[SPEAKER_01]: Hello, and welcome to Baseball America's draft podcast.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Carlos Colaza, joined as always by Peter Flaherty, who is still a free man.
[SPEAKER_01]: He has not been drawn into any betting scandals surrounding his beloved Boston Celtics.
[SPEAKER_01]: How you doing, Peter?
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm doing well.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been a crazy time on the sports calendar just in general, obviously.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like between this past Saturday, so six days ago from when you're listening to this if you're listening to it on Friday, the Tony Vitello steam picked up and it culminated or crescendoed yesterday with him being announced is the next manager of the San Francisco Giants and an unprecedented move and now we've got all the the NBA stuff going on.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's made for a
[SPEAKER_00]: Quite the, quite the weak plus here in what is normally a nice kind of quiet more manageable time on the calendar, but hopefully, yeah, as we say world series, world series kicking off will hopefully allow us just to enjoy sports and not the kind of circus surrounding sports.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, the peak of the baseball calendar, excited for that, um, give any predictions for the world series, Peter, before we get into our amateur talk today.
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I was going to put you on the spot, but I, man.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hard to pick against the Dodgers, but I mean, I feel like the the blue jays bats have looked really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: This entire postseason.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like any of these series is it's not much more than a coin flip and either direction.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll lean towards the Dodgers, but I mean honestly part of me is.
[SPEAKER_01]: hoping the Dodgers don't win because I really do feel like the conversation around the Dodgers and around the financial structure of MLBE will be just insufferable.
[SPEAKER_01]: If the Dodgers win again, I want to my least favorite things in the game has become like the anti Dodgers complaining about baseball and like rich teams versus poor teams versus the fact that you know maybe the Dodgers are just doing everything really well.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm more than anything, just hoping for a competitive series.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hopefully we get seven games.
[SPEAKER_01]: That would be great.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'll all lean Dodgers though in terms of who I expect to win.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was going to say Dodgers and six, the Blue Jays have obviously been swinging it really well, but you know, the Dodgers have had, you know, they'll head into this weekend with, you know, everyone fully rested right at the World of Blue Jays too to an extent because, um, you know, they won that series on, what was it Monday night?
[SPEAKER_00]: So they had this week to kind of rest and gear up for it and they've also got a home field advantage throughout.
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, it's hard to pick against the Dodgers.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll say they win in six.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it'll be a competitive series.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it'll be a this team rolling by any stretch.
[SPEAKER_00]: But a very difficult to pick against them.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think that they're so deep and well-rounded on both sides of the baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: There aren't a lot of areas to poke holes in, uh, from a personnel standpoint with them outside of their bullpen.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're one, you know, if they were to lose this series and that the jays are able to.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, hard to say for me how much like the.
[SPEAKER_01]: the Dodgers pitching and bullpin in particular is like actually better now than we expected to be or if it's just coming off of a fairly middleing Brewers offensive showing in that series.
[SPEAKER_01]: So definitely think the Blue Jays bats will be more of a test for them.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that'll be fun.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no doubt regardless like you I just hope for a really competitive series and selfishly a seven game world series would be awesome.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.
[SPEAKER_01]: So for everyone out there watching, hope your favorite team wins.
[SPEAKER_01]: Hope the team you're rooting for wins and hope you enjoy the series as much as we
[SPEAKER_01]: are hoping to.
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's hop into the main segment for today's episode Peter.
[SPEAKER_01]: We have a pretty significant draft update on the site this week.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're listening this podcast and you've not seen the draft update, it went live on the site on Wednesday.
[SPEAKER_01]: So our top 100 for the 2026 class has got an entire revamp.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think probably the most significant,
[SPEAKER_01]: update of the calendar to this point we were consistently sort of updating these draft lists multiple years out whether it's separate high school rankings or college rankings or the combined list that start sort of the right before we get into the summer for any given draft year and then this update it's kind of our post summer showcase a little bit of fall information we also can can kind of add into this update but tons of movement based on
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of the bigger up-down swings were on the high school side, and I do think the summer circuit is more impactful for the high school demographic compared to the collegians.
[SPEAKER_01]: The college players are going to have an opportunity to just still move up and down in significant ways next spring, maybe more so than the high school class.
[SPEAKER_01]: at large.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I guess I'll just throw that to you Peter, like what is your kind of sense of the class right now after this update, after we went through the process, after kind of soliciting some feedback, like seeing players throughout the summer, or getting a taste of the high school class in Jupiter, where are you at with this class now?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because, I mean, leading up to the 2026 drafts, this was a very, very hyped draft class.
