]: We're just gonna jump right in.
[SPEAKER_04]: We are going to the stake.
[SPEAKER_04]: We're not having appetizers here.
[SPEAKER_04]: We got real five draft preview, version 1.0 up at Baseball America.
[SPEAKER_04]: We'll have 2.0 up probably earlier than we should because we both have the fever.
[SPEAKER_04]: But you really have the fever.
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm stuck at Almanac Hill right now.
[SPEAKER_04]: So I haven't had a chance to dive into as much as you have.
[SPEAKER_04]: Give us two names that jump out so far.
[SPEAKER_04]: There's more names.
[SPEAKER_04]: We already have, I think, 13 up at Baseball America.com.
[SPEAKER_04]: But two guys who really jump out, and I will remind you that Jeff wrote up Shane Smith,
[SPEAKER_04]: basically an hour after the deadline last preaction deadline last year.
[SPEAKER_04]: And hey, look who stood out from the rule five draft.
[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks a lot.
[SPEAKER_04]: Thanks.
[SPEAKER_03]: Former president.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think we've done that on the first day multiple times, because I'm pretty sure that I had written up that word no 1.0 and Ryan Nota who were like top two picks on that draft.
[SPEAKER_03]: And then the previous year, I think the first guy that I wrote up
[SPEAKER_03]: Slating who didn't go one, but was taken in the rule five traded and then had a phenomenal year a couple of years now with the Red Sox as a setup guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: So we've done pretty well with some of our initial calls.
[SPEAKER_04]: I would say that generally, the best guys who are taking in the Rule 5 draft, we get, I would say Liam Hicks is kind of a miss.
[SPEAKER_04]: We didn't have him.
[SPEAKER_04]: We knew about him.
[SPEAKER_04]: We didn't write him up.
[SPEAKER_04]: That's on us.
[SPEAKER_04]: But I would say that if you read, again, our goal every year, one of these years we're going to get, there's going to be a major league, not the minor league, but a major league, Rule 5 draft and the draft's going to end.
[SPEAKER_04]: And we're going to do a high five and say we wrote up every single player who was taking in the Rule 5 draft.
[SPEAKER_04]: Yes.
[SPEAKER_04]: It hadn't happened yet.
[SPEAKER_04]: the questions.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, a lot of them, but not all of them.
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, always want to do better every year, but this year I think is a year at JJ.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to say right off the bat.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think there is a slam dunk bull five selection right off the bat.
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's your donny.
[SPEAKER_03]: Monegro, right handed picture from the Red Sox, he fits into a bunch of different boxes that, in my opinion, all but guarantee that he gets taken in the role five.
[SPEAKER_03]: Number one, he had the best performance metrics of any player that was eligible for the role five this year, full stop.
[SPEAKER_03]: He was in the upper minors.
[SPEAKER_03]: which is always something that we need.
[SPEAKER_03]: There are very few guys who get taken in the rule five, even less guys who get taken in the rule five that then stick, which is always what our goal was.
[SPEAKER_03]: We want to identify the guys who are going to get taken and are going to stick.
[SPEAKER_03]: Even less of those guys have under 10 innings of AA experience.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's got way over that at this point.
[SPEAKER_03]: Had nine or eight or nine starts this year with AA Portland was really, really good.
[SPEAKER_03]: Good ground ball rate.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it was maybe 55% or they're about get swings and misses throws a lot of strikes, but here's the main reason that I think this guy is a lock to get taken.
[SPEAKER_03]: injured his elbow had Tommy John surgery in late August.
[SPEAKER_03]: He is a guarantee that he is not going to pitch in 2026.
[SPEAKER_03]: So you can take him on.
[SPEAKER_03]: You can then roster him.
[SPEAKER_03]: We saw this last year.
[SPEAKER_03]: The Blue Jays took another injured pitcher that the red sucked didn't protect.
[SPEAKER_03]: And in Angel, uh, Bastardo, he's a guy that might be ready to go this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: Could potentially stay with the Blue Jays and be part of that bullpen.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is another similar situation where you have the surgery so late that you may actually have some time in the 2027 season.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a kind of slow roll him out and then maybe by midseason have him up with the big league club.
[SPEAKER_03]: So they have sort of like a year and a half almost two sort of come up with a strategy to protect this guy slow roll and through his rehab and have him ready to go in 2027 win.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, he already was in the upper minors, had he stayed healthy.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think there's a chance this guy might have even pitched himself into Boston by the end of the season with the way that they were, you know, sort of promoting so many talented young pictures in their upper minors.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I think he checks a lot of boxes for me.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think he's like number one right now on my preference.
[SPEAKER_04]: And we've talked about we'll get into traits a little bit in a little while, but like he fits the the injury as a trait although I will say the challenge of him to take him I would say is you have to be a team that's your I would describe your 40 man roster as pretty open right if you have a tight 40 man roster the way the mechanics work on this and you buy it.
[SPEAKER_04]: this video podcast today, it's for the geeks, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: If you look at the weeds, we're going to go in the weeds, because we know that a lot of you want that.
[SPEAKER_04]: So we're going deep on this.
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, I've talked to for an office as about this.
[SPEAKER_04]: One of the challenges though, like I would say the picture perfect injured player is to draft the picture who's going to miss the start of the season, but is ticketed to return,
[SPEAKER_04]: in like me or June, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: So what that means is you don't have to worry about carrying on the roster or the full season, could you cannot option a major league rule five pick to the miners.
[SPEAKER_04]: You do that, you have to place them on the waivers, anyone else can claim them.
[SPEAKER_04]: Then if that goes through waivers, you have to offer them back to the original team.
[SPEAKER_04]: So can't do that.
[SPEAKER_04]: But at the same time players on the injured list, they're on the injured list.
