[SPEAKER_03]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com, and for our podcast subscribers, this is invest talk, independent thinking, shared success.
[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, serving clients throughout the United States.
[SPEAKER_03]: Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer, Financial Advisor, Justin Klein.
[SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to investors.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is our Monday, October 20th, 2025.
[SPEAKER_01]: Dician, and there's nothing I can now.
[SPEAKER_01]: The fall season is in full swing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Summer is behind us and we are, I know we're ready for fall here.
[SPEAKER_01]: And Thanksgiving or Thanksgiving.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanksgiving, yes, but a little over month away.
[SPEAKER_01]: Halloween just 11 days away.
[SPEAKER_01]: So this fourth quarter is already moving by pretty fast.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're already into earnings season as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're starting to get a lot of data there when it comes to third quarter earnings.
[SPEAKER_01]: And our job here is to unpack it all for you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Giving you perspective of where the opportunities and risks are.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thus for this hour is always about answering your finance and investment questions and bringing you data and perspectives that you can make better decisions with your money.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's difficult.
[SPEAKER_01]: In this headline, driven social media, driven ecosystem that we all live in some way, shape or form.
[SPEAKER_01]: and that can distract us from the realities on the ground.
[SPEAKER_01]: But our job is to bring you back, bring you back to where the middle is.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, your biases and your motions can bring you in all different directions.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's usually not right on target.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's dragging you away from the right target.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so our job is to refocus you each and every weekday.
[SPEAKER_01]: So in just a bit, we'll talk about today's Mark performance and run down the show topics for the hour, but first let's tackle this color question now.
[SPEAKER_07]: Hi everyone, I do from Pittsburgh.
[SPEAKER_07]: Thanks guys for excellent podcasts.
[SPEAKER_07]: I always enjoy listening to you.
[SPEAKER_07]: I'm calling about Picker P-O-O-L tool corp.
[SPEAKER_07]: Looking forward to you here and what you think.
[SPEAKER_07]: Thanks.
[SPEAKER_01]: E-O-O-L, and this is a company as you would imagine with a ticker symbol, and calling full court, they operate 448 pool equipment and supply centers in North, South, North and South America, and you grew up, okay, and this is a name that did very well during the pandemic.
[SPEAKER_01]: People were building pools, they were trying to, yeah, stay outside more.
[SPEAKER_01]: They were able to borrow money to make remodeled their house and put it in a pool, et cetera.
[SPEAKER_01]: So earnings went from $5.83 to $20.19 all the way to $18.43 in 2022.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's certainly come down last year at $11.7 this year, $10.85.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's been in a earnings downtrend and the stocks been to downtrend ever since 2021 as well and it peaked out at $575 or so somewhere on there.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's at $294.
[SPEAKER_01]: So relative strength 17, not great.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you look at based on forward looking earnings of $11, it's still about a 20 high 20s multiple.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's pretty high.
[SPEAKER_01]: for a name that has very slow growth.
[SPEAKER_01]: There are supposed to get back to growth.
[SPEAKER_01]: This next four quarters, but it's still modest, only mid-Singled digits.
[SPEAKER_01]: What are you going to pay for a company that's growing about the rate of the overall economy?
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably more of a market multiple.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the good thing here is they do have good cash flow, very solid profitability about 30% return equity.
[SPEAKER_01]: Although that has come down from its recent high.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's a bit of a worry.
[SPEAKER_01]: But overall, I like the business.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just, I'm not paying this multiple and you look at the chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, when something's in a downtrend like this, coming, especially coming off of record earnings,
[SPEAKER_01]: record multiple that's trading at and there's no real big crash.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just kind of a slow slog downward.
[SPEAKER_01]: What will eventually happen is
[SPEAKER_01]: Investors will give up.
[SPEAKER_01]: Though get tired of waiting for it to turn around and then you'll get a final capitulation on high volume and that will usually set up a good buying entry point.
