[SPEAKER_01]: Make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners.
[SPEAKER_01]: One minute, you're up half a minute and soybeans in the next bull.
[SPEAKER_01]: Your kids don't go to college and they've registered mentally.
[SPEAKER_03]: Are you with me?
[SPEAKER_03]: The revolutions start now, staunch.
[SPEAKER_00]: We have to pass the bills so that you can find out what is in it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Turn those machines back on!
[SPEAKER_03]: You are about to enter the Peter-Shift Show.
[SPEAKER_02]: If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is the last stand on Earth.
[SPEAKER_02]: The Peter ship shall resign.
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know when they decided that they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness.
[SPEAKER_03]: Your money.
[SPEAKER_03]: Your stories.
[SPEAKER_03]: Your freedom.
[SPEAKER_03]: The Peter ship shall.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, today was another big day in the precious metals, and you know that sharp correction is quickly becoming a distant memory at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: Gold was up about $70 today, but it was up
[SPEAKER_01]: $100 on Monday.
[SPEAKER_01]: So as I am recording this podcast on Wednesday evening, Gold is back at 4,200.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, it did trade above that earlier today.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, Gold was only higher than it is right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: on five days in history right this was before the correction.
[SPEAKER_01]: Silver on the other hand has had an even bigger comeback.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was up better than two dollars and hours today.
[SPEAKER_01]: It actually traded above 53 50 intraday.
[SPEAKER_01]: It backed off a little bit.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're at 5331 right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: But we're only about a dollar below the record high.
[SPEAKER_01]: The highest silver got in that initial run a few weeks ago was 5440.
[SPEAKER_01]: We came less than a dollar away from that today.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact,
[SPEAKER_01]: Based on where silver is right now, there was only one day in history, where silver traded higher than it's trading right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So for all the people that were talking about the end of the bull market, there's only been one day that we've had a higher price.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yet despite that, there are plenty of silver stocks that are still in bear market territory.
[SPEAKER_01]: I looked at a couple of big ones today,
[SPEAKER_01]: that were down, I think you're down about 30% in quarter lane from the high, about 20% in and diverse silver, about 10% in Pan-American silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: The only silver stock that I noticed that made a new high, because it was up 8% today was hecklo mining.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the fact that so many silver stocks are basically in bear markets.
[SPEAKER_01]: when silver is trading at the second highest price that it's ever traded.
[SPEAKER_01]: It just shows you how quickly the sentiment sourd just on a sell-off.
[SPEAKER_01]: And remember, silver got down to about $46 in change at the low.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now we're back up to 53 plus.
[SPEAKER_01]: And as I said, 50 is no longer the resistance.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mentioned that on the podcast, I did on Friday when I just got back from the New Orleans conference.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mentioned that there wasn't a lot of exuberism there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, yeah, I mean, but it was tempered.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there was a lot of people that were worried about a bigger correction, a lot of people talking about taking profits.
[SPEAKER_01]: And what I was saying was the mistake that people are going to make in this bull market is taking profits too soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, sure, you know, traders you could have sold and bought back these gold stocks, they did have a big enough pullback.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, you could still buy back if you got out right at the top.
[SPEAKER_01]: But most people aren't going to get back in.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to get out and, you know, they'll be waiting for a bigger correction.
[SPEAKER_01]: The corrections are generally very swift.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe they're shallow and they're over with a lot of people who probably bailed out aren't back in yet.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the next thing they know, we're going to be at record highs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, certainly in the metals themselves.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, silver can easily hit a new record high this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: Gold, you know, is a little bit further from its high.
[SPEAKER_01]: Gold still has a couple of hundred dollars to go because gold almost hit fifty four hundred.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we need a bigger rally in gold than than we do in silver, but they're both likely to make new highs and I'm going to get into some of the fundamentals because there were a lot of very bullish news items.
[SPEAKER_01]: that we were getting in the market.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, of course, one of them, I think, is the end of the government shutdown.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I mentioned that on the last podcast that it looked like it was getting likely that the shutdown would end.
[SPEAKER_01]: And by Monday morning, it was pretty much a done deal.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that was really the catalyst for the $100 rise in the price of gold, $100 plus,
[SPEAKER_01]: was the end of the government shutdown.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, a lot of people might have thought intuitively, well, wouldn't that be bad for gold?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, wasn't gold going up because the government shutdown was bad for the economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was creating uncertainty and that that was benefiting gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that once that uncertainty was behind us, once the government reopened and that was good for the economy,
[SPEAKER_01]: That would hurt gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to a lot of people might have thought.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the opposite happened because the government reopening isn't bad for gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the government staying open.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's bad for gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because when the government is open, it's doing bad stuff.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's spending a lot of money.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's borrowing a lot of money.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's printing a lot of money.
[SPEAKER_01]: The problem with the shutdown was we didn't shut down enough government.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe if we shut down a lot more government, that might have been bad for gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the fact of the matter is it's business as usual in Washington, D.C. And that's good for gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because it means the reckless spending is going to continue.
[SPEAKER_01]: The money printing is going to continue.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so inflation is going to get worse.
[SPEAKER_01]: The dollar is ultimately going to crack.
[SPEAKER_01]: And all of this
[SPEAKER_01]: is is bullish for gold and bullish for silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: But before I get to some of the other things that happen, I also want to juxtapose what's happening in gold and silver right now to what's happening in in crypto and Bitcoin and the whole crypto industry.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is also happening in general because you know, the Dow Jones hit another new record high today.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're getting closer
[SPEAKER_01]: down, which doesn't really mean much in the context of $4,000 gold, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: The media won't talk to you about that, but we're at $48,000 to $50 or so in the Dow.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the Dow hit a new record hi-to-day, but the Nasdaq was flat to slightly lower on the day.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're getting more of a rotation continuing out of growth, particularly technology stocks, which if had problems last week and they're having more problems again this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're seeing some money coming out of the tech sector, but before people started moving money out of tech,
[SPEAKER_01]: they were moving money at a crypto.