[SPEAKER_04]: That's not a problem.
[SPEAKER_04]: But you have to have 90 days active on the Big League roster.
[SPEAKER_04]: So the ideal scenario is players not ready at the start of the season.
[SPEAKER_04]: You send them out on that month-long injury rehab stint, which by the way is additional minor league time, really.
[SPEAKER_04]: And you do that to get them ready.
[SPEAKER_04]: Then you carry them on the Big League roster for 95 days, let's say.
[SPEAKER_04]: And then the next year you have this actionable, talented young pitcher who is now just a part of your organization like anyone else.
[SPEAKER_04]: And he has options left.
[SPEAKER_04]: So if you want to use them as a reliever and he goes up and down and I'll all that's great.
[SPEAKER_04]: The challenge of the guy I like this is if you are going to miss the entirety of the 2026 season you're still going to need those 90 days in 2027, but you are going to now be carried on the 40 man roster during the season is not a problem you get to a date in spring training you put it on the 60 day I L he stays on the 60 day I L for the entirety of the season you can have that 40 man roster spot back.
[SPEAKER_04]: But during the off season, there is no 60 day IL.
[SPEAKER_04]: So you will carry that player on the 40-man roster for the entirety of the remainder of this off season.
[SPEAKER_04]: And then you will carry that player on the roster, 40-man roster for the entirety of next off season.
[SPEAKER_04]: So the one challenge that we have seen of these guys sometimes is, you like the guy, you bring him in,
[SPEAKER_04]: And then you kind of look at it eventually and say, you know, but we need the 40-minute roster spot.
[SPEAKER_04]: So I would say that a team picking him needs to be someone who's looking at it saying, like, we're at a spot where we're not going to be up to 40, we're going to always kind of have a couple of spots to play with.
[SPEAKER_04]: If you have that, that is a perfect example of a guy to take.
[SPEAKER_04]: I think that that's again, you hit on it, like,
[SPEAKER_04]: That's the guy who is getting taken as the other thing I would say.
[SPEAKER_04]: They're not always staying, but we saw multiple, we've seen multiple injured pictures.
[SPEAKER_04]: I would say the most significant one that has paid off in recent years.
[SPEAKER_04]: There are a couple that Garrett Whitlock would say would be the 2020's most successful version, which is guy coming off of TJ of an injury.
[SPEAKER_04]: And then boom, you bring him in, he's been a useful, even a lever and starter.
[SPEAKER_04]: You know, there are guys like that, but it is also, again, the challenge of the 40-man roster.
[SPEAKER_04]: The other thing that to kind of bring this back to kind of now explaining a little bit.
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[SPEAKER_04]: So yesterday as we record this was the 40-minute roster deadline.
[SPEAKER_04]: This we're going in the weeds, but we also don't want to leave anyone behind who wants to come along for the ride.
[SPEAKER_04]: So to explain, yesterday was the day that any player who signed as an 18-year-old or younger on
[SPEAKER_04]: June 5th of the signing year.
[SPEAKER_04]: That's our age date.
[SPEAKER_04]: Like if you were 18 on June 5th,
[SPEAKER_04]: or younger, you get five years, if you're signed in season, five seasons, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: So if you're signed after the season, the next season, you're free to see, but five seasons before you are real five eligible.
[SPEAKER_04]: If you are signed as a 19 year old, four seasons, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: So pretty much think of it this way.
[SPEAKER_04]: Almost all the non-cam call your version of junior college players, but all four
[SPEAKER_04]: International players who signed as 1617, even 18-year-olds, high school prospects who were not old for their age.
[SPEAKER_04]: Brett Bady will example the 19-year-old high-school pick, but most high-school players drafted five years.
[SPEAKER_04]: So what we meant is is that the 2021 high school class, 2022 college class,
[SPEAKER_04]: where classes where if you were not, again, that's a generalization and the 2021 international class.
[SPEAKER_04]: If you were a player from those classes, you are rule five eligible.
[SPEAKER_04]: If you were not added to the 40-man roster by yesterday, there is no, oh wait, we're our homeworks late.
[SPEAKER_04]: No, you have to have it in now.
[SPEAKER_04]: If not, then you are available for the major league portion of the rule five draft, which means that you are available
[SPEAKER_04]: to be picked by a team who then pays $100,000 pretty low amount in modern-day parlance.
[SPEAKER_04]: $100,000 to the team that you pick in front.
[SPEAKER_04]: You then have to carry that player on your majorly roster, as we just said, you can't opt them to the miners for the entirety of the 2020 six season.
[SPEAKER_04]: If you don't play spend 90 days on the active roster, it carries over until you hit that.
[SPEAKER_04]: There have been examples in the past of guys carrying that for multiple years before there were healthy enough to reach rule five steps.
[SPEAKER_04]: Once you hit that though, you are
[SPEAKER_04]: the you are now a member of that or new organization with no other restrictions.
[SPEAKER_04]: And then there is the minor league phase, which is for the true geeks, you're watching it two of them on this podcast.
[SPEAKER_04]: But the true geeks, because that is for players who not only same eligibility rules, but are not only not placed on the major league roster.
[SPEAKER_04]: But then are not placed on the AAA roster, which gives you, I believe, I'm going to have 37 or 38 players additionally that you can protect.
[SPEAKER_04]: So you are saying that you are then not one of the top 70
[SPEAKER_04]: nearly 80 players in an organization.
[SPEAKER_04]: That is generally more for players who are viewed as useful org players, but we do have some examples every few years of guys who kind of go from that and end up being productive big leaders, Omar Navaya's, Justin Bor, there have been some pictures in recent years.
[SPEAKER_04]: So there are examples of that of players who become big leaders.