[SPEAKER_01]: Problem is, you're not really seeing that yet.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's still just in that slow grind lower.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I see no reason to jump in front of this.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only a name to have on the watchless because of that good balance sheet,
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm gonna give you, yeah, I think this is headed down to 225.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's an area that I think makes sense from a fundamental standpoint.
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's good support there.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of where it broke out back in, what was this, 2020?
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's right, by it, through 25.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now's gonna take a live call, Jerick from Canada once talked about silver.
[SPEAKER_04]: All right, Justin, how you doing?
[SPEAKER_01]: Doing pretty well.
[SPEAKER_04]: You own some silver?
[SPEAKER_04]: I do have a few positions and as you've seen the silver prices, it's on a tear.
[SPEAKER_04]: So it's one of the conversations about that, like what's your opinion on this recent price action?
[SPEAKER_04]: What do you see for like short-medium long-term forecasts?
[SPEAKER_04]: I know it's kind of 50% industrial metal and tied to the economy, but also, you know, it could be part of
[SPEAKER_04]: like a debasement kind of a trade and a lot of stuff going on in London with the LBMA and backwardization or backward backwardies backwardation backwardation yeah yeah so like what's your take on this and I'm like I got in April 24 and wrote up some really good highs and I probably have like a you know three to five year kind of time frame
[SPEAKER_04]: kind of invested in a lot of like miners and stuff like that, so I know they have cycles and things like that, right?
[SPEAKER_04]: But yeah, what's your take on with that?
[SPEAKER_01]: I still think there's room to run on gold and silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now they are a bit overbought now.
[SPEAKER_01]: There, this is kind of reminds me of what I saw.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is even more intense than we saw back in April when you saw gold on the paper of barons and it kind of went through a consolidation period.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you're seeing that even more intense after this recent run.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's a lot of near-term speculation, a lot of what I call weak hands, and when you get those weak hands chasing the recent move, you know, a 10 to 20% pullback in a lot of these names for those people, it's going to feel like the end of the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because they have no sense of what type of volatility these type of names have.
[SPEAKER_01]: 20% pullback and especially in the miners, silver or gold miners, that's that ain't nothing.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's that's that's a that's a regular the Tuesday, you know, but for new precious metal investors, it's gonna feel like the end of the world and they're going to probably get shaken out in those events.
[SPEAKER_01]: and i think you are probably approaching something like that but i still think i still bullish through next year uh and and and i think gold goes to at least five probably 6,000 an ounce when this cycle is uh uh done now we're to silver end up you know it tends to go up in concert
[SPEAKER_01]: However, if I'm leaning one way or the other, if gold versus silver, I'm still leaning gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: Why?
[SPEAKER_01]: Because there is that consistent demand from central banks around the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: And gold just historically has a more solid place in the monetary system over the long term.
[SPEAKER_01]: So over kind of comes and goes and it's it's it's it's gold a little cousin and it does have some like you said some industrial application so there can be some Some potential declining demand if the economy continues to kind of meander like it's been recently.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I still like both I will say that I think everyone should have some exposure to both but I'm still leaning on gold as well as I would expect a
[SPEAKER_01]: to me still is a by the depth type of environments to operate in.
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, and with that gold versus silver kind of allocation, like if that gold to silver ratio breaks down,
[SPEAKER_04]: Like, that would not, would that not be quite beneficial for, for silver?
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, of course, it would, it would, yeah, I mean, that's, that's the point of the ratio, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: If that ratio breaks down, I mean, silver's outperforming gold, and it has as of the last month or so.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you zoom out, really this entire cycle, gold's been really outperforming, pull up a longer term chart here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so gold has just been on a on a tear and I still think it will continue to outperform.
[SPEAKER_01]: But can't have bouts where silver does outperform over the last like over the last couple months.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would hold both.
[SPEAKER_01]: There I'm moving to a break.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's very likely you'll probably be making several important investment decisions here in the fourth quarter.
[SPEAKER_01]: Before you do, I recommend you look at our new comprehensive 2025 Q4 economic and market outlook report.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is a free read and it's posted now at Invest Talk.com.
[SPEAKER_01]: My phone lines are open waiting for you right now at 8.99 in Shard.