[SPEAKER_01]: How excited are you about it now?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I have long been a fan of of the 26 class.
[SPEAKER_00]: I alluded to it, you know, throughout the 2025 cycle at times, when appropriate.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I feel a little bit similar.
[SPEAKER_00]: If not like slightly less juice up about it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just as, you know, more stuff is unfolded.
[SPEAKER_00]: We've had the we know of the summer to reflect on.
[SPEAKER_00]: whether it be the Cape, USA, the Northwoods, and ACL, whatever it is.
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got some performances, nuggets trickling in about the fall, Jupiter, stuff is kind of slowly starting to come into focus.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a good group.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that at one one, and then it's only natural, it'll start at the top.
[SPEAKER_00]: It feels like,
[SPEAKER_00]: that at this point, it's probably rocks to lose.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not saying that, you know, it can't happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: I have, you know, a couple of guys in the back of my mind who could be, you know, quote unquote, dark horses to go first overall, but like rock is the clear leader in the clubhouse.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the debate for college SP1,
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll be a fun one to follow the quartet of or trio of high school short stops and just short stops in general after rock will also be a fun pecking order to sort out with great Emerson Tyler Spangler and Jacob Lombard at the prep level and then collegiate leave got Justin Lebron and Eric Becker and Tyler Bell soon thereafter so.
[SPEAKER_00]: As always there's premium town at the top there's town throughout the draft.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that the depth in the class to me stands out.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think that, you know, it's the case in any draft.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a matter of, you know, how well you evaluate and scout the guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: But like I think that there's going to be serious value in the middle rounds, at least just with where we stand right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, it's so far out and we've got the entire spring.
[SPEAKER_00]: But overall I'm excited about it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like it gives us an entirely new and fresh group of players to talk about and dive deep on.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that in and of itself is exciting.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think I agree with a lot of what you said.
[SPEAKER_01]: What stands out to me is I feel like at the top end, we had a chance to have like a really dynamic and we still do have a chance to have a really dynamic group of hitters from this summer, though, a lot of the most toolsy, athletic players really did not address their hit tool questions in a way that I think would have been really exciting to the industry and how, given us just a lot of confidence
[SPEAKER_01]: just have a chance to be really impact needle movers.
[SPEAKER_01]: We had a lot of down arrow feedback in this update for toolsy high school hitters in particular.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm thinking of guys like Jacob Lombard, who even at the very top, like it's not a huge drop for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: He goes from number three overall and our July update to number seven in this update.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I considered sliding him a little bit further than that, but I think just the tool set, the athleticism and the upside are
[SPEAKER_01]: too significant to drop them out of the top 10 quite yet, but he did have a lot of swing and miss issues on the circuit.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was not like a resounding, oh, this is a really polished pure hit tool that we're working with to other notable fallers from the top 10 range from our July update Brady Harris, the high school outfielder out of Florida.
[SPEAKER_01]: He goes from seven overall to 26.
[SPEAKER_01]: So again,
[SPEAKER_01]: top out for the first round to now kind of hanging on to first round status at the back.
[SPEAKER_01]: I talked to some scouts who like wonder if like the right right high school outfield profile with some hit questions is even a first round pick for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: Kevin Roberts Jr. similar rain to a six overall he falls to 27.
[SPEAKER_01]: So both those two kind of fell together from top half of the first round to back of the first round they're both
[SPEAKER_01]: really athletic, really toolsy, high school outfielders who are right right profiles.
[SPEAKER_01]: We just did not hit as well as scouts.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think wanted them to hit and then you look on the college side.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is maybe like just an indication that we had him ranked a little bit too high, but the feedback we got on Kaden Bogum poll, the Missouri State outfielder.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's another player who we had in the top 10 on our pre-summer list and we have him.
[SPEAKER_01]: in the 38 spot right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So outside of the first round, entirely.
[SPEAKER_01]: We just got a lot of feedback where Scott's sort of saying, hey, like,
[SPEAKER_01]: Kate and Bogum Paul does have really loud tools, but the contact question just make us wonder, is he gonna go in the same range or ahead of where players like J. Slavio let, where players like Spencer Jones went?