[SPEAKER_04]: The key thing there, though, is is those players, you don't have to carry them on a AAA roster, anything like that.
[SPEAKER_04]: you just pay your, I think it's $24,000 again, top my head, but you pay your money to the organization you've selected from and then there you are as a part of your organization, no further restrictions is just like you basically, you just draft them off the roster and then there you are.
[SPEAKER_04]: That's my very long-winded explanation to then set you up Jeff to ask the other question, which is, we saw the 40-man roster protection deadline.
[SPEAKER_04]: We wrote up, I believe 80-some players yesterday,
[SPEAKER_04]: any surprises, anything that really stood out, any trends, anything that really jumped out to you from our roster deadline portion of this.
[SPEAKER_03]: Did you feel on, I'll pose a question back to you?
[SPEAKER_03]: Did you feel as if more players were protected this year that maybe wouldn't have been protected in previous years, particularly when I looked at pitchers.
[SPEAKER_03]: I felt like there were a lot of guys that I was like, oh, it was kind of fringy on whether that guy would get at it or not.
[SPEAKER_03]: It felt like all of those fringy guys were added more often than not.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't feel like there were any big surprises in terms of guys that were left off that I anticipated would have been added.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I would say that less surprises, but more surprises in the sense of like,
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not shocked that David Sandling got protected by the Red Sox.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not surprised that Shane Drowhand got protected by the Red Sox.
[SPEAKER_03]: Having already been taken in the rule five draft, another wrinkle here that I'll explain.
[SPEAKER_03]: Had he been left on protected this year, then selected again?
[SPEAKER_03]: all of those roster requirements that you typically have with a rule five pick, go away.
[SPEAKER_03]: Whatever team took him, if he had been unprotected, would have then sort of owned his rights or whatever you want to say that.
[SPEAKER_03]: So he was somebody that I'm not shocked they protected because he was good enough this year in AAA had already been returned to them.
[SPEAKER_03]: They had an open roster spot and gives them some upper miners pitching depth whether that's as a long guy out of the pen or a spot starter.
[SPEAKER_03]: I was a little surprised at Tyler Uberstein was protected considering he could have been
[SPEAKER_03]: I think a solid fill in or a bullpen piece or a September call up at the end of the year they didn't do that.
[SPEAKER_03]: They did end up protecting him, wrote a lot about his background, but beyond that he has some really interesting traits, a really flat foreseen fastball that drove a ton of whiffs and AAA had one of the highest foreseen fastball whiffs rates throughout the minors.
[SPEAKER_03]: And just, you know, an interesting kind of gritty kid you can go and check out the story that I did a couple months ago.
[SPEAKER_03]: on his journey to professional baseball, really inspiring stuff, but outside of that, I mean, I think just looking at my teams, I wasn't
[SPEAKER_03]: very surprised by anybody that got added, but some of the fringe guys and other organizations like a Calil Watson who we had some questions could they add them, could they not, he had a bounce back year this year.
[SPEAKER_03]: He was added, I don't know if you feel the same way, but there were a lot of those fringe guys where I felt almost universally they were added and there were a few more DFAs than I had remembered in previous years, maybe a couple less trades.
[SPEAKER_04]: I would agree with you.
[SPEAKER_04]: I think there's two things that we're seeing now.
[SPEAKER_04]: Like, I think the teams, I think at this point, we, group piece by Ian Kunderl over at Baseball America, we're gonna talk a little bit more about traits and all.
[SPEAKER_04]: I think everyone kind of has an idea now.
[SPEAKER_04]: More of kind of an agreement on what kind of players are logical to get picked.
[SPEAKER_04]: We're not gonna see anything like we saw, we used to see like, I mean, this was right when I started Baseball America.
[SPEAKER_04]: That was a year where,
[SPEAKER_04]: Everyone looked at the Pirates protections and was, and Furnoffs is around baseball, we're like, what are they doing?
[SPEAKER_04]: And it was like, and everyone was lining up to just take like Pirates players one after another after another at the top of the rule five draft.
[SPEAKER_04]: You're not gonna see something like that because again, I feel like now, even when teams lose players, they kind of, it's kind of,
[SPEAKER_04]: Again, we're dealing with probabilities, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: So someone will say, yes, we're going to lose this player.
[SPEAKER_04]: They may get picked, but they might get offered back.
[SPEAKER_04]: There's a 70% chance we're going to see them picked, where there's a 30% chance that are going to stick.
[SPEAKER_04]: And so they put them on the 40mins.
[SPEAKER_04]: They need the 40mins roster spot.
[SPEAKER_04]: Or I would say now, again, when you talk about this risk of version of having players pick, I think everyone realizes that optionable up and down relievers,
[SPEAKER_04]: valuable.
[SPEAKER_04]: And so players who a decade ago, you know, be like, look, he's an up and down reliever.
[SPEAKER_04]: We're projecting him to throw 35 innings in the majors for us next year.
[SPEAKER_04]: Leslie, if I'm protected, those players do not get our protected now.
[SPEAKER_04]: Almost without fail, the triple A, the guy who's going to be in your triple A bullpen to start the year.
[SPEAKER_04]: That guy, if he has options, is going to be protected because everyone now knows, those are the players that everyone in season is looking for everyone.
[SPEAKER_04]: You have your closers, you have your set, your high leverage relievers who everyone's like, it does not matter if a role does Chapman has options left or not.
[SPEAKER_04]: You're not optioning him, but everyone.
[SPEAKER_04]: Every team in Major League Baseball wants sub guys who are essentially the, they're the, the ponds on a chessboard right hey to say it, but that's really what it is it's like we're going to send this wave in now.
[SPEAKER_04]: But now that we've survived that brutal road trip that we had where we had multiple a double header and we're Gast okay you're going down and now we're bringing the next guys up.