[SPEAKER_01]: The crypto industry has been decimated.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Donald Trump, D.J.T.
[SPEAKER_01]: that stock hit a new 52 week load a, it's down over 70% from its January high.
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the reasons that it's doing so poorly is because it pivoted to become a Bitcoin treasury company earlier in the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: But look at, you know, the Winkle voss, you know, Gemini space station, that thing just came out, not too long ago, it's down over 70%.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the same thing for circle.
[SPEAKER_01]: Circle is down.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's still up from the IPO because it went crazy.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you bought it on the highs, I think that first, I don't know if it was the first day or the first week, you're down 70% in that stock.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that stock bullish, you know, also another crypto, you know, down, I think 70% I mean, these things are getting killed, micro strategy is down maybe about 55% it almost hit a new 52 week load a day, which may might have been down about 60% but it didn't quite, quite hit it, although I think it will probably do it tomorrow.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin itself is still hanging in there.
[SPEAKER_01]: at just over a hundred thousand a hundred and two thousand and change.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Bitcoin is now down thirty five percent priced in gold since its October high.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is November.
[SPEAKER_01]: So from last month's high to now, you've got a 35% drop.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, in terms of the dollar, it's only down 19%, which is still a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: But 35% priced in gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a big deal that the entire crypto community is glossing over and acting like it's nothing.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is something.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think people are ignoring this at their own financial peril.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think what's a bigger indicator is what's happening to the whole crypto industry.
[SPEAKER_01]: And all these crypto stocks, whether it's exchanges or the Bitcoin Treasury fund stocks or the Ethereum Treasury or whatever, anything that is now connected in any way to crypto is getting killed.
[SPEAKER_01]: and pretty much anybody who bought into crypto-related stocks this year is getting killed.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, it's it's ironic, because Donald Trump, one of the things he said was that he wanted to make America the crypto capital of the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: or not to crypto, the number one in crypto, he wanted America to be leading the world in crypto and then be the Bitcoin capital of the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what he said was his goal.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, in that interview, we did for 60 minutes, he said that was the only thing he cared about, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Forget about everything else.
[SPEAKER_01]: All he really cares about was making America number one in crypto.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, the problem is, we already are number one.
[SPEAKER_01]: Trump doesn't have to make us number one.
[SPEAKER_01]: We are number one, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: More than half to people who own Bitcoin, live in America, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: We're dominating crypto.
[SPEAKER_01]: We are the Bitcoin capital of the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: But soon we're going to be the laughing stock of the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: The last thing you want to be is number one in crypto.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because the crypto bubble is deflating.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot more air that's going to come out of this thing, but the country that leads in crypto is the country that's got the most to lose when the bubble pops.
[SPEAKER_01]: So because we're the leader in crypto, we're going to be the leader in economic damage done from the bursting of this bubble.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's going to be significant implications for the U.S. economy, which is also
[SPEAKER_01]: because all of the losses and the malinvestments that are going to be exposed are going to help gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, a lot of people that work in the crypto industry are going to be out of work.
[SPEAKER_01]: So unemployment is going to go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of things are going to happen negative.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if it's as big or maybe it is bigger than the bursting of the dot com bubble.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if the AI bubble bursts and the crypto bubble, I mean, that's going to dwarf the dot com bubble.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think that the crypto bubble is bigger than the dot com bubble all by itself.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we did get into a recession when the dot com bubble popped, although we also had the September 11th, you know, terrorist attacks.
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... but i think we're already in recession so i think that you know all the job losses and investment losses and remember you know people are going to react to this reverse wealth effect because i think if bitcoin cracks this hundred thousand i know it got below it last week of the ninety nine but you know they were able to circle the wagons and and prop it up
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think that if we crack and we really make a big drop in Bitcoin, I mean, even like 50,000, which is still a really high price, you know, for nothing.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, I think the losses are going to be substantial.
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, if Bitcoin goes to 50,000, a lot of these stocks that are down 70% are going to be down 95%.
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, some of them are going to be down 100% because they're going to go bankrupt.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think a lot of these Bitcoin treasury companies that bought up a lot of Bitcoin are going to be selling the Bitcoin they bought at big losses.
[SPEAKER_01]: But when all these Bitcoin buyers turn into Bitcoin sellers, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Look out the way and of course, the biggest seller of them all will be micro strategies.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I don't know how long sailor can probably hold out more than most.
[SPEAKER_01]: But eventually, he's going to be a selling Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this is a key thing to look at what's going on.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I know for those of you who watch my podcast and yeah, you know, I've been saying this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I've been saying this.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I know Bitcoin's gone up a lot.
[SPEAKER_01]: But over the past four years, it hasn't.
[SPEAKER_01]: So sure.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, I dismissed this thing 10 years ago and you know, I didn't get in on it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yes, I missed out on the opportunity to make a lot of money speculating on a Bitcoin bubble forming.
[SPEAKER_01]: But over the last four years, since Bitcoin hit 69,000 in 2021, people are better off
[SPEAKER_01]: in the investments that I have been recommending, as opposed to Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_01]: And meanwhile, Bitcoin is a lot farther below its highs than anything I've recommended.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, look at where golden silver are, they're right near their highs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin is far from its high.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there are a lot of people now have big losses who bought in.
[SPEAKER_01]: And especially if they bought into these crypto-related stocks because they've done a lot worse,
[SPEAKER_01]: then Bitcoin, whereas gold stocks have done great over the last couple of years.
[SPEAKER_01]: So people who bought gold stocks are way ahead of people who bought these crypto stocks over the last four years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what, you know, there weren't that many crypto stocks to buy 10 years ago.
[SPEAKER_01]: There was just, there were just the tokens.
[SPEAKER_01]: But people need to wake up and smell the tulips here and realize that this trade is over.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
[SPEAKER_01]: All the big money has been made.