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think there are still a lot of players at the top to get excited about, but this class stands out to me as like, if you look at the most toolsy players, and maybe this is just the case generally, the most toolsy players are always,
[SPEAKER_01]: The players who come with it two questions because if that's not the case, you're just dealing with a lot of like bright harpers and badly Rushments and Bobby with juniors and that's just not too common, but I I will be curious to see like who are the players who are going to address some of the hit two questions and pair Really explosive upside in the profile.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that'll always be it's a fascinating kind of I guess story line or plot to follow like how ones hit tool develops because
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I'm sort of of the thinking and this adjusts on a player to player basis and you know, everyone is is different from one another, but like, you know, power obviously comes last.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you, I think that you can train to an extent anyone to hit for, for powered impact, whether it be training bats, speed, optimizing angles, whatever it is you want to do like you can develop.
[SPEAKER_00]: power to a certain extent with any hitter.
[SPEAKER_00]: But what you can't teach are innate hand-eye skills, pitch recognition skill.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you can refine a guy's ability to see shapes out of the hand.
[SPEAKER_00]: But like I think so much or at least a little bit of one's hit tool of barrel control and just general hitability and feel the hit is like you kind of either you got it or you don't.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, the
[SPEAKER_00]: Not to rag on the kid, but and because the tools with Kaden Bogun Polar so loud he's a 66 240 pound centerfielder with 70 grade raw power looks the part of a pro centerfielder like when you compare him to guys of a similar stature meeting height like Spencer Jones and J. Slavillette.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd go as far to say as he's a better athlete and moves better in centerfield than Jason did coming out of Texas A&M moves better than
[SPEAKER_00]: But like, I don't think you're going to get a whole lot out of the hit tool with Cain Bowgun pull.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think is overall contact rate this past spring was like 65 or 66% yeah that would be one of the lower rates you'll see like we typically do are on our top 200 preseason will have like just the.
[SPEAKER_01]: The x of velocity contact, chase rate data for hitters, and typically, do like bottom of the barrel, contact profiles of that player pool, like the lowest contact rates are in that sort of 60-ish contact percentage range.
[SPEAKER_01]: So kind of like among the lower numbers, you'll see of prominently ranked college hitters.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I mean, like with Bogon put like, it's just such a, and I got a lot of looks at him this summer, it's a swing to me that lacks adjustability.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a good example of kind of a groove swing like the nitros on or goes on, whatever you want to call it with him is so small.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like I just kind of wonder how much he's going to be able to tap into that premium raw impact on a consistent basis.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he played 27 games in the cap with K2 80 had 242 395 385 28 strike outs 22 walks need to have three hum runs and he's also just a
[SPEAKER_01]: career to 96 to 94 looks like career hitter 27.7% strikeout rate as a freshman in 24, 23.8% strikeout rate in 25.
[SPEAKER_01]: So once you're I do feel like that sort of 25 plus percent strikeout rate range for college hitters as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: start to get a little dicey for first round expectations and just first round hit rate.
[SPEAKER_01]: I guess T to be determined with both Spencer Jones and Vantanica, but those are two players who had these kind of significant contact questions in college and it's just it's just a hard
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a hard flaw to correct for in terms of your draft stock when so many teams are really selecting for context skill and zone contactability.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there are some teams who are willing to take more shots on dynamic athletes who have a lot of impact and come with some more misconceptions.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Orioles obviously have done this multiple times with profiles beyond vantanica, Yankees stand out as another team that kind of hit on it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't remember what Aaron judges.
[SPEAKER_01]: contact questions where when he was in college, but like they do tend to like these big exit velocity types and seem to take on a little bit more hit risk whereas there are a number of teams that I imagine.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if there's a specific magic number whether it's contact rate or strikeout rate, but some teams are just much less willing to take that sort of risk certainly inside the first round.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, it's it'll be like the tools alone with Bogum Pull if I'm a team sitting here like
[SPEAKER_00]: For me, just borrowing a change that I, like a material change that I'd be able to see in the spring, and again, I'd only be able to put so much stock into it, because for better worse, like the level of talent he's seeing on a week to week basis is not that of.
[SPEAKER_00]: of a hitter that's at Tennessee or Vanderbilt and like, you know, for better words, like that's that's a piece of the pie as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like he needs to get more aggressive, like he's kind of passive to a fall.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the chase rate was sub 20%, but, you know, he needs to start swinging the bat more.
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, we're fine to hit tool.
[SPEAKER_00]: The tools are the tools.
[SPEAKER_00]: just from a sheer loudness standpoint.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a great athlete.
[SPEAKER_00]: For me, he fits like where we have him ranked, like definitely more in the in the second round bucket than the first, like I would using a second round pick on him and kind of bedding on that upside is way more palatable than than using my first pick on someone of that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's take.