[SPEAKER_09]: The prosperous future you envision for yourself and your family will not happen without strategic planning and definitive action.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's got a bright-end San Mateo looking at Roku.
[SPEAKER_07]: And I wanted you to take on the technical picture for the unprepared investor.
[SPEAKER_09]: Market volatility around the world demonstrates risk.
[SPEAKER_09]: but opportunities wait for no one and now maybe the best time in years to invest wisely to invest strategically.
[SPEAKER_09]: What I would do is keep saving and look for other opportunities.
[SPEAKER_09]: But how can you decide what sectors to avoid?
[SPEAKER_09]: Which stocks to buy and what might be the best price point?
[SPEAKER_09]: I'm new to investing in my friend Wesley recommend your podcast a year ago.
[SPEAKER_09]: The next decisive step on your path to financial freedom begins with a Spotify search for Invest Talk.
[SPEAKER_09]: Listen live or download the free podcast.
[SPEAKER_02]: Justin Klein is here and he's ready with answers to your
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we have a lot of ground to cover over the next 40 minutes or so in our main focus point, he's about how asset tokenization is revolutionsizing global finance and everyone's heard of Bitcoin, but the underlying technology blockchain, I think has will have in the long run a bigger impact on the global economy, making it easier to invest.
[SPEAKER_01]: do so with more transparency and make it more accessible to everyone around the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to look at that and kind of zoom out on how markets are likely to evolve over the next decade or two, especially when it comes to digitizing assets.
[SPEAKER_01]: In addition, we'll talk about some other other topics.
[SPEAKER_01]: unprecedented.
[SPEAKER_01]: Typically, the correlation between the two is zero.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they don't really have much, they don't move together in general.
[SPEAKER_01]: But right now they are.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll talk about why that might be.
[SPEAKER_01]: Also, can financial literacy improve GDP growth?
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll look at some data that is saying that.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then lastly, if we have time, we'll talk about US exceptionalism.
[SPEAKER_01]: and is the leadership of US equities starting to flip to more of a world allocation.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll talk about that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Both of voice bank calls are about AI, a American financial group, excuse me, AFG, and then Transulta Corp T, AC, and then we have some questions that came in via the comment section over on our YouTube channel as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course I welcome your finance and move questions and investment questions right now at 8-899 chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: We love your live calls, and that's why we are going to talk with Sid in North Carolina.
[SPEAKER_05]: He's asking about M-U-S-A.
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I have seen this stock was quite going well between 2018 all the way to last year.
[SPEAKER_05]: The graph looks pretty healthy and suddenly I don't know what happened this year.
[SPEAKER_05]: So I don't have this position, but this year I could see that it's almost down from 550 to
[SPEAKER_05]: It's in my radar, is it a good time to buy this kind of the name or you think you should ignore.
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you very much, thank you very much.
[SPEAKER_01]: Never I'm looking at Murphy USA and the USA is the symbol and about $7 billion market cap and they they have about 1700.
[SPEAKER_01]: fuel stations and convenience stores throughout 27 states in the US.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was a name that was growing dramatically.
[SPEAKER_01]: Once again, $20, $19, $4.86 in earnings, and then $28, $10, $20, $20, $22, as people are getting out moving, traveling,
[SPEAKER_01]: a lot of excess money sent to people and they were buying stuff at convenience stores and that has reversed in a big way.
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, earnings are now, so it's only $23.67 this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's in a downtrend.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't see any major support right now.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not a name that I would be buying because the technicals are just too poor.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like the business, but until there's some sort of
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're going to break, come here, ready to tackle your questions at 888-99-sharp.
[SPEAKER_02]: In Vestock Innovators, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero, Interview Company Leaders, Founders, and Visionaries.
[SPEAKER_02]: So head over to the In Vestock YouTube channel and look for In Vestock Innovators.
[SPEAKER_01]: $8.99 chart, $8.9924278.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I get through and ask your question on today's show.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I get a quick look at the markets today.
[SPEAKER_01]: We had a nice solid update on optimism around the US and China trade negotiations, President Trump, express them optimism.