[SPEAKER_01]: in crypto.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now the key is to get out.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what they're trying to do.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what all this stuff was about.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why they needed Trump in offense.
[SPEAKER_01]: They needed, they needed the US government to pump this thing up so they could dump.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what's been going on.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so if you're watching the podcast and you still are hodling some Bitcoin, get out.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's above 100,000.
[SPEAKER_01]: You'll think me later.
[SPEAKER_01]: Get out.
[SPEAKER_01]: But don't just get out and go to Fiat.
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't have to do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: buy some real gold and silver right go to shift gold go there tonight you can it when you check out you could check out and and use a bit pay bit pay as a company i want the first company shift gold when the first companies to partner with bit pay and you could take you go on one transaction one simple thing you can buy some gold and silver by it now
[SPEAKER_01]: and pay for it with Bitcoin, not with Fiat, but with Fiat tokens with your Bitcoin or your Ethereum.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we take Ethereum.
[SPEAKER_01]: You'd have to sell your Ethereum and then send us the cash.
[SPEAKER_01]: But with Bitcoin, we could do it with BitPay, but get out of something that's about to go way down.
[SPEAKER_01]: and then get into something real that's gonna go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: And even if you, if you love Bitcoin, buy it back, it's gonna go a lot lower even if it goes higher eventually.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even if it does.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I don't think so, but even if it does, I think it's going a lot lower before it goes higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it can go higher until micro strategy is flushed out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Until that company is bankrupt
[SPEAKER_01]: you don't want to be long Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_01]: And just because Jim Chano, you know, he, he had a great short, he, he shorted micro strategy and he bought Bitcoin and he closed it out, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because the big premium that micro strategy had to Bitcoin is gone.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's a small premium and he didn't think it was worth the risk to stick it out.
[SPEAKER_01]: He just, you know, closed this trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: And people thought, oh, see that means now it's the bottom.
[SPEAKER_01]: No, it doesn't.
[SPEAKER_01]: He wasn't commenting on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, he said that he thought microstrategy would keep falling, but he would leave that profit to somebody else that he was content with what he made.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, it's a smart trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to criticize him for closing out a trade with a big gain.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I believe that this is just a sign.
[SPEAKER_01]: The fact that this big premium is gone, remember what happened with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust when it had a big premium?
[SPEAKER_01]: What was I saying?
[SPEAKER_01]: I told everybody that eventually it would trade at a big discount.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's exactly what happened.
[SPEAKER_01]: The same thing's going to happen with Michael strategy.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not just that the premium's going to go away.
[SPEAKER_01]: Microstrategy is about to trade for a significant discount to the value of its Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, normally, what it would do, it would go and sell some Bitcoin so it could buy back stock and close the discount.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, sailor will never do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: because that would destroy Bitcoin.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's never going to happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now he's going to get desperate in issuing preferred and borrowing money.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's going to be a death spiral.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so this thing is going to collapse.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you don't want any part of Bitcoin until he's flushed out.
[SPEAKER_01]: And when he's flushed out, a lot of other people are going to get flushed out.
[SPEAKER_01]: All the people who've been borrowing money against our Bitcoin, they're going to get margin calls.
[SPEAKER_01]: That Bitcoin's going to get dumped.
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of lenders who have been lending against Bitcoin collateral are going to take huge losses because when they dumped this Bitcoin into a collapsing market, they're not going to get enough money to cover the loan balance.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is a crypto financial crisis, and we're knocking right on the door.
[SPEAKER_01]: So get out of Dodge while you can go to shift gold and buy some golden silver at shift gold.com.
[SPEAKER_01]: Got a quick commercial break.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're coming right back.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well,
[SPEAKER_01]: Crypto is not the only Trump trade that is blowing up.
[SPEAKER_01]: And other of the Trump trades was the GSEs, Fanny and Freddie.
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of people loaded up on shares of Fanny and Freddie.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, it's been a great trade if you made that trade.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because before Trump was elected, you could have bought these shares for between $1.5 and $2.
[SPEAKER_01]: They were trading for months and months and months.
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, before Trump, uh, won.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then when he won, they popped up a bit, but they were still trading at $2 to $3 range for a couple of months.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the reason that people bought them is because everybody was betting that Donald Trump was going to recapitalize the GSEs and release them from conservatorship in this new IPO and everybody who bought in, it was going to make a boatload of money on this deal.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the stocks are still up now about five or six times.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they're trading at eight and a half nine dollars.
[SPEAKER_01]: But they're now down about 40% from where they peaked out.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe a month or two ago, but the entire rise in these stocks has been driven by hype coming out of the Trump administration about the IPO and it's going to happen and it's going to be great and these companies are phenomenal, they're the best companies are the greatest companies.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're horrible companies.
[SPEAKER_01]: They should be shut down.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they went bankrupt, but unfortunately, they were kept alive in conservatorship.
[SPEAKER_01]: We should have gotten rid of them.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I always said that the problem with the plan to privatize Franny and Freddie, and I talked about it at length on one of the podcasts, was you couldn't do it with a government guarantee because before they went bankrupt.
[SPEAKER_01]: There was no government guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: The government went out of its way to warn everybody who bought Fannie and Freddie guaranteed debt that there was no government guarantee that yes, these were government sponsored enterprises, but the US government doesn't stand behind their debt.