[SPEAKER_01]: let's let's pivot to some guys who are moving up it doesn't have to be a fully doom and glimp on yes you're harping on all the down here guys but there are a lot of players who moved up I will say just like from a macro perspective it did stand out some of you just how many high school pitchers were moving up in this update it is
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe one of the least appealing and least coveted profiles the teams are looking for inside the first round, but I think sometimes you kind of just have to take what's available when it comes to the draft and just how the different demographics and positions or either stronger we can to give in draft class we have.
[SPEAKER_01]: A number of notable up-erough prep arms, we have five high school pitchers now ranked inside the top 30.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you would have to go back to the 2021 draft to get a draft where there were actually five high school players selected inside that range.
[SPEAKER_01]: So probably bet on it not happening, but Carson Bowlemon, the left-end of pitcher out of South Carolina was a huge up-erough.
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... player on this update log in Schmidt left in a picture out of california big up arrow jense and her sqorn right in a picture out of california as well big up arrow all those guys are soon like pretty comfortably inside the first round for us right now and i think on the high school side you mentioned like a college pitching trio i think there is a high school left-handed trio that's going to be really interesting to sort of comparing contrast and and see how they line up but jio rohoss
[SPEAKER_01]: We have an 18th, he's a Florida-lefty Carson Bulman who I mentioned and then Logan Schmidt who I mentioned.
[SPEAKER_01]: We have all of them ranked inside this like 18 to 23 range.
[SPEAKER_01]: I talked to Scouts who had them lined up and kind of all sorts of different orders and other some people who prefer Bulman's.
[SPEAKER_01]: really advanced strike throwing ability, touch and feel, some scouts who just are enamored with rowhouses, arm speed and just pure arm talent.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then I talked to some scouts who think Logan Schmidt is like sort of a more advanced cam cam inity at the same age.
[SPEAKER_01]: And he obviously went pretty well and has looked pretty good in pro ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we have a really strong
[SPEAKER_01]: front end group of high school lieutenant pitchers and just that back and forth will be really fun to watch next spring.
[SPEAKER_01]: But are there any other up there guys you want to mention or anything want to mention on these three in particular?
[SPEAKER_00]: I was going to say that trio I'm happy you brought it up because that'll be another fun subplot to follow and you know all three have you know very exciting
[SPEAKER_00]: there it's a it's a very exciting group and then the other guy wanted to bring up he's not a lefty but Jensen first corn yeah and in northern California he really popped I know for you and for everybody else at area code this summer but you know I've been enamored with him ever since I think you dropped a message or a video of him in slack after his outing but he was
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe the single best area cause performance that I've ever seen.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was going to say three innings of results.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nine up, nine down with with nine k's and all swinging.
[SPEAKER_00]: Unreal and great body.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's six, seven, two, five, a lot of room to fill out like prototypical pictures frame.
[SPEAKER_00]: the what stood out to me in the video.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a kind of a smooth and under control operation for someone of his dad, or especially, um, fastball was 2 to 5 up to a 6 and then, you know, he's got a kind of a 2 plane slider.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, that's a,
[SPEAKER_00]: regular with generator 4M and then a more kind of firm change up that's a viable third pitch against lefty.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, it's when you start to bucket guys out.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's a starter's look.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's enough strikes.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot of upside to kind of dream on.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he checked all the boxes for me and he's also I believe all all the high school players change their commitment seemingly all the time and I want to make sure that like no one has committed between when we posted this and now, but I believe he is the top ranked uncommitted player in the class at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I imagine he's like a really appealing player for a for any college program.
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, when you're looking at high school right hand
[SPEAKER_01]: Those guys are a lot more likely to get to campus than high school hitters who are ranked in a similar range.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I imagine there are a lot of teams who are really excited about the possibility of adding him to the recruiting class.
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think he just checks all the boxes you're looking for in terms of a starting pitching package.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's athletic, body to dream on, stuff now, polished, deep pitchmakes, kinatech lefties and righties.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was pretty impressed with him just all around and now we have him ranked as.
[SPEAKER_01]: the number two high school writing in the class behind Colman Boarthwick, who I think just has a little more oomph right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I believe he's the fourth ranked overall right in a picture, fifth.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we got Liam Peterson, Cameron Flooky, Jackson Flore on the college side, Boarthwick, and then Hirschgorn.