[SPEAKER_01]: market like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously there's still a lot up in the air about nine days away.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think a 29th is when that meeting is supposed to happen in South Korea.
[SPEAKER_01]: And really we don't know that.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is probably going as as you've seen, they're probably going to get a couple days from now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe a bad tweet on it who knows.
[SPEAKER_01]: But that certainly brought life to markets after the sell off last week.
[SPEAKER_01]: Treasuries were a bit stronger.
[SPEAKER_01]: Across the curve with rates down a little bit dollar index was a 0.2% gold finished up three quarters a three and a half percent and new all-time high once again Bitcoin at 4.1% WTI crude was down 0.2%.
[SPEAKER_01]: You have the S&P up a little over 1% the NASDAQ up about 1.4% On the day small caps Russell 2000 up nearly 2% on the day and of the big movers get apple up 4%
[SPEAKER_01]: but names like NVIDIA and Broadcom were down.
[SPEAKER_01]: But across the board, some pretty nice strength.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now let's go talk to Richard in Santa Clarita, I want to talk about AT&T.
[SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, I just wanted to ask you about AT&T.
[SPEAKER_08]: Go to that price of about 21, it's up to about 26, right now.
[SPEAKER_08]: It's been as high as 28, maybe close 29.
[SPEAKER_08]: pays you know a foreign quarter percent dividend.
[SPEAKER_08]: Just wondering, remember Steve, you always say AT&T and Verizon, you know, you buy those not for the growth.
[SPEAKER_08]: We're going to be an AT&T, you know, get as low as, you know, 19, 18, 17, and it's going to go maybe as high as 30.
[SPEAKER_08]: It's not going to go super high.
[SPEAKER_08]: It's not going to go super low.
[SPEAKER_08]: I know they have a lot of debt.
[SPEAKER_08]: They spun off the Warner Brothers discovery a while back, which was pretty good move.
[SPEAKER_08]: But given that scenario and giving how telecommunications are, if it goes up in that range, good to sell it.
[SPEAKER_08]: And maybe at some point, if you get it again, you get it later on when it comes down.
[SPEAKER_08]: tends to have that range, you know, I think, and I'm not so sure that being in telecommunications right now is the best sector to be in.
[SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, I agree with this.
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree with that.
[SPEAKER_08]: Get rid of it, disappoint.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, frankly, I agree with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you just look at the trailing 15 year returns, you're talking about 4.7% annualized.
[SPEAKER_01]: Not that great.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, one of the big issues with AT&T and Verizon is that they have a lot of debt.
[SPEAKER_01]: And one of the reasons why, so first off, when rates go up on debt, their carrying cost go up.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's why this went down so dramatically when rates started to rise.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, went from the low 20s all the way to the low over on 14.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's rally back.
[SPEAKER_01]: as rates have moderated a little bit, but still I think we're in a longer term uptrend when it comes to rates, and they're also losing market share.
[SPEAKER_01]: So their team mobile is taking share, and it's just a very slow growth business and it's actually negative growth.
[SPEAKER_01]: Last year, earnings were down 10%.
[SPEAKER_01]: This year, earnings will be down 5%.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now next year, earnings are supposed to bounce back, but those estimates are coming down as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I just see the, remember, there's opportunity cost with this capital.
[SPEAKER_01]: What are you going to do with it?
[SPEAKER_01]: And to be honest, I rather own fixed income, you know, if you want limited upside, I want also limited downside.
[SPEAKER_01]: And in a name like this, if it's not operating properly, you know, that level of debt could spiral into bankruptcy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now I'm not predicting that,
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: And at least in a bond, bankruptcy, you're getting 40 to 60 cents on your dollar back.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, you're limiting your upside, but like you said, 18 to you, there's not a whole lot of upside either, because there's little to no growth.
[SPEAKER_01]: and they're losing market share and they have a lot of debt and it's a very mature market that they're operating in.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're talking about telecom exposure, you know, we looked at the telecom space recently and we ended up buying a foreign name as and before we have the three major ones, we like team mobile the most, but the better opportunities were overseas.