[SPEAKER_01]: and that's why they traded at a premium to treasuries right because obviously the government stands behind treasuries and they told everybody they ridden the prospectus if you know you bought anything that was guaranteed by fanny and Freddie it was it had a warning on it warning these securities are not U.S. government guaranteed right so that's what the government was saying now the reason the the
[SPEAKER_01]: The guarantee was implicit was because a lot of the buyers of Fanny and Freddie that basically said, look, we don't care what the US government says.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, if Fanny and Freddie go under, we bet they'll bail them, they'll bail us out.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the bet that people were making, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: The government won't let it happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: and but nobody knew right and so it wasn't a sure thing which is why there was a premium that yes if you bought banyan Freddy get dead you got a higher rate of interest than if you bought treasuries because there wasn't a real government guarantee but there was the possibility that the government would bail him out anyway even though they they told you and they warned you that they weren't going to do it you know the market was like yeah right right now it turns out
[SPEAKER_01]: the buyers of Fanny and Freddie that were in fact right the government did bail them out even though they told everybody wouldn't do it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But they never you know there was never an actual guarantee well Donald Trump stated that he wants to bring a public but revive the implicit guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: He says, I want to bring them public with an implicit guarantee, but you can't do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: The government can't state, yes, we have an implicit guarantee, because then that's explicit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in fact, just by saying that, you create a legal obligation, because if the government says, look, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, in the perspective, we say that there's no guarantee, but don't worry.
[SPEAKER_01]: There really is.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, even though we told you we're not going to guarantee it, we're going to.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I mean, people could rely on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: The government never went out of its way to reassure anybody that there was a guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: They did the opposite.
[SPEAKER_01]: No guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so,
[SPEAKER_01]: without a guarantee, mortgage rates are gonna go up, which he doesn't want.
[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't want mortgage rates to go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: So he thought, well, we'll bring them public with the implicit guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's impossible.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because if you state that the guarantee is implicit, well, now it's explicit.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in fact, an explicit guarantee would, in fact, require congressional approval because now you're obligating the U.S. government, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: You're putting the U.S. government legally on the hook.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so Congress would have to authorize that.
[SPEAKER_01]: and it's not going to get through Congress, because there's not enough for Republicans that want to do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, not on the Democrats will, so he's got no chance of getting an explicit guarantee through Congress.
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, that would make the moral hazard even worse.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, think about all the damage that was done with an implicit guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: It would be even worse if they made it explicit.
[SPEAKER_01]: So Trump said he wanted to do something that was impossible.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that guys inside is administration, even though they were pumping this up to help out their buddies, because by the way, some of Trump's biggest donors
[SPEAKER_01]: own all the stock right they were the big buyers of fanning friend they gave a lot of money to his campaign and supported him and what what one of the things they expected in return was the fanning for any IPO right that's how they were going to get a big payday uh... on the money they invested in his campaign because had bite in one or harris one there's no way these things were going to we're going to be uh... IPO
[SPEAKER_01]: And so by talking it up, they got the prices to go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think they realized that it was impossible to do this.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so then, Polty, who is the head of this whole thing, FHA and Overseas, Fanny and Freddie,
[SPEAKER_01]: He came out and he said, you know what, we're going to do the IPO, but we're going to keep the company in conservatorship.
[SPEAKER_01]: which number one defeats the whole purpose of the IPO because the whole idea was recapitalized and released them from conservatorship.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so investors would be buying these private companies that were no longer in government or conservatorship.
[SPEAKER_01]: They would put a bunch of money in to recapitalize them so they can theoretically stand on their own and then they would own shares in a private company again.
[SPEAKER_01]: But they're saying, OK, we're going to keep them in receivership and do the IPO anyway.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, who the hell is going to want to buy stock in a company that's still in receivership, where you have a hundred percent government control, and you don't get any dividends, they can't even pay any dividends.
[SPEAKER_01]: And they don't even resolve the issue with the senior preferred, and all that it's like they're trying to figure out how to have their cake and eat it, too, without acknowledging
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no way, now, the best thing to do is get rid of Fanny and Frey.
[SPEAKER_01]: They shouldn't exist, and either should the FHA, they're part of the problem, not part of the solution.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the worst thing you could do with them is bring them back, especially with an explicit guarantee, because then you're back with private profits and socialize losses.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if we're going to make the mistake,
[SPEAKER_01]: of having the U.S. government guarantee mortgages, which it should not do, but if we're going to do it, then Fanny and Freddie should stay 100% government-owned government gets to profit, government gets to loss.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's better than private investors getting the profit, government getting to loss.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the worst.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the worst kind of crony capitalism, so I don't want the government involved at all.
[SPEAKER_01]: then keep the whole thing as part of the government, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: What they were talking about doing was horrible, but of course it would have enriched a lot of people.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the fact that they're now admitting that they want to take this thing public and not take it out of conservatorship.
[SPEAKER_01]: And they only want to sell like 5% of the stock.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, which is a tiny amount that wouldn't even raise much money.
[SPEAKER_01]: If they do it, it's mainly so Trump can brag about the fact that this thing is supposedly worth so much money, because now he'll have a, you know, they'll be a publicly traded stock, but it's already trading, you could already see what the government stake is theoretically worth.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't even know that you accomplish much, but the whole administration is very worried about the housing market.
[SPEAKER_01]: And given the fact that they're so worried about the housing market,
[SPEAKER_01]: The last thing that I want to do is upset a rotten apple cart with an IPO, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, the data that came out, I think this week or last week, but the average home or the average first time home buyer is now 40 years old, 40 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I think in the late 1990s, it was less than 30, maybe 28 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so,
[SPEAKER_01]: It's harder and harder for Americans to afford to buy a home.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so they can't buy one until they're a lot older, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And so this is very problematic.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, if people try to start a family in their 30s and they need a house, well, they can't afford to buy one.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the government is trying to come up with ways to make home ownership more affordable.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now of course the obvious solution that only the government could miss is that they need lower home prices right that that is the dissolution right if something is unaffordable like housing How do you improve affordability lower the cost lower the price right so when way to do that is to make it cheaper to build homes
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, a lot of that could be at the state and local level.
[SPEAKER_01]: They have zoning laws and permitting and things like that that are beyond the government's control, the federal government.
[SPEAKER_01]: But one thing the federal government could do is get rid of the terrorists on lumber, on steel.
[SPEAKER_01]: These are things that you need to build houses.