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the next high school ready for the next round.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then just circling back to Bowlem and I, I,
[SPEAKER_00]: It'll be fascinating to kind of debate and sort through the, obviously the, the high school pitching debate and general, but especially bearing down on the crop of lefties.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know the trend is bullman's friend right now, but I mean, it seems like he fits into so many buckets of, you know, strikes, it's stuff.
[SPEAKER_00]: moves well in the mound, um, 64 left hander, um, and it's, you know, he's got multiple shapes of a breaking ball and, you know, the cyber blended times, but it's a, it's a legit four pitch max.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was dominant with USA.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, 17 strikeouts in just 11 innings and two starts.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I don't think he had only handful of blocks as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, both him and Joe Rojas pitch really well,
[SPEAKER_01]: bulletman was like if you had to pick a single individual best starter, it would have been him.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm kind of conflicted because I saw Gia Rojas at East Coast Pro and in terms of like how the stuff looked coming out of his hand, one of the more dynamic left-handed pictures I've seen at the amateur level and I think he's
[SPEAKER_01]: probably in a very short group of names that are thrown 97 miles per hour from the left side at that event.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, bring a barrier, Jackson Ferris, maybe Thomas Way, I don't remember if you touched 97 at that event in particular.
[SPEAKER_01]: But just some of the most...
[SPEAKER_01]: impressive natural arm strength I've seen from the left side, but he also gave up a lot of hits, and I think entered the summer with a reputation as this really advanced polish strike thrower, but it was a little bit more ratic, then scouts thought, and so if you're looking at the most polished pitcher in the class, I think most people would give the nod to bullum and certainly one just isolating for players in the top 50 or so on the board.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was going to say another belly to belly in the rankings, and mm-hmm.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in all that, they're kind of wedded together.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's really just pick your poison.
[SPEAKER_00]: But in just diving in, at least initially on both of them and kind of form my own opinion on them.
[SPEAKER_00]: I tend to lean slightly towards bullmen, but it'll be,
[SPEAKER_00]: it'll be interesting to follow for sure.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know another prominent riser in the position player group on the high school side was was Blake Bowen and I think that Blake Barrel Bowen, man.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that would be good.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the only person on earth who didn't get like a great look at him because all of the summer and even early in the fall with the baseball factory and under armor all American game down at Caminoards like it was you know Blake Bowen did this or you know Blake Bowen did that he was the best hitter in the event and he was he was outstanding over the summer and then like in Jupiter I kind of got a more
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what the word is for, but a more modest performance from Boeing.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm interested to hear your thoughts on them because I know I have my own coming out of the event, but I'm curious where you lie on them.
[SPEAKER_00]: I know he's, I don't know if he necessarily falls in cheeseball territory because he's ranked inside the top 15, but I know he's one of your favorites.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, sadly, he can't be a cheeseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we moved him up from 82 to 15th overall, like jumped right into the middle of the first round.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think in terms of like draft stock and trajectory on the board, he really reminds me of Gavin Feene from a year ago, different swings, different sort of defensive profiles.
[SPEAKER_01]: I actually prefer black bow and swing.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is a much more aesthetically pleasing swing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Gavin Feene's always just a little bit unusual, but it worked for him.
[SPEAKER_01]: But Bo and I think at this point it could make a really credible claim as having one of the more appealing hit power combinations in this class and I guess a lot of that will maybe depend on like
[SPEAKER_01]: When you saw him, if you really buy into the summer performance, because I think the power is hard to doubt, but for me, yeah, like you mentioned, it feels like every time I saw him, he was the most impressive hitter at the event he was at.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's an aggressive hitter, but when I saw him, he found the barrel consistently.
[SPEAKER_01]: It was hard contact to all fields.
[SPEAKER_01]: He is this like,
[SPEAKER_01]: tremendously strong, powerful athlete.
[SPEAKER_01]: Talk to a number of people who thought he could look like a free safety on a football field perfectly well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Six foot three, 250 pounds.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the body looks excellent and the video you guys sent from Jupiter, like it just a really impressive look, physically.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think most people will probably say he's a corner outfielder.