[SPEAKER_04]: Those guys get protected now, and a decade or 15 years ago, a lot of times they weren't.
[SPEAKER_04]: And a lot of times, 10, 15 years ago, they weren't getting picked because the guys getting picked, which teams have got a lot of smarter about, were the able pictures who threw a hundred and had no idea what was going.
[SPEAKER_04]: And then that guy would show up to spring training.
[SPEAKER_04]: He hit the ball.
[SPEAKER_04]: He hit the back stop.
[SPEAKER_04]: He would never hit the strike zone and they get released.
[SPEAKER_04]: Those guys don't get tried, you know, drafted them.
[SPEAKER_04]: Those guys are like, nope, that sounds great.
[SPEAKER_04]: Julian Fernandez, who was straight, you know, he throws 102.
[SPEAKER_04]: Nope, that guy used to get picked.
[SPEAKER_04]: He doesn't get picked now.
[SPEAKER_04]: The guy who throws 93 to 95, but throws strikes and has a slider or has a splitter or has a cutter or some kind of pitch that will get you extension.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, I felt like the guys that we missed on over the last couple of years and it's become a greater point of emphasis for me is like, the guy has, you know, outlier extension, six, eight or greater.
[SPEAKER_03]: Those guys almost universally seem to at least be discussed by front offices.
[SPEAKER_04]: I would say when you say extension, six, eight or greater, I would even give a slight tweak to that.
[SPEAKER_04]: Take a pitcher's extension,
[SPEAKER_04]: subtract the height.
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, exactly.
[SPEAKER_04]: We just want to see six foot in seven pitcher and he has six eight extensions like no big deal.
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, if you take a five eleven pitcher with six eight extension, you're like, that guy's getting picked.
[SPEAKER_03]: I had two of them in the rule five volume one preview in hate and moments who's a six footer, he's shorter than me and I'm six feet though my kids will argue that.
[SPEAKER_03]: So he's not quite six feet measured it like six six extension on average on the fastball, Tyler Vogels and other six foot right hander that has about six five six six extension on the fastball.
[SPEAKER_03]: So they were guys that I honed in immediately on and there's others that are in my list of two
[SPEAKER_04]: So that's one thing.
[SPEAKER_04]: The other thing I would say they'll also is, we saw position players, lower ceiling position players who could get picked were protected.
[SPEAKER_04]: In cases where I would say in some cases like, okay, to give an example of a couple, Christian Franklin who the national protected.
[SPEAKER_04]: Christian Franklin has been written up on on on roll five draft previews before.
[SPEAKER_04]: But he's the him, huh?
[SPEAKER_03]: Said I wasn't wrong.
[SPEAKER_03]: He should have been.
[SPEAKER_04]: But he's the embodiment, though, of the guy, the outfiters on the AAA big league line, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: To be honest,
[SPEAKER_04]: If you take him, you are removing one of the pieces of value of Christian Franklin, which is those guys are most valuable if you can bring them up.
[SPEAKER_04]: They're again, they're part of the fire brigade as well.
[SPEAKER_04]: They sit in AAA, when you need them, you bring them up, when you don't need them, you send them down.
[SPEAKER_04]: You can't do that if you take him in the rule five draft, but this year, again, the dashals have added him to the 40, which means now he fits the more traditional where we just talked about, which is you can send him to AAA.
[SPEAKER_04]: He can spend the year in AAA and come up and down as you need him.
[SPEAKER_04]: Leo Balkazar, who the reds protected.
[SPEAKER_04]: That one was to me a little bit of kind of a guy on the borderline.
[SPEAKER_04]: He can play shortstop
[SPEAKER_04]: He's got double a time, so you could see him getting picked, but at the same time, he's not better at that role than a lot of Major League veterans.
[SPEAKER_04]: I would say, in 2020, six, he's not going to be better than that role than a lot of veterans who you can probably sign to minor league deals with an invite to string training, and see what you get.
[SPEAKER_04]: I say that teams now, though, look at it and say, I'm going to protect that guy,
[SPEAKER_04]: rather than get burned on this right because one of every now and then some of those guys do actually pop so um that to me was another one that kind of jumps out a little bit but like yes i would say that overall that the big thing about all of this is is teams are much more conservative about protecting us but they've also realized like what you
[SPEAKER_04]: another part of this, which is check out InCundals pieceover at baseballamerica.com of what gets you picked and what doesn't get you picked in the rule 5 draft.
[SPEAKER_04]: I hit on one of the things, but you've hit on a couple of others too.
[SPEAKER_04]: A-Ball guys generally now don't get picked and A-Ball guys who do get picked don't stick.
[SPEAKER_04]: There are exceptions to this, and by the way, if you look back over the years, like
[SPEAKER_04]: A ball guy like there are examples that you can point to, but now the picture with really good stuff, who's yet to pitch above high A.
[SPEAKER_04]: is less likely to get pitched picked in the guy who was in AAA or AA last year with less stuff, but more strikes, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: Like, that's one of the key traits to stand out.
[SPEAKER_04]: But the thing that I probably, that opened my eyes in it was, and it was going to be very reflected in our rule five preview this year.
[SPEAKER_04]: If we're doing our rule five preview right, 80 to 85% of the names that we put in there are going to be pictures, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: And that jumped out to me is how few position players get picked up.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, so few, and I think the guys that do get picked, it's not the offensive upside.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not the stuff that maybe gets them, you know, videos shared on social media channels and get some ranked in top 30 list or on prospect lists that are fantasy slanted, that sort of thing.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not those kind of guys.
[SPEAKER_03]: We saw, you know, a
[SPEAKER_03]: and get returned and really hasn't been able to establish himself as a big legal sense.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think more often than not, the position players that do get taken, they got to be plus defensive short stops or middle in fielders with versatility and the ability to play a variety of positions.