[SPEAKER_01]: and Trump has made those things more expensive.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you can't complain about the high cost of homes when you are pursuing policies that increase the cost of building homes, the same thing with his immigration.
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of the people who worked in construction were here illegally.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now,
[SPEAKER_01]: say what you will about illegal or illegal immigration, but if you chase all those people out, who's going to build these homes?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, now they got a higher maybe legal Americans, and that's going to be more expensive.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the policies that we're pursuing are driving up material costs and driving up labor costs, that makes it more expensive to build homes.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we don't get as big an
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, is funny when it comes to tariffs, right, because today Donald Trump, right, because coffee prices are at all time record highs, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And Donald Trump came out and said, I hear the problem.
[SPEAKER_01]: I see there's a problem with coffee prices.
[SPEAKER_01]: And we're going to do something about it.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to lower the tariffs on coffee, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Trump wants to now lower the tariffs on coffee to help bring down coffee prices.
[SPEAKER_01]: But wait a minute, if
[SPEAKER_01]: Lowering tariffs reduces prices, then increasing tariffs must raise prices, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: It has to, but Trump told us that tariffs don't increase prices that if we put on tariffs, the foreigners are going to pay the tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to eat the tariffs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, why are the coffee farmers eating our coffee tariffs?
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, they're not.
[SPEAKER_01]: If Donald Trump understands that he can lower coffee prices
[SPEAKER_01]: That means he knows that his tariffs are raising prices and he's been lying to the American public that they're not.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so obviously if tariffs are raising coffee prices, then tariffs are raising home prices, you know, because you need steel and you need lumber to build these houses.
[SPEAKER_01]: excess of credit in the housing market because the government is in the business of guaranteeing mortgages.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is easier for people to borrow money to bid up home prices.
[SPEAKER_01]: And because people can borrow money with a government guarantee, lenders are willing to loan people more money with which to buy houses, then they otherwise would be willing to loan absent that government guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: So lending standards are a lot lower.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so people are able to borrow more money to buy homes.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that means that home prices are higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the same thing with college.
[SPEAKER_01]: Why is college so expensive?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because the government guarantees student loans, or the government provides student loans.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now the students take this money they got from the government, and they go and they bid up tuition prices.
[SPEAKER_01]: Colleges are able to raise their tuition because the students have all this government money.
[SPEAKER_01]: If they didn't have all this government money, they couldn't raise prices that high.
[SPEAKER_01]: The same thing with houses.
[SPEAKER_01]: If the government got out of the mortgage business.
[SPEAKER_01]: It would be a lot harder for people to take out loans.
[SPEAKER_01]: They would take out smaller loans.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so there would be less money bidding for homes.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so prices would come down.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you get the government out of the way, you get rid of the tariffs, you get rid of government guaranteed mortgages.
[SPEAKER_01]: Housing prices are gonna come down and now you've solved the affordability problem, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because houses are cheaper.
[SPEAKER_01]: More people could afford them.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, you can't get a government guaranteed mortgage, but you don't need to borrow as much money because the house is a lot cheaper.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you might be able to get a mortgage without a government guarantee because the mortgage itself is a lot smaller, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, you know, the other reason is people have a hard time saving up for a down payment because they're paying such high taxes because the government is so big and it taxes so much.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard for people to save for a down payment.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, and by the way, you know, interest is hardly anything.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you don't really get any interest when you're trying to save up for down payment.
[SPEAKER_01]: But instead of doing any of these things,
[SPEAKER_01]: that would allow housing prices to come down.
[SPEAKER_01]: The government is now trying to figure out new ways to make it easier for people to borrow more money to overpay for expensive houses, to make the problem worse.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is these three things are also going to make it harder to do any kind of fanny or Freddie IPO.
[SPEAKER_01]: So one thing that they want to do,
[SPEAKER_01]: is they're talking about fanny and Freddy now guaranteeing 50 year mortgages not a 30 year fixed rate but 50 year fixed rate mortgage.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now think about it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I just said that the average guy buying a home is 40 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: That means he's going to have to live to be 90 to pay off that mortgage 90 years old.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, that assumes there's no, you know, cash out refinance, saying, does do any home equity loans, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: He just makes his payments for the next 50 years.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then when he's 90 years old, if he's still breathing, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: He can tear up his, you know, burn his mortgage.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, first of all,
[SPEAKER_01]: all the comparisons, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: When I see how, but they say, well, you know, people will, there, there are monthly payments, we'll go down $200, $300 a month, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So that'll make it easier.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, first of all, they always assume that the interest rate is the same on a 50-year mortgage as a 30-year mortgage.
[SPEAKER_01]: It won't.
[SPEAKER_01]: The interest rate will be higher, much higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just like the interest rate now, if you go out and get a 15-year fix, they have those.
[SPEAKER_01]: You'll get a lower interest rate than a 30-year fix.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you want a 50-year fixed rate, it's going to be more expensive because the lender is taking 20 more years of risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: 20 more years, that inflation might erode away the principal higher interest rates, default risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: Who knows, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of extra risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't even imagine anybody wanting to loan out money for 50 years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't even know why they do it for 30 years.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even with the government guarantee, I wouldn't do it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, so the comparisons don't aren't even accurate because their interest rates are going to be higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's going to mean a 50 year mortgage is going to pencil out even worse.
[SPEAKER_01]: But of course, you know, you might as well rent because if you take out a 50 year mortgage for the first 20 years, 25 years, all your pain is interest anyway, you're barely touching any principle.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're just renting your property from the bank, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: the problem is you're on the hook for all the repairs, you're on the hook for the insurance, you're on the hook for the property taxes.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, you might as well rent from a real landlord because let him deal with all that stuff because that's really what you're doing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you're just pretending to buy the house.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, yes, if the house happens to go up and value, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you can get a windfall there.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what if it goes down?