[SPEAKER_01]: In the future, but I think he does run well enough where he should get every opportunity to stick in center field and just be one of these new wave center fielders who have a lot more physicality than you typically associate with the position.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, just the impact, the overall hitting ability that he showed,
[SPEAKER_01]: The swing decisions were better this summer than they have been for him as an underclassman.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think entering this year, this summer, he was thought of as this kind of toolsy power speed combo and like what is the hit tool going to be and he's, I'd say, had one of the the better summers and just in terms of proving the hit tool.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm pretty bullish on Bowen at this point.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think the move on our board probably indicates that, but I'm curious, which piece of that I broke down, you would either be a little bit more skeptical of, or you just haven't seen yet.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, I don't necessarily know if I'm skeptical and it's more just like I haven't seen it yet, because I'm sure if I, you know, if I bore down on him over the course of the summer and you had caught him out of the area codes and then at the All American Game and then I rode that in a Jupiter, I'm sure that I would come out with a different sentiment,
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he was one of the guys that I was most excited to see, and down at the event, you know, even just, this is one of the reasons why in person looks are just so valuable.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, seeing him up close, like he does fit the description of in NFL free safety to it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean that in an incredibly enduring way.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like he's a, I don't know how to say it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like he's a freak like body wise.
[SPEAKER_00]: and just also kind of how he carries himself on the field as well again in a positive way.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, for me what stands out right away, obviously get the body, it's legit bad speed, it's clear raw power.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he was missing balls and like he caught a couple of balls deep and he was still able to like muscle it out to the warning track to the opposite field.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like his
[SPEAKER_00]: throughout the entire event, but he was still muscleing balls to deeper parts of the park.
[SPEAKER_00]: So like the strength, that speed, and power slash impact, combination is, there's no doubt in that.
[SPEAKER_00]: What I am kind of more curious about is the hit tool.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because again, like in my look, the timing was off.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, especially with secondary stuff, he was kind of getting out and around pitches to a handful of rollovers, which is what I saw, I think he's definitely a corner outfielder like he runs well when he's underway.
[SPEAKER_00]: The arm strength is clear like it's a plus arm for me.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that he profiles best in right field.
[SPEAKER_00]: So like the the biggest question for me is like what the hit tool
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, high end impact consistently on a game-to-game basis, which is what he showed over the summer and in the fall at these major events.
[SPEAKER_00]: So like, it's unfair to just base my entire opinion of a player.
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think through looks like what you saw is really valuable to see.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think there are like, I wouldn't say Blake Bowen right now is this sort of like hyper advanced pure hitter in the sort of
[SPEAKER_01]: tier of like a max clerk or walker jinks, Jenkins or Kevin McGonagall, like I do think there's going to be some variants in like wear teams and individual scouts are going to have him bucketed.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I would imagine there are some people who probably have just similar questions on the hit tool and are a little bit more like unclear on exactly like is it a is it a 50 is it like a fringy hit tool?
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be more power is you got it's going to happen above average it's tool.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I think that that it is going to have a lot of variation depending on who you're
[SPEAKER_01]: Useful to hear you talk through it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, again, we're only talking about four to four to five plus games.
[SPEAKER_00]: However many of the canes played down in Jupiter.
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a it's a crumb of a cookie that we're talking about But I didn't see him catch any balls flush on the barrel.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mentioned the near misses that he was still able to
[SPEAKER_00]: to get out to deep parts of the yard.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he didn't catch anything flush.
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a tough weekend.
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought the timing was off.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think for me, at least for now, he profiles kind of as a power overhit, corner out, feel there with tools that you can be excited about.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that,
[SPEAKER_00]: Coming out of the summer obviously where he's a ton of momentum and still does, I might be on the lower end of the spectrum with where I'd have him slotted.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if I'd use a top half of the first round pick on him, but again, like there is a ton to like with Bowen.
[SPEAKER_00]: and not to jump the gunner or switch subjects.
[SPEAKER_01]: Take us, take us wherever.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the one guy that, you know, and you tip me off to him heading into the event, you're like, hey, I think you're really going to like Trevor Condon and you somehow sold it short because I I came out of it, you know, he was one of my favorite position players I saw down there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like he is the prototypical example of a player who like, it is impossible to watch him play and go away from the yard, not like just liking him, like the play style is so endearing.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was looking forward to every time I got to see him play, I came away.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is, again, Georgia High School Outfielder Trevor Condon committed to Tennessee.
[SPEAKER_01]: He moved from off our top 100 to 37 on the board.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I mean, he was, he was, he was excellent in down in Jupiter.
[SPEAKER_00]: He was one of the better if not the best performer for the Detroit Tigers, USA Prime, national team, which by the way is absolutely loaded.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was shocked that they didn't win the event, but in any event, like, there's so much to like from, not only a tool standpoint, but kind of the how he does it,
[SPEAKER_00]: it's a really explosive in twitchy operation.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a ton of bats feed, feel for the barrel with high level bat to ball skills.