[SPEAKER_03]: Or they have to be guys that you can count on to catch maybe 30% of your games.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think Liam Hicks was a miss last year for us because we kind of didn't think about
[SPEAKER_03]: the value of, you know, catching defense and the ability to play multiple different positions at an average or so or fringe average level.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think those are the kind of guys position wise that get taken.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not going to be the offensive upside and it's a little bit harder for us.
[SPEAKER_03]: to identify those guys programmatically because so much of defensive evaluation is kind of opinion based.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, you'll talk to people and get a 70 on one guy's glove and get a 60 or a 55 on another.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I think just being able to sort of establish that stuff a little bit harder but those are the position guys that get taken, which is why you said 80 to 85% of the names we're going to put in there are probably going to be pictures.
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm looking back at our preview from last year.
[SPEAKER_04]: The other thing that stands out is that
[SPEAKER_04]: is how many guys get unprotected one year because they're not ready and then get protected the next.
[SPEAKER_04]: To just give you a couple of examples.
[SPEAKER_04]: So like, okay, Ryan Ward, who had a great year in Triple A for the Dodgers, protected this year, Abbey Ortiz, protected this year.
[SPEAKER_04]: We wrote him up last year, Christian Franklin, protected this year.
[SPEAKER_04]: We wrote him up last year.
[SPEAKER_04]: A read Trimble, protected this year.
[SPEAKER_04]: We wrote him up last year, Brian Torres, protected this year, wrote him up last year.
[SPEAKER_04]: Like, you could just go down the list.
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, that's not important.
[SPEAKER_04]: on the pitch.
[SPEAKER_04]: It was Riley Martin from the Cubs another one too.
[SPEAKER_04]: We lucky.
[SPEAKER_04]: Really Bart was on there.
[SPEAKER_04]: You know, Noah Murdock get other guys who by the way reached the majors this year and are on 40 man's because of that.
[SPEAKER_04]: Not just guys who were added at the deadline.
[SPEAKER_04]: Coleman Crow added this year.
[SPEAKER_04]: Like,
[SPEAKER_04]: It really does jump out, like, yeah, hey, okay, I will strain myself petting ourselves on the back, but we were identifying the talent.
[SPEAKER_04]: Some of the guys who didn't get picked are like guys who's like, okay, well, check back next year.
[SPEAKER_04]: That's one of the things that also stands out with this, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: Is these are guys who, again, everyone's kind of generally speaking, reading the same, you know,
[SPEAKER_04]: book, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: They have the same definitions of this.
[SPEAKER_04]: And so there's a little bit less.
[SPEAKER_04]: There used to be an art to this.
[SPEAKER_04]: It used to be something where I would talk to people with teams 10, 15, 20 years ago and realize like, oh, they're on such a different perspective.
[SPEAKER_04]: I remember telling a team that one of their players was going to get picked the next day.
[SPEAKER_04]: And they're like, he's not going to get picked.
[SPEAKER_04]: No one in this kind of category is picked.
[SPEAKER_04]: He's getting picked.
[SPEAKER_04]: He's going one, one next next day.
[SPEAKER_04]: And he did.
[SPEAKER_04]: He got picked the next day.
[SPEAKER_04]: Those kind of things back then happened.
[SPEAKER_04]: Now, when you do see a guy picked a lot of times, like, yeah, we knew that was a risk.
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, but we were willing to take it.
[SPEAKER_04]: The other thing that does stand out, though, and this is one of the other parts that I love about the Rule Five Draft, MLB teams love to put decisions, push decisions down the road.
[SPEAKER_04]: You know, they do.
[SPEAKER_04]: But when it comes to the rule five draft, that's the day that you have to kind of publicly proclaim, you can say everything you want about your first-round pick from four years ago or five years ago, about how he's really, he had some rough times early on, he had this injury or whatever.
[SPEAKER_04]: This is the day that you have to basically say, we actually believe that or we don't, because let us just be clear here.
[SPEAKER_04]: If you do not protect a first-round pick in the first year of rule five eligibility, it is a failed pick.
[SPEAKER_04]: And when we say this, I've studied this.
[SPEAKER_04]: I have every pick who was unprotected for 10 years on this now.
[SPEAKER_04]: And Colregans is an example of someone injuries, pandemic, all that.
[SPEAKER_04]: Colregans was hurt, unprotected, and has gone on to be a very
[SPEAKER_04]: They're in in the list of like two plus war players who are left unprotected, you know, there are not the bounce back candidates.
[SPEAKER_04]: It is something where if you were unprotected, it is almost without fail.
[SPEAKER_04]: There's like 65 of them.
[SPEAKER_04]: And
[SPEAKER_04]: The other best names are not close to a coal Reagan's level of production.
[SPEAKER_04]: But this year, there were 27 players, first year eligible.
[SPEAKER_04]: And 10 of them were left unprotected, which is the worst protection rate by far.
[SPEAKER_04]: On average, 80% full route of every five first runners get protected.
[SPEAKER_04]: And by said, get protected.
[SPEAKER_04]: Like Jackson Merrill is a protection decision this year.
[SPEAKER_04]: Padres didn't have to decide because he's been a productive player for him for them for multiple years.
[SPEAKER_04]: So I'm not saying like they were added to the 40 man yesterday in a lot of cases.
[SPEAKER_04]: In most successful cases, there are already productive big leaders by the time that their eligibility comes up.
[SPEAKER_04]: But it does really stand out.
[SPEAKER_04]: The other thing that really did jump out about it is his 10 first grounders left unprotected.
[SPEAKER_04]: But the other thing that really stands out about that is.