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you're never going to have any equity.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, these are such risky loans.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if they actually did a 50-year mortgage,
[SPEAKER_01]: know what is going to want to issue one without a government guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why another reason that they got to keep Fanny and Freddie in in in in in receivership.
[SPEAKER_01]: But another bright idea.
[SPEAKER_01]: that they came up with is eliminating the FICO score minimum.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think maybe Freddie Mac already did that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Fanny may just announce that today, or yesterday, they had a minimum FICO score of 620.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now they're eliminating it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there is no requirement.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you don't probably don't even have to submit a FICO score.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not really sure what they're doing instead of that, they're looking at other metrics.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think the whole idea is just to allow people with worse credit.
[SPEAKER_01]: to buy homes.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what they're trying to do.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're trying to get people in the homes that they can't afford by letting people buy homes with a government guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: So now, Fannie and Freddie are going to be guaranteeing mortgages of even lower credit quality, which makes that government guarantee that much more important to the lender.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because if the government is guaranteeing the mortgage, the letters don't give a shit, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: They don't care, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Doesn't matter, you know, how much of a deadbeat the borrowers, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: The government is co-signing it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So nobody gives a damn, who cares about the fight those scores, who cares if the mortgage payments are 70% of his income.
[SPEAKER_01]: Doesn't matter, because the government is guaranteeing it, so I can't lose, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the moral hazard.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why you don't want the government to guarantee any mortgages.
[SPEAKER_01]: worried about losing money so they accurately price these loans and you don't want to encourage people to borrow over their head that you're not doing them a favor the free market you know when when somebody is rejected when a bank doesn't make a loan
[SPEAKER_01]: In many cases, they're doing the, the would be borrower of favor, because the banks want to make money.
[SPEAKER_01]: They want to make loans, but they want to get paid back.
[SPEAKER_01]: They don't want to make bad loans.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if a bank decides not to make a loan and, you know, deny itself the profit on that loan, it's because it's worried that there won't be a profit, because they're worried that you're not going to pay the loan back.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's a good thing then that you're not getting that money, that you're not putting yourself into a hole, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Wait until you can afford a home, then buy one.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the government wants you buy in a home, even if you can't afford it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the whole purpose is to keep the home prices up, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: That they want to prevent, because the solution, right, to the affordability problem, lower home prices, creates a financial crisis, because there's all these loans.
[SPEAKER_01]: right that have been made on inflated real estate values.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's what nobody wants to have happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: Nobody wants real estate prices to come down because it'll bankrupt a lot of lenders, cause a financial crisis.
[SPEAKER_01]: So in order to prevent the financial crisis, we have to keep real estate prices high.
[SPEAKER_01]: But now we create the affordability problem.
[SPEAKER_01]: So how do we solve that?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, according to the government, more bad debt.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just let more people borrow more money that they can't afford, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: To overpay for housing, they can't afford.
[SPEAKER_01]: Borrow money, they can't really pay back.
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll have the government guaranteed all.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's another thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the last thing that just happened, this is just today, is they talked about
[SPEAKER_01]: making their loans, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Fanny and Freddie guaranteed loans that already exist, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: These loans are already out there, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Not just new loans, I think, but the loans that already exist, making these loans retroactively portable and assumeable.
[SPEAKER_01]: So basically, this is what that means.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if I own a house and I got a mortgage and somebody wants to buy the house from me,
[SPEAKER_01]: they can buy it and assume my mortgage so they don't have to go into the market and borrow money although they probably have to borrow some and that's going to be part of the problem because let's say I have a six hundred thousand dollar house and I have you know a three hundred thousand dollar mortgage on it I bought it a while ago right so it's gone up I've got some equity and now somebody wants to buy that house from me even if they have a hundred thousand
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... they don't have a three hundred thousand our down payment right so they can't really assume my loan and and give me six hundred thousand or you know they have to give me three hundred thousand for the house and then they would take the house subject to a three hundred thousand our mortgage right and that would be six hundred thousand but most chances are they're not gonna have the three hundred thousand cash they're gonna have to go get a loan
[SPEAKER_01]: But that loan is gonna have to be subordinated to the mortgage that they're assuming.
[SPEAKER_01]: So now you have to go and get a second mortgage.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that second mortgage is gonna come with a much higher interest rate than a primary mortgage would have come with because it's in a weaker position.
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're not gonna really get as a buyer.
[SPEAKER_01]: If I've got a 3% mortgage,
[SPEAKER_01]: And you need to borrow more money.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to average a lot higher than that.
[SPEAKER_01]: It may be lower than the current rate, but it's not going to be the same low rate that somebody has now.
[SPEAKER_01]: But so one way is a buyer can assume my mortgage.
[SPEAKER_01]: The other would be that assuming I can sell my house, maybe I could find somebody who could actually afford to buy it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I want to buy another house,
[SPEAKER_01]: I can port my mortgage to that new house.
[SPEAKER_01]: So instead of selling my house, because a lot of people don't want to sell a house now where they have three, four percent mortgage and then buy another house and take a seven percent mortgage.
[SPEAKER_01]: So what you could do with the portability is I can sell my house and then keep that mortgage when I go buy another house.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, again, if I buy a bigger house, that's going to be problematic, but maybe I buy a smaller house.
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe I don't need to take out a second mortgage.
[SPEAKER_01]: I can sell my main house and downsize, and I can take my mortgage, which may be plenty of money to finance a smaller property, and I can just port that over, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: But doing this is definitely a good thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: for the homeowners that have these mortgages, because it will do two things for the homeowners.
[SPEAKER_01]: To the extent that they can allow the buyer to assume their mortgage, it will allow them to sell the house at a higher price than they could otherwise sell it if the buyer had to borrow more expensive money.
[SPEAKER_01]: or if they want to sell the house and buy something else, they now have the portability of the mortgage.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it gives them more flexibility to be able to downsize, to be able to move, so it's definitely good for the people who already own homes.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it's not good for the people who want to buy homes even though they can assume
[SPEAKER_01]: the seller's mortgage because that's going to be factored into the price because there's a low mortgage that you can assume.