[SPEAKER_01]: had bloated balance sheets and losing market share and just weren't that exciting and people get enamored with that dividend, but that's not where we're looking at.
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't we care about the dividend to a degree, but it's very low on our priority list.
[SPEAKER_01]: We're looking at profitability.
[SPEAKER_01]: And frankly, profitability isn't.
[SPEAKER_01]: horrible, but it's not great either.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I see no reason no need, TNT, I would move on and find something better.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now I'm still gonna get to you today's focus point.
[SPEAKER_01]: So hang on in tomorrow.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm the next investor talk, we'll look into the topic.
[SPEAKER_01]: When and how to change financial advisors.
[SPEAKER_01]: who will provide a comprehensive guide for investors so that they can access their current financial advice.
[SPEAKER_01]: Four men's communication skills, fee structure, and outline the necessary steps for a smoothing apply to transition, who knew wealth management professional.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's story tomorrow, but for now I'm Justin Klein and ready to take your calls at 8 8-8-99 chart.
[SPEAKER_02]: 2025 rolls on, and you've got finance and investment questions for Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.
[SPEAKER_02]: Call in Vestark 888-99, chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about tokenization and how it's going to revenue, revolutionize global finance.
[SPEAKER_01]: And
[SPEAKER_01]: This is, I think, an under-appreciated aspect of the crypto industry, because everyone's just vote, it's been bastardized.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all about number go up, making money, yellow options, leverage,
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, the microstrategy of the world, and it's just all about what speculation.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's it.
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you zoom out and you say, why was this created?
[SPEAKER_01]: Why did this come to be so much of those that ethos has been lost to rampant speculators and fraudsters to be honest with you?
[SPEAKER_01]: But the reason why I think the whole ego system will endure is because there are some good foundations to bring a financial system to the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think eventually we will get there but it's gonna take a lot of time.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, one of the core bed rocks of having the world operate on a crypto ecosystem
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not just about cryptocurrencies and moving value in that way.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's what the whole idea is, right, easily transmit value from one person and what entity to another.
[SPEAKER_01]: But tokenization can make so many aspects of traditional finance a lot easier, cheaper, more efficient.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the Genius Act really focused on
[SPEAKER_01]: the stablecoins, which is just basically a money market account for the cryptocurrency.
[SPEAKER_01]: Environment, so think of a money market account where you can take that money and just go buy stocks.
[SPEAKER_01]: Go buy a bond, go buy a ETF, stable coins are, okay, now we can go buy other cryptocurrencies, but what about other digital assets?
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what digitization and tokenization of actual real world assets will eventually be about.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's about leveraging the blockchain technology to digitize and fractionalize everything in the real world.
[SPEAKER_01]: Think of stocks, bonds, real estate, whatever it is, gold, silver, et cetera.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is where the true transformation of the economy can really happen.
[SPEAKER_01]: It will create openness of ownership to assets that were previously very difficult to gain access to.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now that brings risks,
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's for the regulators to figure out.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not just about us here in the U.S. or developed worlds.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's about merging markets as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Because think of,
[SPEAKER_01]: those people that they weren't in the hard-wired game.
[SPEAKER_01]: They came to the digital age with a smartphone, with their main connection to the world, via their cellulion network.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so they're used to this and in many countries, they're very used to moving money via their phones.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so now it's gonna be more than just moving money.
[SPEAKER_01]: the system to do is to make everything programmable, traceable, and easily transferable from one person to the next.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you can buy portions of an asset as opposed to the entire asset, think of an apartment building or any commercial building.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can buy fractions of that building as opposed to the entire thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, do it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Instantly, 24, 7.
[SPEAKER_01]: barriers and open up markets to the entire world.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to make things more efficient to transfer.
[SPEAKER_01]: Smart contracts will make compliance checks, dividend payments or settlements happen instantaneously.
[SPEAKER_01]: producing human error and overall lower operational expenses.