[SPEAKER_00]: You can troll the zone well in my look in the swing decisions.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're also polished.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's good because I think he's been like some of the nitpicking critiques of him are like he's not quite as advanced swing decision-wise as like a slater to burn from me.
[SPEAKER_01]: I go and he is getting pocketed in the sort of
[SPEAKER_01]: Debrun, slight cauldwell, Dylan head sort of tier of players and those guys all went and like the 29 to 40 ish range where we have called well But I'm glad to hear the swing decisions were really good.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I get it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, go ahead.
[SPEAKER_01]: Then I got it.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was going to say, I get it with the Debron parallels being drawn like they're obviously some similarities and in my look, obviously they played for the same team in Jupiter.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, that only enhances it a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: Debron is obviously kind of that more like barrel-chested stront naturally strong looking kid.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that he was a better defender at this stage than
[SPEAKER_00]: The bronze defense really stood out to me in Jupiter.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I don't think he performed.
[SPEAKER_00]: all that well with the stick, but like, you know, something you got to weed through the performance at times, but at any event, like the routes for me were unbelievably crisp with slater.
[SPEAKER_00]: The first step was ultra quick, like with condon, his speed and athleticism, he covers a ton of ground from gap to gap in in center field, but there were a couple of
[SPEAKER_00]: So like, I probably, you know, we were to compare slater to Trevor Con and I'm a real fan of Trevor, I just think at that at this point in last year's cycle, I probably like to run a little bit better.
[SPEAKER_00]: But he had the kind of tended to hit the ball on the ground.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd like to see some of the ground balls turning the line drives.
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's a hit over power profile with a little bit of thumb to the pull side.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, there's real bad speed there and he gets out of the box.
[SPEAKER_00]: unbelievably quick.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's better than any player that I think I've ever seen in terms of just how aggressive he is to like get on his horse and get out of the box and get down the line.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I think he is comfortably a 70 grade runner, but you will regularly get top end.
[SPEAKER_01]: run grades from home in the first just because of how quickly it comes out like he probably Joe breaks a lot of the time because he's so ready to run but like just his willingness to run I've never seen a low effort run from him even on like a routine ground balls where he's probably out like he constantly busts it and I think that it's just such an endearing part of his game to me.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, it was like, whoa, watching him get out of the box.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if he can be sure, it pres routes a little bit.
[SPEAKER_00]: Just take a more efficient and crisp path to the baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd be going to chance to be an impact defender and center.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think with him, and this is what I got with Slater as well, the intangibles with Condon are such a nice cherry on top to the body of work.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a
[SPEAKER_00]: Really, he's going to an advanced baseball sense.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's still second on a really good dirt ball read.
[SPEAKER_00]: He swiped third on a well-executed shuffle lead, super, super high motor, which you referred to.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, he plays with his hair on fire.
[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't take a pitch off.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, you always hear him talking and encouraging his teammates.
[SPEAKER_00]: He just brings the juice.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, kind of like, the energizer bunny and a throwback player in that sense.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, it is so clear he loves to play the game.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's, he's just very fun to watch.
[SPEAKER_00]: So first round for him is maybe a little rich.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I would happily take him in the second or in the second or third round, like he fits in the two to three bucket.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're good looking him to the third at this point, I think, but.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I would be surprised if that happens, but would happily stack him in the second round.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then also on his team, Connor Komo, I know, is a steady riser, caught him good, down in Jupiter as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's all go ahead.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, let's, I was about to say, like, to wrap here, let's talk about, and I know you mentioned, some of you have some dark horse candidates who could maybe potentially challenge rock.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm curious, who like your, your top non-rock Chalowski candidate is, that you think has a chance to be.
[SPEAKER_01]: 1-1 because I've got one guy I'm looking at on our board that's ranked pretty well.
[SPEAKER_01]: He moved up a little bit and I'm really excited to see what his spring is like to see if he can challenge rock for that but I'm curious if you had to pick one player and not even necessarily to say oh he's going to come out and be the 1-1 but just a player that you think could come out next spring and vote to the very top of the draft board.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I don't know how much of a dark horse he is because he's currently ranked 8th on the, okay, that's mine.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're both we're both looking down the barrel at TCU Alfield or saw your Shaw Snyder and I think, I mean, I think he's a super exciting candidate for this because.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll let you go first, but yeah, I'm glad I'm glad to run the same guy here.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Jacob and I talked about it a little bit and again, I don't know how much of a dark horse he is, but I think just the with the sentiment sort of being rock and then everyone else he is a dark horse in that sense, a big 12 freshman of the year was outstanding last year for TCU and up hitting 350 led the nation with 10 triples, 11 homers like
[SPEAKER_00]: fits the description of tooled out tool shed to a tee tons of bats bead plus rock power, especially to the pull side plus arm plus runner like centerfeeler by trading might profile best in a corner out field spot long term but you know he's got a plus he's got a plus arm
[SPEAKER_00]: I think like so many of the players that we talk about and will talk about, if you could pinpoint a question mark in his game, it might be his hit tool.