[SPEAKER_04]: We saw, and this is unusual.
[SPEAKER_04]: So Frank Mazakado and Betty McGamory were top 10 picks for 2021.
[SPEAKER_04]: And Jacob Barry and Gavin Cross were top 10 picks from 2022, high school guys of 2021, college guys for 2022, who were left on protected.
[SPEAKER_04]: There had only been seven top 10 picks left unprotected over the previous decade, and Kyler Murray's kind of only halfway counts because yes, he was left unprotected.
[SPEAKER_04]: He was playing quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals at the time.
[SPEAKER_04]: There was not much risk that they were going to lose him because he had never played a game of professional baseball.
[SPEAKER_02]: Can you get taken this year?
[SPEAKER_02]: There's been rumors he's coming back to baseball, so is there a chance he could get taken this year?
[SPEAKER_04]: He has probably works against him ever.
[SPEAKER_04]: But, you know, hey, it's Russell Wilson was taking the minor league phase multiple years in a row for this reason.
[SPEAKER_04]: Because he looks like you just bring him into spring training, he comes in, you know, whatever.
[SPEAKER_04]: But 10, and I think it also is worth noting, like the Royals had two top 10 picks, Mazikato and Gavin Gross.
[SPEAKER_04]: That is something that you just really want to avoid ever doing.
[SPEAKER_04]: They've had three now in the 20, because they also had a Silesi recently.
[SPEAKER_04]: So,
[SPEAKER_04]: The royals have bounced back, but they did, like, if you say, like, where do you kind of have your regrets, that's a regret, when you have three top 10 picks that you did not in that protecting their first year.
[SPEAKER_04]: The flip side of that, that I did want to point out, storyover at baseballamerican.com.
[SPEAKER_04]: But.
[SPEAKER_04]: The podries and the white socks have both had 11 top first drum picks over that time and have protected all 11.
[SPEAKER_04]: They've got a there's 19s that have protected 100% of their first drum picks, but they are the only ones who had that many first drum picks and protected them.
[SPEAKER_04]: So
[SPEAKER_04]: Before we move on to our Grayson Rodriguez trade analysis, the last thing I wanted to ask you is, is like, okay, you've kind of hit on this already somewhat, but is there any traits that we haven't hit on of guys?
[SPEAKER_04]: Like, if you want to do your own scouting on the rule five draft of what you want your team to take, are there any other aspects that people should look for that really do jump out?
[SPEAKER_03]: I think I had written an article on this a few years back and kind of updated that and dug in on some other areas, but I think like his article kind of illustrates it pretty well, which is there's a certain level of like baseline production in the upper miners that more often than not, we'll say 80% of the players pick particularly pitchers kind of fall into this category.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, it's walk rates under I think tech really under 10% but under 12% is kind of like that breaking point that anything over that you're kind of in the fringes of guys that have been taken in the rule five if you do have a walk rate that's higher than 12% you're probably have to have a strike out rate above 26% anybody that's been taken with a walk rate that high has had at least a strike out rate of 26% or higher.
[SPEAKER_03]: having both, you know, being under that in terms of
[SPEAKER_03]: walk rates and being over that in terms of strikeout rates, I think are important.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that ground ball rate is also important.
[SPEAKER_03]: Particularly kind of above that 40% threshold.
[SPEAKER_03]: Once you show the ability to maybe generate ground balls at a 45 plus percent rate with strikeouts and command, I think kind of checking all of those boxes.
[SPEAKER_03]: You're probably fishing in the right ponds and lakes there in terms of the,
[SPEAKER_03]: the type of players you're going to be able to identify in the upper miners pitching wise.
[SPEAKER_03]: A lot of this stuff honestly, like I download the full minor league leader board for all pitchers and on fan graphs and I create sort of my own custom report because I'm a subscriber to fan graphs.
[SPEAKER_03]: And
[SPEAKER_03]: And then just export that out and, you know, put it into a spreadsheet and identify who's available and, and eligible for the role five draft and then sort of put in Her benchmarks and that allows me to identify that stuff.
[SPEAKER_03]: I then factor in the non public pitch data, which helps us go in an additional step, but a lot of that baseline production kind of puts you in the right spot and then you can kind of do your own research.
[SPEAKER_03]: in terms of, you know, chopping around the internet, seeing if there's anything on prospects of on from either low-A performance or triple-A performance and you can kind of piece all that stuff together.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I encourage people to do.
[SPEAKER_03]: We love here in new names and
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I know there's a couple of readers out there that get really active during the role 5 and are always pinging me and JJ with, hey, have you looked at this guy yet?
[SPEAKER_03]: He's written about this guy.
[SPEAKER_03]: I was looking at him.
[SPEAKER_03]: He's pretty interesting.
[SPEAKER_03]: And we've gotten some good suggestions over the years from readers, frankly, that our sickos like us.
[SPEAKER_03]: We appreciate it.
[SPEAKER_03]: We love that.
[SPEAKER_03]: We do.
[SPEAKER_04]: We really do.
[SPEAKER_04]: We are sickos like you.
[SPEAKER_04]: If you are, if that is the sickle, like in that you are one of us, one of us, one of us.
[SPEAKER_04]: The other thing I would say is that this is the trickiest part of this, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: This is why I think, again, also like pitchers or lungs to get picked so much.
[SPEAKER_04]: James Smith, perfect example of this.
[SPEAKER_04]: We like James Smith a lot.
[SPEAKER_04]: We had James Smith and Mike Bassel both had very good years, both in our preview.
[SPEAKER_04]: But James Smith, what made him so great
[SPEAKER_04]: And that's the other part.
[SPEAKER_04]: I would say what's really like the third level and this is really difficult is like identifying a picture whose pitch mix.