[SPEAKER_01]: So for example, think of if a tenant pays rent, a portion that can automatically be sent to a fractional owner of that apartment building.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you can, you don't have to open an account at a fidelity or a shrob.
[SPEAKER_01]: You can actually own the asset in a cold wallet or however you want.
[SPEAKER_01]: and it can be transferred right then.
[SPEAKER_01]: Think of when you sell an asset, you have to wait a day, you want to sell your stock, you have to wait a day for that money to settle.
[SPEAKER_01]: This can happen pretty instantaneously.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now ultimately it's going to be about come down to the risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the challenges.
[SPEAKER_01]: limited interoperability, meaning what's the standard blockchain network and how does that interface with traditional legacy infrastructure?
[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to be a challenge.
[SPEAKER_01]: Legal frameworks, who's country does do these assets live under when it comes to the law?
[SPEAKER_01]: And then liquidity concerns.
[SPEAKER_01]: So just because it can be fractionalized and put it on a blockchain doesn't mean that there's clarity on the quality of the asset and enough buyers to really go and pay for it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So there was a lot of challenges here, but it's definitely the road ahead.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just probably gonna take another decade or two for this to really mature in a big way.
[SPEAKER_01]: And frankly, this is where the most value within the crypto space comes from.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, let's take a live call.
[SPEAKER_01]: Will and San Diego wants to talk about who, I, L, M, N, which is, if I remember correctly, that is Alumina.
[SPEAKER_01]: Alumina, the owner looking to buy it.
[SPEAKER_06]: Yes.
[SPEAKER_06]: No, I'm looking to buy it.
[SPEAKER_06]: I've owned it in the past.
[SPEAKER_06]: went down.
[SPEAKER_06]: So now I'm looking at it again.
[SPEAKER_06]: What do you think?
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm trying to remember, is this the one that made a really bad acquisition?
[SPEAKER_01]: Try to remember why I just kind of feel from grace.
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember this made some sort of an acquisition.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think around DNA testing, it escapes me exactly the details.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I say, remember that, yeah, earnings fell pretty dramatically from $5.91 and $20.21.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only 87 cents in 2023.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, so it's the bounce back to $450 this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let me look at its balance sheet because that's that's a big factor here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, good balance sheet.
[SPEAKER_01]: Minimal debt.
[SPEAKER_01]: free cash flow a little less than a billion dollars that is approaching a new all-time high.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a good thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Return equity is 60%.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: No dividend in which is fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: And let me take a look here.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is interesting.
[SPEAKER_01]: Look at the chart because I want to see what type of strength.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's starting to, yeah, it's starting to find some, find it's footing.
[SPEAKER_01]: valuation is fine, enterprise value to even the brighter round, 12 or 13, kind of the low end of where it's historically traded.
[SPEAKER_01]: And earnings is just a bounce back to $4.84 next year, so it's a bottom market multiple based on where it's at.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm gonna give this one, honestly, a thumbs up.
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's cheap, but it's reasonable that reasonably value with a good balance sheet, good profitability, rising free cash flow.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it looks good, you know, it's taking that cash flow.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's starting to buy back shares as of late.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it hasn't done that really in its entire existence.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now it's starting to retire shares and figure out what to do with that nice cash flow.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm gonna give Alumina a thumbs up, I L, M in.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call, interesting one.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's drop in another, call a question now.
[SPEAKER_00]: If I don't get from New York, thank you for all that you do.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm calling about stock, ticker, T-A-C.
[SPEAKER_00]: It is an energy play and the reason why I'm looking into this is because as I listen to the great advice that you guys will give on the podcast, I'm looking for another picks and shovels, but I'm also looking for something that is not a U.S. stock.
[SPEAKER_00]: So from fidelity, I got Tom with the stock is an energy play in Canada.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I did hear it from, you know, an Instagram investor, so that's why I'm getting like some other professional advice, but I see that's returned of equity is in the negative.
[SPEAKER_00]: I see that they have a lot of debt to the guy was saying that it was more of a trade rather than investment, but I just want to know your two cents and thank you very much.
[SPEAKER_00]: Have a good day.