[SPEAKER_01]: The seller's going to want more money for the house, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So home buyers never get helped by these government subsidies because all the subsidies do is result in a higher home price that look like the same thing with the tax deductible
[SPEAKER_01]: They benefit the people that already own them, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because if I want to buy a home now, because my mortgage interest is tax deductible, that's part of the price, part of what you're buying when you buy a house is you're buying the tax right off.
[SPEAKER_01]: When people do these rent versus own comparisons, they always compare the after tax cost of owning, because they don't get a tax right off for rent, but they do for mortgage interest, and they factored it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you could not write off the cost of your home,
[SPEAKER_01]: you would pay less for your home because people would not be willing to pay as much.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's the person that already owns the house that benefits from the fact that he could deduct his mortgage, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because he owns it now, but it doesn't help that would be home buyer.
[SPEAKER_01]: because he's just going to have to pay up to get that tax break.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's the same thing with the portability, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: The portability and the assumeability is going to help the people who currently own homes and have mortgages.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no question that they will be helped.
[SPEAKER_01]: But who will be hurt?
[SPEAKER_01]: Nobody asks those questions, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because if there's a winner,
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So now, if you're going to make a mortgage, my mortgage, if I've got a 3% mortgage, that's still got maybe 25 years left on it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I can now move that around, or I can have somebody assume it if I have all this extra benefits, that mortgage is more valuable to me.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that means it's now a bigger liability to the lender who is stuck with that paper.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you, if you wrote a mortgage a few years ago at 3%.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right, you're hoping that the guy sells his house.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that mortgage gets paid off.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you get out of jail.
[SPEAKER_01]: You are losing money every year on that mortgage.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're stuck with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was warning about this before it happened that this was eventually going to be a problem.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, all the banks that are holding these long-term mortgages, right, if they marked them the market, a lot of these banks would be in solvent.
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, they're not marking them the market.
[SPEAKER_01]: But they're hoping they're going to get repaid.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if the Trump administration does this, and transforms all these mortgages and makes them as sumable and portable, they may never get repaid.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of them are gonna be there until maturity.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in fact,
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe you could just sell your mortgage to somebody else, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Even if I, you know, I wouldn't, I wouldn't just sell my house.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you basically own the mortgage and it can go from property to property.
[SPEAKER_01]: If it's a 3% mortgage, nobody is ever going to pay it off, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: They are going to milk that thing until the very last payment.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that totally changes the game because all these lenders, they always assume, well, the life of a mortgage, even though it's a 30 year mortgage, we know, you know, from actual trade bulls, you know, typically within seven years, 10 years, the property gets sold, something happens, the mortgage gets paid off, and you know, I get my money back.
[SPEAKER_01]: now they're just going to have to say, okay, every single one of these mortgages is going to be held to maturity.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know who's going to be whole, who's going to be making the payments.
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, that's the other problem too for these banks.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not going to make any money.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, if they're just accepting or a portable mortgage, as opposed to underwriting a brand new mortgage, because they're stuck loaning money, right, at three percent, as opposed to writing a new mortgage,
[SPEAKER_01]: they don't want these mortgages.
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, what about the credit quality, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: Is the buyer, the new buyer?
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's say I loan my money to somebody.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now the new buyer is even less credit worthy than the original buyer.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, he may well be, I don't know how they're going to try to assure that the person who's buying the home is at least as credit worthy as the current owner of
[SPEAKER_01]: But the bigger risk is that this blows a beer hole in the balance sheets of all of the lenders.
[SPEAKER_01]: So much so that they may need bailouts from this alone.
[SPEAKER_01]: You may have to have a Federal Reserve bailout of lenders.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, of course, if all these mortgages are guaranteed by fanning and Freddie, that also hurts the value of fanning and Freddie, because fanning and Freddie has to guarantee these mortgages for the next 30 years.
[SPEAKER_01]: And even worse, of course, separately, if they have 50-year mortgages and those are portable and asumable over a 50-year time horizon.
[SPEAKER_01]: But forgetting about the 50-year mortgages, all those 30-year mortgages that have 25 years left on them or whatever, that Fanny and Freddie guarantees right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of those mortgages will become significantly more risky if they're asumable and portable.
[SPEAKER_01]: That means that they need Freddie are on the hook for much greater potential losses on these mortgages, which means the US taxpayer, of course, is on the hook right now with the guarantee.
[SPEAKER_01]: But all these things that they're doing, they're trying to loosen the the the rains.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're trying to make it easier for people to borrow money to overpay for homes, lower
[SPEAKER_01]: All of this is designed to keep air from coming out of the housing bubble.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I know that they obviously are getting desperate.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, coming up with all these gimmicks, but who do you know, I don't know how many of them they're actually going to implement, but in the meantime, just talking about all this stuff, uh, should be very nervous.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know why the, you know, the banks, those stocks aren't really going down.
[SPEAKER_01]: The financials are doing a right right now, banneyed, Freddy have gone down, tech stocks are going down.
[SPEAKER_01]: Crypto is going down.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this is all dangerous stuff for the financial sector, but all this is great for Golden Silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because what is all this easy money, lower lacks lending standards?
[SPEAKER_01]: This is all going to be more inflation.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to lead to more quantitative easing, money printing, a weaker dollar.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of this is bullish.
[SPEAKER_01]: for gold and silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why the prices are going up.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why they're going to keep going up.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in the meantime, the markets have not reacted.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's still shell shocked from that correction.
[SPEAKER_01]: And they haven't realized, like I just said, silver was only higher than it is right now on one day, one day.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was barely higher.
[SPEAKER_01]: yet you have all these stocks that are in bear markets.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because of that, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not going to be long.
[SPEAKER_01]: All those silver stocks I think are going to make new highs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Gold stocks, you know, some of them have made new highs.