[SPEAKER_04]: may not be where it needs to be right now, but maybe can get there, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: So there is always the argument of someone who can't spin a breaking ball, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_04]: Nowadays, I would say there are a lot of teams who feel like that they can teach you some kind of breaking ball.
[SPEAKER_04]: They can they lay out the the tray of breaking balls and they say, try this one.
[SPEAKER_04]: That didn't work.
[SPEAKER_04]: Now, try this one, then try this, try this and eventually they feel like they can get you to one.
[SPEAKER_04]: So you can have
[SPEAKER_04]: for instance was pitch mix was probably not ideal for what they do, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: Again, we see less of this now, but not optimized and a team may think, hey, if we switch on from this to this, we think that that will then make them a useful reliever where maybe they weren't.
[SPEAKER_04]: But as you hit,
[SPEAKER_04]: They kind of have the underlying performance already, and then you're thinking you can unlock another level.
[SPEAKER_04]: It's not something used to be that you would literally, I would describe it that used to be that the Rule Five draft was kind of like the fifth through 15th round of the MLB draft now, where,
[SPEAKER_04]: Teams now look at college pictures like, I love him.
[SPEAKER_04]: He's got an ADRA, but he's got a great arm.
[SPEAKER_04]: We can fix him and then they go draft him and then he gets better and pro ball.
[SPEAKER_04]: But they have four to five years to fix that.
[SPEAKER_04]: The rule five draft used to take some of those guys.
[SPEAKER_04]: Torrell Young at to me is the one that always stands out.
[SPEAKER_04]: Through a hundred backwind, a hundred was really odd, really rare.
[SPEAKER_04]: Through a hundred was of the red, and that's took a one-one.
[SPEAKER_04]: guy had no idea what was going, you know, no idea what was going, never had any success, never had any experience about they ball believe at the time, never pitch for the nationals.
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, like basically never had any chance of sticking.
[SPEAKER_04]: Those kind of guys used to get taken, they don't get taken now.
[SPEAKER_04]: Now it's guys who already have had some success and then you add something to it.
[SPEAKER_04]: But before we leave, we also have to hit on.
[SPEAKER_04]: What I would say both of us, you know, we've talked about a little bit offline before this.
[SPEAKER_04]: Let's start with a fascinating Orioles Angels trade last night.
[SPEAKER_04]: The Angels Trade Taylor Ward, outfitter hit 36 homers, career high 36 homers for them in 2025.
[SPEAKER_04]: He goes to the Orioles and the angels in return get right hand at Grace and Rodriguez, who was obviously one of the best pitching prospects and baseball few years ago, struggled in 2023, kind of went back down, kind of figured it out a little bit.
[SPEAKER_04]: Had a very solid 24 season for the Orioles before going down with an injury, pitched 116 in in that year, but did not finish the season for them.
[SPEAKER_04]: did not pitch at all in 25, then at the end of the season, near the end of the season was announced.
[SPEAKER_04]: They had elbow, debris, mint, surgery, which is essentially he had bone chips in there that were rattling around.
[SPEAKER_04]: They removed those, not Tommy John, but it is.
[SPEAKER_04]: I've had people tell me before that bone chips is something when it's rattling around, that's never good for a ligament either, right, for the stability of a ligament.
[SPEAKER_04]: So
[SPEAKER_04]: And the stunning part of this trade is is that while Ward obviously had a very productive 25, he is in a final year before free agency, we'll be 32 for much of this season.
[SPEAKER_04]: And we'll probably make an arbitration 12, 13, 14 million dollars this afternoon for next year.
[SPEAKER_04]: Rodriguez has four years of team control remaining is not yet at arbitration.
[SPEAKER_04]: I'll just kick it to you, Jeff.
[SPEAKER_04]: Like, I would say that the way that this makes, I struggled with the explanation of this.
[SPEAKER_04]: And I talked to people I know with different other teams.
[SPEAKER_04]: And they said, like, yeah, if you just look at this, purely on the surface, cost-controlled, young, starting pitcher, even with injury risk versus one year of a productive, but not five or four war.
[SPEAKER_04]: outfielder, a productive slugger who was probably if you're hoping for a three-war season from who make who's making money right now.
[SPEAKER_04]: That calculus does not add up for most teams.
[SPEAKER_04]: What do you take away?
[SPEAKER_04]: What is your sense of this trick?
[SPEAKER_03]: The feeling I get, you know, with the teams involved, and, you know, I'll be honest, I've struggled to try to wrap my head around some of Baltimore's roster building over the last couple of years where they had this golden generation of players.
[SPEAKER_03]: And what's just contrasted with the BlueJays who,
[SPEAKER_03]: The run of that golden age, just that young core that came up might have just ended with Boba Chef, probably walking this off season.
[SPEAKER_03]: But they always, maybe things didn't work out.
[SPEAKER_03]: They constantly tried to supplement that group.
[SPEAKER_03]: with good veterans, they spent a lot of money going out and getting maybe not frontline pitching, Gaussman probably falls into that category, but at least number three type of starters.
[SPEAKER_03]: And they had a lot of those guys still remaining.
[SPEAKER_03]: And we didn't see burials in some of these other in the playoffs because of injuries.
[SPEAKER_03]: The Orioles haven't done that.
[SPEAKER_03]: They tried to, and for multiple years now, outside of that Corbin Burns deal, which they had for a year, they've tried to sort of,
[SPEAKER_03]: fit a square peg in a round hole regarding like starting pitching for a competitive team, they just haven't had the horses, they haven't had the guys in that rotation.
[SPEAKER_03]: The fact that they were willing to move on from grace and rotary gas makes me think that there was
[SPEAKER_03]: Hmm, more concern regarding the medicals and just how healthy he's going to stay in the coming years that they wanted to sort of get out from under it while they could.