[SPEAKER_01]: But this is transalta and this is really more of a utility, okay, and it's gone up dramatically.
[SPEAKER_01]: I could see why it would be a trade, but I'm not seeing the requisite growth in earnings.
[SPEAKER_01]: to really justify this earnings net this year so stuff got fifty eight percent which is nice but then drop fifty two percent next year down to twenty cents as a sixteen dollar and eighty six cents stock.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now I'm assuming this is some sort of optimism around AI infrastructure demand.
[SPEAKER_01]: and the demand for natural gas, and it looks like they have a lot of that exposure, but why is it not translating to analyst estimate updates?
[SPEAKER_01]: God need that big question.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, as a trade, sure that the momentum is good.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's clearly in the AI, it's an AI trade, and that's a way it's acting, and you have to treat it as such.
[SPEAKER_01]: If you want to buy it for a trade, sure, but the fundamentals do not support this from a cash flow perspective, they have a lot of debt, they have negative return equity, so this is not a buying hold.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a trade at best.
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the call.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about gold and equities.
[SPEAKER_01]: Gold is acting like it's the 1970s, and equities are acting like it's the 1980s.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's a difficult to see both rising together.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the question is why?
[SPEAKER_01]: The simple explanation is liquidity.
[SPEAKER_01]: Governments, central banks continue to roll out stimulus to expand budgets, austerity is nowhere to be seen really around the world.
[SPEAKER_01]: Globally, no real place to hide, set four, harder assets like gold, it's over.
[SPEAKER_01]: So liquidity can drive that trade as well as speculation in markets.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so clearly, massive liquidity has something to do with it.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even the Federal Reserve, currently they say policy is mildly restrictive even though rates are lower than normal GDP growth.
[SPEAKER_01]: And households in general are also finding new ways to gain exposure to assets.
[SPEAKER_01]: A big factor in this is apps.
[SPEAKER_01]: Make it easier to think of Robin.
[SPEAKER_01]: I see Robinhood app.
[SPEAKER_01]: Talks about how much leverage you can have, or how much buying power you can have.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's like a game.
[SPEAKER_01]: And frankly, I think that's a big part of what is happening here is that these,
[SPEAKER_01]: Aversion Vesters are looking at that and saying, well, I can, I'm more money to play with.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's naturally adding more leverages, system which creates more risk.
[SPEAKER_01]: But when the liquidity is good, like I said, decking,
[SPEAKER_01]: feel fine.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the hyperfinancialization is boosting the overall demand for risk assets.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even a while, while a, there's a consistent bid for safer assets, debasement assets, like golden silver.
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think the real story is, this is a fundamental transformational change in the global financial system that is
[SPEAKER_01]: just beginning.
[SPEAKER_01]: It started with the Ukraine War and the United States confiscating Russian treasuries.
[SPEAKER_01]: And since then, Central Banks globally have been buying gold handover fist.
[SPEAKER_01]: And now you're starting to see the average investor jump in as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: That narrative has begun.
[SPEAKER_01]: Demand for Gold ETFs is up nine fold this year.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the third quarter alone saw the highest ever ETF flows into gold.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the kind of slow, dribble into the gold market from Central Banks has now been, has turned into a flood.
[SPEAKER_01]: from the retail investor, they not only has a bunch of buying power, but is also seeing the fiscal deficit that is not stopping and they're under allocated.
[SPEAKER_01]: Only about 2% of portfolios are in gold, so there's still a lot, lot more.
[SPEAKER_01]: room for those portfolios for portfolioications to rise.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now a lot of you might say it's inflation.
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think it's inflation either because the bond market is signaling that inflation is still going to be two and a half three percent of a long term.
[SPEAKER_01]: What I actually think it is is geopolitical concerns.
[SPEAKER_01]: see what's happening in the Middle East, see what's happening in Russian and Ukraine.
[SPEAKER_01]: See what's happening with our domestic political situation as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that is really the answer here, is that liquidity is driving both assets, but only one is being really driven by the rise in geopolitical returns and that is cool.
[SPEAKER_01]: This is Invest Talk.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Justin Klein.