[SPEAKER_01]: Barrett Gold made a new high.
[SPEAKER_01]: Their earnings came out on Monday.
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, blowout earnings, record earnings, record revenue, raise the dividend.
[SPEAKER_01]: The stocks
[SPEAKER_01]: In the last three days, and it's in a wreck, it's in a new high.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it took out a tie.
[SPEAKER_01]: I noticed I am gold, nothing stock we have in our, even in our value fund.
[SPEAKER_01]: That stock hit a new record high today, or now I'm of a record going back, you know, but 52 week high.
[SPEAKER_01]: So some of these stocks have taken out their highs, but the vast majority of stocks are still significantly below where they were when golden silver prices were not that much higher than they are right now, but it's just that fear entered the market.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's just taking a little bit of time for that to go away.
[SPEAKER_01]: People have a memory of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, that's what the markets are doing.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're trying to check the enthusiasm.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're trying to prevent people from getting too long, too leveraged by introducing some two-way risk in the market.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not going to go up every day, but you've got to be smart enough to recognize that this is a massive bull market.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is early.
[SPEAKER_01]: And any downturn is simply an opportunity to add to your positions.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's it.
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, I mean, you don't need to lever up.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're going to lever up at all, you've got to wait for the flesh out.
[SPEAKER_01]: You've got to wait for the big drop if you're going to do something on margin.
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't chase the market like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, if you've got a big pullback, you could take advantage of the fact that other people.
[SPEAKER_01]: are getting chased out of this, out of this market.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, the gold stocks are great investments.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think my gold fund, your Pacific gold fund, EPG-I-X is the no-load symbol by that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, there are some smaller gold stocks, too.
[SPEAKER_01]: Some even smaller than the ones we buy in my gold fund.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
[SPEAKER_01]: That we have those, you can get them from my new investment newsletter, strategic assets.
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got a premium newsletter at SHIFT sovereign.
[SPEAKER_01]: Everybody should be subscribed in the SHIFT sovereign because it's free, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: So, what do you got to lose there?
[SPEAKER_01]: But we do have a premium letter that has investment research, independent investment research, independent of, you know, my asset management company.
[SPEAKER_01]: but the analyst there that we have it shifts sovereign has come up with some huge winners.
[SPEAKER_01]: Some of these small stocks that have just gone up a lot, but some of these stocks, you know, one of them is still, I think two and a half times earnings, even though it's tripled or quadrupled, uh, pays a great dividend, uh, you know, these stocks are just under a lot of radars.
[SPEAKER_01]: But they're on the radar of the analyst at Schiff Sovereign.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you go over there, you can subscribe to strategic assets.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not even that much money.
[SPEAKER_01]: Forget what it costs and small.
[SPEAKER_01]: But you can, it's, you know, a monthly subscription.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can cancel whatever you want, get your money back.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no, there's like no questions asked.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're not satisfied.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just stop the, the subscription.
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, but we're looking specifically in that letter at these type of strategic assets.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not just gold, silver, and platinum, a stadium, uranium, all kinds of resources that are going to be strategic, uh, that I think represent good profit opportunities.
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of people look, as this spec money, all this hot money comes out of crypto, and then it comes out of AI, right, all this stuff, all these bubbles are going to deflate.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think it's going to go into mining.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think that that's the real story because there's actually tremendous value in that sector.
[SPEAKER_01]: But there's also going to be momentum.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so the people who are looking for momentum, that's where they're going to go, except now the momentum is real, because it's based on actual earnings.
[SPEAKER_01]: and actual earnings that are going to grow, that are going to grow substantially.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oil was down almost $2 a barrel today.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, these mining companies are just laughing all the way to the bank.
[SPEAKER_01]: Their costs are collapsing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Oil is, you know, the biggest cost they have, other than labor and their labor costs aren't even really rising that much.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because normally, when gold and silver prices are this strong, the dollar would be tanking against a Canadian dollar.
[SPEAKER_01]: or the Australian dollar or the South African brand or the Brazilian real or any of these currencies.
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's not.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
[SPEAKER_01]: The dollar's not tanking.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just gold is soaring.
[SPEAKER_01]: So their labor costs are in check.
[SPEAKER_01]: Their energy costs are low with fifty eight dollar oil and four hundred forty two hundred gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that is a huge differential.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the blowout earnings that we saw from Barric, that's just going to continue, not just for Barric, but everybody, all these, this company, and Wall Street is going to sit up and take notice, and you still got plenty of opportunity to buy these stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Meanwhile, just, you know,
[SPEAKER_01]: dividend paying stocks, foreign stocks continue to benefit, you know, my dividend payers fund, which is not a gold fund has a small allocation of gold stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's up now about 54% on the year, 54% people are talking about, oh, the big move in the US stock market, there is a much bigger move in foreign stock markets than hardly anybody is talking about.
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, this is not a one off thing in my opinion.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is
[SPEAKER_01]: the first year of many to come.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a major transition, a huge rotation that is going to start this huge bull market overseas that will spill into the emerging markets.
[SPEAKER_01]: The emerging markets haven't even really caught the bid yet.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's going to happen next year, which is why people should be looking at my emerging market fund.
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now, I think that's the sleeper.
[SPEAKER_01]: EPEGX, I think, but all the symbols
[SPEAKER_01]: But this is the trade, getting out of U.S. into foreign, getting out of tech, into value, getting out of crypto and Bitcoin, into gold and silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: These are the transitions that are taking place and the people who are stuck in these momentum plays don't even realize that the bottom is dropping out from under their feet.
[SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, that's it for today's show, don't forget I'm probably going to do another podcast on Friday on my YouTube channel at Shift Gold for Shift Gold Friday Market Wrap because I expect another two big days in the price of silver and gold between now and Friday so you don't want to miss that so make sure and go to the Shift Gold YouTube channel and sign up so you get
[SPEAKER_02]: Thanks for watching!