[SPEAKER_03]: They have a lot of outfielders though.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, adding word, I don't really necessarily understand the return for them.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think I was looking today and there's probably,
[SPEAKER_03]: six, five or six outfielders on that roster now that have like full-time MLB seasons and the last couple of years.
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm just going to throw it.
[SPEAKER_04]: Hold the house here.
[SPEAKER_04]: Tyler O'Neill, how about the way?
[SPEAKER_04]: Signed last year as an off season for three years, $50 million.
[SPEAKER_04]: And it's basically, if you ask, what does Tyler O'Neill do?
[SPEAKER_04]: Tyler O'Neill, if you said, what is his closest production comp that you hope to get?
[SPEAKER_04]: It would be Taylor Ward.
[SPEAKER_04]: In their good years, there are right-handed power hitters, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm not saying that there aren't distinctions between them.
[SPEAKER_04]: But they're 31-year-old right-handed power hitters who are making like, you know, in the mid-15-15 million dollar ranking.
[SPEAKER_04]: And they have him signed for next year as well.
[SPEAKER_04]: And if they tried to trade him after a terrible 2020-24-24-25, see, let's just say,
[SPEAKER_04]: The he will be a dump if they trade him.
[SPEAKER_04]: They will not get value for him in return.
[SPEAKER_04]: That will be will take on your problem contract, if you'll take on ours kind of thing.
[SPEAKER_04]: And then we've got, as you just went, Dylan Beavers, then you've got Hesting Kierstead.
[SPEAKER_04]: They got Jeremiah Jackson who came up for them at the end of last year, nice minor league rule five pick.
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, minor league got free agent pick up.
[SPEAKER_04]: They just finally, it would have aroused to a deal.
[SPEAKER_04]: They then have at Triple A, they added retryumbled to their 40 man.
[SPEAKER_04]: They have Enrique Bradfield, and they have Judd Fabian all slated to be at Triple A.
[SPEAKER_04]: They have drafted five outfielders
[SPEAKER_04]: and the first call to out there is the first round in the since 2019, they've drafted another 11 in the top 100 picks and only about the way Nate George was a little further away but Nate George was one of their best draft picks recently was a high school outfield or who really blossomed in 2025.
[SPEAKER_04]: That's a lot of outfields.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, an absolute ton.
[SPEAKER_03]: So, I mean, it's a weird trade.
[SPEAKER_03]: I saw it hit last night as I was right and up some of these real five names
[SPEAKER_03]: I think you had actually just written it up.
[SPEAKER_03]: And yeah, I had trouble kind of wrapping my head around it, but I think the return for the Orioles is the most shocking thing.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not shocked that the angels could be coerced into making a trade for an injured pitcher that may not be a good long-term investment, but has a sizzle kind of name.
[SPEAKER_03]: But, you know,
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a new pitching coach with the angels that obviously has a pretty good track record too.
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe he's going to be able to unlock some stuff with Grayson Rodriguez.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's going to be the best park Rodriguez has ever pitched in terms of run environment, that's sort of thing.
[SPEAKER_03]: So I think there's some positives here for Rodriguez.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just a matter of like, can this guy throw 150 innings in the season?
[SPEAKER_03]: It may not be next year, but in the coming years,
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, I don't quite get like I said, I don't, I don't quite get the, the Taylor Ward Fritz who the Orioles, but we'll see if they make a trade with some other outfielders here.
[SPEAKER_04]: But that's okay.
[SPEAKER_04]: So this is the, the two things we'll ask Drug with it.
[SPEAKER_04]: Let's say the Grace Rodriguez is a non durable starting pitcher who can never get more than 100 innings in a season over the next four seasons before he is free agency.
[SPEAKER_04]: If you said that was the case.
[SPEAKER_04]: Let's say that again, let's throw the other hypothetical.
[SPEAKER_04]: Let's say that this elbow agreement is not enough and he goes to spring training and ends up having Tommy John, which by the way, all of these injuries, I'm not saying all of them, but it seems like almost all of these issues that he's had can really stem from, he's had this one issue.
[SPEAKER_04]: And as pictures are want to do, look back at Andrew Painter, there's other examples.
[SPEAKER_04]: Getting cut on, getting surgery is a significant,
[SPEAKER_04]: decision and so players like to try to rehab it.
[SPEAKER_04]: He's had multiple years of trying to rehab this, but let's say that he missed all of 26 and part of 27 and then came back and was more durable, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: So whatever way it is, whether he misses a full year over the next floor or he misses parts of different seasons, if he averages 100 innings of what he did in
[SPEAKER_04]: considering the salaries he's had, I think the angels win the trade.
[SPEAKER_04]: Because, you know, again, now you could say that the Orioles are all in it for 26.
[SPEAKER_04]: And so that's more important and you could make that argument or whatever.
[SPEAKER_04]: But one year of a, let's say two to three war player with power, you know, okay, good corner outfit or with power at 13, 14 million dollars, versus a starting pitcher,
[SPEAKER_04]: let's say four years of that at my Julie minimum or a little bit above it this year, modest salary next year, modest but a little bit more salary than next year.
[SPEAKER_04]: And then bigger salary in 2029, most teams would rather have the B there, unless they are really going all in for next year, because cost-controlled young starting pitching, even if not durable,
[SPEAKER_04]: We got more of it over at BaseballAmerica.com.
[SPEAKER_04]: We also have a top 10 prospects meeting that we have to go over to school's grades and all.
[SPEAKER_04]: So it's never stops here at VA. We love it.
[SPEAKER_04]: We love it.
[SPEAKER_04]: But for that, for Jeff, I'm JJ.
[SPEAKER_04]: So long, everybody.