[SPEAKER_01]: We have one goal here.
[SPEAKER_01]: Each and every week they help you achieve your own version of financial freedom and our work continues after this final break.
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's get your questions in right now on Invest Talk at 8.89 in chart.
[SPEAKER_02]: millions of downloads have proved there's value in every invest talk podcast, call any time, 24-7, invest talk, 888-99 chart.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now this is invest talk, but we don't just talk about investing here.
[SPEAKER_01]: We also try to educate you more broadly.
[SPEAKER_01]: making sure that you are well-rounded in your financial literacy.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not just getting a stock tip or understanding what's going on in one particular sector, but having a basis for smart financial decisions, and that starts with savings habits, spending habits, understanding good debt versus bad debt,
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's a new study from the principal financial group.
[SPEAKER_01]: And what they looked at were different economies.
[SPEAKER_01]: And what they found was that there's a direct link between improving financial literacy and lower loan defaults and stronger economic growth.
[SPEAKER_01]: Financial literacy is not just important on an individual level.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's important on a national and even global level as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: And the reason for that is because when governments are trying to create a financial outcome like monetary policy, raising your lowering interest rates, people who are financially
[SPEAKER_01]: and how to take advantage of it, and how to avoid fraud, for example, how to avoid getting taken advantage of by borrowing for the wrong people or borrowing at a higher rate than they should.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so less money is sucked out of the real economy and into the financial economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's one problem we have here domestically is that too much of our economy has been
[SPEAKER_01]: Think of all the businesses that all the people that their businesses refinancing loans, which is certainly needed, but it shouldn't be the majority of our economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: Think, I mean, the activity and everything surrounding creating financial transactions and financialization of businesses, private equity, things like that.
[SPEAKER_01]: The real economy, real growth, is based on people keeping more of their income and spending it wisely, spending it on productive assets, productive endeavors for their life and their family.
[SPEAKER_01]: And financial literacy allows you to do that.
[SPEAKER_01]: But what they found was each one percentage point improvement in financial literacy levels, equates to a 2.78 point fall in household loan default rates.
[SPEAKER_01]: The direct link.
[SPEAKER_01]: The more you are financially literate, the better chance you have of, not falling into bankruptcy.
[SPEAKER_01]: A 10 point boost in financial literacy levels,
[SPEAKER_01]: Equates to a potential boost to GDP over and above expected rates of point three percentage points over a four year period for you Then sound like a lot Put in a economy.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's many trillions.
[SPEAKER_01]: For example, like our economy That equates to big gains.
[SPEAKER_01]: Remember, they build on themselves Now what countries dominate the financial literacy
[SPEAKER_01]: ranking as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Singapore is number one.
[SPEAKER_01]: And go look at their economic growth over the last couple decades.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's very, very strong.
[SPEAKER_01]: Who also are in the top 10 Hong Kong, South Korea, and Thailand.
[SPEAKER_01]: Where is the US rank?
[SPEAKER_01]: 7th UK is 10th.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now where are countries falling off?
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's mainly when the employers are not picking up their end of the market.
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not
[SPEAKER_01]: bringing financial education along with your 401K, for example, that is a big problem.
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, I love this study because the messages make sure you are financially literate, you're well-rounded, it's not just about getting the latest stock to it.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Justin Klein, and today's show, maybe think about your own financial picture in any way,
[SPEAKER_01]: Social security, strategy, whatever that is.
[SPEAKER_01]: We offer a free portfolio review, help bring clarity and confidence to whatever you're doing.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just head over to besttalk.com, click on the portfolio view button, just get your whole time with me.
[SPEAKER_01]: You think, really listening, we encourage you to tell your friends of family about a free podcast down those, which you can find anytime at iTunes or Spotify and watch our videos over on our YouTube channel as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Be sure to rate and review on iTunes.
[SPEAKER_01]: In the pen and thinking, should success.
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the best stock, good name.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Specifically, nothing sets shall be taken to be investment advice, or shell statements on this program be considered and offered to buy or sell security.
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