[SPEAKER_00]: But last year, he flashed above average bat to ball skills, especially on pitches in the strike zone.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was encouraged by that because that was one of the bigger question marks with him coming at a high school.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, it's just
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got the ability to impact the game in a number of different ways, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you could make a run for it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, for me, it's just that athleticism and that really well-rounded toolset is super enticing.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he had such a unique year just in terms of like the extra-based hit results.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had 350, 426, 50 as a freshman for TCU.
[SPEAKER_01]: He had 11 homeruns, he had 10 triples, he had 13 doubles, he had 10 stolen bases.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a very, very short list of college players, historically, who have had double digits in all of those categories.
[SPEAKER_01]: And let alone to do it as a freshman, I think is just,
[SPEAKER_01]: massively impressive.
[SPEAKER_01]: I do wonder like what the quality of the hit tool is going to be, what the quality of the swing decisions are going to be.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he struck out less than you might expect, just given the pure contact skills.
[SPEAKER_01]: He showed and I would like to see him get a little bit more selective, showing ability to get on base via the walk a little bit more frequently.
[SPEAKER_01]: But as a draft eligible sophomore, I think he's going to be really interesting because he's just
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and already he's exceeded my expectations for what the pure hit tool is going to be in college based on what I saw of him as a high school or so if he can continue to make strides there in that hitting department.
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, again, I think it's going to be really hard to top just rocks defensive profile and overall tools, but if there's a player in the class that that can at least rival it or you can point to and say okay he's he's the next up guy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think straw center has a real chance to do that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, if you can become a little bit less of a free swimmer, like you said, and add a coat of polish to the just the hit tool and hit ability in general, I think you chased at a 31% overall clip last year, obviously didn't hinder the production.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think that'll.
[SPEAKER_00]: only enhanced what he's able to do for a production standpoint.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you dig in a little bit under the hood at the bad at ball that, it's really impressive.
[SPEAKER_00]: The 90th percentile eggs of velocity of 108.3 hard hit rate of over 50% and he was consistently on the barrel and in generating quality contacts.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's a ton of like across the board.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot of high end tools.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a name to circle and watch closely as we go through the cycle.
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, well, I think that's going to have to wrap it for us today.
[SPEAKER_01]: Always fun to talk through the draft, especially on such a big week like this from Peter.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you guys want the full breakdown on the entirety of the 2026 class, we've got refreshed reports on all these players.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can see the full movement of today's board or this week's board, all the new additions to the 100, all the players who dropped out, the biggest risers, the biggest fallers.
[SPEAKER_01]: see the rationale for a lot of this movement on the board in addition to the list itself with the scanning reports at baseballmerica.com and as always I'll just thank you guys for supporting VA and allowing us to do this work and cover the draft full time and come to you pretty regularly on the podcast to talk about these players.
[SPEAKER_01]: We really really appreciate the support and couldn't do it without you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Peter, I'll give you the final work here.
[SPEAKER_00]: You sum it up best.
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's say, uh, also pre-order, uh, the 2026 prospect tan book and baseball America Almanac obviously helps enable us to do what we're able to do.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it also makes us a great gift.
[SPEAKER_00]: Whether it's a little to me from me gift for yourself or a family member or friend who loves baseball, um, there is really nothing better or more in depth, um,
[SPEAKER_00]: than anything that we do than the prospect handbook and all and I can especially the handbook.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I believe you need to possibly want as in there.
[SPEAKER_01]: I believe if you pre-order through us, you will get access to the prospect handbook via PDF.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think last year that came out on December 23rd.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's like the earliest you've ever had access to the prospect handbook.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you were worried about getting a gift that you won't actually have on Christmas,
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you'll probably have the digital version at the very least around that time.
[SPEAKER_01]: So definitely look into pre-ordering through us directly if you're interested in the Prospect Handbook.
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, four Peter, I'm Carlos.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you guys for listening.
[SPEAKER_01]: So along you're ready.